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<v Speaker 1>Thomas Frye joining us from the future. Well, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>maybe you're a little you know, further east than I am.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. Good to see you, Thomas, Yeah, on

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<v Speaker 2>your show again. So you sent me.

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<v Speaker 1>This paper that you'd written about a robot changing a diaper.

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<v Speaker 1>And when you say it like that, like, because I

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<v Speaker 1>said this earlier in the show, when will a robot

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<v Speaker 1>be able to change a diaper? And it sounds like

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<v Speaker 1>a simple proposition when you think about when you had

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<v Speaker 1>to take those life skills classes and they gave you

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<v Speaker 1>the doll and you had to do the triangle for

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<v Speaker 1>the diaper, and you're like, sure, a robot could do that.

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<v Speaker 1>But then once you become a parent, you realize that

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<v Speaker 1>it's like trying to put clothes on a fighting you know, octopus,

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<v Speaker 1>angry octopus, and that's pooped everywhere, you know. So there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of different layers to it. Why is it important? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>what kind of milestone is it for a robot to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to change a human baby diaper?

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<v Speaker 3>Well?

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<v Speaker 4>See, I I view this as kind of the turning

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<v Speaker 4>test of humanoid robots because it requires, uh these tactical skills,

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<v Speaker 4>It requires the ability having adaptability and the resources to

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<v Speaker 4>deal with the screaming child, and and lots of variables

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<v Speaker 4>that normally don't get programmed into something like this. And

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<v Speaker 4>then also the ability to gain the trust of the mother.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's the key thing here.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that if if you don't get the mother's trust,

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<v Speaker 4>they will never buy a robot for their their home.

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<v Speaker 3>UH. And so this is one of the.

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<v Speaker 4>Kind of the ultimate with litmus tests. I think of

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<v Speaker 4>of of a robot like this, they can they handle

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<v Speaker 4>all of the different things, the the the different UH

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<v Speaker 4>smells and the different chaotic moments and all of that

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<v Speaker 4>and UH and still.

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<v Speaker 3>To perform a flawless job.

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<v Speaker 1>So you just mentioned the touring test, and what is

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<v Speaker 1>the touring test? And t you r I n G

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<v Speaker 1>is what we're talking about? Alan Touring?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, Alan Turing in around nineteen fifty he was just

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<v Speaker 4>asking this question can machines think? And so he came

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<v Speaker 4>up with this Turing test. And the crude form of

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<v Speaker 4>the test was as you go into a room and

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<v Speaker 4>it has two curtains, and behind one curtain is a

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<v Speaker 4>computer and behind the other curtains a person. You start

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<v Speaker 4>asking questions and the computer can answer and the human

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<v Speaker 4>can answer, and at a certain point in time, as

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<v Speaker 4>the computer evolves, then he sees surmised that you wouldn't

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<v Speaker 4>be able to tell the difference between which is the

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<v Speaker 4>computer and which is the human. And so we've used

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<v Speaker 4>that kind of that Turing test as kind of a

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<v Speaker 4>litmus test for how far we've advanced with computer technology.

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<v Speaker 4>And clearly we've passed the Turing test and several different categories,

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<v Speaker 4>but there's a lot more categories to go in the future, because.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean chat GPT can have a conversation with you

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<v Speaker 1>that is, you know, realistic enough that if you truly

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<v Speaker 1>didn't know that it was a computer, you maybe could

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<v Speaker 1>be fooled until they tell you something wrack adodle. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, but I think that's an interesting standard. So

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<v Speaker 1>to be passable, let's just call it passables. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>good way to put it. To be passable as a

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<v Speaker 1>human in a conversation with robotics, What is it about,

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<v Speaker 1>specifically the physical part of changing a diaper that would

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<v Speaker 1>have to be addressed that we haven't already addressed, if

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<v Speaker 1>you know what I.

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<v Speaker 4>Mean, Yeah, I think it's all the variables a child

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<v Speaker 4>is squirming and screaming and crying and fussing and around

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<v Speaker 4>and all of this is kind of delicate, little little pieces,

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<v Speaker 4>so you don't want to hurt the child, you don't

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<v Speaker 4>want to pinch the skin.

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<v Speaker 3>There's all kinds of things that can go wrong in

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<v Speaker 3>the middle.

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<v Speaker 4>Of all this, and for people this becomes real high

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<v Speaker 4>anxiety situation.

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<v Speaker 3>At times.

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<v Speaker 4>Most of the time it's fairly straightforward and you can

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<v Speaker 4>change diaper, zip, zip, zip, and you're finished. Other times

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<v Speaker 4>it turns, especially when you're in public trying to do something.

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<v Speaker 1>I think every parent has at least one story of

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<v Speaker 1>that time my kid pooped all over me in public.

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<v Speaker 1>I think everybody has at least one of those in

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<v Speaker 1>their arsenal. If you're a parent, you know, and then

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<v Speaker 1>you're in the in the you know, in the room trying.

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<v Speaker 1>I absolutely understand that. So how far are we away?

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<v Speaker 1>Because I have seen some videos lately that have been

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<v Speaker 1>so realistic that I have to go back and I'm like,

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<v Speaker 1>is this AI?

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<v Speaker 2>Is it? Is it real?

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<v Speaker 1>I hate that AI video has has gotten to the

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<v Speaker 1>point where it truly is impossible to tell if what you're.

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<v Speaker 2>Seeing is real or not. And where are we in

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<v Speaker 2>the robotics?

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<v Speaker 1>Process right now, Like, how close are we to having

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<v Speaker 1>a robot that has just a soft enough touch that

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<v Speaker 1>a mom would feel confident giving her baby to that robot.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, to put this in perspective, there's over one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>companies throughout the world that have received funding for creating

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<v Speaker 4>humanoid robots, so it's not possible to know exactly where

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<v Speaker 4>all of them are and what stages are at. But

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<v Speaker 4>in some of the videos I've seen of optimists, that's

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<v Speaker 4>the Elon Musk robot that it was creating.

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<v Speaker 3>The way the hand.

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<v Speaker 4>Moves and is manipulated, and everything seems very It has

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<v Speaker 4>some very delicate skills tied in with it. I think

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<v Speaker 4>I think at least by two thousand and thirty, if

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<v Speaker 4>not sooner, he'll be able to accomplish something like this.

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<v Speaker 4>But again, the real litmus test ends up being is

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<v Speaker 4>the mother going to trust the robot to do it?

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<v Speaker 4>And I think there's a lot of barriers there. If

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<v Speaker 4>the robot just screws up in one way or another,

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<v Speaker 4>if the kid gets pinched one time, then they're going

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<v Speaker 4>to be very hesitant to try it again.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh well, I got to tell you, I'm already thinking

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<v Speaker 1>of a science fiction thriller where in the future there

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<v Speaker 1>is a world and robots are starting to become a

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<v Speaker 1>normal part and then this extremist organization who doesn't want

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<v Speaker 1>any kind of robotics goes in and actually kills a

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<v Speaker 1>baby and frames a robot so they can prevent more

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<v Speaker 1>robots from being purchased. That's my new just popped into

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<v Speaker 1>my head right now, So if anybody wants to write

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<v Speaker 1>that with me, let me know. But that's how my

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<v Speaker 1>brain works. Mandy, and I think this is a valid question, Thomas,

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<v Speaker 1>How long before baby pas all over the robot? These

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<v Speaker 1>robots are going to have to be durable, waterproof, They're

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<v Speaker 1>going to.

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<v Speaker 2>Have to be able to function in a urinated on state.

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<v Speaker 4>Correct, right, They're going to be asked to do all

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<v Speaker 4>kinds of crazy things, not just infant care, but elder care,

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<v Speaker 4>managing people, and.

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<v Speaker 3>Therapeutic situations where.

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<v Speaker 4>PTSD issues are occurring, as people that are screaming and

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<v Speaker 4>yelling and probably narcotics are involved, and you have to

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<v Speaker 4>get somebody off of their the high that they're on.

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<v Speaker 4>You can start going through a list of all kinds

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<v Speaker 4>of psychotic situations that they may be thrust into, and

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<v Speaker 4>then you can start seeing the total kind of chaos

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<v Speaker 4>that they're going to have to contend with. I think

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<v Speaker 4>there's going to be lots of challenging situations. I'm not

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<v Speaker 4>sure this is very straightforward at all.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let me ask you this, because, like when I

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<v Speaker 1>think about this and I think about what robots could

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<v Speaker 1>look like in the near future, we think of humanoid robots.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm just going to use data from Star Trek

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<v Speaker 1>Next Generation as an example, because technically he was a droid,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's okay, we're going to use him as an example.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we going to get to a place where they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to have a human skin or a circulatory system

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<v Speaker 1>exterior that is going to allow them to have a

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<v Speaker 1>true human appearance, because that's I think what freaks people out.

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<v Speaker 1>But on the flip side, you know that that could

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<v Speaker 1>solve a lot of problems for people who are lonely.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's there's so many different weird applications for.

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<v Speaker 3>This, right I think.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the skin is going to change quite a

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<v Speaker 4>bit over time as they become more human like and lifelike,

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<v Speaker 4>and this idea of actually growing the skin on the robot,

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<v Speaker 4>I think we're going to be getting into that fairly soon.

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<v Speaker 4>So these are some of the things that we'll have

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<v Speaker 4>to contend with us as robots evolve over the next

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<v Speaker 4>forty fifty years. Keep in mind that the cars that

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<v Speaker 4>we drive today have been in development for the last

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred and twenty plus years, so it's taken that

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<v Speaker 4>long to get.

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<v Speaker 3>The cars that are this good. Now.

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<v Speaker 4>To get to a robot that is so finally refined

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<v Speaker 4>that it can handle all these human like tests, it's

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<v Speaker 4>going to take a while.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, I'm okay with that.

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<v Speaker 1>I have one more question about the robot thing, though,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is like, in my mind, if I were

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<v Speaker 1>going to have a robot caring for my child, which

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<v Speaker 1>is not a given by an stretch of the imagination, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so I would want to know that they were programmed

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<v Speaker 1>with everything like first aid, so they'd.

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<v Speaker 2>Know exactly what to do. And I was thinking to myself.

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<v Speaker 1>Like, would there be any limits to what you would

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<v Speaker 1>want your robot to know? Or do you want a

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<v Speaker 1>true know it all robot that you could go to

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<v Speaker 1>at any given moment and say, robot, you know what's

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<v Speaker 1>the flight speed of an unlaiden swallow and ask them

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<v Speaker 1>the question and get an answer so.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, how are there are you going to compartmentalize

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<v Speaker 2>that knowledge? I guess this is my question.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, if you have your five year old kid hanging

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<v Speaker 4>out with robot asking a lot of questions, you may

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<v Speaker 4>want to limit what they're willing to talk about, right right.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, that's probably a good idea. It's probably a

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<v Speaker 2>very very good idea.

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<v Speaker 1>An extraordinary number of people are hitting the text line

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<v Speaker 1>with robot sex doll conversations. What is wrong with you people?

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<v Speaker 1>But that's not what I was talking about when people

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<v Speaker 1>were lonely. I'm talking about the epidemic of loneliness in

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<v Speaker 1>this country, where it would be kind of cool to say,

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<v Speaker 1>I'd like to create a companion for me, and you

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<v Speaker 1>could program the knowledge set that that robot got, and

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<v Speaker 1>maybe you say, look, I want them to have the

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<v Speaker 1>same historical progression that I had growing up, So you

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<v Speaker 1>can almost build yourself a peer And as people get older,

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<v Speaker 1>and I mean in their eighties, late eighties, nineties, most

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<v Speaker 1>of their peer groups starts to die. And that was

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<v Speaker 1>something I learned from my late mother in law. She

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<v Speaker 1>just wanted to talk to people who understood the references,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, she wanted to talk to people who had

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<v Speaker 1>the same.

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<v Speaker 2>Cultural art that she had.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think from that perspective, it could be a

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting situation where you'd have a care you know,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a residential facility full of older people, and you

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<v Speaker 1>could literally program them to be a different friend for

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<v Speaker 1>every single person in that.

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<v Speaker 3>Place, right right?

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<v Speaker 4>And if you think about how long would it be

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<v Speaker 4>before somebody is willing to leave and go out on

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<v Speaker 4>a date with their wife or their husband and just

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<v Speaker 4>let the.

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<v Speaker 3>Robot care for the kids.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that'll be a different stage as well. Having the robot,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, prepare dinner for a room full of guests,

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<v Speaker 4>people that show up for you're having invited twelve different

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<v Speaker 4>people over for dinner and you have the robot prepare

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<v Speaker 4>everything and then clean up afterwards and do the dishes.

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<v Speaker 4>How skilled does that robot have to be to accomplish

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<v Speaker 4>all of that? And is this a humanoid robot or

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<v Speaker 4>is this just a kitchen with robotic arms that are

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<v Speaker 4>doing most of that work.

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<v Speaker 1>I got to tell you, I want a humanoid robot,

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<v Speaker 1>at least humanoid ish, right, like those weird Honda dogs

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<v Speaker 1>with no heads. I don't want that running around my property.

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<v Speaker 1>I want something that looks more recognizable. That isn't the

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<v Speaker 1>stuff nightmares are made out of, right, I want something

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<v Speaker 1>that feels a little more rosy the robot than you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a faceless kind of droid that's I don't know, that's

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<v Speaker 1>that straddles a weird line between you know, human and

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<v Speaker 1>plastic that I wanted to somewhat be something that looks identifiable,

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<v Speaker 1>I guess.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, So if you yell at your robot dog, you

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<v Speaker 4>wanted to acknowledge that it's being yelled at.

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<v Speaker 1>It instead of it turning around and you know, flipping

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<v Speaker 1>me off. If robots are used for crime, then who

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<v Speaker 1>is responsible? These are the reason I read that question

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<v Speaker 1>because it is kind of silly, but it's not. That's

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<v Speaker 1>part of the ethical dilemma in robotics like that, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a big part of it. Can you order a robot

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<v Speaker 1>to commit a crime? You know, I don't know who's doing.

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<v Speaker 3>That, right, right? Yeah? Yeah, we we think we have

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<v Speaker 3>problems now.

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<v Speaker 4>I think we're going to get into really implicated things.

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<v Speaker 4>But when we get into a world of robots soldiers

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<v Speaker 4>and robot fighting machines, then kind of all bets are

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<v Speaker 4>off because it's not just humanoid robots it's flying robots

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<v Speaker 4>that are drones.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, That's what concerns me. That concerns me a lot more.

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<v Speaker 1>The drone technology has come so far, so fast that

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<v Speaker 1>I think drones are really the next frontier when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to warfare, more so than humanoid robots, because they're

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<v Speaker 1>way cheaper and they can be deployed right now, and

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<v Speaker 1>the kind of precision nature that drones deliver is very

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<v Speaker 1>concerning to me. I think that might be one of

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<v Speaker 1>the most end up being one of the most significant

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<v Speaker 1>weapons for the next twenty years, used by everybody, terrorists,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, everybody scares the crap out of me.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to lie, Thomas.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>And then when you start thinking about, well, what form

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<v Speaker 4>can the these robotic soldiers take, they can look like

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<v Speaker 4>a robotic snake as an example, yep, or a robotic

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<v Speaker 4>fish that goes through the water and jumps out and

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<v Speaker 4>blows up.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, Thanks for another thing to worry about fly fishing.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks so much, Thomas.

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<v Speaker 1>It's bad enough I'm not going to catch anything now

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<v Speaker 1>I have to worry about a giant fish leaping out

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<v Speaker 1>of the water and using laser eyes to mow me

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<v Speaker 1>down right there in the river.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh my god, robot fish takes your fish off the hook.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, yeah, there you go, Yeah a whole. It just

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<v Speaker 2>eats it whole. No, did you see?

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<v Speaker 4>And I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>I saw this last week. I should have found it

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<v Speaker 1>and put it on the blog today, but I forgot.

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<v Speaker 1>South Korean scientists have made tiny little nanobots that are

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<v Speaker 1>based on ants, and it's absolutely the same concept as

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<v Speaker 1>the movie Big Hero six. And I don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>you watch the Big Hero six, it's very good. But

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<v Speaker 1>the whole thing is this kid invotes these little nan robots,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course then someone steals and to use.

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<v Speaker 2>Them for evil.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's amazing to see they have these little tiny

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<v Speaker 1>almost like grains of sand or not sand rice, and

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<v Speaker 1>they can move things and they can program these little

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<v Speaker 1>robots wort collaboratively to move stuff the same way ants

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<v Speaker 1>move stuff. And I'm thinking to myself, this is crazy.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is science fiction.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they're they're coming in every every scale.

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<v Speaker 4>You can imagine every shape, every possible form, and they'll

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<v Speaker 4>have multiple capabilities that we can we can just start

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<v Speaker 4>going down a checklist.

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<v Speaker 3>Can they fly? Can they swim?

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<v Speaker 4>Right? And they jump? And they can they climb a tree?

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<v Speaker 4>Can they attach themselves to a car or a moving vehicle?

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<v Speaker 4>And that's the world we're moving into, and somehow we've

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<v Speaker 4>got to create limitations to prevent this from just totally

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<v Speaker 4>disrupting the world that we live in.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, we we've all seen the science fiction movies,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm just going to lean into it. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>when the robots take over, Yeah, it'll be fine. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>can they do any worse than we're doing right now?

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<v Speaker 1>On so many levels? So many levels. I also real quick,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to get to this before we run out

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<v Speaker 1>of time. I also linked to a story that you

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<v Speaker 1>did about kids making a move away from college and

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<v Speaker 1>yet still being able to have a successful career, and

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<v Speaker 1>I wanted to ask you about this specifically because we've

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<v Speaker 1>been talking a lot, and I know we don't ever

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<v Speaker 1>talk about politics, but there's been a lot of conversation

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<v Speaker 1>about H one B visas and immigrant labor, especially in

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<v Speaker 1>the tech.

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<v Speaker 2>Field, and things of that nature.

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<v Speaker 1>So it seems that what you're saying in this article

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<v Speaker 1>that I linked today on the blog is that there

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<v Speaker 1>are companies that are offering certifications and other things to

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<v Speaker 1>let tech minded kids who don't necessarily need to go

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<v Speaker 1>the college route, go ahead and pursue that as a career.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that what we're can I know?

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<v Speaker 4>Right right, there's lots of alternatives out there. They can

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<v Speaker 4>go to trade schools, they can do apprenticeships, they can

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<v Speaker 4>take online courses, go to community college coding boot camps,

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<v Speaker 4>and these certifications are actually becoming an alternative to college degrees.

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<v Speaker 4>And so that's becoming very interesting. And a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>them are just going straight into entrepreneurship. They're just going

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<v Speaker 4>to start their own company and run with it. And

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<v Speaker 4>so how do we credential people that have this misshmash

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<v Speaker 4>of skills that.

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<v Speaker 3>Are coming into the workforce right now?

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<v Speaker 4>Now there's this the declining birth rates and the expensive

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<v Speaker 4>tuition and the diminishing ROI that people get off going

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<v Speaker 4>to college is amounted to only thirty six percent of

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<v Speaker 4>people express confidence and higher education right now. Wow, So

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<v Speaker 4>that number keeps declining because the price keeps going up.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, we have one point seven trillion dollars in

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<v Speaker 4>student loan debt in the country and in a huge

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<v Speaker 4>portion of that, three point five million people over the

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<v Speaker 4>age of sixty still over one hundred and twenty five

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<v Speaker 4>billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a lot of money for retirement.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so this is this is a problem where we're

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<v Speaker 4>just taking money from the future, and while it enriches

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<v Speaker 4>us today, this creates this massive problem moving forward into

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<v Speaker 4>the future.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I wanted to bring up the article because I

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<v Speaker 1>think that I know people that have gone this route

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<v Speaker 1>who did.

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<v Speaker 2>Not go to high school.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, excuse me, did not go to college, but

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<v Speaker 1>got Microsoft certifications, got various network certifications, did a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of other stuff, and just went to work in tech.

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<v Speaker 1>And now at my age, so that was thirty years

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<v Speaker 1>ago before that was cool, and now they're vice president

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<v Speaker 1>level and been developing for thirty years.

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<v Speaker 2>So it is a viable pathway.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's nice that I think it's interesting because I

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<v Speaker 1>believe that Higher ed has one hundred percent done this

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<v Speaker 1>to themselves by not adapting, by continuing to cling to

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<v Speaker 1>a model that doesn't necessarily work for everyone. And now

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<v Speaker 1>it's we're going to We're going to see colleges clothes

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<v Speaker 1>with some great regularity I think over the next ten years.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think that's a good thing, and maybe they'll

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<v Speaker 1>get serious about delivering on a mission by making sure

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<v Speaker 1>that kids graduate with skills that can help them get

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<v Speaker 1>an actual job.

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<v Speaker 4>When you think of the cost of managing an entire

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<v Speaker 4>campus and the student body, and the security, and the utilities,

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<v Speaker 4>and just all of the maintenance and repair an entire

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<v Speaker 4>campus like that, these things are very expensive, and so

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<v Speaker 4>they have to charge a lot of money to maintain

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<v Speaker 4>all that, And I just I think we're at a

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<v Speaker 4>point where fewer and fewer people are.

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<v Speaker 3>Going to be willing to pay that, yep. And so we're.

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<v Speaker 4>Going to see lots of consolidations. We're going to see

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<v Speaker 4>lots of selling off of assets. Mergers are going to happen.

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<v Speaker 4>So we're going to see lots of crazy activity in

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<v Speaker 4>the academia over the next even five years. It's going

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<v Speaker 4>to happen pretty quickly.

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<v Speaker 2>Here Thomas Friar Futurists.

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<v Speaker 1>You can find him if you want him to come

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<v Speaker 1>speak to your organization about anything from the future. He

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<v Speaker 1>is available to make that happen. Thomas, good to see you,

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<v Speaker 1>my friend. I'll see you next time, all right.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks,