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<v Speaker 1>With Laurent's segle and from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin.

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<v Speaker 1>This is redefining energy today. I'm redefining energy. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about critical minerals and a particular those in

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<v Speaker 1>relation to batteries.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because there are hundreds of definition of critical minerals.

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<v Speaker 2>If you look at the Europe and the US, they

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<v Speaker 2>have a list, but of course it's not the same

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<v Speaker 2>thing on the list. And right now you've got the

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<v Speaker 2>rare earths and everybody's getting very excited about rare earths

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<v Speaker 2>between Greenland and Ukraine. And so at some point we say, look,

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<v Speaker 2>we are not specialists. We need to bring in a

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<v Speaker 2>specialist to discuss critical minerals, how critical they are.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that the word critically is quite interesting around

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<v Speaker 1>because it means different things to be people. So there's

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<v Speaker 1>critical way you define it as rare, whether it's not

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of something or good in the sense that

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<v Speaker 1>there might be a lot of us, but there are

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<v Speaker 1>only in a few countries, and those particular countries might

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<v Speaker 1>be countries that are unstable or countries that you don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to be the Panada. So it's a very interesting

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<v Speaker 1>phrase that critical resources.

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<v Speaker 2>Our guest today is Richard Ted. Richard is the chief

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<v Speaker 2>investment officer in a company called tech Met. Now tech

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<v Speaker 2>met is very interesting in the sense that it's originally

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<v Speaker 2>a joint venture between the Pentagon and Energy and Minerals Group.

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<v Speaker 2>Now it has really grown attracted a lot of new investors,

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<v Speaker 2>including Golf investors. The mission of tech met is to

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<v Speaker 2>develop a non China based supply chain in critical minerals.

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<v Speaker 2>So they've invested in Littal, nickel, cobalt, rearers, and of

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<v Speaker 2>course recycling, so there's a bit of processing as well.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to talk about all of those aspects. Before

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<v Speaker 2>we do it, I just want to make a little

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<v Speaker 2>caveat the global legion market into A twenty four was

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<v Speaker 2>ten billion dollar, the rare earth market was fifteen billion dollar,

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<v Speaker 2>the copper market was two hundred and fifty billion dollar,

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<v Speaker 2>and your market three trillion dollar.

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<v Speaker 1>So critical but niche, Well, let's bring them on the show.

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<v Speaker 2>Richard, Welcome to the show.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks, Laron, really excited to be invited on. I'm a

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<v Speaker 3>big fan of what you guys do.

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<v Speaker 2>We are a big fan of what you're doing because

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<v Speaker 2>critical materials people talk about critical matteral all the time.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of people get very heated around Joe politics,

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<v Speaker 2>rare Earth and all those criticulats. Can you please explain

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<v Speaker 2>a bit what's going on and what are those critical materials?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? I think the word critical minerals of critical materials

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<v Speaker 3>has been thrown around so much now that it's almost

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<v Speaker 3>lost meaning because everyone projects onto that phrase what they

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<v Speaker 3>wanted to mean. In the public sphere, when it's used,

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<v Speaker 3>it often leads to more confusion than clarity, you know.

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<v Speaker 3>Simply put, a critical material is something that you're worried

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<v Speaker 3>you're not going to be able to get in the

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<v Speaker 3>future at its basic level. But I think we have

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<v Speaker 3>to kind of unpack the term a little bit into

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<v Speaker 3>two kind of major categories. One is scarcity, and the

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<v Speaker 3>scarcity of minerals is simply an economic issue. The last

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<v Speaker 3>barrel of oil will have an infinite price, the last

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<v Speaker 3>kilo of lithium will have an infinite price. The price

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<v Speaker 3>mechanism over the long run will ration ultimately every resource

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<v Speaker 3>that humanity needs for economic activity. If, for example, the

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<v Speaker 3>lithium price ran up to hundreds of thousands of dollars

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<v Speaker 3>per kilo, we could set up a dle project on

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<v Speaker 3>the ocean and just process lithium from the ocean because

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<v Speaker 3>it would be economic to do so. So the price

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<v Speaker 3>mechanism in the long run rations everything, and therefore no

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<v Speaker 3>mineral is critical in the sense that we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>run out of it. However, certain critical minerals are crucial

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<v Speaker 3>for certain new economic and technological applications, most obviously electric

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<v Speaker 3>vehicles and lithium ion batteries. And the reason some critical

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<v Speaker 3>minerals like lithium are being defined as such now is

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<v Speaker 3>that they are needed in ever greater quantities because of

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<v Speaker 3>booming demand because of an s curve adoption of a

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<v Speaker 3>new technology, and they're having to grow off a very

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<v Speaker 3>very low base. The lithium market before the EV boom

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<v Speaker 3>was just a couple one hundred thousand tons a year,

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<v Speaker 3>and now we're talking by twenty thirty it needs to

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<v Speaker 3>be a three million ton of year market. So there

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<v Speaker 3>is a concern around the ability of the production side

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<v Speaker 3>to keep up with the demand growth. There's a sense

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<v Speaker 3>that as we scale evs, will we have enough units

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<v Speaker 3>of lithium to meet the consumer demand. That makes it

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<v Speaker 3>critical in one sense, but actually the true criticality in

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<v Speaker 3>the West about these materials is that there's plenty of

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<v Speaker 3>lithium available to America and Europe in parts of the

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<v Speaker 3>world where we can go and build minds quite easily.

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<v Speaker 3>But you can't put dirt into a battery. You have

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<v Speaker 3>to put a specialty chemical into a battery. And what's

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<v Speaker 3>really critical about things like lithium and nickel and cobol

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<v Speaker 3>is that they've got to be processed and refined into

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<v Speaker 3>usable specialty chemicals which can then be put into batteries.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's that part of the supply chain which has

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<v Speaker 3>been up completely and utterly concentrated within China and in

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<v Speaker 3>the context of geopolitical tensions and new trade wars, and

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<v Speaker 3>there has been a lot of newsflow in the last

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<v Speaker 3>few weeks around this. It's about the West's ability to

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<v Speaker 3>have control over its own own industrial destiny, to be

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<v Speaker 3>able to produce the specialty chemicals that these critical minerals

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<v Speaker 3>get turned into insufficient quantities for their own manufacturing of

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<v Speaker 3>their own ebs without having to go to China to

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<v Speaker 3>get the ingredients. Because China, as it has shown, is

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<v Speaker 3>quite willing and able to use its control over these

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<v Speaker 3>supply chains to turn off the taps and basically create

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<v Speaker 3>leverage over Western companies and Western governments.

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<v Speaker 1>So Richard, really that's a brilliant beginning, and there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot there that you've said. I'd love to just sort

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<v Speaker 1>of dig in a little bit into, first and foremost,

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<v Speaker 1>not the processing side, but the mining side, because if

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<v Speaker 1>I understand when I look at the Chinese and if

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<v Speaker 1>I look at what they've done, they control the whole

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<v Speaker 1>value chain. That's the reality of it. And as you

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<v Speaker 1>describe them, these are critical materials. Now, let's go back

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<v Speaker 1>to the mining side, and I'd love to hear what

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<v Speaker 1>worries you in terms of materials. Which materials you go, Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>my god, we're gonna have a shit oritage of that

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<v Speaker 1>twenty thirty.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm going to just be kind of quite straightforward this one,

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<v Speaker 3>and I'm going to pick the lowest hanging fruit and

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<v Speaker 3>talk about lithium again, because I think lithium is the

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<v Speaker 3>one which illustrates the interplay of supply demand, economics and

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<v Speaker 3>geopolitics the best. We need about three million tons per

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<v Speaker 3>annum production of lithium by twenty thirty to meet the

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<v Speaker 3>conservative demand projections of how much lithium we need to

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<v Speaker 3>build the number of batteries that are being planned to

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<v Speaker 3>be put into electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and

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<v Speaker 3>let's not forget the new markets emerging in the field

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<v Speaker 3>of drones and robots like the Optimus robot of Tesla.

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<v Speaker 3>Lithium price ran up, as we all know, to a

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<v Speaker 3>very very high level in twenty twenty two and then

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<v Speaker 3>has crashed back down to around ten thousand dollars a ton.

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<v Speaker 3>That crash has largely been engineered by the Chinese, who

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<v Speaker 3>brought on stream some very marginal sources of lithium through

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<v Speaker 3>lipidolite mining domestically within China, which are very low grade mines,

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<v Speaker 3>very high cost, very hard to make any money out

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<v Speaker 3>of them. And so we're now in a lithium market where,

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<v Speaker 3>at ten thousand dollars a ton lithium carbon and equivalent price,

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<v Speaker 3>very very few if any of the Western projects or

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<v Speaker 3>the projects, let's say that are outside of Chinese hands,

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<v Speaker 3>that are trying to be developed in Canada, in the US,

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<v Speaker 3>in Latin America, in Africa, in Europe that is below

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<v Speaker 3>the incentive price that private capital markets in the West

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<v Speaker 3>where investors are going to get the IRRs they need

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<v Speaker 3>to go and back those projects. So without an increase

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<v Speaker 3>in the lithium price, over the next eighteen months. We're

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<v Speaker 3>going to have a tremendous shortage of lithium in twenty

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<v Speaker 3>thirty because the mines that need to be built to

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<v Speaker 3>satisfy that demand to break ground now, because the lead

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<v Speaker 3>time to get them into production is quite long. So

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<v Speaker 3>if I'm worried about any critical minerals shortages at this

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<v Speaker 3>point in time, it's lithium. And the challenge is that

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<v Speaker 3>China is doing this deliberately to hamstring and kind of

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<v Speaker 3>handcuff the options that the West will have in the

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<v Speaker 3>future to determine its own industrial policies with this technology.

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<v Speaker 3>And so we in the West and particularly the United States,

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<v Speaker 3>which is leading the charge in all of this, governments

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<v Speaker 3>have to work hand in glove with the private sector

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<v Speaker 3>to invest counter cyclicly and fight back against China and

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<v Speaker 3>start to stand up some of these lithium minds now

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<v Speaker 3>during this bear market, while prices are depressed, so that

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<v Speaker 3>we are not caught shorthanded when the inevitable next upswing

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<v Speaker 3>in the market occurs.

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<v Speaker 1>Can I just make a point, as you talk about

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<v Speaker 1>opsing in the market, I mean, if lithium prices go

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<v Speaker 1>back up, there'll be no upswing in the market, because

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<v Speaker 1>what you're doing is you're making the batteries more expensive,

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<v Speaker 1>which means that you're pushing evs out. So my view,

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<v Speaker 1>i'd actually take a view of that, we're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to see lithium prices going up.

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<v Speaker 3>The question is, how are you going to get three

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<v Speaker 3>million tons a year of lithium onto the market at

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<v Speaker 3>ten thousand dollars a ton. Where's it going to come from?

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<v Speaker 3>How many minds can profitably produce lithium at that level.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's a very good question. So then what you're

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<v Speaker 1>actually sort of saying is that actually the EV race

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<v Speaker 1>is going to slow down.

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<v Speaker 3>Something's got to give. The problem with commodity markets in

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<v Speaker 3>general is that the supply response is very inelastic in

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<v Speaker 3>the short term to the movement in the price. In

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<v Speaker 3>the long term, the mining industry generally is able to

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<v Speaker 3>respond to higher price incentives. And there is a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of good news in the West. The dle revolution, which

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<v Speaker 3>is the kind of equivalent of the racking revolution in oil,

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<v Speaker 3>is already here. It's real. Exon is building DL plants

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<v Speaker 3>in the Smackover formation. In America, tech met is building

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<v Speaker 3>a DL plant on the salt and sea. DL is

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<v Speaker 3>being stood up in Argentina as well, and these are

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<v Speaker 3>much easier, simpler, lower cost projects to bring on stream

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<v Speaker 3>relative to large Spogyman projects, which are traditional minds, which

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<v Speaker 3>then have to be fed into very capital intensive hydroxide refineries.

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<v Speaker 1>Richard, just for the non technical people that are listening

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<v Speaker 1>to this, could you explain what DA is and really

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<v Speaker 1>just in Layman's terms, just explain the revolution that's going

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<v Speaker 1>on in mining, because I really like your Alan.

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<v Speaker 4>Sure what's going from the oil and gas would go

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<v Speaker 4>to shale. It's the exact same thing in mine exactly.

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<v Speaker 4>DLE stands for direct lithium extraction. Prior to DLE, there

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<v Speaker 4>were two ways to get lithium into the market. One

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<v Speaker 4>was to exploit Hoigh rock lithium sources, particularly a mineral

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<v Speaker 4>called spodymy, which you dig out of the ground, you concentrate,

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<v Speaker 4>and then you have to put it through a relatively

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<v Speaker 4>energy and carbon intensive refining process to turn it into

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<v Speaker 4>lithium hydroxide, which then typically goes into nickel based batteries.

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<v Speaker 4>The alternative source of lithium, and the lowest cost source

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<v Speaker 4>of lithium for years, has been the brines from the

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<v Speaker 4>lithium triangle down Latin America, Chili, Bolivia, Argentina, where the

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<v Speaker 4>method of extraction is to pump lithium brines that are

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<v Speaker 4>quite high in concentration in lithium and put them in

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<v Speaker 4>huge ponds and evaporate them over time to kind of

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<v Speaker 4>pre concentrate them and then process them into lithium carbonate.

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<v Speaker 4>And it's very environmentally problematic and there's a huge kind

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<v Speaker 4>of lead time from pumping the water out of the

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<v Speaker 4>grounds to actually having a deliverable ton of lithium at

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<v Speaker 4>the other end. So direct lithium extraction is where you

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<v Speaker 4>take lithium bearing brines and you essentially run them through

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<v Speaker 4>let's just call it a chemical plant for now, and

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<v Speaker 4>within a few literally a few hours, you run it

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<v Speaker 4>through a system where the Darly technology selectively strips the

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<v Speaker 4>lithium from the brine to produce a lithium chloride, and

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<v Speaker 4>from there it's a very simple step to produce lithium

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<v Speaker 4>carbonate and then you can, of course, you can go

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<v Speaker 4>on to produce a hydroxide as well if you wish

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<v Speaker 4>from there, and that's a huge revolution in lithium production

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<v Speaker 4>because it allows a much shorter cycle from extracting the

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<v Speaker 4>brine to delivering the chemical and it's a completely closed

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<v Speaker 4>loop system because the lithium depleted brine is then reinjected

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<v Speaker 4>back underground and can often recharge with lithium once it's

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<v Speaker 4>back underground. So the dly revolution not only going to

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<v Speaker 4>be enabled the West to scale lithium quickly, it is

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<v Speaker 4>also a very low carbon, low environmental footprint way of

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<v Speaker 4>doing so is a really important revolutionary step in the

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<v Speaker 4>lithium industry. There are a lot of skeptics out there

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<v Speaker 4>who have said it's not going to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>And the fact that the likes of Rio Tinto, Exxon

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<v Speaker 3>equinor slumberget Arcadian, which has seemed to be quiet seem

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<v Speaker 3>to of course become part of Rio Tinto are all

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<v Speaker 3>doing it is proving the naysayers wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>You name tech Met, tech Mets your company. I like

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<v Speaker 2>to go back with you through the creation of tech Met,

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<v Speaker 2>because you're one of the few companies who have the

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<v Speaker 2>US government as shoulder or sponsor. Probably would explain, so

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<v Speaker 2>go back to its creation and there's thesis around it,

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<v Speaker 2>but probably we took already quite a note around the

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<v Speaker 2>thesis and how you've delivered so far, because when I

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<v Speaker 2>look at your activities. I see you have a mine

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<v Speaker 2>ran dow or so, and you know your investment in lithium.

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<v Speaker 2>So can you put this together please?

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<v Speaker 3>So technetous sort of technology metals. And we define a

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<v Speaker 3>technology metal as a metal where the demand for that

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<v Speaker 3>metal is being driven by a technology adoption. Think about

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<v Speaker 3>an S curve adoption of electric vehicles that is driving

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<v Speaker 3>a kind of one time phacist in the demand for

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<v Speaker 3>certain critical minerals. That's a definition that we tie to it,

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<v Speaker 3>and particularly like our focus is on lithium, nickel, cobalt, vanadium, tin,

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<v Speaker 3>and rare earth elements. We created the company in twenty seventeen.

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<v Speaker 3>We're not structured as a fund. We're structured as a

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<v Speaker 3>permanent capital vehicle, which makes us quite unique relative to

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<v Speaker 3>some of the other private equity players in the space.

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<v Speaker 3>And very early on we engaged with the US government

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<v Speaker 3>and in December of twenty twenty, we closed our first

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<v Speaker 3>significant investment from the United States government through an agency

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<v Speaker 3>called the International Development Finance Corporation, which is a federal

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<v Speaker 3>agency of the US government which used to be called OPIC,

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<v Speaker 3>and under the first Trump administration, was given a new

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<v Speaker 3>mandate from Congress with a lot more money, a much

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<v Speaker 3>broader investment mandate, including the ability to do equity and

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<v Speaker 3>to have a much more America first policy orientation in

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<v Speaker 3>the way it deployed its capital, and so its investment

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<v Speaker 3>into tech Met was its first ever equity investment. And

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<v Speaker 3>really the purpose of the US government and the Trump

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<v Speaker 3>administration backing tech Met initially was because they had the

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<v Speaker 3>foresight to see this big geopolitical issue coming down the

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<v Speaker 3>pike and it's something that we needed to start to

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<v Speaker 3>address and challenge. We're not solely backed by the US government.

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<v Speaker 3>We also have a huge amount of private capital behind us,

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<v Speaker 3>including large scale family offices, institutional investors, and most recently

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<v Speaker 3>the Katari Investment Authority. We've had two subsequent investments under

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<v Speaker 3>the Biden administration, and so we're very much a bipartisan

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<v Speaker 3>topic amongst Washington. Critical minerals and the fight against China

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<v Speaker 3>is something that the whole of America is behind. It's

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<v Speaker 3>something that we continue to work with the US government

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<v Speaker 3>on very very closely, and we're really excited about working

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<v Speaker 3>with the new Trump administration to do more and quicker

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<v Speaker 3>and more aggressively because the Chinese stranglehold over the critical

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<v Speaker 3>minerals supply chain has increased, not decreased, and therefore we

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<v Speaker 3>need to fight back even harder to make sure that

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<v Speaker 3>America command its own destiny over its own industrial future.

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<v Speaker 1>Just one thing on the whole thing up, I can

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<v Speaker 1>actually just be really take the exact tops of you,

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<v Speaker 1>which is too late. Game's over. You can compete in

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<v Speaker 1>any of the battery it met us, and the reason

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<v Speaker 1>is is because China has the whole value chain, so

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<v Speaker 1>you can try and catch up, but it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a very very expensive ride. And the market power

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<v Speaker 1>of the brand names, the technology it's ald with them.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I would respectfully take the other side of

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<v Speaker 3>that argument. Never ever bet against America. America has some

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<v Speaker 3>of the most incredible innovative technology businesses in the world.

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<v Speaker 3>It's got the deepest capital markets, it's got a powerful

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<v Speaker 3>unified government capable of strong action, and it's going to

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<v Speaker 3>take time to catch up with the Chinese. I concede

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<v Speaker 3>that the Chinese have had a twenty year head start.

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<v Speaker 3>But when America chooses to do something, it's like a

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<v Speaker 3>sleeping giant, and when it wakes up, it can mobilize

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<v Speaker 3>at an extraordinary scale. So there is a battery supply

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<v Speaker 3>chain that is being stood up in America, and we

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<v Speaker 3>will see it through to the end because we have

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<v Speaker 3>no choice in the West if we want to have

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<v Speaker 3>any control over the future technologies that are going to

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<v Speaker 3>dominate the twenty first century, IE lithium ion batteries, which

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<v Speaker 3>are not going to be just about electric vehicles. They're

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<v Speaker 3>going to be about drone technologies, which are super important

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<v Speaker 3>for defense purposes. They're going to be about robots and automation,

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<v Speaker 3>which is going to be essential for economic productivity. The

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<v Speaker 3>US absolutely needs to have control over its own destiny

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<v Speaker 3>in this area, and we need to reduce the leverage

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<v Speaker 3>in the international system that China has currently. And we

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<v Speaker 3>are very very encouraged by what we're hearing from the

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<v Speaker 3>new Trump administration that we're going to accelerate this fight

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<v Speaker 3>against China, not decelerate.

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<v Speaker 2>When I read the news, and again I don't know

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<v Speaker 2>if it's true or not, but China has imposed export

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<v Speaker 2>controls on tungst team, tillurioma, bismuth, moule denum, and indioma.

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<v Speaker 1>And graphite, which is even more important.

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<v Speaker 2>Right the next day, reach out, your telephony is ringing,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, how is it working?

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<v Speaker 3>We actually have a tungsten mind, so we're looking to

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<v Speaker 3>ramp up production there and do our bit there. But

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<v Speaker 3>these export controls, they're kind of the first firing salvos

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<v Speaker 3>of a potential critical mineral trade war that could potentially

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<v Speaker 3>increase in scale and breadth over time, and just sort

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<v Speaker 3>of underscores how urgent it is that of how quickly

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<v Speaker 3>we need to move in the West to counteract Chinese dominance.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's clear that China is willing to use these

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<v Speaker 3>levers as ways to advantage itself in the international system

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<v Speaker 3>and in the sort of great power competition against America.

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<v Speaker 3>The good news is is that America and I should

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<v Speaker 3>say North America to include Canada here as well, because

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<v Speaker 3>there is vast geological mineral wealth right across the North

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<v Speaker 3>American continent. None of those minerals that you listed are

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<v Speaker 3>absent from North America. They're all there for the taking.

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<v Speaker 3>And so we need to radically liberate and deregulate mining

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<v Speaker 3>regulations and loosen up some of the overbearing environmental hurdles

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<v Speaker 3>that we have to jump over to stand up minds

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<v Speaker 3>precisely so we can fight back against some of these

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<v Speaker 3>export controls and take command of our own economic destiny.

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<v Speaker 2>Richard, It's not just about mining, it's also about technology.

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<v Speaker 2>So can you explain how you're not just into mining

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<v Speaker 2>but into all those new technologies.

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<v Speaker 3>Technology is the West's trump card, and it's particularly America's

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<v Speaker 3>trump card, because America's the greatest technological innovation engine on

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<v Speaker 3>planet Earth. Some of the ways we're going to fight

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<v Speaker 3>back against China I've already touched on, For example, the

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<v Speaker 3>DLE revolution. The company that we've invested in Energy Source

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<v Speaker 3>Minerals with its ILIAD platform, which is the most advanced

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<v Speaker 3>DLE technology in the West, is now extremely important because

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<v Speaker 3>the Chinese have announced controls on the export of DLE sorbents,

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<v Speaker 3>and Iliad is a completely China free technology and in

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<v Speaker 3>fact a superior DLY technology to what the Chinese have

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<v Speaker 3>for directlythmic extraction. But there are other areas in which

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<v Speaker 3>American innovation is going to help in this fight back

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<v Speaker 3>against Chinese control. We have a company called Zero Advanced

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<v Speaker 3>Battery Corporation, which is looking to completely change the way

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<v Speaker 3>that we make batteries. So if you think about the

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<v Speaker 3>battery supply chain today, the stranglehold that China has is

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<v Speaker 3>not necessarily on the upstream control of the mine itself.

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<v Speaker 3>It's that middle part of the chain from how you

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<v Speaker 3>get from a dirt to a specialty chemical that you

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<v Speaker 3>can actually put into a battery. Typically, you have to

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<v Speaker 3>refine it into a ninety nine point nine to nine

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<v Speaker 3>percent pure metal salt that then has to be put

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<v Speaker 3>into a cathode precursor. The precursor has to be litheated

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<v Speaker 3>into an active cathode material. That cathode is then put

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<v Speaker 3>onto an aluminum foil using a binder. It's glued onto

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<v Speaker 3>a foil. Well, we backed a company which can basically

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<v Speaker 3>do all of that in one step. We can take

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<v Speaker 3>run of mind material and through a molten salt electroplating process,

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<v Speaker 3>directly plate out active cathode material onto a current collector

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<v Speaker 3>in one step. That's an example of fantastic American innovation

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<v Speaker 3>that will essentially sidestep China's stranglehold on this part of

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<v Speaker 3>the supply chain. And there are other there are plenty

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<v Speaker 3>of other businesses doing other great innovative work in the

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<v Speaker 3>battery area, and I think it's American technology which, when

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<v Speaker 3>it starts to scale up, will be the key to

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<v Speaker 3>some of the fight back against China. Remember, the litty

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<v Speaker 3>mind battery was invented in the West. It's a Western technology.

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<v Speaker 1>Firstly, it's not a Western technology. It comes out of Japan, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>And we've been asleep for twenty years. Everything you're saying

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<v Speaker 1>is anti Chinese pro American. It comes across and I'm saying,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a European where we live in a very

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<v Speaker 1>difficult geopolitical world where Europe being forced to move away

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<v Speaker 1>from the United States, and we have a world where

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<v Speaker 1>I know there's a great power discussion going on here,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm just saying all I've got is anti Chinese sentiment,

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<v Speaker 1>and I don't know if that's helpful.

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<v Speaker 3>I would credit the Chinese. We're doing a fantastic job.

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<v Speaker 3>Over the last twenty years. They prosecuted a fantastic leap

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<v Speaker 3>frogging strategy of not chasing ice engines and simply going

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<v Speaker 3>to degree leap frogging to dominate the next generation of

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<v Speaker 3>electric vehicle technologies. And by the way, they've done an

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<v Speaker 3>amazing job about it. So let me complement the Chinese.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, then eighty percent dominant position of producing a

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<v Speaker 3>percent of the lithumin batteries in the world. They're dominating

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<v Speaker 3>the supply chains. They have got to scale quicker and

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<v Speaker 3>better than anyone. They've looked at the entire supply chain

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<v Speaker 3>and subsidized the parts of it the need subsidizing to

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<v Speaker 3>get to scale. Okay, but are you suggesting that we

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<v Speaker 3>should therefore be supplicant to the Chinese and simply wholesale

408
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<v Speaker 3>allow them to drive the future of the ev industry

409
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<v Speaker 3>and allow Stilantis and Mercedes and BMW and Ford and

410
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<v Speaker 3>GM to just kind of go to the wall, or

411
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<v Speaker 3>to just become entirely reliant on Chinese technology, that's my

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<v Speaker 3>retort to you. Or should we also in the West

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<v Speaker 3>try and use our own skill sets and talents and

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<v Speaker 3>deep capital markets to try and innovate and also control

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<v Speaker 3>our own economic future, or should we completely just give

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<v Speaker 3>up the game.

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<v Speaker 1>Never give up. But what you have to know is

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<v Speaker 1>where can I win and where can I not win?

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<v Speaker 1>And sometimes, and I would say, in the case of

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<v Speaker 1>let's say, a lot of the enerergy technologies that are

421
00:25:01.160 --> 00:25:05.119
<v Speaker 1>out there, soler and batteries being two examples, they're just

422
00:25:05.279 --> 00:25:09.920
<v Speaker 1>so far ahead and control the whole value chain, including

423
00:25:10.160 --> 00:25:12.920
<v Speaker 1>the equipment manufacturing, that actually you're going to have to

424
00:25:12.920 --> 00:25:16.160
<v Speaker 1>partner with them. So that we can learn and learn

425
00:25:16.200 --> 00:25:19.000
<v Speaker 1>from our mistakes and then see, Okay, when you have

426
00:25:19.079 --> 00:25:21.400
<v Speaker 1>the knowledge and the know how here, then you can

427
00:25:21.440 --> 00:25:23.119
<v Speaker 1>actually see how you compete them.

428
00:25:23.319 --> 00:25:25.240
<v Speaker 3>That is happening that there are battery plants being stood

429
00:25:25.319 --> 00:25:28.839
<v Speaker 3>up in America in partnership with certain Chinese battery makers.

430
00:25:29.119 --> 00:25:31.799
<v Speaker 3>There are partnerships in Europe that are being stood up

431
00:25:31.799 --> 00:25:35.319
<v Speaker 3>with certain Chinese battery makers. The fins are standing up

432
00:25:35.440 --> 00:25:40.279
<v Speaker 3>some cathode plants themselves partnering the Chinese parties as well.

433
00:25:40.759 --> 00:25:43.720
<v Speaker 3>Remember it's not just about China, though Japan and Korea

434
00:25:43.799 --> 00:25:48.400
<v Speaker 3>have very impressive battery companies themselves who can also do

435
00:25:48.440 --> 00:25:51.200
<v Speaker 3>things at scale. We have the SK's, the lgs, the

436
00:25:51.240 --> 00:25:54.400
<v Speaker 3>Panasonics of this world. So we also have friendly Asian

437
00:25:54.480 --> 00:25:58.960
<v Speaker 3>nations with excellent battery credentials and battery industrial know how

438
00:25:59.160 --> 00:26:01.880
<v Speaker 3>that we can leverage as well. However, in a world

439
00:26:01.880 --> 00:26:05.039
<v Speaker 3>of increasing geopolitical tensions, I would suggest it would be

440
00:26:05.119 --> 00:26:09.799
<v Speaker 3>derelict of us not to leverage the inherent advantages we

441
00:26:09.880 --> 00:26:13.039
<v Speaker 3>have in the West, which is our own mineral endowments

442
00:26:13.160 --> 00:26:17.839
<v Speaker 3>and our own fantastic technology and innovative powers, to try

443
00:26:17.880 --> 00:26:20.799
<v Speaker 3>and also stand up our own independent supply chains, and

444
00:26:20.839 --> 00:26:22.559
<v Speaker 3>that's all I'm saying, and.

445
00:26:22.480 --> 00:26:24.240
<v Speaker 1>I agree totally with you. That's what we should do.

446
00:26:24.880 --> 00:26:28.240
<v Speaker 2>Okay, guys, peace, peace, peace, and serenity.

447
00:26:28.359 --> 00:26:28.720
<v Speaker 1>Please.

448
00:26:28.799 --> 00:26:30.000
<v Speaker 3>I think we ended up agingble.

449
00:26:30.279 --> 00:26:36.759
<v Speaker 2>The relationship with China is very complex because on one hand, yes,

450
00:26:36.799 --> 00:26:41.160
<v Speaker 2>they have technological advantage. On the others, they are financing

451
00:26:41.200 --> 00:26:45.799
<v Speaker 2>the Russians. They are very remarkable but difficult people to

452
00:26:45.880 --> 00:26:50.759
<v Speaker 2>deal with, and I can understand that it's easier to

453
00:26:50.839 --> 00:26:54.319
<v Speaker 2>negotiate with them from a position of strengths than a

454
00:26:54.319 --> 00:26:57.759
<v Speaker 2>position of weakness. And the fact that building our own

455
00:26:57.839 --> 00:27:01.200
<v Speaker 2>supply chains makes what of a negotiation we're going to

456
00:27:01.240 --> 00:27:05.279
<v Speaker 2>have with them easier. Exactly what we all want to

457
00:27:05.359 --> 00:27:09.079
<v Speaker 2>live in a Kumbaya world, but unfortunately that's not what

458
00:27:09.200 --> 00:27:09.640
<v Speaker 2>it is.

459
00:27:10.039 --> 00:27:13.000
<v Speaker 3>We have to live alongside China. China's a reality. It

460
00:27:13.039 --> 00:27:16.839
<v Speaker 3>has become a very substantial global power, and it really

461
00:27:16.960 --> 00:27:18.960
<v Speaker 3>is about the kind of the terms of trade in

462
00:27:19.359 --> 00:27:21.720
<v Speaker 3>and right now we have very little leverage and very

463
00:27:21.720 --> 00:27:25.519
<v Speaker 3>little negotiating power in this narrow area of batteries, and

464
00:27:25.559 --> 00:27:28.359
<v Speaker 3>what we need to do is do our best to

465
00:27:28.559 --> 00:27:32.559
<v Speaker 3>increase our own industrial capacity in this area so we

466
00:27:32.680 --> 00:27:36.319
<v Speaker 3>can have a fairer discussion with China in this area

467
00:27:36.680 --> 00:27:39.960
<v Speaker 3>and not let them completely dictate the terms of the game.

468
00:27:40.319 --> 00:27:43.599
<v Speaker 3>And that's all I'm really saying. It's really about great

469
00:27:43.640 --> 00:27:46.720
<v Speaker 3>power competition and ensuring that we are not going to

470
00:27:46.759 --> 00:27:49.680
<v Speaker 3>be dictated to by China in the future.

471
00:27:50.079 --> 00:27:53.480
<v Speaker 2>On these wise words, Richard, I thank you very much

472
00:27:53.519 --> 00:27:57.079
<v Speaker 2>for coming. Job is totally.

473
00:27:56.640 --> 00:28:01.440
<v Speaker 1>Flambosty attacking them like America is doing right now. You're

474
00:28:01.480 --> 00:28:03.799
<v Speaker 1>not going to win. You have to be much more

475
00:28:03.920 --> 00:28:06.000
<v Speaker 1>subtle in the way you're doing it. That sounds pretty.

476
00:28:05.759 --> 00:28:11.400
<v Speaker 2>Simple, okay, joh, thank you, reach out, thank you, thank you,

477
00:28:11.759 --> 00:28:20.920
<v Speaker 2>thank you both. And the debate continues. We are excellent, Joa.

478
00:28:21.400 --> 00:28:23.960
<v Speaker 2>Before you're going to say what you're going to say,

479
00:28:24.799 --> 00:28:27.119
<v Speaker 2>I just want to tell our listeners I had to

480
00:28:27.240 --> 00:28:32.880
<v Speaker 2>cut about five minutes of heated conversation between you and

481
00:28:32.960 --> 00:28:37.839
<v Speaker 2>the guests, so I'm sorry listeners you get a sensored

482
00:28:38.440 --> 00:28:42.799
<v Speaker 2>version of our conversation. But if there are something to say,

483
00:28:42.880 --> 00:28:44.519
<v Speaker 2>y'all is now well.

484
00:28:44.920 --> 00:28:46.839
<v Speaker 1>I just want to say, if you've got to beat China,

485
00:28:47.519 --> 00:28:49.640
<v Speaker 1>you have to come up with a real long term

486
00:28:49.720 --> 00:28:53.960
<v Speaker 1>strategy for beating China. And my own view on how

487
00:28:53.960 --> 00:28:57.759
<v Speaker 1>you beat China is what I call more than before.

488
00:28:58.960 --> 00:29:02.519
<v Speaker 1>So it is you need to be bigger than them

489
00:29:03.000 --> 00:29:05.319
<v Speaker 1>in whatever area you go into, and you have to

490
00:29:05.359 --> 00:29:09.359
<v Speaker 1>go there before they do it. Okay, If you try

491
00:29:09.400 --> 00:29:13.240
<v Speaker 1>to compete with them when they're big and they're in

492
00:29:13.279 --> 00:29:17.039
<v Speaker 1>the market already, you've no chance. And I really say

493
00:29:17.400 --> 00:29:20.359
<v Speaker 1>no chance. Now, that does not mean you give up

494
00:29:20.400 --> 00:29:23.279
<v Speaker 1>competing with them. It means you have to rethink how

495
00:29:23.319 --> 00:29:26.160
<v Speaker 1>do you compete with them? So if I'm trying to

496
00:29:26.160 --> 00:29:29.039
<v Speaker 1>think about how do I compete with China and say,

497
00:29:29.119 --> 00:29:32.960
<v Speaker 1>litty MYWN batteries, well, you know, trying to do a

498
00:29:33.000 --> 00:29:36.680
<v Speaker 1>North fold on it and vertically integrate and get your

499
00:29:36.680 --> 00:29:39.759
<v Speaker 1>hands on more materials and actually go and get processing

500
00:29:39.799 --> 00:29:43.000
<v Speaker 1>over here, and trying to do it ourselves. You have

501
00:29:43.119 --> 00:29:47.440
<v Speaker 1>two hopes of succeeding, Bob hope and no hope. Okay.

502
00:29:47.880 --> 00:29:50.640
<v Speaker 1>So then the question is how do you well? One,

503
00:29:51.240 --> 00:29:53.960
<v Speaker 1>you partner with the other Asians. So you go and

504
00:29:54.000 --> 00:29:57.079
<v Speaker 1>say to the Japanese and to the South Koreans, Okay, guys,

505
00:29:57.359 --> 00:30:03.079
<v Speaker 1>how are we going to together compete against China? And

506
00:30:03.119 --> 00:30:06.599
<v Speaker 1>you work with them. Okay. That's the strategy in terms

507
00:30:06.640 --> 00:30:10.079
<v Speaker 1>of catching up with them. The other strategy, which probably

508
00:30:10.079 --> 00:30:13.160
<v Speaker 1>nobody wants to hear is that you do a little

509
00:30:13.160 --> 00:30:16.720
<v Speaker 1>bit what we did with them thirty years ago, which

510
00:30:16.799 --> 00:30:20.279
<v Speaker 1>was instead of us going and investing and bringing internal

511
00:30:20.319 --> 00:30:25.920
<v Speaker 1>combustion engine engineering expertise over to China chemical expertise going

512
00:30:25.920 --> 00:30:28.680
<v Speaker 1>into change joint ventures with them, what you need to

513
00:30:28.720 --> 00:30:31.400
<v Speaker 1>do is do the same on the way backward and say, okay, China,

514
00:30:31.880 --> 00:30:35.480
<v Speaker 1>you come and manufacturer evs over here, you come and

515
00:30:35.519 --> 00:30:39.119
<v Speaker 1>go and bring your factories over here, and that way. Okay,

516
00:30:39.200 --> 00:30:42.839
<v Speaker 1>they're bringing jobs in here, and you're learning from them,

517
00:30:43.000 --> 00:30:44.920
<v Speaker 1>and that gives you a chance to actually be in

518
00:30:44.960 --> 00:30:47.839
<v Speaker 1>the game, because a present in that area, we're not

519
00:30:47.880 --> 00:30:51.279
<v Speaker 1>in the game. So what I heard was a strategy

520
00:30:51.319 --> 00:30:53.359
<v Speaker 1>that I don't think will win. That's what I heard.

521
00:30:53.400 --> 00:30:53.680
<v Speaker 3>Wrong.

522
00:30:54.279 --> 00:30:58.440
<v Speaker 2>Okay, that's your usual rumbling, but it's not very specific,

523
00:30:58.519 --> 00:31:02.000
<v Speaker 2>so I'm going to be specific. I cannot understand his

524
00:31:02.160 --> 00:31:05.720
<v Speaker 2>thesis and why the Pentagon liked it and the very

525
00:31:05.759 --> 00:31:10.000
<v Speaker 2>bellicos rhetoric. The thing is, the price of rare earths

526
00:31:10.279 --> 00:31:14.400
<v Speaker 2>is very low right now. Whatever the headlines say, there's

527
00:31:14.400 --> 00:31:17.799
<v Speaker 2>no shortage of rare earth. You cannot go and see

528
00:31:17.839 --> 00:31:20.880
<v Speaker 2>politicians and say, oh, you know, we have a problem

529
00:31:20.920 --> 00:31:23.880
<v Speaker 2>with gallium. We have a problem with germanium, we have

530
00:31:23.920 --> 00:31:29.720
<v Speaker 2>a problem with molybdenum wor problem with antimony. But rare

531
00:31:29.759 --> 00:31:33.759
<v Speaker 2>earth sounds nice, even if nobody knows what's in it. Now,

532
00:31:33.799 --> 00:31:36.279
<v Speaker 2>if you need those minerals, you just ask a Swiss

533
00:31:36.279 --> 00:31:38.960
<v Speaker 2>trader or Japanese traders and they'll bit it from China

534
00:31:39.000 --> 00:31:40.400
<v Speaker 2>and you will have it the next day in a

535
00:31:40.480 --> 00:31:45.200
<v Speaker 2>warehouse in Singapore elsewhere. So first thing I'll say is

536
00:31:45.279 --> 00:31:48.839
<v Speaker 2>tech met should erect the statue to Simon moorees when

537
00:31:48.839 --> 00:31:51.480
<v Speaker 2>he did his legendary show in the US Senate and

538
00:31:51.519 --> 00:31:55.160
<v Speaker 2>freak out everybody else. But when I look at the result,

539
00:31:56.119 --> 00:31:59.440
<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry to say I think they're delusional for three reasons.

540
00:32:00.119 --> 00:32:03.119
<v Speaker 2>The first one is from a technical point of view,

541
00:32:03.759 --> 00:32:07.160
<v Speaker 2>whatever they say about the Leger market is going to

542
00:32:07.200 --> 00:32:09.920
<v Speaker 2>get short, and you know, sorry, everything I see on

543
00:32:09.960 --> 00:32:13.279
<v Speaker 2>the legion market contradicts is a very well supplied market.

544
00:32:13.920 --> 00:32:18.319
<v Speaker 2>And also it's very bullish on directly legium extraction. Well,

545
00:32:18.359 --> 00:32:21.039
<v Speaker 2>good luck with that because that's a tough one. So

546
00:32:21.119 --> 00:32:26.200
<v Speaker 2>that's technical strategic. They've gone big on nickel and cobalt,

547
00:32:26.480 --> 00:32:28.680
<v Speaker 2>I mean cobbold. There's so much cobalt right now that

548
00:32:29.359 --> 00:32:33.319
<v Speaker 2>the DRC had to stop the export, kind of lower

549
00:32:33.440 --> 00:32:36.680
<v Speaker 2>the inventories. And you know what, NIKEL and Cobbalt, we

550
00:32:36.720 --> 00:32:39.960
<v Speaker 2>don't need them in batteries anymore, so why invest in there?

551
00:32:40.799 --> 00:32:44.000
<v Speaker 2>And the third point you made it Okay, the US

552
00:32:44.240 --> 00:32:46.680
<v Speaker 2>want to partner with allies, well, at the same time

553
00:32:46.720 --> 00:32:49.359
<v Speaker 2>they are bullying them or ignoring them. So I mean,

554
00:32:49.400 --> 00:32:51.599
<v Speaker 2>you can't have your cake and eat it for those

555
00:32:51.599 --> 00:32:56.319
<v Speaker 2>three reason. I'm not convinced that is a good.

556
00:32:56.079 --> 00:33:01.440
<v Speaker 1>Conclusion, my fad a good conclusion. You're definitely more diplomatic

557
00:33:01.480 --> 00:33:01.960
<v Speaker 1>than I am.

558
00:33:05.039 --> 00:33:06.319
<v Speaker 2>It was a great foot fight.

559
00:33:07.160 --> 00:33:08.039
<v Speaker 1>It was a date.

560
00:33:08.559 --> 00:33:11.480
<v Speaker 2>Okay, my friend, talk to you next week.

561
00:33:11.680 --> 00:33:17.400
<v Speaker 1>Look forward to it. Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.

562
00:33:17.799 --> 00:33:22.799
<v Speaker 1>Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on Apple, Podcast, Spotify,

563
00:33:23.240 --> 00:33:26.640
<v Speaker 1>or the platform of your choice.
