Speaker 1: What is up, Fellawsikos, I am Dan Favalley coming at
you with yet another twenty twenty five twenty twenty six
NBA season look Ahead. The Golden State Warriors are up
now that the Jonathan Kaminga soap opera is over at
long last, or at least has reached some sort of
a pause until he's trade eligible. I'm very excited. I
have the distinct pleasure this year, once again making his
second ever look Ahead appearance as a guest, the one
the only covers the NBA, including the Warriors, for Bleacher Report.
He's also the co host of a moderately known podcast
within the basketball circles, Mister Grant Hughes follow him on
the socials at Grant Hughes spelled exactly as it sounds, Grant,
it's been can't believe it's been a whole year.
Speaker 2: Been a full year.
Speaker 1: The heck the heck are you doing?
Speaker 2: I was worried that you were gonna ask me to
give you like where can people find your stuff? And
I was gonna have to scramble to like what is
my blue sky handle? I couldn't remember it's on the screen. Yeah,
it's a shame it took a year to get back together,
but here we are. You know, we did it. We
made it. We connected. It's just it's very difficult for
us to get in contact with each other, but we
pulled it off. I'm excited to be here. I'm excited
to talk about one team. We talk all the time
about how wouldn't it be nice if we could cover
one team. But I'm also nervous because I feel like
I'm gonna be put in a position where I'm supposed
to be in authority and it makes me uncomfortable. Dan,
I'm gonna do my bet.
Speaker 1: Which I never would have guessed, because all you do
off air is make demands.
Speaker 2: Right, So I'm very hard to manage. Yeah, but yeah,
which is really why this is why you said it
was because of the kaminga thing that we took so
long to get to this. It was because you couldn't
meet my price. It took a lot of negotiating to
get to this point, but we did it.
Speaker 1: It was the number of carbon credits I had a
give to granted him on here was just absolutely insane.
Speaker 2: Yeah. It's tough, you know, but we got here. That's
the important point. And and we do get to talk
about I'm biased, but this is a really interesting team.
Uh so second second, an interesting podcast.
Speaker 1: Second best in the West. According to ESPN's projections that.
Speaker 2: In our discussion, what could go wrong? I'm prepared to
tell you.
Speaker 1: Speaking of something that I think when according to plan,
we have to start with the Jonathan cominga situation. We
have talked a little bit about it, but now you're
a little bit removed from the situation. He ends up
with the one minus one, the two year deal with
the team option. How do you feel, ultimately feel about
where he and the Warriors ended up.
Speaker 2: I mean, in a lot of ways, they ended up
where they started, which is kind of it's a it's
an it's the relationship exists. It doesn't seem like everybody
is super happy about it. But I mean, look, I'll
just tell you up front, like I'm gonna turn this
into a little more of a dialogue than just me
answering your questions because I don't know, we're both interested
in this team. It seemed to me that the Warriors
got everything they wanted out of this deal, right Like
they they get the team option, they get a number
that they want that allows them to go get to
just fit all the other guys that everybody knew were
teed up onto the payroll, and they preserve Kaminga as
basically as valuable a trade asset as he could have been.
Because if you have two guaranteed years and team option
on a third, I think that to me, if I'm
an acquiring team, is maybe slightly less appealing than one
than the one in the team option because you can
bring him in in January when he's eligible to be traded.
You can use this year to decide, like, how do
we like this fit, and then you can just keep
him cheap.
Speaker 1: You know, if he comes, you could rip it up.
Speaker 2: You can rip it Yeah. Boy, that was so for
anybody if you're listening to this podcast, you are like
you're in the weeds enough, But like I I that one.
Did that one bother you or annoy you that? Like
that's not really what team that's to say that a
deal with a team option was signed with the intent
to rip it up after the guaranteed year is just
so nakedly agent speak that's trying to make it look
better for the player than it actually does. Right, Like
that was like almost a new step in in the
bsing of contract reporting.
Speaker 1: It was next level water carrying. For sure. It provides
an interesting content opportunity. For some reason, his next team
does declimb the option, there better be a video of
just that ripping up.
Speaker 2: Like the contract right right, Chicago Bulls social media team,
you're on notice, you're gonna have to just get a
contract ready.
Speaker 1: Golden State's gonna hit like cocaine.
Speaker 2: Huh, yeah, it'd be great. Yeah, no, I think look it.
I don't know how much analysis of his fit with
the Warriors this year is gonna be different than it
has been almost since his rookie season. Like we'll get
we'll get into it more, but like the end result
of the negotiations is we now know kind of when
this relationship will be over unless something crazy happens and
he Kamika becomes the player he thinks he can be
and it actually makes sense on this roster, which, like boy,
there's a lot of caveats involved with that hypothetical, but
there is like closure in sight, I suppose. But for now,
for the first basically half of this season, it's gonna
be a lot of the same where he's probably not
gonna start, uh, he's gonna have inconsistencies night tonight, there
will be the same athletic flashes, they'll be the same mistakes.
Maybe he improves in his some of the areas he's
been deficient that have cost him playing time. But to me, like,
for example, the worry that like, oh boy, this is
gonna there's gonna be some friction and this is gonna
be this isn't different. Like he's been mad about his
role forever and the Warriors have continued to use him
the way they think is the right way forever. Like
that's just seeing what I'm saying, like, not a lot
actually functionally has changed.
Speaker 1: That's a really good point. And it's also just Draymond
Green is on this team and they went through the
Kevin Durant era, so friction is their default. It feels
like to some extent, what I'm very curious about is,
so I think you and I are an agreement with
this shocker. The best way for Kaminga to like establish
himself as a great fit on the Warriors would be
can you knock down threes? Can you defend hard? Can
you rebound the basketball? And it's can you make quicker
decisions with the ball where it's catching go if you
want to put the ball on the deck. So we're
in agreement with that. My question to you about this though, Okay,
he's on the roster, and if you're the Warriors, I
also agree that this was basically an ideal outcome for
them as you have this large, essentially expiring contract of
a young player that still has tons of upside. So
it's not just we're trading you as expiring salary or
we're trading you as a could be valuable role player.
He can function, and this is very rare as both
they're outgoing salary ballast and like one of the prospects
that are in any deal they want to make, but
you still have to make sure that his value is
intact as that prospect, as that upside player. Is there
something the Warriors can do in your eyes, to where
they're adapting to them a little bit more, whether it's okay,
like maybe this is someone who needs to play more
with Al Horford, like to ensure that the floor is spaced,
is possible, like let's get Draymond Green off the quarter,
Let's get Jimmy Butler off the Florida in those minutes.
Is there just something that they can do to adapt
to him a little bit, because one it serves the
purpose of increasing his trade value. But then also in
theory of Kaminga's playing, well, your team is better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a they're kind of I guess
they're sort of the same issue. Like you want to
make you want to set him up to succeed because
that's good for the team, and two that's good for
his trade value. Right, So like, how does what does
that look like? I think there's just some fairly well
established basics, which includes spacing, So Horford matters in that effort,
Like Kaminga with Kevon Looney and Draymond Green is a
non starter. Kaminga Butler Green like, it's just the space
Steve Kerr said it forever, Like the spacing just doesn't work. Now,
that's a convenient it's true, but it's also a good
way to justify not using Kaminga when that's only part
of the reason the Warriors don't want him in a
huge role. Some of the deficiencies that you mentioned already
that I'm sure we'll talk about are the other way
that Kirk could justify it, and that would feel more
like we just don't think this guy is that good
which is like that serves nobody, So spacing matters. Look,
if there were an easy answer to how do you
make him the best version of himself, they would have
found it at some point in the last several seasons.
I think on one side of the coin, you'd say, well,
he should be out there with Steph and with spacing
and with the starters, because that's less defensive attention on him,
and maybe that makes it so he's not faced with
a good defender or other guys can set him up
more often, or you know, he should be comfortable, or
he should be more successful as a cutter as whatever,
like in transition, just because less attention on him, more
attention elsewhere, more open space for his athleticism to just
like shine. That just isn't the type of player that
he's been. Like I the way that he's been successful
generally is he has the ball a lot, and it's
a lot of record scratch possessions, and he draws fouls
really effectively, and like that's kind of so if you're
looking for how do we get Kaminga's points per game
as high as possible, it's probably allowing him to play
the kind of role that he wants, which is kind
of more of a first option. He won't be efficient
and but he can get some counting stats. The Warriors
aren't super interested in that. I think there are possible
situations where when all the old guys are sitting or
two of them are KAMINGA does just kind of play
that role sometimes where he's just a higher usage guy
and maybe he has success there. Like he had a
couple thirty point playoff games right after Steff got hurt,
so like there's some proof of concept they didn't win those,
so like that's also something where that's proof of concept there.
So I'm kind of rambling, but I think all the
basics you would exp you'd assume go into making him
look good are still just what they are. Space more touches,
that kind of thing start him out, frankly, like he
just always plays harder when he starts, which is another
like that's a knock by the way. So yeah, I
don't have any like magic fix because I don't think
the Warriors do.
Speaker 1: What do you think? And I guess this is definitely
dependent on how their season is going. But what is
the end game of a kaminga trade? Is it to
get prospects and picks for him? Is it to use
his salary so they could bring in another big name player,
And then how how like how married to one idea
might they be to where is there just a chance
that the right deal is out there and he's just
still on this team past the trade dead line.
Speaker 2: It's possible that he's still there. I mean, that's not
the outcome anybody wants. So everybody's very much motivated to
make sure that he's not on this team past the deadline.
I think I would say, I think given the age
of the corps and now you've made it older with Horford,
and the window is I don't know if it's open
at all, but however open it is, it's closing in
a hurry in a couple of years. Just that everybody's
contracts line up to expire, by the way. So I
think it has to be he has to be used
in pursuit of someone who profiles as like, I don't know,
your third or fourth best player that's probably older and
probably has not the best con you know, like a
it's more of a star pursuit than anything else. Now
you're gonna have to make the deal bigger than just
kaminga if that's the way. Oh, but you know who
knows though, because there are some pretty clear needs I
think this team has that maybe are like sort of
lower in the cost on the cost side that he
could be used to. I don't know, go get a
guy that's your fifth or sixth best player. That just
makes sense for sort of what you're to address the
shortcomings that this team has. It could go either way.
I think though it is a win now move, like
you're trading a younger player and probably some picks for
someone that's going to upgrade the roster for the end
of this season and maybe next year. It's pretty short,
like time horizon thinking.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about someone other than Jonathan Minga. How big?
How big is the Al Horford edition for this team.
We tend to over romanticize mini mid level signings of
dudes are in their late thirties. This one just feels
different though.
Speaker 2: He's just kind of other than his age. He's kind
of perfect. He gives them something that they've never had,
which is a guy who can defend the rim, defend
in space, and shoot like that's just they've had one
or two of those things from bigs in the past,
never all of them to me, Like, he's gonna be
part of all of their best lineups, and the question
will just be at thirty nine, how many games can
he play? He probably isn't gonna play back to backs.
He's bound to miss. You just have to price in
miss time. So that sort of, I guess limits his value.
But that's a regular season thing. They get to the playoffs.
That's all that matters to this team obviously, So he's
just an ideal fit. Like there's all he's a good passer,
Like I don't know, we're not saying anything at this
point that people don't know about Al Horford, but on
this team in particular, he's just he's a piece they've
never had, even when they were just full on dynasty,
didn't have this type of guy, like just just haven't.
So it's a fun new wrinkle that is he's just
purely additive, takes nothing off the table. Maybe that's the
best way to put it. Compared to some of the
bigs they've had in the past.
Speaker 1: Is there like a player in particular that you know
it like, oh, he needs to be on the floor.
You're interested in seeing him on the floor with the
most where it's like, oh, this really opens up stuff
for Jimmy Butler or I mean, like the dynamic between
him and Steph could be insane. There's also just he
could carry this outsized importance to someone like Jonathan Kuminga's
game if they're both in the front court.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's everybody, I think, Like, you know, they're gonna
They have already in preseason messed with him and Quentin
Post at the same time, which is like unheard of,
Like they just never that.
Speaker 1: And I hope it stays.
Speaker 2: I just want to see, Yeah, well because and you
can do it because you're not COMPROMI you know, Horford
is not a conventional big defender, like he's just some
of the numbers on his switch defense are just sort
of unbelievable at this age still, So he just lets
you get as creative as you want. I think. I
think maybe the best case scenario is he helps them
address one of the big weaknesses, which is they don't
have almost anybody that and I'm sure I'm stepping on
several things I'll say later. They just don't have anybody
that reliably can just beat his guy, touch the paint,
bend the defense like with the dribble, and maybe his
spacing and passing just allows them to you know, score
in other ways, or maybe it's it's such a value
add in terms of spacing that guys like I don't know,
Moses Moody or even pods that just they just don't
beat their guy actually can once in a while because
there's nobody in the middle of the floor. I don't
know that that's There's a lot of ways he could
impact the team positively.
Speaker 1: Are there any would you have any concerns functionally about
him being there? Is it? He's never been like a hive.
I mean, not that they necessarily have his like a
high volume rebounding big Yeah.
Speaker 2: I could see defensive rebounding being an issue because Draymond
has kind of slipped a little bit in that area.
But honest like, functionally, no, I just Al Horford is
not someone you worry about fitting like anywhere because he
just doesn't, you know, do anything that gets in anybody's way.
It is just again the age, like you're already your
core is already so old and cannot be expected to
play a ton and he's we know he's not playing
sixty five games or certainly not seventy, so that that's
the only thing is he does sort of exacerbate a
weakness that was already there, if that makes sense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you had mentioned the switching before, and I
had been reading something that says was looking at the
Golden State switch numbers last year, which were not especially high.
Do you think they're going to do more switching now
that you have, especially during the minutes that you have
both Draymond and Horford on the floor.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. And I think they want to
do that because in their higher think back to like
Kevon Looney in the twenty two title run was switching
on to you name the superstar and like somehow holding up.
So they they want that in the bag for sure,
And it just isn't something you know, they trace Jackson
Davis started games for him last year and he's that's
just not something he's able to do as a center.
Speaker 1: So about Quinton Post, but this.
Speaker 2: Is maybe the only negative thing I say about him.
He's not gonna that's not something he can do either.
So yeah, he just he unlocks optionality, and I think
against certain teams, I think they'll switch a lot because honestly,
like it's like a less stressful way to play defense
if you can do it just because you're not fighting
through screens, you're just passing guys off. And I don't know,
maybe that's a way you save all these thirty five
plus year old legs as you switch a lot more.
Speaker 1: What is like the defining fast So they're first in
defense last year after getting after Jimmy Butler's debut, Now
they get out Horford theme theory just get better. But
like when you look at the secret sauce behind this defense,
they don't have an elite ballhawk anymore. Maybe you think
that's the Anthony Melton when he's healthy around what like Christmas, January,
whatever that's gonna be. That's not really like GP two.
GP two certainly now is not gonna do that. What
is just the singular trade about this defense that makes
it so good? When you're looking at Okay, you have Butler,
you know what Draymond does, we know what Horford does.
Butler is a better off ball defender than he is
an on ball defender. And yet it all just kind
of comes together and yeah, they could be. They might
not be on Okac's level wire to wire, but their
best lineups can defend like any other team's best lineups.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think one thing that feels like an outlier
is after they got Butler last year, they did lead
the league an opponent turnovers forced, like as a percentage,
which is just like to your point, like there's not
they don't really have the personnel for that. Moody's kind
of sneaky, handsy, like it's hard to dribble around him.
Peyton's a deflections guy, Pods is a take charges guy.
His steel rates low. Draymond's not as mobile as he
was or disruptive, although like still he'll get you a
steal in a block, so it but it's not gonna
be an Okay s style defense. It's not like overwhelming
or like a Houston defense where it's just like these
guys are just glued to you and you can't move.
I think the main thing is you can't. They don't
get out thought ever, like it's just you have Draymond's
steph all this experience. They've played every type of offense
there is. Jimmy Butler is like a genius defense, Like
you know what they lack in the physical tools that
you might see in a really disruptive defense. They make
up for with just I don't know, like know how
and and like they're just sound like they don't they
don't give up a lot of shots where you're like
that was a clear lapse like that kind of thing,
and they do they do win the math game like
they now you'll everybody always says, like the way that
Chase and previously Oracle with log shots at the rim,
like for with their tracking data was like kind of bs,
which is like, how do the Warriors always have the
lowest percentage of opponent shot attempts at the rim? It's
like and it's like they're there's a little bit of
like goosing the numbers there, but they really do just
not allow a lot around the basket and so they
they it's that's just again that goes to they're just
smart and they've seen everything. And Draymond's third defensive Player
of the Year last year, so it's like there is
an anchor like it's just we can't forget they do
have talent. It's just not it's not like I'm and
Thompson Jada like talent, Like it's not that kind.
Speaker 1: It almost feels like because they have Draymond as that
I mean, he's all over, but like that backstop is
he diminishes like the stakes in front of him because
when there are mistakes made or of screen navigation isn't great,
or you don't even need to focus on that that much,
or you have someone like Jimmy Butler who can take
more chances, like more than that's that contribute to the
term of It's like, well, Draymond is gonna be there
to clean up any of the miscuser direct somebody do that,
and now it's, oh, we're just gonna add out Horford
to that, who's also really good right at doing that
type of stuff.
Speaker 2: I think I think one key thing and maybe they'll
be lapses in the regular season because it's a veteran
team and whatever, but like it's gonna be pretty rare
where a team comes out and like one gets to
the thing they want to do first easily, or two
does something that the Warriors are just like not prepared
to defend. They're always it's just this amount of experience
and just generally smart defensive players sets your floor really
high because you're just not gonna like catch them making
the same mistake twice or even you know, hit them
with something that they weren't prepared for generally, because it's
just like, what is Jimmy Butler not seen as a defender.
You know, their processing speed is just again, it makes
up for a pretty unathletic roster.
Speaker 1: And it's even just like teams running on them last year,
which you would think is sort of like the the
Warriors miss a shot. Teams get out in transition, that's
like their Achilles heel. And I think after the Butler
trade they were twenty eighth in opponent frequency on the
break after live rebounds, and yet they were first in
points a loud per possession, which is just like kind
of insane. And it's not saying his defense doesn't have weaknesses,
but it just like you would think that that would
be the recipe to maybe undermining the Warriors defense, and
it just with Butler there, it might not be.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, you know, I think ironically it's easier to
run on the Warriors when they have like their younger,
more athletic guys out there, because those are the guys
that don't think, Okay, I'm I'm the high man in
this offensive possession, I need to sprint back. Kaminga did
it in the preseason game, like it was just a blatant,
like fuck up. That's just like, first of all, like
he should have been able to catch the guy because
he's an A plus athlete, But like that, you're gonna
be able to run on like the Buddy Heeled kaminga
post like younger quote unquote more athletic looks. Buddy Heel's
not young, but you know what I mean, it's like
the old guys actually, just it's harder to catch them sleeping.
Speaker 1: Do you want this to like Danthey Melton? I guess
enough of just I think Andrew Wiggins that was what
people probably didn't appreciate him about. Enough is a lot
of the on ball work that he did. You think
a healthy d Anthony Melton is enough to cover that up?
Or is this a team where it's when you're looking
at or get into their single biggest need later? But
how much of a need do you view as having
like more of an a like and maybe Butler can
do it for stretches, but that's like, that's not Jimmy
Butler right now. So do you view that as an
actual concern for this team or not? Really?
Speaker 2: I think they're not really. I think one, they're gonna
turn to Moody I think quite a bit in the
Wiggins role. He won't be as good as Wiggins was
at his best, but he'll probably be about as good
as Wiggins was eighty percent of the time he was
on the team. So that and then just having the
switch ability behind that. I think you know, their teams
I guess will target Steph. But that's been the case
for almost for whatever seventeen years or whatever it is,
and it's the Warriors have just had a top ten
defense always basically since this whole thing started. So I
think you're right, like, maybe just a point of attack,
like ballhawk type guy is maybe what they don't have
unless Melton is magically fully healthy. But I don't. I
don't view that as like I think their defense is
going to be better than their offense. I guess I'll just
put it that way.
Speaker 1: What did you make of the initial Jimmy Butler fit
and just sort of the dynamics specifically between him and Dre,
him and Steph.
Speaker 2: Uh, He's just I feel like I'm gonna be kind
of broken record ye here, because like he just makes
up for lack of spacing, lack of athleticism with just
he understands where to be and like where the weaknesses
in the defense are and how to exploit him. And
when all spails, he just goes and gets fouled. So
he like his chemistry with good players is just always
going to be good because he's he can figure out
what needs to happen and who needs to be where,
and who needs a shot wear and is this a
possession where I just have to go run into somebody
to slow the game down and get free throws? Like
he's just great that stuff. He is athletically diminished. Maybe
that gets worse this year, but like, you know, the
numbers are just so I had a couple that I
pulled just for you know, the and they probably won't
be anything new. The Warriors are plus twelve point eight
with butler On and steph Off last year, which is
like unheard of. Now. A lot of that was defense
and it was a small sample, so they're shooting variants.
But the offense was a forty seventh percentile offense with
butler On and steph Off, which is like they'll take
that like hit seven days out of the week that
Kevin Durant era right like that's that's not good, but
relatively speaking, that's great. And then when you put him
out there with any of the other vets, it's just
like they just kill everybody. So he's he's pretty additive
for a guy that doesn't space the floor because he
just figures out other ways to like capitalize.
Speaker 1: You know. Yeah, and even when you include the playoffs
as part of that, So just combined and the regulars
he's been in playoffs, they were this is per PBP
stats were a plus five point two per one hundred
when he played without Steph. It's like the offensive rating
during that time is if he like one ten, Like
if you're just gonna tread, it's not about how you're
treading water without Steph. You just need to tread.
Speaker 2: Roles, just can you? And the answer almost always has
been they cannot. Uh So, just if you break even
with that with Steph off the floor, they're gonna win
a ton of games. Like that's just because that's not
been the case.
Speaker 1: I actually found myself when I was watching and I
went back and watched some more Jimmy Butler possessions while
I was putting together the outline for such a special
guest like you're sure yourself. I get frustrated with Jimmy
Butler on the ball a lot of it. Like I
know what he could do as a driver in the
foul drawing, and I thought that that would extend, and
I was feeling this last year. He's playing alongside other
guys and he's not a floor he doesn't want to
be a floor spaser either, but when he's off the ball,
just an intuitive cutter that you mentioned, knows where to be,
like the positioning in the post or if he's going
to be in the dunker spot, and it just it
felt I don't want to say seamless, but we're just like, oh,
like this is this makes so much sense. And so
it's Jimmy Butler on the ball. The way he plays
probably makes more sense during the non steph minutes because
it's okay, like you just need that sort of brute force.
But like I had worried that it just that feeling
the frustration of watching Jimmy Butler try to orchestrate around
other really good players. Now you shift from the Golden
State where that's not his primary role, and those same
limitations are still there, but they just don't matter as much.
And it just felt like far more of an instinctual
fit offensively than I thought it was ever gonna be. Again,
when when everyone was on the floor together rather than
just the staggered minutes.
Speaker 2: I think maybe, as it's hearing you say that, I
think maybe his superpower is that like he, like Steph,
gets a wild hair and throws a ridiculous pass that
has no hope or and Draymond will do it three
or four times a game because they're just like they're
seeing stuff that's not there or there or it's just
like Butler. And this is what's frustrating sometimes is so deliberate,
Like you can not make him throw a pass. He
doesn't want to because he's so strong. He could just
get to a spot and like you're just he's there.
It belongs to him. Now he gets to do whatever
he can do from there. You can't speed him up. Cliche,
but that is very true. Like he just he won't
take a decent three because a decent three for him
is actually not a great shot. He'll just go he'll
wait longer and look for something else. So I think
just as as a stabilizing force, particularly without Steph on
the floor, he just like it's hard to do better
than him because he's just gonna do whatever he wants
to do and as long as it takes him to
do it, that's it. So be it like great because
now we have longer possessions and Steph's rest counts for
extra and again, you know, like the more we shoot
three throws while Steph is out, his two minutes off
the floor turned into eight. You know. So it is
he what frustrates about him, I think sometimes is actually
like a positive if you if you kind of flip it.
Speaker 1: So I was gonna ask you what you're tracking most
closely with him headed into like his first full season
with the team. But I wanted to Actually one of
the things that I found fascinating and I'm curious if
other teams will do it, is we saw Minnesota go
to like using a big on Jimmy a lot. Do
you think that that's gonna become more of a staple,
especially knowing now who Golden State's three primary bigs are.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're they are gonna be susceptible to that because Butler,
like you know, in a triple threat from the three
point line is not blown by almost anybody, like he
will just get to a more dangerous area. But it'll
be a two foot plant and it'll pump fake fourteen
times and maybe he'll pass and maybe he'll draw fout.
It's not He's not blown by anybody. So they are
vulnerable there. I just I just again, I would just
fall back on like, if you show the Warriors that
look enough times, they will just figure out where you're
weak elsewhere because of it. So like, but that is
to say that length and athleticism will be a huge
problem for them, like the Houstons. I'm stepping on a
question later already again too Houston Minnesota, Okay, see, obviously
like they will present problems like you, they barely beat
the Rockets in that series last year, and that Rockets
team was deeply flawed on offense, and it was just
because that defense was physically overwhelming. Al Horford is not
solving that right like that that that's gonna be a
wee a pain point for this team. No matter what what.
Speaker 1: Did you make of steps season last year, especially when
you kind of juxtaposed the what he and he was
still really good. I want to be clear, you get
the splits like pre and post Butler trade, like he's
at twenty seven plus points, fifty eight percent of his
twos after the Butler trade, forty one percent from three on,
it was like eleven and change attempts per game. Was
it really the I've heard a lot of framing of oh,
this was like he hit the give a shit switch,
and like, what how much of it was that? How much?
Is it just boled like the talent around him was better,
so so he got better? And then was is there
any just area of drop off you are kind of
monitoring knowing his age.
Speaker 2: I think the explanations, both those explanations are valid. Steph
gives a shit no matter what, though, so I would
push back on that one to touch not saying you're
saying that. I think the biggest thing was he was
not constantly exhausted because the way the team was constructed
before Butler got there. Now it's always been the case,
but like the defensive attention he got, just there was
no reason not to throw two guys at him all
the time because there just wasn't an outlet that could
do anything with the ball that could threaten the defense.
Like every team was happy to just throw the kitchen
sink at Steph and open opportunities up elsewhere because the
Warriors weren't equipped to capitalize on those. So just watching
the game, Steph was like just physically and maybe the
best conditioned guy in the league exhausted all the time,
And I think Butler being there one allowed him to
rest more and for that rest to be longer. The
free throws are a real thing, Like that does extend
the amount of time that he's on the bench in
real time, and having someone that when you force the
ball out of steps hands, Jimmy Butler is a pretty
good option against the defense that's playing like three on four,
you know. So I think I think it was mostly
that in terms of like drop off, you'd have to
look pretty hard to see any last year. I would say,
like the last five seasons or so, Like his STEP's
rim attempt frequency is a little down, like but his
just last year versus twenty three, twenty four drive frequency
about the same. Like if you're looking for athletic decline stuff,
finishing at the rim pretty much the same. All this
stuff is down from you know, the unanimous MVP and
in the next five years or so, But in terms
of the last five there's not a lot statistically you
could point to and say, oh, you know here it
is here, here's the stat that shows he's slipped. Here
could happen this, It should happen eventually, right, But I
don't think there's a lot of evidence at this point
to say that the that like, we saw signs of
concern last year.
Speaker 1: Which is incredible, and I think honestly, like between him
and Lebron and maybe even Kevin Durant, we've probably watching
like three of what the five greatest players to age,
Like just as you look at the how well they
play with their aging curve, which is kind of insane. Yeah,
but it's also just all right, well, it's gonna happen
at some point or I can't get out of waiting
for the shooter drop versus just as Andrew Claudio called it,
with Michel Bridges's durability, it's like I see a trend.
I don't see as like they're overdue for something wrong.
But when it comes to aging, it's just so different.
But if you're just going off last season and in theory,
his on court workload should be, if not lighter than easier,
like well, like, why is it he gonna be just
as good? But is there a chance that he's just
even better at the age of thirty seven, which is insane.
Speaker 2: It's it's I would expect him to be as good,
but you know, because it's hard to be it's hard
to say, like, you he can be better getting a
year older just because he was. I don't know what.
He didn't make all either of our like all NBA
first team ballots, I don't maybe I actually did put
him on there, but he was the second team. Like, really,
what's amazing is he's playing at a higher level than
Lebron right now. I mean, he's he's a few years younger,
but like, at some point we're gonna have to well, yeah,
I believe, Yeah, that's no joke. But yeah, no, I
think I don't see decline and I agree that it's
just absurd that he's still doing this. We should just
drink it in while we can.
Speaker 1: I guess, yeah, uh, what do you think about Draymond
Green season last year?
Speaker 2: That one's a little different from the decline perspective. Third
Defensive Player of the Year had just still is still
just one of the best all around defensive players in
the league, one of the smartest players in the league,
he though insane. That's the thing. It's yeah, it's ridiculous
you could. I mean, you can't really have a conversation
about the smartest defensive players of all time without bringing
Draymond up. I'm not saying he is number one, but
it's like, I don't know, the resume is what it is.
He though anecdotally, I would say there were more games
last year where you could pretty quickly surmise, oh, he
doesn't have it tonight, just like from how he was moving,
which is the expectation for guys with his mileage and
that have had to play the role that he has,
which is just always against bigger players and or tracking
smaller quicker. Like it's just the mileage is what it is,
So like that would manifest in you know, he isn't
the If you go watch twenty sixteen as a grab
and go defensive rebounder, it was just like lights out.
It just would beat everybody up the floor with the ball.
That's not really you might get one of those every
couple games now and then there's there are rebounds now
that elude him that didn't used to. He's still like
a double digit per thirty six rebounder. And for his
size is a great rebounder. But yeah, those are just
a couple of things I noticed last year. I would
expect those to continue to be issues. His two point
finishing is worse. But he's had like crazy fluctuations in
inside the arc field goal percentage over over his career.
Like there have been years where he's like a sub
forty percent guy, you know, sub forty five on twos.
He was like fifty one percent last year on twos,
which is way down from the year before, but still
not like, I don't know, that's not crippling. So that's
all to say. If I were picking one of Draymond,
Butler or Steph to really show their age this year,
it would be Draymond just because I think there have
been more signs already.
Speaker 1: Which is tough to score, because I think they view
him and have for at least the past few years,
is that's not someone they want playing thirty minutes a game. Yeah,
and you're going to say that about Al Horford as well.
I mean, like you can't get away with not playing
Steph for Jimmy thirty minutes a game on this probably
don't think, Yeah, And so like that is sort of
a like a concern with the This isn't a Draymond
Green specific concern, but becomes a concern specific to the
entire roster, where it's like, right, if two of your
like four most important players or two of your six
most important players, you don't want playing that many minutes.
Like what is the margin for error here? Really it's not.
Speaker 2: High, Uh, I mean, that's that's that's priced in, I
think too. One of the things I've been kind of
one of the ways I'm thinking about this team is
that they're so limited in just general like shot creation,
that you almost have to have two of Steph Butler
Draymond Horford on the floor at all times, because if
it's just one, it's probably not enough, and if it's zero, man,
the offense can look really bad. So not only do
you need to like be careful with minutes, but you also,
like I don't think like all all bench units for
this team are gonna get their ass kicked like fairly often. Now,
they might run hot and win some of those minutes,
but like, in general, I really think they got to
have a couple of those four vets on the floor
almost all the time to like just keep just keep
your your floor from falling out.
Speaker 1: After having watched Pajemski for a couple of years now
and then seeing him kind of when he came back
from the was that the abdominal or core injury or
whatever he had, he was really good, Like the final
thirty plus games of this season. Is there any chance
of him maybe filling Are we not giving enough credit
to the idea that he when you just look at like,
I love those like idiosyncratic players and there's like a
like a we a whack a doodle in this Uh?
Is there a chance for him to fill any of
that shock creation?
Speaker 2: Boyd boy, they want him to like, they like that.
That's one of the main things to keep an eye
on this year is can he improve as a creator
for himself and for other players? And that's gonna my
sense is it's gonna be very difficult for him to
do that because he, like a lot of guys on
this team, just isn't quick enough or big enough to
like really just just win individual matchups like get all
the way to the basket on a layup, for example,
is like very hard for him. He one of the
things that makes him such a quirky player is he'll
come to a stop in the lane, pivot several times,
you know, do a lot of up and unders and
step throughs, and he's got a slow step. Now he's
like credit him. He's looking everywhere for ways to be
more of a reliable shot generator. I think I think
he's a winning player. I think he helps on both ends.
I just I haven't seen evidence that he's gonna be
a reliable Okay, Pods has the ball, he can make
something happen with it, like for himself or for other guys,
like consistently. I just think athletically he's not He's not
quite He's a combo guard right, Like he's not a
point guard. And that is an issue with this team
is is they need him to do more point guard stuff,
which is just like beat your guy, you know, for
for example, pick and roll, get a great shot for
somebody that's not so far a strength of his.
Speaker 1: You you just made me think of this. Is there
a player that fits his physical profile that has ever
then been able to do that, because it's like you
can talk about slower players being able to run offense,
but they're usually have like real side, they're either operating
from the post or it's just like they can get
to that step back three and get their shots off
over everyone. But when you're talking about someone in that
what like six three six two sixty four range who
is not very athletic, like isn't gonna get by it,
Like he almost feels like I think, I don't think.
I think this does him a disservice. But it's almost
the equivalent of if you wanted him to run a
half court set. It's, oh, are you asking shorter Kyle
Anderson to do it a little bit?
Speaker 2: I mean, that's it. That's obviously I know you know
that's like an extreme one, but I'm trying to think of, yeah, well,
that just illustrates the difficulty of like what the team
needs him to be. Like the best, best version of
this Warriors team has someone in Pajemski's role that can
get to the paint whenever he wants, you know, and
like that, Like I will say in the preseason game
against Portland LJ.
Speaker 1: L J.
Speaker 2: Cryer, who is not a person I had ever heard
of and will not play minutes on this team. It's
just a small athletic point guard and him being able
to just touch paint or you know quickly, like like
explode off a screen was like so noticeable because they
the Warriors don't have that guy. Again not an NBA player,
but that particular skill set just is not on this roster.
So yeah, I don't I don't know what the comp
for Pajemski would be. Again, like all the numbers say
it and the eye tests he like you, you do
well when he's on the floor, generally speaking, unless he's
someone you're counting on to run your offense, like that's
that's been beyond him so far.
Speaker 1: Are you going to be speaking at Quinton Post Hall
of Fame induction.
Speaker 2: Due I want to. I'm not gonna spoil my prediction
coming later, so uh he so, yes, yes, I hope.
So I was an early adopter. I was in right away.
I hope. I hope I'm asked and I will accept
if asked.
Speaker 1: So with him, are we just like to assume when
you look at the makeup of the road, like is
he penciled in or sharp eating it's like this is
the third big, Like this is just the behind Raymond
and Al Horford, Like he's the first big they're gonna
turn to, unless you're considering Johnathan can make a big.
Speaker 2: Jonathan gimming It does not consider himself a big, So
how dare you? Uh he Yeah, I think so. I
think because the alternatives Trace Jackson Davis, who again started
some games for them last year, is probably not probably
because coming hasn't shown facility for this. But he's the
best pick and roll finisher, like he can go up
and get a lob, decent sneaky passer sometimes, but like
the Warriors just have never won his minutes, and he's
not a good defender, is a little undersized, like so,
so TJD just is like a fourth big I think,
like he's not a rotation guy necessarily, and he won't.
There will be a lot of games where he just
doesn't play, probably unless it's already decided. So yeah, post
I think is gonna play a fair amount, and you're
gonna have to insulate him with other defenders, certainly if
he's out there against like opposing starters. But that shooting Dan,
that shootings legit, like that's you know, nine plus attempts
per thirty six. He's a forty percent guy. Guys look
for him, and he he understands the of the playoff.
Speaker 1: Some curious Yeah, no.
Speaker 2: That's the thing. I mean, we're talking against like real
like starting units. It's harder, I think against backups, especially
if you just I don't know why this would be
the case, but if if you don't treat him like
a guy that just is gonna shoot it every time
he touches it and loves to shoot and wants to
get him up from three like he will he's he'll burn,
Like he really is that good of a shooter. I think, like, so, yeah,
he's he's a specialist, but uh, you can't. You can't
say a specialist without special Dan very special?
Speaker 1: Wow? Is there anything else though that like you're monitoring
that you could see him developing or like getting better
at or like providing this additional layer of production.
Speaker 2: I think physical tools wise, he's pretty limited, Like he's
not very mobile. He plays very small defensively for a
seven footer. One thing I said about him last year
and and it's still true, is that like he understands
what he's supposed to as a rookie. Even he understood
like what he was supposed to do on defense where
he was supposed to be. And the thing I love
so much about him is that like he would screw
up a lot, and he would know, he knew it.
He would always know, and he would know what the
mistake was, and like bad body language, he would be
angry at himself. And so I kind of like that
to me is someone that I think will get as
much as he possibly can out of his limited physical
tools on defense because like he's gonna try to do
the right thing and he understands what it is, so
like maybe he gets better just positionally, or maybe he
gets better as a verticality kind of you know.
Speaker 1: Rim protection numbers were actually pretty good last year.
Speaker 2: It's it's like I think, because he understood, like he's
not an he doesn't play defense like well, I don't
know if I should say that, because he does make mistakes. Again,
he knows when the mistakes are made and he knows
what they are, so I trust him to correct those
because it's not like, you know, Draymond's gonna shut up
about it, like he's gonna he's if he doesn't know
he's made a mistake, he will be made aware of.
Speaker 1: It the end of the playoffs. Notwithstanding, we saw Moses
Moody yet like a pretty steady role with the Dubbs
last year, where are you sort of just at with him?
Speaker 2: He's he's a really important player for them this year
because they don't have another wing sized guy who, in
theory is like a fairly high volume three point shooter
that you would also trust to defend like a legit
opposing two or three. Like that was the Wiggins role
for a long time, and that's not a role Kaminga
can fill. And so Moody's kind of like he used to.
I remember we talked about this might have been I
don't know when it was, maybe a year ago, maybe
more than that, Like why doesn't Moody get more time?
And my answer was like, because whatever they need Moody
to do, there's like there's somebody that's better at that thing.
So like it would be Gary Payton would be your
on ball defender. He's better than Moody at that you'd have.
I don't know, Wiggins was a better three and D guy. Uh,
just there was always somebody, and now those somebodies are
kind of gone or have aged out a little bit
in like Peyton's case for example.
Speaker 1: So he's the only three and D possibility on this roster.
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying, Like and I think that's an
important piece to have on this team. So his role,
It's funny, like his minutes per game have gone up
incrementally every year, as have his points, as have his
free throws per hundred, as have his threes. So like
he he's incrementally getting better. He just he needs to
be I think, closer to like thirty eight thirty nine
percent from three than he's he's been like thirty six
thirty seven. There's a thirty four I think in there.
So but like there's nobody else to do what they
need him to do, so I think I think all
by default and by like on some level merit because
he's earned it. Like he's the complete opposite of Kamingo,
where he's just like, what do you want me to do?
I'll do it. So I think he's gonna I guess
I'm not gonna spoil the lineup talk we'll have later.
But I think he has to play a big role,
and I'm I'm on the fence as to whether like
he can be starter level successful in it. I think
it's possible.
Speaker 1: What is the bigger concern him on defense or him offensively?
Speaker 2: That's that's a good question. I think offensively, He's not
gonna be asked to do much, so I think because
he's gonna essentially be a spacing threat that maybe cuts
like you you they can't you can't ask him to
to dribble like, he's just not someone that's gonna do that.
So I think he's somewhat of I mean, if he
could move like Nie Smith, we really have something defensively,
I think offensively maybe just like again I said it already,
really like disruptive hands, like guys dribbling up the floor.
He seems to like poke it away once or twice
the game, doesn't always get the ball, but like kind
of is annoying laterally though and vertically he's just not
like he's not as athletic as you'd want someone to
be in that position. So maybe defense is where just
considering the types of guys he's gonna have to guard,
is where like that's that's a pretty big, like pivot point.
He's how effectively can he guard some of the matchups
he's gonna have to see this year?
Speaker 1: Does that concern span more to like, how how do
you feel about him going up against smaller let's say,
like ball handlers versus like some of the bigger power
wings or forwards. It feels like this is watching him.
I feel like physically I should be saying that I
feel better about him being on like a DeMar de
Rosen type or just like a bigger wing type forward.
I don't like the just like the vibe of it is,
I don't I feel like he might be better suited
to going up against the smaller players. Is that like,
am I missing here?
Speaker 2: You know, I'm struggling to like to. I think he's
kind of vulnerable sometimes against both, but like his length,
he does he get again like he does use his
length like pretty well. So I don't think you're wrong
to sort of if you're imagining Moody matched up against
like I don't know, immanual quickly or something like a
not a huge guard like I think he's okay there,
which again like you don't want you want Steph hidden somewhere.
So Moody's gonna get like kind of the Klay Thompson
role right where Pete Clay would just guard whoever was
more dangerous at the one or the two, often the one,
So that'll be Moody's job. So he's never gonna have
to guard. I don't think he's gonna guard the power
Wings because that's Jimmy Butler, that's Draymon whatever, and that's
Horford On switches. So yeah, I think it's maybe a
good thing that Quin's post on switches to Quinn post
There he went, uh yeah, I think Moody will be
okay against smaller guards. But I'm not, like, I don't
love it.
Speaker 1: Who grabs more rebounds for this team? G Santos or Quintin.
Speaker 2: Posts G Santo's agent of chaos. That guy I was
talking to Sucking, a friend of the podibility the other day,
and uh G Santos. Dan is an event creator. When
he's on the floor, like things occur, like he was just.
Speaker 1: Like Robin Hood provides like these prediction markets to call
event contracts a sorry.
Speaker 2: Yeah he's uh he should get a get a tie in.
Yeah he's He's just a pure hustle guy that actually
can shoot a little bit. I wouldn't. I think he's
no higher than like a tenth or eleventh on the
depth charts. I was gonna ask, is is he is
there a chance he becomes more into gral than like
a GP two is Seth Curry maybe even a Melton
like upon Melton's return. Yeah, Melton's a wild card given health.
I think I don't think Curry's going to see a
ton of minutes because like you have healed for that
role essentially, and Buddy Heeld never ever misses games, so
that that's kind of spoken for you. Look though, Jimmy
Butler's if Jimmy Butler plays sixty games, I mean one,
that's probably on the high end. Draymond saying Santos will
have nights where he is in the rotation for sure,
and for him it's like he's always gonna hustle. It's
just if he's gonna hit you know, two of the
four threes he gets up or zero, that's gonna go
a long way towards determining how helpful he is.
Speaker 1: This isn't necessarily basketball related, but do you assign any
significance to the Steve Kerr contract situation?
Speaker 2: I mean it is, I guess a fraction of the
significance you would assign to someone in any other situation
than this one, where I do think he's there for
as long as he wants to be, which is probably
two years, because that's that's just how the contracts are
set up to expire for Steph and Draymond. So no,
I don't, I don't, I don't. I don't think it's
anything like if this season goes poorly, they're gonna look
elsewhere for next year's coach, like one good luck in
that past, Stephan Draymond, right, Like that's they're just gonna
that's a hard veto So if I think Kurr's there
for as long as he wants to be, whatever the
contract status is.
Speaker 1: See, I didn't even think Ivy, that is like the
nuclear perspective, like is Mike Dunlevy trying to just like
leave his own mark on the other like he would
get rid of Steve Kerr. I I took it as like, oh,
does he maybe know something about like the future, a
media future, this core that we do.
Speaker 2: Not well, well maybe I I've always thought like he
and and he kind of put the lie of this
Kurr did when asked answering the question you just posted
me of like he still loves it, he wants this
is what he wants to do. He's excited to come
to work like all this stuff he's always said. But
I've always kind of thought in the back of my mind,
like he's someone that he could go do a lot
of other things, right, Like he could go back to TV,
no problem, he could just who knows. He maybe he
has like social justice interests that he would rather pursue.
Like that's definitely it, Like that's what his father was
very much like that kind of guy, and I think
he is built the same way. So yeah, Like I
don't know if it's like he's he knows that that
there's something like this roster is. I think he understands
like the age here, like he literally as a player,
like lived through pretty close to this situation. So I
just think he's keeping his options open because he knows
he has a lot that are not involved, that don't
involve coaching. I think Eric Spolser being like already tabbed
as the next Olympic coach, it's like, okay, that's one
step back for Kerr. That was like something that was
known to happen. But you know, I think he's just
that's the right approach for this team, right, Like, let's
see how it goes. Well, we're not signing on for
six years. Who knows what this team is gonna look
like in three.
Speaker 1: Well, it's just weird because as a coach, it's just
like you don't count against the salary cap, So if
they're willing to pay you, and like you like, I
just don't.
Speaker 2: Feel do you think it's do you think it's the
team hasn't offered something?
Speaker 1: But that's my point is like if he's not, if
he's the one who's making the decision, is to I
want to just go through this season and see how
it goes. I want to know why, because he could
just play it. You just sign something and play it
on a year to year basis if you really want
I find it. I think I just find it like
a tad more fascinating than you do. The logic here.
It's not that I view him as a lame duck coach.
I'm just like, well, he's going to lose.
Speaker 2: The locker room.
Speaker 1: Look, I won't put anything past the team that has JK,
Jimmy Butler and Draymard.
Speaker 2: That's true, noted noted malcoontent Steph Curry could turn on
him at any time.
Speaker 1: I just I'm just curious. It's like where his head
is at, more so than what was the organization thinking?
Speaker 2: It is unusual, right, like the lame duck thing is.
Teams avoid that at all costs. Generally speaking, they always
fire the guy in this situation if they're not sure.
So it is, it's notable. You're right?
Speaker 1: Are you ready to enter the cookie cutter port of
the podcast? Sir?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Even though it means we're almost done, I guess.
Speaker 1: Well you could find a way to turn it into
another record.
Speaker 2: I feel like I already have gone too long, you know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you look at this roster on paper right now,
without having seen a regular season game. What is the
single biggest need that the Dubs have.
Speaker 2: I've touched on it already. I think it's an on
ball threat that can break the paint, bend the defense,
win point of attack matchups like that kind of thing.
Like they just don't have that guy.
Speaker 1: You just I feel like you just described an all star.
Speaker 2: It doesn't need to be an All Star. It could
be who's like the.
Speaker 1: Don't say Derek White because that's basically.
Speaker 2: No, But I will say like Kobe White, like you know,
someone of that level. Maybe even he's not. It doesn't
need to be who's just like, there's got to be
like a mid level guy that could do it well.
Speaker 1: What I think becomes an interesting question there is if
you are to go if you want someone who's good
enough to be in your rotation, you have to give
up something to get them, and they obviously have assets,
But how do you go about acquiring something like that
when I would argue they might not be in your
closing lineup, like there's players that would, but like a
Derek White would probably be in your closing lineup, but
that's like that's a different tier. Like a Kobe White
is a perfect example in the sense of would he
be in the Warriors' playoff closing lineup? I know maybe
sometimes probably not though.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I don't think so at all. But that's
just like, well, neither is Jonathan Kaminga. And that's the
piece you're going to use to go get the type
of player we're talking about. So yeah, like I mean, sure,
ideally another star would be would be great and if
he can do those things, awesome, it's just just the
athleticism to break down a defender in a one on
one situation, like in a downhill kind of way, that
just I just I don't and that doesn't need.
Speaker 1: To be like, ah, like a Devin what about what
if you can get Devin Vessel. I don't know why this.
Speaker 2: He doesn't do that though, really like he's probably not
getting all the way of the basket, I mean honestly
as well, again this is a star, but and he's
actually not that great at this anymore. But like Fox,
just someone that's like you shade help to him because
he's probably gonna beat his guy in a one on
one matchup.
Speaker 1: Wait what fo?
Speaker 2: I was just you were on the Spurs and I
was trying to think of, like, well, who's the thickest
on ball.
Speaker 1: He's not a star anymore.
Speaker 2: You just said no, no, no, I'm saying he's not as
good used five years ago. Fox was like you can't
stay in front of him. But now it's like he's
shooting a lot of pollus.
Speaker 1: Like he made it the entire podcast, not saying anything
in flammatory like Darren Fox is like an age.
Speaker 2: No, he's a Max player Dan obviously Like, but you know,
I was trying to think of someone who just like
you can't stay in front of.
Speaker 1: You said breakdown. That's like Norman Powell is not really
a good example there. That's like a weird name to
have to find what about and hard to do enough
of that for you.
Speaker 2: I don't think I know he's a great defender. I
don't know about offensively. I mean, like just because I
can only think about players on teams you're mentioning like
TJ McConnell plays pretty fast, Like what if it were him?
What if he were your backup point guard instead of
pajem Ski like Austin Reeves? H, I want quicker? Who's
just where are these guys? Do these players exist anymore?
Why can't we think of anybody Dillingham the idea of
Rob Dillingham.
Speaker 1: The idea of Rob Dillingham. Uh So, what is something
about this team that's flying under the radar that you
think deserves to have more of a spotlight on it? Uh?
Speaker 2: I just thought of this this morning because I was
trying to come up with something semi interesting. So I
think maybe this is a not just this year thing
and this will play to you Who's always been more like,
let's they need to go get the guy because the
Steph's prime is finite type of thing, like go get somebody.
And I was always like, well, I don't know. I
don't know about Jimmy Butler. I don't know if he's
gonna fit like that kind of thing. I think the
lesson is they've gone after two huge players in like
the last whatever ten years. The one was Kevin Durant
and the others Jimmy Butler, and they both fit like
perfectly right, and they could not be more different as
as like the type of superstars they are. So I
think the lesson is probably that, like the Warriors never
needed to be this picky because between Steph and Draymond,
they have like it's an oxymoron, but like the two
most complimentary superstars of all time, where it's just like
what is like Steph's not taking your game away if
you're a superstar, He's making it better. Same with Draymond,
other than the spacing thing, and even that's worked with Butler.
So like I think the lesson that the takeaway is
that they could have gone after like you name it,
like I don't know, DeMar de Rosen at some point
like anybody, and it's just like it would it would
have worked because those two guys just allow whatever superstar
you bring in to like do the thing they're best
at and they make that guy better, you know what
I mean. Like I think I think there's a case
to be made that they should have taken bigger swings sooner,
right because it's like the two they've taken they worked,
and those guys are like diametric opposites in terms of
how they play.
Speaker 1: It's like their bigger swings in the draft really haven't
worked out. But when they're like incorporating like these established players,
they have worked out. And I would echo that they
probably could have made bigger swing sooner, or they should
at least when you're outlining their biggest needs right now,
like they should maybe factor that into the equations, Like
this guy doesn't really check all our boxes, but look
at what's happen.
Speaker 2: Just do it. Yeah, just do it. It's worked if
it's your two for two in your superstar swings, So yeah,
I think that's right.
Speaker 1: I am tasking you with building a ten man rotation
for this team. Who is your starting lineup and then
who will be the five most used reserves.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go mostly with I'm gonna lean towards
what I think it'll be, and I guess that that
excu is pretty close to what I think it should be.
So it's very similar to what you provided on the
outline with one key difference. I think you're starters right
now today. Obviously there's non negotiable Steph Butler, Draymond Horford,
they're starting, what about bringing Steph off the bench and
like this, Yes, you know that's what I was gonna
get to. That was that was my bold prediction. Is
he's gonna They're gonna preserve him. They want to get
seven more years out of him. So fifteen minutes a.
Speaker 1: Night, so star Quenton post, yeah, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because he replicates the spacing and then some so
similar gravity really uh So the fifth starter I think
right now is probably Moody, and that's mainly because of
the defense stuff, the three and D stuff, the and
and the fact that unless you really mess with it.
I think Pajemski still, even though I just dumped on
his ability to do this, he's the closest thing to
someone that can run a second unit that they have,
So I think I think for now Pajemski may make
more sense off the bench, and then after him, Buddy
Healed obviously kaminga Quinton posts. Those are the four I
think pretty clear bench guys. The tenth guy it is
probably Melton if and when he's healthy and then it.
But prior to that, I think Kerr is, you know,
I think it's just gonna mess around. So like GP
two will definitely have Knights in the rotation. Santos same thing.
Tj D is probably kind of behind those three just
because they're not going to need four bigs most nights.
Speaker 1: But yeah, you don't have to be a Quentin post
Is shooting below forty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, or if the league is like this guy's
too good, you can't use him anymore basketball reasons. Yeah, yeah,
so probably Melton as the tenth guy, but who knows,
right coming off the ACL, he's still not ready, so
we'll see.
Speaker 1: I had not given a lot of thought to Moody
as a starter, even though I recognize like the value
he needs to bring to them on defense, because I
kind of thought that, Okay, the spacing is like this
shot might be there, but it's like what are defense
is going to treat it like? And Buddy Heald would
have been just that's a five alarm fire still, right,
And so that makes it easier for Draymond Jimmy Butler.
But the more I think about it, if you were
like thinking from an optimization perspective of Jonathan Kaminga putting
him in the bet having like Pods coming off the
bench with Buddy Heald also coming off the bench, with
Quinton Post coming off the bench, like that's a lot
of like complimentary talent for him specifically.
Speaker 2: I think that's a factor too. And really again, like
if you, I guess maybe the argument for starting Pods
and then having Moody on the second unit is then
Kaminga becomes like the only guy that that should be
handling the ball very much, and maybe that's what he wants.
And maybe that's circling all the way back, like how
you up his value and get the most production from him.
They may try that, I mean, and Pajemski has missed
time in both seasons so far, so there will be
nights where like that is just what happens. Probably I
still would. I'm very skeptical about all bench units on
this team though, so I think realistically there'll be a
fair amount of staggering where you're gonna have a starter
or two out there like almost all the time until
garbage time.
Speaker 1: Friend of the podcast Bill asked me to ask you
this question, is there a chance that Al Horford comes
for Draymond Green's starting spot. I think the implication being like,
would they ever just run like dual real bigs?
Speaker 2: So it's so or.
Speaker 1: You're bringing Draymond off the bench and you're starting like
Moody end pods or Moody end healed or something.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess the argument for that is you
can get to five well, Butler's still there. So I
don't know if you call that a five out, but
close with the Knicks would call five out. Yeah, exactly.
I don't know, I think if I mean, I think
they're both gonna start, so I feel like I can
just like dodge the question that way. Yeah, it's hard
for me to imagine that because you don't I don't
know what value I guess maybe as a facilitator with
Draymond playing more with backups that because I've just said
they don't have shot creators. Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like Draymond is more likely to
get traded than to even if you're staggering them and
he's like facilitating with the backups, then for him to
be coming off the bench, that's what I think, I agree,
because even then he's still not certainly not the guy
that's just gonna break his band.
Speaker 2: Down off the dribble. That's just like not ever something
he's done. So he'll play the handoff game with Kaminga
I guess, like or whoever else and move the ball.
But yeah, I don't know about that.
Speaker 1: What will be this team's most used crunch timelineup? I'm
assuming it's another situation to where Okay, the four guys
are entrenched and they might futzon fiddle with that fifth guy.
Speaker 2: So this is where I think Pods comes back into
the picture, same four key guys, and then I think
in the interest of another like, he's a better shot
creator than Moody is, and there's a great chance that
he just outshoots him too, So you're the spacing element
you want, is there? I think in crunch time especially,
you're gonna want as many guys that can punish defenses
for for overloading to Steph as possible, and Pajemsky's like,
I think, just better equipped to do that than Moody,
So I could see him closing with the with the
four vets.
Speaker 1: Is there a weirdo or excuse me, whack a doodle lineup?
Rebranded by Sarah Toada, The Desert News shut out there
that you want, Steve Kurda try.
Speaker 2: I have a couple. Uh. One is everybody can shoot,
which is Steph, Buddy, Moody, Horford and Post. That's kind
of fun.
Speaker 1: I don't even think you could get to like and
everybody can shoot. Lineup with the Warriors, well, I like
Seth has to go in there.
Speaker 2: Oh, I don't even think about that. Uh yeah, that
might be that might have to he might have to
go in for Moody in that look. And then there's
a chaos lineup which is GP two, Melton Pods, Santos, Draymond,
where everybody's sure, but it's chaos Dan, everyone agitates everyone.
Uh there's so many deflections they can't score at all,
so they're just gonna have to run. So that's kind
of fun. And then because we have to do this
a super size, I think you have Butler at the one,
Moody two, Draymond three, Horford four, Post five.
Speaker 1: You took mine? Was that it? I did want to
see it.
Speaker 2: That was mine because like, oh, there's no point guard.
Well there's like all five yeah, four of them can
bring the ball over half court and from then it's just,
you know, you're just swinging it around and trying to
find shots.
Speaker 1: So I wonder what it would look like if you
put Jonathan kaminga in Quentin Post or Moody spot of like,
I'd probably say I just wanted to be ultra bigs, Like,
let's put him in for Moody? What is that?
Speaker 2: Right? Like? Because then you're then you're like, what six it?
I guess Draymon's the shortest guy by quite a bit
in that group. Maybe Butler, I don't know. Yeah, that's
a good one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, God, I hope we see the one that you outlaid. Though,
before we get to predictions, is there anything anyone else
about this team we haven't discussed that you think warrants
some discussion.
Speaker 2: That we haven't discussed. We've covered a fair amount of ground.
Speaker 1: But well, do you want to repeat anything? If you
want to repeat anything you said, feel free.
Speaker 2: Well, the two things that I flagged before I realized
we were going to hit him earlier. It's just a
really big year for Pajemski, not just because like we're
going to be looking at extensions a year from now,
but just because of what they need on on offense.
And like, you know, I'm not I'm not super optimistic,
but I think he has the best chance to be
the guy that can facilitate and and you know, be
a real on and off ball threat. So big, big
deal for him to just show he's more than like
a really good on the margins like contributor to winning,
Like can you do the conspicuous stuff offensively? We'll see
And then I think we've alluded to it. Just the
general lack of athleticism on this team is like staggering,
especially in the starting five where whether it's Pods or
Moody that's at the two, like you don't really have
not really, you don't even have anything close to like
an above average like run and jump athlete, partly because
four of those dudes are on the wrong side of
thirty five, but also because even like Moody and Pajemski
are not above average, you know, conventional athletes. So it's
it's been a long time since we've seen a very
good team that's like this slow and groundbound. So I
don't know what that's gonna result in, but just something
to note.
Speaker 1: So, how many games do you have the Warriors winning
and where do you see them landing in the larger
context of the Western Conference for the for the regular season.
Speaker 2: So I I'm gonna tell you about my journey. You ready.
A couple of weeks ago, I said forty seven, And
that's just because I couldn't get past the collective age
of their best players and what that meant for like
just a full season of availability. I'm bumping that to
forty nine because I just I think that the best
minutes for this team when everybody's healthy, are going to
be as good as anyone in the West except for
Oklahoma City. They played it like a sixty win pace
with Butler last year, Kevin Pelton pegg him for fifty
six wins based on just them having like ten break
even or better players by his metric. Now, I'd push
back on that and say, like cool, but what they
clearly don't have a couple things that none of the
like those guys being above average players, like they don't
provide it, like the playmaking stuff and the athleticism. So
I'm going to forty nine. I do think like they're
they they when healthy are gonna be really really good.
I just like they can't. They're not gonna have all
their guys like for a lot of the season, right,
Like that's just I have to price that in somehow.
Speaker 1: So where do you think, like what is going to
be their seed range in the West? Top four for sure?
Speaker 2: For yeah, I think top six. I think they're they're
in that group. I don't know what forty nine typically
gets you. That's that's probably is that even top six?
I know? Right? Uh yeah, that's I don't know, that's
four or five maybe?
Speaker 1: Yeah, So let's see what happened last year. So the
Nuggets were four and won fifty last year with the
four and the five seed one fIF so forty nine
would get you six?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think I think right around there,
like it's they could be they could potentially be better
than everyone but the thunder right, Like that's on the table,
I think, you know, especially like.
Speaker 1: You this oversimplifies it, but you did just reference it,
like how many games are not even so like let's
not even isoly like how many games of Steff gonna miss?
How many Jimmy play? How many games are there are
the four guys the Horford, Draymond, Jimmy, Butler, Steph going
to play together?
Speaker 2: Like is it half the season is it forty one.
You know that's I would set the over under it
right just right there, because one of the four, whether
it's you know, Horford's out for fifteen just because he's
not playing back to backs or what however, many there
are like he's just rule him out and all the
rest of those guys are like, is anyone gonna play
seventy And like I think by design they're gonna stagger
it so that okay, tonight, Jimmy, it's your night off, right,
or like that's just gonna be like purposeful. So yeah,
if all four, if forty one starts to sound high,
the more the more you we kind of game it out.
Speaker 1: Is there a team, like a perspective playoff opponent that
you find to be and you could cover it from
different ends of the spectrum. That's excuse me, particularly interesting
to where if you, oh, the wars are better matchup
for them than expected, and there is there is there
a team in the non OKC division that especially troubles
you as a playoff opponent.
Speaker 2: I mean, they've played the Thunder fairly well, which doesn't
make any sense at all. I got to small sample there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's also just like even when the thunder
Gold dual big, they're not like that big perimeter rotation,
so I know that they're built athletically to kind of
run rough shot out with the Warriors, or maybe that
has something to do with it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I would just default to, like I
think Houston's a problem just just because of the athleticism
in the length I think Minnesota is. I mean, they
played both of these last year, so we sort of
have pretty good evidence that, like it's not easy for
the Warriors to play against teams that are young, athletic
play hard, Like that's just tough. On the other side,
like a team like the Clippers, where it's like you
don't want Jimmy Butler chasing Anthony Edwards, but I'm alright
with Butler on like Kawhi because going to try to
beat you with strength and position, and Butler's okay there,
and like hardened is someone the Warriors have faced a
billion times and so they kind of have a rough
idea of what to do there. So like the Lakers
are another one where like the bigger like Luca as
like you know, he's impossible to guard, but like they
kind of they're better against that type of superstar than
just someone that's young and can outrun and out jump
you in his six' eight and has fifty foot, Arms
like that's just that's their. Kryptonite so Like dallas is
a who's the most fascinating if they've ran Into, dallas
like that would be a because just a, team that
would be a good test for like how big does
a team have to be before it like really messes
with The warriors who have just gone small and dominated
in the. Past dallas, Is dallas could get really.
Speaker 1: BIG i don't know If kyrie is not healthy at that,
point they have to go really.
Speaker 2: Big, yeah and then If kyrie is, healthy who's garden
him That that's that's a big. Issue so, yeah that.
FASCINATING i Think dallas IS i don't know how that
would possibly shake. Out maybe that's like a unfortunately that
might be a play in matchup for The warriors if
that's what. Happens but how do you feels about them
against The?
Speaker 1: Nuggets do you think the post can Make Nicola jokic?
Speaker 2: Uncomfortable you're gonna Pull jokic out. Further he wants to
come on the. Floor they'll demoralize him by you, know
just drilling threes in his. Face, YEAH i. Don't The
nuggets are just they're kind of the same problem for.
Everybody just just what do you do With jokic because
they'll just solve.
Speaker 1: YOU i don't.
Speaker 2: Know i'm okay With draymond And horford as the guys
you're trying to Wrangle jokic, with and everybody else is
just kind of, LIKE i don't, know stay.
Speaker 1: HOME i.
Speaker 2: Guess, YEAH i hadn't thought about. Them that's an interesting, one.
Speaker 1: Mister Grant hughes of The Hardwood Knox. Podcast end Of Bleacher.
Report CAN i get one More warriors prediction from you
for this coming? Season?
Speaker 2: Uh Because i'm gonna give you two. ONE i think
they're more likely to win sixty games than being the
play in just just acknowledging like the high and low
ends of the spectrum for. THEM i think them hitting
a stupid number of wins somehow is likelier than them
being like a forty, two forty three win.
Speaker 1: Team IF i told you That, Steph, draymond And Jimmy
butler all and Even horford let's say let's say he
only misses the back to, backs they all qualify for.
Awards sixty five. Games, WELL i Mean.
Speaker 2: Peltons pelton's got him at fifty six with less than,
That SO i, think, yeah that's that's when you're in
the mid to high, fifties, right, like and who, Knows
like they're not gonna win sixty. Games it's just more
likely than them being like the ten. SEED i, think
barring everybody gets. Hurt the other, one Dan Quentin, post
is gonna have a game where he makes ten. Threes
you think about, That it's happened ten seventy times IN nba.
History there's like most of those Are Stephan klay like
not kidding the. MAJORITY i think.
Speaker 1: There's got to be A. Jr smith one in, there.
Speaker 2: Right probably The dame has, One Zach lavine has. One you,
know he's on par with those. Guys so he's made,
six AND i think there's there's gonna be games Where
horford doesn't play And post has earned a bigger. Role
ten feels like sufficiently. BOLD i think he can make
ten threes in a game like ten.
Speaker 1: For how many to do?
Speaker 2: It not a? Lot damn under thirty to get you.
Speaker 1: Make ten threes another thirty, minutes that would be.
Speaker 2: Incredible we'll we'll just throw aside all the ridiculous clay
like point points in a certain number of minute stats
that are. THERE i think he can go ten for
fourteen in a. GAME i think that's that's. Uh that
has a a fifteen percent likelihood of actually, Happening So
i'm gonna predict.
Speaker 1: It mister G, hughes this was. Great thank you so
much for taking the time to come on and speak with.
Me are are you able just to tell our audience
they can find you and all the fantastic work that you.
Speaker 2: Do you're gonna want to check out The Hardwood knocks,
podcast WHERE i talk usually less than. THIS i felt
like my voice is. Sore you can follow me On
blue sky it's on the. SCREEN i don't know what
my handle. IS i don't.
Speaker 1: Care it's At Grant hues and they're thinking like audio
is are bread and, Butter so you need to cater
to that.
Speaker 2: Audience oh that's. Right, NO i want everybody to watch.
This so if you, aren't then guess. What you don't
get to follow me Retweeting Hardwood knocks related, content reskating
jokes on, sorry reskeating on the.
Speaker 1: Skyline, yeah that's.
Speaker 2: IT i write A bleacher report so do you people know?
THAT i, think and, uh, yeah that's pretty much. It
check out the. Podcast it's a good. PODCAST i think
if you like this, episode you'll find several of them
are somewhat.
Speaker 1: SIMILAR i do sometimes wonder what's the value add in
us telling people to subscribe and rate and review at
the end of these because if you've made it to
like the end of the episode and you've never listened to,
IT i just, wonder, like what's the percentage of people
that haven't hit subscribe or they're in the middle of
the episode if if they're.
Speaker 2: New BUT i would, say if you don't listen to
the end of the, episode you don't get to hear
us wringing our hands over like what's this all? For
so that's you, know THAT'S i feel like that makes
it relatable because it's a real bonus a. People so,
yeah listen to the.
Speaker 1: End until next, time and as, always shout out To
frankne La quina and apologies To Jared.
Speaker 2: Allen