Speaker 1: The question is, are the Uranians going to use this
Speaker 1: right and they're going to weaponize it and use it
Speaker 1: against us? And who knows? I mean, there's it's speculation,
Speaker 1: but think about this, that's a finite amount of uranium.
Speaker 1: It's a it's a fair amount in rich uranium, but
Speaker 1: it's a finite amount anyway. Right at this stage, especially
Speaker 1: when you are operating against two nuclear nations, it would
Speaker 1: be near suicidal to load up a finite number of
Speaker 1: weapons with your remaining enriched uranium and conduct strikes. The
Speaker 1: Iranians are not suicidal. In fact, they are among all
Speaker 1: our enemies, possibly the most rational of actors. I mean
Speaker 1: by the Chinese, of course, I mean they're there, yeah,
Speaker 1: very you know, they haven't stayed in power this long
Speaker 1: through doing purely crazy shit.
Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes, an't you
Speaker 2: a politics? A special one because we missed them so much.
Speaker 2: Andy Milburn's here, the man, the myth, the legend. I
Speaker 2: wanted to get his take on what went down over
Speaker 2: the weekend with you know, the United States bombing the
Speaker 2: nuclear sites and fod out Naton's and Isfahan. Obviously, you
Speaker 2: guys know what went down. Be two bombers, fourteen gbus
Speaker 2: you know, the big boy bunker Busters and thirty Tomahawks
Speaker 2: from a submarine. Andy, what's going on? How are you? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Hey, d Well. First of all, great to be back.
Speaker 1: And I'm sorry that my compotres are not here too,
Speaker 1: because I think it puts undue pressure on the audience
Speaker 1: just to have me here waxing lyrical. But on the
Speaker 1: other hand, I'm happy to do so. And just a
Speaker 1: couple of preliminary, preliminary comments. I was caught unawares by
Speaker 1: the strike. No one gave me a heads up, and
Speaker 1: actually I was mid flight between Tampa and Read and
Speaker 1: spent a delightful twenty four hours in Istanbul as air
Speaker 1: traffic controllers decided, or rather the powers that be decided
Speaker 1: which flights to cancel, which as space was going to
Speaker 1: remain open, And so I got into Read early hours
Speaker 1: of yesterday morning and promptly had to go to work,
Speaker 1: which has made my week so far delightful. And by
Speaker 1: the way, you mentioned Isfahan, and I do not totally
Speaker 1: arbitrarily want to say that that brings back memories myself.
Speaker 1: I was, oddly enough, and I may be certainly in
Speaker 1: a minority here among former US veterans. But I have
Speaker 1: spent time in Isfahan, and I happen to have spent
Speaker 1: time in Isfahan during a missile attack than this case
Speaker 1: by the iraqis, which tells you how long ago it
Speaker 1: was nineteen eighty eight from the War of the Cities. Wow,
Speaker 1: it's a beautiful, yeah, beautiful city, absolutely lovely, which is
Speaker 1: not making any comments about the strikes themselves, which I
Speaker 1: know we're going to talk about.
Speaker 2: So what.
Speaker 1: Questions you have? Do you do you want me to
Speaker 1: just to launch it?
Speaker 2: I think the biggest thing, I think obviously the seasfire right,
Speaker 2: whether it holds or not. But I guess we could
Speaker 2: talk about that after because the big news that trump that,
Speaker 2: for lack of a better word, was the DIA assessment
Speaker 2: that got leaked and reported on by CNN that stated
Speaker 2: that the arranged nuclear program is basically set back a
Speaker 2: few to several months. I think that was the wording.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so, and two, just by way of our
Speaker 1: expectation management, I don't have any insights, and certainly if
Speaker 1: I did have insights, I mean I do have insights,
Speaker 1: of course I do. What I mean is I don't
Speaker 1: have any access information if I did. Of course, I
Speaker 1: couldn't share it here, but you will notice that there
Speaker 1: are many views on this particular topic, and so I
Speaker 1: will simply express an opinion. Before the strike even took place,
Speaker 1: US intelligence, former intelligence officials opined that the most that
Speaker 1: even the US could do with the GBU fifty seven,
Speaker 1: which is the massive ordinance penetrator, which is actually what
Speaker 1: we dropped, the most that we could do was set
Speaker 1: the program back. I think you probably remember those comments,
Speaker 1: and in fact you've had guests on air, former agency
Speaker 1: guys who said the same thing. Well, that seems likely
Speaker 1: to be the case for a number of reasons. One
Speaker 1: is that when some of the planning of a decade
Speaker 1: or so ago, when the first topic of striking, the
Speaker 1: first time that the topic of striking Iran's nuclear facilities
Speaker 1: came up, it was you know, it was possible that
Speaker 1: the centrifuges were within range, or it was judged that
Speaker 1: these centrifuges were within range at the GBU fifty seven.
Speaker 1: But since then, and as you can imagine, the Iranians
Speaker 1: have dug deeper literally all right. And so experts opene
Speaker 1: now open source that while the limited at the penetration
Speaker 1: limit of the massive ordinance penetrated. The GBU fifty seven
Speaker 1: dropped by itself, admittedly is sixty five meters right, and
Speaker 1: they estimate that the centrifuge isn't.
Speaker 2: For dow.
Speaker 1: For example, are at least ninety five to one hundred
Speaker 1: meters deep, which means that they're about thirty meters on
Speaker 1: the outside. Okay, Now, there's a couple of ways to
Speaker 1: mitigate that. One is to drop two of these bombs
Speaker 1: almost at once, I mean, one right after the other,
Speaker 1: so that one penetrates into the you know, the creative
Speaker 1: form by the other, and that seems to have been
Speaker 1: the tactic here. By the way, the B two is
Speaker 1: the only aircraft that can carry these things. I mean,
Speaker 1: they're thirty thousand pounds of ease. So you imagine a
Speaker 1: B two carrying two that's sixty thousand pounds amazing, you know,
Speaker 1: fifteen tons of explosive yeah wild.
Speaker 2: I think if they said it's like two thousand pounds
Speaker 2: of tungsten at the top of the the.
Speaker 1: Word yeah, which you know, which adds to its penetration capability.
Speaker 1: So you know, hard to say. I mean, if if
Speaker 1: things had gone exactly according to plan, and one had
Speaker 1: been dropped on top of the other. In each case,
Speaker 1: I think fourteen, yeah, fourteen bombs were dropped by seven
Speaker 1: b twos then, although not on or on Furdell.
Speaker 2: I think twelve out of the fourteen were on four
Speaker 2: to zero.
Speaker 1: Of twelve out of fourteen, Okay, in any case, Yes,
Speaker 1: it's it's hard to say conclusively whether that plan should
Speaker 1: have worked, right, but it's certainly believable, credible that that
Speaker 1: they they you know, they didn't quite reach the centrifuges themselves.
Speaker 1: I don't know if THEDIA leaked report what it's based on,
Speaker 1: but I assume it's based on more than speculation, right,
Speaker 1: I assume it's based on some kind of battle damage assessment.
Speaker 1: But let me just say absolutely credible that that we've
Speaker 1: set the Iranians back months but haven't destroyed the new
Speaker 1: site completely. And I can't explain why the Israelis have
Speaker 1: come out with a different estimate.
Speaker 2: They just did.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you know, they were a little more a
Speaker 1: little more optimistic, and I don't, you know, who knows
Speaker 1: what the truth is or whether we will find out
Speaker 1: in the near future. Of course, the you know, the timing,
Speaker 1: the timing was as perfect as we can expect to
Speaker 1: get it, except that this didn't happen five to ten
Speaker 1: years ago before the sites had been buried deep yet
Speaker 1: and by that mean as perfect as we can expect it.
Speaker 1: And I'm sure that Mark and Mick have already commented
Speaker 1: on this. You know, we've always there's been three things
Speaker 1: holding us back from striking nuclear Iran's nuclear facilities before.
Speaker 1: One is essentially for fear of repercussions, not fear, but
Speaker 1: for concerned repercussions from Iran's proxies his BALLA, but more
Speaker 1: notably the sheer militia in Iran, and that risk, I
Speaker 1: mean that hasn't I wouldn't say that stopped us alone,
Speaker 1: but it was certainly it was certainly something that we
Speaker 1: took in consideration. Of course, the Rainier proxies are now
Speaker 1: on the ropes for the time being, so the timing
Speaker 1: was good from that perspective. Secondly, of course, you know,
Speaker 1: you always run a risk when you penetrate in enemies
Speaker 1: integrated their defense systems, You run a risk of being
Speaker 1: shot down. And in this case, the Israelis have you know,
Speaker 1: they cleared the way for us. And the third part
Speaker 1: of this was, yes, we were concerned about the death
Speaker 1: to which the centrifuges had been sunk and how much
Speaker 1: damage we could actually do. Well. I don't know the
Speaker 1: details on this, but apparently the Israelis had already created
Speaker 1: the sites, which presumably meant that the bombs that we
Speaker 1: dropped had less distance to penetrate. I don't know. I
Speaker 1: can't say conclusively again whether that part is correct or not.
Speaker 1: And it was also it was also well timed in
Speaker 1: a sense from the point of view that it seemed
Speaker 1: like as though negotiations were going nowhere. I mean, let's
Speaker 1: be honest, it's taken two decades of both negotiating, planning,
Speaker 1: and threatening to bring us to this point. If the
Speaker 1: Iranians have lost their ability to generate nuclear weapons, I
Speaker 1: think that's a good thing for the region. You know,
Speaker 1: they have the ways that the way that they threatened
Speaker 1: the region up to this point is by through a
Speaker 1: massive array of ballistic missiles. So that was the other
Speaker 1: reason too, right, we were concerned potentially about missile strikes
Speaker 1: on Allied countries or even US spaces, missile win drone strikes,
Speaker 1: and yet their inventory has been drastically reduced, hasn't been
Speaker 1: obliterated in tally, but it has been reduced by the
Speaker 1: Israeli strikes. So the timing was was propitious, but you know,
Speaker 1: we gained. We were dealing with a physics problem and
Speaker 1: it's hard to say whether how successful we were. Time
Speaker 1: will tell.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, And what you mentioned with the Israeli called
Speaker 2: me out saying that it's set it back many years.
Speaker 2: That's from the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission through the Prime
Speaker 2: Minister's office to talk a little bit about like the
Speaker 2: geopolitical angle of this, because the DIA assessment early assessment
Speaker 2: came out yesterday and you need to get it.
Speaker 1: I cut this stuff out of notion. Okay, go ahead,
Speaker 1: I'm listening.
Speaker 2: So the DIA assessment, the early assessment that came out
Speaker 2: yesterday that Trump's been refuting pretty pretty hard, pretty viscerally,
Speaker 2: i'd say, pretty adamantly says that it came back only
Speaker 2: a few months obviously compared to the Israeli one. It
Speaker 2: is like, is this Israel trying to like play Kate
Speaker 2: Trump to try and just to be like, hey, yeah, no,
Speaker 2: we did this and it worked, and you know, the
Speaker 2: regions better for it, because I do think it sets
Speaker 2: while starting from last year bombing Iran sets like a
Speaker 2: pretty dangerous precedent, like where Israel could just like pick
Speaker 2: up and bomb them whenever they feel like it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, hard to say, I mean suddenly Netniel, who was
Speaker 1: urging Trump to do this. But I like to think
Speaker 1: that the United States did this fall for our own reasons,
Speaker 1: because it was in our own national interests. In again,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think anyone can get sentimental about
Speaker 1: Iran losing its ability to generate nuclear weapons and has
Speaker 1: proven itself to be a to be a difficult actor
Speaker 1: to say the least in the region. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, yes, and we want to avoid for our
Speaker 1: own interests. And this is me speaking obviously, not speaking
Speaker 1: for the administration, but we want to avoid being closely
Speaker 1: aligned to Israel. You know, here I am in Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia is an ally of ours too. There is
Speaker 1: a great deal of sensitivity about how closely from the
Speaker 1: Arab world here, you know, how closely the United States
Speaker 1: is aligning itself with the Israeli policy. I think we
Speaker 1: have to be warey of that, and we have to
Speaker 1: be our own actors if we are to maintain credibility
Speaker 1: in the region. And by the way, whether we like
Speaker 1: it or not, you know, the strike did help bolster
Speaker 1: US credibility in the region. You know, we actually followed
Speaker 1: through and did something. We did something that was you know,
Speaker 1: outside Iran and outside of Iran's proxies, is widely regarded
Speaker 1: in the Middle East, to include among Golf States and
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia as being generally a good thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in terms of blowback, do you think at some point,
Speaker 2: I know, there's obviously a ceasefire right now, but Iran's
Speaker 2: gotta be thinking about doing something, right I mean, I
Speaker 2: can't really see them just cowering and just be like, Okay,
Speaker 2: we'll give up everything. You know, we need to give
Speaker 2: up and every you guys want our ballistic missiles too,
Speaker 2: We could you know, all terms, all types of like
Speaker 2: actual self defense to not just the nuclear program. Obviously
Speaker 2: the nuclear programs no bueno. But what do you think
Speaker 2: the blowback looks like?
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great question. And I don't know. I
Speaker 1: do know that the regime must right now be feeling
Speaker 1: quite desperate. You know, they're not now let me let
Speaker 1: me rephrase that, okay, but they I mean they have
Speaker 1: there's certainly there's certainly on the ropes has certainly had
Speaker 1: a severe disadvantage. They haven't lost all of their ability
Speaker 1: to cause harm and they still have a significant missile
Speaker 1: inventory and Hezbolla as a matter of time before Hesbala
Speaker 1: and even Hamas are back on their feet again. You know,
Speaker 1: I mean, the amount of anger that it's been generated
Speaker 1: in the last two years by Israeli actions, for instance
Speaker 1: in the Middle Least is you know, it's not going
Speaker 1: to die away, all right, and there's going to be
Speaker 1: certainly there's going to be a resurgence that these two groups.
Speaker 1: They're not down and out, but it's going to be
Speaker 1: a while before Iran can really flex its muscles again,
Speaker 1: if you know, if it can in the near future.
Speaker 1: So that's a long winded way of saying that I
Speaker 1: don't know, but I just want to remind listeners again
Speaker 1: of the Vincennes incident, which is back in nineteen eighty
Speaker 1: nine when the us AS Vincennes mistakenly shot down in
Speaker 1: an Iranian air bus with some two hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: civilian passengers on board, and almost a decade later, the Iranians,
Speaker 1: one assumes, planted a bomb in the van of the
Speaker 1: skipper of the Vincennes, the skipper at the time in
Speaker 1: San Diego. He would turned out he didn't get in
Speaker 1: the vehicle as his wife and she was civillly injured.
Speaker 1: But I think, you know, it's just an example of
Speaker 1: how the Iranians are willing to play, or perhaps that's
Speaker 1: the only game they can play sometimes, is the long
Speaker 1: game to exact vengeance. But I don't you know, to them,
Speaker 1: Israel is the big enemy. It doesn't mean that we
Speaker 1: have we've we're lily white as far as the concern.
Speaker 1: We did just strike their nuclear facilities, but I don't
Speaker 1: think striking back in the United States is going to
Speaker 1: be a top priority. The missile attack on Aladide was
Speaker 1: a pro former act done, as I think we all know,
Speaker 1: for the sake of saving face. They gave Katar heads
Speaker 1: up that it was going to happen. Only fifteen missiles
Speaker 1: were fired, and they were fired in a half heart
Speaker 1: hit type attempt. Right. It wasn't really a serious attempt.
Speaker 1: It was just look, okay, now we're going to write back.
Speaker 1: It was for domestic consumption. And you know, the Uranian media,
Speaker 1: state owned media, of course, the trumpeting that we inflicted,
Speaker 1: that we suffered casualties, et cetera, et cetera. But everyone
Speaker 1: knows that didn't happen. Now, if they really wanted to
Speaker 1: strike back at us, they would have gone after our
Speaker 1: bases in Iraq using sheer militia drones, you know, which
Speaker 1: they'd done before to greater effect or Syria. And by
Speaker 1: the way, bases in Iraq and Syria are not protected
Speaker 1: by patriot missile bat batteries, the one in Aladid is.
Speaker 1: So it was kind of if they it was a
Speaker 1: safe way to be seen to exact vengeance and look good.
Speaker 2: Let me ask why aren't those other bases in Iraq
Speaker 2: and Syria not protected by patriot batteries?
Speaker 1: Yeah, great question. Well, there's only limited number of patriot
Speaker 1: batteries to go round, right And now they may have
Speaker 1: I you know, I I may my my information may
Speaker 1: now be outdated. But but that that that was That
Speaker 1: was certainly the case, you know, a few months ago.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And and in any case, you know, even protected by
Speaker 1: patriot batteries is not when you when it comes to
Speaker 1: short range head offense, patriots only do a certain amount
Speaker 1: of good and they don't. They are not good at
Speaker 1: blocking drones. So short range other short range missiles and
Speaker 1: that's the threat really and Syria and in Iraq drones
Speaker 1: and other shorter range missiles fined by local militias. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's not some delicious but Iraq certainly.
Speaker 2: Also another bit of the from the assessment, and even
Speaker 2: before the early assessment got released yesterday about the four
Speaker 2: hundred kilograms of enriched geranium like supposal, we don't know
Speaker 2: where that is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, I know there's a great deal
Speaker 1: of angst about that, and it's I I would say this, Okay,
Speaker 1: I think it's the right thing to do to give
Speaker 1: them a heads up. Okay, that kind of keeps things
Speaker 1: again on this Not not a gentleman's playing. That's not
Speaker 1: what I'm trying to say. What I'm trying to say
Speaker 1: is that, hey, with the United States, it's saying we
Speaker 1: live by values, we will save lives where we can,
Speaker 1: but on the other hand, we are going to take
Speaker 1: out your nuclear program. All right. The downside was four
Speaker 1: hundred kilograms of apparently we don't know for sure, but
Speaker 1: four hundred kilograms in rich uranium escaped. Well, the question
Speaker 1: is are the Uranians going to use this? Right, They're
Speaker 1: going to weaponize it and use it against us, and
Speaker 1: who knows. I mean, there's it's speculation, But think about this,
Speaker 1: that's a finite amount of uranium. It's a lot, it's
Speaker 1: a fair amount of in enriched uranium, but it's a
Speaker 1: finite amount anyway, all right, at this stage, especially when
Speaker 1: you are operating against two nuclear nations, it would be
Speaker 1: near suicidal to load up a finite number of weapons
Speaker 1: with your remaining enriched uranium and conduct strikes. And the
Speaker 1: Iranians are not suicidal. In fact, they are among all
Speaker 1: our enemies, possibly the most rational of actors. I mean
Speaker 1: by the Chinese, of course, I mean, but they're they're
Speaker 1: very you know, they haven't stayed in power this long
Speaker 1: through doing purely crazy shit.
Speaker 2: So what I meant by like not strapping like sixty
Speaker 2: percent of rich geranium to like ballistic missiles and shooting
Speaker 2: them into Tel Aviv, but I meant like, you know,
Speaker 2: bringing them to you know, one of their shadow sites
Speaker 2: or they There is some reporting that isfahan Is is
Speaker 2: deeper than ford Ou where their centrifuges are, so like
Speaker 2: bringing it right, bringing it there and like enriching it
Speaker 2: and continuing their program.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think that's always a risk and
Speaker 1: you know, we know of those three sides, right, but
Speaker 1: there are there's now reports that the program may be
Speaker 1: more distributed than we thought, that there are more than
Speaker 1: those three sides, so you know, the potential risks multiplying.
Speaker 1: We did. We did what we could, but the intelligence
Speaker 1: that we had at the time, but the time marches
Speaker 1: on and the Iranians, as I said, are they you know,
Speaker 1: they they're pretty smart.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: People, Again, the regime state empowered this long and I'm
Speaker 1: sure they haven't punted all their eggs into just three baskets.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think we can. We can go down
Speaker 1: paths that lead us to many risky scenarios that have
Speaker 1: resulted from this strike. But nevertheless, I still, you know,
Speaker 1: I believe it was a It was a good thing,
Speaker 1: even if we just sent back, set the program back,
Speaker 1: because it's sent a very powerful message that we are
Speaker 1: serious about doing this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, barakravated the Axios, not the other unit. Eighty two
Speaker 2: hundred news reporter, I mean the Oxios reporter wrote just
Speaker 2: recently Israel Israeli official with direct knowledge says they intercepted
Speaker 2: comms to just Iranian military officials are lying to their
Speaker 2: political leadership about the extent of the damage at the nuclear.
Speaker 1: Sites, oh right, lying as far as it's worse than
Speaker 1: they're saying, right, yeah, yeah, yeah, again who knows, multiple reports, right, But.
Speaker 2: That also came out like literally minutes after the Israel
Speaker 2: Atomic Energy Commission came out and said that it's going
Speaker 2: to take many years for them to come back. So,
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sure there's a pr pr aspect to
Speaker 2: all this. And like you know, who's winning the spin
Speaker 2: game because you see any around what's going on there.
Speaker 2: You know, they're touting it as like the victory over
Speaker 2: Israel day there, right, Like they have like a whole
Speaker 2: rally and stuff.
Speaker 1: So we'll think about think about the problems that the
Speaker 1: Iranian regime is having with its domestic audience. You know,
Speaker 1: we've talked about this that even in its pro former elections,
Speaker 1: it is losing, it has lost ground in the last
Speaker 1: few years, or the electorate has simply not bothered to
Speaker 1: show up, and there have been you know, there is
Speaker 1: a significant opposition group within Iran and they're fed up
Speaker 1: with the economy being and the toilet. They're fed up
Speaker 1: with with the IRGC's adventurism overseas, which is costing the
Speaker 1: state in financial terms and in terms of being a
Speaker 1: political parah and has done, you know, since the birth
Speaker 1: of the Islamic Republic. And remember too that Iran has
Speaker 1: a highly educated middle class. You know, it's I wouldn't
Speaker 1: say unusual, but it's in a minority among Middle Eastern
Speaker 1: countries to have such an advanced middle class. And you know,
Speaker 1: they're not They've got to be careful how they exhibit
Speaker 1: their opposition to the regime because of course we've seen
Speaker 1: how the administration exerts crackdowns. But on the other hand,
Speaker 1: it's real and the Iranian regime is concerned about it.
Speaker 1: You know, you've probably heard anecdotal reports or even seen
Speaker 1: YouTube videos about locals sharing even the Israeli strikes in
Speaker 1: military facilities. Their discontent is real, and the administration is
Speaker 1: concerned about that. So it isn't they're just not. They're
Speaker 1: not just looking at what they're going to do as
Speaker 1: far as taking on their geopolitical opponents. They're also worry
Speaker 1: about how they appear to their domestic audience right now, Yeah,
Speaker 1: and they are domestic audience does not appear to want
Speaker 1: more even now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you could say that too about the United States
Speaker 2: domestic audience as well, right, Like.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, sixty percent opposed, only sixteen percent were for
Speaker 1: US taking action against Iran until we did take action,
Speaker 1: and then I believe the numbers are much higher. I
Speaker 1: never realized. So that was it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, I'm I mean hopefully that's it. Right. Uh yeah,
Speaker 2: there was one more piece I wanted to talk to
Speaker 2: you about. I'm just looking over Twitter to see if
Speaker 2: something popped off. Hex Seth just announced about an hour
Speaker 2: ago that they're gonna task the FBI to investigate the
Speaker 2: leak of the DIA assessment. It seems like there is
Speaker 2: a bit of a back and forth kind of going
Speaker 2: on in the annals of government where you know, people
Speaker 2: aren't exactly willing to just go by whatever sounds the best, right,
Speaker 2: Because if I hadn't bet money, I would bet that
Speaker 2: it's closer a few months rather than a few years
Speaker 2: where this nuclear program is set back. And I just
Speaker 2: don't know what the endgame looks like. Is it just
Speaker 2: like every time we feel like it, or Israel feels
Speaker 2: like it, we can hit Iran And uh no.
Speaker 1: I mean in Finnis, I think you know this was
Speaker 1: two decades in coming. D I think I mean, the
Speaker 1: generations of US planners have have planned this particular strike,
Speaker 1: and it was conducting a very sophisticated way. I think
Speaker 1: it was. It was in that sense, a one off,
Speaker 1: and the timing was was absolutely right. I don't know
Speaker 1: what the motivation is for leaking that report. It's kind
Speaker 1: of interesting, and I don't know if even if it
Speaker 1: was deliberately leaked. I assume of course it was. And
Speaker 1: I find it highly unusual that there have been so
Speaker 1: many leaks of secret and top secret information from US
Speaker 1: from D O D in the last you know, the
Speaker 1: last few months, the last five months. It's it's certainly
Speaker 1: it's a strange strand I mean it is to say
Speaker 1: it's unusual as an exaggeration. I mean, you don't really
Speaker 1: you don't really see that. Yeah, only within dud.
Speaker 2: Oh. And going back, I remember what I wanted to
Speaker 2: tell you, There have been reports of like the regime
Speaker 2: in Iran rounding up like seven hundred or so suspected
Speaker 2: Israeli agents, people that I guess helped facilitate stuff for
Speaker 2: the for Masad in Israel. So yeah, it does seem
Speaker 2: like they're very much cracking down. Also, last week I
Speaker 2: had a former marine. I keep having marines on this
Speaker 2: goddamn show. You gotta mix it up. John Hackett, who's yeah, yeah, No,
Speaker 2: that's it's another John Hackett. Actually yeah, And he said
Speaker 2: he's like they had a protest literally like once the
Speaker 2: bombing started, like there was a protest, anti regime protest,
Speaker 2: they started fucking snatching them up, and you haven't heard
Speaker 2: from them since literally within a day. While they're getting bombed,
Speaker 2: they were snatching up people who were like anti region,
Speaker 2: with anti regime sentiment. So again, like you know, this
Speaker 2: Iranian regime isn't exactly uh you know, fucking you know,
Speaker 2: mellows and gum drops.
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, the Ranian regime has kept people
Speaker 1: in line through executions and torture and mass incarceration since
Speaker 1: its birth. I mean, let's not let's not sightestep this issue.
Speaker 1: It's a it's a highly disruptive bad influence throughout the
Speaker 1: Middle East, malign and has been in despite every attempt
Speaker 1: to alter its course external attempt to alter its course,
Speaker 1: it has kept that course and has pursued a policy
Speaker 1: of military adventurism overseas at a great cost to regional stability.
Speaker 1: I mean, anyone who starts to get mushy eyed about
Speaker 1: Iran just needs to look the fact that the Iranians,
Speaker 1: you know, and of course the Russians subsequently extended and
Speaker 1: exacerbated the war in Syria, which yeah, you know, I've
Speaker 1: seen half a million deaths and a million and a
Speaker 1: half refugees. I mean more than that, actually a million
Speaker 1: and a half external refugees. I mean, it's just an
Speaker 1: incredible suffering over the course of the last fourteen years.
Speaker 1: That was that was Iran's playground, that was Hebola's playground.
Speaker 1: As you know.
Speaker 2: The interesting thing to see is like how Hezbola hasn't
Speaker 2: really done anything. I know they're in a bad way obviously,
Speaker 2: but I'm still I'm pretty sure they still have some
Speaker 2: of their rockets intact, right, and they're very close to Israel,
Speaker 2: and it's interesting how they kind of not.
Speaker 1: Done much well. I mean, I think they're probably having
Speaker 1: I would guess it's not just by the rockets, but
Speaker 1: come on, and control problems, succession of leadership problems, they whatever,
Speaker 1: who knows. I mean, the Urranians never had kind of
Speaker 1: carte blanche do it, don't do it, authority over Hisbolla
Speaker 1: and azraela was his own man. And we don't know
Speaker 1: how Isbolla has emerged from that, how it is now,
Speaker 1: but it's certainly probably not the right time viewed by
Speaker 1: most Hisbolla surviving. HASBOLLA leaders to pop its head about
Speaker 1: the parapet again.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could totally see there being a huge power
Speaker 2: vacuum there right now, right like people jostling for control
Speaker 2: or maybe not because like your number one target.
Speaker 1: List, Yeah, hard to tell. I mean they had Hasboala
Speaker 1: had a pretty a pretty well designed succession of command,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Remember used to say. I
Speaker 1: used to say that among all decapitation strikes, the one
Speaker 1: was likely to really have some last thing, in fact,
Speaker 1: was if Nazrala was taken out, Because he was he
Speaker 1: embodied his baller in a way that few other leaders
Speaker 1: embody their organization. And he was, you know, say what
Speaker 1: you like, but yes, a bad actor, but he was
Speaker 1: a highly talented, charismatic bad actor who will did extraordinary
Speaker 1: influence not just within his organization but throughout Lebanese politics
Speaker 1: and indeed throughout kind of the militant politics of the
Speaker 1: of the region. He was an icon, and so losing
Speaker 1: him undoubtedly put no one really thought that he would
Speaker 1: be lost. It's losing him undoubtedly has put his baller
Speaker 1: in the ropes for a while, and that is probably
Speaker 1: why you're not seeing any coherent decision making coming out
Speaker 1: of the organization, at least for the time being.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Andy, I mean I'm trying to think. I
Speaker 2: think I'm good. I think I have enough for all
Speaker 2: that I need.
Speaker 1: Well, well, so what I'm looking forward to reappearing with
Speaker 1: everyone else too. I can't wait for time.
Speaker 2: What do you think do you think is Iran comes
Speaker 2: back to the nuclear negotiation table?
Speaker 1: I mean, the question is did the nuclear negotiations go on?
Speaker 1: I mean, what do we negotiating about or for anymore?
Speaker 1: That's that's really the issue in honestly, it was kind
Speaker 1: of a half hearted approach by both sides, right, So
Speaker 1: I don't see there being more nuclear negotiations anytime soon,
Speaker 1: cerbtainly not under this administration.
Speaker 2: Andy Milburn, everybody check them out. The links are in
Speaker 2: the description grab his book, When the Tempest Gathers excellent memoir.
Speaker 2: When's the new book coming out?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, hopefully my publishers not watching right now. But
Speaker 1: he's just given me an extension to the end of
Speaker 1: the month, so it'll be coming out before the end
Speaker 1: of the year.
Speaker 2: All right, great, all right, so awesome, So we'll keep
Speaker 2: an eye out for that. Guys. Help support the Showpatreon
Speaker 2: dot com slash the Team House, both eyes On Geopolitics
Speaker 2: and The Teamhouse completely AD free, and a lot more
Speaker 2: perks that go with it. Of course, remember check out Andy.
Speaker 2: His links are into description. Andy's got a substack too.
Speaker 2: It's good and yeah, thanks Andy. This is awesome as usual.
Speaker 1: Yea, all the best everyone, see you see you again
Speaker 1: in a few days. Thanks dey, thank you.
Speaker 3: Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to
Speaker 3: you for a moment about how you can support the show.
Speaker 3: If you've been watching it enjoying it, but you'd like
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