WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:02.359 The question is, are the Uranians going to use this 2 00:00:02.560 --> 00:00:04.440 right and they're going to weaponize it and use it 3 00:00:04.480 --> 00:00:08.800 against us? And who knows? I mean, there's it's speculation, 4 00:00:09.080 --> 00:00:12.039 but think about this, that's a finite amount of uranium. 5 00:00:12.080 --> 00:00:14.640 It's a it's a fair amount in rich uranium, but 6 00:00:14.679 --> 00:00:18.519 it's a finite amount anyway. Right at this stage, especially 7 00:00:18.600 --> 00:00:21.640 when you are operating against two nuclear nations, it would 8 00:00:21.640 --> 00:00:26.719 be near suicidal to load up a finite number of 9 00:00:26.800 --> 00:00:34.840 weapons with your remaining enriched uranium and conduct strikes. The 10 00:00:34.880 --> 00:00:39.880 Iranians are not suicidal. In fact, they are among all 11 00:00:39.880 --> 00:00:43.560 our enemies, possibly the most rational of actors. I mean 12 00:00:43.600 --> 00:00:46.240 by the Chinese, of course, I mean they're there, yeah, 13 00:00:46.759 --> 00:00:50.479 very you know, they haven't stayed in power this long 14 00:00:50.640 --> 00:00:53.280 through doing purely crazy shit. 15 00:01:06.560 --> 00:01:09.079 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes, an't you 16 00:01:09.079 --> 00:01:11.840 a politics? A special one because we missed them so much. 17 00:01:11.920 --> 00:01:15.239 Andy Milburn's here, the man, the myth, the legend. I 18 00:01:15.280 --> 00:01:18.280 wanted to get his take on what went down over 19 00:01:18.319 --> 00:01:22.719 the weekend with you know, the United States bombing the 20 00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:29.640 nuclear sites and fod out Naton's and Isfahan. Obviously, you 21 00:01:29.640 --> 00:01:32.760 guys know what went down. Be two bombers, fourteen gbus 22 00:01:33.359 --> 00:01:37.319 you know, the big boy bunker Busters and thirty Tomahawks 23 00:01:37.319 --> 00:01:41.879 from a submarine. Andy, what's going on? How are you? Yeah? 24 00:01:42.040 --> 00:01:44.000 Hey, d Well. First of all, great to be back. 25 00:01:44.319 --> 00:01:48.719 And I'm sorry that my compotres are not here too, 26 00:01:48.840 --> 00:01:51.640 because I think it puts undue pressure on the audience 27 00:01:51.760 --> 00:01:55.079 just to have me here waxing lyrical. But on the 28 00:01:55.120 --> 00:01:58.640 other hand, I'm happy to do so. And just a 29 00:01:58.680 --> 00:02:04.719 couple of preliminary, preliminary comments. I was caught unawares by 30 00:02:04.760 --> 00:02:07.280 the strike. No one gave me a heads up, and 31 00:02:07.439 --> 00:02:12.840 actually I was mid flight between Tampa and Read and 32 00:02:13.360 --> 00:02:17.599 spent a delightful twenty four hours in Istanbul as air 33 00:02:17.680 --> 00:02:22.800 traffic controllers decided, or rather the powers that be decided 34 00:02:23.879 --> 00:02:28.159 which flights to cancel, which as space was going to 35 00:02:28.159 --> 00:02:32.120 remain open, And so I got into Read early hours 36 00:02:32.120 --> 00:02:35.000 of yesterday morning and promptly had to go to work, 37 00:02:35.039 --> 00:02:40.159 which has made my week so far delightful. And by 38 00:02:40.159 --> 00:02:46.520 the way, you mentioned Isfahan, and I do not totally 39 00:02:46.599 --> 00:02:53.280 arbitrarily want to say that that brings back memories myself. 40 00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:57.000 I was, oddly enough, and I may be certainly in 41 00:02:57.080 --> 00:03:00.479 a minority here among former US veterans. But I have 42 00:03:00.599 --> 00:03:03.240 spent time in Isfahan, and I happen to have spent 43 00:03:03.479 --> 00:03:08.520 time in Isfahan during a missile attack than this case 44 00:03:08.560 --> 00:03:11.080 by the iraqis, which tells you how long ago it 45 00:03:11.360 --> 00:03:14.199 was nineteen eighty eight from the War of the Cities. Wow, 46 00:03:14.199 --> 00:03:19.319 it's a beautiful, yeah, beautiful city, absolutely lovely, which is 47 00:03:20.159 --> 00:03:23.560 not making any comments about the strikes themselves, which I 48 00:03:23.560 --> 00:03:24.599 know we're going to talk about. 49 00:03:25.680 --> 00:03:26.120 So what. 50 00:03:27.759 --> 00:03:29.520 Questions you have? Do you do you want me to 51 00:03:29.560 --> 00:03:30.319 just to launch it? 52 00:03:30.439 --> 00:03:33.520 I think the biggest thing, I think obviously the seasfire right, 53 00:03:33.560 --> 00:03:35.240 whether it holds or not. But I guess we could 54 00:03:35.240 --> 00:03:39.039 talk about that after because the big news that trump that, 55 00:03:39.520 --> 00:03:42.639 for lack of a better word, was the DIA assessment 56 00:03:42.680 --> 00:03:47.120 that got leaked and reported on by CNN that stated 57 00:03:47.319 --> 00:03:51.639 that the arranged nuclear program is basically set back a 58 00:03:51.719 --> 00:03:54.800 few to several months. I think that was the wording. 59 00:03:55.319 --> 00:04:04.080 Yeah, yeah, so, and two, just by way of our 60 00:04:04.159 --> 00:04:08.879 expectation management, I don't have any insights, and certainly if 61 00:04:08.879 --> 00:04:11.280 I did have insights, I mean I do have insights, 62 00:04:11.479 --> 00:04:13.280 of course I do. What I mean is I don't 63 00:04:13.280 --> 00:04:16.000 have any access information if I did. Of course, I 64 00:04:16.000 --> 00:04:19.879 couldn't share it here, but you will notice that there 65 00:04:19.879 --> 00:04:23.199 are many views on this particular topic, and so I 66 00:04:23.279 --> 00:04:27.560 will simply express an opinion. Before the strike even took place, 67 00:04:28.519 --> 00:04:35.079 US intelligence, former intelligence officials opined that the most that 68 00:04:35.199 --> 00:04:38.279 even the US could do with the GBU fifty seven, 69 00:04:38.360 --> 00:04:41.279 which is the massive ordinance penetrator, which is actually what 70 00:04:41.360 --> 00:04:44.279 we dropped, the most that we could do was set 71 00:04:44.319 --> 00:04:47.439 the program back. I think you probably remember those comments, 72 00:04:47.480 --> 00:04:50.800 and in fact you've had guests on air, former agency 73 00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:57.519 guys who said the same thing. Well, that seems likely 74 00:04:58.439 --> 00:05:01.879 to be the case for a number of reasons. One 75 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:07.040 is that when some of the planning of a decade 76 00:05:07.160 --> 00:05:12.879 or so ago, when the first topic of striking, the 77 00:05:12.920 --> 00:05:16.040 first time that the topic of striking Iran's nuclear facilities 78 00:05:16.120 --> 00:05:20.279 came up, it was you know, it was possible that 79 00:05:20.480 --> 00:05:23.680 the centrifuges were within range, or it was judged that 80 00:05:23.759 --> 00:05:28.639 these centrifuges were within range at the GBU fifty seven. 81 00:05:29.560 --> 00:05:33.360 But since then, and as you can imagine, the Iranians 82 00:05:34.000 --> 00:05:41.000 have dug deeper literally all right. And so experts opene 83 00:05:41.079 --> 00:05:47.519 now open source that while the limited at the penetration 84 00:05:47.720 --> 00:05:52.199 limit of the massive ordinance penetrated. The GBU fifty seven 85 00:05:52.480 --> 00:05:56.680 dropped by itself, admittedly is sixty five meters right, and 86 00:05:56.720 --> 00:05:58.959 they estimate that the centrifuge isn't. 87 00:05:58.759 --> 00:05:59.680 For dow. 88 00:06:01.319 --> 00:06:04.279 For example, are at least ninety five to one hundred 89 00:06:04.360 --> 00:06:07.600 meters deep, which means that they're about thirty meters on 90 00:06:07.639 --> 00:06:11.319 the outside. Okay, Now, there's a couple of ways to 91 00:06:11.399 --> 00:06:15.079 mitigate that. One is to drop two of these bombs 92 00:06:15.399 --> 00:06:18.160 almost at once, I mean, one right after the other, 93 00:06:18.279 --> 00:06:22.759 so that one penetrates into the you know, the creative 94 00:06:22.800 --> 00:06:26.240 form by the other, and that seems to have been 95 00:06:26.319 --> 00:06:28.759 the tactic here. By the way, the B two is 96 00:06:28.800 --> 00:06:31.040 the only aircraft that can carry these things. I mean, 97 00:06:31.079 --> 00:06:33.639 they're thirty thousand pounds of ease. So you imagine a 98 00:06:33.720 --> 00:06:37.839 B two carrying two that's sixty thousand pounds amazing, you know, 99 00:06:37.879 --> 00:06:40.560 fifteen tons of explosive yeah wild. 100 00:06:41.040 --> 00:06:42.879 I think if they said it's like two thousand pounds 101 00:06:42.920 --> 00:06:45.480 of tungsten at the top of the the. 102 00:06:45.439 --> 00:06:51.240 Word yeah, which you know, which adds to its penetration capability. 103 00:06:51.639 --> 00:06:55.279 So you know, hard to say. I mean, if if 104 00:06:55.360 --> 00:07:00.199 things had gone exactly according to plan, and one had 105 00:07:00.199 --> 00:07:03.879 been dropped on top of the other. In each case, 106 00:07:03.920 --> 00:07:06.920 I think fourteen, yeah, fourteen bombs were dropped by seven 107 00:07:06.959 --> 00:07:12.639 b twos then, although not on or on Furdell. 108 00:07:12.360 --> 00:07:14.959 I think twelve out of the fourteen were on four 109 00:07:14.959 --> 00:07:15.399 to zero. 110 00:07:15.800 --> 00:07:19.000 Of twelve out of fourteen, Okay, in any case, Yes, 111 00:07:20.000 --> 00:07:26.759 it's it's hard to say conclusively whether that plan should 112 00:07:26.759 --> 00:07:34.279 have worked, right, but it's certainly believable, credible that that 113 00:07:34.319 --> 00:07:38.399 they they you know, they didn't quite reach the centrifuges themselves. 114 00:07:38.519 --> 00:07:42.399 I don't know if THEDIA leaked report what it's based on, 115 00:07:42.839 --> 00:07:45.879 but I assume it's based on more than speculation, right, 116 00:07:45.959 --> 00:07:49.560 I assume it's based on some kind of battle damage assessment. 117 00:07:50.560 --> 00:07:55.720 But let me just say absolutely credible that that we've 118 00:07:55.759 --> 00:07:59.879 set the Iranians back months but haven't destroyed the new 119 00:08:00.199 --> 00:08:03.319 site completely. And I can't explain why the Israelis have 120 00:08:03.360 --> 00:08:04.759 come out with a different estimate. 121 00:08:04.920 --> 00:08:05.360 They just did. 122 00:08:05.560 --> 00:08:08.839 Yeah, yeah, you know, they were a little more a 123 00:08:08.920 --> 00:08:13.519 little more optimistic, and I don't, you know, who knows 124 00:08:13.560 --> 00:08:16.759 what the truth is or whether we will find out 125 00:08:16.800 --> 00:08:21.480 in the near future. Of course, the you know, the timing, 126 00:08:22.319 --> 00:08:25.519 the timing was as perfect as we can expect to 127 00:08:25.519 --> 00:08:29.120 get it, except that this didn't happen five to ten 128 00:08:29.199 --> 00:08:32.200 years ago before the sites had been buried deep yet 129 00:08:32.360 --> 00:08:34.720 and by that mean as perfect as we can expect it. 130 00:08:35.000 --> 00:08:38.080 And I'm sure that Mark and Mick have already commented 131 00:08:38.200 --> 00:08:43.240 on this. You know, we've always there's been three things 132 00:08:43.240 --> 00:08:49.480 holding us back from striking nuclear Iran's nuclear facilities before. 133 00:08:49.559 --> 00:08:54.320 One is essentially for fear of repercussions, not fear, but 134 00:08:54.360 --> 00:09:00.679 for concerned repercussions from Iran's proxies his BALLA, but more 135 00:09:00.759 --> 00:09:06.000 notably the sheer militia in Iran, and that risk, I 136 00:09:06.039 --> 00:09:09.039 mean that hasn't I wouldn't say that stopped us alone, 137 00:09:09.159 --> 00:09:12.320 but it was certainly it was certainly something that we 138 00:09:12.360 --> 00:09:15.919 took in consideration. Of course, the Rainier proxies are now 139 00:09:16.360 --> 00:09:18.960 on the ropes for the time being, so the timing 140 00:09:19.039 --> 00:09:24.000 was good from that perspective. Secondly, of course, you know, 141 00:09:24.039 --> 00:09:26.360 you always run a risk when you penetrate in enemies 142 00:09:26.879 --> 00:09:29.840 integrated their defense systems, You run a risk of being 143 00:09:29.879 --> 00:09:36.679 shot down. And in this case, the Israelis have you know, 144 00:09:36.720 --> 00:09:41.600 they cleared the way for us. And the third part 145 00:09:41.600 --> 00:09:47.279 of this was, yes, we were concerned about the death 146 00:09:47.360 --> 00:09:49.919 to which the centrifuges had been sunk and how much 147 00:09:50.000 --> 00:09:53.559 damage we could actually do. Well. I don't know the 148 00:09:53.639 --> 00:09:56.679 details on this, but apparently the Israelis had already created 149 00:09:56.720 --> 00:10:01.600 the sites, which presumably meant that the bombs that we 150 00:10:01.679 --> 00:10:04.679 dropped had less distance to penetrate. I don't know. I 151 00:10:04.720 --> 00:10:08.639 can't say conclusively again whether that part is correct or not. 152 00:10:10.360 --> 00:10:14.919 And it was also it was also well timed in 153 00:10:14.960 --> 00:10:16.919 a sense from the point of view that it seemed 154 00:10:16.960 --> 00:10:21.000 like as though negotiations were going nowhere. I mean, let's 155 00:10:21.039 --> 00:10:26.159 be honest, it's taken two decades of both negotiating, planning, 156 00:10:26.200 --> 00:10:30.679 and threatening to bring us to this point. If the 157 00:10:30.759 --> 00:10:37.120 Iranians have lost their ability to generate nuclear weapons, I 158 00:10:37.159 --> 00:10:38.960 think that's a good thing for the region. You know, 159 00:10:39.039 --> 00:10:44.480 they have the ways that the way that they threatened 160 00:10:44.519 --> 00:10:47.879 the region up to this point is by through a 161 00:10:48.039 --> 00:10:51.279 massive array of ballistic missiles. So that was the other 162 00:10:51.320 --> 00:10:58.039 reason too, right, we were concerned potentially about missile strikes 163 00:10:57.320 --> 00:11:02.080 on Allied countries or even US spaces, missile win drone strikes, 164 00:11:02.120 --> 00:11:05.799 and yet their inventory has been drastically reduced, hasn't been 165 00:11:06.000 --> 00:11:08.639 obliterated in tally, but it has been reduced by the 166 00:11:08.720 --> 00:11:17.679 Israeli strikes. So the timing was was propitious, but you know, 167 00:11:17.720 --> 00:11:22.360 we gained. We were dealing with a physics problem and 168 00:11:22.440 --> 00:11:27.399 it's hard to say whether how successful we were. Time 169 00:11:27.440 --> 00:11:27.919 will tell. 170 00:11:29.120 --> 00:11:31.840 Yeah. Yeah, And what you mentioned with the Israeli called 171 00:11:31.840 --> 00:11:34.200 me out saying that it's set it back many years. 172 00:11:34.200 --> 00:11:37.960 That's from the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission through the Prime 173 00:11:37.960 --> 00:11:42.399 Minister's office to talk a little bit about like the 174 00:11:42.440 --> 00:11:46.480 geopolitical angle of this, because the DIA assessment early assessment 175 00:11:46.519 --> 00:11:49.240 came out yesterday and you need to get it. 176 00:11:49.480 --> 00:11:53.039 I cut this stuff out of notion. Okay, go ahead, 177 00:11:53.039 --> 00:11:53.639 I'm listening. 178 00:11:53.840 --> 00:11:56.679 So the DIA assessment, the early assessment that came out 179 00:11:56.759 --> 00:12:03.799 yesterday that Trump's been refuting pretty pretty hard, pretty viscerally, 180 00:12:03.879 --> 00:12:08.639 i'd say, pretty adamantly says that it came back only 181 00:12:08.679 --> 00:12:11.360 a few months obviously compared to the Israeli one. It 182 00:12:11.440 --> 00:12:14.679 is like, is this Israel trying to like play Kate 183 00:12:14.759 --> 00:12:17.080 Trump to try and just to be like, hey, yeah, no, 184 00:12:17.159 --> 00:12:19.440 we did this and it worked, and you know, the 185 00:12:19.600 --> 00:12:22.639 regions better for it, because I do think it sets 186 00:12:23.759 --> 00:12:27.320 while starting from last year bombing Iran sets like a 187 00:12:27.360 --> 00:12:30.200 pretty dangerous precedent, like where Israel could just like pick 188 00:12:30.279 --> 00:12:33.039 up and bomb them whenever they feel like it. 189 00:12:34.399 --> 00:12:37.080 Yeah, hard to say, I mean suddenly Netniel, who was 190 00:12:37.440 --> 00:12:40.120 urging Trump to do this. But I like to think 191 00:12:40.159 --> 00:12:43.639 that the United States did this fall for our own reasons, 192 00:12:43.720 --> 00:12:46.080 because it was in our own national interests. In again, 193 00:12:46.600 --> 00:12:50.440 you know, I don't think anyone can get sentimental about 194 00:12:50.519 --> 00:12:54.399 Iran losing its ability to generate nuclear weapons and has 195 00:12:54.440 --> 00:12:58.759 proven itself to be a to be a difficult actor 196 00:12:58.840 --> 00:13:02.279 to say the least in the region. But at the 197 00:13:02.320 --> 00:13:06.840 same time, yes, and we want to avoid for our 198 00:13:06.879 --> 00:13:09.799 own interests. And this is me speaking obviously, not speaking 199 00:13:09.879 --> 00:13:12.840 for the administration, but we want to avoid being closely 200 00:13:12.879 --> 00:13:17.840 aligned to Israel. You know, here I am in Saudi Arabia. 201 00:13:17.960 --> 00:13:24.200 Saudi Arabia is an ally of ours too. There is 202 00:13:24.240 --> 00:13:29.879 a great deal of sensitivity about how closely from the 203 00:13:29.919 --> 00:13:32.639 Arab world here, you know, how closely the United States 204 00:13:32.679 --> 00:13:35.600 is aligning itself with the Israeli policy. I think we 205 00:13:35.720 --> 00:13:37.679 have to be warey of that, and we have to 206 00:13:37.720 --> 00:13:41.000 be our own actors if we are to maintain credibility 207 00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:43.440 in the region. And by the way, whether we like 208 00:13:43.480 --> 00:13:46.000 it or not, you know, the strike did help bolster 209 00:13:46.200 --> 00:13:48.879 US credibility in the region. You know, we actually followed 210 00:13:48.960 --> 00:13:54.240 through and did something. We did something that was you know, 211 00:13:54.320 --> 00:13:59.759 outside Iran and outside of Iran's proxies, is widely regarded 212 00:14:00.320 --> 00:14:03.639 in the Middle East, to include among Golf States and 213 00:14:04.240 --> 00:14:07.000 Saudi Arabia as being generally a good thing. 214 00:14:07.720 --> 00:14:13.159 Yeah, in terms of blowback, do you think at some point, 215 00:14:13.159 --> 00:14:16.639 I know, there's obviously a ceasefire right now, but Iran's 216 00:14:16.679 --> 00:14:21.080 gotta be thinking about doing something, right I mean, I 217 00:14:21.120 --> 00:14:24.759 can't really see them just cowering and just be like, Okay, 218 00:14:24.799 --> 00:14:26.879 we'll give up everything. You know, we need to give 219 00:14:26.960 --> 00:14:29.320 up and every you guys want our ballistic missiles too, 220 00:14:29.360 --> 00:14:31.919 We could you know, all terms, all types of like 221 00:14:32.399 --> 00:14:35.200 actual self defense to not just the nuclear program. Obviously 222 00:14:35.279 --> 00:14:39.559 the nuclear programs no bueno. But what do you think 223 00:14:39.600 --> 00:14:40.600 the blowback looks like? 224 00:14:41.399 --> 00:14:44.759 Yeah, that's a great question. And I don't know. I 225 00:14:45.279 --> 00:14:50.200 do know that the regime must right now be feeling 226 00:14:51.000 --> 00:14:54.360 quite desperate. You know, they're not now let me let 227 00:14:54.360 --> 00:14:56.639 me rephrase that, okay, but they I mean they have 228 00:14:57.639 --> 00:15:01.200 there's certainly there's certainly on the ropes has certainly had 229 00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:04.639 a severe disadvantage. They haven't lost all of their ability 230 00:15:04.679 --> 00:15:09.039 to cause harm and they still have a significant missile 231 00:15:09.080 --> 00:15:14.639 inventory and Hezbolla as a matter of time before Hesbala 232 00:15:14.720 --> 00:15:17.519 and even Hamas are back on their feet again. You know, 233 00:15:17.519 --> 00:15:21.320 I mean, the amount of anger that it's been generated 234 00:15:21.879 --> 00:15:26.159 in the last two years by Israeli actions, for instance 235 00:15:26.200 --> 00:15:29.600 in the Middle Least is you know, it's not going 236 00:15:29.679 --> 00:15:32.200 to die away, all right, and there's going to be 237 00:15:32.279 --> 00:15:34.720 certainly there's going to be a resurgence that these two groups. 238 00:15:34.720 --> 00:15:37.200 They're not down and out, but it's going to be 239 00:15:37.240 --> 00:15:42.039 a while before Iran can really flex its muscles again, 240 00:15:42.240 --> 00:15:45.399 if you know, if it can in the near future. 241 00:15:45.919 --> 00:15:48.200 So that's a long winded way of saying that I 242 00:15:48.279 --> 00:15:53.679 don't know, but I just want to remind listeners again 243 00:15:53.840 --> 00:15:58.480 of the Vincennes incident, which is back in nineteen eighty 244 00:15:58.559 --> 00:16:03.000 nine when the us AS Vincennes mistakenly shot down in 245 00:16:03.000 --> 00:16:05.559 an Iranian air bus with some two hundred and fifty 246 00:16:05.600 --> 00:16:14.879 civilian passengers on board, and almost a decade later, the Iranians, 247 00:16:14.919 --> 00:16:18.120 one assumes, planted a bomb in the van of the 248 00:16:18.159 --> 00:16:21.600 skipper of the Vincennes, the skipper at the time in 249 00:16:21.679 --> 00:16:24.559 San Diego. He would turned out he didn't get in 250 00:16:24.600 --> 00:16:27.000 the vehicle as his wife and she was civillly injured. 251 00:16:27.440 --> 00:16:32.120 But I think, you know, it's just an example of 252 00:16:32.159 --> 00:16:35.080 how the Iranians are willing to play, or perhaps that's 253 00:16:35.120 --> 00:16:37.639 the only game they can play sometimes, is the long 254 00:16:37.679 --> 00:16:44.519 game to exact vengeance. But I don't you know, to them, 255 00:16:44.600 --> 00:16:46.879 Israel is the big enemy. It doesn't mean that we 256 00:16:46.960 --> 00:16:52.120 have we've we're lily white as far as the concern. 257 00:16:52.200 --> 00:16:54.519 We did just strike their nuclear facilities, but I don't 258 00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:57.360 think striking back in the United States is going to 259 00:16:57.360 --> 00:17:03.960 be a top priority. The missile attack on Aladide was 260 00:17:04.079 --> 00:17:08.799 a pro former act done, as I think we all know, 261 00:17:08.960 --> 00:17:12.400 for the sake of saving face. They gave Katar heads 262 00:17:12.440 --> 00:17:15.359 up that it was going to happen. Only fifteen missiles 263 00:17:15.400 --> 00:17:18.000 were fired, and they were fired in a half heart 264 00:17:18.079 --> 00:17:22.480 hit type attempt. Right. It wasn't really a serious attempt. 265 00:17:22.480 --> 00:17:24.640 It was just look, okay, now we're going to write back. 266 00:17:24.680 --> 00:17:29.920 It was for domestic consumption. And you know, the Uranian media, 267 00:17:30.319 --> 00:17:33.880 state owned media, of course, the trumpeting that we inflicted, 268 00:17:34.200 --> 00:17:37.160 that we suffered casualties, et cetera, et cetera. But everyone 269 00:17:37.200 --> 00:17:41.440 knows that didn't happen. Now, if they really wanted to 270 00:17:41.480 --> 00:17:43.920 strike back at us, they would have gone after our 271 00:17:43.960 --> 00:17:48.119 bases in Iraq using sheer militia drones, you know, which 272 00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:52.119 they'd done before to greater effect or Syria. And by 273 00:17:52.119 --> 00:17:55.359 the way, bases in Iraq and Syria are not protected 274 00:17:55.359 --> 00:17:59.039 by patriot missile bat batteries, the one in Aladid is. 275 00:17:59.200 --> 00:18:01.480 So it was kind of if they it was a 276 00:18:01.559 --> 00:18:05.640 safe way to be seen to exact vengeance and look good. 277 00:18:08.240 --> 00:18:12.160 Let me ask why aren't those other bases in Iraq 278 00:18:12.240 --> 00:18:15.079 and Syria not protected by patriot batteries? 279 00:18:16.000 --> 00:18:18.279 Yeah, great question. Well, there's only limited number of patriot 280 00:18:18.319 --> 00:18:22.559 batteries to go round, right And now they may have 281 00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:29.240 I you know, I I may my my information may 282 00:18:29.279 --> 00:18:34.200 now be outdated. But but that that that was That 283 00:18:34.319 --> 00:18:36.519 was certainly the case, you know, a few months ago. 284 00:18:37.200 --> 00:18:37.720 Yeah. 285 00:18:37.920 --> 00:18:41.440 And and in any case, you know, even protected by 286 00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:45.079 patriot batteries is not when you when it comes to 287 00:18:45.160 --> 00:18:50.200 short range head offense, patriots only do a certain amount 288 00:18:50.240 --> 00:18:53.039 of good and they don't. They are not good at 289 00:18:53.039 --> 00:18:58.319 blocking drones. So short range other short range missiles and 290 00:18:58.559 --> 00:19:03.359 that's the threat really and Syria and in Iraq drones 291 00:19:03.440 --> 00:19:09.799 and other shorter range missiles fined by local militias. Yeah, 292 00:19:09.799 --> 00:19:12.119 that's not some delicious but Iraq certainly. 293 00:19:12.839 --> 00:19:15.200 Also another bit of the from the assessment, and even 294 00:19:15.240 --> 00:19:20.039 before the early assessment got released yesterday about the four 295 00:19:20.160 --> 00:19:24.160 hundred kilograms of enriched geranium like supposal, we don't know 296 00:19:24.160 --> 00:19:24.799 where that is. 297 00:19:25.599 --> 00:19:28.680 Yeah, yeah, I mean, I know there's a great deal 298 00:19:28.720 --> 00:19:35.039 of angst about that, and it's I I would say this, Okay, 299 00:19:35.640 --> 00:19:37.200 I think it's the right thing to do to give 300 00:19:37.200 --> 00:19:39.720 them a heads up. Okay, that kind of keeps things 301 00:19:39.720 --> 00:19:43.640 again on this Not not a gentleman's playing. That's not 302 00:19:43.680 --> 00:19:45.240 what I'm trying to say. What I'm trying to say 303 00:19:45.359 --> 00:19:48.400 is that, hey, with the United States, it's saying we 304 00:19:48.440 --> 00:19:52.440 live by values, we will save lives where we can, 305 00:19:52.799 --> 00:19:54.359 but on the other hand, we are going to take 306 00:19:54.400 --> 00:19:57.359 out your nuclear program. All right. The downside was four 307 00:19:57.440 --> 00:20:02.039 hundred kilograms of apparently we don't know for sure, but 308 00:20:02.079 --> 00:20:08.960 four hundred kilograms in rich uranium escaped. Well, the question 309 00:20:09.160 --> 00:20:11.680 is are the Uranians going to use this? Right, They're 310 00:20:11.680 --> 00:20:14.000 going to weaponize it and use it against us, and 311 00:20:14.400 --> 00:20:18.559 who knows. I mean, there's it's speculation, But think about this, 312 00:20:18.680 --> 00:20:21.480 that's a finite amount of uranium. It's a lot, it's 313 00:20:21.480 --> 00:20:23.440 a fair amount of in enriched uranium, but it's a 314 00:20:23.440 --> 00:20:27.279 finite amount anyway, all right, at this stage, especially when 315 00:20:27.279 --> 00:20:30.240 you are operating against two nuclear nations, it would be 316 00:20:30.279 --> 00:20:35.839 near suicidal to load up a finite number of weapons 317 00:20:35.880 --> 00:20:43.079 with your remaining enriched uranium and conduct strikes. And the 318 00:20:43.400 --> 00:20:48.319 Iranians are not suicidal. In fact, they are among all 319 00:20:48.400 --> 00:20:52.079 our enemies, possibly the most rational of actors. I mean 320 00:20:52.079 --> 00:20:55.000 by the Chinese, of course, I mean, but they're they're 321 00:20:55.279 --> 00:20:59.000 very you know, they haven't stayed in power this long 322 00:20:59.160 --> 00:21:01.799 through doing purely crazy shit. 323 00:21:03.880 --> 00:21:06.359 So what I meant by like not strapping like sixty 324 00:21:06.400 --> 00:21:09.000 percent of rich geranium to like ballistic missiles and shooting 325 00:21:09.039 --> 00:21:11.279 them into Tel Aviv, but I meant like, you know, 326 00:21:11.319 --> 00:21:13.799 bringing them to you know, one of their shadow sites 327 00:21:13.880 --> 00:21:18.000 or they There is some reporting that isfahan Is is 328 00:21:18.079 --> 00:21:23.000 deeper than ford Ou where their centrifuges are, so like 329 00:21:23.079 --> 00:21:26.680 bringing it right, bringing it there and like enriching it 330 00:21:26.680 --> 00:21:28.400 and continuing their program. 331 00:21:28.519 --> 00:21:31.519 Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think that's always a risk and 332 00:21:31.599 --> 00:21:35.039 you know, we know of those three sides, right, but 333 00:21:35.759 --> 00:21:40.000 there are there's now reports that the program may be 334 00:21:40.079 --> 00:21:42.759 more distributed than we thought, that there are more than 335 00:21:42.799 --> 00:21:46.839 those three sides, so you know, the potential risks multiplying. 336 00:21:47.880 --> 00:21:50.519 We did. We did what we could, but the intelligence 337 00:21:50.559 --> 00:21:53.839 that we had at the time, but the time marches 338 00:21:53.960 --> 00:21:59.799 on and the Iranians, as I said, are they you know, 339 00:21:59.839 --> 00:22:02.000 they they're pretty smart. 340 00:22:02.240 --> 00:22:02.519 Yeah. 341 00:22:02.640 --> 00:22:06.640 People, Again, the regime state empowered this long and I'm 342 00:22:06.640 --> 00:22:11.200 sure they haven't punted all their eggs into just three baskets. 343 00:22:11.400 --> 00:22:15.480 So yeah, I think we can. We can go down 344 00:22:15.599 --> 00:22:19.960 paths that lead us to many risky scenarios that have 345 00:22:20.039 --> 00:22:23.720 resulted from this strike. But nevertheless, I still, you know, 346 00:22:23.799 --> 00:22:26.039 I believe it was a It was a good thing, 347 00:22:26.359 --> 00:22:28.920 even if we just sent back, set the program back, 348 00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:31.599 because it's sent a very powerful message that we are 349 00:22:31.720 --> 00:22:32.799 serious about doing this. 350 00:22:33.799 --> 00:22:38.960 Yeah, barakravated the Axios, not the other unit. Eighty two 351 00:22:39.000 --> 00:22:43.960 hundred news reporter, I mean the Oxios reporter wrote just 352 00:22:44.039 --> 00:22:47.559 recently Israel Israeli official with direct knowledge says they intercepted 353 00:22:47.640 --> 00:22:51.279 comms to just Iranian military officials are lying to their 354 00:22:51.319 --> 00:22:54.759 political leadership about the extent of the damage at the nuclear. 355 00:22:54.400 --> 00:22:59.279 Sites, oh right, lying as far as it's worse than 356 00:22:59.319 --> 00:23:05.319 they're saying, right, yeah, yeah, yeah, again who knows, multiple reports, right, But. 357 00:23:05.319 --> 00:23:10.079 That also came out like literally minutes after the Israel 358 00:23:10.480 --> 00:23:12.799 Atomic Energy Commission came out and said that it's going 359 00:23:12.880 --> 00:23:15.720 to take many years for them to come back. So, 360 00:23:17.000 --> 00:23:19.920 I mean, I'm sure there's a pr pr aspect to 361 00:23:19.960 --> 00:23:22.240 all this. And like you know, who's winning the spin 362 00:23:22.359 --> 00:23:25.200 game because you see any around what's going on there. 363 00:23:25.200 --> 00:23:27.680 You know, they're touting it as like the victory over 364 00:23:27.799 --> 00:23:32.319 Israel day there, right, Like they have like a whole 365 00:23:32.440 --> 00:23:33.359 rally and stuff. 366 00:23:33.680 --> 00:23:37.400 So we'll think about think about the problems that the 367 00:23:37.440 --> 00:23:43.079 Iranian regime is having with its domestic audience. You know, 368 00:23:43.119 --> 00:23:49.519 we've talked about this that even in its pro former elections, 369 00:23:49.799 --> 00:23:52.319 it is losing, it has lost ground in the last 370 00:23:52.359 --> 00:23:55.759 few years, or the electorate has simply not bothered to 371 00:23:55.799 --> 00:24:00.880 show up, and there have been you know, there is 372 00:24:00.920 --> 00:24:04.400 a significant opposition group within Iran and they're fed up 373 00:24:04.680 --> 00:24:07.480 with the economy being and the toilet. They're fed up 374 00:24:07.519 --> 00:24:15.720 with with the IRGC's adventurism overseas, which is costing the 375 00:24:15.799 --> 00:24:18.799 state in financial terms and in terms of being a 376 00:24:18.799 --> 00:24:22.599 political parah and has done, you know, since the birth 377 00:24:22.680 --> 00:24:26.880 of the Islamic Republic. And remember too that Iran has 378 00:24:27.000 --> 00:24:33.079 a highly educated middle class. You know, it's I wouldn't 379 00:24:33.119 --> 00:24:35.680 say unusual, but it's in a minority among Middle Eastern 380 00:24:35.680 --> 00:24:41.599 countries to have such an advanced middle class. And you know, 381 00:24:41.640 --> 00:24:46.000 they're not They've got to be careful how they exhibit 382 00:24:45.359 --> 00:24:50.000 their opposition to the regime because of course we've seen 383 00:24:50.319 --> 00:24:55.759 how the administration exerts crackdowns. But on the other hand, 384 00:24:55.880 --> 00:24:59.960 it's real and the Iranian regime is concerned about it. 385 00:25:00.359 --> 00:25:03.759 You know, you've probably heard anecdotal reports or even seen 386 00:25:03.799 --> 00:25:09.680 YouTube videos about locals sharing even the Israeli strikes in 387 00:25:09.880 --> 00:25:15.279 military facilities. Their discontent is real, and the administration is 388 00:25:15.319 --> 00:25:18.559 concerned about that. So it isn't they're just not. They're 389 00:25:18.559 --> 00:25:24.480 not just looking at what they're going to do as 390 00:25:24.519 --> 00:25:28.720 far as taking on their geopolitical opponents. They're also worry 391 00:25:28.799 --> 00:25:33.000 about how they appear to their domestic audience right now, Yeah, 392 00:25:33.119 --> 00:25:36.240 and they are domestic audience does not appear to want 393 00:25:36.279 --> 00:25:37.759 more even now. 394 00:25:38.480 --> 00:25:41.839 Yeah, you could say that too about the United States 395 00:25:41.839 --> 00:25:43.920 domestic audience as well, right, Like. 396 00:25:45.240 --> 00:25:50.200 Well, yeah, sixty percent opposed, only sixteen percent were for 397 00:25:50.680 --> 00:25:54.440 US taking action against Iran until we did take action, 398 00:25:54.559 --> 00:25:56.799 and then I believe the numbers are much higher. I 399 00:25:56.880 --> 00:25:58.279 never realized. So that was it. 400 00:25:58.880 --> 00:26:04.119 Yeah, Well, I'm I mean hopefully that's it. Right. Uh yeah, 401 00:26:04.400 --> 00:26:07.799