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Speaker 1: Welcome into the opening line report. Kelly Stewart here with

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Teddy Covers, fresh.

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Speaker 2: Off a nice week eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Teddy, congratulations on cash in that big five percent ticket.

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Let's get right into Wildcard week and we got a

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ton of stuff to talk about today. We've got, you know,

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maybe some emergency betting alerts we're gonna find out here,

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and of course we're gonna talk about strength of schedule.

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Speaker 2: Teddy.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw some other questions your way because I

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know that we don't have a ton of game games

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left right The NFL season is winding down, and I

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kind of want to get the most bang for my

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buck after not one but two kickers plagued me yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I got lucky the week, and I had a

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pair of games coming through the back door. Neither one

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was the right side, including Carolina New Orleans cash another

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ticket for me. It's been a real good run down

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the stretch of the NFL season for the client and

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I twelve and five over the last five weeks of

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NFL actions, So I'll take a seventy percent run anytime.

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The Sundays. We're really good down the stretch. My last

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eight Sundays hit sixty better than sixty seven percent seventy

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sixteen and seven, So you know, it was I couldn't

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get anything in terms of breaks for like October and

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in November, the back half of the season, and especially

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this past weekend, we had a couple of breaks going

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our favor, and that's sometimes what it takes to win

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at the NFL level. Straight to schedule, we do want

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to tease it now. I'm going to talk strength to

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schedule in detail after we go through the six games,

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and in my mind, I'm not gonna say there's no

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more important factor, but there aren't many more important factors

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for wild card weekend than knowing how battle tested these

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teams actually are. And I'm gonna give you my numbers,

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which are very different. I'll talk about some mainstream numbers.

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We'll talk about what my numbers are and how they

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were created strength to schedule wise, hopefully they'll give you

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a nice tip. So stick around till the end of

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today's show. And of course, Swarts. Noting kel thirteen games

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remaining in the entirety of the NFL season, you're counting

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the three college football playoff games. There's sixteen games left

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in football this year, which is exactly what we had

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a week eighteen, you know. So from here on out

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we got to take opportunities.

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Speaker 1: We need to cherish the football that we have left

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until the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: I get that, Teddy.

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Speaker 1: I'll quit complaining about kickers and all of the bad

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beats and just appreciate that the gambling gods are going

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to give us some more over the next month and

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a half or so.

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Speaker 3: Sure. Sure, And of course looking back at Week eighteen

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real quick, the must win teams, you know, Pittsburgh Baltimore

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doesn't count, Carolina, Tampa doesn't count, sat San France doesn't count.

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Must win versus must win, but the must win teams

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versus non must win teams. We had the Pats, the Broncos,

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the Jags, all live for the number one seed in

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the AFC three and oh ats double digit favorites. We

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talked about, oh, the chalk eating weasels and the success

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they've had this season chalk eating weasels Week eighteen six

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and oh ats with the double digit favorites. I kind

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of the Vikes that minus twoeve and a half. If

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you lay thirteen or thirteen and a half of Minnesota,

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that's on you because you know it closed. It closed

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at twelve and a half and it opened at six.

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So if you lead there were books that had thirteen's,

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I get it. But the Bills, the Patch, the Rams,

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the Broncos, the Jags, and the Vikings all covered as

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double digit favorites. One other thing I wanted to note

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one of the things that I go through and again

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when we talk about the strength of schedule and why

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I think it's so important in the playoffs, we're looking

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for the best teams, the elite teams, we're expecting them

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to move on. We're looking for the fraudulent teams to

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go home. We talk how do we differentiate between the

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elite teams and the fraudulent teams. Two things that stand

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out strength to schedule turnover margin, you know, and we'll

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talk a little bit about turnover margin on today's show

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as well, which is going to lead us into a

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very rare thing. We're gonna talk about their number one

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seeds at all today. Except for this, both Denver and

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Seattle both had negative turnover differentials full season. You don't

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often see that for the two number one seeds heading

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in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Let's get right into it, Teddy, I'm excited to talk

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about some of these fraudulent teams, right, I've been screaming

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fraud for a better part of the last eight weeks.

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I don't know if my Denver Broncos are fraudulent. They

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got the number one overall set. Seattle looked really good

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the other night. And we'll get into both of those

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teams here in a minute. We're going to go in

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rotation order as always. Here, we've got the Panthers catching

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double digits to.

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Speaker 3: The Rams, yet we have no look headlines or I

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don't have look ahead lines. I'm sure they were out

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there somewhere for some people, but there were so many

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of them. I didn't write down dozens and dozens of

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potential matchups that somebody put out there. What I will

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give you, guys, is my powering number. We'll talk about

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where the markets opened last night, and we'll talk about

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what the markets have done since the opener. And if

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you're looking for the markets going crazy, you're going to

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be severely disappointed because the market's have the lines opened

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and they basically sat there across the board. My powering

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number Rams Panthers has LA minus eight and a half.

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I have a ten point differential like of Carolina, and

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there are situations in the playoffs. Normally I'm gonna give

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a point and a half for home field in the playoffs,

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there are situations where I'll even give two to two

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and a half. This is not one of those situations.

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But it is a West Coast team traveling east. It's

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not an early star game though. My powering number of

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Rams eight and a half. The market's open ten forty

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six and a half last night and we're seeing ten

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forty six and a half today. I want to talk

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a little bit about recent playoff history because that certainly

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factors into how we approach these teams, how we think

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about these teams in general. Teams that have been in

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the postseason in recent years and has some success are

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the teams we expect to have a chance to survive

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in advance. The teams that are postseason virgins per se,

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like Carolina, we expect them all right, You get your experiment.

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Sometimes you get a run on the postseason virgin team,

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but not usually from the bottom season ten point home

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dog or you know, home virgin virgin playoff team. For

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the Rams recent playoffs last year Minnesota, they beat Minnesota

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at home and then lost at Philly in twenty three.

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They lost at Detroit in their first playoff game twenty

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two to no playoffs. Twenty one, they won multiple games

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and the Super Bowl. In twenty twenty they wild Card weekend,

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they won a Seattle Division game, lost at Green Bay,

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and twenty eighteen McVeigh and Goff went to the Super Bowl.

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So they have had a signifiant playoff experience, be significant

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playoff success in recent years, including a playoff win last

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year at home. They have not won on the road

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in the postseason since that Super Bowl era in twenty

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twenty one super victory in twenty twenty one. So when

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we look at LA for the course the season, the

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thing that stands out this team lost five games. Three

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of the five losses you can blame straight on the

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special teams, you know, is that being the Queens already

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have been fired. Is that fixed now for LA? Because

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special teams in the postseason, they have a tendency to

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rear their early head in situations. And of course Matthew

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Stafford was in the game into the fourth quarter in

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Week eighteen, an old quarterback taking hits. That's concerned Devanta Adams.

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Will he return I have him as questionable right now.

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I imagine Adam's status as the potential to influence this

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line as the week progresses. Like I said, their last

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road playoff win in twenty twenty one, they lost that

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Carolina right here on this field in week thirteen. If

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you remember the game, and I do, the Rams only

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had five third downs in the whole I mean, they

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moved the ball up and down the field. They scored

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four touchdowns. But wasn't Matthew Stafford's best game. After the

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game as coaches where I stunk today. Carolina went three

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or three on fourth downs, they were plus three in turnovers.

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Stafford was throwing picks, included a pick six and ended

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up being a three point game with again Carolina three

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of three on fourth downs and plus three in turnovers,

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and it was a three point game. So if Carolina

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it's every third downers plus three in turnovers today on Saturday,

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they got a chance here. But obviously we wouldn't expect

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that in a rematch. And of course it is the

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Rams offense that scored thirty plus and ten games. Stafford

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forty seven hundred passing yards led the NFL forty six

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touchdowns offense was real good. Defense was not elite down

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the stretch. We'll see if that comes into play when

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you talk about a team laying doubles on the highway.

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Carolina is a really interesting team. They lost Week one,

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their first game off a loss. Therefore this year was

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Week two. Since that time, since that Week two game

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offul loss, Pantas b hat eight of them eight to

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no against the spread. Awful loss this year. They just

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lost their ninth game on Saturday in the muck at Tampa. Obviously,

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they backed into the playoffs. The team the public and

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the betty markets do not like. From the strength to

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schedule standpoints, SEC had a sorry from a how good

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are the team's standpoints? Second had a number twenty three

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at a number of thirty two teams, right, I had

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a Washington and the Giants, and they dropped a twenty

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four after week eighteen. So there's certainly from the mainstream

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perspective and from my power ings too, Carolina. There's everybody else,

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there's Carolina, which explains why they're ten point home dogs.

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You know, obviously we had the five percent big ticket

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winner with the Panthers on Saturday. That was a bet

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against the Bucks as much as anything. That being said,

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I thought Carolina would come to play. They've been exceptional

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in this awful loss role and certainly you know, fortuitous cover.

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It was unlucky with the bad play call on the

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flea flicker fumble in the rain in the end zone.

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It was unlucky with multiple ref calls, obviously including the

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awful office of pass interference call that legitimately changed the game.

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But they had the block field goal that made all

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the difference in the points bread, they had the fourth

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and eight heave, They had an incredible touchdown catch from Cocher.

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You know, we escaped the field goal try on the drive,

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we escaped the potential safety and the almost picked six

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in the first down, and the fumble Russie on the

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final played to only lose by two. It was lucky.

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I'll take it. I gotta be lucky sometimes Carolina. In

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that game, by the way, one of eight on third

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downs they had three turnovers minus two were turnovers. They

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failed to test. All right, you're supposed to go to Tampa.

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All right, you're a playoff team, show me, and they

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weren't good. They failed, But they get a mull again

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and a chance against a team they've rebeat. So this

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is not the most confident team right now, clearly, and

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I don't do this very often, but I want to

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revisit a quote from last week's show after Carolina was

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non competitive and defeat against Seattle, I said, is this

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a shot at the offensive coaching staff in Carolina? This

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is a price Young quote from two weeks ago after

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the Seahawks pounded them. Quote credit to them. They made

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adjustments to the game plan and did a better job

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of executing it. We're going to go up against different

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schemes and teams that are going to make adjustments. We

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need to be able to react to that and counter it.

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We will watch the film and learn and from it.

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That to me felt like a veiled shot at the

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coaching staff. And you know what, the offense sucked again

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on Saturday. For what it's worth, they got the money.

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It certainly wasn't the right side and Carolina from a

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betting market perspective, this is the most disrespected team still standing.

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And of course there's no recent playoff history, first appearance

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since David Tepper bought the team in twenty eighteen, so

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the temper doesn't have to throw drinks at fans. He

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can actually watch a playoff game this time around.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Teddy, I think somehow getting to cash that Carolina

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NFC South.

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Speaker 2: Think it was the lone bright spot of my Sunday.

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Speaker 1: But I have not a lot of faith in this

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Panthers team going forward. Maybe they can get in the

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back door cover for their backers.

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Speaker 2: We'll see.

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Speaker 1: The Rams on the East Coast have been rather interesting

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this year.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to a game where we're talking about frauds.

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Speaker 1: Shawn's in the comments section, Bears are confirmed frauds, Teddy.

241
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Packers taking on the Chicago Bears Soldier Field. This line's

242
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bounced back and forth since the opening. I tried to

243
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grab both sides on a teaser, wasn't able to get

244
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it done. But I think this is gonna be one

245
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of the more tallying games of the week. They split

246
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this rivalry this year once lost and lost at Soldier Field,

247
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won in Green Bay back at Soldier Field.

248
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Speaker 2: Kind of let me know what you think. Here are

249
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the Bears frauds.

250
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Speaker 3: So these two teams played well just a couple of

251
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weeks ago, and the Packers had the game. It was

252
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all over. All they had to do is recover the

253
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onside kick and they couldn't recover the onside kick, and

254
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Chicago went on, it's going to touchdown, and they went

255
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down and got the game winning score. And it wasn't

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a fun result for myself or my clients in that ballgame.

257
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That being said, you know, it's a Packers team that's

258
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found ways to lose games like that. This year. Let's

259
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be real powering number, green Bay Chicago at Soldier Field.

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My number is pick them the markets open. Last night,

261
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there were minus ones for the Packers. There were minus

262
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ones for the Bears. There were pick thems out there.

263
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I greatered as pick them as the opener, forty six

264
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and a half the total. What are we seeing today

265
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minus ones for the Bears. I am seeing minus ones

266
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for the Packers out there. You can win a fan

267
00:13:19,799 --> 00:13:23,279
duel right now of forty six the prevailing total. So

268
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,600
we have seen a little bit of under money come

269
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in for this one. I might I say a little bit,

270
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I mean a little bit, you know. But that being said,

271
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Green Bay Chicago, where's the money gonna come? You talked

272
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Kelly a moment ago about how the Bears are being

273
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viewed as a fraudulent team, and certainly from your standard

274
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metrics all right, turnover margin number one in the NFL

275
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and turnover margin plus twenty two and the betting markets.

276
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When it comes to the postseason, they don't expect teams

277
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that have lived off turner margin all year to continue

278
00:13:56,799 --> 00:13:59,320
that because they're facing better opponents team that don't turn

279
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the ball. Of course, the Bears don't have much recent

280
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playoff experience since losing to the Colts with Rex Grossman

281
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at quarterback in February twenty twenty seven. That was a

282
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two thousand and sixth season. The Bears have three playoff

283
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appearances in the last twenty years, one win that came

284
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in twenty ten, So you know, they quote stumbled into

285
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the playoffs back to back losses, although they did get

286
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the number two seed with Washington beat and Philly, which

287
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speaks volumes about one of the things I've been talking about.

288
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Teams don't care about seeding once they're in, they get

289
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a bye week. It's something that's a motivator. Seating doesn't matter. Obviously,

290
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:41,279
Philly rested startered, Chicago didn't care. They lost to the

291
00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,639
forty nine Ers two weeks ago on a chance they

292
00:14:43,639 --> 00:14:45,080
had a chance to win the last play of the game.

293
00:14:45,159 --> 00:14:47,600
They lost to Detroit yesterday, last play of the game,

294
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game winning field goal. It's not exactly a Packer scenario

295
00:14:50,799 --> 00:14:53,759
where green Bay has been awful. They've lost four straight

296
00:14:54,039 --> 00:14:55,720
down the stretch. Chicago's lost the pair of games on

297
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,799
Alma last play and again yesterday they trailed sixteen nothing

298
00:14:58,799 --> 00:15:01,519
into the fourth quarter, and it's another game where Caleb

299
00:15:01,519 --> 00:15:05,440
Williams showed him that he could rally them back. Concerns

300
00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,279
for the Bears most assuredly on the defense side of

301
00:15:07,279 --> 00:15:10,679
the football. This defense has allowed thirteen hundred yards over

302
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:12,799
the last three weeks. The defense ranked number thirty one

303
00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,320
in pass rush win rate. They only four sacks the

304
00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,200
last three games. Jordan loves time to throw. That could

305
00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:22,440
be a problem for the Chicago Bears. But again, green

306
00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,639
Bay comes in on a four game losing streak. You

307
00:15:24,639 --> 00:15:26,720
know they're not actually heading the playoffs on a high note.

308
00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,600
Jeff Halfley, the defense coordinator's name, he's bandied about. His

309
00:15:29,679 --> 00:15:31,240
name is being bandied about for a bunch of jobs.

310
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Halfley's going to be on the interview circuit this postseason,

311
00:15:34,559 --> 00:15:39,600
so that is a distraction. Green Bay last year Week

312
00:15:39,639 --> 00:15:42,200
eighteen played their starters and they end up losing Christian

313
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,279
Watson to a torn acl They ended up losing the game.

314
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It didn't them no good This year. Matt Laflord quote

315
00:15:47,159 --> 00:15:50,840
unquote learned his lesson and yesterday was a legitimate bye

316
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:52,960
week for green Bay or as close as the Gets,

317
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,360
and they were really banged up at the end of

318
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:56,840
the year. They're still banged up going to the playoff

319
00:15:56,919 --> 00:16:01,679
Chicago with most assurely the healthier team. But we look

320
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,200
at green Bay contrast with green Bay did yesterday versus

321
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:05,679
what the Rams he did yesterday. You know, the Rams

322
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:07,120
had starters on the field in the fourth quarter of

323
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,679
the Packers played nobody. You know, Clayton Tune with the

324
00:16:10,679 --> 00:16:13,399
second career start, four to the five offsive liners off,

325
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,000
the lineman started, a top three receivers set to top

326
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,879
two running back set, eight defensive starter set. Those guys

327
00:16:18,919 --> 00:16:21,600
are all coming back next week. Mi Ca Parsons isn't

328
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,480
coming back next week. Tucker Kraft offense hasn't been the

329
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,399
same since Tucker Craft gotter. He's not coming back last year.

330
00:16:28,039 --> 00:16:31,000
Packers recent playoff history, well, they lost twenty two to

331
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,279
ten last year at the eventual Super Bowl Champs Philadelphia

332
00:16:33,279 --> 00:16:35,000
on the wild card round, so they lost on the

333
00:16:35,039 --> 00:16:37,360
road in the opener. Last year twenty twenty three, they

334
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,559
won at Dallas, lost at San Franz the divisional round.

335
00:16:40,639 --> 00:16:42,519
All road games over the last two years, it's like

336
00:16:42,559 --> 00:16:45,279
this one. Twenty twenty two didn't make the playoffs. Twenty

337
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,360
twenty one, they lost at home Aaron Rodgers at QB

338
00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:52,639
to San Francisco thirteen to ten in that game. So

339
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:54,799
in recent years we haven't seen a whole lot of

340
00:16:54,879 --> 00:16:57,000
road success from the Packers. We haven't seen a whole

341
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,240
lot of success at all in the postseason from the Packers.

342
00:16:59,279 --> 00:17:01,960
Some of the reasons that la Floor is one of

343
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,000
the coaches who some people thought might be on the

344
00:17:05,039 --> 00:17:08,400
hot seat, though I don't see that at all.

345
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:09,720
Speaker 2: Hot hot, hot.

346
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:15,000
Speaker 1: No one seems to be hotter than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Teddy,

347
00:17:15,039 --> 00:17:18,880
this is gonna be an interesting one. I could see

348
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,279
either one of these teams winning the Super Bowl. Frankly,

349
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:27,039
Jacksonville headed to play Josh Allen and the Bills.

350
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Speaker 3: Yeah. In the AFCA was like, Oh, I like this team.

351
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:30,799
Oh I like that team. Oh I like that team. Oh.

352
00:17:30,839 --> 00:17:32,759
If I'm picking one team, I'm picking this team. I'm

353
00:17:32,799 --> 00:17:36,079
all over the map in the AFC, I really am,

354
00:17:36,839 --> 00:17:38,640
and these are two teams that are both more than cable.

355
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,559
I'm making a run my powering number Jacksonville minus one.

356
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,039
The markets opened Buffalo minus one and a half fifty

357
00:17:46,039 --> 00:17:48,119
one and a half last night. We're seeing today Buffalo

358
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,119
minus split line. There's ones in one and a half

359
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,359
out there with the Bills, but their favorite just about

360
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,680
everywhere total fifty one and a half. So the total

361
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,359
hasn't done anything. The side hasn't done anything. My number

362
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,559
is giving Jacksonville more credit than the betting markets, and

363
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,839
again from minus one to plus one when I talk

364
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,440
about these huge moves, when I talk about me even

365
00:18:05,519 --> 00:18:07,519
be way off the market numbers for these two teams.

366
00:18:07,759 --> 00:18:09,759
But I think I had the Jags slightly above the

367
00:18:09,799 --> 00:18:12,880
market number in Buffalo, slightly below in my power rating

368
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,720
for Jacksonville. You know, we talk about the bad huh.

369
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:18,920
They couldn't run the football against Tennessee. The running game

370
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:21,559
has not been consistent. The number twenty seven in yards

371
00:18:21,559 --> 00:18:24,640
per rush the good for the Jaggs pretty much everything else.

372
00:18:25,559 --> 00:18:27,359
You know, the plus thirteen and turnover number three in

373
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:28,960
the NFL. They didn't turn the ball over at all

374
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:34,160
down the stretch, the only playoff appearance since Blake Bortles

375
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,839
led them to the AFC Championship Game at New England

376
00:18:37,839 --> 00:18:40,759
in twenty seventeen. They covered the spread in that game,

377
00:18:40,799 --> 00:18:42,759
by the way, was in twenty twenty two. That was

378
00:18:42,799 --> 00:18:44,559
the Chargers at home in the wildcard round. If you

379
00:18:44,599 --> 00:18:47,680
bet that game, you'll never forget it. Chargers led twenty

380
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,880
seven nothing and the Jags came back to win thirty

381
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:52,400
one to thirty. Trevor Lawrence was going to be a

382
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,400
big star. He was getting subway commercials the whole Enchilada.

383
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,920
And then they lost that inchel arrawhead to the Chiefs

384
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,559
the following week and haven't made the playoffs since. So

385
00:19:00,559 --> 00:19:02,839
so much for Trevor Lawrence being a huge start. He

386
00:19:02,839 --> 00:19:05,960
gets another opportunity here. They topped a dozen wins just

387
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:09,359
the second time in the franchise's thirty one year history.

388
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,559
You know, Liam Cohen, first year, first time head coach, quote,

389
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:15,960
today's the biggest game in franchise history because it's the

390
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,039
next one. That's it, because it's the next one. That's

391
00:19:18,079 --> 00:19:20,960
been the mindset and mentality of this group. They've stayed

392
00:19:21,039 --> 00:19:24,240
even keeled. There's confidence this team has confidence, but not

393
00:19:24,279 --> 00:19:27,720
overlooking anyone. They know whoever comes here has to play

394
00:19:27,839 --> 00:19:31,240
us the tight end. Brenton Strange talking about Trevor Lawrence

395
00:19:31,559 --> 00:19:34,400
and if Trevor Lawrence can be the next Josh Allen quote,

396
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,599
He's a special dude. He's done it over his career.

397
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,559
He's doing it at a super high level right now.

398
00:19:39,599 --> 00:19:41,759
He's a great leader for our team, comes out, sets

399
00:19:41,759 --> 00:19:45,119
the tone for us every game. Trevor's being Trevor. Trevor

400
00:19:45,319 --> 00:19:49,160
is special. So there's certainly a case we made here

401
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,440
for Jacksonville, who is the hottest team in the league

402
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,680
right now. That's for Buffalo. Is the seventh straight year

403
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,279
they've been in the playoffs. Sean McDermott. Haters need to

404
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,640
remember where this franchise was when he got here, which

405
00:19:59,759 --> 00:20:03,680
was bottom feeders. And they've won at least one game

406
00:20:03,799 --> 00:20:06,920
every year twenty twenty, twenty one, twenty two, twenty three,

407
00:20:07,039 --> 00:20:10,240
twenty four. Each of the last five playoffs they've won

408
00:20:10,599 --> 00:20:12,839
a playoff game at least won. They lost twice to

409
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,279
Casey and the conference championship game. They did lose twice

410
00:20:15,279 --> 00:20:18,000
at home in twenty two to twenty three, but they've

411
00:20:18,079 --> 00:20:20,680
won at least one game every season. Last year, they

412
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,160
blew out the Broncos, beat the Ravens, and lost an

413
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,359
overtime at Case, just short of the Super Bowl. They're

414
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,160
coming off a game in which they rested pretty much

415
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:32,759
everyone still dominated the Jets. Not hard to do. Josh

416
00:20:32,759 --> 00:20:35,920
Allen's got a sore right foot, all right, James Cook,

417
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:40,200
the NFL's leading rusher, he's banged up. The kicker may

418
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,960
be a concern here. Matt Prater aggregated aggravated a quad

419
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,279
injury in the first half. You don't want a kicker

420
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,240
injury in a pickham priced game in the postseason. You

421
00:20:49,279 --> 00:20:52,359
really don't. And it's worth noting. Even though the Bills

422
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:56,720
have won at least one win every year, they've never

423
00:20:56,759 --> 00:20:59,680
won a road playoff game under Sew McDermott, oh and five.

424
00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:02,400
The last time the Bills won a road playoff game

425
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,079
nineteen ninety two in Miami. It's been a while.

426
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,759
Speaker 1: It has been a while, Teddy covers and I got

427
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:16,279
questions in the comments section. We're gonna get to here

428
00:21:16,279 --> 00:21:18,400
in just a little bit. Let's get through some more

429
00:21:18,519 --> 00:21:22,720
of these games. We've got the forty nine ers, yes.

430
00:21:22,799 --> 00:21:24,400
Speaker 2: My team to win it all.

431
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: And boy do they not look like the team that

432
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,519
can even quite possibly win it all.

433
00:21:30,599 --> 00:21:31,519
Speaker 2: But the good news is.

434
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,880
Speaker 1: Neither do the Philadelphia Eagles. Shout out to Dan Alexander.

435
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:39,079
All of his team was rested yesterday and they had

436
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,519
multiple opportunities to win that game, but it just looked

437
00:21:41,519 --> 00:21:42,240
like they didn't care.

438
00:21:42,279 --> 00:21:46,079
Speaker 2: Teddy. When you have teams like that going into Week eighteen.

439
00:21:45,759 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 1: Before they go into the playoffs, there's a rust versus

440
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,400
rest factor, which we know games that matter versus don't matter,

441
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,200
but kind of get into that. I saw some of

442
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:59,559
the stuff in your notes to start the show talk

443
00:21:59,559 --> 00:22:03,160
about how these must win teams, teams that don't matter

444
00:22:03,279 --> 00:22:05,640
now go into the playoffs.

445
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,079
Speaker 3: They go in looking to win at the playoff game.

446
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 1: No, I mean like, sorry, let me elaborate a little

447
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,279
bit more. Right, So, this is an Eagles team midweek

448
00:22:16,319 --> 00:22:18,559
they say never mind, we're gonna rest everybody.

449
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 2: Don't win the game.

450
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 1: Now they're headed into the playoffs. Do those does it

451
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,799
just not matter? Week eighteen is like, hey, now we're

452
00:22:26,799 --> 00:22:29,720
going to rest our injuries. Now we're healthy. Versus a

453
00:22:29,799 --> 00:22:31,279
Niners team that did not do that.

454
00:22:32,319 --> 00:22:35,319
Speaker 3: I think it matters. I think it's advantaged Philadelphia in

455
00:22:35,319 --> 00:22:40,119
that regard, and again, where teams get into trouble in

456
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:44,519
the postseason. You hey, you clinched the first round. You

457
00:22:44,519 --> 00:22:47,559
clinch the first round by you clinch the number one seed,

458
00:22:47,839 --> 00:22:50,359
your rest starters. Week eighteen, you have a week off,

459
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,680
and that was three weeks since you played, you know,

460
00:22:53,079 --> 00:22:56,920
and that's too much. And that's why teams that are

461
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:58,400
clinched to buy a lot of times they'll play guys

462
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,000
in week eighteen, Philadelphia can clinch of buy. And Philadelphia

463
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,440
didn't care about seating. They don't care about seating. They

464
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,160
care about making the playoffs or getting a week off.

465
00:23:07,519 --> 00:23:10,440
Philly got their week off this past week. My powering

466
00:23:10,519 --> 00:23:15,839
number has this Eagles minus six. The markets opened Eagles

467
00:23:15,839 --> 00:23:17,720
minus three and a half is the biggest differential in

468
00:23:17,759 --> 00:23:20,720
any game that I had, So I have a two

469
00:23:20,759 --> 00:23:23,240
and a half point difference here in favor of Philadelphia.

470
00:23:23,559 --> 00:23:26,279
Total forty six and a half. Last night, we are

471
00:23:26,319 --> 00:23:30,240
seeing some under money here forty five and a half

472
00:23:30,279 --> 00:23:33,839
in some locations. And in fact, if there's one emergency

473
00:23:33,839 --> 00:23:35,160
betting on the ert on today show, let's do it

474
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:40,279
right here, right now. Cal what do you say if

475
00:23:40,279 --> 00:23:46,519
you like Deyonder, bet it now? Forty six. I'm seeing

476
00:23:46,519 --> 00:23:50,799
as low as forty fives on the otological live on screen,

477
00:23:51,039 --> 00:23:53,079
and again there's nothing. It's not crazy. Oh my god,

478
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,400
this line's going to steam down to forty two if

479
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,680
the weather's bad. It could, but I don't anticipate we're

480
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,400
going to see a whole lot of over money for

481
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,680
this one, not based on a what we saw from

482
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,640
Sampcisco last week and b what we seen for Philadelphia

483
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,519
offensively pretty much over the course of the last two months.

484
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,759
But my number says Philly six. And if you watch

485
00:24:12,799 --> 00:24:14,519
the forty nine er Seahowks game, you already know you know,

486
00:24:14,519 --> 00:24:17,519
I mean, the offensive line got absolutely destroyed and they

487
00:24:17,519 --> 00:24:19,880
can't win a playoff game in Philadelphia. The offsive line

488
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,000
plays like that. Again, one of the reasons we like

489
00:24:23,039 --> 00:24:24,920
to watch games and not just look at box scores.

490
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,480
If you look at Brock Purty's box score numbers, they

491
00:24:27,519 --> 00:24:29,799
look like he sucked, you know, nineteen to twenty seven

492
00:24:29,799 --> 00:24:32,240
for one hundred and twenty seven yards, no touchdowns, one big,

493
00:24:32,279 --> 00:24:37,160
three sacks, twenty seven pass demps. You know for Buck

494
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,039
twenty seven, that's not good. If you watch the game,

495
00:24:40,079 --> 00:24:41,759
you know how good Brock Purty was rock Purty was

496
00:24:41,759 --> 00:24:45,519
outstanding in that ball game, you know, but the offsitive

497
00:24:45,559 --> 00:24:49,079
line literally gave him zero time on any plays. So

498
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,519
he was constantly under pressure and trying to do stuff

499
00:24:51,559 --> 00:24:52,680
on the run on the fly, and I thought he

500
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,000
did really well. The forty nine ers dems, I thought

501
00:24:55,039 --> 00:24:57,160
they really missed Fred Warner. This was the game where

502
00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,160
they missed Fred war You know, Seattle's running backs thirty

503
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,759
for a Bucks seventy one on the ground, You're not

504
00:25:02,759 --> 00:25:04,839
gonna win playoff games. Werena give them up five yards

505
00:25:04,839 --> 00:25:09,079
of carry where their veteran leaders making plays. Nope, Christian

506
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:13,559
McCaffrey cost him any chance to win when he boffed

507
00:25:13,559 --> 00:25:16,200
that pass office hands at the Seahawks three yard line

508
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,440
for an interception. You know quote, it's a play I

509
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,559
have to make, absolutely have to make. I expect nothing

510
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:26,279
less to make that play. It's completely on me. Minus

511
00:25:26,279 --> 00:25:29,680
six turnover differential. That's the worst of any playoff team

512
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,920
among defenses on postseason teams, forty nine Ers one of

513
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,359
the three worst to the points allowed per game, expected

514
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,599
points allowed per game, yards per play allowed, takeaways all

515
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,160
over the last five weeks of the season. Least productive

516
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,440
pass rush in the league this season. Haven't shown any

517
00:25:46,519 --> 00:25:49,119
signs of improvement down the stretch. Oh. By the way,

518
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:54,400
de Winters, linebacker linebacker Tatum Bethune both got hurt that

519
00:25:54,519 --> 00:25:57,160
could sideline them this week. Injuries worth noting. We've got

520
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:58,839
to have to see if Trent Williams plays the OFFSI

521
00:25:58,839 --> 00:26:01,799
of line. His absence was a normal Ricky Piersoll's absence

522
00:26:01,799 --> 00:26:06,079
was enormous. The wide receiver Shanahan quote, we're ready for it.

523
00:26:06,079 --> 00:26:07,640
It would have been nice to have a home game here,

524
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,279
or both home games and get a buye. But it

525
00:26:09,319 --> 00:26:11,400
is what it is. This team's been through a lot

526
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,640
this year, and now we got to do it the

527
00:26:13,759 --> 00:26:16,000
hard way. I don't love that quote. I don't want

528
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:17,400
to talk about how the team's been through a lot

529
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,519
this year. San Francisco playoff history twenty twenty one, they

530
00:26:21,559 --> 00:26:24,359
won two road games, I lost the NFC champions Game

531
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,200
at the Rams. Twenty twenty two, they won two home games,

532
00:26:27,599 --> 00:26:30,440
then lost the NFC Championship game at Philly. Twenty twenty three,

533
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,720
won two home games, lost Super Bowl to KC. Last year,

534
00:26:33,759 --> 00:26:36,920
did not make the playoffs, but obviously the last three

535
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:38,680
times they've been in the postingson they've won at least

536
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,920
two games. I'm not sure this year's team is gonna

537
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:48,119
win two games four. Last year they won three home games,

538
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,119
they won the Super Bowl twenty three, they lost a

539
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,960
wildcard round at Tampa. Twenty two, they won two home

540
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,599
games and lost Super Bowl to KC. Twenty one, they

541
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,039
lost a wildcard round at Tampa. So as long as

542
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,079
not playing at Tampa, they should be fine. Fangio's defense

543
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,000
elite numbers and this absolutely carried them to a title

544
00:27:04,079 --> 00:27:06,720
last year. The offense has been hit or miss. You know,

545
00:27:06,799 --> 00:27:08,559
last time we saw the starters, they didn't give play

546
00:27:08,559 --> 00:27:11,240
a pass after halftime and they still won at Buffalo,

547
00:27:11,279 --> 00:27:13,960
which speaks volumes about what this defense is Capeler doing.

548
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,079
Fangio has that defense playing at a very high level

549
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,799
right now. That could be a problem if San Franz

550
00:27:20,839 --> 00:27:21,960
offs the line once again.

551
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,559
Speaker 2: Isn't healthy fraud alert?

552
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: Well, we're gonna ask Teddy if he thinks they are frauds.

553
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:35,319
The New England Patriots taking on the Los Angeles Chargers. Teddy,

554
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,279
I don't know what to make of this Patriots team. Honestly,

555
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,720
like I there's been there are three teams. I said

556
00:27:40,759 --> 00:27:44,279
were frauds start year, the Chicago Bears, my Denver Broncos,

557
00:27:44,319 --> 00:27:46,200
who are now the number one seed, and the New

558
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,720
England Patriots. All three of these teams, I will say

559
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,359
though New England has beaten one team with a winning record.

560
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,440
After the Ravens loss last night, they no longer had

561
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:57,359
a winning record.

562
00:27:58,559 --> 00:28:00,839
Speaker 2: What do you make of that? Why is this Patriots

563
00:28:00,839 --> 00:28:03,599
seem a little fraudulent? Or have I just been dead

564
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:04,559
wrong all year long?

565
00:28:05,559 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 3: So my parag norm for this game is two. So

566
00:28:08,759 --> 00:28:10,000
the markets are at three and a half for what

567
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,839
it's worth. I'm seeing four is out there, and I

568
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,519
actually wrote a two and a quarter, so you can

569
00:28:14,519 --> 00:28:16,920
make a case for two and a half for New

570
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,759
England here. But my numbers on the other side of

571
00:28:20,799 --> 00:28:24,000
three compared to where the betting markets are, and we

572
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,880
are seeing there's a first four has popped for New

573
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:33,839
England depending what the weather forecast looks here, I'm not

574
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,799
I don't think this line's coming down. So do we do?

575
00:28:38,839 --> 00:28:40,720
We say emergency Betyler lock in at three and a

576
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,079
half now with a four popping up, you know, I

577
00:28:43,079 --> 00:28:45,160
mean there's there's three with juice and some leading indicator

578
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:51,319
shops let's do it. Let's do one more met them

579
00:28:51,319 --> 00:28:53,039
now a minus three and a half. It's not going

580
00:28:53,079 --> 00:28:55,160
to three. You know, it can only go up. It's

581
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,799
not gonna hurt you. A lock in at three and

582
00:28:56,839 --> 00:28:59,160
a half right now, I'm not convinced it's gonna go

583
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,880
to the moon, but I'm fairly convinced we're not going

584
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,240
to see the frees in this game for the Chargers.

585
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,400
And again my numbers two and a quarter, two and

586
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:10,680
a half. So it's I'm giving you an emergency betting

587
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,240
alert for a line that I think is too high

588
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,640
to begin with. But let's recognize what the markets are saying.

589
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,640
The markets are saying. You know, the Chargers use twenty

590
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,799
nine different offensive lock in combinations this year. That's third

591
00:29:22,799 --> 00:29:25,079
most in the league. They ranked dead last, and past

592
00:29:25,119 --> 00:29:27,279
block win rate second to last, and run block win

593
00:29:27,359 --> 00:29:31,519
but run block win rate. You know, Herbert took up

594
00:29:31,519 --> 00:29:34,160
beating this year. You know they did. I mean, the

595
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,519
defensive depth is there. They were sitting starters and they

596
00:29:36,519 --> 00:29:38,960
held the Broncos two hundred and forty yarders yesterday, all three

597
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,079
in the red zone for Denver. Herbert's rested this week.

598
00:29:42,759 --> 00:29:47,160
You know, twenty four no no playoff history success in

599
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,200
recent years. Twenty four they lost in the wildcard round

600
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,039
at Houston, twenty two they do that twenty seven to

601
00:29:53,039 --> 00:29:56,000
nothing lead at Jacksonville and the wildcard round. Their last

602
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,200
playoff win came in twenty eighteen the Wildcard round at Baltimore.

603
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,720
They lost that New Wing in the next week. Since

604
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,319
the two thousand and seven trip to face New England

605
00:30:04,319 --> 00:30:07,799
the AFC Championship Game, where they lost three playoff wins

606
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,839
in the last you know, nineteen years, and the only

607
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,200
Super Bowl appearance came in nineteen ninety four. They were

608
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,160
the biggest underdogs in the history of the Super Bowl,

609
00:30:14,319 --> 00:30:16,960
bigger than Jets, Colts, and of course they didn't cover.

610
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,240
Look it up if you don't believe me. Bottom line,

611
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:23,119
Chargers not a team. I'm expecting to get a boatload

612
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,319
of betting market support this week. Now we all know

613
00:30:26,359 --> 00:30:28,440
the Patriots playoff history. You know, their last appearance was

614
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,839
twenty twenty one. They lost that Buffalo in the wildcard round.

615
00:30:31,119 --> 00:30:33,480
Their last playoff win for New England was the twenty

616
00:30:33,519 --> 00:30:36,079
eighteen Super Bowl, that thirteen to three win over the

617
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,799
Rams with Jared Goff. But obviously the Patriots have an

618
00:30:39,839 --> 00:30:44,359
extraordinary amount of playoff success this century. Yesterday they had

619
00:30:44,359 --> 00:30:47,079
twelve rushing first downs better than eight yards per play.

620
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,039
Drake May's Live to Win the MVP didn't have any turnovers.

621
00:30:50,519 --> 00:30:54,200
But I have my concerns about New England's defense right now.

622
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:57,480
They've been called it. They've been gashed on the ground

623
00:30:57,799 --> 00:31:00,920
from weeks ten on opponent's average four point seven yards

624
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,039
per carry, one hundred and thirty one rushing yards per game.

625
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,839
And you talked about it wins against playoff teams this year. Well,

626
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,720
let's see, they beat the Bills by a field goal

627
00:31:09,759 --> 00:31:16,359
in Week five and oh that's it. You know. The

628
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,400
only two other games against playoff teams they lost to

629
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,960
Pittsburgh at home and lost the Buffalo at home, and

630
00:31:22,279 --> 00:31:23,960
that twenty one zing lead against the Bills in that

631
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,480
ball game. So it's not like we can call New

632
00:31:26,519 --> 00:31:29,720
England battle tested in the way that I think the

633
00:31:29,799 --> 00:31:30,359
Chargers are.

634
00:31:31,759 --> 00:31:36,079
Speaker 1: Teddy Covers is battle tested. Let everybody know what you

635
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,920
like to do for the NFL playoffs in terms of

636
00:31:39,319 --> 00:31:43,400
finding edges, using your power ratings, trying to really hone in.

637
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,759
Speaker 2: You mentioned there's not a lot of games left, right

638
00:31:46,079 --> 00:31:47,319
How selective are you?

639
00:31:48,279 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 1: And kind of let anybody know if they want to

640
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,480
jump on board with you through the Super Bowl, what

641
00:31:52,519 --> 00:31:53,079
they need to do.

642
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 3: Oh, I'm going to be an action this week. You know,

643
00:31:55,319 --> 00:31:57,519
there's a if you hear me talking now, you can

644
00:31:57,559 --> 00:31:59,359
probably get a sense of some of the teams I'm

645
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,519
looking at, and I would expect by midweek will be

646
00:32:02,559 --> 00:32:04,400
locked and loaded. I made me able to have something

647
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,880
up for five dollars Tuesday. Tomorrow, we'll see. I'm going

648
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,599
to try to get some NFL posted early this week.

649
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,160
And of course you guys got to check out those

650
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,039
five dollar Tuesday plays at wagertalk dot com. Every cap

651
00:32:14,119 --> 00:32:17,039
or with plays available for just five bucks, so especially

652
00:32:17,079 --> 00:32:19,240
for newbies' a great chance to get on board and

653
00:32:19,279 --> 00:32:22,200
try out wager Talk four the first time. When it

654
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,400
comes to the postseason, obviously will be in action this week,

655
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:26,240
will be in action, and how many player I don't know.

656
00:32:26,279 --> 00:32:27,720
I don't know how many players are gonna have cal

657
00:32:28,839 --> 00:32:30,400
I know there's a handful of games that stand out

658
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:31,640
to me this week. We'll see what the lines do

659
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,440
for next week. Certainly when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday,

660
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,640
I put on a proper port Teddy's legendary proper report.

661
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,079
It's not legendary. I just talked to a lot of

662
00:32:39,079 --> 00:32:41,079
guys here in Vegas. One of the advantage of living

663
00:32:41,079 --> 00:32:42,599
in this town for thirty years is that you get

664
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,880
to know everyone and you get the sense of I

665
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:48,440
do a lot of talking with some of the guys

666
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:52,160
who I really respect the week when the props come out,

667
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,240
and I put together a pretty significant report usually eight, ten,

668
00:32:55,319 --> 00:32:58,759
twelve proper recommendations plus side total for the big game.

669
00:32:58,799 --> 00:33:01,319
But you know, football's good down the stretch seventy one

670
00:33:01,359 --> 00:33:04,720
percent over the last five weeks, last nine Sundays seventy percent.

671
00:33:05,759 --> 00:33:07,359
So we're making some money. We've had some real good

672
00:33:07,359 --> 00:33:10,240
postseasons in recent years as well. So visit the whole page,

673
00:33:10,359 --> 00:33:15,160
ww Buzz, backslash, TC oversit the website, Waytalk dot com

674
00:33:15,799 --> 00:33:17,680
to get on board.

675
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:23,079
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep it going. Here's an interesting uh.

676
00:33:23,759 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: I don't know what to make some of these teams, Teddy,

677
00:33:26,039 --> 00:33:30,119
I really really don't. The Houston Texans. I keep thinking

678
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:34,200
they're good and then they just let me down. Versus

679
00:33:34,359 --> 00:33:39,279
subpar teams like the Raiders yesterday. Woo boy, was that

680
00:33:39,319 --> 00:33:41,720
an interesting one. Versus the Colts and then the Steelers

681
00:33:41,799 --> 00:33:45,359
last night. Did the Steelers win that game, Teddy? Or

682
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,240
did the Ravens lose it? How did you view that game?

683
00:33:48,359 --> 00:33:50,920
I watched start to finish.

684
00:33:51,559 --> 00:33:53,079
Speaker 2: I'd be over. I don't know how I got to

685
00:33:53,119 --> 00:33:53,519
cash that.

686
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,359
Speaker 1: That looked dead on arrival at halftime, but it was

687
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:57,599
exciting second half.

688
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,519
Speaker 2: I will say this, Aaron Rodgers at times looks forty two.

689
00:34:01,559 --> 00:34:03,240
And then he went off on a run and I thought, hey,

690
00:34:03,279 --> 00:34:05,480
Aaron's not as slow as I thought he was.

691
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:09,639
Speaker 1: But ultimately I thought the Ravens were the better team

692
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:13,079
on the field. Just continued to beat themselves like we've

693
00:34:13,079 --> 00:34:14,400
seen them do all season.

694
00:34:14,119 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 3: Long, Shrue and and in many previous postseasons. You know,

695
00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:22,239
I mean Baltimore. Since since the lights went out game

696
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,920
in the Super Bowl, Baltimore has had an extra I mean,

697
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:29,000
we can call it bad luck. They found a way

698
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,519
to beat themselves. So Pittsburgh won. I mean Pittsburgh raby

699
00:34:32,559 --> 00:34:34,239
from behind multiple times in the fourth quarter. We got

700
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,000
even credit for that, but Pittsburgh's defense blew the league

701
00:34:37,559 --> 00:34:39,840
and gave up what should have been the game winning

702
00:34:40,039 --> 00:34:43,239
forty four yard field goal attempts. So we'll call it.

703
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,320
Did Pittsburgh win it or Baltimore lose it. A little

704
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,239
bit from Colum A, a little bit from Column B.

705
00:34:48,119 --> 00:34:51,360
My powering number, Houston minus two and a half. The

706
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:55,840
markets opened three slash three and a half. I'm seeing

707
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,239
three and a half and three's out there now. I'm

708
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,559
not sure or where it's gonna land. If it's gonna

709
00:35:02,639 --> 00:35:06,320
land Houston three and a half for Pittsburgh. If you

710
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,400
want Pittsburgh plus three and a half or Houston minus three,

711
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,480
it wouldn't be a disaster to lock in now on

712
00:35:12,559 --> 00:35:16,039
either side. I really don't have a sense of which

713
00:35:16,079 --> 00:35:17,920
way the markets are gonna move on this game. I

714
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,239
know there's not much support out there for Pittsburgh, but

715
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:24,440
I'm confident that there's only public love for Aaron Rodgers

716
00:35:24,559 --> 00:35:28,159
and some disrespect for Houston being asked to win by

717
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,719
margin in the cold on Monday night. So where's this

718
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:35,320
line gonna go? I don't know. Three with three and

719
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,079
a half. Maybe maybe the smart thing to do is

720
00:35:37,079 --> 00:35:38,280
grab the three and a half if you like the

721
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,400
Steelers now, but I really I don't have I can

722
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,599
emergency betting alerts. I'm not convinced I know which way

723
00:35:43,599 --> 00:35:47,320
this line's gonna move, And of course you talked about

724
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,239
the end of that game. The pitchy pitchy woo wu

725
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,920
on the final play got the Houston another defensive touchdown.

726
00:35:52,119 --> 00:35:55,039
It still doesn't cover nine and a half Texans plus

727
00:35:55,039 --> 00:35:58,400
seventeen turnover margin. That's number two in the NFL. Sometimes

728
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:00,760
we think the turnover margin teams are little bit fraudulent,

729
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,320
so used to no worse. Note to Houston plus seventeen.

730
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,400
Recent playoff history twenty four, they beat the Chargers in

731
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,760
the wildcard round, lost that KC Division round. Twenty three,

732
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,239
blew out Cleveland the wildcard round, lost that Baltimore Division round.

733
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:16,880
So they've won a playoff game each of the last

734
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,639
two years in comfortable fashion on this field. You know CJ.

735
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,079
Stroud to make O'Ryan's three years three playoffs that won

736
00:36:23,119 --> 00:36:26,440
at least one game the first two tries defense elite

737
00:36:26,599 --> 00:36:28,679
top ten versus the rush, top three versus the pass.

738
00:36:28,679 --> 00:36:30,039
They go in to the playoffs on a nine game

739
00:36:30,079 --> 00:36:35,039
winning streak. Davis Mills saved their season. Either what Carson

740
00:36:35,039 --> 00:36:38,079
Wentz couldn't do in Minnesota or Joe Flaccow in Cincinnati

741
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,920
or Philip Rivers in Andy. He kept the team winning

742
00:36:41,119 --> 00:36:44,800
when the starting quarterback went down, and of course Houston,

743
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,400
you know, talk about confidence level. They're only the fifteen

744
00:36:47,519 --> 00:36:50,039
since nineteen ninety to open the season oh and three

745
00:36:50,559 --> 00:36:53,920
and reached the playoffs. I didn't love either one of

746
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,239
these quotes. I'll be honest. Here's to meet Goryan's talking

747
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:02,119
about the team in the past tense quote. Our guys

748
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,719
were able to accomplish a lot of great things, no

749
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,199
matter how dim it looked. I'm proud of our guys

750
00:37:07,199 --> 00:37:09,280
for continuing to battle every single week and finding ways

751
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,440
to win games. Now we finish on a high note

752
00:37:12,679 --> 00:37:15,320
to win against a really good team. I don't love

753
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,840
that tense wise. It's one of the mental things, and

754
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:20,920
maybe I'm overreacting to it. Derek Stingley, the defense at

755
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:25,239
Black the defensive back quote, we treated every game like

756
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,760
it was a playoff game. So that's how we went

757
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:29,679
on our streak winning all these games down the stretch.

758
00:37:30,159 --> 00:37:32,639
That concerns me. I want a team that can dial

759
00:37:32,679 --> 00:37:35,519
it up a notch right now. Houston saying that. He's saying, oh,

760
00:37:35,519 --> 00:37:38,639
we played at the max level this whole time, so

761
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,800
whatever that's worth. I don't know if that's bet against

762
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:45,360
for Houston. I do know that the markets aren't undervaluing

763
00:37:45,639 --> 00:37:48,719
the Texans in this point spread range. As for Pittsburgh,

764
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,320
I mean you talked about it. The defense failed to

765
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,599
hold the league twice in the fourth quarter as Rodgers

766
00:37:52,679 --> 00:37:54,760
drove them down the field for the lead, and they

767
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:56,519
had a missed forty four yard field goal and not

768
00:37:56,559 --> 00:37:58,320
a fifty four yard or a sixty four yard It

769
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,840
was a forty four yarder. That's the playoffs, so obviously lucky.

770
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,000
Recent playoff history for Pittsburgh that made the playoffs in

771
00:38:05,039 --> 00:38:08,039
twenty seventeen, in twenty twenty, in twenty twenty one, in

772
00:38:08,079 --> 00:38:11,480
twenty twenty three, in twenty twenty four one and done

773
00:38:11,639 --> 00:38:15,000
every single time, lost in the wildcard round every single time.

774
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,519
All four losses since twenty twenty have come by double

775
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,679
digit margins. Non competitive in defeat for Mike Tomlins squad.

776
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,079
Aaron Rodgers last playoff game he lost at San Francis

777
00:38:25,159 --> 00:38:27,519
Go to Home thirteen to ten in twenty twenty one.

778
00:38:27,599 --> 00:38:31,400
It's been a while for him, you know, since the

779
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,400
Super Bowl win in twenty eleven. For Aaron Rodgers seven

780
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:38,159
playoff wins, nine playoff losses, he won more than one

781
00:38:38,159 --> 00:38:40,480
playoff game and the season only one twenty eighteen, when

782
00:38:40,519 --> 00:38:43,679
they lost the NFT Championship game to Atlanta. He also

783
00:38:43,679 --> 00:38:45,639
reached the chompis champion team in twenty twenty one, with

784
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:49,039
Green Bay lost to the Bucks in that one. But

785
00:38:49,159 --> 00:38:53,320
Pittsburgh certainly a team that the betting markets do not

786
00:38:53,559 --> 00:38:58,239
respect right now, and that's clearly indicated by Houston laying

787
00:38:58,239 --> 00:38:59,360
more than a field goal here.

788
00:39:00,199 --> 00:39:04,039
Speaker 1: All right, Teddy, we've got let's call like ten ish

789
00:39:04,079 --> 00:39:06,639
minutes to go over some other stuff. Do you want

790
00:39:06,679 --> 00:39:08,280
to take some questions from the chat? Do you want

791
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:09,840
to go into strength of schedule?

792
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 2: Or I got first and then perfect, Let's.

793
00:39:14,119 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 1: Do that first, because I think this is one of

794
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,039
the more important things from a power ratings perspective.

795
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 2: How much do you measure strength of schedule?

796
00:39:22,039 --> 00:39:22,159
Speaker 3: Right?

797
00:39:22,199 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 1: So when you put in your weights, is strength of

798
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:27,239
schedule going into the playoffs pretty heavy?

799
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:31,599
Speaker 3: Yes? For the wildcard round? It's a as big a

800
00:39:31,639 --> 00:39:34,519
factor as there is, all right, in my and in

801
00:39:34,559 --> 00:39:38,840
this and in my opinion, okay, there's always that, and

802
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:42,239
and certainly when you look at the mainstream strength of

803
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,679
schedule numbers, I have huge differences between the mainstream numbers.

804
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,119
This is how I do my strength of schedule. I

805
00:39:49,159 --> 00:39:53,880
go through every team every week and look at the

806
00:39:54,519 --> 00:39:57,360
my powering number for their opponent on the game the

807
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,360
week was played. Did you play Indie when they were

808
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:01,840
good or did you play Indy when they were bad?

809
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,280
At the end of the season the markets don't you know,

810
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:09,280
the Cults have a record and you're not gonna get

811
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,360
any differential. Did you get Indy when they had Daniel

812
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,679
Jones behind QB or not. Did you get Jacksonville early

813
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:16,639
season when they struggled, or Jacksonville they were on a

814
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,800
roll late. Did you get Houston earlier season when they

815
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,800
struggled or Houston when they were on a roll late.

816
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,880
Did you get green Bay when Jordan Love was healthy

817
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,119
or green Bay with Jordan Love wasn't And on and

818
00:40:26,159 --> 00:40:30,159
on down the line. What you get from the mainstream

819
00:40:30,199 --> 00:40:33,800
numbers is none of that nuance. What you get from

820
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:38,679
my numbers is all that nuance. My powering numbers, strength

821
00:40:38,679 --> 00:40:41,800
of schedule numbers. All right, I'm gonna go through the

822
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:47,320
fourteen playoff teams from toughest to weakest, and there's a

823
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:50,280
bunch in the middle. There's one that stands out as

824
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,440
by far the toughest schedule of any playoff team, and

825
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:56,320
that's the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are battle tested. Based

826
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,559
on my Powering numbers on the week the game was played,

827
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,960
Billy's average opponent was nearly a point better than any

828
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:07,519
other team in the playoff field. That's significant. Philly's battle tested.

829
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:12,039
After Philly, we got Green Bay, the Chargers, the Bills,

830
00:41:12,119 --> 00:41:17,199
the Steelers, the Panthers, the Texans, the Rams, the Bears,

831
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,800
all kind of grouped really tight together. We'll call them

832
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,880
middle of the pack. Strength to schedule. Eagles toughest all

833
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,239
those teams. Middle of the pack. We've got five teams

834
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:32,800
with a notably weak strength of schedule, including the weakest

835
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,400
of them all, which is New England. New England straight schedule. Again,

836
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,159
I've been doing this for a long time. New England

837
00:41:37,159 --> 00:41:39,000
strength schedule, I believe, is the weakest that I've ever

838
00:41:39,039 --> 00:41:43,519
seen for any team ever. They played bottom feeders all

839
00:41:43,599 --> 00:41:47,280
year long. They're they're they're nearly a point worse than

840
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,239
the next team, you know, a point weaker for opponent

841
00:41:50,519 --> 00:41:53,760
than the next team. I got Denver, San fran Jacksonville, Seattle,

842
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:57,119
all as weak opposition this year did not step up

843
00:41:57,159 --> 00:42:01,039
in class. So Seattle Jacksonville, sand France, Denver, all week,

844
00:42:01,679 --> 00:42:07,280
New England really really really weak, Philly really really really strong,

845
00:42:07,599 --> 00:42:09,239
everyone else the middle of a pack.

846
00:42:09,519 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 2: How many points.

847
00:42:10,599 --> 00:42:12,639
Speaker 3: Are my strength of seddle numbers? Now you look at

848
00:42:12,639 --> 00:42:15,599
the Sagara numbers. The Sagard numbers are silly, you know.

849
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,039
Sagard numbers have the Rams as the one of the

850
00:42:18,039 --> 00:42:20,519
toughest schedules, the Texans is one of the toughest schedules,

851
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,920
the forty nine ers as one of the toughest schedules.

852
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:25,199
Those are these are mainstream numbers.

853
00:42:25,599 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 1: Way how many points different from strength of schedule wise?

854
00:42:29,159 --> 00:42:30,119
Speaker 2: Or how many? How many?

855
00:42:30,199 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 1: How much do you weigh the difference between the Eagles

856
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:33,480
and the Patriots off Eagles are number one.

857
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 3: Patriots almost a field goal difference per game per game,

858
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,800
that's eighteen weeks seas oh no, yeah, so seventeen weeks

859
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,559
at seventeen games, Yeah, just shy of a field goal

860
00:42:45,599 --> 00:42:46,000
per game?

861
00:42:46,199 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 2: Holy cow, Okay, that's a huge difference.

862
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,679
Speaker 3: Yes, it is over the course of the season, It

863
00:42:50,679 --> 00:42:55,880
really is. The Sagard numbers are nonsense, They're silly. When

864
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,400
I look at the difference, So what why I was

865
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,519
doing is right down the weeks one through seventeen. I

866
00:42:59,599 --> 00:43:01,400
check it on like Friday, and then I check it

867
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,519
again on Monday and see how much the week eighteen

868
00:43:03,599 --> 00:43:06,119
numbers influenced. And like, you know, the week eighteen numbers

869
00:43:06,159 --> 00:43:10,000
he had. You know, green Bay have got easier because

870
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:14,199
they faced faced the tougher schedule. They face Minnesota yesterday significantly.

871
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:17,280
You know, Phillies went down by five places they faced

872
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,960
Washington yesterday. It's silliness. You know, Seattle's went up eight

873
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:24,119
because they faced San Fran eight against that against that

874
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,840
Niners team. You know, in the final week of the scene,

875
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,519
looking at the whole the full season numbers, ranking all

876
00:43:30,519 --> 00:43:33,280
thirty two teams, Seattle dropped eight spots or went up

877
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,519
eight spots from the one game against San Fran with

878
00:43:36,639 --> 00:43:39,360
when trand friend of net Trump Williams, there's the mainstream

879
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:42,480
numbers for strength to schedule are garbage, Rip them up,

880
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,920
throw them out. I think my numbers are meaningful. But

881
00:43:46,079 --> 00:43:47,079
that's why you watch the show.

882
00:43:48,039 --> 00:43:49,679
Speaker 2: That is why you watch the show. I love it.

883
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,239
This is this is really great.

884
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 1: I think we knew the Patriots had the week of schedule,

885
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,880
but I was very shocked to see the day that

886
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,079
the games were played, So guys, these are Teddies strengths.

887
00:43:59,119 --> 00:44:02,960
So the Eagle face a team X, I don't have

888
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,599
my schedule in front of me when that team was

889
00:44:05,639 --> 00:44:09,079
at their healthiest best, and so forth versus the Patriots

890
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,039
kind of getting the advantage of playing a team when

891
00:44:13,079 --> 00:44:16,039
maybe they were at their lowest or not as good

892
00:44:16,079 --> 00:44:17,639
as they should have been, Like the Ravens.

893
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:20,159
Speaker 3: The Patriots spent the whole season beating up on the Browns,

894
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,320
you know, or the more equivalent of the Jets and

895
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:26,159
the Browns, and the Eagles spent the whole season playing

896
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,000
you know, other playoff teams.

897
00:44:29,519 --> 00:44:32,280
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, chanting up, let's go.

898
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just gonna say, I'm gonna go through the

899
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,280
questions here just in a minute. Anything else you would

900
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,639
like to add before we get into a college football

901
00:44:38,639 --> 00:44:41,440
playoff question. I wasn't gonna answer that, but Dan already

902
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:42,920
put on the screen, so we got to answer for

903
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,920
this guy. He wants to know he has in Miami

904
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:49,320
one hundred to one to win the national championship ticket,

905
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:51,800
what do you recommend I do to Hedge? And since

906
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,840
this is still a gambling show, Teddy, I gotta let

907
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:57,280
you give this guy a little bit of bit of

908
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,719
information and as I go through to try to find

909
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,159
some fell questions.

910
00:45:01,079 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 3: It's an optimal So if you have a Miami one

911
00:45:03,519 --> 00:45:05,280
hundred and one, you're an optimal spot right now cause

912
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,039
you take old Miss at a plus price, so you

913
00:45:07,079 --> 00:45:08,920
don't even have to risk a whole lot. You know,

914
00:45:09,159 --> 00:45:11,400
you take old Miss on the money line here, and

915
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:12,639
you know, and you don't have to do it for

916
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:16,480
a lot. Again, depending on how much you want to

917
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:19,320
risk moving forward versus how much you want to make

918
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,039
sure you lock in some profit determines your unit size there.

919
00:45:22,079 --> 00:45:24,400
But for this week, it's very easy. You take ole

920
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,960
Miss on the money line and in theory you hope

921
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,079
it loses, you know, but the key is you don't

922
00:45:30,079 --> 00:45:31,599
have to lay a price. You're not laying two to one.

923
00:45:31,599 --> 00:45:33,639
You're getting a plus price on Old Miss money line.

924
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,320
Very good point, so you know you're not you're not laying.

925
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 2: You wouldn't take Ole.

926
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 1: Miss plus the points like for example, yesterday I should

927
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:44,800
have hedged my survivor right, I should have taken five four,

928
00:45:45,119 --> 00:45:47,800
three and a half with the Raiders and tried to

929
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:51,599
middle that game could have went either way down the stretch.

930
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:54,760
But would you not recommend old miss plus the points.

931
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:56,639
You think ole miss on the money line is a

932
00:45:56,679 --> 00:45:58,280
better strategy, So.

933
00:45:58,360 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 3: That's the way to hedge. It is ole miss on

934
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:04,280
the honeylone because you're risking less to win more, you know,

935
00:46:05,039 --> 00:46:07,000
and you're Dad. I mean, you can play for the

936
00:46:07,039 --> 00:46:11,639
middle and take the plus points, but the way I

937
00:46:11,639 --> 00:46:13,599
would do it would be a moneyline bed. I'm not

938
00:46:13,599 --> 00:46:15,599
trying to win. I'm not trying to middle. I'm trying

939
00:46:15,599 --> 00:46:17,440
to cash one hundred to one and make sure I

940
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,800
make something in one hundred and one doesn't cash.

941
00:46:20,079 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 2: Got it?

942
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 1: Great advice from Teddy covers. I see no questions in

943
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,920
the comment section. Lots of comments, no questions. So if

944
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:29,199
you guys have a question, I'm going to give you

945
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:33,119
about thirty more seconds. Teddy, let everybody know what you

946
00:46:33,119 --> 00:46:35,480
got going on wager talk dot com and.

947
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:36,119
Speaker 2: We'll get in here.

948
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:38,800
Speaker 1: David again, Teddy, do you feel the Rams can cover

949
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,360
that big number after they lost to them? Very good point.

950
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,760
The Rams did go into Carolina this year. It is

951
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,199
very tough to beat a team twice. But do you

952
00:46:49,199 --> 00:46:50,440
think the Panthers have it in them?

953
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 2: Again?

954
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:53,679
Speaker 3: So I watched the first game between these two teams.

955
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,800
I talked about it in the analysis. We broke down

956
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:59,400
the Carolina of the Ram and the Caroline versus the Rams.

957
00:47:01,039 --> 00:47:03,840
Carolina was extraordinary lucky to win that game, all right.

958
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:05,559
They went three or three on fourth downs and they

959
00:47:05,559 --> 00:47:07,760
were plus three in turnovers against Matt Stafford had a

960
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:09,880
bad game. After the game, all the Stafford's quotes where

961
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:12,000
I stunk today, I got to be better, et cetera,

962
00:47:12,039 --> 00:47:17,320
et cetera. In the playoffs, we expect the good teams

963
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:21,599
to step up. I had my fun with Carolina in

964
00:47:21,679 --> 00:47:28,000
Tampa yesterday, and certainly the fact that the Panthers beat

965
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,719
the Rams the first time, and sure as we're going

966
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:35,519
to get to Eli being interested, So the price isn't right.

967
00:47:35,559 --> 00:47:38,360
You know, I'm not excited about l Layana doubles here,

968
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:41,280
but this is not you know, I'm not expecting that

969
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,519
they'll end up on the dog in this one. I'm

970
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,199
it's not a game I'm likely to play, Teddy.

971
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,039
Speaker 2: I know that Super Bowl futures don't.

972
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,800
Speaker 1: Hold a lot of plus EV, but I am going

973
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:53,960
to put you on the spot here.

974
00:47:54,639 --> 00:47:57,760
Speaker 2: They want to know who is your Super Bowl champion.

975
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 3: So it's really funny because yesterday doing the end Zone live.

976
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,599
We all had to just pick pick some team and

977
00:48:05,599 --> 00:48:06,960
it didn't matter what the price. And I'm like, I'm

978
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:09,920
gonna go with the Chargers, you know. I'm like, no,

979
00:48:10,039 --> 00:48:12,719
I'm like, exactly, some team. No one's talking about. John.

980
00:48:12,679 --> 00:48:17,480
I'm like, and I think I think Herbaugh Herbert is

981
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,280
a super Bowl caliber QB, and I think they have

982
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,000
a super Bowl caliber defense. And no one was talking

983
00:48:21,039 --> 00:48:23,119
about the Chargers. So I think the Charger are live.

984
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:24,920
And then I looked at the Texans. I'm like, man,

985
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,239
the Texans are live. I look at the Jaguars, I'm like, man,

986
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:28,320
the Jaguars are alive.

987
00:48:28,679 --> 00:48:30,639
Speaker 1: You know you did mention that you're you're kind of

988
00:48:30,679 --> 00:48:32,199
obsessed with the AFC right now.

989
00:48:32,519 --> 00:48:35,159
Speaker 3: If there was one team, and actually, I'm not thinking,

990
00:48:35,159 --> 00:48:37,760
I think this might be a different conversation. I'm flipping.

991
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:40,159
If there's one team that if I'm betting one team

992
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:45,159
right now, it's Philadelphia. They're the defending champs, they've been there,

993
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:47,880
the strength of schedule is there. We know how good

994
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,280
the defense is, and someone's gonna have to go in

995
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:52,280
there and beat them. And like, they can't go off

996
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:54,599
to Seattle and win. They can't and we'll see how

997
00:48:54,599 --> 00:48:57,360
many playoff wins the Seahawks have this year. Eagles, that's

998
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:59,760
the one that I would pick. But all right, it's

999
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,599
not again. Is Philly that much liber than anyone else?

1000
00:49:02,639 --> 00:49:08,039
Speaker 2: No, okay, at this point in time. That's the unfortunate part.

1001
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:10,159
But I would agree with you.

1002
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:13,039
Speaker 1: Out of the NFC, I think Philadelphia looks, as you

1003
00:49:13,079 --> 00:49:18,039
mentioned earlier, the most battle tested. Okay, the AFC, you

1004
00:49:18,079 --> 00:49:20,519
said it. I think it's wide open. I really do.

1005
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:24,599
But out of the two AFC teams that we said

1006
00:49:24,599 --> 00:49:27,599
are maybe fraudulent, we're gonna get rid of the We're

1007
00:49:27,599 --> 00:49:31,320
gonna get rid of the Patriots. And for my little

1008
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:34,239
Broncos fandom heart that there's not much of it left

1009
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:35,639
but just a little bit of me and got a.

1010
00:49:35,559 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 2: Little oh cool.

1011
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 1: They're the number one overall seed. Should I go ahead

1012
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:40,159
and hamper those expectations?

1013
00:49:40,159 --> 00:49:40,719
Speaker 2: Now, Teddy?

1014
00:49:41,639 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 3: But I mean so about a month ago we talked

1015
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:45,840
about these two teams, and I'm like, of the two

1016
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:47,760
team of the Patriots versus the Broncos, the Bronco is

1017
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:49,159
the one I believe in, the Patriots the one that

1018
00:49:49,159 --> 00:49:51,719
I think is a little bit fraudulent, And I still

1019
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:56,159
stand by that, But what would we be shocked to

1020
00:49:56,159 --> 00:50:00,559
see a Broncos Patriots the AFC Championship game? I would

1021
00:50:00,639 --> 00:50:04,320
be yeah, I mean I think we'll see. I think

1022
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:07,159
what we talk about, you know, I mean the league

1023
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:10,599
needs to develop new stars, young stars, and you know

1024
00:50:10,679 --> 00:50:13,039
when you talk about you know, Drake a bow Nix,

1025
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:14,519
they have that potential.

1026
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 1: Very very good point. So comment section earlier talking about

1027
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:21,159
the NFL rigged. If you believe in the NFL script

1028
00:50:21,199 --> 00:50:24,119
writing theory, conspiracy, what have you?

1029
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,119
Speaker 2: There? You go, Teddy just gave it to you. Guys.

1030
00:50:26,199 --> 00:50:30,320
We need young new stars. Teddy coovers you kill.

1031
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:32,400
Speaker 3: Me out to a young new star. Trevor Lawrence is

1032
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:34,360
a young new star. You know there's plenty of them

1033
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:34,719
out there.

1034
00:50:35,079 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes old and washed up. That's the new narrative here.

1035
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:39,800
All jokes aside.

1036
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,199
Speaker 1: I'm sure Patty Mahomes is going to be back next

1037
00:50:42,199 --> 00:50:45,039
season and better than ever. Teddy covers anything you'd like

1038
00:50:45,079 --> 00:50:48,039
to leave our audience with before we hand over the

1039
00:50:48,079 --> 00:50:51,119
reins to Dan Alexander and Andy Lang for Wager Talk today.

1040
00:50:51,679 --> 00:50:54,159
Speaker 3: So we appreciate the comments, guys, We appreciate the likes.

1041
00:50:54,159 --> 00:50:56,559
We appreciate the follows. We're approaching what we got two

1042
00:50:56,639 --> 00:50:59,159
hundred and forty thousand of you. We're now following us

1043
00:50:59,159 --> 00:51:01,559
on wager Talk TV or close to it. If you

1044
00:51:01,559 --> 00:51:05,480
haven't done so, follow us and you get install lurched everything.

1045
00:51:05,559 --> 00:51:09,039
These videos go live. We got great free content every

1046
00:51:09,199 --> 00:51:11,280
single day, seven days a week, three to sext day.

1047
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:15,280
We need front on Christmas. You know, so like comment subscribe,

1048
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:17,400
We appreciate it very much. Check out my HOMEPAGWT dot

1049
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:21,199
buzzbackslash TC and what we got for playoff packages. I'm

1050
00:51:21,199 --> 00:51:23,960
sure we got something. Well.

1051
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:25,360
Speaker 2: We always have weekend Order.

1052
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:29,760
Speaker 1: We always have Flexpicks, Teddy, we have this standard uh

1053
00:51:30,119 --> 00:51:33,800
packages up on wager talk dot com. I will actually

1054
00:51:34,519 --> 00:51:37,079
get in there and say, okay, besides flexpis, besides the

1055
00:51:37,079 --> 00:51:38,960
Weekend Warrior, what do we got going on?

1056
00:51:39,519 --> 00:51:42,159
Speaker 2: I got nothing right now, nothing Teddy specific.

1057
00:51:42,559 --> 00:51:46,159
Speaker 1: Head over to wager talk dot com check out Flexpicks.

1058
00:51:46,159 --> 00:51:48,199
If you guys are looking to get a bunch of

1059
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,880
different guys for the NFL playoffs. If you guys are

1060
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:55,000
looking for TEDDYWT, Dot Buzz, Backslash TC, I'll jump in

1061
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:57,920
the comments section after I get with the sales team

1062
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:00,440
and say hey, I need a Teddy promo code just

1063
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:04,360
for the opening line report. Thank you, Teddy Covers, you

1064
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:07,320
are the best. We will see you next week for

1065
00:52:07,559 --> 00:52:10,639
the next round of the playoffs. Good luck this weekend

1066
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:12,840
everybody again, Thank you guys for watching. Don't forget to

1067
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,480
give us that thumbs up. Hit that subscribe button if

1068
00:52:15,519 --> 00:52:18,159
you're looking to be a wager Talk insider and get

1069
00:52:18,199 --> 00:52:20,480
premium access to all things of wager Talk on the

1070
00:52:20,519 --> 00:52:23,960
YouTube channels wt Dot, Buzz, Backslash Insiders,