Speaker 1: Welcome into the opening line report. Kelly Stewart here with
Teddy Covers, fresh.
Speaker 2: Off a nice week eighteen.
Speaker 1: Teddy, congratulations on cash in that big five percent ticket.
Let's get right into Wildcard week and we got a
ton of stuff to talk about today. We've got, you know,
maybe some emergency betting alerts we're gonna find out here,
and of course we're gonna talk about strength of schedule.
Speaker 2: Teddy.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw some other questions your way because I
know that we don't have a ton of game games
left right The NFL season is winding down, and I
kind of want to get the most bang for my
buck after not one but two kickers plagued me yesterday.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got lucky the week, and I had a
pair of games coming through the back door. Neither one
was the right side, including Carolina New Orleans cash another
ticket for me. It's been a real good run down
the stretch of the NFL season for the client and
I twelve and five over the last five weeks of
NFL actions, So I'll take a seventy percent run anytime.
The Sundays. We're really good down the stretch. My last
eight Sundays hit sixty better than sixty seven percent seventy
sixteen and seven, So you know, it was I couldn't
get anything in terms of breaks for like October and
in November, the back half of the season, and especially
this past weekend, we had a couple of breaks going
our favor, and that's sometimes what it takes to win
at the NFL level. Straight to schedule, we do want
to tease it now. I'm going to talk strength to
schedule in detail after we go through the six games,
and in my mind, I'm not gonna say there's no
more important factor, but there aren't many more important factors
for wild card weekend than knowing how battle tested these
teams actually are. And I'm gonna give you my numbers,
which are very different. I'll talk about some mainstream numbers.
We'll talk about what my numbers are and how they
were created strength to schedule wise, hopefully they'll give you
a nice tip. So stick around till the end of
today's show. And of course, Swarts. Noting kel thirteen games
remaining in the entirety of the NFL season, you're counting
the three college football playoff games. There's sixteen games left
in football this year, which is exactly what we had
a week eighteen, you know. So from here on out
we got to take opportunities.
Speaker 1: We need to cherish the football that we have left
until the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: I get that, Teddy.
Speaker 1: I'll quit complaining about kickers and all of the bad
beats and just appreciate that the gambling gods are going
to give us some more over the next month and
a half or so.
Speaker 3: Sure. Sure, And of course looking back at Week eighteen
real quick, the must win teams, you know, Pittsburgh Baltimore
doesn't count, Carolina, Tampa doesn't count, sat San France doesn't count.
Must win versus must win, but the must win teams
versus non must win teams. We had the Pats, the Broncos,
the Jags, all live for the number one seed in
the AFC three and oh ats double digit favorites. We
talked about, oh, the chalk eating weasels and the success
they've had this season chalk eating weasels Week eighteen six
and oh ats with the double digit favorites. I kind
of the Vikes that minus twoeve and a half. If
you lay thirteen or thirteen and a half of Minnesota,
that's on you because you know it closed. It closed
at twelve and a half and it opened at six.
So if you lead there were books that had thirteen's,
I get it. But the Bills, the Patch, the Rams,
the Broncos, the Jags, and the Vikings all covered as
double digit favorites. One other thing I wanted to note
one of the things that I go through and again
when we talk about the strength of schedule and why
I think it's so important in the playoffs, we're looking
for the best teams, the elite teams, we're expecting them
to move on. We're looking for the fraudulent teams to
go home. We talk how do we differentiate between the
elite teams and the fraudulent teams. Two things that stand
out strength to schedule turnover margin, you know, and we'll
talk a little bit about turnover margin on today's show
as well, which is going to lead us into a
very rare thing. We're gonna talk about their number one
seeds at all today. Except for this, both Denver and
Seattle both had negative turnover differentials full season. You don't
often see that for the two number one seeds heading
in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Let's get right into it, Teddy, I'm excited to talk
about some of these fraudulent teams, right, I've been screaming
fraud for a better part of the last eight weeks.
I don't know if my Denver Broncos are fraudulent. They
got the number one overall set. Seattle looked really good
the other night. And we'll get into both of those
teams here in a minute. We're going to go in
rotation order as always. Here, we've got the Panthers catching
double digits to.
Speaker 3: The Rams, yet we have no look headlines or I
don't have look ahead lines. I'm sure they were out
there somewhere for some people, but there were so many
of them. I didn't write down dozens and dozens of
potential matchups that somebody put out there. What I will
give you, guys, is my powering number. We'll talk about
where the markets opened last night, and we'll talk about
what the markets have done since the opener. And if
you're looking for the markets going crazy, you're going to
be severely disappointed because the market's have the lines opened
and they basically sat there across the board. My powering
number Rams Panthers has LA minus eight and a half.
I have a ten point differential like of Carolina, and
there are situations in the playoffs. Normally I'm gonna give
a point and a half for home field in the playoffs,
there are situations where I'll even give two to two
and a half. This is not one of those situations.
But it is a West Coast team traveling east. It's
not an early star game though. My powering number of
Rams eight and a half. The market's open ten forty
six and a half last night and we're seeing ten
forty six and a half today. I want to talk
a little bit about recent playoff history because that certainly
factors into how we approach these teams, how we think
about these teams in general. Teams that have been in
the postseason in recent years and has some success are
the teams we expect to have a chance to survive
in advance. The teams that are postseason virgins per se,
like Carolina, we expect them all right, You get your experiment.
Sometimes you get a run on the postseason virgin team,
but not usually from the bottom season ten point home
dog or you know, home virgin virgin playoff team. For
the Rams recent playoffs last year Minnesota, they beat Minnesota
at home and then lost at Philly in twenty three.
They lost at Detroit in their first playoff game twenty
two to no playoffs. Twenty one, they won multiple games
and the Super Bowl. In twenty twenty they wild Card weekend,
they won a Seattle Division game, lost at Green Bay,
and twenty eighteen McVeigh and Goff went to the Super Bowl.
So they have had a signifiant playoff experience, be significant
playoff success in recent years, including a playoff win last
year at home. They have not won on the road
in the postseason since that Super Bowl era in twenty
twenty one super victory in twenty twenty one. So when
we look at LA for the course the season, the
thing that stands out this team lost five games. Three
of the five losses you can blame straight on the
special teams, you know, is that being the Queens already
have been fired. Is that fixed now for LA? Because
special teams in the postseason, they have a tendency to
rear their early head in situations. And of course Matthew
Stafford was in the game into the fourth quarter in
Week eighteen, an old quarterback taking hits. That's concerned Devanta Adams.
Will he return I have him as questionable right now.
I imagine Adam's status as the potential to influence this
line as the week progresses. Like I said, their last
road playoff win in twenty twenty one, they lost that
Carolina right here on this field in week thirteen. If
you remember the game, and I do, the Rams only
had five third downs in the whole I mean, they
moved the ball up and down the field. They scored
four touchdowns. But wasn't Matthew Stafford's best game. After the
game as coaches where I stunk today. Carolina went three
or three on fourth downs, they were plus three in turnovers.
Stafford was throwing picks, included a pick six and ended
up being a three point game with again Carolina three
of three on fourth downs and plus three in turnovers,
and it was a three point game. So if Carolina
it's every third downers plus three in turnovers today on Saturday,
they got a chance here. But obviously we wouldn't expect
that in a rematch. And of course it is the
Rams offense that scored thirty plus and ten games. Stafford
forty seven hundred passing yards led the NFL forty six
touchdowns offense was real good. Defense was not elite down
the stretch. We'll see if that comes into play when
you talk about a team laying doubles on the highway.
Carolina is a really interesting team. They lost Week one,
their first game off a loss. Therefore this year was
Week two. Since that time, since that Week two game
offul loss, Pantas b hat eight of them eight to
no against the spread. Awful loss this year. They just
lost their ninth game on Saturday in the muck at Tampa. Obviously,
they backed into the playoffs. The team the public and
the betty markets do not like. From the strength to
schedule standpoints, SEC had a sorry from a how good
are the team's standpoints? Second had a number twenty three
at a number of thirty two teams, right, I had
a Washington and the Giants, and they dropped a twenty
four after week eighteen. So there's certainly from the mainstream
perspective and from my power ings too, Carolina. There's everybody else,
there's Carolina, which explains why they're ten point home dogs.
You know, obviously we had the five percent big ticket
winner with the Panthers on Saturday. That was a bet
against the Bucks as much as anything. That being said,
I thought Carolina would come to play. They've been exceptional
in this awful loss role and certainly you know, fortuitous cover.
It was unlucky with the bad play call on the
flea flicker fumble in the rain in the end zone.
It was unlucky with multiple ref calls, obviously including the
awful office of pass interference call that legitimately changed the game.
But they had the block field goal that made all
the difference in the points bread, they had the fourth
and eight heave, They had an incredible touchdown catch from Cocher.
You know, we escaped the field goal try on the drive,
we escaped the potential safety and the almost picked six
in the first down, and the fumble Russie on the
final played to only lose by two. It was lucky.
I'll take it. I gotta be lucky sometimes Carolina. In
that game, by the way, one of eight on third
downs they had three turnovers minus two were turnovers. They
failed to test. All right, you're supposed to go to Tampa.
All right, you're a playoff team, show me, and they
weren't good. They failed, But they get a mull again
and a chance against a team they've rebeat. So this
is not the most confident team right now, clearly, and
I don't do this very often, but I want to
revisit a quote from last week's show after Carolina was
non competitive and defeat against Seattle, I said, is this
a shot at the offensive coaching staff in Carolina? This
is a price Young quote from two weeks ago after
the Seahawks pounded them. Quote credit to them. They made
adjustments to the game plan and did a better job
of executing it. We're going to go up against different
schemes and teams that are going to make adjustments. We
need to be able to react to that and counter it.
We will watch the film and learn and from it.
That to me felt like a veiled shot at the
coaching staff. And you know what, the offense sucked again
on Saturday. For what it's worth, they got the money.
It certainly wasn't the right side and Carolina from a
betting market perspective, this is the most disrespected team still standing.
And of course there's no recent playoff history, first appearance
since David Tepper bought the team in twenty eighteen, so
the temper doesn't have to throw drinks at fans. He
can actually watch a playoff game this time around.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Teddy, I think somehow getting to cash that Carolina
NFC South.
Speaker 2: Think it was the lone bright spot of my Sunday.
Speaker 1: But I have not a lot of faith in this
Panthers team going forward. Maybe they can get in the
back door cover for their backers.
Speaker 2: We'll see.
Speaker 1: The Rams on the East Coast have been rather interesting
this year.
Speaker 2: Let's go to a game where we're talking about frauds.
Speaker 1: Shawn's in the comments section, Bears are confirmed frauds, Teddy.
Packers taking on the Chicago Bears Soldier Field. This line's
bounced back and forth since the opening. I tried to
grab both sides on a teaser, wasn't able to get
it done. But I think this is gonna be one
of the more tallying games of the week. They split
this rivalry this year once lost and lost at Soldier Field,
won in Green Bay back at Soldier Field.
Speaker 2: Kind of let me know what you think. Here are
the Bears frauds.
Speaker 3: So these two teams played well just a couple of
weeks ago, and the Packers had the game. It was
all over. All they had to do is recover the
onside kick and they couldn't recover the onside kick, and
Chicago went on, it's going to touchdown, and they went
down and got the game winning score. And it wasn't
a fun result for myself or my clients in that ballgame.
That being said, you know, it's a Packers team that's
found ways to lose games like that. This year. Let's
be real powering number, green Bay Chicago at Soldier Field.
My number is pick them the markets open. Last night,
there were minus ones for the Packers. There were minus
ones for the Bears. There were pick thems out there.
I greatered as pick them as the opener, forty six
and a half the total. What are we seeing today
minus ones for the Bears. I am seeing minus ones
for the Packers out there. You can win a fan
duel right now of forty six the prevailing total. So
we have seen a little bit of under money come
in for this one. I might I say a little bit,
I mean a little bit, you know. But that being said,
Green Bay Chicago, where's the money gonna come? You talked
Kelly a moment ago about how the Bears are being
viewed as a fraudulent team, and certainly from your standard
metrics all right, turnover margin number one in the NFL
and turnover margin plus twenty two and the betting markets.
When it comes to the postseason, they don't expect teams
that have lived off turner margin all year to continue
that because they're facing better opponents team that don't turn
the ball. Of course, the Bears don't have much recent
playoff experience since losing to the Colts with Rex Grossman
at quarterback in February twenty twenty seven. That was a
two thousand and sixth season. The Bears have three playoff
appearances in the last twenty years, one win that came
in twenty ten, So you know, they quote stumbled into
the playoffs back to back losses, although they did get
the number two seed with Washington beat and Philly, which
speaks volumes about one of the things I've been talking about.
Teams don't care about seeding once they're in, they get
a bye week. It's something that's a motivator. Seating doesn't matter. Obviously,
Philly rested startered, Chicago didn't care. They lost to the
forty nine Ers two weeks ago on a chance they
had a chance to win the last play of the game.
They lost to Detroit yesterday, last play of the game,
game winning field goal. It's not exactly a Packer scenario
where green Bay has been awful. They've lost four straight
down the stretch. Chicago's lost the pair of games on
Alma last play and again yesterday they trailed sixteen nothing
into the fourth quarter, and it's another game where Caleb
Williams showed him that he could rally them back. Concerns
for the Bears most assuredly on the defense side of
the football. This defense has allowed thirteen hundred yards over
the last three weeks. The defense ranked number thirty one
in pass rush win rate. They only four sacks the
last three games. Jordan loves time to throw. That could
be a problem for the Chicago Bears. But again, green
Bay comes in on a four game losing streak. You
know they're not actually heading the playoffs on a high note.
Jeff Halfley, the defense coordinator's name, he's bandied about. His
name is being bandied about for a bunch of jobs.
Halfley's going to be on the interview circuit this postseason,
so that is a distraction. Green Bay last year Week
eighteen played their starters and they end up losing Christian
Watson to a torn acl They ended up losing the game.
It didn't them no good This year. Matt Laflord quote
unquote learned his lesson and yesterday was a legitimate bye
week for green Bay or as close as the Gets,
and they were really banged up at the end of
the year. They're still banged up going to the playoff
Chicago with most assurely the healthier team. But we look
at green Bay contrast with green Bay did yesterday versus
what the Rams he did yesterday. You know, the Rams
had starters on the field in the fourth quarter of
the Packers played nobody. You know, Clayton Tune with the
second career start, four to the five offsive liners off,
the lineman started, a top three receivers set to top
two running back set, eight defensive starter set. Those guys
are all coming back next week. Mi Ca Parsons isn't
coming back next week. Tucker Kraft offense hasn't been the
same since Tucker Craft gotter. He's not coming back last year.
Packers recent playoff history, well, they lost twenty two to
ten last year at the eventual Super Bowl Champs Philadelphia
on the wild card round, so they lost on the
road in the opener. Last year twenty twenty three, they
won at Dallas, lost at San Franz the divisional round.
All road games over the last two years, it's like
this one. Twenty twenty two didn't make the playoffs. Twenty
twenty one, they lost at home Aaron Rodgers at QB
to San Francisco thirteen to ten in that game. So
in recent years we haven't seen a whole lot of
road success from the Packers. We haven't seen a whole
lot of success at all in the postseason from the Packers.
Some of the reasons that la Floor is one of
the coaches who some people thought might be on the
hot seat, though I don't see that at all.
Speaker 2: Hot hot, hot.
Speaker 1: No one seems to be hotter than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Teddy,
this is gonna be an interesting one. I could see
either one of these teams winning the Super Bowl. Frankly,
Jacksonville headed to play Josh Allen and the Bills.
Speaker 3: Yeah. In the AFCA was like, Oh, I like this team.
Oh I like that team. Oh I like that team. Oh.
If I'm picking one team, I'm picking this team. I'm
all over the map in the AFC, I really am,
and these are two teams that are both more than cable.
I'm making a run my powering number Jacksonville minus one.
The markets opened Buffalo minus one and a half fifty
one and a half last night. We're seeing today Buffalo
minus split line. There's ones in one and a half
out there with the Bills, but their favorite just about
everywhere total fifty one and a half. So the total
hasn't done anything. The side hasn't done anything. My number
is giving Jacksonville more credit than the betting markets, and
again from minus one to plus one when I talk
about these huge moves, when I talk about me even
be way off the market numbers for these two teams.
But I think I had the Jags slightly above the
market number in Buffalo, slightly below in my power rating
for Jacksonville. You know, we talk about the bad huh.
They couldn't run the football against Tennessee. The running game
has not been consistent. The number twenty seven in yards
per rush the good for the Jaggs pretty much everything else.
You know, the plus thirteen and turnover number three in
the NFL. They didn't turn the ball over at all
down the stretch, the only playoff appearance since Blake Bortles
led them to the AFC Championship Game at New England
in twenty seventeen. They covered the spread in that game,
by the way, was in twenty twenty two. That was
the Chargers at home in the wildcard round. If you
bet that game, you'll never forget it. Chargers led twenty
seven nothing and the Jags came back to win thirty
one to thirty. Trevor Lawrence was going to be a
big star. He was getting subway commercials the whole Enchilada.
And then they lost that inchel arrawhead to the Chiefs
the following week and haven't made the playoffs since. So
so much for Trevor Lawrence being a huge start. He
gets another opportunity here. They topped a dozen wins just
the second time in the franchise's thirty one year history.
You know, Liam Cohen, first year, first time head coach, quote,
today's the biggest game in franchise history because it's the
next one. That's it, because it's the next one. That's
been the mindset and mentality of this group. They've stayed
even keeled. There's confidence this team has confidence, but not
overlooking anyone. They know whoever comes here has to play
us the tight end. Brenton Strange talking about Trevor Lawrence
and if Trevor Lawrence can be the next Josh Allen quote,
He's a special dude. He's done it over his career.
He's doing it at a super high level right now.
He's a great leader for our team, comes out, sets
the tone for us every game. Trevor's being Trevor. Trevor
is special. So there's certainly a case we made here
for Jacksonville, who is the hottest team in the league
right now. That's for Buffalo. Is the seventh straight year
they've been in the playoffs. Sean McDermott. Haters need to
remember where this franchise was when he got here, which
was bottom feeders. And they've won at least one game
every year twenty twenty, twenty one, twenty two, twenty three,
twenty four. Each of the last five playoffs they've won
a playoff game at least won. They lost twice to
Casey and the conference championship game. They did lose twice
at home in twenty two to twenty three, but they've
won at least one game every season. Last year, they
blew out the Broncos, beat the Ravens, and lost an
overtime at Case, just short of the Super Bowl. They're
coming off a game in which they rested pretty much
everyone still dominated the Jets. Not hard to do. Josh
Allen's got a sore right foot, all right, James Cook,
the NFL's leading rusher, he's banged up. The kicker may
be a concern here. Matt Prater aggregated aggravated a quad
injury in the first half. You don't want a kicker
injury in a pickham priced game in the postseason. You
really don't. And it's worth noting. Even though the Bills
have won at least one win every year, they've never
won a road playoff game under Sew McDermott, oh and five.
The last time the Bills won a road playoff game
nineteen ninety two in Miami. It's been a while.
Speaker 1: It has been a while, Teddy covers and I got
questions in the comments section. We're gonna get to here
in just a little bit. Let's get through some more
of these games. We've got the forty nine ers, yes.
Speaker 2: My team to win it all.
Speaker 1: And boy do they not look like the team that
can even quite possibly win it all.
Speaker 2: But the good news is.
Speaker 1: Neither do the Philadelphia Eagles. Shout out to Dan Alexander.
All of his team was rested yesterday and they had
multiple opportunities to win that game, but it just looked
like they didn't care.
Speaker 2: Teddy. When you have teams like that going into Week eighteen.
Speaker 1: Before they go into the playoffs, there's a rust versus
rest factor, which we know games that matter versus don't matter,
but kind of get into that. I saw some of
the stuff in your notes to start the show talk
about how these must win teams, teams that don't matter
now go into the playoffs.
Speaker 3: They go in looking to win at the playoff game.
Speaker 1: No, I mean like, sorry, let me elaborate a little
bit more. Right, So, this is an Eagles team midweek
they say never mind, we're gonna rest everybody.
Speaker 2: Don't win the game.
Speaker 1: Now they're headed into the playoffs. Do those does it
just not matter? Week eighteen is like, hey, now we're
going to rest our injuries. Now we're healthy. Versus a
Niners team that did not do that.
Speaker 3: I think it matters. I think it's advantaged Philadelphia in
that regard, and again, where teams get into trouble in
the postseason. You hey, you clinched the first round. You
clinch the first round by you clinch the number one seed,
your rest starters. Week eighteen, you have a week off,
and that was three weeks since you played, you know,
and that's too much. And that's why teams that are
clinched to buy a lot of times they'll play guys
in week eighteen, Philadelphia can clinch of buy. And Philadelphia
didn't care about seating. They don't care about seating. They
care about making the playoffs or getting a week off.
Philly got their week off this past week. My powering
number has this Eagles minus six. The markets opened Eagles
minus three and a half is the biggest differential in
any game that I had, So I have a two
and a half point difference here in favor of Philadelphia.
Total forty six and a half. Last night, we are
seeing some under money here forty five and a half
in some locations. And in fact, if there's one emergency
betting on the ert on today show, let's do it
right here, right now. Cal what do you say if
you like Deyonder, bet it now? Forty six. I'm seeing
as low as forty fives on the otological live on screen,
and again there's nothing. It's not crazy. Oh my god,
this line's going to steam down to forty two if
the weather's bad. It could, but I don't anticipate we're
going to see a whole lot of over money for
this one, not based on a what we saw from
Sampcisco last week and b what we seen for Philadelphia
offensively pretty much over the course of the last two months.
But my number says Philly six. And if you watch
the forty nine er Seahowks game, you already know you know,
I mean, the offensive line got absolutely destroyed and they
can't win a playoff game in Philadelphia. The offsive line
plays like that. Again, one of the reasons we like
to watch games and not just look at box scores.
If you look at Brock Purty's box score numbers, they
look like he sucked, you know, nineteen to twenty seven
for one hundred and twenty seven yards, no touchdowns, one big,
three sacks, twenty seven pass demps. You know for Buck
twenty seven, that's not good. If you watch the game,
you know how good Brock Purty was rock Purty was
outstanding in that ball game, you know, but the offsitive
line literally gave him zero time on any plays. So
he was constantly under pressure and trying to do stuff
on the run on the fly, and I thought he
did really well. The forty nine ers dems, I thought
they really missed Fred Warner. This was the game where
they missed Fred war You know, Seattle's running backs thirty
for a Bucks seventy one on the ground, You're not
gonna win playoff games. Werena give them up five yards
of carry where their veteran leaders making plays. Nope, Christian
McCaffrey cost him any chance to win when he boffed
that pass office hands at the Seahawks three yard line
for an interception. You know quote, it's a play I
have to make, absolutely have to make. I expect nothing
less to make that play. It's completely on me. Minus
six turnover differential. That's the worst of any playoff team
among defenses on postseason teams, forty nine Ers one of
the three worst to the points allowed per game, expected
points allowed per game, yards per play allowed, takeaways all
over the last five weeks of the season. Least productive
pass rush in the league this season. Haven't shown any
signs of improvement down the stretch. Oh. By the way,
de Winters, linebacker linebacker Tatum Bethune both got hurt that
could sideline them this week. Injuries worth noting. We've got
to have to see if Trent Williams plays the OFFSI
of line. His absence was a normal Ricky Piersoll's absence
was enormous. The wide receiver Shanahan quote, we're ready for it.
It would have been nice to have a home game here,
or both home games and get a buye. But it
is what it is. This team's been through a lot
this year, and now we got to do it the
hard way. I don't love that quote. I don't want
to talk about how the team's been through a lot
this year. San Francisco playoff history twenty twenty one, they
won two road games, I lost the NFC champions Game
at the Rams. Twenty twenty two, they won two home games,
then lost the NFC Championship game at Philly. Twenty twenty three,
won two home games, lost Super Bowl to KC. Last year,
did not make the playoffs, but obviously the last three
times they've been in the postingson they've won at least
two games. I'm not sure this year's team is gonna
win two games four. Last year they won three home games,
they won the Super Bowl twenty three, they lost a
wildcard round at Tampa. Twenty two, they won two home
games and lost Super Bowl to KC. Twenty one, they
lost a wildcard round at Tampa. So as long as
not playing at Tampa, they should be fine. Fangio's defense
elite numbers and this absolutely carried them to a title
last year. The offense has been hit or miss. You know,
last time we saw the starters, they didn't give play
a pass after halftime and they still won at Buffalo,
which speaks volumes about what this defense is Capeler doing.
Fangio has that defense playing at a very high level
right now. That could be a problem if San Franz
offs the line once again.
Speaker 2: Isn't healthy fraud alert?
Speaker 1: Well, we're gonna ask Teddy if he thinks they are frauds.
The New England Patriots taking on the Los Angeles Chargers. Teddy,
I don't know what to make of this Patriots team. Honestly,
like I there's been there are three teams. I said
were frauds start year, the Chicago Bears, my Denver Broncos,
who are now the number one seed, and the New
England Patriots. All three of these teams, I will say
though New England has beaten one team with a winning record.
After the Ravens loss last night, they no longer had
a winning record.
Speaker 2: What do you make of that? Why is this Patriots
seem a little fraudulent? Or have I just been dead
wrong all year long?
Speaker 3: So my parag norm for this game is two. So
the markets are at three and a half for what
it's worth. I'm seeing four is out there, and I
actually wrote a two and a quarter, so you can
make a case for two and a half for New
England here. But my numbers on the other side of
three compared to where the betting markets are, and we
are seeing there's a first four has popped for New
England depending what the weather forecast looks here, I'm not
I don't think this line's coming down. So do we do?
We say emergency Betyler lock in at three and a
half now with a four popping up, you know, I
mean there's there's three with juice and some leading indicator
shops let's do it. Let's do one more met them
now a minus three and a half. It's not going
to three. You know, it can only go up. It's
not gonna hurt you. A lock in at three and
a half right now, I'm not convinced it's gonna go
to the moon, but I'm fairly convinced we're not going
to see the frees in this game for the Chargers.
And again my numbers two and a quarter, two and
a half. So it's I'm giving you an emergency betting
alert for a line that I think is too high
to begin with. But let's recognize what the markets are saying.
The markets are saying. You know, the Chargers use twenty
nine different offensive lock in combinations this year. That's third
most in the league. They ranked dead last, and past
block win rate second to last, and run block win
but run block win rate. You know, Herbert took up
beating this year. You know they did. I mean, the
defensive depth is there. They were sitting starters and they
held the Broncos two hundred and forty yarders yesterday, all three
in the red zone for Denver. Herbert's rested this week.
You know, twenty four no no playoff history success in
recent years. Twenty four they lost in the wildcard round
at Houston, twenty two they do that twenty seven to
nothing lead at Jacksonville and the wildcard round. Their last
playoff win came in twenty eighteen the Wildcard round at Baltimore.
They lost that New Wing in the next week. Since
the two thousand and seven trip to face New England
the AFC Championship Game, where they lost three playoff wins
in the last you know, nineteen years, and the only
Super Bowl appearance came in nineteen ninety four. They were
the biggest underdogs in the history of the Super Bowl,
bigger than Jets, Colts, and of course they didn't cover.
Look it up if you don't believe me. Bottom line,
Chargers not a team. I'm expecting to get a boatload
of betting market support this week. Now we all know
the Patriots playoff history. You know, their last appearance was
twenty twenty one. They lost that Buffalo in the wildcard round.
Their last playoff win for New England was the twenty
eighteen Super Bowl, that thirteen to three win over the
Rams with Jared Goff. But obviously the Patriots have an
extraordinary amount of playoff success this century. Yesterday they had
twelve rushing first downs better than eight yards per play.
Drake May's Live to Win the MVP didn't have any turnovers.
But I have my concerns about New England's defense right now.
They've been called it. They've been gashed on the ground
from weeks ten on opponent's average four point seven yards
per carry, one hundred and thirty one rushing yards per game.
And you talked about it wins against playoff teams this year. Well,
let's see, they beat the Bills by a field goal
in Week five and oh that's it. You know. The
only two other games against playoff teams they lost to
Pittsburgh at home and lost the Buffalo at home, and
that twenty one zing lead against the Bills in that
ball game. So it's not like we can call New
England battle tested in the way that I think the
Chargers are.
Speaker 1: Teddy Covers is battle tested. Let everybody know what you
like to do for the NFL playoffs in terms of
finding edges, using your power ratings, trying to really hone in.
Speaker 2: You mentioned there's not a lot of games left, right
How selective are you?
Speaker 1: And kind of let anybody know if they want to
jump on board with you through the Super Bowl, what
they need to do.
Speaker 3: Oh, I'm going to be an action this week. You know,
there's a if you hear me talking now, you can
probably get a sense of some of the teams I'm
looking at, and I would expect by midweek will be
locked and loaded. I made me able to have something
up for five dollars Tuesday. Tomorrow, we'll see. I'm going
to try to get some NFL posted early this week.
And of course you guys got to check out those
five dollar Tuesday plays at wagertalk dot com. Every cap
or with plays available for just five bucks, so especially
for newbies' a great chance to get on board and
try out wager Talk four the first time. When it
comes to the postseason, obviously will be in action this week,
will be in action, and how many player I don't know.
I don't know how many players are gonna have cal
I know there's a handful of games that stand out
to me this week. We'll see what the lines do
for next week. Certainly when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday,
I put on a proper port Teddy's legendary proper report.
It's not legendary. I just talked to a lot of
guys here in Vegas. One of the advantage of living
in this town for thirty years is that you get
to know everyone and you get the sense of I
do a lot of talking with some of the guys
who I really respect the week when the props come out,
and I put together a pretty significant report usually eight, ten,
twelve proper recommendations plus side total for the big game.
But you know, football's good down the stretch seventy one
percent over the last five weeks, last nine Sundays seventy percent.
So we're making some money. We've had some real good
postseasons in recent years as well. So visit the whole page,
ww Buzz, backslash, TC oversit the website, Waytalk dot com
to get on board.
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep it going. Here's an interesting uh.
Speaker 1: I don't know what to make some of these teams, Teddy,
I really really don't. The Houston Texans. I keep thinking
they're good and then they just let me down. Versus
subpar teams like the Raiders yesterday. Woo boy, was that
an interesting one. Versus the Colts and then the Steelers
last night. Did the Steelers win that game, Teddy? Or
did the Ravens lose it? How did you view that game?
I watched start to finish.
Speaker 2: I'd be over. I don't know how I got to
cash that.
Speaker 1: That looked dead on arrival at halftime, but it was
exciting second half.
Speaker 2: I will say this, Aaron Rodgers at times looks forty two.
And then he went off on a run and I thought, hey,
Aaron's not as slow as I thought he was.
Speaker 1: But ultimately I thought the Ravens were the better team
on the field. Just continued to beat themselves like we've
seen them do all season.
Speaker 3: Long, Shrue and and in many previous postseasons. You know,
I mean Baltimore. Since since the lights went out game
in the Super Bowl, Baltimore has had an extra I mean,
we can call it bad luck. They found a way
to beat themselves. So Pittsburgh won. I mean Pittsburgh raby
from behind multiple times in the fourth quarter. We got
even credit for that, but Pittsburgh's defense blew the league
and gave up what should have been the game winning
forty four yard field goal attempts. So we'll call it.
Did Pittsburgh win it or Baltimore lose it. A little
bit from Colum A, a little bit from Column B.
My powering number, Houston minus two and a half. The
markets opened three slash three and a half. I'm seeing
three and a half and three's out there now. I'm
not sure or where it's gonna land. If it's gonna
land Houston three and a half for Pittsburgh. If you
want Pittsburgh plus three and a half or Houston minus three,
it wouldn't be a disaster to lock in now on
either side. I really don't have a sense of which
way the markets are gonna move on this game. I
know there's not much support out there for Pittsburgh, but
I'm confident that there's only public love for Aaron Rodgers
and some disrespect for Houston being asked to win by
margin in the cold on Monday night. So where's this
line gonna go? I don't know. Three with three and
a half. Maybe maybe the smart thing to do is
grab the three and a half if you like the
Steelers now, but I really I don't have I can
emergency betting alerts. I'm not convinced I know which way
this line's gonna move, And of course you talked about
the end of that game. The pitchy pitchy woo wu
on the final play got the Houston another defensive touchdown.
It still doesn't cover nine and a half Texans plus
seventeen turnover margin. That's number two in the NFL. Sometimes
we think the turnover margin teams are little bit fraudulent,
so used to no worse. Note to Houston plus seventeen.
Recent playoff history twenty four, they beat the Chargers in
the wildcard round, lost that KC Division round. Twenty three,
blew out Cleveland the wildcard round, lost that Baltimore Division round.
So they've won a playoff game each of the last
two years in comfortable fashion on this field. You know CJ.
Stroud to make O'Ryan's three years three playoffs that won
at least one game the first two tries defense elite
top ten versus the rush, top three versus the pass.
They go in to the playoffs on a nine game
winning streak. Davis Mills saved their season. Either what Carson
Wentz couldn't do in Minnesota or Joe Flaccow in Cincinnati
or Philip Rivers in Andy. He kept the team winning
when the starting quarterback went down, and of course Houston,
you know, talk about confidence level. They're only the fifteen
since nineteen ninety to open the season oh and three
and reached the playoffs. I didn't love either one of
these quotes. I'll be honest. Here's to meet Goryan's talking
about the team in the past tense quote. Our guys
were able to accomplish a lot of great things, no
matter how dim it looked. I'm proud of our guys
for continuing to battle every single week and finding ways
to win games. Now we finish on a high note
to win against a really good team. I don't love
that tense wise. It's one of the mental things, and
maybe I'm overreacting to it. Derek Stingley, the defense at
Black the defensive back quote, we treated every game like
it was a playoff game. So that's how we went
on our streak winning all these games down the stretch.
That concerns me. I want a team that can dial
it up a notch right now. Houston saying that. He's saying, oh,
we played at the max level this whole time, so
whatever that's worth. I don't know if that's bet against
for Houston. I do know that the markets aren't undervaluing
the Texans in this point spread range. As for Pittsburgh,
I mean you talked about it. The defense failed to
hold the league twice in the fourth quarter as Rodgers
drove them down the field for the lead, and they
had a missed forty four yard field goal and not
a fifty four yard or a sixty four yard It
was a forty four yarder. That's the playoffs, so obviously lucky.
Recent playoff history for Pittsburgh that made the playoffs in
twenty seventeen, in twenty twenty, in twenty twenty one, in
twenty twenty three, in twenty twenty four one and done
every single time, lost in the wildcard round every single time.
All four losses since twenty twenty have come by double
digit margins. Non competitive in defeat for Mike Tomlins squad.
Aaron Rodgers last playoff game he lost at San Francis
Go to Home thirteen to ten in twenty twenty one.
It's been a while for him, you know, since the
Super Bowl win in twenty eleven. For Aaron Rodgers seven
playoff wins, nine playoff losses, he won more than one
playoff game and the season only one twenty eighteen, when
they lost the NFT Championship game to Atlanta. He also
reached the chompis champion team in twenty twenty one, with
Green Bay lost to the Bucks in that one. But
Pittsburgh certainly a team that the betting markets do not
respect right now, and that's clearly indicated by Houston laying
more than a field goal here.
Speaker 1: All right, Teddy, we've got let's call like ten ish
minutes to go over some other stuff. Do you want
to take some questions from the chat? Do you want
to go into strength of schedule?
Speaker 2: Or I got first and then perfect, Let's.
Speaker 1: Do that first, because I think this is one of
the more important things from a power ratings perspective.
Speaker 2: How much do you measure strength of schedule?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: So when you put in your weights, is strength of
schedule going into the playoffs pretty heavy?
Speaker 3: Yes? For the wildcard round? It's a as big a
factor as there is, all right, in my and in
this and in my opinion, okay, there's always that, and
and certainly when you look at the mainstream strength of
schedule numbers, I have huge differences between the mainstream numbers.
This is how I do my strength of schedule. I
go through every team every week and look at the
my powering number for their opponent on the game the
week was played. Did you play Indie when they were
good or did you play Indy when they were bad?
At the end of the season the markets don't you know,
the Cults have a record and you're not gonna get
any differential. Did you get Indy when they had Daniel
Jones behind QB or not. Did you get Jacksonville early
season when they struggled, or Jacksonville they were on a
roll late. Did you get Houston earlier season when they
struggled or Houston when they were on a roll late.
Did you get green Bay when Jordan Love was healthy
or green Bay with Jordan Love wasn't And on and
on down the line. What you get from the mainstream
numbers is none of that nuance. What you get from
my numbers is all that nuance. My powering numbers, strength
of schedule numbers. All right, I'm gonna go through the
fourteen playoff teams from toughest to weakest, and there's a
bunch in the middle. There's one that stands out as
by far the toughest schedule of any playoff team, and
that's the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are battle tested. Based
on my Powering numbers on the week the game was played,
Billy's average opponent was nearly a point better than any
other team in the playoff field. That's significant. Philly's battle tested.
After Philly, we got Green Bay, the Chargers, the Bills,
the Steelers, the Panthers, the Texans, the Rams, the Bears,
all kind of grouped really tight together. We'll call them
middle of the pack. Strength to schedule. Eagles toughest all
those teams. Middle of the pack. We've got five teams
with a notably weak strength of schedule, including the weakest
of them all, which is New England. New England straight schedule. Again,
I've been doing this for a long time. New England
strength schedule, I believe, is the weakest that I've ever
seen for any team ever. They played bottom feeders all
year long. They're they're they're nearly a point worse than
the next team, you know, a point weaker for opponent
than the next team. I got Denver, San fran Jacksonville, Seattle,
all as weak opposition this year did not step up
in class. So Seattle Jacksonville, sand France, Denver, all week,
New England really really really weak, Philly really really really strong,
everyone else the middle of a pack.
Speaker 2: How many points.
Speaker 3: Are my strength of seddle numbers? Now you look at
the Sagara numbers. The Sagard numbers are silly, you know.
Sagard numbers have the Rams as the one of the
toughest schedules, the Texans is one of the toughest schedules,
the forty nine ers as one of the toughest schedules.
Those are these are mainstream numbers.
Speaker 1: Way how many points different from strength of schedule wise?
Speaker 2: Or how many? How many?
Speaker 1: How much do you weigh the difference between the Eagles
and the Patriots off Eagles are number one.
Speaker 3: Patriots almost a field goal difference per game per game,
that's eighteen weeks seas oh no, yeah, so seventeen weeks
at seventeen games, Yeah, just shy of a field goal
per game?
Speaker 2: Holy cow, Okay, that's a huge difference.
Speaker 3: Yes, it is over the course of the season, It
really is. The Sagard numbers are nonsense, They're silly. When
I look at the difference, So what why I was
doing is right down the weeks one through seventeen. I
check it on like Friday, and then I check it
again on Monday and see how much the week eighteen
numbers influenced. And like, you know, the week eighteen numbers
he had. You know, green Bay have got easier because
they faced faced the tougher schedule. They face Minnesota yesterday significantly.
You know, Phillies went down by five places they faced
Washington yesterday. It's silliness. You know, Seattle's went up eight
because they faced San Fran eight against that against that
Niners team. You know, in the final week of the scene,
looking at the whole the full season numbers, ranking all
thirty two teams, Seattle dropped eight spots or went up
eight spots from the one game against San Fran with
when trand friend of net Trump Williams, there's the mainstream
numbers for strength to schedule are garbage, Rip them up,
throw them out. I think my numbers are meaningful. But
that's why you watch the show.
Speaker 2: That is why you watch the show. I love it.
This is this is really great.
Speaker 1: I think we knew the Patriots had the week of schedule,
but I was very shocked to see the day that
the games were played, So guys, these are Teddies strengths.
So the Eagle face a team X, I don't have
my schedule in front of me when that team was
at their healthiest best, and so forth versus the Patriots
kind of getting the advantage of playing a team when
maybe they were at their lowest or not as good
as they should have been, Like the Ravens.
Speaker 3: The Patriots spent the whole season beating up on the Browns,
you know, or the more equivalent of the Jets and
the Browns, and the Eagles spent the whole season playing
you know, other playoff teams.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, chanting up, let's go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just gonna say, I'm gonna go through the
questions here just in a minute. Anything else you would
like to add before we get into a college football
playoff question. I wasn't gonna answer that, but Dan already
put on the screen, so we got to answer for
this guy. He wants to know he has in Miami
one hundred to one to win the national championship ticket,
what do you recommend I do to Hedge? And since
this is still a gambling show, Teddy, I gotta let
you give this guy a little bit of bit of
information and as I go through to try to find
some fell questions.
Speaker 3: It's an optimal So if you have a Miami one
hundred and one, you're an optimal spot right now cause
you take old Miss at a plus price, so you
don't even have to risk a whole lot. You know,
you take old Miss on the money line here, and
you know, and you don't have to do it for
a lot. Again, depending on how much you want to
risk moving forward versus how much you want to make
sure you lock in some profit determines your unit size there.
But for this week, it's very easy. You take ole
Miss on the money line and in theory you hope
it loses, you know, but the key is you don't
have to lay a price. You're not laying two to one.
You're getting a plus price on Old Miss money line.
Very good point, so you know you're not you're not laying.
Speaker 2: You wouldn't take Ole.
Speaker 1: Miss plus the points like for example, yesterday I should
have hedged my survivor right, I should have taken five four,
three and a half with the Raiders and tried to
middle that game could have went either way down the stretch.
But would you not recommend old miss plus the points.
You think ole miss on the money line is a
better strategy, So.
Speaker 3: That's the way to hedge. It is ole miss on
the honeylone because you're risking less to win more, you know,
and you're Dad. I mean, you can play for the
middle and take the plus points, but the way I
would do it would be a moneyline bed. I'm not
trying to win. I'm not trying to middle. I'm trying
to cash one hundred to one and make sure I
make something in one hundred and one doesn't cash.
Speaker 2: Got it?
Speaker 1: Great advice from Teddy covers. I see no questions in
the comment section. Lots of comments, no questions. So if
you guys have a question, I'm going to give you
about thirty more seconds. Teddy, let everybody know what you
got going on wager talk dot com and.
Speaker 2: We'll get in here.
Speaker 1: David again, Teddy, do you feel the Rams can cover
that big number after they lost to them? Very good point.
The Rams did go into Carolina this year. It is
very tough to beat a team twice. But do you
think the Panthers have it in them?
Speaker 2: Again?
Speaker 3: So I watched the first game between these two teams.
I talked about it in the analysis. We broke down
the Carolina of the Ram and the Caroline versus the Rams.
Carolina was extraordinary lucky to win that game, all right.
They went three or three on fourth downs and they
were plus three in turnovers against Matt Stafford had a
bad game. After the game, all the Stafford's quotes where
I stunk today, I got to be better, et cetera,
et cetera. In the playoffs, we expect the good teams
to step up. I had my fun with Carolina in
Tampa yesterday, and certainly the fact that the Panthers beat
the Rams the first time, and sure as we're going
to get to Eli being interested, So the price isn't right.
You know, I'm not excited about l Layana doubles here,
but this is not you know, I'm not expecting that
they'll end up on the dog in this one. I'm
it's not a game I'm likely to play, Teddy.
Speaker 2: I know that Super Bowl futures don't.
Speaker 1: Hold a lot of plus EV, but I am going
to put you on the spot here.
Speaker 2: They want to know who is your Super Bowl champion.
Speaker 3: So it's really funny because yesterday doing the end Zone live.
We all had to just pick pick some team and
it didn't matter what the price. And I'm like, I'm
gonna go with the Chargers, you know. I'm like, no,
I'm like, exactly, some team. No one's talking about. John.
I'm like, and I think I think Herbaugh Herbert is
a super Bowl caliber QB, and I think they have
a super Bowl caliber defense. And no one was talking
about the Chargers. So I think the Charger are live.
And then I looked at the Texans. I'm like, man,
the Texans are live. I look at the Jaguars, I'm like, man,
the Jaguars are alive.
Speaker 1: You know you did mention that you're you're kind of
obsessed with the AFC right now.
Speaker 3: If there was one team, and actually, I'm not thinking,
I think this might be a different conversation. I'm flipping.
If there's one team that if I'm betting one team
right now, it's Philadelphia. They're the defending champs, they've been there,
the strength of schedule is there. We know how good
the defense is, and someone's gonna have to go in
there and beat them. And like, they can't go off
to Seattle and win. They can't and we'll see how
many playoff wins the Seahawks have this year. Eagles, that's
the one that I would pick. But all right, it's
not again. Is Philly that much liber than anyone else?
Speaker 2: No, okay, at this point in time. That's the unfortunate part.
But I would agree with you.
Speaker 1: Out of the NFC, I think Philadelphia looks, as you
mentioned earlier, the most battle tested. Okay, the AFC, you
said it. I think it's wide open. I really do.
But out of the two AFC teams that we said
are maybe fraudulent, we're gonna get rid of the We're
gonna get rid of the Patriots. And for my little
Broncos fandom heart that there's not much of it left
but just a little bit of me and got a.
Speaker 2: Little oh cool.
Speaker 1: They're the number one overall seed. Should I go ahead
and hamper those expectations?
Speaker 2: Now, Teddy?
Speaker 3: But I mean so about a month ago we talked
about these two teams, and I'm like, of the two
team of the Patriots versus the Broncos, the Bronco is
the one I believe in, the Patriots the one that
I think is a little bit fraudulent, And I still
stand by that, But what would we be shocked to
see a Broncos Patriots the AFC Championship game? I would
be yeah, I mean I think we'll see. I think
what we talk about, you know, I mean the league
needs to develop new stars, young stars, and you know
when you talk about you know, Drake a bow Nix,
they have that potential.
Speaker 1: Very very good point. So comment section earlier talking about
the NFL rigged. If you believe in the NFL script
writing theory, conspiracy, what have you?
Speaker 2: There? You go, Teddy just gave it to you. Guys.
We need young new stars. Teddy coovers you kill.
Speaker 3: Me out to a young new star. Trevor Lawrence is
a young new star. You know there's plenty of them
out there.
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes old and washed up. That's the new narrative here.
All jokes aside.
Speaker 1: I'm sure Patty Mahomes is going to be back next
season and better than ever. Teddy covers anything you'd like
to leave our audience with before we hand over the
reins to Dan Alexander and Andy Lang for Wager Talk today.
Speaker 3: So we appreciate the comments, guys, We appreciate the likes.
We appreciate the follows. We're approaching what we got two
hundred and forty thousand of you. We're now following us
on wager Talk TV or close to it. If you
haven't done so, follow us and you get install lurched everything.
These videos go live. We got great free content every
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We need front on Christmas. You know, so like comment subscribe,
We appreciate it very much. Check out my HOMEPAGWT dot
buzzbackslash TC and what we got for playoff packages. I'm
sure we got something. Well.
Speaker 2: We always have weekend Order.
Speaker 1: We always have Flexpicks, Teddy, we have this standard uh
packages up on wager talk dot com. I will actually
get in there and say, okay, besides flexpis, besides the
Weekend Warrior, what do we got going on?
Speaker 2: I got nothing right now, nothing Teddy specific.
Speaker 1: Head over to wager talk dot com check out Flexpicks.
If you guys are looking to get a bunch of
different guys for the NFL playoffs. If you guys are
looking for TEDDYWT, Dot Buzz, Backslash TC, I'll jump in
the comments section after I get with the sales team
and say hey, I need a Teddy promo code just
for the opening line report. Thank you, Teddy Covers, you
are the best. We will see you next week for
the next round of the playoffs. Good luck this weekend
everybody again, Thank you guys for watching. Don't forget to
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