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Speaker 1: What is up fellas Eko's I am Dan Favalley coming

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at you with the one, the only, the certified, fantabulous.

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Mister Grant Hughes Hardwood Knox has gathered you all here

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today so that we can talk about why every single

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major NBA contender is not going to win the championship.

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This is actually us just looking at our biggest would

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be concerns for each contender, and then we will decide how,

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like what level of alarm we have for each of them.

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As we go throughout this entire process will alternate the

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order of contenders. We don't know who's gonna pick what first,

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but this will be a fun com We've moved into,

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like firmly into the big picture portion of the regular

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season because so many of the games just don't matter

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at this point. There's still a ton of playoff seating

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happening in the big games that I was really excited

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to watch Burst Pistons the other night, but there's just

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sort of even I know, Rockets War, I saw the

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end ended up being a good game. That was one

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where it's right, no Chris stops, no steph.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but we're just like, what are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Like it wasn't one that I was amped up to watch,

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but now did spotlight some of the concerns that will

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probably have for the Houston Rockets who fall into this exercise.

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But Grant, how are you doing?

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Speaker 3: First and foremost, Well, I also watched Spurs Pistons last

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night as we're recording this the following morning, and like,

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give me that all the time. I just like, I

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think that's my because coming off the their first meeting,

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which was maybe my the game I enjoyed most regular

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season game this season and the one I've kind of

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like spent the most time thinking about. I was so

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this one snuck up on me. I'll admit it. Like

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I didn't realize until yesterday morning that they were going

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to play. I was like, yes, Like that's that's the

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game I want to watch all the time. This was

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a very different version of that than the first game.

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But I just like, to your point, it's so hard

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to find games right now that are like what am

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I Can I learn something from this that like is

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gonna matter for my analysis of the season and champion

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That one didn't that's for sure.

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Speaker 1: And well even that was just the caveat was okay,

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Jalen durn getting into fat would he gave like four

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fouls like very early on, and so that that was

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a big one. But like Asar Thompson going down with

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the eicle injury, then Ron Holland was injured by the

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end of the game. But you saw enough to kind

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of understand the theory of what each team was going

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to try and do. But even there's always those caveats

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at this I guess throughout the year, there's always those caveats.

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Nick's Thunder the other night, though, why was that game

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on that? It was it was equitable because both teams

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were on the second end of a back to back,

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But why was that game on the second end of

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a back to back? That's something in the schedule you'd

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like to out, but I mean rooted out. It's okay,

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the Thunder still just don't have Jalen Williams or aj

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Mitchell and what are we gonna learn from it? But

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how much can we really learn from the thunder? The

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thunder rule?

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Speaker 2: Who knew? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: There was more in those like those are still those

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are like the one tier down from a from a

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Spurs Pistons type of matchup right now, because you might

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learn something about the Knicks.

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Speaker 2: You know they were full strength. I mean potentially.

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Speaker 3: I know your mind is made up about the Knicks,

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so you're not gonna learn anything the rest of us.

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Speaker 1: I have a take, and it doesn't really belong on

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the Knicks or Thunder session. I don't think and I

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say this as a Knicks fan. I don't want to

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see listen to podcasters writers hear the head coach complain

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about the way that fouls are called when Jalen Brunson

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is on your team, just like I don't want to

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hear it from the Thunder because Shay.

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Speaker 2: Is on their team.

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Speaker 1: First of all, if you're gonna complain in that, then,

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like the rest cost us this game, that's my first

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clue that you are, or at least on this particular matter,

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a deeply unseerious person.

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Speaker 2: I won't listen to it.

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Speaker 1: I will I won't.

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Speaker 2: I won't.

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Speaker 1: I'm not the type of person to mock people, and

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if I do, I'll say it to them. But like

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I don't, I don't need to dunk on you. But

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that's my first clue. Like Mike, the rest of Mike

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Brown's press conference, like that little jab at Jell, like

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Shay like he does a really good job convincing refs.

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Dude had seven free throws that game, So I just

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let that stuff is, well, it's a pet peeve of mine.

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Speaker 3: Your first point on that is the the most salient one,

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which is, like you, dude, Jalen Brunson is at least

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as foul baity and grifty as Shay is. So you

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don't get to call out the other teams guy for

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doing similar things in a slightly different way. Oh yeah,

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I'm so with you. I know this is we're already

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on a tangent, but like I.

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Speaker 1: Mean you, I mean, you're talking.

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Speaker 3: About the refs as as the most important factor in anything.

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Speaker 2: I just like, I I guess it's possible that.

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Speaker 3: On some isolated case you're right, but I'm not interested anyway,

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because it's just lazy and it's it's it's conspiratorial and right.

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Speaker 1: And the thing if you're not show me for forty

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seven and a half minutes that everything was step first

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step equal, otherwise to say that this cost you the game,

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like it's just the refs are never going to cost you.

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I'm sure if I guess if you're gonna be on

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the take, But that's another conspiracy theory that we don't

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need to go down the round.

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Speaker 2: I just don't.

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Speaker 1: I can't listen to those arguments. And they're also just

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like even if you debunk them. And there was things

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going around about the one of the calls that people

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were upset about in that nixed Thunder game, specifically about

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no no, no, like this was a foun It's well no,

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but it's the other stuff too. It's like he I

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just I can't. But that's not why we're here. What

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we had we had to narrow down the list of

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teams that we considered contenders. How do you go about

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like what is your Do you have a guiding question

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when you're because if you really think about it long

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enough and you could probably talk yourself into saying, oh,

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there's like fifteen teams that just like I could envision

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the Hornets coming as one example, just coming out of

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the Eastern Conference.

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Speaker 2: It's weird that your head went there first, but best

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team in the league for more than a quarter of

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the season, why wouldn't it. Uh So, yeah, let's frame

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it this way.

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Speaker 3: Originally looking at this, I think based just on where

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sort of the odds off, you could get to like eleven. Uh,

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that was gonna include the Lakers and Sixers. Sorry to

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those fan bases. You're not contenders in the way that

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we're gonna consider that. So I guess there's some subjectivity

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there we could have. You know, you got to make

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the cut off somewhere. To me, I guess i'd say

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you're a contender if without some shocking stroke of luck

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or totally unforeseen set of circumstances you could win it.

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You could win the title this year and we would

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not be blown away. That's a pretty loose standard. I

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think maybe the true contender class should probably be a

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little narrower. But this is still as we'll get into it.

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I think all of the teams will.

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Speaker 2: Discuss here fit into that category, not not.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm trying to think, like I do think

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even like just to say the Sixers or Lakers, to

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use the two sort of like last cuts here, if

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they won tie the title this year, either of them,

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I would need a really deep dive ex you know,

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if you if you time traveled, then it's the middle

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of June and I say, Dan, the Sixers won the title,

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you would have some questions. Whereas if I said Minnesota

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won the title. To use a team that's like firmly

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in here, you'd be yeah, well two conference finals, like, okay,

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that's a pretty good run. Little surprising, but I'm not.

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I'm not blown away here anything to add to that.

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As far as the categories or before. We just sort

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of just like what we're actually the way.

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Speaker 2: That we're going to poke holes in these contenders.

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Speaker 1: I have a hard and fast rule that if you

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make a trade at the deadline that specifically to save

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Josh Harris's money, I won't put you on the list.

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And so the Sixers not making it fits with that rule.

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Speaker 2: Okay, good, well, I'm glad we fit both of our rules.

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Speaker 1: Then, so why don't you pick the first team? We

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will talk about where we're going.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned the Spurs. Let's just start there, because this is,

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you know, maybe the easiest thing to dismiss for me.

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It's too soon, and I don't have a great statistical

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argument against why against them winning the title. I think

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that just to stay on that topic, that second meeting

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against the Pistons was pretty eye opening.

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Speaker 2: Wemby's defense was just it's hard.

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Speaker 3: It's hard unless you're watching a full game of Wembin Yama.

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I think is it gives you so much more of

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a sense of like what he's doing out there defensively

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than seeing the highlight blocks, because just the sheer number

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of instances where the opposing team has what should be

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a close range attempt and they just don't even consider

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taking it and that leads to a kickout or a

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panic move or whatever. His blocks are incredible. This is

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not a new argument like his just his impact on

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the types of shots teams are willing to take. I've

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never seen anything close to it. So and then he's

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just he's learning the Yannis stuff where he's just driving

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and getting fouled, like he fouled Jayalen during out of

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that game effectively by just taking it to the basket.

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Speaker 1: Which side.

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Speaker 2: In the post.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure oldheads loved that one where they were trying

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to get Jaylen during and pet foul trouble.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Right, So here's the stat here, which again I cited

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him last time. His newsletter is the best. Tom Ziller

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was looking at this issue a few weeks ago. Here's

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the salient point. Of the last fifteen NBA champions, only

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one of them won the title without securing at least

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one playoff series win in the previous five years. That

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team was the Bubble Lakers that had Lebron who'd had

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plenty of playoff experience and series wins under his belt

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by that point. So like triple asterisk next to that. Basically,

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you can't win a title if you haven't won at

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least a single playoff series with that core in the

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previous three seasons, if you five seasons.

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Speaker 2: So the Spurs might buck that trend.

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Speaker 3: They it looks so dominant and you can just see

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they have in women Yama the unsolvable thing, like they

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can win different ways. I'm getting into the case for them,

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But does that can we just dismiss that as like

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that's dumb? The Spurs are a different team than any

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of the predecessors you're talking about. Who cares if they've

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got playoff experience, let alone a win.

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Speaker 2: Look how good they are.

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Speaker 1: I assign more value to this for the Spurs than

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I do to people have said it about Detroit to

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where I know that they didn't win a playoff series

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last year, but the Pistons have their playoff scars. To me,

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I don't know that there's a difference between they made

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it to the second round versus they pushed the Knicks

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to the brink in the first round ended up being

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in the conference finals. And it's not just about Webby's

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played in big games before. I would worry more so about, Okay, well,

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what does if you're reliant on Dylan Harper, if you're

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what does Steph Castle look like in a playoff setting?

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But even Steph Castle's concern for me, my biggest concern

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for the Spurs might be, well, Howard defense is going

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to actually treat Stefan Castle in the playoffs rather than

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they need the collective experience to overcome that. I would

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come closer to dismissing it more so than not. But

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you also can't write off the trends of well, this

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might be a special circumstance, but it's it's not Lebron

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on the bubble Lakers. That Lebron has three titles by

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that point already.

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Speaker 3: And I mean, like, I really do think and this

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isn't analytical at all, except there is this stat we

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just laid out, this historical stat. I just really think

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that it's not just that, well, you haven't won a

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playoff series, therefore you can't win a title. It's like

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there's all these other things that you learn about yourself

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in the problem, like that the Pistons kind of learned

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last year to use your example. Even though they didn't

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win that series, they could have won that series. The

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Spurs don't know yet, Like, Okay, we're gonna get into

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deep into a series. Teams are guarding Castle or Harper

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a certain way.

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Speaker 2: What's our solved for that?

248
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Speaker 3: Like they just haven't had to deal with that over

249
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the course of a series. Like what if Champagne and Vissel,

250
00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,799
who basically won the first Spurs Pistons meeting, what if that.

251
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Speaker 2: One of them is cold?

252
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Speaker 3: Like what if one of them gets picked on probably

253
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the cell defensively, Like you just you haven't gathered enough information.

254
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It's not just like there's a rule and you can't

255
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advance farther until you take this baby step. It's like, no,

256
00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,639
the reason that teams don't go from zero to champion

257
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is because the process of kind of diagnosing your flaws

258
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and like finding the right fixes, and honestly, for the

259
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Spurs in particular, just like natural maturation and growth, Like

260
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we really think a second year guy in Castle who

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I love beyond measure and Harper as a rookie are

262
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gonna be playing like I don't know what the third

263
00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,279
and fifth or sixth most important roles on a championship

264
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team that goes through all these players. It's just like

265
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it's too much, too soon. But I would say, tell

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me what you think about this, because I was thinking

267
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about this the other day. If you just kept this

268
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exact roster as it is and like aged it up

269
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three years, so you have Castle in his fifth year

270
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and and Harper and his fourth, or and Champagne and

271
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Vessel haven't totally like this roster as it exists today

272
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right now, just aged up, I think just absolutely as

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a champion, I don't know if they need to add

274
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anything other than experience.

275
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Speaker 1: I feel like you could still I wonder if they

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have enough just complimentary shooting, because if you age it up,

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or we just assuming that Steph Castle and Dylan Harper

278
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are more reliable in those because even they need like.

279
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Speaker 2: A one of them, maybe one of them is.

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Speaker 1: Sure, but even then I would still be they need

281
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kind of another wing or combo forward who does it

282
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how we're because if you're aging them up, Harrison Barnes

283
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is only going to get older. There also, by the way,

284
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everybody be careful when you are taking your naps is all.

285
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Speaker 2: That we have one so when you get that age.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and they have Julian Champagnie obviously, but there's also

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like you look at their roster and it's do we

288
00:13:57,759 --> 00:14:00,960
really need like Luke Cornett valuable for sure Wemby, but

289
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,879
like you have Bismock Biambo and Mason Plumley and Kelly

290
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:04,919
olnek All on this roster.

291
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Speaker 2: We couldn't have done something mean, I believe in the

292
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:10,679
core it's.

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Speaker 1: And even one of the concerns I saw some people

294
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talking about it. I think it was of the what

295
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,879
is it the Jared Dubin and Mo de Quillo podcast,

296
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:20,480
I can't remember the name of it, but they were

297
00:14:20,799 --> 00:14:25,600
wondering whether Wemby's gonna be able to log playoff type

298
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,720
of minutes when he doesn't necessarily log those regularly throughout

299
00:14:28,759 --> 00:14:30,480
the course of the season and then he just goes

300
00:14:30,519 --> 00:14:32,320
and plays. When he played thirty eight minutes against the

301
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:33,000
Pistons the other.

302
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Speaker 3: It was notable, like how much more he was on

303
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,759
the floor than usual, And that's yeah, that's terrifying, I

304
00:14:40,799 --> 00:14:45,799
think too. Can't you imagine maybe it's the first round.

305
00:14:45,799 --> 00:14:50,360
Maybe it's the second where if wembin Yama has a flaw,

306
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:52,759
it's it's at this point in his career, it's still

307
00:14:52,759 --> 00:14:55,799
that Like, I'm not sure the Spurs know the best

308
00:14:55,799 --> 00:14:58,320
way to use him offensively, and I do think a

309
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,840
lot of teams will be able to make things hard

310
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enough for him as a scorer to wear because the

311
00:15:04,039 --> 00:15:06,639
Spurs actually do need him to be a major offensive

312
00:15:06,639 --> 00:15:10,200
threat for them to kind of have a playoff caliber attack.

313
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Speaker 2: Defensively, I think they're gonna be great.

314
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Speaker 3: I don't think there's a solution for them, but I

315
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:18,240
can imagine part of that learning curve being Okay, here's

316
00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,039
what we need to do with weim Binyama in a

317
00:15:20,039 --> 00:15:24,000
playoff series offensively. Here's what teams are gonna try to

318
00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,919
knock him off his game offensively. Now we're ready for

319
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,399
it in year two or three or four of this,

320
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,799
you know, dynastic early dynasty kind of thing.

321
00:15:33,639 --> 00:15:36,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go, let's try and give these an alarm

322
00:15:36,279 --> 00:15:39,039
scale of one to ten. I'll go I'll just say

323
00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,399
medium five because I don't want to in the moment

324
00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:43,679
I'm looking at this team and saying, yeah, two, But

325
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:46,960
I don't. I can't just reject the historical trend. But

326
00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,320
by the way, another Tom Ziller stat from his newsletter,

327
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,600
they have the second best record in the league against

328
00:15:52,639 --> 00:15:55,159
like top three seeds. It's I think the Pistons have

329
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,080
the best record, and then it's the Spurs, and it's

330
00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,480
we could I get you can also make the case

331
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,720
the regulars and isn't the playoffs, which is fair. But

332
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,639
I'll go I'll go five or maybe to some respect

333
00:16:05,679 --> 00:16:07,320
like a four and a half, just to dip my

334
00:16:07,399 --> 00:16:08,399
cap to put this team.

335
00:16:08,519 --> 00:16:10,440
Speaker 3: I don't really know what to do with this because

336
00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:14,159
I I don't think they are going to win it

337
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,440
this year, and I'm more so than literally any other

338
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,120
team on this list. Like that's okay by me because

339
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,840
they're not used to and the st there's no stakes

340
00:16:23,879 --> 00:16:28,720
at all. I would say, I'll just join you at

341
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:30,679
a five because I don't really know what kind of

342
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,519
concern level to put on this team given where it

343
00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,799
is and its growth trajectory.

344
00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 1: Let's go. Let's just go to the team they just

345
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,840
played and also another younger team that's just absolutely dominating

346
00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:47,840
this year. Deep Pistons I worry about. I want to say,

347
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:49,759
their offense but if we want to get a little

348
00:16:49,759 --> 00:16:52,720
bit more granular, I think it's just their ability to

349
00:16:52,879 --> 00:16:57,440
generate easy opportunities in the half court. And you look

350
00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,279
at all the players they have, there's just not a

351
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,519
solve on the roster. I really like Jenkins, Tobias Harris

352
00:17:03,519 --> 00:17:04,799
has had some big moments for them.

353
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,200
Speaker 2: Duncan Robinson is entirely way too important to this team.

354
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,720
Speaker 1: And I mean that has a compliment to Duncan Robinson

355
00:17:10,759 --> 00:17:13,759
for the way he opens up the floor. Non kid

356
00:17:13,799 --> 00:17:17,160
players on the Pistons are in the eighth percent tile

357
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:21,440
of three point shot making. That's per b Ball Index.

358
00:17:21,519 --> 00:17:23,319
You look at the quality of looks that they're getting

359
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,119
in the half court, their rim rate declines a ton

360
00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,160
when kid cunning him isn't on the floor. Looking at

361
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,880
what kid has to do specifically, I'm not sure that

362
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,119
he's had a high quality shot all season. These numbers,

363
00:17:36,279 --> 00:17:39,359
even when you watch the Pistons, you feel it. But Grant,

364
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,880
these numbers are insane. He is in the second percent

365
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,480
tile of shot quality at the rim, the thirtieth percent

366
00:17:45,559 --> 00:17:49,359
tile of paint shot quality, the twenty second percent tile

367
00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,920
in overall mid range shot quality, and the eleventh percent tile

368
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:57,119
in three point shot quality. Now, let's isolate the rim

369
00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,480
and three point looks. There's only one other player who

370
00:18:00,559 --> 00:18:03,720
has a worse collective shot quality in those two areas,

371
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:05,640
or as bad of a shot quality in those two

372
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:09,880
areas as Kid Cunningham. It is your MVP pick LaMelo Ball.

373
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,559
That is, this is just things are never gonna geither way.

374
00:18:13,759 --> 00:18:14,799
Speaker 2: LaMelo Ball is terrible.

375
00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:18,240
Speaker 3: Shot quality is entirely self created because he just takes

376
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,680
the one footed threes against two guys because he likes him.

377
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 1: Yes, but also until recently, and especially when you look

378
00:18:26,279 --> 00:18:28,559
at the basket, it's just like the attention that he's

379
00:18:28,599 --> 00:18:31,519
gonna command. But yeah, you're right, he's I wonder there

380
00:18:31,519 --> 00:18:36,279
should be a self inflicted shot quality metric in Kaid's case,

381
00:18:36,319 --> 00:18:39,319
though it is not even close to self inflicted.

382
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,440
Speaker 2: It's a symptom of the rest of the roster.

383
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,039
Speaker 1: And so I find myself wondering they're not gonna play

384
00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:48,319
Ron Holland, Asar Thompson and Kate and Jalen Durham together

385
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:50,920
a ton, and when they have their offensive ratings actually

386
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,880
through the roof this year, but their league average and

387
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:57,599
first chance offense, I do sort of wonder if a

388
00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:01,880
team decides to really sell out on Jalen Duran coming

389
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,720
out of a screen, what is like Detroit's second best

390
00:19:05,799 --> 00:19:08,759
offensive option, Like if Kate doesn't and even for Kid,

391
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,079
if he can't get the ball to Jalen Duran, what

392
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:16,160
is his second best option? So it's just or a

393
00:19:16,279 --> 00:19:18,400
third best because the first best is probably just Kid

394
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,480
taking a shot himself. I their defense is incredible. You

395
00:19:22,599 --> 00:19:25,279
just can't get to the rim against against them. If

396
00:19:25,279 --> 00:19:27,960
everyone's going to be healthy, they do a good job

397
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,880
of they're gonna get out and be opportunistic in transition.

398
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,079
But I look at this team, especially if you're not

399
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,200
even gonna get the type of rim finishing you want

400
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,359
from a Star Thompson or free throw volume ors just

401
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,799
like other guys who can come in and draw a

402
00:19:40,839 --> 00:19:44,440
ton of fouls off rip in the half court. I

403
00:19:44,519 --> 00:19:46,119
just don't know what this offense is gonna look like

404
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:47,440
in the playoffs. I think it's going to be a

405
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,480
slog I think they're built to win anyway. I still

406
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,279
would have liked to have seen them done more at

407
00:19:53,279 --> 00:19:56,039
the trade deadline other than get Kevin Hurder who hasn't

408
00:19:56,039 --> 00:19:59,480
played a ton to address it, and the other counter

409
00:19:59,559 --> 00:20:02,680
they could do, And I just don't know. I don't

410
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:03,839
know if you think they could get away with this

411
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,759
a ton in the playoffs. Is their offensive rating is

412
00:20:06,799 --> 00:20:09,599
in fact through the roof when it's Duncan, Robinson, Jenkins

413
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:13,079
and Caid on the court. I just don't know how

414
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,599
many minutes of that can you carve out in postseason settings.

415
00:20:16,799 --> 00:20:18,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I had a couple thoughts.

416
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 3: Again, we'll stop talking about Spurs Pistons, but like it

417
00:20:23,279 --> 00:20:26,240
happened last night, so it's top of mind that when

418
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,160
the Pistons really needed a bucket, which was most of

419
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,599
the game, really the best they could do consistently was

420
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,599
a Kid Cunningham self created two point jumper off the

421
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,880
dribble where he creates space and has to shoot a

422
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:41,640
contested seventeen footer, which, like, those are exactly like that's

423
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:43,759
the best they can do sometimes, and this is a

424
00:20:43,799 --> 00:20:46,680
Spurs defense, that's impossible, so file out in there too,

425
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,039
But those are the exact type of shots that if

426
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,359
kid wants to shoot twenty of those in a game,

427
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,400
every playoff defense will just be ecstatic because even that's

428
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,720
like just a super low expected value shot.

429
00:20:57,759 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 2: The other thought I had while watching Kevin Herder come

430
00:21:00,759 --> 00:21:03,920
in the game was what a half measure at Oh

431
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,359
well that too. It's just what was the thinking.

432
00:21:08,039 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 3: That Kevin Herder Not to pick on him, but a

433
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,079
player of that type like fringe rotation guy on most

434
00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:18,079
good teams who can be an offensive plus, was the

435
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,640
thinking that he's enough to alleviate the cramp spacing and

436
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,400
the shot creation issues like that, Because if it was

437
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,960
come on like, that's what's small time thinking? I really,

438
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,000
if you wanted to make the case for why this

439
00:21:30,039 --> 00:21:32,119
team needed to trade for Michael Porter Junior, you saw

440
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,319
it against the Spurs because there just wasn't another real

441
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,079
threat out there. And I had that thought when specifically

442
00:21:38,319 --> 00:21:41,519
there were minutes with Jenkins and Kid and Karris Lavert,

443
00:21:41,599 --> 00:21:43,680
who in theory or at least long ago, was viewed

444
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,680
as someone that could kind of create some shots for

445
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,160
himself and for others. And that's about the best, Like

446
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,440
Marcus Sasser showed up in that game for a minute

447
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:55,559
because they needed this is what we're doing. The Pistons,

448
00:21:55,599 --> 00:21:57,319
I think are good enough at what they do well

449
00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,640
to win a series or two. Pretty feel pretty good

450
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,599
about that because they have such clear strengths in other areas.

451
00:22:05,759 --> 00:22:07,799
But this is just not an offense that is going

452
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,559
to survive the playoff callent I just don't I don't

453
00:22:10,599 --> 00:22:12,960
see how it happens with with the non threats they

454
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:14,839
have and the non creators that they sort of have

455
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,119
to play with to do all the other stuff that

456
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:17,839
makes them good.

457
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,640
Speaker 2: So they're just kind of stuck. The ceiling just isn't

458
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:21,519
high enough.

459
00:22:21,559 --> 00:22:23,519
Speaker 1: Right, And I think the problem where you run into

460
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,720
is looking at specific matchups where it feels I would

461
00:22:26,759 --> 00:22:30,519
say Cleveland and Boston specifically, especially Boston that's going to

462
00:22:30,559 --> 00:22:33,160
have Jason Tatum in there, their ability to go off

463
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,079
on offense against any particular defense, and the three point

464
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,640
shot making they have on their rosters. You can maybe

465
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,400
even say this with the I'm not being facetious here,

466
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,279
if you run into Charlotte in the first round, teams

467
00:22:45,279 --> 00:22:47,880
that could maybe get out to these double digit leads

468
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,799
and then make put even more pressure on you to

469
00:22:50,279 --> 00:22:53,079
make these decisions of well, how much do we skew

470
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:57,119
toward offense with our lineups for sustaying with our base rotation.

471
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,279
I'm going to go on a scale of one to

472
00:22:59,279 --> 00:23:05,039
ten here, I'm gonna seven, and like, just look seven

473
00:23:05,039 --> 00:23:07,240
and a half to an eight feels like the range.

474
00:23:07,279 --> 00:23:08,839
They should be the favorite to come out of the

475
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,160
east still, but it's just they are so they just

476
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,759
don't have a margin for any type of error on

477
00:23:14,839 --> 00:23:17,519
the offensive end, as good as their defense absolutely is.

478
00:23:18,079 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 3: As I'm trying to find a number, I'm weighing the

479
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,440
fact that we're going to have a similar issue with

480
00:23:24,519 --> 00:23:26,720
at least one other and maybe two other teams just

481
00:23:26,759 --> 00:23:28,359
off the top of my head. So I'm trying to

482
00:23:28,519 --> 00:23:32,599
weigh how severe the Pistons offensive issue is with against

483
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,920
a couple of other teams. My first thought was eight,

484
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,559
because I just think, I think this is an issue.

485
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:39,480
I do have one team with a similar issue that

486
00:23:39,559 --> 00:23:40,880
is indeed higher than an age.

487
00:23:41,039 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 2: Officially, I think I know it is.

488
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,799
Speaker 3: Maybe we should talk about them next, just because it's

489
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:50,960
kind of a natural flow. I think if they get beaten,

490
00:23:52,079 --> 00:23:54,440
this is why it will be. And I almost can't

491
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,839
think of another reason other than injury, you know, for

492
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,079
why the Pistons will will come up shore.

493
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,319
Speaker 2: So I'll give it an A and just move on there.

494
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 3: Lets should I I think I'm just gonna go where

495
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,680
you're leading me here, and maybe this will be quick

496
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,640
since the issues are similar. Let's go down to the

497
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:18,440
Houston Rockets, who have had some struggles. UH has a

498
00:24:18,519 --> 00:24:23,119
late game offensive team. Uh, they have similar issues with

499
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:25,920
some of the guys that make them so good at

500
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,480
what they're good at just are not useful offensively in

501
00:24:29,519 --> 00:24:34,000
a playoff setting. Talking about Aman Thompson, Alprin, Shing Goon,

502
00:24:34,559 --> 00:24:38,200
the just the look we all want more reliance on

503
00:24:38,279 --> 00:24:39,440
Reed Shepherd and.

504
00:24:39,599 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 1: Hey, he played, he played, He's.

505
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 2: Playing more, right, Yeah, your docus credit, he is playing more.

506
00:24:46,559 --> 00:24:49,759
Speaker 3: I mean, so I assume you're gonna go with this

507
00:24:49,839 --> 00:24:54,839
is an even more significant uh. Like the panic level

508
00:24:55,039 --> 00:24:57,240
with respect to Houston's offense is higher than it is

509
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,680
for Detroit's because Houston does not have its Cade Cunningham

510
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,920
to just set a high floor like the wheels can

511
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,640
really fall off offensively because Fred van Vliet's not there.

512
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,400
Reed Shepherd has not been given the opportunity to be ready.

513
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,880
But I would feel comfortable still saying he's not ready

514
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,319
to just be the reason that Houston is good on

515
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,240
offense by himself, or at least the main reason, which

516
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:19,839
it feels like at this point he almost will have

517
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:24,079
to be. So this team does have Kevin Durant I mean,

518
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,559
I guess I'm maybe like not acknowledging that enough and

519
00:25:27,599 --> 00:25:31,319
setting the offensive floor. But the numbers are what they

520
00:25:31,319 --> 00:25:33,559
are in terms of their overall offensive rating in the

521
00:25:33,599 --> 00:25:36,559
half court, their late game stuff, if you subtract the

522
00:25:36,599 --> 00:25:39,720
offensive rebounding dominance that they still have continued to have

523
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,480
without Steven Adams, Like this just isn't a good offense.

524
00:25:43,039 --> 00:25:46,519
So that I just I mean, I know you're ready

525
00:25:46,559 --> 00:25:48,920
to talk about him because you were kind of pointing

526
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:53,079
to them, but I'm way more concerned about Houston's offense

527
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:54,799
in a playoff setting than I am about Detroit.

528
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 2: So we're just saying something and I.

529
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 1: Think it just comes down to and this is maybe

530
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,359
it's a little bit of an end ditment. Like against

531
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,240
Reed Shepherd, I just don't know that he's had enough

532
00:26:03,279 --> 00:26:09,000
of an opportunity to fully cook. You have Kate Cunningham

533
00:26:09,039 --> 00:26:11,559
in Detroit. That player is not Yes, you have Kevin

534
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,759
Durant who's just not He's not gonna get to the

535
00:26:13,759 --> 00:26:16,319
basket as frequently is Kate Cunningham at this point.

536
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,839
Speaker 2: He's not the passer that Kate Cunningham is going to be.

537
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,599
Speaker 1: And so you have that huge variable in Detroit in

538
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,200
their favor that you just don't have in Houston right now,

539
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,039
because even if Reed Shepherd is going to be on

540
00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:29,519
the floor in crunch time, this is still someone that

541
00:26:30,039 --> 00:26:32,519
how much agency over the offense is he going to

542
00:26:32,559 --> 00:26:35,480
get in those minutes it's gonna take. Does Al princhingun

543
00:26:35,559 --> 00:26:38,079
need to fill out for him to be third in

544
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:39,799
the pet like you might still be more inclined to

545
00:26:39,839 --> 00:26:43,880
go with like rely on Amen Thompson there, and he doesn't.

546
00:26:44,079 --> 00:26:47,319
He's not gonna have the the status to like not

547
00:26:47,559 --> 00:26:49,799
give the ball to Kevin Durant, which is just so

548
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:51,440
often their default.

549
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 2: And you look there.

550
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 1: They'd started off hot in this category, but they've now

551
00:26:56,319 --> 00:27:00,279
dropped to twenty first in first chance offense and I'm

552
00:27:00,279 --> 00:27:01,839
honestly shocked it's still that high.

553
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: It feels like it should be lower.

554
00:27:03,279 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: When you're looking at the way that they've played in

555
00:27:05,039 --> 00:27:07,400
the late game play calling their nineteenth and crunch time

556
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,759
offensive rating. Overall, they have turnover issues in that. And two,

557
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,400
I don't want to say emi Udoka's credit. I guess

558
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,240
just to try and play devil's advocate here. When you

559
00:27:17,319 --> 00:27:20,440
start to really dig into their offensive data, there's not

560
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,279
enough evidence or even a ton of evidence to say, well, reed,

561
00:27:24,319 --> 00:27:28,319
Shepherd comes in and they're better off. They're averaging one

562
00:27:28,319 --> 00:27:31,200
point zero five points per possession when Shepherd plays with

563
00:27:31,599 --> 00:27:34,640
kd Ahmen, Shangun and Tari Easan, which is so like

564
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,200
that's their like their default starting lineup right now, They're

565
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,400
at one point one six points per posession when it's

566
00:27:40,519 --> 00:27:45,119
just Shepherd, kd Ahmen, Shangun and Jabbari. That's a slightly

567
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,960
above average. You're at one point four to eight for

568
00:27:48,039 --> 00:27:51,720
some reason, somehow with Shepherd, kd Ahmen, Shangun and Josha Kogi.

569
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,720
I think where the real issue lies here for me

570
00:27:55,599 --> 00:27:59,039
is I'm just wondering if in these instances, if the

571
00:27:59,079 --> 00:28:01,680
offense is ever going to be elite for a long

572
00:28:01,799 --> 00:28:05,200
enough time when it matters most with both Ahmen and

573
00:28:05,279 --> 00:28:09,960
Alprin Shangoon on the floor, given your other perimeter options

574
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,839
who aren't KD or read Shepherd, and so now you

575
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,559
start to dig into those numbers. The Rockets are scoring

576
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:19,039
one point two point one point twenty four points per possession.

577
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,359
When Shepherd plays with KD and Shangoon and no Ahmen Thompson,

578
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,960
the Rockets are at one point one to nine points

579
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,400
per possession when Sheppard plays with Amen Thompson, KD and

580
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,559
no Shangoon. I'm not saying the answer has to be

581
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,599
you put one of those guys off the floor. I

582
00:28:35,599 --> 00:28:37,599
think if you had Fred van Fleet, and maybe you

583
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,480
will in the playoffs, some of this changes. But I

584
00:28:40,519 --> 00:28:43,240
don't know that if you put Fred van Fleet in

585
00:28:43,359 --> 00:28:47,119
Read Shepherd's spot, You're going to feel a lot better

586
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:51,240
about Houston's crunch time, never mind the process. Yeah, put

587
00:28:51,279 --> 00:28:54,480
the offensive efficiency overall, given the personnel that you have.

588
00:28:55,359 --> 00:28:57,319
Let's just say around him and KD.

589
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,359
Speaker 3: That they had Fred van Vliet when they were the

590
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,880
number two seed last postseason and they lost in the

591
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,759
first round because they couldn't score. Like that's all right,

592
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,759
So that this has been a diagnosable issue.

593
00:29:09,559 --> 00:29:10,519
Speaker 2: For a very long time.

594
00:29:11,079 --> 00:29:14,599
Speaker 3: I think ultimately, I know you don't want to oversimplify it,

595
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,759
but I kind of can just get on board with

596
00:29:17,599 --> 00:29:22,279
the current versions of Thompson and Shannggoon. Just don't give

597
00:29:22,319 --> 00:29:27,920
you enough downhill playmaking slash shooting to.

598
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 2: Make this work.

599
00:29:29,079 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 3: And you can surround those guys with with Smith and

600
00:29:31,519 --> 00:29:34,640
Shephard and like Easton's making threes, and I just still

601
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,960
I don't think defenses. It's just too easy for defense

602
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,400
to play this team, dishonestly, they don't have to account

603
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:42,359
for one.

604
00:29:42,279 --> 00:29:43,839
Speaker 2: Or two key players.

605
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,119
Speaker 3: And like, this is the conundrum, right, because Thompson is

606
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,079
great at like a lot of things, and Shangun is

607
00:29:49,119 --> 00:29:50,640
great at a lot of things. And so the best

608
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,279
version of the Rockets on balance have them on the floor.

609
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,319
But that just means that the best version of the

610
00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,799
Rockets is never going to be you know, the best

611
00:30:00,839 --> 00:30:03,119
version of the Rockets is gonna have these flaws just

612
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,680
built in until one or both figure out how to

613
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:11,279
have very different offensive games. So similar to the Pistons.

614
00:30:11,799 --> 00:30:13,599
But I would argue, and I think I think you

615
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:15,279
would agree, more.

616
00:30:15,079 --> 00:30:17,839
Speaker 2: Pronounced and more like ten. You've already seen it.

617
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a ten because this is exactly why they

618
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,559
got upset in the first round last year, and like,

619
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:24,880
what what's different?

620
00:30:25,599 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: And the in fact you added KD and it feels

621
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:31,160
like it hasn't changed enough. And the other thing here

622
00:30:31,279 --> 00:30:33,839
is there were Pistons fans were not happy about this

623
00:30:33,839 --> 00:30:35,119
when I said, I think this is going to be

624
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:39,000
their best chance at winning a titles this season. The Rockets,

625
00:30:39,039 --> 00:30:41,440
even if you don't necessarily believe it by default or

626
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,519
in the same I think you can, and I will

627
00:30:44,519 --> 00:30:46,200
make the case even though I had that take about

628
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,759
the Pistons, it's more inexcusable that the Rockets didn't do

629
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,920
anything to address this need the trade deadline than the Pistons,

630
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:57,680
because the Rockets just traded for a thirty seven year

631
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:58,279
old Kevin Der.

632
00:30:58,440 --> 00:30:59,119
Speaker 2: Yeah. Good point.

633
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,039
Speaker 3: I was gonna push back and say, well, but like

634
00:31:01,079 --> 00:31:05,200
the Pistons really their ceilings higher. But but the Rockets,

635
00:31:05,359 --> 00:31:07,880
so they should have gone for MPJ, because you know,

636
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,400
he really might, we would be talking about them, I

637
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,319
think very differently the Pistons if they had.

638
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,799
Speaker 1: They also had it felt like more of a clear

639
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,359
go after that guy or of Houston because you wanted

640
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,200
some creation. It was we talked about Michael Porter Junior

641
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,519
for them, but we also said, like, would Kate Cunningham

642
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,720
be good enough? How good does this player need to be?

643
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:30,559
But their timeline is inherently more urgent, just because the

644
00:31:30,599 --> 00:31:33,920
person who has been no worse than their second best player,

645
00:31:34,079 --> 00:31:38,160
and that's putting it probably a little generously, is not

646
00:31:38,279 --> 00:31:41,559
going to be This guy isn't going to be around forever.

647
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,119
Just well that's how age works. He's will will not

648
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,000
get better, like won't get better?

649
00:31:46,279 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 3: Like that's you might so like, yeah, okay, Shepherd might improve,

650
00:31:49,279 --> 00:31:54,079
but Durant like sorry, if he holds, Shepherd will become

651
00:31:54,079 --> 00:31:56,599
a super nova. But Durant will be lucky if he's

652
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,759
this good next year, Like that would be great if

653
00:31:58,759 --> 00:31:59,720
he was this good next year.

654
00:31:59,759 --> 00:32:01,519
Speaker 1: I mean, credible question.

655
00:32:02,319 --> 00:32:03,039
Speaker 2: Who makes more?

656
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,079
Speaker 1: Who makes more all NBA teams for their career? Paalo

657
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:07,519
Banko or Read Shepherd?

658
00:32:07,839 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 3: Oh, things are looking good for our guy Paolo at

659
00:32:13,759 --> 00:32:20,559
at the moment. Uh, it's really bad that I'm hesitating.

660
00:32:20,839 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 2: It's really bad. Are we being serious? Is it still?

661
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: He plays in the East, it's gonna be easier for

662
00:32:27,519 --> 00:32:29,160
him to get recognition.

663
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,839
Speaker 3: There, No, man, it's a question. I'll just say read

664
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,400
Shepherd for the for the take of it all, Okay,

665
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:36,920
what's your ten for me?

666
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: With with Houston?

667
00:32:38,039 --> 00:32:39,079
Speaker 2: Though? Absolutely for sure?

668
00:32:39,079 --> 00:32:41,079
Speaker 1: You Now, I don't know who to pick though, because

669
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,480
this was easily gonna be my next pick and I wasn't.

670
00:32:43,839 --> 00:32:46,079
I mean, do I be am I this guy?

671
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 2: Now?

672
00:32:46,319 --> 00:32:48,599
Speaker 1: Let's well, who'd we do? Let's go to an Eastern

673
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:56,759
Conference team, Let's talk, Let's talk Cavaliers. So I'm this

674
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,359
is so the sample James Harden's playing well for the

675
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,079
Rockets is a OK and thumb and is still shooting

676
00:33:01,119 --> 00:33:03,519
like a trillion percent from three. This is the trade

677
00:33:03,559 --> 00:33:05,440
looks better just because now we've seen it in action.

678
00:33:05,599 --> 00:33:08,000
Even though I'm a firm believer in if they don't

679
00:33:08,039 --> 00:33:10,640
win the title, I don't know how that trade ends

680
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,359
up being a success. So short of Darius Garland is

681
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:14,039
just never good.

682
00:33:14,359 --> 00:33:14,599
Speaker 2: Yeah.

683
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:18,359
Speaker 1: Again, that being said, they're seventeenth in defense. Since Harden

684
00:33:18,359 --> 00:33:20,480
made his debut, they have close to a one to

685
00:33:20,519 --> 00:33:23,480
eighteen defensive rating when Harden and Mitchell are on the court. Now,

686
00:33:23,759 --> 00:33:27,039
the caveat is, and by the way, what's concerning about

687
00:33:27,039 --> 00:33:30,000
that number is they haven't gotten unlucky on opponent threes,

688
00:33:30,359 --> 00:33:32,839
but they also haven't played with Evan Mobley a ton

689
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,200
and they're all of a sudden they're allowing point zero

690
00:33:35,319 --> 00:33:37,160
nine eight points per possession when he's on the court.

691
00:33:37,319 --> 00:33:40,319
So their base defense I think should be fine. It

692
00:33:40,319 --> 00:33:43,400
does help that Harden has some size in girth to him,

693
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,160
and I think Mitchell by and large has been better

694
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,359
defensively in Cleveland than he was for a lot of

695
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:53,000
his time in Utah. My concern with this team is

696
00:33:53,119 --> 00:33:58,400
they are just uber reliant on Dean Wade remaining healthy

697
00:33:58,759 --> 00:34:02,799
and then Jalen Tyson defensively overall, and if not them,

698
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,039
then you're kind of saying, oh, we need Kean Ellis

699
00:34:06,079 --> 00:34:08,800
or Dennis Shrewder to guard up. And I also just

700
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,840
wonder if their guard situation. This would have been true

701
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,079
with Darius Garland unless you thought he wasn't gonna play.

702
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,159
But does having Harden and Mitchell all of a sudden

703
00:34:18,159 --> 00:34:22,199
when you get to the playoffs diminish by necessity your

704
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,920
dependence on Sam Merrill, who's been excellent already, has fantastic

705
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,159
chemistry with James Harden and I think is better defensively

706
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,920
than people give him credit for. But he's not a

707
00:34:32,039 --> 00:34:35,280
turn the water off wing, and that I think. I

708
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,159
don't know if Jalen Tyson will ever get there. Dean

709
00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:40,679
Wade is probably the closest. It's one of those two, right.

710
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,320
The problem is they don't have that player, and I

711
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:47,119
think you don't need to have that player necessarily, But

712
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,880
when you're backcourt is built the way it kind of is,

713
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,159
and you're gonna run dual biggs, a lot of the time,

714
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,000
I think that that's going to matter, And so I'm

715
00:34:56,079 --> 00:34:58,239
very curiously what their defense looks like in the playoffs,

716
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,639
and even more curious there gonna be minutes presumably Evan

717
00:35:02,679 --> 00:35:04,880
Mobley's at the five, So what does it look like?

718
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,079
Then what happens with the rebounding They're not even an

719
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,440
incredibly great rebounding team when Allen and Mobiley are on

720
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,159
the court together. Presumably that's not going to get Harden

721
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,239
might help there a little bit, but you're not gonna

722
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,719
get better if you do downsize to Mobili at the five.

723
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:24,639
So there, I just find myself wondering if couldn't James

724
00:35:24,679 --> 00:35:27,239
Harden have like one of his best playoff runs ever?

725
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,320
And we look back and say, yeah, like the Cavs

726
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,679
just still weren't good enough to get past the Pistons,

727
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,480
or to get past the Celtics. Who's still with Jason

728
00:35:36,519 --> 00:35:40,440
Tatum coming back? Now, have those extra wing bodies laying around,

729
00:35:40,519 --> 00:35:42,800
or are more switchable on the defensive end, or even

730
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,039
a team like the Knicks to where it's their defensive peak,

731
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,559
I might argue at this point is higher than Cleveland's

732
00:35:48,559 --> 00:35:52,920
defensive peak just having mckel bridges, Jose Alvarado ogiananobi if

733
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,639
Duce McBride gets healthy. I think Landry Sham has been

734
00:35:55,679 --> 00:35:57,639
one of the more kind of like how Sam Merrill

735
00:35:57,679 --> 00:36:01,159
is defensively for Cleveland, Landry Sham is that for New

736
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,000
York it's oh no, like he's better and he's gonna

737
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,360
fight on defense. More is that the concern you have

738
00:36:06,519 --> 00:36:08,480
is that the right one? Or where did you land

739
00:36:08,519 --> 00:36:08,719
with that?

740
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,559
Speaker 3: I think all what you're saying is is plausible where

741
00:36:12,639 --> 00:36:17,280
Harden could be great and everything else every several other

742
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,320
things don't go right for Cleveland, And I'm glad you

743
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,159
gave a lot of numbers because my analysis of Cleveland

744
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:28,039
is not like that thoughtful, because it's it starts and

745
00:36:28,119 --> 00:36:31,559
ends with they have James Harden. He will have to

746
00:36:31,599 --> 00:36:35,000
be great throughout the playoffs for them to be successful,

747
00:36:35,039 --> 00:36:38,960
and he's never done it. He's two and twelve and

748
00:36:39,039 --> 00:36:42,920
shooting thirty nine percent in elimination games. His list of

749
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,039
like the thing I like to say is his playoff

750
00:36:46,519 --> 00:36:51,239
collapses will not be the leading sentence of his career epitaph,

751
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,280
but they're gonna show up no later than paragraph two.

752
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:59,320
They like that is next to changing the concept of

753
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,440
how usage offense with Houston and being one of the

754
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:06,079
greatest you know him alone offensive players of all time.

755
00:37:07,119 --> 00:37:12,159
He's defined by just he has so many to complete

756
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:16,440
shit the bed games in critical moments, and the boy

757
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,079
him Grant, Why is that going to stop?

758
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:20,159
Speaker 2: Why is that going to stop?

759
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 3: Dan? It's one of those like, let me when it

760
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,719
when it stops, I'll be happy for him, hands up,

761
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:27,039
go ahead, But I don't see him.

762
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: Oh no, finish your thought was that?

763
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,199
Speaker 3: I just it's basically a long winded version of saying,

764
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,480
I'll bet against it until he proves me wrong.

765
00:37:36,039 --> 00:37:38,039
Speaker 1: I think that's fair, But then I also kind of

766
00:37:38,079 --> 00:37:40,840
forget what's happened to Cleveland already in the postseason of

767
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:43,400
the years prior. And if you were worried about what

768
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,480
what would you rather have? The James Harden you've seen

769
00:37:46,519 --> 00:37:48,519
who's on the court in these elimination games, are their

770
00:37:48,559 --> 00:37:52,039
prospect of Darius Ill By the way, if I was Cleveland,

771
00:37:52,039 --> 00:37:54,079
I would not have made the trade. But the counterpoint

772
00:37:54,079 --> 00:37:56,440
would be, or would you just rather have nobody in

773
00:37:56,519 --> 00:37:59,039
that spot? Because there's a real chance Darius Garland wouldn't

774
00:37:59,039 --> 00:37:59,639
be available.

775
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,679
Speaker 3: I think the problem is what you're saying is still Also,

776
00:38:03,039 --> 00:38:06,679
Darius Garland is not exactly goaded as a playoff performer,

777
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,079
and injuries have been a factor. Like honestly, same for

778
00:38:09,159 --> 00:38:12,000
Donovan Mitchell. He hasn't made it. You know, there's always

779
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:16,239
he's breaking down, He's he's playing, but he looks exhausted

780
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,079
and hurt or he just is hurt. And that's peppered

781
00:38:19,079 --> 00:38:22,480
in there against some incredible playoff performances like going back

782
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:26,880
to Utah. Even Mobley has not been his best self

783
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,280
in the postseason, neither his Allen. So there's all these

784
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,480
other are they really up for this kind of questions

785
00:38:32,519 --> 00:38:35,679
that surround the Cavs and then you're adding the ultimate

786
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:36,639
is he really up for this?

787
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 2: Answer? No, guy in James Harden. So like concern level

788
00:38:42,079 --> 00:38:42,719
like what is.

789
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 3: So?

790
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,199
Speaker 2: I mean, I I have one.

791
00:38:46,679 --> 00:38:49,519
Speaker 1: It might be a hot take my concern levels like

792
00:38:49,559 --> 00:38:53,639
a five or a six here, Yeah, just because Mobley

793
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,000
since he's come back, has looked pretty damn good. And

794
00:38:56,079 --> 00:38:57,880
so now that you have even if James Harden's not

795
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,960
playing well, I think the attention that he commands is Okay,

796
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,119
are we kind of seeing that Evan.

797
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:03,599
Speaker 2: Mobley is now?

798
00:39:03,679 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 1: You and I were big on Evan Mobley can be

799
00:39:05,519 --> 00:39:07,280
the focal point of your offense and just your best

800
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,079
player overall, and you're gonna be a contender. I will

801
00:39:10,119 --> 00:39:14,679
say I haven't completely walked off that belief, but we

802
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,440
are tottering yet. Doesn't mean Evan Mobley's not an All

803
00:39:17,519 --> 00:39:19,920
NBA caliber player. He app yep, look what he did

804
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:21,800
last year. He was where he finished fifth on my

805
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:23,239
MVP b out or whatever it was.

806
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:24,679
Speaker 2: But this isn't.

807
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 1: It doesn't feel like that's going to be a every

808
00:39:27,559 --> 00:39:31,920
season perennial type thing for him. That's why I'm ultimately

809
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,360
going and because he exists and the ability to play

810
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,480
with him and Jared Allen exist that I think you're

811
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,599
the floor for your defense if you go dual big

812
00:39:39,639 --> 00:39:41,920
with this team can still be pretty high. I'll go

813
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,880
six just to communicate that this team is still built

814
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:49,599
rather weirdly. It's just a lot of you have your

815
00:39:49,679 --> 00:39:51,960
two bigs in Evan Mobley and Jared Allen, that it's

816
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:53,360
just a bunch of non wings.

817
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 2: Basically, Yeah, would you.

818
00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 3: I guess if you had to pick right now, do

819
00:39:59,039 --> 00:40:01,679
you think the the Pistons or the Calves are more

820
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,880
likely to come out of the East.

821
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 1: I would say the Pistons. There's just like more proof

822
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,400
of concept of what they're doing. And you factor in

823
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,800
the James Harden thing, and I think that there's just

824
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,239
something maybe Mobile will prove me wrong over the course

825
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,639
of the rest of the year. This Calves team, other

826
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,400
teams feels if they're still.

827
00:40:21,159 --> 00:40:24,400
Speaker 2: Built to win ugly. The Calves do not. It just

828
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,639
doesn't dual Big one Big. It just doesn't.

829
00:40:26,679 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 1: They don't seem built hashtag built for that.

830
00:40:30,639 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 3: I think I would agree with you. So what did

831
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:36,400
you say the Cavs. I'll like, yeah, I'll go six

832
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:38,320
as well. I mean, I'll just go seven because I

833
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,840
really do think, well, they haven't really proven anything either,

834
00:40:41,039 --> 00:40:43,320
like the guys that are still there from their previous course.

835
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 2: So there's that aspect of it too.

836
00:40:45,639 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, because you could even point to they kind of

837
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,519
turned things around, turn things around even before the Garland trade.

838
00:40:50,599 --> 00:40:52,679
They're like the best team in basketball since before the

839
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,599
New year. When you're looking at records and it's you've

840
00:40:55,639 --> 00:40:59,119
reached the point, who would be the best analog for

841
00:40:59,199 --> 00:41:01,000
this where it's like not like you've we've seen you

842
00:41:01,039 --> 00:41:03,239
dominate the regular season before you have to prove it

843
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,000
in the playoffs. Probably it was probably a James Harden team.

844
00:41:07,119 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 2: I mean James Harden's rockets. There you go, that's it. Okay,

845
00:41:11,079 --> 00:41:11,800
is it my turns?

846
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 1: You?

847
00:41:12,679 --> 00:41:16,599
Speaker 2: It's your turn? Okay, this one we got. This has

848
00:41:16,639 --> 00:41:18,639
to be a collaborative one because this was really hard

849
00:41:18,639 --> 00:41:19,880
for me. I'm gonna pick Boston.

850
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:23,599
Speaker 3: The obvious massive variable is Jason Tatum is is gonna

851
00:41:23,599 --> 00:41:25,719
be have played a game by the time you're listening

852
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:29,719
to this, And and does that just mean that Boston

853
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:31,760
is now the best team in the East because they

854
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,559
were already fairly close to that and they've they were

855
00:41:34,599 --> 00:41:35,159
already there?

856
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 1: Could we both we know we're gonna have to do that.

857
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:38,760
Speaker 2: We were wrong and we were.

858
00:41:38,639 --> 00:41:41,119
Speaker 1: Sorry podcast and sometimes, oh my god, that's not about that,

859
00:41:41,199 --> 00:41:44,400
and everyone. I think everyone's wrong about the Celtics. They

860
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:48,320
were favored at sports books to win the East before

861
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:54,639
Jason Tatum's turn return. I don't care. That's insane that

862
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,280
they're grant They're on basically a fifty five win pace

863
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,639
as and Jason Tatum has played zero games and they

864
00:42:00,679 --> 00:42:06,039
did the full on tax ducking super Mario Meme maneuver

865
00:42:06,039 --> 00:42:08,480
where he's evading all the fireballs and like all the obstacles.

866
00:42:08,519 --> 00:42:10,960
Oh yeah, yeah, and they're just yeah, we're pays for

867
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:12,239
fifty four to fifty five wins.

868
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:13,519
Speaker 2: Ain't no thing. We're good.

869
00:42:14,159 --> 00:42:19,679
Speaker 3: I mean, So this is and having and I agree

870
00:42:19,679 --> 00:42:22,519
with you. So having laid that out there, I gotta

871
00:42:22,599 --> 00:42:25,639
just like nitpick, I guess. And so what I landed

872
00:42:25,679 --> 00:42:29,199
on was just this Celtics team and this is kind

873
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:33,719
of an extreme version of what's been true for several seasons,

874
00:42:34,199 --> 00:42:36,719
just doesn't get the cheapies, which is to say, they're

875
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,880
dead last in free in rimitem frequency and they're dead

876
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,400
last in free throw a temp rate.

877
00:42:42,039 --> 00:42:43,039
Speaker 2: So it makes you wonder.

878
00:42:43,119 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 3: Now they make up for that with an otherwise pretty

879
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:48,239
high variance style, a lot of threes, not quite as

880
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,239
extreme as it's been, but incredible Jalen Brown two point

881
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:55,639
jump shooting. It makes me nervous when a team doesn't

882
00:42:55,679 --> 00:42:56,599
get to the basket.

883
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 2: And this is very much related.

884
00:42:59,119 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 3: Does not shoot a lot of free throws because if

885
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,559
you believe, and this has been largely proven to be true,

886
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,519
that the increased physicality of the postseason and just teams

887
00:43:08,519 --> 00:43:11,599
scout you out of the one, first, second, and third

888
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:16,320
most you know, preferred offensive options in your Arsenal. At

889
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:17,760
some point you kind of got to just get to

890
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,320
the basket and bang around and get points that way,

891
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:23,480
and Boston just does not do that at all. That's

892
00:43:23,519 --> 00:43:25,719
the best I got, because this is a team that

893
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,239
has blown away expectations, is wired as tight as any

894
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,800
system wise like understands how it needs to play to

895
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,599
be successful, and is adding Jason Tatum. I you know,

896
00:43:36,199 --> 00:43:38,199
I don't know what to do with that team in

897
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,119
terms of like is there a structural flaw?

898
00:43:40,159 --> 00:43:41,800
Speaker 2: You might point to the center rotation.

899
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,679
Speaker 3: I guess like Vucevic has looked mostly very bad, so

900
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:48,599
it's cata and then you're gonna play small or trust

901
00:43:48,679 --> 00:43:52,599
Luca Garza or whatever. I have a much harder time

902
00:43:52,679 --> 00:43:55,880
finding just this glaring thing like we can with Detroit

903
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,239
or with Houston or even like with Cleveland. So I'm

904
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,280
just pointing to, yeah, you guys don't get enough easy points,

905
00:44:02,599 --> 00:44:04,440
and that's the best I got.

906
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:05,599
Speaker 2: You got anything else there?

907
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:06,079
Speaker 3: No?

908
00:44:06,159 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: And I think to just to add to that is

909
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,480
I don't I'm not as worried. I've seen some people

910
00:44:10,519 --> 00:44:13,480
talk about it's not that is this Jalen Browns or

911
00:44:13,559 --> 00:44:16,320
Jason Tatum's team? Now, like that's a that's a first

912
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,000
take conversation that I think was an actual first take conversation.

913
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:19,679
Speaker 2: Sure it was.

914
00:44:20,119 --> 00:44:23,159
Speaker 1: The real conversation is, well, what does he look like?

915
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,039
And how does what's the interplay like? Does it change

916
00:44:26,039 --> 00:44:28,760
their offense at all? Jason Tatum is so scalable. I'm

917
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:32,000
not worried about it. And I actually view Jalen Brown's

918
00:44:32,039 --> 00:44:34,960
experience running more pick and rolls than ever, more self

919
00:44:35,039 --> 00:44:38,519
created shots than ever, as just well, now they're better

920
00:44:38,639 --> 00:44:41,400
built for Jason Tatum to play off others, and he's

921
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,760
always been able to play off others. They'll find that dynamic.

922
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:47,960
I'd worry about where your point was. Jason Tatum was

923
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:51,280
one of their best drivers of free throw attempts. You're

924
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,119
probably not gonna get that version of Jason Tatum, and

925
00:44:54,159 --> 00:44:57,719
if you do, I mean, holy crap. I would nitpick

926
00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:59,480
a little bit about the center rotation as well. Are

927
00:44:59,519 --> 00:45:02,000
you gonna be just because you want some more heft?

928
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:04,679
Are you gonna be dependent on vouch? What does Kato

929
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:06,559
look like in the playoffs? I think what you could

930
00:45:06,599 --> 00:45:10,119
also go a little bit more generally too, is all right?

931
00:45:10,199 --> 00:45:11,119
Speaker 2: Like you right now?

932
00:45:11,159 --> 00:45:14,800
Speaker 1: You kind of need minutes from Baylor Shireman or Hugo Gonzalez.

933
00:45:15,199 --> 00:45:17,559
What do those guys look like in the playoffs? This

934
00:45:17,639 --> 00:45:20,000
is you know, the Derek Whites, the Peyton Pritchard by

935
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,360
the way, like he's getting more self created opt like

936
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:25,119
that just sort of insulates them further against No, they'll

937
00:45:25,119 --> 00:45:27,880
figure it out on offense. And you don't have questions

938
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:31,039
about Pritchard and White and Brown and Tatum and even

939
00:45:31,199 --> 00:45:34,800
maybe even Sam Hauser at this point. But that's half

940
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,039
your rotation about and I think the rest is okay, Well,

941
00:45:37,079 --> 00:45:39,920
what do they look like playing heavy minutes in a

942
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,760
postseason rotation? And that to me might almost be the

943
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:48,559
bigger concern, which underscores I would give this whatever pick,

944
00:45:48,599 --> 00:45:51,320
whatever concern you want from the list that you laid out,

945
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:53,280
I will give it a I'll give it a three.

946
00:45:53,679 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 2: Yeah.

947
00:45:54,559 --> 00:45:56,679
Speaker 3: I think as we're talking about this, I'm realizing that

948
00:45:56,719 --> 00:46:01,679
my concern level is related to kind of the stakes

949
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:04,760
of not winning it this year, and for the Celtics

950
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,599
for sure. I mean, it's it's not quite right to

951
00:46:07,599 --> 00:46:11,119
call it a found money season because the circumstances that

952
00:46:11,199 --> 00:46:14,039
led to it, chiefly a catastrophic injury to your best player,

953
00:46:14,519 --> 00:46:17,679
are so unfortunate. Like there's nothing like, this isn't a

954
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,599
lucky year in any in that sense, right, you don't

955
00:46:20,639 --> 00:46:23,760
want to have to have blown away expectations because your

956
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:27,760
best players hurt, but it still happened. I think the

957
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:32,880
long term outlook of Boston just is only better now

958
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,079
because it's pretty clear that Jason Tatum could come back

959
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,519
diminished and this team might still just be the team

960
00:46:39,559 --> 00:46:42,760
we go into next season viewing as on par with

961
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,960
the Pistons as favorites in the East. So I'll give

962
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,719
it a two because they had no business being in

963
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:51,360
this conversation at all.

964
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 1: And so it's like if we were coming into this

965
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:56,960
with the Celtics entered the season as favorites in the

966
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,000
Eastern Conference, your concern level is then problem, like why yeah,

967
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:03,039
why are Pistons concern level is like the granted we

968
00:47:03,039 --> 00:47:05,159
didn't have them as favorites in the East either, but

969
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:09,239
the expectations have soared as a result. And just with Boston,

970
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,679
it's if this is all if they flame out and

971
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:13,679
it was all done in service of all Right, now

972
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,119
the team is willing to spend more because they ducked attacks.

973
00:47:16,119 --> 00:47:19,119
You got some sea legs under Jason Tatum. All right, Cool,

974
00:47:19,159 --> 00:47:22,679
But if you really believe, Because what's troubling there, though,

975
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:24,639
is if we go with a three, and we went

976
00:47:24,639 --> 00:47:26,880
with an eight seven and a half eight for the Pistons,

977
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,760
are you are we also effectively saying that we don't

978
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,599
view the Celtics' peak as being on par with the Pistons.

979
00:47:32,639 --> 00:47:33,239
Speaker 2: Is this year?

980
00:47:33,599 --> 00:47:36,679
Speaker 1: The othernet is No, I think Boston's peak is right there.

981
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:40,519
I think Boston is the biggest threat to Detroit in

982
00:47:40,559 --> 00:47:43,079
the Eastern Conference. You can make the case for Cleveland,

983
00:47:43,079 --> 00:47:46,480
you can make the case. There's cases for everybody. Yeah,

984
00:47:46,559 --> 00:47:49,519
So I do struggle with that. But it is like

985
00:47:49,599 --> 00:47:52,679
the expectations for Boston were lower coming into the season

986
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,639
than they were for the Pistons because they weren't dealing with,

987
00:47:55,679 --> 00:47:58,119
as you said, that catastrophic injury absence.

988
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:00,800
Speaker 3: To that point, we kind of talked about the idea

989
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:03,880
at the outset of well, if you time traveled to

990
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:07,599
June and said this team won the title, you're to

991
00:48:07,679 --> 00:48:11,119
qualify here, you can't be That can't seem impossible to

992
00:48:11,199 --> 00:48:13,199
you starting from today.

993
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 2: If we were.

994
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 3: Starting from October and you time traveled to June and

995
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,400
someone said the Celtics won the title, what would you

996
00:48:20,519 --> 00:48:24,119
think like, well, they must have traded for Yannis like

997
00:48:24,639 --> 00:48:27,599
or something like, there's just no So in terms of

998
00:48:27,639 --> 00:48:31,679
like the implausibility, if you go back to the beginning

999
00:48:31,679 --> 00:48:35,039
of the season, Boston is I mean, it is insane

1000
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,760
that the Celtics are where they are right now. It's

1001
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:43,280
it's just unbelievable, and it's honestly cool, like that's great,

1002
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:44,039
this is awesome.

1003
00:48:44,119 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 2: I'm really like, it's exciting.

1004
00:48:45,559 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 3: To me that this team that already has a title,

1005
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,440
by the way, is not done because clear that they

1006
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:57,360
can weather what seems like the absolute most devastating, like

1007
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:00,760
catastrophic storm and looked pretty good.

1008
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,119
Speaker 2: Their next their five year time horizon looks pretty good

1009
00:49:03,119 --> 00:49:03,320
to me.

1010
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 1: And it's also just they kind of are good substitutes

1011
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:09,599
for because you look at Philly and Toronto and they're

1012
00:49:09,599 --> 00:49:13,119
probably where we expected them to be. But Orlando was

1013
00:49:13,559 --> 00:49:16,719
supposed to be in this exercise and just not so

1014
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,039
Boston kind of subs and replaces them. So it adds

1015
00:49:19,039 --> 00:49:24,199
that wrinkle my pick. Now, right, let's go with we

1016
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:26,760
just did. Let's go to the Western Conference and we're

1017
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:31,079
gonna talk about the Denver Nuggets, which I think because

1018
00:49:31,119 --> 00:49:32,840
I think there's one of two ways you could go,

1019
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:36,239
and they're both more so general is you could say,

1020
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,559
are they gonna be healthy enough? But I and then

1021
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,280
it's their defense, And I just feel like those two

1022
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:45,880
things are inextricably related, right because their defense has not

1023
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:49,119
been great. Since Nikola Jokic has come back, he has

1024
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:53,000
looked way less than great on that end of the floor,

1025
00:49:53,039 --> 00:49:55,800
and it's it's brought Have you given this any consideration?

1026
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:57,480
Do you think that he would have come back when

1027
00:49:57,519 --> 00:50:00,320
he did if not for the sixty five game rule?

1028
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:01,119
Speaker 2: Man?

1029
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:04,760
Speaker 1: Do you think he's above that? Not based on his demeanor.

1030
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:07,599
But this is someone who's won a championship, He's won MVPs.

1031
00:50:07,639 --> 00:50:08,159
Speaker 2: I could see.

1032
00:50:08,199 --> 00:50:10,199
Speaker 1: I'm not saying he's not competitive, but in my I

1033
00:50:10,199 --> 00:50:12,559
think in my head I always just assumed he's not

1034
00:50:13,199 --> 00:50:15,719
gonna get caught up in all that. But yeah, he

1035
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:17,880
comes back with a one game cushing it. It's made

1036
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:18,760
me think a little bit.

1037
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 3: He is high on the list of guys I would

1038
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:25,079
assume don't care about about that stuff, but it is

1039
00:50:25,199 --> 00:50:27,480
he did come back at a point where, yeah, he

1040
00:50:27,519 --> 00:50:28,360
can miss one more.

1041
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 2: He's right under the wire right now. I wanted to ask.

1042
00:50:31,559 --> 00:50:35,320
Speaker 3: You like if you so the Nuggets have a title,

1043
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,840
Jokic has a title. He put to bed the narrative

1044
00:50:38,039 --> 00:50:40,840
that we I think a lot of people bought. I

1045
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,280
think I subscribed to it for a time before they

1046
00:50:43,639 --> 00:50:45,920
broke through and won at all, that you sort of

1047
00:50:46,039 --> 00:50:46,960
can't have.

1048
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,280
Speaker 2: A defense that's good enough to win a championship if

1049
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:50,280
he's in the middle of it.

1050
00:50:51,119 --> 00:50:54,079
Speaker 3: That died because he proved that one. He was better

1051
00:50:54,119 --> 00:50:55,960
defensively than a lot of people give him credit for,

1052
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:58,440
and has mostly that's been the case for the last

1053
00:50:58,519 --> 00:51:01,920
several years leading into this one host championship. But this

1054
00:51:02,039 --> 00:51:05,880
version of Jokic, that is an accurate statement, I think,

1055
00:51:06,119 --> 00:51:09,960
because he has been so rough defensively where opponents take

1056
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,079
more shots at the rim with him on the floor

1057
00:51:12,119 --> 00:51:15,039
than off, which has never happened before, at least since

1058
00:51:15,039 --> 00:51:18,239
his rookie year, So not a deterrent, that's never been

1059
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:20,800
the case. And certainly schematically, it's easier to get shots

1060
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:22,559
at the rim with this version of Jokic than it's

1061
00:51:22,559 --> 00:51:25,760
ever been and he's allowing like sixty four percent, which

1062
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:29,000
is pretty rough among bigs that defend a lot of shots.

1063
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,239
Speaker 2: So this is it.

1064
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:34,800
Speaker 3: It's like we've transported the argument from twenty twenty one

1065
00:51:35,119 --> 00:51:38,639
to today, and now it's kind of applicable where the

1066
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:41,639
jokic at the middle of a defense, I guess unless

1067
00:51:41,679 --> 00:51:43,719
you get Gordon back and he's one hundred percent and

1068
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:46,800
Peyton Watson is back at one hundred percent, it's it's

1069
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:47,599
just not enough.

1070
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 2: I just don't think the defense is good enough.

1071
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 1: I would agree, And now I'm gonna explain to you

1072
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,079
why I think this is the right concern to focus

1073
00:51:55,119 --> 00:51:57,719
on and why my level is just like a two.

1074
00:51:58,119 --> 00:52:00,159
Speaker 2: Okay, great, I've seen I know.

1075
00:52:00,119 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 1: If you've seen this take spreading around. I'm Zachlow said it,

1076
00:52:03,039 --> 00:52:05,360
and so of course it's spread like wildfire after it.

1077
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:06,920
Speaker 2: And that's not to denigrate anyone who did it.

1078
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,039
Speaker 1: And I'm sure we've parroted stuff that Zachlo has said

1079
00:52:09,079 --> 00:52:11,039
all the time, but he just said, this doesn't feel

1080
00:52:11,079 --> 00:52:13,440
like the Nuggets is year, and now that has kind

1081
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:14,280
of spiraled.

1082
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:14,679
Speaker 2: Into its own take.

1083
00:52:15,199 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 1: I don't want to call bs I if they get healthy,

1084
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,159
why not is where? So if you're concern is Aaron

1085
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:23,639
Gordon is never gonna be healthy, Cam Johnson's never gonna

1086
00:52:23,679 --> 00:52:27,159
be healthy, Peyton Watson's not gonna be healthy again. Yeah,

1087
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:30,760
I mean, you lose three of your top six seven players.

1088
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:34,719
That's that's a problem. But the defense, we don't. Can

1089
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:39,079
you tell me how many games there would be starting

1090
00:52:39,119 --> 00:52:40,480
five has played in together?

1091
00:52:40,559 --> 00:52:42,559
Speaker 2: Oh? I think I know. It's like ten? Is it ten?

1092
00:52:42,679 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 1: It's exactly ten, which there have been noticeably more than

1093
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:48,840
ten games played this season.

1094
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 2: Grant, I'm not sure if you know.

1095
00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:51,599
Speaker 1: So you look at you start to dig into those

1096
00:52:51,639 --> 00:52:54,360
the Jokic stuff you're saying for sure, and the other

1097
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:56,840
thing that Denver doesn't have the luxury of we've seen

1098
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,440
more turnovers from them than we're used to since the

1099
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:03,320
Yokids were and they just don't have, even at full capacity,

1100
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,519
the raw athleticism to not get nuked in transition.

1101
00:53:07,039 --> 00:53:09,320
Speaker 3: Sorry, can I ask you, because we've talked, I brought

1102
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,199
I harped on the defense of Jokic. You're pointing out correctly,

1103
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:14,039
the turnovers there have just been more like what the

1104
00:53:14,039 --> 00:53:17,199
hell was that like turnovers from him since he I

1105
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:20,360
just attribute that to the injury and so like, I

1106
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:22,840
think he came back too soon, and I think this

1107
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:24,440
is the version of him you have and it's not

1108
00:53:24,639 --> 00:53:25,760
it's not the real guy.

1109
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:30,159
Speaker 1: It's also the first extended absence of his career mid season,

1110
00:53:30,199 --> 00:53:31,760
and so it's he might take some time to.

1111
00:53:31,679 --> 00:53:32,480
Speaker 2: Work his way back.

1112
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:35,360
Speaker 1: And by the way, there's still like ten points better

1113
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:37,199
p one hundred posessions with him on the floor, like

1114
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:38,480
but he's he's.

1115
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 2: Still great, like full stop great.

1116
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:45,159
Speaker 3: It's just this guy isn't. This isn't the best of

1117
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:48,400
Jokic right now. And I would retract everything I said

1118
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:51,480
about the defense, about their chances if you could promise me,

1119
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,599
give me one of Gordon, give me Gordon Watson and

1120
00:53:57,039 --> 00:54:00,760
be nice, Johnson and be nice, and Jokic being and

1121
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:02,760
then my concern levels like a one or two.

1122
00:54:03,079 --> 00:54:05,440
Speaker 2: Well that's it for that. So you start.

1123
00:54:05,599 --> 00:54:10,199
Speaker 1: They have a top eleven defense against top ten offenses

1124
00:54:10,639 --> 00:54:13,840
on the season I mentioned before, their starting five has

1125
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,920
only played ten games together. They're in the seventy third

1126
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:20,320
percentile of defensive efficiency when that group's on the court.

1127
00:54:20,639 --> 00:54:22,719
Small sample. Let's expand it a little bit. They're in

1128
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:25,760
the ninety fifth percent tile of defense when Aaron Gordon

1129
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,800
gets to play with Jokic and Jamal Murray. And I

1130
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:31,960
think now you could point to it does feel like

1131
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:34,840
they have more difficult choices to make without a healthy

1132
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,239
Michael Porter Junior there, because at least you could say

1133
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,159
he did feel like a roller coaster on offense. He

1134
00:54:40,199 --> 00:54:42,880
certainly was a roller coaster on defense, but the rebounding

1135
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:46,079
was always there. You're not getting that from Cam Johnson.

1136
00:54:46,159 --> 00:54:49,039
And then he's had better stretches before he's gotten injured,

1137
00:54:49,039 --> 00:54:51,599
but I don't trust him to make any sort of shot.

1138
00:54:52,079 --> 00:54:54,119
I've just reached that point with Cam Johnson, which is

1139
00:54:54,159 --> 00:54:56,199
a weird spot to be in. So now you get

1140
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:58,119
in the push and pull of well, who can you

1141
00:54:58,199 --> 00:55:01,039
sub in there? What would make sense sacrificing too much?

1142
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:04,239
If it's Peyton Watson, What if it's Bruce Brown. I

1143
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:06,519
think you can get away with the way that Cam

1144
00:55:06,599 --> 00:55:09,199
Johnson has played this season. I don't know how much

1145
00:55:09,199 --> 00:55:11,519
you're giving up by just throwing Tim hard If you

1146
00:55:11,559 --> 00:55:14,519
need the offensive element or the spacing, which I think

1147
00:55:14,599 --> 00:55:17,559
is important, I think you can get away sliding Tim

1148
00:55:17,599 --> 00:55:20,000
Hardaway Junior in there. And the sample size isn't huge,

1149
00:55:20,039 --> 00:55:22,440
but I think the numbers on that lineup has largely

1150
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:26,639
been fine. This is all to say when I watch Denver, No,

1151
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:30,079
I don't get the sense nightly that I'm looking at

1152
00:55:30,119 --> 00:55:33,280
this championship juggernaut. We haven't seen the version of the

1153
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:36,920
Nuggets that's supposed to be a juggernaut at least nearly enough.

1154
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:41,239
And I understand that does then in turn lend itself

1155
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:43,199
to the well, this just doesn't feel like their year,

1156
00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:47,400
and I'm just sort of wondering. I feel like, is

1157
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:50,760
Aaron Gordon, are these injuries being treated differently if we're

1158
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:53,199
in the playoffs right now based on how we saw

1159
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:56,840
them handle them in the playoffs last season, and so, yes,

1160
00:55:56,880 --> 00:55:59,480
these are big variables. But then I think that the

1161
00:55:59,519 --> 00:56:02,480
focus it be it's the injuries for me, is not

1162
00:56:02,639 --> 00:56:05,320
is Denver's defense good enough to win a title? Does

1163
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:08,199
Denver have an elite defense? There are certain lineups where

1164
00:56:08,199 --> 00:56:09,920
they could probably get there, But the answer is just no.

1165
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,000
It's they have the best offense in the league. They

1166
00:56:12,039 --> 00:56:14,119
continue to have the best offense in the league on

1167
00:56:14,159 --> 00:56:18,000
the year against top ten defenses, despite Yokic missing a

1168
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:22,800
ton of time, despite inconsistency and scattershot availability from Cam Johnson,

1169
00:56:23,159 --> 00:56:25,519
heck of a job by Jamal Murray helping them navigate

1170
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,280
all of these stretches. I just it's not that I'm

1171
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:31,719
not that there isn't concern. I just think that we've

1172
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,280
swung a little bit too far on the opposite end

1173
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,400
of the of the spectrum to say this just isn't

1174
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:39,719
this just isn't their year. And until you tell me

1175
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:42,119
that Aaron Gordon specifically isn't gonna be on the court

1176
00:56:43,039 --> 00:56:45,639
during a postseason series, I just won't go there. And

1177
00:56:45,639 --> 00:56:48,239
so I'm gonna put since I cited the defense, I'm

1178
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,519
gonna trust that they will be healthier by the time

1179
00:56:50,559 --> 00:56:52,280
we get to the playoffs, and I'm going to put

1180
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,719
my concern level at a two and a half maybe

1181
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,679
a three, And it's just maybe if I had an MD,

1182
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:00,800
I feel more okay, like how these injuries going to

1183
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:02,880
impact like what these guys look like or when they return,

1184
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:04,480
But I don't, so I get to go with a

1185
00:57:04,559 --> 00:57:07,239
two and a half slash three, and I think I'm

1186
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:07,760
around there.

1187
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 3: I'll just say a four because I am very worried

1188
00:57:10,039 --> 00:57:12,480
about Gordon's hamstring and I think that that is just

1189
00:57:12,519 --> 00:57:14,159
like the defining injury.

1190
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:16,400
Speaker 1: For those important Now are you dealing with You were

1191
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,719
dealing with a hamstring injury. Have you recovered yet?

1192
00:57:19,079 --> 00:57:21,440
Speaker 3: Yeah? But it moved to my calf because that's how

1193
00:57:21,480 --> 00:57:24,039
injuries work when you're old is just your compensated and

1194
00:57:24,039 --> 00:57:27,400
then you get hurt somewhere else. So, uh, you know,

1195
00:57:27,559 --> 00:57:30,280
godspeed Aaron Gordon. He's much younger than me and slightly

1196
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:30,920
more athletic.

1197
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:34,920
Speaker 2: Uh so maybe maybe we'll maybe he'll get through it.

1198
00:57:35,159 --> 00:57:37,159
Speaker 1: Does he have more slam dunk titles than you? You

1199
00:57:37,159 --> 00:57:39,159
guys are tied and that how many does you have?

1200
00:57:40,039 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 2: Not enough? That's it's close.

1201
00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:45,440
Speaker 3: I was just gonna say, den when Denver won it's title,

1202
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:47,920
it had the number seventeen defense in the regular season,

1203
00:57:48,159 --> 00:57:51,480
like not a high bar. Fellas like they if they

1204
00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:54,599
get to there or or prove that they have that

1205
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:58,000
slight like level up from that level in the postseason,

1206
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:01,679
I think they're okay.

1207
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 2: Just give me Aaron Gordon back. That's that's what I

1208
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:02,920
think they just.

1209
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:05,480
Speaker 1: I think as Jokic gets better, the two things that

1210
00:58:05,519 --> 00:58:08,559
will improve. Okay, you're not dealing with as many turnovers,

1211
00:58:08,679 --> 00:58:12,119
so your defense doesn't like isn't like you know, throw

1212
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,320
like it workd itself into a tizzy because of that,

1213
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:18,360
and then Kim's rebounding. They're good at ending, not giving

1214
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:20,559
up those second chance opportunities when they're at their peak.

1215
00:58:21,079 --> 00:58:22,639
I will say, though, as of right now, I think

1216
00:58:22,639 --> 00:58:26,119
they're twenty fifth in points slow possession on first chance opportunities.

1217
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:28,840
That is, you can't convince me that's.

1218
00:58:28,639 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 2: Not a problem.

1219
00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:32,599
Speaker 1: I just think that they have enough when they're healthy. Okay,

1220
00:58:32,599 --> 00:58:34,400
the guys that are supposed to be playing. It won't

1221
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,400
be nearly as egregious when all those guys are available.

1222
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 2: All right, do we got three teams left?

1223
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 3: By my account, one of them I've run out of

1224
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:45,920
knits to pick, like I'm not because the one I

1225
00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:48,320
was gonna pick has kind of corrected itself. The other

1226
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:50,719
one I just want you to talk about. So I'm

1227
00:58:50,719 --> 00:58:54,159
gonna get the Thunder out of the way here, and

1228
00:58:54,559 --> 00:58:57,760
you gotta play the hits. It's an oldie, but a goodie. Uh.

1229
00:58:57,960 --> 00:59:00,679
Speaker 2: But the non shaman play enough?

1230
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:04,599
Speaker 3: Oh no, I mean and Uzman Janng was integral to

1231
00:59:04,679 --> 00:59:07,239
their title hopes and they foolishly sent him away, and

1232
00:59:07,239 --> 00:59:09,360
he's gonna be a superstar on the Bucks. It's a

1233
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:13,039
non shame minutes. It's it was still an issue last postseason.

1234
00:59:13,039 --> 00:59:15,119
It wasn't a big enough one to offset all of

1235
00:59:15,159 --> 00:59:20,599
the thunders myriad strengths in other areas. But Jalen Williams

1236
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:24,559
banged up all year, not good relative to the standard

1237
00:59:24,599 --> 00:59:27,559
he's set outside of the most recent stretch of play

1238
00:59:27,599 --> 00:59:30,559
he had before his most recent injury. He looked pretty

1239
00:59:30,599 --> 00:59:34,119
good before that hamstring got him, but coming into the

1240
00:59:34,119 --> 00:59:37,559
season had surgery on his wrist. Shooting thirty one percent

1241
00:59:37,599 --> 00:59:42,440
from deep. The thunders non Shae minutes with Williams on

1242
00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:45,159
the floor this year one hundred and thirteen points per hundred.

1243
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:50,159
That's a thirty sixth percentile figure, which is actually better

1244
00:59:50,199 --> 00:59:51,639
than it was last year. It was one to eleven

1245
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,800
last season. You're still not encouraged by any of those

1246
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:57,039
because those are regular season numbers. The playoffs are harder,

1247
00:59:57,039 --> 01:00:00,280
the competitions better, on and on and on. One thing,

1248
01:00:00,320 --> 01:00:03,679
we can just dismiss the non shame minute concerns because

1249
01:00:03,719 --> 01:00:06,159
the thunder overcame them last year, and also, what else

1250
01:00:06,199 --> 01:00:07,679
are you going to point to unless we just go

1251
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:11,519
to the health well again, I think it's still a thing,

1252
01:00:12,239 --> 01:00:14,519
and I think it's magnified because Williams has had a

1253
01:00:14,599 --> 01:00:18,519
very down, injury plagued season, and if all of those

1254
01:00:18,559 --> 01:00:22,079
other injury concerns don't kind of go away, that just

1255
01:00:22,159 --> 01:00:25,079
makes his job when in the non shave minutes harder

1256
01:00:25,119 --> 01:00:27,679
because he's got less healthy help or you know, it's

1257
01:00:27,679 --> 01:00:30,039
a trickle down thing. So I don't really nowhere else

1258
01:00:30,079 --> 01:00:32,960
to go with the Thunder other than the thing we

1259
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:36,199
talked about last year and have kind of focused on

1260
01:00:36,639 --> 01:00:39,239
when we're looking for flaws with them basically forever.

1261
01:00:40,119 --> 01:00:43,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I look, it's they need. I think j

1262
01:00:43,599 --> 01:00:45,880
Dubb is still the right focus because I don't want

1263
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:47,920
to say they could win the title without him. That's

1264
01:00:48,239 --> 01:00:52,039
a possibility, yeah, but it would be I wouldn't pick

1265
01:00:52,119 --> 01:00:53,800
them to win it if this is going to be

1266
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:55,679
the version they get, or certainly if they're not going

1267
01:00:55,719 --> 01:00:59,519
to have him at all. His mid range efficiency and

1268
01:00:59,559 --> 01:01:01,920
the half cours dropped off by more than ten percentage

1269
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:06,440
points last year in transition, or he was shooting seventy

1270
01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:09,079
two percent in the paint and in the restricted area

1271
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:13,719
sixty percent this year, And I mean then you start

1272
01:01:13,719 --> 01:01:16,079
to dig into it at the Thunder's half court offense

1273
01:01:16,159 --> 01:01:18,800
is still above average overall when Jaydubb plays without Shay,

1274
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:21,079
even though you mentioned they were the thirty six percentile

1275
01:01:21,519 --> 01:01:25,039
overall during those minutes, chet, I thought maybe we'd see

1276
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:27,519
kind of a self created jump from him. We haven't

1277
01:01:27,559 --> 01:01:30,760
necessarily gotten that the efficiency in those areas. He's in

1278
01:01:30,800 --> 01:01:33,800
the twenty first percentile of self created shot making efficiency.

1279
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:37,079
Speaker 2: I don't know. My concern level isn't high.

1280
01:01:37,239 --> 01:01:40,519
Speaker 1: I think when you start to stack these minor issues

1281
01:01:40,559 --> 01:01:42,679
on top of each other. So what Jaydub has looked

1282
01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:45,599
like overall health concerns and then just the fact that

1283
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:50,000
they're not a high volume three point shooting team, and

1284
01:01:50,039 --> 01:01:53,320
they don't. They're almost entirely bereft of what you would

1285
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:55,880
say or knockdown shooters. There's Isaiah Joe and even he

1286
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:58,880
can be be streaky. Other than that, it's like Chet

1287
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:01,559
Holmgren seldom has those games too where it's at the

1288
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:04,079
game that they just won against the Knicks, like that

1289
01:02:04,199 --> 01:02:05,920
was sort of an anomaly for him. When you're looking

1290
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:09,199
at that three point volume and efficiency. So when you

1291
01:02:09,239 --> 01:02:12,719
stack those together, maybe I could get myself to a four.

1292
01:02:13,360 --> 01:02:16,119
Otherwise I'm just kind of at a Jdub's still young.

1293
01:02:16,280 --> 01:02:18,599
I assume he's gonna maybe he never looks like a

1294
01:02:18,639 --> 01:02:21,840
top fifteen NBA player this season. The Thunder probably need

1295
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:25,559
him to be a top fifty or sixty NBA player

1296
01:02:25,559 --> 01:02:28,079
to win the time. Just having JDub on the floor

1297
01:02:28,119 --> 01:02:30,639
because still someone who can do things with the ball

1298
01:02:30,639 --> 01:02:33,320
in his hands, or even having aj Mitchell two would

1299
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:34,119
go a longer way.

1300
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 2: I'll settle in.

1301
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 1: At a three because the stakes are still they it's

1302
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:41,199
a three because they don't look Remember at the beginning

1303
01:02:41,239 --> 01:02:43,320
of the season when we say, oh, they'll all get

1304
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:45,920
into seventy four wins, and they don't look They have

1305
01:02:46,039 --> 01:02:49,840
not looked like that team as often in the intervening months.

1306
01:02:50,159 --> 01:02:52,760
I'm going with a one and there.

1307
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:57,480
Speaker 3: And that's because like even this season, like you just said,

1308
01:02:57,639 --> 01:03:00,079
we've seen them hit a level that nobody hits.

1309
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:02,440
Speaker 2: So it's in there.

1310
01:03:02,599 --> 01:03:06,079
Speaker 3: And and like you said, it's arguable that they don't

1311
01:03:06,079 --> 01:03:09,679
need their second best player to win a championship. That

1312
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:11,519
just speaks to all the other stuff that they do

1313
01:03:11,599 --> 01:03:14,440
so well. They're just it's they They're the favorite. To me.

1314
01:03:14,599 --> 01:03:18,360
I think it's been fun to imagine the Spurs, to

1315
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:21,599
imagine the Pistons and like even Boston, all these other teams.

1316
01:03:21,599 --> 01:03:22,239
Speaker 2: But I just.

1317
01:03:23,639 --> 01:03:26,400
Speaker 3: They still have maybe you know, the guy that's probably

1318
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:29,639
gonna win MVP. They still have the best perimeter defenders

1319
01:03:29,639 --> 01:03:32,800
in the league. It's just they got so much that

1320
01:03:33,639 --> 01:03:36,400
even if this is a major flaw, it's they overcame

1321
01:03:36,440 --> 01:03:39,480
it last year, and so I mean, who's to say

1322
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:43,159
they can't overcome something even more you know pronounced.

1323
01:03:43,159 --> 01:03:44,639
Speaker 2: If Williams like can't.

1324
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:47,519
Speaker 3: Play, or if is he even worse, it's just I

1325
01:03:47,599 --> 01:03:49,519
think there's just gonna be ways for the Thunder to

1326
01:03:49,960 --> 01:03:50,960
solve this stuff.

1327
01:03:51,039 --> 01:03:53,639
Speaker 2: So I'm going only one. I'm gonna give.

1328
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:57,159
Speaker 1: Who wins MVP. If in the event that Shay and

1329
01:03:57,239 --> 01:04:00,559
Yo Kic don't hit sixty five games, I.

1330
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:02,159
Speaker 2: Think it comes down to the wire and it's Cad

1331
01:04:02,239 --> 01:04:02,679
or Wimby.

1332
01:04:03,480 --> 01:04:05,840
Speaker 1: Don't you like Lakers fans are gonna lose their shit

1333
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:08,920
if that happens. I don't, and I don't dis I

1334
01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:11,760
don't disagree with your pick. So I kind of want

1335
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:14,800
to see Lakers, that section of not all Lakers fans.

1336
01:04:14,840 --> 01:04:17,320
I want to see that section of Lakers fandom lose

1337
01:04:17,360 --> 01:04:20,639
their shit because the two top candidates fell out, and

1338
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:22,679
I believe that a ton of them just auto would

1339
01:04:22,719 --> 01:04:25,599
have especially if since Johannis doesn't qualify either, they would

1340
01:04:25,599 --> 01:04:26,800
have Luca penciled into that.

1341
01:04:27,119 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 3: I I like Luca is so far from my I

1342
01:04:31,960 --> 01:04:33,679
know he's leading the league in scoring, and the numbers

1343
01:04:33,679 --> 01:04:36,480
are stupid and whatever. Like I'm trying to think who

1344
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:38,760
else I would pick over him for MVP, just based

1345
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:41,000
on like the total package of his season this year,

1346
01:04:41,039 --> 01:04:42,119
certainly Wimby and Kid.

1347
01:04:42,559 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 2: Then you get into what like who's.

1348
01:04:44,159 --> 01:04:45,079
Speaker 1: The Donovan Mitchell?

1349
01:04:45,159 --> 01:04:49,119
Speaker 2: Probably Mitchell is Anthony Edwards? A thought like I don't.

1350
01:04:49,159 --> 01:04:52,719
I mean that's that's maybe. Are you thinking about John Brunson.

1351
01:04:53,239 --> 01:04:55,880
I mean, I'm thinking conkiniple.

1352
01:04:55,400 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 1: Uh, LaMelo's shot quality, which is but I know means

1353
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:02,440
his own fault is so low it's got to be lamellow.

1354
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 3: We need that stat I know what is like if

1355
01:05:05,960 --> 01:05:07,400
you like who makes it?

1356
01:05:07,400 --> 01:05:08,400
Speaker 2: What what would you call it?

1357
01:05:08,440 --> 01:05:10,159
Speaker 3: There needs to be an acronym for it, for like

1358
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:15,079
self imposed shot quality s I SISK or something.

1359
01:05:15,119 --> 01:05:17,880
Speaker 2: I don't know what it is, all right.

1360
01:05:18,119 --> 01:05:20,159
Speaker 1: Also need a metric for I know they have rim

1361
01:05:20,239 --> 01:05:21,960
de terrence, but there needs to be a different name

1362
01:05:22,000 --> 01:05:25,440
for what Wemby does because I feel as deterrence begins

1363
01:05:25,639 --> 01:05:27,440
as soon as they cross half court.

1364
01:05:27,599 --> 01:05:29,639
Speaker 2: We they needs it. That stat needs a name.

1365
01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:32,760
Speaker 3: I think it needs to be able to You need

1366
01:05:32,760 --> 01:05:35,199
to be able to abbreviate it with fear like f E.

1367
01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:42,800
Speaker 2: A or like forced exit around the rim? Or around

1368
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:44,480
the rim?

1369
01:05:45,559 --> 01:05:46,800
Speaker 1: Could you have done it with alien?

1370
01:05:47,199 --> 01:05:56,880
Speaker 2: Would have been a long interior excellent? Uh netminder? How's

1371
01:05:56,920 --> 01:05:59,440
that pretty good? It's not as good as your fear.

1372
01:05:59,480 --> 01:06:03,360
It's a hockey. I would nominate then, because I don't

1373
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:03,880
want to do it.

1374
01:06:04,280 --> 01:06:07,719
Speaker 1: Okay, I'll nominate the Wolves. I'll nominate the Knicks. So

1375
01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:11,559
my concern I think people are gonna be inclined to

1376
01:06:11,599 --> 01:06:15,719
focus on the defense. I'm not going to they do have.

1377
01:06:15,760 --> 01:06:17,440
I would just like to note they are one of

1378
01:06:17,440 --> 01:06:19,199
the teams that rank in the top ten of both

1379
01:06:19,239 --> 01:06:20,119
offense and defense.

1380
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:22,159
Speaker 2: That also holds true.

1381
01:06:22,599 --> 01:06:24,559
Speaker 1: I believe they join I haven't checked this in a

1382
01:06:24,559 --> 01:06:27,519
couple of days, but I believe they joined the Pistons

1383
01:06:27,679 --> 01:06:30,519
as the only team that ranks in the top ten

1384
01:06:30,599 --> 01:06:33,440
still of both sides of the ball when facing other

1385
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:34,800
top ten teams.

1386
01:06:35,119 --> 01:06:38,440
Speaker 2: So I love the top ten stats. I'm not saying

1387
01:06:38,519 --> 01:06:40,800
the Knicks should be favorites to win the title. I'm

1388
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:43,320
not not saying I am actually saying they shouldn't be favorites.

1389
01:06:43,880 --> 01:06:45,639
I look at their I.

1390
01:06:45,559 --> 01:06:48,360
Speaker 1: Don't even want to say it's their offense, but they're

1391
01:06:48,400 --> 01:06:52,000
starting five. The data is a lot better on it

1392
01:06:52,039 --> 01:06:55,199
this season than it was last year, and even that

1393
01:06:55,480 --> 01:06:57,159
a lot might be doing a lot of work at

1394
01:06:57,159 --> 01:07:00,639
this point because the margin is slowly shrinking, the offense

1395
01:07:00,719 --> 01:07:05,159
isn't nearly dynamic. I saw. I've seen people say that

1396
01:07:05,360 --> 01:07:07,760
a lot of Knicks fans thought the Knicks figured out

1397
01:07:07,960 --> 01:07:10,400
how to use Josh Hart against these pack to paint defenses.

1398
01:07:10,400 --> 01:07:13,920
They're just gonna have him screen that last year. Right,

1399
01:07:13,960 --> 01:07:16,519
It's okay, and it doesn't. It works to an extent.

1400
01:07:16,559 --> 01:07:18,920
But if you're having Josh Hart screen here are the

1401
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:22,039
two primary trickle down effects, then you can't play him

1402
01:07:22,079 --> 01:07:24,119
with Mitchell Robinson. And the numbers with him and Mitchell

1403
01:07:24,159 --> 01:07:26,880
Robinson have actually, I've actually been really good. But if

1404
01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:29,360
you're not having Mitchell Robinson screen like, it's just not

1405
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:32,639
gonna work. Josh Hart hanging in the dunker spot does

1406
01:07:33,119 --> 01:07:36,000
very little for me. The other thing, if you have

1407
01:07:36,079 --> 01:07:40,280
him screening, you're now neutering Karl Anthony Towns is already

1408
01:07:40,320 --> 01:07:44,159
Topsy Turvey offensive usage even further so, it's yes, have

1409
01:07:44,280 --> 01:07:47,199
it in the tool belt, but it's a bigger deal

1410
01:07:47,280 --> 01:07:50,599
that I think Mike Brown needs to be quicker with well,

1411
01:07:50,880 --> 01:07:53,559
can he's he hasn't had Josh Hart close some games.

1412
01:07:53,599 --> 01:07:55,480
To his credit, he's gone with Landry. He went with

1413
01:07:55,559 --> 01:07:58,320
Landry Shammittt. I believe against the Thunder he'll have another

1414
01:07:58,639 --> 01:08:00,280
kind of tool in his belt. Wants to use me

1415
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:03,400
bride returns. But there's just something about the offense because

1416
01:08:03,400 --> 01:08:07,039
even if you remove Oh, teams won't guard Josh Hart.

1417
01:08:07,039 --> 01:08:08,639
What is the offense? How many minutes can you get

1418
01:08:08,639 --> 01:08:10,039
away with him? How many minutes a youre willing to

1419
01:08:10,039 --> 01:08:13,039
not play him in those instances? You then start to

1420
01:08:13,079 --> 01:08:15,960
have these other concerns to where it's just like who

1421
01:08:16,119 --> 01:08:24,079
is the Knicks' second best player? A default, but they

1422
01:08:24,079 --> 01:08:27,079
probably need it to be Karl Anthony Towns and just

1423
01:08:26,560 --> 01:08:29,600
the self creative stuff from Towns. This year has been

1424
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,359
better lately. He's passing out of more of his drives.

1425
01:08:32,800 --> 01:08:35,439
Those are good things. He's never passed out of his drive.

1426
01:08:35,520 --> 01:08:37,399
So I'm just skeptical as to how much that's going

1427
01:08:37,439 --> 01:08:43,800
to hold their absence of a number two. It sometimes

1428
01:08:43,840 --> 01:08:46,840
worries me more than like what the Detroit Pistons have,

1429
01:08:46,960 --> 01:08:50,439
because the Pistons have a very clear thing. Kay Cunningham

1430
01:08:50,479 --> 01:08:52,920
and Jaalen Dern and they will if you let them

1431
01:08:53,239 --> 01:08:56,720
get into that two man chemistry, they will annihilate you

1432
01:08:56,800 --> 01:09:00,560
with it. The Knicks do not have, aside from Jail Brunson,

1433
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:03,960
go do this. That is the knickses define. Yes, they

1434
01:09:03,960 --> 01:09:05,720
do other stuff in their offense. I'm not trying to

1435
01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:08,640
say that the agency that players have to bring the

1436
01:09:08,680 --> 01:09:11,199
ball up to court. There's definitely more leeway there. I

1437
01:09:11,239 --> 01:09:13,800
do feel like we've seen anecdotally, don't have numbers on it,

1438
01:09:14,039 --> 01:09:16,560
more half court movement, the things that Mike Brown is

1439
01:09:16,600 --> 01:09:19,880
just willing to try playing Muhammad Diar, mixing and matching

1440
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:22,000
all these different lineups, like seeing what works in the

1441
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:25,239
regular season, potentially to the detriment of their record.

1442
01:09:25,720 --> 01:09:26,840
Speaker 2: I can applaud all of that.

1443
01:09:27,800 --> 01:09:32,680
Speaker 1: The oversimplification is who is the Knicks' second best player

1444
01:09:32,720 --> 01:09:34,680
and are they good or not? Or are they do

1445
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:37,520
they have a number two option on offense, a viable

1446
01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:41,239
number two option, and it can't be by committee.

1447
01:09:41,439 --> 01:09:42,000
Speaker 2: I just won't.

1448
01:09:42,039 --> 01:09:44,039
Speaker 1: I won't accept that answer. And it also can't be

1449
01:09:44,199 --> 01:09:46,760
on some nights Karl and the Towns is that guy.

1450
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:47,880
Speaker 2: If kntee Towns.

1451
01:09:47,680 --> 01:09:51,000
Speaker 1: Isn't gonna be that guy seventy five percent of the time,

1452
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:53,880
you're going to have an issue, and so I think

1453
01:09:53,960 --> 01:09:57,000
that's their biggest concern for me is just what are

1454
01:09:57,039 --> 01:10:00,359
their counters on the offensive end to these defense is

1455
01:10:00,600 --> 01:10:02,680
when you look at the Pistons, when you've even seen

1456
01:10:02,720 --> 01:10:05,800
a little bit of it with Boston san Antonio. I

1457
01:10:05,840 --> 01:10:09,119
know they've played san Antonio well, but Cleveland, like these

1458
01:10:09,159 --> 01:10:12,359
teams that have forced them their offense into stretches to

1459
01:10:12,359 --> 01:10:14,800
where it hasn't always looked great. What are the counters

1460
01:10:14,800 --> 01:10:17,000
to that in the plot? Do you have enough counters

1461
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:19,039
to that? And I honestly don't know the answer.

1462
01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:23,520
Speaker 3: I think that that's a really interesting angle of approach

1463
01:10:23,600 --> 01:10:26,760
because because my first thought is, well, they have several counters,

1464
01:10:26,760 --> 01:10:28,880
but you're you're right that it can't be by committee.

1465
01:10:28,880 --> 01:10:32,800
So while it's valuable that Mitchell Robinson will probably win

1466
01:10:32,880 --> 01:10:35,279
you a game in any given series just because he

1467
01:10:35,760 --> 01:10:38,279
gets that many offensive rebounds that turn into threes, like

1468
01:10:38,319 --> 01:10:41,000
that's okay, he got one that way, And Brunson's great

1469
01:10:41,119 --> 01:10:44,119
enough at the do it all yourself to where maybe

1470
01:10:44,119 --> 01:10:46,199
he gets you one and a half wins, you know,

1471
01:10:46,239 --> 01:10:48,760
in a given series or two, and then it's like

1472
01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:51,880
where's it coming from? Otherwise, Towns is as likely to

1473
01:10:51,880 --> 01:10:54,359
torpedo a game as he is to help you win it, right,

1474
01:10:54,399 --> 01:10:57,000
so the same, it's kind of I think that that's well.

1475
01:10:56,880 --> 01:10:57,439
Speaker 2: Observed I.

1476
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:02,159
Speaker 3: And I think maybe what it's reflective of is the

1477
01:11:02,239 --> 01:11:07,079
Knicks are really good, but the ceiling just doesn't quite

1478
01:11:07,199 --> 01:11:12,199
reach high enough because they don't have that second guy

1479
01:11:12,960 --> 01:11:16,840
that is a reliable enough source of like every night

1480
01:11:17,159 --> 01:11:18,199
help for Brunson.

1481
01:11:18,279 --> 01:11:20,840
Speaker 2: I think that's really interesting. I think that it's a note.

1482
01:11:20,960 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 1: By the way, okay, because I just don't as good

1483
01:11:23,880 --> 01:11:26,359
as they can look at points, and even you know,

1484
01:11:26,399 --> 01:11:29,159
they've shown their defense, they have the league's best defense.

1485
01:11:29,159 --> 01:11:31,119
Like the last quarter of the season, they've gotten very

1486
01:11:31,199 --> 01:11:32,560
lucky on opponent three point shooting.

1487
01:11:32,640 --> 01:11:33,359
Speaker 2: During that stretch.

1488
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:37,199
Speaker 1: They have had games where opponents have outshot them from

1489
01:11:37,199 --> 01:11:39,439
three and they've still kind of defended well. But you

1490
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,319
even kind of look at their record if they're shooting

1491
01:11:42,640 --> 01:11:45,600
below league gaverage from three, I haven't looked at this,

1492
01:11:45,680 --> 01:11:47,800
so I'm just gonna guess. I would guess they're winning

1493
01:11:47,840 --> 01:11:51,840
percentage last year or even the year before was way

1494
01:11:51,960 --> 01:11:55,159
higher when they shot below league average from three than

1495
01:11:55,199 --> 01:11:57,439
they do this year. It's just they seem so relying

1496
01:11:57,520 --> 01:12:00,560
on it in part because you don't have that's the

1497
01:12:00,640 --> 01:12:04,720
high variants shot when you don't have another number two guy,

1498
01:12:05,079 --> 01:12:08,359
and it's yeah, there they are all like Karnthy Towns,

1499
01:12:08,439 --> 01:12:11,920
Mikal Bridges, og An Andobi do elements of it, but

1500
01:12:11,960 --> 01:12:14,119
it's all. You need it all in a fuller package,

1501
01:12:14,199 --> 01:12:16,520
or at least a more consistent package, which I just

1502
01:12:16,560 --> 01:12:18,840
don't think they're gonna get. And so that's a nine

1503
01:12:18,880 --> 01:12:22,079
for me. And maybe that overlooks some of the defensive concerns.

1504
01:12:22,119 --> 01:12:24,800
But if you have a team that's built around Jalen

1505
01:12:24,800 --> 01:12:28,239
Brunton and Karl Anthony Towns, I like you're supposed to

1506
01:12:28,319 --> 01:12:30,960
be unsolvable on the off. That's what you've decided you're

1507
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:34,720
going to be. I don't get that unsolvable vibe from

1508
01:12:34,760 --> 01:12:37,600
the mix. And it goes beyond to be clear just

1509
01:12:37,640 --> 01:12:40,760
how defenses are going to treat Josh hard and it's

1510
01:12:40,920 --> 01:12:43,199
they're gonna treat him that way even if he shoots

1511
01:12:43,520 --> 01:12:45,560
four to seven from three. They don't. He's hit more

1512
01:12:45,560 --> 01:12:48,199
of his wide open threes this year, he's still below

1513
01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:51,720
thirty six percent on catching shoot threes for the season.

1514
01:12:51,800 --> 01:12:53,439
Speaker 2: Defenses don't like they're not gonna care.

1515
01:12:53,960 --> 01:12:57,159
Speaker 3: He's a great example of of like the percentage matters

1516
01:12:57,279 --> 01:13:01,000
until it doesn't, because he could go if in game

1517
01:13:01,039 --> 01:13:04,319
one of a series he goes five for eight from three,

1518
01:13:04,920 --> 01:13:07,399
the defense will not treat him any differently the next night,

1519
01:13:07,479 --> 01:13:10,960
Like that won't change the scheme. I don't think. Maybe

1520
01:13:11,000 --> 01:13:15,359
if he does it twice, that's that's like the tipping point.

1521
01:13:15,399 --> 01:13:18,039
But yeah, I do want to talk you know, you

1522
01:13:18,079 --> 01:13:21,560
talked about the the brown or around the Brunson cat

1523
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:24,439
pick and roll on offense. Suppose it should be unsolvable

1524
01:13:24,439 --> 01:13:28,560
and it's not. I do want to discuss what I

1525
01:13:28,640 --> 01:13:30,880
was gonna focus on until, like most of the Knicks

1526
01:13:30,880 --> 01:13:33,119
defensive numbers just got so good that it felt silly

1527
01:13:33,439 --> 01:13:36,800
the other end of the floor, where like I really

1528
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:39,600
do think one of my favorite parts of the postseason

1529
01:13:39,680 --> 01:13:42,680
is teams X and Y show up with their game

1530
01:13:42,680 --> 01:13:46,159
plans and they kind of showy. They go out there

1531
01:13:46,199 --> 01:13:49,600
doing what worked, and then as the series progresses, you

1532
01:13:49,680 --> 01:13:52,640
find out what does and doesn't work, and there's adjustments, encounters,

1533
01:13:52,680 --> 01:13:55,560
and eventually you're playing a series that maybe doesn't look

1534
01:13:56,000 --> 01:13:58,119
like what you hoped it would, but this is just

1535
01:13:58,159 --> 01:14:01,600
where you are now and to me with Brunson and

1536
01:14:01,640 --> 01:14:05,640
with kat as attackable options in pick and roll defense,

1537
01:14:06,439 --> 01:14:08,399
My thought was that teams are gonna come into series

1538
01:14:08,439 --> 01:14:10,720
against the Knicks on offense knowing exactly what they want

1539
01:14:10,760 --> 01:14:12,880
to do, and some of the numbers are not good,

1540
01:14:13,000 --> 01:14:17,119
like Rollman thirty seven percentile. The Knicks defend Rollman at

1541
01:14:17,159 --> 01:14:20,199
a rate or allows scoring by Rollman in the thirty

1542
01:14:20,199 --> 01:14:22,760
seventh percentile, it's twenty seventh for ball handlers.

1543
01:14:22,560 --> 01:14:23,399
Speaker 2: It's bad.

1544
01:14:24,359 --> 01:14:29,079
Speaker 3: Why isn't the concern just that offenses in the playoffs

1545
01:14:29,560 --> 01:14:32,279
can pick on those two guys and the Knicks don't

1546
01:14:32,279 --> 01:14:36,800
really have a fix for it. And again, the defensive

1547
01:14:36,880 --> 01:14:38,680
numbers have been good enough to where it's like, is

1548
01:14:38,680 --> 01:14:41,039
that really what you're gonna talk about? But that just

1549
01:14:41,079 --> 01:14:44,720
strikes me as tactically where you would start as another team,

1550
01:14:44,760 --> 01:14:48,079
And why why should we believe the Knicks can overcome

1551
01:14:48,119 --> 01:14:49,000
that on defense?

1552
01:14:49,800 --> 01:14:53,800
Speaker 1: I if they get into a situation to where that

1553
01:14:53,880 --> 01:14:58,119
can consistently be attacked, they can't, right, But I think

1554
01:14:58,119 --> 01:15:01,079
that they've done a good job doing think is And

1555
01:15:01,359 --> 01:15:03,439
there's been a lot of talk recently about their shading

1556
01:15:03,479 --> 01:15:07,039
teams more towards the baseline that can make it harder

1557
01:15:07,079 --> 01:15:08,600
to attack that. I think what they've done a really

1558
01:15:08,600 --> 01:15:12,119
good job of all season is Jalen Brunton, like having

1559
01:15:12,199 --> 01:15:15,079
him be cross matched with anyone that allows him to

1560
01:15:15,119 --> 01:15:16,319
be the low man, and so if you want to

1561
01:15:16,319 --> 01:15:18,359
try and go after Jalen Brunson, it's gonna take more

1562
01:15:18,439 --> 01:15:21,680
work to get to him. Mike Brown has gotten the

1563
01:15:22,000 --> 01:15:24,079
unit I want to see more of, Like the staggering

1564
01:15:24,119 --> 01:15:26,760
patterns with them I think can help too. A lineup

1565
01:15:26,800 --> 01:15:28,520
I want to see more of is Jalen Brunson with

1566
01:15:28,880 --> 01:15:33,479
Modio War, Jose Alvarado, Ogan and Obi and then Robinson.

1567
01:15:33,479 --> 01:15:35,199
I would say they just throw a bunch of defensive

1568
01:15:35,239 --> 01:15:38,680
dogs around Jalen bruns in, but I think what we've

1569
01:15:38,680 --> 01:15:42,840
also seen from Towns and the data on the rim

1570
01:15:42,880 --> 01:15:46,520
attempts that he's contesting during this span when the Knicks's

1571
01:15:46,560 --> 01:15:49,840
defensive shift kind of happened, what also happened was, well,

1572
01:15:49,880 --> 01:15:52,640
they're not asking Karl Anthony Towns to be the traditional

1573
01:15:52,720 --> 01:15:56,359
rim protector as often anymore, and I think there's just

1574
01:15:56,439 --> 01:15:59,079
more chaos if he's coming up higher and he just

1575
01:15:59,119 --> 01:16:01,840
seems more in aged when he has to beat, Like

1576
01:16:01,880 --> 01:16:04,439
if you involve Klarl Anthony Towns in the action. I

1577
01:16:04,479 --> 01:16:07,560
actually think and he's up high, he's going to be

1578
01:16:07,560 --> 01:16:10,119
better off because just like the way he tries to

1579
01:16:10,199 --> 01:16:12,159
keep pace with players are just how engaged he is.

1580
01:16:12,199 --> 01:16:14,119
Not always gonna end well. Guys are gonna get by him.

1581
01:16:14,119 --> 01:16:17,399
He's gonna he's gonna found people. Yeah, but I'd prefer

1582
01:16:17,479 --> 01:16:19,880
that than to, like, let's funnel anyone towards the middle

1583
01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:22,560
cat where cats and drop or cats hanging around the basket.

1584
01:16:22,800 --> 01:16:24,399
Speaker 2: I'd rather have. I'd rather have.

1585
01:16:24,399 --> 01:16:26,680
Speaker 1: Jaylen Brunson as the low man than Karl Anthony Towns.

1586
01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:30,439
Speaker 2: He's gonna take fourteen, Yeah.

1587
01:16:30,319 --> 01:16:33,560
Speaker 1: So I I don't know that that's like, I don't

1588
01:16:33,600 --> 01:16:35,800
know that that should make you or anyone else specifically

1589
01:16:35,840 --> 01:16:38,279
feel better about it. But I think that they've circumvented

1590
01:16:38,319 --> 01:16:41,920
it enough. But it's also let's see it in the playoffs,

1591
01:16:41,960 --> 01:16:43,560
and it's if now you have to go up against

1592
01:16:43,800 --> 01:16:47,479
who is better or more prone in the league to

1593
01:16:47,640 --> 01:16:51,680
trying to suss out a mismatch than James Harden, who's

1594
01:16:51,680 --> 01:16:55,159
now in your conference, it's maybe Luca will like get bogged.

1595
01:16:54,920 --> 01:16:55,479
Speaker 2: Down into that.

1596
01:16:55,680 --> 01:16:59,479
Speaker 1: So well, we'll see what I mean. Their defense is

1597
01:16:59,840 --> 01:17:02,720
the numbers are cool, I'm gonnat, but like, can they

1598
01:17:02,760 --> 01:17:05,479
reach and maintain that level in the playoffs when all

1599
01:17:05,479 --> 01:17:07,079
you're facing is top ten teams?

1600
01:17:07,119 --> 01:17:09,439
Speaker 3: Basically, Yeah, No, I think that's a good answer. That's

1601
01:17:09,640 --> 01:17:11,600
I mean, that's why I kind of backed off of

1602
01:17:11,640 --> 01:17:13,920
it as the main concern is that I think the

1603
01:17:13,920 --> 01:17:15,600
main thing that you pointed out is just that, like

1604
01:17:15,640 --> 01:17:19,439
teams are good enough now when in the Knixt case,

1605
01:17:19,520 --> 01:17:21,840
for example, to just figure out how to keep those

1606
01:17:21,880 --> 01:17:25,800
guys out of actions together, like there's enough pre switching.

1607
01:17:25,399 --> 01:17:26,640
Speaker 2: You can do and all that stuff.

1608
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:29,159
Speaker 3: It's still maybe the bigger concern though, as you as

1609
01:17:29,199 --> 01:17:32,399
you mentioned, it is just a team just ISO hunts

1610
01:17:32,560 --> 01:17:35,039
one or the other, and that's a lot harder to

1611
01:17:35,119 --> 01:17:37,479
keep guys out of actions. If if it's just like

1612
01:17:37,600 --> 01:17:40,600
let's find this guy and call him up and see

1613
01:17:40,600 --> 01:17:42,600
if he can if it's brunts and for example, or

1614
01:17:42,800 --> 01:17:44,960
and probably teams should just do that against Brunson all

1615
01:17:44,960 --> 01:17:46,960
the time to wear him down, because then that gets

1616
01:17:46,960 --> 01:17:49,439
into the other thing that you mentioned about if he's

1617
01:17:49,520 --> 01:17:52,039
not doing everything on offense, or if you're forcing it

1618
01:17:52,079 --> 01:17:53,760
out of his hands all the time too, like who's

1619
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:55,359
gonna who are you that afraid?

1620
01:17:55,399 --> 01:17:58,800
Speaker 2: Of on the Knicks from a scoring perspective, not many.

1621
01:17:59,520 --> 01:18:01,079
Speaker 1: So i't a nine on mine.

1622
01:18:01,640 --> 01:18:05,479
Speaker 2: You give it, I'll give it like a seven.

1623
01:18:06,000 --> 01:18:08,960
Speaker 3: We've seen the Knicks kind of overcome that to some

1624
01:18:09,119 --> 01:18:11,960
extent in recent postseasons, but it's still I mean, that's

1625
01:18:12,000 --> 01:18:12,880
still pretty high.

1626
01:18:13,159 --> 01:18:15,159
Speaker 2: We have one art. Who's our final?

1627
01:18:15,199 --> 01:18:16,760
Speaker 1: It's your pick, it is.

1628
01:18:18,199 --> 01:18:19,119
Speaker 2: It's the Timberwolves.

1629
01:18:20,520 --> 01:18:22,920
Speaker 3: What I when I wrote about this, what I went

1630
01:18:22,960 --> 01:18:25,319
with was that they were I think it was thirteen.

1631
01:18:25,359 --> 01:18:27,439
They're twelve and fourteen at the time against teams with

1632
01:18:27,439 --> 01:18:29,439
winning records, and so I just using that as a

1633
01:18:29,479 --> 01:18:32,079
proxy for the type of competition they'll see in the playoffs.

1634
01:18:32,600 --> 01:18:34,399
Speaker 2: Haven't seen enough generally.

1635
01:18:34,520 --> 01:18:37,720
Speaker 3: I looked it up and the last several champions, you know,

1636
01:18:37,800 --> 01:18:40,479
going from Oka See to Boston to Denver and on

1637
01:18:40,560 --> 01:18:43,600
back farther, they're always just you know, twenty five and

1638
01:18:43,720 --> 01:18:46,439
ten or whatever against teams with winning records. That it

1639
01:18:46,479 --> 01:18:49,560
does bear out that how you perform against teams that

1640
01:18:49,600 --> 01:18:52,119
are five hundred or better during the regular season really

1641
01:18:52,159 --> 01:18:55,800
does shocker impact how well you fare against the very

1642
01:18:55,800 --> 01:18:58,119
good teams you see in the playoffs. The Wolves are

1643
01:18:58,159 --> 01:19:01,319
now sixteen and fifteen. That's not likechampionship caliber, but it's

1644
01:19:01,720 --> 01:19:04,000
now you're winning more often than not against winning teams,

1645
01:19:04,399 --> 01:19:05,840
and if you want to throw in the peaking at

1646
01:19:05,840 --> 01:19:07,800
the right time cliche, I think that's starting to apply

1647
01:19:08,239 --> 01:19:09,000
to them as well.

1648
01:19:09,600 --> 01:19:10,560
Speaker 2: This is a weird team.

1649
01:19:10,600 --> 01:19:15,319
Speaker 3: We've talked about them in the context of like, why

1650
01:19:15,359 --> 01:19:18,319
not kind of conversation when you're talking about a champion

1651
01:19:18,600 --> 01:19:20,000
two straight conference finals.

1652
01:19:20,359 --> 01:19:21,720
Speaker 2: Go bear anchors the defense.

1653
01:19:22,159 --> 01:19:26,840
Speaker 3: His playoff usefulness or lack of playoff usefulness on defense

1654
01:19:26,880 --> 01:19:29,560
has been wildly overstated. I guess you could point to,

1655
01:19:30,119 --> 01:19:32,359
is their offense good enough with him on the floor

1656
01:19:32,760 --> 01:19:36,960
to win the fourth playoff series? It'll take their fifty

1657
01:19:37,000 --> 01:19:40,439
eighth percentile overall with him, The best lineups are sixty fifth,

1658
01:19:40,479 --> 01:19:43,239
seventy first, ninetieth percentile on offense with Gobert on.

1659
01:19:43,199 --> 01:19:48,319
Speaker 2: The floor, pretty encouraging. Edwards is a kind of playoff

1660
01:19:48,359 --> 01:19:50,800
proven guy. The role players make sense.

1661
01:19:51,680 --> 01:19:55,760
Speaker 3: We could go with the secondary creation stuff. The Vincenzo's

1662
01:19:55,800 --> 01:19:58,760
not a point guard. You're a little reliant on Julius Randall.

1663
01:19:58,880 --> 01:20:01,199
Unless you think Bones Highland is going to really continue

1664
01:20:01,199 --> 01:20:02,840
to be a source of offense.

1665
01:20:03,279 --> 01:20:04,640
Speaker 2: I guess if I.

1666
01:20:04,680 --> 01:20:08,960
Speaker 3: Had to lean somewhere it would be the offense. But

1667
01:20:09,000 --> 01:20:10,880
we've done that for like four of these teams, so

1668
01:20:10,920 --> 01:20:13,279
I'm hesitant to go that way. But that's all to

1669
01:20:13,319 --> 01:20:15,720
say that the Wolves, for a team that hasn't actually

1670
01:20:15,760 --> 01:20:18,279
won anything, and for a team that has had ups

1671
01:20:18,319 --> 01:20:21,079
and downs in each of the last three regular seasons

1672
01:20:21,079 --> 01:20:24,439
that have caused us to like dismount the bandwagon very

1673
01:20:24,520 --> 01:20:25,199
quickly and then.

1674
01:20:25,159 --> 01:20:26,920
Speaker 2: See if we can catch back up to it just

1675
01:20:26,960 --> 01:20:30,920
as fast. I'm not I have a weird amount of

1676
01:20:30,920 --> 01:20:32,119
faith in Minnesota.

1677
01:20:32,439 --> 01:20:35,560
Speaker 3: I think do you feel the same way where it's yeah,

1678
01:20:35,840 --> 01:20:38,960
you gotta do some real squinting and real stretching to

1679
01:20:39,119 --> 01:20:42,840
find a fatal flaw or something that feels like a

1680
01:20:42,840 --> 01:20:46,119
fatal flaw unless you truly and maybe this is it

1681
01:20:46,279 --> 01:20:49,680
just offensively at the end of games, they just bogged

1682
01:20:49,720 --> 01:20:52,000
down sometimes and it's a mess, and that's going to

1683
01:20:52,039 --> 01:20:52,600
be a problem.

1684
01:20:52,960 --> 01:20:56,159
Speaker 2: But this team is there's a lot to like here.

1685
01:20:56,880 --> 01:20:58,359
I don't know. I don't know what else to say

1686
01:20:58,399 --> 01:20:59,880
with them. What are your thoughts?

1687
01:21:00,359 --> 01:21:03,239
Speaker 1: I was gonna go with the reliance on Rudy Gobert

1688
01:21:03,239 --> 01:21:06,000
defensively because what if there is a matchup to where

1689
01:21:06,199 --> 01:21:10,760
his offense and if Julius Randall's not having a great game, Like,

1690
01:21:11,399 --> 01:21:12,560
how do you accommodate that?

1691
01:21:12,600 --> 01:21:13,000
Speaker 2: You can't?

1692
01:21:13,039 --> 01:21:15,479
Speaker 1: You just decided Julius Randalls the one we're not gonna play. No,

1693
01:21:15,600 --> 01:21:17,359
it might be well, how many minutes are we gonna

1694
01:21:17,359 --> 01:21:20,079
be able to get out of Rudy Gobert there? And

1695
01:21:20,239 --> 01:21:22,079
is your defense built to hold up after that? Because

1696
01:21:22,119 --> 01:21:24,880
they are like thirteen points better per one hundred posessions

1697
01:21:24,880 --> 01:21:27,479
when he's on the court defensively, and the fact that

1698
01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:30,199
there's seven points per one hundred persons worse offensively with

1699
01:21:30,279 --> 01:21:32,439
him on the court. He is still just a decidedly

1700
01:21:32,920 --> 01:21:35,720
not positive And it's funny that because I'm with you

1701
01:21:35,760 --> 01:21:37,600
that we spend a lot of time talking about the

1702
01:21:37,640 --> 01:21:39,880
secondary ball handling, how much the ball needs to be

1703
01:21:39,920 --> 01:21:41,640
in ants hands, what happens in crunch time?

1704
01:21:41,680 --> 01:21:41,920
Speaker 2: Is it?

1705
01:21:42,600 --> 01:21:44,640
Speaker 1: I think I owe as someone who could help, like

1706
01:21:44,720 --> 01:21:46,840
kind of a pace changer, and like that, the Wolf's

1707
01:21:46,840 --> 01:21:49,239
second unit feels like it might be playing faster lately.

1708
01:21:49,279 --> 01:21:51,800
You look at what Dante DiVincenzo could do the season

1709
01:21:51,800 --> 01:21:56,039
that Bones Highland is having. Who are there above average

1710
01:21:56,039 --> 01:21:59,960
defenders on this team? There are Rudy Gobert and Jay

1711
01:22:00,119 --> 01:22:04,840
McDaniels and then Anthony Edwards sometimes when he needs to be, Yeah, when.

1712
01:22:04,680 --> 01:22:05,239
Speaker 2: He needs to be.

1713
01:22:05,279 --> 01:22:08,039
Speaker 1: And so maybe because that is sixty percent of your

1714
01:22:08,039 --> 01:22:11,760
starting lineup, it's just or preferred closing unit. It's a

1715
01:22:11,760 --> 01:22:14,920
non issue. And it's not like Dante DiVincenzo is a sieve.

1716
01:22:15,560 --> 01:22:19,399
So but this isn't a team that like their defensive

1717
01:22:19,439 --> 01:22:22,560
identity to me is just very much Rudy Gobert. Still

1718
01:22:22,800 --> 01:22:25,720
at this point, you could sense moments when you're watching

1719
01:22:25,720 --> 01:22:28,359
the Wolves that the guys re guarding on the perimeter

1720
01:22:28,640 --> 01:22:32,119
seem like they forget Rudy Gobert is not behind them

1721
01:22:32,279 --> 01:22:34,039
with kind of the angles that they're rushering in, and

1722
01:22:34,039 --> 01:22:36,119
there could be these open pathways to the basket.

1723
01:22:36,760 --> 01:22:38,279
Speaker 2: That's just my biggest concern.

1724
01:22:38,560 --> 01:22:41,520
Speaker 1: And maybe it shouldn't be because you're not going like

1725
01:22:41,560 --> 01:22:43,600
because my concern le one might actually be pretty low,

1726
01:22:43,680 --> 01:22:46,199
because the best version of the Wolves, regardless of how

1727
01:22:46,199 --> 01:22:49,840
you feel about Rudy Gobert, includes Rudy Gobert. And so

1728
01:22:49,880 --> 01:22:52,399
if you're worried about their reliance on it's sort of saying, man,

1729
01:22:52,439 --> 01:22:55,119
I'm worried about how but I guess it's could you

1730
01:22:55,159 --> 01:22:58,119
say or Is it not the same that because the

1731
01:22:58,239 --> 01:23:00,439
we're worried about the Pistons is over to dependence on

1732
01:23:00,520 --> 01:23:03,880
Ky Cunningham. Can you frame it the same way on defense?

1733
01:23:04,000 --> 01:23:07,319
Or is it overdependence on offense is more dangerous than

1734
01:23:07,319 --> 01:23:08,880
an overdependence on defense.

1735
01:23:09,319 --> 01:23:13,239
Speaker 3: I think that's an interesting way to think of it.

1736
01:23:13,640 --> 01:23:17,680
I guess I am more just generally, if you take

1737
01:23:17,720 --> 01:23:20,800
the Gobert specifics out of it, I think I'm probably

1738
01:23:20,840 --> 01:23:23,439
more concerned with the team, like the Pistons that just

1739
01:23:24,640 --> 01:23:27,880
if it's not this one guy, where's the offense coming from?

1740
01:23:28,399 --> 01:23:34,199
Because defensively, I guess in theory, you know, if let's say, man,

1741
01:23:34,239 --> 01:23:37,840
it's tough to put a defensive lineup out there without Gobert,

1742
01:23:37,840 --> 01:23:39,760
that you feel good about, right, Because if it's like

1743
01:23:39,840 --> 01:23:44,000
Reid at center, not great, that's a real concern. Even

1744
01:23:44,039 --> 01:23:46,680
if McDaniels and Edwards can kind of turn some of

1745
01:23:46,720 --> 01:23:49,159
the perimeter water off, that's no way to live. So

1746
01:23:49,479 --> 01:23:52,279
maybe what we're arriving at is really just the importance

1747
01:23:52,319 --> 01:23:54,640
of Rudy Gobert is concerning.

1748
01:23:55,800 --> 01:23:57,159
Speaker 2: But then is that even fair?

1749
01:23:57,520 --> 01:23:59,800
Speaker 1: Like because could you just is the importance of Julius

1750
01:24:00,159 --> 01:24:02,760
no more concerning it? Here's the deal that he's had

1751
01:24:02,800 --> 01:24:04,840
thirty one from three or whatever.

1752
01:24:05,119 --> 01:24:07,680
Speaker 3: Randall out for nas Reed and that lineup this year

1753
01:24:07,720 --> 01:24:12,119
is a plus twenty five per hundred, So like if so,

1754
01:24:12,239 --> 01:24:14,680
But but I mean that's a tiny it's like one

1755
01:24:14,720 --> 01:24:18,399
hundred and sixty possessions. And if we're gonna be worried

1756
01:24:18,439 --> 01:24:22,159
about the Wolves shot creation, taking Randall off the floor

1757
01:24:22,399 --> 01:24:26,239
is like, that's that's not a solve, Like Reed is

1758
01:24:26,279 --> 01:24:29,399
not going to create shots for other people. Uh So,

1759
01:24:30,760 --> 01:24:33,520
I guess what I'm hung up on is is the

1760
01:24:33,600 --> 01:24:37,800
feeling that go bear still on both ends of the floor,

1761
01:24:38,399 --> 01:24:41,840
much more so on offense, just puts a weird set

1762
01:24:41,840 --> 01:24:44,239
of limits on what you can do, and that eventually

1763
01:24:44,319 --> 01:24:45,880
a team is going to exploit that.

1764
01:24:46,720 --> 01:24:49,840
Speaker 2: But is that fair? Like does is it like? Is

1765
01:24:49,840 --> 01:24:53,239
it fair to does it matter that the Wolves? I

1766
01:24:53,239 --> 01:24:56,039
don't know. After having I've watched this team.

1767
01:24:56,119 --> 01:24:58,560
Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of their crunch time, and I

1768
01:24:58,640 --> 01:25:01,199
worry about their offense, which is now creep to above

1769
01:25:01,239 --> 01:25:03,399
average and crunch time. And I was looking us up

1770
01:25:03,399 --> 01:25:05,159
because you said when you were talking about Gobert, you

1771
01:25:05,239 --> 01:25:11,239
like the top ten stats, their second in point score

1772
01:25:11,319 --> 01:25:13,760
per possession against top ten defenses.

1773
01:25:14,239 --> 01:25:16,600
Speaker 3: They're just gonna win the championship then, right, Is that

1774
01:25:16,640 --> 01:25:18,520
where we're landing is the.

1775
01:25:18,560 --> 01:25:22,800
Speaker 1: Concern that we can't settle a singular concern.

1776
01:25:22,479 --> 01:25:23,560
Speaker 2: For this team.

1777
01:25:24,079 --> 01:25:27,840
Speaker 3: I mean, because let's okay, let's try another angle. If

1778
01:25:27,880 --> 01:25:30,119
they wound up winning it, you would.

1779
01:25:29,960 --> 01:25:31,079
Speaker 2: Say, well, yeah, that makes sense.

1780
01:25:31,119 --> 01:25:34,279
Speaker 3: Anthony Edwards just kept getting better and now he's someone

1781
01:25:34,319 --> 01:25:36,039
will just talk about as a champion and he's a

1782
01:25:36,079 --> 01:25:37,880
top five guy going in the next year because he

1783
01:25:37,920 --> 01:25:40,000
proved it in the playoffs again, like right, like that

1784
01:25:40,119 --> 01:25:42,800
narratively done, dust your hands off made sense.

1785
01:25:43,000 --> 01:25:47,960
Speaker 2: We got there. I just there.

1786
01:25:48,800 --> 01:25:51,920
Speaker 3: I still think the thunder are better. But after that,

1787
01:25:52,119 --> 01:25:56,560
you can't point to a team that is indisputably more

1788
01:25:56,640 --> 01:25:59,439
dangerous than Minnesota. I think it's at least a conversation

1789
01:25:59,479 --> 01:26:03,119
with absolutly everybody else and and and we're just we're

1790
01:26:03,159 --> 01:26:07,039
reflecting that because we can't find other than Gobert, some

1791
01:26:07,039 --> 01:26:12,640
something related to Gobert feeling uh wobbly. But other than that,

1792
01:26:12,680 --> 01:26:13,439
I don't know where to go.

1793
01:26:13,560 --> 01:26:16,439
Speaker 1: I wanted to go before when we were coming into this,

1794
01:26:16,479 --> 01:26:20,079
because is Julius Randall is the type of player where

1795
01:26:20,079 --> 01:26:22,239
I feel like, if you just looked at his numbers

1796
01:26:22,920 --> 01:26:26,560
or didn't watch him regularly. You feel a lot better

1797
01:26:26,600 --> 01:26:29,119
about him if you're unplugged from what other people are

1798
01:26:29,119 --> 01:26:31,560
saying that if you sit back and watch him, it's

1799
01:26:31,600 --> 01:26:34,439
sort of if you look at Karl Anthony Towns's numbers,

1800
01:26:34,800 --> 01:26:37,039
but it's an All Star Maybe could he make All NBA?

1801
01:26:37,119 --> 01:26:40,840
Even if you watch every third, every fourth, every fifth

1802
01:26:40,880 --> 01:26:43,680
Carl Anthony Towns game, whatever it is, you feel differently

1803
01:26:43,720 --> 01:26:46,760
about them despite the numbers. So I can't, Like I

1804
01:26:46,880 --> 01:26:49,720
wanted to harp on Julius Randall, but even the three

1805
01:26:49,760 --> 01:26:53,199
point shooting especially not great post trade deadline. But it's

1806
01:26:53,239 --> 01:26:55,520
sort of they have a one twenty one offensive rating

1807
01:26:55,520 --> 01:26:57,439
when he's on the core without ANBIA words, I don't know,

1808
01:26:57,479 --> 01:26:59,600
Like what more do you want from the tup? Like

1809
01:26:59,600 --> 01:27:01,199
did Jewel Randall experience?

1810
01:27:01,319 --> 01:27:04,039
Speaker 3: No, Like I have not liked Randall as a player

1811
01:27:04,399 --> 01:27:08,359
basically forever because vibes, you know, like it just because

1812
01:27:08,359 --> 01:27:10,800
the ball stops. I don't love that because of the

1813
01:27:10,840 --> 01:27:14,479
pound the dribble stuff sometimes, but he's an effective offensive

1814
01:27:14,479 --> 01:27:17,159
player that like from the moment they traded for him,

1815
01:27:17,199 --> 01:27:19,560
it was like I get it because he's a front

1816
01:27:19,560 --> 01:27:22,680
court guy that can set people up like that matters

1817
01:27:22,680 --> 01:27:25,680
on this team that has one guy in Edwards who

1818
01:27:26,039 --> 01:27:27,960
took a couple of years to learn how to do that,

1819
01:27:28,039 --> 01:27:29,760
and they don't have anyone else you really trust to

1820
01:27:29,800 --> 01:27:33,680
do it. So I think I think you're right that

1821
01:27:33,880 --> 01:27:37,960
like there's something that's like a little itchy about the

1822
01:27:38,399 --> 01:27:42,239
trusting Randall too, But I don't know, man, and.

1823
01:27:42,159 --> 01:27:44,199
Speaker 1: That that might I think we've what we've done is

1824
01:27:44,800 --> 01:27:49,199
had this circular route back to it is the I

1825
01:27:49,239 --> 01:27:51,319
don't know if it's the secondary ball handling or just

1826
01:27:51,359 --> 01:27:53,279
the creation because when you look at the way that

1827
01:27:53,840 --> 01:27:57,680
Julius Randall sets up his teammates or Dante DiVincenzo or

1828
01:27:57,720 --> 01:28:01,279
n iiO Desummu, bots Island might be the closest they

1829
01:28:01,279 --> 01:28:03,560
come to just having Okay, this is an on ball

1830
01:28:03,600 --> 01:28:05,560
wiggle guy who can set up guys in the half

1831
01:28:05,640 --> 01:28:08,520
court with in a bunch of different ways, whereas Julius

1832
01:28:08,600 --> 01:28:10,920
Randall and I would assume it's very much predicated on we.

1833
01:28:10,880 --> 01:28:13,319
Speaker 2: Need to get all the way downhill to maximize it.

1834
01:28:13,560 --> 01:28:17,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they'll see, they'll see the one pass that's available.

1835
01:28:17,000 --> 01:28:19,560
They're not like breaking the geometry of the floor and

1836
01:28:19,600 --> 01:28:22,680
like creating lanes for you know there there if there

1837
01:28:22,680 --> 01:28:25,640
are levels to facilitation, they're not at the top level

1838
01:28:25,880 --> 01:28:28,479
of of of the type of you know that you

1839
01:28:28,560 --> 01:28:30,279
might want as a secondary facilitator.

1840
01:28:30,319 --> 01:28:33,399
Speaker 2: That's because so could we agree to settle on that.

1841
01:28:33,479 --> 01:28:36,039
Speaker 1: We all thought that Terrence Shaddon Junior was going to

1842
01:28:36,079 --> 01:28:38,439
be better with Nickle Alexander Walker.

1843
01:28:38,960 --> 01:28:42,479
Speaker 3: Okay, if they had Alexander Walker, we wouldn't even have

1844
01:28:42,479 --> 01:28:43,159
to do this section.

1845
01:28:44,600 --> 01:28:46,439
Speaker 1: If you put a NAW on this team right now,

1846
01:28:46,479 --> 01:28:48,399
would you pick them over the thunder based on your

1847
01:28:48,439 --> 01:28:49,720
concern level with j.

1848
01:28:50,119 --> 01:28:50,880
Speaker 2: They would rise.

1849
01:28:51,119 --> 01:28:54,159
Speaker 3: They would rise to because I said that it's at

1850
01:28:54,239 --> 01:28:56,800
least a conversation between them and everyone, but the Thunder

1851
01:28:56,840 --> 01:28:59,279
they would rise to. It's now a conversation between them

1852
01:28:59,279 --> 01:29:03,560
and the thunder. That's how sincere my appreciation for now

1853
01:29:03,600 --> 01:29:04,239
yours is.

1854
01:29:04,359 --> 01:29:06,560
Speaker 1: I don't know that there's a great way to quantify

1855
01:29:06,600 --> 01:29:09,119
because you even mentioned their record against good teams, and

1856
01:29:09,159 --> 01:29:11,880
they're one of four teams with a winning record against

1857
01:29:12,119 --> 01:29:16,079
top ten teams. So it's just I think there's a

1858
01:29:16,159 --> 01:29:18,920
Jekyll and Hyde element to them, and maybe that's just

1859
01:29:18,960 --> 01:29:22,960
the concern and given what we've seen the past two

1860
01:29:22,960 --> 01:29:25,880
playoff runs, which of by the way, encompassed two I

1861
01:29:25,880 --> 01:29:28,560
would say very different core elements of the team where

1862
01:29:28,560 --> 01:29:30,560
you go from Karl Anthony Towns to Julius Randall and

1863
01:29:30,600 --> 01:29:34,279
Tante DiVincenzo. They made the conference finals that anyway, could

1864
01:29:34,319 --> 01:29:36,560
you argue that have there been one too many changes?

1865
01:29:36,600 --> 01:29:36,800
Speaker 3: Now?

1866
01:29:36,840 --> 01:29:38,520
Speaker 2: With now you do lose.

1867
01:29:38,439 --> 01:29:41,680
Speaker 1: Niki, Alexander Walker and iodusum Wu is sort of a

1868
01:29:41,720 --> 01:29:45,640
straight to DVD version of that. We'll find out and

1869
01:29:45,359 --> 01:29:47,840
it's like the Bones Highland story. It's one of those

1870
01:29:47,840 --> 01:29:49,720
situations where like, that's really cool.

1871
01:29:49,760 --> 01:29:50,079
Speaker 2: He's fined.

1872
01:29:50,079 --> 01:29:52,640
Speaker 1: It's footing in Minnesota, and I don't feel good about

1873
01:29:52,680 --> 01:29:55,680
that at all for Minnesota when you're looking at what

1874
01:29:55,680 --> 01:29:58,279
their level of reliance could be on him in any

1875
01:29:58,319 --> 01:30:02,000
given game during the playoffs. I'm gonna go with there's

1876
01:30:02,000 --> 01:30:05,479
something here, So I'm just gonna go with a four. Yeah,

1877
01:30:05,479 --> 01:30:06,920
I feel strongly about it.

1878
01:30:07,640 --> 01:30:10,079
Speaker 2: I'll go I'll go a five.

1879
01:30:10,920 --> 01:30:14,560
Speaker 3: Uh, but I don't have any We have yet to

1880
01:30:14,680 --> 01:30:17,479
pinpoint the reason for a concern level. If you could

1881
01:30:17,520 --> 01:30:20,199
d age Mike Conley by like five years, can you

1882
01:30:20,279 --> 01:30:22,960
imagine if it's just if you just had that guy.

1883
01:30:23,840 --> 01:30:26,640
Speaker 1: Who are the guys that could shift the championship race

1884
01:30:26,680 --> 01:30:29,439
if you just d aged them five years.

1885
01:30:30,000 --> 01:30:33,000
Speaker 2: Let's see, you only get one per team? Yeah? One?

1886
01:30:33,239 --> 01:30:36,840
I mean Lebron's gotta be on that for sure. If

1887
01:30:36,840 --> 01:30:37,439
he's five.

1888
01:30:37,359 --> 01:30:42,800
Speaker 3: Years ago Lebron, uh hmm, I mean probably Al Horford.

1889
01:30:42,920 --> 01:30:44,159
Speaker 2: The Warriors would definitely be.

1890
01:30:45,279 --> 01:30:48,319
Speaker 1: Just could you also say what about Draymond?

1891
01:30:49,359 --> 01:30:52,039
Speaker 2: Could you d age the entire roster by five years?

1892
01:30:52,039 --> 01:30:52,560
That'd be cool?

1893
01:30:53,279 --> 01:30:56,399
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, Mike Conley would definitely be up there.

1894
01:30:57,600 --> 01:31:00,600
Speaker 3: It's gonna be all the all the guys you russ

1895
01:31:00,640 --> 01:31:02,720
in Sacramento, we think five years.

1896
01:31:03,960 --> 01:31:06,720
Speaker 2: Might need to go a little farther back. Yeah, i

1897
01:31:06,760 --> 01:31:09,720
mean Harden? Well, how good was Harden five years ago?

1898
01:31:09,800 --> 01:31:11,000
Is that? Is that? Are we back?

1899
01:31:11,239 --> 01:31:13,880
Speaker 1: He was still he was? He was all NBA shoeing

1900
01:31:14,039 --> 01:31:16,840
type rather than oh will he make an All NBA team?

1901
01:31:16,920 --> 01:31:19,079
Speaker 3: Is there anybody on the Bucks you could dage five

1902
01:31:19,159 --> 01:31:21,159
years to give Giannis a real run?

1903
01:31:21,199 --> 01:31:21,560
Speaker 2: Probably?

1904
01:31:21,600 --> 01:31:24,640
Speaker 1: Man, what if you were to have daged before he

1905
01:31:25,039 --> 01:31:27,720
was traded Anthony Davis five years in Dallas?

1906
01:31:28,520 --> 01:31:31,199
Speaker 2: Yeah? Now, and then you're talking because that's.

1907
01:31:31,640 --> 01:31:35,239
Speaker 1: Like in Washington, and I'm not entirely too.

1908
01:31:35,039 --> 01:31:37,760
Speaker 2: Sure if you dhra young five years, you get conference finals?

1909
01:31:37,800 --> 01:31:40,279
Stray young, don't you now games.

1910
01:31:40,039 --> 01:31:42,079
Speaker 1: The rest of the Wizard's roster. I think you get

1911
01:31:42,079 --> 01:31:44,720
a bunch of minors that you get there.

1912
01:31:44,800 --> 01:31:47,880
Speaker 2: That's great. You don't want that? All right? Well we

1913
01:31:47,960 --> 01:31:50,520
did it? Got anything else? Is there?

1914
01:31:50,560 --> 01:31:53,760
Speaker 1: What's the contender that has the biggest red flat or honestly,

1915
01:31:53,800 --> 01:31:55,399
what was the hardest contender to leave off?

1916
01:31:55,520 --> 01:31:57,680
Speaker 2: Or what was the hardest team to leave off?

1917
01:31:57,880 --> 01:31:58,199
Speaker 1: Uh?

1918
01:31:58,520 --> 01:32:01,800
Speaker 3: Well, just by record and odds, it's the Lakers and Sixers.

1919
01:32:02,760 --> 01:32:05,520
The Lakers it just lightning round. That defense is not

1920
01:32:05,720 --> 01:32:08,000
good enough for the playoffs. Uh. And all your best

1921
01:32:08,000 --> 01:32:10,239
players are great on offense, and that's a problem.

1922
01:32:10,640 --> 01:32:13,680
Speaker 2: Uh. And for the Sixers, it's just what is it?

1923
01:32:13,720 --> 01:32:16,560
For the Sixers? You need embid to be MVP level

1924
01:32:16,560 --> 01:32:17,720
and EMBIID.

1925
01:32:17,520 --> 01:32:19,399
Speaker 1: But you also just have you have no like the

1926
01:32:19,800 --> 01:32:22,279
wing shortage on that team. It's kind of my properly

1927
01:32:22,319 --> 01:32:25,560
sized wings. Also the maxim minutes without EMBIID and George

1928
01:32:25,600 --> 01:32:27,680
have kind of come back down to earth. VJ. Edgecombe

1929
01:32:28,000 --> 01:32:30,079
has come back down to earth. There's a list of concerns.

1930
01:32:30,199 --> 01:32:31,680
The hardest team for me to leave off and I

1931
01:32:32,159 --> 01:32:35,760
really truly mean this was the Charlotte Hornets. I don't

1932
01:32:35,800 --> 01:32:38,920
have any faith in Orlando. Do you know what's kind

1933
01:32:38,920 --> 01:32:41,880
of a bummer with the Lakers is they just don't

1934
01:32:42,520 --> 01:32:46,520
I've never been more drawn to the Lakers than other

1935
01:32:46,600 --> 01:32:48,560
teams just because of the Lakers. But a team that

1936
01:32:48,600 --> 01:32:52,520
has Lebron James and Luka Dancic should be far more interesting.

1937
01:32:52,600 --> 01:32:53,039
Speaker 2: It should.

1938
01:32:53,079 --> 01:32:54,199
Speaker 1: The Lakers actually.

1939
01:32:53,960 --> 01:32:56,720
Speaker 3: Should more, you know, I I agree like and I

1940
01:32:56,760 --> 01:32:58,359
blame Alexandro personally.

1941
01:32:58,479 --> 01:32:59,159
Speaker 1: I think that's the.

1942
01:32:59,800 --> 01:33:02,319
Speaker 3: Keep looking at the record and like, huh, that's a

1943
01:33:02,359 --> 01:33:03,520
lot of wins.

1944
01:33:03,560 --> 01:33:04,520
Speaker 2: Howe needs to.

1945
01:33:04,439 --> 01:33:07,479
Speaker 1: Stop sipping on the crump juice and maybe they'll be more.

1946
01:33:07,600 --> 01:33:09,800
Just like everyone's just too buzzed on crump juice. Y.

1947
01:33:09,920 --> 01:33:12,439
Speaker 3: The er biggest weakness is their center is three people.

1948
01:33:13,079 --> 01:33:18,520
H that's fun, all right. I think it's time now

1949
01:33:18,600 --> 01:33:20,000
to thank everyone for listening.

1950
01:33:19,800 --> 01:33:22,520
Speaker 2: For watching, Remember to rate you and subscribe. Let us know.

1951
01:33:23,159 --> 01:33:24,920
Speaker 3: I'm sure we miss something or if any of these

1952
01:33:24,960 --> 01:33:28,520
really resonated, let us know comments here, join our discordinates

1953
01:33:28,520 --> 01:33:29,399
for that YouTube.

1954
01:33:29,079 --> 01:33:31,000
Speaker 2: And podcast description. You can wait in there as well.

1955
01:33:32,119 --> 01:33:34,880
Speaker 3: Tell your friends, tell your enemies. Shouts Franklin like Kino apologies.

1956
01:33:34,960 --> 01:33:35,560
Speaker 2: Jared Allen