Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Thursday. It is time
for total bases. Uh, no need to pick and choose
the games today. We've already had one rained out, which
means we're down to three, so a shorter slate, but
that means you get you get three feature games today,
So we're gonna go deep dive into all three because
we don't usually have time to do this on you know,
a different day. Let's go around the horn before we
get into it. Welcome in, Brian Leonard. Brian, how's your
week going so far? If any Just what do you
have to say about baseball season to this point? We're
a weekend, which means we've got six months to go.
Speaker 2: It's uh, it's basically a small sample size. A lot
of people are thinking the Angels are a contender and
and Cleveland's played very well, and uh, you just gotta
realize that this is just if this happened in the
middle of the season. These things happened in the middle
of season, nobody would overreact. But they are overreacting. And
I will say Smith for the White Sox, we've been
we've been a big fan of his coming into the season.
He has not looked good so there's there's some things
to take take about it the baseball season so far,
but just keep in mind that it's it's early. Things
are gonna happen. It happens all the time, and don't overreact.
We've talked about Toronto Blue Jays starting pitching staff and
I'm still very concerned about that. But overall, my biggest
concern so far is the uh, why do we have
vumpires behind the plate other than to call outs and
at the plate?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 2: It's obvious that the computer system works better. And this
challenge thing, I hope it's a one year thing because
there's some of these plays. You continually watch a team
in the first six innings of the game, a player
ball that they call a strike and they're not allowed
to challenge it because of the they only have two
challenges left. Then just need to get rid of the
on Potter Smith calling the balls and strikes, and you
know that's a computer do it.
Speaker 1: I know Tokyo Brandon's got some opinions on this, so
I want to bring him in here, and we also so, Brian,
can you try to refresh your video feed for someone's
telling me that you are a black box, right now
on the screen. So uh oh no, you're back. Okay,
I think we're good. Uh tokyo, Brandon, you've been DM
ing me about the abs since the beginning of the season.
Now that we've got a couple of minutes as people
file in, what are your thoughts on it?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you've been ignoring my you've been ignoring my dms. Yeah.
I love the challenge system. You know, Baseball does some
stupid things sometimes, like the Ghost Runner and tying the
All Star Game into home field in the World Series
and stupid things like that, But this time they got
it right. I love the challenge system. I wish I wish,
like you said, just get rid of the umps and
let's do it this way, because if it was like football,
where you have to wait five minutes for the call
to New York and all that, then I'd be against it.
But man, these are split second decisions. They don't stall
the game. I've heard the arguments, well, it's hurting the
umpire's feelings. When did we ever care about umpire's feelings before,
it's hurting the fabric of the game. Well, if the
fabric of the game is inaccurate calls, then maybe your
game needs to be changed. I love the challenge system.
I love it. I think it's great, and I love
the fact that Buckner got twenty of his calls over
turned in one game. Just I mean, I love it
so much. I think they should tie the ABS system
to umpire rankings and fire the ones that get too
many wrong frankly, and give them raise to the ones
that get them right.
Speaker 2: Teas they do this, it's not on every play. It
since stantaneous. Why do they even need to challenge? Why
don't you Why don't you? Why don't you umpire have
a thing? Just a buzz and a dang? I mean,
how hard is it?
Speaker 3: And you don't need Another argument? I heard is they're
sad that the managers don't fight with the umpires anymore.
Who cares, Let's just play baseball, you know. So betting
is baseball is about betting now and you got to
be accurate.
Speaker 4: Well that that's you know.
Speaker 1: I see, this is like the reason I've been ignoring
I haven't been ignoring it, but it's like it just
doesn't help it. This doesn't help anyone cash tickets though.
Speaker 4: That's the thing.
Speaker 1: Like the way I look at it is this like
we're here to talk betting. No one really cares about,
like what my opinion is on the abs if you
want to. I've said for three years because I bet
Minor League Baseball that it's a fantastic addition in the game.
I don't know if we need to go full KBO
and just automate the umps yet, because I have issues
with that as well. But again I'm I it's I
don't think anyone's asking Adam trigger what is like, you
know what his thoughts are on that. And I also
don't know how that helps you. You win bets, and
that's what we're here to do, is win bets. So
we do have three games. We're gonna get to everything today.
That's why I felt like that was a good spot
for that. So let's get into it early, you know.
So we have one early game too late. The middle
game was squeezed out by weather today, and so let's
start things off in Kansas City where I was two
and one overall yesterday. I took a loss on this
game with the Twins. It turned into a complete mess.
There was fog, there was weather. We almost had a comeback.
Brian Leonard, I'm you know, I'm sitting there thinking, hey,
we got first and second, nobody out the one win
for the Twins and what has been a very disappointing
first five games for this team, at least for me,
because I was quite high on them coming into the season,
and that doesn't change to this point.
Speaker 4: It's only five games.
Speaker 1: But the one win for them was they got lucas
Er said get in the game yesterday and forced him
to come and close. Had a game that was twelve
to one at one point. He probably shouldn't have had
to been in that game in a safe situation, but
he was. Weather galore here in Kansas City today looks
like we could have twenty five mile an hour wins.
So Twins Royals good decent pitching matchup, but that weather
might might change that a little bit. How are you
seeing this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah, when you take a look at the daily stadium report,
we're looking at eight percent more runs in Coffee Stadium.
The wind is blowing out, home runs are going to
be a factor. They're expecting eighteen percent more home runs
in this game than a normal game, which is which
is basically about half a home run part four to one.
So if you're looking to play individual players, look for
that home run props in Kansas City. I think you're
gonna get a little bit of value there. But yeah,
I do an afternoon segment or I do another game
that we break down, and broke down that game yesterday,
and I had had Minnesota in that game. And if
you take a look at Ryan's stats from from the
base from the cards that pitcher list puts out, he
pitched a lot better than his results were. But it
was it was a strange game, and it was it
was a crazy game, and we may see more of
that again today in Kaufman Stadium. We do have on
today's card, it's Bradley against Reagan's. Reagan's being the lefty
Reagas is about one fifty five favorite right now, total
nine and a half, slightly to the und. You rarely see,
you know, Bradley didn't have a good season last year,
but he'd made some changes in the offseason. I would
expect a better year out of him. But you rarely
see Cole Reagan's in a game in Kansas City with
a total of nine and a half. So that tells
you how the wind is going in this game. But
we've got Tadz Bradley against Reagan's and if you take
a look at what has happened and last year, obviously
Tys Bradley did not have a good season, but he's
I expect a much better out of him if he had.
Take him Versus righties, he's got basically a thirteen strikeout
match walk ratio last year, which was not good. And
against lefties, he's got like an eleven point five. Now,
that was last year, and we've already seen a lot
of pitchers that made changes this year, and if things
have worked out better, I expect a better effort out
of him. Probably going to see five lefties and four
rights in the matchup today. When you're looking at Cole
Reagan's probably looking at six righties and three lefties last
year against the right headed pitcher, I guess you cause me.
Against right handed batters, Cole Reagan's got this a forty
point five strikeout percentage in games he played basically faced
righty's forty eight innings. So that's what one hundred and
thirty thirty seven, one hundred and forty something batters forty
point five strike out right, seven point five I walk right.
That's unheard of. Now, I guess lefties it was a
more realistic twenty eight point two and eleven point five,
So he does walk a little bit more lefties, but
and he is going to see only three lefties today.
So I think Reagan's if he could battle the wind,
he should be at a pretty good spot here. And
the numbers, the number is okay. And as you mentioned,
they had to use bullpen arms yesterday that they normally
wouldn't have used. That is going to hurt them a
little bit today, but still it should be a fun
game to watch it. Like strange things that happen.
Speaker 4: TB.
Speaker 1: I want to get you in here because I found
out that you were on The Twins through someone commenting
and said, hey, I'm riding with you in Tokyo, Brandon
on the Twins, And I said, well, in my head,
I was like, well, great minds think alike. I'm glad
TV is on the Twins. That makes me like them
even more. I'm kind of chalking it up to the
same thing Brian was. I mean, at one point the
fog was so thick that like you couldn't I don't
know what it was like in the ballpark, but on
this on camera, like you couldn't even see the outfield wall.
Speaker 4: It was just a really strange game.
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, for me looking at the you know,
those last three innings, the Twins finally bat's wake up.
Speaker 4: They score eight runs. Can they carry that into into today?
Speaker 3: So I went three and one yesterday. The Twins was
not my loss. The Mets was my loss. The Twins
I put out as a free play and also the
parlay leg on the show yesterday. But I won with
the Padres because I thought they would bounce back and
they did, and I won with a couple of others.
But anyway, enough patting myself on the back. I have
a five percent play in this game, the Minnesota game
and Minnesota Royals game. So I'm gonna break it down,
but I'm gonna try not to give away my play
on my Twitter. Tokyo one TV.
Speaker 1: Do you want me to make your life easier so
you don't have to like potentially divulge your play here.
Speaker 3: No, I'll break it down, Okay, go ahead, if you
go to my Twitter, I put up picture ops's against
the batteries are facing today and I also put the
outs projections for all the pictures today. It was very
easy because there's only six of them. So take a
look at my Twitter, you'll see all that for free
and looking at you know, despite yesterday's balloon totals, neither
one of these lineups. I don't think either one of
these lineups are particularly scary. Bullpens are somewhat trashy for
both teams, at least in current form right now, and
I have Taj Bradley ranked a little bit higher than
Reagan's in current form. Reagan's overall is probably the better
picture overall talent wise. My numbers when I run them,
this is not my five percent play, but this is
another play that my numbers suggested to me was tadj
Radley's strikeouts over four and a half. It's plus one
eleven right now. I'm not gonna play it because I
don't like it, but my numbers are screaming at me
to take it. And when I when I did a
little bit of a deep dive, I found out that
in all of his starts against these Royals, he's averaging
five and a half strikeouts per start. So Todge Bradley's
strikeouts over might be good for plus money value wise.
When when you have a value bet like this, it's
not good to like go all in on it. These
value bets for plus money are ones that you put,
you know a little bit on and try try to
build your bankroll a little bit. It's not something you
go all in on. But my numbers love Todge Bradley
strikeout total and I'll leave it at that for now.
Take a look at the ops numbers. They're very interesting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is was an easy pass for me. As
soon as I saw the weather it was it was
pretty much like you know, and I of course I
even watching last night see it felt like the ball
started to carry Later in that game, is the weather
picked up at one point they were playing in a downpour,
and uh, I mean Josh Josh Bell hit one that
was it felt like a like kind of like a
fly ball the left field that landed fifteen rows into
the seats.
Speaker 4: So I mean, if it's anything like.
Speaker 1: That, like that's the difficult part about this handicap is
you almost have to just ask yourself, who's set up
for more swing and miss here, you know, because the
ball gets put in play and it's gonna fly out
like that. That would be my concern with even trying to,
you know, find a way into this game. I wanted
so what I will say about the Twins in general,
because on one of our first shows, I said I
was high on this this team this year. I went back,
looked at their roster, looked at the looked at the
Triple A roster. I've been watching Saint Paul Saints games
and I realized that a lot of the guys that
I'm excited about in this organization are still at TRIPAA.
So for me, the Twins are on the shelf. I'm
done with the Twins. I know it's a five game sample,
but listen, that's concerned. The five game sample is against
the Orioles and the Royals, two teams that I.
Speaker 4: Think are like middling.
Speaker 1: You know, you're one and four against two teams that
are middling at best in my opinion in the American League.
Speaker 4: It's not like they drew.
Speaker 1: Oh they had to go to the Bronx and play
the Yankees the first three games of the year. Of
the season, they haven't hit at all. You want, you know,
people are asking for props. I'll say the one guy,
if he's in the lineup that I may, you know,
be interested in targeting a prop that I thought like
kind of hit the ball hard yesterday, but hasn't hit
the ball at all. It was brooks League, he had
a couple. I think he's batting sub two hundred right now.
I have no idea where if he's even in, if
he's even going to be in the lineup today, or
where he will be in the lineup. But you know,
bat at ninth yesterday one for four, but a couple
of his outs are pretty loud, and he's a guy
that has like kind of sneaky pot that could get
into one.
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna throw that out there.
Speaker 1: If brooks Lee's in the lineup, I take a flyer
on him maybe to hit a home run today.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I just wanted to point out
because of the way the game went yesterday, Kennis City's
bullpen threw one hundred and twenty three pitches. The bullpen
one hundred and twenty three pitches for the team that
won the game. Keep in mind they didn't play on Tuesday,
so there's only a few of those guys that may
not play in this game. But having that day off
on Tuesday, this should reset pretty well. Even though they
threw it, did throw all those those bullpen pitches.
Speaker 3: One just I'm sorry to cut in, but speaking about hitters,
I ran my numbers for what hitters could have a
big day. I post that on Twitter sometimes to bid today.
I'm not going to because the samples so small, but
my numbers are saying James McCann and Willie Adams are
are primed for betting props. If you feel like betting
a hitter prop today, I would not bet well. Adamas
is actually pretty hot two days ago and yesterday he
actually got over his hits runs RBIs props, So just
some just a side note, we have time today.
Speaker 2: The numbers I have show that Buxton hit a home
run is an excellent I'm not a home run prop
kind of guy, but Buxton hit a home run is
pretty high.
Speaker 1: Lucas Salvator in the chat, this is actually probably you know,
I think brooks Lee would be kind of a big
time flyer because he'll probably be down, you know, near
the bottom of the order.
Speaker 4: Who knows if he's even in the lineup.
Speaker 1: Luke Keshl's the guy that, like I think is the
best player on this Twins team in terms of like
obviously Buxton's the best player, but like from an upside standpoint,
I think Keshall could be a star. He showed flashes
last year work he worked around three different injuries Tommy
John surgery twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five, he broke
his arm in the middle of the season, came back,
he was still playing great. He had like a thumb
surgery or something in the offseason, So I wonder if
that's tied to a little bit of a slow start.
But Lucas, I'm very much with you, like he's a
guy that I would think if you can buy low
on him right now, I would. I think he would
be a good prop guy in this game as well.
All right, Tokyo, Brandon, back to you. Let's head out West.
We have two games that, in my opinion, are a
little bit more interesting. I think there's more likely that
I find a bet in one of these two. I
was going to go in order, but now I'm gonna
City by the Bay. I wonder who he wants to
talk about here. City by the Day is a stay
away from run line in home run bets. After we
just gave out a whole bunch of home run bets.
But you know what, when there's a thirty mile an
hour wind blowing out. I think you can mess with
home run bets just a little bit. He says he
likes Mets over three and a half on the team total.
Sounds like City by the Bay is fading his team
out in the Bay tonight with that team total. So
Tokyo Brandon to you, Mets Giants, how are you seeing
this one?
Speaker 3: So taking a quick look at the pictures. Robbie Ray
David Peterson two teams that are in a bit of
a quagmire here as far as hitting is concerned. I
put out a free play video on WAJER talk to
YouTube channel today. They probably have not uploaded it yet,
so here's your sneak preview. But I would go under
in this one for sure, especially in the first five innings,
because both pitchers have pretty good history against the batters
they're facing. Robbery Ray has a point fifty three ops
in eighty two at bats against the batters he's facing today.
Peterson is a six eighty four, so good sample size
that I can trust. And neither one of these teams
are hitting anything. I think San Francisco got their first
run in the third game of the season or something,
and now the Mets. The Mets have a lot more
talent than the Giants, but they're not. I mean, Bischet's
getting booed and they need to turn things around pretty quick,
and I don't think today's the day they do it.
So I saw four and a half on the first
five under. I don't think these two teams can generate
one run per inning at the beginning of this game,
especially with the pitcher's historical numbers against the other team.
I put this out on my free play video.
Speaker 1: We'll get Brian and here, I would have a hard
you know, City by the day says Mets team total
over three and a half. I think if I was
going to play an over, that's the only way I
could look because the Giants not only have they not
hit this lineup, I said, I think on the very
first day show we did when they were up against
Max Freed does not line up well against left handed pitching.
They didn't last year and I don't think they're going
to again this year. So up against the lefty here,
I think it would have to be Mets correlated stuff.
Speaker 4: The only way I could look at this one. How
are you seeing it?
Speaker 2: Yeah? You mentioned and both left he's going in this game.
And Peter Peterson is a guy who when he's good,
he's excellent, and when he's bad, he gets hit pretty
heavily for the hitting. Keep in mind this is only
five games sample size, but the Mets right now, I
believe our second worst in baseball on hitting with players
in scoring position, and you get certain teams that get
on a hot streak, it's there's no I'm not a
big believer in clutch or any of that stuff. So
it's just a small sample size. The Mets will be
able to hit decently averagely when nobody's on base, but
they can't hit with the runners of the scoring position. Eventually,
that's going to even out a little bit. So yeah,
I wouldn't have any problem playing playing them over. And
as a matter of fact, Robbie Ray had a big
comeback season last year. I've been looking to fade him
a little bit. And when I took a look at
the two teams, even though the Mets haven't got off
to a good start, they're the better team here. The
Jihants are expected to be on what third place in
that division away behind the Dodgers. I think the Mets
are the team I'm not a big Phillies fan this year,
so I think the Mets win that division. And so
to catch the Mets in a basic situation where I
only lay on what twenty or something, that would be
the side I would look forward in this game.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, without a doubt. For me, it's Mets are passed.
Speaker 1: And kind of trying to talk myself into a Mets
that odds.
Speaker 4: Were sort of on where I made it.
Speaker 1: Minus went fifteen, minus won twenty range, but you know,
on a day where you have three games, you kind
of have to get creative sometimes. I don't think the
books are just going to hand you a ton of
like side or even total value a lot of times
on a short slate like this. So I think the
price is in line with what it should be, but
there is, you know, for me, and again trying not
to over to small samples. Six games into the season,
I do have some concerns with the Giants, and that's
even after they went and took two of three in
San Diego. I don't think the Padres are are a
great baseball team this year. So when I look at
that series and say, okay, the Giants did take two
of three, I still can't shake.
Speaker 4: The Yankee series.
Speaker 1: The you know kind of how the manager looked a
little bit lost in almost like he's in over his
head a little bit. And then you start to go
back to last season. You see how this team has
struggled against left handed pitching. If you remember back to
last year, the Giants were like dead and buried. They
go on this sort of crazy run. I think, like
you know, into August where it was almost just like
it was almost just like they were feeding off of
like some new energy. I think they brought Drew Gilbert
in and like he had the dugout all jazzed up.
But then when push came to shove, they started losing
games and they kind of regress to what they might
end up being this year. Again, Brian, you were kind
of nodding, right. There is that kind of how you're
seeing the Giants right now too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's more of a situation for myself that I
think the Mets are are the better team. I have
a chart that I look at. It talks about lucky wins.
You see this a lot when you, like, if you're
doing college basketball. There's a lot of places out there
that have that kind of thing. You had mentioned yesterday
the Colorado Rockies, and congratulations on that. The three teams
that are the unluckiest in Major League Baseball right now
are the Mets, the Rockies, and the Angels. I can
agree with the Mets and the Rockies. I still think
the Angels. I'm not a big Angels fan. But the
three luckiest teams have been Houston, a team that I
continue to fight and not win, Toronto and Saint Louis
a team that I like coming into the season. So
with the Mets in the situation right now where they
been very unlucky, and if you talk about as I
said earlier about hitting the runner of the scoring position,
I think this is just a bargain price. And for
the Giants, I don't know if he's in over his head,
I'd like the bold move. But bringing somebody in who's
not a retreat as a manager. The worst thing I
see is these managers that are just not very good,
and they continue to get hired and hired again because
there's nobody else out there. Give them the college coaches
a chance, give the assistant coaches a chance, let them
see what you can do. I'd like that move from
the Giants We'll see how this team goes. I'm not
a huge Giants fan this year, but yeah, I think
the Mets of the right.
Speaker 3: Side of this game.
Speaker 4: Gee hurt, he says.
Speaker 1: I don't think the Mets off the travel day on
the West Coast in this matchup or minus went twenty. Listen,
I make it minus one sixteen. They're minus went twenty
right now, he says, looks like more of a coin flip.
I don't know where I had the Mets power rated.
Speaker 4: That's not a coin flip.
Speaker 1: It's I have the Mets sort of like categorically better
than the Giants, so I agree with the market. I
don't know if there's enough of an edge for me
to play. Tokyo Brandon. I want to go to you because, uh,
you know, we kind of got the The d Backs
kind of shoved it in our face. The last couple
of days. We talked about their bullpen not being very good.
What did they do? They went in and won three
close games where they needed the bullpen to shut down
each game. Yesterday they win a game one nothing, so
braves braves from the town tonight and Arizona suddenly hot.
Big sweep of the Tigers are you changing your opinion
at all the Diamondbacks, And how do you want to
play this one?
Speaker 4: Braves.
Speaker 3: Dbacks suddenly hot, that's that's being generous.
Speaker 4: Tigers, that's suddenly hot. You sweep the Tigers. That's just
a good result right there.
Speaker 3: True. Yeah, the Diamondbacks do have power in their lineup.
They have they have nice looking, nice looking on offense.
They're really fun to watch, but uh, in the sixth,
eighth and ninth inning, they are not fun to watch.
They're like watching the Bad News Bears. They don't even
have a left handed guy in their bullpen. Teams are
going to take advantage of that and just score the
crap out of this team. And today they play a
team that I have the bullpen rank number four, Ronaldo Lopez,
Ryan Nelson. These are two pictures that probably no one
feels really confident backing either one. They do have decent
numbers against the batters they're facing in their history, but
again I mentioned yesterday, the caveat to that is it
could have been ten years ago, so we can't really
say how they did in the last five years or
something like that. Well, I do, I do actually do
that when I run my numbers but that's more of
a deep dive. So I mean, I trust Lopez a
little bit more, and I definitely trust Atlanta's bullpen a
little bit more. But you know, I mean, I think
Atlanta's got a good lineup too when they're playing well.
The problem with Atlanta is they're just too hot in
colds some times. They have actually more star power than
the Diamondbacks do. The Diamondbacks have more of a every
day they're gonna score five runs kind of offense, where
Atlanta they could, they could score ten, they could score one.
You know, they're really hot and cold like a microwave.
So I don't know. I put a free play out
at Atlanta because I think given the matchup, I think
minus one twelve is a very fair price for a
possible playoff team opposed to a last place team. So well,
I mean, the Rockies are there, so they might not
be last place, but they'll be near the Rockies in
my opinion, towards the end of the year. So I
think minus twelve is a good price for the Atlanta Braves.
I wouldn't go crazy on it, but a small percent.
Speaker 1: Ryan my biggest numerical edge today, which is not very
big it's not you know, it's not big relative to
what the biggest would be on a day where there
was fifteen games.
Speaker 4: Is the Braves showey?
Speaker 1: I show some value like Tokyo Brandon at minus one twelve.
I do show a little value to the Braves on
the road here. But I've got my concerns, so I'm
curious to see how you look at this one, Braves Diamondbacks,
and if you can get to the window with either side.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't want the Braves here. Ronaldo Lopez got
her early last season, didn't really pitch much, so he's
been gone for a long time, and in the preseason
he was having velocity problems. I wasn't even sure he
was going to make the starting rotation, but because of
Atlanta's had so many injuries very similar to the Blue Jays,
so many injuries to the starters that they got to
throw him out there. I don't think he goes along
in this game. I like Ray Nelson. I like the
changes he made last year, and I think he's the
better pitcher out of the two, especially with Lopez coming
back from injury, and he hasn't proven that he's back yet.
And this was a guy who was for the most
part an afterthought even before he got injured, so his
better days have been behind him. I don't want any
part of him on the mound here against an Arizona
team that is. Say what you want about Arizona's pitching staff,
but they've got a good hitting ball club. They've probably
got too many good hitters that can't get him into
the lineup, especially these outfielders. So if I'm playing, I'm
playing the home team in this one. Although, to be
honest with you, with three games on today's card, who
knows if I'm even going to have a play But
just something a little bit different than what you guys
have been talking about with Atlanta and I personally, I
until the Nina gets some of the starting pitchers back,
I don't consider them to be a playoff team. They've
got some great hitters on this team, some really good players,
but that's a tough division.
Speaker 1: I feel like you can't completely throw out twenty twenty
four though. I mean, the guy had a sub to
eer in one hundred and thirty five innings with one
hundred and forty eight strikeouts Like that is that is
like not a smile as an insanely good season.
Speaker 4: Now, last year he comes out gets hurt.
Speaker 1: I was concerned with the v LO as well in
the spring, but then in the first, his first start
of the regular season, he comes out, he's throwing ninety seven.
I think he gives up one hit over six innings
against the Royals, which again is it's one start. I'm
not a huge I'm not huge on the Royals this
year either. He's certainly up against a tougher lineup tonight
in a ballpark that's going to be a far more
hitter friendly scenario than what that opening game was against
the Royals.
Speaker 4: I'm with you, Brian. I love Ryan Nelson. I can't.
That's the other thing.
Speaker 1: Even where I'm at with the d Backs and even
with showing the little value against the Braves, I'm very
high on Nelson. You know, his first start, that stat
line's maybe a little bit unfair. I thought he was
a little unlucky, and I didn't think he pitched his
you know, you look at quickly take a look at
his ra seven point seven to one, right, Like, I
didn't think he.
Speaker 4: Threw it that badly against the Dodgers. So yeah, I
don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm confident enough here to really play
either side. I'll bring TV back in here to close
it down. Any Can you find a prop in this
one for us?
Speaker 3: Hmm, not really. I mean i'll just rattle off my out.
Since there's only six pictures here, I'm projecting Ryan Nelson
to only go fourteen outs, but I don't know how
accurate that'll be. I got Lopez going sixteen. I'm against
you guys on the Nelson thing. I'm not a fan
of his, but you know, we all have our reasons,
we all have our different approaches. I would stay away
from a prop though, I'm not sure if I trust
my projection there. Ryan Nelson fourteen outs, but Atlanta's lineup,
they're not the Dodgers. But I mean there's little rest
when you're facing those nine, so he could get knocked
out early as possible.
Speaker 2: All right, Bright, Yeah, I don't do my own productions
like TV does, but I do have other places where
I buy their projections, and they've got a fifty percent
chance that Nelson gets a quality start, and that's the
highest on the card today. Lopez is actually twenty four percent,
along with Bradley twenty four and Peters in twenty eight,
so they have him going five point eight innings, so
he's he's going to be in the game a little
bit longer according to these projections, and I consider him
the better pitcher. So we'll see. We'll see how this
one works out. I mentioned Buxton earlier. You're able to
get him at plus three eighty five to to hit
a home run. I think that's a pretty good bargain.
So we'll have see Vinnie Pascatino also three point nine
or three ninety come back on that, so that one
that wouldn't be bad either. So we'll see how this goes.
But if you're looking at the home run reports overall,
like I said, a cansasity eighteen percent, San Francisco is
strange because the wind always seems to be blown out
in San Francisco, but it it kind of circles, and
so they're projecting nineteen percent less even though the wind
is blowing out in San Francisco. You always have to
take that with a grain of salt because of the
way the wind blows in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: I'll throw one out there, so you know with the
props if you're if you're willing to take a guy.
If you're willing to take a chance on a guy
hitting eighth or ninth, typically the the you're gonna get
a better number on those guys because the book the
books are up pricing all of that in. If the
guy's you know, hitting eighth or ninethies typically down at
the bottom of the order, the his prop is gonna be,
like they know all this right, They're gonna juice up
the guy. It's gonna they're gonna juice up the guys
that might get the extra at that. And so I
talked about brooks Lee with the Twins, Jordan Lawler's quietly
got a couple of hits in a row. I feel
like we've been waiting five years for him to like
realize this potential. And that's the guy. If he's in
the lineup today and Lopez comes out suddenly throwing ninety
four again instead of hitting ninety seven, if that happens,
I'll tell you what, if you can I don't know
how much you trust the v Lo on the screen.
If Lopez is Velo's like ninety four as opposed to
like hitting ninety seven like he did when he was
all jacked up on opening Day, I'd live bet the
probably start live betting against the Braves if that was
the case, because that was like the big concern. And
then I read that mechanic. You know, he had a
mechanical issue in the spring too that he was trying
to work around. That's, uh, that's like concern to get
blown up right there. So that was my big concern.
Is he comes out suddenly he's not hitting ninety seven
on the gun and then the d Backs you know,
hit him with like a six run inning, So that
that's something to look for, I think. And again, you know,
usually we're you know, when we don't have huge opinions
on a normal slate, we're just you know, kind of
moving game to game.
Speaker 4: But we got improvised a little bit. There's only three games. Actually.
Speaker 1: I had this grand handicap for Blue Jay's White Sox
and it got canceled last night. So I was all
set to, you know, come with that game and it
got canceled last night. So we are still going to
figure out three plays for the parlay. It's gonna be
a little bit more difficult than normal, but I'm gonna
go to Tokyo Brandon, give him the floor. He's already
told you he's got a five percent play at wager
talk today, So TV find a show play for me
here and talk talk to us about what else you
got going on at wager talk.
Speaker 3: Sure I do have a five percent play up. There's
a couple of really good deals wager talk has going
on right now. First of all, out of US three,
you can pick two of us and make it a
double play three day all access to two of us.
That's one deal. But wager Talk's also doing a six
for three deal. For the price of three days access,
you can get three days for free, So six days
for the price of three for any capper, even outside
of US three. So really good deals going on at
wager talk. So go to wager talk dot com and
check that out. And check our pages out because if
you go to experts, Brian, Adam and I all have
a page there that shows a bunch of stuff, our
free plays, our latest videos and things like that. So
check all of that out. I'm glad you're giving me
the first choice because there's such slim pickings today. I'll
take Atlanta on the money line. Then if I get
the first choice, and is that what either one of
you would have taken.
Speaker 4: Nope, you can have that's that's fine.
Speaker 3: Cool. Oh yeah, you guys like Nelson, Okay, that's right.
I don't And as soon as I say that, Brian's laughing.
As soon as I say that, he's to go out
and pitch seven scoreless innings, right because every time I
fade someone, that's what happens. Yeah, well here's trash talk someone.
That's exactly what happens. So we'll see.
Speaker 4: I just don't like how much unknown there is.
Speaker 1: Like, listen, if you get into a close game here
in the later innings, you have to like the Braves
because the Diamondbacks bullpen, you know, I still think is
pretty poor, and they've just used like every leverage reliever
they have over the last three days to close out
three one run wins. So, Brian Leonard, you always talk about,
you know, some games being a better live betting game.
Speaker 4: Would Diamondbacks Braves qualify as that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would think. So there's got to be a
better live betting game than the pregame as these three.
Because I'm having a hard time coming up with even
a part of a parlor here. I'm going to take
a look at the match you're laying let's just say
one twenty. You can get better than that out there,
but even worse in some places. But I prefer the
match in this game. I just think eventually the hitters
are gonna come around and we're gonna get some better
luck out of the Mets. I've talked about it being
an unlucky team, so I consider the Mets division winner.
I consider San Francisco a third place team, and with
a near near pickup situation, I'll take you the mass.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's probably my strongest lean on the
slate today is the Mets. And that's so I agree
with you there, Brian. What what are you seeing? What
minus one twenty I'm.
Speaker 2: Seeing minus won eighteen to minus one twenty five. The
Sharper books are in the in the lower range, So yeah,
you can go one twenty two. Let's just say just
just to cover most of it.
Speaker 4: All right, you guys left me with the game that
I want no part of.
Speaker 1: But that's okay because I'm gonna find I think I've
gotten a play in that game, as we talked about it,
that I will make my play first.
Speaker 4: Aby covers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we are doing full court press today, So Robbie
and know, and I will be on at the top
of the hour to break down the n T semi finals,
which I will be at tonight in Hinklefield House in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Looking forward to that, and we'll also talk, you know,
we may get to some final four.
Speaker 4: Our final four show.
Speaker 1: Is tomorrow, so yeah, we will have a full court
press today tomorrow, and then our final show will be
Championship Monday, so you know, if you're interested in that,
that'll be ten am Eastern right here on the wager
Talk YouTube channel. We also have a great double play package,
so even though there's not a ton of MLB today,
I'll probably have something in triple A. I hit the
Charlotte Knights last night. We've got KBO often running. TV
is involved in the Asian leagues as well, and you
could pick two of your handicappers. So great day to
you know, try the double play. TV's got the five percenter,
so you'll get the five percent. I mean, it almost
just doesn't make sense to if you're just if you're
gonna buy the five percenter, why not you know, get
the the two for one.
Speaker 3: Three days really days, two of us write almost the
same price.
Speaker 1: It's the more cost effective option. So that is the
double play. Any two handicappers up on all of our pages.
But yeah, I guess I strongly encourage one of those
cappers to be TV today because he's got a five
percent play.
Speaker 4: Hopefully I'm not going to again.
Speaker 3: In Arizona, Arizona, am beardown Arizona. We're gonna win the
national championship, first time since what ninety three, I.
Speaker 1: Think ninety seven, Miles Simon, Mike Bibbie. They beat the
Kentucky Wildcats in overtime Prime nineteen ninety seven.
Speaker 3: It was the Sean Elliott when I was there, so Steve,
when I.
Speaker 4: Went there, that was believe.
Speaker 1: That was the famous call where he Simon says championship
And I think it is the last time, if you
were to split the country down the middle, I think
it's the last time someone like west of like the
middle of the US has won the national Championship, which
is a little unfair because like two thirds of the
schools are on the other side of the way.
Speaker 3: I didn't know that Gonzaga Arizona. There's pretty good teams
on the wint.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they had it won though the last team to
actually win was the ninety seven Arizona Wildcats, So I
think the West. I think the furthest West to win,
since then would either would either be Baylor or Kansas.
Speaker 4: So right in the middle of the country.
Speaker 3: Interesting, not even dur.
Speaker 2: Even though baseball's on, I got three games today, I'm
on the Hockey Show. It in an hour fifteen minutes
and there's a full slate of hockey bats out there.
So yeah, even if the baseball card is short, there's
plenty of ways to make money out there.
Speaker 1: Absolutely shout out, shout out puck time, the O G Show.
That's yeah, you're into hockey. That's where you should, uh
should be and uh it'll be even I mean the
plofs right around the corner, I think getting close.
Speaker 2: Yeah, about eight games left. Preached in.
Speaker 1: As a fair weather like hockey guy that doesn't really
know much about hockey, like, I'll sit there and just
watch a hockey playoffs in my like, that's something I
want to do with my free time.
Speaker 4: It's just electric.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to go to an actual game and watch sports.
I would prefer hockey over anything. I agree, continuous excitement,
and I'm a lot and I love baseball. I love baseball,
but hockey is the most exciting.
Speaker 3: The last hockey game I went to. Uh you were there, Brian,
I don't remember, but we weally with you and Marco
and Marco's wife.
Speaker 4: A lot of fun, all right.
Speaker 1: So what I'm gonna do for the parlay, I'm going
to go with the over in this Royals Twins game.
We we sat there and gave out home run prop
after home run prop, and I'm hoping they all hit that.
That's what That's what I'm doing. I'm hoping they all hit.
With that being said, I think there's so two things. One,
I think that enough contact is made where we see
a little bit of offense. Two, I'm not thrilled with
either bullpen set up today. So even if Taj Bradley,
Taj Bradley's notorious for leaving one up every once in
a while, that's like if he misses, he does miss
up and he will let you elevate the ball.
Speaker 4: Like.
Speaker 1: So, you know, we talked about some Twins props. The
Royals hitting the ball out a couple of times is
not crazy either, especially if Bradley gets caught, you know,
with one of those heaters that like kind of stays
up in the zone. I'm gonna take it down to
over nine, so it's gonna be the juiced version over nine.
I think, TV do you can you tell me what
an over nine is? Is it like minus one twenty
five something like that, because I think the over nine
and a half is even money. But for the parlay's sake,
I want over nine.
Speaker 3: I'm not the guy to ask, but I'll have just
one moment.
Speaker 1: I I'm pretty sure the alt total on that is
gonna be like minus one twenty five.
Speaker 4: So here's what we'll do.
Speaker 2: I see twenty two twenty at draft games right now, beautiful.
Speaker 4: I'll call it.
Speaker 1: I'll call it minus one twenty five just because I
think that's like that'll cover everyone. I just think with
a thirty mile an hour wind blowing out the fact
that you've got, you know, the Twins' bullpen is very
questionable even at full strength, and then the Royals use
some arms. I think if you could get a crooked
number early there, you know, you get to four to four,
you're pushing. That's as good as it's gonna get for
me today, I think, so we'll go over nine, which
makes the parlay today Tokyo Brandon's going braves it's minus
one twelve. Brian's gonna go Mets minus one twenty, and
I'm gonna go Royals Twins over nine. That is your
three teamer, that's your show. We will be someone's saying,
I look like luka doncik. I mean, I don't know
about that. I wish I had his game. I'll tell
you that much. I suppish it could ball.
Speaker 3: Like that money Adam Adam. Before we cut off, we
should tell everyone that we're doing a Saturday show this week.
Speaker 1: Yes, great call, Tokyo, Brandon. We are bringing total Bases
to Saturday. We will fill the last call time slot,
so the show, this same show will be on at
eleven am Eastern on Saturday, so we're going to six
days a week. Tomorrow will be back in our normal
weekday time slot at nine am with a lot more
games to talk about. So you got the sort of
the unabridged version here right, the extended cut of the
three games.
Speaker 4: Today.
Speaker 1: Tomorrow it's back to rapping fire, getting through the games
and hopefully some better stuff to beat. But you know what, guys,
this is how it works. We're gonna hit this parlate
today because it's three games. We didn't really care about.
It's going to be the one that wins. So good
luck today and we'll see you guys in the morning.
For more total bases,