WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.960 --> 00:00:03.640 I gotta get Israel to calm down. Now the latest 2 00:00:03.759 --> 00:00:06.280 news We're on the verge, a real piece in the Middle. 3 00:00:06.000 --> 00:00:07.480 East, and your latest to Vinions. 4 00:00:07.519 --> 00:00:08.960 I trust what President Trump is doing. 5 00:00:09.039 --> 00:00:11.759 Fifty five the talk station. 6 00:00:14.039 --> 00:00:16.879 Potato five ifif you five car CD talk station. It 7 00:00:16.960 --> 00:00:19.600 being Monday, it's that time of week. Get to hear 8 00:00:19.640 --> 00:00:23.280 Where'm from all Worth Financials, Brian James, financial planner. He 9 00:00:23.359 --> 00:00:25.960 is talking about money matters. It is money Monday time. 10 00:00:26.039 --> 00:00:27.879 Brian James, Welcome back to the Morning show. Great to 11 00:00:27.879 --> 00:00:28.719 hear from you, my friend. 12 00:00:29.079 --> 00:00:31.320 Absolutely good to hear your voice too. It's a rainy 13 00:00:31.359 --> 00:00:33.479 money Monday. So let's sit and tide and talk about 14 00:00:33.560 --> 00:00:34.200 numbers and boring. 15 00:00:34.479 --> 00:00:37.560 Yeah, inflation, let's talk inflation. Let's show whether or not 16 00:00:37.799 --> 00:00:40.079 it's gonna impact the Fed's decision to cut interest rates 17 00:00:40.159 --> 00:00:42.840 or not, as the case may be. But the background 18 00:00:42.840 --> 00:00:45.560 of all this is the uh, the Trump trade wars, 19 00:00:45.640 --> 00:00:48.799 the the tariffs he's been levying or then taking off, 20 00:00:48.840 --> 00:00:50.240 as the case may be. It seems to be like 21 00:00:50.280 --> 00:00:53.240 a constantly moving target, you know, announces tariffs one day 22 00:00:53.240 --> 00:00:55.119 and then he says, well, I'm gonna pause him, give 23 00:00:55.200 --> 00:00:57.479 us time to negotiate or talk and you kind of 24 00:00:57.479 --> 00:00:59.439 a you never really quite have a grip of which 25 00:00:59.479 --> 00:01:02.880 directions going to go. But thus far, I think the 26 00:01:02.920 --> 00:01:05.799 general consensus, at least from what I've read no economist 27 00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:09.680 am I, is that thus far the tariffs really haven't 28 00:01:09.719 --> 00:01:12.560 impacted you and me on a day to day basis. 29 00:01:12.599 --> 00:01:13.519 The way everyone was. 30 00:01:13.480 --> 00:01:15.560 So frightened that it would, oh my god, the prices 31 00:01:15.560 --> 00:01:18.000 are going to go through the roof. Well that's not 32 00:01:18.200 --> 00:01:21.920 yet necessarily been the case, has it. Yeah, things that 33 00:01:21.959 --> 00:01:24.959 make Jerown Powell go hmmm. So we've seen this. 34 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:28.400 We're now starting to see numbers coming out that were 35 00:01:28.640 --> 00:01:31.680 far enough past the tariff announcements and the actual presence 36 00:01:31.680 --> 00:01:33.480 of those tariffs. Remember, the announcement of the tariff and 37 00:01:33.519 --> 00:01:35.439 the actual tariff are two very different things, right, as 38 00:01:35.439 --> 00:01:39.280 we've learned. But June's CPI is forecasted to rise about 39 00:01:39.280 --> 00:01:41.799 a third of a percent month over month for both 40 00:01:41.840 --> 00:01:44.319 headline and core numbers. Remember those are the there's two 41 00:01:44.359 --> 00:01:46.519 different CPI figures that we all like to look at. 42 00:01:46.840 --> 00:01:49.560 This is the first real tangible impact we've seen from 43 00:01:50.120 --> 00:01:53.359 this new round of Trump era tariffs in getting core 44 00:01:53.400 --> 00:01:55.879 inflation near three percent annually. So it's kind of moving 45 00:01:55.920 --> 00:01:58.439 away from the target. The FED wants to be in 46 00:01:58.799 --> 00:02:01.400 the two percent range. That's what really makes Jerome Powell 47 00:02:01.640 --> 00:02:04.079 happy in the morning. But we're not there. And well, 48 00:02:04.079 --> 00:02:06.280 this to your point, this is not terrible. This is 49 00:02:06.319 --> 00:02:09.400 not a massive spike as some had prognosticated over the 50 00:02:09.439 --> 00:02:11.599 past few months. But at the same time, up is 51 00:02:11.639 --> 00:02:14.000 not down, and we're higher than the Federal Reserve once. 52 00:02:14.240 --> 00:02:17.199 So at the moment, Jerome Powell has a bit of 53 00:02:17.199 --> 00:02:19.840 a dilemma in terms of which which battle does he fight? 54 00:02:20.199 --> 00:02:22.919 Is he gonna fight inflation because this is also coming 55 00:02:22.919 --> 00:02:26.560 alongside a slightly weakening labor market, so things do seem 56 00:02:26.599 --> 00:02:27.520 to be cooling off. 57 00:02:27.840 --> 00:02:28.680 This is a tough one. 58 00:02:28.800 --> 00:02:30.319 I'm kind of glad that I don't have I don't 59 00:02:30.319 --> 00:02:32.439 have his job right now, because he's really got two 60 00:02:32.479 --> 00:02:34.360 forces pulling in the opposite direction on him. 61 00:02:34.439 --> 00:02:36.879 Well, I mean, are we entering like a nineteen seventies 62 00:02:36.960 --> 00:02:38.680 kind of situation with stagflation? 63 00:02:39.560 --> 00:02:40.000 No, I don't. 64 00:02:40.000 --> 00:02:42.520 I don't think we're there yet. You know, my crystal 65 00:02:42.520 --> 00:02:44.560 ball is as foggy as anybody else's. But I don't 66 00:02:44.599 --> 00:02:47.240 think this is this yet has all the same impacts 67 00:02:47.800 --> 00:02:50.719 that full stagflation did. And the reason that we one 68 00:02:50.759 --> 00:02:53.120 of the reasons I believe personally, is because there are 69 00:02:53.240 --> 00:02:57.080 so many catalysts Brian of ways that we make money 70 00:02:57.120 --> 00:03:00.240 now compared to the seventies, And I'm just thinking of 71 00:03:00.280 --> 00:03:03.680 things like, you know, the seventies, we didn't have a 72 00:03:03.719 --> 00:03:06.080 whole lot of innovation compared to what we have now. 73 00:03:06.199 --> 00:03:08.039 That's a good think of the last twenty years. We 74 00:03:08.080 --> 00:03:10.319 had the Internet come up, and we've had AI, We've 75 00:03:10.319 --> 00:03:13.080 had a real estate spike, we had COVID that drove, 76 00:03:13.159 --> 00:03:15.039 you know, the work from home technology and all this stuff. 77 00:03:15.039 --> 00:03:17.280 Everything is a catalyst that somebody makes money off of. 78 00:03:17.360 --> 00:03:20.560 So that stuff, I think currently knocking on wood furiously 79 00:03:20.919 --> 00:03:23.360 is offsetting the downsides of what we're going through. 80 00:03:23.759 --> 00:03:25.879 That's interesting. I never really looked at it that way. 81 00:03:25.919 --> 00:03:28.400 A lot of job opportunities that just didn't exist, and 82 00:03:28.439 --> 00:03:31.000 we've created a whole new economy since the nineteen seventies, 83 00:03:31.039 --> 00:03:33.800 which was I guess more rooted in a traditional I 84 00:03:33.800 --> 00:03:37.400 guess more manufacturing type economy, and thus the problems we 85 00:03:37.479 --> 00:03:38.439 faced in the seventies. 86 00:03:39.120 --> 00:03:42.800 Yeah, that's right, And there was just a different environment 87 00:03:42.840 --> 00:03:45.560 in terms of how we recovered from things so we 88 00:03:45.639 --> 00:03:49.280 had spikes in oil prices, and of course that was 89 00:03:49.319 --> 00:03:52.719 a lot of that too, was driven by the President. 90 00:03:52.800 --> 00:03:55.039 Nixon wanted to drive interest rates down because he had 91 00:03:55.039 --> 00:03:57.520 an election coming up and he wanted happy people putting 92 00:03:57.560 --> 00:03:59.879 their votes into their ballot boxes, and so he pushed 93 00:04:00.240 --> 00:04:02.960 hard for low interest rates, and that spiked a lot 94 00:04:03.000 --> 00:04:06.400 of demand, which resulted in Paul Volker coming to the 95 00:04:06.439 --> 00:04:09.240 rescue with his Superman cape in the late seventies early eighties, 96 00:04:09.599 --> 00:04:13.319 forcing us into a pretty significant recession that then settled 97 00:04:13.319 --> 00:04:15.800 back down into this two to three percent range that 98 00:04:15.840 --> 00:04:17.879 we over the past forty years have determined as kind 99 00:04:17.920 --> 00:04:19.920 of the right happy place to be, because over the 100 00:04:20.000 --> 00:04:22.759 last forty years it hasn't been that crazy economically speaking 101 00:04:22.800 --> 00:04:24.879 when you compare it to the nineteen seventies. So we've 102 00:04:24.959 --> 00:04:27.360 kind of concluded that, okay, that must be the right 103 00:04:27.399 --> 00:04:30.560 place to be balanced, but it takes some sacrifices to get. 104 00:04:30.399 --> 00:04:31.319 There, all right. 105 00:04:31.360 --> 00:04:35.839 So we have this point three percent predicted figure for 106 00:04:36.000 --> 00:04:39.600 the consumer price that's supposed to come out today. Core 107 00:04:39.680 --> 00:04:42.040 rate that strips out food and energy also predicted to 108 00:04:42.040 --> 00:04:44.839 B point three, which makes it higher than the fetid 109 00:04:44.920 --> 00:04:47.519 hope because that would push it past the two percent 110 00:04:47.560 --> 00:04:50.240 goal and closer to three percent if it remain on 111 00:04:50.240 --> 00:04:50.879 this trajectory. 112 00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:53.040 If I got that right, that's correct, if you're on 113 00:04:53.079 --> 00:04:54.160 the right path. 114 00:04:54.000 --> 00:05:00.680 All right now, to lower interest rates be to add 115 00:05:00.680 --> 00:05:05.319 fuel to the fire of the inflationary numbers leads. That's 116 00:05:05.360 --> 00:05:06.160 what they always say. 117 00:05:06.199 --> 00:05:09.040 Correct, that's correct, exactly right, and that's what Trump wants. 118 00:05:09.079 --> 00:05:11.000 Trump has been talking about rates aren't low enough. He 119 00:05:11.120 --> 00:05:13.519 said that all the way through, and I honestly, I 120 00:05:13.519 --> 00:05:16.639 think I'd wear a tinfoil hat sometimes, but especially when 121 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:19.319 it comes to politicians of every flavor, because everybody at 122 00:05:19.319 --> 00:05:21.000 the end of the day is just out for votes. 123 00:05:21.040 --> 00:05:23.560 That's all because they got to stay in their jobs. Anyway, 124 00:05:23.839 --> 00:05:26.040 I think it's a sexy thing to talk about interest rates. 125 00:05:26.079 --> 00:05:28.800 We've all become fixated with interest rates because we've we've 126 00:05:28.839 --> 00:05:31.079 fallen in love with the idea of refinancing our mortgages 127 00:05:31.120 --> 00:05:33.000 over and over again, and we feel entitled to these 128 00:05:33.000 --> 00:05:35.839 two to three percent mortgages. Therefore, if I'm a politician, 129 00:05:36.079 --> 00:05:38.360 it makes sense for me to just talk about lower rates. 130 00:05:38.600 --> 00:05:40.160 All you need is the SoundBite. I don't need to 131 00:05:40.160 --> 00:05:42.920 get into the possible downsides of having rates too low 132 00:05:42.920 --> 00:05:44.480 for too long. We saw that in the seventies, and 133 00:05:44.480 --> 00:05:46.040 I'm going to talk about that. I'm just going to 134 00:05:46.079 --> 00:05:48.199 trigger people's memories that, hey, I really liked when I 135 00:05:48.199 --> 00:05:51.160 could refinance my mortgage over and over again, so that 136 00:05:51.199 --> 00:05:53.279 can possibly win me votes. That's going to be the 137 00:05:53.360 --> 00:05:54.079 drum that I beat. 138 00:05:54.199 --> 00:05:54.759 Yeah, you know. 139 00:05:54.800 --> 00:05:56.920 And the other the sort of the side cul de 140 00:05:57.040 --> 00:05:59.480 sac on that point is if interest rates were back 141 00:05:59.519 --> 00:06:02.600 down to three for mortgages, I think it would probably 142 00:06:02.639 --> 00:06:05.839 exacerbate the already problem shortage of housing we have. There'd 143 00:06:05.839 --> 00:06:08.240 be more people out there wanting to buy, which of 144 00:06:08.240 --> 00:06:10.519 course drive the limited inventory prices up. 145 00:06:10.959 --> 00:06:11.160 Yeah. 146 00:06:11.160 --> 00:06:13.199 The people who would be happiest are the ones who 147 00:06:13.199 --> 00:06:15.920 bought a house anyway, knowing full well that it's not 148 00:06:16.040 --> 00:06:18.000 as good of an environment as it was over the 149 00:06:18.040 --> 00:06:20.160 past ten to fifteen years, but they were sort of 150 00:06:20.199 --> 00:06:22.480 gambling that rates are going to come down, I can refinance. 151 00:06:22.560 --> 00:06:25.199 Those people would be really, really happy. It's the people 152 00:06:25.199 --> 00:06:27.839 who are furiously trying to build up a down payment 153 00:06:27.839 --> 00:06:29.639 to buy their first home that are going to take 154 00:06:29.639 --> 00:06:31.680 it right in the face because it's just going to 155 00:06:31.720 --> 00:06:33.759 get slightly more, you know, more and more expensive as 156 00:06:33.759 --> 00:06:34.319 it already is. 157 00:06:34.720 --> 00:06:38.319 Yeah, there's no end insight to that one now. And 158 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:42.600 back to inflation. The idea that Trump just announced over 159 00:06:42.639 --> 00:06:44.800 the weekend, he's going to put a thirty percent terarify 160 00:06:44.800 --> 00:06:46.959 on goods from the European Union and Mexico and that 161 00:06:47.079 --> 00:06:49.519 kicks in August first, obviously giving him a couple of 162 00:06:49.600 --> 00:06:52.439 week winded and negotiate, which I presume that's what he wants. 163 00:06:53.360 --> 00:06:56.680 That hasn't been factored into the situation, has it yet? No, 164 00:06:56.839 --> 00:06:58.959 not really, But at the same time, I think we're 165 00:06:59.040 --> 00:06:59.800 used to this, right. 166 00:06:59.839 --> 00:07:03.399 So remember back in April, the market hit an absolute bottom, 167 00:07:03.399 --> 00:07:05.240 and it hit it hard in early April, and that 168 00:07:05.360 --> 00:07:07.879 was the initial panic over oh my gosh, these tariffs 169 00:07:07.879 --> 00:07:10.120 are huge, one hundred and forty percent on stuff coming 170 00:07:10.160 --> 00:07:12.560 out of China and we're changing them every other day. 171 00:07:12.639 --> 00:07:13.480 Panic, panic, panic. 172 00:07:13.600 --> 00:07:16.000 Well then we realized, okay, wait a minute, that maybe 173 00:07:16.079 --> 00:07:18.639 we're not going to actually tear off band aids like 174 00:07:18.680 --> 00:07:20.639 it felt like we were going to. We're gonna kind of, 175 00:07:21.079 --> 00:07:23.120 you know, put these thirty day delays and all that 176 00:07:23.160 --> 00:07:25.360 kind of stuff on it. So the market is kind 177 00:07:25.360 --> 00:07:27.879 of winking at all this, it's just kind of ignoring it. 178 00:07:27.920 --> 00:07:29.600 You know whatever, let me know when you're done and 179 00:07:29.639 --> 00:07:31.439 you've decided, then the market will tell us what it's 180 00:07:31.439 --> 00:07:33.480 going to do. So, you know, futures as we're sitting 181 00:07:33.480 --> 00:07:35.240 here right now, are down a little bit for the morning, 182 00:07:35.759 --> 00:07:37.759 but not nearly as much as they would have been 183 00:07:37.959 --> 00:07:41.240 when these first tariff announcements came out months ago, when 184 00:07:41.240 --> 00:07:43.879 we were first getting used to our new chaotic reality. 185 00:07:44.079 --> 00:07:47.319 Well, and maybe that's because they didn't stick around for 186 00:07:47.360 --> 00:07:48.920 a long time. That was like, you know, Trump would 187 00:07:48.920 --> 00:07:50.560 announce them and the market will react, and then he 188 00:07:50.560 --> 00:07:51.920 would say, now I'm going to put a hold on 189 00:07:52.000 --> 00:07:55.240 those and withdraw them and again for the purpose of negotiating. 190 00:07:55.480 --> 00:07:58.319 Sitting in the negotiation table, it's all I guess can 191 00:07:58.360 --> 00:08:00.519 be made of why they're on in, they're off, and 192 00:08:00.560 --> 00:08:04.120 they're on, and they're off again. But you can't factor 193 00:08:04.160 --> 00:08:06.079 that in. If you don't have any idea which direction 194 00:08:06.120 --> 00:08:08.040 the tariffs are going to go, how do you forecast 195 00:08:08.079 --> 00:08:08.639 the future? 196 00:08:08.680 --> 00:08:09.680 He just can't do it. 197 00:08:10.000 --> 00:08:12.519 You know, I picture, you know, being mugged in an alley. 198 00:08:12.560 --> 00:08:14.920 If I jab my knife at you, you're probably going 199 00:08:15.000 --> 00:08:17.160 to be more willing to hand me over your wallet 200 00:08:17.240 --> 00:08:19.160 without me having to do any damage. That's really all 201 00:08:19.199 --> 00:08:20.720 we do, over and over and over again. It's just 202 00:08:20.720 --> 00:08:23.519 a negotiation. As ugly as it sounds, it truly is. 203 00:08:24.079 --> 00:08:24.319 Well. 204 00:08:24.439 --> 00:08:26.360 I know that the Wall Street journalist said the economists 205 00:08:26.519 --> 00:08:30.079 economists are seeing a lower recession risk with stronger job growth. 206 00:08:30.079 --> 00:08:32.720 That's Wall Street journal survey of the economists that they 207 00:08:32.759 --> 00:08:36.120 talk to. So I mean it's like a mixed bag 208 00:08:36.159 --> 00:08:37.919 of news and all this, Brian, I guess that's why 209 00:08:37.919 --> 00:08:41.080 there's so much confusion in terms of which direction we're 210 00:08:41.120 --> 00:08:43.120 going to go in terms of rate interest rates. 211 00:08:43.399 --> 00:08:45.799 Yeah, and this is very much a popcorn making time 212 00:08:45.840 --> 00:08:47.399 for the rest of us who do not have to 213 00:08:47.399 --> 00:08:50.159 make these decisions on that benefit or harm the rest 214 00:08:50.159 --> 00:08:52.000 of the world. Again, I go back to Jerome Powell. 215 00:08:52.039 --> 00:08:53.480 I don't know how the man sleeps at night. He's 216 00:08:53.960 --> 00:08:56.559 he's in a world where you know, again, he's got 217 00:08:56.559 --> 00:08:59.200 those two forces pulling an opposite direction, and he's the 218 00:08:59.200 --> 00:09:01.240 one who has to side which lever to pull in 219 00:09:01.320 --> 00:09:02.200 which button to push. 220 00:09:02.200 --> 00:09:03.840 So I do not envy that man right now. 221 00:09:03.960 --> 00:09:05.960 No, No, he's in quite a conunder. We'll talk more 222 00:09:05.960 --> 00:09:08.639 about this with Brian James from all Worth Financial that 223 00:09:08.879 --> 00:09:13.000 and I guess we also have some of the big 224 00:09:13.039 --> 00:09:16.320 beautiful tax breaks, maybe a little bit smaller than people anticipated. 225 00:09:16.320 --> 00:09:19.600 In the BBB Brian James will continue after this word 226 00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:22.000 for plumb tight plumbing, plumbing done right. It's always plumbing 227 00:09:22.039 --> 00:09:24.919 done right. They live by that model. You get outstanding plumbers, 228 00:09:25.080 --> 00:09:29.159 outstanding customer service. They know that you deserve better and 229 00:09:29.200 --> 00:09:31.000 that's what their goal is to give you better in 230 00:09:31.039 --> 00:09:33.399 terms of your plumbing experience. 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Done the money Monday thing 254 00:10:40.399 --> 00:10:44.639 with Brian James Smallworth Financial. Going back to the conundrum 255 00:10:44.639 --> 00:10:46.320 and the problem that Jerome Powell is in such a 256 00:10:46.360 --> 00:10:51.000 position you mentioned it in this article addresses it. The 257 00:10:51.039 --> 00:10:53.039 one who provided me The FED is to mandates. It 258 00:10:53.080 --> 00:10:54.759 can be at odds, and they're at odds now keep 259 00:10:54.759 --> 00:10:57.879 inflation in check and supporting the labor market. So to 260 00:10:57.960 --> 00:11:00.759 keep inflation in check. If it's run too hot, they 261 00:11:00.840 --> 00:11:04.159 raise rates to slow demand. Okay, when the labor market 262 00:11:04.200 --> 00:11:07.159 starts to drop off, they cut rates to boost barring 263 00:11:07.200 --> 00:11:10.679 and spending and thus in turn hiring. But you've got 264 00:11:10.679 --> 00:11:12.320 both going on at the same time. You have a 265 00:11:12.320 --> 00:11:14.919 cooling labor market as has been reflected, and you have 266 00:11:15.080 --> 00:11:17.600 a little bit warmer inflation number as you mentioned, it 267 00:11:17.639 --> 00:11:19.919 was point three or is reportedly going to be point 268 00:11:19.919 --> 00:11:21.960 three for the month to higher than the two percent 269 00:11:22.000 --> 00:11:27.399 annual trajectory. So it suggests, I mean, the answer seems 270 00:11:27.399 --> 00:11:28.919 to me to be just don't touch the rates at 271 00:11:28.960 --> 00:11:31.639 all at this point, rather than lower them or increase them, 272 00:11:31.679 --> 00:11:36.440 which nobody really is talking much about. Why would you 273 00:11:36.519 --> 00:11:38.720 even do anything to them right now if you have 274 00:11:38.799 --> 00:11:42.200 no clear vision of the future on this, Brian James, Yeah. 275 00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:44.600 At the moment, we're not at a point. Again, I'm 276 00:11:44.600 --> 00:11:46.559 not Jerome Powell. I'm not responsible for this. So this 277 00:11:46.639 --> 00:11:49.720 is really you know, me sitting off on the sidelines, 278 00:11:49.960 --> 00:11:53.399 being an armchair fed chair. But so yeah, I don't 279 00:11:53.399 --> 00:11:55.039 think we're at a point where we have to go 280 00:11:55.120 --> 00:11:57.639 one direction or the other, you know, with the exception 281 00:11:57.879 --> 00:12:02.240 of the pressure from the White House is enormous, of course, 282 00:12:02.320 --> 00:12:04.440 because this has been, like I said, this has been 283 00:12:04.559 --> 00:12:07.639 a campaign plank for President Trump for both of his 284 00:12:08.120 --> 00:12:10.559 both of his terms, and when he was not in office, 285 00:12:10.559 --> 00:12:12.799 he was still talking about it, right, always being that 286 00:12:12.879 --> 00:12:14.840 rates need to go lower, lower, lower, We'll worry about 287 00:12:14.840 --> 00:12:17.320 the rest later. So at the moment, I think it's 288 00:12:17.360 --> 00:12:19.840 it's kind of it's relatively easy for fed chair pal 289 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:22.720 to not do anything about it because of those things 290 00:12:22.720 --> 00:12:26.360 that could happen, and the benefits would not outweigh the risks. 291 00:12:26.440 --> 00:12:28.279 Currently we're kind of at a bit of a balance, 292 00:12:28.399 --> 00:12:30.039 and that's what we're seeing in the stock and bond market. 293 00:12:30.039 --> 00:12:32.559 It's fairly knock on wood quiet time right now. But 294 00:12:32.679 --> 00:12:35.200 later in the year, later in September, if these if 295 00:12:35.240 --> 00:12:38.039 these trends continue, in other words, if the labor market 296 00:12:38.080 --> 00:12:41.639 continues to weaken and we continue to have the other 297 00:12:41.639 --> 00:12:44.120 things happening on the inflationary side, then he's probably going 298 00:12:44.200 --> 00:12:45.720 to have to make a move in one direction or 299 00:12:45.720 --> 00:12:47.159 another and lay his cards on the table. 300 00:12:47.279 --> 00:12:49.240 Well, it's right now, we're we're kind of stableish. 301 00:12:49.279 --> 00:12:51.759 But if that happens, in other words, inflation continues on 302 00:12:51.799 --> 00:12:54.080 its current upward trajectory and the labor market is on 303 00:12:54.120 --> 00:12:56.240 the downward trajectory, the likelihood that the rates are going 304 00:12:56.279 --> 00:12:59.759 to get lowered is slim and none, because that'll have 305 00:12:59.879 --> 00:13:03.120 a profound impact on inflation. At least that's what they say. 306 00:13:03.159 --> 00:13:05.360 Because and this is the other thing I wanted to 307 00:13:05.360 --> 00:13:08.080 test and find out what your perception is. The import 308 00:13:08.159 --> 00:13:12.480 taxes haven't yet crept into the consumer prices because apparently 309 00:13:12.559 --> 00:13:16.759 companies were front loading inventory because they anticipated these tariffs 310 00:13:16.840 --> 00:13:19.080 kicking in, so they've pre ordered a whole bunch of 311 00:13:19.120 --> 00:13:21.559 stuff in late two thousand and four, in twenty twenty five. 312 00:13:22.039 --> 00:13:24.480 But it's pointed out eventually they're gonna have to start 313 00:13:24.519 --> 00:13:27.519 passing on higher prices to consumers because their inventories are 314 00:13:27.559 --> 00:13:29.440 gonna run low and they're gonna have to start buying 315 00:13:29.519 --> 00:13:31.320 more stuff in things that they're gonna be subject to 316 00:13:31.320 --> 00:13:33.759 the tariff. So, I mean, if anybody, if this is 317 00:13:33.799 --> 00:13:37.320 an accurate assessment of the landscape, you know, prices are 318 00:13:37.320 --> 00:13:38.000 gonna go up. 319 00:13:38.399 --> 00:13:40.399 They're gonna have to. There's really no other choice. 320 00:13:40.399 --> 00:13:44.159 You're right, because because again we're as I said earlier, 321 00:13:44.360 --> 00:13:46.919 we've been calm over this reletive. Once we got over 322 00:13:46.919 --> 00:13:48.960 the initial shock that we're gonna start talking about tariffs 323 00:13:49.039 --> 00:13:50.639 very loudly. That was back in April, and then we 324 00:13:50.679 --> 00:13:52.919 realized it's not gonna it wasn't It's not as scary 325 00:13:52.919 --> 00:13:55.240 as it sounds because we really haven't seen the impact yet. 326 00:13:55.320 --> 00:13:58.679 Now we're riding the wave of prices that were locked in, 327 00:13:58.679 --> 00:14:00.840 as you just pointed out in Q four of last 328 00:14:00.919 --> 00:14:03.480 year and Q one of this year in anticipation. So 329 00:14:03.679 --> 00:14:05.960 things are still stable, but we're not truly in a 330 00:14:06.080 --> 00:14:10.360 full tariff oriented reality that's coming over the next several months. 331 00:14:10.639 --> 00:14:13.039 And if we if we really want to follow what 332 00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:16.039 the President says in lower rates, then that is going 333 00:14:16.120 --> 00:14:18.960 to provide opportunities for businesses to make more money. And 334 00:14:19.000 --> 00:14:21.200 they're going to They're definitely going to push that because 335 00:14:21.200 --> 00:14:23.200 it's what they do. It's, you know, what they should do. 336 00:14:23.240 --> 00:14:24.919 But on the other hand, they are not the ones 337 00:14:24.960 --> 00:14:28.360 responsible for keeping inflation in check. That falls to That 338 00:14:28.440 --> 00:14:31.120 falls to the Fed chair, and he's going to have 339 00:14:31.159 --> 00:14:33.440 to make some tough decisions in terms of guiding us 340 00:14:33.440 --> 00:14:33.879 through all that. 341 00:14:33.960 --> 00:14:35.159 Well, he's just got to wait and see what the 342 00:14:35.200 --> 00:14:37.320 teriffs do it if they even go into effect. Again, 343 00:14:37.399 --> 00:14:40.679 thirty percent announce kicked in August first for quite a 344 00:14:40.720 --> 00:14:44.320 number of our trading partners, and again the logical conclusion 345 00:14:44.480 --> 00:14:48.360 is that we'll raise prices ergo lowering rates when a 346 00:14:48.399 --> 00:14:52.120 time of rising prices is a recipe for rapid runaway inflation, 347 00:14:52.240 --> 00:14:55.039 which Donald Trump mean Donald Trump campaigned on lowering inflation. 348 00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:57.120 It's going to do the exact opposite of what he promised, 349 00:14:57.159 --> 00:14:59.840 and as we run into the you know, the next 350 00:15:00.000 --> 00:15:01.960 election cycle, that's not going to be a real good 351 00:15:01.960 --> 00:15:04.679 thing happened in Brian James. If you're hopefully hoping for 352 00:15:04.720 --> 00:15:06.559 the best for the Republicans anyway. 353 00:15:06.360 --> 00:15:07.840 And I'll hope for the best for all of us, 354 00:15:07.840 --> 00:15:10.120 which is, if you find a way to get along, 355 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:11.960 then maybe we'd be we'd be in a better spot. 356 00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:14.000 But yeah, and I think the other challenging thing is 357 00:15:14.519 --> 00:15:17.440 betcher Pal doesn't get to change interest rates today and 358 00:15:17.480 --> 00:15:18.960 then make and then reverse. 359 00:15:18.639 --> 00:15:21.360 The change tomorrow. That's right. Trump apparently does, so that's. 360 00:15:21.320 --> 00:15:23.679 That's he's gonna Pal's gonna have to wait until the 361 00:15:23.759 --> 00:15:26.320 dust truly truly settles on this, because his decisions are 362 00:15:26.399 --> 00:15:28.759 much more permanent and long lasting than a day and 363 00:15:28.799 --> 00:15:29.200 a half. 364 00:15:29.080 --> 00:15:29.799 Worth of tariffs. 365 00:15:29.919 --> 00:15:32.159 Well, and I suppose in the background there's always the 366 00:15:32.200 --> 00:15:34.600 notion that just threatening the thirty percent teriffs will at 367 00:15:34.639 --> 00:15:37.000 least bring folks to the negotiation table and maybe we'll 368 00:15:37.080 --> 00:15:39.000 end up with a better deal. Before anything kicks in 369 00:15:39.039 --> 00:15:42.679 and ultimately impacts inflation, one can only pray that we 370 00:15:42.720 --> 00:15:45.159 get that kind of resolution. Brian James, let's continue with 371 00:15:45.200 --> 00:15:47.240 you and some of the big beautiful tax breaks a 372 00:15:47.279 --> 00:15:50.799 little bit smaller than some anticipated. One more with Money 373 00:15:50.840 --> 00:15:53.600 Monday's Brian James. It's a twenty five right now, fifty 374 00:15:53.600 --> 00:15:57.320 five Karsity Talk station. A great word for Susette. Loves 375 00:15:57.360 --> 00:16:01.080 the camp, just outstanding of what she does. That's mortgage business. 376 00:16:01.440 --> 00:16:04.320 Any of the fifty states plus Puerto Rico, you can 377 00:16:04.360 --> 00:16:06.799 benefit from the services of Suzette Low's Camp with Cross 378 00:16:06.799 --> 00:16:09.000 Country Mortgage. You need a mortgage, you want to buy 379 00:16:09.039 --> 00:16:11.600 a house, called Suzette Up. She is your broker. She's 380 00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:13.399 on your side of the table. 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