Speaker 1: You are alive, my friend.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang,
and today is a special one. It is our eleventh
birthday as a company and we couldnt be more excited
on this Monday to celebrate it with you, because honestly,
we wouldn't be here without you guys. So first off,
thank you so much and happy birthday to wager Talk.
For more than a decade, we've been breaking down games,
recording videos, podcast cashing tickets, helping you guys turn your
bankrolls into a business. And we're just getting started. Eleven
more years sounds good. So on today's show, we'll get
some thoughts on NFL preseason, if we can take anything
away into the regular season. We will have MLBN of
course college football look ahead. So let's celebrate eleven years
the right way by finding some winners. And let's start
off with Gianni and we're gonna talk to Steam Report
after that, crack Man's gonna join us, and then Steve
Merrill's gonna join us for Padres, Mariners and college football
Nebraska and Cincinnati. So hit the like button celebrate eleven
years let's get off to a good start this week. Johnny,
Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend. How are
you today, excited?
Speaker 3: Man, great, great weekend. I'm just sending out a plus
two forty tennis bet two subscribers. I'll make sure you
guys bet that quickly. You know, those lines don't stay
up quick. But more importantly, we had college football Week
zero as expected. Man, I'm really in with this football
season in the NFL and college football groups that I'm
working with. I'm so excited. We released only eight bets
hit sixty four percent of those A nice ROI so
great launch. Usually that's the toughest week that Week zero
because those lines have been up for so long, but
we were able to turn a profit, which is beautiful.
And yeah, UFC turned the profit there. So yeah, it's
been a good seven days, good good week. And well
here's what we got today.
Speaker 2: I have a.
Speaker 3: WMBA but there was only one big steam play that
confirmed on the side that I like, so I gave that.
I put that out to subscribers already as a four
percent best bet. I only have fifty WNBA bets the
entire twenty twenty five season. Number one in profit hitting
sixty nine percent of those and this is a four
percent and since we're having the eleventh anniversary, I put
it for eleven dollars. That's over there at wage you're tall.
We have college football. I'd like to go over to
Thursday and Friday steam because I won't be here tomorrow
and Wednesday with Contender series and bed on it, and
then later in the week we could cover some of
the big board on Saturday. And then of course there's
Major League Baseball as well.
Speaker 2: Today, well, let's jump into college football. Let's go over
Thursday and Friday, seeing some pretty interesting moves, a couple
of aggressive ones through some key numbers. What are you
seeing on your end?
Speaker 3: College football?
Speaker 2: Yeah, college football Thursdayeah.
Speaker 3: Here's what you got to remember with these with week one,
a lot of these lines have also been off for
a while, like back in July and early August, so
a lot of the valley you've been extracted. And more importantly,
like I talked about with Kansas and Fresno State, once
the line moves significantly, you start seeing resistance or a
group coming in on the other side. You got to
pay attention to that, because again, the information continues to
come in and when you're betting something in July, by
late August, a lot of things can change. But here's
what we have so far for Thursday and Friday, NC
State minus eleven and a half all the way to
minus thirteen. Those got bet in late July and early August.
Also on Thursday, same situation. Rutgers from minus eleven all
the way to minus thirteen, but then on Friday. Michigan
State gets hit in July late July up minus seventeen
and a half and then hit again this morning at
minus twenty. That's why you're seeing minus twenty one. That's
when you want to see when you're betting these early
moves in college football, and more importantly, when you're looking
for confirmation, you want to see follows rule. That's key.
When you don't see resistance and it gets through that
number like a number like twenty twenty one and you're
not seeing take back, that's a strong side for that move.
So that's what we have in college football. Again, it's light,
but that's Thursday and Friday. We go over Saturday later
in the week.
Speaker 2: Love it, love it. Listen. I only had one play
in UFC and if you turn to profit UFC on
this card that does it take your money and run.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and don't look back. Don't look for that.
Speaker 2: At landminds all over it. So I was happy to
stick with UH, stick with one and O. I think
as a company we did really good in UFC. So
that was that was good. Yeah, only a couple of
games in w NBA. I'll do a prop here for
that later. Let's move to baseball and take a look
at UH at some of these lines. Only one that's
a little confusing to me. But interested on your take,
and I'll ask you about the about the about the
line that confuses me. So what do you say?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: Keep in mind nine am Pacific time in on the
West coast. But here's what we got with some of
the overnights in early Major League baseball moves. Nine fifty
one under eight Atlanta, Miami, nine fifty five under eight, Arizona, Milwaukee,
good the minus one twenty one to twenty five, both
of those nine fifty seven, Pittsburgh plus one twenty five
nine sixty Dodgers minus one thirty one, nine sixty eight
White Sox plus one twenty nine sixty nine Angels plus
one sixty nine to seventy two the athletics at even money.
Keep in mind, keep in mind, this is that time
of the year where you're gonna see a lot of
two way action on the money lines, a lot of manipulation.
Most of the recreational betters attention has now shifted. It's
now on college football in NFL, which we are now
awaiting the regular season.
Speaker 2: To kick off.
Speaker 3: Because of that, it's more or less the betting synd
against sharps versus the books. That means you're gonna see
a lot of manipulation. You're gonna see a lot of
lines moving in one direction then coming back the other way,
some of them being dummied up for the real hit
to get bet later. You kind of saw that with Pittsburgh.
If you're just looking at the line, move where it opened,
where it sits now, you're gonna say, wait, how did
Pittsburgh get hit? But if you check Odd's logic or
at minimum the wage you talk three odds, and you
click that game, you'll notice it did get that at
one twenty five mark one twenty seven. I think that's
when they jumped in, took the one twenty sevens out
took the one twenty fives out and it almost looks
like there's no movement at all from the opener to
where it sits now. But it's that dummying up that
you can do for minimal amounts of money, especially with overnights.
Speaker 2: I'm curious in this line move on the Atlanta Miami game.
If you have any information on this, why why would
it have moved just slightly to the under. You got
two pitchers that are getting shelled recently, and I see
it opened at eight. Now it's down to seven and
a half. One book even has seven. Uh, if you
have anything on that game, let me know, because that
one just confuses me.
Speaker 3: Here's what I can tell you that right as of
break now you have about one I can't even say
like ninety nine. It's like one hundred percent of the
bets that have been booked on it not sharp accounts.
This isn't bots are on the over in Atlanta, so
you know, so the betters are taken over, but that
undergot hit got the respect. So that's one of those
kind of games where you have the sharps on one
side the public on the other, and it's tough to
make a reef because you're like, wait, The public seems
to have this one right, right, Like, how are these
two teams going to put up less than eight runs?
Especially when you look at this pitch and matchup with
a guy for Atlanta has a ten point three e
er in his last five starts and Miami's not too
much better. You know, gave up what four runs last start,
five earned runs to start before that, So at least
on paper, it looks like it's an over. But I
think that maybe some recency bias there that they may
be look that, you know what I mean? Like, yeah,
never as good as you look, as bad as you're looking.
You have two pictures coming off games where they look horrific.
And maybe again I'm not I'm just guessing right now,
but that's the only thing that could stick out to
me that maybe you see a little recency bias in
that total. But yeah, I wouldn't be going under seven
and a half right now. Eight maybe, But yeah, that
confuses me as well.
Speaker 2: It's like we said last week, the public's on one side,
the line moves the other. What could possibly go wrong? Yeah,
it's not like it seems like a sufire thing. Yeah,
there's nothing to this. I couldn't get easier than that
real quick. Johnny mentioned it earlier, guys, but we do
want to tell you all handicappers can put up a
play for eleven dollars today that we're celebrating the eleventh anniversary.
Giohnny has an eleven dollars play up. I have an
eleven dollars play up as well. It's an MLB team total,
but you can you can grab any handicappers. This is
like an extension of a five dollars Tuesday so and
then after tonight, for forty eight hours, you can take
eleven percent off of any package that you want. Use
a promo code eleven years, that's one to one year's,
three day passes, NFL, college football, you name it, take
eleven percent off. But we can start with eleven dollars today, Judy,
what was yours again?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I have ANBA play up that just got discounted sixty
seventy percent. All that I didn't know, but you could
have it, and I hope we cash it. I also
have my Week one college football package already up four
percent in there, three percent in there. I have a
five percent, but I'm not until I confirm it. I'm
not writing that there's a five percent on that because
a bunch of people are gonna buy it, then they're
gonna email support and say where's the five percent? So
until I get confirmation, it's a four percent package, which
wink wink, you may want to be locking in for
twenty nine dollars because there'll be thirty nine dollars as
soon as that five percent goes in there when confirmed.
And uh, yeah, season win totals are still up with
division winners and super Bowl futures for the NFL. That'll
come down Thursday day when the regular season kicks off
the following Thursday, that is. And yeah, I'll have my
baseball up in a little bit as well. So busy, busy,
busy week ahead Contender series tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Don't forget any takeaways real quick before we let you
go on NFL preseason. I don't know anything we can
take into regular season. Do we learn anything? Is it
business as usual? Just just curious your thoughts, I really do.
Speaker 3: I think you got to tuck it away, especially you
know after week one we're like, wait, everyone's approaching preseason
different this year. These teams care this amount, Like then
it's a small sample size of a couple of games,
So I think you need to tuck it away unless
there's some key injuries that that matter, especially in teams
that aren't deep. You want to look at that to
kind of take advanced circle. Those teams that come into
the season may not be healthy. Those teams that are
coming in extra healthy, maybe take advantage of that. Otherwise,
tuck it away, start fresh with week one, but more importantly,
be very patient because those Week one lines and NFL
have been up for months months months months months and
they even bet into buy a lot of short better,
So you want to be careful there.
Speaker 2: All right, Giohnny, thank you so much. Glad you had
a great weekend. Uh, good luck on Contender series tomorrow.
I'm not going to talk to you. Grab any swag
you can.
Speaker 3: I told you, I got you, bro, I got you.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 3: I haven't put it up yet. They do it like
around week maybe up now I'll go into grad. I
already got you one of these. You can't get these
perfect model day away from Tenders series water this I
got you from where I'm building you a little box.
Speaker 2: That's great. That's Greatni the Greek everybody, thank you so much.
We'll see you luck. All right. The Greek hit the
like button, guys, uh hit it, hit it for Giohnny.
He's always bringing the bringing the energy. So let's go
to crack man. Let's keep it rolling here, Let's get
some let's get some winners. He's got an MLB prop here.
Uh Bill. I'll pose the same question to you, NFL preseason.
Any takeaways from it or we done. It's out of
our it's out of our it's out of our brains.
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, it was a it was a different year,
you know a lot. I'm used to the last since
I've been bet in preseason professionally on a professional level,
because at first it wasn't years ago.
Speaker 1: There was so many questions about it.
Speaker 4: But now that social media is out and stuff and
you can follow these beat reporters and stuff, things have
been really good. I listen, I had a thank god
I recovered this week four and one on preseason football,
and they got me out for the season. So I'm
happy to have that. You know, a lot of good
first half information out there. In general, there's a lot
of good information out there, but the first weeks were listen,
a great line movement, you know, average three, four, five,
sixty seven even eight point moves and just didn't get
the money. So you know, we're very open, very honest
about that kind of thing. And I'm always transparent. I
always had full write ups on everything. So I'm like
Keihanny just said, though it's in the books, it's out.
The customers didn't get hurt.
Speaker 1: I'm glad about that. I'm happy about that.
Speaker 4: And we're onto the regular season, so you know, here
we are. Like Gihanny made some great points about Week one,
these lines have been up for a while in the
college so even the NFL, the line have been up
for a while.
Speaker 1: So you know, I may even make my Week.
Speaker 4: Two and up bets a little bit higher, a little
bit stronger than I would on Week ones. But yet
I'm gonna have some some NFL stuff week one.
Speaker 1: That's I'm sure I haven't. I haven't bet yet. So
as long as I haven't bet bet these games yet,
the value is still going to be there. So I
look forward to that perfect example. Like I bet like
two totals two months ago.
Speaker 4: I bet a side, like I bet the Colts plus
like one and a half. I bet Minnesota plus two.
They're like minus two, So you can't bet them now,
but and the move's already gone. So it's not like
a line comes up on a Sunday night and then
the next week you get the pounds on the line
on Sunday night. I'll say more of Monday Mondays a day.
I'll be really some plays Monday and Tuesday when you're
betting into a softer market and it's not as efficient.
That's gonna be my my take this year on NFL
and also college, so college will have up early and
look forward to it.
Speaker 2: MLB Gihanni mentioned, Hey, a lot of the public is
going to start, you know, not paying attention to baseball.
Do you see that out in out in Vegas as well,
where the line movement is just going to be different.
Speaker 1: It's funny.
Speaker 4: I had, I had, I had had a pretty big
week in baseball too, So uh yeah, this was a
good It was a good week for me all around
and baseball. Maybe that is the case, uh that that
you know, I love playoff baseball. I grew up with
baseball and boxing. That was my two sports as a
kid back East. I enjoyed going to the events, going
to the games, and I'm always going to be a
baseball guy, So playoff baseball nothing like it.
Speaker 1: You really enjoy it. But football is everything. NFL is
where it's where it's at. That's rolling networks focus on
and concentrate on.
Speaker 4: Maybe there will be a little bit of extra value
there that that baseball is not really looked at in
that way, starting maybe in this, you know, coming up
to this weekend here, of know, we have Thursday, Friday,
Saturday of college football action. So very good point, very
good point. I love I love watching Giohnny. By the way,
it's a cartoon character. I love him, you know, he
really he's great. He's a great watch. And I just
listened to him because, you know, a lot of the
things I've been doing for the last twenty five plus
i'll say thirty now thirty years, I follow the same
things he does. You know, I have some of the
sharpest groups in the world that that I have worked with, and.
Speaker 1: Giohnny understands that.
Speaker 4: It's not a lot of people in his industry that
that that that's in our space that understands that.
Speaker 2: So really cool, let's do an MLB proper that. I
got a couple of questions I want to ask you
more broad You always give us an MLB prop Which
one do you like today?
Speaker 4: Okay, let's go to Cincinnati Reds Hunter Green over I
almust want to make sure it's still the right number.
Speaker 1: We want to make sure that. Okay, over six and
a half it was mine.
Speaker 4: Okay, Hunter Green over six and a half minus won
fifteen strikeouts. Green goes up against the struggling Dodgers team.
Imagine someone's saying they're struggling Dodgers team. But you know,
this team was projected to win one hundred and four
and a half games, so which is insane that someone
had that much regular season wins. But so yes, even
though they're doing well on they're gonna be in the
playoffs and possibly you know, the World Series. I still
say they're struggling. So let's go back to this Hunter
Green over six and a half strikeouts minus a dollar fifteen. Again,
the Dodgers kind of struggling. They had the seventh highest
strikeout rate in the last month since returning from an injury,
has thrown eighty five ninety eight pitches two starts.
Speaker 1: So I think, you know, there should have been a
restriction for this game, and they'll get the strikeouts there.
So there's a free player for everybody love it.
Speaker 2: I need to get your thoughts on this. I mentioned
this to Teddy, but I I really want to get
all your guys's thoughts of people I really respect in
this industry. They just casually released that Malik Beasley is
completely cleared of any wrongdoing. He's not even the target
of this gambling investigation, you know for the Detroit Pistons.
He loses a forty million dollar contract and amazing. It
was like a really really big deal when they announced it.
But now that he now that he's been cleared, there's
like nothing. Yeah, It's like this is just really really
I don't even know where I'm going with it, but
I jumped very conclusion, very good.
Speaker 4: It's like it's like watching The Godfather when when literally
in court, so now you have you know, alcopones alcoholone,
sorry about that, and you have you literally have the
character of Michael Corleone in the courtroom, and you know,
they it was big news when they were they were
going after him. And then when all of a sudden,
all of a sudden, now you have Frankie five Angels
forgets totally forgets about the scene and says, oh.
Speaker 1: I uh yeah, I don't know. I was fooling around.
Speaker 4: And now you have Tom Hagen standing. I'm saying, wait,
this court owes an apology. This court owes an apology.
And and that's exactly the case here. So no one
talks about anything after it's over. They want to make
a big deal of it ahead of time, because hey,
that makes for good press about sports betting, and of
course it makes for a great great thing about Oh
my god, there's a scandal involving NBA players and you're
a spot on about their excellent point, and now they
kind of sweeping under the rug and they look for
the next dirt on an an NBA or a Major
League Baseball guy and put it out there. You know,
it's it's social media, it's it's it's these network So
it's the way they present things. It's it's terrible. You're
a very good point, very good point. Swept it under
the rug. Now the guy was cleared.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I read one article that's it. It was like,
why isn't people where are people jumping up and down
about up was like, we wrecked the guy's contract wrecked.
I mean, hopefully another team will side. I don't know,
I don't I don't know where. I don't know where
it was going, but somebody had asked about like how
did they like, how did they first catch it? And
it's the sports books that alert. Do you want to
you want to tell that how they how they kind
of get.
Speaker 4: Jimmy Vicaro has talked about that. Jimmy just retired. He
talked about that on many networks. When the Boston College scandal,
Arizona scans, these things, are the bets come into these
towns at the time, back then it was only Vegas
taking bets legally. So it's the bets that are taking
the unusual amounts on certain ways, certain teams, certain teams
from certain players, And of course they're the ones that
are going to report to the leagues and to the
officials and uh, you know, to to the people in
charge that hey, something's unusual going on here. We're getting
betting activity only one way from many different groups.
Speaker 1: And they're the.
Speaker 4: Ones that actually tell these leagues that. That's how they
find out, uh, and then it hits the press.
Speaker 1: Though, very good point. Andy, you're on you're on today, buddy.
Speaker 2: I try and be, I try and be, but yeah,
it's it's it's not like they're just looking at the
game and being like, wait a minute, that that seemed
a little weird. Like they get the information from the
books and then they go back and look at the
look at the investigation and such. So last thing before
we let you go. Uh, any any thoughts on college
or NFL teams that you're looking forward to to trying
to fade or support first couple of weeks of the
season right out of the gate.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, everyone thinks these some of these teams
are going to be so bad. I look at my
regular season unders. I look at my my my bets,
all my season wins.
Speaker 1: Uh, you know under and overs.
Speaker 4: I have a lot of unders, and I'm looking at
all these unders, I'm saying, well, someone's gotta win. I mean,
I got like seven teams under. I have one team over,
and you know, I like betting those season those season
wins are under. I like looking against teams. It's going
to be the same teams I've talked about before. People
love the Bears this year. A lot of people, a
lot of a lot of fans support here in Vegas,
always on Chicago teams, and yeah, no I'm against the
Bears making the playoffs. I'm against the Bengals making the playoffs,
so I think no, no, no playoffs for those teams.
Even though I love Joe Joe Burrow, it's all about
the money and making money. So I am probably not
that I'm anti Cincinnati. I'm more anti uh more anti Chicago,
and I like Minnesota this year. I like Minnesota to
make the playoffs. So there's two. But before I go,
I really want to talk about my interview that just
came up in the last hour on Wager Talk with
Showe a Otani's assistance book maker. So John Orlando and
I went out to his house in Orange County, beautiful state.
Speaker 1: Unbelievable.
Speaker 4: Uh, he made it really made us really feel comfortable
there for him. We did the interview in his backyard
and I found some things very feeling. People are really
going to appreciate his honesty and his candor. The guy's
going to jail.
Speaker 1: What can you say.
Speaker 4: He's going to get at least fifteen months at sentencing
this Friday, and he's going to jail.
Speaker 1: If this wasn't Otani, the big name involved, I don't know.
Speaker 4: If he'd go to jail because he paid a lot
of money back, gave him one point six million already.
They took three million in cash and stuff from his
house and he's very open about it. But you know,
he wanted people to rat him out, so I'm giving
away somebody interview here. He wanted, I'm sorry, they wanted.
The government wanted him to rite out people and he
would have had zero jail time. So they wanted him
to rat out other bookmakers, agents and things, and he
didn't do any of that.
Speaker 1: So that's why he's going away.
Speaker 4: Otani's assistant ibe, he got fifty seven months, I believe.
For you know, I think that's that's the sentence he got.
He's away already. So this was a really cool interview
about how a bookmaker became living in a nice area
on the California coast. People don't think California has bookmakers.
Ah up and down that coach from top to bottom
from San Diego all the way up to the top
past San France. The bookmakers everywhere. So this because there's
no legal sports betting in California. So that's why the
need for bookmakers also are out there. So there is
a great interview up just came up. I'm gonna put
it on Twitter. I didn't put it on Twitter yet.
Speaker 1: It's about an hour.
Speaker 4: And twenty minutes, and he was great on there. He
was great, talked about, like I said, his upbringing, what
he did his whole life, how he became a street bookmaker.
And I've known him for almost twenty years. I've been
next to him when he was betting two hundred three
hundred thousand dollars a hand a baker. I couldn't believe
that they took bets like that. I didn't realize the bet.
He made a bet on the on the Super Bowl.
He was a big gambler. He get by the way.
He gambled all his money away. In the end, the
casinos got all the money. That Otani paid him, or
Toni's assistant paid.
Speaker 1: Him, the casinos got all the money. It's just like
the East.
Speaker 4: Rutstein character says. In the end, they get it. They're
the ones that profited. What do you see his big
super Bowl? He bet seven figures on the Super Bowl.
He's one of the biggest cameras I've ever seen.
Speaker 1: In my life.
Speaker 2: Wow, that's like the scene and Goodfellas when they get done.
It's like you didn't talk the big crowd of people
and Henry didn't talk right in the movie, right, Bill,
what do you have up? It's eleven dollars Monday. We
celebrating eleven years eleven year aunniversary for wage you're talking.
Speaker 4: I just went to the site because I didn't know.
I find out from you guys.
Speaker 1: It's eleven dollars Monday. So yeah, you can even get
me on there for eleven bucks. So yeah, So last.
Speaker 4: Week it says that the sixteen units win, which is
people hate their they hate the report.
Speaker 1: A lot of people hate. They only want to talk
about your losers. So anyway, big week. Last week, Football's
here you guys.
Speaker 4: Like I said, I've I've been selling for many years,
and this is the greatest deal ever.
Speaker 1: I see. Look at Teddy with the little hat. How cute.
I know this is how cute he is. So anyway, yeah, so.
Speaker 4: This should be U This should be a big season
for us all though. And we got some good baseball
up on deck right now. And of course football, you
guys have the almost unbelievable deal for the grab right now.
You should grab a month so start. I'll even say,
wait until like Friday and grab a whole month.
Speaker 1: That's the best thing. To do.
Speaker 4: You'll be part of the NFL College football this this
is really gonna be I'm really pumped up for this season.
Thank you guys for watching and listening, and thank you
Andy for having me on.
Speaker 2: Thanks Bill, Bill crack Man continued success. Bill's number one.
Last three days, I'm number two. Darn it. If Bill
wasn't here, I'd be number one. Let's do all around
the world here, Chris Dana is on his honeymoon. The
great Chris Allen, Chris Chris big Dog. He goes by
big Dog. So when I refer to big Dog, I'm
talking about Chris. All right, let's do these all have
a theme here? The free play today, it's pretty obvious.
Let's see if you can figure it out. All right,
let's do a season total. Jamier Gibbs over eleven rushing
touchdowns this season. The Lions have rushed for fifty six
touchdowns the last two years. When they get in close,
they run it. Gibbs had ten his rookie year sixteen.
Last year. David Montgomery has missed time. If Montgomery misses
more time, Gibbs is just gonna shoulder the load and
get all those touchdowns. So let's go eleven plus rushing
touchdowns aces at the Sky WNBA. Asia Wilson eleven plus
rebounds She's had twelve or more and seven out of
last eight games, last three games against the Sky forty
six rebounds. She's averaging over fifteen boards per game. So
let's do Asia Wilson over eleven and a half rebounds.
Women's US Open Jacqueline Christian eleven plus games won. She
faces Daniel Collins. They played once last year. She won
exactly eleven games. Four of Collins's last five opponents have
won eleven or more, and the last three losses for
Collins were to opponents ranked higher than Collins. Let's do
Diamondbacks and Brewers take the all line over eleven runs
plus two to seventy eight. Rodriguez Diamondbacks last eight starts
giving up thirty runs. Woodruff has been good, but he
gave up three runs and four and one third innings.
Last Star only pitch four innings the last two starts.
Diamondbacks bullpen fifth highest ERA and we're going to the
Premier League Newcastle at Liverpool. Sala will have a point.
This is minus one forty seventeen games against Newcastle, he
has eighteen points and he scored a goal last week.
All those props all involved the number eleven. Sala is
number eleven. So that's that's your that's your eleven year
anniversary all around the world tribute. Let's bring on Steve Merrill. Steve,
you have to bring a free play involving the number eleven. Now,
I just I just did.
Speaker 5: I was hustling here scrambling today two eleven dollars best
bets on the MLB board up there. But I meant
to bring my eleven dollar bill, and I was like,
if I bring a ten and a one or two
five in a one, I was gonna say.
Speaker 6: It's eleven dollar money. And then I'll do one fifth
of a five. That's eleven. Here you go five eleven.
Speaker 2: All right, so you've got eleven dollars plays up wager talk.
Speaker 5: Correct, I've got two of them, so if you get both,
it's a double deuce. Mickey's big Mouth, for those of
our gods in the nineties used to like to drink
the hand grenades Mickey's. Actually the hand grenades weren't twenty
two ounce Mickey's big Mouth malt liquor. Google it if
they're still in existence. But Yeah, it's a great special
happy eleven years almost a teenager. It's fitting the press
was one of the people that started eleven years ago
speaking the teenagers, and then Marco was the other one. Yeah,
Teddy's photo is great there. But there's some things I
could say about Brian Leonard but probably get me in
trouble with that photo. It's a little special looking with
the thumbs.
Speaker 2: Like how they just put a party favor in Ronald's mouth.
Speaker 5: Which one was fabricated? It all looks so real. I know,
I know, I hope Brian's was.
Speaker 6: Brian looks a little fabricated there too.
Speaker 5: It's kind of like, I don't know, he looks special
to believe it at that.
Speaker 2: That's great. So Steve, we're gonna talk Padres Mariders. We're
also going to talk Nebraska and Cincinnati, and let's start there.
Nebraska in Cincinnati. Matt Rule. I believe third season for Nebraska,
but he's got some new coordinators. Bearcats return their coaches,
but boy, they were not good down the stretch last year.
Looks like Nebraska's pretty big favorites. I haven't reached that
seven number, but holding steady at six and a half
over under fifty three and a half. What's your breakdown
on Nebraska and Cincinnati here.
Speaker 5: Yeah, we had Week zero, you know, five one A
games and one Double A games as well, but Week
one really starts this Thursday night. We have a huge
card on the betting board for Thursday night and this
is probably the spotlight game at nine o'clock Eastern. It's
a neutral field, by the way, Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
Nebraska and Cincinnati. I really don't think there's a home
field obviously for either team here. It's a true neutral.
Nebraska opened six and a half, and as you said, Andy,
it's holding six and a half. But if you look
at some of the leading indicator books, that'll line minus
one seventeen Bookmaker minus won sixteen pinnacles sitting at six
and a half flat. So but it does look like
it's more likely to hit seven than six. If you
like Nebraska, I think you jump in. You lay the
six and a half. Now, if you do like Cincinnati,
you wait the risk reward of getting seven versus six,
which I don't think is gonna happen anyway, it's definitely
worth waiting. So once you gonna play in Nebraska now
play Cincinnati in near kickoff. If I had to play now,
I would lean Nebraska minus is six and a half.
They're the more the better team overall, and I'm always
gonna side towards the better teams in Week one, especially
with the transfer portal, the uncertainty new defensive coordinator for Nebraska.
That's kind of the uncertainty in this game. Both teams
that do return quarterbacks. Neither team was very explosive on offense.
They were both on decent on defense last year. But
if you look at Nebraska, they got ten starters back
on this offensive side. I think they're gonna be pretty
tough there. And we have seen sharp money come in
on the over in this game. Opened at fifty and
a half this summer, it's now up to fifty three
and a half. And I talk about those sharp books.
Bet Online is fifty four and a half, Pinnacle fifty
three and a half, juice to the over. I'd say
the sharp money is leaning Nebraska in the over. I
would agree with both, but it looks like the sharpest
is on the Cincinnati Nebraska total over. If you just
did some row maths from last year, the total would
be in the mid forty ragns, so this is a
bump hire. But once again, both teams return some offensive
firepower veteran quarterbacks, and you got a new defensive coordinator
for Nebraska, which maybe that's a plus, but I think
early in the season, without a preseason, without any other games,
they might be a little step behind there. We don't
talk a lot about team totals in college football. I
know you do extremely well with them. But if I
like Nebraska and I've liked the over, hey, why not
play the team total over and right now I'm seeing
that around twenty nine and a half, So once again
that key number of thirty thirty one would be working
in your favors. Nebraska team total over twenty nine and
a half actually might be the best way to attack
this on Thursday night.
Speaker 2: Don't you think for one second I haven't had my
eye on that Nebraska team total over. Yes, absolutely that
I got that one circle. I'll do a little bit
more research on it. But yeah, team totals have been great.
Just I just love team But we hit seventy three
percent of our team totals in college football lifetime.
Speaker 5: And Andy, let me ask you real quick, I mean
I need did great with them last year. What is
your short like you know your you know, back of
a napkin handicap. When you're looking at team totals, I mean,
like for me, if I'm looking at a side and
a total in the game, obviously whether it's baseball, ay sport,
that gives you some value, probably with the team total.
Speaker 2: I like teams that are very aggressive, even in blowouts.
So I hammered Indiana last year with that coach and
that quarterback and army early in the season. They continue
in the fourth quarter, there is no let up on them.
So I'm immediately looking for aggressive teams, teams that want
to make a statement. And then I'm looking at overs
and a lot of a lot of times when you're
looking at team totals, look at the opponent first. Fade
these teams with terrible defenses, like I'll tell you right now,
the Cincinnati Bengals opponent their team total. The opponent of
the Bengals team total is just going to be an
overplay Like you play it all season. It's probably going
to hit sixty seventy percent of the time. At defense
can't stop anyone. So a lot of times I'm looking
at a defense I want to fade and then I'll
look and see if the offense can can take advantage
of it.
Speaker 5: So, but you're looking mostly at team total overs and
it sounds like, right.
Speaker 2: I've tried to do unders, and those garbage time unders
are just nauseating. Just like a game's all blowout and
the backup comes in and throws a touchdown, You're like,
how did I lose this one?
Speaker 1: So?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I also find Steve, and I know you
do this too, like narrow what you're looking for, Like
like I'm only gonna do overs and team totals. That way,
I don't have to worry about the unders. It's less
to research, and you can get a lot more detailed
in that researching.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's funny, Andy, because you know when we're growing up,
you know, it's always like the public plays favorites and
over sharps play underdogs and unders. Right, my I went
ten and three last year to start college football, and
I'll do it again this year. What I'm looking for
is blowouts. I think almost every one of my plays
was a four or five touchdown favorite the first four
weeks in September last year. So I have that same
mindset and what I love about overs as well in
all sports, especially the NFL. Nowadays, it's the only bet
in all of sports as long as the electricity stays
on in the game goes fifty five minutes that you
can win it by like the third quarter. And you
get NFL games where you're almost within three points of
the over by halftime, like some Lions games, you know, Bengals,
like you mentioned, whereas you're always sweating those unders. And
you know, back in the nineties when I started, it
was square if you're playing over as Sharp played unders.
But I don't think that's the case anymore. I'm with
you on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, everything's changed. The transfer portal has changed everything along
with nil. So yeah, it's a new age here. Let's
go to MLB. Don't forget about MLB, guys, there's still
money to be made here. Let's talk about the Padres
and the Mariners. You got Sears for Padres, Miller for Mariners. Man,
if we're just looking short term these Miller's been awful
for the Mariners and Sears has actually gotten a little
bit better, but both of them high e ras. What's
your breakdown here for Padres Mariners?
Speaker 5: Yeah, if you actually look a Seattle struggle a bit
over the years against Sears. So if I had to
back one of these guys who have mediocre eras, I'd
rather have series, and we're getting them in an underdog
price plus one O five with the Padres here. And
it's also a team that's been in pretty good current
form over the last couple months. In fact, just the
last thirty games, the Padres are nineteen and eleven, one
of the better records in baseball. We do still have
the better pitcher on the mound. All things equal here,
series a four point ninety RA, but Miller terrible as
you mentioned, five point ninety RA this season, and what
I'd like to look at now later in the season
as guys that might be wearing down now, Miller's only
pitched fifty three innings, but he hasn't been very good.
In fact, he had the injury back in late May
or early June. Actually his last start was June sixth.
He came back for his first start last week on
the nineteenth, gave out four runs in five innings, four strikeouts,
two walks, gave up two home runs. Need to see
something from him, Maybe he turns it around in the
second or third start, but definitely not gonna lay juice
hoping that happens. And I think we get the better team,
better pitcher overall. Here is a slight dog tonight, So
I do like the Padres plus one oh five in
this matchup. And one thing I'll mentioned about baseball is
football starts this week, the full college football season starts,
but we still have a third of the baseball season.
We have over two months of baseball remaining. It's not
anywhere close to being over. So this is a great
time to get on board. And last year I finished
on a fifty seven and twenty eight run on baseball
best bets of the final few months. So don't sleep
on baseball just because football is beginning. And right now
you get the rest of August for free still when
you sign up for September, that's this next week of
August for free. When you buy September all sports, no
promo co need at Steve merrillwager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I listen my eleven dollars plays in baseball today.
It's just a it's a fantastic way to build the
bank roll, even though you're not paying attention to baseball.
Maybe you're focusing a little bit more on football. I mean,
the money still spends the same, and like Giohanny and Crack,
we're talking a lot of the public's out on baseball,
so you almost end up with better lines and a
little bit more predicting on the line movement here. So
I just I will throw out Steve Padres. Team totals
only three and a half. That seems like a mistake,
So that seems mighty enticing.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Andy, it's funny you say that because I did
a video last week for the Dodger Rocky game. I
forget which one it was. You do the Monday or Tuesday.
It was the first one, I think, and the total
was like eleven and a half or so, and the
team totals were seven and a half and three and
a half because the Dodgers were a three hundred favorite's
and it was Monday, because they lost out right. It
was the game they lost out right as a three
dollars favorite. Last week, they were minus one and a
half minus one ninety, minus two and a half minus
one thirty could get the Rockies at plus two and
a half plus money. Rockies had won five of their
previous six games. They're playing the best baseball they've played
all season, which isn't saying much, and they're in the
thin air and altitude and their team total was three
and a half.
Speaker 6: Now I only got the four, but it won.
Speaker 5: But I'm thinking to you when I saw that, because
once again, I think people overthink things. Right, like a
three and a half, we're not playing the under. It's
over or pass. Maybe there is no value with the over,
but you could only play the over. And I just
mentioned the Miller has an er almost six this season. Yeah,
I mean that's the only possible way. With that said,
it probably a one nothing game now, But yeah, that's
how you have to look at these things. Don't don't
think that Sometimes it seems too obvious because a lot
of times it's just common sense three and a halfs
you're looking to play over or pass.
Speaker 2: I'm laughing because I did have a team total in
a game and the final score was one zero last week.
That happened and Yankees, it does. It's baseball. You're you're like,
you're you're trying to hit fifty five fifty seven percent
of your betch you'll be best in the world. So
real quick before we let you go. Did you happen
to see the end of the NASCAR race? And what
I did not?
Speaker 5: I know Saturday in Daytona, and I usually turn on
to watch the last two laps and then the.
Speaker 6: Overtime because that's all you need to see, but I
did not see it this weekend.
Speaker 2: So Alex Bowman was the only Hendrick's car that wasn't
going to be in the playoffs because he doesn't have
a win, but he was ahead in points, but he
got in a wreck earlier. So at the end they
needed somebody to win the race who had already won.
So Kyle Larson and Chase Eliot up front and they're
bub up and dudes out of the way that haven't
won a race, and they pushed Ryan Blaney to the
win because he had a win, and they snuck their
teammate into the playoffs.
Speaker 6: Got in Boma.
Speaker 1: Good.
Speaker 2: People were livid. It was hilarious.
Speaker 5: It was well it will Nascar, I mean, will NASCAR
do something about that?
Speaker 2: You think, of course not. It's a race at Daytona
and they got a big name in like you.
Speaker 5: Plus exactly what it goes back to, like the conversation
you and crack were just having is that they got
Bowman in versus some no name winning the race exactly.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you want it's pretty pretty easy. So absolutely absolutely
one more time televim what you have up, Steve, great job.
Speaker 5: Yeah, So, speaking of the NASCAR, Andy and I started
over five years ago. You know, eleven seemed like a
long time Indy, and then I realized you and I've
been doing this for over five years. We've been there
half of the time at wager talk. But seriously, it's
the eleventh anniversary of wager talk dot com and to
celebrate all best bets or eleven dollars. So I've got
my two Baseball best bets and onrly it'd be fifty
dollars to get both of them. You get them each
for just eleven dollars tonight on Monday, or if you'd
like to get them for free. The only thing better
than eleven dollars Monday is free Monday the rest of
August free when you buy September All Sports All Access.
That's football and Baseball every day, no promo codes. Need
to check it out. Oh and by the way, bonus
free play every day. Bonus free play on my page
Tonight's is in the Twins Blue Jays game. Free playing
the Twins Blue Jays as well on my page Steve
merrillwager Talk dot Com. Get there quicker with shortcut WT
dot buzz slash sm.
Speaker 2: Steve Merrill, Everyone closing out a great show on Monday.
Good luck Steves, any brother, all right, let's go to
do it for Monday show. My eleven dollars play is
an MLB team total. Last play we had was on
Saturday in the team total. It gets over and we're
looking to do it again. Laid off of team totals
just today. I don't play them on Sundays. I've already
played this one with my own money. So eleven dollars
over there, WT dot buzz slash al is the shortcut.
Don't forget to join us tomorrow, same time, same place.
We're gonna go over some more college football MLB. I'll
do Dana White Contender Series on tomorrow's show, but the
full video for Contender Series we'll be up later today
once we get through with wag Ins. I know you
guys are excited for that. All right, thanks so much
for joining us. Hit the like button to make sure
you subscribe. To the channel.
Speaker 1: Amazing.
Speaker 2: When Steve and I got here, I think we were
celebrating like thirty thousand subscribers an hour at two hundred
and twelve thousand. So we are pumping out a ton
of videos individual game breakdowns for college football, for NFL,
still for MLB. So he hit the bell. You get
notified when these videos come up. That way, you get
the best of the number as soon as these videos
come out. Thanks everyone for joining us. Great show. Shout
out to Jeohnny Crack and Steve. Thank you so much
guys in the chat, great job as always. We're gonna
do it again tomorrow. Good luck on your bet tonight
and take care