Speaker 1: So this is to do it. Now, this is from
a site that it's called box Office Theory and its sites.
There's something that people use for early early tracking, right,
So this is to say that, hey, this this type
of tracking, because now we're gonna get real tracking soon
where it's ticket sales and purchases and you know, demand x,
y and z. But before the early tracking is all
based on like social media impressions and trailer review or
trailer reviews and all this like advertisements and purchase of
said merch And what they do is they take it
and they go, Okay, let's say, uh, the Batman did
these numbers, Superman Stein doing these numbers kind of comparable.
Like let's say, if you're I don't know, let's just
say trailer got one million, one billion views, right, didn't
but let's just say Suaerman tril got one billion views. Oh,
the Batman got one point five billion views, so it
might be a little less than that. Right. So now
we're gonna start getting more and more as we get closer.
But it's early tracking, right, and the numbers of the
earth aren't too surprising, even though I think they could change.
So right now we could break it down because I
haven't looked at these, so I'm excited to talk about
them on air. Uh, the early this is for the
opening weekend domestic. Okay, so the lowest of the guys,
I don't want to say guys. I guess Drastic War
was led by Scritch show lowess of the July crew.
Fantastic four at one twenty five to one thirty five.
Now I know, I saw some stat I'm like, oh,
it's one of their biggest summer openings. Yeah, sure, I'm
sure it is, because I more about the May crew.
But we'll get there. I'm gonna look at some of
the stuff and if git a second here, Superman was
a second with one fifty and one seventy, and then
Drastic World was first place with one sixty five to
one eighty five. Now one obviously Fantastic Four nowhere near.
If these let's say the nummers are true, that's what
we're gonna do. It's like a Sea Tier thing. It's
for fun. We're talking about to see because these are
not the official tracking that'll come out. And just like Ballerina,
this right official tracking was like thirty five to forty
five May twenty five. Not good we'll see what happens
with that movie. You can check out our review top
because is a ninety million budget with all those reshoots
and everything. But do you just push ahead and keep going?
I don't know. And these budgets we don't know because
Superman's been thrown around a bunch. And I think Drassic
World's clocking at one eighty because they went cheap on
that one. It's like boom, They're they got not making
the most profit Drastic World, right, And I guess we
could start there because let's see Drassic let's go. I
usually use the numbers thanks to Brent. Shout out of Brent,
hope you're doing well there. I gotta message and see
how you're doing. I feel like well, I was gonna say,
I feel like we used to all time, but no,
it's just because I used to hear you. We still did.
We still do talk on a good occasions. But I
think just because I would hear Marvel allance felt like
Brent was talking to me. But the only thing that
box office module is a bit better is at the
kind of breakdowns like opening weekends and whatnot. Sometimes the
numbers loses that. So and now I got police sirens
out there. Hopefully these strikes and stuff are okay, because
they're honestly over there, and I don't know if you
hear the wind, we might just get to this topic.
It was. It's picking up big time, but it's it's
feeling nice. Okay, Jurassic World. I'm gonna pull them all up.
We're gonna start with the dinosaurs, right, let's see, not
gonna go with the classics, the old school one is
just gonna go with, uh, the the new trilogy, right,
I suppose says the baby Joe Joey maniacs are running
wild to the box office. I thought you're gonna make
some iguana joke as spouse my god. Okay, so opening
weekend for let's see, whereas sometimes these movies once they
start to get older, they don't really Okay, here we
go domestic opening of two oh eight for the first
Drastic World, and the next one was one forty five
or sorry, no, no sorry, The next one was one
forty eight, and then the next one was one forty five,
so kind of still in the ball. All the made
a billion dollars, give or take. I should have not
closed that. Let me pull that back up, my bad.
But that's pretty good considering if that tracking was to
be correct. So you got no not rebirth, don't fuck
me over, they're trying to fuck me over. Oh I
can smell the rain, man, if they could bottle the
rain to be a smell that I could have as
a car fresher, like genuine rain, I'd pay top top dollar.
Drastic World one point six billion, man. Uh, Drassic Domini,
which was the third one, was just a billion, and
then uh, let's see Drastic World Fall and King the
second one at one point three billion. The reason I
wanted to bring them up because you look at that
the second and third. The second was only three million
higher than the third one, so you would think, oh,
their box office run is gonna be pretty similar, right
obviously because they had a billion, But still there's still
a three hundred million missing there. Granted, again, these movies
came out after like still not like comperative like COVID
was an as bad, but still round, so a lots
of people stay at home. And granted they brought back
the Legends as well, but still three hundred million dollars
pretty good if it's tracking right now to what was
that one sixty five to one A five. If those
were true numbers, that'd be the best opening since the
first Drafted World, which makes sense. You're never gonna get that, right,
That's like Forced Awakens. It was coming back big stars
that Chris Pratt were emerging and everything, so that would
be a win. Now here's the thing that I feel
like is a lot different than and this is for
all these movies, right, A lot different than what Jurassic
World came out Avengers. To me, those movies, it felt
like and I think he's I don't know what it's called,
but someone, if you're on Twitter, you're really curious what
I'm talking about. Hit up Stephen Colbert. He's been on.
He's up here on Giver's like briefly during a true
bat but his wife has been on a couple of times.
That they're good friends the show. I've talked to him
on the Vogas stream. They're good people over there, and
he's a great writer. He he I don't know if
we have I guess to be probably that in calm.
I think we have different things. But he likes looking
at numbers and making charts, and he had this great
article one time where he's like looking at the differences
of years based and like a opening weekend and the
drop offs, right, and he was one of the first
people to really point me out to the whole the
big Marvel fans come out for the opening weekend. I
feel like to give him credit. He was on that
way before it was really starting to get bad of
like the big sixty whatever drops. Right. So that's the
thing though, where even twenty fifteen, you'd make this big
bulk of money and you weren't expected. That's why when
the bvs sixty percent drop or whatever happened or seventy
whatever was some big number. That's why it was so
big because like, man, what a huge drop off for
a huge franchise. It is divisive, right, which I there's
parts that I do agree with that for sure. And
there was big drop offs before, but it was because
either it was something like an Endgame where it was
massive opening weekends, so the drop off, well, it's gonna
be huge, or it would be bigger drop offs but
still making big amounts of change. We've seen many movies
have a massive opening, you can like an in Quantmania,
and then the next weekend the legs just fall out
from under it right, So same thing where it's like
we could be in a situation let's say that tracking
is true for Drastic World, it could make one eighty
five be only fifteen million less than Drastic World. Like
that's a one point six billion dollar movie. This is
gonna be massive. But it's not the same way. The
law of the opening weekend is those core people like
myself and like a lot of you guys that just
go for the opening week because you still love movies, right,
and you want to see that event. There's lots of
people that now will wait or you know, I'm good,
don't care about theater, especially with things coming to streaming
so fast. If they know you can wait a little bit, eh,
that's fine. Sure, Like even sinners like the fact that
it's like we haven't washed it at home because and
we want to see it, but the fact that it's on
view deal ready, it's like still like wow, that that's crazy.
That was a phenomenon, right, So that's hard to say.
And with Jurassic World, I really don't know. That's what
I've said before, so I'm sorry for repeating, but that's
what I love about all these franchises coming on in
July is one, it's just gonna be interesting how the
box office reacts. But two they all have they're all
in a pivot point. Right. Fantastic four is trying to
rebuild and regain trust of Marvel fans. Superman's trying to
start anew and regain trust a little bit for some
people that didn't like the old universe for whatever reason, right,
And then Durassic World is one trying to see if
we can do without these biggest sup of stars. And
two is it the new Transformers? Where is box all
like it's full proof where no matter what if these
movies that to me, uh, dress World two and three
not great movies, and many people have talked to not
great movies, but it doesn't not matter because people want
to see dinosaurs and you don't get them as much
as a superhero movie right where you're gonna least at
least two of those a year minimum nowadays? Right? Or
is it a case where it is like the whatever
it was, its age extinction to the Last Night, We're
eventually Transformers the bad faith cut up to them feeling
I'm not gonna go see those anymore? Right, even with
like piet Scabian, same thing, it caught up to them.
So I suppose says at Scargo is a big established star. Yes, okay, sorry,
you're completely right. I'll take back what I said. I
mean an established character in the sense of, hey, we
can get Chris Pratt and Bryce Dylece Howard Ian Brycedaluce
Howard versus Scargo nowhere near the same tier level. But
she's playing a character that's been in three three billion
dollar movie No, three billion dollar movies. That's a bad
way to phrase it. So that's what I mean, not that, Yes,
Scargo is a big star at lea like I won't
say it's a big star for people known. But that's
more what I mean as far as absolutely, and Scargo
is way more bigger than I think Chris Brad brycetiuse
Howard was when they did the first one. Uh fu
get meaning maniacs own grady maniacs not showing rebirths. And
they might not write there's little people like Chris Bratt, right,
or they just feel like, oh I was connected with
those characters. Now it's new characters. I'm good for a bit, right,
So that's what I mean. But yeah, Scar definitely a
big star and the same thing. We'll see her power.
So curious to see how that one goes. And I
know too, a lot of people point out where they
used to make a lot of money in the international markets,
where leveless international markets now don't pay out as big
now because they got their own movies. They figure out
during COVID, like, hey, we got to do our own shit.
And that's why the biggest movie year right now is
a movie from China, because it's like, oh, yeah, we
did this and people loved him great, So that doesn't
surprise me. It's opening in a bigger weekend. We're gonna
get to fantastic for in a second. But I do
have my money on Swerman for the bigger weekend as
well too. It's interesting because people say that about the
internal national markets of Jurassic But to me, if you
like and I should make an official prediction, my gut
would say that, hey, you should go drastic because even
if they're paying out less big established franchise. But I
think it's gonna fall enough. And that's where I think
I'm gonna pussy foot around because I don't know if
we'll do this topic again in the future when we
get closer we'll do predictions, but I'm gonna say Superman
is gonna win the summer. Now, that's what it all's
with context, right, because it's all about trailers and showings
where I think fantastic. For for me, the last year
there was better, and I think they've had some good showings,
but I don't think they're capturing the huge mainstream audience.
And I think obviously there's tons of people that are
iffy on the Marvel brand. I think Superman is doing
a great job of I said that feels like the
event movie of the summer. But I still could see
a world where Superman has the bigger opening weekend, but
Durssic makes more overall. So I'm saying that, but I
still say these three, who's gonna win. I think it's
gonna be Superman. Now. I think it's gonna beat that
opening week and I think it's tough for me, right
because let's see, I always go back to this, the
Batman opening weekend. We talked about this the last week
League Geek, which someone made a good point right where
let's see here made but not too lower than I thought.
Is one twenty eight, one twenty nine. Uh. But the
thing is this, So I think it can definitely be
that that was still a little bit of COVID and
that's a bit darker movie as a family movie. I'm
trying to I had them last week. I think it
was May. It was a budgets. I can't remember what
it was, but I think it was. You would put
it in like the top ten or fifteen opening weekends
of supermovie since COVID, which is not like a bad
thing because like, you know, yeah, I should have pulled
that up. It's I had. I did the homework weeks
ago and then got rid of it. But either way,
all those numbers are good. But same thing. It's about
the weekends after the fact, right, There's many movies have
great open the weekend and then they peter out and
will peter out. I don't know. I still think this
is gonna be, for the most part, more talked about
than Fantastic Four, and I do think it's gonna be
a better move than Fantastic four. I definitely think it
will be a better movie than Drastic World and talked
about who knows because maybe again people just went I
love talking about dinosaurs, but I think that's really good
tracking if I can try and find let's see biggest
opening weekends post COVID. Let's see if I can come
on Google. Don't share me now, Okay, read it, thank
you very much. This is from nine months ago. Okay,
so this is the top. I think something. These could
be wrong, but anyways, these are the top twelve. Taco
Maverick one twenty six, The Batman says one thirty four.
So I thought that was wrong about Avatar one thirty four,
Love and Thunder one forty four, Drafts World Dominion one
forty five, Super Mario Bros. One forty six, Inside Out
one fifty four, Barbie at one sixty two, Black Panther
at one eighty one, and then Strange at one eighty seven,
Deple Wolvering at two eleven, and then Inspire Man Knowing
Home at two sixty. And that is always the funny thing,
right where we talk about and we'll get to them
doom and gloom of oh Marvel and Disney, like I've
heard that before. It's like, oh man, if this isn't
hit for them, they're in mag troll. I don't think that.
I think it just shows a Hey, it's what I've
been saying. For fucking years. Fantastic four is not a draw,
and I think that okay, So let's say, because like
I said, what is that the top four out of
five or Marvel films, you know, and then they got
another one with the Woman under in the top ten,
Like that's pretty considering, Like multiple brands are down or
not making money or having issues, right, so everybody, So
when you're in that scope of hey, biggest openings of
COVID top five, you got four of the top slots.
That's pretty good. Of course you want me doing better,
I get it, right, They've had lots of bumps in
the road. But that's why for me, I don't necessarily
to me that the Fantastic four is a turning point.
But the biggest indicator is vendors, which I think Avengers
Doomsday clears a billion easy. I think you even get
to the two billion. I think I'm more in the
run of like a one point five. I think if
it's as good as an Infinity War or even an Endgame,
then I'm actually in the two point billion camp. I
don't think any of them will be because Endgame nearly
got to three right Game box Office, and I totally
misspelled endgame awesome. Let's say two, yeah, two point seven
nine to nine billion, So let's just say two point eight.
I don't think either of them would do that. My
thing would be, I would say, because Secret Wars were
just assuming he has those returning stars, right, So that's
why I feel like that clears an easy two billion.
To me, My trajectory is like Doomsday. Let's just say,
like on the base of it, they're just fine, like
they're seven to at tens. Doomsday is a one point five,
and then Secret Wars is a two bill if they're better,
I could see Doomsday being at two, and I could
see Secret Wars being a two point five. But I
don't think they'll get up to endgame. Even two point
five seems like a lot like I'd be more comfortable
saying like two two twenty five or something like that. Right, So,
but if you look at that, let's say, on the
high even in the low on let's say the low
end of this tracking is right one point fifty, that
would put it at the seventh biggest opening, just under
Inside Out to Barbie Black, Panther Dock Trains, dead Pool,
Renning Home, great As Ins and Out too, Poplar Pixar
sequel Barbie won the biggest brands world and then a
bunch of Poplar Marvel characters. Right, And that's where to
get to Fantastic four, where I agree to an extent
when I do say it is pivotal moment because it's
supposed to be leading it is a big franchise. I
think there's just two types of pivotal moments. To me,
I think it's pivotal as far as what they can
make going forward, even more so, or just even if
they have another big brand winner, because same thing one
twenty five, one thirty five. That's a pretty good opening
week And let's look at that with the Marvels. Let's
see more MCU biggest opening weekends. Let's take a look.
Don't fail me, Google, last time you helped me out, franchise.
Let's see, can we get the opening perfect endgame number
at one fifty seven? It's or three fifty seven, just
fucking nuts. So it's like, that's it. That's such a
weird window. There's a window of like Captain America Civil
War at one seventy nine and then the next one
at thirteen, Inspire Men at ninety two. Such almost like
one hundred thousand different, right, but oh wait, no, that's
not it's not ranked. Hang on, my bad there, let's
say opening. There we go. Now it's right, that's better. Okay,
so let's go the high and for fentimes score to
help him out, right, let's say it's those one, three
five get early tracking. This could because they came out
after saying, oh, best pre sales day. This could be
higher or could be lower. Maybe I had those pre
sales for day one, but after be like, eh, I've
seen the Superman stuff. I want to go that. Let's see.
So if it was one we were saying one thirty five,
that would place it under four eleven thunder so that
would place it what is that fucking box office mojo?
I did the sorting, didn't change the number. So I
gotta count myself one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, okay, fifteen,
and there has been don't put the reel of releases
in here, fifteen out of thirty six. It has been
thirty six films and there's been fifteen, so it would
be above not above average, it'd be in the past halfway.
So actually, I would say above, it's Toughually what above averages?
I guess we'd have to get the average of that, right,
But what was that? Let's do some quick math here,
DA Let's say fifteen divided by thirty six is forty
one to forty two percent, so it'd be in that
top forty two percentile there. Let's see. I'm trying to
think of there's anything else to use this page four.
But yeah, and then you know, not too bad, like
I think again, tough to go off, like I think
that for Fantastic four in a time when the MCU
is rocky top fifteen sixteen opening, I think that's pretty good.
It's again about what happens after. Luckily, there's two signs
you can say this is that their last film. I
mean people save their money for it, or August comes
up and people go and see it over and over,
or people have paid all their money and they don't
need to see another superhero movie. Right, So for me,
it's not the be all end all. It's definitely a
pivot point of can they get fans back and can
they make them care about new big franchise like f four.
But to me, if this were to Bomber underperform. Let's
say it gets the same amount, just like a little
bit above Brave New World, even five hundred something like that, Right,
I wonder what they look at. It's like, what's their
sequel rate? Right, because even to me saying five hundred,
I would say, yeah, that's good, like give it another
chance to go. A seql F four is not a
big brand. People think that all the time because the
First Family have been around forever. Nah, Like I've not
met one fucker in real life that had the Fantastic
for as her favorite team or comic right, So that's
to me, it's like, I don't think that tracks. I
think that's like comic book you know, jargon for fans
like oh yeah I love these characters. Yeah, I'm sure
you do, of course, psych but that doesn't just because
you love them. Mike, I fucking loved the Hobb golbum.
But that doesn't mean he should be get his own spin
off movie it's gonna make a billion dollars. No, It
all depends on what the public likes. And also, at
least with all these other characters, Spider Man, X, Me
and Blaye, they got some good films to start off
with they had very the first three Runner three bad,
med mediocre, like I said, Kyle said that, which like
Kyle because I think he's just out of practice. When
I'm like against MCU, it's different, like, oh, I've seen
those before and they sucked. There will be people like that.
They oh those fantastic war movies, Yeah, those suck. I
don't even know one of those. So I think it's
just to prove for this brand. As I've said, Avengers
is the That's the true point to me. If that's
a movie that does anything below a billion, which I
don't think it would because we have no way home
and Deadpool will rain to prove us. But for some
reason it did blow a billion. That's where I'd say, officially, okay,
MS you big trouble. But I think both those are
like easy a billion and we'll see. But I just
jurastic world people love and you know they starting to
pour out here. Listen to that. Oh that smells good.
We're on our last topic. Because good, I can feel
some win push and I don't want the laptop to
get fucked up. Well, maybe this will be last topic.
I think we're good. But anyways, I think I'll speed
through the horror stuff. But last point is, I'm not
surprised by this tracking. Even if it's an old biggest
pre sales for twenty twenty five, Well then I'm so
sure Soupman's gonna cross that. You know, I just don't
think that has as much hype with the GA as
the other two do. I'm getting more and more excited
for it. But to me, this just makes us, especially
once we've seen everything right, because Superman could have had
just like a bunch of really bad trayers. Even if
there's some stuff I questioned him, I never thought anything
was bad. Think I had some bad showings and they go, okay,
Souper Fantastic four, they their prime, and who knows, maybe
get closer and things swaped, maybe F four gets better reception.
I know there's tests screens out there, but that doesn't
matter to me because I remember a test screening of
BVS and someone's saying it is better than the Dark Knight,
It's just as good, and well, you know, I'd say
for myself it was a far cry from the Dark Knight.
So let's take our last ad break and yeah, we
should we should be able to get through this topic.
Hopefully I don't get stormed out. We'll be right back,
and we're back, so