1
00:00:03,919 --> 00:00:09,279
Speaker 1: All right, everyone, Welcome in. It is finally here. The

2
00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:12,880
round of sixty four, Rob Vino starts today. These next

3
00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:14,960
two days, I've said this since I was in about

4
00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:19,640
sixth grade, the best two days on the sports calendar.

5
00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:24,039
It's not even close. Games are going to start at noon,

6
00:00:24,359 --> 00:00:27,920
they'll go past midnight. It is just the it's the

7
00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,079
best time of year. So I got my Sienna shirt

8
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,679
on probably the last day I'm gonna get to wear this,

9
00:00:33,799 --> 00:00:36,520
but I'll wear it proudly today Rob, because we're in

10
00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,479
the NCAA tournament for the first time since twenty ten.

11
00:00:40,399 --> 00:00:43,320
I'm all fired up, ready to go. I've only I

12
00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,320
did finish my energy drink. I've also been up since

13
00:00:45,359 --> 00:00:47,840
five am. I don't even need the caffee today, Rob,

14
00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:51,479
I could have probably done without it. Welcome in. How

15
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,000
is your night last night? And we'll get this thing started.

16
00:00:55,079 --> 00:00:57,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, last night was good. Two and one got the

17
00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,280
I know we probably could have parlayed up here on

18
00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,840
one game, because you love the Miami of Ohio side.

19
00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,519
I had the total over even without BJ Edwards. I

20
00:01:07,519 --> 00:01:10,120
felt SMU could still score. That was the case. That

21
00:01:10,159 --> 00:01:12,920
game went over, and boy, the second game that I

22
00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,760
had for clients that won last night was the New

23
00:01:15,799 --> 00:01:19,079
Mexico Sam Houston State game, over which one hundred and

24
00:01:19,159 --> 00:01:22,040
ninety points never in doubt was part of our parlay yesterday,

25
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,400
which we can put a few dollars signs next to

26
00:01:24,599 --> 00:01:28,359
show parlay wins. I was wrong with the Kent State

27
00:01:28,439 --> 00:01:31,319
team total though, Adam. The complete no show out of

28
00:01:31,359 --> 00:01:34,799
a Kent State team that I generally regard as a

29
00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,079
team that comes to play every night. That was a

30
00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,879
little bit surprising, the fact that they were just never

31
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,560
in it. But two and one will take. Show parlay

32
00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:48,159
winning will take, and we're onto today. Where As I

33
00:01:48,159 --> 00:01:51,319
think this through now because we're so busy these last

34
00:01:51,359 --> 00:01:55,159
few days, I have my first four percent play of

35
00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,239
the year goes today in the NCAA tournaments that's up

36
00:01:58,239 --> 00:02:01,200
been available right now and get into today's board, because

37
00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,120
I know that's what people are thinking and real quick.

38
00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,519
As somebody who's lived in Las Vegas for twelve years

39
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,439
and been part of that madhouse that is the first

40
00:02:09,439 --> 00:02:12,759
and second day of the NCAA tournament, it is amazing

41
00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:14,840
to me, Adam, not to take up too much time,

42
00:02:14,879 --> 00:02:17,120
but it's amazing to me that back in the day,

43
00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,840
you know I was there even before I moved. There

44
00:02:20,879 --> 00:02:22,759
was there in nineteen eighty eight for the tournament that

45
00:02:22,879 --> 00:02:26,319
I'm there, living there from ninety one to three or two.

46
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,400
You know, you could still get in the place was jammed,

47
00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,120
but you could still get in. Nowadays you got to

48
00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,000
buy your way into a sports took to see games.

49
00:02:36,039 --> 00:02:39,919
It's just incredible the way this has grown. As you mentioned,

50
00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,800
I don't think there's two days on the sports calendar

51
00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,280
that compared to these. And I might even go full

52
00:02:45,319 --> 00:02:47,719
weekend because Saturday Sunday are right there too.

53
00:02:49,599 --> 00:02:49,840
Speaker 3: Yeah.

54
00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:51,719
Speaker 1: I for the first time in a long time, I've

55
00:02:51,759 --> 00:02:55,879
got no plans this weekend. Mallory's going with her parents

56
00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,919
to Florida for like the week starting tomorrow. It's going

57
00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,439
to be me dog number one, dog number two, and

58
00:03:02,479 --> 00:03:05,240
I'm not leaving. I'm not moving. I may go down

59
00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:06,919
to Turning Stone for a little bit. Other than that,

60
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,280
I am. I refuse to move.

61
00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:10,479
Speaker 3: One on one for me.

62
00:03:10,599 --> 00:03:14,759
Speaker 1: Last night, I lost in the nit with George Washington,

63
00:03:14,759 --> 00:03:18,199
who loses by one. Gotta stop betting Utah Valley because

64
00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,479
all they do is just lose games that they're right

65
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,960
there with by one and couldn't even get a shot

66
00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,439
off on the final possession, but we got it back

67
00:03:25,599 --> 00:03:26,599
with Miami of Ohio.

68
00:03:26,759 --> 00:03:28,520
Speaker 3: That was our parlay Legan.

69
00:03:28,599 --> 00:03:31,759
Speaker 1: So yes, we come into today Rob one in one

70
00:03:31,879 --> 00:03:34,439
split for me, but a nice parlay winner for us.

71
00:03:34,479 --> 00:03:37,400
Speaker 3: Here on the show, very very quick. I don't have

72
00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:38,400
much to report.

73
00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,319
Speaker 1: I said I would come on and report nit news

74
00:03:41,439 --> 00:03:45,360
and injury stuff. Basically every team that won last night

75
00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,520
was at full strength. So again we're not gonna focus

76
00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,479
on the teams that already got eliminated. But all of

77
00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,439
the winners last night, with the exception the only one

78
00:03:54,479 --> 00:03:57,360
I can find. Only notable guy that did not play

79
00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,599
would be Luke Hunger Hunger from George Washington. But the

80
00:04:01,639 --> 00:04:04,240
thing is Castro played, and he played thirty minutes and

81
00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,840
he played great. So Hunger is really only like super

82
00:04:07,919 --> 00:04:10,840
valuable in my opinion, Like he was huge for them

83
00:04:10,879 --> 00:04:13,719
when Castro was out, but with Castro back, like I

84
00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,040
don't even have you know, cal everyone played, They looked

85
00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,000
really good. Saint Joe's everyone played, they went in and

86
00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:23,439
won out right. Nevada did spread the minutes around, so

87
00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,480
I guess that's the final thing I'll throw out here.

88
00:04:25,519 --> 00:04:27,920
But they were up though, Rob, so you know, Steve

89
00:04:27,959 --> 00:04:30,959
Alford maybe looking at this as more of a let's

90
00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,560
see who I've got on my team, because they really

91
00:04:34,639 --> 00:04:37,160
like spread the minutes around last night. But other than that,

92
00:04:37,199 --> 00:04:40,839
I don't have much to report from the NIT, so

93
00:04:41,319 --> 00:04:43,279
we'll just get right into it. I didn't plan a

94
00:04:43,319 --> 00:04:46,560
feature game because they're all feature games. We got sixteen

95
00:04:46,639 --> 00:04:49,160
tournament games. There's not one that's bigger than the other.

96
00:04:49,319 --> 00:04:51,879
So let's start with Garth and he says, you know,

97
00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,360
I really like Penn plus twenty five and a half today,

98
00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:56,560
and I think this is kind of an interesting one

99
00:04:56,560 --> 00:05:00,639
to start with rob because of course, you know, you

100
00:05:00,759 --> 00:05:05,480
got the status of Ethan Roberts. I'm guessing he's not

101
00:05:05,519 --> 00:05:08,360
gonna play, but he did go through practice. He's there,

102
00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,639
He went through practice yesterday. I think fran McCaffrey said

103
00:05:11,639 --> 00:05:14,480
that they would sort of reevaluate him and see if

104
00:05:14,519 --> 00:05:17,519
he could give it a go. Honestly, you know, the

105
00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,319
other one, TJ Power. My guess is he just he

106
00:05:20,399 --> 00:05:23,519
probably is ill. He probably is sick, but I doubt

107
00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,000
he's sick enough to not play. I think you know,

108
00:05:26,079 --> 00:05:28,800
Wednesday for these guys, when you show up to the

109
00:05:28,879 --> 00:05:32,120
NCAA tournament Wednesday. It's it's really like, you know, it's

110
00:05:32,199 --> 00:05:33,680
kind of like I think you get like a forty

111
00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,720
five minute practice on the court, but it's mostly like

112
00:05:36,879 --> 00:05:40,000
media nonsense. So my guess is like Penn was probably

113
00:05:40,079 --> 00:05:42,439
just like, yeah, you're good, Like, go rest up, we

114
00:05:42,519 --> 00:05:46,079
need you tomorrow. I can't I can't see a scenario

115
00:05:46,079 --> 00:05:49,959
where TJ. Power doesn't play here rob for Penn, and

116
00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,759
I think if Ethan Roberts can give it a go,

117
00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,720
I think he will. But his is a little bit

118
00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,360
tricky because you've got to you know, they're not just

119
00:05:55,399 --> 00:05:58,279
gonna clear you if you still have concussion symptoms. So

120
00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,480
twenty five and a half, though, is getting up there

121
00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,920
on the number. So are you with Garth, do you

122
00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,000
think Penn can cover this or are you gonna look

123
00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:07,839
total in this game?

124
00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,480
Speaker 2: Probably too risky from the Penn's side. TJ Power, I

125
00:06:13,519 --> 00:06:16,920
mean every shot he threw up in the championship game

126
00:06:16,959 --> 00:06:19,399
of the IVY League went in forty four points in

127
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,279
that one. He was amazing. I think he had in

128
00:06:22,399 --> 00:06:24,399
watching that, I think he had like twenty three in

129
00:06:24,439 --> 00:06:27,480
the first half. He was just going crazy for Penn

130
00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:32,600
in that one. Covering for the Ethan Roberts subtraction, the

131
00:06:32,639 --> 00:06:34,800
Ethon Roberts situation. Like you say, it's crazy because I

132
00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:36,000
just think back to last night and I know we

133
00:06:36,079 --> 00:06:38,319
worked at a dwell. I'm losing teams in the NIT,

134
00:06:38,519 --> 00:06:41,279
but Poe boy King gave it a shot for Sam

135
00:06:41,319 --> 00:06:44,199
Houston last night and that shot made it about seven minutes.

136
00:06:44,959 --> 00:06:47,519
And if you get one of these where I'm going

137
00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,839
to try and go but I can't go, then I

138
00:06:51,959 --> 00:06:56,720
planned on Roberts not being available in this game, Adams.

139
00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:58,319
So that's just the way I handicapped it. I think

140
00:06:58,360 --> 00:06:59,920
it's the way we had the handicap it this week.

141
00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,879
No power would make it even worse, or or a

142
00:07:04,639 --> 00:07:08,319
let's just say a subpar TJ power would make it worse.

143
00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:09,800
I don't know that for a fact, but when you're

144
00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,720
handicapping these things, you got to take all angles. Illinois,

145
00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:19,240
I said this about conference tournaments, but to me, Illinois

146
00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,240
is in full reset mode for this tournament. We did

147
00:07:23,279 --> 00:07:26,279
that Sunday show together Adam with the Wager Talk with

148
00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:30,319
our Wager Talk colleagues, and I pointed out multiple times

149
00:07:30,319 --> 00:07:32,240
there was a point in this season, maybe even two

150
00:07:32,279 --> 00:07:35,279
thirds of the way through, where I thought Illinois was

151
00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:38,480
going to be the team that I'm that I would

152
00:07:38,519 --> 00:07:41,040
talk about the way I'm talking about Arkansas right now.

153
00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,959
I thought they would be that team outside the ones,

154
00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:48,519
the one seeds that could be a potential I don't

155
00:07:48,519 --> 00:07:51,879
know that Arkansas is a potential NCAAA champion, but Illinois

156
00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,519
could give it a run. So deep, so talented, bigs

157
00:07:55,519 --> 00:07:58,839
that can shoot from the outside, guards that you know,

158
00:07:58,879 --> 00:08:01,279
a pair of point guards that are as good as

159
00:08:01,319 --> 00:08:04,600
it gets in the NCAA basketball. I don't know if

160
00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:08,720
Illinois plays their a game. I don't see any area

161
00:08:08,879 --> 00:08:13,120
in this contest where Penn matches up zero. The one

162
00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,639
thing I did think of was, well, maybe Fran will

163
00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:20,360
slow this down, and he does have familiarity with Illinois

164
00:08:20,639 --> 00:08:22,920
a little bit, but I don't know that his personnel

165
00:08:22,959 --> 00:08:25,879
can overcome it. So I'd be scared. Garth. I understand

166
00:08:25,879 --> 00:08:29,480
the points are substantial, and a lot of these teams

167
00:08:30,319 --> 00:08:33,000
when they get to We've talked about this a little

168
00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:34,559
bit too, Adam, when he gets to that five to

169
00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:36,720
six minute mark left in the game and the games

170
00:08:36,759 --> 00:08:40,679
in hand, we clear the bench. The issue for me

171
00:08:40,759 --> 00:08:44,320
is that Illinois can go about nine deep and even

172
00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,639
the bench. Maybe he can still score, so I'd almost

173
00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:49,759
rather look at total. But I'm afraid of how many

174
00:08:49,799 --> 00:08:52,399
Pen can score. So in a game that I thought

175
00:08:52,399 --> 00:08:56,559
initially I was gonna have a pretty good a pretty

176
00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,279
good handicap on, I just don't at this point in time.

177
00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:02,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to.

178
00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,000
Speaker 1: I want to just focus on the number here, because,

179
00:09:05,039 --> 00:09:09,000
like listen, I do think if you're just straight up

180
00:09:10,159 --> 00:09:13,000
like looking at like you know, what's a plus ev

181
00:09:13,159 --> 00:09:17,080
number to bet at, right, I can see why you

182
00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,639
would want Penn plus twenty five and a half. So

183
00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,000
let's say Penn was let's say Pen was full strength.

184
00:09:22,799 --> 00:09:25,200
Speaker 3: I made this. I made this.

185
00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:29,840
Speaker 1: Illinois eighteen point nine, that is with Pen at full strength.

186
00:09:29,879 --> 00:09:30,879
Speaker 3: So that would be my number.

187
00:09:31,159 --> 00:09:33,720
Speaker 1: If if Penn had all of their players, I would

188
00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,799
have I would make Illinois an eighteen point nine point favorite.

189
00:09:38,039 --> 00:09:38,360
Speaker 3: For me.

190
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,440
Speaker 1: Ethan Roberts is probably worth three to four points for

191
00:09:42,519 --> 00:09:45,240
that team on the number, just with his his usage

192
00:09:45,279 --> 00:09:49,720
and how much better they are with him available. I think,

193
00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,159
you know, again, I have a hard time quantifying. I

194
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:57,679
never really know how to quantify a player properly in

195
00:09:57,799 --> 00:10:01,360
college college basketball, right, Like again, like you talk about

196
00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,600
a team like Pen, but then you put the matchup

197
00:10:03,639 --> 00:10:06,519
in the context context of okay, can we hang Illinois?

198
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:07,799
Speaker 3: Can we hang with Illinois?

199
00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,600
Speaker 1: Maybe eating Roberts is actually worth more than three points

200
00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:13,960
or four points right there. But long story, sure, I

201
00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,720
if he's out on mirror where this opened at twenty

202
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,720
one and a half, I think TJ.

203
00:10:19,879 --> 00:10:20,600
Speaker 3: Power plays.

204
00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,759
Speaker 1: I again, if you're if you're TJ Power and it's

205
00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,399
and you're sick, like I mean, I'd have to be

206
00:10:27,519 --> 00:10:30,879
borderline dead to not go out on that court and

207
00:10:30,919 --> 00:10:33,879
give it a go, right, Like you know, it's not

208
00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,279
like you have an injury like Roberts. Listen, eat the

209
00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,720
Roberts may say I want to play. That's different. He's

210
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,600
got a concussion. If you're just having battling an illness,

211
00:10:41,639 --> 00:10:43,279
I feel like you get out there and just leave

212
00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:45,559
it all out on the floor. So like again, I

213
00:10:45,919 --> 00:10:48,440
think twenty five and a half is probably there is

214
00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,799
some value to that number because now you're talking about

215
00:10:51,279 --> 00:10:52,960
if the books were on the same page as me

216
00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,480
and said okay, no Roberts twenty one and a half,

217
00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,240
why what is the four point move for here? Because

218
00:10:59,279 --> 00:11:02,440
even when I even when I updated my number without

219
00:11:02,519 --> 00:11:05,559
Roberts and gave Illinois the benefit of the doubt. I

220
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:07,679
was only at twenty two. That's what I have written

221
00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,919
here is twenty two point two. So you're talking about

222
00:11:10,919 --> 00:11:11,559
like twenty five.

223
00:11:11,639 --> 00:11:12,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, Garth.

224
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:16,320
Speaker 1: From a straight number standpoint, I don't dislike that that.

225
00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,600
I would not be trying to lay twenty five and

226
00:11:18,639 --> 00:11:21,519
a half with Illinois. You missed your chance. If you

227
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,080
didn't bet Illinois so far, you missed your chance. It's

228
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,480
got to be pan or pass at that number in

229
00:11:26,519 --> 00:11:27,039
my opinion.

230
00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:33,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, the only and your biggest concern. Again, with a

231
00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:35,559
lot of these teams, Adam, you and I talked off

232
00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,000
their about Duke Sienna when we hashed that one out,

233
00:11:38,159 --> 00:11:41,279
the fact that Duke could pull people with six minutes stleft.

234
00:11:41,279 --> 00:11:43,360
You're already a bang up basketball team. Why would you

235
00:11:43,399 --> 00:11:44,799
play everybody all the way through if you have a

236
00:11:44,799 --> 00:11:46,960
big league Same goes for any of these twenty plus

237
00:11:47,039 --> 00:11:50,799
point favorites. The thing we never try to quantify with

238
00:11:50,919 --> 00:11:52,960
these players is we always look at what they bring

239
00:11:53,039 --> 00:11:55,759
from a point scoring perspective. We never really talk about

240
00:11:55,799 --> 00:11:57,919
the defensive end. I don't know a single guy on

241
00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,519
pen that's probably capable. I mean, it's got to be

242
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,840
team defense. But if you just match these guys up

243
00:12:03,879 --> 00:12:08,519
one on one, Illinois has advantages offensively over Illinois could

244
00:12:08,519 --> 00:12:10,799
probably score at will in this game. I just looked up.

245
00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,399
Penn played Villanova early this year. Ethan Roberts only played

246
00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:16,919
eleven minutes in that game. Mata. Maybe he got hurt

247
00:12:16,919 --> 00:12:18,360
in at Villanova game early on too.

248
00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:20,600
Speaker 3: I don't that was that was the game. I believe.

249
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,720
I believe that's the game he got the concussion, yeah, and.

250
00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,279
Speaker 2: So he was out early. They get beat by twenty

251
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:30,559
three by Villanova and gave up ninety to a team

252
00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:35,720
that's not extremely athletic. Penn's defensive side would worry me

253
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:40,799
as much as the rebounding on the offensive end. But again,

254
00:12:40,879 --> 00:12:43,039
we're betting numbers here, Like you say, twenty five and

255
00:12:43,039 --> 00:12:44,879
a half is large, and you do have that late

256
00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,799
game concern. You could be down thirty with six minutes

257
00:12:47,879 --> 00:12:50,799
left and get under this number because Illinois just yanks

258
00:12:50,799 --> 00:12:53,039
guys out in preparation for Saturday.

259
00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's I think that's a very good

260
00:12:57,879 --> 00:13:00,440
sort of point that you're gonna have to take into

261
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:04,159
all of these big like one verse sixteen type games,

262
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:09,080
Like you know, the sixteen seed doesn't go win like

263
00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,840
they might you know, they're they're gonna hype themselves up

264
00:13:11,879 --> 00:13:14,399
like and think they have a chance to win, but

265
00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:20,039
like in reality, it's it's maybe maybe one of them

266
00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,639
will win, but they will all get a chance to

267
00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:27,279
play in an NCAA tournament, And like as sixteen seed

268
00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:29,840
is typically gonna play there, even if they're down twenty two,

269
00:13:30,279 --> 00:13:33,320
they're gonna be out there playing hard, like it's still

270
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,440
a thrill for them. So yeah, I think that that's

271
00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:37,840
a good point in basically every game where you've got

272
00:13:37,879 --> 00:13:41,679
like a one versus sixteen or a very heavily favored

273
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:45,600
two versus fifteen, just know that like those last five minutes,

274
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,440
like even if Penn was down thirty, those last five minutes,

275
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,519
like they're they're gonna continue to play and play hard

276
00:13:51,519 --> 00:13:54,000
Sienna the same way let's say Sianna is down thirty

277
00:13:54,039 --> 00:13:57,080
to Duke. I don't see any scenario where they're not

278
00:13:57,159 --> 00:14:00,480
playing their hardest in that final six minutes. Where yeah,

279
00:14:00,519 --> 00:14:02,360
some of these teams, especially the ones that have been

280
00:14:02,399 --> 00:14:04,519
a little bit more banged up, are gonna have to

281
00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:06,360
start looking towards Saturday.

282
00:14:06,879 --> 00:14:07,759
Speaker 3: And it's why you're.

283
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,759
Speaker 1: Not gonna find me, you know, laying huge numbers with

284
00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,600
one seeds in this round very often. I don't think

285
00:14:13,639 --> 00:14:16,200
it's better than fifty to fifty against the spread. I'd

286
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,399
need someone to check that for me, but I would say,

287
00:14:19,559 --> 00:14:22,200
you know, sixteens probably cover half.

288
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,200
Speaker 3: Of the time. I think it's fair to say that

289
00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:25,200
that's probably the case.

290
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:31,399
Speaker 1: So yeah, good, good discussion there, And and yeah, if

291
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,399
you're gonna again, I'd be weary of laying twenty five

292
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:35,879
and a half with Illinois. I think you have to

293
00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:41,639
go dog or pass. All right, quick promo. I've got

294
00:14:41,679 --> 00:14:44,360
four plays locked in for clients already today. I'm sure

295
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:48,600
Rob's got a bunch locked in. I actually I love

296
00:14:48,879 --> 00:14:49,759
my four plays.

297
00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:50,039
Speaker 3: Rob.

298
00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:53,000
Speaker 1: I'm scared at how much I love them. You know

299
00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:56,600
I've been locking them in. I added a couple this morning.

300
00:14:56,679 --> 00:14:59,000
A couple are from earlier in the week. I will

301
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,440
give one of them out on the show that'll That'll

302
00:15:01,519 --> 00:15:04,000
likely be a parlay leg. But if you want the

303
00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,639
full card, headed over to wager Talk and just grab

304
00:15:07,679 --> 00:15:10,720
the joint package between Rob and I. You'll get all

305
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,840
of our plays for three straight days Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

306
00:15:14,039 --> 00:15:15,639
Speaker 3: That's some good bang for your buck right there.

307
00:15:15,679 --> 00:15:18,080
Speaker 1: With how much I've already got a five percenter locked

308
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,480
in for tomorrow and two plays on tomorrow's slate, so.

309
00:15:23,159 --> 00:15:25,480
Speaker 3: There's probably the best value of the year. Rob for

310
00:15:25,559 --> 00:15:27,080
the double the Firepower.

311
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,919
Speaker 1: CBB, I don't think you could find a better three

312
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:30,360
day window to use it.

313
00:15:31,799 --> 00:15:35,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, And you know we've got four consecutive

314
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,480
days and we're gonna have n I T Saturday, Sunday

315
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,320
too at them, which I'm sure we'll hit your card

316
00:15:40,639 --> 00:15:43,240
in some capacity. I know it'll hit mine after we've

317
00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,440
seen these first run games go through. So yeah, guys,

318
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:50,480
and the other option to that is just extended out

319
00:15:50,679 --> 00:15:54,120
through the National Championship Game because you're gonna have all

320
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:58,159
these tournaments available to you. So once again, double the

321
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,960
Firepower CBB. He's from Adam and myself. I'll just add

322
00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:06,720
one last time, a lot of sides from Adam, mostly

323
00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:11,960
sides ninety for myself ninety five percent on the totals angle,

324
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,559
so you get a good mixture of plays and guys,

325
00:16:14,639 --> 00:16:15,840
let me just I don't want to I'm gonna take

326
00:16:15,879 --> 00:16:19,039
thirty seconds here really quick. It was brought to our attention.

327
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,519
Adam and I really don't cross check each other. Adam,

328
00:16:22,559 --> 00:16:24,200
who do you got Rob, who do you got? We

329
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,679
really don't CRUs. We've never discussed games, but we're not

330
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:29,720
going to cross check. We just put our plays in

331
00:16:29,759 --> 00:16:31,720
and it was brought to our attention because I kind

332
00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,240
of wandered out of the totals lane, and it decides

333
00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:38,279
this week that we did butt heads. I think it

334
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,919
was three plays last week was mentioned to us Adam. Guys,

335
00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,320
if you see that in the package, Adam has one

336
00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,000
side of a game. I have another side of the game. Please, please,

337
00:16:46,039 --> 00:16:49,360
please please, I can't emphasize that enough. Use your best judgment.

338
00:16:50,759 --> 00:16:53,200
If you don't have a lot of faith in your

339
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,600
opinion on the game and you see us on both sides,

340
00:16:56,279 --> 00:16:58,759
common sense would say, just don't play. Let her go.

341
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,039
If you see Adam has a stronger opinion percentage wise

342
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,559
than I do, and meaning he might like it more

343
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:08,240
and you want to go that way, go that way,

344
00:17:08,279 --> 00:17:10,799
but I think to summit up quickly. Just please use

345
00:17:10,839 --> 00:17:14,480
your best judgment. We don't crosscheck. We've been doing this

346
00:17:14,559 --> 00:17:16,440
long enough to where neither one of us is going

347
00:17:16,519 --> 00:17:20,480
to talk the other off of something that we already like. Well,

348
00:17:20,519 --> 00:17:24,119
listen to counter sides. That's what's great about having a

349
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,720
colleague that's so knowledgeable as I can listen to Adam

350
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,480
and perhaps he can give me stuff I wasn't thinking of.

351
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,200
But we're rarely going to call up and say, oh,

352
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,319
you know, okay, you have that game. I'm not going

353
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,279
to play that game. It just doesn't happen. So please again,

354
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,680
if you see it inside the package, you may see

355
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:43,119
it opposite sides of a game because we like different teams.

356
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,960
Please please use your best judgment. It's not fair to

357
00:17:47,039 --> 00:17:49,079
the office here at Wager Talk to call up and

358
00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,119
complain and think that we're trying to pull some kind

359
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:52,920
of shenanigans on you. It just doesn't happen.

360
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, and listen, like, I don't take offense to this,

361
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,519
he says. I'm rolling with Veno over Trigg all day.

362
00:17:58,559 --> 00:18:01,200
Someone DM me over the weekend and said, hey, you

363
00:18:01,279 --> 00:18:02,279
and you're Robinot.

364
00:18:02,319 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 3: You are are opposite on this game.

365
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,680
Speaker 1: And I kind of, you know, I kind of just

366
00:18:06,799 --> 00:18:10,599
like had a DM conversation with with the client real

367
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,200
quick on Twitter and he was like, oh, He's like, no,

368
00:18:13,279 --> 00:18:15,440
I'm gonna gonna ride with you there. It's you know,

369
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:19,160
I think it was Arkansas over over Arkansas in the

370
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,480
SEC Final on Sunday or a Vandy and it was like,

371
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,759
He's like, I kind of like where your head is

372
00:18:24,759 --> 00:18:26,400
at here, I'm gonna go with you. The point is

373
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,440
it's rare that it's gonna happen. If it does, you

374
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:31,279
can just throw the game out. There's plenty of other

375
00:18:31,319 --> 00:18:34,079
games to bet, or just you know you're good. That's

376
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,559
the nice part about. You're getting the analysis so you

377
00:18:36,599 --> 00:18:38,799
can read it and then say, Okay, I like this,

378
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:40,839
I dislike this, but yeah, it did come up a

379
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:45,319
couple a couple of times down the stretch. I don't

380
00:18:45,319 --> 00:18:49,039
know why someone's saying Trigg is overdue. I'm on like

381
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,759
my third straight month of winning here, I'm like eleven

382
00:18:51,799 --> 00:18:55,000
and two in my last thirteen picks, and I at

383
00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:56,960
one point last week I hit nine in a row.

384
00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:59,119
So I don't think I'm really over I had a bet, listen,

385
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,599
I had a bad November in December. We're like one

386
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:05,160
good weekend away from that being a very very distant memory.

387
00:19:05,519 --> 00:19:07,519
Speaker 3: I think I'm up. I think I've made back eighty.

388
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,759
Speaker 1: I think I'm eighty four units since January first, so

389
00:19:10,799 --> 00:19:12,839
it's been a really good run. And again, a couple

390
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:16,200
splits to start this week, but I hope, I hope

391
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,599
we continue to just just stay hot and I want

392
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,319
Rob to win as many as well. So double a

393
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:26,160
firepower CBB package. You're gonna get all our plays. Check

394
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:27,119
that out wager.

395
00:19:26,799 --> 00:19:27,759
Speaker 3: Talk dot Com.

396
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,319
Speaker 1: Rob, I want to talk about this. This is the

397
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,079
wrong game. That is a that is a Friday game.

398
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,559
Hold on a second. I am in the chat and

399
00:19:36,599 --> 00:19:38,599
I've picked the wrong I want to go to Noah

400
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:43,359
Jones super chat right here, Noah Jones. I missed Noah

401
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:44,920
a couple of times earlier in the week when he

402
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:46,599
when he asked for something, so I wanted to make

403
00:19:46,599 --> 00:19:49,480
sure we got him in the mix with this game.

404
00:19:49,559 --> 00:19:53,200
So we're gonna stay the two verse fifteen seed line. Here,

405
00:19:53,799 --> 00:19:56,079
Noah says, love Tennessee State as a fifteen seed, but

406
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,119
I hate their matchup with Iowa State.

407
00:19:58,799 --> 00:19:59,039
Speaker 3: Yeah.

408
00:19:59,079 --> 00:20:00,880
Speaker 1: We kind of alluded to this earlier in the week

409
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,440
that some of these underdogs were put in very bad

410
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,920
matchups for the underdog, and I would say this is

411
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,839
one of those matchups right here. Tennessee State. Props to

412
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,720
Nolan Smith. I love what he's done in the first

413
00:20:13,759 --> 00:20:15,920
year there. I think you and I Rob started talking

414
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,880
about this League back in January, thinking that Tennessee State

415
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,640
was the strongest team, and they proved to be the

416
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:23,839
strongest team in this league.

417
00:20:24,599 --> 00:20:29,599
Speaker 3: But they're very athletic, they get up and down.

418
00:20:30,079 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 1: I think Nolan Smith sort of is the anti analytics

419
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:36,160
guy when it comes to just like, you know, get

420
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,559
the athletes going. They'll take bad shots, but they make

421
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,279
a good amount of them, a lot in transition, a

422
00:20:43,319 --> 00:20:44,480
lot going to the rim.

423
00:20:45,279 --> 00:20:46,160
Speaker 3: Noah, I'm with you.

424
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:50,279
Speaker 1: That's a terrible way to attackle attack Iowa State. And

425
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,319
this is one where I was, you know, it would

426
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:56,160
have been favorite or pass because Iowa State is the

427
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,119
type of team that I think will blow games open

428
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,640
against these lesser schools. And also rob they might have

429
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,680
a little bit of a chip on their shoulder given

430
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,359
how their regular season ended. They lose that thriller to Arizona.

431
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,200
So this is one scenario where I might lay the

432
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,839
big number. I haven't done it yet, but talk to Noah,

433
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:16,359
Tennessee State, Iowa State.

434
00:21:17,759 --> 00:21:19,759
Speaker 2: I think you know, I just smiled when I saw

435
00:21:19,799 --> 00:21:22,319
the the comment because I think it happens to all

436
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:27,319
of us, like especially you know, I'm not trying to

437
00:21:27,319 --> 00:21:29,279
put us on a pedestal but I'm gonna say, especially

438
00:21:29,279 --> 00:21:31,640
like you and I will refollow all the mid majors. Right,

439
00:21:31,799 --> 00:21:34,079
A lot of people follow Power Conference in not mid majors.

440
00:21:34,079 --> 00:21:37,119
But when you're following mid majors, you look forward to

441
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,920
being able to bet them first round of the tournament,

442
00:21:41,079 --> 00:21:45,240
and then you see the matchup and you're like, you know, capitalist, hi,

443
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:49,079
t Dan, they get there, yeah, against that team, And

444
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,000
this is one of those cases. I think Noah put

445
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,880
it beautifully. One of the problems Tennessee State's gonna have

446
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,799
here is that they were able to feast on their

447
00:21:55,839 --> 00:22:00,599
opposition getting turnovers, and Iowa States just so veteran in

448
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,839
that back court led by Lipsey, that they're not going

449
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,400
to turn it over against this team. And they face

450
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,240
such defensive pressure inside the Big twelve that they're more

451
00:22:09,279 --> 00:22:12,720
than used to it, accustomed to it. So, like you're saying, Adam,

452
00:22:12,759 --> 00:22:15,200
it's just a bad matchup. You wish Tennessee State could

453
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,240
have been placed against somebody else where. We could have

454
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,200
played them. And honestly, out of all you know, all

455
00:22:20,279 --> 00:22:24,200
of the lower seeded teams, let's say, from twelve down

456
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,559
generally this past four days since attorney was announced, they

457
00:22:28,599 --> 00:22:31,960
get a lot of publicity, a lot of media coverage,

458
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,160
A lot of guys come out of the woodwork nationally

459
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,200
and claim that team X has a chance to do

460
00:22:38,279 --> 00:22:41,759
some damage. Tennessee State is one of those mid majors.

461
00:22:41,759 --> 00:22:44,440
It hasn't drawn a lot of talk from anywhere, you know,

462
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,480
not the way that say like high Point has or

463
00:22:49,079 --> 00:22:51,640
I'm sure there's other examples, maybe Hofstra has since the

464
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:57,200
Alabama suspension to Holloway or non suspension. I don't even

465
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,119
know if it's a suspension yet. But Northern Iowa against

466
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,400
Saint John's State as laid under the radar, and you

467
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,079
would love to get there with a team that's under

468
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,400
the radar. But again, matchup is difficult. It really is.

469
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,640
Iowa State very good basketball team, started to prove at

470
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,119
the end of the year what we thought from the

471
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,440
beginning of the season that they were Elite eight quality.

472
00:23:15,519 --> 00:23:17,039
They definitely have the personnel to be that.

473
00:23:20,079 --> 00:23:24,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's just if they're going to give

474
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,839
up all this all this transition. Oh yeah, I highlighted

475
00:23:27,839 --> 00:23:30,279
the comedy. I like that Drigg coming apart at the seams.

476
00:23:30,319 --> 00:23:31,880
He's so excited. Of course I am.

477
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 3: We have it.

478
00:23:33,079 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 1: Not only is it the NCAA Tournament. But Siena has

479
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,759
not played in the NCAA tournament since twenty ten. And

480
00:23:38,039 --> 00:23:40,640
your boy was spoiled when he was a student because

481
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,079
two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine, and twenty

482
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:47,160
ten it was NCAA Tournament win over Vandy, NCAA tournament

483
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,799
went over Ohio State. The twenty ten team was the

484
00:23:49,799 --> 00:23:51,440
best one of all and they just drew a very

485
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,799
good Purdue team. So yeah, I am absolutely just ready

486
00:23:54,839 --> 00:23:58,400
to implode here. And I just cracked another diet coke.

487
00:23:58,599 --> 00:23:59,960
I said I wasn't going to do it, and here

488
00:24:00,079 --> 00:24:01,880
it was at the desk and now I'm drinking more cappy.

489
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,200
So yeah, I turned up just to get back to

490
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:07,920
this game. So someone in the chat said, yeah, this

491
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,920
is a Friday game, so that's okay. If you know,

492
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,039
if we get a super Chat request for it, we're

493
00:24:13,039 --> 00:24:16,759
gonna do it. And we you know, we haven't talked

494
00:24:16,759 --> 00:24:20,000
about this game at all this week, so I'm not

495
00:24:20,039 --> 00:24:23,119
gonna spend a ton more time on it. They're gonna

496
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,480
give up transition to Iowa State, and Iowa State is

497
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,039
probably going to drop a hundred on Tennessee State in

498
00:24:29,079 --> 00:24:33,079
this game. If that's the case. The points become a

499
00:24:33,079 --> 00:24:36,039
little less valuable when you're laying points, Like you know.

500
00:24:36,079 --> 00:24:37,759
I made the parallel earlier in the week when we

501
00:24:37,799 --> 00:24:41,000
talked Duke Siena, where it was like, that's probably gonna

502
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:45,880
be a slower game less possessions, whereas like Tennessee State's

503
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,599
not going to play a slower game with less possessions.

504
00:24:48,599 --> 00:24:51,559
They're just gonna I can't see them doing anything other

505
00:24:51,599 --> 00:24:55,039
than playing their game and seeing if they can hang around.

506
00:24:55,079 --> 00:24:57,319
So at twenty three on the open, I actually think

507
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,279
Iowa State's a pretty good bet there. Even if you

508
00:25:00,279 --> 00:25:02,279
can get a twenty, like, there's still twenty four and

509
00:25:02,279 --> 00:25:03,759
a half. I think I'd go as high as to

510
00:25:03,759 --> 00:25:05,920
say twenty four and a half is a fine that.

511
00:25:06,279 --> 00:25:08,880
I think this is Iowa by thirty maybe more. I

512
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,359
think this one's gonna get ugly.

513
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 3: Clem.

514
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 1: Of course that was my I already finished the peach

515
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,200
Mango bang. I've been up since five am. It's ten

516
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,799
twenty five here on the East coast. That's long gone,

517
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:26,839
but real quick promo. So the other thing I want

518
00:25:26,839 --> 00:25:29,720
to promote our show, but also the fact that we

519
00:25:29,759 --> 00:25:32,240
are live and on demand, so right now we're not

520
00:25:32,319 --> 00:25:34,279
going to hit on Like, if you go back into

521
00:25:34,319 --> 00:25:37,119
the time stamps of yesterday's show in the day before,

522
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,799
you'll find our full Arkansas Hawaii breakdown, and you will

523
00:25:40,799 --> 00:25:46,160
find our full TCU Ohio State breakdown. So those two

524
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,000
games I'm not going to talk about on this show

525
00:25:48,039 --> 00:25:51,519
because we already devoted an entire sort of segment to

526
00:25:51,559 --> 00:25:55,279
them on the last two days. So TCU Ohio State,

527
00:25:55,519 --> 00:25:58,200
I believe we did that one yesterday and then on

528
00:25:58,279 --> 00:26:02,759
Tuesday Arkansas Hawaii. They already got the full sort of

529
00:26:02,799 --> 00:26:06,279
treatment on this show. So I'm gonna go to the

530
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:10,000
chat Rob. This one is getting the most conversation in

531
00:26:10,039 --> 00:26:14,440
the chat right now of everyone and Steve Duke. I'm

532
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,519
gonna bring Steve Duke in here. Shout out Steve Duke.

533
00:26:16,559 --> 00:26:20,519
He's always watching this show, contributes every day as well.

534
00:26:20,559 --> 00:26:23,559
And he says everyone seems to think I'm wrong, but

535
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,720
I like BYU versus Texas. He says, I know BYU

536
00:26:26,759 --> 00:26:29,440
pissed everyone off this year, but BYU are pretty tough

537
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,640
down the stretch. Steve, I'm very much in agreement with you.

538
00:26:33,759 --> 00:26:36,359
This might not have been the dream season for the

539
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,880
BYU Cougars that they expected, but they just got themselves

540
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,799
a dream matchup in the first round of the NCAA

541
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,920
tournament by Texas winning that game, Rob, I like the Cougars.

542
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:51,279
Are you getting involved BYU Texas the newest matchup? We

543
00:26:51,279 --> 00:26:53,799
didn't know this matchup until Tuesday night. We now know

544
00:26:53,839 --> 00:26:56,519
it's BYU Texas. What do you got in this one?

545
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:02,839
Speaker 2: Well, just to further good scenarios for BYU, they've gotten rest.

546
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 3: Adam.

547
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,799
Speaker 2: We talk about these layoffs as rest versus RUSS twenty twenty. Hindsight,

548
00:27:07,839 --> 00:27:12,160
it's hard to tell. I can honestly say that from

549
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,359
my standpoint, at least for BYU, having this time off

550
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,880
is extremely helpful to this team, which had to play

551
00:27:21,319 --> 00:27:25,400
tough matchups all the way down the stretch against competition

552
00:27:25,559 --> 00:27:28,519
from what some would argue is the best conference in

553
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:33,480
the country, and shorthanded with the bands to trying to

554
00:27:33,519 --> 00:27:37,359
take the whole thing on with Rob Wright adding support

555
00:27:37,519 --> 00:27:40,480
because of the Richie Saunders injury about seven eight games ago.

556
00:27:40,599 --> 00:27:43,200
So I just think that the rest was so valuable

557
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:49,359
for BYU that we're gonna see them at full potency offensively,

558
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,400
so to speak, here tonight. I still and I guess

559
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,519
you know, maybe I was dead wrong the other day

560
00:27:55,839 --> 00:27:59,039
when I came on and said, I don't know what

561
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:02,920
Sean Miller and what Will Wade can take from game

562
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:07,079
tape in November a matchup I don't know if it

563
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,160
was the third and three days whatever that was in

564
00:28:10,319 --> 00:28:13,519
the tournament in Maui. I didn't know that they could

565
00:28:13,519 --> 00:28:17,559
take anything from that matchup game tape wise and apply

566
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,920
it and make the outcome a little bit different. They

567
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:22,319
didn't make it a little bit different. They made it

568
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,279
a lot different. That game was so low scoring, so

569
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,240
polar opposite of what their first matchup was. Texas BYU

570
00:28:29,759 --> 00:28:31,559
don't have that luxury going to see each other for

571
00:28:31,599 --> 00:28:33,920
the first time. This is quick on the fly preparation

572
00:28:34,039 --> 00:28:38,680
for Texas. Certainly they had to prep really really hard

573
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,440
for NC State. It's not like that was a look

574
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,559
ahead game to where they could have focused their attention

575
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,359
forward to BYU, thinking if we win, let's just go

576
00:28:46,839 --> 00:28:51,319
prep for BYU. Doesn't happen. So now here we are

577
00:28:51,359 --> 00:28:53,240
in this game, and I kind of love the total

578
00:28:53,799 --> 00:28:56,799
to go over here. I think BYU, rested at full

579
00:28:56,839 --> 00:28:59,640
offensive force, can take advantage of Texas defense. And I

580
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:01,799
can say the same on the other side, because Brigham

581
00:29:01,839 --> 00:29:07,480
Young certainly is limited somewhat in what they can do defensively.

582
00:29:07,559 --> 00:29:10,440
Defense that has to extend themselves so much on the

583
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,480
offensive end to be what BYU needs him to be.

584
00:29:14,119 --> 00:29:16,400
That you know, he can sort of take a little

585
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,400
bit of time off on the defensive side. Texas is

586
00:29:18,519 --> 00:29:22,599
very capable scoring wise. We pointed that out. Texas does

587
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,839
foul a bunch, as we pointed out, although they have

588
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:29,640
corrected it to an extent, corrected that issue. I just again,

589
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,359
I think this is going to be polar opposite of

590
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,519
what Texas did the other day against nca State. I

591
00:29:33,559 --> 00:29:38,039
think Greennessee points here. Let me just get a current

592
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:42,240
number on this game as far as total is concerned.

593
00:29:42,359 --> 00:29:45,400
It team totals I can see right here BYU seventy

594
00:29:45,519 --> 00:29:48,200
nine and a half eighty. Got to say I could

595
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,599
be in for that as well. And full game total

596
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,960
here guys, as we speak, numbers are moving. One fifty

597
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,680
eight seems to well. One fifty seven and a half

598
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:03,039
actually prevails too. So it in this NCAA tournament board,

599
00:30:03,079 --> 00:30:07,680
which has seen almost every game bender under under, this

600
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,920
game hasn't moved hardly at all. And there's a lot

601
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,079
of one fifty eight still there, So for me, I

602
00:30:13,079 --> 00:30:15,440
think this game hits one sixty plus. I like that

603
00:30:15,599 --> 00:30:16,920
end of it. Adam, I think it's going to be

604
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:18,559
a little bit of an offensive battle, which is what

605
00:30:18,599 --> 00:30:23,079
we expect generally speaking out of Byu' game played in Portland.

606
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,240
Got to consider a little bit of travel for for Texas.

607
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,400
But I think we've seen in the past these first

608
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,519
four teams don't necessarily run out of gas in the

609
00:30:32,599 --> 00:30:36,079
second game, So for me, it's probably gonna be an overplay.

610
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,079
Speaker 1: Well, for me, this is going to be our parlay league,

611
00:30:39,359 --> 00:30:42,079
and I am going to I'll give one of my

612
00:30:42,119 --> 00:30:44,680
four client I've got four client plays right now for

613
00:30:44,759 --> 00:30:47,640
today to locked in for tomorrow. I will most likely

614
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,519
be adding at least one more. You know, I'm not

615
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,039
I'm feeling good about how things are going right now,

616
00:30:53,079 --> 00:30:54,680
so I'm not going to be shy. I think the

617
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,920
first this weekend probably your best opportunity for the rest

618
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,359
of the way to really make in the NCAA tournament.

619
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,039
Not that not that there's not good spots in the

620
00:31:03,119 --> 00:31:05,799
later rounds, but you know there'll be far less chances

621
00:31:05,799 --> 00:31:08,000
once you're in the sweet sixteen or not so I'm

622
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,920
not leaving anything off. I really like BYU here and

623
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,319
I went b YU money line at minus one thirty

624
00:31:13,359 --> 00:31:16,359
five for clients right now it really hasn't moved much.

625
00:31:16,759 --> 00:31:19,400
Might be minus one forty or minus one forty five.

626
00:31:19,519 --> 00:31:19,839
Speaker 3: We will.

627
00:31:20,359 --> 00:31:22,319
Speaker 1: I'll let Rob tell me what a fair money line

628
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,319
is to put in a parlay. But with this one

629
00:31:24,359 --> 00:31:27,039
comes down to me. Where this one comes for me,

630
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:32,079
Rob is the fact that b YU this is this

631
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,000
is the best case scenario for them because they they

632
00:31:35,079 --> 00:31:38,079
got a team that's gonna let them ice that that's

633
00:31:38,079 --> 00:31:41,920
gonna force them to ISO score. And if you're BYU

634
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,400
right now in the post Richie Saunders era, that's exactly

635
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,240
what you want to see. You want a defense that's

636
00:31:48,279 --> 00:31:52,440
going to basically you want Aj Devansa in ISO right

637
00:31:52,519 --> 00:31:54,799
like you. You want a defense that's gonna allow him

638
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,440
to get to win a one on one matchup or

639
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,279
get get to a scenario where it's just him the

640
00:32:00,319 --> 00:32:02,160
ball and he's got to, you know, make a move

641
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:03,160
and try to get a shot off.

642
00:32:03,519 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 3: Same thing with Rob.

643
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: Right What you don't want right now if you're BYU

644
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,160
is a team that's gonna like maybe zone you maybe

645
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,400
force you to really spread the floor, because that's what

646
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:16,599
they've struggled to do now. Rob I noted when I

647
00:32:16,599 --> 00:32:20,400
started to write this one up that you know BYU

648
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,440
and the post Richie Saunders era, right, which is since

649
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,920
he's gotten hurt, they do have a couple of kind

650
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:31,279
of like very very good wins. You know, they knocked

651
00:32:31,319 --> 00:32:35,599
off Iowa State in Texas Tech, both in the post

652
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:39,319
Richie Saunders era for them, which is again this is

653
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,799
just since he's been hurt. And then at the Big

654
00:32:41,799 --> 00:32:44,799
Twelve Tournament, they beat Kansas State, they beat West Virginia,

655
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,599
and they played a respectful game, a respectable game with

656
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:48,759
a very good Houston team.

657
00:32:49,119 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 3: So there's it's.

658
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,559
Speaker 1: Possible that they're starting to figure it out a little

659
00:32:52,599 --> 00:32:55,440
bit as well. And I think what people are losing

660
00:32:55,519 --> 00:32:58,039
track of here is the fact that, like there were

661
00:32:58,039 --> 00:33:00,440
people that thought b YU was winning a national chamampionship

662
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,920
this year coming into the season, like that's how highly

663
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:07,359
they were rated. They probably aren't that, But all you're

664
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,400
asking them to do here is beat a Texas team

665
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,000
that needed a buzzer beater to get buy NC State,

666
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,319
and is just not like this is just not a

667
00:33:15,319 --> 00:33:16,480
good matchup for Texas.

668
00:33:16,559 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 3: The final thing.

669
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: I'll say, Voca Titis guy can't stay out of file trouble.

670
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:22,799
He even got into trouble a little bit in the

671
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:23,759
NC State game.

672
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 3: And like the.

673
00:33:26,279 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 1: Drop off for them on the front court when he

674
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,880
is not on the floor is notable.

675
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 3: It's substantial.

676
00:33:32,319 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: And so you know, if BYU can just get him

677
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,480
into file trouble or de bands that can just capitalize

678
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:42,000
on these one on one ISO opportunities, BYU is probably

679
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,160
gonna win this game. And so for that reason, I

680
00:33:44,279 --> 00:33:47,680
am on BYU. That's a four percent client play for

681
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,240
me at minus one thirty five, and that will be

682
00:33:51,039 --> 00:33:53,200
the first leg of our parlay. Rob did you what

683
00:33:53,359 --> 00:33:55,160
is the fair money line for BYU?

684
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 3: Right now?

685
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,839
Speaker 2: It looks mostly one forties all the way across Adham.

686
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,640
I see one thirty seven in one.

687
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 1: Spot and there is we'll call it, well, we'll call

688
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,640
it one forty again obviously shop around.

689
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,039
Speaker 3: I put that out this morning.

690
00:34:10,079 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: I did notice it like it ticked up a little

691
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:15,800
bit before we got on the on the show. So again,

692
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:19,840
minus one forty for the parlay is perfectly fine. And yeah,

693
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,599
I I just think that they've been sort of had

694
00:34:23,599 --> 00:34:26,559
to hear it for the last three four weeks, but

695
00:34:26,639 --> 00:34:28,880
they it. But I haven't heard one person say, you

696
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,199
know what, BYU is playing better basketball, which they If

697
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,280
you're going to beat Texas Tech and then go to

698
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,519
the Big twelve Tournament, win two games, and then play

699
00:34:36,559 --> 00:34:39,480
Houston tight, I think you can officially say they're playing

700
00:34:39,519 --> 00:34:42,440
better than they were in those first couple games without Saunders.

701
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:46,519
So b Yu for me, love the Cougars here. They

702
00:34:46,559 --> 00:34:49,280
live to at least the round of thirty two. I

703
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,400
do have a small BYU future from the beginning of

704
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,320
the season that is likely a coaster rob at this point,

705
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,880
but I think they at least get to the round

706
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:01,000
of thirty two. So go Kobs, all right, mad Max,

707
00:35:01,079 --> 00:35:02,920
let's go to this game. This is another one. I

708
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,320
don't think we've talked about this at all on any

709
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,360
show yet, so I'm glad that you brought this one up.

710
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,239
The reason I haven't really brought it up, Rob is

711
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,440
you can't find I can't find a bigger coin flip

712
00:35:14,519 --> 00:35:18,400
than VCU UNC right now. My number comes out right

713
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,239
on where the number is, and I kind of see

714
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,639
a path to victory for both teams here.

715
00:35:23,679 --> 00:35:26,079
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna let you kick this one off. Mad

716
00:35:26,079 --> 00:35:27,559
Max likes U n C. Tonight.

717
00:35:28,079 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 1: Do you have any interest in the UNC side, he says,

718
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,480
If not, what about the team total?

719
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 2: You know, Kelly put us on the spots Sunday at

720
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:37,400
this Sunday show, And.

721
00:35:37,519 --> 00:35:39,599
Speaker 3: No, you wouldn't do such a thing.

722
00:35:41,559 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: I am not what well, and she knows obviously we

723
00:35:45,079 --> 00:35:47,960
all work together, so she knows everybody's tendencies, but she

724
00:35:48,079 --> 00:35:52,920
knows that I'm not one to come up with outrageous scenarios.

725
00:35:53,519 --> 00:35:55,320
I just kind of stick to my lane. I'm not

726
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,519
gonna make some kind of outrageous claim so that in

727
00:35:58,599 --> 00:36:00,880
case it wins, I can live off of that for

728
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,519
the rest of my career. But she did ask for it,

729
00:36:04,559 --> 00:36:07,119
give me some kind of hot take, something that people

730
00:36:07,119 --> 00:36:10,239
don't see coming that maybe will happen. And mine was

731
00:36:10,679 --> 00:36:14,480
and I think legitimate that there's potential for VCU to

732
00:36:14,559 --> 00:36:16,760
find their way through this round, through the Round of

733
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:18,920
thirty two, and then into the sweet sixteen. So that

734
00:36:19,039 --> 00:36:21,639
was my so called hot take. Take that for what

735
00:36:21,679 --> 00:36:25,039
it's worth. VCU definitely has a path to victory here,

736
00:36:25,079 --> 00:36:29,239
as does UNC. UNC is the more talented team, I think,

737
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:33,280
even despite the fact that they lose Caleb Wilson lost

738
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,400
him a few games ago, and just like you mentioned

739
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,199
with Richie Saunders a minute ago, Adam, we have discussed this.

740
00:36:38,599 --> 00:36:42,400
The further these teams get away from an injury and

741
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,400
the more time they have to form something cohesive, the

742
00:36:45,519 --> 00:36:48,639
less that injury really means anymore. And with Caleb Wilson,

743
00:36:48,679 --> 00:36:51,960
he hasn't played in a while, and Vesar has taken

744
00:36:52,039 --> 00:36:54,719
over and been able to do a lot in the post.

745
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:56,440
Maybe he could do a lot in the post here.

746
00:36:56,679 --> 00:37:01,960
But VCU under Martelli Junior is is such a different style.

747
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:09,440
UNC probably played I don't know, something similar in FSU,

748
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,000
but FSU just doesn't play the defensive end as good

749
00:37:13,039 --> 00:37:16,440
as Virginia Commonwealth does, So to me, VC you can

750
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:21,519
cause some headaches on UNC's offensive end for sure, and

751
00:37:21,599 --> 00:37:24,119
turn that into points as well. So for me, I

752
00:37:24,159 --> 00:37:27,360
do think the VCU has a legitimate shot to win here. However,

753
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,400
I can see the counter argument for North Carolina totally

754
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,599
here open one four bet down to one fifty one

755
00:37:34,599 --> 00:37:37,920
and a half, which you know, I would say surprising,

756
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,440
but not surprising because as I mentioned earlier, NCAA tournament

757
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,440
games just blindly get bet to the under up and

758
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:49,480
down the board universally under under, under, under, under, different venue.

759
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:56,119
Whatever the reasoning is. I saw a I saw a

760
00:37:56,280 --> 00:38:01,480
little video by good friend colleague Ralph Michaels, who actually

761
00:38:01,519 --> 00:38:05,079
pointed out unders do come through at an alarming rate

762
00:38:05,519 --> 00:38:08,400
in the first round. So maybe mechanically just play unders.

763
00:38:08,519 --> 00:38:13,519
But I always lean towards matchups speak louder than any

764
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,519
you know, three year trend might point two, and this

765
00:38:16,559 --> 00:38:20,519
matchup just doesn't appeal to me as an undergame, Adam,

766
00:38:20,559 --> 00:38:23,079
I think there's ways to score for both, but the

767
00:38:23,159 --> 00:38:26,960
question was about side. I could make a case for both.

768
00:38:27,159 --> 00:38:29,920
As I mentioned earlier, VCU gets through here, they would

769
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:32,400
play Illinois, who's been somewhat of it. Again, you're just

770
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,679
taking the fact that they've been somewhat underachievers this year,

771
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,119
and maybe VC you could get past them to this

772
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,719
big guard play on Illinois. But for this game in particular,

773
00:38:42,519 --> 00:38:44,960
I don't know. I could see the underdog here push

774
00:38:45,079 --> 00:38:47,000
up in the line to two and a half. I

775
00:38:47,039 --> 00:38:49,840
could also see UNC winning a close game by three

776
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,159
or four using the big guy, especially using the big

777
00:38:53,199 --> 00:38:56,719
guy the star to carry them through this one.

778
00:38:59,199 --> 00:39:03,519
Speaker 1: I actually I lied about this being my number being

779
00:39:03,599 --> 00:39:06,000
right on my number is actually closer to pick, so

780
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:11,480
it it's like I made it like zero point one

781
00:39:12,639 --> 00:39:14,840
North Carolina, which is a set, I'll just essentially call

782
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:15,320
that pick.

783
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,639
Speaker 3: So if I was to just trust my number.

784
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 1: Here, actually VCU does sort of make the cut in

785
00:39:20,559 --> 00:39:22,280
terms of, like, you know, I feel like I've got

786
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,159
two and a half points of line value. But I

787
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,920
think I'm reading the chat and I'm agreeing with a

788
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,880
couple of the takes in the chat. Where my main

789
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,559
concern with VCU was was scoring and if they would

790
00:39:34,559 --> 00:39:37,119
be able to put enough points up to beat North

791
00:39:37,119 --> 00:39:40,079
Carolina in this game. My main concern for North well,

792
00:39:40,079 --> 00:39:42,400
I guess part of the reason that I would gravitate

793
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:45,639
towards VCU, other than seeing a two and a half

794
00:39:45,639 --> 00:39:49,440
point numerical edge, is because I don't know if UNC

795
00:39:49,559 --> 00:39:53,880
scores enough out to outlast VCU. So ROB do I

796
00:39:54,119 --> 00:39:56,960
Is it as simple as just saying I like the

797
00:39:57,039 --> 00:40:00,559
under here because I think both defenses probably play well

798
00:40:00,599 --> 00:40:04,159
and I see both teams maybe having some trouble putting

799
00:40:04,159 --> 00:40:06,360
the ball in the hoop, So this kind of feels

800
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,400
like an under to me. May I may sort of

801
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,800
just give my opinion out on the total and say, well,

802
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:13,280
my number likes VCU on the side, but I'm not

803
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,000
confident enough in that, so you know, do what you

804
00:40:16,039 --> 00:40:16,480
will with that.

805
00:40:16,519 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 3: But under kind of makes a lot of sense here.

806
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I said, the pace of game will probably

807
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,039
be quick. If I'm just a counter with you know,

808
00:40:27,079 --> 00:40:30,280
we always make those two columns assets liabilities. If I

809
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,360
was going to play under, I would say, well, pace

810
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,679
of play is probably going to give us enough possessions,

811
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:39,159
enough chances to score, where VCU is always concerned you

812
00:40:39,199 --> 00:40:41,920
can end up in somewhat of a foul game. The

813
00:40:42,039 --> 00:40:44,639
game lined at two and a half might suggest that

814
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,440
down the stretch last ninety seconds we're in one of

815
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:51,840
those foul score foul score type of deals. So extension

816
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:55,679
could to the total could happen. But if we're just

817
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,880
speaking fundamentally throughout the course of the game, those other

818
00:41:00,039 --> 00:41:02,760
asset points are well taken. VCU does not shoot the

819
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:06,760
ball well. UNC has had some periods of time where

820
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,559
they've struggled, but I think they've been a better scoring

821
00:41:08,599 --> 00:41:11,880
team than somethin interesting matchup, Adam, one of the better

822
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,320
ones for today. When you have an opinion on a total,

823
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:17,480
I'm gonna I'm gonna go by you because you don't

824
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:21,119
have a lot of opinions on totals. So we'll see

825
00:41:21,119 --> 00:41:23,679
how that would goes. But the question was about UNC,

826
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,440
and I'm not going to talk anybody off of U

827
00:41:25,519 --> 00:41:29,199
n C. I do you know the Greenville venue might

828
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,960
help U n C. They're going to travel much better

829
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,119
to South Carolina, although VCU fans Virginia is a hop

830
00:41:35,159 --> 00:41:38,719
skipping to jump away as well. Richmond is not that far,

831
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,400
so we'll see, but I think the stands might be

832
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:46,039
dominated by UNC Carolina Blue today.

833
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, some some green and gold to be scattered around

834
00:41:49,519 --> 00:41:52,800
that venue. Rob Uh, don't worry about that. We got

835
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:56,920
we got some people going down. But yeah, that's listen again.

836
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,000
If you the final thing I'll say about this game,

837
00:41:59,079 --> 00:42:03,239
if you do like UNC, I would not be that

838
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,519
surprised if that two and a half got hit at

839
00:42:05,559 --> 00:42:08,800
some point. My gut tells me VCU is gonna take

840
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,320
some money here over the next hour or two, and

841
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,920
if they do, you might get that money line knockdown

842
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,199
where you can just simply take North Carolina to win.

843
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:20,239
That is far more appealing in my opinion, Like if

844
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,159
if you can get like a minus one thirty money

845
00:42:22,159 --> 00:42:24,360
line on UNC to win as opposed to having to

846
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,039
lay two and a half, that's far more appealing. That's

847
00:42:27,159 --> 00:42:29,599
I would wait. If you like North Carolina, I think

848
00:42:29,599 --> 00:42:32,760
the right move is to wait. My gut says VCU

849
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,400
is getting hit here probably as soon as I say

850
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,599
on this show, because that's how this that's how how

851
00:42:37,599 --> 00:42:39,719
it goes, Rob. As soon as we start talking about

852
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:43,119
something on a show, the board starts moving. So uh yeah, wait,

853
00:42:43,159 --> 00:42:47,480
if you like UNC, in my opinion, all right, this

854
00:42:47,519 --> 00:42:51,679
is one, so Rob this, let's revisit this game, Garth says.

855
00:42:51,679 --> 00:42:55,400
Another player like as USF in quotes upsetting Louisville. Now,

856
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,280
this one we talked about quite a bit, but it

857
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,360
was part of our our selection Sunday show when the

858
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:03,440
brackets first came out. And then I think you and

859
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:08,119
I sort of went into this game on Monday before

860
00:43:08,199 --> 00:43:10,239
all the news, you know, before the news was official

861
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:13,960
that mckel brown wouldn't play, and you know, quite frankly,

862
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,719
when USF was a much better number than it is now.

863
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:20,760
But I agree with the sentiment here, Garth with upsetting

864
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:22,519
in quotes, I don't think it's that much of an

865
00:43:22,599 --> 00:43:26,559
upset if South Florida wins this game. I almost think

866
00:43:26,599 --> 00:43:30,199
the lesser team and the teams that Louisville profiles as

867
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,239
the mid major here, Rob, they're gonna have to hit

868
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,519
a whole bunch of threes to win this game, while

869
00:43:34,639 --> 00:43:38,480
us SEP is the bigger, stronger, faster, more physical team. So, Garth,

870
00:43:38,639 --> 00:43:40,840
I have to agree with the way you phrase that.

871
00:43:41,199 --> 00:43:42,920
I don't think it'd be that big of an upset

872
00:43:43,079 --> 00:43:45,760
if South Florida leaves Buffalo with a win this afternoon,

873
00:43:46,159 --> 00:43:48,000
and if you can still get a five, I think

874
00:43:48,079 --> 00:43:51,400
that's playable, even if it's five minus one twenty. Rob,

875
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:54,119
your thoughts USF Louisville, are you in line there?

876
00:43:54,119 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 3: And what about the total?

877
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 2: Yeah? You know, And I was reading a little bit

878
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:00,320
about how this might be a little bit of a

879
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:04,719
homecoming for Brian Hodgson, head coach of USF, obviously started

880
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:09,199
on the staff of NATO's at Buffalo, so for him

881
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,079
maybe a little meaning. I don't know how that would

882
00:44:11,119 --> 00:44:14,239
work into a handicap, just a little general fact. I

883
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:18,440
like the South Florida side. I said it before this season.

884
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:21,719
I've been on Louisville a couple of times into their credit.

885
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,840
They've come through for me playing them team. Total wise,

886
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,440
this game's going to be fast, up and down. Neither

887
00:44:28,519 --> 00:44:31,519
team knows any other way to play. But I do

888
00:44:31,599 --> 00:44:34,000
think that South Florida can sort of force the issue.

889
00:44:34,039 --> 00:44:39,440
You know, it's often said that a team that presses

890
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:43,280
hates to be pressed back. I'm not going to use

891
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:45,599
the press, so to speak here, but I'm going to

892
00:44:45,679 --> 00:44:48,760
say that a team that loves to play extreme tempo,

893
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,400
you know, it doesn't exactly like extreme tempo right back

894
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,960
down their throats. And that's kind of how I see this.

895
00:44:56,119 --> 00:44:59,840
For the Louisville side, they're the favorite side South Florida

896
00:45:00,119 --> 00:45:04,119
to me. And I know Adam, you were on him

897
00:45:04,119 --> 00:45:06,639
since the start of the season, but to me, they

898
00:45:06,639 --> 00:45:09,320
played their best basketball down the stretch. They look better

899
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:11,280
and better and better every time I see them now.

900
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,880
They've cleaned up some things defensively, which makes them a

901
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,719
little bit better. I can't say the same for Louisville

902
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:19,880
on that end. If you would ask me, know, if

903
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:21,480
you and I were given a piece of paper with

904
00:45:21,639 --> 00:45:25,519
all let's just say eighteen names of the top nine

905
00:45:25,559 --> 00:45:27,360
on each side, and you and I got to draft

906
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:30,599
the guy who got more Louisvio players, would probably be

907
00:45:30,639 --> 00:45:34,119
in good shape. But that aside, I just think as

908
00:45:34,119 --> 00:45:37,079
a team, South Florida plays the game the way Louisvio

909
00:45:37,159 --> 00:45:40,639
plays it, they play it better, and as you said earlier,

910
00:45:40,679 --> 00:45:43,880
the fact that they go to the rim so much

911
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:47,360
more than Louisville does. And when you're minus mckel brown

912
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,199
shooting threes, it makes a difference. Go back and look

913
00:45:50,199 --> 00:45:52,199
at some games. It makes a difference when he's not

914
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:55,039
out there to help shoot these things. And South Florida's

915
00:45:55,039 --> 00:45:57,639
got the time to prep for that. That perimeter defense,

916
00:45:57,639 --> 00:45:59,400
I would expect to be a little bit better here today.

917
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,559
They're gonocus on it. Louisville might get in some foul

918
00:46:02,599 --> 00:46:04,920
trouble trying to defend South Florida go into the rim.

919
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,920
So for me, I've liked South Florida since the beginning.

920
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,719
Obviously the world likes him, and maybe that's because they

921
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:12,719
figured out or not they figured out, but it was

922
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:16,320
announced that Brown officially wouldn't play. So we're staring at

923
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:17,960
four and a half now. If you got it early,

924
00:46:18,079 --> 00:46:19,559
and I think you got a five and a half

925
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,320
anticipating the Brown not playing, Remember I sent you that

926
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,840
thing earlier in the week. Louis occur Courier Journal reporting

927
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,400
that he's available to play, and then all of a sudden,

928
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:29,599
he's not going to play.

929
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 1: I think we on our shows all week were pretty

930
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:37,079
adamant that Brown was not gonna play, and BJ Edwards

931
00:46:37,039 --> 00:46:39,199
was not going to play, and BJ Edwards did not

932
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:43,079
play last night. For SMU, Louisville was nice enough to

933
00:46:43,119 --> 00:46:45,960
at least tell people a few days before that Brown

934
00:46:46,079 --> 00:46:49,800
is out, because I don't think Edwards ever had any

935
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,119
intention of playing, but SMU did a heck of a

936
00:46:52,199 --> 00:46:55,679
job trying to make it look like he was. Listen,

937
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,360
you know, there's probably some correlation here if you like Louisville,

938
00:46:59,360 --> 00:46:59,880
which I do not.

939
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:02,119
Speaker 3: I like South Florida. In this game, I think South.

940
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:04,800
Speaker 1: Florida is gonna win, But if you like Louisville, they

941
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:06,800
are going to They're gonna have to shoot a lot

942
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:08,960
of threes to win, like there's no question, Like they're

943
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:12,840
gonna probably have to win a high scoring shootout type game,

944
00:47:13,119 --> 00:47:15,400
similar to the game they beat Miami maybe a week

945
00:47:15,519 --> 00:47:17,199
or two ago, where it was like ninety two to

946
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:20,360
eighty nine. So I definitely definitely think there's some correlation

947
00:47:20,519 --> 00:47:24,840
Louisville over But but for me, I just don't without

948
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,079
mckel brown, I don't trust them to play that game

949
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:31,920
efficiently enough to beat South Florida, who's just like you said,

950
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:33,000
they've been playing their best ball.

951
00:47:33,159 --> 00:47:34,639
Speaker 3: Something. I'll put one more thing I want to point

952
00:47:34,679 --> 00:47:35,960
out about South Florida.

953
00:47:36,599 --> 00:47:41,119
Speaker 1: They basically hired a defensive coordinator this year in Tobin Anderson,

954
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:45,280
who was Iona's head coach last year kind of was

955
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:49,239
just like fired at like just randomly fired because he

956
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:51,519
didn't do a bad job, but you know, they wanted

957
00:47:51,519 --> 00:47:54,199
to go in a different direction, and so Hodgson brought

958
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,239
him in as almost like in a associate head coach

959
00:47:57,360 --> 00:48:01,400
type higher. But his number one entire job was just

960
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,719
the defense. And so I mean he's a great head coach,

961
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:08,480
Tovin Anderson. Of course you'll see him, especially if Sianna

962
00:48:08,519 --> 00:48:10,760
wins today. Rob you'll see him a lot because he

963
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:13,239
was the last sixteen to beat a one when he

964
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:16,239
was at Fairley Dickinson. But you made the point South

965
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:19,880
Florida's defense has improved, Yes, that was him. Like he's

966
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:23,159
taken this team, which was very all over the place

967
00:48:23,199 --> 00:48:25,679
defensively at the beginning of the year, and they've played

968
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:29,039
great defense the last month or so. It's because they

969
00:48:29,039 --> 00:48:31,639
have a head coach there that's straight up coaching their defense,

970
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,599
and in a really good one at that. He also

971
00:48:34,639 --> 00:48:36,320
got a head coaching job. He's gonna be the next

972
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:39,840
head coach at Tennessee Tech. So props to Tobin Anderson.

973
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,159
But for this South Florida team, I think that's why

974
00:48:42,199 --> 00:48:46,119
you've seen this really big jump Defensively, they're the better

975
00:48:46,119 --> 00:48:46,519
team here.

976
00:48:46,559 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 3: I don't know how else to say it.

977
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,519
Speaker 1: You're getting You're still even at the bad number, you're

978
00:48:50,559 --> 00:48:54,320
still kenching points with the better team, as simple as that.

979
00:48:57,639 --> 00:48:59,760
All right, rob Bino, I have one question that I

980
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:03,039
want to go to in the chat that's not a

981
00:49:03,119 --> 00:49:05,960
game breakdown, So I'm gonna I'm just gonna bring this

982
00:49:06,039 --> 00:49:08,679
question out because I think this is very interesting. Uh

983
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:13,280
favorite Survivor play today from Veno and Trigg. People are

984
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,519
getting into college basketball Survivor.

985
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 3: I've done it. I'm in it this year.

986
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 1: I didn't do as many last year because I still

987
00:49:20,559 --> 00:49:23,159
was trying to feel it out. Essentially, what college basketball

988
00:49:23,199 --> 00:49:28,599
Survivor pools are there? You you cannot burn teams that

989
00:49:28,679 --> 00:49:31,039
you think are going to the Elite eight, the final

990
00:49:31,039 --> 00:49:33,400
four of the championship game. You straight up just cannot

991
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,199
use those teams in the early round or you will

992
00:49:36,199 --> 00:49:38,519
get to the later rounds with a chance with it

993
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:42,440
where you where you're taking a big underdog, probably in

994
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,119
an Elite eight game or a Final four game. So

995
00:49:45,159 --> 00:49:48,840
the key to survivor is finding a play that you

996
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,679
think wins today but likely loses in the round of

997
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:55,519
thirty two. And so favorite survivor play today from me,

998
00:49:55,599 --> 00:49:59,119
and then I'll let Rob have the floor. I think

999
00:49:59,159 --> 00:50:04,880
i'd looked toward Nebraska against Troy or Vanderbilt against McNee State.

1000
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:08,039
The reason being is I don't see either of those

1001
00:50:08,079 --> 00:50:11,719
teams getting upset. But you're also you've also got a

1002
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:17,199
double digit favorite. Now there is merit in these competitions

1003
00:50:17,199 --> 00:50:19,239
to getting a little bit crazy in the early rounds,

1004
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:21,960
especially if you have multiple entries. And then I would

1005
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,719
say maybe Saint Mary's or BYU would be worth a

1006
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,440
look as a small favorite. But when I'm seeing when

1007
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,079
I look at all the teams, all the spreads, all

1008
00:50:31,119 --> 00:50:33,480
those twenty point favorites, you don't want to use them

1009
00:50:33,639 --> 00:50:36,159
because you're gonna need them in later rounds. And then

1010
00:50:36,199 --> 00:50:38,360
I feel like Nebraska and Vandy are kind of sitting

1011
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:42,719
there for you at like double digit spreads, whereas like,

1012
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,159
I don't know, I think you have to take one

1013
00:50:45,199 --> 00:50:48,199
of those double digit favorites as opposed to like, yeah,

1014
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:50,559
like Saint Mary's might get through, BYU might get through,

1015
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:53,599
but all of those teams probably aren't making the Elite eight.

1016
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,760
Speaker 3: Or the Final four. So that's how I would approach it.

1017
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 1: I think Nebraska and Vandy are the two survivor plays today.

1018
00:51:00,519 --> 00:51:03,119
Rob anything to add there, and if not, feel free

1019
00:51:03,119 --> 00:51:05,079
to just move on to whatever you want to talk

1020
00:51:05,079 --> 00:51:05,920
about for the parlay.

1021
00:51:06,679 --> 00:51:11,320
Speaker 2: It's interesting as I look through it, Adam, I don't know,

1022
00:51:13,639 --> 00:51:15,880
just trying to comb the brackets, I don't know that

1023
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:20,920
I would be confident enough to use Illinois a second time.

1024
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:23,440
I just talked about how I think they could possibly

1025
00:51:23,519 --> 00:51:28,000
lose should BCU advanced, they could possibly lose if North

1026
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:31,320
Carolina wins that game, and as they move on the

1027
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:35,360
next step would be through Houston. So if I'm anticipating

1028
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:38,639
not using Illinois a second time, like just once and then,

1029
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:41,039
I don't think that I would use them again, I

1030
00:51:41,039 --> 00:51:42,639
think today would be the day to do it. Your

1031
00:51:42,679 --> 00:51:44,679
twenty five and a half point favorite, you shouldn't lose

1032
00:51:44,679 --> 00:51:47,679
the pen. But I think the opportunity for them to

1033
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:51,360
get beat the next couple of rounds not so much that,

1034
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:53,719
but the fact that I don't think I would use them.

1035
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 3: Sure. Yeah, that's a great one, really good point. That's

1036
00:51:57,039 --> 00:51:58,039
a really good point.

1037
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, if you don't, if you don't think the

1038
00:52:01,119 --> 00:52:04,360
ali and if if there's gonna be a matchup, that's

1039
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,000
another great point, Rob if there's gonna be not gonna

1040
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:09,159
be the matchup that you want with a team that's

1041
00:52:09,199 --> 00:52:12,199
not like in your Elite eight or Final four, those

1042
00:52:12,199 --> 00:52:13,679
are who you're gonna want to use over the next

1043
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:16,320
couple of days. So yeah, if you're if you think

1044
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:20,599
Troy or McNeice is live for an upset, Illinois probably

1045
00:52:20,679 --> 00:52:24,559
is the safest of any survivor pick that would make

1046
00:52:24,639 --> 00:52:27,440
sense today because all the other ones that are quote

1047
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:30,519
unquote safer picks. You need those teams, You need the Dukes,

1048
00:52:30,559 --> 00:52:33,000
you need the Michigans. But if, yeah, if if you

1049
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:35,320
can do without Illinois. I don't disagree with that at all.

1050
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:40,559
Let's a that's a that's a good point. And yeah,

1051
00:52:40,599 --> 00:52:43,320
if you so, we've got eight minutes left, it's gonna

1052
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:45,360
be at minimum of two team or maybe we'll agree

1053
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:46,960
on a leg, but I'm gonna throw it to Rob

1054
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:49,679
any game he wants to talk about and lock his

1055
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:51,199
parlay leg in right here.

1056
00:52:52,119 --> 00:52:54,119
Speaker 2: And I'll give you one that we have talked little,

1057
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,000
if at all about. I don't think we hit on

1058
00:52:57,039 --> 00:53:01,639
this game whatsoever, type point spread, but I'm going to

1059
00:53:01,679 --> 00:53:04,119
go to style of play here, and it's been bet

1060
00:53:04,199 --> 00:53:05,840
up a little, but I'm going to play Saint Mary's

1061
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,599
minus three against Texas A and M was two and

1062
00:53:08,599 --> 00:53:11,079
a half better number than three, obviously, but now you

1063
00:53:11,119 --> 00:53:13,239
have to lay the three. But I'm going to do it.

1064
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:15,239
We often talk about in this tournament you get out

1065
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:19,599
of conference. We hit on this on the Sunday Show.

1066
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:24,039
The most difficult thing to me where matchups are concerned

1067
00:53:24,199 --> 00:53:28,880
in these NCAA tournament non conference games is unique style.

1068
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:33,360
And there's no more unique style than Saint Mary's as

1069
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:36,559
far as slow basketball is concerned. You put that up

1070
00:53:36,599 --> 00:53:38,639
against a team that just wants to go the way

1071
00:53:38,679 --> 00:53:41,840
Bucky Ball does want to go at Texas A and M,

1072
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:46,239
and I think it causes problems just from a conceptual standpoint,

1073
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:49,280
I think that matchup causes problems no matter who it

1074
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:53,519
is to further that you would say that Texas A

1075
00:53:53,599 --> 00:53:56,320
and M probably lost more than day one down the

1076
00:53:56,360 --> 00:54:00,320
stretch of the SEC season because the Sea the Seed

1077
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:05,800
teams were granted the ability to see Bucky McMillan's style,

1078
00:54:06,119 --> 00:54:07,880
and as the season went on, it got less and

1079
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:11,039
less effective. Maybe the players burnt out a little bit,

1080
00:54:11,159 --> 00:54:13,159
not used to the conditioning that it takes to play

1081
00:54:13,199 --> 00:54:17,119
this style. But maybe it's also SEC teams getting enough

1082
00:54:17,119 --> 00:54:19,679
tape on this stuff and saying, Okay, here's how we

1083
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:22,719
attack these guys. Saint Mary's doesn't necessarily have that, so

1084
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:25,880
their style is unique to Saint Mary's as well. All

1085
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:29,199
that being said, I wait the Saint Mary's style as

1086
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:33,199
being more effective offensively against the defense of Texas A

1087
00:54:33,239 --> 00:54:35,480
and M. I wait the Saint Mary's style being more

1088
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:38,320
effective and frustrating Texas A and M more than what

1089
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:41,760
Texas A and M does to frustrate Saint Mary's. But

1090
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:45,079
the real clincher for me, Adam is this year, Saint

1091
00:54:45,119 --> 00:54:48,039
Mary's rebounds the ball so well. I don't know that

1092
00:54:48,079 --> 00:54:49,199
A and M is going to get a lot of

1093
00:54:49,199 --> 00:54:52,079
second chances at shots in this game. Saint Mary's is

1094
00:54:52,079 --> 00:54:56,280
an elite elite rebounding team, and we can't just brush

1095
00:54:56,320 --> 00:55:01,159
off the WCC anymore. I mean usually so Saint Mary's Gonzaga,

1096
00:55:01,159 --> 00:55:03,079
Saint Mary's Gonzaga. But guess who else is in the

1097
00:55:03,159 --> 00:55:06,360
DAN Santa Clara this year. It's a better basketball league

1098
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:08,199
and it's been in the past. I kind of put

1099
00:55:09,159 --> 00:55:14,079
extra stock into Saint Mary's rebounding numbers. Randy Bennett is

1100
00:55:14,119 --> 00:55:18,320
a tested tournament coach. The other side has Bucky McMillan,

1101
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:21,119
and my estimation, good coach, good system, but just not

1102
00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:23,440
the same. I don't like the way A and M

1103
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:26,719
closed the season. I like the way Saint Mary's came

1104
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:29,239
back and beat Gonzaga in that second meeting when they

1105
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:32,159
had to. I like Saint Mary's here to win by

1106
00:55:32,199 --> 00:55:34,760
at least four, So I'm gonna lay the three as

1107
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:36,920
a parlay leg here. Saint Mary's minus three over A

1108
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:40,920
and M. Game also is played in Oklahoma City, which

1109
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:43,000
could favor Some would say, hey, listen, A and M

1110
00:55:43,079 --> 00:55:45,480
is gonna have more fans. But I just don't see

1111
00:55:45,519 --> 00:55:48,199
Saint Mary's adam as a team that gets rattled by venue,

1112
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,239
and I don't think they're ever rattled. So they've got

1113
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:52,679
enough shooting they've got enough rebounding. They've got a style

1114
00:55:53,119 --> 00:55:55,679
to me that works and adds up to a four

1115
00:55:55,679 --> 00:55:56,199
point one.

1116
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:00,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and those if you like Saint Mary's, I would

1117
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:03,920
probably grab it now those three. There are still plenty

1118
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:05,719
of threes out there, but I do see a couple

1119
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:07,840
of places going to three and a half.

1120
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 3: On that one, we're gonna use what we'll use three

1121
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:11,119
for the parlay.

1122
00:56:11,159 --> 00:56:13,760
Speaker 1: I may you know, I'm actually not even gonna attach

1123
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:16,360
juice because there's still plenty of threes. But I do

1124
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:20,199
see some books moving toward three and a half. So

1125
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,320
just to note there, I rob So here's I'm just

1126
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:25,400
gonna go back to our last segment for a second.

1127
00:56:25,679 --> 00:56:27,519
If you want, if you want to be the guy

1128
00:56:27,559 --> 00:56:31,320
that's like, I need straight up carnage, I need big upsets,

1129
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:33,320
and I want to I want to go different from

1130
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:34,320
everyone in Survivor.

1131
00:56:34,559 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 3: I think the way to do that is Saint Mary's.

1132
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 1: I think Saint Mary's for me is the is probably

1133
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:44,599
the strongest, small, like short favorite on the board. I

1134
00:56:44,599 --> 00:56:47,360
don't think you should be taking an underdog ever in Survivor.

1135
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,400
So let's put it that way. You should never you

1136
00:56:49,639 --> 00:56:51,639
should be able to map up your map out your

1137
00:56:51,639 --> 00:56:54,760
survivor where you're never on an underdog, and so if

1138
00:56:55,039 --> 00:56:57,239
you don't want to burn, like a lot of people

1139
00:56:57,280 --> 00:57:00,000
are gonna use Nebraska, a lot of people probably use

1140
00:57:00,199 --> 00:57:01,760
Vandy because I think people have.

1141
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:02,840
Speaker 3: The same thought process.

1142
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:05,400
Speaker 1: Illinois is a good option, that's, you know, but if

1143
00:57:05,559 --> 00:57:07,960
it's the safer option, you're not gonna you'd be burning

1144
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:11,400
a team that could make it pretty far. I think

1145
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:14,239
Saint Mary's is like the good sort of like I'm

1146
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:18,400
gonna zig when everyone else zags type survivor entry and Rob,

1147
00:57:18,440 --> 00:57:20,719
I'm with you. This is one that's kind of I've

1148
00:57:20,719 --> 00:57:23,320
been kind of looking at it all week, thinking along

1149
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:25,239
the lines that you were thinking, where it's a you know,

1150
00:57:25,639 --> 00:57:29,519
great stylistic matchup for Saint Mary's. I trust Randy Bennett

1151
00:57:29,519 --> 00:57:33,400
in this spot against you know, to to putting a

1152
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:36,239
game plan together that's going to neutralize Texas A and

1153
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:38,480
M and the Bucky ball sort of style.

1154
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:40,159
Speaker 3: So I can't disagree with you here.

1155
00:57:40,159 --> 00:57:43,079
Speaker 1: I think you made really good points and I could

1156
00:57:43,119 --> 00:57:45,599
only jump on that bet with you on Saint Mary's.

1157
00:57:45,719 --> 00:57:47,760
And again, I think if you're just again to hammer

1158
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,840
the point home because people are doing survivors for me,

1159
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:52,719
this would be the this would this would be the

1160
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:56,599
non double digit favorite Survivor pick today Saint Mary's to

1161
00:57:56,679 --> 00:57:59,039
win in Survivor because I don't think this team's making

1162
00:57:59,599 --> 00:58:02,119
a crazy run this year, but I do think they

1163
00:58:02,119 --> 00:58:04,000
gave him a very nice first round matchup.

1164
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:09,360
Speaker 3: So my question to you, Rob is do.

1165
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:11,159
Speaker 1: You want to leave it a two teamer or should

1166
00:58:11,199 --> 00:58:13,119
we agree on a leg and get crazy.

1167
00:58:13,159 --> 00:58:13,800
Speaker 3: It's up to you.

1168
00:58:14,159 --> 00:58:16,840
Speaker 1: We hit it two listen, we string together a couple

1169
00:58:16,880 --> 00:58:19,159
two team parlay wins, We're going to be back in

1170
00:58:19,159 --> 00:58:22,760
the mix, and you know it's your call. Do you

1171
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:24,400
want to try to agree on it? We got to

1172
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:25,639
decide in the next minute.

1173
00:58:26,079 --> 00:58:27,519
Speaker 3: You know one out there. I'll let you know if

1174
00:58:27,559 --> 00:58:28,000
I agree.

1175
00:58:28,719 --> 00:58:30,840
Speaker 2: Let me say this to you really quick. For those

1176
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:32,360
who don't know, I'll be on a plane to Las

1177
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:34,400
Vegas tonight. I won't be on the show tomorrow with

1178
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:37,599
Adam and it'll have a different guest, but Adam, I'll

1179
00:58:37,639 --> 00:58:41,599
send in picks for the parlay while I'm on the road,

1180
00:58:42,039 --> 00:58:44,039
So with different guests tomorrow. If you want to go

1181
00:58:44,119 --> 00:58:47,679
three team tomorrow, yeah, let's do that tomorrow with your

1182
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,480
guest and my pick from Afar I'll be in Las

1183
00:58:50,599 --> 00:58:52,119
Vegas in the madness.

1184
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:55,039
Speaker 3: Yeah, I probably should have brought that up.

1185
00:58:55,079 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 2: All.

1186
00:58:55,519 --> 00:58:57,679
Speaker 1: That's awesome that you're getting out to Vegas for that.

1187
00:58:57,960 --> 00:59:00,480
Matt Winnick is going to fill in for you tomor so.

1188
00:59:00,559 --> 00:59:03,519
He was with me over Thanksgiving break when you were out.

1189
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:07,599
He's awesome, tremendous basketball mind. So so looking forward to

1190
00:59:07,639 --> 00:59:09,719
having him on tomorrow. And yeah, we'll do that. We'll

1191
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,440
make it a three team or tomorrow with me, you

1192
00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:15,159
and then of course Matt Winnick the co host for

1193
00:59:15,199 --> 00:59:18,280
tomorrow's show. And so for today, let's just keep it

1194
00:59:18,320 --> 00:59:19,880
a two teamers see if we can go back to

1195
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:23,559
back two team wins on the parlay BYU on the

1196
00:59:23,559 --> 00:59:27,159
money line. Saint Mary's minus three BYU is one of

1197
00:59:27,199 --> 00:59:30,639
my four client plays today. I'm probably gonna add I

1198
00:59:30,679 --> 00:59:32,880
may at at least one more. I love the slate

1199
00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:35,000
today and I've got four locked in. One of those

1200
00:59:35,079 --> 00:59:37,920
is BYU. You can get all of them and everything

1201
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,719
Rob has for today on the double. The Firepower CBB

1202
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:42,920
package that's up on both of our pages. If you

1203
00:59:43,039 --> 00:59:45,719
email in the customer support, they'll give you a discount

1204
00:59:45,719 --> 00:59:49,360
to have that essentially through I like to say through

1205
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:52,960
one shining moment, Rob, because you know that is the

1206
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:55,320
official end of the college basketball season. The nets are

1207
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:58,079
cut down, it's well passed midnight on the East Coast,

1208
00:59:58,199 --> 01:00:01,000
and you're waiting for them to play that same dumb song.

1209
01:00:01,239 --> 01:00:04,719
They got rid of the everything good about like you know,

1210
01:00:05,599 --> 01:00:08,880
courts and like you know they sterilize like the look

1211
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:10,719
of March madness, But we still have to listen to

1212
01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:11,280
that song.

1213
01:00:11,639 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 3: They haven't changed the song.

1214
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:18,440
Speaker 1: So anyway, have a great day today, everyone, enjoy the games, Rob,

1215
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:20,199
and I'll be back in the morning for more full

1216
01:00:20,239 --> 01:00:22,119
court press and good luck to everyone.

1217
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 3: Stay safe. We'll see you guys in the morning.