Speaker 1: Dave, Happy New Year, Happy New Year, Mandy, welcome back
Speaker 1: is as well. You had got some time off and
Speaker 1: so did I.
Speaker 2: So it's nice, you know, and I loved every bit
Speaker 2: of every single bit of it. It was wonderful. But
Speaker 2: I came back from Ohio where it was also quite nice.
Speaker 2: It was the weather was not bad there until like
Speaker 2: the last we Okay, Dave, this was kind of cool.
Speaker 1: Can I just have like a.
Speaker 2: Weather like a nerdy weather moment with you for a moment.
Speaker 2: So we're driving back from northeast or northwest Ohio, right,
Speaker 2: So we get in the car and it's like nine
Speaker 2: o'clock in the morning and it's like sixty degrees. So
Speaker 2: between where we ended up stopping on the west side
Speaker 2: of Kansas City, No, we went beyond that. We went
Speaker 2: to Manhattan, Kansas. So we drove to Manhattan, Kansas. We
Speaker 2: drove to a cold front, so we stopped to eat.
Speaker 2: We go in the restaurant, it's like sixty five degrees.
Speaker 2: We come out of the restaurant, it's like thirty five degrees.
Speaker 2: I love that kind of stuff.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fantastic. You know, we see those.
Speaker 1: Temperature swings that drops here as well. But in the Midwest.
Speaker 1: Sometimes that can be an ugly transition there because it
Speaker 1: can be in ice and snow, especially if you're on
Speaker 1: the roads traveling. That's never fun. I had to drive
Speaker 1: one time. We've had the same thing. We left here
Speaker 1: and everything was fine. We were chasing the back end
Speaker 1: of a blizzard and I tried to time it out
Speaker 1: as we were heading from here through Des Moines and
Speaker 1: towards Milwaukee, and I tried to time it out that
Speaker 1: we would stay on the back edge of the blizzard.
Speaker 1: I got a little too aggressive in the driving and.
Speaker 3: Got into the back edge of it, and boy, what
Speaker 3: the difference it makes.
Speaker 1: It was so bad.
Speaker 3: I had to stop for gas.
Speaker 1: It was so cold, so windy, snow was sideways. My
Speaker 1: debit card got stuck in.
Speaker 3: The gas because it was frozen.
Speaker 1: I had to get the guy to shut the pump
Speaker 1: off of my damn card back out. So I love that.
Speaker 2: My first weather experience like that was I was laying
Speaker 2: over in Minneapolis, Minnesota, as a matter of fact, and
Speaker 2: we walked to the restaurant from the hotel. It was
Speaker 2: like a two mile walk, No big deal, right, you know.
Speaker 2: We walked down there, we eat, we come out it
Speaker 2: was seventy degrees. I had on shorts, it was snowing.
Speaker 2: So in the two and a half hours we were
Speaker 2: in there, like it's just it was crazy. But anyway,
Speaker 2: I do have questions about our actual weather tomorrow. So
Speaker 2: what are we really looking at. Let's start with the
Speaker 2: stalk show first of all, goes off at noon. Are
Speaker 2: they going to be able to get that done before
Speaker 2: they have to deal with foul weather?
Speaker 1: You're talking the parade down. Yeah, yes, I do think
Speaker 1: they'll get it off. They have dealt with weather in
Speaker 1: the past when it deals with cold and snow.
Speaker 3: Right now, there's a lot.
Speaker 1: Of questions that still need to be answered, generally at
Speaker 1: this time frame. You know, we're within the twelve to
Speaker 1: eighteen hours of this event starting. We'd like more details finalized,
Speaker 1: but we're still working out some final details. Here's the
Speaker 1: bottom line. It's going to snow, and it's going to
Speaker 1: turn colder. It's going to drop tomorrow into the upper
Speaker 1: thirties and then slowly drop the low freezing late tomorrow afternoon. Thursdays,
Speaker 1: Friday's high will only be around thirty three thirty four.
Speaker 1: Overnight lows will be in the teams in twenties, so
Speaker 1: we've got the cold component, we've got enough moist that
Speaker 1: we will get snow. Always in these situations, the questions
Speaker 1: becomes the how much, and it's the how much that
Speaker 1: we're still struggling with a little bit as computer models
Speaker 1: range widely, and it has to do with the windflow
Speaker 1: that you and I talk about all the time. For
Speaker 1: the stock show parade, I do think there could be
Speaker 1: some light snowshowers around. My forecast right now, just finalizing
Speaker 1: it is. I do think we'll have some light snow
Speaker 1: in the morning, and then there could be a low
Speaker 1: for many hours in the afternoon before things kick back
Speaker 1: in around four o'clock. So with the stock show parade,
Speaker 1: I think it could be cold and there could be
Speaker 1: some flurries of light snowshowers, but I don't think they're
Speaker 1: going to be in the brunt of the snow.
Speaker 3: I think that happens after four.
Speaker 1: O'clock tomorrow afternoon and then continues till about two to
Speaker 1: four in the morning, so about a twelve hour e bend.
Speaker 1: And it's that duration if we can sustain the right
Speaker 1: wind direction that will give us our snow totals, which
Speaker 1: we think right now may you're about one to four
Speaker 1: typical upslope one as you go up towards Fort Collins,
Speaker 1: two swards Lovelands, threes and fourth that you come into Denver.
Speaker 1: And then the heaviest totals will be south and west
Speaker 1: of I seventy, where we see those favored numbers get
Speaker 1: a little deeper.
Speaker 2: So basically, this texter said, Mandy Weather, I'm traveling by
Speaker 2: car west on I seventy from Denver Friday. And now
Speaker 2: Dan and I kids just updated, so they basically they're asking,
Speaker 2: so Friday, you should have what snow on the roads.
Speaker 3: But no snow to deal with exactly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just going to depend. This storm should lift
Speaker 1: out very early Friday morning, leaving us with little snow
Speaker 1: to deal with after about eight to ten. And that
Speaker 1: includes the mountains. But it will come down to what
Speaker 1: do the roads look like? What does it look like
Speaker 1: getting up Floyd Hill and into the mountains. Are there
Speaker 1: any pass considerations veil pass and stuff like that. So
Speaker 1: if you're driving from Denver and heading west, I would say.
Speaker 3: You're you're okay, but just be prepared.
Speaker 1: For any you know, road condition that may have deteriorated
Speaker 1: the night before.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the bigger weather picture over the next
Speaker 2: six weeks. I know, you guys always look out. It's
Speaker 2: it's very imprecise science at this point. But we've had
Speaker 2: such a dry fall, we're well below snowpack. Are we
Speaker 2: looking to make Is there anything on the you know,
Speaker 2: on the horizon that is going to change that for us?
Speaker 3: So you know that that has been a concern.
Speaker 1: You know. It's interesting the calendar year twenty twenty five
Speaker 1: actually ended up right where it should be for moisture.
Speaker 1: And what that tells me is it.
Speaker 3: Was short for snow for the early snow months that we've.
Speaker 1: Had, so September, October, November, December, December, Mandy actually came
Speaker 1: out right on track. And what people may forget is
Speaker 1: that on the third of December we had a four
Speaker 1: point three snow in snowstorm, and then on the twenty
Speaker 1: eighth we had another two point three for six point
Speaker 1: sixth total, which is the average for the month of December.
Speaker 3: So December actually ended up okay, and for the entire.
Speaker 1: Year we ended up right where we should be for moisture.
Speaker 1: What that tells me is that while we were lacking
Speaker 1: in snow, we made up for the moisture in the
Speaker 1: calendar year because of a wet spring and periodic rains
Speaker 1: over the summer. And if you'll remember our conversations going
Speaker 1: back to September, and you know, everything's still being green
Speaker 1: and the fall was looking in October, and should we
Speaker 1: blow the sprinklers out because it's dry and everything still
Speaker 1: looks lush. That had to do with all that early
Speaker 1: season moisture that kept us looking pretty good. Where we
Speaker 1: are lacking is snow. The snowpack is only at about
Speaker 1: sixty percent fots. And I always like to listen, we
Speaker 1: still got all of January, all of February and marching
Speaker 1: April our snow is month. And so for the snowpack
Speaker 1: and our snow concerns, we load now. We want to
Speaker 1: load as much snow as we can up through about
Speaker 1: April seventh, and then after that we start to melt
Speaker 1: the snow, and that's our water supply and reservoirs, so
Speaker 1: we've got time to make up.
Speaker 3: For the shortfalls.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't give up on the season this year, this early.
Speaker 1: I'm going to say this.
Speaker 2: The ski resorts have been having a terrible time because
Speaker 2: there's the lack of snow. Are they going to get
Speaker 2: a good guy. Are they going to get a soaking here.
Speaker 1: With this storm? Yes, yeah, this will be good. The
Speaker 1: last one they got there was if you were following
Speaker 1: any of the resorts like Loveland and Aspmen, Snowmass and
Speaker 1: all those guys, they were rejoicing in the last snow.
Speaker 1: They got really deep fresh powder of eight to ten
Speaker 1: inches some places. We're twelve thirteen. They'll get similar totals here.
Speaker 1: We're looking at a good eight to twelve inches in
Speaker 1: the mountain, So great for them. Should help with the snowpack.
Speaker 3: Overall, this is a.
Speaker 1: Good storm moisture equivalent. I will tell you this that
Speaker 1: the month of January, our total moisture is around four
Speaker 1: tenths of an inch. This storm coming in has the
Speaker 1: ability to deliver about a quarter of an inch, maybe
Speaker 1: a little more, and that obviously equates to two to
Speaker 1: four to two to five to maybe two to six
Speaker 1: inches on the south side of town that would be here.
Speaker 3: You know, we're what eight days into the.
Speaker 1: Month, nine days into the month, almost a whole month's moisture.
Speaker 1: So again, you know, you look at the bigger picture,
Speaker 1: you think December was the second Warmistan record. It's long, long,
Speaker 1: stretches of dry and warm and windy conditions, but then
Speaker 1: you sprinkle in these decent snowstorms and when you average
Speaker 1: it out at the end of the month, it actually
Speaker 1: doesn't look that bad on paper.
Speaker 3: It's just that we go through these long stretches. And
Speaker 3: by the way, this is exactly where we were last year.
Speaker 1: This is a classic Laminia pattern where we get these long, dry,
Speaker 1: windy stretches, fire concerns get elevated, and then all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, banged, you get hit with a storm. Those
Speaker 1: concerns go away for several days, and then you get
Speaker 1: back into that pattern. And I do think that's what
Speaker 1: we'll see following this event. Thursday Fridays, we go back
Speaker 1: to warm and dry.
Speaker 2: From your lips for God's ears. Dave Frasier Fox thirty
Speaker 2: one is chief Meteorologist's good to talk to you, my friend,
Speaker 2: and I'm looking forward to another exciting year of weather Wednesday.
Speaker 1: And so am I and a Rod get better and
Speaker 1: everybody else stay healthy because that cred.
Speaker 3: Going around too, and it is not fun.
Speaker 2: You know, it is not. You need to. I could
Speaker 2: have given you my witchcraft tips that I got from
Speaker 2: natural grocers. It worked, man, It works. So all right man,
Speaker 2: I'll talk to you next week. That Stave Frasier. We'll
Speaker 2: be right back