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Speaker 1: Hi everybody, and welcome to the Kylie Cast. I'm Kylie Griswold,

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Managing editor at The Federalist. Please like and subscribe wherever

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Leave us a five star review. It is truly one

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to the show, go check out the full video version

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you'd like to email the show, you can do so

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at radio at the Federalist dot com. I would love

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to hear from you today. I'm so pleased to welcome

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to the show my colleague and a senior editor at

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The Federalist, John Daniel Davidson. Today John and I tackle

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the war in Iran, so whether you are really confused

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by the Trump administration's messaging, or you know exactly what

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you think and you have a fully formed opinion, or

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you're still trying to figure out what exactly you think

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about the war. You are in the right place, John

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and I take the war, the messaging, all of it

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head on. It's an episode you will not want to miss.

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Send it to a friend, save it for later. Without

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further ado, Please welcome to the show, John Davidson. John Davidson,

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so great to have you on the Kylie Cast. Thanks

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for being here today.

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Speaker 2: Hey, thanks for having me Kylie.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, anytime. So we are now in a war with Iran.

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Came out of nowhere over the weekend. Also, we're recording

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this on Tuesday, and the news is moving quickly, so

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we'll keep that in mind as we go. Things may

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change before this podcast is released, but I suspect that

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we will still very much be at war with Iran

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come Thursday. So, John, can I get just your initial

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reaction to the war and kind of how you're feeling

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in the days since the weekend when this all launched.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, like a lot of people, I was surprised.

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I was surprised because there had been no effort to

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prepare the American people for this. We just had the

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State of the Union last week on Tuesday, and there

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was no real mention of impending war plans with Iran,

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no talk of a regime change war in the Middle East,

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which you know, we should be clear that this is

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a regime change war. Whatever the administration says, however, they

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want to kind of parse the language here. From the

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moment that they took out the Supreme Leader, I had

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told a Kamani on February twenty eighth it was a

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regime change war. And then today the news is that

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they took out this other group of iranianly that had

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gathered to elect for the first time actually elect the

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next leader of Iran. All those people were taken out

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as well, so, you know, So to answer your question,

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I was surprised because there had been no communication with

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the American people. There had been no effort by the

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administration to get Congress on board or to solicit input

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from Congress. It seemed to have come out of nowhere.

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And I think, you know, based on what we're seeing now,

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the kind of the information that's coming out and the

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things that the Trump administration is saying, specifically thinking of

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remarks that Marco Rubio and Speaker Mike Johnson made on

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Monday that Israel was planning to take unilateral action and

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that would mean that the Iranian response would target US

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assets in the Middle East. So we just had to

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go ahead and go with Israel. You know, I think

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it's fair to say that we may have been sort

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of led by the nose into this war, and that's

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why there was so little preparation done on the part

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of the administration to kind of sell this to the

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American people, make the case that we have to strike

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Iran now, and also very little in the way of preparing,

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you know, evacuations for Americans who are now in many

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cases trapped in these Middle Eastern countries at our embassies,

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at our military bases, also just you know, civilians who

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are in these countries for business or whatever. I think.

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President Trump was asked about the lack of evacuation plans

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today in the White House in his meeting with the

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German Chancellor, and his response was very telling. He said, effectively,

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there was no time. This all happened very quickly, so

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that doesn't like, I don't know that doesn't inspire confidence

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in me when I feel like the whole thing was

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kind of rushed, and it makes it like it was

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foisted upon us by Israel, by our ally who had

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their own set of strategic comparatives, who had their own agenda,

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and frankly, most of the things that the administration has

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said over the past forty eight hours on this subject

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haven't inspired a lot of confidence in me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. I want to dig into the

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being led by the nose aspect of this, because the

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Israel component is obviously a huge one. We're finally getting

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what seems like the real reason for why we had

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to get involved in this right away, which I mean

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maybe days ago would have been considered by some on

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Twitter who have been responding very rashly to this as

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an anti Semitic conspiracy theory, but now, oh, it's actually

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appears to be quite clearly the reason why we got involved.

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You wrote a great piece that's up on the Federalist

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this week where you use the term chain ganged, that

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the US was chain ganged into this war. Can you

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explain what exactly you mean by that, and maybe I

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can kind of tee it up with this quote from

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a New York Times piece that ran on Monday, this

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is the lead of the peace quote. Prime Minister Benjamin

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Netanyahoo of Israel walked into the Oval Office on the

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morning of February eleventh, determined to keep the American president

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on the path to war. For weeks, the United States

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and Israel had been secretly discussing a military offensive against Iran,

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but Trump administration officials had recently begun negotiating with the

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Iranians over the future of their nuclear program, and the

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Israeli leader wanted to make sure that the new diplomatic

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effort did not undermine the plans. Those plans being plans

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to go to war. So obviously, anything we see from

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the New York Times we should take with a grain

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of salt. And as when we saw this on Monday,

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I did take it with a grain of salt, because

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it came from the Times, which cannot be trusted to

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report the truth accurately. And I mean, these are the

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people who wrote just a glowing oh bit for the Ayatola.

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And yet then a day or two later we heard

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directly from the horse's mouth, so to speak, Rubio out

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there and Mike Johnson out there, basically saying the exact

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same thing, that, oh, we had to take this action

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because Israel's going to take this action. Can you explain

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this concept of chain ganging and kind of how how

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did this happen?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Right, Yeah, it was actually the same day it was.

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It was later in the day that New York Times

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piece came out on Monday morning, and later in the

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day on Mondays when Rubio gave his remarks, and then

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I believe Speaker Johnson gave similar remarks, and then either

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last night or this morning, I don't know because I

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don't know when what time of day Sean Hannity's show

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is on because I'm not a boomer con and I

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don't watch, but I saw the clip on X and

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Senator Tom Cotton basically said the same thing, you know,

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And then we had we had President Trump in the

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Oval Office today making similar remarks. So this has now

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been repeated several times, very similar language about Israel going

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to take unilateral action against Iran and then US knowing

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that we that our basis would be targeted in the

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Iranian response, and that being something that pushed pushed events forward. Essentially,

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that's not a radical thing to say. That's not a

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misinterpretation of what Rubio said. And by the way, that

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doesn't mean that it was the wrong decision to go

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to war. It doesn't mean that President Trump and his

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administration won't be able to pull this off successfully. Doesn't

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mean any of those things. We're being descriptive here. We're

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trying to say, why did we do this? Now? What

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were the events that happened that triggered this seemingly sudden

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launching of a regime change war against Iran over the weekend.

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And so to your question about what chain ganging is

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or what it means to be chain gang, this is

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a term of art in international security studies that refers

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to the power dynamics between a stronger ally and a

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weaker ally, where the weaker ally has security commitments and

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strategic compare arratives that do not align with the interests

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of the stronger ally. And this is something that you know,

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scholars of military history and international studies and war studies

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have actually kind of looked at and described in the

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past how this is, how this has worked out. I

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mentioned in my piece that a lot of scholars attribute

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a chain ganging effect to the outbreak of World War One,

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in Europe, that the European powers had such a complex

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web of alliances between them that smaller weaker powers like

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Serbia or even in that case Russia, that their actions

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compelled the actions of larger, stronger nations like France and Britain,

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essentially constraining them and in trapping them in a situation

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where they were, to use the term chain, ganged into

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a war that they may not otherwise have chosen. And

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so this is a phenomenon in internet international relations, in

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the power dynamics between coalitions, between allies and military partnerships,

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that it has a history. It's something that's been studied,

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and I applied it in this case because this is

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something that scholars have already looked at in the US

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Israel relationship Visa vi Iran and the article that I

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cited from a twenty eighteen Texas National Security Review piece

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about the twenty eleven twenty twelve dynamic between the US,

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Israel and Iran. This is when Iran was hardening its

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nuclear program and Israel under then Prime Minister Benjamin Netan

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yahoo came out essentially and threatened unilateral military action, created

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a war scare that the Obama administration had to respond to.

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And that was an example of when chain gang didn't

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work because the United States was not drawn into a

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war in that case. But it didn't totally fail either, right,

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because Israel was able to influence US POL toward Iran

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and actually get the Obama administration to do some things

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that it otherwise wouldn't have done. Now, again, you can

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argue that the Obama administration was wrong. I tend to

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think the Obama administration was wrong, and if we had

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been much tougher on Iran fifteen years ago, we wouldn't

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be in this position now. But the point is that

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the dynamic of a weaker ally in this case, Israel

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manipulating a stronger ally, the United States into doing things

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that the United States might not otherwise do if it

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were just pursuing its own national interests is a phenomenon

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in international relations, and I think it's one that we

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are seeing play out in this Iran war. And I

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say that not to throw stones at the Trump administration.

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I'm saying that because of what the Trump administration officials

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themselves are saying about how this.

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Speaker 1: Started, right, right, So, why in your estimation did it

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work in this case? I mean, why did we have

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to bend to to the desires of Israel? I understand

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that there are ally, but they are the weaker ally.

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You know, why couldn't you know if Trump and and

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Yahoo are in deliberations and BB basically says we're going

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to do this, so you know it's your embassies are

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going to be hit if you don't strike first. You know,

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why can't we leverage our being the weaker ally over

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Israel to say, well, if you do this, then we're gonna,

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you know, counter measure with this, Like if we knew

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about it ahead of time, why did we decide to

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strike instead of using our more powerful position over Israel

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to try to get something that was more favorable to us.

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Speaker 2: That's a good question, and I don't I don't necessarily

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have the answers because I don't it's very opaque kind

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of what was going on behind the scenes and how

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this process played out, And honestly, the boxed communications from

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the Trump administration have not contributed a ton of clarity

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to how this happened. I think one thing though, I

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do know that we know, which is that the Trump

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administration from the outset, and this was true in Trump's

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first term and it's true now has a very different

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approach to Iran and Mid East politics than the Obama

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administration or the Biden administration did. So, you know, in

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the first Trump administration, one of the first things that

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Trump did was get out of the JCPOA, the Iran

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nuclear deal, right, he ended that he withdrew the United

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States from that. He thought it was a bad deal.

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I think that was the right that was the right call.

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So from the outset, you have an administration that has

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a much more kind of aggressive posture towards Iran, has

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much less tolerance for Iran being a nuclear power or

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even being a regional hedgemon. Obama's whole idea for Iran

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going going into you know, from from Obama's first term,

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was that Iran should be the regional hedgemon in the

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Middle East and that would that would contribute to stability

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and order and predictability in that region. And this was

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sort of ben row wads Is, you know, and Obama's

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grand idea to revise what previously had been the US

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strategic posture towards Iran and the Middle East, which was

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that Iran as a pariah state, it's a hostile power,

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it's a revolutionary terrorist regime and it's not to be

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sort of encouraged in its regional hegemonic ambitions. Right. So

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from the outset in the Trump administration, you had a

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completely different posture towards Iran. So that is to say,

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the Trump administration and Trump himself was more disposed to

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go down this road than previous democratic administrations were. They

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were more inclined to accept that action. Kinetic action had

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to be taken. And we saw this in his first

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administration when he took out Sulimane, the IRGC general. We

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saw it last June in the Twelve Days War when

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we hit three nuclear sites, including the mountain fortress of

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four Dough underneath that mountain. And so there's already an

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appetite there to take kinetic action against Iran. And I

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think in this case the restraint that you might have

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otherwise seen in a different administration just just wasn't there.

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You know, maybe it was that Trump was just he

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just needed he just needed a reason to kind of

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be done with negotiations. He felt he's saying now that

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he felt that the negotiations were going nowhere. Maybe it

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was that, you know, Israel taking unilateral action, you know,

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convinced Trump that now is the time. You know, we

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just don't know. But but but what is true, what

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has been true in the past, is that for the

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most part, the United States has been able to avoid

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being chain ganged into military conflicts by weaker allies. All

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of our allies are weaker allies. We don't have any

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peer allies. So this dynamic that I'm talking about, where

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there's there's a danger of a stronger ally being manipulated

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into taking actions that otherwise wouldn't buy a weaker ally

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is something that we, as the United States, as the

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military superpower in the world for the last seventy years,

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have to deal with all the time with all of

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our allies, and we generally have been successful at that.

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In this case, it looks like maybe we weren't so successful,

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or that we were pushed into doing something, maybe not

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that we didn't want to do or that Trump didn't

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want to do, but that this wasn't the timeline on

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which she wanted to do it. And as I mentioned earlier,

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some of these indications like lack of communication, no evacuation plans,

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suggest that maybe this was the timeline on this was

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pushed up against us, and we were forced to kind

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of act in the moment.

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Speaker 1: Right, right, So, I mean you got into some of

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this in your answer, but do you think it was

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actions taken during the Biden administration that that is what

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mostly change things between Trump one and Trump two? I mean,

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because during Trump's first term he did reverse Obama era

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policies and pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal and

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kind of changing the focus from making Iran the you know,

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regional hedgemon to empowering Saudi Arabia to be that you know,

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in the Abraham Accords, and all of these things, like

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Trump's policy toward Iran seemed to be very effective in

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Trump's first term without starting any new wars, without you know,

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doing any of these things. And then, you know, even

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when we saw these strikes on Iran's nuclear sites in

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twenty twenty five, you know, we were assured everything was

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taken out, our objective was achieved. This mission was so successful,

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it's the most successful mission there ever was. And then

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fast forward less than a year later and oh now

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we're at war, like what you know, and maybe it

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is just the chain gang and that's happening here that

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we were kind of rushed into action that we weren't

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otherwise wanting to take. But it just seems to me that,

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you know, we actually did have a very successful policy

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in the Middle East during Trump's for which is why

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we saw this historic piece. You know what changed It's

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only been a few years, I mean, was the Biden administration.

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Did they so so help I Ran and their proxies

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in the Middle East that like this had to happen.

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Speaker 2: Now, well, a couple of things did change during the

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Biden administration. Obviously, you had October seventh, the Hamas attack

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on Israel in October seventh, twenty twenty three. That was

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that was an Iranian proxy attack, right. Iran was one

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of the main sponsors of Hamas, and this was the

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biggest action Hamas had ever taken, and it, you know,

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triggered a war that is going on still. Right in

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some ways, you can almost you can almost see this

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as one continuous war from Israel's perspective from October seventh

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to now. You also had during the Biden administration the

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arming and the missile attacks by the Huthi rebels in Yemen.

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These are Sheeite, you know, rebels that are armed with

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Iranian missiles. They launched missiles at Israel, they launched missiles

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at ships in the region, and that became a real

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problem during the Biden administration that these pro these Iranian

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proxies were emboldened, they were taking action, and so I

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think that changed the calculus somewhat. Certainly October seventh and

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certainly the Huthi sort of you know, missile attacks as well.

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And when Trump came into office, you know, that had

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kind of shifted the landscape in the Middle East. It

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certainly had shifted the strategic priorities for Israel, getting back

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to this question of chain ganging or entrapment. During the

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Biden administration, Israel's strategic priorities changed, and I think that

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there was a decision made. I'm I don't have any

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special insight, but I'm speculating that based on Israel's action

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since October seventh, that that that was the point at

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which Israeli leadership decided, we can't tolerate this Iranian regime

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any longer. This this we have to deal with this

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once and for all. It's too great of a risk

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to allow the Iranian regime to persist in its in

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its funding and arming of proxies in the region in

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its pursuit of nuclear weapons. And so you had you

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had the operation last June that where Israel and the

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United States took out most of the nuclear facilities. And

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then I think, but but, and here's where the communication

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part comes in. I don't think that that was ever

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going to be the end of it for Israel. And

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yet the Trump administration communicated to the American people to

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mollify I think at the Maga base that's very suspicious

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of regime change wars in the Middle East. No, this

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was just these were just perfect air strikes, perfectly and

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totally obliterated the nuclear program and one and done, you know,

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and you don't have to worry about a protracted engagement

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in Iran. We destroyed it. Everything was perfect. I think

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they overplayed their hand there because any reasonable person, you know,

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you and I were not necessarily like, you know, nuclear

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proliferation experts. But it doesn't take an expert to say,

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you said eight months ago that their nuclear program was obliterated,

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that it was that not just their facilities, but their capabilities,

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their enrichment facilities, the future of their program is destroyed.

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And they said that over and Trump said that over

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and over. He said it essentially every month up until

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a few weeks ago, was saying this about what about

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the operation last June. Well, then if you come in

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and then tell us, oh, Iran was only a couple

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months from from having immunity in its nuclear program because

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it was protected by all these short range ballistic missiles,

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I'm sorry. Someone in the administration has to address the

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disconnect there in the messaging from last June and all

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of last year to what they're saying now. And it's fine.

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Just tell me the truth. Just explain it in a

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way that makes sense. I am maga like I'm pro Trump.

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I want to support the president. I want our foreign

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policy to succeed. I think Iran was a malign actor.

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I think the regime was illegitimate. I think we should

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have taken action against their nuclear program a long time ago.

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But make it make sense, communicate in a way that

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doesn't insult my intelligence. I think that's all a lot

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of us are asking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the messaging has been the most infuriating

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part for people, because you know, before you had the

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Rubio admission, we heard numerous reasons rationales for the strike.

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It was regime change. It was freedom for the Iranian people.

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It was nukes even after you know, we were previously

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assured that Operation Midnight Hammer was such a wild success. Meanwhile,

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not even from the administration. But then you have Senate

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Republicans out here Ted Cruz saying he's not aware of

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any intel indicating that Iran was close to getting nukes again,

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at the same time that Tom Cotton is claiming that

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Iran has posed an imminent risk to the US for

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forty seven years. Make that make sense. Then you have

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Lindsey Graham, classic warmonger, you know, comparing Trump and net

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Yahoo to Roosevelt and Churchill. I mean, he's not even

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worth taking seriously in any way on this. And then

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you have the White House COM's team tweeting out and

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Our Review or National Review articles basically saying that Rubio

401
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did not say what he did say. And it's been

402
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kind of frustrating too, because you know, I have a

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lot of respect for Pete Hegseth and what he's doing

404
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at the Department of War, but I was frustrated by

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the press conference he game this week because it all

406
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seems so condescending to very reasonable questions that conservative media,

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00:23:44,839 --> 00:23:47,519
we're asking of him that are exactly the concerns that

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are on Americans minds. How long can we expect this

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to last? What are the risks? How many troops are

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we planning to send there, what's the manpower, what's the cost?

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I mean, these are like very reasonable accountability questions the

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American people who have been burned by decades of war

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in the Middle East have and the response from the

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administration has been either confusing, contradictory, or condescending kind of

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at every step of the way. And that's been really frustrating,

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I think for most of the people watching.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, did you not hear my remarks? Yeah, I did

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hear your remarks, and your remarks are the problem. That's

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where the confusions coming in. Secretary hegseeth, we did hear

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your remarks. We've all heard what the administration has been saying,

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and you know, and again, you know, so much of

422
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this is speculation now, but it seems like it seems

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like Trump is he he you know, because of Trump's

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ego and because of his personality, he is not going

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to want anyone to say that he was forced into

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anything that he was, you know, led to act before

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he was prepared to act, or that he was not

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the initiator, So any suggestions, you know, So even if

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it is the case that he was, you know, his

430
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hand was somewhat forced. Even if it is the case

431
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that the timeline was pushed up and we we were

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responding to Israeli actions, and that's what that's why this

433
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war started when it did. I don't think Trump is

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going to allow that narrative to take root because it's

435
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going to make him look weak. And so, for better

436
00:25:28,839 --> 00:25:31,759
or for worse, I think that he is trying to

437
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take ownership of the initiative here and say no, if anything,

438
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And he said earlier today in this in this White

439
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House appearance with the German Chancellor, in response to a question,

440
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he said, no, if anything, I forced Israel's hand. Okay,

441
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,680
that doesn't make sense based on what everyone else in

442
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the administration is saying. It also doesn't make sense based

443
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on how this is playing out.

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Speaker 1: But also does it make sense based on what Trump said,

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because you know, his reason and for not evacuating people

446
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ahead of time was that, oh, this all happened so quickly. Well,

447
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if you were the one calling the shots, it wouldn't

448
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have happened too quickly for you to evacuate Americans.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, yeah, exactly, you know. And and maybe that's

450
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just how it's going to be, and that Trump is

451
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going to want to take ownership of this and and

452
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this is the new, consistent, unwavering line from the administration.

453
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Fine that that that's fine, But my concern about it

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is that if we need to be honest with ourselves

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about what an America First policy means when it comes

456
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to our foreign policy, and I don't think that it's

457
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an America first foreign policy to be forced into major

458
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armed conflicts in the Middle East outside of a timeline

459
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of our choosing, in a manner of our choosing, and

460
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in a way where we are totally prepared and the

461
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,519
administration is prepared to explain what it is that they're

462
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doing to the American people in a way that makes sense. Uh.

463
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And I actually think that the botched communications around this

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may become a problem, has the potential to become a

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real problem for the administration going forward if they can't

466
00:27:10,799 --> 00:27:16,640
figure out how to communicate in a way that is consistent,

467
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makes sense and you know, sort of gives some some

468
00:27:22,839 --> 00:27:26,759
dignity to the average intelligence of the American voter or

469
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the Maga Republican right. Don't insult our intelligence and condescend

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to us the way Secretary Hegseth was doing in his

471
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press conference. Just answer the questions truthfully, answer them consistently,

472
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give us responses that make sense. Don't torture the English

473
00:27:43,599 --> 00:27:46,680
language by saying that Iran has been an imminent threat

474
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:51,359
for forty seven years. That is that is George W.

475
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Bush neo con stuff. I have no patience for that

476
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,720
kind of that kind of thing, and I think that

477
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,799
people are understandably frustrated by it, so that you know,

478
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they have a chance to kind of write the ship here,

479
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,759
but they need to do it quickly. And they also

480
00:28:06,839 --> 00:28:11,079
need to make sure and assure a nervous American public

481
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,000
that this isn't going to be something that drags on

482
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,839
and on for months or years that involves hundreds of

483
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:22,759
billions of US tax dollars and a whole constellation of

484
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:24,839
NGOs that we have to send in there to kind

485
00:28:24,839 --> 00:28:28,519
of reconstruct the country. That is not what we've signed

486
00:28:28,599 --> 00:28:31,200
up for. And frankly, some of the other things that

487
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,319
the President has said about the Iranian people just kind

488
00:28:33,319 --> 00:28:37,640
of rising up and taking over are completely divorced. I'm sorry,

489
00:28:38,119 --> 00:28:41,960
completely divorced from reality. That is not how regime change happens.

490
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,440
That is not how revolutions happen. That people don't just

491
00:28:44,559 --> 00:28:48,920
rise up in sort of a peasant's revolt. So they

492
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:50,920
need to stop saying things like that. I'm sorry, it's

493
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,039
just it's very frustrated.

494
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:03,519
Speaker 3: College under employment is at crisis levels. Almost half of

495
00:29:03,599 --> 00:29:06,680
recent college grads are working in jobs that do not

496
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,359
require a college degree. We have not seen numbers like

497
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,000
these since when two thousand and eight. Check out The

498
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,279
Watchdog on Wall Street podcasts on Apple, Spotify, wherever you

499
00:29:16,319 --> 00:29:17,319
get your podcasts.

500
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, you brought up George W.

501
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 2: Bush.

502
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: So let's talk a little bit about some of the

503
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:29,640
some of the analogs here. So we talked about October

504
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:31,759
seventh a little while ago, and I think it's safe

505
00:29:31,759 --> 00:29:33,640
to say, you know, Trump gets a lot of credit

506
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,759
for his efforts during his first presidency and even many

507
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,880
during the second. Here, I think it's safe to say

508
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,200
that like October seventh wouldn't have happened if Biden were

509
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,160
not in office like we had. We had a lot

510
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,880
of foreign policy successes during Trump's first term that I

511
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,039
think we're so weakened that there was we were not

512
00:29:51,119 --> 00:29:53,279
only were we funding both sides of that conflict and

513
00:29:53,319 --> 00:29:57,880
you know, like enabling and emboldening Iran during during October seventh,

514
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,720
but but you also just had like no Threa whatsoever

515
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,559
from the United States during that period because we were

516
00:30:02,559 --> 00:30:03,160
sell And it was.

517
00:30:03,079 --> 00:30:07,039
Speaker 2: The funding too. It was that the Biden administration released

518
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,720
huge amounts of funding to the Iranian regime and a

519
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,400
lot of a lot of those funds went straight to Hamas.

520
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, So you know Trump gets a lot of

521
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:17,559
credit in that regard, Like if he had won in

522
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,160
twenty twenty that you know, October seventh may never have

523
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:21,920
happened and we may never be in this position. So

524
00:30:22,559 --> 00:30:25,799
you know, of course he's being forced to react to

525
00:30:25,839 --> 00:30:28,160
things that we're not. We're not his fault here, But

526
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,119
that said, you know, does Trump get the benefit of

527
00:30:31,119 --> 00:30:34,799
the doubt here? Like I I obviously lived through much

528
00:30:34,839 --> 00:30:37,039
of the War on Terror and just the the war

529
00:30:37,079 --> 00:30:39,839
in Afghanistan troops over there, but I was not you know,

530
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,640
politically sentient, shall I say, during the WMD lies and

531
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,119
all of that, Like I don't have like personal firsthand

532
00:30:47,119 --> 00:30:51,519
knowledge of all of that. Are are the excuses from

533
00:30:51,519 --> 00:30:56,160
the White House recalling those types of things, like is

534
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,720
this completely different from that? Is it the same? Another

535
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:00,799
another line I've heard from the White House is like,

536
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,480
you know, Iran is not Iraq, that this is not

537
00:31:03,519 --> 00:31:06,319
the same, Okay, but it's also not Venezuela, And like

538
00:31:07,319 --> 00:31:11,119
the Middle East? Is this idea that this is completely

539
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,519
different from Iraq, that we can just we can just

540
00:31:13,759 --> 00:31:16,880
waltz in, do regime change, get rid of their nukes,

541
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,119
and walk out and everybody can just be unscathed and

542
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,039
fine in a week or a month's time. Just seems

543
00:31:22,079 --> 00:31:25,920
to be so divorced from reality to me, And I

544
00:31:26,119 --> 00:31:30,160
just I'm curious, like, is Trump going full George W.

545
00:31:30,279 --> 00:31:32,039
Bush here or does he get the benefit of the

546
00:31:32,079 --> 00:31:32,519
doubt on this?

547
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 2: Like what are we looking at? So what happened with

548
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:40,839
George W. Bush in the first Iraq War? Gather around children,

549
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,039
I will tell you of the before times. I was

550
00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:46,200
in college at the time, and I was I was

551
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,200
pretty dumb, so you know, it's not like I had

552
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:54,079
a great beat on things at the time. The Bush

553
00:31:54,119 --> 00:31:57,799
administration put forth this huge effort to make a case

554
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,400
not just to the American people, but on the world stage.

555
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,599
Right at the u N. Cole and Powell presenting this,

556
00:32:04,759 --> 00:32:07,759
you know, to the United Nations, the evidence of weapons

557
00:32:07,799 --> 00:32:11,480
of mass destruction of Saddam Hussein's regime. There was a

558
00:32:11,599 --> 00:32:13,759
there was a big push to sort of make this

559
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:18,720
Cassis belly that Iraq had WMDs and that after nine

560
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:24,960
to eleven a rogue terror regime could not possess weapons

561
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,279
of mass destruction. There was you know, they tried to

562
00:32:28,279 --> 00:32:29,920
make a case that there was all these connections to

563
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:35,559
al Qaeda inside the Iraqi regime, and then you know,

564
00:32:35,599 --> 00:32:37,799
they sold the war on that basis, right. It was

565
00:32:37,839 --> 00:32:40,519
a huge effort leading up to the invasion of Iraq,

566
00:32:41,119 --> 00:32:45,079
and once we got in and there were no w mds,

567
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,200
or at least there were no WMDs, you know, of

568
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,559
the kind that they had told us there were. And

569
00:32:51,599 --> 00:32:54,119
this was you know, the CIA was involved with this

570
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,559
is George Tennant, the director of the CIA at the time,

571
00:32:57,039 --> 00:33:01,119
famous phrase to President Bush was the the intel was

572
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:06,240
a slam dunk on WMD's And then, of course it

573
00:33:06,279 --> 00:33:09,599
all turned out not to be true. And so what

574
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,359
the administration had to do because we had already committed,

575
00:33:12,359 --> 00:33:16,720
we'd already toppled the regime. We had affected regime change.

576
00:33:17,359 --> 00:33:22,519
We had a massive army in Iraq, ground forces. We

577
00:33:22,599 --> 00:33:28,400
had a civilian administration appointee who was basically sort of

578
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,559
in charge of Iraq. He disbanded the Iraqi military, which

579
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,519
in retrospect was a huge mistake. And so they had

580
00:33:34,519 --> 00:33:37,400
to come up with a new like in the moment,

581
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,480
a new justification for why we were doing this. If

582
00:33:40,519 --> 00:33:44,000
there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, why

583
00:33:44,039 --> 00:33:47,400
have we invaded the country, Why have we decapitated the regime?

584
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:51,119
What is the purpose of our mission here? And they

585
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,759
had to cobble together a new justification for it, and

586
00:33:53,759 --> 00:33:57,519
that was this Neocon nation building all people's yearned for

587
00:33:57,559 --> 00:34:03,519
democracy clap trap that justified are ongoing nation building efforts

588
00:34:03,519 --> 00:34:07,039
in Iraq and in Afghanistan. Uh. You know, for years

589
00:34:07,039 --> 00:34:10,400
and years and years after that, that was not you know,

590
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,400
that was not part of the initial rhetoric to sell

591
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,320
the Iraq War to the American people, that the Iraqi

592
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,719
people were yearning for freedom and that and that you know,

593
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,840
there there was talk by Rumsfeld and some others, I

594
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:26,199
believe that we would be greeted as liberators, which was

595
00:34:26,519 --> 00:34:30,320
a complete fantasy, right and totally misunderstood. Uh, you know,

596
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:36,719
Middle East political uh, societal dynamics. But but the but

597
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,239
the justification that we have to make you know, the

598
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,199
Middle East safe for democracy and we that the Iraqi

599
00:34:43,199 --> 00:34:46,679
people deserve you know, freedom, and and they're gonna be

600
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:48,519
it's going to be just like the United States, and

601
00:34:48,519 --> 00:34:53,000
they're gonna have elections. That was all post facto justifications

602
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,440
that were cobbled together once it became obvious that there

603
00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:00,360
were no weapons of mass destruction and so so in

604
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,960
that sense, you know, so you asked about, you know what,

605
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,400
what are the similarities is you know, we keep being

606
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,800
told this is not Iraq uh and and and it's

607
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:13,199
not in that in that sense, it's not like in

608
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,199
contrast to it to the Iraq War. The Trump administration

609
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,320
has made no effort to communicate anything to the to

610
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,159
the American people ahead of time. They haven't tried to

611
00:35:22,159 --> 00:35:25,199
sell this on anything. Uh. They you know, barely told

612
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,159
us about it before it started happening. So so it's

613
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,119
unlike Iraq in that sense. And maybe it is just

614
00:35:31,159 --> 00:35:34,400
a case that President Trump does not feel that he

615
00:35:34,639 --> 00:35:39,960
needs to explain or justify these things beforehand, because it

616
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:43,159
all works out in the end. Like with Venezuela or

617
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:48,119
with Operation Midnight Hammer last June, and maybe that will

618
00:35:48,119 --> 00:35:50,320
happen again this time, and Trump is just sort of

619
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:55,280
the golden boy and everything works out for him. However,

620
00:35:56,159 --> 00:35:59,960
these these uh, these kinds of things tend to take

621
00:36:00,119 --> 00:36:04,719
on a life of their own. Events spiral out of control,

622
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,519
things don't go go according to plan. The other thing

623
00:36:07,519 --> 00:36:11,039
about about this conflict is that you know, Iran is

624
00:36:11,039 --> 00:36:14,239
is a is a big country. You know, it's it's

625
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,719
not Venezuela. And to your point, it's not Iraq either.

626
00:36:17,079 --> 00:36:20,199
It's a big country. It's not as fract just of

627
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,800
a country as Iraq was. Iraq was a was a

628
00:36:23,079 --> 00:36:27,480
was a cobbled together kind of a false country that

629
00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:30,400
was created at the aftermath of the Two World Wars.

630
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,719
It was it was ruled by Saddam Hussein's sort of

631
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:40,840
like a tribal group. Uh. There were a lot of

632
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:46,639
other ethnic groups and tribal coalitions in Iraq. It was

633
00:36:46,679 --> 00:36:51,960
a very it was a very unstable conglomeration of peoples

634
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,000
that made up this and that still make up the

635
00:36:54,599 --> 00:36:57,639
nation state of Iraq. That is not quite the same

636
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:02,559
in Iran. It's it's much more of a cohesive nation state.

637
00:37:03,039 --> 00:37:06,000
There's more of an ethnic majority there, or at least

638
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:10,639
in an ethnic plurality there. And it's not it's not

639
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,039
simply the case that we're going to be able to

640
00:37:13,119 --> 00:37:16,920
sort of, I think, really control what sort of regime

641
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,639
takes charge in Iraq. And maybe the Trump administration doesn't

642
00:37:20,679 --> 00:37:23,039
care what kind of regime takes control as long as

643
00:37:23,039 --> 00:37:27,920
they're not a revolutionary terrorist regime bent on acquiring nuclear weapons,

644
00:37:28,119 --> 00:37:30,599
you know, And and maybe that's as good as it

645
00:37:30,679 --> 00:37:34,480
gets in this part of the world. Again, it remains

646
00:37:34,519 --> 00:37:39,199
to be seen. I'm not I'm not I'm not instinctively

647
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:45,400
against our our aims here in in taming the the

648
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:49,920
Iranian regime, in changing it, in ensuring that it can't

649
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:53,719
threaten the United States. But I think that there's a

650
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,559
lot of unknowns, and I don't have confidence that the

651
00:37:56,599 --> 00:37:59,800
administration sort of has a real plan for what comes

652
00:38:00,119 --> 00:38:02,679
after this series of strikes, however long they.

653
00:38:02,679 --> 00:38:06,280
Speaker 1: Last, right, right, Well, especially because it all happened so quickly, John,

654
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,360
we could we couldn't have done anything to prepare for this.

655
00:38:08,679 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: Evacuate anybody, right right?

656
00:38:11,519 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: Is there anything to be learned here about, like the

657
00:38:15,119 --> 00:38:18,800
role of embassies or other US presence in the Middle East, Like,

658
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,199
should we be taking any lessons about this? Would it

659
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,800
be as easy to be chain ganged by a weaker

660
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:28,280
ally if we didn't have people just kind of permanently

661
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,920
stationed in the Middle East that are such easy targets

662
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:35,119
for terrorists and the Iranian regime, Like, like, what what

663
00:38:35,119 --> 00:38:36,079
should we take away from that?

664
00:38:36,599 --> 00:38:37,039
Speaker 2: Right? Yeah?

665
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:38,079
Speaker 1: And what can we do?

666
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:40,599
Speaker 2: How exposed we are? Right?

667
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 1: Right? Like has the has the train totally left the

668
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:44,480
station on that or like is there a world where

669
00:38:44,519 --> 00:38:47,719
we actually could change the status quo as it relates

670
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,000
to our presence in the Middle East?

671
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a larger question about American hegemony, uh,

672
00:38:53,519 --> 00:38:58,559
and and the unipolar world versus a multipolar world. You know,

673
00:38:58,599 --> 00:39:02,159
the reason that we have military bases all over the

674
00:39:02,199 --> 00:39:05,280
world is because after World War Two we were the

675
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:11,800
global hedgemon, and especially after the Cold War, you know,

676
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:15,400
and so you kind of have to take a uh

677
00:39:16,159 --> 00:39:19,480
kind of have to choose a strategic road, so to speak. Right,

678
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:23,760
you know, if you if you want a unipolar world

679
00:39:24,039 --> 00:39:27,639
where under American hegemony, then you are going to need

680
00:39:28,199 --> 00:39:31,079
US military bases all over the world. You know. One

681
00:39:31,119 --> 00:39:34,360
of the reasons that we have a military and this

682
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:36,920
this gets lost in the discussion about NATO and our

683
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:41,079
European allies who are totally kind of militarily incompetent. They

684
00:39:41,119 --> 00:39:45,320
don't they don't really have military's capabilities to speak of anymore.

685
00:39:46,519 --> 00:39:49,320
That's not that's that's a feature, not a bug of

686
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:50,760
the post World War two system.

687
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:51,039
Speaker 3: Right.

688
00:39:52,039 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 2: The idea is that by imposing American hegemony on Europe,

689
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:00,800
you prevent a general European war from breaking out again,

690
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,400
You make it impossible for something like World War two

691
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:08,000
to happen again. And so, you know, the response on

692
00:40:08,039 --> 00:40:10,199
the other side of the aisle to that is like, well,

693
00:40:10,039 --> 00:40:12,719
we you know, we don't want to spend our tax

694
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:19,039
dollars and our military resources put policing Europe in perpetuity forever.

695
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,400
And that's you know, and you can make that argument,

696
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,599
and that's sort of like that's the other sort of

697
00:40:23,639 --> 00:40:26,079
strategic road that we go down, that is sort of

698
00:40:26,119 --> 00:40:30,119
a fortress America doesn't matter. What happens in other countries,

699
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,920
doesn't matter, you know, what happens in the Middle East

700
00:40:34,039 --> 00:40:36,239
or other regions. We just need to take care of

701
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:42,880
our own and not quash small wars as they come up.

702
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,679
In these other parts of the world and conceive of

703
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:50,440
American interests narrowly. And I have some sympathy for that

704
00:40:50,559 --> 00:40:55,159
view after you know, twenty years of nation building and

705
00:40:56,280 --> 00:41:00,719
sort of neocon interventionism in places like Afghanistan. You know,

706
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:02,840
it's just like in say, it's like the worst place

707
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,239
in the world that we could have spent twenty years

708
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:09,639
in untold trillions of dollars trying to turn that into

709
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:13,079
something other than what it is always going to be.

710
00:41:14,559 --> 00:41:18,639
So all that to say, it's a larger question our

711
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:22,719
exposure in these different parts of the world, our exposure

712
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:24,760
in the Middle East because of all of our embassies

713
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:28,280
and our military bases in personnel. There is part of

714
00:41:29,119 --> 00:41:34,119
global US hegemony and maintaining that as as a strategic

715
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,639
framework for how we interact with the world. The US

716
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:44,880
led kind of rules based international order, right, And I

717
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,760
think that there's you know, there's room to debate whether

718
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:52,519
that has has been a good thing for the American people.

719
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,440
And I think that that, in the end is the

720
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,159
standard by which we need to judge all of these

721
00:41:59,599 --> 00:42:02,599
stress strategic options. What is best for the American people,

722
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:07,119
If global American hegemony serves the interest of the American people.

723
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:12,400
If it creates prosperity and success and peace for the

724
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,320
American people, then I'm all for it. To the extent

725
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:19,199
that it doesn't, then I see no reason to maintain

726
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,440
that order and that strategic posture for the sake of

727
00:42:23,199 --> 00:42:28,719
NGOs and international bodies and institutions that have little interest

728
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:32,039
in the prosperity and peace and security of the American people.

729
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,760
Speaker 1: So let's talk perception of the American people, because I mean,

730
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:37,679
I don't trust a whole lot of the polling coming

731
00:42:37,679 --> 00:42:41,480
out about who thinks what about the administration and their

732
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:44,280
actions right now, because it's also it's meant to shape

733
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,880
public opinion, and it's just also too early to know.

734
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,320
But if past is prologue, then the longer this carries on,

735
00:42:50,679 --> 00:42:52,920
the less appetite people will have for it, because that's

736
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,800
just how war works. But it also seems, I mean,

737
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:59,760
which is to be expected, that there is far far

738
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,639
more appetite for this in the Acela Corridor and in

739
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:04,840
the Beltway than there is in any of the rest

740
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:08,719
of the country, specifically among younger Americans, who I think

741
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:12,039
are so tired of hearing about war in the Middle East.

742
00:43:12,079 --> 00:43:14,360
I mean, you've got You've got boomer cons who just

743
00:43:14,519 --> 00:43:16,000
this is what they live for. But then you have

744
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:17,880
a lot of other people who are like, Hey, I'm

745
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,239
over here trying to buy a house, and we're you know,

746
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,920
talking about freedom for the Iranians. Like, what the heck

747
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:26,599
is going on? Can you just speak to maybe some

748
00:43:26,679 --> 00:43:29,440
of that generational divide? But even more than that, I mean,

749
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:32,199
we have midterms coming up this year, and I would

750
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:35,199
love to get your take on what you think the

751
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:38,360
implications of this will be in November, because the way

752
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,880
I'm looking at it, there is a whole lot of

753
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,960
potential political downside and not a whole lot of upside,

754
00:43:44,679 --> 00:43:48,119
And so you know, like what's the political calculus here?

755
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 2: Yeah? I tend to agree with you. I you know, like,

756
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:59,960
what concrete material improvement will ordinary middle class working America

757
00:44:00,119 --> 00:44:02,800
can see in their lives as a result of US

758
00:44:03,199 --> 00:44:07,960
toppling the Iranian regime and taking out its missile capabilities

759
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:12,920
and destroying its navy. I can't think of one. And

760
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:16,239
even if there even if there were one, I doubt

761
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,599
that that is going to sort of be like what

762
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,320
voters are thinking about when they go to the polls

763
00:44:21,519 --> 00:44:24,000
for the midterms, right, They're not going to be going

764
00:44:24,039 --> 00:44:27,960
to be like, oh man, that Iran war, that was awesome.

765
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:32,639
I'm voting. I'm voting for the Republicans. You know, it's

766
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,280
just the downside seems like there's a lot of potential downsides,

767
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,320
and again, you know, it remains to be seen, right

768
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:43,400
because we're only a few days into this. The downsides

769
00:44:43,559 --> 00:44:47,800
seem like, the potential downsides seem great, The potential upsides

770
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:53,960
from an electoral perspective seem elusive, hard to articulate. My

771
00:44:54,119 --> 00:44:57,679
preference would be for this Trump administration to have had

772
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:04,440
a laser like focus on domestic issues. I think that

773
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:10,280
the coalition that elected Trump was reacting to what they

774
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:14,000
saw in the Biden administration, and among the Democrats, I

775
00:45:14,039 --> 00:45:18,719
think that having a laser like focus on deportations and

776
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:24,800
immigration reform and securing the border and cracking down on

777
00:45:25,559 --> 00:45:28,840
the abuse of our visa system and our asylum system

778
00:45:29,519 --> 00:45:33,480
is a major concern for the people who voted for Trump.

779
00:45:34,119 --> 00:45:37,599
The economy, you mentioned young people not being able to

780
00:45:38,039 --> 00:45:40,599
afford to buy houses. I think there's a reason that

781
00:45:40,679 --> 00:45:44,199
like boomer cons get excited about like these foreign kind

782
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:48,320
of adventures because they've they've kind of made it like

783
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:53,159
the economy is built around benefiting them, and not so

784
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,519
much younger Americans who are trying to start families, who're

785
00:45:56,559 --> 00:45:58,480
trying to get established, who are trying to sort of

786
00:45:58,639 --> 00:46:02,760
enter the middle class and be self sufficient, and maybe

787
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:04,679
even you know, sort of put some money away and

788
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,760
do all the things that Americans would like to do.

789
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:13,119
And so it is the case that administrations can be

790
00:46:13,199 --> 00:46:17,280
distracted by things, or that attention can be I mean

791
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,440
not even you know, let's say you don't even want

792
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,119
to use the word distracted. There's only so much attention

793
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:25,760
and effort that can go towards certain things. And a

794
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:29,199
lot of times in any administration, the thing that gets

795
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:32,000
done is the thing that enough people within the administration

796
00:46:32,039 --> 00:46:34,480
are focused on. I think that's one of the reasons

797
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,599
that Venezuela happened. It's not that it was the number

798
00:46:37,639 --> 00:46:40,079
one thing on anyone's agenda. It was that it was

799
00:46:40,119 --> 00:46:43,440
on enough people's agenda that it got done. And so

800
00:46:44,599 --> 00:46:47,639
when you embark on something like what we've embarked on

801
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:52,280
here in Iran, nobody knows where this is going, nobody

802
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:54,440
knows how long this is going to last, nobody knows

803
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:57,239
how much it will cost nobody knows what the fallout

804
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,559
is going to be in terms of US involvement in

805
00:46:59,599 --> 00:47:03,079
the region, but I do feel pretty confident in saying

806
00:47:03,119 --> 00:47:09,119
that the administration is focused entirely on Iran now, and

807
00:47:09,159 --> 00:47:13,360
that is unfortunately to the exclusion of other domestic priorities

808
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,760
that I think are way more important to Republican voters

809
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,760
and are going to be way more of a motivating

810
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:25,119
factor in the midterms, especially if god forbid, you know,

811
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,719
we have a large number of casualties, or we have

812
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,840
some sort of terrorist attack where civilians are killed, either

813
00:47:32,039 --> 00:47:36,039
here or abroad. That's going to sour people on this

814
00:47:36,559 --> 00:47:39,320
really quickly. And so if there's a huge risk involved

815
00:47:39,519 --> 00:47:44,559
in committing so much attention and concentration and resources to

816
00:47:44,679 --> 00:47:49,039
something where the upsides, at least from an electoral perspective,

817
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,840
are pretty elusive, it's pretty hard to see what the

818
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:52,639
upsides are.

819
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there are very clear issues that are

820
00:47:56,039 --> 00:47:59,760
top of mind for the American people. Obviously the economy, obviously, immigration,

821
00:48:00,559 --> 00:48:04,559
also apparently elections. I mean, there was one thing that

822
00:48:04,639 --> 00:48:08,119
Americans really wanted the Senate to just get done. They

823
00:48:08,119 --> 00:48:10,280
had the Save America Act. They you know, they could

824
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,400
utilize the talking filibuster and actually make some progress on this.

825
00:48:13,679 --> 00:48:15,719
And it seems that the only things, you know, the

826
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,559
only things the Senate has actually worked hard on, are

827
00:48:19,679 --> 00:48:24,119
doing interventionist messaging for the Trump administration. That's mixed messaging

828
00:48:24,119 --> 00:48:27,280
and you know, getting all excited about war and doing

829
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,239
all of the work they possibly can to extend the

830
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,199
enhanced Obabacare subsidies a couple of months ago. I mean,

831
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:36,159
it's like anytime there's an actual priority that Americans are like, hey,

832
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:38,079
this is an eighty twenty issue, or this should be

833
00:48:38,119 --> 00:48:42,119
able to get done, it's like there is no effort whatsoever.

834
00:48:42,199 --> 00:48:45,280
And it's just so frustrating when you had actual tangible

835
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:50,800
things that could represent real wins, like you know, policy aims,

836
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:54,960
campaign promises, these types of concrete things, and instead, now

837
00:48:55,039 --> 00:48:57,199
all of the oxygen has once again been sucked out

838
00:48:57,199 --> 00:49:00,880
of the room by something that not only is not

839
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:02,920
going to help Americans, but it's actually kind of a

840
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,440
middle finger to Americans who actually have priorities that they

841
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,360
want to see done, and it's just Nope, nope, we

842
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:08,840
don't have time for that. We got we gotta do

843
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,239
war with Iran. So and whether you even see the

844
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,920
merits of that or not. It's like, we have problems

845
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,039
in our own country, you know, that people care about,

846
00:49:16,079 --> 00:49:17,559
and just to not see any movement on that is

847
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:22,239
is incredibly incredibly frustrating for a lot of Americans. On

848
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:26,039
the congressional point, I'm curious what you think just about

849
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:29,800
even like the constitutionality of this kind of military action.

850
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:36,400
I think, you know, essentially declaring war on Iran seems

851
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,039
to me to be very different than like targeted drug

852
00:49:39,119 --> 00:49:43,440
boat strikes or like even the Madureau operation. Do you

853
00:49:43,559 --> 00:49:45,440
think that this was above board?

854
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 2: Was it?

855
00:49:46,199 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 1: Were we wrong not to have congressional approval here? Like

856
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:50,639
it seems to me that this was a bigger declaration

857
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:52,639
of war than some of the other actions the Trump

858
00:49:52,639 --> 00:49:53,719
administration has taken.

859
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I sort of mixed feelings about that. I think

860
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:02,159
that Okay, since you know, World War Two, we've kind

861
00:50:02,159 --> 00:50:06,360
of been a in a situation where, uh, the executive

862
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:11,960
has broad latitude to use the military, uh to protect

863
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:18,159
American interests and and and to take action overseas as

864
00:50:18,199 --> 00:50:21,400
it sees fit. And and so I think that that

865
00:50:21,559 --> 00:50:25,719
fits within that broader sort of post World War two framework.

866
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:31,400
You know, obviously, if Trump had gone to Congress to

867
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:36,159
seek a declaration of war against Iran. Excuse me, he

868
00:50:36,199 --> 00:50:40,079
wouldn't have got it, and I don't think you know,

869
00:50:40,159 --> 00:50:44,400
maybe the only administration that would have, you know, would

870
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:47,519
have been able to secure an actual declaration of war

871
00:50:48,119 --> 00:50:50,800
since World War Two was the George W. Bush administration

872
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:54,239
in the wake of nine to eleven. Interestingly, in that case,

873
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:56,280
they didn't even ask for a declaration of war. That

874
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:58,800
was the au It was an aum F, the Authorization

875
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:03,199
for the Use of Military Force. That was that that

876
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:06,679
sort of stayed in effect for many, many years. I

877
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:10,320
believe it's actually still in effect. And that was sort

878
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:15,320
of like a half measure short of a declaration of war. So,

879
00:51:15,559 --> 00:51:20,679
you know, in some ways, the just the way that

880
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:23,960
the United States has conducted foreign policy since the end

881
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,679
of World War Two has rendered this a bit of

882
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:31,519
an academic debate with not a lot of real world applications.

883
00:51:31,599 --> 00:51:36,119
I know that the Democrats sort of use that opportunistically.

884
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:40,280
You know, every time the Republican administration does something overseas

885
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:42,920
with the military that they don't like, they say, ah,

886
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:46,440
this is illegal. There's no you know, congression. But of course,

887
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:49,719
you know, Obama can go ahead and drone American citizens

888
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,000
all over the world, and Democrats won't say anything, right,

889
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:56,159
So it's a very cynical talking point that I think

890
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:59,440
is deployed to some extent on both sides. Democrats seem

891
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,960
to do it more often than Republicans. But but in

892
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:07,800
this case, I just think the the fact is that

893
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:11,719
was never going to happen like that. Even if this

894
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:16,599
had gone perfectly and the Trump administration had made a

895
00:52:16,639 --> 00:52:20,880
case to the American people and had prepared US for

896
00:52:21,159 --> 00:52:24,239
imminent action against Duran, I still don't think that Trump

897
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:26,280
would have gone to Congress to ask for a declaration

898
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:31,599
of war, and short of some more basic like structural

899
00:52:31,679 --> 00:52:35,360
changes to the way our three branches of government operate,

900
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:39,760
I don't I just don't see that that any president

901
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:43,280
in either party is ever going to do that in

902
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,559
you know, in the current environment that we're in.

903
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:49,760
Speaker 1: You brought up terrorism a couple of minutes ago, and

904
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:53,119
we saw this mass shooting over the past couple of

905
00:52:53,159 --> 00:52:57,840
days in Austin that seemed like potentially had links to

906
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:00,480
like Islamic terrorism. It's hard to know exactly. We're not

907
00:53:00,519 --> 00:53:03,239
getting great information and it's a little bit mixed, but

908
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,079
he at least had indications that you know, he had

909
00:53:06,119 --> 00:53:08,760
a sweatshirt that was like pro Alla and some other

910
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,119
things that indicated that maybe this was like a pro

911
00:53:11,199 --> 00:53:15,280
Iran attack. Who knows, but I think it's raised some

912
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,239
questions for me about what we might be looking at

913
00:53:18,639 --> 00:53:22,639
in the near future efforts to do refugee resettlement. Yeah,

914
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:26,119
like you know, things like that. How can we make

915
00:53:26,159 --> 00:53:29,159
sure that we do not open the floodgates to a

916
00:53:29,199 --> 00:53:32,239
bunch more unvetted foreigners. You know, we got a lot

917
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:36,599
of nonsense rhetoric from the Biden administration about, you know,

918
00:53:36,679 --> 00:53:39,559
during the withdrawal from Afghanistan, how there were all of

919
00:53:39,599 --> 00:53:43,239
these vetted immigrants, all these vetted refugees who were resettled

920
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:46,159
here that turned out to be an absolute load of dunk.

921
00:53:47,079 --> 00:53:49,480
How can we ensure that this does not does not

922
00:53:49,559 --> 00:53:51,920
result in the exact same thing, where we're just opening

923
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:53,320
the door to more terrorism.

924
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:56,880
Speaker 2: It's very hard to see how it doesn't. I mean, remember,

925
00:53:57,079 --> 00:53:59,880
just not that long ago, it was one of those

926
00:54:00,079 --> 00:54:05,920
Afghan refugees unvetted who attacked the National guardsmen in Washington,

927
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:09,840
d C. It was a December or January not that

928
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:14,920
long ago, and that was part of this wave of

929
00:54:15,159 --> 00:54:18,000
people that we just led into the country because of

930
00:54:18,039 --> 00:54:23,920
the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. I think it's a major problem.

931
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:29,360
Anytime there's major geopolitical upheaval in the Middle eastt it

932
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:34,679
triggers waves of refugees. In to twenty fourteen twenty fifteen,

933
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:40,159
the Syrian civil war triggered the ongoing migrant crisis in Europe.

934
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:45,760
The Muslim population of Europe for over the past ten

935
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:49,880
years has exploded largely because of these waves of refugees

936
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:52,960
that came out of the Middle East during this period

937
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:58,000
of intense civil war in Syria. So the idea that

938
00:54:58,039 --> 00:55:01,320
we're going to go in and decapitate the regime that

939
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:04,199
has ruled for a half a century in Iran and

940
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:07,199
it's not going to have second and third order effects

941
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:12,519
in the forms of migrant crises, refugee crises, unvetted people

942
00:55:13,039 --> 00:55:18,039
making their way out of Iran into European countries, into

943
00:55:18,079 --> 00:55:22,280
the United States. Potentially, we already know during the Biden administration,

944
00:55:23,159 --> 00:55:26,519
if something like fifteen hundred Iranians were apprehended at the

945
00:55:26,519 --> 00:55:31,719
border crossing into the country illegally, of those, seven hundred

946
00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:35,239
and fifty or so were released into the country. Those

947
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:37,599
are only the people that we know about, because of course,

948
00:55:37,639 --> 00:55:41,199
there were hundreds of thousands of what they call known godaways,

949
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:46,000
which are people who crossed the border illegally of unknown origin.

950
00:55:46,199 --> 00:55:48,239
We have no idea who these people were. They were

951
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:50,800
not apprehended and they got away. And that's also not

952
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:54,280
counting all of the So there's the known Godaways, and

953
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:56,840
then there's also what they call the unknown Godaways, which

954
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:00,000
is just the number of people who crossed, who evade

955
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:03,360
detection and we were not even aware that they had crossed.

956
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:05,159
In other words, they weren't picked up on a camera,

957
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:08,880
they didn't trip a censor, they were able to cross

958
00:56:08,880 --> 00:56:11,400
into the border. And there's hundreds of thousands of those

959
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,760
as well, and ICE and CBP have a way of

960
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:18,119
calculating those things as well, so you know, so there's

961
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:22,000
there's you know, these are real concerns, and these again,

962
00:56:22,079 --> 00:56:23,639
these are the kinds of things that you would hope

963
00:56:23,639 --> 00:56:27,239
there would be some kind of like public discussion of

964
00:56:27,679 --> 00:56:30,679
there would be an effort by the administration to mollify

965
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:35,719
the legitimate fears of the American people, especially after, as

966
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:39,960
I said, we had one of the Afghan refugees, you know,

967
00:56:40,039 --> 00:56:43,880
attack our national guardsmen in the nation's capital just happened.

968
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:48,159
There's every reason to be concerned about that happening now

969
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:53,559
when we know from from from the Biden administration era

970
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:58,119
of the illegal immigration wave that came in that there

971
00:56:58,159 --> 00:57:00,719
are Iranians, There are Iranians who were on the terrorist

972
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:03,000
watch list that came in. There are people from all

973
00:57:03,079 --> 00:57:06,800
all kinds of other Muslim majority countries on terrorist watch

974
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:10,639
lists that came in. Todd Benzman, who now works for

975
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:14,519
Tom Homan and the Trump administration, during the you know,

976
00:57:14,559 --> 00:57:17,079
he wrote a bunch of articles for us about this

977
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:20,400
very thing, about people who are on these watch lists

978
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:23,239
who are being apprehended at the border under the Biden administration.

979
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:27,039
So this is another thing that you can't just hand

980
00:57:27,079 --> 00:57:31,000
wave it away. This is a real security concern, and

981
00:57:31,119 --> 00:57:35,119
unfortunately it's something that we, you know, have to take

982
00:57:35,159 --> 00:57:39,079
into an account when we launch these kinds of actions overseas.

983
00:57:39,079 --> 00:57:42,639
And I hope the administration has taken it to account.

984
00:57:43,599 --> 00:57:46,199
They haven't talked about it much. They haven't talked about

985
00:57:46,199 --> 00:57:48,639
a lot of things very much. So, you know, I

986
00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:51,960
hope that there's some there's someone in the White House

987
00:57:52,039 --> 00:57:55,440
or someone in the administration who is at least preparing

988
00:57:56,199 --> 00:57:59,280
Trump and the other principal officials in the administration to

989
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:04,079
rise exist accepting, you know, wave upon wave of Iranian

990
00:58:04,119 --> 00:58:07,760
refugees in you know, a month or two. Yeah.

991
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 1: I think that also just adds fuel to the fire

992
00:58:10,039 --> 00:58:13,320
of why the condescension not only from the administration but

993
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:17,440
also from people who are just instinctively pro strikes like this,

994
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:20,760
Why that condescension is so frustrating for Americans because it's like,

995
00:58:21,039 --> 00:58:24,119
you're not a roob for asking questions about the potential

996
00:58:24,199 --> 00:58:26,000
second and third order effects of this. And you know,

997
00:58:26,039 --> 00:58:28,400
it's similar to pharmaceuticals where it's like it has all

998
00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:31,280
these side effects. No, those aren't side effects, those are effects.

999
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:32,920
Those are just things that are going to happen if

1000
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:35,960
you take this like and you know, it's not that

1001
00:58:36,079 --> 00:58:40,679
you can bomb bomb another country, take out another leader,

1002
00:58:40,719 --> 00:58:44,079
and then act surprised when there's a refugee crisis, like, No,

1003
00:58:44,199 --> 00:58:46,679
this is actually foreseeable. So we need to know that

1004
00:58:47,519 --> 00:58:50,159
American interests are being considered here because it's not just

1005
00:58:50,159 --> 00:58:53,239
going to be contained over over there, like we are

1006
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:55,079
going to feel the effects of that because of the

1007
00:58:55,119 --> 00:58:57,760
second and third order effects that are predictable in a

1008
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:01,360
situation like this, and so the refugee implications are are

1009
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:03,039
just one of those many things, And it would be

1010
00:59:03,079 --> 00:59:06,039
really great to get a clear, non condescending answer from

1011
00:59:06,039 --> 00:59:08,239
the administration and from people who are hawking the war

1012
00:59:08,280 --> 00:59:11,159
on this as to why why you know that's not

1013
00:59:11,199 --> 00:59:15,079
a concern here. So John, before I let you go,

1014
00:59:16,599 --> 00:59:21,000
you know, media coverage of this whole thing has been abysmal,

1015
00:59:21,159 --> 00:59:25,800
from how the Iahtola is being, you know, harolded as

1016
00:59:25,840 --> 00:59:28,119
this wonderful man with a nice smile and a bushy

1017
00:59:28,119 --> 00:59:30,320
beard and all the rest. And of course, you know,

1018
00:59:30,360 --> 00:59:33,239
we're only days into this and everybody already has an

1019
00:59:33,280 --> 00:59:37,400
exact fully formed opinion on everything. I love our colleague

1020
00:59:37,440 --> 00:59:39,639
Chris Bray's approach, which is that I'm about a week

1021
00:59:39,679 --> 00:59:41,880
away from starting to have an opinion on this. I

1022
00:59:41,880 --> 00:59:43,679
love that, and I think more people should be that way.

1023
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:48,760
But just practical takeaways for Americans who are listening to this,

1024
00:59:49,159 --> 00:59:51,440
who either have a strong opinion or don't know what

1025
00:59:51,519 --> 00:59:54,840
to think about this yet, how can they stay sane

1026
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:59,280
and not look stupid as they navigate conversations about this,

1027
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:01,960
as they take public positions on this. I know El Parnell,

1028
01:00:02,599 --> 01:00:04,199
one of our colleagues at the Federalists is a really

1029
01:00:04,199 --> 01:00:06,920
great article on this, but just practically like people not

1030
01:00:07,079 --> 01:00:10,360
look insane and not come out with a gut reaction

1031
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:12,360
that's going to look that's not going to age. Well,

1032
01:00:12,639 --> 01:00:13,199
shall we say?

1033
01:00:13,320 --> 01:00:16,679
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think it's important for people to remember you

1034
01:00:16,719 --> 01:00:20,760
don't have to have a super strident opinion about the

1035
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:25,480
Iranian war, right. You don't have to be super passionate

1036
01:00:25,519 --> 01:00:29,880
about it. You don't have to pick a side, you

1037
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:33,000
don't have to weigh in on it. You know. One

1038
01:00:33,079 --> 01:00:37,400
of the great travesties of social media and the Internet

1039
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:41,000
in general is that everybody feels like they have to

1040
01:00:41,159 --> 01:00:44,679
sort of, you know, have an opinion and broadcast the opinion.

1041
01:00:45,159 --> 01:00:50,000
And that's simply not true. For one thing, not everybody's

1042
01:00:50,159 --> 01:00:53,679
entitled to an opinion, right. I tend to think you

1043
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:56,320
have to earn your opinions, right if you want them

1044
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,039
to carry any weight. And so it's okay to sort

1045
01:00:59,039 --> 01:01:02,599
of reserve judgment. It's okay to wait and watch and

1046
01:01:02,639 --> 01:01:06,280
see how things unfold. And I think that's especially true

1047
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:11,079
in this conflict. Since there really was no public debate

1048
01:01:11,239 --> 01:01:14,360
about this before it happened, we haven't been kind of

1049
01:01:14,400 --> 01:01:17,920
like in a discourse about Iran and what to do

1050
01:01:18,039 --> 01:01:21,679
about it, you know, leading up to this action. I

1051
01:01:21,719 --> 01:01:23,760
know that there's been a broader discourse has been going

1052
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:26,599
on for many years about what to do about Iran's

1053
01:01:26,920 --> 01:01:31,199
nuclear weapons. But this isn't something that you know, we

1054
01:01:31,559 --> 01:01:34,880
were all kind of talking about and debating, and the

1055
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:37,159
ground had not been prepared for this. And so it's

1056
01:01:37,199 --> 01:01:40,360
okay to take a breath, to take a beat, and

1057
01:01:40,679 --> 01:01:45,320
to watch and to wait and to assess, you know,

1058
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:48,079
what you think of the arguments that are being made,

1059
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:50,199
of the statements that are coming out of the White

1060
01:01:50,199 --> 01:01:55,719
House and the administration. I myself, you know, we commentate

1061
01:01:55,760 --> 01:01:57,519
on this stuff and cover this stuff for a living.

1062
01:01:58,159 --> 01:02:01,840
I'm trying to be measured in my response. You know,

1063
01:02:02,239 --> 01:02:04,599
you may not seem like that from the headlines of

1064
01:02:04,599 --> 01:02:08,760
my pieces, which I don't always write. But uh, but

1065
01:02:08,760 --> 01:02:11,559
but but it's it's okay to not have a super

1066
01:02:11,639 --> 01:02:14,920
strident opinion about this, and it's okay to change your

1067
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:19,119
opinion too, based upon like what happens. I think that

1068
01:02:19,199 --> 01:02:25,719
the the tribalism in our society, understandably so, uh, is

1069
01:02:25,760 --> 01:02:28,519
such that everybody feels like they have to kind of

1070
01:02:29,639 --> 01:02:32,079
you know, make a super strong statement or be in

1071
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,920
a camp on every issue that comes across the wire,

1072
01:02:36,559 --> 01:02:40,760
and especially when it comes to foreign conflicts like this,

1073
01:02:41,000 --> 01:02:46,280
especially when it comes to these major military actions, the

1074
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:50,039
better part of wisdom is to is to be conservative

1075
01:02:50,559 --> 01:02:54,840
in your temperament towards what is happening. Part of the

1076
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:57,360
reason for that is because in an environment like this,

1077
01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:00,800
there's a huge amount of propaganda, there's a huge amount

1078
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:05,679
of efforts to manipulate public opinion. There's a lot of

1079
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:10,639
false information out there. Social media makes it a million

1080
01:03:10,679 --> 01:03:15,079
times worse, right, because you're seeing video images, you're seeing clips,

1081
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:19,280
you're seeing footage that may be taken out of context,

1082
01:03:19,519 --> 01:03:25,039
You're seeing things that may be generated by AI and.

1083
01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:27,000
Speaker 1: Paraphrases of what people said instead of actions exactly.

1084
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:30,280
Speaker 2: It's very easy to be kind of led down the

1085
01:03:30,320 --> 01:03:33,400
garden path, so to speak, in a situation that has

1086
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,159
always been the case. I think it's even more so

1087
01:03:36,559 --> 01:03:41,480
now because of social media and because of our hyper connectivity.

1088
01:03:42,960 --> 01:03:47,360
And so that's just to say, caution is even more warranted,

1089
01:03:48,119 --> 01:03:53,000
and conservative disposition is even more warranted than it might

1090
01:03:53,039 --> 01:03:56,800
have otherwise been in previous American wars, Like you know,

1091
01:03:57,079 --> 01:03:59,280
in two thousand and three when we invaded Iraq. You know,

1092
01:04:00,119 --> 01:04:03,480
thank god, there was no smartphones and and no real

1093
01:04:03,519 --> 01:04:07,280
social media, right there was there were blogs. Uh you know,

1094
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:11,480
how how how harmful could they be? So so that's that,

1095
01:04:11,639 --> 01:04:14,559
that's that's my you know, that's my general advice is

1096
01:04:14,559 --> 01:04:19,760
to just be conservative in your statements and in your opinions. Uh,

1097
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:22,719
it's okay to with whole judgment. I may not know

1098
01:04:22,760 --> 01:04:27,480
what my real opinions are about this war for weeks

1099
01:04:27,559 --> 01:04:30,679
or months and and and and I think that's okay.

1100
01:04:31,239 --> 01:04:31,639
Mm hmm.

1101
01:04:32,119 --> 01:04:33,840
Speaker 1: Catch John in a decade if you want to know

1102
01:04:33,840 --> 01:04:37,760
what he thinks about Yah, that's right. Well. In an

1103
01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:41,079
effort to cut through the propaganda, go follow John on

1104
01:04:41,119 --> 01:04:43,639
Twitter for his day to day takes on the Iran war.

1105
01:04:44,559 --> 01:04:47,239
Go follow The Federalist on Twitter as well, and be

1106
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:50,519
sure to read John's great article on The Federalist how

1107
01:04:50,599 --> 01:04:55,480
Israel chain gang the Trump administration into war against Iran? John,

1108
01:04:55,519 --> 01:04:57,199
thank you so much for being on the Kayla Guest today.

1109
01:04:57,199 --> 01:04:57,880
It was great having you.

1110
01:04:57,920 --> 01:04:58,519
Speaker 2: Thanks, Kylie.

1111
01:05:04,000 --> 01:05:06,159
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for tuning in to this week's

1112
01:05:06,199 --> 01:05:09,039
episode of The Kylie Cast if you haven't done so

1113
01:05:09,079 --> 01:05:12,639
already Please like and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

1114
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:15,000
Leave us a five star review. It'll only take you

1115
01:05:15,039 --> 01:05:17,360
a second and it's such a good and easy way

1116
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:19,880
for you to help out the show. As always, I

1117
01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:22,840
will be back next week with more so until then,

1118
01:05:23,000 --> 01:05:25,920
just remember the truth hurts, but it won't kill you