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<v Speaker 1>Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Cole. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining me today. NATO's credibility gap widening. The United States

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<v Speaker 1>is pulling a tank brigade out of Europe. At the

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<v Speaker 1>same time Washington is telling NATO allies they need to

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<v Speaker 1>spend five percent of GDP on defense. That gap between

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<v Speaker 1>what the US is withdrawing and what it's demanding is

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<v Speaker 1>the central tension shaping the alliance right now, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>heading into the anchor asomic unresolved. The key implication is

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<v Speaker 1>this NATO's deterrent posture has never rested on European armo alone.

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<v Speaker 1>US capabilities in reconnaissance, satellites, air defense, and logistics are

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<v Speaker 1>what hold the architecture together. A tank brigade withdrawal doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>collapse that architecture overnight, but it narrows the margin, and

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<v Speaker 1>it signals something about American intent that allies can't easily ignore.

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<v Speaker 1>Germany is trying to fill part of that gap. Berlin

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<v Speaker 1>has redeployed its forty fifth armored brigade eastward to Lithuania,

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<v Speaker 1>a concrete substitution for absent US armour. The symbolism isn't lost.

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<v Speaker 1>Germany deploying armoured forces into territory at once devastated carries

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<v Speaker 1>a weight that goes beyond force posture. It reflects how

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<v Speaker 1>thoroughly the calculus of European security has shifted. The question

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<v Speaker 1>is whether that substitution is credible. Lithuania's president doesn't think

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<v Speaker 1>the current trajectory is enough, warning that NATO risks fracture

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<v Speaker 1>if members don't reach that five percent spending threshold. Germany

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<v Speaker 1>is taking on record levels of debt to fund its

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<v Speaker 1>defense expansion, which tells you the political will is present.

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<v Speaker 1>Whether it translates into actual capability in time is the

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<v Speaker 1>unresolved part On a separate front. Iran's six day funeral

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<v Speaker 1>for Supreme Leader Ali Kammene began July fourth, and Washington

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<v Speaker 1>pours us around negotiations for the morning period. Katar's mediators

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<v Speaker 1>had reported positive progressing Doha before the funeral halted talks.

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<v Speaker 1>What that progress actually covered, whether tolls, asset unfreezing or

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<v Speaker 1>broader framework implementation, hasn't been dislosed. The signal here is

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<v Speaker 1>in what happens after July ninth. Iran's new Supreme leader

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<v Speaker 1>didn't appear at the funeral's opening ceremony and the factional

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<v Speaker 1>balance inside the regime remains unclear. Hardliners and pragmatists are

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<v Speaker 1>contesting the direction of any Mowul framework, which faction shapes.

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<v Speaker 1>Mortaba's first real decisions will tell you a great deal

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<v Speaker 1>about whether those doughhar discussions lead anywhere. Here's the thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Iren isn't waiting for the funeral to end to apply

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<v Speaker 1>pressure elsewhere. On July fourth, Taran issued fresh warnings to

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<v Speaker 1>vessels in the Strait of Hormus, insisting ships followed Tarran

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<v Speaker 1>designated roots and comply with its toll scheme. Oman has

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<v Speaker 1>opposed that scheme, which matters because Omani alternative roots undercut

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<v Speaker 1>Iran's leverage if enough traffic diverts. Iran's continued insistence suggests

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<v Speaker 1>it views Hormu's control as its primary card in any

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<v Speaker 1>post funeral negotiation, not a concession it's prepared to trade cheaply.

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<v Speaker 1>A new IRGC Navy commander, Rear Admiral Ali Osmaye, has

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<v Speaker 1>replaced the previous commander following the postwar military reshuffling. Whether

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<v Speaker 1>that chain shifts tactics or simply reorganizes the same posture

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<v Speaker 1>is worth watching. Ukraine launched another high volume drone strike overnight,

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<v Speaker 1>Russia intercepted three hundred and eighty nine UAVs across multiple regions.

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<v Speaker 1>The volume is the point. Ukraine is running an attrition

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<v Speaker 1>strategy built on persistence and mass, adapting to Russian air

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<v Speaker 1>defense dominance by overwhelming it with numbers rather than trying

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<v Speaker 1>to evade it clingly. Reports of launchers from Latvian training grounds,

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<v Speaker 1>if confirmed, would indicate Ukraine is leveraging Allied territory to

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<v Speaker 1>extend its operational reach beyond Russian border interdiction. Three things

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<v Speaker 1>to track. First, what posture runs new leadership dots after

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<v Speaker 1>the funeral concludes on July ninth. Second, whether the Anchor

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<v Speaker 1>and NATO summit produces any concrete burden sharing commitments or

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<v Speaker 1>ends as a statement of intent without enforcement. Third, whether

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<v Speaker 1>the Hormost toll dispute surfaces, is a formal sticking point

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<v Speaker 1>in any resumed US around talks or stays as a

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<v Speaker 1>background pressure campaign. The through line across all of it

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<v Speaker 1>is the same. The US is pulling back selectively while

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<v Speaker 1>expecting allies to compensate, and both Iran and European partners

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<v Speaker 1>are calculating how seriously to take that. Thanks for listening,

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<v Speaker 1>This podcast was built using AI technology. A yes we

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<v Speaker 1>production