Speaker 1: Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Cole. Thanks for
Speaker 1: joining me today. NATO's credibility gap widening. The United States
Speaker 1: is pulling a tank brigade out of Europe. At the
Speaker 1: same time Washington is telling NATO allies they need to
Speaker 1: spend five percent of GDP on defense. That gap between
Speaker 1: what the US is withdrawing and what it's demanding is
Speaker 1: the central tension shaping the alliance right now, and it's
Speaker 1: heading into the anchor asomic unresolved. The key implication is
Speaker 1: this NATO's deterrent posture has never rested on European armo alone.
Speaker 1: US capabilities in reconnaissance, satellites, air defense, and logistics are
Speaker 1: what hold the architecture together. A tank brigade withdrawal doesn't
Speaker 1: collapse that architecture overnight, but it narrows the margin, and
Speaker 1: it signals something about American intent that allies can't easily ignore.
Speaker 1: Germany is trying to fill part of that gap. Berlin
Speaker 1: has redeployed its forty fifth armored brigade eastward to Lithuania,
Speaker 1: a concrete substitution for absent US armour. The symbolism isn't lost.
Speaker 1: Germany deploying armoured forces into territory at once devastated carries
Speaker 1: a weight that goes beyond force posture. It reflects how
Speaker 1: thoroughly the calculus of European security has shifted. The question
Speaker 1: is whether that substitution is credible. Lithuania's president doesn't think
Speaker 1: the current trajectory is enough, warning that NATO risks fracture
Speaker 1: if members don't reach that five percent spending threshold. Germany
Speaker 1: is taking on record levels of debt to fund its
Speaker 1: defense expansion, which tells you the political will is present.
Speaker 1: Whether it translates into actual capability in time is the
Speaker 1: unresolved part On a separate front. Iran's six day funeral
Speaker 1: for Supreme Leader Ali Kammene began July fourth, and Washington
Speaker 1: pours us around negotiations for the morning period. Katar's mediators
Speaker 1: had reported positive progressing Doha before the funeral halted talks.
Speaker 1: What that progress actually covered, whether tolls, asset unfreezing or
Speaker 1: broader framework implementation, hasn't been dislosed. The signal here is
Speaker 1: in what happens after July ninth. Iran's new Supreme leader
Speaker 1: didn't appear at the funeral's opening ceremony and the factional
Speaker 1: balance inside the regime remains unclear. Hardliners and pragmatists are
Speaker 1: contesting the direction of any Mowul framework, which faction shapes.
Speaker 1: Mortaba's first real decisions will tell you a great deal
Speaker 1: about whether those doughhar discussions lead anywhere. Here's the thing.
Speaker 1: Iren isn't waiting for the funeral to end to apply
Speaker 1: pressure elsewhere. On July fourth, Taran issued fresh warnings to
Speaker 1: vessels in the Strait of Hormus, insisting ships followed Tarran
Speaker 1: designated roots and comply with its toll scheme. Oman has
Speaker 1: opposed that scheme, which matters because Omani alternative roots undercut
Speaker 1: Iran's leverage if enough traffic diverts. Iran's continued insistence suggests
Speaker 1: it views Hormu's control as its primary card in any
Speaker 1: post funeral negotiation, not a concession it's prepared to trade cheaply.
Speaker 1: A new IRGC Navy commander, Rear Admiral Ali Osmaye, has
Speaker 1: replaced the previous commander following the postwar military reshuffling. Whether
Speaker 1: that chain shifts tactics or simply reorganizes the same posture
Speaker 1: is worth watching. Ukraine launched another high volume drone strike overnight,
Speaker 1: Russia intercepted three hundred and eighty nine UAVs across multiple regions.
Speaker 1: The volume is the point. Ukraine is running an attrition
Speaker 1: strategy built on persistence and mass, adapting to Russian air
Speaker 1: defense dominance by overwhelming it with numbers rather than trying
Speaker 1: to evade it clingly. Reports of launchers from Latvian training grounds,
Speaker 1: if confirmed, would indicate Ukraine is leveraging Allied territory to
Speaker 1: extend its operational reach beyond Russian border interdiction. Three things
Speaker 1: to track. First, what posture runs new leadership dots after
Speaker 1: the funeral concludes on July ninth. Second, whether the Anchor
Speaker 1: and NATO summit produces any concrete burden sharing commitments or
Speaker 1: ends as a statement of intent without enforcement. Third, whether
Speaker 1: the Hormost toll dispute surfaces, is a formal sticking point
Speaker 1: in any resumed US around talks or stays as a
Speaker 1: background pressure campaign. The through line across all of it
Speaker 1: is the same. The US is pulling back selectively while
Speaker 1: expecting allies to compensate, and both Iran and European partners
Speaker 1: are calculating how seriously to take that. Thanks for listening,
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