Speaker 1: All right, welcome in time for total basis. It's Wednesday.
That means we've got a full slate. That means we've
got day baseball. A lot to talk about here. If
you're new, we go for an hour all major League baseball.
Three picks, but really a deep dive, a lot of
analysis here, So welcome in. If you've been here all year,
appreciate you guys grinding it out with us. We won
the parlay yesterday. We're back ahead on the parlays. We
will have another one for you by the end of
the show today. Brian Leonard, we got to start with
the Yankees. Astros think that the panel kind of liked
the Yankees last night. They get it done. There's another
game today, and there was a situation last night where
a pitcher very possibly may have thrown at his own
catcher out of frustration. So I've also interested in the
chats take on that because I think it was as
cut and dry, one of the most intentional things I've
ever seen. And then you've got these two guys like
almost like they committed a crime, trying to cover it
up after the game, like coordinating their stories and saying
some of just the most non just just nonsense. Jaysar
Salazer said, well, it's too many Yankee fans in the stadium.
Excuse me, Like what what? There's so many Yankee fans
that you can't hear your pitch. Com I must have
pushed the wrong button. Haven't done that all year, So
you did it the pitch after giving up a Grand
Slam when you guys argued about the pitch. Very interesting
to see what the chat has to say. If you
want to weigh in on that, go ahead. But also
we got to talk Yankees astros because there's a there's
a baseball game today and who knows what.
Speaker 2: That did inside the clubhouse.
Speaker 1: Just a very interesting situation ahead of a huge game
in Houston this after tonight.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it definitely is, and I'm thankful for the Yankees yesterday.
That was our big winner for our clients. Four percent
play a tremendous runout of four and five percent plays.
We're now number two for the last seven days overall
and number one for the last thirty days. So it's
been a grind. I don't put a lot of plays,
but we're back up there where I feel that we
should be. We're looking at the Yankees in Houston here
Warren against Alexander Warren and the Yankees about a one
to twenty five favorite total of nine. I watched that
game and I saw that pitch, and there's no doubt
in my mind that he did that on purpose. That's
all I got to say. It could be wrong, but
I doubt it.
Speaker 1: I'm just scrolling the comments that come in on the
screen as they come in as you break down Yankees
astros for today.
Speaker 3: I've been doing this for a long time, and I
don't buy into conspiracy theories. That was clearly on purpose. Okay,
Will Warren four point three o era four point three,
eight expected one point four all whip been a little
bit up and down so far. His extension is great
eighty second percentile walk or struck out right sixty eighth,
but pretty much everything else is in the lower half
of the league. This is a guy who throws five pitches.
He's mostly the four seemer and he throws it less
than the league average. He's at ninety three point two.
The gavage from Ready is ninety five. So he's not
a guy im running out and looking to back in
the most situations. Houston going with Jason Alexander who continues
to kind of flummes me a little bit his his season.
He's got a four point six one ERA, four point
seven to two expected, one point three to seven whip.
The only thing he's better than league average in really
is his ground ball ray sixty six percent hele But
yet his numbers, he continues to get wins. He continues
to goraes four and one on the season. You know,
obviously wins don't don't tell much, but still four and
one on the season. But with the four point sixty
one array, his numbers are ugly. If you take a
look at his base numbers third percent hele Chase rates
six percent. How hard here rate? But he keeps his
team in the game for some reason. Throws five pitches
basically his sinker and is a change for what he
uses what he do like his four His four seamer
only throws ninety two miles an hour. I only throw
that ten percent of the time. So he's been coached
up pretty well. He's getting the best of what he has.
Problem is, I don't think he has a lot here.
My first glance at this would be the over we're
looking at. Basically right now, we're looking at the nine
and it's a he's a decent hitters ballparks, it's places
more neutral, but there's a lot of Yankees have a
lot of power, and Houston knows how to pull. And
if you pull to left field, if you get ahead
of the pitch, which is the big thing that's you know,
the Crawford boxes are there, and that's what Houston is
known for. That's why they brought in a few players
in the offseason they could do that. So I kind
of went the over in this one. I prefer the
offense is better than the defenses. Even though Houston is
not hit well over the last month or so, they're
barely holding on. They're winning three to two ball games.
But with these two pitchers on the mound, I kind
of like the over.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I won my five dollars play. Yesterday I had
the Mets. I went with McLain against Tigers and that
came out all right for me. Swept MLB two and oh.
I don't think two and oh you should say sweep
though I think it should be at least three. But
when two and o anyway, And I do have my
spreadsheet with all my picture projections available for free download
at my page at wagytalk dot com. So go check
that out regarding this game. Yeah, that was just a
that was that was a jerk move on Valdez part.
He did that on purpose. He's a jerk move. You
could see it on his face. He was ticked off.
Pictures and catchers have a special relationship.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 4: Some teams actually changed the catcher for one game just
to suit the picture. You know, they have a special relationship.
And Valdez just a jerk. Good picture, but absolute jerk.
I don't think it's gonna affect the team in today's game,
though it'll probably affect him when he pitched next time.
But they'll probably switch the catcher next time he pitches.
But like Brian said, Alexander not a really good pitcher,
but the numbers really like him. I mean, he does
have a really good walk to strike out ratio, and
he did go six innings and shut the Yankees out
for zero runs in his was it a month ago,
but that was in New York. So today it's at
Houston and Will Warren has has a real discrepancy between
his home and away numbers. Pretty bad road pitcher. Five
plus e are on the road against Houston. No sample size,
so can't really count that Alexander has good numbers against
these Yankees. But that's mainly because he just pitched six
shutout innings against him in New York. I don't think
he's gonna be that lucky this time. Well, I don't
know if i'll call it luck, but he had a
good game. I don't think he'll have a good game
this time though, I agree with Brian it would be
over nothing for me here. You need both sides of
contribute to and over and two days ago. I'd be
concerned about Houston their bats, but they did have a
couple games where their bats woke up, not yesterday per se,
but a couple games before that. So I think their
bats will wake up here today. I think they can
hit Warren. I would go with an over here as well.
Speaker 1: A couple comments before I get into my breakdown. First
great call in the met yesterday TV. I won my
five dollars play as well on the Pirates. But if
you want to see something nasty and just a good
image of why Nolan MacLean is as good as he is,
go to my Twitter. I tweeted Rob Friedman's post of
him tunneling his pitches, and it is very impressive. The
armslaught and where the ball comes out on the sweeper
and then the pitch that moves the other way is
almost identical, and they end up nowhere near each other.
And it's probably why he has been virtually unhittable since
coming up. So great call there. Second thing, someone in
the chat said, Triggs gotta lay off the twisted teas.
I didn't even know twisted teas still existed. I didn't
realize that twisted tea's is like the og that's like
an oh.
Speaker 2: I remember in a couple of those when I was
in college. Think I've probably been It's probably been about
ten years, Brian, since I've had a twisted tea, and
it was like a tall boy from the gas station.
I just just don't drink as much anymore.
Speaker 1: The third thing, and I'll tie this back into this game,
is I will say, like just one more common about
the interaction between Valdez and Salazar. You can't tell me
that there's not gonna be guys in that clubhouse that
have opinions on the matter.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't care like there are gonna be guys in
that clubhouse that that lean one way or to the
other based on what happened, and I don't. I don't
see how in any way, shape or form, that that's
a good thing for Houston going in going into this game. Now,
I'll go back to what I talked about yesterday for
a minute. I think the Yankees might be coming. I
said I was gonna want to find a way to
play in this series. I passed on the game yesterday
proved to be a great spot to do, so I
don't dislike the spot today. I think you're paying a
little bit of a worse price, but you know, minus
won twenty five, it's still pretty reasonable. Now, Will Warren's
a guy that's been very hot and cool, super inconsistent.
When he's bad, he's bad. When he's good, he can
be pretty good. But you know he's he's got a
nice fastball, good movement, locates it, you know, reasonably well.
When when he locates it, well, it's good. When he doesn't,
he gets in trouble. So I still lean toward the
Yankees here, and I think that the I don't know
if this will be like a play for me or
even one I consider it was on a list for
me of about eleven games today, so I really have
some pairing gown to do.
Speaker 2: But I'll sort of double down on what I said yesterday.
Speaker 1: I think the Jays are going to have a heck
of a time trying to hold off this Yankee team.
They just it just feels like the Yankees are clicking.
They're not making some of the same mistakes they made
to cost them games a month ago. They have a
one Their run differential is plus one hundred and forty
right now. It's got to be one of the At
a quick glance, it's got to be one of the
best marks in the league. The team they're chasing down
that now only has a two and a half game
lead on the division, only fifty eight and having big
time bullpen issues. Hate to say it, I'm kind of
in on the Yankees right now. Could only play the
Yankees here in this game.
Speaker 4: Go ahead and making a quick comment about locker room stuff.
Catchers are the most popular guys in any locker room.
Everybody loves their catcher every team. I've never seen an
exception to it. So, like you said, if it's gonna
be split, it's gonna be split in favor of the
catcher because everyone loves the catcher in every clubhouse.
Speaker 1: Such an odd dynamic here because it's a young catcher
that's unproven against a pitcher that's been around for a while,
so it's as good.
Speaker 2: I don't know, I just I.
Speaker 1: Don't see that that creating decent, like good vibes in
the Astros locker room, whereas like the vibes are high
for the Yankees right now, they're playing as good as
they've played season. I would have no interest trying to
step in front of the Yankees here. Turbuckle Tommy says
that Pirates plus one and a half was a beautiful
thing as well.
Speaker 2: Wish I would have just played at Moneyline.
Speaker 1: I'm actually thinking about going back to Pirates plus one
and a half today. Yeah, I'm kind of thinking the
same thing too, except I don't know that the bullpen
sets up quite as nicely today. Obviously, we had the
benefit of getting Chandler, even though he wasn't as sharp
as we've seen him in bulk previously. But I'm with you, Tommy,
I'm still thinking about like and I'll probably be here
all month. Pirates, I think are very undervalued team right now.
Once again, the plus one and a half line. Get
your minus one ten, minus one fifteen, very playable number.
This is another one that's on my very long list today.
Brian Leonard, any interest in going against the Dodgers after
an outright loss here?
Speaker 3: Yes, we've got the tiny listed in Tiny's from what
I've been reading, is going to be art today. But
when I go to the Statas page, they don't have
a tiny list. They don't they have it blanks. So
I can't comment too much on that. I will say
that I agree Pittsburgh. I thought Ashcraft's a guy I
want to bet on right now. And although Atani's is
a great pitcher, he's been very good and he's extending
his innings. H you still take a look at that
what he's done, and is he really deserved to be
that big of a road favorite here? You know, you
mentioned the ren differentials earlier, and yes, the Yankees are
number two on the season and still following Milwaukee, and
the Dodgers aren't even up one hundred runs anymore. So
it's a game that obviously it means a little very
little to the Dodgers, and you know, it always means
more of what the team plays. The Dodgers because they're
the champs, and you know, big salary teams. So I
kind of like Pittsburgh here too. I do like the
situation with Ashcraft on the Mount. He's been nothing but
great so far. Two point five eight ERA, three point
one seven expected, one point one point five whip. Take
a look at his techcast page, and really the worst
thing he has is his forty four percent tile extension.
You know this, this is a guy who's really coming
into his own throws five pitches, although his four seemery
throw second thirty two, slider thirty three, and his Curt
twenty that's really what he bases it mostly on. But
his past basketball is ninety six point nine miles an hour.
That's that's good. That's almost two miles an hour better
Major League Baseball averge. So yeah, I like I like
the Pirates here. I could play him plus the money,
or I could take him on the on the run
line here the total is only eight, so it's been
beat down from a little slightly bet down from eight
and a half hundred twenty to start it off. But yeah,
I like Pittsburg. You finally got to find a way
to bet Pittsburgh on this one. Maybe we played the
Dodgers team total line under, maybe we play Pittsburgh, but
maybe we play Pittsburgh plus one and a half. But
I have no problem playing on the Pirates. Say that's
a pretty good bed, I believe.
Speaker 4: Yeah, guys, I have an MLB play out today already.
I have not put a free play out yet, but
I will after the show plus one hundred and five
units in twenty twenty five, So go check out my
play I'm sure these guys will have a play out
as well. I'm gonna kind of say what I said yesterday,
numbers love the Pirates, but my heart, I just can't
do it because La has so much talent. They're just
not They're just not that bullpen now, and that bullpen
is just so bad. Every time the Dodgers get a lead,
you just know they're going to give it away.
Speaker 3: They you just know it.
Speaker 4: And even Trina was bad yesterday, which I didn't expect.
Then they got I mean, their bullpen is just a
mess right now. Pirates looked sharp. This is a cover
of the logo kind of thing. Pirates are hitting better,
their bullpens playing better, and their starting pitcher is pitching
better than Otani. I hate to say it, but one
thing about Otani, his strikeout prop six and a half
little high, I think, because we don't even know if
he's going to finish five innings. Six and a half
is high. But when you look at how he's been
pitching this season, he's striking out thirteen guys per nine.
Pittsburgh's striking out nine per nine, So I don't know
if he's going to get to seven. It seems pretty
high to me. So that's one way I might think
about going. Looking at Braxton Ashcuff, Yes, he's pitching really well.
Speaker 2: They slid him.
Speaker 4: From a relief role to a starter role, and he's
been the starter for looks like three starts now. He's
gone five plus innings, five or more innings in every start,
and he's only given up two earned That's pretty good.
But one of those starts was the Rockies. He faced
the Cardinals, very average hitting team, and then he faced
the Cup which is a pretty good team. So yeah,
he's been tested. I think three starts is enough to
say he's a legit, pretty decent, legit pitcher. Will he
get blown up today? It's possible because the Dodgers are angry,
and even when they lose, they seem to score seven
runs no matter what. So I don't know this could
be a high scoring game. I think Otani strikeouts under
six and a half would be a decent play, and
I think over again would be a decent play.
Speaker 1: I like the Pirates again here. I don't know if
I'll throw it in the parlay. I don't know if
it'll make my client card, but it's certainly close. You
talked about Braxton Ashcraft. He was always a starter that
was like, this is like what the Pirates, I guess
are doing these days. Like Baba Chandler who came in
relief yesterday, always a starter. They bring him up, they
put him in the bullpen. Braxton Ashcraft was always a
starter at Triple A. They brought him up, had him
throw some long relief. I don't know if this is
like something that they're doing from like a developmental standpoint.
Speaker 2: I don't hate it.
Speaker 1: Certainly helped Ashcraft because he kind of I feel like,
got refocused a little bit because prior to prior to
Ashcraft being called up, he had a couple of shakey outings.
So maybe it's just something they're doing from a developmental
standpoint to see how how guys respond and why not
right like they're out of it, so like they had
they had the ability to experiment a little bit. But
I think what you've seen the last couple of times
out is what Braxton Ashcraft is probably gonna be if this,
if this organization didn't have a Paul Skins, didn't have
up a Chandler, you know, we'd probably be talking about
Braxton Ashcraft in the same sort of vein that Mets
fans are looking at, like a Nolan MacLean or someone
like that.
Speaker 2: Like he is that type of prospect.
Speaker 1: It's just he's been buried a little bit because the Pirates,
I think Brian Leonard likes to say they've been so
bad so long. They've got all these good young pitchers
now because they draft went in the first round every
year and they and they've done a good job at
drafting pitching. So I think ashcrap is the real deal.
What I'll be looking for a couple things. So the
other thing that's really important here, Pirates keep playing good ball.
I think they're now nine to three in their last
twelve games, and they're actually starting to hit a little bit,
which is something the Pirates really hadn't done all year.
I go back to you a couple of recent call ups,
Camdevany up. Recently they brought Nick York up. These were
guys I was waiting for them to call up. Maybe
we'll see Rafael Floraz sooner than later. He's the catcher
that they grab from the Yankees when they traded David Bedner.
I think he's going to be really good, great big guy,
like he's going to be a right now what they
have one of the worst offensive catchers in the history
of Major League Baseball and Henry Davis. I know he
doesn't play every day, but like man, I'd love to
see Floras at the bottom of that order, just making
the Pirates better. The guy I'll be looking for today
to be called up, which might put me over the
edge here is justin Lawrence. He's when he's healthy, he's
one of their best bullpen arms. He threw three times
at Buffalo last week and in Triple A. He's on
a rehab He's now been rehabbing for a month. Again,
no reason. They're kind of in this spot similar to
the Orioles, like we talked about, well, where there's no
reason to rush guys back. So he spent the entire
month of August rehabbing, and I think the only reason
they hadn't called him up yet was the command was
a little shaky. Had walked a couple of guys batting
average against in the miners this month. For Lawrence won
twenty five. It's kind of what I expect from him.
And the last time out he threw all strikes, no walks.
He kind of looked like it was like, Okay, that's
what we expected to see. That was Saturday, So I
wouldn't be at all surprised, especially after yesterday where they
used some relief arms. If he's added to the roster,
and I think I could get behind that ashcraft Lawrence.
Maybe one or two other bullpen guys probably back on
the pirates here, and by the end of the show
they may even be my parlay leg. But yeah, my
opinion hasn't changed a whole lot from yesterday.
Speaker 2: All right, Duffel, he says, did you all talk about
the fish yet? He likes him today? This is an
early one.
Speaker 1: Brian Leonard Marlins nationals Uri Perez had a rough go of.
Speaker 2: It, to say the least.
Speaker 1: Over the weekend, he came to City Field in a
game that I think I actually ruined the parlay with
the under in that game, which has never lost so quickly.
I don't think there's ever been an under in one
of our parlays that has killed a game so quickly
than last Friday, when Uri Perez just got absolutely blown
up by the Mets. Much easier task for him today
in my opinion, not that anything's easy, but you know,
the Mets are so hot right now. Now he turns
around heads to DC to face a Nationals team that
enters play at fifty five and eighty three. So, Brian Leonard,
does Uri Perez bounce back today? Do you have any
interest in taking the Marlins this afternoon? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I was on that with you on the under. That
one was blown up early. It's nice when that happens,
better than a stat the sweat one out. We're gonna
lose him as we'll get it over early. Plenty of
other games to watch Perez against Parker, who continues to
get innings for Washington. They've lost their best player, last
pitcher now for probably the season, so there's no reason
to bring him back. So this Washington staff is even
worse than it was before, and there's not a lot
of talent to volley pitch well yesterday, he's the one.
He's the one guy that I would look to play
out of this Washington rotation. But Perez against Parker Perez
is about a one anywhere from one thirty to one
thirty five favorite here total of nine. I thought at
first glance, I thought all the same thing. I thought
that the line was pretty cheap when you're taking a
look at Miami right here. My concern is, since he
did get blown up so bad in that game yes
last time out, is it possibly an injury? We will see.
He'd cruised around so well before that, but he comes
in with a four point oh four era, a three
point one nine expected one point four whip, its ground
bawl rate only in the eleventh percentile, all great, twenty
eight percentile, harder at twenty eighth. A lot of that
game when he was just coming back, and it taken
him a while to get his accuracy down and fine
get his pitches tones. So it looked really good until
last time out. I'm hoping it's a it's a one
game thing, because there's really no reason for Miami to
pitch him if he's injured. Definitely, no reason the pitch
him was they're not going to the playoffs, so hopefully
he's not injured. If it's not, then then they're a
pretty good h pretty good bet today. The problem is,
I don't know if I want to trust my money
with him. As you mentioned, a pretty good looking card today.
I think there's a lot of value here. Mitchell Parker
four point nine four era A four point eight nine expected,
one point four to seven whip. It's extension. He six
foot four is in the eighty six percentile. Everything else stinks.
It's it's really ridiculous here. He's got a first percentle
hard hit rate, first percentile average EXA velocity, second percent
ile expected betting the average, third percent ile expected GIRA,
fourth percentile straight percent No, I'm not betting on Washington
anytime he pitches. At least they're gonna have to give
me a whole lot better line than what this is.
And I'm not going to take it one fifteen to
a peint twenty on Washington. This one, it's either Miami
for me and hopefully I'm I'm not scared off by
Perez and but that's the way I would play it.
And if it's something that maybe if he comes out
in that first inning it looks like his old self,
maybe you can get you can join it later on
and get it in live betting and get a similar
number here. So that's what I'll be looking for here,
maybe maybe a live bet because I am concerned a
little bit about the injury because it was so bad
last time out. That's the way I'll treat this one.
Speaker 4: Thanks guys for the live comments. Some of you said
you're downloading my uh my pitcher projections. Go ahead and
get it. It's free today. And if you do download
it and take a look, you'll see that Eurie Perez
has really good numbers against these National batters in his
in his career. I think Mitchell Parker removed the Colorado
Rockies pitching staff. I think Mitchell Parker could be the
worst starting pitcher in Major League Baseball who gets regular starts.
I mean, sent Ittella is awful and so yeah, yeah,
well Cinctela came in in the what the first inning
when Freedlan got.
Speaker 2: Looked good.
Speaker 4: I was watching that game. Censitela actually pitched really really
well in that game. He looked great.
Speaker 2: So I was kind of surprised.
Speaker 4: Maybe he should be a middle reliever because he looked
pretty good. But anyway, so Mitchell Parker allowed thirty one
earned runs in his last eight starts. That's not good.
He allows a lot of runs and he's just an
awful pitcher. The thing is, though, he has good numbers
against these guys in his career. So I'm a little
torn here. According to my rankings, Washington right now is
batting twenty eighth out of thirty in current form. Eury
Perez has really good numbers against him. I would either
take Miami or I would take the Nationals team total
in the first five it's two and a half. It's
a little juice to the under. I think it's minus
one fifty to the under Unpinnacle. I don't know what
it is on other sites, but that seems like a
decent play to me. I think I don't think they're
gonna get three earned off Eury Perez in five innings,
so I might go that way. I might go Miami.
We'll see. I mean the game starts in what three
or four hours, so we'll see.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm interested in the Marlins here, so I'll speak
on I guess Perez and the injury, if there was
any inkling that he was hurt, he would not be
pitching in this game. And the reason I'm gonna say
that is they were very, very cautious with him earlier
this year when he was rehaving his injury. He spent
god two months in the minors, like there was and
I even remember kind of talking to someone that that's
pretty close to the Marlins team at the time, there
was zero interest to rush him back whatsoever. And right
now there are so many deserving arms at Jacksonville that
are at least like like deserving of a chance, that
have pitched well all year, even if they're like middle
relief guys, bullpen guys. There's just no way they're going
to send him out there. If he was even like
a little bit hurt. They would they would bring They
would bring like Morgan McSweeney up. They would bring one
of the six relievers that have been really good at
Jacksonville up. Like, There's just so many other options that
I just I just could not see a scenario where
he unless he just straightens up, straight up lied to
the staff, like unless he was just like didn't disclose
anything that's the only way he's he's that would go
unnoticed and that he'd be sent out there today. So
I think, and I watched every pitch of that game,
I think the Mets are just on another level right
now in terms of locked in at the plate. I
think they blew him up, and it is what it
is sometimes that happened City Field Friday night lights were
a little too bright for him, in my opinion, So
I actually kind of like him to bounce back here.
I'm gonna echo what TV said, Mitchell Parker not someone
I want to back.
Speaker 2: National's bullpen, not something I want to back.
Speaker 1: Terrible collection of pitchers might be as bad as you're
gonna find in the league right now, So it would
be Marlins are past. My only concern with the Marlins
right now. I don't know if I love this lineup
anymore like I did earlier in the year. Xavier Edwards,
I believe, went out with an injury the other day,
Kyle Stowers has been out with an injury.
Speaker 2: Yes, you have Norby back. Yes, there's still still a lot.
Speaker 1: To like there in terms of like young talent, but
like they went ice cold against Andrew Alvarez the other day. Like,
I think it's gonna be a very hit or miss
Marlin's offense, and so you're gonna have to kind of
deal with that. I think for another ten cents, I
might I might be down to deal with it. Here
minus won thirty minus won thirty five was a little
bit pricey. But if this somehow got down to like
the minus one fifteen minus won twenty range, I think
I could definitely take the Marlins.
Speaker 2: And I wouldn't put anyone off taking the Marlins. It's
just for me.
Speaker 1: As I've said, I've got eleven leads today and so
I'm trying to like pare it down. Do I want
to lay a dollar thirty five when I could potentially
bet something else that's a little bit better price.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure, but yeah, I think Marlins are passed
for me here. Colin Gregory, Yes, we just walked it
off in the KT game. Let's go.
Speaker 1: That was a crazy game in Korea this morning. They
choked away a huge lead. They just wanted to walk off.
So we're fired up about that. Let's go, Travis, Yeah,
let's go to This is another day game. I'm interested
to see what people have to say about this one.
Because the Mets are blowing up. Just about everyone TV
was on the Mets yesterday. That was a win, and
that was a way easier win than I thought it
was going to be because the Mets just did whatever
they wanted. Crooked numbers everywhere. I mean, Brian, you mentioned
this yesterday. The top of that order is so locked
in right now. And those are guys that like when
those guys are locked in Soto Windor, I mean, these
are not just anyone These are like all star NDP
caliber type players. When those guys are locked in, would
you even consider going against the Mets here?
Speaker 3: Mets Holmes against Manes going for Detroit, and we're looking
at basically a one fifteen favorite for the Mets total
of nine, or you can get the eight and a
half over at an extended price there. When I'm looking
at this game, Clay Holmes is now pitched one hundred
and forty two and a third inning, so the last
two years there was one hundred and twenty six combined.
I'm still worried about him in this regard. I started
the year really well, and now was there is up
to three point six to zero. His expecteds four point
three five his whip is one point three to one.
That's about what he's had in his career, so I'm
not too worried about that. But his round ball rate
is great, ninety fourth percentile. But this is a ballpark
in which there's not many home runs here, so that
kind of evens it out a little bit. And if
he's playing in you know, Cincinnati, one of those ballparks
that get a lot of home runs, Yankee Stadium, something
like that, I would love him better. But to lose that,
that's with that being your main thing, and spare barrel
it's seventy first percentle so everything else pretty much is
below league average. We're looking at his whiff for eight
twenty first percentile, strike got right twenty second, walk grade
thirty first. So I really liked him earlier in the season.
I like him less as the year goes on. Casey
Miz just the opposite. Coming into the season, I really
didn't care for him, but he's pitched better than I thought.
So comes in with a three point nine five, three
point seven to seven expected one point three to one.
WHAI up a little high in that regard, but it
fits in with his career. His extension eighty eight percentile,
walk great eighty first percentile, and then everything else is
about league average or worse. So we've got two pictures
here that I can go against in fate, try to
fade here. Total of nine. It did open eight and
a half, so it's been up slightly. But that's the
way I would take a look at it is look
for the offenses. Detroit's obviously got a Detroit's one of
the better offenses that goes from one to one to nine.
They got enough guys to fill in there. They got
some lot of guys that are injured right now, but
I like their offense overall. Of THEO don't have fantastic players,
they are all pretty solid, pretty solid major league hitters.
And as you mentioned again from yesterday we talked about it,
the Mets are just so hot right now. They are
burning hot. And with these two pitches on the mountain,
I'll look for the over nine and I think that's
a pretty decent play in afternoon baseball.
Speaker 4: So on my free downloadable sheet, I do have Clay Holmes.
I always want to say Chris Holmes because the guitarist
for Watts. When I see Ce Holmes, I just automatically
say Chris Holmes. But anyways, so Clay Holmes. Yeah, he's
got good numbers against these guys, but he compiled a
lot of those numbers when he was a relief pitcher,
and it wasn't this year, so and it was with
a different team, So those numbers can't be one hundred
percent trusted. But I do trust him a little bit.
He's not a big strikeout guy, but I looked at
his strikeout prop three and a half seemed really low.
You'll see on my numbers, I'm projecting him at four
point seven. Granted, that might be skewed a little because
most of those strikeouts he got against I took a
deeper look, and I think last year against the Tigers,
when he pitched for a different team, one inning he
struck two guys out, and another inning he struck three
guys out, So he got five strikeouts and two innings.
So his numbers are little inflated there, but he is
capable of striking these guys out at that rate. Eight
point seven to nine is one projection and four point
seven is another projection. I think four point seven is
more around where we should be. His strikeouts is three
and a half, So I think over three and a
half strikeouts would be a decent play here. Mets are
batting a lot better than the Tigers right now, but
the Tigers have the better bullpen and the starters are comparable,
So I don't think I'll be playing aside.
Speaker 1: My gut tells me this is going to be Clay
holmes last start for the Mets. I think this, so,
going back to what Brian said, the innings are getting
up there, but more importantly, I think he's going to
be the key to the Mets playoff success because in
the playoffs, you have to have a guy that can
come in in like the fifth inning when because remember
in the playoffs you're facing elite lineups, you have to
have a guy that can come in the fifth inning
when a guy's about to turn the lineup over for
like a third time, and then like lock it down
for like two three innings so you don't burn every
leverage arm that you have. And I think right now
the Mets are sitting there like, all right, we're in
the playoffs. We're five and a half back of the Phillies,
so it's probably not realistic that we win the division.
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll change her.
Speaker 1: I just don't think the Mets mindset is let's go
all out to try to catch the Phillies.
Speaker 2: I think if it happens, they'll be happy with it.
Speaker 1: But like I really think that they're trying to spread
the innings around right now, set themselves up for the playoffs.
Why do I bring that up because I think ultimately
they're going to move homes to the bullpen.
Speaker 2: Why does that matter here?
Speaker 1: Because they're in position to tell Holmes, hey, you're gonna start,
but like, go leave it all out there.
Speaker 2: We don't need six innings out of you today. Why
is that? Because yesterday they didn't use anyone?
Speaker 1: They use two throwaway guys right stand up right now,
they might as well send to the move like he's useless,
they don't need him that he probably won't be on
the playoff roster. And I think Herget was the other
guy that came in. He's a triple A guy like
he's he's not on the playoff roster either. So they're
still sitting on Justin Hagenman, who hasn't pitched in a
couple of days. Great long relief option, you know, I
mean he's he's hit or missed, but he's been good
at the big league level. And if he's if he
is in there and throwing the ball, well he'll go
two or three innings and then you've got all your
leverage guys. And and right now the Mets are playing
so good, I don't think they're gonna like and they've
got a day off tomorrow, so like, there's really no
reason to not unload the clip here, if you will.
At the end of this game, they got all the
bullpen arms, and and I'll go back to the beginning
of the season, and I feel like I've said this
at times throughout the years. Throughout the year so far,
this Mets bullpen should be it should be one of
the best bullpens in the league. I don't know how
they've pitched themselves out of that scenario.
Speaker 2: And I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know what's wrong with Hellesley and some of
these other guys on paper, and at their the top
of their potential, this should be like a top three
bullpen in Major League Baseball. My gut tells me they
could trend in that direction going toward the playoffs. I
just think having McLean and Tong there to fill starters Roles,
maybe getting Holmes back to the bullpen. I really think
that this could be like an elite relief unit. And
today you're gonna have Holmes, who's been pretty solid. I
think he's been fine, and you're likely going to have
him back by every top Mets reliever here because why not.
They can't you have a day often then you have
a series coming up with the Reds. It would be
very big if the Mets can grab another win here.
I'll go back to what the chat has kind of said.
You know, the Tigers have the luxury of going through.
Speaker 2: The motions right now.
Speaker 1: I thought we would see them play a little bit
better in September because other guys are getting a chance,
but they kind of have the luxury of going through
the motions the next couple of weeks. I don't know
how you can play against the Mets in this spot.
They're another one that's on my short list today.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I'm gonna throw out the next
game because we're halfway through the show. None of us
putt but that point out what you pointed out there
is looking past. What a lot of people do is
they don't pay attention to what's going to happen tomorrow,
and a lot of these games in the game I
want to talking about has a similar effect. So that
was a great point in putting out that they're not
going to play tomorrow and these guys haven't pitched for
the last two days. Great job on that, and that
if you take anything the viewers take anything out of
this on the show. That's the one point that's very important.
Take a look at tomorrow's schedules to who's supposed to
pitch and what they've got going on. I am going
to use for my parlay play here. I'm gonna take
a look at that San Francisco game that helped us
in the parlay yesterday. Thank you, Brandon. Robby Ray's going
to pitch for San Francisco and Colorado's got Marquez going
right right now is about a two dollars favorite with
a total of eleven. I like the over ind this game.
Robbie Ray is not pitching well right now. And it's
not that he's not pitching well. He's also struggling mightily
with his velocity. The list is now two games in
a row in which he's been like three miles per
hour down on his velocity. And it's really starting to show.
Keep in mind, this guy last year through thirty innings.
The year before, he threw three innings, So he's you know,
he's been a work cards in his career in twelve seasons,
but he has not thrown this many innings in a while. Veloss,
he's going down, he's going through retired arm phase. I
don't want to bet him. I don't want to bet
on him in Colorado. I'll tell you that three point
one ad or a three point sixty four expected one
point one six whip, but that was all earlier, earlier
in the season. I take a look at his average
ex velosi eleventh percentile ur hit rate, eighteenth percentile ground
ball rate twenty six, so he throws a lot of
fly balls. I think Colorado's gonna have some success in
this game, and I want to fail to Robbie Ray.
The problem is Marquez six point one four ERA five
point five to two expected. He's coming back from an injury,
by the way, but that was earlier in this last
year and twenty twenty three very similar twenty innings and
twenty twenty three four last year. Now he's at one
hundred and two already and he's not even in a
good one hundred and two this year. It look at
the stackass page, it's blue all over. There's nothing. His
fastball velocity fifty ninth percentile, that's his best thing. Everything
else single digits and just about everything. I'm not going
to go through it in Borria. And as was just
pointed out in the last game, neither one of these
teams play tomorrow. So normally a lot of times you
look at the getaway day. Well, we've got a similar
total in this game. And we got Marquez who's been
horrendous all year. We've got Ray who's been horrendous the
last two weeks, both dealing with pitch counts that are
really high on the season as opposed to the last
two years. I love this over in this game. I
think over eleven is really solid beout here and I'll
use that for my free play today.
Speaker 4: I would agree with Brian on that that Robbie Ray
is not exactly a great pitcher against these batters. As
a matter of fact, he gets tagged pretty good to
eighty nine average against in his career. It's not great.
He's not the dealer that he was earlier in the season.
He's fading a little. Marquez also doesn't have great numbers
against the San Francisco Batters in eight to twenty one
ops against in his career. Add to the fact that
not all those games were in Colorado and this one is,
so I definitely would not argue against an over there.
I have taken San Francisco for two days in a row,
but I'm not going to take them today because for
some odd reason, it's so hard to win three games
in a row in this league. And hey, San Francisco
is probably going to win it because they're the better team,
but I'm not willing to put money on it today.
I was the last two days, but today I'm not.
Speaker 1: I mean my number, I make this twelve and a
half on the total, so my numbers certainly agree with
an over of eleven TV. I'm with you, like I
bet the Giants was the best bet for me on
Monday yesterday. I loved the spot for them. It was
just there was no value. But if I was fine
with you put it in the parlay that got the win.
If the Rockies were going to steal one, it would
be here. But the reason I will sort of, you know,
agree with Brian say the way I would go with
the over. They got two batters out of Kyle Freeland
last night. That was their starter. And not only is
he their starter, he's a guy that typically if there's
one guy that sometimes eats innings up for them, it's
it's Freeling. He lasted two hitters before he got thrown
out of the game, ended up using sense of TAILA
fine with that, but still's Viali. Hill is the one
guy I really liking that bullpench. Jayden Hill I think
is actually going to be a pretty good reliever. He
goes two innings last night, and so again you're gonna
either you're looking at.
Speaker 2: Marquez Rockies relievers. There's got to be some runs there.
Speaker 1: If the Rockies can contribute at all, which Brian thinks
they will, this one should soar over. I'm with you,
the over makes a lot of sense. Colin I want.
He says that Mets reminds me of the twenty seventeen Astros.
I was gonna say the whole time I'm sitting here thinking,
reminds me of the twenty sixteen Indians. Brian, do you
remember who the MVP of the Alcs was in twenty
sixteen top of your head, MVP.
Speaker 3: Want ahead for lunch?
Speaker 2: Yesterday the MVP.
Speaker 1: Of the twenty sixteen ALCS was Andrew Miller, and I
think Clays.
Speaker 2: I think Clay Holmes could be that guy for the Mets.
Speaker 1: Just going back to that that last game on this game, Brian,
I agree with you. I'm all about the over here
and I love that you picked that for the parlay.
All right, let's uh, let's go to I had a
game I was going to go to here and I
lost it.
Speaker 2: TV.
Speaker 1: Do you know what you want to put in the
parlay yet? Because I don't so I'm still kind of
thinking about a couple of things we've already talked about already.
Or do you have a game that you want to
talk about that we haven't touched on yet.
Speaker 4: Let me let me do this, let me go back.
Did did someone take Miami in the parlay?
Speaker 2: Not yet?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Okay, but I think I I think I will uh
give me Miami Marlins in the first five. I think
that would be a good play. I think it's minus
one thirty right now. I think that's a decent play.
I'm gonna fade Mitchell Parker.
Speaker 1: All right, so we'll we'll we'll go back to that
at the end of the show, since we already talked
that game. We have a couple of people I'm gonna
go to this game. We'll we'll get that at the
end of the show when we lock in the Parlay
Russell deck in like half the chat now that I'm
seeing it, wants to talk Braves Cubs. So Brian Leonard,
Bryce eld Bryce Ell do our favorite four A pitcher
right here on the mound against Kate Horton, who's actually
been really good.
Speaker 2: For the Cubs.
Speaker 1: I I think he's had a great rookie season so far.
I think he's sort of been like anything that they
could have could have wanted him to be at this
point when he was sort of like highly touted coming
up through the ranks. The other thing I'll point out
about the Cubs, I mean, are they like they're really
trying to catch lightning in the bottle? They grabbed Aaron Savalle.
I saw Austin Gomber down at Triple A pitching for
Iowa last night, but they must have signed him off,
you know, when the Rockies released him the other day.
Speaker 2: So talk about that for a minute. Do the Cubs
have enough pitching, and and it's hort and a guy
that you would lay a dollar fifty you would in
a spot like this.
Speaker 3: First of all, just for Brandon. And keep in mind
he said one thirty, it's one forty five at this point.
I don't know if that changes anything or not, Okay,
Elder and Horton. Horton's about one fifty and a total
of eight and a half, slightly to the under in
this one. And Bryce Elder a big punching bag of
us all season long. But he memory serves me right.
He's been pitching a little bit better lately. Five point
eight five ERA, four point nine eight expected, one point
four eight whip And that's where he gets in trouble.
His grand ball rate's good, in fact, is very good
at eighty six percentile, but all his numbers are in
the blue on stack cast, none of them single digits.
So he's just generally bad. But he's not a guy
I want. And he only throw us four pitches. If
you are a starter in major of the baseball, the
more pitches you have the better. And he's because you
see a lot of these younger as ms Arrowski and
some of these other guys that come out and they've
only got three pitches. Some even comes to the majors
with two, and they're so good on those two pitches
they can get away with it, but not very often.
So Elider is a guy usually try to fade. Kate
Horten is a guy that he's He's been good, but
he hasn't been great, and he's been a pretty highly
tied to prospect for years for the Cubs. Comes in
not a nice nine to four record, of course, comes
are a good baseball team, but two point nine two ERA,
but four point oh four expected one point one to
nine whip. I would think at this point the rest
of the season he would play more towards they expected
than the actual barrel red. He's only in the fourteenth
percentile extension, twenty six strike up percent, thirty second. Everything
I'm really on his statcast page is mediocre. It's not bad,
it's not good. It's just right down the middle of
an average major league baseball pitcher. He does throw five
different pitches, so the the Sinkers only throwing five percent
of the time. It's for Sanery throws fifty percent of
the time. And I'm not a huge fastball guy. If
you ever watched this before, especially when you don't have
a great fastball. Now, the average for a right hander
is ninety five. He's in ninety five point seven. It's
been enough to get him by right now. But in
the future he's gonna lose velocity and he doesn't have
enough of his other pitches that he throws enough, so
eventually he's going to have to expand a little bit.
But out of the two, yes, obviously I would prefer
him over Elder. And you're getting him in that one
to fifty range, that may be a little bit too
expensive for me. Chicago has not been playing well, and
I know they've got the better players, but that's probably
going to be something I'm gonna sit on the side for.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, the Cubs are just a better team. I mean,
I don't think anyone could argue with that. I mean,
Horton's been pitching well. Elder is just atrocious. He's awful,
and this Atlanta bullpen is even more awful. I got
him ranked twenty four out of thirty in Current Form.
That's just awful. Cubs, I got them ranked eleven for
bullpen in current Form.
Speaker 2: Hitting.
Speaker 4: I got them both pretty even, but even with the
hitting being even.
Speaker 2: I have the.
Speaker 4: Cubs ten points better than the Braves in this one.
Doesn't mean they're going to win by ten runs. It's
just on my scale. If it's ten or more points,
I'm comfortable taking a side if all the other things
pass the eye test. And I agree with Brian that
the Cubs are not playing well. So I'm very hesitant
to do this, But if I were about it, the
Cubs would be the only way to go for me.
Speaker 1: Same just no way I could, no way I could
take Bryce Elder at this point.
Speaker 2: I know he's pitched a little bit better, but like.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll go back to what I've been saying
about the Braves for weeks, like this, this is not
the team that I think is gonna play spoiler like
this is the Braves are the team that I think
got off the mat, had a nice month of August,
which I wasn't necessarily expecting. Like they have played pretty
good ball to this point, seven and three in their
last ten games, and yet there's still thirteen games back
of the wild Card, and there there's gonna be a
point in time where I think they just call it
a day, like I said it would be in September
at some point, because hey, like the Atlanta had a
pretty a pretty solid August and I'm sorry I read
that wrong. They're four and six in their last ten
and they lost. They've now lost back to back, so
it is so it's starting. In my opinion, I think
you're gonna see the Braves fade drastically this this month.
The reason I say that is they just don't have
so like I'm looking at two teams and the standings
that are that have the same record in the National League,
Braves Pirates. They're both six seventy seven. The Pirates have
all these young guys that are eager to get up
show what they can do. They want to get the experience,
and they actually have like highly rated, good young talent.
The Braves have veteran players who are not having great
seasons who thought that what they were signing up for
was was being on a team that was put potentially
gonna go to the playoffs and that have had like
guys like Akuna, Marcelo Zuna, like the Olsen, like these
type of guys have won before.
Speaker 2: So like there's just.
Speaker 1: How do you get out of the bed in the
morning if you're the Braves, right, you got to you
gotta go to work for the next three weeks.
Speaker 2: I think this team is ready to call it a season.
Speaker 1: And then you look at the Okay, so are they
gonna play the young guys? The Braves don't have those
young guys outside of like Drake Baldwin maybe I don't
even know who else I would consider like really good, young,
unproven talent on the Braves.
Speaker 2: They just don't have it. And Herston Waldrip's.
Speaker 1: Pretty good, you know, maybe a couple of pitchers, but
the Braves just don't have that type of talent right now.
So I think it's gonna be a bad month of
September for the Braves. Back to back losses already. I
think they take another loss here. Not sure I can
play that, but I think they take another loss here
to the Cubs, who I do think. You know, if
the Cubs come to play, they're gonna win this game.
I don't know how to put that. Any doesn't need
more sugarcoating than that. The Cubs show up with Horton here,
and they can and they have good at bats against
Bryce Eldert, they will score.
Speaker 2: They will win. It's that simple, all right. I want
to go to Brian.
Speaker 1: I know the game I want to talk about, and
I'll see if either of you talk me out of
this or agree with me.
Speaker 2: But I have an opinion in Angels Royals that will
likely close out our parlay. So let's talk about that game,
Angels Royals.
Speaker 1: I believe the Angels are gonna start Cayden Dana here,
who's been up a couple of times and has not
been very good, and it's probably burget Berger, Ryan Berger
for Burgett for the Royals who desperately need this one
two and a half out of the wild card and
they can't afford to lose games like this.
Speaker 2: So, Brian, Royal's Angels, how are you seeing this one?
Speaker 3: We're looking at? Burget is basically a one seventy five
favorite and a total of nine, And there's no way
the hell I'm laying one seventy five with Ryan Burgett.
Cayden Dana comes in, Kip in mind, this kid is
twenty one years old. He pitched last year for the Angels.
They brought him up through ten innings, as you mentioned,
did not go well. They brought him up twice this
year in a really for all it did not go well.
But if you've got a twenty twenty one year old
guy that's getting major league experience, that tells you what
they think of him. Overall, his numbers are ugly. I
won't get into all that, but this is a guy
I've been waiting to get up there and to get
a chance. So I'm looking any chance I get to
play Canaan Dan Cayden Dana. He's there currently their number
five draft pick or excuse me, prospect. But he's a guy,
he's the future of this pitching staff. I believe Ryan Bergett.
His numbers are great, two point sixty seven e r
A four point h nine unfortunately expected one point one
one web, but if you look at his stash cast page,
he's lower, a lower volume. If a scale of one
to ten from an average major league it would be five,
he would be a four. And yet he's gotten off
to this great start. And that's why this line is
so high. Along with Kansas City. The need factor, and
I always say, if a team is in the need factor,
the need to win this game, they're just not very good.
That's the whole point. They've had a whole season to
put themselves in this position. He's in the fourth percentile
ground ball rate, which is excellent in this ballpark. For
the most part, this year's there's been more home runs,
but normally it hasn't. But he hasn't been that good.
He's not as good as what he is. And you're
going up against kayd and Dana who's better than what
he has shown, and you're getting dollar fifty dollars fifty eight.
Come on, this is the one way you find a
way to play the Angels. So you don't play this game.
Speaker 4: I'll make this nice, short and sweet. I'm not going
to play the game because there's too many X factors.
The Royals rank higher in hitting in bullpen, but again,
too many unknown factors here, so I am not going
to play it. I'll probably play tomorrow when Lugo goes
for the Royals, so I don't think he'll have too
bad starts in a row. But for today, I'm going
to lay off. Go download my picture projections sheet from
my page at wages talk dot com.
Speaker 2: It's free.
Speaker 1: I was I was not expecting Brian to disagree with
me that bad. I get where the price is, totally
understand that. But so here's my opinion. On the Kate
on Kate Dana, and I think there's two guys in
my opinion that I hope their organization at the end
of the season calls them into the coach's offices and says.
Speaker 2: Hey, we fed up, that's are bad, Like We're sorry.
Speaker 1: Did he or Fuentes on the Braves is an odin
apology from his from from Braves management. The other guy
is Caden Dana, because Cad and Dana last year was
as touted of a like. He was as high on
my Triple A pitcher power ratings when he came up
from Double A as anyone. And what the what the
Angels have done is maybe what they're as good as
any team in the league and doing, and that's ruining pitching.
This Angels team just ruins pitchers. And Caden Dana is
another example. There was a there was a scenario so
earlier this year they called him up April fourth, which
was probably always always too soon. It's one of those
things where you should have just had him on the
big league roster out of camp. I think they like,
I think he was possibly on it, they went a
different way. He went into the and then of course
Angels needed a pitcher, so they called him up, gets crushed.
It was a bad spot for him, goes back down.
He's pitching, okay, he's pitching okay.
Speaker 2: Then he has a scenario where I bet the game,
so I remember this.
Speaker 1: He didn't have it in the first inning, so they
like took him out after a third of an inning
and try to give him a start a couple of
days later against the same team, gets bombed. Shocker, like
that was ever gonna work out. Then he gets called
up again to face the Marlins.
Speaker 2: Crushed.
Speaker 1: So that's is two times now he's gone back down
injured mid middle of June, probably because they're dicking him around.
He's a starter. Now he's out of the bullpen. We've
got him out of the bullpen here. Now we're gonna
start him. Now, we're gonna start him after letting him
throw an inning when he didn't have it.
Speaker 2: Just a total shit show. Should have never happened.
Speaker 1: Hurt on the il for a month, comes back crushed
every single game since he's been back. It's just a
bit a total dick around for him. His era at
Salt Lake this month is six in five starts with
a two fifty three batting average against in a one
point four to two whip. So what did they say
on short notice here, fitt, let's let's let's let's fly
out to Kansas City. We'll give you, We'll give you
the start here. It just like this is what I'm
talking about. Like, I don't think he was even I
didn't hear he was starting until until like a few
minutes ago.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: But the reason he's probably gonna come up and make
this start is the Angels cook through their bullpen In
last night's win. They used a lot of bullpen arms,
so they probably looked at who was coming up and said, well,
we already ruined this guy enough. Let's just throw him
back out there and see what he can do. Not
fair tough spot for him, and then after him no
bullpen arms because you used all the good ones last night.
So I don't see if they listen. The Royals stuck
it to me twice last week, so I won't be
surprised if they just vomit on themselves here for taking
one of Tokyo Brandon's terms. If they puke all over
themselves in an inn a spot where they need to win,
won't surprise me. But this is as good of a
spot as you're gonna find for the Royals on their
home field. There's no way I can play it straight
at the price. So to get some action here, I
gotta I gotta put it in the parlay. So what
are we looking at for a Royals money line?
Speaker 2: Right here?
Speaker 3: He worried. He just said, I'm not going to play
it straight. That's where the value is in the in
the the line. Great, great back and forth. I love that.
I appreciate it. Right now you're looking at in the parlay,
we're looking at about it? What one seventy five? It's
all over the place right now. But one seventy five is.
Speaker 2: Uh, that's fine?
Speaker 1: And and and real quick turnbuckle, Tommy. We we've hit
back to back parlays multiple times so far. I just
want to I just want to update everyone since we
we went through it a little bit in the parlays
the last couple of weeks. Someone says they barely hit
parlays on the show. You must be new, because we
got so what he Here's what happened. If you're new
to the show, we got out to a hot star
in the parlays, as you know, hitting three teamers.
Speaker 2: This is something we kind of do for fun on
the show.
Speaker 1: We lost most of what we were up yesterday, we win,
so coming into today just to update everyone, and this,
in my opinion, is pretty impressive. We have fired a
parlay on this show every single day since April and
coming into today, if you were to play them for
a dollar for the same amount, so for you know,
let's say you played them for one unit or every
every dollar, let's say you put ten dollars on each one.
For every dollar that has been risked, we're up one
point one to two units, which means it's hey, it's
not much, but we're kind of showing that, like we're
able to grind a little bit in and listen, Like,
I don't think any of the three of us would say, hey,
parlay betting is smart. This is something we do for
fun to just add some little little bit of value
for the show. Oftentimes that yesterday I told you the
pirates were my four percenter, so you could have just
hit that straight and.
Speaker 2: Cash with that.
Speaker 1: But I think we've done a pretty good job on
the parlays overall the fact that we are up ahead
in September Betting three Team parlays on a show or
we're essentially just putting our leans in a parlay.
Speaker 2: It's pretty impressive, So shout out to us. That's all
I had.
Speaker 4: And Brian can probably attest to this because Brian knows
more about casinos in Vegas. But I heard somewhere that
they make most of their money on parlays too, because
people always lose them.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they make all their money on parlays and parlay cards.
Not saying it's not good bets once in a while,
but yeah, in fact, generally, anybody out there that there's
a new show on our network. I watched it the
other day Press. I believe as the host he started
doing the parlays based on what we do here, because
it's so much like by you guys. Go back and
look at them at the end of the football season,
and nothing against those guys are all very good and
one of them is a book maker, but see what
their record is after the season. On three I want
to go I don't. I don't have time to watch
that show, but somebody tracked that. I was watching it
yesterday and they're doing the exact same thing as we are.
Speaker 1: I don't have time to either to be honest with
you like it. But but again, if you when we
threw out the idea to do this early April, I
think we're all like shit, like we're tracking that, like
this is going to be hard.
Speaker 2: It's going to be hard.
Speaker 1: The fact that we are sitting here on September fifth
in the plus to me is a major accomplishment.
Speaker 2: But we're not done yet.
Speaker 1: We need to have a good September because I really
want to get to the end of this this show
and be in the plus on the parlay.
Speaker 2: So, Brian, I know we know.
Speaker 4: That show, but could you imagine if you bet, if
you bet our bets separately as three, how much you'd
be up? Probably quite a bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say, we've definitely got two of
three on a number of occasions, so many many times.
Speaker 3: About three, and all more than we've gone on three.
Speaker 1: Also, yes, Brian, what is it? What is the juice
on that over in the Giant Rockeys game.
Speaker 3: That is minus one fifteen The Miami first half is
minus one forty five and your Royals are minus one
seventy five.
Speaker 1: And also I want to make sure that like set
like the other thing to point out it has nothing
against the other show. It's that baseball is just it
is a more a little bit more of a beatable
market than like I'm assuming they're doing, like NFL sides
and college football totals really really tough to beat the NFL.
Speaker 2: It just against on sides and stuff. Just very very difficult.
Speaker 1: But anyway, let me run, let me get a let
me get a number for that. As my screen just
shut down after I had it punched in, so I
will read it as I as I punched this in,
you said minus one fifteen on that total. Brian, Yes, beautiful, Okay,
So that is gonna so the parlay is gonna come
out to plus three ninety six.
Speaker 2: That's actually not terrible considering TV and I went a
little juice on our legs.
Speaker 1: So Tokyo, Brandon is going with Marlins first five money line.
I'm going with the Royals for the full game on
the money line, and Brian Leonard's going with a total
over eleven Giants Rockies. So one more time on the
three teamer Marlin's first five money line, Royal's money line,
and Bryan says Giants Rockies over eleven pace plus three
ninety six. So we need to now I feel like
we're the challenges. Can we hit them back to back?
Day three teamers. I will say this, I don't think
it's happened in a little bit, so I'd love to
do it today. Let's hit another parlay, win or lose.
We'll be back at nine am tomorrow morning. All the
guys are gonna have stuff up on their page today.
TV's already got stuff up. I'll be probably locking in
a place shortly here. I think everyone's on a pretty
good run, so check out the different specials right now.
I think we've got a seven day all access that
is pretty discounted, and that's for all handicappers, so take
a look at that.
Speaker 2: We appreciate you guys tuning in. This show has been
probably the most fun I've had on a Wager talk
show maybe ever since, you know, since I've been working here.
Speaker 1: So uh, it's been great. We'll be here all September
in all playoffs. As far as I know, we're gonna
be here all playoffs, so uh, we'll be.
Speaker 2: We'll be. We'll be with you guys for the long haul,
and we'll be back tomorrow morning. Win or lose. Have
a great day everyone. We'll see you guys in the morning.
Speaker 1: Yeah,