WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.399 --> 00:00:14.439 I'm hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. 2 00:00:14.480 --> 00:00:19.440 I'm here with Andy Milburn. Colonel Andy Milburn retired A right, 3 00:00:19.480 --> 00:00:21.839 you told me I gotta prefer to you as colonel, 4 00:00:21.960 --> 00:00:28.199 So yeah, I'm to meet you con tacos. 5 00:00:28.239 --> 00:00:29.600 Thanks for joining us. Do it's a favorite. 6 00:00:29.600 --> 00:00:31.719 Don't forget to like and subscribe if you're listening to 7 00:00:31.879 --> 00:00:35.439 an audio rated five stars, and check out our Patreon 8 00:00:35.520 --> 00:00:38.799 Patreon dot com. Slash the Team House all right, Plugs 9 00:00:38.799 --> 00:00:41.280 out of the Way, and Andy Milburn's book When the 10 00:00:41.320 --> 00:00:45.359 Tempest Gather. There's link is in the description. Uh Andy, 11 00:00:45.600 --> 00:00:47.039 how are you first and foremost? 12 00:00:47.640 --> 00:00:52.039 Yeah, I'm doing great good here and READD Saudi Arabia. 13 00:00:51.920 --> 00:00:55.119 Beautiful, Sonny. I think it's probably very sunny. 14 00:00:55.320 --> 00:01:00.640 READD honey, very healthy. It's no alcohol, oh good on 15 00:01:00.759 --> 00:01:04.599 a compound. There's no way to get into trouble here. 16 00:01:05.000 --> 00:01:06.519 So I'm doing very well. 17 00:01:06.640 --> 00:01:06.840 Thanks. 18 00:01:06.879 --> 00:01:11.079 Almost almost like prison, but nicer, far nicer. Yeah, and 19 00:01:11.120 --> 00:01:14.280 you're getting paid, so it could be it could actually 20 00:01:14.280 --> 00:01:14.760 be prison. 21 00:01:15.760 --> 00:01:17.799 All right. So a lot happened last night. 22 00:01:18.040 --> 00:01:24.000 Uh India hit back on Pakistan and retaliation for the 23 00:01:24.120 --> 00:01:31.319 attack in Kashmir that killed twenty six people Islamish India 24 00:01:31.359 --> 00:01:38.319 saying it was Islamis militants in Kashmir. India hit Pakistan 25 00:01:38.359 --> 00:01:41.760 controlled Kashmir, and they also hit like Pakistan proper. They 26 00:01:41.760 --> 00:01:46.000 say it's all like militant groups, infrastructure and stuff like that. 27 00:01:46.079 --> 00:01:48.439 As far as we know right now, nine people have died. 28 00:01:50.159 --> 00:01:55.120 I'm sure it's more Pakistan saying that they've shot down 29 00:01:55.239 --> 00:01:59.799 th read. It goes from three or five aircraft jets, 30 00:02:00.159 --> 00:02:04.359 you know, fourth generation plus fighters and drones. I don't 31 00:02:04.400 --> 00:02:10.319 know if that's been confirmed. They have been since their retaliation, 32 00:02:10.439 --> 00:02:15.639 been trading artillery. So what the fuck is gonna happen? Andy, 33 00:02:15.759 --> 00:02:18.120 I mean, is this gonna spiral out of control? 34 00:02:19.000 --> 00:02:22.599 Yeah? Put on my plate. Well, actually, I don't think 35 00:02:22.599 --> 00:02:25.319 it will. Dan. I'll get back to this. So just 36 00:02:25.360 --> 00:02:28.599 you know a little bit of background, and you know, 37 00:02:28.639 --> 00:02:31.439 I know, we we're not supposed to insert ourselves into 38 00:02:31.439 --> 00:02:33.879 the story. Dan, you want us about that all the time. 39 00:02:34.000 --> 00:02:34.800 I never warned you. 40 00:02:34.879 --> 00:02:38.319 But I'm actually very you know. I mean, I've been 41 00:02:38.360 --> 00:02:41.919 to Shrinika three or four times, so I'm probably one 42 00:02:41.960 --> 00:02:44.560 of the few Americans who has been there, and I'm 43 00:02:44.599 --> 00:02:46.840 old enough to have been there before it was blocked 44 00:02:46.840 --> 00:02:49.840 off to tourists, and when there is a as a 45 00:02:49.879 --> 00:02:55.280 teenager twice and just love the most beautiful area in 46 00:02:55.319 --> 00:02:59.159 the foothills of the Himalayas, it's just extraordinary. The people 47 00:02:59.159 --> 00:03:03.199 there are wonderful too, you know. And needless to say, 48 00:03:03.240 --> 00:03:05.520 of course, it's very sad that it has been such 49 00:03:05.560 --> 00:03:10.680 a bony contention between India and Pakistan, going back as 50 00:03:10.680 --> 00:03:17.319 we talked about to the nineteen forty nine partition. I'm sorry, 51 00:03:17.400 --> 00:03:19.840 forty seven partition. I was thinking of the birth of 52 00:03:20.400 --> 00:03:23.639 I was thinking of forty eight, forty nine birth of Israel, 53 00:03:24.199 --> 00:03:29.159 forty seven partition between the two countries. So his what 54 00:03:30.560 --> 00:03:33.719 I am seeing right now, Dean, I could be absolutely wrong, 55 00:03:33.800 --> 00:03:38.199 and there's a lot of speculation in twitter Land, But 56 00:03:38.960 --> 00:03:42.360 what I'm saying is this that both countries are actually, 57 00:03:42.680 --> 00:03:47.159 despite the usual Bellako statements, both countries are kind of 58 00:03:47.199 --> 00:03:53.199 playing according to unwritten rules. All right, Yes, to your point, 59 00:03:53.599 --> 00:03:58.919 the tit for tat, the strikes have straight out of 60 00:03:59.000 --> 00:04:05.680 Kashmire into areas of Pakistan. But if you look at 61 00:04:05.680 --> 00:04:09.520 what the targets are, and you look at some of 62 00:04:09.560 --> 00:04:14.840 the photographs from the media aerial photographs, it does seem 63 00:04:14.879 --> 00:04:21.079 as though India is making an effort to avoid collateral damage, 64 00:04:21.279 --> 00:04:25.040 and who knows whether the reports of civilians being killed 65 00:04:25.120 --> 00:04:27.680 or true or not, But when you look at the photographs, 66 00:04:27.720 --> 00:04:31.959 it is individual houses or compounds that have been struck. 67 00:04:32.560 --> 00:04:36.839 And I think probably most of our listeners are aware 68 00:04:37.000 --> 00:04:42.319 of the problems that India has had with homegrown Pakistan 69 00:04:42.720 --> 00:04:49.519 or Pakistan supporting terrorist organizations, allegedly supporting terrorist organizations like 70 00:04:50.079 --> 00:04:55.439 Lashka Our l T, Lashka Our Tayib. Right, hopefully I 71 00:04:55.439 --> 00:04:59.319 haven't mispronounced that l T and Jayshl Muhammat and those 72 00:04:59.360 --> 00:05:03.959 are two. And Lashka LT is the organization that launched 73 00:05:03.959 --> 00:05:09.800 the two thousand and eight Bomboy Mumbai raid that resulted 74 00:05:09.800 --> 00:05:16.720 in several hundred dead civilians. And that was there's actually 75 00:05:16.759 --> 00:05:19.439 a movie about that that I talked about. It was 76 00:05:19.439 --> 00:05:22.000 a very well planned raid and it was by all 77 00:05:22.040 --> 00:05:27.199 accounts commanded and controlled from led by lat in Pakistan. 78 00:05:28.160 --> 00:05:33.519 And then you know, India has there's been a number 79 00:05:33.519 --> 00:05:35.600 of attacks since then, and there have been a number 80 00:05:35.600 --> 00:05:38.800 of clashes since in twenty sixteen and in twenty nineteen 81 00:05:39.839 --> 00:05:43.720 and again now and you know, everyone is worried that 82 00:05:44.319 --> 00:05:47.360 here are two nuclear powers apparently on the verge of war. 83 00:05:47.800 --> 00:05:50.160 But let's look at a couple of things. Okay, So 84 00:05:50.240 --> 00:05:53.839 I talked about the fact that these strikes seemed to 85 00:05:53.879 --> 00:05:56.839 be quite limited, and Pakistan, for its part, has hit 86 00:05:57.639 --> 00:06:04.360 targets in Kashmir. Pakistan is talking about now is striking 87 00:06:04.399 --> 00:06:08.279 into India. Certainly has the capability to do that as 88 00:06:08.360 --> 00:06:11.959 quite a missile array, and India of course has the 89 00:06:12.040 --> 00:06:16.519 ability to return that. But so far the targeting has 90 00:06:16.600 --> 00:06:20.120 been quite specific. And the other thing is kind of interestingly, 91 00:06:20.199 --> 00:06:25.399 so the Pakistani's reported that they've shot down between three 92 00:06:25.399 --> 00:06:31.000 to five Indian jets and a Heron drone. The Indians 93 00:06:31.000 --> 00:06:34.560 are clearly, I mean not clearly they've they they're admitting 94 00:06:34.560 --> 00:06:37.600 they've lost aircraft. Although the photographs that are appearing on 95 00:06:37.639 --> 00:06:41.439 Twitter are from they're not recent, they're from last year 96 00:06:41.800 --> 00:06:46.319 or back in twenty nineteen. But you safe to say 97 00:06:46.319 --> 00:06:49.560 that the Indians lost aircraft. Those aircraft actually crashed in India, 98 00:06:50.720 --> 00:06:54.319 raising speculation that they were you know, these were accidents, 99 00:06:54.360 --> 00:06:57.439 but it's entirely possible that Pakistan shot them down. The 100 00:06:57.439 --> 00:07:01.480 Indians haven't actually been flying over Pakistani air base. And 101 00:07:01.480 --> 00:07:04.959 when I talk about their attempts to limit actions. They've 102 00:07:04.959 --> 00:07:11.439 been hoisting, launching, lofting missiles from the Indian side of 103 00:07:11.480 --> 00:07:14.759 the border towards Pakistan. And so they may have been 104 00:07:14.920 --> 00:07:17.720 you know, intercepted in the air over but certainly they 105 00:07:17.759 --> 00:07:22.319 crashed in Indian territory. So I will pause, Sarah case 106 00:07:22.360 --> 00:07:25.160 you have any questions. So maybe I'm just being overly optimistic, 107 00:07:25.199 --> 00:07:30.399 but I don't see this going down the path to war. 108 00:07:30.839 --> 00:07:35.720 You know, they're neither country stands to gain from this. 109 00:07:36.160 --> 00:07:40.360 It is true that Modi, who's the you know, the 110 00:07:40.360 --> 00:07:45.360 the Indian premiere, he stands to gain. He's got a 111 00:07:45.399 --> 00:07:48.920 tremendous he was in the past tremendously popular in India. 112 00:07:49.279 --> 00:07:54.439 But there has been some dissatisfaction, dissatisfaction recently with them, 113 00:07:54.560 --> 00:07:58.519 not just over ethnic tensions, over a plateauing economy, which 114 00:07:58.560 --> 00:08:00.959 may not be entirely his fault, that he's getting blamed 115 00:08:00.959 --> 00:08:04.480 for that. And so he does benefit by rattling sabers 116 00:08:04.480 --> 00:08:07.120 at Pakistan, which he's happy to do from time to time, 117 00:08:07.120 --> 00:08:10.199 but it certainly doesn't benefit him to go to war 118 00:08:10.439 --> 00:08:15.720 and night. And you know, certainly, although the populations of 119 00:08:15.759 --> 00:08:19.920 both countries have been brought up in this atmosphere of 120 00:08:20.759 --> 00:08:23.120 I would say hatred. That's a strong word, but near 121 00:08:23.279 --> 00:08:27.839 enough towards the other country. And although both countries went 122 00:08:27.920 --> 00:08:31.399 to war, you know, fifty years goinge a very bloody 123 00:08:31.480 --> 00:08:37.559 campaign over what became Bangladesh was then East Pakistan. Again, 124 00:08:38.759 --> 00:08:44.759 the you know, the undercarrent of the real undercurrent of feeling. 125 00:08:44.840 --> 00:08:47.720 If you're to look at reflections of India and Pakistan 126 00:08:47.799 --> 00:08:50.399 social media, it's not hey, let's go to war, let's 127 00:08:50.399 --> 00:08:53.039 bash him. It is a real concern that they will 128 00:08:53.039 --> 00:08:55.759 go to war. And I think that the leaders will 129 00:08:55.559 --> 00:08:56.919 we'll pay attention to that. 130 00:08:58.000 --> 00:08:59.799 Hey, guys, I want to take a moment to tell 131 00:08:59.840 --> 00:09:03.360 you about tonight's sponsor for the show, which is Ridge Wallets. 132 00:09:04.080 --> 00:09:06.840 I've been using this for about six months now, really 133 00:09:06.960 --> 00:09:10.080 enjoy it. This wallet is made out of carbon, fiber, 134 00:09:10.200 --> 00:09:13.799 titanium and steel and it really holds up and lasts. 135 00:09:14.159 --> 00:09:17.919 So you know, in the past, I carried a leather wallet. 136 00:09:18.039 --> 00:09:21.240 You know, it's made by you know professional has a 137 00:09:21.240 --> 00:09:24.240 small shop it makes does leather work. I mean, it 138 00:09:24.279 --> 00:09:26.720 was a nice wallet and I really loved it. But 139 00:09:26.840 --> 00:09:30.279 the problem with those wallets is they get thicker and 140 00:09:30.320 --> 00:09:33.000 thicker and thicker, and we end up carrying around something 141 00:09:33.039 --> 00:09:35.639 that's like, you know, a little phone book in the 142 00:09:35.639 --> 00:09:38.519 back of our pocket after a while, and that leads 143 00:09:38.559 --> 00:09:42.519 to problems with your posture and everything else. So what 144 00:09:42.559 --> 00:09:45.559 I like about the Ridge wallet it's really a minimalist design. 145 00:09:46.279 --> 00:09:49.480 So most of us are using cards these days, so 146 00:09:49.600 --> 00:09:51.679 it can hold all of your cards in here inside 147 00:09:51.759 --> 00:09:54.679 these elastic pieces that you can press out, and then 148 00:09:54.720 --> 00:09:57.639 there's a clip on the back you can I use 149 00:09:57.639 --> 00:09:59.919 it to clip money in when I do use a 150 00:10:00.120 --> 00:10:01.919 dollars can clip. 151 00:10:01.720 --> 00:10:02.240 Them in there. 152 00:10:02.960 --> 00:10:06.200 They have over fifty colors and styles, so it's not 153 00:10:06.320 --> 00:10:09.039 just functional. You can personalize it a bit as well. 154 00:10:10.039 --> 00:10:12.559 They have some that feature your favorite NFL teams and 155 00:10:12.600 --> 00:10:17.080 so forth. Losing your wallet is also pretty crappy. I've 156 00:10:17.120 --> 00:10:20.759 had that happen to me as well. Actually, that wallet, 157 00:10:20.879 --> 00:10:22.799 the leather wallet I was telling you about, I lost it. 158 00:10:22.759 --> 00:10:24.720 On the subway. So there's that. 159 00:10:24.960 --> 00:10:28.960 But Ridge has an answer for that, Ridge air tag attachment, 160 00:10:29.639 --> 00:10:32.080 and with that you'll always know exactly where your wallet 161 00:10:32.159 --> 00:10:34.080 is before panic mode kicks in. 162 00:10:34.360 --> 00:10:37.080 All right. Ridge isn't just about wallets. 163 00:10:37.080 --> 00:10:41.159 They create premium everyday carry essentials like key cases, suitcases, 164 00:10:41.279 --> 00:10:45.279 and rings, all built with the same sleek, durable design. 165 00:10:45.639 --> 00:10:49.320 So right now Ridge is having there once a year 166 00:10:49.519 --> 00:10:53.000 anniversary sale get up to forty percent off at Ridge 167 00:10:53.000 --> 00:10:56.799 dot com slash house. Just head to Ridge dot com 168 00:10:56.840 --> 00:10:59.519 slash house to see their biggest sale of the year. 169 00:10:59.559 --> 00:11:02.000 After you purchase, they will ask you where you heard 170 00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:04.480 about them. Please support our show and tell them our 171 00:11:04.519 --> 00:11:07.080 show sent you. So, guys, please go and check out 172 00:11:07.200 --> 00:11:10.279 Ridge Walt's. This also makes a great gift. My girlfriend 173 00:11:10.320 --> 00:11:13.000 has one of these, My stepfather has one of these, 174 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:17.000 so I've given them away too, and our producer Dmitri 175 00:11:17.120 --> 00:11:17.639 has one. 176 00:11:18.320 --> 00:11:20.080 So please go and check out Ridge Watts. 177 00:11:21.559 --> 00:11:23.440 Yeah, I mean, let's let's hope. 178 00:11:23.480 --> 00:11:28.080 So and then, you know, last we talked about Believe 179 00:11:28.080 --> 00:11:35.399 It's in nineteen ninety eight, there was perhaps that both 180 00:11:35.440 --> 00:11:38.399 countries came closest to the brank of fallout a full 181 00:11:38.519 --> 00:11:42.240 war since they had been since seventy one, and there 182 00:11:42.320 --> 00:11:46.519 was an open talk about nuclear preemption, both countries using 183 00:11:46.600 --> 00:11:50.799 nuclear weapons against the other. And apparently, you know, I 184 00:11:50.840 --> 00:11:53.679 only know this for sure on the Pakistani side, that 185 00:11:53.759 --> 00:11:56.759 there is a policy of preemptive strike. In other words, 186 00:11:56.799 --> 00:12:00.360 if they suspect that the other country is prepared to 187 00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:05.080 or threatening to then they are authorized within their own 188 00:12:05.360 --> 00:12:08.919 kind of strategic doctrine to strike first with nuclear weapons, 189 00:12:08.960 --> 00:12:11.840 which is obviously concerning sure. 190 00:12:12.000 --> 00:12:15.639 Yeah, and also giving command and control over to generals 191 00:12:15.639 --> 00:12:19.279 and stuff sounds a bit wiley coyote. 192 00:12:19.519 --> 00:12:21.120 It sounds a bit nuts to me. 193 00:12:21.720 --> 00:12:25.759 Yeah, it's more of a danger really on on the 194 00:12:25.759 --> 00:12:31.919 Pakistani side. So, you know, one thing, and I would 195 00:12:31.960 --> 00:12:36.960 say US foreign policy has consistently falling short honestly when 196 00:12:36.960 --> 00:12:40.399 it's come to Pakistan. And I know there's a large 197 00:12:40.440 --> 00:12:43.080 audience out there who is going to be horrified by 198 00:12:43.159 --> 00:12:47.200 me saying this because we all remember that the pakistanis 199 00:12:47.639 --> 00:12:53.600 supported or the ISI at least supported the Taliban in Afghanistan. 200 00:12:53.679 --> 00:12:57.240 I mean, that is no secret. They supported the Taliban, 201 00:12:57.360 --> 00:13:01.440 but not necessarily, you know, not al Qaeda. And I 202 00:13:01.440 --> 00:13:05.799 think that's an important distinction. And needless to say, we 203 00:13:06.600 --> 00:13:10.000 created a lot of the problems in Afghanistan to my opinion, 204 00:13:10.159 --> 00:13:13.360 you know, with with the Taliban, and when when we 205 00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:16.039 were always trying to get Pakistan outside, we didn't we 206 00:13:16.039 --> 00:13:19.960 didn't recognize two things that the Pakistani security forces themselves 207 00:13:20.399 --> 00:13:27.799 were taking heavy casualties from UH from islamisists in in 208 00:13:27.919 --> 00:13:32.480 what they called the tribal provinces, you know, the border 209 00:13:32.480 --> 00:13:36.159 adjacent with Afghanistan. That was number one. Number two is 210 00:13:36.200 --> 00:13:41.120 that they supported the Taliban as a bulwark against India, 211 00:13:41.840 --> 00:13:47.559 and we the United States never really kind of recognized that. 212 00:13:47.639 --> 00:13:53.440 We during the Cold War, we wanted we courted both countries. 213 00:13:53.879 --> 00:13:57.960 And then of course when the Russians invaded Afghanistan, we 214 00:13:57.960 --> 00:14:02.080 were all in on in Afghanistan and we were we 215 00:14:02.120 --> 00:14:06.120 with the full collaboration with the ISI, with the Pakistani 216 00:14:06.559 --> 00:14:10.480 intelligence services, were supporting the Mujaheden. Of course, many of 217 00:14:10.480 --> 00:14:13.159 whom became most of whom, you know, it was the 218 00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:18.759 Pashtun fighters who subsequently became the Taliban, and of course 219 00:14:18.840 --> 00:14:21.960 the Arab fighters with the Summer ben Laden were a 220 00:14:22.000 --> 00:14:24.879 subset of that and became Al Qaeda. And there was 221 00:14:24.919 --> 00:14:28.440 a natural partnership that we that occurred under our noses, 222 00:14:28.519 --> 00:14:32.519 and in fact, arguably we helped forge We also were 223 00:14:32.559 --> 00:14:37.879 the ones who were supporting, you know, the Pakistanis on 224 00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:40.799 condition that they supported the muja Hiden. So we created 225 00:14:40.799 --> 00:14:44.039 that bond between the ISI and the Taliban, and then 226 00:14:44.080 --> 00:14:48.080 subsequently turned around and played Pakistan for having that bond, 227 00:14:48.200 --> 00:14:51.399 you know, I mean, look the Pakistan is not blameless, 228 00:14:51.440 --> 00:14:55.480 of course, but I'm just saying that our own strategy 229 00:14:55.480 --> 00:14:59.840 towards Pakistan has been has been at the very least confusing. 230 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:05.000 And so one other thing that is I think really 231 00:15:05.039 --> 00:15:07.799 concerning that Pakistan is obviously the threat of nuclear wars 232 00:15:09.720 --> 00:15:15.000 is concerning both countries. But the question of water rights, 233 00:15:15.120 --> 00:15:20.799 the the I believe it's called the Indus Indus River Agreement. 234 00:15:21.840 --> 00:15:25.200 Someone will correct me, I'm sure in their comments, but 235 00:15:26.000 --> 00:15:30.840 the basically they they're you know, both countries were Pakistan 236 00:15:30.919 --> 00:15:34.360 is dependent on India to some extent for water supplies, 237 00:15:34.799 --> 00:15:42.440 and now India is threatening to dam up its reservoirs 238 00:15:42.720 --> 00:15:46.440 and create a huge amount of silt, making the water 239 00:15:46.600 --> 00:15:51.240 that reaches Pakistan problematic, difficult to drink, and that is 240 00:15:51.279 --> 00:15:54.399 going to be difficult to use. That that is going 241 00:15:54.440 --> 00:15:57.200 to be a significant issue too. So there are things 242 00:15:57.799 --> 00:16:01.080 that both countries or India can do in particular to 243 00:16:01.120 --> 00:16:05.120 herd Pakistan that don't necessarily involve firing missiles and just 244 00:16:05.159 --> 00:16:12.159 go on generating this tension between them and Yes, Pakistan, 245 00:16:12.840 --> 00:16:16.679 you know, I've may sound quite supportive at Pakistan, but 246 00:16:16.679 --> 00:16:20.879 there's no doubt about it that there are extremist groups 247 00:16:21.120 --> 00:16:25.879 who have safe haven in Pakistan, and I mentioned two 248 00:16:25.879 --> 00:16:31.120 of them, Led and On JSHL Muhammad, and both of 249 00:16:31.159 --> 00:16:35.720 those groups have conducted terrorist attacks, not just the Mumbai 250 00:16:35.759 --> 00:16:39.840 two thousand and eight attacks, but consistently conducted attacks not 251 00:16:40.000 --> 00:16:44.480 just an in Trinegar but in India too, killing Indian civilians. 252 00:16:44.720 --> 00:16:48.480 And so when India strikes into Pakistan, this was the 253 00:16:48.480 --> 00:16:51.480 same in twenty nineteen, it always claims, and I think 254 00:16:51.480 --> 00:16:56.039 with some justification, that it is going after these particular bases. 255 00:16:56.919 --> 00:17:03.000 Yeah, understandably, So I would think just bring it back 256 00:17:03.039 --> 00:17:06.519 to the ISI. Pakistan is SI, I mean because some 257 00:17:06.720 --> 00:17:09.480 you mean, the hot most high profile terrorist was found living, 258 00:17:09.640 --> 00:17:15.640 you know, in the west point of Pakistan. You don't 259 00:17:15.680 --> 00:17:18.119 think there was any I I help in terms of 260 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:23.240 like getting uh Os bin Lan. 261 00:17:23.039 --> 00:17:27.920 I look, you know, I'm I'm sure that there was 262 00:17:28.000 --> 00:17:31.880 collaboration at that stage, but and and you've got to 263 00:17:31.880 --> 00:17:35.119 remember that by then there was again I'm not I 264 00:17:35.160 --> 00:17:35.559 know you're not. 265 00:17:35.640 --> 00:17:37.839 I know you're not yet. I'm just saying, like dummy 266 00:17:37.920 --> 00:17:38.599 would ask. 267 00:17:38.559 --> 00:17:42.000 That we, you know, we the United States, and take 268 00:17:42.039 --> 00:17:44.359 an ice from the Pakistani point of view, Okay, and 269 00:17:44.400 --> 00:17:48.400 I have uh you know, I had one friend. I 270 00:17:48.440 --> 00:17:51.599 actually went through the War College with Marinko War College 271 00:17:51.599 --> 00:17:55.880 as a Pakistani general, so I you know, I I 272 00:17:55.640 --> 00:17:57.559 I was able to see things a little bit from 273 00:17:57.599 --> 00:18:01.160 that side, and we had a very very transactional or 274 00:18:01.200 --> 00:18:04.880 hard relationship with the Pakistanis. There were times when we 275 00:18:04.920 --> 00:18:07.680 fired into Pakistan. Yeah, I mean you're probably aware of this. 276 00:18:08.519 --> 00:18:12.599 There were at times when Pakistani soldiers were held hit 277 00:18:12.640 --> 00:18:15.240 by US artsery fire, and I know, we're going to 278 00:18:15.279 --> 00:18:17.559 get people popping up saying well there was a reason 279 00:18:17.599 --> 00:18:19.599 for that, Yes, I know, but the way that it 280 00:18:19.640 --> 00:18:24.759 was projected in Pakistan was US aggression and the United 281 00:18:24.799 --> 00:18:29.480 States is very, very unpopular among the Pakistani population. A 282 00:18:29.519 --> 00:18:32.279 lot of that is due to propaganda. A lot of 283 00:18:32.279 --> 00:18:37.480 it is perception of US policy being anti Pakistani or 284 00:18:37.519 --> 00:18:40.559 anti Muslim. I understand that, and a lot of it 285 00:18:40.599 --> 00:18:44.200 is propagated not by necessarily by the government, but by 286 00:18:44.640 --> 00:18:49.920 organizations in the media within Pakistan. So yes, I have 287 00:18:50.079 --> 00:18:54.440 no doubt that. Of course Issama bin Laden couldn't have 288 00:18:54.519 --> 00:19:00.279 lived there for so long without some complicit help by 289 00:19:00.319 --> 00:19:04.079 the by the Pakistani government. I'm just saying that we, 290 00:19:04.680 --> 00:19:07.799 the US, are not blameless in creating that very fraud 291 00:19:07.880 --> 00:19:09.759 relationship with Pakistan. 292 00:19:11.359 --> 00:19:13.519 Yeah, I feel like we're not blameless in any fraud 293 00:19:13.559 --> 00:19:16.440 relationships we have all over the world, right like we 294 00:19:16.480 --> 00:19:20.759 always This takes to the tango, really, I mean, just 295 00:19:20.799 --> 00:19:22.960 a little bit more of what's going on, Like right 296 00:19:23.000 --> 00:19:25.720 now on the ground, they're tanks moving towards the Indian 297 00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:28.720 Pakistani tanks moving towards the Indian border. I'm sure that 298 00:19:28.759 --> 00:19:32.440 could be just more saber rattling, just Pakistan showing that 299 00:19:32.519 --> 00:19:36.359 they are, you know, serious about this and they're not 300 00:19:36.440 --> 00:19:41.599 backing down. Do you think Pakistan retaliates maybe a tick 301 00:19:41.680 --> 00:19:42.079 for table. 302 00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:45.960 So you're saying there's there's tanks moving towards the border 303 00:19:46.000 --> 00:19:47.559 on the Pakistani side. 304 00:19:47.400 --> 00:19:52.400 Correct, on the Pakistani side, Yeah, the Indian side, there 305 00:19:52.480 --> 00:19:59.079 is a state it's Rajastan, which is the the closest 306 00:19:59.079 --> 00:20:02.039 to Pakistan, and they gone on high alert there and 307 00:20:02.400 --> 00:20:03.480 closed the airports. 308 00:20:04.200 --> 00:20:06.759 But I don't know, you know that there hasn't been 309 00:20:06.839 --> 00:20:10.799 signed of movements unless I'm missing this large movement of 310 00:20:10.839 --> 00:20:16.039 ground forces towards that. But there has been fighting already 311 00:20:16.640 --> 00:20:19.559 along the line of control in Trinigar, which is the 312 00:20:20.279 --> 00:20:24.599 you know, the essentially the front line between the two countries, 313 00:20:25.279 --> 00:20:27.720 and you know, there's kind of an agreement that what 314 00:20:28.200 --> 00:20:32.960 happens in Trinigar stays in Trinigar. So I think that 315 00:20:33.000 --> 00:20:35.880 both countries are going to be quite eager to keep 316 00:20:35.920 --> 00:20:39.160 it there. But yeah, there's been exchanges of artillery. There 317 00:20:39.200 --> 00:20:41.279 have been casualties on both sides. 318 00:20:42.519 --> 00:20:43.759 Not you know, not. 319 00:20:43.839 --> 00:20:49.799 Yet direct infantry fighting, but certainly artillery rates. 320 00:20:50.279 --> 00:20:52.640 Do you see there being a chance where Pakistan like 321 00:20:52.759 --> 00:20:56.240 sounds like a couple dozen ballistic missiles into India. 322 00:20:58.480 --> 00:21:02.279 Ah, well that you know, that would be definitely an escalation. 323 00:21:02.839 --> 00:21:07.480 I mean, yeah, you know, so Pakistan could portray it 324 00:21:07.480 --> 00:21:11.079 as not being an escalation, having said, hey, look the 325 00:21:11.079 --> 00:21:15.759 Indians have already struck Pakistani soil, but the Indians are 326 00:21:15.759 --> 00:21:18.160 making it very clear that when we did that, it 327 00:21:18.279 --> 00:21:23.440 was going after these specific terrorist targets. Notice they haven't 328 00:21:23.480 --> 00:21:27.359 struck the Pakistani military in Pakistan, and that is an 329 00:21:27.359 --> 00:21:32.920 important distinction to both sides. So for Pakistan to go after, say, 330 00:21:33.000 --> 00:21:37.799 Indian military targets in India definitely an escalation. And that 331 00:21:37.960 --> 00:21:42.119 is when it's certainly going to be concerning deep because Modi, 332 00:21:42.240 --> 00:21:45.440 as you you know, you're probably aware is he's populist, 333 00:21:45.480 --> 00:21:49.680 he's a nationalist. Remember you know the problems the Canadians 334 00:21:49.680 --> 00:21:53.880 have had with him over assassinating Sikh activists in Canada, 335 00:21:54.319 --> 00:21:56.559 and the Indians just didn't back down on that. You know, 336 00:21:56.599 --> 00:21:59.839 it's basically hate. Who gives a shit whether you disagree 337 00:21:59.880 --> 00:22:02.880 with it or not. I mean, it was very clear 338 00:22:02.920 --> 00:22:07.240 that they did that, so you know, and it's he's 339 00:22:07.319 --> 00:22:11.440 not going to want to lose face. So a civical 340 00:22:11.519 --> 00:22:14.559 tell you know. The pakistanis though, will understand this too, 341 00:22:15.279 --> 00:22:18.839 and it's going to be you know that they're both 342 00:22:18.839 --> 00:22:22.160 playing brinksmanship because they're both playing to our home audience. 343 00:22:23.200 --> 00:22:26.799 And it may be. It may be and I'm not 344 00:22:26.839 --> 00:22:29.880 saying necessarily true that on the Pakistani side, you know 345 00:22:29.920 --> 00:22:33.599 where the military is concerned, because you know that what's 346 00:22:33.720 --> 00:22:42.000 what's the saying that Pakistan and in most countries, you know, 347 00:22:42.400 --> 00:22:48.079 most democratic countries you have, they'll have a military. But 348 00:22:48.119 --> 00:22:50.839 in Pakistan it's a case of the military having a country. 349 00:22:51.480 --> 00:22:54.000 And you know, there's some truth in that. I mean, 350 00:22:54.279 --> 00:22:58.319 no civilian government in Pakistan has survived without support of 351 00:22:58.400 --> 00:23:00.920 the military. But my point is the strength there may 352 00:23:00.920 --> 00:23:03.359 be that is they don't have to play to a 353 00:23:03.359 --> 00:23:07.680 civilian population to get re elected. And you know, I 354 00:23:07.720 --> 00:23:14.359 and Pakistani military is as aggressive as though maybe sounding 355 00:23:15.039 --> 00:23:18.680 certainly don't want to plunge their country into war. And 356 00:23:18.960 --> 00:23:23.480 just a reminder for everyone, India is far bigger than Pakistan, right, So, 357 00:23:23.640 --> 00:23:28.359 I mean it would be a tremendously bloody, costly, pointless 358 00:23:28.400 --> 00:23:32.240 war for both countries, but Pakistan would be liable to 359 00:23:32.319 --> 00:23:33.799 emerge from this the worst. 360 00:23:35.720 --> 00:23:38.599 So what are like, what's the international community in like 361 00:23:38.599 --> 00:23:43.079 the US, I guess more doing to like kind of 362 00:23:43.160 --> 00:23:45.519 pull these guys back and like, you know, talk a 363 00:23:45.559 --> 00:23:48.400 little bit more since and have everybody just relax a 364 00:23:48.400 --> 00:23:48.839 little bit. 365 00:23:49.519 --> 00:23:53.000 Yeah, that's the other concerning thing. So normally, you know, 366 00:23:53.079 --> 00:23:58.960 previously and not always with a great deal of effectiveness, 367 00:23:58.960 --> 00:24:01.119 but the United States has stepped up to the plate 368 00:24:01.160 --> 00:24:03.680 to try and mediate and in nineteen seventy one it 369 00:24:03.720 --> 00:24:06.720 was Kissinger who did make a determined effort to try 370 00:24:06.759 --> 00:24:10.319 and prevent that war, but he was distracted obviously by 371 00:24:10.319 --> 00:24:14.519 other things such as Vietnam, the invasion of Cambodia, relations 372 00:24:14.559 --> 00:24:19.920 with China. But you know, in more recent years, yeah, 373 00:24:19.960 --> 00:24:24.359 it's been the United States. It's kind of led the 374 00:24:24.359 --> 00:24:29.400 the charge on trying to negotiate and calm things down. 375 00:24:30.039 --> 00:24:33.079 I haven't really seen that. You know, there's been a 376 00:24:33.079 --> 00:24:40.279 little bit of a you know, Rubio has he's he's 377 00:24:40.319 --> 00:24:47.559 commented about it. Yeah, and he's he India's briefed him, 378 00:24:47.720 --> 00:24:51.000 he said, But that doesn't seem to be a very 379 00:24:51.319 --> 00:24:55.200 concerted effort to try and diffuse the crisis. And it's 380 00:24:55.279 --> 00:24:58.839 really it's not clear whether the United States has he 381 00:24:59.240 --> 00:25:02.000 appetite or opacity to do so. And I know the 382 00:25:02.039 --> 00:25:05.759 President said it's a shame, you know, they've been fighting 383 00:25:05.759 --> 00:25:08.480 for many, many decades. But that's not quite the same 384 00:25:08.559 --> 00:25:11.519 as as reaching out to both leaders and saying, hey, 385 00:25:11.640 --> 00:25:12.319 knolk it off. 386 00:25:12.680 --> 00:25:15.079 Yeah, I know you're not a like, you know, you 387 00:25:15.119 --> 00:25:18.200 didn't work in the State Department, really, But what happens 388 00:25:18.200 --> 00:25:20.799 when there's no ambassadors. 389 00:25:20.440 --> 00:25:23.799 To both countries, Like who's who's. 390 00:25:23.559 --> 00:25:25.400 Kind of taking the lead on this, because yeah, right, 391 00:25:25.400 --> 00:25:27.799 you could talk to the Secretary of State blah blah blah, 392 00:25:27.799 --> 00:25:30.079 but like who's doing like the on the ground. 393 00:25:29.720 --> 00:25:33.200 Stuff, Well, no one's doing it right now, nobody. It's 394 00:25:33.240 --> 00:25:36.400 just not Yeah, I don't know where we stand with 395 00:25:36.440 --> 00:25:39.359 regard to ambassadors to India and Pakistan. I know you 396 00:25:39.480 --> 00:25:41.079 had Who's. 397 00:25:40.920 --> 00:25:43.759 Getting one last time? Louis Rita. 398 00:25:44.200 --> 00:25:46.480 Yeah, what what did he have to say on that? 399 00:25:47.319 --> 00:25:50.160 He said, I mean Lewis got a bless him. I 400 00:25:50.160 --> 00:25:50.680 love Lewis. 401 00:25:50.720 --> 00:25:53.039