Speaker 1: What's going on? Thank you so much for listening to
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your support. It is Tuesday at noon and that means
we chat with Andrew Dunn. He is the publisher of
long Leaf Politics. You can read that at long leafpol
dot com, and he is also a contributing columnist over
at the Charlotte Observer.
Speaker 2: Andrew, how are you, sir?
Speaker 3: I'm great, just trying to stay out of Valigator Alcatraz.
Speaker 1: Well, if you're in, if you're not in, an illegal alien,
I think you're off to a very good start. So
don't let yeah, don't let that be something that keeps
you up at night, unless, of course, you are an
illegal alien, and you would like to make a confession
right now on the radio. No comment, Okay, fair enough,
all right, So first off, I'm not sure have you.
You said in one of your posts long Leave Politics
that you would be writing something up on the Tillis decision.
Have you published that yet and if not, well, what
is it that? How did that strike you yesterday? I
spent all show talking about it yesterday, so I'm I'm
kind of tillised out on at the moment.
Speaker 2: What were your reactions?
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I bet yeah. I had a column go
up on the Charlotte Observer actually on Sunday writ and
about that. You know, I was actually writing something about
that when President Trump did his tirade against Tillis after
he voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill, and I
had to pivot pretty quick and adapt it to the
news that Tillis was actually dropping out. I wasn't surprised
to see that he's not running for reelection. I was
a little surprised by the i'man you know, coming just
so soon after that that truth socialill blow up. My
first reaction was, oh, this has got to be some
kind of AI hopes, but it turned out not to be.
But you know, my main takeaway there is, you know,
this has happened so many times before, where you know,
Tillis has gotten on the wrong side of President Trump,
you know, in regards to the Pete Hegseth nomination, and
then there was the border wall emergency funding thing in
President Trump's first term, and you know, every time Senator
Tillis has been able to patch things up, you know,
pretty quickly. But I guess either he felt like this was,
you know, the ultimate breakup with President Trump, or he
was just tired of trying to pretend to be somebody
he's not.
Speaker 1: So I and my thought yesterday after going through you know,
the tweets and all of that stuff, and listening to
his floor speech and then going you know, deep into
the argument he was making about Medicaid and the trigger
in the North Carolina law and all of this, you know,
the payments and then the rebates from the hospitals. My prediction,
and I don't make a lot of predictions because I'm
really not good at it, and this will probably be
another example of why I don't do them. I suspect
he may go work for a hospital system. That's that's
I think that after listening to his comments, I think
that's that's where he may land. Maybe a lobbyist or
a government liaison or something like that. It's I don't know,
it's just the argument he was making in order to
protect these you know, these payoffs basically to the hospital
systems and offloading all the cost of the Medicaid expansion
onto federal taxpayers so the state doesn't have to pay
any money at all towards the new expansion class. It
was just, yeah, it just struck me as hollow.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it was. You may be right, and
that wouldn't surprise me, but I was a little surprised
to see such passion from Tillis on this issue in particular.
I mean, Tillis was Speaker of the House right with
Carolina right after you know me, you know, the Affordable
Care Act, and nobody was in favor of Medicaid expansion.
So I'm a little confused as to, you know, when
his position switched on it. You know, there is an
argument to be made for doing a little bit more
to help support rural hospitals, but I don't think that
Medicaid has to be the way to do it, or
is even the best way to do that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1: Now, one of the names floated as a potential candidate
even before he announced his dropping out, But now even
more so Jeff Jackson, the Attorney General, and we've talked
about him and whether or not it would make sense
for him to look to run for another seat after
he just got into the AG's office. But you've got
to post up at Long Leave Politics about something he
has launched called the Lighthouse Fund.
Speaker 2: So what is that and what's its aim?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So, I mean, like its politics or not. Jeff Jackson
is the smartest political communicator North Carolina has seen, at
least in my lifetime for sure. And he put out
an email the other day asking for folks to contribute
to you know, like you said, the Lighthouse Fund, it's
really just a fancy name for something pretty simple. He
wants to target one million unaffiliated voters with a digital
ad once a month between now and his next election,
and he asks people to chip in for that. Now,
it's not uncommon for political figures to target people, you know,
off cycle, but there were two things that were unusual
here and that's why I ended up writing about it.
You know, First, he actually puts a price tag on it,
you know, he says ninety five hundred dollars a month
to reach a million unaffiliated voters, kind of unusual for
people to actually put that specific price tag on there.
And then he's also what I think is really smart,
as he's asking people to donate for a really specific purpose,
you know, might and I get dozens and dozens of
fundraising emails every month and they're all, you know, pretty much,
you know, donate now to help me stop the opposing party.
It's more general. I think it's really smart to ask
people to chip in for something really specific. I would
have to guess that his conversion rate is pretty high
on that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you say, every politician should be thinking about off
cycle messaging like this, And I would just throw this out,
you know, new Stock eleven ten ninety nine three WBT
if you'd like to advertise the other thing you've got.
This was at the Charlotte Observer that I took interest in.
Is peace titled? In North Carolina? Democrats have an identity crisis,
and I've been some may say I have been a
little harsh on the Democrat party chair, Anderson Clayton, or yeah,
Anderson Clayton, right, yeah, because I always think I'm saying
her name backwards and over her, you know, rural outreach efforts,
which as far as I can tell is like saying
y'all a lot and uh and it's like cussing. I
think those are the like, those are the main components.
I kid, she's also doing the listening tour, but I'm
not so sure that. And you you do a good
job of highlighting this, like, can can the Democrats be
two things at once? And I don't think they can. Right,
They're trying to win back rural voters rural Democrats, but
they also, you say, are tethered to a base that
demands loud affirmation on social issues, and I don't I
don't see a way to bridge that divide, do you?
Speaker 4: I don't, you know.
Speaker 3: And the reason why I wrote about this was, you know,
I've been following the Rural Listening Tour and it seems
like they've had decent attendance here and there. But I
noticed on their calendar they've got the Rural Listening Tour
going on and then the same week they hosted a
drag brunch in Raleigh, And you know, to me, there's
there's a whole lot of tension between those two goals.
So my question was can they do both at the
same time? You know, I spoke with Anderson Clayton. And
you know, of course she says, yes, they can. They
can walk and chew gum at the same time as
she says. But I'm a little bit more skeptical of this.
You know, there's a reason why Democrats have been hemorrhaging
rural votes over the last ten years, and I think
a lot of that has to do with social issues
and mixed messaging. And you know, when a lot of
these voters, who you know live in small town North Carolina,
you know, when they keep seeing all these you know,
social messages that don't align with their worldview. And I
think hosting a drag brunch at eleven am on a
Sunday when a lot of folks are supposed to be
in church, I think that sends a clear message that
they're not on the same side.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, this is one of the things I've said
before these listening tours. First off, most of the people
that show up to those things are Democrats already. It's
not like they're bringing in you know, conservatives or unaffiliateds
that are that lean conservative.
Speaker 2: It seems like they're just it's just.
Speaker 1: Like a complaint athon where you know, Democrats go in
there and talk about how bad things are with the
Republicans in charge. And the other thing is that it's
like they call it a listening tour, and it's it's
one of these words that I wonder how people use
it because the way I've always understood it, it was
like you're hearing me, like it's a hearing tour, right,
But then I started wondering, are they using it like
a parent uses it with a child, like listen to me?
Speaker 2: In other words, obey right. It's not like I'm here
to listen to you to hear you. I'm here to.
Speaker 1: Tell you this is what we're doing and this is
how it's going to be. Because I can't imagine people
are going to walk in there and say, yeah, you
know what, I haven't voted Democrat in a really long time,
but I would consider doing it if you abandoned all
of the LGBTQ platform, Right.
Speaker 2: They're not going to They're not going to listen to that.
They're not going to do that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're exactly right. I mean, I think
the main reason why you do something like that it
is a couple of things. One, you try to get
a headline in the local newspaper with your picture on it. Yeah,
and you know, shows hey, I was here, and then
you take a bunch of pictures that then next time
the election season rolls around, you can put your photo
out there and say, hey, I'm just like you.
Speaker 4: I was here.
Speaker 2: Well, and I thought you summed it up very well.
A great line. You said.
Speaker 1: It's getting harder to live one political identity in downtown
Durham and another in Duplin County. Social media collapses the
distance and voters see everything. Yeah, that's the and I
think that's the issue is, like you just mentioned, it
may be good for photo op in the local paper
or in a like hey remember when I visited you
kind of a thing, But in the meantime, they're seeing
all of these other tweets and Facebook posts and.
Speaker 2: All of this other stuff for the for the rest
of the year.
Speaker 1: And I guess that, you know, to bring it back
to Jeff Jackson, that's that's the brilliance of what it
is that he's doing. He's got to keep hammering his
brand to these independent voters.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, absolutely. And the other interesting part is that
local races are getting more and more nationalized.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: I see we've got the municipal elections coming up this fall,
and I'm seeing more and more candidates for these local
offices running on national issues, which makes what the Democrats
are trying to do even harder.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Andrew Dunn.
Speaker 1: You can read his work at long leafpol dot com
Longleaf Politics. Also, he is a contributing columnist over at
The Charlotte Observer and The roleyg News and Observer. Andrew,
always good to talk with you. I believe we are
no show next week, so take next week.
Speaker 2: Off, all right.
Speaker 3: Well, I'll miss you now.
Speaker 2: I'll miss you too, Andrew. I appreciate that Happy Independence.
Speaker 3: Day to you as well.
Speaker 2: Hi, buddy, take care all right.
Speaker 1: If you're listening to this show, you know I try
to keep up with all sorts of current events, and
I know you do too. And you've probably heard me
say get your news from multiple sources. Why Well, because
it's how you detect media bias, which is why I've
been so impressed with Ground News. It's an app and
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more transparent. Some breaking news, the Senate passed the Obah Baba,
the One Big Beautiful Bill Act through reconciliation. It was
a fifty one to fifty vote yes. JD Vance, the
Vice President. Vance broke the tie. There were three Republican
no votes Ran Paul Tom Tillis and Susan Collins. They
voted no, and so Vance rather came in and broke
the tie. And I believe now it's got to go
get concurrence from the House. So we'll see how that goes. Alrighty,
So back to Andrew Dunn's piece at the Charlotte Observer,
because I want to use this as a bit of
a springboard into another article from the New York Times.
But this question of the Democrats identity crisis, it is
acute here in North Carolina, but it is also throughout America,
right where you've got the party that as I call
it the Elysium Party sometimes because of the movie Elysium,
which is e L Y si U M. And if
you don't know the movie, it's Matt Damon is in it,
I believe. And it has this like the Earth has
become uninhabitable or almost uninhabitable, just really dry because you know,
climate change and all that, but they still need all
of the minerals and stuff.
Speaker 2: Mined off of the earth.
Speaker 1: And all the rich people are up on like a
climate controlled like massive spaceship that just kind of circles around,
you know.
Speaker 2: And and so it's.
Speaker 1: This this you know, abject poverty and unimaginable wealth, right,
and that's what the Democrat Party is becoming. And the
people who have all of the wealth that are you know,
hovering above the lowlies on the planet. You know, they
set the policies, they make the rules, they they they
offer the direction and stuff, and the others are just
sort of you know, kept alive in order to keep
you know, cleaning their houses and picking their crops. I mean,
I'm sorry, I mean mining, the mining, the minerals and such.
So that's very much the structure as I see it
that the Democrat Party has right now, and all of
the polling is confirming this that basically the Obama voters
migrated over to Donald Trump, and now the Republican Party
has become the party of the working class. They have
a lot more middle class, working class people that are
in their their ranks now. And so this attempt that
the North Carolina Democrat Party is making to win back
rural voters, to me is sort of laughable because it's
not for a poor slogan that you're losing these voters,
right it's the policies. It's what you actually stand for.
And this is one of the things that Democrats tell
themselves is that people love our policies. It's just our
messaging that isn't breaking through. For some reason, despite controlling
the media and movies and music and all of these
institutions right from schools through the cultural institutions of entertainment
and sports, and like all of these things, despite all
of this control, for some reason, our message just isn't
getting through. And that's not it, guys. Your message is
getting through. We hear it. We're just not listening to you.
As I said with Andrew, Like, there's a difference in
the way these words are used, I think, and too
often when people say, you know, we're listening or they
need to listen to us, what they're saying is obey.
They're not saying here because I have heard your messages.
I have heard what you stand for. I have heard
what you cheer for. So your booze mean nothing. Right,
people have heard what you stand for. They can't avoid it.
You've been pushing it.
Speaker 2: For quite some time.
Speaker 1: We all hear what you're saying, and we reject it.
We just don't agree. So this rural listening toward Anderson Clayton,
the like the I think she's like thirteen years old now,
I think anyway, she's like the youngest Democrat party chair
in a state. And she says, we haven't just lost
rural voters, We've lost rural Democrats. Yeah, did you see
what happened to Robinson County the other day? Like three
of the Democrat County commissioners all flipped party affiliation, and
Robinson County is still a majority Democrat county. They just
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make memories that'll last a lifetime. Ray, Welcome to the program.
Speaker 4: Hello Ray, Hello again, Pat. What I was wanting to
ask you is I've heard it before, said probably numerous times,
this thing of they say is the reason they're not
doing well is because it's their messaging and not their policies.
Do you think do you think they really can be
that ignorant of things or do they really believe that
themselves both?
Speaker 1: I think there are people that believe both of those.
That either know that it's not the messaging, and they're
basically like if they know that it's the policies that
are unpopular, and then they say, well, it's not the
policies are unpopular, it's the messaging and we're not breaking through. Well,
they're obviously lying if they know that not to be
the case, right, And so I think there are some
people that are in fact lying, and I think what
they're trying to say there is also you know, if
only people would believe our lies, right, like, if we
just figured out a better way to lie about what
it is we're trying to do, then people would would
go along with it. But there are a lot of
people in the Democrat camp I think that that do
honestly believe that it's just messaging because it has the
benefit of offloading any responsibility from themselves, right they there's
a motivated reasoning going on there, I think, where I
don't want to be blamed for this failure, So I'm
going to blame basically the voters for not getting what
we're selling, but I'm going to wrap it up in
this sort of package of Oh, it's totally my fault.
I just you know, I didn't communicate it clearly enough.
It's the equivalent of you know, I care too much.
That's my biggest weakness is that I care too much.
Speaker 4: It's just one of those things I think that for
them to really believe that they're trying to fool themselves
and you know, they have to. I think if they
want to really figure out what's wrong and correct their course,
they need to wake up and smell the coffee.
Speaker 2: Well, this is this is zero hour for them.
Speaker 1: They and I don't have any confidence that they're actually
going to be able to course correct. This election of
this guy in the Democrat primary in the New York
City mayor's race. Right to me, this is this is
their inflection point, and the path that they choose right
now is going to set the course for the National Party.
Speaker 2: I think, and I was.
Speaker 4: I was thinking about that mayor candidate in New York City.
I might be wrong, but I'm thinking he's gonna get
smoked pretty bad in the general.
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure.
Speaker 1: I'm not so sure, especially if you've got Andrew Cuomo
still in there, and you've got the Republican guy, Curtis
Sliwa if he's still running, and you got Eric Adams
as an independent. You got four candidates and the anti
Mam Danny vote would be split, you know, three ways.
Speaker 4: Okay, you know you might have a bird point there.
Speaker 2: Well, thanks a lot, yes, sir, all right, good to
talk with you.
Speaker 3: Ray.
Speaker 1: I appreciate the call, sir, and I am going to
get to Mam Danny. Yeah, I'm gonna get Yeah, we're
gonna go. We're gonna go on an anti commie ride today.
So I want to I want to get back to
this New York Times piece though. So this is by
Shane Goldmacher New York Times from yesterday, and it starts
off thusly, as he looks back at the defeat of
former Vice President Kamala Harris last fall. The thing that
keeps bothering Andre Cherney, a one time Democratic speech writer
and state party leader, is that he did not know
what miss Harris would have done as president if she
had won. The way he saw it, President Trump ran
on his own ideas, but miss Harris only ran against
mister Trump's. And he says, the oldest truism in politics
is you can't beat something with nothing. And so now
mister Cherney, the co founder of a nearly two decade
old liberal policy journal, is organizing a group of Democrat thinkers.
I just gave you a moment there to finish laughing
before I can take a group of Democrat thinkers to
recreate what mister Trump's allies did when he was voted
out of office. Which is to draft a ready made
agenda for the next Democrat presidential nominee. And what are
they calling it? Project twenty twenty nine.
Speaker 2: I'm not kidding.
Speaker 1: Like he literally says that Trump ran on his own
ideas and Harris just ran against Trump's, and so their
response is to rip off the Heritage Foundation's Project twenty
twenty five, even down to the name. Guys, that's not
your idea, Holy smokes, Project twenty twenty nine. They plan
to roll out an agenda over the next two years
in quarterly installments. Oh, I got that going first, then
I guess through mister Journey's publication, which is called Democracy
a Journal of Ideas, The goal is to turn it
into a book, just like Project twenty twenty five, and
to rally leading Democrat presidential candidates behind those ideas during
the twenty twenty eight primary season. This also highlights the
raging debate consuming Democrat lawmakers, strategists, and policymakers. Here it
is whether the root of the party's problem is its
ideas or its difficulty in persuading people to embrace them. Oh, no,
it's definitely yes, it's definitely the people not being persuaded.
It has nothing to do with the quality of the
ideas you see. Guys, do you think maybe if your
ideas were better, more people may be persuaded. It's easier
to persuade people if they're idea as you're trying to
convince them of don't suck. Okay, how about that? Why
don't you start there? But they won't.
Speaker 2: They won't.
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So the New York Times with this story about the
Democrats brilliant, brand new, completely novel idea to create project
twenty twenty nine. The New York Times article Democrats lay
groundwork for a project twenty twenty nine. But there is
a raging debate inside the Democrat party about whether the
root of the problem is their ideas or their difficulty
in persuading people to embrace their terrible ideas. Ah, that's
so difficult to figure this out. The surprise success of
Assemblyman Zoran Mamdani, a Democrats socialist, in the New York
mayoral primary, has only added.
Speaker 2: Fuel to the debate.
Speaker 1: Did he succeed because of the audacity of his ideas
is like freezing the rent, free buses and free childcare?
Or because of the clarity and simplicity of those phrases?
I can okay, Democrats, here's some free advice for you.
Everybody loves stuff for free. Yeah, you promise a bunch
of Democrats living in a city free crap, they're gonna
vote for you. This is not a matter of oh,
he figured out a way to save free buses. No,
because spoiler alert, ain't no such thing as free. None
of it's free. It's all got to be paid for.
Many strategists see the party's issues as more style than substance,
because of course they would, because if it's substance, then
that means they have to change their ideas, and they
don't want to do that. They're better than us. They
care more about people. That's why they can't break free
of this substance that they are trying to promote. So
they comfort themselves with this idea that it's just style.
Speaker 2: That's the problem.
Speaker 1: They argue, Democrats need to do a better job at
packaging and delivering their plans to voters, rather than crafting
new proposals entirely. But others believe the party has been
losing ground nationally because its ideas are stale, uninspiring, and
unresponsive to the demands of today's voters. One of the
people in charge some of the newest blood possible, the
freshest of fresh faces near a Tandon. Yes, that's who
we need to breathe some life into this Democrat carcass
near A Tandon, who served in the White House in
the Clinton, Obama and Biden administrations and now leads the
Center for American Progress. She's part of a sizeable advisory
board for Project twenty twenty nine that includes other fresh
faces like Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor under Biden.
There are a bunch of others and Marie Slaughter, former
president of the New America Foundation, a bunch of other
people whose names are well known in the stale Democrat establishment.
These are the freshest of the fresh faces. Some would
be allies. The Times goes on to say later, some
would be allies are skeptical that such an ideologically diverse
and divergent set of policy.
Speaker 2: Minds could Yes, they are all so so diverse.
Speaker 1: Yes, all of these Democrat thinkers are ideologically diverse and divergent.
And so there's skepticism that all of these diverse minds
could craft anything close to a coherent agenda. Well, that
is true, that part is true. I don't think they're
going to be able to craft a coher and agenda
because leftism is incoherent. Again, I've made this point many
many times over the years, which is, I don't envy
them having to defend some of these ideas because they
are like literally indefensible, they're logically incoherent. So that's the
first challenge, I guess, Adam Gentilesen, this was Harry Reid's guy.
He said, developing policies by checking every coalitional box is
how we got in this mess in the first place.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's true.
Speaker 1: He has spent recent months preparing to open a new
thing tank called Searchlight. There is no way to propose
the kind of policies the Democrat Party needs to adopt
without hacking off some part of the interest group. Borg well,
so he has a bit of an incentive here too
to crap on this idea because he has his own
thing that he's trying to do. That would, I guess, yeah,
be seen as a competitor. And then the populist wing
at its simplest seeks to redistribute power and wealth to
the working class and away from economic and corporate elites,
and to mobilize voters through that fight.
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, you've got the.
Speaker 1: Establishment the party's long term success, The argument goes, will
be determined by showing that liberalism works. So if you're
the party of government, you have to make make it
plain that government can work and that's not really what
populists do. All right, that'll do it for this episode.
Thank you so much for listening. I could not do
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