WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Why isn't bitcoin pumping? That's the big question everyone has. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I have some answers for you guys, as the charts

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<v Speaker 1>are lining up and it shows we are on the

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<v Speaker 1>cusp of a massive bull run again and the US

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<v Speaker 1>government recovers some crypto I was stolen from them. I'll

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<v Speaker 1>give you the details there. And there's some big updates

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<v Speaker 1>around etherorem and coin Basis base layer two. Let's get

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<v Speaker 1>into it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host,

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<v Speaker 1>Tony Edward. On your way in. Please sit that subscribe

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<v Speaker 1>button as well as the thumbs up button and leave

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<v Speaker 1>a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform

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<v Speaker 1>such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star

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<v Speaker 1>rating and review. Folks, what the hell is happening with bitcoin?

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<v Speaker 1>I want to share some thoughts here because Bitcoin, of

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<v Speaker 1>course is the mover of the entire crypto market. It

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<v Speaker 1>brings into liquidity so the all coins can move. So

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<v Speaker 1>we need bitcoin to do something. And Bitcoin has been

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<v Speaker 1>trying to break out and bust through seventy thousand dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>It keeps hitting a ceiling. So what is holding it back,

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<v Speaker 1>and over this weekend I put together a newsletter about

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<v Speaker 1>this topic and I wanted to share what some other

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<v Speaker 1>analysts are saying. But the main catalyst, folks, for what's

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<v Speaker 1>holding Bitcoin back is the DXY, the Dollar Currency Index.

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<v Speaker 1>We know there's an inverse correlation, and if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the Dollar Currency Index going back to September into

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<v Speaker 1>the whole of October, it's been going parabolic. Look at

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<v Speaker 1>the daily chart, green candle after green candle. This is

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<v Speaker 1>what we wanted bitcoin to do, but unfortunately the DXY

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<v Speaker 1>is doing it. And if you recall I was telling

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<v Speaker 1>you guys that early in September, I thought the DXY

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<v Speaker 1>would find some short term strength before rolling over. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it found more than short term strength. It's been going nuts.

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<v Speaker 1>But the silver lining here, guys, is that it is

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<v Speaker 1>extremely overbought by the textbook. You look at the daily RSI,

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<v Speaker 1>it's above seventy. It's been hanging out around the top

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<v Speaker 1>here for a long time. It just refuses to break down.

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<v Speaker 1>But one thing's for sure. Let's put our emotions to

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<v Speaker 1>the side. This is not sustainable. You look at any

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<v Speaker 1>asset or currency, you look at these charts when it's

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<v Speaker 1>in the overboughd zone. It can't stay there forever. It's

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<v Speaker 1>going to break down, and the longer it stays up there,

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<v Speaker 1>the stronger that breakdown is going to be. So I'm

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<v Speaker 1>preparing for once the election and some of these macro

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<v Speaker 1>factors come into alignment, you're going to see the dx

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<v Speaker 1>y breakdown significantly, and that's going to be very bullish

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<v Speaker 1>for Bitcoin in the all coins. I believe Bitcoin is

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<v Speaker 1>going to start to go parabolic in November into December.

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<v Speaker 1>Now I could be wrong. I don't have a crystal ball,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm forming my thesis on the data, not my

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<v Speaker 1>feelings or emotions. What the data is telling us and Bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>One thing that's very bullish is on the short term timeframe,

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<v Speaker 1>it is forming higher highs and lower highs. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>good sign. It's stare stepping its way out of this zone.

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<v Speaker 1>Now it has to break through seventy that's key, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So I think seventy k's around the corner where we

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<v Speaker 1>can break through there and then it's going to go

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<v Speaker 1>into price discovery. That's what we're waiting for, folks. And

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<v Speaker 1>I know it's painstaking, I know it's annoying. Look, I've

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<v Speaker 1>been here for multiple bull and bear market cycles. This

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<v Speaker 1>is boring the hell out of here. Now. I'm not fearful,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just bored. I'm just like, oh, come on, like

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<v Speaker 1>we want to get this show in the road. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm getting a bit impatient, but I'm not fearful because

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<v Speaker 1>I see different factors, the macro, the technicals, and much

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<v Speaker 1>more are aligning with the bull run continuing. But it's

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<v Speaker 1>a patience game. It is so much of a patience game.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is where smart money is usually able to

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<v Speaker 1>outlast retail and people who are not financially educated. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>people who are not financially educated follow headlines and then

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<v Speaker 1>they sell, they dump, they run for the hills when

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<v Speaker 1>they see the price pull back and there's some negative

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<v Speaker 1>news versus saying, hey, I'm gonna buy to dip and

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<v Speaker 1>continue at my position because I know where we're at

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<v Speaker 1>in the timeline of this bull market. And unfortunately, unless

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<v Speaker 1>you're financially educated doing your research, listening to the Thinking

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<v Speaker 1>Crypto podcast and getting up the data information and look

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<v Speaker 1>other off podcasts as well who are sharing quality information,

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<v Speaker 1>you're like a plastic bag floating in the wind. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>You need to be anchored and understand the data. The

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<v Speaker 1>data is so important and understanding what's happening in the markets.

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<v Speaker 1>So let me share what some different analysts are saying.

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<v Speaker 1>So analyst Bob Lucas, who I'm a big fan of,

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<v Speaker 1>he says, Bitcoin on day fifty one of sixty day

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<v Speaker 1>average cycle and not breaking down near its high. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a right translated cycle, indicating consolidation since March is

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<v Speaker 1>coming to an end bullet structural change without confirmation due

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<v Speaker 1>for a dip into November fifth, but there's never a guarantee. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>a couple things sent pack there. Right translated cycle means

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<v Speaker 1>it's the extended cycle he was predicting. Possibly, possibly he's

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<v Speaker 1>just throwing a thesis out there that it would be

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<v Speaker 1>a left translated cycle and we would have the blow

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<v Speaker 1>off top by the end of this year. But unfortunately

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<v Speaker 1>Bigcoin said no, We're going to stick to the plan

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<v Speaker 1>of the normal four year cycle. And the reason why

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<v Speaker 1>Bob and other people were saying left translated cycle is

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<v Speaker 1>because bitcoin was ahead of schedule at the beginning of

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<v Speaker 1>this year. It hit the new old time high before

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<v Speaker 1>the having it never did that in its history, and

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<v Speaker 1>the ETF buying was driving so much demand. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's good that bitcoin is slowing down and we're

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<v Speaker 1>back to a normal cycle pacing, and that will be

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<v Speaker 1>good because it allows it to build more momentum and

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<v Speaker 1>for more liquidity and all these things to come into play,

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<v Speaker 1>and it aligns with the rise of global liquidity, the

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<v Speaker 1>continuation of money printing, and all these things. So Bob

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<v Speaker 1>continues saying, basically, given where the four year cycle stands

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<v Speaker 1>about to begin year three an eight month range, we're

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<v Speaker 1>on the cusp of a breakout and resumption of the

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<v Speaker 1>bowl trend. So I'm in agree with Bob. He shared

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<v Speaker 1>different scenarios as far as the timeline. So one of

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<v Speaker 1>the first scenario's shared is where the breakout comes in

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<v Speaker 1>November post election. The other is the other two is

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<v Speaker 1>more of a pullback into November, but then a bounce

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<v Speaker 1>in November as well, and then the continuation, and the

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<v Speaker 1>one where it's really extended, where it just goes sideways

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<v Speaker 1>to like December and then breaks out. My hope is,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, at least the middle number two option versus

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<v Speaker 1>that long extended one. But it is what it is.

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<v Speaker 1>We have to be patient, right if we want to

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<v Speaker 1>make good returns, good make money in this market. We

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<v Speaker 1>have to be patient. That's the one thing we can

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<v Speaker 1>control our patients. We can't control what the market does

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<v Speaker 1>because there's different factors, but we can have an idea

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<v Speaker 1>of where we're headed based on charts and technicals and macro,

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<v Speaker 1>not our feelings, and be patient. That's the key. So

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<v Speaker 1>I hope you guys understand what I'm saying. Crypto wizards

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<v Speaker 1>said the Q four bull the fun is already starting.

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin has started Q four with a bullish impulse. The

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<v Speaker 1>parabolic move is coming. It's only a matter of time.

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<v Speaker 1>Patience pays. So once again, higher highs, higher lows. That's

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<v Speaker 1>a very good sign versus what was happening. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>from March down right we were forming the these lower

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<v Speaker 1>highs and lower lows. So I think we found the bottom.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's going to be a bit of a slow

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<v Speaker 1>stair step out of this scenario. So guys, things are aligning,

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<v Speaker 1>and as I wrote in my newsletter, as that DXY

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<v Speaker 1>starts breaking down and we head into more risk on environment,

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<v Speaker 1>the money printing from these governments continue, and we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>the historical correlation inverse correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>So the DXY is the main catalyst, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>the uncertainty of the election getting out of the way

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<v Speaker 1>will be very bullish for risk assets. And in addition

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<v Speaker 1>to global liquidity continue to rise and much more so.

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<v Speaker 1>The on chain metrics also show that whales are bullish.

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<v Speaker 1>So bitcoin supply and exchanges continues to drop. That's usually

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<v Speaker 1>an indicator that you see throughout the bullmarket cycle. When

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of bitcoin headed to the exchanges, that

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<v Speaker 1>means people are going to start selling, start dumping. When

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<v Speaker 1>it's coming off. It means there's no cell pressure or

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<v Speaker 1>less cell pressure, i should say. And whales and sharks

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<v Speaker 1>with ten plus bitcoin in their wallets continues to they

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<v Speaker 1>continue to accumulate, so that number is rising and that's

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<v Speaker 1>a very good sign. Now, quick word from our sponsor,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is Bitgo. Big Go is one of the

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<v Speaker 1>top tier crypto custodians in the industry. They provide wallet

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<v Speaker 1>services and much more. Bit goes headed up by Mike Belshie,

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<v Speaker 1>who's a web one point zero two point zero legend.

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<v Speaker 1>Many big brands and companies work with Bitgo. Bitstamp Exchange

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<v Speaker 1>uses Bitgo, Suie Pantero Capital, that's Dan moorehead twenty one cheers.

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<v Speaker 1>So bitgo helps to custody some of the bitcoin and

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<v Speaker 1>etheroum ETF assets, so they have a lot of great

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<v Speaker 1>solutions and folks, even Nike uses bit goes wallet services

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<v Speaker 1>for the NFTs and they have a self hosted wallet

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<v Speaker 1>for retail that you can leverage, guys. So bitgo once

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<v Speaker 1>again one of the most trusted custodians in the industry.

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<v Speaker 1>They've been through multiple bull and bear market cycles and

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<v Speaker 1>they are still here and they continue to build. So

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<v Speaker 1>if you'd like to learn more about bitgo, go to

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<v Speaker 1>bitgo dot com. Link will be in a description. Now, folks,

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<v Speaker 1>check this news out. The United States government has retrieved

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<v Speaker 1>over nineteen million dollars from a purported hack this week,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is according to Arkham and Zach XBT, who's

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<v Speaker 1>an amazing sleuth. So the government linked wallet has seemingly

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<v Speaker 1>recovered eighty eight percent of the lost funds within the

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<v Speaker 1>day of this security incident. The wallet linked to the

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<v Speaker 1>US government lost over twenty million dollars worth of stable

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<v Speaker 1>coins in eth on October twenty fourth, so this is interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>The funds included fourteen million dollars in the AUSDC stable coin.

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<v Speaker 1>I've never heard a stablecoin five point four million dollars

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<v Speaker 1>in USDC and one point one million dollars in USDT

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<v Speaker 1>and five hundred thousand dollars in ETH. So this is interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>I wonder who was hacking the hell out of them.

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<v Speaker 1>Though it's unclear at the time why the funds move.

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<v Speaker 1>Both Arkham and cryptosleuth zach XBTC noted that the fund's

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<v Speaker 1>movement suggested malicious activity. The perpetrator moved the funds to

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<v Speaker 1>non custodial applications in what appeared to be an attempt

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<v Speaker 1>to launder to stolen cryptocurrency. The funds themselves hadn't been

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<v Speaker 1>moved in over eight months before October twenty fourth, So

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<v Speaker 1>who the hell would try to hack a government a

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<v Speaker 1>wallet crypto wallet. I don't know, but that's a pretty

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<v Speaker 1>dumb move because you're going to have a target on

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<v Speaker 1>your back. They're gonna come after you, right, So pretty

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<v Speaker 1>interesting news there now. Vitalic Booterin outlines ways to reduce

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<v Speaker 1>etherm's bloat in Purge upgrade roadmap. So reducing the need

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<v Speaker 1>for every node to permanently store all history, in addition

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<v Speaker 1>to unneeded protocol features, could mitigate Ethereum's bloat, Bouterin said

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<v Speaker 1>title The Purge the Possible Roadmap is Booterin's fifth installment

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<v Speaker 1>in a series of contemplating Etherorem's future. Now, Etheroreum has

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<v Speaker 1>been getting incredible adoption, but also there's a ton of

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<v Speaker 1>layer twos on it because it has scalability issues and

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<v Speaker 1>it had the first move or advantage with smart contracts,

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<v Speaker 1>so I think that's why it has a lot of adoption.

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<v Speaker 1>But over time, if it's not able to fix some

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<v Speaker 1>of these issues and improve them, other layer one smart

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<v Speaker 1>contract platforms are going to come steal market share. And look,

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<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, I've said many times

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<v Speaker 1>there's going to be a multi chain world. There's not

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<v Speaker 1>going to be one blockchain rule them all right, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to see competitors like look, Solana, Avalanche, Suite,

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<v Speaker 1>Aptos and so forth. These are going to come take

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<v Speaker 1>market share. Now, as always, we don't know the future,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll have to see which one survive, right, because

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<v Speaker 1>not everything's going to survive f as we've seen this

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<v Speaker 1>in many different industries, whether it was Web one point

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<v Speaker 1>zero with the dot com boom and different websites and services,

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<v Speaker 1>Web two point zero with social networks and apps and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth. Not everything survives, and there's going to possibly

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<v Speaker 1>be just a handful of winners who are going to

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<v Speaker 1>at least for the smart contracts now, who are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be in the market. It's not going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a thousand smart contract block blockchains are going to be

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<v Speaker 1>in the market. That is possible, but not highly probable

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<v Speaker 1>right based on the history of adoption of technology and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth. But let's see what Bluterin is able to

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<v Speaker 1>come up with. This move ahead Base, which is the

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<v Speaker 1>layer two on a theorem, which was created by coinbase.

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<v Speaker 1>It's one day stable coin transfer volume outranks all other

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<v Speaker 1>chains for the first time. Boy, Coinbase made a smart

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<v Speaker 1>move when they built this thing, and they didn't put

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<v Speaker 1>a token on it, and they're collecting fees. It's boosting

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<v Speaker 1>their revenue. It's been getting a lot of adoptions, so

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<v Speaker 1>this is really amazing. So the volume of stable coins

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<v Speaker 1>transferred on Coinbase's base ethereum layer to blockchain in October

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<v Speaker 1>twenty six was hired in all other blockchains for the

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<v Speaker 1>first time. Are Tomis data shows thirty percent of all

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<v Speaker 1>stable coin volume took place on Base, a higher proportion

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<v Speaker 1>than typical leaders Ethereum, Salon and Tron. Now we know

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<v Speaker 1>Coinbase they leverage a lot of USDC, so that's really

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<v Speaker 1>beneficial for them. They're a big pusher of USDC and

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<v Speaker 1>nothing wrong with that USDC. It works really great, and

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<v Speaker 1>I've had Jerry Malayer on the podcast talking about USDC

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<v Speaker 1>and much more. So it makes sense that they're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>this type of activity and they also support USDT and

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<v Speaker 1>other stable coin so makes sense. Smart move by Coinbase,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's why this week we saw crack in exchange

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<v Speaker 1>that hey, we're going to launch our own blockchain as well,

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<v Speaker 1>call inc and I believe they're doing that on optimism,

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<v Speaker 1>which is another layer to on top of the theorems.

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<v Speaker 1>So Coinbase really set the standard here. Now, I know

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<v Speaker 1>Finance was the first to create this idea with Binance

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<v Speaker 1>smart chain, but Coinbase took it to another level. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we have to be realistic the amount of building that's

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<v Speaker 1>taking place and how they monetize it, and being smart

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<v Speaker 1>by not creating a token with it, I think really

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<v Speaker 1>has really worked out well for them. Now continuing the

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<v Speaker 1>news around Coinbase, guys, I'm really excited about this news

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm actually going to be testing this out, so

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<v Speaker 1>Brian Armstrong, So you have Coinbase tweeted out, create an

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<v Speaker 1>AI agent with a crypto wallet and optional X account

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<v Speaker 1>in less than three intes. Folks, we heard a bit

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<v Speaker 1>about this about a month ago where Coinbase tested the

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<v Speaker 1>first payment transfer between AI agents. Well, they've now built

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<v Speaker 1>the ability for you to create an AI agent. I

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<v Speaker 1>think this is going to be really game changing for

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<v Speaker 1>many different industries that you can have this automated AI

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<v Speaker 1>agent going out doing things and the creator of it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have to be constantly monitoring it. It has a wallet,

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<v Speaker 1>you can pay it, you can do stuff with it.

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<v Speaker 1>So I don't know, maybe like someone creates an AI

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<v Speaker 1>agent that answers questions about a certain topic on social

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<v Speaker 1>media X or something like that, and you can tip

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<v Speaker 1>it or pay it for the answer. You see where

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going with this, right, There's a lot of things

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<v Speaker 1>that could be automated and people can earn and it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have to be something crazy. Maybe you tip it

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<v Speaker 1>a couple bucks in USDC, I don't know, or pay

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<v Speaker 1>it a couple bucks in the u SEC. I hope

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<v Speaker 1>you guys see what I'm talking about. This is big

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<v Speaker 1>and this is why I've often said that AI and

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<v Speaker 1>blockchain are going to have a symbiotic relationship. They're going

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<v Speaker 1>to benefit each other because AI is going to help

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<v Speaker 1>enhance blockchain and Web three attributes and increase the automation,

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<v Speaker 1>while blockchain is going to be used to police AI

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<v Speaker 1>to make sure that these de fakes and all these

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<v Speaker 1>things don't get out of hand and we can verify things.

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<v Speaker 1>So pretty amazing stuff, right, folks. I'm really excited to

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<v Speaker 1>see what else is going to be generated out of this,

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm actually going to be researching this. How can

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<v Speaker 1>I leverage this to benefit you guys, you know, whatever

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<v Speaker 1>it may be, and create news services and products and

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<v Speaker 1>things like that. It's pretty amazing stuff. Anyway, folks, that's

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<v Speaker 1>the news. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the

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<v Speaker 1>thumbs up button. Don't forget to sign up for my

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<v Speaker 1>free email news that are on Substack. It's a great

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<v Speaker 1>way to support me in the podcast. Also, grab a

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<v Speaker 1>copy of my book, Rethinking Crypto, available on Amazon and

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<v Speaker 1>paperback and digital. Buy a copy for yourself, buy a

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<v Speaker 1>few copies for your friends and family, And if you

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<v Speaker 1>bought a copy already, please leave a five star rating

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<v Speaker 1>and review. It would really help me out Thank you guys,

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<v Speaker 1>shate you all, and I'll talk to you all later