Speaker 1: Why isn't bitcoin pumping? That's the big question everyone has. Well,
Speaker 1: I have some answers for you guys, as the charts
Speaker 1: are lining up and it shows we are on the
Speaker 1: cusp of a massive bull run again and the US
Speaker 1: government recovers some crypto I was stolen from them. I'll
Speaker 1: give you the details there. And there's some big updates
Speaker 1: around etherorem and coin Basis base layer two. Let's get
Speaker 1: into it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast.
Speaker 1: You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host,
Speaker 1: Tony Edward. On your way in. Please sit that subscribe
Speaker 1: button as well as the thumbs up button and leave
Speaker 1: a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform
Speaker 1: such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star
Speaker 1: rating and review. Folks, what the hell is happening with bitcoin?
Speaker 1: I want to share some thoughts here because Bitcoin, of
Speaker 1: course is the mover of the entire crypto market. It
Speaker 1: brings into liquidity so the all coins can move. So
Speaker 1: we need bitcoin to do something. And Bitcoin has been
Speaker 1: trying to break out and bust through seventy thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: It keeps hitting a ceiling. So what is holding it back,
Speaker 1: and over this weekend I put together a newsletter about
Speaker 1: this topic and I wanted to share what some other
Speaker 1: analysts are saying. But the main catalyst, folks, for what's
Speaker 1: holding Bitcoin back is the DXY, the Dollar Currency Index.
Speaker 1: We know there's an inverse correlation, and if you look
Speaker 1: at the Dollar Currency Index going back to September into
Speaker 1: the whole of October, it's been going parabolic. Look at
Speaker 1: the daily chart, green candle after green candle. This is
Speaker 1: what we wanted bitcoin to do, but unfortunately the DXY
Speaker 1: is doing it. And if you recall I was telling
Speaker 1: you guys that early in September, I thought the DXY
Speaker 1: would find some short term strength before rolling over. Well,
Speaker 1: it found more than short term strength. It's been going nuts.
Speaker 1: But the silver lining here, guys, is that it is
Speaker 1: extremely overbought by the textbook. You look at the daily RSI,
Speaker 1: it's above seventy. It's been hanging out around the top
Speaker 1: here for a long time. It just refuses to break down.
Speaker 1: But one thing's for sure. Let's put our emotions to
Speaker 1: the side. This is not sustainable. You look at any
Speaker 1: asset or currency, you look at these charts when it's
Speaker 1: in the overboughd zone. It can't stay there forever. It's
Speaker 1: going to break down, and the longer it stays up there,
Speaker 1: the stronger that breakdown is going to be. So I'm
Speaker 1: preparing for once the election and some of these macro
Speaker 1: factors come into alignment, you're going to see the dx
Speaker 1: y breakdown significantly, and that's going to be very bullish
Speaker 1: for Bitcoin in the all coins. I believe Bitcoin is
Speaker 1: going to start to go parabolic in November into December.
Speaker 1: Now I could be wrong. I don't have a crystal ball,
Speaker 1: but I'm forming my thesis on the data, not my
Speaker 1: feelings or emotions. What the data is telling us and Bitcoin.
Speaker 1: One thing that's very bullish is on the short term timeframe,
Speaker 1: it is forming higher highs and lower highs. That's a
Speaker 1: good sign. It's stare stepping its way out of this zone.
Speaker 1: Now it has to break through seventy that's key, right,
Speaker 1: So I think seventy k's around the corner where we
Speaker 1: can break through there and then it's going to go
Speaker 1: into price discovery. That's what we're waiting for, folks. And
Speaker 1: I know it's painstaking, I know it's annoying. Look, I've
Speaker 1: been here for multiple bull and bear market cycles. This
Speaker 1: is boring the hell out of here. Now. I'm not fearful,
Speaker 1: I'm just bored. I'm just like, oh, come on, like
Speaker 1: we want to get this show in the road. Right.
Speaker 1: I'm getting a bit impatient, but I'm not fearful because
Speaker 1: I see different factors, the macro, the technicals, and much
Speaker 1: more are aligning with the bull run continuing. But it's
Speaker 1: a patience game. It is so much of a patience game.
Speaker 1: And this is where smart money is usually able to
Speaker 1: outlast retail and people who are not financially educated. Right,
Speaker 1: people who are not financially educated follow headlines and then
Speaker 1: they sell, they dump, they run for the hills when
Speaker 1: they see the price pull back and there's some negative
Speaker 1: news versus saying, hey, I'm gonna buy to dip and
Speaker 1: continue at my position because I know where we're at
Speaker 1: in the timeline of this bull market. And unfortunately, unless
Speaker 1: you're financially educated doing your research, listening to the Thinking
Speaker 1: Crypto podcast and getting up the data information and look
Speaker 1: other off podcasts as well who are sharing quality information,
Speaker 1: you're like a plastic bag floating in the wind. Right.
Speaker 1: You need to be anchored and understand the data. The
Speaker 1: data is so important and understanding what's happening in the markets.
Speaker 1: So let me share what some different analysts are saying.
Speaker 1: So analyst Bob Lucas, who I'm a big fan of,
Speaker 1: he says, Bitcoin on day fifty one of sixty day
Speaker 1: average cycle and not breaking down near its high. This
Speaker 1: is a right translated cycle, indicating consolidation since March is
Speaker 1: coming to an end bullet structural change without confirmation due
Speaker 1: for a dip into November fifth, but there's never a guarantee. Okay,
Speaker 1: a couple things sent pack there. Right translated cycle means
Speaker 1: it's the extended cycle he was predicting. Possibly, possibly he's
Speaker 1: just throwing a thesis out there that it would be
Speaker 1: a left translated cycle and we would have the blow
Speaker 1: off top by the end of this year. But unfortunately
Speaker 1: Bigcoin said no, We're going to stick to the plan
Speaker 1: of the normal four year cycle. And the reason why
Speaker 1: Bob and other people were saying left translated cycle is
Speaker 1: because bitcoin was ahead of schedule at the beginning of
Speaker 1: this year. It hit the new old time high before
Speaker 1: the having it never did that in its history, and
Speaker 1: the ETF buying was driving so much demand. But I
Speaker 1: think it's good that bitcoin is slowing down and we're
Speaker 1: back to a normal cycle pacing, and that will be
Speaker 1: good because it allows it to build more momentum and
Speaker 1: for more liquidity and all these things to come into play,
Speaker 1: and it aligns with the rise of global liquidity, the
Speaker 1: continuation of money printing, and all these things. So Bob
Speaker 1: continues saying, basically, given where the four year cycle stands
Speaker 1: about to begin year three an eight month range, we're
Speaker 1: on the cusp of a breakout and resumption of the
Speaker 1: bowl trend. So I'm in agree with Bob. He shared
Speaker 1: different scenarios as far as the timeline. So one of
Speaker 1: the first scenario's shared is where the breakout comes in
Speaker 1: November post election. The other is the other two is
Speaker 1: more of a pullback into November, but then a bounce
Speaker 1: in November as well, and then the continuation, and the
Speaker 1: one where it's really extended, where it just goes sideways
Speaker 1: to like December and then breaks out. My hope is,
Speaker 1: you know, at least the middle number two option versus
Speaker 1: that long extended one. But it is what it is.
Speaker 1: We have to be patient, right if we want to
Speaker 1: make good returns, good make money in this market. We
Speaker 1: have to be patient. That's the one thing we can
Speaker 1: control our patients. We can't control what the market does
Speaker 1: because there's different factors, but we can have an idea
Speaker 1: of where we're headed based on charts and technicals and macro,
Speaker 1: not our feelings, and be patient. That's the key. So
Speaker 1: I hope you guys understand what I'm saying. Crypto wizards
Speaker 1: said the Q four bull the fun is already starting.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin has started Q four with a bullish impulse. The
Speaker 1: parabolic move is coming. It's only a matter of time.
Speaker 1: Patience pays. So once again, higher highs, higher lows. That's
Speaker 1: a very good sign versus what was happening. You know,
Speaker 1: from March down right we were forming the these lower
Speaker 1: highs and lower lows. So I think we found the bottom.
Speaker 1: But it's going to be a bit of a slow
Speaker 1: stair step out of this scenario. So guys, things are aligning,
Speaker 1: and as I wrote in my newsletter, as that DXY
Speaker 1: starts breaking down and we head into more risk on environment,
Speaker 1: the money printing from these governments continue, and we've seen
Speaker 1: the historical correlation inverse correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin.
Speaker 1: So the DXY is the main catalyst, and I think
Speaker 1: the uncertainty of the election getting out of the way
Speaker 1: will be very bullish for risk assets. And in addition
Speaker 1: to global liquidity continue to rise and much more so.
Speaker 1: The on chain metrics also show that whales are bullish.
Speaker 1: So bitcoin supply and exchanges continues to drop. That's usually
Speaker 1: an indicator that you see throughout the bullmarket cycle. When
Speaker 1: there's a lot of bitcoin headed to the exchanges, that
Speaker 1: means people are going to start selling, start dumping. When
Speaker 1: it's coming off. It means there's no cell pressure or
Speaker 1: less cell pressure, i should say. And whales and sharks
Speaker 1: with ten plus bitcoin in their wallets continues to they
Speaker 1: continue to accumulate, so that number is rising and that's
Speaker 1: a very good sign. Now, quick word from our sponsor,
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Speaker 1: bitgo dot com. Link will be in a description. Now, folks,
Speaker 1: check this news out. The United States government has retrieved
Speaker 1: over nineteen million dollars from a purported hack this week,
Speaker 1: and this is according to Arkham and Zach XBT, who's
Speaker 1: an amazing sleuth. So the government linked wallet has seemingly
Speaker 1: recovered eighty eight percent of the lost funds within the
Speaker 1: day of this security incident. The wallet linked to the
Speaker 1: US government lost over twenty million dollars worth of stable
Speaker 1: coins in eth on October twenty fourth, so this is interesting.
Speaker 1: The funds included fourteen million dollars in the AUSDC stable coin.
Speaker 1: I've never heard a stablecoin five point four million dollars
Speaker 1: in USDC and one point one million dollars in USDT
Speaker 1: and five hundred thousand dollars in ETH. So this is interesting.
Speaker 1: I wonder who was hacking the hell out of them.
Speaker 1: Though it's unclear at the time why the funds move.
Speaker 1: Both Arkham and cryptosleuth zach XBTC noted that the fund's
Speaker 1: movement suggested malicious activity. The perpetrator moved the funds to
Speaker 1: non custodial applications in what appeared to be an attempt
Speaker 1: to launder to stolen cryptocurrency. The funds themselves hadn't been
Speaker 1: moved in over eight months before October twenty fourth, So
Speaker 1: who the hell would try to hack a government a
Speaker 1: wallet crypto wallet. I don't know, but that's a pretty
Speaker 1: dumb move because you're going to have a target on
Speaker 1: your back. They're gonna come after you, right, So pretty
Speaker 1: interesting news there now. Vitalic Booterin outlines ways to reduce
Speaker 1: etherm's bloat in Purge upgrade roadmap. So reducing the need
Speaker 1: for every node to permanently store all history, in addition
Speaker 1: to unneeded protocol features, could mitigate Ethereum's bloat, Bouterin said
Speaker 1: title The Purge the Possible Roadmap is Booterin's fifth installment
Speaker 1: in a series of contemplating Etherorem's future. Now, Etheroreum has
Speaker 1: been getting incredible adoption, but also there's a ton of
Speaker 1: layer twos on it because it has scalability issues and
Speaker 1: it had the first move or advantage with smart contracts,
Speaker 1: so I think that's why it has a lot of adoption.
Speaker 1: But over time, if it's not able to fix some
Speaker 1: of these issues and improve them, other layer one smart
Speaker 1: contract platforms are going to come steal market share. And look,
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I've said many times
Speaker 1: there's going to be a multi chain world. There's not
Speaker 1: going to be one blockchain rule them all right, and
Speaker 1: we're going to see competitors like look, Solana, Avalanche, Suite,
Speaker 1: Aptos and so forth. These are going to come take
Speaker 1: market share. Now, as always, we don't know the future,
Speaker 1: and we'll have to see which one survive, right, because
Speaker 1: not everything's going to survive f as we've seen this
Speaker 1: in many different industries, whether it was Web one point
Speaker 1: zero with the dot com boom and different websites and services,
Speaker 1: Web two point zero with social networks and apps and
Speaker 1: so forth. Not everything survives, and there's going to possibly
Speaker 1: be just a handful of winners who are going to
Speaker 1: at least for the smart contracts now, who are going
Speaker 1: to be in the market. It's not going to be
Speaker 1: a thousand smart contract block blockchains are going to be
Speaker 1: in the market. That is possible, but not highly probable
Speaker 1: right based on the history of adoption of technology and
Speaker 1: so forth. But let's see what Bluterin is able to
Speaker 1: come up with. This move ahead Base, which is the
Speaker 1: layer two on a theorem, which was created by coinbase.
Speaker 1: It's one day stable coin transfer volume outranks all other
Speaker 1: chains for the first time. Boy, Coinbase made a smart
Speaker 1: move when they built this thing, and they didn't put
Speaker 1: a token on it, and they're collecting fees. It's boosting
Speaker 1: their revenue. It's been getting a lot of adoptions, so
Speaker 1: this is really amazing. So the volume of stable coins
Speaker 1: transferred on Coinbase's base ethereum layer to blockchain in October
Speaker 1: twenty six was hired in all other blockchains for the
Speaker 1: first time. Are Tomis data shows thirty percent of all
Speaker 1: stable coin volume took place on Base, a higher proportion
Speaker 1: than typical leaders Ethereum, Salon and Tron. Now we know
Speaker 1: Coinbase they leverage a lot of USDC, so that's really
Speaker 1: beneficial for them. They're a big pusher of USDC and
Speaker 1: nothing wrong with that USDC. It works really great, and
Speaker 1: I've had Jerry Malayer on the podcast talking about USDC
Speaker 1: and much more. So it makes sense that they're seeing
Speaker 1: this type of activity and they also support USDT and
Speaker 1: other stable coin so makes sense. Smart move by Coinbase,
Speaker 1: and that's why this week we saw crack in exchange
Speaker 1: that hey, we're going to launch our own blockchain as well,
Speaker 1: call inc and I believe they're doing that on optimism,
Speaker 1: which is another layer to on top of the theorems.
Speaker 1: So Coinbase really set the standard here. Now, I know
Speaker 1: Finance was the first to create this idea with Binance
Speaker 1: smart chain, but Coinbase took it to another level. I mean,
Speaker 1: we have to be realistic the amount of building that's
Speaker 1: taking place and how they monetize it, and being smart
Speaker 1: by not creating a token with it, I think really
Speaker 1: has really worked out well for them. Now continuing the
Speaker 1: news around Coinbase, guys, I'm really excited about this news
Speaker 1: and I'm actually going to be testing this out, so
Speaker 1: Brian Armstrong, So you have Coinbase tweeted out, create an
Speaker 1: AI agent with a crypto wallet and optional X account
Speaker 1: in less than three intes. Folks, we heard a bit
Speaker 1: about this about a month ago where Coinbase tested the
Speaker 1: first payment transfer between AI agents. Well, they've now built
Speaker 1: the ability for you to create an AI agent. I
Speaker 1: think this is going to be really game changing for
Speaker 1: many different industries that you can have this automated AI
Speaker 1: agent going out doing things and the creator of it
Speaker 1: doesn't have to be constantly monitoring it. It has a wallet,
Speaker 1: you can pay it, you can do stuff with it.
Speaker 1: So I don't know, maybe like someone creates an AI
Speaker 1: agent that answers questions about a certain topic on social
Speaker 1: media X or something like that, and you can tip
Speaker 1: it or pay it for the answer. You see where
Speaker 1: I'm going with this, right, There's a lot of things
Speaker 1: that could be automated and people can earn and it
Speaker 1: doesn't have to be something crazy. Maybe you tip it
Speaker 1: a couple bucks in USDC, I don't know, or pay
Speaker 1: it a couple bucks in the u SEC. I hope
Speaker 1: you guys see what I'm talking about. This is big
Speaker 1: and this is why I've often said that AI and
Speaker 1: blockchain are going to have a symbiotic relationship. They're going
Speaker 1: to benefit each other because AI is going to help
Speaker 1: enhance blockchain and Web three attributes and increase the automation,
Speaker 1: while blockchain is going to be used to police AI
Speaker 1: to make sure that these de fakes and all these
Speaker 1: things don't get out of hand and we can verify things.
Speaker 1: So pretty amazing stuff, right, folks. I'm really excited to
Speaker 1: see what else is going to be generated out of this,
Speaker 1: So I'm actually going to be researching this. How can
Speaker 1: I leverage this to benefit you guys, you know, whatever
Speaker 1: it may be, and create news services and products and
Speaker 1: things like that. It's pretty amazing stuff. Anyway, folks, that's
Speaker 1: the news. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the
Speaker 1: thumbs up button. Don't forget to sign up for my
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Speaker 1: way to support me in the podcast. Also, grab a
Speaker 1: copy of my book, Rethinking Crypto, available on Amazon and
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Speaker 1: few copies for your friends and family, And if you
Speaker 1: bought a copy already, please leave a five star rating
Speaker 1: and review. It would really help me out Thank you guys,
Speaker 1: shate you all, and I'll talk to you all later