1 00:00:04,879 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: What's going on. Thank you so much for listening to 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,640 this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon 3 00:00:09,679 --> 00:00:12,480 to three on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you 4 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:16,719 want exclusive content like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, 5 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:18,719 my daily show prep with all of the links, become 6 00:00:18,719 --> 00:00:22,359 a patron, go to dpeakclendershow dot com. Make sure you 7 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,920 hit the subscribe button. Get every episode for free right 8 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,320 to your smartphone or tablet, and again, thank you so 9 00:00:27,399 --> 00:00:30,480 much for your support. All Right, so I'm going to 10 00:00:30,519 --> 00:00:36,359 give you a term of an economic model, okay, and 11 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:41,439 I think this might be I don't know because I've 12 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:48,960 not heard people use this term, but I think this 13 00:00:49,079 --> 00:00:53,200 might be what we are seeing part of it with 14 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:58,960 the whole trade war tariff stuff. Okay. The term is 15 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:05,560 called that balanced trade, balanced trade, and this is an 16 00:01:05,599 --> 00:01:11,879 alternative economic model to free trade. You've heard free trade, 17 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:18,760 you probably have heard fair trade, but balanced trade might 18 00:01:18,799 --> 00:01:22,879 be the thing that is actually at the heart of 19 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:28,319 the stuff that we are seeing. This is according to 20 00:01:28,359 --> 00:01:31,359 I'm going to start with Wikipedia, but like, yes, I 21 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:36,280 am aware Wikipedia, I know, okay, but for sort of 22 00:01:36,439 --> 00:01:40,439 general descriptions, it's a good place to start. Okay. So 23 00:01:40,519 --> 00:01:46,560 here is the general description for balanced trade. Under this 24 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:51,280 system or this economic model, nations are required to provide 25 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:56,519 a fairly even reciprocal trade pattern. Remember we heard that 26 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:01,959 term reciprocal trade. Remember at the very beginning low those 27 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:06,239 many well like less than a week ago, that's when 28 00:02:06,239 --> 00:02:09,759 we started hearing this term reciprocal trade. And people were like, well, 29 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:11,919 I'm for that, and I am too, I would want 30 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,960 to see reciprocity. Sure, if they put a terriff on us, 31 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:20,479 we put a terraf on them. Fine, that's reciprocity. Mmmm. Yeah, 32 00:02:20,719 --> 00:02:23,800 it's a little bit more involved. And by a little bit, 33 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,520 I mean in economic terms a lot. Okay. So nations 34 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:31,240 are required to provide a fairly even reciprocal trade pattern. 35 00:02:32,039 --> 00:02:39,599 They cannot run large trade deficits or trade surpluses so 36 00:02:39,719 --> 00:02:42,879 high or low. You're not allowed. It's got to be even. 37 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:48,319 The concept was introduced by a guy named Michael McKeever 38 00:02:48,719 --> 00:02:56,639 sor Michael McKeever senior of the McKeever Institute. I did 39 00:02:56,639 --> 00:03:00,280 to get that gig anyway, the mckiev Institute of Economic 40 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:04,919 Policy Analysis. This was back in nineteen ninety six, okay, 41 00:03:05,879 --> 00:03:11,280 And according to this essay that he published, balanced trade 42 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,360 is a simple concept. Okay, just to heads up, beware 43 00:03:14,479 --> 00:03:18,560 of any economist who tells you that the thing that 44 00:03:18,599 --> 00:03:21,680 they're about to describe as a simple concept. Usually when 45 00:03:21,719 --> 00:03:25,080 I hear oh, it's a simple concept, it usually involves 46 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,439 like another I don't know, half an hour of explanation 47 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,360 to me, and it's all very simple to the economist's mind, 48 00:03:31,439 --> 00:03:36,080 but not so much to mine. So, balanced trade is 49 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:40,879 a simple concept which says that a country should import 50 00:03:41,319 --> 00:03:45,439 only as much as it exports so that trade and 51 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:51,400 money flows are balanced. A country can balance its trade 52 00:03:52,199 --> 00:03:55,360 either on a trading partner basis, in which total money 53 00:03:55,400 --> 00:04:03,000 flows between two countries, or it can balance the overall 54 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,439 trade and money flows so that a trade deficit with 55 00:04:06,479 --> 00:04:12,000 one country is balanced by a trade surplus with another country. Okay, 56 00:04:12,319 --> 00:04:15,719 so do you follow that? So, like, we have a 57 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:22,319 trade deficit with China, and we can try to balance 58 00:04:22,399 --> 00:04:25,920 that trade just with China, or we could offset that 59 00:04:26,519 --> 00:04:30,199 with trade from every other nation on the planet that 60 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,800 so it all equals out, so there's zero trade deficit. 61 00:04:34,879 --> 00:04:43,399 That's balanced trade. Okay, that's the economic model. Balanced trade 62 00:04:43,439 --> 00:04:47,319 as a concept has also been suggested. So that was 63 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,839 McKiever back in nineteen ninety six. But it has also 64 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,839 been suggested in the past by a guy named Warren Buffet, 65 00:04:55,639 --> 00:05:01,279 sorry Buffett Warren Buffett in two thousand and three in 66 00:05:01,399 --> 00:05:05,199 a in a Fortune magazine article in November two thousand 67 00:05:05,199 --> 00:05:08,319 and three where he proposed, see this is what I 68 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,720 mean by always be careful when economists tell you that 69 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,680 something is a simple concept. So here was Warren Buffett. 70 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:21,639 He proposed a system of import certificates or ices. Not 71 00:05:21,759 --> 00:05:24,480 to be confused with what the Republicans do all the time. 72 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:29,920 That's a different kind of seizing. This is I see 73 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:36,279 import certificates. Exporters would receive one dollar of ices for 74 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:41,079 each one dollar of goods they export. Now this is 75 00:05:41,079 --> 00:05:44,759 all goods, just to heads up here, not services. And 76 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:47,959 that's actually part of the problem in dealing with some 77 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:53,920 of this trade stuff is because the US specializes in 78 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,639 a lot of exporting of the services more so than 79 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,360 the goods. Right, so they we don't export goods. We do. 80 00:06:01,439 --> 00:06:06,519 We export a lot of goods, but services is not 81 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:11,439 included in all of these debates about the tariffs and 82 00:06:11,519 --> 00:06:17,839 the trading. It's about goods. So Buffett's idea is that 83 00:06:17,879 --> 00:06:23,360 you create essentially a cap and trade system does that 84 00:06:23,399 --> 00:06:29,439 sound familiar? Anybody who was hanging around during Clinton Gore 85 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,920 would know that, right. The whole cap and trade system 86 00:06:32,959 --> 00:06:36,959 that they developed for carbon credits, except these would be 87 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:43,680 import certificates. One dollar of goods gets you one dollar 88 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,120 of a certificate. So let's say a certificate is a dollar, 89 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:53,279 and that's a one for one. Importers would be required 90 00:06:53,319 --> 00:06:57,199 to present one dollar of ICs for every one dollar 91 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,920 of goods that they import. This would limit the value 92 00:07:00,959 --> 00:07:07,000 of imports to at most the value of exports and 93 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,600 presumably exactly the value of imports, assuming no leakage, and 94 00:07:10,639 --> 00:07:15,519 create a market of exporters to sell the ICs to 95 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:20,040 the importers, right, so then they could sell Do you 96 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:24,240 understand how this is working. It's a simple concept, people, 97 00:07:24,439 --> 00:07:29,079 It's very simple. Okay. So you have let's say, let's 98 00:07:29,079 --> 00:07:35,839 say I am over in uh you know, Ptastan, and 99 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,319 I'm really good at making burlap sacks for my people. 100 00:07:40,639 --> 00:07:45,480 We're not okay, we're not very advanced people, but we 101 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:49,800 make burlap sacks, which we also wear as clothing and 102 00:07:50,279 --> 00:07:55,040 we host our three legged races. But we have these 103 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:56,839 we have these sacks, and it just so happens that 104 00:07:56,959 --> 00:08:00,439 you need a bunch of these sacks to Well, actually 105 00:08:00,439 --> 00:08:03,279 you don't. But let's say I export a bunch of 106 00:08:03,319 --> 00:08:07,480 the sacks over into your country. Then you get the IC, 107 00:08:08,839 --> 00:08:11,160 or I get the IC, you get the sacks. Now 108 00:08:11,199 --> 00:08:15,639 I have these certificates, then I can sell the certificates 109 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:23,160 to the importer. Okay, all right, So that was Warren 110 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:29,560 Buffett's idea on the balanced trade idea. Then there was 111 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,960 also a guy named William Hawkins. William Hawkins in two 112 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:39,360 thousand and two, he advocated direct limitations on imports. The 113 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,720 Bush administration should be taking direct measures to reduce the 114 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:46,159 trade deficit, which means limiting imports both to defend the 115 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,679 dollars integrity and America's economic strength. Okay, that was O two. 116 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:56,600 And then there was a very extensive argument made for 117 00:08:56,799 --> 00:09:05,840 balanced trade by three brothers, Raymond, Howard and Jesse Richman. 118 00:09:08,399 --> 00:09:13,679 That's their name, Raymond rich Man, Howard rich Man, or 119 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:21,240 maybe Richmond Jesse Richmond. They did actually two books. One 120 00:09:22,519 --> 00:09:26,519 was published in two thousand and eight, Trading Away Our 121 00:09:26,639 --> 00:09:33,559 Future Right, and then in twenty fourteen they published another 122 00:09:33,639 --> 00:09:39,559 book called Balanced Trade, Ending the Unbearable Costs of America's 123 00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:44,679 Trade deficits. That's twenty fourteen, Okay, so two years before 124 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:51,480 Trump wins and they propose what's called a scaled tariff. 125 00:09:52,399 --> 00:09:56,200 They say a scaled tariff should be applied to all 126 00:09:56,440 --> 00:10:01,039 imported goods from trade surplus country that have had a 127 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:04,919 sizeable trade surplus with America over the most recent four 128 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:09,279 economic quarters. The tariff rate would be designed to take 129 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:15,080 in a portion of the bilateral trade deficit. Except they 130 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:22,120 are accounting for goods and services in their model. Okay. 131 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:27,679 In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Robert Littheiser, this was 132 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:32,200 the Reagan guy. He said that his views have evolved 133 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:39,120 from free trade to fair trade and now to balanced trade. 134 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,000 I think this is what's going on all right. So 135 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,519 spring is here a time of renewal and celebrations. You've 136 00:10:45,519 --> 00:10:49,320 got graduations, weddings, anniversaries and the special days for mom 137 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,519 and dad. Your family's making memories that are going to 138 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,200 last a lifetime. But let me ask you, are all 139 00:10:54,279 --> 00:10:57,240 of those treasured moments from days gone by? 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Creative Video 150 00:11:33,759 --> 00:11:37,879 Preserving Family Memories since nineteen ninety seven. Located in mint Hill, 151 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,799 just off four eighty five, mail orders are accepted to 152 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,759 get all the details that create a video dot com. 153 00:11:45,039 --> 00:11:47,919 You've heard me say it, I am a why guy. 154 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,320 I like to know why. And one of the things 155 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:57,919 that has concerned me the most in this tariff issue 156 00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:01,840 and the moves by the Trump administration is I'm trying 157 00:12:01,879 --> 00:12:04,559 to figure out the why. What is the reasoning? Because 158 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:09,679 I have heard all of these different explanations from people 159 00:12:09,759 --> 00:12:12,679 that I thought would have known, and then of course 160 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:15,240 there's all the speculation from people that don't know, and 161 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,840 I am in that camp. I don't know what all 162 00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:24,279 of the different goals are but and like, for example, 163 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:28,919 the World Trade Organization, is it possible that all of 164 00:12:28,919 --> 00:12:32,320 this is going to rip apart the World Trade Organization? 165 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,279 They haven't said that. I've heard other people speculate that 166 00:12:36,279 --> 00:12:40,200 that's what could be coming. Because the WTO has not 167 00:12:40,279 --> 00:12:46,480 been particularly helpful in reining in the transgressions of China 168 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:50,559 when it steals our stuff, right, it dumps their products 169 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,600 and all that. Like, the WTO does not seem to 170 00:12:53,639 --> 00:12:58,399 be an effective mechanism. But nobody is saying that. They're 171 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:00,759 just saying, trust us, we have the these ideas this 172 00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:02,960 is all going to be great for America, and that 173 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:06,120 may be true, but I don't know what it is 174 00:13:07,279 --> 00:13:11,919 they're trying to do. So I cannot argue with this 175 00:13:12,279 --> 00:13:14,399 on the specifics because I don't know the why. So 176 00:13:14,759 --> 00:13:22,159 when I came across this, this balanced trade economic model, 177 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,480 this idea that's been kicking around, and you know who 178 00:13:25,519 --> 00:13:29,320 is a proponent of the balanced trade thing, Peter Navarro, 179 00:13:30,639 --> 00:13:35,759 who is in the Trump administration. And so now it's like, okay, well, 180 00:13:35,759 --> 00:13:39,519 that seems like a dot that can be connected because 181 00:13:39,519 --> 00:13:42,000 he's out there, you know, beating the drum for this approach. 182 00:13:42,039 --> 00:13:45,399 So maybe that's what we're seeing a balanced trade economic 183 00:13:45,519 --> 00:13:51,000 model that's being launched. And it also then ties into 184 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,840 an interview that I saw on a podcast called trigger 185 00:13:54,879 --> 00:13:58,600 Nometry and it's free. You can go to YouTube watch it. 186 00:13:58,639 --> 00:14:03,759 I highly recommend the podcast. And a guy by the 187 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:07,759 name of Jeff Rickards was on there and he was 188 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,240 talking about this same concept and the use of the tariffs. 189 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,279 I've got some audio from that I will play later 190 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,399 in the program. So that's why I feel like, oh, okay, 191 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,639 now I feel like I'm on the trail to maybe 192 00:14:22,159 --> 00:14:25,039 understanding the why. Let me go over and get Ralph 193 00:14:25,039 --> 00:14:28,080 on the program. Hello Ralph, how are you doing well? 194 00:14:28,159 --> 00:14:30,039 Speaker 2: You know, I'd like to kind of put it an 195 00:14:30,039 --> 00:14:35,120 analogy of a sovereign listener and everything. You know, did 196 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,440 you ever go to like the wind Dixie. 197 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:39,679 Speaker 1: I have been to a wind Dixie. 198 00:14:39,759 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 2: Yes, okay, Now you remember the program they had. They 199 00:14:43,639 --> 00:14:46,320 had the sn H green stamp. So I go in 200 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,399 there and buy a bunch of their products that they 201 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,600 have for sale, and then I get to collect these 202 00:14:52,639 --> 00:14:55,360 green stamps. Now, you know, I could either trade them 203 00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:58,840 to somebody else that needed something really bad out of 204 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:02,600 that catalog, or I could save up and use them 205 00:15:02,679 --> 00:15:06,279 for myself. Now, you know, you would think Tom tell Us, 206 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:10,679 after his rant yesterday about putting the throne on this 207 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,399 foot on the throat of the ambassador, looks like he 208 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:20,080 would know about these economic uh things we have down 209 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,440 in the south that are similar to this trade out. 210 00:15:22,519 --> 00:15:25,039 Speaker 1: Yet well he's not, but he well, but Ralph, the 211 00:15:25,039 --> 00:15:28,440 problem is, they haven't. They haven't done anything like that. 212 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,919 They haven't introduced any kind of a regime of these 213 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:37,399 import certificates. They haven't. They haven't suggested that they're talking 214 00:15:37,399 --> 00:15:40,519 about doing deals. So I like they're like they're talking 215 00:15:40,559 --> 00:15:42,600 and Bessent was on talking about how we got all 216 00:15:42,679 --> 00:15:45,039 these countries. They are going to do bilateral deals and 217 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,279 if that's the focus they're going to now they're going 218 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:52,000 to negotiate individual deals with every single country and they're 219 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:56,120 going to essentially abandon the World Trade Organization approach and 220 00:15:56,159 --> 00:15:59,799 they're going to do just country to country deals. That's 221 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:02,120 the to be what they are talking about. They've not 222 00:16:02,159 --> 00:16:05,080 introduced anything like that. What you're describing with the stamps 223 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:11,080 is very similar to the old Marlborough miles and the 224 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,360 yeah and the camel cash for the smokers, and you 225 00:16:15,399 --> 00:16:17,840 could take the they would give you a little Joe 226 00:16:17,919 --> 00:16:20,919 Camel dollar on the pack of a cigarette box, and 227 00:16:20,919 --> 00:16:22,519 then you would collect them and you'd mail them in 228 00:16:22,519 --> 00:16:24,159 and you would get an ash tray or something. 229 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 3: Well. 230 00:16:25,639 --> 00:16:28,759 Speaker 2: Also, you know they besides the terraff they get us 231 00:16:28,799 --> 00:16:33,559 with the fat tacks and everything. These countries just slap 232 00:16:33,639 --> 00:16:36,360 on an extra twenty or thirty percent. So you know, 233 00:16:36,559 --> 00:16:40,360 it's really mind bottling that when we go to trying 234 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,960 to sell something over there. I think you know, on 235 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,879 the radio yesterday they were talking about army guy called 236 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,679 in and said, like, we charged one hundred and twenty 237 00:16:49,679 --> 00:16:53,480 eight dollars, I mean a dollar twenty eight to let 238 00:16:53,639 --> 00:16:57,480 Germany import these medical baskets, and then they turn around 239 00:16:57,519 --> 00:17:00,240 and charge just to sell them the same basket one 240 00:17:00,279 --> 00:17:01,440 hundred and twenty eight dollars. 241 00:17:01,519 --> 00:17:04,839 Speaker 3: Jude, you know it's mind bowling. 242 00:17:05,079 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 2: And we why do we still give China and India 243 00:17:09,799 --> 00:17:13,799 rural status where they can basically, you know, fire all 244 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,559 the coal plants they want to not have the clean coal, 245 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,200 and can all these green people go over there to 246 00:17:20,279 --> 00:17:23,319 protest them dumping stuff in the ocean. That would be 247 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:24,720 something I. 248 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,559 Speaker 1: Think you're telling me. I don't know if the World 249 00:17:26,559 --> 00:17:29,480 Trade organization is going that deep into like the net 250 00:17:29,559 --> 00:17:31,319 zero stuff, I don't know. I mean, I know there 251 00:17:31,319 --> 00:17:33,279 are people that would want to have all of that 252 00:17:33,319 --> 00:17:36,039 wrapped in together. But this is why I said from 253 00:17:36,039 --> 00:17:37,880 the very beginning, Ralph, and I appreciate the call I 254 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:39,440 got to go to news, but that's what I've said 255 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:43,480 from the very beginning, is that I am for free 256 00:17:43,519 --> 00:17:47,400 trade if it is fair. And if you're Germany slapping 257 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,519 one hundred and twenty eight dollars tax on my product, 258 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:54,359 but I can't sell into you or you get to 259 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:58,079 sell your product in my country for one hundredth of 260 00:17:58,079 --> 00:18:02,559 that cost, that's not fair. Yeah. Absolutely So if Trump's 261 00:18:02,559 --> 00:18:05,680 going to do just bilateral deals with every single country 262 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,240 on Earth, one to one, then I mean, and that's 263 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:14,000 what Bessent has said apparently, and if the balanced trade 264 00:18:14,039 --> 00:18:17,839 approach is what we are actually seeing, then there are 265 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,200 people who have kind of fleshed out some of these 266 00:18:20,279 --> 00:18:23,559 numbers for us. Here's a great idea. 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Call or text eight two eight, three 286 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,400 six seven seventy sixty eight or check out all there 287 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,319 is to offer at Cabins Offashville dot com and make 288 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,480 memories that'll last a lifetime. Thank you for the suggested 289 00:19:37,559 --> 00:19:44,240 name of my exporting company, Vandalay Industries. Much better than yeah, 290 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,079 much better than what I came up with, So thank 291 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,319 you for that. I've had several recommendations, So I guess 292 00:19:49,319 --> 00:19:52,640 that's a It's weird that so many people would would 293 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,400 come up with that same name. I don't it's weird. 294 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,319 Keith says. I worked in finance for years. However, I 295 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,920 am not an expert in politics. I have been researching 296 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,519 and analyzing tariffs for the past two weeks trying to 297 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,279 educate myself, and I cannot find any benefits for our country. 298 00:20:12,519 --> 00:20:16,279 Maybe somebody can educate me. What is Trump's checkmate play? 299 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,279 I just don't see it. Well, I don't know if 300 00:20:19,319 --> 00:20:23,960 there's a checkmate play per se. I think see again, 301 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:27,079 we are all left to speculate as to what as 302 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,799 to what's going on. And that's why when I saw 303 00:20:30,839 --> 00:20:41,240 this balanced trade theory, which was sent to me, I 304 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:45,759 will say by my brother who sent me a link to. 305 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:50,839 And my brother works in import exports stuff and he 306 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,319 sent me a link. It was to a site that 307 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,519 I'm not and yes I did open it because it 308 00:20:55,559 --> 00:20:57,799 came from him. And he talked to me about it. 309 00:20:57,839 --> 00:21:00,680 But I will not open links in emails unless you 310 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:05,440 are related to me. But he sent me this link, 311 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,440 and so that's what set me on the path I 312 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,559 had to go. I had to go chase down other 313 00:21:11,599 --> 00:21:14,720 stuff to confirm that this was not, you know, just 314 00:21:14,759 --> 00:21:20,839 some rantings of a right wing website. But and here's why, 315 00:21:20,839 --> 00:21:24,839 because they quote it's from life sitenews dot com. Okay, 316 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:29,559 and it's kind of like it's like Wikipedia. I will 317 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,519 use it as a launch pad, like, tell me what 318 00:21:32,559 --> 00:21:35,920 you're talking about, and then I'll find the key terms, 319 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,200 and then I do what's called lateral research by opening 320 00:21:38,279 --> 00:21:40,279 up other tabs in the browser and just keep working 321 00:21:40,319 --> 00:21:43,759 your way and chasing stuff down, you know, laterally and 322 00:21:43,799 --> 00:21:47,079 then when you get your answers, pull it all together 323 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,960 and then close all the tabs and then keep going right. 324 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,720 So and it's like, here's the first thing. It's like 325 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,920 they're quoting a substack writer named Tree of Woe. Okay, 326 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,200 Like I don't even know who this person is, Okay, 327 00:22:00,319 --> 00:22:03,480 so this is random. They turned and they turned it 328 00:22:03,519 --> 00:22:07,039 into a quote, news story and article on this website. 329 00:22:07,079 --> 00:22:09,000 So it's based So it's a blog let's just call 330 00:22:09,039 --> 00:22:13,640 it that. So this blogger says talking about this book, 331 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,400 balance Trade, ending the unbearable cost of America's trade deficits. 332 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:23,200 The book challenges the orthodox theory that free trade is 333 00:22:23,319 --> 00:22:27,839 always beneficial and argues for an alternate policy that they 334 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:31,599 call balanced trade. And they write in the book quote, 335 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,920 for the last several decades, the United States has generally 336 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:40,559 played a cooperative strategy on trade with China and others, 337 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,839 and US markets have been opened to Chinese goods. American 338 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,839 leaders selected free trade on the basis of the false 339 00:22:47,839 --> 00:22:52,079 hope that China would reciprocate by opening its markets to 340 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:58,200 American firms. Right, which would be, by the way, free trade. Right, 341 00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,519 when when both countries are open, both markets are open 342 00:23:01,559 --> 00:23:04,559 to each other, that is free trade. The problem is 343 00:23:05,839 --> 00:23:08,920 that it doesn't actually happen. Free trade has never really 344 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:16,480 been tried. They're not playing on a level playing field. 345 00:23:16,559 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 2: Right. 346 00:23:17,519 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 1: That's been the criticism my entire life. So Trump's tariffs 347 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,119 are calculated. Get this, remember the formula. I went over this. 348 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:27,720 It was like, what is this formula? Where do they 349 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,799 come up with this? And people were mocking it and 350 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:34,759 questioning it doesn't make any sense. But get this Trump's 351 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:40,279 formula is the exact same formula that's in this book. 352 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:48,359 I don't think that's a coincidence. I think that the 353 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,960 people in the Trump administration, and maybe Donald Trump himself, 354 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,400 I think they have read this book. I think this 355 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,160 is what they are implementing at this stage. I am like, 356 00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,119 I could be wrong on this, but that's what it 357 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,880 looks like. The only difference in the formulas is that 358 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:07,440 Trump added a national tariff of ten percent as a baseline, 359 00:24:07,759 --> 00:24:11,000 and that wasn't in the book. But that apparently comes 360 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:18,759 from a guy named Ian Fletcher, and he's got some 361 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,680 He had some article or something called free trade doesn't work, 362 00:24:23,039 --> 00:24:26,200 and that's what that was a theory advanced by him, 363 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,000 the ten percent baseline. So it seems like this is 364 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,279 what they are trying to implement. Why these two models. 365 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,279 The difference between the two is fundamentally a difference in priorities. 366 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:42,759 Ian Fletcher prioritizes protection of key industries, while the Richmonds 367 00:24:43,079 --> 00:24:49,519 emphasize reciprocity in trade flows, so to achieve balanced trade. 368 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,759 It's not a reciprocity of tariffs, it's a reciprocity of 369 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,480 trade flows. That's different, all right, If you're listening to 370 00:24:58,519 --> 00:25:00,240 this show. You know I try to keep up all 371 00:25:00,279 --> 00:25:02,200 sorts of current events, and I know you do too. 372 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,880 And you've probably heard me say get your news from 373 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:09,559 multiple sources. Why Well, because it's how you detect media bias, 374 00:25:09,599 --> 00:25:12,119 which is why I've been so impressed with ground News. 375 00:25:12,519 --> 00:25:15,920 It's an app, and it's a website, and it combines 376 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,039 news from around the world in one place, so you 377 00:25:18,079 --> 00:25:21,440 can compare coverage and verify information. You can check it 378 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:26,039 out at check dot ground, dot news slash pete. I 379 00:25:26,079 --> 00:25:28,960 put the link in the podcast description too. I started 380 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,720 using ground News a few months ago and more recently 381 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:33,880 chose to work with them as an affiliate because it 382 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,799 lets me see clearly how stories get covered and by whom. 383 00:25:38,079 --> 00:25:41,039 The blind spot feature shows you which stories get ignored 384 00:25:41,039 --> 00:25:44,000 by the left and the right. See for yourself. Check 385 00:25:44,079 --> 00:25:48,559 dot ground, dot news slash pete. Subscribe through that link 386 00:25:48,599 --> 00:25:51,480 and you'll get fifteen percent off any subscription. I use 387 00:25:51,519 --> 00:25:54,680 the Vantage plan to get unlimited access to every feature. 388 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,640 Your subscription then not only helps my podcast, but it 389 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,119 also supports ground News as they make the media a 390 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,559 landscape more transparent. All right, let me jump over and 391 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,119 talk with Mike. Hello, Mike, Welcome to the program. 392 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,400 Speaker 3: How are you, hey, Pete Nis afternoon. How are you doing. 393 00:26:09,599 --> 00:26:10,680 Speaker 1: I'm all right. What's going on? 394 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,640 Speaker 3: I was saying about the news and bruise. I'm not 395 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,160 sure how I'd be received if I came over there, 396 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:20,000 but you know it sounds like well Jackie caller. 397 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 1: Jackie came out one uh to one past event and 398 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,400 we mixed it up a little bit. So you are 399 00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:26,599 free to attend. 400 00:26:27,799 --> 00:26:29,559 Speaker 3: Here. I can stand in the corner if we needed to. 401 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:34,480 I suppose, yeah, But I wanted to follow up on 402 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,359 your question that you asked the last half hour and 403 00:26:38,519 --> 00:26:40,839 are still trying to pose, and that is trying to 404 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,759 figure out why, behind all behind all these policies. I'm 405 00:26:44,759 --> 00:26:46,880 going to tell you I'm as mystified as you are. 406 00:26:47,039 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 1: What about the balanced trade, this balanced trade economic model. 407 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:58,799 Speaker 3: Well that might be part of it again, but the 408 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,559 balance trade, I mean this, this, what he perceives is this, 409 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:06,799 he Trump proceeds this in balanced trade. All has to 410 00:27:06,799 --> 00:27:11,920 do with goods, and we export a ton of stuff 411 00:27:12,039 --> 00:27:15,359 to the rest of the world that are not necessarily 412 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,839 manufactured goods, but extreme it's extremely profitable. We sent out 413 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,000 upon a bunch of software. We sent out a bunch 414 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:27,519 of software servicing, we sent out a bunch of entertainment. Uh, 415 00:27:28,279 --> 00:27:30,839 China is not going to let our films profersonal services. 416 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,279 Speaker 1: They're not. They banned our Hollywood films. Now China's like, 417 00:27:33,319 --> 00:27:35,279 no more of your Hollywood films, which I guess means 418 00:27:35,319 --> 00:27:38,559 we're allowed to mention Taiwan in Hollywood again. So that'll 419 00:27:38,599 --> 00:27:39,000 be nice. 420 00:27:39,079 --> 00:27:42,799 Speaker 3: But that would that would be nice. And you know, 421 00:27:42,839 --> 00:27:47,039 and and there's no question that there are specific instances 422 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:52,799 of treating situations that need to be addressed. In China, 423 00:27:52,839 --> 00:27:57,200 of course, I think is the biggest uh offender of that. 424 00:27:58,039 --> 00:28:04,319 And the strategy that had been used was to frighteningly 425 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:09,400 unite the rest of the globe against China because their 426 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:14,279 predatory practices, especially in stealing intellectual property, that's hurting all 427 00:28:14,279 --> 00:28:16,279 these other countries as well. 428 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,319 Speaker 1: So let me give you the response, Well, i'll give 429 00:28:18,319 --> 00:28:20,880 you the response to that is that if other countries 430 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:25,319 are being harmed by Chinese unfair trade practices, then that 431 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:31,279 is on those countries to negotiate against China to negotiate 432 00:28:31,319 --> 00:28:35,480 their own deals. We are negotiating our own deal. That's 433 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,480 what our presidents should be doing well. 434 00:28:39,119 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 3: I get that response, and I guess my response to 435 00:28:42,519 --> 00:28:46,599 that would be, you know, there's a difference between making 436 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:50,680 America first and making America alone. No. 437 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:56,599 Speaker 1: Look, I've expressed my concern about this effort pushing countries 438 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,480 into the arms of China, no doubt about. 439 00:28:58,319 --> 00:29:01,359 Speaker 3: It, no question about it. There was one thing though, 440 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,920 that the President said on his way back from his 441 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,559 golf tournament this weekend that he's getting interview on the plane, 442 00:29:07,799 --> 00:29:10,200 and we wounded it and wrote it down because to me, 443 00:29:10,279 --> 00:29:12,400 it told me a lot and I love your take 444 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,640 on it. And he was, you know, asked a little 445 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,759 bit about, you know, the motivations and stuff, and he's 446 00:29:19,799 --> 00:29:21,960 talking about all the good stuff that will happen after 447 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:23,920 the you know, in this whole little bit of pain. 448 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:29,279 He said, eventually it will be meaning us. Eventually, uh, 449 00:29:29,319 --> 00:29:33,079 we will be a country like no other. It will 450 00:29:33,079 --> 00:29:40,359 be the most dominant country economically in the world. And 451 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:45,880 I'm thinking to myself, well, congratulations, you've already treated achieved 452 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:51,119 that we are by far the most dominant economic country 453 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:51,680 in the world. 454 00:29:51,759 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 1: I think people would disagree with that. I think there 455 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,519 are people that would disagree with that because as COVID 456 00:29:56,519 --> 00:29:59,319 showed us with the disruption and the supply chains, we 457 00:29:59,359 --> 00:30:01,680 are at the mercy you have so many other foreign countries. 458 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:03,599 That doesn't make us dominant. 459 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,920 Speaker 3: Well, and as was everybody else as well. 460 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:09,559 Speaker 1: Right, I know, But I think that's what that's why 461 00:30:09,559 --> 00:30:12,640 people would push back on the idea that we already 462 00:30:12,799 --> 00:30:16,720 are at this status. And I think a country that 463 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,880 is buffered from that kind of disruption that will that 464 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:25,279 would cripple us, like for example, the pharmaceuticals. Right, we 465 00:30:25,359 --> 00:30:28,759 have like people who are on you know, all these 466 00:30:28,799 --> 00:30:32,400 like blood pressure medicine, and that stuff is manufactured in China. 467 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:38,480 If China locks that down, you're talking deaths, right and right. 468 00:30:38,559 --> 00:30:41,519 So that's that's one of those things that we probably 469 00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:44,200 shouldn't be relying on a foreign country for. 470 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 3: And it goes back to what I was saying. And 471 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:53,440 if there's specific concerns that are rightly had about pharmaceuticals, 472 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:59,480 about supply chains issues in certain instances, there's certain industries 473 00:30:59,559 --> 00:31:03,200 you want remote like you know we have now developed, 474 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:07,839 although it's getting dismountled, a real focus on a semiconductor 475 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:13,359 and being leading the world and Michael chip technology and production. 476 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:21,119 You focus on those individual issues and industries as opposed 477 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:25,680 to taking this blunt acts that is clearly you know, 478 00:31:26,519 --> 00:31:32,480 resulting in some huge widespread pain throughout not just our 479 00:31:32,519 --> 00:31:35,839 economy but throughout the world. I can not making tense 480 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:36,039 to it. 481 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,759 Speaker 1: My understanding of that is much like with all of 482 00:31:38,799 --> 00:31:41,039 the things that Donald Trump does, which he outlines in 483 00:31:41,079 --> 00:31:43,720 his book The Art of the Deal is you create 484 00:31:43,759 --> 00:31:46,960 as much chaos in order to give yourself as much 485 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:51,279 leverage as possible when going into the negotiation, right, and 486 00:31:51,319 --> 00:31:54,880 then when you're in the negotiation in a bilateral fashion, 487 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,119 it's just now you and me, you know, country mic 488 00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,920 versus country Pete, and we sit down and we're like, okay, 489 00:32:00,279 --> 00:32:03,880 let's work through these issues. You got this non tariff barrier. 490 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:08,039 It's a trade barrier on my product going into your market, 491 00:32:08,359 --> 00:32:11,720 and you want your product to be you know, accessing 492 00:32:11,799 --> 00:32:15,160 mine for no barrier, and that's not fair. So what 493 00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,279 are you going to like what is what are you 494 00:32:17,319 --> 00:32:19,720 going to give me instead? And so Trump is doing 495 00:32:19,759 --> 00:32:22,079 like from what I Besen said yesterday, I think it 496 00:32:22,119 --> 00:32:24,839 was or day before that, there they've got like seventy 497 00:32:25,279 --> 00:32:27,880 countries lined up all trying to get in for these 498 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,880 individual negotiations and for a guy like Trump, this is 499 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,440 what he loves to do. So that's why, like I 500 00:32:33,519 --> 00:32:36,839 have taken a wait and see cautious approach to this stuff. 501 00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,759 I still have a lot of concerns, don't get me wrong, 502 00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,559 very worried about this because it is a break from 503 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,559 the orthodoxy of free trade policy. It is a it 504 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,519 is a break from that. So well, but maybe it 505 00:32:49,519 --> 00:32:50,359 should be broken. 506 00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:57,119 Speaker 3: Well, there are obviously some serious doubts about how all 507 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,599 this is going to oh yeah, eventually work and pan out. 508 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:05,240 What there's no doubt, however, is that a week ago, 509 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:12,400 the thirty largest industrial companies making up the Bell Jones 510 00:33:12,799 --> 00:33:15,160 it was a lot more valuable than it is right 511 00:33:15,519 --> 00:33:18,519 right now. The five hundred major companies making up the 512 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,920 S and P five hundred were a lot more valuable 513 00:33:22,119 --> 00:33:23,839 a week ago at four o'clock. 514 00:33:24,039 --> 00:33:26,319 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, that goes to right now, Yeah, Mike, No, 515 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,480 I appreciate the call. It's a good discussion. That goes 516 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,640 to my concerns as well. That you're looking at the 517 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,400 markets and the way they're moving and they're trying to gauge, 518 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,519 but they're also very uncertain and that creates a lot 519 00:33:37,519 --> 00:33:41,319 of volatility. All right, that'll do it for this episode. 520 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,480 Thank you so much for listening. I could not do 521 00:33:43,519 --> 00:33:45,680 the show without your support and the support of the 522 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,759 businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, 523 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,960 please support them too and tell them you heard it here. 524 00:33:51,119 --> 00:33:53,640 You can also become a patron at my Patreon page 525 00:33:53,759 --> 00:33:57,319 or go to dpetecleanershow dot com. Again, thank you so 526 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:05,920 much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.