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Speaker 2: twenty nine.
Speaker 1: If you do have Kerri, see talk station it's Tuesday.
Speaker 1: It's that time of week A Deep Dive with Daniel
Speaker 1: Davis doing the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find
Speaker 1: his podcast just search for Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Retired
Speaker 1: Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, Welcome back to the fifty five
Speaker 1: Cassey Morning Show. I missed our conversation last week when
Speaker 1: I was on vacation.
Speaker 2: Brother.
Speaker 4: I know, man, I always go through a little bit
Speaker 4: of with draw symptoms when you take your vacation.
Speaker 2: So I'm glad you're back in the office.
Speaker 1: I'm glad to have you on the program. I really
Speaker 1: enjoy your analysis of well sadly war, and you know,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry I have to. I'll phrase this as I
Speaker 1: got a kick out of it. I just like it's
Speaker 1: one of those what would Jesus do kind of things?
Speaker 1: So Easter shows up and they have a thirty or
Speaker 1: thirty hour ceasefire, I guess because it's Easter, and then
Speaker 1: start killing each other the minute it's over with.
Speaker 2: Isn't it. I mean, didn't they do that?
Speaker 3: In World War One?
Speaker 1: They had like a Christmas armistice and the guys came
Speaker 1: out of the trenches from both sides. They sat down,
Speaker 1: they talked converse, they had cigarettes together, and then they
Speaker 1: went back to the trenches and started killing each other again.
Speaker 1: It seems kind of barbaric and preposterous, doesn't it.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, that's that is a good analogy because that
Speaker 4: there were some similarities there, although frankly unlike the one
Speaker 4: in World War One, that this one was routinely violated
Speaker 4: left and right really throughout the whole lot of contact.
Speaker 4: So it was less of killing during the Easter holidays
Speaker 4: than it would otherwise have been.
Speaker 2: But it wasn't a full seasfire, didn't lead to anything.
Speaker 4: I guess that, you know, at least according to what
Speaker 4: Putin himself said, because he's the one who designated this,
Speaker 4: that it was just you know, for at least one holiday.
Speaker 4: He wanted his troops to get, you know, on both
Speaker 4: sides of the lines, to get some kind of respite,
Speaker 4: I guess. But yeah, like you said, it was pretty
Speaker 4: short lived, so I'm not really sure what was accomplished
Speaker 4: by it.
Speaker 1: So where are we in this whole process? I get
Speaker 1: the feeling that, you know, Trump's just kind of washing
Speaker 1: his hands of the whole thing. Russia doesn't want to
Speaker 1: sit down to negotiate. Ukraine wants more than they can
Speaker 1: ever hope to get in their negotiations, and is Trump
Speaker 1: just going to turn the whole thing over to the
Speaker 1: NATO allies in the Western European countries to handle.
Speaker 4: Now, this is actually a potentially very very crucial week,
Speaker 4: and one of the more crucial we've had in quite
Speaker 4: a long time, even since Trump has come into office.
Speaker 4: There are some really important meetings between the United States, Ukraine,
Speaker 4: and Europe in London tomorrow, and then there's gonna be
Speaker 4: some US and Russia meetings following that. And Trump put
Speaker 4: out on his true social last night that he thinks
Speaker 4: within the next three days that he thinks he can
Speaker 4: have some kind of a deal wrapped up. I'm thinking
Speaker 4: it's more like the first version you said that the
Speaker 4: end result of all these conversations is going to be
Speaker 4: I'm washing my hands and moving on, because the sides
Speaker 4: are still so far far apart, even the US and
Speaker 4: the Western side are far apart. But then from where
Speaker 4: anybody in the West wants to go and where Russia
Speaker 4: wants to go are certainly not something you can bridge
Speaker 4: in three days. For example, one of the things that
Speaker 4: the Ukraine side wants is to say, all right, we'll
Speaker 4: conceive this twenty percent of the territory where the line
Speaker 4: of contact is, but only I think they call it
Speaker 4: de facto, not djure, which they define as meaning will say, yes,
Speaker 4: you occupy this, but we will not publicly acknowledge that
Speaker 4: it's your territory, et cetera. Russia said, it is our territory.
Speaker 4: It's already in our constitution. It's not even up for debate,
Speaker 4: so they would not agree to that. Then, of course
Speaker 4: you get into the bigger issues of you know, where
Speaker 4: will those lines be, because the Ukraine side wants them
Speaker 4: to be on the line of contact and the Russian
Speaker 4: side says, the minimum we'll even talk about is the
Speaker 4: administrative orders, and there's substantial portions of the southern three
Speaker 4: of those provinces that have would have to be withdrawn
Speaker 4: and evacuated by the Ukraine side.
Speaker 2: I can't see him agreeing to any of that.
Speaker 4: So if Trump is true that he wants to have
Speaker 4: this wrapped up in three days, then it's almost the.
Speaker 2: Only way he can do that is to wash his
Speaker 2: hands and walk away.
Speaker 1: So it seems I don't want to call it comical,
Speaker 1: but you go do you talk to facto and desure
Speaker 1: of course by law ergo the formal movement of the
Speaker 1: border to recognize this is now part of Russia as
Speaker 1: opposed to de facto, which is really what it was before,
Speaker 1: with the vast majority of the population in these regions
Speaker 1: already feeling more loyal to Russia than they did to Ukraine.
Speaker 1: So that situation existed before Russia invaded to sort of liberate,
Speaker 1: if I may use that word, these territories right.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, and then's that really kind of gets to
Speaker 4: the heart of why I think that really the only
Speaker 4: play that Trump can can have here is to say,
Speaker 4: all right, we gave you guys every opportunity we could,
Speaker 4: but we're walking because even with all the combat realities
Speaker 4: you and I talk about every week we get together
Speaker 4: that are irrevocably on the Russian side, even to this day,
Speaker 4: the Western side still cannot come to recognize that. And
Speaker 4: they think that they can actually tell the Russian side
Speaker 4: where the line's gonna be, what the conditions are going
Speaker 4: to be, et cetera, when all those cards are on
Speaker 4: the Russian side.
Speaker 2: And so I think that you're gonna get to the.
Speaker 4: Point to where Trump is like with the reality the
Speaker 4: dajoure if you or the yeah, the joor if you
Speaker 4: want to get to that one. That they're irreconcilable, and
Speaker 4: so the only option is y'all figure it out, and
Speaker 4: that means y'all fight it out. And I think that's
Speaker 4: just the harsh truth of it, because they will not
Speaker 4: come to a recognition of combat reality.
Speaker 1: Well, and we've had this conversation before. If it comes
Speaker 1: to that and we basically effectively pull the plug and say, hey,
Speaker 1: we're done, you know, you guys deal with it.
Speaker 2: On your own.
Speaker 1: Our NATO allies don't have the capacity to do that.
Speaker 1: I mean they I don't think the population itself is
Speaker 1: willing to go put itself on the line to fight
Speaker 1: for Ukrainian independence from Russia to try to liberate these
Speaker 1: Russian dominated regions in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: I mean, do they have the will? That's one question.
Speaker 1: But then the second component is that we've talked about before,
Speaker 1: do they have the military hardware to do it? And
Speaker 1: I get the impression that they do not. I mean,
Speaker 1: they're starting to rebuild their armies as we speak, but
Speaker 1: they're way behind the curve on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, let's start with the second part of that.
Speaker 4: First, the capacity, without question, there is not because Russia
Speaker 4: has spent really the first say two and a half years,
Speaker 4: two plus years, retooling their industry, building up their armed forces,
Speaker 4: building up their capacity to do all these things that
Speaker 4: they need to do, reorienting their economy so that they
Speaker 4: can sustain this, and now that they are on a
Speaker 4: steady state to where they can maintain this force a
Speaker 4: half now about one point five million active army alone
Speaker 4: two point something total active forces when you add in
Speaker 4: the air force, in the navy, and the industry can
Speaker 4: sustain this level of fighting for indefinitely, which grossly exceeds.
Speaker 2: Anything the cumulative West.
Speaker 4: In its entirety to include the United States can even
Speaker 4: come close to match.
Speaker 2: And they can't.
Speaker 4: And to your second point about the political will, it
Speaker 4: simply doesn't exist everybody.
Speaker 2: There are many people.
Speaker 4: Let me put it that in the West, ideally would
Speaker 4: like Russia to lose, It would like Ukraine to win,
Speaker 4: but if it costs them something, if they have to
Speaker 4: shed their blood, if they have to send their boys,
Speaker 4: it's zero percent.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it makes me think of something like Vietnam,
Speaker 1: a lot of resistance. So that why are we in
Speaker 1: this remote region in Asia, and why are we fighting
Speaker 1: for their population? It has nothing to do with us.
Speaker 1: We're not connected with them. It just it befuddled a
Speaker 1: lot of people. And I know there were a lot
Speaker 1: of people the big supporters of it, because that was
Speaker 1: back when we were fighting the Communist you know, the
Speaker 1: Red scourge. But it's amazing we ultimately become a trading
Speaker 1: partner with Vietnam after all those years. Anyhow, the absurdity
Speaker 1: of war. Are we learning anything? I know my observation
Speaker 1: on this, considering the overwhelming amount of military might that
Speaker 1: Russia has, the overwhelming numbers relative to the soldiers that
Speaker 1: are on the ground, it has taken them a long time.
Speaker 1: I think Russia thought they just roll in and be
Speaker 1: over in no time. Have we learned something from this
Speaker 1: about Russia's ability to wage war given the size of
Speaker 1: Ukraine relative to the size of the Russian army or
Speaker 1: is this providing us with valuable information?
Speaker 4: Let me tell you something that's not entirely good or
Speaker 4: kind or optimistic.
Speaker 2: But after World War Two.
Speaker 4: We learned a great deal and our policy makers across
Speaker 4: the board in Western Yep recognized the reality of balance
Speaker 4: of power forces and what was and what wasn't possible,
Speaker 4: and our policies matched reality, and we got the best
Speaker 4: deal we could given the circumstances, and we kept that
Speaker 4: steady state peace for you know, during the entirety of
Speaker 4: the Cold War, and we didn't take actions that were
Speaker 4: unnecessarily provocative. We were a show to a definite strength
Speaker 4: so that it would deter the other side from doing anything,
Speaker 4: and that kept the peace for a long time. We
Speaker 4: have forgotten those lessons, and now then, despite what we
Speaker 4: have observed, with well over a million people being killed
Speaker 4: and proving again the reality of the balance of power dynamics,
Speaker 4: we still have refused as a cohort in the West.
Speaker 4: We've refused to acknowledge that, and we're still pretending it's otherwise,
Speaker 4: and that very often leads to bad policy decisions that
Speaker 4: can't be accomplished and don't lead to peace. I hope
Speaker 4: it doesn't come to that, and that's one of the
Speaker 4: reasons I'm hopeful that Trump's a willingness to do that
Speaker 4: may force feed these guys to do something that gets
Speaker 4: the war off the table. And if it doesn't, if
Speaker 4: they act even more foolish, if without the United States,
Speaker 4: they could plunge themselves into a war that could go
Speaker 4: nuclear all too easily.
Speaker 2: Oh jeez.
Speaker 1: Well, we don't get to end on a happy note today,
Speaker 1: Daniel Davis. But got to speak it out loud to
Speaker 1: point out what reality is. I like and as we
Speaker 1: stare at this conflict, Daniel Davis, deep dive. Always a
Speaker 1: real pleasure having you in the fifty five KR see morning.
Speaker 1: Sha'll encourage my listeners to check out online. And I'm
Speaker 1: already looking forward to next Tuesday, me too, Thanks Brian
Speaker 1: se Then take care brother, it's coming up in eighty
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