Speaker 1: It O Fantasy Podcast Network presents in a world of
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Speaker 2: Welcome into our podcast on suck Talk Radio and talk
like this. Wah what, don't go off the wedding earth
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Speaker 1: In this League Fantasy Football podcast featuring Bug the Yummie Silence.
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well and the well.
Speaker 2: I would give somebody twenty dollars if Antonio Kates goes
before you two picks playing on iTunes, Stitcher, SoundCloud into
that's like four dollars in America. Now because of the
brexits coming to your ears. Now, what's up, Friendoz, and
welcome into the End League Fantasy Football Podcast. I'm the
Welsh that is Scott Bogman, and today we talk about
bus kind of bus though now the bus is actually
expecting now that different kind of bus, the exact bus
that you are expecting, not the one that Bogman has
an incognito mode on his Internet. We are talking about
potential fantasy football bus like the breakouts and sleepers. This
is not designed where we are going to sit here
and just list off five names a piece of players
that we think are going to bust. What we're actually
going to do is we are going to do a
couple things. We are going to take the Fantasy pros
is this interesting marker. It's built in the coding where
we've designed players where they've got like five marks, and
it's this has the upside and this is the bus potential,
and there's multitude of factors that go into it. So
we've taken the identifier and Fantasy Pros with a higher
bus potential at each position. We're going to go through
those players and we will just discuss if we're a
buyer seller on certain groups of said bus players. And
then also we've got projections that differ from ECR, So
a couple players each position that have wide range differences
between how they're being ranked and what the projection puts
out and is that potentially a sign of a bust
if they're being ranked higher. So it is a lot
of bust talk without us throwing our busts in your face.
Speaker 1: You know, we can make more money that way only bush. Yeah, Look,
there's a lot of bus potential here. We're gonna go
over the ones that have been listed. Any player that
is in that that is considered a starter for you,
whether it's like yo, your two rbs, a FLEXRB, your
three wide receivers, a flex wide receiver. I think any
of these guys, if they don't pan out, they get hurt,
whatever reason, they get pushed off of their targets or
whatever it is, they can end up being a bus
But it is hard to pick through who those guys
are exactly. Not everybody agrees either. So we're just gonna
go through the potential busts and that we actually think
will bust that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we got some categories of them specifically with
running back and wide receiver. You know, here's first round, here,
second round. So a lots of players for different reasonings
could have some potential bust potential. And that is the
discussion for today. Want to remind you guys, if you
guys want to support the podcast, go to in this
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our patreon. You can sign up. You can have access
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People are starting up leagues, people are just talking fantasy
football all day long. You guys have access to us
in the community, and anytime we do any special things,
if it was like listener leagues or anything like that,
it is always through in this league, so you can
be a part of the conversation, and then you could
also know by the way none of that might be
of interest to you. We have absolutely had people that
just literally want to be nice in support and they
don't want to be a part of the stuff. You
don't have to be You can do that too, whatever
the reason is. Know that you were supporting the podcast
in this league dot com, in this league dot com,
in this league dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, just because it's called the il Army doesn't mean
you're actually enlisting. You don't have to force you to
do anything.
Speaker 2: We will know, we will not we will not call,
we will not make calls or anything like that. So
I have a funny story I was about to say,
but it's it's say I almost got I like I
got an attempt recruited one time about.
Speaker 1: Tried to recruit me. Now, dude, we were we graduated
high school in oh one, so we got the full
court press like that summer.
Speaker 2: It's not like you're walking by one of the stores
or the guys in the malls. This was like direct call.
And uh, it's a little dark because this was like
right after nine to eleven.
Speaker 1: Yeah, right after it was I got that call every
month my dad.
Speaker 2: So people don't know my dad died two months before
I was born, and he was in the military. And
it wasn't due to the military, by the way. It
was an off hand job working on like satellites and stuff.
And they called and this guy is giving me the
full court press, and I don't know what was in me,
but I was just like, yeah, my dad was in
the military and he died. And then the then the
guy stops the sales pitch and goes, I am so sorry, son.
And then what he had assumed because it was in
the general vicinity of like nine to eleven when it
was around there, I didn't happen to mention that it
was like twenty plus years ago, not when he was dealing,
when he was out of the military and stuff like that.
That was a pretty quick hang up, Like that was
a pretty quick like we'll be thinking about you and
thank you for your time and then click and it
was like that shut that up really quick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, luckily the phone calls never got to me. My
mom and my grandma hung up on him way before.
I have to.
Speaker 2: Say, but you know what, if you're serving God, bless you.
I appreciate you. And hopefully and I know we've had
plenty of people, we have people message us from military
bases and stuff like that, so hopefully we can help
you guys out. You're better than me. But I will
always remember that story. That always, just that is ingrained
in my head because I've never.
Speaker 1: I think everyone eighteen to twenty five phone was ringing
off the hook right after night.
Speaker 2: But I've never heard some like someone's voice do the
like tire screech, you know, like you're actually hearing someone go.
But that was, like what happened in the conversation, pretty
a very unique moment in my life to hear that
conversation turn and immediately go out. So that just made
me think of that that will not be the ideal army.
Speaker 1: And we all known more about Welsh now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, twelve plus years of doing this podcast, you could
probably piece together both of our lives relatively decent if
you've been around the whole time. Otherwise, you're just gonna
get little random tidbits that we don't mean much to you,
you know, like he wrestling wrestling was very funny ten
years ago, might.
Speaker 1: Not mean much to you right now today, but you know, yeah,
to teach them it embarrasses you. That's why I like it.
Speaker 2: So we're far beyond that right now. We're far beyond.
Speaker 1: But about that name? What was your wrestler's name? Again?
Speaker 2: No, actually, don't listen. Not embarrassed, but we don't need
to let the cat bag anything like that. Wouldn't need
to do that.
Speaker 1: Why is your face turning red right now? That's what
happens when I'm totally normal and not ashamed.
Speaker 2: You want to you want to hear it's it's very
funny somebody. I can't say the exact thing, but I
was telling.
Speaker 1: My story deliciousness.
Speaker 2: I was telling someone a story of something that happened
on a podcast, and it was there he we careful
is something that happened on a podcast that resulted in
something not great for somebody and that person was like, oh,
is that still out there? And I'm like, yeah, I'm
pretty sure. Check this exact date. If people want to
know the E Wrestling, you just got to go back like, oh,
I don't know, twelve years ago on our podcast feed
if we're even still there, and find the E Wrestling episode,
which was like the third episode we ever did, and
then I have replayed it over time.
Speaker 1: But that's going to say that was like three apartments
ago for me because I remember where I was. I
think my neighbors thought I was passing out because I
was laughing.
Speaker 2: So I still lived in Arizona, NA, exactly. Gret So,
all right, enough of that. The get to It crew
is screaming, but we are going to get to it.
So again, the Fantasy Pros Bust column is like a
heavy marker for this, at least to create the conversation.
When you go to the ranks page, you know, there's
such of fun information, but then there's the upside five
meters and then the bust five meters, and the bust
is going to incorporate things like, you know, injury that
are going to be in there, lack of production, potential, volatility.
It's kind of volatility marker and you know, just a
nice little kind of visual marker to be like, hey,
this guy has some potential bust. Conversations go from hey,
this guy could to this guy's absolute failure in when
people are doing these type of things, and this is
a whole host of names that can kind of live
in that world. I do think there are some names
that are more appropriate than others, and we'll probably put
a hyper focus because we're not going to mention all those,
but we'll do a little bit of like are you
buying or hey from this tee or who is the
player that you think is going to bust more. We've also,
as mentioned, got that projections versus ECR and I have
tried to relatively stay median my whole career of doing this,
where it's like there's a cost for everybody. I don't
like to be the person that is black and white
to say that this is going to be an absolute failure,
but you do have to come to terms with like
based on your feelings, sometimes you will just never own
so you might as well just be like, yeah, there's
no circumstance where this guy is going to be online.
So those are the conversations that we'll have, will stop
wasting your time, will get right to it, the bus
starting with running backs, and then more coming up right
after this.
Speaker 1: I generally come in at least fifteen minutes late. I
use this that I just sort of space out for
about an hour space out.
Speaker 2: I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real actual work.
Would you feel good, sport and indulge this and just
tell us a little more.
Speaker 1: Let me tell you something.
Speaker 2: About in this league. All right, we are going to
start with the top twelve running running backs in general.
But when we look at the Fantasy pros potential bus,
we are going to look at the first round there
are four running backs. Now, the only question I have
for you, though, and I could pull this up and
take a look here, what was the marker? What did
it have to be three or more? Because it's a
five dots system, very advanced, four dots or more perfect
And you know what, I see it as I'm going here,
because I see in the top twelve running backs there
are four running backs that have the bus potential, which
as this mentions here, I'll give you the exact it says, Hi,
I actually almost nailed this in my terminology with not
even using this it is higher risk due to injuries, atility,
or uncertain usage based on consensus expert opinions. That is
where the bust marker goes. In the first quote round
or first twelve running backs. There are four guys that
activate that four marker. It is Christian McCaffrey who is
number three, Jonathan Taylor who is RB four, Devon ah
Chan at six, and Ken Walker down at twelve. They
have all activated that four marker here. None of them
are five. And the interesting thing is all of them, though,
have the four tag on the upside, which is the
high ceiling potential due to role talent. So there's like
a theoretical like contradict contradiction that's kind of maybe going
on there. I think there's lots of things to talk
about in here. I mean, I think Christian McCaffrey's is
kind of well known.
Speaker 1: I do same thing with JT in my opinion.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think the Christian McCaffrey one, and maybe
I gotta look, it's not quite with JT, but that
whole four hundred touch thing is in is activated.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I understand that for JC two also, he's had
ankle issues probably it's probably one hundred percent injury with CMC.
I think it's eighty five percent injury for JT. Because
of the carriers, you think you think.
Speaker 2: The bus potential is one hundred percent with Christian McCaffrey
is just injury.
Speaker 1: Yes, see, it's not touches.
Speaker 2: No, No, I think it has to do with the touches.
I think it is seventy five percent injury and I
think twenty five percent. Yeah, yeah, that Barkley narrative from
last year of four hundred plus touches. Returning players absolutely
do not perform.
Speaker 1: And yeah, the magical hurt line is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the hurt line, the four hundred touch has been
the magical hurt line. Yeah, to be fair, they were
right last year. No, I'm not making fun of it.
I'm just saying that is though. No I know, I know,
but he has that activity. So that's why I'm saying
I think McCaffrey's is injury, and the four hundred touch line.
I think Jonathan Taylor's is kind of that injury line.
Maybe also the offense that's a.
Speaker 1: Little Daniel Jones stuff like that. That's a big question
of when is he coming back and is he gonna
have to face a lot of sack boxes. I think
the two to concentrate here, oh yeah are a Chan
in K nine and the most polarizing.
Speaker 2: I literally it's funny because I just pulled up on
Twitter someone talking about this. The most conversational piece of
a bust player, the avoid this player this season tier
tier tier Stevan A Chan. There is no player that
sits on a different side of well sits on the
majority of avoid and bust articles. While there is a
decent amount of people defending. Last year average twenty point
two fantasy points per game, thirteen hundred, rushing, had almost
five hundred receiving seventeen twelve touchdowns between rushing and receiving
is the six pack? But is on is it? I
mean inferior team is It's kind of like a funny statement,
like anything is probably better than Tua, I would guess.
But you're no Hill, you have no Jaylen Waddle or
receiving corps is decimated. It's a new scheme. It's just
Devon ah Chan and you know, look Malik Willis and
just a bunch of nomads and stuff, like, what is
your take on it? Buy or sell that? Devon a
chan is going to be a bust, and that means
that guy has to decently underperform where they're being drafted.
Speaker 1: So if you're always say he's a he's a bus
if he's not an ARB one this year, is that fair? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, like, if you're an RB six,
I think it's got to be like eleven or twelve.
But I think more of the appropriate answer is, like
he's not a top twelve. The you have to avoid
should be more that he can't be a top twelve
running back.
Speaker 1: I agree with that. Yeah, I disagree with that. Like,
I know, he's definitely gonna face a lot of stack boxes,
but he faced a lot of stack boxes last year
and was fine. I think Malik Willis gives him a
little bit more room to run because Malik Willis is
also going to run. So I just I I understand
the panic because the offense is going to be bad
and we think that everybody's gonna he went on him,
kind of like Ashon Genty. Last year, Asha Genty, his
downside was thirteenth best running back in half PPR. That's
where he scored was thirteen. So you know, so if
he's down inside here, yes, but I just don't think
there's enough to lower him from. And he's not a
guy that depends on a million touches either, So like
every touch is going to be against an eight man box,
so he'll set him up.
Speaker 2: If you have him at six. So you probably already
have this answer. But if I moved the chain and say,
we loosely are using the word bus but like you
made the wrong decision by taking de von Aschen because
he is now the tenth scoring running back and not
six or five, and you passed up you know who's
you passed him up. He passed up Barkley, he passed
up Chase Brown, a Marion Hampton, and he's now ten
or eleven. If I move it to that mark or what,
what would you say? The possibilities of that happening are
versus him sticking around between you know, five, six, seven, eight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say that if he if he is
that bad, is it because I think it would probably
be half him and then you know, uh, half him
and then half the other guys performing well, like Derrick
Henry is warning a bunch of touchdowns and not dropping
down as far as we think. You know what I
mean so I can see him getting there, but without
an injury, I think it's gonna be. I think it's
going to be somewhat of a normal year, maybe a
little bit lower than last year. I expect him to
be in that lower like mid to low end RB one,
And if he doesn't finish in there, I'd say, yeah,
he's probably he's at least didn't hold his value, maybe
not be a complete bust, but he is not what
you drafted him for.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a little fadie for him, and I know
that's not what we're doing here. It's more like the
bus potentials and stuff. I'm a little in between where
it's like I just I think it's it could be.
I have Genti at one spot.
Speaker 1: Ahead, Okay, do you want eight?
Speaker 2: Seven? I mean everybody else? Okay, all right, Yah, I'm
sorry I have him at eight. I'm sorry I have
him at eight.
Speaker 1: I have who's the other guy ahead of him?
Speaker 2: Chase Brown?
Speaker 1: Chase Brown? Okay, yeah, that's fair, like.
Speaker 2: Better touchdown equity. I think this season better like yeah,
better offense for sure, But do I really think he's
gonna fall that much further down? I have questions about
the offense so it's maybe a little bit more of
like avoid where he's drafting than he is going to
be a bust.
Speaker 1: Like I kind of just not He's not a target
for you. He's not like you would draft him if
he fell, but he's probably not gonna fall, and you're
probably not aiming for where he is.
Speaker 2: He feels like he's a really tough guy to be
a bust just because of his skill set. Now, what
about ken Walker? Ken Walker is the other one. As
you mentioned, he is ECR twelve. He goes to the
Kansas City Chiefs very inconsistent in how things were worked
last year injury more time, he only ended up with
two hundred and twenty one carries in seventeen games, barely
over a thousand yards. But he goes to Kansas City
Chiefs offense that you know, when all healthy and running,
if they allow him to be the main stable guy
and don't do the weird switch up stuff and whatever
which you presume by bringing him in, that's the case, dude,
Kitty dude could absolutely roll. But people are kind of
torn on him. So are you a buy or sell that,
or do you buy that he is going to bust
this year or do you think he's a safer option.
Speaker 1: I think he's a bust for twenty twenty six. And
the reason I say this is because he's being drafted
as an RB one. And again this is another you know,
splitting hairs a little bit. But I have him met
RB fifteen, so I'm just I don't want to put
him up there yet. I think there's a couple of
things here. Is he going to have the most touches
he's ever had, Yes, but the most touches he's ever had,
you know before twenty twenty six was last year at
two fifty two. Two fifty five was as high or
two fifty five as a rookie actually was his most touches.
So I think he has shown us in his four
seasons in the NFL. If you give him the ball
too much, he's going to get hurt. He's going to
wear down, a breakdown. I think that's why you go
out and you get an Emma Johnson, who is a
dude that was I believe twelve in college football in
touches last year. We know that dude can handle the
workload should anything happen to Ken Walker. I also think
that Emmit Johnson is probably the second best back in
this roster already, So I just I also think there's
questions about Mahomes starting week one. Everyone just assumes Mahomes
week one, week one, week one?
Speaker 2: Is it the It's like Justin Fields and they lean
on the right, Yeah, it is Justin Field sucks.
Speaker 1: Did you watch the Jets last year? He's terrible. Yes,
it's bad. I mean he's awful. Yeah, the whole offense
sucks without Patrick Mahomes, So yeah, that is really bad.
So I don't I think Look, I think Mahomes miss
is like a month at most, so back week five,
that's fine. But I don't think Kenneth Walker is a
guy that can handle three hundred touches in the NFL
without breaking down. And I think the Chiefs need to
play him like that. I think you go out and
you get him to lead your running back room. But
you can't be stupid and give him twenty five carries
for the first month or twenty five touches a game
for the first month, because Patrick Mahomes is out, he
will break down. So I'm afraid of the breakdown after
a big on track for Kenneth Walker.
Speaker 2: So all right, the next the next tier is the
there's there's actually six running backs that kind of fit
this meter, which might really kind of worrisome, that have
the four RB marker, which is kind of crazy. Uh,
there's six of them, Javonte Williams, Cam Skataboo, Bucky Irving,
quin Shawn Jutkins, Travon Henderson, and David Montgomery, all of
them with the four bust tag on here and then
trying to see they all still also have that kind
of upside play. There isn't many or actually I'm sorry,
there is one player, one player with the four bust
marker to five on Fantasy pros that also has a
negative upside, only a two upside, and that is Bucky Irving.
Bucky Irving, And I think that's actually kind of funny
because it's like I think when Bucky's healthy, I feel
a lot different. But I think people are really torn
in that, like he has these injuries that they brought
in Ken Kenny Gamo really screws a lot of people
up that he's just not going to be able to
like jump past where he was. He did average thirteen
point nine points per game last season, five hundred and
eighty eight yards in ten games caught you know, balls
and stuff like that, but he just can't stay out there.
The upside one kind of throws me off. But he's
a pretty pop again other polarizing, but busts are usually
very polarizing. It's like, if people think this guy is
gonna fail, there's gonna be other people like FITZI who
are on the exact, exact opposite end. Do you buy
that Bucky Irving is a bus candidate for this year
or are you selling that?
Speaker 1: I mean, I it's not hard to see where he
is because he was a bust last year. But I'm
not going to count him out because I feel like,
and I said this last year when he came back, right,
I was like, I don't know when he comes back
the run game has been working. I don't know that
they give him, you know, a crazy amount of touches. Well,
Week twelve comes around and he has seventeen carries and
leads them immediately fifteen carries and two catches the next game.
Then it was sixteen nineteen, you know, like he I
doubted him and they went right back to giving him
the rock. I don't think that's going to change too much.
Is gain well going to be involved, sure, or ra
Sean White was involved last year. I think we're just
replacing ra Shad White with Kenny Gainwell. So I'm still
fairly high on Bucky. I got him at eighteen, which
is higher than his ZCR, so I obviously don't think
he's going to be a bus I think also, you know,
Baker Mayfield coming back healthy makes this offense better. So
I think Tampa Bay's gonna have a better offense than
people are giving him credit for.
Speaker 2: I'm a big mecha guy this year, so I'm kind
of with that. So then let me ask you this.
Javonte Williams, Cam Scattaboo, quinch On Jutkins, Trevon Henderson, and
Dave Montgomery, those are the other guys with this high tag.
Which of these players do you think is the bus
potential the highest bus potential all of them? And why
is it cam'ska?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's Cam Scataboo because he's coming off an injury
and he's smaller and like played one year and had
a horrific injury like that is probably.
Speaker 2: What be is your assumption when you say that, like
you're not like breaking because I missed time like he Yeah,
but like, oh, okay. I was also going to say,
like if he plays the season, like, is this is
a guy that just some.
Speaker 1: Of the Yeah, it's only injury for Cam, only injury.
It's it like you watch him play, he's awesome.
Speaker 2: The only reason I'm bringing that up is like Jake
and I literally were talking today because Jake is like
me and that he doesn't project injury. You project injury,
He does not project injury. I don't try to project injury.
It's fair to be like, this guy's injury prone, but
to like give a massive smack because we think an
injury is gonna happen. I just I don't especially a
guy that.
Speaker 1: Just I don't have any of these guys outside of
the RB two category though, so I don't really have
any of them busting to.
Speaker 2: Be Yeah, I mean Travion, I think would probably may
my guy just because like I said before, I think
you said in the last episode, I think he's super talented.
I just think they've proven to us, like reminder, they
don't let that go. They're going to continue rolling over it.
It's a super successful pass offense now with AJ Brown
and Dobbs, I wouldn't be surprised if May runs a
little bit more, I'd love to see it, but I
haven't seen the trust in it. If I had to
pick one, it's probably him. I love Judkins this year.
I like Irving, and I freaking love the Montgomery. I'm
shocked the Montgomery's even on this, to be honest.
Speaker 1: But that's just age, and like, is he gonna be
able to handle a full workload now at twenty nine
or whatever? So I think Henderson has the best player
behind him right in Remondre. I think Andre is better
than Kenny gain Weell and I like Gainwell a lot.
And I think Javante is probably the guy with the
worst backfield behind him with no competition. I mean, you
could also say Montgomery with what he marks, wasn't that
great last year. So but I think those guys are
safe just because there's no one else pushing them at all.
It's Gottaboo has Tyrone Tracy there. Devin Singletary is not
a nothing, but he's kind of a nothing for us.
But I don't really find any of these guys to
be someone that I would call a likely bust.
Speaker 2: So is cam that one that you're probably fading? If
you had a fader in there because me, I'm probably
I'm fading Travion. I might be fading Cam. To be
honest with you, there, I'm sorry, Yeah, yeah, Travion and Cam.
I'm actively targeting Dave Montgomery.
Speaker 1: It would be between Cam and Quinn Sewan for me,
and that's because they're both coming off major injuries and
they both play for less than stellar offenses. Those would
be the guys that if I had to pick, it's
probably between those two. Probably is Cam though.
Speaker 2: All right, twenty five with Euring thirty seven in here
as well. This is a group of eight players that
have the potential bust tag on them. I don't know
if I can do a quick eye I can tell
you there are three players that lack the upside play
on them, and I'll tell you as we go. Basehill,
Tuton Eastier twenty five has got the four Jendarium Price
Jalen Warren, Tony Pollard, R. J. Harvey, kalaman On, Guy JK.
Dobbins and Aaron Jones all have that four bus tag.
I think you missed one, though you missed Chuba Hubbard,
who also has the four. Maybe that just happened, by the.
Speaker 1: Way, Maybe that was subconsciously.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe, well, Cuba, Cuba, RJ. Harvey, have and Aaron
Jones are the three lowest. Aaron Jones has the lowest
upside of any play. It's a one star. I'm gonna
just uose stars as a such same lines.
Speaker 1: Yeah, with r J.
Speaker 2: Harvey and Chuba, Hubbard is the low So not only
are they warning you, that's maybe a key marker because
a lot of these are like four upside for whatever data.
When you see low upside with high bus potential, Cuba
and RJ. Harvey jump out. Cuba probably one. Obviously from
the last episode, you are going to be super against.
I'm more for. You're gonna be more against.
Speaker 1: I mean you bat twelve hundred yards and ten touchdowns
in twenty twenty four and then a calf injury early
in October, and Rico was good. I just I don't
understand the no upside there. That's crazy to me.
Speaker 2: What do you think about the RJ. Harvey one? Because
you're kind of an RG A Harvey guy, there's there's
a little upside.
Speaker 1: No, don't don't say that. Don't don't do that.
Speaker 2: I you see, I thought you were you were like
a little having below easr. I mean thirty four is
thirty two, Okay, so you're out on him. Then let's
talk about Twoton though, because Tuton is probably the most
polarizing in this territory. He actually kind of lies a
little bit more in the the upside like the Sleepers.
People are putting him more as a sleeper, but on
the end verse there's that big bus potential because Chris
Rodriguez is out there. So I guess we kind of
did talk about him in the last episode, and I
think you you were more genarian priced over him. So
I feel like this is going to be buying the
bust more.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean buy him as a bust. I I
would say he's going to disappoint more than outright bust.
I think people are gonna draft him as their RB two, thinking,
all right, I got the Jaguars lead back, no doubt,
and it's gonna be like, Okay, well he had more
carries and more yards than Sea Rod, but Sea Rod
scored two touchdowns and that's super annoying, right, So I
think he's going to disappoint in that way. The Broncos
situation though, dude, I'm just not doing it. I just
refuse like, if I want to take Jonah Coleman, I
have him way higher than his projection and his ECR.
If you want to take him cheap, then fine. But
I'm not taking Harvey, I'm not taking Dobbins. I'm not
messing with it. I think it's gonna be a three
headed gross monster. So I think the Broncos guys are disappointments.
I obviously I'm in on Jendarian Price. So I mean
Aaron Jones not having upside. Yeah, it's kind of like
why I like Demon Claiborne. But I do think that
I do think the Minnesota offense will be better just
with Kyler Murray. Like, get a real NFL caliber starting
quarterback in koc Can work a little magic. That should
mean good things for whoever the Vikings running back is
going into the season. That's Aaron Jones. So do I
think he's gonna bust? Not when you have him at
thirty seven. Yeah, I've got him at thirty one, so
I think he's gonna be fine.
Speaker 2: So then two picks in here that your official picks
for guys that are higher bus potential.
Speaker 1: Uh, give me Tooton and Dobbinson.
Speaker 2: Tootin and Dobbins. I'm gonna go probably going to be
honest with the Cuba, and I kind of want to
say Warren, but I'm Monogai because I'm I'm not a
monong guy for this year. So but Warren worries me
a little bit. With Rico in there as well. Projections
versus ECR, this is the fun one.
Speaker 1: This is. Let me just tell you real quick. This
was tough because almost every projection and I just like
all I did was I took the the FPT projections,
I put them into the spreadsheet, and I labeled everybody
by their total score one through whatever it was eighty five, right,
almost everybody was within two spots of their ECR. And
by the way, where they finish, those.
Speaker 2: Are not correlative because ECR is the different average rank
of all whoever how many we have now seventy plus rankers,
so it's not necessarily correlative. So but your point to
that was four running backs were the only backs that
had like a five spot difference between the running back
that were projected to be and the ECR. And the
key to this is these guys are ranked higher in
consensus ranks versus what the projection is putting out to
take that for what it is, four players. Number one.
The highest player is Blake Koram, who is ranked as
the thirty thirty fourth back in ECR Expert Consensus ranks.
That is a top three back, but the projection is
thirty ninth. Is a seven hundred yards seven hundred and
eighty yards, six touchdowns. This one, to me is a
little bit easier. And these aren't really like huge guys
to sit on, but this one's easier because Blake Korum's
what's not being projected is also the value of If
Karen Williams goes down, he becomes literally one of the
league's most valuable running backs out there because of his
skill set and jumping in. Like if McCaffrey goes down
and it's Jordan James, that's cool, but that's not the
same thing that's happening. Like if Beijon goes down and
Brian Robinson has it, will be into it, but it's
still not the same thing. So Blake Korum, I think,
is more designed towards that. But the other three You've
got Tyrone Tracy at forty one, ranked forty first, but
his projection has him down at forty seven. Round five
hundred yards, two touchdowns. This is probably the most relevant one.
Forty third is the rank for Chris Rodriguez, but he
is projected as the forty ninth running back, below Tyrone
Tracy and probably one of the more popular picks out
there because everyone who's against Bachel Tuton. You got to
make a case that Chris Rodriguez is going to get
early downs, goal lines and is all of a sudden
gonna probably be a ton more valuable. And then the
final one is Tyler Algier, who is ranked forty sixth
but is the lowest I think of any of these
guys at fifty three outside of the top fifty running backs,
only four hundred and twenty yards does a touchdowns projected,
But obviously Jeremiah Love, maybe Connor, you know, like all,
it's just a very messy situation with the running backs
in here. I think we already answered the Quorum one,
but I think probably the most interesting one irrelevant is
the Chris Rodriguez one, because if you're a Chris Rodriguez truther,
you were kind of busting Tutin in here. This has
to maybe be not insanely eye opening, but this is
a pretty big difference between the projection and like where
he's being ranked, it's at least probably a touchdown differential
of him only having five touchdowns here and being almost
outside the top fifty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really tough to know this Jacksonville situation, right
because is it gonna be Is it gonna be like, hey,
look everything goes to Tutin between the twenties and then
here's see Rodgers from mop up duty. Like is it
twenty yards in a touchdown? Is what you want from
Sea Rod every week? Or is it gonna be like, no,
Sea Rod mixes in, he gets ten carries, he gets
fifty yards, and he is more likely to get the touchdown.
That would make Tutin almost useless. If that's the case.
I don't think Tuton is gonna be useless. So I
have c Rod at forty seven, so I have him
closer to his projection. I just don't like that backfield
in general. You know, I think they're gonna throw the
ball a lot to the tight ends. I think Trevor
Lawrence is your big lift in Jacksonville because he's the
guy throwing the touchdowns and he's got all these wide
receiver weapons and now all these tight end weapons. I
don't know. I think the run game is going to
be a little bit secondary in Jacksonville in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: And really those are for you guys to just know
and you can make your own decisions. The projection versus
ECR take it for what it is. Blake Corman and
Chris Frodriguez probably the most relevant, all right potential bus
at the wide receiver position, again using the five metered
bust marker on Fantasy Pros going into the first round,
there are three wide receivers that were given that marker,
George Pickens, Chris Olave and Rashi Rice. And I will
be honest with you, I'm actually surprised that it is
Pickens over Lamb. And that might sound weird. It's just
Lamb is on a little bit of a down trajectory
right now. I've then multiple different shows where I've been
hearing a lot of kind of negative Lamb talk, not
like negative the is gonna be worthless or anything, of
course not, but negative in that like the value half.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, and Pickens is coming off of like this big
I mean targeted season and if the see if they're
going to be better this year, and get the ball
down field and a healthy dack and all that, like
what could be? So I kind of found it interesting
that Pickens was the one with the bigger bus meeter
and Lamb is just down at two. The only difference
between these three wide receivers, Rashi Rice is given the
five upsides, so that essentially saying safety net. I think
the only built in real bus potential feels like it's
off field stuff. But I know you've received You just
did a there's a video out there on Fantasy Pros
people yelling at you because you were talking about no.
Speaker 1: Actually most were agreeing with me.
Speaker 2: Oh I saw somebody like that.
Speaker 1: They called me a total idiot or whatever, but yeah,
probably most most people were agreeing.
Speaker 2: I think what that comes from is, uh, by the way,
I didn't not Knowice where she rises the same birthday
me and him. What a great guy to how you
have data berths on here? And I just looked at that.
I'm like, oh, Rashi Rice kind of performs as a
top five wide receiver, So like I'm with the upside.
The downside to me is built a little bit more
around some injury and then they off the field stuff.
But then you also have to attach Patrick Mahomes's injury,
which is kind of a concern, which you've mentioned. So
you look at these three players, I gotta be honest
with you, Rahi Rice is really the only like I
feel kind of indifferent about Olave like gets tons of
target shairs. Tyler Shuck is cool, like awesome. I feel
more adamantly against the George picken one Pickens one. Rice
I am against because I am higher ranked, but I
think there's way more of a story to tell about
why he can be a bust than any of these
other guys.
Speaker 1: I'm I kind of see the downside for all three
of them, but I'm not killing any of them in
the rankings. The thing the clip that you mentioned, and
by the way, you're like you're the clip master or
something on one of the FP shows almost and I
want to be like, I am the clip commands.
Speaker 2: That because I almost said you were gonna be the
clip commander, because every time I couldn't. I can't get
a clip for the life of me. For the life
of me, whoever, the automated system, whatever social people are
doing it, they won't put on the football side a
clip of me saying or even my face in there
obviously baseball. Like I'm kind of the analyst, so I
get all that. Every other video is Bogman saying something.
It's always Bogman, and I dread it for you sometimes
because people are especially Instagram people are bigger dickheads than
even Twitter.
Speaker 1: But like everyone on Instagram is just a troll.
Speaker 2: But it's funny. You know what I was thinking about
the other day, and that's a good sidetrack. But it's like,
you got so much crap for the Zay Flowers thing
a month ago. I'm not kidding you. Every goddamn analyst
I hear is talking about Zay Flowers and why he's
gonna break out. Every single one. THEO Gremmager just went
over to Rode Wire. He's the big new Hire first
video out with Jared Smoller, but talking about why the
Flowers is going to be I couldn't.
Speaker 1: Even get worm and he's the Ravens fan.
Speaker 2: You got so much negative calm, and I get sick
for it because like, well, you do your work, you
do your hardcore work. You don't deserve it. People are
dickheads that don't know you. But you always have a
video out there sometimes there's no context in it, and
people are flaming it and they're eddying.
Speaker 1: Is is where I do get annoyed because almost all
of my takes are from a Dynasty perspective, because I'm
on the Dynasty show more than.
Speaker 2: The other show, and they just throw it on FP.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they just throw it on the FP one
and people are like, why is the city and hate
Crystal lavea right because that was one of the big ones,
the Crystal lave downside to me. And by the way,
the people on Twitter, I don't take offense anymore because
fifty percent of the people are going to agree with me,
and fifty percent are going to think I'm the biggest
city it ever. That's just the way it is.
Speaker 2: I think the Instagram people are are the worst.
Speaker 1: There's all trolls.
Speaker 2: I can't yeah there it is amazing because you would
think that's more of a Twitter thing. It's not.
Speaker 1: There are automated trolls on Instagram. There are not. I
think they're most mainly real trolls.
Speaker 2: But I made that comment the other day laughing, and
then literally like yesterday I saw one where you were
talking about Rasheie Rice and it was someone was like
what are you talking about? Blah blah blah. So I'm
not sure. Yeah, I'll let you finish your thought. But
it was like you have him outside the top twelve.
I think that's the problem and people are not having
I mean I do. I think he's like a top
ten guy, like he performs at the level. But you
have clearly shown you have massive concerns about this offense
that Mahomes is gonna miss time if its fields are
gonna suck, and that's going to affect.
Speaker 1: And Rashee Rice has been hurt when he's played a lot, right,
So like Rashee Rice has phenomenal upside wide receiver one upside,
we can even call it right, Like, you know, if
he was healthy and Mahomes was there the whole year
and neither one of them had injuries, could he finish
as a wide receiver one. It wouldn't be shocking, right,
It'd be like, well, dude had one hundred and fifty
catches because he's a PPR machine. So I my point
in what I said, which again was the Dynasty take,
but I didn't say it was. I just don't want
to depend on what she Rice as my wide receiver one.
I think that that is just that is my my
line in the sand, right, That's what I draw is
if I can get him as my wide receiver two great,
all kinds of upside. He's more replaceable if there's an injury.
I already have a guy ahead of him, right, So
wide receiver two great, that's where I want him. Thats
why I'm at fourteen, which isn't killing him. He's wide
receiver twelve. So I just have him as a high
end wide receiver too instead of low end wide receiver one.
That's it. So, but you can you do not have
to squint to see the downside. The downside is he
does something really idiotic and he winds up in jail.
You know, that is multi worse scenario.
Speaker 2: So yeah, the injury problems, I mean, and that's the case.
I'm not sure I'm into any of that. Again, I
would defend the Pickens one. I just am not there
for Like he's.
Speaker 1: Just I mean, he's a babyback bitch. That's what it is.
Is like he is gonna have an attitude problem because
he doesn't have a contract. He's gonna wine and cry
in a couple of games. He's the guy that didn't
hold out. He said, he's he's gonna be fine. Like
I have a nine, he's ten. I'm higher on him.
But that is why, like people don't like Pickens, like
I don't like Rishi Rice, It's the same.
Speaker 2: I guess next tier here there are This is in
the wide receiver two territory ranks fourteen to twenty four.
There are six wide receivers that signify that bus tab.
You've got Tedoro McMillan at fourteen, Malik Neighbors at seventeen,
Garrett Wilson at eighteen, Jalen Waddle, Luther Burden, and DeVante Adams.
A again a very eclectic group of wide receivers in there.
The only one there's two there's it's really weird too.
The only two that don't have they have a neutral
upside marker, because all the rest of the guys have
like fours are Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. And Davante
Adams on one part, I'm kind of like, huh, but
it's like he it's just it's touchdown equity and without
the touchdown yeah, without the touchdown equity, you do see
where the downside is. Garrett Wilson, I didn't go as
much because it's the Jets, but there is an element
of like, you know, he is just a monster targ
chair guy, and of Gino is just littering the ball
at him. Like I do think there's some upside, but
I guess I get why you might be a little
bit finicky about it. We can obviously talk about those guys,
but I think, like again, it's I think it's a
little cheap injuries, Like Malik Neighbors is probably the number
one guy, and.
Speaker 1: I probably need to lower him or do you have
him thirteen? I probably need to lower him like seventeen
or eighteen.
Speaker 2: I have him at twenty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe him because of the injury stuff. That's like
the one, but everybody else I'm equal to or have
a better ranking on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you do. I mean I said it in the
last episode. I'm a little busty. I guess if I'm
gonna pick one as Luther Burden, I think the expectations
are really really high on him as a guy that
could be the number one option. But what was my mark?
I said, like a Terry McLaurin. I think he might
live in the Terry McLaurin, which, by the way Terry
McLaurin is fine, and you know there's the potential for
like sometimes being a top fifteen wide receiver, sometimes you
kind of ball out. Didn't love the target share he
was getting when he did start to ball out. Lovely
gonna step up a doonsay for whatever version of health
is going to be out there. I'm just not sold
that he's going to be a guy that I trust
now over you know, a Mecca Aggbuka or buying back
into lad Maconachie or frankly Garrett Wilson. So if I
had to pick one, like neighbors is the cheap, easy answer,
I'm picking Luther Burden. Now you have to pick one
that is not neighbors, which direction do you and not
Adams because you already said Adams is easy neighbors for
the injury. Now you're picking between Burden, Waddle, Wilson, and
Tea McMillan.
Speaker 1: Hmm, probably Garrett Wilson again, although I don't really believe it.
I think Garrett Wilson would be the one that I
would I would say just because I hate Gino, like
I Gino getting another chance is hate Gino.
Speaker 2: No one hates a player like Bogman hages Gino.
Speaker 1: It's not even that I hate him. I hate that
he gets all of this praise because he won't come
back Player of the Year, which was great. He was awesome.
He was much better than I thought he was going
to be. But the Seahawks got rid of him and
literally won the Super Bowl, right like, Gino was obviously
the thing holding them back the year before. So he
was miserable with the Raiders, and I don't think he's
gonna be much better for the Jets. So that's why
I think Kate Klubknick starts games. That's why I would
fade Garrett Wilson.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel a little bit indifferent about him. I feel,
you know, I don't say I'm a little torn on
the jyll and Waddle one, Like I want to really
be in especially much better offense, much more of a
pass better offense. But Sutton is still there, and they
I don't know what level they're gonna do with all
the remember the weird like wide receiver rotational stuff they
would kind of get into.
Speaker 1: See a lot of work better with Tyreek Hill though,
right like he's better with somebody else.
Speaker 2: On the Yeah, And I don't think Courtland Sutton is that,
you know, great of an option, But you know, there
was a lot of just ball flying around at different players,
and here's Troy Franklin and here's Marvin Mims, and here's
seventy other guys. Maybe waddle lightens that I just don't know,
But I'm probably a little bit more pushy on wanting
to Wattle, wanting to draft McMillan. This is a weird
territory for me. I'm not really this is an indifferent,
neutral range. Whereas I feel I'm not into Adams, I'm
probably busting burden. I want to be into neighbors, but
I'm too worried about the injury stuff. And then like McMillan,
Wilson and Wattle are not like massive targets of mine.
So we move. We move to the next range, twenty
five through thirty seven. Here there are eight wide receivers
with the four or higher bus tag. Let me take
a look to any of them have a five? None
of them have a five, seeing if there was major
bus potential in any of those. But there are a
couple that have some low upside plays. So the said
wide receivers are Jamison Williams who comes in at twenty five,
Christian Watson at twenty seven, Marvin Harrison at thirty one,
Alec Pierce at thirty two, Cortland Sutton at thirty four,
Brian Thomas, Jordan Tyson a rookie in here, and Chris Godwin.
The lowest upside plays according to these markers are Chris
Godwin and Courtland Sutton are the lowest.
Speaker 1: I feel like that's just every old guy. Yeah, I mean,
I think have a lot of that. No one is
ranking them high, I think is why they get that.
Speaker 2: So then maybe the interesting one to you is with
a neutral upside play is Brian Thomas who you were
you said you kind of want to buy back into
you actually have them a little bit lower than ECR.
But Brian Thomas one of those players with a neutral
upside to high bust potential, And I kind of don't
disagree with it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, I mean, and I have him lower. I
have him as a wide receiver four, so do I
I would pick him to have a better year than
anybody else in Jacksonville. But I kind of just don't
want to buy into anything that isn't Trevor Lawrence in
Jacksonville to be honest with you, because you know, like
maybe if you want Brenton Strange for that mid tier
tight end or whatever, that's fine. But I think even
there they're gonna use multiple tight end sets. Cozy all
can catch it. So yeah, I just I think they're
going to switch those guys around too much. There's too
many of them. We mentioned it on the last show,
those four world wide receivers that can all work for Jacksonville,
And they're gonna have fewer three and four wide receiver
sets because they have so many tight ends this year,
and that's what they're moving towards.
Speaker 2: Oh, I want to ask you a different question, but
I want to stick to this one that's in my brain.
Do you think there should be any bust difference between
Brian Thomas and Marvin Harrison? Junruh, No, Actually I don't.
Who do you think is a bigger bust potential, Harrison
or Thomas? I know you have Harris, Yeah, you have Harrison.
Higher What do you think about a rookie coming up
on this bus, Meeter, I don't think we've had.
Speaker 1: That's because of his hamstring thing, in my opinion, like
he had the hamstring thing at ASU last year. And
you know, just missed a couple of games, played Gimpion
some games as well. Didn't do everything at the Combine
because he was coming off the hamstring thing. Still had
the hamstring thing in OTAs, So if it's still there
in training camp, then I'm going to lower him, right.
And I think that's the worry is I don't think
it has anything to do with his talent. In my opinion,
Chris Olave should lead that team by a lot still,
but I mean they just didn't have anybody else, so Tyson,
Tyson's going to see targets if he's on the field.
Speaker 2: It's interesting too. There's a couple of injury guys. Christian
Watson is all is just you know, favorite other thing today.
Speaker 1: Okay, but real quick, what is the most catches, most
receptions our boy Christian Watson has had in the season.
Speaker 2: Well, she oh, I mean, I don't know, forty five.
Speaker 1: Forty one so thirty five last year. He's a deep threat,
he makes big plays, played eleven games last year.
Speaker 2: Don't play the games. Yeah, Well, I wasn't trying to
be dismissive of it, but no, no, I know, I'm just like,
there's injury concern He's.
Speaker 1: The guy that I have lowest on this list is Watson?
Speaker 2: Okay, so that would because the next question was going
to be like, who are you really busting out of
this list? And yeah, I guess that I'm looking. You're
a little bit lower on the biggest difference Alec Pierce,
You're slightly over, but you are significantly different on Christian Watson.
So that's your bust out of this range.
Speaker 1: Definitely Christian Watson. He doesn't catch the ball enough to
interest me and he gets hurt a lot, So pass.
All right.
Speaker 2: Going to the projections versus ecr bus, there are quite
a few. I don't think I'm gonna do all of them.
I'm going to stick to the big core players. But
these are four or more spots different from where they're
being ranked to what the projection puts them at. And
there's some kind of there's some big names on here,
so and take it for what it is. Again, we're
not trying to say these guys are just how the
projections putting them out versus how they're being ranked. They
do not match up. The rank is higher. Story with
Nico Collins. Nico Collins is ranked eighth on the list,
but His projection makes him the twelfth wide receiver projected
eighty two for twelve hundred and seven touchdowns. Very strong season.
But if you're coming out as the eighth, by the way,
and I'm looking at the projection here slightly, I just
want to give a couple of the names that pop
up above him.
Speaker 1: You have, say, because they got him for eighty two
and a half catches, twelve hundred yards and seven touchdowns,
and there's eleven guys ahead of him.
Speaker 2: You have christ so Lave, George Pickens, and I would
say AJ Brown are probably the maybe surprises above him,
justin Jefferson, Rai, Rashei Rice. I mean that's probably one
you're different about that. That's I think where people get
worked up about Rashi Rice. He is the seventh projected
wide receiver, so he is very based on where he's going.
He's the opposite end of this. He's the guy that
is being projected much higher, that is being ranked lower.
You said he's ranked twelfth at wide receiver. He is
this seventh projected So you have Rashi Rice, AJ Brown, Pickens,
and Olava all projected higher than Nico Collins.
Speaker 1: Interesting. I mean, it's got to be splitting hairs because
twelve hundred yards and seven touchdowns is a huge here.
No matter who you are, that's.
Speaker 2: It's still great. It's just saying like based off it's
really it really doesn't do too much for you necessarily,
but it's all almost getting out of the wide receiver
one range. Next up T Higgins fifteenth at wide receiver
but projected as the nineteenth wide receiver seventy catches, nine
to sixty four nine touchdowns. That's always kind of the
big marker with T Higgins. Malik Neighbors is projected higher.
I don't know the injury stuff. But also this one
might surprise you. DeVante Adams and DeVante Smith are projected
higher than T. Higgins. So those are a couple of
them maybe the names that might surprise the jump ahead
of him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I might buy DeVante Smith. I'm not buying DeVante Adams.
Speaker 2: Lad McConkey ranked nineteenth twenty fifth on the list. This
is a really tough one because everything got screwed up
last year, but you do taking Allen out of the
offense gets a lot of people going. But you know,
it doesn't necessarily mean anything with McDaniel's offense. If he's
going to slow down, slow it down or whatever, and
it's not as pass heavy, but he is a twenty
fifth projector. So this is the case where a wide
receiver is a mid wide receiver two projected. It's a
wide receiver three seventy six catches, nine seventy six and
six touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Man the Chargers, I have LAD at twenty one, which
is a couple spots below as ecre.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: The Charger situation is kind of weird as well, right, Like,
they also brought in a bunch of tight ends Charlie
Kohler they signed, David and Choku they signed. So are
they gonna use more three tight end sets as well?
And if they do, who's coming off the field. I
don't think it's gonna be LAD. I think it's probably QJ,
which is annoying for QJ. So but if it's not.
If it is LAD, then QJ is gonna be on
the field. And then what is happening with between Gatson
and Trey Harris those guys, And then we obviously know
Hampton's gonna have a nice run. So yeah, the more
I look at the Chargers, the more it's blending towards
the Jaguars, and I don't like him.
Speaker 2: A couple wide receivers we talked about the one I'm
putting on the bus marker. Luther Burden is ranked as
a twenty third wide receiver but projected as twenty seven,
So that's a back half of a wide receiver two,
projected more as a mid wide receiver three only seventy
two catches nine point fifty and just under six touchdowns,
So right about there. Jalen Wattle twenty two ranked but
twenty ninth projected, so wide receiver two to wide receiver
three projected seventy two catches nine to sixty and the
same amount of touchdown his Burden. They're actually almost projected
as the exact same player.
Speaker 1: I feel like his projection is like his floor. That's
like his stays healthy for seventeen Wattle floor. Yeah.
Speaker 2: See, I kind of agree, and like I think, I like,
I don't think I have Wattle over Burden in this case.
So let's stop there for a second. Collins Higgins, mcconkee, Burden, Wattle,
who's your biggest buy of the bust? Like you're buying
the projection that there. Again, bus is a loose term here,
it's projected quite a bit lower than their rank. But like,
which projection versus a rank? Do you buy most?
Speaker 1: Ye?
Speaker 2: Because I know, yeah, because you're kind of into most
of these guys.
Speaker 1: Yeah, ugh, don't do this to me. Can I pick
everyone below these?
Speaker 2: I could, but that's why we stopped there, because I
know it's easy.
Speaker 1: I guess I would say the downside of Luther Burdon,
who's probably the one, but I have him at twenty,
so I obviously don't think that's going to happen. But
if you're making me pick one, I just think Wattle's
floor is very high. Ladd, I'd say it's between Ladd
and Burden, those are the two. I don't think it's
Higgins as long as Burrow stays healthy. I don't think
it's Collins because he's the number one on that team.
Speaker 2: So you might have been saying a conky though you
were building up to say, because you were a little
bit worried.
Speaker 1: Ab Well, I mean, but I don't I don't have
that much lower. I guess he's the one guy having
this list that it's lower than ECR. So yeah, okay, fine,
I'll say I'll say Ladd. I think I think you
convinced me that Ladd would be my guy out of
this group. So yeah, I'll say, I'll say.
Speaker 2: Lad Christian Watson twenty seven on ECR, but thirty two,
so it's a little bit closer to what you were
doing here. Thirty two projected nine hundred yards, fifty fifty
six catches, seven touchdown.
Speaker 1: Never disagreed with projections, that's completely correct.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say, like, it's just a lot of rookies
and that you kind of probably know the story. Carnelate,
Jordan Tyson.
Speaker 1: Makayle unproven guys is the way to say it here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well everyone's unproven and there's no real true baseline
outside of just you know, modeling type of stuff. If
you had to say, what, what's the wide receiver here?
You think is going to fail? And by virtue of
the valuation because Carnel tit is a wide receiver three
projected to be a wide receiver four. Tyson is thirty
seven in the project and the ranks, so right out
of wide receiver three but still projected in the same range.
And Kayle Lemon is like a wide receiver four projected
almost as a wide receiver five. Who do you think
from the significance and everything is the biggest bust of that? Man.
Speaker 1: I got them all kind of close to each other.
I have I have Tate it. What's Tate's CCR. I
got him at thirty.
Speaker 2: He Oh gosh, I'm not thirty. Oh well his rank
is thirty.
Speaker 1: Okay, then I'm right in line there. Uh So I
guess I would say mikayle Lemon, I have him at
thirty nine. I think. I think with mkayle Lemon, you can.
I'd say it for Tyson two, but like they just
don't have any other targets in New Orleans, Like Tyson
needs to catch the ball there. Jawan Johnson is fine.
But with McKayle Lemon, it's like, okay, well, we have Davante,
we have Saquon, we have Goddard, all established right, and
then Eli Stowers is breathing down Goddard's neck as well.
For I would say probably more touchdown. So I guess Lemon,
but I kind of like all these guys too.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to quarterbacks here. I gotta say,
there's a lot of quarterbacks on this list that are
given the four bust marker. I think it's getting used
a little bit loosely, but it creates a good conversation.
Speaker 1: Lucy Goosey on your QB rankings here, aren't you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, top twelve quarterbacks are four that are given the
four bust marker. Here you have Lamar Jackson at two,
Joe Burrow at four, Jayden Daniels at five, and Jackson
Dart at ten. If we are being honest with ourselves,
I'm open to the conversation. I just don't think you're
gonna do it. We can have a conversation if we
really think one of those quarterbacks is going to be
a failure. It is clearly Jackson Dart is the only
guy because you know he runs. He's like Juggernaut running
through a brick wall. The injuries took away part of
the season could be without some neighbors. We just don't
know if he's gonna kind of lay back and and
take care of himself a little bit more. But there's
tons of rushing upside. Like we know what the upside
play is. But like I would love to hear a
case if you had one for Jackson, Burrow and Daniels, but.
Speaker 1: You were on case it's all injury.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, it's just it's for you. I think it's
just purely injury based in Dart. Yeah, there anything beyond
injury for Dart for you, No.
Speaker 1: I mean maybe the wide receiver corps. You could say
that about JD as well, right, so, but you can't
say it about Lamar or Burrow. I think they both have,
especially Burrow, they have great receiver cours. So yeah, like
both those guys to use fits his saying, I mean
JD runs around like goddamn crash test stummy right like,
and Jackson Dart is right behind him in that. So
it's the injuries for those two guys. And yeah, if
we're picking one, it has to be dark here to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I don't really think there's a ton more
to go through, though there is a little bit more
to follow up on Joe Burrow shortly. The next range
is your super flexy quarterbacks. Probably in some cases might
be your quarterback one and a super flex if someone
goes hard playing more quarterback twos. And believe me, the
top guy is not like the other. But from thirteen
to twenty three or twenty four if you want to
call it, there are six quarterbacks that have the marker.
Here you have Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Malik Willis, C. J. Stroud,
and Sam Darnold. I would lightly like Patrick Mahomes is
pretty blatantly obvious, though you know his production is tapered
back down a little bit. Matthew Stafford was insane last year,
and like you have been talking about, I just still
struggle with like as zcr so low compared to his
production and running back the weapons, it's super weird. Yeah,
there's the back so again an injury thing. Baker Mayfield's
kind of his own beast here. But to me, I
think you start staring at like Malik Willis, Stroud and Darnold,
But I think you can also put the question of
like are they really buss you know that late, but
those are the potential. So really, I'm going to just
open this up. Is there somebody in this group that
you make a compelling case for that you think they
are a true fantasy bust and you can use injury
because I know you are lower on Patrick Mahomes than most,
But who is a real fantasy bust out of this group?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Your ram says Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1: It's Mahomes, right, Like I just everyone is saying he's
going to start week one. I don't think he is.
I don't think they need him to, right. I think
he misses the first month. Maybe they go one and three,
maybe they go two and two, whatever, and then Mahomes
is back in to get him in the playoff push.
So I do think Mahomes will be fine once he
gets in there. But it's either he's going to be
fine once he gets in there because they waited, or
he's going to be gimpy for the first month. And
I don't like that either. So yeah, Mahomes is my
guy here.
Speaker 2: If I'm really torn on this one, like I almost
just don't see CJ. Stroud is even qualifying. I think
Sam Donald is kind of a value, to be honest
with you, Malik Willis is getting close to that range.
I kind of wonder if it's Baker Mayfield. I know
the injuries really took him back, you know, this past season,
and he still does have really good weapons, but he
did lose a safety net of Mike Evans and Rob Rashid.
Rashard White was kind of a safety net. I know,
you get gain well, but he's ranked so low. I
think it's hard to do that one. I think myhome
seems a little bit obvious.
Speaker 1: Baker. Baker also is like trying to get an extension
and they're having real problems there. So yeah, animosity.
Speaker 2: Baker's I think like Malik Willis has all the makings
of being the biggest buss because like we were hyping
him up and you're getting some kind of hype of
like people are gonna want to target him as a
QB two and super flex and stuff like that, and
there's real potential to be a failure here when you
take him over a Sam Donald, who could just be
this safety cool guy at the end. Uh, you had
a couple other guys in the lower tier Daniel Jones,
Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett. They're not even quarterback two. So
I don't really think you can bust any of that.
Speaker 1: I think all those guys have a better chance to
bust than to you know, like have a top you
know QB one finish. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Sure, in the projected versus ECR bust Joe Burrow number
four on ECR quarterback but projections number seven. That's significant enough,
especially if you consider where the fourth versus the seventh
quarterback goes in drafts, he's projected forty one hundred yards
close to forty two hundred thirty three touchdowns. There's a
little bit of rushing upside. And let me just look here,
just to give real true perspective, let me go to
overall and let me go to quarterback four. Where do
you think the quarterback four goes, which is Joe Burrow
overall thirty four forty six forty see quarterback seven goes
sixty seven. So that is a twenty spot difference where
you could do two other things with picks if you
believe that you are very pro Joe Burrow, though, so
I don't know how much you love this, but that
is a pretty wafty ECR versus what their actual projection
puts them.
Speaker 1: I think a little bit of that is built into
just like the injured seasons that he's had, and last
year was one of them. Again, so I understand people
being out on Joe Burrow, but it's like Joe Burrow
has one of the best wide receiving corps in the NFL.
He plays for seventeen games, He's going to be over
forty five hundred yards close to forty touchdowns, all that stuff.
So I'm just, you know, in a one QB league,
I want to own Joe Burrow because I know there
are guys on the wire that are gonna be fine
if he gets hurt. And in that scenario, if I'm
drafting Joe Burrow, I'm okay backing him up, even in
a short bench because of his injury history. But uh yeah,
I'm pretty pro Joe Burrow. I don't think he's gonna
if he plays all year, he's not gonna be seven quarterback.
Speaker 2: Eight was justin Herbert, but his projection is the twelfth
quarterback on Fantasy pros. Projections just short shy of thirty
nine hundred yards, twenty six touchdowns, plenty of rushing yards,
just shy of five hundred with a couple touchdowns. Caleb
Williams comes in at seven, but his projection is thirteen,
so he has higher rank than Herbert, but projections are
below Herbert. The projection is thirty eight hundred passing yards,
twenty seven touchdowns, about four hundred rushing yards and two touchdowns.
And then the last one very different from these guys,
cam Ward twenty four to twenty eight, kind of a
nothing Burger there maybe speaks a little bit more to
why I'm not super into him. But Herbert and Williams,
that's enough of a dramatic change out there to throw out.
And a couple of the players that are higher, just
for one more perspective, let me get over to quarterbacks,
and the projections higher than both of those guys are
Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purty relative
to Ranks and Jackson Dart I would throw out all
projected higher than both justin Herbert and Caleb Williams, not
by other worldly dramatic numbers. I want to point out,
it's nothing creat Jackson Darts projected like the most, but
it's still within like half of a game total really,
so they're all pretty close, but Herbert and Williams coming
in quite a bit lower than their ECR. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean those numbers that you listed off for Caleb
Williams projections are almost identical to what he did last year, right, So, like,
is there is there no upside in Caleb Williams at all?
That's kind of my question. Give me his numbers again,
what do you give him or what was projections given?
How many passing yards.
Speaker 2: But like, I'll give you that to you, I guess
I look at more of the question of like, I
guess I see what you're saying here, because it's there's
also a really talented group volume passers Brock Party, Dak Prescott,
Trevor Lawrence's volume passers that are superseding him. Caleb is
thirty eight twenty seven on the passing.
Speaker 1: He was thirty nine forty two last year, twenty seven
and a half touchdowns twenty twenty seven last year. Okay,
nine picks seven last year.
Speaker 2: Essentially four hundred rushing yards.
Speaker 1: Three hundred and eighty three last year and two touchdowns
three touchdowns, So he's actually got worse.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's like a little touchdowny regression stuff. But then
in the same you have a healthy Dak, healthy Joe Burrow,
Jackson Dart is healthy.
Speaker 1: They are.
Speaker 2: It's cementing a couple of healthy quarterbacks that they think
have higher upside.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was, I don't think they have a higher upside.
I think they have a safer floor. I think Dak
has a safer floor than almost anybody. Right, Like, if
Dak plays, he's going to be great. That doesn't play
every game though, like he hasn't historically, so there's injury
issues with him as well. So and he's older, so
I don't know. I just think I understand where the
projections are coming from. And if you want to bake
in the downside of those quarterbacks, okay, but I'm all
over Caleb Williams taking a step up and Justin Herbert
having a better offensive line this year. So I just
don't really agree with those two takes, that's all all right.
Speaker 2: Finally, it is the tight ends in the top twelve
five tight ends. There's plenty of numbers in here. You've
got Harold Fannin coming in at six, Kyle Pitts at seven,
Dalton Kinkaid at ten, George Kittle at eleven, and Jake
Ferguson at twelve. They were all given the dreaded four
potential bust marker. I want to look at the upside
real quick. Ferguson and Kinkaid were not given the upside,
though they were given below average only two on the upside.
Everybody else was kind of given the four, which is
the relative neutral number. That's kind of even though neutral
is three, four is like kind of common amongst all
of them. It's funny because I love King Kate, I
love fannin this year. I like Pits enough. I think
I've mentioned this before. I think the combo of like
a likely in Kittle or even if you want to
go like another boring guy in Kittle, is incredible. I
don't have strong feelings about Kincaid and Frank. They don't
have strong feelings about Ferguson. So if you had to
pick a tight end out of this group, that's a
that is a true bust. Is it is kinkate or bust.
Speaker 1: It's definitely kink to me. Like you know, they have
other tight ends on the roster. They've added wide receiver
help in DJ Moore, So how does he get better?
I don't think he does that. That's the guy for me.
I will say this, right, like with all of the
past catchers that the Browns added, there's a chance for
Harold Fannon to take a backstep. I still think he's
a tight end one no matter what, right, especially because
in joke Who's Gone and all that, But there is
a chance for right in the backstep because Casey Concepcion
is going to demand the ball. I think Denzel Boston
was their favorite in camp. He was playing better than
anybody else. So like if those guys both work, there's
probably less there for Fannin. So I could squint and
see Fannin like you know, unlike with the quarterbacks, unlike
with Kate Williams and Justin Herbert, I could see it
for I just wouldn't predict it. I think that he's
still going to lead them in reception.
Speaker 2: I can appreciate that from week and half PPR from
weeks ten on, so the back half of the season,
only six tight ends, uh no, seven tight ends averaged
ten or more points per game. Harold Fannon was in
that list. I think he was number six. Brock Bauer
is a little confusing because he didn't play the last
two weeks, so from a total points perspective, he got
Harold fan It actually's fifth. He averagedero point zero one
more than brock Bauers per game during that time, not
total points. So I totally get what you're saying. I
just I think he's the safety net. I think he
got a lot of like big like you know, guys
like Isaia Bond stretching.
Speaker 1: Well, he was a safety net for shador Is. He
gonna be the same thing for Watson. That's a big question.
Speaker 2: That is a fantastic question and more of a reason
you want shador In there. I just really like Fannin.
I think it's gonna be hard to get the ball
out of his hands either, whether they're playing screen passes
a lot, you know, keeping him in blocking situations for
Jutkins and then play action just green pass to him.
Stuff like that.
Speaker 1: Like, I really like, seventy two catches as a rookie
tight end is enormous.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, like especially for the cost, Like where's the
general ring?
Speaker 1: I mean, I like Isaiah likely had twenty seven catches
last year, you know what I mean? Yeah, Fan it
had seventy two.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Fannin in the seven late seventies of drafts,
you know, tight end six late seventies. I mean, you know,
when you know you have to pay a top forty
pick for Lovelan. Again, not trying to hate on Lovelin
or anything like that, or even Tyler Warren is in
the fifties going into almost the eighties and getting Fan
and I just I just really like that. I think
Kittle's an answer. I think Ferguson maybe Ferguson definitely can.
Like you know, you got one hundred targets and you
can see some pickens.
Speaker 1: Both stay healthy all year, What is left for Ferguson.
Speaker 2: That's what I'm getting with. If they're both healthy and
Flora is taking a step up, maybe Ferguson's upside isn't
quite there. So if I'm busting I'm probably I'm definitely
busting Kincaid. I'm busting for I think Kittle being on
here is kind of silly, to be honest with you,
because it's like you already know what you're in for. Yeah,
the next list of thirteen through twenty three, I be honestly,
it's almost everybody likely Goddard, Andrews, Gadsden, Henry, Sadiq and Hawkinson.
It's kind of silly on this list. The true markers here,
I think are right in the middle. I think Andrews,
Gadsden and Henry are them. You're gonna disagree with Andrews
because I know you haven't ranked really high.
Speaker 1: I'm no likely.
Speaker 2: I know that there's no likely. I think that's great
are but there also might not be anymore Andrews, like
he just might be washed, like he couldn't stay he
couldn't stay healthy. They didn't trust him in any situations.
I just don't know if he has being holed up
in the season, so why pay a high price for him?
So I'm a bust kind of on Andrews based on
how I think people like Andrew Erickson you are going
to value him. And I think the most popular one
is Aronda Gadston. Like I remember Get a tight End
episode and everyone was like, Nope, nothing on Gadsden anymore.
Is there anybody else in this list that you think
kind of fits that mold?
Speaker 1: I don't know why Sidiq is this high, Like I
get it, he is a first round pick, but to
be a tight end, even a tight end to the Jets.
The Jets are looking for pass catches, right, but we
talked about Adnai Mitchell and Omar Cooper in the last episode,
So I'm I just I don't think and they drafted
Mason Taylor, right, so I think Mason Taylor might start
the year as the number one tight end. So I
just I don't think Sadik is going to have much
work as a as a rookie.
Speaker 2: The most interesting thing that comes of this because I
saw this a little bit earlier. Is t is Tucker
Craft when we go to projections versus ECR, this is
And I think this has to do with a lot
with volume, obviously missed time and stuff.
Speaker 1: Like maybe coming off the injury too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're coming up the injury. There's a volume situation.
There's still a lot of mouths to feed. I think
there's touchdown equity, but I think people are worried about
what the target share ultimately is. Tucker Craft is the
tight end five in ECR, but he is tenth in projections.
And I know he's a love child of many here
projected fifty eight catches though seven forty nine and six touchdowns.
I gotta be honest with you. I don't think that's unreasonable.
Maybe the touchdowns go up. You know, love definitely likes
him if he can stay healthy. I see a world
where he's catching nine or ten touchdowns. Maybe the yards
are down, and that probably pushes him as a top five.
But seven fifty with six touchdowns and almost sixty catches
is no better than projected tenth tight end in here.
So that's kind of an eye opener.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know, man like Tucker was really really
good last year before getting hurt. Now, obviously Christian Watson
was gone in that time. I think Jayden Reid also
got hurt there, So you know, you can squint and
see it for Tucker Craft. But I don't know, dude.
I think he's an elite tight end if healthy. Now
there are big questions going to camp, which is I
think part of this right is that we're not He
is not guaranteed for Week one quite yet, but I
think he'll get there and I think he'll be okay.
So I'm I'm a fade on the fade of Tucker Craft.
Speaker 2: Two more touchdowns would put him as projected tight end seven,
So just think about that. But I'm that's a good
and also not a great thing when you're the tight
end five fans.
Speaker 1: We'll do this two touchdowns less, so twelve fewer points.
Where does he go?
Speaker 2: Twelve fewer points would so he only scores four touchdowns.
There's one he would man, he would be down with
Juwan Johnson. That would be like tight end like seventeen.
There you go, yeah, so some volatility there. Also our boy,
we talked about him, Chicka Koko twentieth an ECR, but
twenty six and projections. We said, the projections look really weird.
Aronda Gadsden e c R seventeen projected twenty seven.
Speaker 1: Biggest difference of any player, yep, outside of maybe Eli
Stowers down here, but we're talking about buried tight ends.
But he's the biggest of ours here ten points. I
could see this going either way. Now, I'm firmly on
the I don't want Jake, I don't want Ronde Gaston's side, right.
I think he had thirty four point seven percent of
his projection or somewhere in that neighborhood. It was over
thirty percent. Was in two games last year, So on
a week to week basis, I don't think you can
count on him. I don't know. I think he's better
than twenty seven. I think he's still going to be
a tight end too, but not much more than that.
So it's a.
Speaker 2: Very interesting list kind of across the board. You know,
you take a look at the projection versus the ECR
and the players that don't add up. Do you buy it?
Do you sell it? There's a litany of names just
by virtue of like you know these systems, you know,
the systems spitting out like there's high upside, and you
know that gets a little bit more refined. I think
as the seasons that we get in season also, I
think I actually want to kind of talk and see
what's behind. I know obviously it's like volatility injuries. I
love that there were lots of names because it's I
think it creates fun conversation. But when you do dig in,
like who are really the ones that have the highest
bus potential that people are talking about? There's a handful
of names we did across the board, but we talked
about a lot of them. Hopefully you guys done it,
but doug it. But who's busting for you? Who are
the players that you think or bust this season? You
guys can let us know what do you agree and
disagree with. You can find our ranks over on Fantasy
pros as being part of the aggregate. But if you
want our rank ranks in this league dot com. In
this League dot com, sign up today get access to
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Speaker 1: Commander, we've also done that.
Speaker 2: Ass You're becoming like a you know, like a premier
Dynasty voice out there as well, so people should give
a little bit more credit. You're one of the main
heads of the Dynasty Fantasy Pros channel. You do your
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Speaker 1: We just appreciate you guys doing that
Speaker 2: So thank you so much for the consideration that is