Speaker 1: Coming off a best bet sweep in College Football Week ten,
College Football Week eleven is upon us. We've got more
of those barking dogs. Of course we're gonna break down
those top twenty five games. Get a little look from
behind the computer screen in the steam room from VR
Marco's Deli still rocking and rolling if you guys have
been falling along there. Another six to two in one week,
Man twenty seven to seventeen on the season, and of
course we're gonna try to sweep those best bets again.
Speaker 2: Up next on bet on It.
Speaker 1: Kelly Stewart here VR in the middle, Marco sitting there
in the third chair. Guys, this has been a really
great week outside of my Kansas State Wildcats, so we're
gonna try to run it back here with the TV
Game's Marco. This is a game that I'm gonna be
getting involved in. But I'm really curious to see your
thoughts on this big twelve matchup twelve PM Eastern number
eight BYU catching ten and a half. Now, I know
this is the one that's kind of went back and
forth at Texas Tech, number nine in the country, fifty
three and a.
Speaker 2: Half, and I lied, VR is gonna touch on this game.
Speaker 1: I'm just so excited you guys, Like when you have
that great week, like I did opening line report with
Teddy on Monday morning, if you guys haven't seen that yet,
and it was so hard for me because I'm like,
what do you mean, Teddy?
Speaker 2: I had a four in one week? What do you mean?
Speaker 3: Teddy?
Speaker 1: Like, when you have a good week, you're giddy, You're
excited for that next week.
Speaker 2: Coming up, and right now, I'm excited.
Speaker 1: If you guys are excited, drop it in the comment section,
say something nice, maybe for a change, because we kicked
ass last week, We're gonna do it again this week.
Speaker 2: VR tell me you like Texas Tech here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, and right now?
Speaker 4: In college football, bet on it twenty three and seven,
twenty three and seven overall and nine to one on
these TV games. Now, I haven't released a premium play here,
but I trust my power ratings and I know I've
gotten pushback in the comments section, but so far, I
think we're ahead again.
Speaker 3: Not every time.
Speaker 4: Is the team that I say is the better power
rated team, like they're going to lose that next week. Well,
what I'm trying to explain is they're overvalued they're higher
ranked than they should be, and as we've seen with
a lot of these teams, the Miami's, the Georgia Techs,
they'll start dropping in the rankings like they should. BYU
another perfect example. Now, this isn't a bet on Texas Tech.
This is a fade of BYU, because I do think
Texas Tech is also a little bit higher than they
should be on the rankings, but the difference is BYUS
just way out there. In fact, BYUS not a top
ten team, BYUS, not a top twenty team, I use,
barely a top thirty team power rating wise, and.
Speaker 3: That's what we're looking to fade here. Now.
Speaker 4: The negative for Texas Tech is the recency bias. That's
what's held me off from firing. They're coming off back
to back wins where they scored forty plus and outperformed
the betting market. When a team does that, you expect
the correction. That's what's kept me off Texas Tech. Had
they not blown out Kansas State, had they not shut
out Oklahoma State, I think we'd be laying seven and
a half eight here and then we'd be firing a
four percent play.
Speaker 3: But they got it up to double digits.
Speaker 4: That's keeping me off of getting it a window, and
I think it's enticing BYU Money, which I really do
think is the wrong side. Listen, b why use continues
to not just win but outperform the betting market. And
I always talk about that, it's very efficient, it's going
to correct. And when you're winning like BYU is and
not just covering games but winning outright as an underdog
like that's really outperforming.
Speaker 3: It's very hard to sustain that. So for me, it's
a fade of BYU here.
Speaker 4: I like the Texas Tech side again, more about BYU
real quickly strength of schedule, barely top fiftieth strength of schedule,
and with this easy schedule like that, don't even have
a top twenty offense, barely have a top top point defense,
barely have a top twenty offense.
Speaker 3: Lay the points here.
Speaker 4: With Texas Tech they should win this one by three
plus touchdowns.
Speaker 3: I haven't gotten the window yet, but I do like
the Texas Tech side.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm gonna get to the window on
the Texas Tech side.
Speaker 1: We'll kind of see. You mentioned that BYU Money. All
jokes aside. My dad when I talked to him this morning,
he loves BYU.
Speaker 2: You guys know what to do.
Speaker 1: This reminds me of last week's matchup when I leaned
Cincinnati early in the week and Marco said, not so fast, Kelly,
you need to be paying attention to this Utah team.
I'm gonna say this, Yes, Texas Tech blew out Kansas
State last week, but yes, be wary that fourth quarter
was a little bit more indicative of the defense being
a little bit tired in case State basically.
Speaker 2: Puking all over themselves.
Speaker 1: Marco D'Angelo, You're gonna have to wait a few more
minutes because I'm gonna break down the three point thirty
PM Eastern game number three Texas A and M minus
seven and a half at number nineteen Missouri forty eight
and a half. Here is the total right now on
the Odds logic screen. Kind of different thought process here, right.
I know that I've been saying I've been wanting to
fade uh Texas A and M several times this year,
and I haven't really found great spots. There was a
couple of different opportunities where they did not cover. But
Texas A and M is looking like a solid team
like they've been paying for for the last decade.
Speaker 2: But this Missou team.
Speaker 1: Not only as a home underdog seventeen and nine, they
are on an epic run here twenty two nine against
the spread coming off thereby.
Speaker 2: You guys remember they.
Speaker 1: Ended up losing that game to Vanderbilt two weeks ago
despite having over one hundred yards as an edge.
Speaker 2: Right, So we want to kind of look for those teams.
Speaker 1: Yes, the third ranked Aggies, everybody wants to talk about them,
but VR talks about power ratings. I'll get with him
here in a minute to see where he has the
Aggies rated, but they're definitely not a top five team.
Missouri's run defense, I think is going to be able
to stifle that offense.
Speaker 2: We're gonna kind of keep an eye on it.
Speaker 1: Colin Klein's Name's been thrown out a lot, not just
for Kansas State, but I've heard Oklahoma State, Arkansas for
head coaching jobs. Eventually, some of that chatter kind of
gets in the way of some of these teams, so
keep in mind there. I haven't gotten to the window
with Miszoo money line just yet, but no, they're on
my long list to possibly make my three team underdog
parlay VR really quick before we get too. Can you
tell me where you have E and M rated in
your power ratings.
Speaker 4: A and M's not in my top ten yet, they
have not cracked the top ten. I'm telling you now,
I would make Penn State favor over Texas on a
neutral field, I really would. I would make Michigan A
pick them against them. I would make USC A pick
them against them, like that's that's where they are, and
that's that's moving them up as well. I actually have
Missouri in my top twenty, so is not all that
far behind Texas A and M. I'm tempted to get
to the window with Missouri too. It's only a matter
of time before Texa. The wheels fall off for Texas
A and M. They're not finishing the season undefeated. If
they do, they're just gonna get blown out in the
playoffs anyway.
Speaker 3: By real there you go.
Speaker 1: Some of those early playoff lines are out, and some
of them are a little more shocking. We'll get to
one of those during the Barking Dog segment. Marco is
this dog barking long list? I looked to try to
make a case for LSU underanked catching double digits at
number for Alabama.
Speaker 2: The total is fifty and a half.
Speaker 1: We all know that little situation teams firing their head coach.
Speaker 2: Are they on your radar?
Speaker 3: Oh, Kelly?
Speaker 5: Normally, that's exactly where I would start in a game
like this is looking at the team that fired the coach,
and especially they had two weeks to prepare for this game.
The new interim coach takes over. But in this instance,
there's two reasons why I'm not gonna do it. All right,
LSU is sitting at five and three. Okay, they came
into this season, and I'll be honest, I was high
on them, and I did have them in that first
game against Clemson. We had a large play on them.
We liked them a lot. I thought they were in
a legitimate national championship contender. The quarterback is underperformed, the
offense in general was underperformed all year, and in my opinion,
they waited too long to make this change. In granted,
when you have a coach like Brian Kelly, you're not
going to fire him immediately, but you saw the signs
of this all season, and then after the Texas A
and M game when they just absolutely had a pathetic
second half. They had the lead at half and they
came out and got the doors blown off them. They
had no choice. It's too late in the season. How
does this team get excited? Yeah, they're five and three,
they can still go to a bowl game. What bowl
game are they going to go to? How do you
sell that to a team that really thought they would
be playing in the playoffs and have a chance for
the national championship. That's why I'm not buying the coaching
angle jumping on the team there. The other reason is
Alabama had a bye week as well, and going into
the bye week they had a scare. They played South
Carolina and I got a lot of grief when I
gave out South Carolina that week is a play on
shows a lot of pushback because how could you go
against Alabama? And it was the spot. It was a
horrible spot for Alabama coming off a big game the
week before then going into their bye week and have
LSU coming out of the by they were gonna look
past South Carolina. South Carolina had been losing and what happened.
South Carolina took them to the fourth quarter. It was late,
The game was tied before Alabama got the last touchdown
and won by seven. Late in the fourth quarter. They're
gonna be focused for this game. That's why I'm not
stepping in front of them. I'm gonna go ahead take Alabama.
I'm gonna lay the number here. Yes, LSU they've lived
on their defense all year, but guys, let's be honest,
this defense has been struggling lately. Last two games. Uh,
they gave up thirty one and forty nine points their
rush defense. And that's important when a team's got a
lead and you know lay in points, you want that
team that's got the lead to be able to run
the ball and be successful. Well, the last four games,
the LSU rush defense has given up one sixty six,
one ninety three, two thirty nine, and two twenty. They're
getting worse. Let's go ahead lay it with Alabama here.
Speaker 2: Oh that was kind of a shocker.
Speaker 1: I totally expected that situational spot from Marco.
Speaker 2: Very good analysis.
Speaker 3: VR.
Speaker 2: Let's get into your steam room, guys. If you're new here.
Speaker 1: You can catch VR steam Room on Sundays before NFL,
but you can catch a mini version of it on
Saturdays for College Football with me on Wager Talks Last Call,
where we go through a ton of college football info
leading up until kickoff.
Speaker 2: I hope you guys have your Odds logic screens.
Speaker 1: Open, because VR is gonna run through this one rapid fire.
Speaker 4: Yeap, just gonna run down some of the moves that
already i've seen confirmation. What I mean is multiple groups
on the same side without resistance. That's the key, especially
in college football where you don't really have the look
aheads that you do in the NFL. So let's start
off with the Saturday action. Will pass on the weekday action.
Drop down the Army against Temple, because anytime that's gotten
to bet up to seven above seven, you've seen some
TakeBack on the Temple side. That's one of those where
it looks like the real moves on the Temple just
hoping it gets bet up, that the Army side gets
bet up. Dropped down to Stanford against North Carolina. On
the opener, got hit at plus nine plus eight and
a half plus eight all the way down to where
it sits now at about a touchdown. So a lot
of love on Stanford against North Carolina. Indiana over Penn State.
This is one of the more one sided public games
as well. Indiana is one of those teams that is
getting love every week at the window up over to touchdown.
Now that was sharp money. But rest the short it's
the public that's pushing it up.
Speaker 3: Other team.
Speaker 4: I'm bringing up Ohio State. They're just getting bet blindly
every single week. And usually what happens with the Benningston
against when they see that is they'll bet those teams
as well and then middle it. Because betton Ohio State
at minus twenty eight and a half when you know
it's going to get above thirty because by Saturday, once
the betting public starts getting involved in Ohio State, this
will get into the thirties thirty one possibly or so.
Speaker 3: That's when you'll see some take back on the underdog.
Speaker 4: So be careful with the top one, two, and three
teams in the rankings because they're well aware that those
are the teams that are going to track the most
public money. Drop down to Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan that
got hit on the money line also won one and
a half on the Eastern Michigan side. And what else
was sticking out real fast?
Speaker 3: Sorry? Oh where was that?
Speaker 4: Yes, Arkansas State against Southern miss Because I saw moneyline action,
that's what I wanted to pass along when you see
him sprinkling at the same time. So taking the Arkansas
State plus the points and on the money line home
dog there against Southern miss I like that side as well,
and we'll end it with Oregon State, one of the
late games on the board that got action at the opener.
Haven't even seen resistance up over twenty, so when it
got bet below twenty, usually when it gets up over twenty, you'll.
Speaker 3: See some TakeBack.
Speaker 4: Has not happened yet, so legit move on Oregon State tomorrow.
Pay attention to your ons logic screen or at the
very least the free on screen at wager talk. The
totals will get hit throughout the day. You'll be able
to confirm some, so you should already go in with
the totals you like under or over you start seeing
the market go in that direction, get the best of
the number before it's gone. So that's gonna do it
for this week's college football steam, hope you do some damage.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get right into those barking dogs. And this
is one that was on my radar as well.
Speaker 2: Marco Auburn.
Speaker 1: Why is another team that fired their coach last week
on your radar with a shot to win.
Speaker 5: Out right, all right to take us sounding like I'm
bipoler now, I am going to take the team that
fired the coach, because.
Speaker 2: No, are you off your meds again again?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Last week asked that.
Speaker 5: Well they did, and it was my picks in the NFL.
They were, you know, very concerned that I was, you know,
off my meds. Well, I can tell you what not
that I actually need the meds. But the one pill
that I definitely don't need, I don't need the little
blue pill this week after Carolina come home out right
last week. So uh, definitely there, We're we're okay. So
thanks for everybody worried about the meds there. But with
this one, let's go ahead. We are going to look
to the firing of the head coach because this will
be a spark. Uh, we have that in play to
start with. You know, you freeze. You know, this has
been a disappointing year. This team, uh has lost all
these games in a row. They have been in games,
uh and found ways to lose them. But this is
where I jump in. You get that change, you get
that jold of adrenaline, spark, whatever you want to call it,
because the players are gonna play hard this week because
they want to prove it wasn't them, it was the coach,
it wasn't them. We're gonna get that out of Auburn
this week. But we have a second side to the
story here, Kelly, the Vanderbilt side. Has there ever been
a better classic spot to say, lose the same game twice?
Vanderbilt was getting their doors blown off on Saturday at Texas.
What a doser reality for them. But then all of
a sudden, and I don't you know, and I watched it,
and I still don't believe what I saw because I
was holding a Texas minus three ticket and got the push.
The situation with Vanderbilt coming all the way back converting
two two point conversions into one. I still say he
didn't break the plane. I don't know what they were
looking at, but they ended up with a push. You
come all the way back like that and almost in
the game, and now you know all of the hype
that you had in the Cinderella season. That was the
dream crusher game for me, losing that one for Tech
to Texas for Vanderbilt. I always say, Also, when you
got a dog that plays their guts, out and comes
up short, and they go from a dog to the
favorite the next week. I want no part of the favorite.
That all of that lines me up on Auburn here,
and then you've got a ranked team versus an unranked
team playing at home in lines less than a touchdown.
All of your alarm should be going off in your house.
That's something's wrong there. They're begging you to take that
home favorite that's ranked under the touchdown. I ain't buying it.
I'm taking Auburn plus the points. Let's call it Alburn
twenty three to twenty one. Little upset for the new coach.
Speaker 1: All right, this is the name of the game here
in Barking Dogs, where we're rooting for underdogs to win
the game out right. And you guys both won yours
last week. I did not, but that's another story for
another time. VR, you have a team that is also
on my long list here on this beautiful Wednesday morning,
tell me why.
Speaker 2: You think wake Forest has a shot to win this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, put it on the short list. Seven and three
on the dogs. Five of those came in on the.
Speaker 4: Money line, including Penn State UCLA over Penn State.
Speaker 3: If you remember back in the day. Now.
Speaker 4: With that said, I know it's boring, but this is
what's been making me money over and over and over again.
I try to keep it simple. I don't try to
make it harder than it needs to be. Don't need
to be this mornest guy in the room. I have
a really, really, really good set of power ratings that
I trust from one gentleman, and it's been making me
college football money year in and year out and put
me at number one, up over one hundred and thirty
units so far in twenty twenty five. And here's what
they tell me about this Virginia team. They're as phony,
as phony, as phony as you can get. When I
look at the rankings and I saw that Virginia's ranked fourteenth,
let me tell you where they're power rated. They're not
in the top ten, that's for sure. Fortunately they're not,
thank god, they're not in the ranking top ten. They're
not in the top fifteen. They're not in the top twenty,
not in the top twenty five, not in the top thirty,
not in the top thirty five, not in the top forty,
not in the top forty.
Speaker 3: Five, not in the top fifty.
Speaker 4: They just cracked the top fifty five. That's where Virginia
sits power rating wise. There are fifty teams in college
football that would be favored over Virginia on a neutral field.
That's the truth. That doesn't mean the books would make
those fifty teams favored, because I'll keep repeating it. The
book's job is to manage risk so that they profit.
It's not to predict outcomes of sporting events. That's not
what they do. Okay, Virginia has the seventieth toughest strength
of schedule, and yet with that seventieth toughest strength of schedule,
they're barely a top the offense. They're barely a top
seventy defense. They just cracked the top seventy. And they've
just happened to get lucky with a nice easy schedule.
They've had two games that were difficult for them, Florida
State and Louisville, where they were underdogs. Every other game
they were favored. They did what they're supposed to do.
They won the game when they were a dog first
game of the season or second game of the season.
Speaker 3: NC State they lost.
Speaker 4: They won two games that were hard for them where
they were dogs, Louisville and Florida State. If you click
that box score, what you'll see that both Louisville and
Florida State dominated Virginia destroyed them. If you just looked
at the box score, you would think Virginia got annihilated.
But then you'll find out one of those two teams
fumbled the ball six times and had two interceptions. The
other team fumbled the ball four times and had two interceptions.
They got lucky that those opponents played their absolute worst
brain the football. And don't go telling me that the
defense created those turnovers, because we're talking about the seventieth
best defense efficient wise in college football. So they're not
creating nothing, is what they're doing. Give me wake Forest
plus the points. I don't even like wake Farest they're
a shit team too, but they're catching points from a
real over value team. Fade Virginia, sprinkle the money line.
Wake Forest gets the money. What do they plus six
and a half? Buy it up to seven. Don't lay
more than one twenty four. If you got to lay
more than one twenty four and a half point, don't
do it. Just take the six and a half. We're
not even gonna need that. But you know we're in
the business of place in good bet So if you
could buy the half point, you do it up to
one twenty four only to get the seven.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not gonna lie. Wake Forest is a shit
team and that isn't much.
Speaker 5: I know.
Speaker 1: Listen, I don't mind betting mediocre teams, but betting on
bad teams is so incredibly frustrating. And we talk about
betting on numbers, not teams, and I understand that that
is a lot of what we do. And you know,
catching six six and a half seven with these bad
teams is fine, but wanting them to win outright is
a lot more difficult, right it is. Get that back
door cover is not what I want. I want to
see a team give me four quarters of effort, and
you think we're gonna get that from wake Forest.
Speaker 2: Even though they're a shit team.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, No, you're right.
Speaker 4: And honestly, I shouldn't even think that, oh, they can't
win because I'm placing it because I think that I
had that mistake last week in in the NFL where
because I like Minnesota and we had that same discussion
and you're like, you think they could win the game,
and I'm like, I don't think so you know what
I mean, They did exactly what exactly, so you shouldn't
overthink it. If you like the underdog and your your
work's pointing you to the underdog, then they probably have
a shot unless they're like a thirty point dog, and
you should.
Speaker 2: Now, well, you did call UCLA over Penn State, So
that's the work.
Speaker 3: This is the.
Speaker 1: Biggest underdog to ever cash in the marking dogs segment.
All right, I'm gonna take Iowa plus six and a half.
We're all going with the undertouchdown underdogs here, and bottom line,
I'm taking Iowa the better defense here. Eight and one
against the spread is a single digit Big Ten home
underdog in their last nine tries, six and one against
the spread this year. Now, I understand Oregon had a
nice road win already this year in the Big Ten
at Penn State there in overtime, but they also lost
Indiana right afterwards at home by double digits. That three
point loss to Iowa State is far in the rear
view mirror for the Hawkeys, and if you remember, they
took that same Indiana team to the wire and had
multiple shots to win it. Grenawski sixty eight percent on
the season and has rushed for over two hundred and
twenty five yards with eight touchdowns. This kid is a
great quarterback and normally we see these guys that stand
in the pocket too long for Iowa. But with Brian
Farrence gone, this Iowa offense is different and I think
that they have an opportunity to not only cover this game,
but win it there in Kinnick, Marco DiAngelo, the Deli,
as I mentioned to start the show, has just been
rocking and rolling all season long. Guys, if you like
the Deli, you can watch it here on the college
football edition of Bettan, on the NFL edition of Beta,
or on Fridays, we put out an entire Deli segment
standalone here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Speaker 2: Last week was four and one, twenty seven and seventeen
on the season.
Speaker 1: Marco, we got a little sandwich spot here for the
Florida Gators.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Kelly, the Deli has been great this season, six
to two and one, winning weeks wise for it in
the NFL play on the show eight and won this year,
So be sure to check out the Deli. It'll be
out on Thursday and for the sandwich game this week.
Kelly Man, we've had a lot of games involving fired
coaches this week and this is going to be another one.
And last week when we talked about Florida, we didn't
know how Florida was going to react to the coach
being fired, because it's probably the only time that I
can remember a coach being fired after winning a football game.
But that's what happened to Billy Napier. They fired him.
They had their bye week, and they had a big
game coming against Georgia. I didn't know how that team
would respond. Well, they did respond, and they played their
guts out and they took Georgia to the limit, losing
twenty four to twenty. Now, for betters in that game,
if you had Georgia or you had the over, I
feel for you, because if you didn't see it, they
took the guy, broke around in the end and went
down at the one yard line at the end of
the game with a minute to play to run out
the clock, they would have walked in for the touchdown
for the cover or walked in for sending the game
over as well. So that was a crazy ending last week.
But here's the reality. Florida did show up the play,
but now they're at two and five, and they had
that initial game after firing the coach. They're in a
mammoth sandwich spot here coming off that game. I can't
look to play them this week because at two and five,
what's to get excited about for this team. The only
time they're gonna get excited is gonna be playing a
game like they did last week against the big name
Georgia where they could play spoiler, or when they play
the rivalry game at the end of the season against
Florida State. I think they are a mellet in the
rest of the way. They're not going to be excited
going to play Kentucky in this game. And even though
Florida is having a horrible season, for a team like
Kentucky to beat that name Florida, that's a big deal
for them, and Kentucky got they broke their four game
losing streak last week. They won as a twelve point
dog at Auburn the game that got you freeze fired,
so as a home dog they're live. Explain to me
how Florida is favored in this game. They're favored by
their name, not by the way they're playing. I got
to take Kentucky in this one. I am gonna grab
the points, not gonna need them. I see Kentucky winning
this one. Twenty four to twenty sandwich game of the week.
Let's take the Kentucky Wildcats.
Speaker 1: Marco, I just realized my best bet is also a
sandwich spawn. I had to look up something really quick,
and I thought, oh, let's see if Marco likes that one.
Speaker 2: But we're gonna get into these so called best bets
that we swapped last week.
Speaker 1: So easily Nebraska, dammit had opportunities to win that game.
Speaker 2: That's okay. They got the cover and that's what matters.
They are a team that.
Speaker 1: You think is going to get the cover this week
is the Kansas Jayhawks.
Speaker 3: Rock Chalk Jayhawks on the road. Baby yeah yeah.
Speaker 4: Now, all the talk is you're gonna start hearing about
the ball eligibility, ball eligibility, ballligibility, And a narrative about
this around this game is Arizona needs this win loligibility
because it doesn't get much easier than that. Their opponents
remaining are have a combined twenty three and thirteen record,
so they're going to be underdogs in other words, after
this game. So this is a big game and you're
being asked to pay a premium because of that. The
bottom line is this, this is as close to a
quinklip as you're gonna get, and Arizona's getting just way
too much respect for home field advantage. Granted, they're four
and one at home this year. Yeah, four and one
at home, one and two on the road, and I've
talked about it throughout this season. That to me is
a strong home field advantage currently, because again we take
an average when we try to determine what a team's
home field advantage is, and you look over the last
five years, over the last ten years, what's the point
differential at home? You create a home point advantage, But
year by year teams differ. So I like to look
at recent is it really a home field advantage in
twenty twenty five, And obviously it is. They played a
lot better at home than they have on the road.
The problem is the price is just too high. When
I look at my power ratings, these teams are very
comparable to each other. I have Arizona as the forty
fourth power rated team in the country, and I have
Kansas as the forty sixth power rated team in the country.
Kansas had a tougher strength of schedule. Offense almost identical
efficient wise defense give the edge to Arizona, but that's
offset by the strength of schedule that Kansas had the
tougher strength of schedule. This is why I can continue
to come to the conclusion that this game is a
coin flip out of home factor in home field advantage
and the most I'm going to give Arizona for home
field advantage.
Speaker 3: Two two points two point two points, maybe not two
and a half, maybe two and a half at the most.
At the most.
Speaker 4: Again, getting more than a field goal puts me on
the Kansas side. I like both these teams also, especially
Kansas ending that losing spreak. They lost to Kansas State,
they lost to Texas Tech, beat up on Oklahoma State,
got that confidence and heading in Arizona, I think they
keep it close till the very end with a chance
to win it. Just don't turn the ball over. You'll
get me a best bet winner. I released them the
subscribers as a four percent, so got to the window
already with them. We took plus five. They're good down
the plus four, but I wouldn't wait too long.
Speaker 2: Because it's a sharp side, all right.
Speaker 1: If you are at four four and half a little
bit on the odds logic screen.
Speaker 2: How much percentage would you put on the money line?
Would you do? Ninety five to five? Ninety ten, ninety ten?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Okay, cool? I do like Kansas.
Speaker 1: They're a little too short to make my underdog parlay,
but I will be joining you plus the points. Marco DiAngelo,
you're gonna be at Chalk Eating Weasel this week. I
was hoping we all just went with more underdogs, because
that's just my favorite. Do you think this is a
good spot to take a team laying nine and a
half here against I wasn't even looking at this game.
Speaker 2: Why Liberty?
Speaker 3: Why Liberty?
Speaker 5: Well, we talk about buying low and selling high. But
speaking of buying Kelly, we got to do a little
promotion here before the Best Bet. We got a special
going this week involving me at Wager Talk. And if
you like the plays the way we're doing them here
on the show this year, and you want to get
on board for my premium plays for my clients, this
is the week to do it. You know we've been running.
We have forty nine dollars weekend Warrior package that's still available,
but Guys, you want to get a full seven days
for fifteen dollars more. Yeah, we're offering this week. I
do it every year. It's my birthday week and we
sell the week for my birthday price. That means you
can get the entire week, seven days of service for
just sixty four dollars this week. That's just fifteen dollars
more than the weekend Warrior. And guys, we are on
a roll last six days since last Thursday. We're taping
here on Wednesday. We're on an eleven and two run
for our clients. We've made them over twenty five hundred
dollars during that run, and we hit another five percent play.
I won't mention who it was because Kelly will have
Dan shut my mic off, but it was a forty
three to twenty winter last week, laying seven in the
big twelve. You can figure it out from there. We're
now thirty five and sixteen on those five percent plays.
You'll get one of those this week as well, and
they sell for thirty five dollars by themselves. So the
sixty four dollars package is.
Speaker 3: The way to go.
Speaker 5: Join me for Marco's Birthday bash this week. Now for
this best bet. We've got Liberty and we're gonna lay
the seven and a half here. And this is a
situation with Liberty going into the season. Every sharp I
know had Liberty running away with Conference USA this year,
but a four game losing streak to start the season
derailed them early on. They have now won three in
a row and they are playing at the level that
brought them all of the attention at the beginning of
the season that we thought they would be playing with.
The turnaround comes thanks to Liberty's defense, as they fixed
what was wrong, and that was the rush defense. In
their first five games, they were allowing an average of
one hundred and sixty four yards per game. Over the
last three games, they've allowed an average of just ninety
two yards per game. Here's the thing that bad start
at the beginning of the season. A lot of it
was out of conference. In conference, they're sitting at three
and one. There are only one game behind the two
conference leaders who are at four and oh. To me,
this is an absolute by low spot on Liberty at
seven and a half. My numbers say it should be
closer to ten. And too often what happens is people
don't adjust their numbers correctly. As they go through the season,
they look at a season average as far as numbers go,
and they draw their conclusion. You can't compare what somebody
did in September to what they did in October, especially
when it's out of conference schedules where you're playing those
games in September, and a lot of times you've got
teams that have inflated numbers because they play little sisters
of the poor, or you have teams that play worse
because they play above their heads in the month of September.
Liberties flying under the radar, playing their best ball. Right now,
I'm riding them this week. I've got Liberty rolling over
Missouri State.
Speaker 1: All right, I need the comments section to get ready.
I've got something really important. I need all of you
guys to do. Hit your caplocks button and type Happy birthday, Marco.
Speaker 2: Exclamation points, Happy early birthday, Marco DiAngelo.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Usually when we were back in studio, I would bring
you a cake, but it's kind of pointless now because
I don't need to eat the cake, so I'm not
bringing it.
Speaker 2: Even as a prop.
Speaker 1: We're gonna take a nice underdog, and this was a
team that it's on my list.
Speaker 2: I like them plus the points. I haven't gotten to
the window with the money line.
Speaker 1: I need a little bit more time before Wednesday morning
to decide if they can win this game outright.
Speaker 2: And that team, of course, is Yukon.
Speaker 1: You guys, remember we took Yukon just a few short
weeks ago, I think it was Week two, and they
blew a double digit lead to Syracuse. That was the
first pain of the underdog parlay this year. But Jim
Mora still very good against the ac see eight three
and one against the spread in his tenure there in Connecticut.
Speaker 2: Then if you remember we butt against.
Speaker 1: Yukon at Delaware and that was a double digitize that
I don't know if they can win the game out right,
and they did, so Yukon back in this spot where
you're catching points here at home. And oh, by the way,
this is a massive sandwich spot for Duke Duke last week.
Speaker 2: Yep, that's right. Clemson next week. Oh, just little old
Virginia on deck, that's right.
Speaker 1: And hey, I really like Yukon's quarterback twenty two touchdowns,
zero interceptions on the season against Dukes one hundred and
thirteen ranked passing defense something to keep in mind there again,
Jim Moore have been great against the spread, particularly as
a home underdog fourteen and seven. Last year, they won
three games in this spot, and just a few short
weeks ago there were a to go and beat Boston College.
Maybe they get their revenge on this Duke team last year.
If you guys remember Duke was a huge favorite headed
in to this game and hit that long field goal
to win twenty six twenty one.
Speaker 2: Do kind of ran the clock out after that? Man?
Did ucon fight this team tough?
Speaker 1: I expect more fight from them here on Saturday. Give
me the nine and a half here with the Huskies
and check out my three seam underdog parlay to see
if we end up betting them on the money line.
Speaker 2: Bring everybody back in.
Speaker 1: We always appreciate the comments from you guys. Love us,
you hate us, You love our bets, you hate our bets.
We don't care. Just get those keyboard fingers ready. Marco
and Varn had a lot of fun last week reading
the comments.
Speaker 4: I loved it this cover back. It just makes the
NFL show me and Marco got some revenge.
Speaker 1: Oh yes, if you guys do want to check out
that NFL Show. It will be up on the Wager
Talking YouTube channel right here, and of course the Mega Show.
Speaker 2: You never want to miss two straight hours of bet
on It