1 00:00:02,799 --> 00:00:06,559 Speaker 1: Coming off a best bet sweep in College Football Week ten, 2 00:00:06,719 --> 00:00:09,359 College Football Week eleven is upon us. We've got more 3 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:11,640 of those barking dogs. Of course we're gonna break down 4 00:00:11,759 --> 00:00:15,480 those top twenty five games. Get a little look from 5 00:00:15,519 --> 00:00:17,879 behind the computer screen in the steam room from VR 6 00:00:18,199 --> 00:00:21,519 Marco's Deli still rocking and rolling if you guys have 7 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:25,679 been falling along there. Another six to two in one week, 8 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,600 Man twenty seven to seventeen on the season, and of 9 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,039 course we're gonna try to sweep those best bets again. 10 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:32,880 Speaker 2: Up next on bet on It. 11 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: Kelly Stewart here VR in the middle, Marco sitting there 12 00:00:53,079 --> 00:00:56,359 in the third chair. Guys, this has been a really 13 00:00:56,359 --> 00:00:59,240 great week outside of my Kansas State Wildcats, so we're 14 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,439 gonna try to run it back here with the TV 15 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,680 Game's Marco. This is a game that I'm gonna be 16 00:01:04,719 --> 00:01:07,560 getting involved in. But I'm really curious to see your 17 00:01:07,719 --> 00:01:12,159 thoughts on this big twelve matchup twelve PM Eastern number 18 00:01:12,159 --> 00:01:14,640 eight BYU catching ten and a half. Now, I know 19 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,000 this is the one that's kind of went back and 20 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:20,200 forth at Texas Tech, number nine in the country, fifty 21 00:01:20,359 --> 00:01:20,719 three and a. 22 00:01:20,719 --> 00:01:23,599 Speaker 2: Half, and I lied, VR is gonna touch on this game. 23 00:01:24,159 --> 00:01:26,719 Speaker 1: I'm just so excited you guys, Like when you have 24 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,439 that great week, like I did opening line report with 25 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,879 Teddy on Monday morning, if you guys haven't seen that yet, 26 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:33,680 and it was so hard for me because I'm like, 27 00:01:33,719 --> 00:01:34,439 what do you mean, Teddy? 28 00:01:34,439 --> 00:01:35,799 Speaker 2: I had a four in one week? What do you mean? 29 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:36,159 Speaker 3: Teddy? 30 00:01:36,239 --> 00:01:38,359 Speaker 1: Like, when you have a good week, you're giddy, You're 31 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:39,959 excited for that next week. 32 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: Coming up, and right now, I'm excited. 33 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:43,599 Speaker 1: If you guys are excited, drop it in the comment section, 34 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,400 say something nice, maybe for a change, because we kicked 35 00:01:46,439 --> 00:01:48,400 ass last week, We're gonna do it again this week. 36 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,519 Speaker 2: VR tell me you like Texas Tech here? 37 00:01:52,439 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, and right now? 38 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:57,519 Speaker 4: In college football, bet on it twenty three and seven, 39 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,680 twenty three and seven overall and nine to one on 40 00:02:01,799 --> 00:02:05,439 these TV games. Now, I haven't released a premium play here, 41 00:02:05,719 --> 00:02:08,000 but I trust my power ratings and I know I've 42 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:13,080 gotten pushback in the comments section, but so far, I 43 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:14,840 think we're ahead again. 44 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 3: Not every time. 45 00:02:16,319 --> 00:02:18,879 Speaker 4: Is the team that I say is the better power 46 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:22,000 rated team, like they're going to lose that next week. Well, 47 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,439 what I'm trying to explain is they're overvalued they're higher 48 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:28,800 ranked than they should be, and as we've seen with 49 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:33,439 a lot of these teams, the Miami's, the Georgia Techs, 50 00:02:33,599 --> 00:02:37,280 they'll start dropping in the rankings like they should. BYU 51 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:42,000 another perfect example. Now, this isn't a bet on Texas Tech. 52 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,199 This is a fade of BYU, because I do think 53 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:49,400 Texas Tech is also a little bit higher than they 54 00:02:49,439 --> 00:02:54,759 should be on the rankings, but the difference is BYUS 55 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,520 just way out there. In fact, BYUS not a top 56 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,400 ten team, BYUS, not a top twenty team, I use, 57 00:03:00,439 --> 00:03:04,319 barely a top thirty team power rating wise, and. 58 00:03:04,439 --> 00:03:06,159 Speaker 3: That's what we're looking to fade here. Now. 59 00:03:06,199 --> 00:03:10,039 Speaker 4: The negative for Texas Tech is the recency bias. That's 60 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,360 what's held me off from firing. They're coming off back 61 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:18,319 to back wins where they scored forty plus and outperformed 62 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,919 the betting market. When a team does that, you expect 63 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:26,240 the correction. That's what's kept me off Texas Tech. Had 64 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,879 they not blown out Kansas State, had they not shut 65 00:03:29,879 --> 00:03:33,280 out Oklahoma State, I think we'd be laying seven and 66 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,159 a half eight here and then we'd be firing a 67 00:03:36,199 --> 00:03:37,199 four percent play. 68 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 3: But they got it up to double digits. 69 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,159 Speaker 4: That's keeping me off of getting it a window, and 70 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,400 I think it's enticing BYU Money, which I really do 71 00:03:46,439 --> 00:03:50,639 think is the wrong side. Listen, b why use continues 72 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:52,800 to not just win but outperform the betting market. And 73 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,240 I always talk about that, it's very efficient, it's going 74 00:03:56,319 --> 00:04:01,240 to correct. And when you're winning like BYU is and 75 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:05,240 not just covering games but winning outright as an underdog 76 00:04:05,879 --> 00:04:08,520 like that's really outperforming. 77 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,199 Speaker 3: It's very hard to sustain that. So for me, it's 78 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:13,759 a fade of BYU here. 79 00:04:14,199 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 4: I like the Texas Tech side again, more about BYU 80 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:24,360 real quickly strength of schedule, barely top fiftieth strength of schedule, 81 00:04:24,759 --> 00:04:27,639 and with this easy schedule like that, don't even have 82 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:31,040 a top twenty offense, barely have a top top point defense, 83 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:32,399 barely have a top twenty offense. 84 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:34,079 Speaker 3: Lay the points here. 85 00:04:34,079 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 4: With Texas Tech they should win this one by three 86 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:37,160 plus touchdowns. 87 00:04:37,199 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 3: I haven't gotten the window yet, but I do like 88 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:40,319 the Texas Tech side. 89 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:42,079 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm gonna get to the window on 90 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:43,040 the Texas Tech side. 91 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,199 Speaker 1: We'll kind of see. You mentioned that BYU Money. All 92 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,759 jokes aside. My dad when I talked to him this morning, 93 00:04:47,759 --> 00:04:48,879 he loves BYU. 94 00:04:49,079 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 2: You guys know what to do. 95 00:04:49,959 --> 00:04:53,439 Speaker 1: This reminds me of last week's matchup when I leaned 96 00:04:53,519 --> 00:04:56,800 Cincinnati early in the week and Marco said, not so fast, Kelly, 97 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,319 you need to be paying attention to this Utah team. 98 00:04:59,759 --> 00:05:03,120 I'm gonna say this, Yes, Texas Tech blew out Kansas 99 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,600 State last week, but yes, be wary that fourth quarter 100 00:05:06,959 --> 00:05:08,800 was a little bit more indicative of the defense being 101 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,279 a little bit tired in case State basically. 102 00:05:10,959 --> 00:05:12,279 Speaker 2: Puking all over themselves. 103 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:14,959 Speaker 1: Marco D'Angelo, You're gonna have to wait a few more 104 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,600 minutes because I'm gonna break down the three point thirty 105 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,079 PM Eastern game number three Texas A and M minus 106 00:05:20,079 --> 00:05:23,040 seven and a half at number nineteen Missouri forty eight 107 00:05:23,079 --> 00:05:26,839 and a half. Here is the total right now on 108 00:05:27,079 --> 00:05:31,439 the Odds logic screen. Kind of different thought process here, right. 109 00:05:31,519 --> 00:05:33,519 I know that I've been saying I've been wanting to 110 00:05:33,639 --> 00:05:37,399 fade uh Texas A and M several times this year, 111 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,319 and I haven't really found great spots. There was a 112 00:05:40,319 --> 00:05:43,439 couple of different opportunities where they did not cover. But 113 00:05:43,519 --> 00:05:46,120 Texas A and M is looking like a solid team 114 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:49,120 like they've been paying for for the last decade. 115 00:05:49,319 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 2: But this Missou team. 116 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 1: Not only as a home underdog seventeen and nine, they 117 00:05:55,720 --> 00:06:00,439 are on an epic run here twenty two nine against 118 00:06:00,439 --> 00:06:02,079 the spread coming off thereby. 119 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:03,399 Speaker 2: You guys remember they. 120 00:06:03,399 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 1: Ended up losing that game to Vanderbilt two weeks ago 121 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:11,759 despite having over one hundred yards as an edge. 122 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:13,959 Speaker 2: Right, So we want to kind of look for those teams. 123 00:06:14,079 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: Yes, the third ranked Aggies, everybody wants to talk about them, 124 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,120 but VR talks about power ratings. I'll get with him 125 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:22,560 here in a minute to see where he has the 126 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:26,680 Aggies rated, but they're definitely not a top five team. 127 00:06:27,079 --> 00:06:29,800 Missouri's run defense, I think is going to be able 128 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:31,519 to stifle that offense. 129 00:06:31,959 --> 00:06:33,199 Speaker 2: We're gonna kind of keep an eye on it. 130 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,759 Speaker 1: Colin Klein's Name's been thrown out a lot, not just 131 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:39,879 for Kansas State, but I've heard Oklahoma State, Arkansas for 132 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,879 head coaching jobs. Eventually, some of that chatter kind of 133 00:06:43,879 --> 00:06:45,439 gets in the way of some of these teams, so 134 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,639 keep in mind there. I haven't gotten to the window 135 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:52,480 with Miszoo money line just yet, but no, they're on 136 00:06:52,519 --> 00:06:56,519 my long list to possibly make my three team underdog 137 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:00,639 parlay VR really quick before we get too. Can you 138 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,879 tell me where you have E and M rated in 139 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:03,680 your power ratings. 140 00:07:03,759 --> 00:07:05,759 Speaker 4: A and M's not in my top ten yet, they 141 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,240 have not cracked the top ten. I'm telling you now, 142 00:07:08,439 --> 00:07:12,000 I would make Penn State favor over Texas on a 143 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,759 neutral field, I really would. I would make Michigan A 144 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,240 pick them against them. I would make USC A pick 145 00:07:17,279 --> 00:07:20,160 them against them, like that's that's where they are, and 146 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,279 that's that's moving them up as well. I actually have 147 00:07:23,399 --> 00:07:26,879 Missouri in my top twenty, so is not all that 148 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,240 far behind Texas A and M. I'm tempted to get 149 00:07:30,279 --> 00:07:32,680 to the window with Missouri too. It's only a matter 150 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,000 of time before Texa. The wheels fall off for Texas 151 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,439 A and M. They're not finishing the season undefeated. If 152 00:07:37,439 --> 00:07:38,759 they do, they're just gonna get blown out in the 153 00:07:38,759 --> 00:07:39,680 playoffs anyway. 154 00:07:39,519 --> 00:07:41,439 Speaker 3: By real there you go. 155 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: Some of those early playoff lines are out, and some 156 00:07:43,879 --> 00:07:45,560 of them are a little more shocking. We'll get to 157 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:49,040 one of those during the Barking Dog segment. Marco is 158 00:07:49,079 --> 00:07:53,160 this dog barking long list? I looked to try to 159 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:57,040 make a case for LSU underanked catching double digits at 160 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:58,519 number for Alabama. 161 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 2: The total is fifty and a half. 162 00:08:00,839 --> 00:08:05,399 Speaker 1: We all know that little situation teams firing their head coach. 163 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:06,519 Speaker 2: Are they on your radar? 164 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 3: Oh, Kelly? 165 00:08:08,199 --> 00:08:10,839 Speaker 5: Normally, that's exactly where I would start in a game 166 00:08:10,959 --> 00:08:13,480 like this is looking at the team that fired the coach, 167 00:08:13,519 --> 00:08:16,839 and especially they had two weeks to prepare for this game. 168 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:21,199 The new interim coach takes over. But in this instance, 169 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,279 there's two reasons why I'm not gonna do it. All right, 170 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,160 LSU is sitting at five and three. Okay, they came 171 00:08:28,199 --> 00:08:30,360 into this season, and I'll be honest, I was high 172 00:08:30,439 --> 00:08:32,279 on them, and I did have them in that first 173 00:08:32,639 --> 00:08:36,399 game against Clemson. We had a large play on them. 174 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,960 We liked them a lot. I thought they were in 175 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:44,360 a legitimate national championship contender. The quarterback is underperformed, the 176 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,799 offense in general was underperformed all year, and in my opinion, 177 00:08:49,279 --> 00:08:53,200 they waited too long to make this change. In granted, 178 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,440 when you have a coach like Brian Kelly, you're not 179 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,759 going to fire him immediately, but you saw the signs 180 00:08:58,759 --> 00:09:01,679 of this all season, and then after the Texas A 181 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:05,679 and M game when they just absolutely had a pathetic 182 00:09:05,799 --> 00:09:08,679 second half. They had the lead at half and they 183 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,159 came out and got the doors blown off them. They 184 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,120 had no choice. It's too late in the season. How 185 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,519 does this team get excited? Yeah, they're five and three, 186 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,759 they can still go to a bowl game. What bowl 187 00:09:18,759 --> 00:09:20,679 game are they going to go to? How do you 188 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,799 sell that to a team that really thought they would 189 00:09:23,799 --> 00:09:26,440 be playing in the playoffs and have a chance for 190 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:30,559 the national championship. That's why I'm not buying the coaching 191 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,799 angle jumping on the team there. The other reason is 192 00:09:34,159 --> 00:09:37,480 Alabama had a bye week as well, and going into 193 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,279 the bye week they had a scare. They played South 194 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,399 Carolina and I got a lot of grief when I 195 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,799 gave out South Carolina that week is a play on 196 00:09:46,919 --> 00:09:49,679 shows a lot of pushback because how could you go 197 00:09:49,759 --> 00:09:53,360 against Alabama? And it was the spot. It was a 198 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,799 horrible spot for Alabama coming off a big game the 199 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,799 week before then going into their bye week and have 200 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,320 LSU coming out of the by they were gonna look 201 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:07,120 past South Carolina. South Carolina had been losing and what happened. 202 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,840 South Carolina took them to the fourth quarter. It was late, 203 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,840 The game was tied before Alabama got the last touchdown 204 00:10:14,919 --> 00:10:17,519 and won by seven. Late in the fourth quarter. They're 205 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,360 gonna be focused for this game. That's why I'm not 206 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:24,360 stepping in front of them. I'm gonna go ahead take Alabama. 207 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:28,720 I'm gonna lay the number here. Yes, LSU they've lived 208 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,360 on their defense all year, but guys, let's be honest, 209 00:10:32,399 --> 00:10:36,279 this defense has been struggling lately. Last two games. Uh, 210 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:40,559 they gave up thirty one and forty nine points their 211 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,519 rush defense. And that's important when a team's got a 212 00:10:44,639 --> 00:10:47,799 lead and you know lay in points, you want that 213 00:10:47,919 --> 00:10:49,799 team that's got the lead to be able to run 214 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,960 the ball and be successful. Well, the last four games, 215 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:56,320 the LSU rush defense has given up one sixty six, 216 00:10:56,639 --> 00:11:00,720 one ninety three, two thirty nine, and two twenty. They're 217 00:11:00,759 --> 00:11:04,279 getting worse. Let's go ahead lay it with Alabama here. 218 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:06,919 Speaker 2: Oh that was kind of a shocker. 219 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: I totally expected that situational spot from Marco. 220 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 2: Very good analysis. 221 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 3: VR. 222 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 2: Let's get into your steam room, guys. If you're new here. 223 00:11:15,799 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 1: You can catch VR steam Room on Sundays before NFL, 224 00:11:20,039 --> 00:11:22,279 but you can catch a mini version of it on 225 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,360 Saturdays for College Football with me on Wager Talks Last Call, 226 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,200 where we go through a ton of college football info 227 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,399 leading up until kickoff. 228 00:11:30,399 --> 00:11:33,159 Speaker 2: I hope you guys have your Odds logic screens. 229 00:11:32,799 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 1: Open, because VR is gonna run through this one rapid fire. 230 00:11:37,279 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 4: Yeap, just gonna run down some of the moves that 231 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:43,879 already i've seen confirmation. What I mean is multiple groups 232 00:11:43,919 --> 00:11:49,440 on the same side without resistance. That's the key, especially 233 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:53,039 in college football where you don't really have the look 234 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,960 aheads that you do in the NFL. So let's start 235 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,000 off with the Saturday action. Will pass on the weekday action. 236 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:04,360 Drop down the Army against Temple, because anytime that's gotten 237 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,440 to bet up to seven above seven, you've seen some 238 00:12:08,519 --> 00:12:11,960 TakeBack on the Temple side. That's one of those where 239 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,559 it looks like the real moves on the Temple just 240 00:12:14,639 --> 00:12:17,360 hoping it gets bet up, that the Army side gets 241 00:12:17,399 --> 00:12:21,799 bet up. Dropped down to Stanford against North Carolina. On 242 00:12:21,879 --> 00:12:25,120 the opener, got hit at plus nine plus eight and 243 00:12:25,159 --> 00:12:28,320 a half plus eight all the way down to where 244 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,000 it sits now at about a touchdown. So a lot 245 00:12:31,039 --> 00:12:37,600 of love on Stanford against North Carolina. Indiana over Penn State. 246 00:12:37,639 --> 00:12:40,159 This is one of the more one sided public games 247 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:42,679 as well. Indiana is one of those teams that is 248 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:47,240 getting love every week at the window up over to touchdown. 249 00:12:47,279 --> 00:12:49,600 Now that was sharp money. But rest the short it's 250 00:12:49,639 --> 00:12:51,279 the public that's pushing it up. 251 00:12:51,519 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 3: Other team. 252 00:12:52,159 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 4: I'm bringing up Ohio State. They're just getting bet blindly 253 00:12:55,639 --> 00:12:58,720 every single week. And usually what happens with the Benningston 254 00:12:58,759 --> 00:13:01,480 against when they see that is they'll bet those teams 255 00:13:01,519 --> 00:13:05,080 as well and then middle it. Because betton Ohio State 256 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:06,840 at minus twenty eight and a half when you know 257 00:13:06,879 --> 00:13:09,159 it's going to get above thirty because by Saturday, once 258 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,519 the betting public starts getting involved in Ohio State, this 259 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,799 will get into the thirties thirty one possibly or so. 260 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 3: That's when you'll see some take back on the underdog. 261 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 4: So be careful with the top one, two, and three 262 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,720 teams in the rankings because they're well aware that those 263 00:13:24,759 --> 00:13:26,480 are the teams that are going to track the most 264 00:13:26,519 --> 00:13:32,919 public money. Drop down to Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan that 265 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,799 got hit on the money line also won one and 266 00:13:35,799 --> 00:13:39,039 a half on the Eastern Michigan side. And what else 267 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:40,320 was sticking out real fast? 268 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 3: Sorry? Oh where was that? 269 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 4: Yes, Arkansas State against Southern miss Because I saw moneyline action, 270 00:13:48,639 --> 00:13:50,440 that's what I wanted to pass along when you see 271 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:54,480 him sprinkling at the same time. So taking the Arkansas 272 00:13:54,519 --> 00:13:58,120 State plus the points and on the money line home 273 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,639 dog there against Southern miss I like that side as well, 274 00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:03,879 and we'll end it with Oregon State, one of the 275 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:08,840 late games on the board that got action at the opener. 276 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:13,120 Haven't even seen resistance up over twenty, so when it 277 00:14:13,159 --> 00:14:15,840 got bet below twenty, usually when it gets up over twenty, you'll. 278 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 3: See some TakeBack. 279 00:14:16,639 --> 00:14:21,399 Speaker 4: Has not happened yet, so legit move on Oregon State tomorrow. 280 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,960 Pay attention to your ons logic screen or at the 281 00:14:24,039 --> 00:14:26,519 very least the free on screen at wager talk. The 282 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,919 totals will get hit throughout the day. You'll be able 283 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,000 to confirm some, so you should already go in with 284 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,600 the totals you like under or over you start seeing 285 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:38,519 the market go in that direction, get the best of 286 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,399 the number before it's gone. So that's gonna do it 287 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,919 for this week's college football steam, hope you do some damage. 288 00:14:45,279 --> 00:14:45,559 Speaker 3: All right. 289 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 1: We're gonna get right into those barking dogs. And this 290 00:14:48,039 --> 00:14:50,159 is one that was on my radar as well. 291 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 2: Marco Auburn. 292 00:14:52,639 --> 00:14:56,519 Speaker 1: Why is another team that fired their coach last week 293 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:58,840 on your radar with a shot to win. 294 00:14:58,759 --> 00:15:01,879 Speaker 5: Out right, all right to take us sounding like I'm 295 00:15:01,919 --> 00:15:04,759 bipoler now, I am going to take the team that 296 00:15:04,919 --> 00:15:06,600 fired the coach, because. 297 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,919 Speaker 2: No, are you off your meds again again? 298 00:15:09,399 --> 00:15:09,639 Speaker 3: Yeah? 299 00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 2: Last week asked that. 300 00:15:13,759 --> 00:15:16,639 Speaker 5: Well they did, and it was my picks in the NFL. 301 00:15:16,759 --> 00:15:18,960 They were, you know, very concerned that I was, you know, 302 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:20,919 off my meds. Well, I can tell you what not 303 00:15:21,039 --> 00:15:25,519 that I actually need the meds. But the one pill 304 00:15:25,559 --> 00:15:27,879 that I definitely don't need, I don't need the little 305 00:15:27,879 --> 00:15:32,200 blue pill this week after Carolina come home out right 306 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:35,799 last week. So uh, definitely there, We're we're okay. So 307 00:15:35,879 --> 00:15:38,320 thanks for everybody worried about the meds there. But with 308 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,679 this one, let's go ahead. We are going to look 309 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:44,000 to the firing of the head coach because this will 310 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,720 be a spark. Uh, we have that in play to 311 00:15:46,759 --> 00:15:49,480 start with. You know, you freeze. You know, this has 312 00:15:49,519 --> 00:15:52,600 been a disappointing year. This team, uh has lost all 313 00:15:52,639 --> 00:15:55,799 these games in a row. They have been in games, 314 00:15:56,279 --> 00:15:59,440 uh and found ways to lose them. But this is 315 00:15:59,639 --> 00:16:02,279 where I jump in. You get that change, you get 316 00:16:02,279 --> 00:16:05,759 that jold of adrenaline, spark, whatever you want to call it, 317 00:16:05,799 --> 00:16:09,720 because the players are gonna play hard this week because 318 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,360 they want to prove it wasn't them, it was the coach, 319 00:16:12,399 --> 00:16:14,919 it wasn't them. We're gonna get that out of Auburn 320 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,360 this week. But we have a second side to the 321 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:22,080 story here, Kelly, the Vanderbilt side. Has there ever been 322 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,879 a better classic spot to say, lose the same game twice? 323 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,200 Vanderbilt was getting their doors blown off on Saturday at Texas. 324 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,480 What a doser reality for them. But then all of 325 00:16:34,519 --> 00:16:36,600 a sudden, and I don't you know, and I watched it, 326 00:16:36,639 --> 00:16:39,279 and I still don't believe what I saw because I 327 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:44,360 was holding a Texas minus three ticket and got the push. 328 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:49,320 The situation with Vanderbilt coming all the way back converting 329 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:52,039 two two point conversions into one. I still say he 330 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,039 didn't break the plane. I don't know what they were 331 00:16:54,039 --> 00:16:57,679 looking at, but they ended up with a push. You 332 00:16:57,759 --> 00:17:00,200 come all the way back like that and almost in 333 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,840 the game, and now you know all of the hype 334 00:17:03,919 --> 00:17:06,920 that you had in the Cinderella season. That was the 335 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,240 dream crusher game for me, losing that one for Tech 336 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,720 to Texas for Vanderbilt. I always say, Also, when you 337 00:17:13,839 --> 00:17:16,400 got a dog that plays their guts, out and comes 338 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,680 up short, and they go from a dog to the 339 00:17:18,839 --> 00:17:22,599 favorite the next week. I want no part of the favorite. 340 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,319 That all of that lines me up on Auburn here, 341 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,279 and then you've got a ranked team versus an unranked 342 00:17:28,319 --> 00:17:32,440 team playing at home in lines less than a touchdown. 343 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,680 All of your alarm should be going off in your house. 344 00:17:35,759 --> 00:17:38,720 That's something's wrong there. They're begging you to take that 345 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:43,279 home favorite that's ranked under the touchdown. I ain't buying it. 346 00:17:43,319 --> 00:17:46,640 I'm taking Auburn plus the points. Let's call it Alburn 347 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,480 twenty three to twenty one. Little upset for the new coach. 348 00:17:50,839 --> 00:17:52,799 Speaker 1: All right, this is the name of the game here 349 00:17:52,799 --> 00:17:56,839 in Barking Dogs, where we're rooting for underdogs to win 350 00:17:57,079 --> 00:18:00,359 the game out right. And you guys both won yours 351 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,799 last week. I did not, but that's another story for 352 00:18:03,839 --> 00:18:07,240 another time. VR, you have a team that is also 353 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,359 on my long list here on this beautiful Wednesday morning, 354 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:12,640 tell me why. 355 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 2: You think wake Forest has a shot to win this game? 356 00:18:15,559 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, put it on the short list. Seven and three 357 00:18:17,599 --> 00:18:19,920 on the dogs. Five of those came in on the. 358 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:23,599 Speaker 4: Money line, including Penn State UCLA over Penn State. 359 00:18:23,599 --> 00:18:25,519 Speaker 3: If you remember back in the day. Now. 360 00:18:25,799 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 4: With that said, I know it's boring, but this is 361 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,319 what's been making me money over and over and over again. 362 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:33,519 I try to keep it simple. I don't try to 363 00:18:33,519 --> 00:18:35,720 make it harder than it needs to be. Don't need 364 00:18:35,759 --> 00:18:37,559 to be this mornest guy in the room. I have 365 00:18:37,599 --> 00:18:40,720 a really, really, really good set of power ratings that 366 00:18:40,799 --> 00:18:43,599 I trust from one gentleman, and it's been making me 367 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,759 college football money year in and year out and put 368 00:18:46,799 --> 00:18:48,480 me at number one, up over one hundred and thirty 369 00:18:48,559 --> 00:18:51,039 units so far in twenty twenty five. And here's what 370 00:18:51,079 --> 00:18:55,039 they tell me about this Virginia team. They're as phony, 371 00:18:55,319 --> 00:18:59,000 as phony, as phony as you can get. When I 372 00:18:59,039 --> 00:19:02,480 look at the rankings and I saw that Virginia's ranked fourteenth, 373 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,279 let me tell you where they're power rated. They're not 374 00:19:05,319 --> 00:19:08,240 in the top ten, that's for sure. Fortunately they're not, 375 00:19:08,279 --> 00:19:10,839 thank god, they're not in the ranking top ten. They're 376 00:19:10,839 --> 00:19:13,240 not in the top fifteen. They're not in the top twenty, 377 00:19:13,519 --> 00:19:16,160 not in the top twenty five, not in the top thirty, 378 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,000 not in the top thirty five, not in the top forty, 379 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:20,599 not in the top forty. 380 00:19:20,279 --> 00:19:21,839 Speaker 3: Five, not in the top fifty. 381 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 4: They just cracked the top fifty five. That's where Virginia 382 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,599 sits power rating wise. There are fifty teams in college 383 00:19:28,599 --> 00:19:33,079 football that would be favored over Virginia on a neutral field. 384 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,000 That's the truth. That doesn't mean the books would make 385 00:19:36,039 --> 00:19:39,160 those fifty teams favored, because I'll keep repeating it. The 386 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:43,119 book's job is to manage risk so that they profit. 387 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:47,279 It's not to predict outcomes of sporting events. That's not 388 00:19:47,319 --> 00:19:53,599 what they do. Okay, Virginia has the seventieth toughest strength 389 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:58,119 of schedule, and yet with that seventieth toughest strength of schedule, 390 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,880 they're barely a top the offense. They're barely a top 391 00:20:03,079 --> 00:20:08,039 seventy defense. They just cracked the top seventy. And they've 392 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,440 just happened to get lucky with a nice easy schedule. 393 00:20:11,759 --> 00:20:16,000 They've had two games that were difficult for them, Florida 394 00:20:16,039 --> 00:20:19,640 State and Louisville, where they were underdogs. Every other game 395 00:20:19,759 --> 00:20:21,680 they were favored. They did what they're supposed to do. 396 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,480 They won the game when they were a dog first 397 00:20:24,519 --> 00:20:26,599 game of the season or second game of the season. 398 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:27,799 Speaker 3: NC State they lost. 399 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,400 Speaker 4: They won two games that were hard for them where 400 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:35,160 they were dogs, Louisville and Florida State. If you click 401 00:20:35,279 --> 00:20:39,119 that box score, what you'll see that both Louisville and 402 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:44,559 Florida State dominated Virginia destroyed them. If you just looked 403 00:20:44,559 --> 00:20:47,799 at the box score, you would think Virginia got annihilated. 404 00:20:48,279 --> 00:20:51,039 But then you'll find out one of those two teams 405 00:20:51,079 --> 00:20:55,240 fumbled the ball six times and had two interceptions. The 406 00:20:55,279 --> 00:20:59,119 other team fumbled the ball four times and had two interceptions. 407 00:20:59,519 --> 00:21:03,279 They got lucky that those opponents played their absolute worst 408 00:21:03,559 --> 00:21:06,160 brain the football. And don't go telling me that the 409 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:10,480 defense created those turnovers, because we're talking about the seventieth 410 00:21:10,559 --> 00:21:14,440 best defense efficient wise in college football. So they're not 411 00:21:14,559 --> 00:21:18,240 creating nothing, is what they're doing. Give me wake Forest 412 00:21:18,279 --> 00:21:20,680 plus the points. I don't even like wake Farest they're 413 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:26,119 a shit team too, but they're catching points from a 414 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:31,000 real over value team. Fade Virginia, sprinkle the money line. 415 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,920 Wake Forest gets the money. What do they plus six 416 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,720 and a half? Buy it up to seven. Don't lay 417 00:21:37,759 --> 00:21:39,480 more than one twenty four. If you got to lay 418 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,720 more than one twenty four and a half point, don't 419 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,640 do it. Just take the six and a half. We're 420 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,640 not even gonna need that. But you know we're in 421 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,079 the business of place in good bet So if you 422 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:48,920 could buy the half point, you do it up to 423 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,640 one twenty four only to get the seven. 424 00:21:51,079 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not gonna lie. Wake Forest is a shit 425 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:53,960 team and that isn't much. 426 00:21:55,799 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 5: I know. 427 00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,519 Speaker 1: Listen, I don't mind betting mediocre teams, but betting on 428 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:05,599 bad teams is so incredibly frustrating. And we talk about 429 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,160 betting on numbers, not teams, and I understand that that 430 00:22:09,319 --> 00:22:12,200 is a lot of what we do. And you know, 431 00:22:12,319 --> 00:22:14,759 catching six six and a half seven with these bad 432 00:22:14,799 --> 00:22:18,480 teams is fine, but wanting them to win outright is 433 00:22:19,079 --> 00:22:22,200 a lot more difficult, right it is. Get that back 434 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,319 door cover is not what I want. I want to 435 00:22:24,319 --> 00:22:27,759 see a team give me four quarters of effort, and 436 00:22:27,799 --> 00:22:29,759 you think we're gonna get that from wake Forest. 437 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:30,519 Speaker 2: Even though they're a shit team. 438 00:22:30,799 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, No, you're right. 439 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 4: And honestly, I shouldn't even think that, oh, they can't 440 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,799 win because I'm placing it because I think that I 441 00:22:38,839 --> 00:22:41,559 had that mistake last week in in the NFL where 442 00:22:41,599 --> 00:22:44,000 because I like Minnesota and we had that same discussion 443 00:22:44,039 --> 00:22:45,799 and you're like, you think they could win the game, 444 00:22:46,039 --> 00:22:47,960 and I'm like, I don't think so you know what 445 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,160 I mean, They did exactly what exactly, so you shouldn't 446 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,519 overthink it. If you like the underdog and your your 447 00:22:54,559 --> 00:22:56,839 work's pointing you to the underdog, then they probably have 448 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,319 a shot unless they're like a thirty point dog, and 449 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:00,039 you should. 450 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 2: Now, well, you did call UCLA over Penn State, So 451 00:23:02,839 --> 00:23:03,720 that's the work. 452 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 3: This is the. 453 00:23:05,319 --> 00:23:08,880 Speaker 1: Biggest underdog to ever cash in the marking dogs segment. 454 00:23:09,079 --> 00:23:11,839 All right, I'm gonna take Iowa plus six and a half. 455 00:23:11,839 --> 00:23:16,440 We're all going with the undertouchdown underdogs here, and bottom line, 456 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,440 I'm taking Iowa the better defense here. Eight and one 457 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,640 against the spread is a single digit Big Ten home 458 00:23:23,799 --> 00:23:27,599 underdog in their last nine tries, six and one against 459 00:23:27,599 --> 00:23:31,400 the spread this year. Now, I understand Oregon had a 460 00:23:31,519 --> 00:23:35,599 nice road win already this year in the Big Ten 461 00:23:35,799 --> 00:23:40,079 at Penn State there in overtime, but they also lost 462 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:44,240 Indiana right afterwards at home by double digits. That three 463 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,839 point loss to Iowa State is far in the rear 464 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,240 view mirror for the Hawkeys, and if you remember, they 465 00:23:50,279 --> 00:23:53,920 took that same Indiana team to the wire and had 466 00:23:54,039 --> 00:23:58,000 multiple shots to win it. Grenawski sixty eight percent on 467 00:23:58,039 --> 00:24:01,640 the season and has rushed for over two hundred and 468 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:06,960 twenty five yards with eight touchdowns. This kid is a 469 00:24:07,039 --> 00:24:10,799 great quarterback and normally we see these guys that stand 470 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,519 in the pocket too long for Iowa. But with Brian 471 00:24:13,599 --> 00:24:18,240 Farrence gone, this Iowa offense is different and I think 472 00:24:18,279 --> 00:24:21,400 that they have an opportunity to not only cover this game, 473 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:26,599 but win it there in Kinnick, Marco DiAngelo, the Deli, 474 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,400 as I mentioned to start the show, has just been 475 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:33,240 rocking and rolling all season long. Guys, if you like 476 00:24:33,279 --> 00:24:35,079 the Deli, you can watch it here on the college 477 00:24:35,079 --> 00:24:37,359 football edition of Bettan, on the NFL edition of Beta, 478 00:24:37,559 --> 00:24:41,720 or on Fridays, we put out an entire Deli segment 479 00:24:41,759 --> 00:24:44,160 standalone here on the wager Talk YouTube channel. 480 00:24:44,599 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 2: Last week was four and one, twenty seven and seventeen 481 00:24:48,039 --> 00:24:48,720 on the season. 482 00:24:49,319 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: Marco, we got a little sandwich spot here for the 483 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:53,799 Florida Gators. 484 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:58,039 Speaker 5: Yeah, Kelly, the Deli has been great this season, six 485 00:24:58,279 --> 00:25:01,720 to two and one, winning weeks wise for it in 486 00:25:02,279 --> 00:25:05,839 the NFL play on the show eight and won this year, 487 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,319 So be sure to check out the Deli. It'll be 488 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,440 out on Thursday and for the sandwich game this week. 489 00:25:13,519 --> 00:25:16,920 Kelly Man, we've had a lot of games involving fired 490 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,200 coaches this week and this is going to be another one. 491 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,039 And last week when we talked about Florida, we didn't 492 00:25:23,079 --> 00:25:25,880 know how Florida was going to react to the coach 493 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,240 being fired, because it's probably the only time that I 494 00:25:29,279 --> 00:25:32,559 can remember a coach being fired after winning a football game. 495 00:25:32,839 --> 00:25:36,480 But that's what happened to Billy Napier. They fired him. 496 00:25:36,559 --> 00:25:38,640 They had their bye week, and they had a big 497 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,559 game coming against Georgia. I didn't know how that team 498 00:25:41,599 --> 00:25:45,160 would respond. Well, they did respond, and they played their 499 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,599 guts out and they took Georgia to the limit, losing 500 00:25:48,799 --> 00:25:51,920 twenty four to twenty. Now, for betters in that game, 501 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:57,319 if you had Georgia or you had the over, I 502 00:25:57,319 --> 00:26:00,119 feel for you, because if you didn't see it, they 503 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,519 took the guy, broke around in the end and went 504 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,680 down at the one yard line at the end of 505 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,359 the game with a minute to play to run out 506 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,920 the clock, they would have walked in for the touchdown 507 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,599 for the cover or walked in for sending the game 508 00:26:14,759 --> 00:26:18,440 over as well. So that was a crazy ending last week. 509 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,599 But here's the reality. Florida did show up the play, 510 00:26:22,079 --> 00:26:24,079 but now they're at two and five, and they had 511 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:28,720 that initial game after firing the coach. They're in a 512 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:33,559 mammoth sandwich spot here coming off that game. I can't 513 00:26:33,759 --> 00:26:37,720 look to play them this week because at two and five, 514 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,920 what's to get excited about for this team. The only 515 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,160 time they're gonna get excited is gonna be playing a 516 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,440 game like they did last week against the big name 517 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,839 Georgia where they could play spoiler, or when they play 518 00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:54,000 the rivalry game at the end of the season against 519 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,039 Florida State. I think they are a mellet in the 520 00:26:57,079 --> 00:26:59,319 rest of the way. They're not going to be excited 521 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,680 going to play Kentucky in this game. And even though 522 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,039 Florida is having a horrible season, for a team like 523 00:27:06,319 --> 00:27:10,519 Kentucky to beat that name Florida, that's a big deal 524 00:27:10,559 --> 00:27:14,920 for them, and Kentucky got they broke their four game 525 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,000 losing streak last week. They won as a twelve point 526 00:27:18,079 --> 00:27:21,839 dog at Auburn the game that got you freeze fired, 527 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,200 so as a home dog they're live. Explain to me 528 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,640 how Florida is favored in this game. They're favored by 529 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,440 their name, not by the way they're playing. I got 530 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:33,880 to take Kentucky in this one. I am gonna grab 531 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,960 the points, not gonna need them. I see Kentucky winning 532 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,960 this one. Twenty four to twenty sandwich game of the week. 533 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,440 Let's take the Kentucky Wildcats. 534 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,519 Speaker 1: Marco, I just realized my best bet is also a 535 00:27:46,559 --> 00:27:48,599 sandwich spawn. I had to look up something really quick, 536 00:27:48,599 --> 00:27:51,880 and I thought, oh, let's see if Marco likes that one. 537 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,799 Speaker 2: But we're gonna get into these so called best bets 538 00:27:54,799 --> 00:27:55,839 that we swapped last week. 539 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:59,799 Speaker 1: So easily Nebraska, dammit had opportunities to win that game. 540 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,079 Speaker 2: That's okay. They got the cover and that's what matters. 541 00:28:03,559 --> 00:28:05,039 They are a team that. 542 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 1: You think is going to get the cover this week 543 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,240 is the Kansas Jayhawks. 544 00:28:11,319 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 3: Rock Chalk Jayhawks on the road. Baby yeah yeah. 545 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,279 Speaker 4: Now, all the talk is you're gonna start hearing about 546 00:28:17,279 --> 00:28:20,759 the ball eligibility, ball eligibility, ballligibility, And a narrative about 547 00:28:20,759 --> 00:28:24,440 this around this game is Arizona needs this win loligibility 548 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,799 because it doesn't get much easier than that. Their opponents 549 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,160 remaining are have a combined twenty three and thirteen record, 550 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,720 so they're going to be underdogs in other words, after 551 00:28:34,759 --> 00:28:37,839 this game. So this is a big game and you're 552 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,559 being asked to pay a premium because of that. The 553 00:28:40,559 --> 00:28:42,799 bottom line is this, this is as close to a 554 00:28:42,839 --> 00:28:47,240 quinklip as you're gonna get, and Arizona's getting just way 555 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:53,119 too much respect for home field advantage. Granted, they're four 556 00:28:53,119 --> 00:28:54,759 and one at home this year. Yeah, four and one 557 00:28:54,799 --> 00:28:56,400 at home, one and two on the road, and I've 558 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,279 talked about it throughout this season. That to me is 559 00:28:59,319 --> 00:29:03,200 a strong home field advantage currently, because again we take 560 00:29:03,279 --> 00:29:05,519 an average when we try to determine what a team's 561 00:29:05,519 --> 00:29:07,559 home field advantage is, and you look over the last 562 00:29:07,599 --> 00:29:09,559 five years, over the last ten years, what's the point 563 00:29:09,559 --> 00:29:13,160 differential at home? You create a home point advantage, But 564 00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,200 year by year teams differ. So I like to look 565 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,400 at recent is it really a home field advantage in 566 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,160 twenty twenty five, And obviously it is. They played a 567 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,319 lot better at home than they have on the road. 568 00:29:24,559 --> 00:29:27,359 The problem is the price is just too high. When 569 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,000 I look at my power ratings, these teams are very 570 00:29:31,079 --> 00:29:35,759 comparable to each other. I have Arizona as the forty 571 00:29:35,839 --> 00:29:39,319 fourth power rated team in the country, and I have 572 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,000 Kansas as the forty sixth power rated team in the country. 573 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:48,880 Kansas had a tougher strength of schedule. Offense almost identical 574 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:53,640 efficient wise defense give the edge to Arizona, but that's 575 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:57,119 offset by the strength of schedule that Kansas had the 576 00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,440 tougher strength of schedule. This is why I can continue 577 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,880 to come to the conclusion that this game is a 578 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:08,440 coin flip out of home factor in home field advantage 579 00:30:08,519 --> 00:30:12,920 and the most I'm going to give Arizona for home 580 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:14,440 field advantage. 581 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:19,039 Speaker 3: Two two points two point two points, maybe not two 582 00:30:19,039 --> 00:30:20,960 and a half, maybe two and a half at the most. 583 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:21,599 At the most. 584 00:30:22,039 --> 00:30:25,759 Speaker 4: Again, getting more than a field goal puts me on 585 00:30:25,799 --> 00:30:29,680 the Kansas side. I like both these teams also, especially 586 00:30:29,799 --> 00:30:34,359 Kansas ending that losing spreak. They lost to Kansas State, 587 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,799 they lost to Texas Tech, beat up on Oklahoma State, 588 00:30:37,839 --> 00:30:40,599 got that confidence and heading in Arizona, I think they 589 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:42,799 keep it close till the very end with a chance 590 00:30:42,839 --> 00:30:45,519 to win it. Just don't turn the ball over. You'll 591 00:30:45,559 --> 00:30:47,680 get me a best bet winner. I released them the 592 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,559 subscribers as a four percent, so got to the window 593 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,640 already with them. We took plus five. They're good down 594 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,839 the plus four, but I wouldn't wait too long. 595 00:30:55,759 --> 00:30:57,599 Speaker 2: Because it's a sharp side, all right. 596 00:30:57,599 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 1: If you are at four four and half a little 597 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,240 bit on the odds logic screen. 598 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 2: How much percentage would you put on the money line? 599 00:31:05,279 --> 00:31:09,799 Would you do? Ninety five to five? Ninety ten, ninety ten? 600 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:10,839 Speaker 5: Yeah? 601 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:12,559 Speaker 2: Okay, cool? I do like Kansas. 602 00:31:12,599 --> 00:31:14,599 Speaker 1: They're a little too short to make my underdog parlay, 603 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,279 but I will be joining you plus the points. Marco DiAngelo, 604 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,319 you're gonna be at Chalk Eating Weasel this week. I 605 00:31:21,319 --> 00:31:23,599 was hoping we all just went with more underdogs, because 606 00:31:23,599 --> 00:31:26,319 that's just my favorite. Do you think this is a 607 00:31:26,319 --> 00:31:29,720 good spot to take a team laying nine and a 608 00:31:29,799 --> 00:31:33,240 half here against I wasn't even looking at this game. 609 00:31:33,279 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 2: Why Liberty? 610 00:31:35,039 --> 00:31:35,720 Speaker 3: Why Liberty? 611 00:31:35,759 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 5: Well, we talk about buying low and selling high. But 612 00:31:38,519 --> 00:31:40,759 speaking of buying Kelly, we got to do a little 613 00:31:40,759 --> 00:31:44,480 promotion here before the Best Bet. We got a special 614 00:31:44,559 --> 00:31:48,519 going this week involving me at Wager Talk. And if 615 00:31:48,559 --> 00:31:51,319 you like the plays the way we're doing them here 616 00:31:51,519 --> 00:31:53,680 on the show this year, and you want to get 617 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,680 on board for my premium plays for my clients, this 618 00:31:57,759 --> 00:32:00,000 is the week to do it. You know we've been running. 619 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,880 We have forty nine dollars weekend Warrior package that's still available, 620 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,400 but Guys, you want to get a full seven days 621 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:10,839 for fifteen dollars more. Yeah, we're offering this week. I 622 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,160 do it every year. It's my birthday week and we 623 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:18,400 sell the week for my birthday price. That means you 624 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,440 can get the entire week, seven days of service for 625 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,720 just sixty four dollars this week. That's just fifteen dollars 626 00:32:26,759 --> 00:32:29,279 more than the weekend Warrior. And guys, we are on 627 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,480 a roll last six days since last Thursday. We're taping 628 00:32:33,519 --> 00:32:36,519 here on Wednesday. We're on an eleven and two run 629 00:32:36,599 --> 00:32:39,359 for our clients. We've made them over twenty five hundred 630 00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:43,680 dollars during that run, and we hit another five percent play. 631 00:32:44,279 --> 00:32:46,960 I won't mention who it was because Kelly will have 632 00:32:47,079 --> 00:32:49,680 Dan shut my mic off, but it was a forty 633 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,400 three to twenty winter last week, laying seven in the 634 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,079 big twelve. You can figure it out from there. We're 635 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,480 now thirty five and sixteen on those five percent plays. 636 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,079 You'll get one of those this week as well, and 637 00:33:02,119 --> 00:33:04,519 they sell for thirty five dollars by themselves. So the 638 00:33:04,519 --> 00:33:06,400 sixty four dollars package is. 639 00:33:06,359 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 3: The way to go. 640 00:33:07,279 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 5: Join me for Marco's Birthday bash this week. Now for 641 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:15,000 this best bet. We've got Liberty and we're gonna lay 642 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,000 the seven and a half here. And this is a 643 00:33:17,079 --> 00:33:21,240 situation with Liberty going into the season. Every sharp I 644 00:33:21,319 --> 00:33:26,119 know had Liberty running away with Conference USA this year, 645 00:33:26,559 --> 00:33:29,519 but a four game losing streak to start the season 646 00:33:30,079 --> 00:33:32,960 derailed them early on. They have now won three in 647 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,759 a row and they are playing at the level that 648 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,319 brought them all of the attention at the beginning of 649 00:33:38,319 --> 00:33:40,599 the season that we thought they would be playing with. 650 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:45,319 The turnaround comes thanks to Liberty's defense, as they fixed 651 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,319 what was wrong, and that was the rush defense. In 652 00:33:48,359 --> 00:33:51,160 their first five games, they were allowing an average of 653 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,960 one hundred and sixty four yards per game. Over the 654 00:33:54,039 --> 00:33:58,119 last three games, they've allowed an average of just ninety 655 00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:02,519 two yards per game. Here's the thing that bad start 656 00:34:02,559 --> 00:34:04,319 at the beginning of the season. A lot of it 657 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,599 was out of conference. In conference, they're sitting at three 658 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,320 and one. There are only one game behind the two 659 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,800 conference leaders who are at four and oh. To me, 660 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,239 this is an absolute by low spot on Liberty at 661 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,559 seven and a half. My numbers say it should be 662 00:34:18,599 --> 00:34:21,880 closer to ten. And too often what happens is people 663 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:26,239 don't adjust their numbers correctly. As they go through the season, 664 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,199 they look at a season average as far as numbers go, 665 00:34:29,599 --> 00:34:33,559 and they draw their conclusion. You can't compare what somebody 666 00:34:33,559 --> 00:34:37,079 did in September to what they did in October, especially 667 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,960 when it's out of conference schedules where you're playing those 668 00:34:41,039 --> 00:34:43,159 games in September, and a lot of times you've got 669 00:34:43,159 --> 00:34:47,480 teams that have inflated numbers because they play little sisters 670 00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,519 of the poor, or you have teams that play worse 671 00:34:50,599 --> 00:34:54,239 because they play above their heads in the month of September. 672 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,960 Liberties flying under the radar, playing their best ball. Right now, 673 00:34:58,199 --> 00:35:02,199 I'm riding them this week. I've got Liberty rolling over 674 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:03,039 Missouri State. 675 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 1: All right, I need the comments section to get ready. 676 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,280 I've got something really important. I need all of you 677 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:13,360 guys to do. Hit your caplocks button and type Happy birthday, Marco. 678 00:35:14,519 --> 00:35:19,639 Speaker 2: Exclamation points, Happy early birthday, Marco DiAngelo. 679 00:35:20,119 --> 00:35:20,519 Speaker 3: Thank you. 680 00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,599 Speaker 1: Usually when we were back in studio, I would bring 681 00:35:23,599 --> 00:35:25,360 you a cake, but it's kind of pointless now because 682 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:26,800 I don't need to eat the cake, so I'm not 683 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:27,159 bringing it. 684 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,360 Speaker 2: Even as a prop. 685 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,079 Speaker 1: We're gonna take a nice underdog, and this was a 686 00:35:31,159 --> 00:35:32,880 team that it's on my list. 687 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,280 Speaker 2: I like them plus the points. I haven't gotten to 688 00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:36,360 the window with the money line. 689 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 1: I need a little bit more time before Wednesday morning 690 00:35:39,199 --> 00:35:41,519 to decide if they can win this game outright. 691 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:43,360 Speaker 2: And that team, of course, is Yukon. 692 00:35:43,559 --> 00:35:46,840 Speaker 1: You guys, remember we took Yukon just a few short 693 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:48,800 weeks ago, I think it was Week two, and they 694 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,559 blew a double digit lead to Syracuse. That was the 695 00:35:52,599 --> 00:35:56,599 first pain of the underdog parlay this year. But Jim 696 00:35:56,679 --> 00:36:00,840 Mora still very good against the ac see eight three 697 00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:05,039 and one against the spread in his tenure there in Connecticut. 698 00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,440 Speaker 2: Then if you remember we butt against. 699 00:36:07,199 --> 00:36:11,079 Speaker 1: Yukon at Delaware and that was a double digitize that 700 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,719 I don't know if they can win the game out right, 701 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,719 and they did, so Yukon back in this spot where 702 00:36:17,559 --> 00:36:20,440 you're catching points here at home. And oh, by the way, 703 00:36:20,599 --> 00:36:26,239 this is a massive sandwich spot for Duke Duke last week. 704 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,719 Speaker 2: Yep, that's right. Clemson next week. Oh, just little old 705 00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,280 Virginia on deck, that's right. 706 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:38,159 Speaker 1: And hey, I really like Yukon's quarterback twenty two touchdowns, 707 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:42,159 zero interceptions on the season against Dukes one hundred and 708 00:36:42,199 --> 00:36:47,440 thirteen ranked passing defense something to keep in mind there again, 709 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,559 Jim Moore have been great against the spread, particularly as 710 00:36:50,599 --> 00:36:55,320 a home underdog fourteen and seven. Last year, they won 711 00:36:55,559 --> 00:36:59,079 three games in this spot, and just a few short 712 00:36:59,079 --> 00:37:03,079 weeks ago there were a to go and beat Boston College. 713 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,679 Maybe they get their revenge on this Duke team last year. 714 00:37:06,679 --> 00:37:09,880 If you guys remember Duke was a huge favorite headed 715 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:15,280 in to this game and hit that long field goal 716 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,039 to win twenty six twenty one. 717 00:37:18,159 --> 00:37:20,400 Speaker 2: Do kind of ran the clock out after that? Man? 718 00:37:20,679 --> 00:37:22,519 Did ucon fight this team tough? 719 00:37:22,559 --> 00:37:26,519 Speaker 1: I expect more fight from them here on Saturday. Give 720 00:37:26,559 --> 00:37:28,840 me the nine and a half here with the Huskies 721 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,119 and check out my three seam underdog parlay to see 722 00:37:32,159 --> 00:37:35,639 if we end up betting them on the money line. 723 00:37:36,119 --> 00:37:37,320 Speaker 2: Bring everybody back in. 724 00:37:37,519 --> 00:37:41,400 Speaker 1: We always appreciate the comments from you guys. Love us, 725 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,199 you hate us, You love our bets, you hate our bets. 726 00:37:44,199 --> 00:37:47,519 We don't care. Just get those keyboard fingers ready. Marco 727 00:37:47,559 --> 00:37:49,719 and Varn had a lot of fun last week reading 728 00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:50,440 the comments. 729 00:37:50,679 --> 00:37:54,280 Speaker 4: I loved it this cover back. It just makes the 730 00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,719 NFL show me and Marco got some revenge. 731 00:37:57,519 --> 00:38:01,119 Speaker 1: Oh yes, if you guys do want to check out 732 00:38:01,199 --> 00:38:03,760 that NFL Show. It will be up on the Wager 733 00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,480 Talking YouTube channel right here, and of course the Mega Show. 734 00:38:06,559 --> 00:38:09,079 Speaker 2: You never want to miss two straight hours of bet 735 00:38:09,119 --> 00:38:09,360 on It