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Speaker 2: Hello, welcome to another episode of Izon. I'm Andy Milbun, I'm.
Speaker 3: Jason Lyons, I'm Dmitri, Comtacos, Tom tri Andy.
Speaker 2: Want to talk about today?
Speaker 4: I mean, the big stuff that's in the news.
Speaker 3: First and foremost is the preemptive strike Israel took on
Speaker 3: Hasbela to avoid a larger attack.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, So here's here's what we know. Although you know,
Speaker 2: Izon stays clear of being on the cusp of breaking news,
Speaker 2: we're more of a we're opinion pundits, right, but we
Speaker 2: are kind of on the cusp of breaking news here
Speaker 2: as we were when the Iranians hit Israel back in April.
Speaker 2: But what it looks like if I was a betting man,
Speaker 2: I would say everything is pointing towards the escalation. I'll
Speaker 2: come back and explain what I mean by that, and
Speaker 2: I'm open to challenges, but just by you know, by
Speaker 2: way of background, this morning, the Israeli's launched two ways
Speaker 2: of airborne sorry not airborne, of of bombing attacks using
Speaker 2: fixed wing aircraft. And the first they struck four compounds,
Speaker 2: has bombered compounds, and I think we can assume that
Speaker 2: these were weapons storage places or either places where there
Speaker 2: were a significant number of weapons, but more likely as
Speaker 2: storage or but not see two nodes. Quite interesting, okay,
Speaker 2: And I'm going to come back to that, because it
Speaker 2: doesn't look as though Israel really went after his boller's
Speaker 2: infrastructure and went after circling its ability to launch rockets
Speaker 2: from an area within thirty miles of the Israeli water.
Speaker 2: But these strikes were quite limited, even though you will
Speaker 2: see the Israeli spokesman saying quite rightly, you know, hey, listen,
Speaker 2: we struck thousands of rocket launch sites. Well, what does
Speaker 2: that mean in practice? I'm not Hey, listen, this was
Speaker 2: a big strike, don't get me wrong, and undoubtedly it
Speaker 2: preempted a large his Bolla strike. It was good work
Speaker 2: evidently by Israeli intelligence, good coordination targeting with the air
Speaker 2: force in an area that they are very used to targeting,
Speaker 2: which is which is Lebanon. But but but what I'm
Speaker 2: saying now is that the kind of the the honor
Speaker 2: has been done by both sides. And now both sides.
Speaker 2: By that I mean specifically in who uh and uh,
Speaker 2: but also you know, the the I d F two.
Speaker 2: But there are factors of factions within netna Who's government
Speaker 2: who don't want to walk that line. They want they
Speaker 2: don't care about plunging the risk of regional war. They
Speaker 2: think that the only solution is to invade Lebanon. Right
Speaker 2: for now, net Who is not on that doesn't seem
Speaker 2: to be representing them. And you know, and for instance,
Speaker 2: he has he's in his own wording today he's kind
Speaker 2: of been almost de escalatory while shun with a very
Speaker 2: stone warning. Okay, so it looks as though I mean
Speaker 2: the the attack that let's step back, Okay, the attack
Speaker 2: that has Bolla planned, right, it may have been, yes,
Speaker 2: certainly they didn't want to tip the scales into regional war.
Speaker 2: They were all directed at military targets, but it was
Speaker 2: it was going to be a significant blow. You know,
Speaker 2: eleven different bases to include, by the way headquartered the
Speaker 2: Mossad headquarters and Clearlite base in Herzalia, which is a
Speaker 2: poorly kept secret and you know that's that's where actually
Speaker 2: the Israelis keep all of that, you know a lot
Speaker 2: of their intelligence agencies Unit eighty two hundred two, which
Speaker 2: is there are you know there signals intelligence, you know
Speaker 2: from within the military. Well, has Polla targeted both those locations.
Speaker 2: Apparently fortunately those missiles were either intercepted or foiled. So so,
Speaker 2: while almost simultaneous to these attacks, on the immediate aftermath
Speaker 2: or right of the first wave, has Polla launched an
Speaker 2: estimated three hundred and twenty rockets, All right, that seems
Speaker 2: a pretty exact estimation. Most of these you know, short
Speaker 2: short to short to mid range. Unclear at this stage
Speaker 2: what damage was caused. We do know if casual There
Speaker 2: was at least one civilian casualty in Haifa and Uh
Speaker 2: the Israelis have reported that a a sergeant first class.
Speaker 2: This is a little racing, little strange American is was
Speaker 2: killed and he's actually a sailor. He was killed aboard
Speaker 2: of ships. So we don't know if there's a drone
Speaker 2: attack or what from Azbala. But but the bottom line is,
Speaker 2: you know, very low number of casualties on the Israeli side.
Speaker 2: The attack has been foiled. But what is interesting is
Speaker 2: kind of the the afterma after this. And I'll pause
Speaker 2: there for a moment because I see you scribbling and
Speaker 2: I don't know if you're writing a fire him.
Speaker 4: No, No, I'm listening intently.
Speaker 2: So you know I'm speculating here. But this from both
Speaker 2: sides is probably the best possible outcome to prevent you know,
Speaker 2: at this stage, his Walla doesn't want to tip the
Speaker 2: balance into full scale regional war without Iran saying that's
Speaker 2: what Iran wants to happen, and Iran hasn't signaled that yet.
Speaker 2: Right Iran is telling the world because remember it still
Speaker 2: has an open account with Israel for the murder of
Speaker 2: no I'm sorry, the assassination in its words, the murder
Speaker 2: of Hana, who was the head of political head of
Speaker 2: Hamas who was killed in Tehran a few weeks ago. Okay,
Speaker 2: but Iran has kind of been while beating its chest
Speaker 2: as usual about retaliation, has said that it will meter
Speaker 2: it didn't use that, but it will gauge its retaliation
Speaker 2: looking at what is happening at these talks in Cairo.
Speaker 2: So both has Bolla and Iron now are saying much
Speaker 2: hinges on these talks, which, by the way, are kick
Speaker 2: are still going underway right now. The you know, the
Speaker 2: in israelit just spoke a few hours ago the use
Speaker 2: usual kind of bomb bus. But but at the same time,
Speaker 2: you know, he's saying, hey, for now we have finished.
Speaker 2: You know, we have accomplished our mission in retaliating for
Speaker 2: the death of of Shu Shugar right, who was killed
Speaker 2: along within a few hours of Hania a few weeks ago.
Speaker 2: The Israeli's claimed responsibility for killing Shuka, but not for Hania,
Speaker 2: you know, for for reasons, probably the good reasons known
Speaker 2: only to them, if indeed they were behind Hernia's assassination.
Speaker 2: In any case, so his Bolla has kind of chalked
Speaker 2: the slate, evenly, wipe the slate clean as for atoning
Speaker 2: for the death or in yet, but I mean a
Speaker 2: tether shaka in its own perhaps in its own eyes.
Speaker 2: And you know, for you know, Israel's part gallant, who's
Speaker 2: their defense minister told us defense minister, you know, within
Speaker 2: hours after the strike that he was that he and
Speaker 2: the and the Israeli government were very sensitive to de
Speaker 2: escalating and avoiding regional war. All right, take that as
Speaker 2: you will, but that's what you know, that that is
Speaker 2: what the government is saying. I'll pause for a moment.
Speaker 5: Andy, how much do you believe that the US presence,
Speaker 5: heightened presence there in the last couple of weeks, has
Speaker 5: played a part in both the preemptive strike and the
Speaker 5: measured response from Isabella.
Speaker 2: For the for the first part, I that's a really
Speaker 2: good question. If you mean, has US presidence there kind
Speaker 2: of unboldened the Israelis to to take the strike? I
Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm speculating, but I would guess not.
Speaker 2: The Israelis, you know, have a history of taking preemptive strikes,
Speaker 2: sometimes without even coordinating with the US. You know, they
Speaker 2: kind of just rely on that. And I think, but
Speaker 2: but let me the other part of that, though, there
Speaker 2: is there's one very important caveat if we're talking just
Speaker 2: missile defense capability, defensive capability, Yeah, absolutely, you know, I
Speaker 2: mean it would I can't see. That would have been
Speaker 2: a very tough decision for the Israelis to go ahead
Speaker 2: and take that. And and not obviously, as we know,
Speaker 2: because of a threat from Lisbola, but because of a
Speaker 2: threat from Iran, which is the real fear that everyone has.
Speaker 2: That's you know, that's real, the real wild card there.
Speaker 2: But yeah, that's I mean that that's that's a great question.
Speaker 2: But for now things seem to be, you know, relatively quiet. However,
Speaker 2: on on the Israeli side, there are considerable internal tensions, right,
Speaker 2: I mean, as I've said, for the time being, Natania
Speaker 2: who seems to be planting his feet in the camp
Speaker 2: of those who want to you know, who don't want to,
Speaker 2: who want to perhaps avoid going to war now in
Speaker 2: leven of notes, I say now because there are certainly
Speaker 2: a higher percentage of Israelis and it isn't just on
Speaker 2: the right who think that war was inevitable but maybe
Speaker 2: not now, not while Gaza is kind of still continuing,
Speaker 2: all right. And the reason why there is a strong
Speaker 2: impetus within Israel to do that is simply because mensments vary,
Speaker 2: but somewhere between, you know, forty and seventy thousand Israelis
Speaker 2: are still displaced. They can no longer live near the
Speaker 2: border because of the threat of miss rocket and missile attack,
Speaker 2: and so they Israeli see that as a violation. Many Israelis,
Speaker 2: perhaps most, see that as a violation of that ceregnty
Speaker 2: as Is. I mean, they can't live in their own
Speaker 2: in their own country. I'm paraphrasing what they're saying. So
Speaker 2: they are already at war with Hazbola and his Bolla
Speaker 2: would of course say they're already at war with Israel.
Speaker 2: It's you know, this is Mormon, but both sides are
Speaker 2: aware of the walls of the game. We talked about
Speaker 2: this and in the aftermath of a stripe, it just happened.
Speaker 2: And I don't know this firsthand, but in the aftermath
Speaker 2: a there is a direct line of communication between Israeli
Speaker 2: I well idf Intelligence and his Bolla. As strange as
Speaker 2: that may seem to kind of put in context things
Speaker 2: that have happened. You know that that sounds crazy, right,
Speaker 2: sounds like a kid's game. Hey, dude, here's why we
Speaker 2: took through pieces of your game at board because you
Speaker 2: did this. But you know, notice we'd let your city alone.
Speaker 2: I mean, but it is kind of that it's saying,
Speaker 2: here's why we did this, just you know, but we
Speaker 2: haven't struck Beirute, we haven't struck the Becker Valley.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 2: We could anytime we want, and we could destroy your infrastructure,
Speaker 2: but we didn't because we want to wor avoid escalation.
Speaker 2: We suggest that you do the same. And for an
Speaker 2: Azraela's part, as I've said, you know, he's going to
Speaker 2: win some face by claiming more damage than those three
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty rockets cause. But at the same time
Speaker 2: he is going to do you know, by saying that
Speaker 2: he's going to say, okay, for the time being, we're done,
Speaker 2: and is going to put the responsibility on Iran publicly
Speaker 2: to make the next move. There's one wild card here
Speaker 2: that is the Houthis obviously who I mean I say
Speaker 2: obviously because of course the Houthi's right who have entered
Speaker 2: stage left saying that hey, by the way, they're going
Speaker 2: to strike Israel again. And whether they do, you know,
Speaker 2: whether what happens and whether Israel response really depends if
Speaker 2: you look at this on on where An israel adversaries strike. Okay, this,
Speaker 2: this may be this may be a code. You know, obviously,
Speaker 2: I'm sure I'm not the only one who's noticed this.
Speaker 2: But if you hit tel Aviv, there's going to be
Speaker 2: a response, right if you if you stage there of
Speaker 2: tel Aviv and only hit military targets, it's still going
Speaker 2: to be a response, but it's going to be far less.
Speaker 2: And then the Hooti's case, there may be no response
Speaker 2: at all. You know, I'll give you no example, right,
Speaker 2: I mean, the Houthis flew more than one drone into
Speaker 2: a lad right causing casualty. But it took them flying
Speaker 2: one into tel Aviv, into the capital and killing someone
Speaker 2: for the Israelis to go and bomb her data. So
Speaker 2: but but why is that important? Because Hisbola understands that
Speaker 2: that's part of the game. And you'll notice that none
Speaker 2: of these missiles targeted civilian infrastructure in tel Aviv that
Speaker 2: you know, the nearest targets were, as I mentioned, you know,
Speaker 2: the Lila base in Herzlia, which is very nice part
Speaker 2: of Herzelier. I suppose that's a downside though, of paying
Speaker 2: of living there is it's so close to so much
Speaker 2: of Israel's intelligence infrastructure. They've got to live wealth, these
Speaker 2: intel guys.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I wonder what the goalposts are as far as
Speaker 5: all this is confirmed concerned for both Israel and has Bill,
Speaker 5: it's like, okay, we have these measured we have the
Speaker 5: preemptive strikes, these measured responses. But for those people who've
Speaker 5: been displayed, it's like, okay, you guys are doing this
Speaker 5: back and forth.
Speaker 2: When the hell do I get to go home?
Speaker 5: And and what you know, if if Hesboll says, Okay, we're done,
Speaker 5: We're we're gonna stop shooting rockets, but Israel says, well,
Speaker 5: too fucking bad, We're gonna, you know, keep smacking you
Speaker 5: these it seems like these people are never gonna get home.
Speaker 2: So I wonder what the goalpost is for that, you know, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean that that's a great question. I think that
Speaker 2: that that's where his baller has the edge because of
Speaker 2: its obligational lack of obligation to civilian population. Right, So
Speaker 2: in the end, Asmala doesn't give a shit about Lebanon.
Speaker 2: He gives a shit about his organization, his balla. He
Speaker 2: he doesn't want to Lebanon to be ruined simply because
Speaker 2: it's a haven for his balla. But he doesn't care
Speaker 2: about the population there, and he doesn't care if they've
Speaker 2: been displaced or they continue to be hip ary, you know,
Speaker 2: Israeli as strikes. When it comes down to it, he
Speaker 2: wants to be seen to care. But but the Israelis,
Speaker 2: you know. And again this is just I mean, I
Speaker 2: think stating facts little trickier in a democratic I mean, yes,
Speaker 2: leban is democratic, but there has Bollers hold on Lebanon
Speaker 2: is not democratic, right, But little trickier than when you
Speaker 2: have a democratic government beholden to its citizens trying to
Speaker 2: justify why a sizable portion of that population cannot live
Speaker 2: in that part of the country. You know, surprisingly net
Speaker 2: who is not Again this is just I think it's
Speaker 2: just an objective statement. But now is not actually a
Speaker 2: hawk by background, all right. And some might say because
Speaker 2: he's a political survivor survivor and wars bring an end
Speaker 2: to political careers. But here he's trying to walk. So
Speaker 2: it's not because he's necessarily a passive. But in this
Speaker 2: particular case, he is trying to walk a line between
Speaker 2: those who are calling for all out war now and
Speaker 2: you know, and those who are our urging caution you,
Speaker 2: or at least until the idea has had a chance
Speaker 2: to regroup and recover from Gazan, which it has not.
Speaker 2: You know, it hasn't done so yet. I think that's
Speaker 2: that's an issue that doesn't really get stated enough.
Speaker 5: Nice, Yeah, I get. I keep going back to these
Speaker 5: displaced settlers. It's like, how many times are they going
Speaker 5: to be, you know, be able to put up with Hey,
Speaker 5: you know, and all's quiet, moved back home and then
Speaker 5: Heswell I was like, oh no, the hell is not
Speaker 5: and then they start, you know, throwing rockets again, and
Speaker 5: they got to re you know, re relocate and all
Speaker 5: this stuff. It's just this back and forth. It just
Speaker 5: like you said, it's all to Heswell's advantage.
Speaker 2: It's an intractable problem because you can't although okay, I
Speaker 2: forget which un resolution it was hurt, But there's un
Speaker 2: resolution basically that establishes UNIFIL and pushes and says basically
Speaker 2: that's that forbids operations of armed militia within thirty miles
Speaker 2: of the border. I think it uses the Tawny Rivers
Speaker 2: as kind of the limit for armed militias coming south.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, that has never been enforced me, you know,
Speaker 2: because his ball is strong in Soudain eleven. But the
Speaker 2: reason why it's strong is because the fighters are from
Speaker 2: that area. You know, you can't you can't move his
Speaker 2: bolla north from the border because they live there, you know,
Speaker 2: with their families and everything. That's I mean, his bolla
Speaker 2: is like what they do for most of them hard time,
Speaker 2: but nevertheless that's you know, they they they're an integral
Speaker 2: part of the landscape there. But as far as civilian populations, yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean it's sadly in southern Leven and it's the
Speaker 2: poorest who can't move and don't have shelters and are
Speaker 2: still stuck in you know, the towns like the one
Speaker 2: that was that was struck today and and Mansouri, yeah,
Speaker 2: you know, I mean Massori still has a significant population
Speaker 2: there simply because they don't have anywhere to go. They
Speaker 2: can't move. And on the Israeli side, you know, I
Speaker 2: mean there are again I mean not it Israeli is
Speaker 2: aren't all rich by any means, and many of them
Speaker 2: can't afford to move either. I mean, the population, large
Speaker 2: segment of population lived is still there and a number
Speaker 2: of them, you know, don't have shelters don't have things
Speaker 2: sent that they're supposed to do. Uh So, yeah, in
Speaker 2: the end, it's civilian populations on both sides whose suffer.
Speaker 2: But the impact that that has kind of on the
Speaker 2: warfighter or or that people who decide whether or not
Speaker 2: to go to war. It's like you have a greater
Speaker 2: impact in Israel and it's likely to be on the
Speaker 2: side of the hawks. That makes sense.
Speaker 3: I have a question regarding Gaza. I mean you mentioned
Speaker 3: like you know, the IDEF wanting to like reset and
Speaker 3: you know, lick its wounds and you know, refresh how
Speaker 3: many how many soldiers ballpark are down in Gaza right now?
Speaker 3: Is it still going on as the fighting still like
Speaker 3: Beers as it slowed down. Is there a lull like
Speaker 3: where they act exactly like on the ground.
Speaker 2: Yes, so they they've gone roughly. It's difficult to tell
Speaker 2: them because they've got believe two the Vision headquarters. But
Speaker 2: it looks like only kind of a brigade reinforced either
Speaker 2: around or in Gaza. And you know, you can quit
Speaker 2: all with that. You go back and forth where who's
Speaker 2: within or or not. But they you know, they've got
Speaker 2: they're holding crucially, they're holding the Philadelphia Coradel still, which
Speaker 2: is a cause of contention in the peace talks. It
Speaker 2: scores a contention of Egypt to some extent, but it's
Speaker 2: it's a it's become a point of contention too. And
Speaker 2: then in the peace talks because the Israelis insists that
Speaker 2: they want to remain there. Indeed, they assist they need
Speaker 2: to remain in guards for itself. Right now, as I've said,
Speaker 2: they've got brigades boys outside they've got and they've got
Speaker 2: a brigade plus in the north, in the northern part,
Speaker 2: and then one that's just within kind of the city
Speaker 2: boundaries midway, so they you know, that within and striking
Speaker 2: distance of any part of Gaza, either within that or
Speaker 2: just outside. What's sort of fighting verry for a little
Speaker 2: ground fighting, you know, is taking place at all in
Speaker 2: the last certainly in the last a few days. It's
Speaker 2: the Israelis continued strikes, but it's as far as fighting, no,
Speaker 2: it's been it's been quiet. But nevertheless, I mean Gaza,
Speaker 2: a campaign that has gone now for ten months, right
Speaker 2: has trained the IDF and for a force that relies
Speaker 2: heavily on its reserves, it's had a heavy, heavy impact
Speaker 2: on the economy, right by the way, that is another
Speaker 2: reason why that there's a strong impetus within Israel not
Speaker 2: to go to war in Lebanon right now, because war
Speaker 2: is awful for the economy. You start getting hit by
Speaker 2: or you just have the threat of missing one rocket attacks,
Speaker 2: or you're a country at wall, then you have to
Speaker 2: close down your airport. Well, Ben Gurin was closed down
Speaker 2: for a few hours today and you know you could
Speaker 2: see on on kind of the Twitter space, the the
Speaker 2: frantic calls for it to be open, you know, I
Speaker 2: mean that's just a few hours. So it's there's a
Speaker 2: lot of factors here at play, but they all kind
Speaker 2: of line up behind this, these attacks today being pointing
Speaker 2: towards the escalation. I hope obviously, I hope I'm right.
Speaker 2: I want to say I won't, I won't ventures to
Speaker 2: display on that.
Speaker 3: But yeah, so the attack, the attack today was basically
Speaker 3: you know, they were they were staging right for a
Speaker 3: larger missile and rocket attack on Israel.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Israel hit them.
Speaker 3: Just the fact that Israel was able to like you know,
Speaker 3: see it or just you know from their singing or wherever,
Speaker 3: and be able to destroy it. That you think that'll
Speaker 3: deter them from trying to launch another large scale attack.
Speaker 2: Oh no, is that the whole I mean, they you know,
Speaker 2: the it this certainly. I mean, we'll see how preemptive
Speaker 2: this was. And I have no way, we have no
Speaker 2: way of telling how successful this attack was. But if
Speaker 2: we take you know, the IDEF had its worth, then yeah,
Speaker 2: this was this was really good intel. But you know,
Speaker 2: I'm not but a couple of things. One is that
Speaker 2: Lebanon has been the focus for the IDEAS intelligence focus
Speaker 2: since you know, nineteen eighty two. Her mas Her mass
Speaker 2: was never kind of a blip on the horizon there,
Speaker 2: so you know, in the words of one IDEF general
Speaker 2: commented to me, he said, hey, look, we've got more
Speaker 2: targets in Lebanon then we could possibly execute. We just
Speaker 2: don't have the time and we don't have the resources.
Speaker 2: And they, you know, and so they're continuously perfecting and
Speaker 2: refining these targets. Now, when you're talking about rocket launch sites,
Speaker 2: those are really transitory. So it's difficult to assess what
Speaker 2: we call bda battle damage assessment on what were the
Speaker 2: real effects of this. And it's not going to be
Speaker 2: in tonnage of bombs or areas destroyed. It's really hard
Speaker 2: to tell what the preemptive effect is, except you know,
Speaker 2: in kind of interestingly enough, I think in the fact
Speaker 2: that Hospollow was unable to launch a concerted counterattack. Okay
Speaker 2: number one, you know if it had missiles at hand
Speaker 2: that had survived, and it certainly would have done so.
Speaker 2: And scondly is the kind of the wording I mean
Speaker 2: of coming from Israela. If if there was more to come,
Speaker 2: it's a Sunday punch was still waiting, then then I
Speaker 2: know in ISRAELA wouldn't be using this kind of de
Speaker 2: escalatory language that he did today. That's just my hunch.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Ok I went from my entire career without saying that's
Speaker 2: my hunch. I may I may have said up once
Speaker 2: in a boots.
Speaker 3: Outside of that h andy matcher before the show, talking
Speaker 3: a bit about some curse stuff where the Ukrainians have
Speaker 3: seemed to develop and used a jet power drone in Russia.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so, I don't know. I'm sure this has
Speaker 2: hit the news summhere.
Speaker 4: In the States if taking it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm going to mispronounce the name of the
Speaker 2: but I've I've heard this name before. But they've developed
Speaker 2: a jet engined drone missile. All right, So basically it's
Speaker 2: a long range, precision strength drone with a jet engine.
Speaker 2: You know, think I suppose of the V two. If
Speaker 2: it was that that was precision guided, someone's going to
Speaker 2: beat me up for using that. But but in any case, uh,
Speaker 2: something that is supremely accurate and causes a huge amount
Speaker 2: of destruction for a drone and travels to its target
Speaker 2: very very quickly, you know. I mean you've all had
Speaker 2: experienced in drones. One of the hallmark features is that
Speaker 2: they you know that you can is their sound. I'm
Speaker 2: not saying you wouldn't hear this these drones. I'm just
Speaker 2: saying by the time you heard it, it doesn't leave
Speaker 2: you much time to react. And they're cool. Palaian nitsa,
Speaker 2: Palaian nits.
Speaker 4: Yah very good.
Speaker 2: Okay. So this the reason why I've heard this term
Speaker 2: because it was used as a password at Ukrainian checkpoints
Speaker 2: because Russians cannot say certain words or certain so something
Speaker 2: in Paliantsia the Russians struggle to say.
Speaker 4: Interesting.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I can't remember why.
Speaker 2: It means a loaf of bread, so.
Speaker 4: The accent would be obvious. I know.
Speaker 2: I think that they just can't say something there. It's like,
Speaker 2: you know, we have it. Find it really hard to
Speaker 2: say that an Arabic or roll our eyes if they're
Speaker 2: not Hispanic. I mean, that's what I'm guessing. I don't know. Anyway.
Speaker 5: I'm looking at an article. It's from the q Post
Speaker 5: and it says Russians will soon learn to pronounce Polyian.
Speaker 5: Whatever you say, Ukraine's new jet propelled drome.
Speaker 2: Okay, I love it, all right, they will learn anyway.
Speaker 2: So it's already hit one of these already hit an
Speaker 2: ammunition depot in inside Russia. Uh, it was like two
Speaker 2: days ago, and apparently witnesses reported that they've heard jet
Speaker 2: engines inbound. So they thought that, you know that it
Speaker 2: must be a fixed wing aircraft, a fixed wing aircraft attack,
Speaker 2: and that's how it was reported. Turns out that this
Speaker 2: was drones. So yeah, you know, you think, well, now
Speaker 2: it's not only the fact that they can can hit
Speaker 2: their targets very quickly, high impact, blah blah blah, but
Speaker 2: you've got the deception factor that they selled at least,
Speaker 2: you know, like like fixed wing aircraft. I don't know
Speaker 2: how they show up on on radar, but you've got
Speaker 2: the fact that they're now probably diverting resources. So you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, like like the Cursedkin cursion, this is great
Speaker 2: news and it's almost a distraction though from what's going
Speaker 2: on in in Dombas. Don't get me wrong, I think
Speaker 2: this is look look, being being able to to strike
Speaker 2: targets within Russia, I think really ratchet out the tension
Speaker 2: even more on Poutin. And you just have to you
Speaker 2: just have to watch how he reacts to threats to
Speaker 2: Russian soil. At the beginning of the incursion to curse,
Speaker 2: he's caught on I think it was online TikTok video,
Speaker 2: yelling and screaming at his at his commanders. You know,
Speaker 2: it's like it's like a scene what's that horrible hackneyed
Speaker 2: Hitler movie Downfall. Yeah, it's like a bunk doubtful. Yeah,
Speaker 2: So he's you know, I mean, there's no doubt about it.
Speaker 2: He this is really this is really putting him, and
Speaker 2: the Ukrainians know that, and then they're going to keep
Speaker 2: watching it up. But and the same thing now, the
Speaker 2: psychological factor of having your own cities hit by these
Speaker 2: drones and a little cost or i mean relatively little
Speaker 2: cost or risk to the Ukrainians. It could possibly in
Speaker 2: the course of the next year, turn the tide on
Speaker 2: the Russians as far as you know the missile war,
Speaker 2: it could, although that depends on a number of things,
Speaker 2: like the Ukrainians getting had a quit I mean more
Speaker 2: missile defenses. But the problem is this, So all of
Speaker 2: this is going on, and the Russians have according to
Speaker 2: the British papers this morning, they're within five miles. All right,
Speaker 2: that's eight kilometers for those of you who struggle with
Speaker 2: the imperial system, eight miles of Pokrovsk. Pokrovsk is a
Speaker 2: town I'm very familiar with. I've spent a richie and
Speaker 2: I have spent a lot of time there in a
Speaker 2: dreadful hotel that reminded me of forty towns. Anyway, I digress.
Speaker 2: But no one wants to afford to the Russians they're
Speaker 2: within five miles. Why does that matter? Because pot Rovsk
Speaker 2: and Kramatosk are the only the two major cities left
Speaker 2: in Dombas and once they have fallen, then you know,
Speaker 2: Putin can can pretty much claim that he has captured
Speaker 2: all of that region of Ukraine, which is one of
Speaker 2: his stated war aims, and be a huge blow I
Speaker 2: mean materially, but the psychologically too for the Ukrainians, so
Speaker 2: that you know that all of these things are you know,
Speaker 2: uplift the soul to see Ukrainian troops holding I mean
Speaker 2: it's the significant out of land. It's five hundred squam
Speaker 2: milels of Russian territory, the holding like ninety three settlements
Speaker 2: they've captured, uh since six August, so what's then?
Speaker 3: And yeah, and having they evacuated like over one hundred
Speaker 3: thousand Russians too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean you know, I mean I almost
Speaker 2: thought that the it was I almost wanted it off
Speaker 2: of help a that as the Mozart group, but I
Speaker 2: just thought that the name might not help us there.
Speaker 2: That was a joke, you know, sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 3: Is the aim of like part part partial aim of
Speaker 3: this encouraging it to Kursk and trying to gobble up
Speaker 3: as much land as possible if they can hold it,
Speaker 3: is it like a chip for negotiation later down the road.
Speaker 3: I know they were going to negotiate recently about like
Speaker 3: not hitting infrastructure or like nuke plants or something like that,
Speaker 3: and that stopped because of Kirks.
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, that's saying I think that's one fact.
Speaker 2: I think maybe not as a well, yeah, there's a
Speaker 2: potential chip.
Speaker 4: I guess medium and long term.
Speaker 2: Yeah, improve Ukraine's standing ahead of potential peace talks. So that's,
Speaker 2: you know, and I'm not saying that's the most important one.
Speaker 2: That's probably number three, But I think number one is
Speaker 2: forced Russia to divert troops from Ukraine's east, from Dombas,
Speaker 2: and to some extent it has been able to do
Speaker 2: so hard to tell. I mean it, Russia has diverted
Speaker 2: troops from from Dombas, not in time to prevent Ukrainian advance,
Speaker 2: but it's difficult to see if that is actually slowed
Speaker 2: down the Russian advance and Dombas. Okay. Nevertheless, yeah, it's
Speaker 2: it's certain. I think it's certain to have slowed down
Speaker 2: and thus reduced the Russian threat to pop Rosk, which
Speaker 2: I just mentioned, all right, So that makes sense. And secondly,
Speaker 2: is it's kind of you know, change Ukraine's narrative of
Speaker 2: battlefield defeat, which has kind of been hanging over it
Speaker 2: since the offensive of last summer failed. You know, put
Speaker 2: it out is a better way to put it. In
Speaker 2: the fall of last year, right, and Ukraine needs a
Speaker 2: story of resilience. More than resilience, you know, a win.
Speaker 2: In the same way, remember that the stories of Ukrainian
Speaker 2: soldier civilians fighting off Russian tank columns north of Kiev
Speaker 2: in the open days of the war inspired the world,
Speaker 2: I think in the same way. That's you know what
Speaker 2: what the Ukrainians are looking for, and it's more than
Speaker 2: feel good. The Zelenski took you know, yesterday was Ukrainian
Speaker 2: in the end, It's day, right, So Zelenski, on Ukrainian
Speaker 2: Independence Day, to some people's surprise in the West, reiterated
Speaker 2: the fact that that Ukraine would not settle while the
Speaker 2: Russians held you know, any part of Ukraine. And to
Speaker 2: that point there had been some speculation that he might
Speaker 2: start seating or talking about seating some of the four
Speaker 2: regions currently occupied by Moscow in exchange for peace. But
Speaker 2: absolutely the opposite of that. There's a message of defiance
Speaker 2: on that day. So you know, along with that, along
Speaker 2: with that message comes this incursion, the curse and now
Speaker 2: the ability to hit Russian cities, Russian infrastructure. Probably not
Speaker 2: at scale yet, but if the Ukrainians have you know, Ukrainians,
Speaker 2: being who they are, I'm sure will innovate so that
Speaker 2: they are producing these things at scale. It's had enough
Speaker 2: to change the tide of the wall. I don't know,
Speaker 2: you know, probably not. Other factors will come into play.
Speaker 2: But but in the end, I am optimistic, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, I think, I think that the that you know,
Speaker 2: hard times are not over. Far from it. Ukraine's facing
Speaker 2: a manpower crunch, which is something I wrote about about
Speaker 2: a year ago, but it's really hitting them hard now.
Speaker 2: And you know, they're trying to chase down the six
Speaker 2: hundred thousand or so men who eligible from military age,
Speaker 2: who either who who supposedly left the country, you know,
Speaker 2: the working on ways to compel them to return.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: And they're also widening the age, increasing the age and
Speaker 2: widening the age for or for conscription. Their ability to
Speaker 2: get these guys trained, equipped in the line in time,
Speaker 2: their ability to get critical weapons systems in their hands,
Speaker 2: and sufficient quantity to prevent the Russians adapting and talking
Speaker 2: air events, but also long range precision strike. I know
Speaker 2: there's a conversation with uk now about storm shadow missiles.
Speaker 2: You know, see, Ukraine is trying to prepare for the
Speaker 2: possibility that US will no longer be able to support
Speaker 2: it after ourcoming election. So all of these things are
Speaker 2: unfolding in the background and undoubtedly had influence on, you know,
Speaker 2: on Zelenski's decision to launch this incursion into into Russia.
Speaker 5: And on top of all that, correct me if I'm
Speaker 5: wrong that coming a winner will probably put a big
Speaker 5: drawn a lot of this right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know. The funny thing is everyone predicts things
Speaker 2: in winter in Ukraine and Russia, and to include me,
Speaker 2: and it's really I can't. I can't point of the
Speaker 2: fact that operations have slowed down much at all because
Speaker 2: of the weather there. You know, I'm thinking for a moment,
Speaker 2: it's undoubtedly true that that Dombas becomes just this huge
Speaker 2: slush pit of mud. This is one of the reasons,
Speaker 2: by the way that n one e ones are are
Speaker 2: struggling there feeling there. It's very interesting. It's because while
Speaker 2: you know, the Russian made or the smaller, lighter European
Speaker 2: tanks are are doing much better because our tanks were
Speaker 2: made for you know, they were made for the planes
Speaker 2: of northern Europe and then they've been on that test
Speaker 2: did and hard packed sand and tarmac, but they haven't
Speaker 2: had to go to war in a place like you know,
Speaker 2: the Dombas and Ukraine, which is literally I mean it's
Speaker 2: like a roller coaster of mud pits. It's like one
Speaker 2: of those it looks like the course of the mud run,
Speaker 2: you know, wherever you're driving, it's hard to get through
Speaker 2: the best of times. So, yes, so the N one
Speaker 2: A one failed there and the Ukraine is very reliant
Speaker 2: on you know, on the I don't know, I've heard
Speaker 2: the Leopard is performing much better, but also on you know,
Speaker 2: their own legacy, the Soviet model tanks. I think the
Speaker 2: British challenger to challenger the challenger to to anyway, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I have a question, what's that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, like, uh so, some of the weapons systems that
Speaker 3: Ukraine has gotten from the West, are they range wise
Speaker 3: able to like at least even threaten Moscow from Kursk
Speaker 3: or no, Are now they allowed to do it? Like well,
Speaker 3: the US and NATO overall be like, yeah, it's okay,
Speaker 3: you can shoot our weapons as deep into Russia as possible.
Speaker 3: Because there was a bit about in Politico where they
Speaker 3: US didn't want that to happen because they're looking to
Speaker 3: reset relations with Moscow with Russia, which is wild to me, Like,
Speaker 3: I don't know how you don't. The only really reset
Speaker 3: relations if if Putin's gone.
Speaker 2: So yeah, so the Ukrainians have shown that they can
Speaker 2: already range Moscow with drones at least, and i'd have
Speaker 2: to so, you know, one of our listeners can can
Speaker 2: probably correct me. But I believe, I believe that the
Speaker 2: storm shadow is would enable them to strike Moscow, right so,
Speaker 2: but wardless, Yeah, with unmanned systems, they can already do so,
Speaker 2: and they've already done so I think your question pertains
Speaker 2: to NATO manufactured weapons. Right now, there's a prohibition on
Speaker 2: those being used within Russia, although although the US administration
Speaker 2: just in retrospect waived that requirement for the Striker vehicle,
Speaker 2: which is which is sitting on Russian soil right now,
Speaker 2: Vicinity of curse. Yeah, after those pictures emerged, we got
Speaker 2: the that that waiver came out pretty quickly. Oh yeah,
Speaker 2: armored personnel cares, that's not a problem. But we didn't
Speaker 2: envision that we were talking about long range. So you'll
Speaker 2: see in for instance, the British papers are Selenski appealing
Speaker 2: directly to the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying
Speaker 2: who's a labor prime Minister regardless. You know, unlike here,
Speaker 2: both sides in the UK, Labor and Conservative are very
Speaker 2: storm supporters of Ukraine and anti Russia. So Zelensky has
Speaker 2: reached out to the British Prime Minister specifically about storm Shadow,
Speaker 2: asking hey, can we get more storm shadow and permission
Speaker 2: to hit targets within Russia?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Right now that's a prohibition, but they also the other
Speaker 2: So storm Shadow keeps coming up because it is a
Speaker 2: it's an incredibly I mean, it's you know, I hate
Speaker 2: to use the state of the art, but it's extremely capable,
Speaker 2: and you know, it's it's a different capacity by far
Speaker 2: than you know, when we talk about attacks and things
Speaker 2: like that, storm Shadow and in the quantities, I don't
Speaker 2: want to misquote, but I believe, I believe that the
Speaker 2: UK only had twelve hundred and they gave Ukraine something
Speaker 2: an unknown quantity, but UK saying up to three quarters
Speaker 2: of that number, who knows, Wow, But they gave him
Speaker 2: a shitload and they gave them a big percentage of
Speaker 2: what they have. But now so now the question of hey,
Speaker 2: can we use these now to hit targets in Russia
Speaker 2: is a significant question. Right Previously they're allowed to the
Speaker 2: Brits said you can hit targets, you know, in Crimea,
Speaker 2: but but not Russia itself. There are those in Ukraine
Speaker 2: who say that that in conjunction you know, with the
Speaker 2: F sixteen's coming in, in conjunction with ramped up production
Speaker 2: of one five five rounds, you know, imported one five
Speaker 2: five rounds from Europe as well as the US. You know,
Speaker 2: all of these things are are combining to to give
Speaker 2: Ukraine a better edge in twenty twenty five. And of course,
Speaker 2: you know, I think there's a good rational that who
Speaker 2: that right? I hope too, you know, putin chokes and
Speaker 2: buys on a chicken bone in front of front of
Speaker 2: his family. Yeah, but I can't.
Speaker 4: I mean I can't do that.
Speaker 3: That political article is wild to me. How they you know,
Speaker 3: US is hoping for a reset with the relations with Russia.
Speaker 3: I mean that's they can't with the current regime. There's
Speaker 3: no way they could reset relations. Like, let's be honest here, Yeah,
Speaker 3: I it just seems like a crazy It just seems
Speaker 3: like so far fetched and like, yeah, pipe dream and.
Speaker 2: It's beyond my can maybe you know, maybe maybe if
Speaker 2: someone it's just put in the side. But know, it's
Speaker 2: something not with this guy. Yeah, but you know who knows.
Speaker 2: I mean, I see that you've had. I mean, there
Speaker 2: are definitely people in this country who support Russia. You know,
Speaker 2: you've had one of your one of your longtime guests, right.
Speaker 3: Not back then, like he's a friend of ours, brother
Speaker 3: and vestigator, he and he was here before my time.
Speaker 4: Let me put that.
Speaker 2: Out there, and it's all these disclaimers. I'm just going
Speaker 2: to being investigated for his contacts with Russian state media.
Speaker 4: Right, got d Yeah, yeah, so it's.
Speaker 2: Very interesting actually on that point. As preceding that, and
Speaker 2: this is long overture was a it's not a kind
Speaker 2: of a state of finding is the wrong word, but
Speaker 2: it was a it was ah, it was a US government,
Speaker 2: you know, official statement saying that Russian media services, and
Speaker 2: it singled out RT were armed for the Russian government
Speaker 2: or were armed for the Russian Intelligence Service, right, which
Speaker 2: is I mean, it's kind of an obvious statement, but
Speaker 2: but it but it say it made that comment for
Speaker 2: a reason because you've got all these dudes who kind
Speaker 2: of flirt round with RT and do interviews or even
Speaker 2: host interviews and do things as though it's okay, right, Yeah,
Speaker 2: And I don't know. I can't come in about what
Speaker 2: the you know, investigating Scott Ridder and this other dude.
Speaker 4: For well, they raided his home, right, yeah.
Speaker 2: Particular, but you and I both know there are many
Speaker 2: others who he dunce, who call themselves Americans and have
Speaker 2: been very pro Russian throughout this whole sorry debacles.
Speaker 3: Frankly, I think people like Scott Ridder, especially for him
Speaker 3: about like he had his deal with his like sexual
Speaker 3: abuse cases and all that stuff, you know, dirtbag stuff.
Speaker 3: He's an absolute monster if you ask me, and nobody
Speaker 3: would touch him. Russia would and he's got a butter.
Speaker 2: His Well, well that's not true. The team house in
Speaker 2: Russian was talking about it.
Speaker 4: It was before my time, dude.
Speaker 3: I mean, so people don't know Scott Ridder was a
Speaker 3: un weapons it's man. Yeah, and uh report sortily an
Speaker 3: Iraqi agent. I have that on a good source. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: I heard that. I'll say what the CIA guys tell me.
Speaker 3: I think it was in the press.
Speaker 4: It was not Jason.
Speaker 2: Hemp in Iracky and a Russian agent.
Speaker 4: Well during the Iraq War. It's a trifective. You have
Speaker 4: that on your.
Speaker 2: Marine officer, that's the horness part right, Yeah, is the
Speaker 2: marine man.
Speaker 4: I think you had mentioned. I didn't know that he
Speaker 4: was or wasn't.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think something was. I think I you know,
Speaker 2: I companed myself to look him up on Wikipedia right now. Yeah, no,
Speaker 2: but but I believe it was.
Speaker 3: But there is a loud minority of folks out there
Speaker 3: in the United States that are American journalist quote unquote
Speaker 3: pundits that are full throated uh.
Speaker 2: Oh yeahs and Russia.
Speaker 4: It's kind of wild to me. Like you saw Tim.
Speaker 2: Poole, who was a falling victim to uh one.
Speaker 3: Tim Poole had a clip that came out yesterday where
Speaker 3: he was like seething about the curse concursion and that
Speaker 3: Ukraine was a terrorist state invading a fucking foreign country,
Speaker 3: Like where have you been the last literally? Like now,
Speaker 3: I'm not saying Tim Poole, he's a he's a relatively
Speaker 3: popular right wing I would say, uh commentator, Oh okay.
Speaker 4: He was seething.
Speaker 2: If we were if we took like an extreme right
Speaker 2: wing like I mean not right wing, extreme right wing,
Speaker 2: but if we were right to wing, or if we
Speaker 2: took a stance politically rash, please do not do that.
Speaker 2: And I did not say extreme right wing, but more
Speaker 2: of a right wing position. I think certainly that would
Speaker 2: make us perhaps more popular.
Speaker 4: With our question. Yeah, but yeah, we'd be riding in
Speaker 4: jet skis.
Speaker 2: But we like you know, we like a well balanced
Speaker 2: Tony ends, we like.
Speaker 3: The the value even eyes on and also the team house,
Speaker 3: like if we went if we went right of center
Speaker 3: a writer writer, yeah, we would probably make a lot
Speaker 3: more money. And it's hampered growth, but like we're not
Speaker 3: doing it for growth for growth's sake, right, We're trying
Speaker 3: to be as down the pipe as possible. We'll sometimes
Speaker 3: have right wingers on, well sometimes I have left he's on,
Speaker 3: and for the most part, like especially teamhouse, most most
Speaker 3: mill guys and CIA guys are, like you said last week,
Speaker 3: are right of center. They're not full on you know,
Speaker 3: goose step right of center, but right of center. If
Speaker 3: you're in the you know that's understandable. So that's where
Speaker 3: we try to keep it. And it's hampered our growth
Speaker 3: in terms of like money or like subscribers and stuff.
Speaker 3: If you started talking about UFOs and you know, right,
Speaker 3: we would be, Yeah, we'd be. I swear to god,
Speaker 3: we'd each have jet skis.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I personally don't give a ship either way about
Speaker 5: being popular.
Speaker 4: So right, I would love a jet Ski, but I
Speaker 4: want to do for the reason.
Speaker 2: I know jet Ski too. Yeah, just isn't popularity. I
Speaker 2: don't know, it's a right, you know, I'd like I like,
Speaker 2: you know, our fan base are the intelligentsia, right, sure? Yeah?
Speaker 2: We I know we we don't. You know. We have
Speaker 2: a very strict no insel policy, which I think has
Speaker 2: cut down a lot of people who watched the Team House.
Speaker 2: But but I'm glad, you know, I think that's so. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think we can hold on to our audience out there.
Speaker 3: Thank you very much, by the way, we do appreciate
Speaker 3: it always the support.
Speaker 4: Andy Milburn, what do we got cooking? What do we have?
Speaker 3: A great substack article you put out? Check out a
Speaker 3: substack it's down in the description.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, please still read it.
Speaker 3: It was a great article inside of what went down,
Speaker 3: and there's a bit more's insight also in his last
Speaker 3: episode of the Team House or check that out as
Speaker 3: well of.
Speaker 2: My life the scariest and it had nothing to do
Speaker 2: with combat.
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, enough bound all right, what else we got?
Speaker 3: Jason has no Instagram or Twitter, no insta I know,
Speaker 3: but you'd want it out you want it out there.
Speaker 4: Okay, let me alone.
Speaker 3: Patreon dot com slash the teamhouse very important. Yeah, if
Speaker 3: you're enjoying the show, that's the best place to support
Speaker 3: is patreon dot com slash team. The link is in
Speaker 3: the description. Don't forget to like, don't forget to subscribe.
Speaker 3: That's also important. If you can't afford the Patreon, no
Speaker 3: worries like subscribe, share it, Tell your friend, tell your mother, uh,
Speaker 3: tell whoever honestly will listen. And yeah, I appreciate it,
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 5: I am pushing for us to do another well like
Speaker 5: Andy's Israeli live broadcast, but not in that sense of urgency.
Speaker 5: I'd like to do something on location somewhere, you know.
Speaker 4: Just all together, or like somewhere I go war zone.
Speaker 2: I mean, it can be a war zone.
Speaker 4: I'm good on that, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: I'm okay, all right, Well, but yeah, I'm having to
Speaker 2: do let's do when the next episode is going to
Speaker 2: come from?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's think about sometime in the fall doing
Speaker 3: something live altogether.
Speaker 2: That sounds cool, Okay? Should we wrap up?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Thanks guys, before we commit a sales to some Yeah,
Speaker 6: Okay everyone, thanks, okay, thanks very much everyone.
Speaker 2: To see you next week.