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Speaker 1: And the most liquid items as the US Treasury is

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shorter than one year, so that puts in a bit

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to the dollar. Then the other liquid item is gold,

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so that puts in a bit of gold, and what

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you want to have the price of gold going while

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holding as the cost the mining fall and as we

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use the TRB as the proxy for gold mining cost,

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and recently here that goal divided by CRB its new

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highs as one would expect, maybe even a little overbought.

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But the trend is there, Carry, and the trend is

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your friend.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Let's as financial survival Network where

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you get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else

14
00:00:43,399 --> 00:00:47,000
to thrive in today's trying times. You need the financial

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00:00:47,079 --> 00:00:52,159
survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,920
dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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00:00:56,039 --> 00:00:59,520
Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.

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I'm your host, Carry Lutz. We're the second to last

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day of July. The markets have tended to fluctuate, to

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put it mildly, but gold is still in that twenty

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four hundred dollars range. They managed to knock silver down

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below thirty, but wanted to get an update from Bob

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Hoy who has forgotten way more than I'll ever know

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about the sector, that's for sure, and stay tuned because

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at the end we'll have an offer so you can

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get Bob's latest, latest, greatest list of miners that are

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poised to really explode upward when the next phase of

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the metals bull market is upon us, which will be

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sooner rather than later. Bob, it's great to have you

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back on the show. How you doing, Eric doing great?

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Thanks and my colleague Rock. Sorry for the technical die

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he does. You know the dollar particles right, But what

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I've learned.

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Speaker 1: Is that you want to use the real pricycle and

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that is deflated by the you know, inflation, the CPI index.

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And the reason why I did that is a decade

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ago when I did the historical work. There were long

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periods when England was on a gold standard there was

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no change in the nominal price, but then over the

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long period under your years, the real pricycle change is

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then particularly interesting following a great financial bubble of which

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we have been in, and one of the features of

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a post bubble contraction has been gold real price going

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up as deflated by inflation, and it has been. But

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then last year in the summer I got I thought, well,

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why mess around with that, because the only publisher, CPI

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went the luck. So we then did gold divided by

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the CRB, the very popular commodities index. So what I

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assumed was that the CRB index was a proxy for

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mining costs. And this is easier to point out when

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when you say, okay, now, energy is a huge cost

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of mining, and we're all in the proxy for energy prices.

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And what's happened in the last seven months is that,

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for example, who all has followed a half relative good

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that portion of mining costs have been beneficial to the sector.

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But I'm very content happy to stay with the fact

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that the RB is probably a good proxy for mining

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costs as you get and it is up something like

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you know, the turn of the year. So that is

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helping quietly helping all miners, anybody who's producing.

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Speaker 3: All right, So that's helping it costs a lot and

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making these things potentially way more profitable.

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Speaker 1: Right now. Here's here's that point out. An absurdity is

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that if people are and here's about gold stocks, because

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the dollar is going to get crashed, and well, I

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think what happened if in this inflationary world and dollar crashing,

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if the price of energy for mining gold goes up

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faster than the price of goal, you're not making money

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the whole point. And now, the reason why this works

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in the past is that with the great financial boom,

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he's got all tons of bonds and debt, junk bonds

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and all issued doing payable essentially large part of it

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into the financial center in New York and doing payable

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in dollars. So one of the features of the post

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bubble world is a chronically firm senior currency. It used

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to be sterling, and when London was the financial center,

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now it's the dollar and New York is the financial center.

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But then as all over the front of the debt

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bubble collapses, that is a huge loss of liquidity. But

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Mother Nature's got a way of increasing liquidity in the

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banking system. She moves up the real price of gold,

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the miners make more of it, produce more of it,

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and then it gets into the banking system from the

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bottom starts to rebuild liquidity. So as that point out

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that a typical post bubble depression has lasted for about

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twenty years with the business with the three to four

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year business cycle coming and going. The recessions are more

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severe than the recoveries. And as a matter of fact,

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in the literature, the first use of the word great depression,

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but it came in the early eighteen eighties when that

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bubble had peaked in eighteen seventy three and British England

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then was the senior economy, and British economists couldn't figure

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out the prolonged weakness, and then they said, oh, it's

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a great depression. And that's the first minch in the

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literature that I stumbled on of that term the great depression.

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And then of course that great depression ed eighteen ninety five,

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and then you had the whole recovery fact that nineteen

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twenty was the high for commodities, in nineteen twenty nine

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was the high for the bubble, and then crashing all

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over again. So yeah, mother nature is quite brutal that way.

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But if you've got the game plan and it helt

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the whole lot. So our view is for investors to be,

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you know, fully fully invested in gold stock. They could correct.

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Recent enthusiasm was quite noticeable and they big for that

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dock market. The S and P could get hit in

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the fall, so we wouldn't chase gold docks, but we

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would look to repurchase selling pressures day in October sometime.

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But the main thing is that as the rest of

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industry does and the economy does poorly, the gold mining

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side does very well. Like in the nineteen thirties or

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the eighteen eighties, that does well. So you're going to

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have fund managers out there, the more aggressive equity fund

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manager guys, they're going to look at a couple of

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quarters where the EC or DFKA golden neckt is out

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noticeably outperforming the S and T. So what that means

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is that carry that the equity fund managers who would

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not normally look at gold, they're going to say, hey,

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it's a good sector, I got to get in. So

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there's a possibility of a new kind of player coming in.

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So this is why I'm very polish for the longer

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term on the whole breadth of the gold stocks, and

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particularly like during your exploration. That's gosh, it was nineteen

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ninety six when we've got a list of five by

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during your exploration stocks and one of them turned out

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to be well we're looking for a good exploration market,

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and one of them turned out to be er Quippa,

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which went to thirty dollars rather nice. So we now

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have our list of eleven small cap gold stocks they

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seem to have based and what to get with this

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is potentially when they turn up, you're going to get

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much better percent gains than say in the senior gold stocks,

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unless you leveraged and don't care for leverage much. So

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we've been advising accumulating our list of ele jr. And

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one of them I'm particularly interested in. It's been not

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been drilling, but it is now about the start thrilling.

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So that's that's the plot for one of them. But yeah,

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and if anybody's interested in our list of juniors, we'd

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be pleased to send it to them. And also with

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the provisions that one or two may just get stuck,

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but within elaborate or twelve of them, there could be

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some good winners, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, Well, hey, one good winner can make up for

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a lot of losers.

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Speaker 1: Right. Well, it's hid that Eric Kuipa was the one

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that worked for us, and that was a long time ago.

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And any stocks, any stocks that goes to thirty dollars.

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You're going to kind of like it or remember the experience,

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won't you.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah, we need to see more of them, though,

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we need some more of them, Bob.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I think our list is it's pretty good. Summers.

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There's there's a small producers, there, a small preproduction, and

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then there's some history exploration stocks. And one of them

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in which we can talk about separately, is it is

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just starting to drill on what could be another witwaters

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Rand geology. Now Whittwater's ran geology. It's in South Africa

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and that's the system that hosts all of that gold mining.

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And they kept the number carriers that wit has produced

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some forty percent of all of the gold ever mined

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in history and it's still even today and that's from

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eighteen production and still today it's got one of the

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outstanding reserves in the world. So Witwaters we ran gold,

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sit and runs wherever you can say. So one on

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the stock, as I say, we're just starting drill now

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and we soon should get out of the h lit

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thing and onto the get the network if they call it.

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There could be a good run in the stock on

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two things. One getting up on the recognized lifting and

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two actually getting results out of the field. So yeah,

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we can. They can get in touch with the analystics

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can get in touch and yeah, or just sent me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they can just send me an email k l

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at terry LUTs dot com and say Bob's stocks or

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Bob's picks in the subject line and I will forward

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you the link.

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Speaker 1: That's great because Rock, my colleague, is set up a

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system for with this sore back of it all that

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were really sat for it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, excellent, excellent, So just send that email and we

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will take care of the rest for you. So as

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far as looking ahead, so you still believe that that

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belief that the dollar is going to go to oblivion

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is uh, the dollar's death is greatly exaggerated.

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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, that was my news of the dollars death

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has been greatly exaggerated. Now let me give you I

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handed at it a little while ago in in a great,

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a great bubble the stock market gate. You get your tention,

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but also the bubble is in that to it, and

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that bubble like you wouldn't believe now once the party

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is over, that that is due unpayable in US dollars

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into New York. You know, all you have to do

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is they have to sack percent seventy percent of all

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the debt bubble doing payable in New York and just

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servicing that dad into New York is a huge bid

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for the dollar. But also you have investors around the world,

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the very careful investors, and in a storm, they will

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go to just the most liquid items. Return does matter,

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and the most liquid item, as the US Treasury is

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shorter than one year, so that puts in a bit

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to the dollar. Then the other liquid item is gold,

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so that puts in a bit of gold. And what

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you want to have the price of gold going while

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holding as the cost the mining fall. And as they say,

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we use the CRB as a proxy for gold mining costs.

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And recently here that goal divided by CRB its new

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highs as one would expect, maybe even a little overbought.

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But the trend is there carry and the trend is

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your friend and sector of gold sectors on a longbow market,

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and there would be times when it becomes fabulous with

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a potential world scale discovery, and that's the one of

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the ones you want to have in a sweet city

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of eleven or twelve gold stars like air Kuiper one

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that has that could come well very rewarding.

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Speaker 3: Yeah all right, all right, so what about all the debt.

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We're always worrying about all the debt. Does it just disappear?

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What happens to you?

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Speaker 1: It ends up massive loss to the only global economy

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because you're going to have young fonds down to no

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bed just and defaulting. But then you can't you don't

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want to own high heeld bonds. Now. The other thing

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is because the liquidity disappearance be fact that you don't

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want to own long treasuries are there, but if you're

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in deposits or short like three months bills, those three

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months built, they're going to go back down to zero

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percent again. Then the Fed funds will follow. So the

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happy point could be say three to four year term

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good corporate bonds. You get a howl a lot better

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return than from fee bill or deposit type stuff, and

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at a four year term you're not going to get

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whacked too much by price. I really like it. For

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fifteen some investors, it's the three to four year good

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great corporate bonds. And if you go to a full brokers,

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they will probably have a bond desk where they can

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give you a fill on those bonds and you know,

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whereas if you are send tree bills going to go

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to zero, they fed funds. Oh you're there now talking

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carry about h what's gonna be? Oh, it's a disaster,

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fed chatter disaster. And I'll explain it is because in

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a in a boom and I've got to figure even

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back to five hundred pc, interest rate go up in

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a boom and they go down in the bus. So

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the current buzz is that an interesting because it's going

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to cut and that'll get the party going. Oh, that

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is dead wrong. And there was a guy with airstrusted

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in September of two thousand and seven and I got

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a quote bitten somewhere here, but I've used it and

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break and rightly he said. He says, it's absolutely certain

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that the FED pat will help the stock market. Well,

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the stock market peaked in the middle of that October.

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They economy peaked that September, and we went into this

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eighth nine bear market, which was very severe. So the

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point being, and also we did a chart and I'm

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updating the study now, and you take it tart of

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the S and P against the three months Pradier bill,

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and not only do they fall together, but on the

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fastest funges with the table rate are associated with the

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fastest funges in the in the S and P. Really,

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so they're talking up and they're excited about the FED

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cut and FED cut will be a disaster.

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Speaker 3: Hell, it's going to ask So that's going to cause

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the market to collapse. Is that what you're saying here?

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Speaker 1: It is a technical beast and it it became. Now

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here's the way we look at it. It's easily May

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and June of the year can be very good for

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stock prices. And as a matter of fact, the of

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the five great financial bubbles, if the first the SOUTHI

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bubble seventeen twenty, the peaks were in May and actually

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in London, the Southia bubble peaked in that June. So hey,

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there's empirical stuff behind it. So what you want to

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do is in June and July, which was what we've

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been doing. Is if the action was not overbought, you're

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in a rising trend of able market. But the action

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we rang all our bells and whistles. This was that momentum.

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It had sequentials that had all kinds of things on

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a probable sea at all high. So the first would

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be a loss of momentum. We've had that, and the

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next it would take out a correction on the way up.

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And that's happened. So I take a stock market is

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going to do it around to August and then typically

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if you're going to have a financial disaster, it will

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more likely be discovered in the fall. So our advice

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is to take money off the table and in long bonds,

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in avoid young best again avoid just I mean, just

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don't go there and raise the liquidity from your equity

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portance bok. Sure that in a hard time liquidity gets

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to be very important.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, liquidity isn't important until it becomes important, right.

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Speaker 1: I think somebody important said something about that's description of

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going broke. They're going broke right, Oh, and then it

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was very fast or something like that.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's like bank runs. As long as people believe

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that they can get their money from their bank, they're

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happy to leave it there. But the second they believe,

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where you believe that your bank is going to hit

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the skids, you'll be lined up around the block. Now,

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obviously in the West we've done away with bank runs

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because you're not going to get cash all you're going

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to get is a check to bring to another too

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big to fail bank?

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Speaker 1: And what does that do? Right?

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Speaker 3: You got like nada, so so you get nothing from that?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 3: But when to.

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Speaker 1: Run into a cartoon in the seventeen to twenty bubble,

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when it crashed, it left a lot of people broke.

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And that's what this term lame doc and man and

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oh yeah, Daniel Depot the writer Robinson Cruso I got.

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There's a note by him where and the cry he

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lot nineteen thousand pounds. There's stuffing like that.

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Speaker 3: I was about a million bucks back.

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Speaker 1: Finey and he and then the all three laments that

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how many times you know, ten times that been rich

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and ten times have been poor. I don't aim to learn.

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Speaker 3: I can relate to that one. I'll tell you I've

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been rich and I've been poor, and rich is better?

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Speaker 1: All right?

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Speaker 3: If you want the list of the stocks his top

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00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,920
mining picks, send an email to kl at Carrie LUTs

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00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,240
dot com. The list has changed a little bit from

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00:22:39,319 --> 00:22:41,680
last time. Make sure you go over to our site

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00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,359
Financial Survival Network dot com sign up for your free newsletter.

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Bob always a pleasure. Thanks for stopping by.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad we got together, carry and look forward to

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the time.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:05,519
fine Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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00:23:05,559 --> 00:23:06,079
than ever,