WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:01.800 So they are awake. 2 00:00:02.759 --> 00:00:05.480 They being the whales, they seem to really be accumulating 3 00:00:06.280 --> 00:00:10.640 confidently now. And you combine that with the fact that 4 00:00:10.960 --> 00:00:14.400 retail is dumping significantly at the moment. 5 00:00:14.960 --> 00:00:18.000 They over the last three days have dumped. 6 00:00:18.160 --> 00:00:20.079 I mean it's it's very minor, but it was like 7 00:00:20.160 --> 00:00:23.800 point seven percent of the supply. That's actually a lot 8 00:00:23.839 --> 00:00:29.199 for them. 9 00:00:29.359 --> 00:00:32.439 Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, 10 00:00:32.479 --> 00:00:35.799 Tony Edward, and joining me today is Brian from Santiment, 11 00:00:35.880 --> 00:00:37.479 and we're going to do a deep dive into the 12 00:00:37.520 --> 00:00:40.119 metrics for bitcoin and to top all coins to get 13 00:00:40.159 --> 00:00:42.719 an idea of what's happening in this crypto market. Brian, 14 00:00:42.799 --> 00:00:45.000 great to see you. Good to see you. Nice day 15 00:00:45.039 --> 00:00:49.079 for us to meet here, Tony. Two months high for bitcoin. Yeah, 16 00:00:49.119 --> 00:00:52.920 I've been following like the whale accumulation data on santamand 17 00:00:53.000 --> 00:00:55.159 you know, watching it. What's happening, and we're seeing the 18 00:00:55.200 --> 00:00:58.320 correlation the things we've talked about for so many years 19 00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:01.759 now and the prices up. So I'm happy and hopefully 20 00:01:01.759 --> 00:01:02.840 this rally continues. 21 00:01:03.439 --> 00:01:06.159 Whales move up, so does price tail as old as 22 00:01:06.159 --> 00:01:08.840 time here, so we'll show that and lots of other 23 00:01:08.879 --> 00:01:11.519 stuff that's going on right now as we get into 24 00:01:11.519 --> 00:01:13.640 mid January. 25 00:01:12.760 --> 00:01:15.560 For sure, why don't we kick it off with bitcoin sentiment. 26 00:01:15.640 --> 00:01:16.560 How are people feeling? 27 00:01:16.879 --> 00:01:20.719 Absolutely, So we will start by kind of just looking 28 00:01:20.840 --> 00:01:25.599 at the ratio of all the bullish comments across social 29 00:01:25.599 --> 00:01:29.239 media divided by all the bearish comments across social media. 30 00:01:29.319 --> 00:01:32.799 That's all that is showing here in terms of these 31 00:01:32.799 --> 00:01:36.400 gold bars. So when it's super high, as you suspect, 32 00:01:36.480 --> 00:01:41.439 that's when people tend to be very bullish. We'll arbitrarily 33 00:01:41.480 --> 00:01:47.319 called this line or above right around the foam o line, 34 00:01:47.599 --> 00:01:51.560 and then anything below right around we could even say 35 00:01:51.599 --> 00:01:56.840 maybe here ish that's about the break even line between 36 00:01:56.879 --> 00:01:58.840 bullish and bearish comments. There's always a bit of a 37 00:01:58.840 --> 00:02:02.519 bullish bias. Anything below that is where there's a little 38 00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:06.560 more bearishness than bullishness, and that tends to be when 39 00:02:06.599 --> 00:02:10.560 prices go up. So what did we see, well on 40 00:02:11.000 --> 00:02:16.199 the thirteenth and actually earlier today these are eight hour bars. 41 00:02:16.560 --> 00:02:18.960 We actually saw a bit of fomo and then it 42 00:02:19.039 --> 00:02:22.000 fell back to neutral. Once it fell back to neutral, 43 00:02:22.080 --> 00:02:24.479 that seems to be when price is blasted off. Now, 44 00:02:24.919 --> 00:02:27.080 grain of salt, it's going to be correlated a bit 45 00:02:27.120 --> 00:02:29.439 with the S and P five hundred, So perhaps the 46 00:02:29.479 --> 00:02:32.599 market open had something to do with this. I don't 47 00:02:32.639 --> 00:02:34.759 know if that would be the case today wouldn't be 48 00:02:34.759 --> 00:02:38.599 the best argument, because markets, the equities markets, or at 49 00:02:38.680 --> 00:02:41.560 least the S and P five hundred are down while 50 00:02:41.639 --> 00:02:44.039 cryptos up and that's a nice breath of fresh air. 51 00:02:44.120 --> 00:02:48.080 But as of now, what's interesting, Tony is even though 52 00:02:48.120 --> 00:02:52.240 prices have climbed, sentiments has fallen back down, almost to 53 00:02:52.280 --> 00:02:56.240 that point where we're getting more bearish comments than bullish comments. 54 00:02:56.479 --> 00:02:59.599 So people are not believing this pump whatsoever. Even when 55 00:02:59.639 --> 00:03:02.919 wemp up to ninety seven point five K, not really 56 00:03:02.960 --> 00:03:07.800 any sort of blip in you know, fomo spiking all 57 00:03:07.840 --> 00:03:10.680 of a sudden there. So I'm very encouraged by this 58 00:03:11.319 --> 00:03:12.759 pattern on the sentiment side. 59 00:03:13.479 --> 00:03:14.360 Yeah, that's a very. 60 00:03:14.199 --> 00:03:17.319 Good sign that the crowd is not buying it or 61 00:03:17.599 --> 00:03:21.000 they're in that disbelief stage maybe, right, that's very good, 62 00:03:22.199 --> 00:03:25.240 And it could be they're a bit jaded, right, Brian, 63 00:03:25.240 --> 00:03:28.759 from what happened in Q four and failed rallies, and 64 00:03:28.840 --> 00:03:31.560 you know, maybe this psychological level they need to see 65 00:03:31.560 --> 00:03:33.599 is one hundred K right now. It's like, eh, okay, 66 00:03:33.680 --> 00:03:36.599 Bitcoin bounce, but show me one hundred K plus. 67 00:03:37.080 --> 00:03:37.800 Yeah, totally. 68 00:03:37.840 --> 00:03:41.599 I think the crowd, or at least the average trader 69 00:03:41.599 --> 00:03:47.080 out there, tends to believe that whatever happened last time 70 00:03:48.000 --> 00:03:52.680 one time ago is likely to repeat. I've noticed it's 71 00:03:52.919 --> 00:03:57.080 it's kind of a cyclical process where if if there's 72 00:03:57.120 --> 00:03:59.759 a bull trap last time, especially if we go up 73 00:03:59.759 --> 00:04:02.560 to the ninety five K level, like we did just 74 00:04:02.639 --> 00:04:05.960 about nine days ago on the fifth year, we got 75 00:04:06.000 --> 00:04:08.599 almost to ninety five or so, and then we fell 76 00:04:08.639 --> 00:04:12.759 back down. I think because people got hyped over this 77 00:04:13.400 --> 00:04:15.639 and then got fooled, and we're like, oh no, I 78 00:04:15.639 --> 00:04:18.639 don't want to get bull trapped ever again. They see 79 00:04:18.680 --> 00:04:22.920 the same thing happen here and they kind of shy 80 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:25.759 away or they just take profit, thinking it's going to 81 00:04:25.759 --> 00:04:26.360 happen again. 82 00:04:28.399 --> 00:04:29.000 If you know. 83 00:04:28.959 --> 00:04:34.399 That that popular chart where it's like the dumb traders 84 00:04:35.279 --> 00:04:37.040 tend to think this way, and then there's a big 85 00:04:37.079 --> 00:04:39.319 bell curve around the average trader, and then it goes 86 00:04:39.360 --> 00:04:44.360 back down to like the hooded geniuses who are like 87 00:04:44.759 --> 00:04:47.120 behind their computers and like doing all of this extra 88 00:04:47.199 --> 00:04:50.720 taculation that most people don't think of. The hooded people 89 00:04:50.759 --> 00:04:55.120 and the really perceived dumb traders tend to think similarly, 90 00:04:55.240 --> 00:04:59.120 and they'll actually take each cycle on its own face 91 00:04:59.279 --> 00:05:03.600 rather than us putting this bias toward whatever happened last time. 92 00:05:03.920 --> 00:05:06.920 And I think what a lot of average traders who 93 00:05:06.959 --> 00:05:09.399 are trying to break into being a really good trader 94 00:05:09.480 --> 00:05:12.519 are trying to do now is get away from that 95 00:05:12.600 --> 00:05:17.439 pattern of always thinking that whatever happened last time is 96 00:05:17.439 --> 00:05:21.519 going to repeat itself. There's too common of a feeling 97 00:05:21.879 --> 00:05:27.959 across social media where history always repeats itself, even if 98 00:05:28.920 --> 00:05:30.600 the circumstances are a lot different. 99 00:05:31.240 --> 00:05:35.560 Yeah, absolutely so, I'm this actually makes me very optimistic 100 00:05:36.160 --> 00:05:39.079 to see what's going to happen as we continue later 101 00:05:39.079 --> 00:05:43.680 into this month. And you know, we've often talked about 102 00:05:43.680 --> 00:05:45.600 the herd, and market does the opposite of the herds, 103 00:05:45.600 --> 00:05:48.120 so people don't believe it. You know, that makes me 104 00:05:48.160 --> 00:05:49.959 optimistic exactly. 105 00:05:50.040 --> 00:05:51.720 And we've got a lot to cover, of course, But 106 00:05:51.920 --> 00:05:55.079 I think sentiment is a really important thing to keep 107 00:05:55.079 --> 00:05:58.519 an eye on now because based on the pattern just 108 00:05:58.560 --> 00:06:02.079 over the last few days, it does seem like there's 109 00:06:02.079 --> 00:06:04.519 a lot of doubt there. And the other big argument 110 00:06:05.439 --> 00:06:10.360 that a lot of you know, trusted KOLs that Santaman 111 00:06:10.480 --> 00:06:13.240 follows are making right now is the fact that the 112 00:06:13.319 --> 00:06:16.120 S and P five hundred and Gold are continuing to 113 00:06:16.120 --> 00:06:19.199 make all time highs. You got another all time high 114 00:06:19.240 --> 00:06:21.560 just a couple of days ago for the S and P, 115 00:06:22.519 --> 00:06:25.000 and it did drop today. I have to make sure 116 00:06:25.040 --> 00:06:27.800 the last couple days were refreshed there. Gold did jump 117 00:06:27.839 --> 00:06:30.319 to a new all time high temporarily earlier today. 118 00:06:30.079 --> 00:06:30.519 And then fall. 119 00:06:30.680 --> 00:06:33.480 But here comes Bitcoin all of a sudden starting to 120 00:06:33.519 --> 00:06:39.920 play catch up. You see that big divergence. Let's just 121 00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:43.279 market with a bell here. That's fine divergence that started 122 00:06:43.399 --> 00:06:47.199 right around early to mid December December tenth, eleventh, twelfth. 123 00:06:47.439 --> 00:06:50.160 Bitcoin goes down while Gold and the S and P 124 00:06:50.319 --> 00:06:54.000 start to really take off here. So that's a sign 125 00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:58.040 that because of the fact that the correlation between Bitcoin 126 00:06:58.120 --> 00:07:00.879 and the S and P especially have been so prevalent 127 00:07:00.920 --> 00:07:03.480 the last three es years or so, maybe even close 128 00:07:03.519 --> 00:07:08.920 to four now, there should be some sort of regression 129 00:07:08.959 --> 00:07:12.199 to the mean that favors Bitcoin and allows it to 130 00:07:12.199 --> 00:07:14.519 play catch up. Of course, the other scenario is that 131 00:07:14.920 --> 00:07:17.839 the S and P five hundred tanks and Bitcoin doesn't 132 00:07:17.839 --> 00:07:20.160 have an opportunity to catch up because the S and 133 00:07:20.240 --> 00:07:22.439 P just falls back down to where bitcoin is. But 134 00:07:23.480 --> 00:07:26.240 this gap here is still showing a nice setup for 135 00:07:26.279 --> 00:07:30.639 Bitcoin to continue rallying toward one hundred k and potentially 136 00:07:30.680 --> 00:07:33.839 beyond if retail fomo doesn't ruin that rally. 137 00:07:35.560 --> 00:07:37.839 Very interesting, and you know, one of the things people 138 00:07:37.879 --> 00:07:41.600 were talking about why bitcoin doesn't lord of crypto market 139 00:07:41.639 --> 00:07:44.040 didn't keep up with gold and the S and P 140 00:07:44.120 --> 00:07:46.839 five hundred or stock market was there was that big 141 00:07:46.920 --> 00:07:49.879 liquidation event on October tenth, and that kind of set 142 00:07:49.920 --> 00:07:53.519 things back where liquidity was an issue. You know, there 143 00:07:53.600 --> 00:07:56.399 was some kind of a domino effect with the exchanges 144 00:07:56.439 --> 00:07:59.040 and much more so. You know, I'm obviously I'm just speculating, 145 00:07:59.040 --> 00:07:59.800 but that could be it. 146 00:08:00.720 --> 00:08:01.000 Yeah. 147 00:08:01.040 --> 00:08:03.279 I mean people don't talk about the stock market as 148 00:08:03.360 --> 00:08:06.199 much around that time, but it tanked a lot too. 149 00:08:06.319 --> 00:08:08.399 I mean, it was like a two and a half 150 00:08:08.439 --> 00:08:11.439 three percent drop in one day before it quickly recovered 151 00:08:11.839 --> 00:08:16.399 after Trump kind of rescinded his tariff threats on China. 152 00:08:16.519 --> 00:08:19.600 That was the whole reason there was a tank in 153 00:08:19.639 --> 00:08:22.040 the first place. And all these liquidations happened. A lot 154 00:08:22.040 --> 00:08:25.560 of people just attribute it to some shadiness from exchanges, 155 00:08:25.600 --> 00:08:28.199 and yes, I'm sure part of that is true, but 156 00:08:29.120 --> 00:08:32.600 the news that came out about Trump kind of revisiting 157 00:08:32.639 --> 00:08:36.039 those tariffs was the reason this fell. But you're right, 158 00:08:36.240 --> 00:08:39.000 Bitcoin didn't really recover. It had a little bit of 159 00:08:39.000 --> 00:08:41.399 a bounce here and then fell off the face of 160 00:08:41.399 --> 00:08:44.240 the earth. But I think early to mid November was 161 00:08:44.279 --> 00:08:47.759 what really crushed bitcoin more so than the October tenth 162 00:08:47.799 --> 00:08:48.559 liquidation event. 163 00:08:49.320 --> 00:08:51.399 Yeah, for sure, there was a lot of talks of 164 00:08:52.360 --> 00:08:55.159 not only the liquidation event, but the Foyer cycle. Well 165 00:08:55.360 --> 00:08:57.799 is that it right? And it became maybe a self 166 00:08:57.840 --> 00:09:01.639 fulfilling prophecy because everybody thought, whoa, there's your crash. We 167 00:09:01.720 --> 00:09:03.960 hit a new all time high. There was the major 168 00:09:03.960 --> 00:09:07.639 liquidation event, maybe it is over, and then people kind 169 00:09:07.639 --> 00:09:08.279 of walked away. 170 00:09:09.039 --> 00:09:11.639 Yeah, we've said it on a few shows before, Tony, 171 00:09:12.279 --> 00:09:15.360 or at least I have. The four year cycle has 172 00:09:15.399 --> 00:09:20.519 some merit, but I always caution people to look at 173 00:09:20.519 --> 00:09:23.799 a four year cycle for still a very young industry. 174 00:09:23.879 --> 00:09:28.879 Crypto has only been around since oaitish or so, and 175 00:09:29.720 --> 00:09:33.440 that means we've really only had five or so complete cycles, 176 00:09:33.960 --> 00:09:37.320 pretty small sample size to just say every third year 177 00:09:37.399 --> 00:09:39.120 does this, every first year does that? 178 00:09:40.039 --> 00:09:44.559 Yeah? Absolutely, And that is I think something I think 179 00:09:44.600 --> 00:09:46.799 people have to update, you know, their mental models because 180 00:09:46.840 --> 00:09:49.240 they're so used to a small sample size of information. 181 00:09:49.799 --> 00:09:53.360 But you compare that to the other asset classes, there's 182 00:09:53.399 --> 00:09:57.399 no way that that's going to continue in thirty years, 183 00:09:57.440 --> 00:09:59.720 you know, or even starting now. Right, But just if 184 00:09:59.720 --> 00:10:01.679 it look bitcoin in thirty years from now, are we 185 00:10:01.759 --> 00:10:04.720 going to still be in four year? That doesn't make sense. 186 00:10:05.000 --> 00:10:06.559 The S and P has been around for over one 187 00:10:06.600 --> 00:10:10.399 hundred years and we still don't have a concrete model 188 00:10:10.480 --> 00:10:13.799 for this month always goes up, this month always goes down. 189 00:10:13.960 --> 00:10:15.519 So yeah, that should. 190 00:10:15.320 --> 00:10:19.039 Be a good sign that timing plays aren't all they 191 00:10:19.080 --> 00:10:21.159 are cracked up to be, no matter how much your 192 00:10:21.480 --> 00:10:24.039 trusted kol on x might tell you otherwise. 193 00:10:24.639 --> 00:10:27.759 Yeah, for sure. Okay, Brian, I'm very curious about the 194 00:10:27.799 --> 00:10:32.080 bigcin will data. Yeah, I've been monitoring that chart at Santiment. 195 00:10:32.879 --> 00:10:36.159 Absolutely, let's visualize and actually look at what they're doing 196 00:10:36.240 --> 00:10:40.039 right now. Like I mentioned at the beginning of our 197 00:10:40.120 --> 00:10:43.960 video here, it's looking good. This was a great sign 198 00:10:44.039 --> 00:10:46.840 here on January eleventh. 199 00:10:47.039 --> 00:10:49.159 Just in the last forty eight hours. 200 00:10:49.279 --> 00:10:54.279 We've seen a jump of accumulation from the ten to 201 00:10:54.320 --> 00:10:57.240 ten k wallets. They've added about a little over point 202 00:10:57.320 --> 00:11:00.519 one four percent of the entire supply, and if we 203 00:11:00.600 --> 00:11:04.080 put that in terms of rock coins, it looks like 204 00:11:04.120 --> 00:11:08.320 it's about twenty eight seven hundred and sixty six bitcoin 205 00:11:08.440 --> 00:11:10.399 accumulated in just forty eight hours. 206 00:11:10.879 --> 00:11:11.600 That's a lot. 207 00:11:12.679 --> 00:11:15.080 We go back all the way to November thirtieth until 208 00:11:15.080 --> 00:11:18.679 now they've added about eighty six point five k bitcoin, 209 00:11:19.320 --> 00:11:26.080 bringing them back to their highest total since just about November. 210 00:11:26.240 --> 00:11:29.080 First or so. It looks like October thirty first, right 211 00:11:29.120 --> 00:11:31.639 around there. So they are awake. 212 00:11:32.559 --> 00:11:35.360 They being the whales, they seem to really be accumulating 213 00:11:36.080 --> 00:11:40.440 confidently now. And you combine that with the fact that 214 00:11:40.799 --> 00:11:45.519 retail is dumping significantly at the moment. They over the 215 00:11:45.559 --> 00:11:49.360 last three days have dumped I mean, it's it's very minor, 216 00:11:49.440 --> 00:11:52.240 but it was like point seven percent of the supply. 217 00:11:52.720 --> 00:11:55.039 That's actually a lot for them. If we put that 218 00:11:55.159 --> 00:11:59.279 in terms of rock coins, they've dumped about one hundred 219 00:11:59.279 --> 00:12:02.440 and fifty three and a half coins, which does not 220 00:12:02.519 --> 00:12:04.559 sound like a lot, but when we're talking about the 221 00:12:04.679 --> 00:12:08.759 point oh one or lower tier, it actually is a lot, 222 00:12:08.799 --> 00:12:14.440 and it's a signal that retail has lost patience significantly. 223 00:12:14.919 --> 00:12:18.200 Brian, we have been talking about this for a month, right, 224 00:12:18.440 --> 00:12:20.279 I remember you showing that charte and we're like, wait 225 00:12:20.279 --> 00:12:22.799 a minute, what retail keeps going up? You were saying 226 00:12:22.879 --> 00:12:25.600 it's not a good sign because the whales always due 227 00:12:25.639 --> 00:12:28.519 to opposite of retail, and now here it is. 228 00:12:28.600 --> 00:12:29.279 Man on this. 229 00:12:30.039 --> 00:12:32.399 I know I sound excited, but I'm excited about the 230 00:12:32.480 --> 00:12:34.919 data because the data is showing exactly what the thesis 231 00:12:34.960 --> 00:12:36.360 we've been talking about for a long time. 232 00:12:36.679 --> 00:12:40.039 Yeah, and look, nothing we talk about here is a guarantee. 233 00:12:40.080 --> 00:12:42.399 Just because the signals look a lot more bullish than 234 00:12:42.440 --> 00:12:44.639 they have in a long time, it does not mean 235 00:12:44.639 --> 00:12:46.600 that we're suddenly just going to jump back to one 236 00:12:46.679 --> 00:12:49.840 twenty six k and make a new all time high. 237 00:12:50.399 --> 00:12:54.399 But when we deal in terms of probabilities, this is 238 00:12:54.639 --> 00:12:58.480 one of the most real rallies that we've seen in 239 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:00.519 a long time. We've seen a lot of fake rallies 240 00:13:00.519 --> 00:13:03.879 where it wasn't supported by these bullish signals. This time 241 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:06.440 it is, and things can still change on a dime. 242 00:13:06.559 --> 00:13:10.519 Retail may fomo back in like crazy tomorrow as they 243 00:13:10.519 --> 00:13:13.600 anticipate one hundred k happening, and the news outlets start 244 00:13:13.679 --> 00:13:17.360 to perpetuate all of these bullish narratives that get them hyped. 245 00:13:17.799 --> 00:13:20.840 But what we're seeing now this is legitimate. 246 00:13:21.120 --> 00:13:23.600 And one thing I just pulled up here we just 247 00:13:23.639 --> 00:13:26.399 put out about an hour ago on our socials. 248 00:13:27.000 --> 00:13:27.840 It's the fact that. 249 00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:31.559 Supplying exchanges tony have really dropped off in the last 250 00:13:31.600 --> 00:13:35.240 couple days. To also support the fact that this rally 251 00:13:35.320 --> 00:13:39.600 is real. One point eighteen million bitcoin on exchanges is 252 00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:42.200 a seven month low, and you want it to be low. 253 00:13:42.240 --> 00:13:46.200 That means less risk of a major sell off occurring, 254 00:13:46.720 --> 00:13:51.000 and that's happening while there is a dip in the 255 00:13:51.200 --> 00:13:54.159 total amount of non empty bitcoin wallets, in other words, 256 00:13:54.200 --> 00:13:58.240 the amount of holders of bitcoin, and what is the 257 00:13:58.799 --> 00:14:03.840 vast majority of bitcoin wallets comprised of really teeny tiny 258 00:14:03.879 --> 00:14:08.120 retail wallets that might have thirteen dollars worth of bitcoin, 259 00:14:08.279 --> 00:14:11.639 maybe one hundred and seventy four dollars. These aren't whales 260 00:14:11.639 --> 00:14:15.080 that make up these numbers. It's very dramatically made up 261 00:14:15.080 --> 00:14:16.799 by small wallets. 262 00:14:16.919 --> 00:14:20.480 Very interesting. And you mentioned the supply and exchanges is 263 00:14:20.519 --> 00:14:23.799 at its lowest level since last year, so that is 264 00:14:23.919 --> 00:14:26.600 also a great contributing factor. So yeah, to your point, 265 00:14:26.600 --> 00:14:29.600 this rally looks as of right now like it's legit. 266 00:14:30.360 --> 00:14:33.039 Yeah, I mean again, we're talking about a small sample size, 267 00:14:33.080 --> 00:14:37.559 but the last couple times we've seen drops in bitcoin holders. 268 00:14:37.279 --> 00:14:37.919 Similar to this. 269 00:14:38.799 --> 00:14:44.120 We've seen immediate rallies right after here back in late September, 270 00:14:44.240 --> 00:14:46.600 right before the October sixth all time high, and that 271 00:14:46.799 --> 00:14:49.919 here in mid November when things were looking really grim, 272 00:14:50.279 --> 00:14:51.799 and then all of a sudden we get a nice, 273 00:14:52.360 --> 00:14:54.519 decent sized bounce for the next week or two. 274 00:14:54.600 --> 00:14:55.919 So keep that in mind. 275 00:14:57.960 --> 00:15:01.039 As far as ETFs. You know, I know if you 276 00:15:01.080 --> 00:15:03.480 wanted to show some other data points here before we 277 00:15:03.559 --> 00:15:04.000 look at that. 278 00:15:04.879 --> 00:15:08.720 Yeah, so we just updated our ETF dashboard for those interested. 279 00:15:08.759 --> 00:15:11.480 It's completely free. Whether you've got a sentiment account or not. 280 00:15:12.440 --> 00:15:14.159 We can drop the link in the description so you 281 00:15:14.200 --> 00:15:18.639 have it. But this is the bitcoin ETF volume that 282 00:15:18.799 --> 00:15:20.159 is showing a bit of a decline. 283 00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:21.840 Doesn't really matter that much. 284 00:15:21.879 --> 00:15:25.080 It's it's still quite healthy and volume isn't really a 285 00:15:25.120 --> 00:15:28.960 bullish or bear signal anyways, But I just want to 286 00:15:29.000 --> 00:15:34.399 show volumes before we show inflows and outflows for ethereum. 287 00:15:34.799 --> 00:15:38.799 It's actually we just had a huge spike last week 288 00:15:39.360 --> 00:15:43.039 and it's still way above average as of late. So 289 00:15:43.399 --> 00:15:47.720 ETF volume and just trading in general for Ethereum has 290 00:15:47.759 --> 00:15:52.000 picked up significantly. For Solana, which is still very young. 291 00:15:52.600 --> 00:15:57.000 Outside of this huge spike which correlated with that Morgan 292 00:15:57.120 --> 00:16:00.879 Stanley announcement that they're going to try to enter ETF space, 293 00:16:01.799 --> 00:16:04.120 it's been pretty run of the mill. Nothing special here, 294 00:16:04.919 --> 00:16:09.639 so Etherium and bitcoins still higher than usual, Solana about average. 295 00:16:10.120 --> 00:16:12.960 And then here's the good stuff with inflows and outflows. 296 00:16:13.559 --> 00:16:20.159 Yesterday was the largest spike in money moving in since 297 00:16:21.519 --> 00:16:24.039 the day of the all time high. 298 00:16:24.399 --> 00:16:28.000 Take that for what it's Take that how you will. 299 00:16:28.360 --> 00:16:32.399 I don't necessarily want to call it bullish war bearish. 300 00:16:33.120 --> 00:16:36.559 Usually anomaly spikes like this can actually signal a top. 301 00:16:37.080 --> 00:16:39.240 But the thing is, there isn't really enough of a 302 00:16:39.360 --> 00:16:43.720 rally here to really associate it with like a correction. 303 00:16:43.919 --> 00:16:45.840 Usually this just indicates like there's going to be a 304 00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:48.440 price reversal, But there hasn't been that much of a 305 00:16:48.480 --> 00:16:50.679 spike in the first place, like we saw back here 306 00:16:50.759 --> 00:16:53.440 when there was a correction, or back here when there 307 00:16:53.440 --> 00:16:57.039 was a correction, or even this one. So all I 308 00:16:57.080 --> 00:16:58.919 really take from this is the fact that there's a 309 00:16:58.919 --> 00:17:03.279 lot of money suddenly enthusiastically moving into ETFs. 310 00:17:03.279 --> 00:17:03.559 Again. 311 00:17:04.440 --> 00:17:07.640 Yeah, it's and the ETFs, you know, they're kind of 312 00:17:07.640 --> 00:17:10.160 fickle where you know, if the price is going up, 313 00:17:10.200 --> 00:17:13.880 you not necessarily I don't know how to put it. 314 00:17:13.880 --> 00:17:17.359 It's I would rather trust other data points than this, 315 00:17:17.519 --> 00:17:20.880 because you know, the ETFs are this products being pushed 316 00:17:21.720 --> 00:17:24.039 to many different folks, and if they see the price 317 00:17:24.079 --> 00:17:25.480 going up, they could jump right in, but then also 318 00:17:25.519 --> 00:17:28.359 they could jump right back out or right yeah. Yeah, 319 00:17:28.400 --> 00:17:32.160 I mean it used to be kind of comprised mostly 320 00:17:32.200 --> 00:17:35.680 of institutional money, but I think that's changed, especially for Bitcoin, 321 00:17:35.720 --> 00:17:38.799 which has been around over two years now. 322 00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:40.240 In terms of their ETFs. 323 00:17:41.039 --> 00:17:43.079 Ethereum is a little more fresh, and it looks like 324 00:17:43.200 --> 00:17:46.119 inflows and outflows are are pretty normal and stable at 325 00:17:46.160 --> 00:17:46.559 the moment. 326 00:17:47.240 --> 00:17:49.680 Solana's is there. 327 00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:54.640 There's actually quite a continued rally of inflow days without 328 00:17:54.680 --> 00:17:59.200 any outflow days, but they're small inflow days, So business 329 00:17:59.279 --> 00:18:02.920 as usual for Ethereum and Solana. But Bitcoin does seem 330 00:18:03.000 --> 00:18:06.440 to be showing something that's going on with that huge 331 00:18:06.440 --> 00:18:10.039 spike being as high as it is right now. Can 332 00:18:10.079 --> 00:18:13.720 we take a look at all coins, specifically Ethereum, Sentiment 333 00:18:13.799 --> 00:18:16.400 and MVRV. Actually, Brian, you know, there's one thing I 334 00:18:16.440 --> 00:18:17.519 forgot to ask you bitcoin. 335 00:18:17.680 --> 00:18:19.359 MVRV, Yeah, good point. 336 00:18:19.759 --> 00:18:23.480 So MVRV for those who don't know, is the mean 337 00:18:24.519 --> 00:18:30.000 value versus realize value of basically all of the wallets 338 00:18:30.000 --> 00:18:32.480 on the network. And the reason it's useful is because 339 00:18:33.000 --> 00:18:36.519 it's a good way to measure when to essentially buy 340 00:18:36.599 --> 00:18:40.079 low or sell high based on what your peers are doing. 341 00:18:41.079 --> 00:18:44.319 It's a zero sum game. Crypto trading is just like 342 00:18:44.400 --> 00:18:47.759 anything else, and when both the short term and long 343 00:18:47.880 --> 00:18:51.160 term lines are very negative like this, that indicates that 344 00:18:51.279 --> 00:18:55.279 your peers those other traders are down significantly and it's 345 00:18:55.319 --> 00:18:58.160 a better than average time to buy. There's less risk 346 00:18:58.200 --> 00:19:01.519 in you doing so. When both lines are way up high, 347 00:19:01.720 --> 00:19:04.039 which we actually have not really seen in the past 348 00:19:04.079 --> 00:19:06.720 three months, but we did. If we go a little 349 00:19:06.720 --> 00:19:10.200 further back like here, this was a sign that we 350 00:19:10.200 --> 00:19:14.119 were getting way overheated because your average competing traders were 351 00:19:14.160 --> 00:19:17.559 way above the zero percent line, and that would be 352 00:19:17.599 --> 00:19:20.440 a sign that you're at a heavy risk if you're 353 00:19:20.480 --> 00:19:23.920 buying or holding onto your coins. So as of right now, 354 00:19:24.759 --> 00:19:29.319 short term, because of this medium sized surge that we've 355 00:19:29.359 --> 00:19:33.319 seen the first half of January, it's up to about 356 00:19:33.319 --> 00:19:36.920 plus eight percent. Long term, it's still at about negative three, 357 00:19:37.160 --> 00:19:41.720 So slight, slight argument to still buy in here long 358 00:19:41.799 --> 00:19:46.240 term with less risk than usual, but short term, don't 359 00:19:46.240 --> 00:19:48.799 be surprised if there's a little bit of testing in 360 00:19:48.880 --> 00:19:53.039 this ninety ford to ninety eight K range until some 361 00:19:54.000 --> 00:19:57.440 fomoers kind of get knocked out. Maybe we see MVRV 362 00:19:57.559 --> 00:20:01.079 get back here to zero to five five percent something 363 00:20:01.119 --> 00:20:05.240 like that, and then that's where we might finally see 364 00:20:05.279 --> 00:20:08.400 d the celebration of one hundred K getting breached again. 365 00:20:09.240 --> 00:20:09.400 Hm. 366 00:20:10.200 --> 00:20:12.920 Very interesting, Yeah, because I can see the short term 367 00:20:13.039 --> 00:20:15.359 it is approaching the levels that we saw in October 368 00:20:15.480 --> 00:20:17.839 with the high, but yet to your point of long 369 00:20:17.920 --> 00:20:20.759 term still under water a little bit or approaching neutral. 370 00:20:21.319 --> 00:20:21.599 Yeah. 371 00:20:21.880 --> 00:20:26.079 I mean we've seen far crazier, you know, surges than 372 00:20:26.160 --> 00:20:28.880 just a plus eight percent for thirty day MVRV. I've 373 00:20:28.880 --> 00:20:32.640 seen it above twenty five before. But it's the power 374 00:20:32.720 --> 00:20:35.160 of both of them being up at the same time 375 00:20:35.680 --> 00:20:38.279 that was why it was so dangerous back then. I 376 00:20:38.319 --> 00:20:41.640 don't consider this nearly as dangerous because only the short 377 00:20:41.680 --> 00:20:43.960 term is about as high as it was during the 378 00:20:43.960 --> 00:20:46.400 all time high, while the long term is actually still 379 00:20:46.640 --> 00:20:49.160 below water. That's a much better circumstance. 380 00:20:49.640 --> 00:20:52.799 Oh, absolutely how about etherorem MVRV. 381 00:20:53.319 --> 00:20:56.599 Yeah, while we're here, we'll just do Ethereum's MVRV as well, 382 00:20:56.680 --> 00:20:59.759 and then look at some of its sentiment as well. Yeah, 383 00:20:59.799 --> 00:21:04.559 so so not as good of a circumstance. Ethereum's short 384 00:21:04.640 --> 00:21:07.799 term is up to plus nine percent, while long term 385 00:21:07.880 --> 00:21:10.920 is at plus three percent instead of negative three. So 386 00:21:11.440 --> 00:21:15.279 both the short and long term are above water right now. 387 00:21:15.720 --> 00:21:19.079 The last time that happened was December tenth, and that 388 00:21:19.319 --> 00:21:23.839 was a top where we fell back down. Obviously, Ethereum 389 00:21:23.880 --> 00:21:26.359 is still going to be slightly correlated with Bitcoin, not 390 00:21:26.440 --> 00:21:28.359 as much as some other oflf coins these days, but 391 00:21:29.279 --> 00:21:32.920 you know, if Bitcoin is still rallying, don't expect this 392 00:21:33.000 --> 00:21:35.839 to be a top, just because the MVRV is looking 393 00:21:35.839 --> 00:21:40.039 a little bit overheated now. But nevertheless, if you're choosing 394 00:21:40.079 --> 00:21:43.920 between Bitcoin and Ethereum for maybe just a week's time, 395 00:21:44.480 --> 00:21:47.000 the math says there might be a little more advantage 396 00:21:47.000 --> 00:21:48.759 to sticking with Bitcoin this time around. 397 00:21:50.359 --> 00:21:53.599 That definitely makes sense. Yeah, because at some point alts 398 00:21:53.640 --> 00:21:56.640 do pick up steam and they outperform Bitcoin. This is 399 00:21:56.680 --> 00:22:00.200 a pattern rousine over and over. But yeah, I had 400 00:22:00.240 --> 00:22:04.319 esca point there eth getting a little bit dangerous there. 401 00:22:04.759 --> 00:22:08.079