Speaker 2: So they are awake.
Speaker 1: They being the whales, they seem to really be accumulating
Speaker 1: confidently now. And you combine that with the fact that
Speaker 1: retail is dumping significantly at the moment.
Speaker 2: They over the last three days have dumped.
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's very minor, but it was like
Speaker 1: point seven percent of the supply. That's actually a lot
Speaker 1: for them.
Speaker 3: Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host,
Speaker 3: Tony Edward, and joining me today is Brian from Santiment,
Speaker 3: and we're going to do a deep dive into the
Speaker 3: metrics for bitcoin and to top all coins to get
Speaker 3: an idea of what's happening in this crypto market. Brian,
Speaker 3: great to see you. Good to see you. Nice day
Speaker 3: for us to meet here, Tony. Two months high for bitcoin. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I've been following like the whale accumulation data on santamand
Speaker 3: you know, watching it. What's happening, and we're seeing the
Speaker 3: correlation the things we've talked about for so many years
Speaker 3: now and the prices up. So I'm happy and hopefully
Speaker 3: this rally continues.
Speaker 1: Whales move up, so does price tail as old as
Speaker 1: time here, so we'll show that and lots of other
Speaker 1: stuff that's going on right now as we get into
Speaker 1: mid January.
Speaker 3: For sure, why don't we kick it off with bitcoin sentiment.
Speaker 3: How are people feeling?
Speaker 1: Absolutely, So we will start by kind of just looking
Speaker 1: at the ratio of all the bullish comments across social
Speaker 1: media divided by all the bearish comments across social media.
Speaker 1: That's all that is showing here in terms of these
Speaker 1: gold bars. So when it's super high, as you suspect,
Speaker 1: that's when people tend to be very bullish. We'll arbitrarily
Speaker 1: called this line or above right around the foam o line,
Speaker 1: and then anything below right around we could even say
Speaker 1: maybe here ish that's about the break even line between
Speaker 1: bullish and bearish comments. There's always a bit of a
Speaker 1: bullish bias. Anything below that is where there's a little
Speaker 1: more bearishness than bullishness, and that tends to be when
Speaker 1: prices go up. So what did we see, well on
Speaker 1: the thirteenth and actually earlier today these are eight hour bars.
Speaker 1: We actually saw a bit of fomo and then it
Speaker 1: fell back to neutral. Once it fell back to neutral,
Speaker 1: that seems to be when price is blasted off. Now,
Speaker 1: grain of salt, it's going to be correlated a bit
Speaker 1: with the S and P five hundred, So perhaps the
Speaker 1: market open had something to do with this. I don't
Speaker 1: know if that would be the case today wouldn't be
Speaker 1: the best argument, because markets, the equities markets, or at
Speaker 1: least the S and P five hundred are down while
Speaker 1: cryptos up and that's a nice breath of fresh air.
Speaker 1: But as of now, what's interesting, Tony is even though
Speaker 1: prices have climbed, sentiments has fallen back down, almost to
Speaker 1: that point where we're getting more bearish comments than bullish comments.
Speaker 1: So people are not believing this pump whatsoever. Even when
Speaker 1: wemp up to ninety seven point five K, not really
Speaker 1: any sort of blip in you know, fomo spiking all
Speaker 1: of a sudden there. So I'm very encouraged by this
Speaker 1: pattern on the sentiment side.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a very.
Speaker 3: Good sign that the crowd is not buying it or
Speaker 3: they're in that disbelief stage maybe, right, that's very good,
Speaker 3: And it could be they're a bit jaded, right, Brian,
Speaker 3: from what happened in Q four and failed rallies, and
Speaker 3: you know, maybe this psychological level they need to see
Speaker 3: is one hundred K right now. It's like, eh, okay,
Speaker 3: Bitcoin bounce, but show me one hundred K plus.
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally.
Speaker 1: I think the crowd, or at least the average trader
Speaker 1: out there, tends to believe that whatever happened last time
Speaker 1: one time ago is likely to repeat. I've noticed it's
Speaker 1: it's kind of a cyclical process where if if there's
Speaker 1: a bull trap last time, especially if we go up
Speaker 1: to the ninety five K level, like we did just
Speaker 1: about nine days ago on the fifth year, we got
Speaker 1: almost to ninety five or so, and then we fell
Speaker 1: back down. I think because people got hyped over this
Speaker 1: and then got fooled, and we're like, oh no, I
Speaker 1: don't want to get bull trapped ever again. They see
Speaker 1: the same thing happen here and they kind of shy
Speaker 1: away or they just take profit, thinking it's going to
Speaker 1: happen again.
Speaker 2: If you know.
Speaker 1: That that popular chart where it's like the dumb traders
Speaker 1: tend to think this way, and then there's a big
Speaker 1: bell curve around the average trader, and then it goes
Speaker 1: back down to like the hooded geniuses who are like
Speaker 1: behind their computers and like doing all of this extra
Speaker 1: taculation that most people don't think of. The hooded people
Speaker 1: and the really perceived dumb traders tend to think similarly,
Speaker 1: and they'll actually take each cycle on its own face
Speaker 1: rather than us putting this bias toward whatever happened last time.
Speaker 1: And I think what a lot of average traders who
Speaker 1: are trying to break into being a really good trader
Speaker 1: are trying to do now is get away from that
Speaker 1: pattern of always thinking that whatever happened last time is
Speaker 1: going to repeat itself. There's too common of a feeling
Speaker 1: across social media where history always repeats itself, even if
Speaker 1: the circumstances are a lot different.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely so, I'm this actually makes me very optimistic
Speaker 3: to see what's going to happen as we continue later
Speaker 3: into this month. And you know, we've often talked about
Speaker 3: the herd, and market does the opposite of the herds,
Speaker 3: so people don't believe it. You know, that makes me
Speaker 3: optimistic exactly.
Speaker 1: And we've got a lot to cover, of course, But
Speaker 1: I think sentiment is a really important thing to keep
Speaker 1: an eye on now because based on the pattern just
Speaker 1: over the last few days, it does seem like there's
Speaker 1: a lot of doubt there. And the other big argument
Speaker 1: that a lot of you know, trusted KOLs that Santaman
Speaker 1: follows are making right now is the fact that the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred and Gold are continuing to
Speaker 1: make all time highs. You got another all time high
Speaker 1: just a couple of days ago for the S and P,
Speaker 1: and it did drop today. I have to make sure
Speaker 1: the last couple days were refreshed there. Gold did jump
Speaker 1: to a new all time high temporarily earlier today.
Speaker 2: And then fall.
Speaker 1: But here comes Bitcoin all of a sudden starting to
Speaker 1: play catch up. You see that big divergence. Let's just
Speaker 1: market with a bell here. That's fine divergence that started
Speaker 1: right around early to mid December December tenth, eleventh, twelfth.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin goes down while Gold and the S and P
Speaker 1: start to really take off here. So that's a sign
Speaker 1: that because of the fact that the correlation between Bitcoin
Speaker 1: and the S and P especially have been so prevalent
Speaker 1: the last three es years or so, maybe even close
Speaker 1: to four now, there should be some sort of regression
Speaker 1: to the mean that favors Bitcoin and allows it to
Speaker 1: play catch up. Of course, the other scenario is that
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred tanks and Bitcoin doesn't
Speaker 1: have an opportunity to catch up because the S and
Speaker 1: P just falls back down to where bitcoin is. But
Speaker 1: this gap here is still showing a nice setup for
Speaker 1: Bitcoin to continue rallying toward one hundred k and potentially
Speaker 1: beyond if retail fomo doesn't ruin that rally.
Speaker 3: Very interesting, and you know, one of the things people
Speaker 3: were talking about why bitcoin doesn't lord of crypto market
Speaker 3: didn't keep up with gold and the S and P
Speaker 3: five hundred or stock market was there was that big
Speaker 3: liquidation event on October tenth, and that kind of set
Speaker 3: things back where liquidity was an issue. You know, there
Speaker 3: was some kind of a domino effect with the exchanges
Speaker 3: and much more so. You know, I'm obviously I'm just speculating,
Speaker 3: but that could be it.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean people don't talk about the stock market as
Speaker 1: much around that time, but it tanked a lot too.
Speaker 1: I mean, it was like a two and a half
Speaker 1: three percent drop in one day before it quickly recovered
Speaker 1: after Trump kind of rescinded his tariff threats on China.
Speaker 1: That was the whole reason there was a tank in
Speaker 1: the first place. And all these liquidations happened. A lot
Speaker 1: of people just attribute it to some shadiness from exchanges,
Speaker 1: and yes, I'm sure part of that is true, but
Speaker 1: the news that came out about Trump kind of revisiting
Speaker 1: those tariffs was the reason this fell. But you're right,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin didn't really recover. It had a little bit of
Speaker 1: a bounce here and then fell off the face of
Speaker 1: the earth. But I think early to mid November was
Speaker 1: what really crushed bitcoin more so than the October tenth
Speaker 1: liquidation event.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, there was a lot of talks of
Speaker 3: not only the liquidation event, but the Foyer cycle. Well
Speaker 3: is that it right? And it became maybe a self
Speaker 3: fulfilling prophecy because everybody thought, whoa, there's your crash. We
Speaker 3: hit a new all time high. There was the major
Speaker 3: liquidation event, maybe it is over, and then people kind
Speaker 3: of walked away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've said it on a few shows before, Tony,
Speaker 1: or at least I have. The four year cycle has
Speaker 1: some merit, but I always caution people to look at
Speaker 1: a four year cycle for still a very young industry.
Speaker 1: Crypto has only been around since oaitish or so, and
Speaker 1: that means we've really only had five or so complete cycles,
Speaker 1: pretty small sample size to just say every third year
Speaker 1: does this, every first year does that?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Absolutely, And that is I think something I think
Speaker 3: people have to update, you know, their mental models because
Speaker 3: they're so used to a small sample size of information.
Speaker 3: But you compare that to the other asset classes, there's
Speaker 3: no way that that's going to continue in thirty years,
Speaker 3: you know, or even starting now. Right, But just if
Speaker 3: it look bitcoin in thirty years from now, are we
Speaker 3: going to still be in four year? That doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1: The S and P has been around for over one
Speaker 1: hundred years and we still don't have a concrete model
Speaker 1: for this month always goes up, this month always goes down.
Speaker 2: So yeah, that should.
Speaker 1: Be a good sign that timing plays aren't all they
Speaker 1: are cracked up to be, no matter how much your
Speaker 1: trusted kol on x might tell you otherwise.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. Okay, Brian, I'm very curious about the
Speaker 3: bigcin will data. Yeah, I've been monitoring that chart at Santiment.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, let's visualize and actually look at what they're doing
Speaker 1: right now. Like I mentioned at the beginning of our
Speaker 1: video here, it's looking good. This was a great sign
Speaker 1: here on January eleventh.
Speaker 2: Just in the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 1: We've seen a jump of accumulation from the ten to
Speaker 1: ten k wallets. They've added about a little over point
Speaker 1: one four percent of the entire supply, and if we
Speaker 1: put that in terms of rock coins, it looks like
Speaker 1: it's about twenty eight seven hundred and sixty six bitcoin
Speaker 1: accumulated in just forty eight hours.
Speaker 2: That's a lot.
Speaker 1: We go back all the way to November thirtieth until
Speaker 1: now they've added about eighty six point five k bitcoin,
Speaker 1: bringing them back to their highest total since just about November.
Speaker 2: First or so. It looks like October thirty first, right
Speaker 2: around there. So they are awake.
Speaker 1: They being the whales, they seem to really be accumulating
Speaker 1: confidently now. And you combine that with the fact that
Speaker 1: retail is dumping significantly at the moment. They over the
Speaker 1: last three days have dumped I mean, it's it's very minor,
Speaker 1: but it was like point seven percent of the supply.
Speaker 1: That's actually a lot for them. If we put that
Speaker 1: in terms of rock coins, they've dumped about one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty three and a half coins, which does not
Speaker 1: sound like a lot, but when we're talking about the
Speaker 1: point oh one or lower tier, it actually is a lot,
Speaker 1: and it's a signal that retail has lost patience significantly.
Speaker 3: Brian, we have been talking about this for a month, right,
Speaker 3: I remember you showing that charte and we're like, wait
Speaker 3: a minute, what retail keeps going up? You were saying
Speaker 3: it's not a good sign because the whales always due
Speaker 3: to opposite of retail, and now here it is.
Speaker 2: Man on this.
Speaker 3: I know I sound excited, but I'm excited about the
Speaker 3: data because the data is showing exactly what the thesis
Speaker 3: we've been talking about for a long time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, nothing we talk about here is a guarantee.
Speaker 1: Just because the signals look a lot more bullish than
Speaker 1: they have in a long time, it does not mean
Speaker 1: that we're suddenly just going to jump back to one
Speaker 1: twenty six k and make a new all time high.
Speaker 1: But when we deal in terms of probabilities, this is
Speaker 1: one of the most real rallies that we've seen in
Speaker 1: a long time. We've seen a lot of fake rallies
Speaker 1: where it wasn't supported by these bullish signals. This time
Speaker 1: it is, and things can still change on a dime.
Speaker 1: Retail may fomo back in like crazy tomorrow as they
Speaker 1: anticipate one hundred k happening, and the news outlets start
Speaker 1: to perpetuate all of these bullish narratives that get them hyped.
Speaker 2: But what we're seeing now this is legitimate.
Speaker 1: And one thing I just pulled up here we just
Speaker 1: put out about an hour ago on our socials.
Speaker 2: It's the fact that.
Speaker 1: Supplying exchanges tony have really dropped off in the last
Speaker 1: couple days. To also support the fact that this rally
Speaker 1: is real. One point eighteen million bitcoin on exchanges is
Speaker 1: a seven month low, and you want it to be low.
Speaker 1: That means less risk of a major sell off occurring,
Speaker 1: and that's happening while there is a dip in the
Speaker 1: total amount of non empty bitcoin wallets, in other words,
Speaker 1: the amount of holders of bitcoin, and what is the
Speaker 1: vast majority of bitcoin wallets comprised of really teeny tiny
Speaker 1: retail wallets that might have thirteen dollars worth of bitcoin,
Speaker 1: maybe one hundred and seventy four dollars. These aren't whales
Speaker 1: that make up these numbers. It's very dramatically made up
Speaker 1: by small wallets.
Speaker 3: Very interesting. And you mentioned the supply and exchanges is
Speaker 3: at its lowest level since last year, so that is
Speaker 3: also a great contributing factor. So yeah, to your point,
Speaker 3: this rally looks as of right now like it's legit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean again, we're talking about a small sample size,
Speaker 1: but the last couple times we've seen drops in bitcoin holders.
Speaker 2: Similar to this.
Speaker 1: We've seen immediate rallies right after here back in late September,
Speaker 1: right before the October sixth all time high, and that
Speaker 1: here in mid November when things were looking really grim,
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden we get a nice,
Speaker 1: decent sized bounce for the next week or two.
Speaker 2: So keep that in mind.
Speaker 3: As far as ETFs. You know, I know if you
Speaker 3: wanted to show some other data points here before we
Speaker 3: look at that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we just updated our ETF dashboard for those interested.
Speaker 1: It's completely free. Whether you've got a sentiment account or not.
Speaker 1: We can drop the link in the description so you
Speaker 1: have it. But this is the bitcoin ETF volume that
Speaker 1: is showing a bit of a decline.
Speaker 2: Doesn't really matter that much.
Speaker 1: It's it's still quite healthy and volume isn't really a
Speaker 1: bullish or bear signal anyways, But I just want to
Speaker 1: show volumes before we show inflows and outflows for ethereum.
Speaker 1: It's actually we just had a huge spike last week
Speaker 1: and it's still way above average as of late. So
Speaker 1: ETF volume and just trading in general for Ethereum has
Speaker 1: picked up significantly. For Solana, which is still very young.
Speaker 1: Outside of this huge spike which correlated with that Morgan
Speaker 1: Stanley announcement that they're going to try to enter ETF space,
Speaker 1: it's been pretty run of the mill. Nothing special here,
Speaker 1: so Etherium and bitcoins still higher than usual, Solana about average.
Speaker 1: And then here's the good stuff with inflows and outflows.
Speaker 1: Yesterday was the largest spike in money moving in since
Speaker 1: the day of the all time high.
Speaker 2: Take that for what it's Take that how you will.
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily want to call it bullish war bearish.
Speaker 1: Usually anomaly spikes like this can actually signal a top.
Speaker 1: But the thing is, there isn't really enough of a
Speaker 1: rally here to really associate it with like a correction.
Speaker 1: Usually this just indicates like there's going to be a
Speaker 1: price reversal, But there hasn't been that much of a
Speaker 1: spike in the first place, like we saw back here
Speaker 1: when there was a correction, or back here when there
Speaker 1: was a correction, or even this one. So all I
Speaker 1: really take from this is the fact that there's a
Speaker 1: lot of money suddenly enthusiastically moving into ETFs.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's and the ETFs, you know, they're kind of
Speaker 3: fickle where you know, if the price is going up,
Speaker 3: you not necessarily I don't know how to put it.
Speaker 3: It's I would rather trust other data points than this,
Speaker 3: because you know, the ETFs are this products being pushed
Speaker 3: to many different folks, and if they see the price
Speaker 3: going up, they could jump right in, but then also
Speaker 3: they could jump right back out or right yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean it used to be kind of comprised mostly
Speaker 3: of institutional money, but I think that's changed, especially for Bitcoin,
Speaker 3: which has been around over two years now.
Speaker 2: In terms of their ETFs.
Speaker 1: Ethereum is a little more fresh, and it looks like
Speaker 1: inflows and outflows are are pretty normal and stable at
Speaker 1: the moment.
Speaker 2: Solana's is there.
Speaker 1: There's actually quite a continued rally of inflow days without
Speaker 1: any outflow days, but they're small inflow days, So business
Speaker 1: as usual for Ethereum and Solana. But Bitcoin does seem
Speaker 1: to be showing something that's going on with that huge
Speaker 1: spike being as high as it is right now. Can
Speaker 1: we take a look at all coins, specifically Ethereum, Sentiment
Speaker 1: and MVRV. Actually, Brian, you know, there's one thing I
Speaker 1: forgot to ask you bitcoin.
Speaker 2: MVRV, Yeah, good point.
Speaker 1: So MVRV for those who don't know, is the mean
Speaker 1: value versus realize value of basically all of the wallets
Speaker 1: on the network. And the reason it's useful is because
Speaker 1: it's a good way to measure when to essentially buy
Speaker 1: low or sell high based on what your peers are doing.
Speaker 1: It's a zero sum game. Crypto trading is just like
Speaker 1: anything else, and when both the short term and long
Speaker 1: term lines are very negative like this, that indicates that
Speaker 1: your peers those other traders are down significantly and it's
Speaker 1: a better than average time to buy. There's less risk
Speaker 1: in you doing so. When both lines are way up high,
Speaker 1: which we actually have not really seen in the past
Speaker 1: three months, but we did. If we go a little
Speaker 1: further back like here, this was a sign that we
Speaker 1: were getting way overheated because your average competing traders were
Speaker 1: way above the zero percent line, and that would be
Speaker 1: a sign that you're at a heavy risk if you're
Speaker 1: buying or holding onto your coins. So as of right now,
Speaker 1: short term, because of this medium sized surge that we've
Speaker 1: seen the first half of January, it's up to about
Speaker 1: plus eight percent. Long term, it's still at about negative three,
Speaker 1: So slight, slight argument to still buy in here long
Speaker 1: term with less risk than usual, but short term, don't
Speaker 1: be surprised if there's a little bit of testing in
Speaker 1: this ninety ford to ninety eight K range until some
Speaker 1: fomoers kind of get knocked out. Maybe we see MVRV
Speaker 1: get back here to zero to five five percent something
Speaker 1: like that, and then that's where we might finally see
Speaker 1: d the celebration of one hundred K getting breached again.
Speaker 2: Hm.
Speaker 3: Very interesting, Yeah, because I can see the short term
Speaker 3: it is approaching the levels that we saw in October
Speaker 3: with the high, but yet to your point of long
Speaker 3: term still under water a little bit or approaching neutral.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean we've seen far crazier, you know, surges than
Speaker 1: just a plus eight percent for thirty day MVRV. I've
Speaker 1: seen it above twenty five before. But it's the power
Speaker 1: of both of them being up at the same time
Speaker 1: that was why it was so dangerous back then. I
Speaker 1: don't consider this nearly as dangerous because only the short
Speaker 1: term is about as high as it was during the
Speaker 1: all time high, while the long term is actually still
Speaker 1: below water. That's a much better circumstance.
Speaker 3: Oh, absolutely how about etherorem MVRV.
Speaker 1: Yeah, while we're here, we'll just do Ethereum's MVRV as well,
Speaker 1: and then look at some of its sentiment as well. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so so not as good of a circumstance. Ethereum's short
Speaker 1: term is up to plus nine percent, while long term
Speaker 1: is at plus three percent instead of negative three. So
Speaker 1: both the short and long term are above water right now.
Speaker 1: The last time that happened was December tenth, and that
Speaker 1: was a top where we fell back down. Obviously, Ethereum
Speaker 1: is still going to be slightly correlated with Bitcoin, not
Speaker 1: as much as some other oflf coins these days, but
Speaker 1: you know, if Bitcoin is still rallying, don't expect this
Speaker 1: to be a top, just because the MVRV is looking
Speaker 1: a little bit overheated now. But nevertheless, if you're choosing
Speaker 1: between Bitcoin and Ethereum for maybe just a week's time,
Speaker 1: the math says there might be a little more advantage
Speaker 1: to sticking with Bitcoin this time around.
Speaker 3: That definitely makes sense. Yeah, because at some point alts
Speaker 3: do pick up steam and they outperform Bitcoin. This is
Speaker 3: a pattern rousine over and over. But yeah, I had
Speaker 3: esca point there eth getting a little bit dangerous there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we can see how sentiment might be factoring
Speaker 1: into that as well. It looks like there's a little
Speaker 1: more bullishness toward ethereum.
Speaker 2: Interesting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it kind of happened right before all of crypto
Speaker 1: took off, about twenty four hours ago, but you can
Speaker 1: see the pattern here. Like just since late November until now,
Speaker 1: the average sentiment has picked up quite a bit. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't call this like super fomo and greedy. Yesterday was
Speaker 1: that was the third highest fomo day we've had in
Speaker 1: the past three months, but it's at least just slightly
Speaker 1: above average, with this line being about average for the
Speaker 1: past three months.
Speaker 2: So I'm a little.
Speaker 1: Concerned about sentiments starting to get a little hot for ethereum,
Speaker 1: but it's not out a point where I'd be like
Speaker 1: terrified of a correction like we saw with this huge spike,
Speaker 1: and it proved to be a very good signal to
Speaker 1: take profit while everyone else was filmoing in in early November.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. How about XRP sentiment and then we
Speaker 3: can do MVRV for that.
Speaker 1: So XRP, which had a nice rally in early January
Speaker 1: but has cooled off since it's saw its biggest spike
Speaker 1: in sentiment just yesterday. And yeah, three and a half
Speaker 1: Polish posts for every one Bearish post.
Speaker 2: That's pretty significant.
Speaker 1: So that that tells me that there might be a
Speaker 1: few too many overly eager XRP retailers right now. It
Speaker 1: doesn't mean XRP isn't a legitimate long term investment, but
Speaker 1: be careful with swing trading XRP while the hype is
Speaker 1: this high. You can see right here things corrected right after.
Speaker 1: This was a really you know, cautionary cell signal right here.
Speaker 2: And so is this.
Speaker 1: I mean pretty much every big fomo spike of the
Speaker 1: past three months was followed by a bit of a correction.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin of course, can still pull XRP up if it rallies,
Speaker 1: but XRP has a tough time going on like a
Speaker 1: huge decoupling while fomo is this high.
Speaker 3: H Yeah, good point. So this is where folks, you
Speaker 3: got to follow the data, right The sentiment is pretty
Speaker 3: high there, and it's something to be cautious about, Okay,
Speaker 3: And then how's the MVRV look.
Speaker 1: So MVRV for XRP, I wouldn't be surprised if short
Speaker 1: term is still quite high because of that early January rally.
Speaker 2: But let's take a look.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you can see this was like the huge
Speaker 1: warning sign.
Speaker 2: It got above twenty percent.
Speaker 1: If you look at that top left bubble where I'm looking,
Speaker 1: and that was a sign that it was going to
Speaker 1: be hard to continue a rally, while so many average
Speaker 1: wallets were already well above.
Speaker 2: That zero percent line. And then it came back down.
Speaker 1: We had a little bit of a correction, and even
Speaker 1: just this little bounce was enough to push it back up.
Speaker 1: It's at about plus eight percent now, same as Bitcoin.
Speaker 1: But it's long term. Even with this like early January rally,
Speaker 1: like the long term trend for XRP still has left
Speaker 1: a lot of meat on the bone, so to speak,
Speaker 1: because of the fact that it's down. Yeah, the price
Speaker 1: is down forty percent if you go back to July
Speaker 1: twenty second or so when it had that top. So
Speaker 1: the six month decline in price means that the long
Speaker 1: term average returns are at minus twelve percent, Meaning if
Speaker 1: you were to jump into XRP and your plan is
Speaker 1: to hang on for like a year or more, the
Speaker 1: metrics justify that the risk of that is pretty low.
Speaker 1: Though not a bad setup for XRP. Here after this
Speaker 1: cool down from last week and the big cool down
Speaker 1: from the past six seven months or so.
Speaker 3: Very interesting. Okay, so how about we look at Solana sentiment.
Speaker 1: Solana sentiment has stayed pretty low. It's kind of the
Speaker 1: opposite of XRP. Actually, it looks like it's been more
Speaker 1: FUDD than FOMO the last week or so. There was
Speaker 1: one big spike and I'm yeah, this is January sixth,
Speaker 1: so that was the day Morgan Stanley had that big
Speaker 1: exciting announcement about their.
Speaker 2: You know, intention to have an EAT.
Speaker 1: I think they filed that day and people got very
Speaker 1: excited with one of the largest American financial institutions thrown
Speaker 1: their hat into the ring. But that of course created
Speaker 1: a top, as sentiment often will predict. Then we see
Speaker 1: a big FUD spike here on January eleventh, and it's
Speaker 1: been rallying a little bit ever since. Price is it
Speaker 1: looks like, yeah, it got up to about one forty
Speaker 1: six earlier today and that's the highest we've seen going
Speaker 1: all the way back to November thirteenth. So it's at
Speaker 1: a two month high, just like Bitcoin just hit a
Speaker 1: two month high. But sentiment is staying pretty low, just
Speaker 1: like bitcoin. So I like Solana's sentiments set up here
Speaker 1: for a further climb if Bitcoin can carry all coins
Speaker 1: out along with it.
Speaker 3: Mm, yeah, good stuff. I'm trying to think of there's
Speaker 3: any other data points that we usually look at. I
Speaker 3: think that might be it. It looks like you got
Speaker 3: some trending words here.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I was just gonna check out briefly what some of
Speaker 1: the big stories and narratives have been from the last
Speaker 1: couple of days, and just looking at this without getting
Speaker 1: into the details.
Speaker 2: We've got some bullish hype narratives that are kind of
Speaker 2: forming right now.
Speaker 1: Bullish momentum rising, BTC nears one hundred k, momentum driven
Speaker 1: snipers little. We'd have to look into what that really means.
Speaker 1: BSc Wallace purchase, Monaro, Privacy surch We didn't talk about Monaro,
Speaker 1: but it hid an all time high near seven hundred dollars,
Speaker 1: and privacy coins in general continue to be big standouts
Speaker 1: outside of z cash, which has been demolished due to
Speaker 1: a lot of the news about the development team getting
Speaker 1: shaken up and a lot of them leaving. I know
Speaker 1: they do still have development, but the uncertainty surrounding that
Speaker 1: particular coin is still you know, very shaky, and I
Speaker 1: think Manaro has benefited because of that. There's also the
Speaker 1: larger privacy coin narrative that's floating around.
Speaker 3: I don't know if you've heard that. And so it
Speaker 3: started with z cash, where z cash had the big
Speaker 3: run up, and now it's like Monaro's turn. So I
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if like Dash and the other ones
Speaker 3: start rallying eventually.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean Dash has Dash actually just had
Speaker 1: a huge run itself. I'm just looking at the word
Speaker 1: privacy coin. Maybe I can include the word coin in it,
Speaker 1: and we can see how much the social narratives have
Speaker 1: been going up over the topic in general.
Speaker 2: Not that much.
Speaker 1: I expected more, but yeah, if we looked at just XMR,
Speaker 1: look at that, I mean, just a huge run in
Speaker 1: the last four days.
Speaker 2: That's a lot more than I thought. Actually, it's up up.
Speaker 1: To about seven seventy now, so it's been making new
Speaker 1: all time highs consistently the last few days. And then
Speaker 1: here's Dash doing something very similar.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 1: I think this is kind of like a regardless of
Speaker 1: just like the regular cycles of different privacy coins.
Speaker 2: I think z Cash's a lot of its profits from
Speaker 2: traders have been moved into.
Speaker 1: Manaro and dash as a result of the development news.
Speaker 3: So can we take a look at this sentiment from Minaro.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's getting up there.
Speaker 1: This is the second largest bullish day we've had in
Speaker 1: the last month. I would expect that a lot of
Speaker 1: this is almost all of it is going to be
Speaker 1: directly due to the price, right yeah, performance. You know,
Speaker 1: people are going to care maybe secondarily about the actual
Speaker 1: news and what manual is working on, but the average
Speaker 1: trader is mostly just paying attention to price, and social
Speaker 1: dominance isn't really showing anything too special right now. But
Speaker 1: for those people who are talking about Monaro, bullishness has
Speaker 1: started to take over. So there's a little bit of
Speaker 1: a fomo risk there. And then dash ash is getting
Speaker 1: a lot more attention relative to its normal rate of talk.
Speaker 1: Not quite to the level of fomo that you might expect,
Speaker 1: but don't be surprised. You know, if it gets toward
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars in the next day or two, both
Speaker 1: social dominance and bullishness will really start to get to
Speaker 1: like way up here.
Speaker 3: Wow, very very interesting, Brian. I am looking forward to
Speaker 3: our next meeting because you know, we're looking at the
Speaker 3: data and what the whales are doing and how the
Speaker 3: market's moving. And I'm really curious, you know where that
Speaker 3: takes us because so far to data showing this is
Speaker 3: a legit rally, So it's going to be an exciting month,
Speaker 3: it seems like. But no guarantees, of course.
Speaker 1: Yeah, based on probably our last three months of calls,
Speaker 1: this is by far the best news I've been able
Speaker 1: to report based on what the data is showing. So again,
Speaker 1: no guarantees of anything happening. But as in terms of
Speaker 1: like which rallies are legit and which ones are kind
Speaker 1: of like fake bull traps, this one's veering more toward
Speaker 1: the former.
Speaker 3: Right now, Oh for sure. And folks, if you want
Speaker 3: to learn more about this data and run through it yourself,
Speaker 3: check out the link to Sentiment's website in the description
Speaker 3: go sign up, Brian, you can sign up and get
Speaker 3: a free version right and get some of the data.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got two free weeks to just explore all
Speaker 1: of the real time data that we showed here today.
Speaker 1: And after those two weeks you can decide whether you
Speaker 1: want to be a member or you stick to just
Speaker 1: browsing the free stuff on our site.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, And like I said, I almost refreshed
Speaker 3: that whale data sentiment accumulation chart every day, and I
Speaker 3: of course look at the MVRV for a bitcoin, so
Speaker 3: it's really helpful and to get an idea what's happening
Speaker 3: in the market. And you know, sometimes you look at
Speaker 3: crypto Twitter or different social platforms and there's a lot
Speaker 3: of noise, and the data really helps to filter through
Speaker 3: is this legit? All these people getting excited about something
Speaker 3: they shouldn't be And it's really a great like reflective.
Speaker 3: I don't know how to articulate it, but it just
Speaker 3: allows me to reflect on what's happening and bring it
Speaker 3: back to the data.
Speaker 2: Great point.
Speaker 1: And one thing I wanted to mention about crypto Twitter
Speaker 1: and slash x that's been going on. I'm sure you've
Speaker 1: seen Tony all the talk about the algos and how
Speaker 1: things are less visible, and I want to encourage everyone watching,
Speaker 1: whether it's Santaman's channel, Thinking Crypto's channel, or anyone else
Speaker 1: that you really trust and enjoy absorbing content on the
Speaker 1: notification bell appears to make a huge difference and whether
Speaker 1: people actually see the content that we're putting out there.
Speaker 1: And I used to kind of think of the bell
Speaker 1: as kind of novelty, like you're going to see it
Speaker 1: in the algorithm anyways.
Speaker 2: But it's actually made a difference for.
Speaker 1: Us too with some of the trusted people that we
Speaker 1: get information from and get inspiration for doing research. So
Speaker 1: hit those bells on any of our channels or others
Speaker 1: that you just trust, and it seems to make a
Speaker 1: huge difference during this time of uncertainty and not knowing
Speaker 1: what the hell is going to happen next.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, great point. All right, Brian, thank you
Speaker 3: so much, And like I said, I'm looking forward to
Speaker 3: our next one. So let's see how the price moves,
Speaker 3: how the market reacts, and much more.
Speaker 2: I'm excited. Talk soon, Tony.