Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex here, sitting down with you on July
Speaker 1: twenty seven, twenty twenty six. By the end of this episode,
Speaker 1: you'll see why the quiet market right now might actually
Speaker 1: be hiding some real risk. And if you've been refreshing
Speaker 1: your portfolio all weekend wondering why nothing's moving today, we'll
Speaker 1: sort that out together. But first, a quick word from
Speaker 1: our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening. Custody risks are
Speaker 1: piling up ahead of the FED meeting. Bitcoin is holding
Speaker 1: steady near sixty five thousand dollars, and the Fear and
Speaker 1: Greed Index is sitting at thirty. We're definitely still in
Speaker 1: a bear market, but today was surprisingly calm. Bitcoin held
Speaker 1: near sixty five thousand dollars, Ethereum hovered around two thousand,
Speaker 1: and the total crypto market cap stayed right around two
Speaker 1: point three trillion. DeFi locked value ticked up a bit,
Speaker 1: but stable coins supply was basically flat, up a fraction
Speaker 1: of a percent in a day. Why this matters. It
Speaker 1: means liquidity is steady, not expanding. Without fresh cash coming in,
Speaker 1: rallies just don't have the fuel to run. The Fear
Speaker 1: and Greed index ticked up four points to thirty, so
Speaker 1: we're still firmly in fear territory. Finance Alpha Spotlight is
Speaker 1: the strongest narrative today, up only a little over seven days.
Speaker 1: Aud Era is the top coin in that sector, up
Speaker 1: about seventy four percent over seven days. Money is moving
Speaker 1: across sectors, not one pocket. On polymarket, the big question
Speaker 1: right now is whether Bitcoin will be above sixty six
Speaker 1: thousand dollars on July twenty seventh. The yes side is
Speaker 1: trading at about five percent, so the market is pretty
Speaker 1: much expecting and know the read would only flip if
Speaker 1: Bitcoin suddenly jumps above that line before midnight on some
Speaker 1: FED news. If you want alerts like this with the
Speaker 1: set up, risk and exit plan delivered as they happen,
Speaker 1: start a seven day free trial of token metrics Signal
Speaker 1: at tokenmetrics dot com. Prediction markets show where real money
Speaker 1: is actually betting. The biggest one today asks whether the
Speaker 1: FED will pause then cut across its next three meetings.
Speaker 1: Polymarket puts that at about sixty percent. That's positioning, not prophecy.
Speaker 1: What would break that bet? A surprise rate hike or
Speaker 1: a hold would completely change the game. Traders are leaning
Speaker 1: toward cuts while options desks are shedding their hedges, which
Speaker 1: is a tell will definitely keep an eye on. Let's
Speaker 1: walk through the biggest stories. First, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
Speaker 1: says Base just topped one hundred million AI payments. That's
Speaker 1: machine driven transactions, not humans clicking buy. He's betting that
Speaker 1: software becomes the next big wave of crypto users. If
Speaker 1: your strategy relies on retail logins, that's a major shift
Speaker 1: the confirmation. If Base AI payment count doubles in thirty days,
Speaker 1: infrastructure tokens get a real use case. If it's stall,
Speaker 1: it's just conference talk. Next, a payment's firm called Triple
Speaker 1: A is seeing hot wallet losses climbed to twelve million
Speaker 1: dollars as new deposits keep getting swept. A wallet is
Speaker 1: bleeding while users still send funds. That's the crypto version
Speaker 1: of a leaky boat, where passengers keep boarding. Custody risk
Speaker 1: is back on the table during this bear market watch.
Speaker 1: If they pause deposits within forty eight hours, that's containment.
Speaker 1: If deposits keep flowing, users aren't watching. Bitmarke withdrawals are
Speaker 1: slowing down after announcing it's winding down. The nine year
Speaker 1: old exchange joins the graveyard. Slow withdrawals are the canary
Speaker 1: in the coal mine. Liquidity is leaving, not locking in.
Speaker 1: When platforms exit, retail gets pushed to self custody. Whether
Speaker 1: you're ready or not, expect a token dump if withdrawal
Speaker 1: times past seven days. If they normalize, it's an orderly exit.
Speaker 1: Storeage A token fell twenty percent as the firm filed
Speaker 1: for Chapter eleven bankruptcy. Decentralized storage just had its Leman
Speaker 1: moment bankruptcy amit a crypto shutdown wave shows bear markets
Speaker 1: kill weak infrastructure, not all decentralized equals durable. If network
Speaker 1: value locked drops another twenty percent this week, the protocol
Speaker 1: is shrinking if it holds, users shrug off the corporate shell. Finally,
Speaker 1: Armstrong is knocking crypto startups that rebrand to AI. He
Speaker 1: says chasing AI labels without substance is lazy. It's a
Speaker 1: rare call out from the biggest exchange. Narrative tourism hurts
Speaker 1: the space. The real AI crypto work is happening on base,
Speaker 1: not in press releases. If AI token listings outpace real
Speaker 1: product launches, the gap widens. If builders ship, the rebrand
Speaker 1: noise fades all right, before we get into the risks,
Speaker 1: quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back. Let's talk
Speaker 1: about what to watch for. Let's break down the risks
Speaker 1: you should actually care about. First, options traders are dropping
Speaker 1: their hedges while fear and greed sits at thirty. That's
Speaker 1: complacency before the Fed, A market betting on calm into
Speaker 1: a key rate decision, which means if the Fed surprises,
Speaker 1: US prices could swing hard. Second, stable coin supply is flat,
Speaker 1: up a fraction of a percent in a day and
Speaker 1: down slightly on the week. Liquidity isn't expanding, so rallies
Speaker 1: lack fresh fuel in a bear market. The takeaway is
Speaker 1: that buyers are picky because liquidity is flat and sentiment
Speaker 1: has not reset from fear. That changes. If stable coin
Speaker 1: supply jumps one percent in a week and Bitcoin holds
Speaker 1: above sixty five thousand dollars into the FED looking ahead,
Speaker 1: the FED rate decision hits Wednesday, July twenty ninth, A
Speaker 1: surprise could reset risk appetite, and options hedges are already light,
Speaker 1: so crypto moves fast. Second, Robinhood is talking to add
Speaker 1: crypto dot com prediction markets as its rivalry with Calshe's sharpens.
Speaker 1: That signals a retail engagement shift during low volatility. Third,
Speaker 1: US debt concerns are lifting the bitcoin narrative as a
Speaker 1: shelter play. Watch if flows confirm the story this week.
Speaker 1: By the way, if you want the full written breakdown,
Speaker 1: check out our newsletter at tokenmetrics dot com. This is
Speaker 1: educational content, not investment advice. Always do your own research.
Speaker 1: I'm Alex. See you next time.