Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
Speaker 1: On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as
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Speaker 1: five star rating. Folks, We've got lots of big news
Speaker 1: to talk about, major updates with the crypto market structure, bill,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is dumping and much more. So you don't want
Speaker 1: to miss this. Make sure you watch and listen to
Speaker 1: the end. Okay, let's start with Bitcoin currently trading below
Speaker 1: eighty two thousand dollars. The exact price is eighty eight
Speaker 1: and eighty seven dollars, so this should come as no surprise, folks.
Speaker 1: Over the past three to four weeks, I've been sharing
Speaker 1: the wyke Off accumulation chart and the model that's been
Speaker 1: shared by user Marti Party on x and we've been
Speaker 1: talking about this thing could go lower. We could see
Speaker 1: a double bottom where we're retesting the lows from November,
Speaker 1: and it looks like that's what's setting up here. And
Speaker 1: the confirmation behind that is that bitcoin is in the
Speaker 1: oversl zone. The artist sign the daily chart is at thirty.
Speaker 1: In addition, we've been looking at the bitcoin to gold
Speaker 1: ratio chart and that is bottoming out. Not to mention,
Speaker 1: the two year rolling mvrv Z score is the lowest
Speaker 1: it has ever been, lower than twenty twenty two with
Speaker 1: the FTX crash. So you're seeing some incredible bottoming signals here.
Speaker 1: There's fear sentiment in the market, yet you have bullish
Speaker 1: catalysts out there, such as the crypto market, structure, bill
Speaker 1: and much more. So I believe a bounce is coming,
Speaker 1: you know, following that why coof accumulation model. The big
Speaker 1: question I've been sharing with you all the two scenarios
Speaker 1: is this simply a move to one hundred and four
Speaker 1: hundred and five thousand dollars then we roll over and
Speaker 1: go into a bear market low or the continuation of
Speaker 1: the bull market where we have that blow off top.
Speaker 1: Now there are a lot of bear signals on the
Speaker 1: charts right, but there are also some bullish. The macro
Speaker 1: is definitely bullish because we're in quantitative easing, liquidity is rising.
Speaker 1: Other assets like precious metals, the stock market a much
Speaker 1: more are moving. But crypto seems stuck. So this is
Speaker 1: where I believe crypto will catch up. I believe there
Speaker 1: will be a rotation away from gold. And if you
Speaker 1: look at goals chart, this is just the data now.
Speaker 1: It has gone parabolic. It is extremely overbought. This is
Speaker 1: per the charts now, so we could see a very
Speaker 1: strong pullback. Now. Is that simply a local top that's
Speaker 1: going to form or the boloff top for gold? We
Speaker 1: don't know. We're gonna have to wait and see, because
Speaker 1: it has been going crazy. You got silver hitting new
Speaker 1: all time highs, even copper and palladium, all the metals
Speaker 1: are moving and I believe once they cool down, whether
Speaker 1: once again local top or boloff top, rotational liquidity to
Speaker 1: the stock market in crypto and the bull case or
Speaker 1: bitcoin is a move to one hundred and forty K
Speaker 1: and of course all coins will follow. This would be
Speaker 1: the ideal scenario. If you're simply an all coin holder,
Speaker 1: you want to see this right, But there's no guarantee
Speaker 1: it happens. So that's why I'm giving you multiple scenarios,
Speaker 1: and we're going to have to be patient and see
Speaker 1: how this all plays out. If people are not sharing
Speaker 1: multiple scenarios with you. They're doing a disservice to you.
Speaker 1: And if they are so adamant that they know what
Speaker 1: exactly is going to happen next, please ask them for
Speaker 1: the winning lottery numbers next week so we can go
Speaker 1: play the lottery and make money that way. Right, But
Speaker 1: at this point you can't definitively say this is a
Speaker 1: bull market or this is a bear market. It's kind
Speaker 1: of wait and see because the structure is still intact,
Speaker 1: and you know, as long as bitcoin holds these structures,
Speaker 1: then it can bounce and go to new highs. But again,
Speaker 1: this cycle has been different. You got a lot of
Speaker 1: different catalysts and headwinds and things that really threw us
Speaker 1: a curveball, like tariffs, right, the big dump that happened
Speaker 1: in the beginning of twenty twenty five, like Bitcoin hitting
Speaker 1: a new all time high before the having like bitcoin
Speaker 1: in its year after the having ending the year red
Speaker 1: when it usually in green. These are facts. They're not disputable.
Speaker 1: So we have to look at it with those things
Speaker 1: in mind and say, you know what, if those things
Speaker 1: are different, very different cycle, it could be that the
Speaker 1: bounce is coming to new highs or again just simply
Speaker 1: a retrace and we roll over into the lows and
Speaker 1: the other factor I shared and actually Brian from Santaman
Speaker 1: we did a video earlier this week where we talked
Speaker 1: about this bigcoin. Whales have been slowly accumulating, so similar
Speaker 1: pattern to what we've seen throughout this bullmarket and retail
Speaker 1: they were accumulating a lot, but now they're starting to
Speaker 1: slow down, and maybe this price pullback and maybe a
Speaker 1: pull down to seventy a k or whatever to test
Speaker 1: those loads in November is what drives retail down. They
Speaker 1: get into the fear mode while whales keep accumulating, and
Speaker 1: then we know what follows that massive pumps. So this
Speaker 1: is just the data. I'm just simply sharing the data
Speaker 1: here and I'm going to be doing a newsletter right
Speaker 1: up tomorrow, so make sure you subscribe to the newsletter
Speaker 1: where I put these charts and the data points in
Speaker 1: there so that you can review them directly. Guys. So
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to be patient and see how things
Speaker 1: play out. Here's what macro investor Ral Palell had to
Speaker 1: say regarding what's happening. He says everyone in cryptos now
Speaker 1: says we can't have nice things like NASDAC, gold, silver, copper,
Speaker 1: and em ripping higher. He shared a chart and said,
Speaker 1: this is the divergence versus the NASDAC it barely registers.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty had something similar. So the chart compares the
Speaker 1: Nasdaq one hundred versus Bitcoin, and they generally move in conjunction.
Speaker 1: Because the NASDAK covers tech right, Bitcoin obviously you can
Speaker 1: categorize it as a technology stock in a way. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying it is, just you can you make that
Speaker 1: correlation the closest thing in the stock market to it.
Speaker 1: So he's essentially saying the thesis has not changed. Just
Speaker 1: you have the broken four your cycle, and this thing
Speaker 1: is following liquidity, which is now starting to catch up.
Speaker 1: He also said the gap in Bitcoin versus the GMI
Speaker 1: global total liquidity barely right registers. But we saw similar
Speaker 1: in twenty fifteen and twenty twenty. There is nothing abnormal
Speaker 1: about this current disconnect. Liquidity is rising. All you require
Speaker 1: is patients and the market should catch up in time.
Speaker 1: So I tend to agree with this because it's backed
Speaker 1: by the data. Right. The liquidity again, I talked about
Speaker 1: doing qe M two for many of these major countries
Speaker 1: are rising Japan's doing stimulus and much more. So I
Speaker 1: do believe crypto will catch up, but I could be wrong.
Speaker 1: I have no problem in saying I'm wrong, because I'm
Speaker 1: also not saying, hey, I know definitely what's going to
Speaker 1: happen tomorrow and next come on. Right again, If I
Speaker 1: knew that, I would have a time machine or a
Speaker 1: crystal ball, and again I would go play the lottery.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be in the market investing. So I hope
Speaker 1: you guys understand I'm being very transparent and reasonable here,
Speaker 1: and that's what we have to be. And there are
Speaker 1: differences in this cycle. You can't just say, oh, it's
Speaker 1: just like twenty twenty two. It's just like twenty No,
Speaker 1: it's not. When did bitcoin hitting new all time high
Speaker 1: before they're having? Never did. When did bitcoin after the
Speaker 1: year after the having end the year in the red?
Speaker 1: It never did that, So things are different this time around.
Speaker 1: Now look at this. President Trump says he'll be announcing
Speaker 1: the new Federal Reserve chair tomorrow morning. So we saw
Speaker 1: on polymarket recently, Rick Ryder cio Blackrock was leading, but
Speaker 1: all of a sudden you have Kevin worsh He is
Speaker 1: now in the lead. And he spiked up to eighty
Speaker 1: eight percent per poly market. Now he is bitcoin and
Speaker 1: crypto friendly. Obviously it's not blackrock. But at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, whoever goes in there is gonna do
Speaker 1: Trump's bidding. Trump has a crypto agenda. Obviously, he wants
Speaker 1: rates lower, he wants money printing, he wants crypto to
Speaker 1: be in brak. So the end goal is still the
Speaker 1: same here. So let's see and let's see how the
Speaker 1: market reacts. It may not do anything tomorrow. It might
Speaker 1: dump even further because volatility comes anytime there's some sort
Speaker 1: of fed announcement and market makers left to play with
Speaker 1: people's emotions. So I would wait for the to settle
Speaker 1: to see how this pans out. And a big potential
Speaker 1: rod block has been removed. The Senate reached a spending
Speaker 1: deal to avoid a US government shutdown. This was something
Speaker 1: we were all concerned about. Would it further disrupt liquidity,
Speaker 1: would it delay the crypto market structure built? Well, this
Speaker 1: has been resolved, so this is a big headwind and
Speaker 1: roadblock out of the way. So I think this is bullish, right, folks,
Speaker 1: because we saw what happened in Q four where you
Speaker 1: had the big dump off the Trump announcement of China
Speaker 1: terrorists and all that which you rolled back, and of
Speaker 1: course the government shut down which delayed a lot of things,
Speaker 1: so this is very good. Things are looking like they're
Speaker 1: setting up nicely here with the market bottoming out soon
Speaker 1: and all that and then start moving and I believe
Speaker 1: a ton a ton of bitcoin options expire tomorrow, so
Speaker 1: all these things could be very good, folks. This episode
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Speaker 1: we got a big win today for the CLARITIAC. So
Speaker 1: the Senate Agriculture Committee passed its portion of the CLARITIAC
Speaker 1: out of the committee twelve to eleven party line vote,
Speaker 1: with no Democrats voting in favor, so a couple of Definitely,
Speaker 1: we're seeing progress. Right. The sausage making process is ugly,
Speaker 1: but it is what it is. This is how it happens.
Speaker 1: The Democrats really did not vote for this because of
Speaker 1: the Trump conflict of interest items. I don't know how
Speaker 1: that will affect future votes and other committees within the Senate.
Speaker 1: We're going to have to wait and see. But it's
Speaker 1: great that this bill is moving forward. So we are
Speaker 1: seeing progress here, which is very very good. Now a
Speaker 1: bunch of the folks in the industry weigh in on this,
Speaker 1: and I want to share what they have to say.
Speaker 1: So White House cryptos are David Sachs said, with today's
Speaker 1: vote to advance crypto market structure legislation out the Senate
Speaker 1: Agriculture Committee. We are one step closer to establishing the
Speaker 1: necessary regulatory framework to make the United States the crypto
Speaker 1: capital of the world. Thank you to Chairman John Boozman
Speaker 1: as well as his staff for their leadership throughout this process.
Speaker 1: While the vote was partisan, a number of Democrat members
Speaker 1: stated their commitment to passing this important legislation. We will
Speaker 1: continue to work with them on a bypart and basis
Speaker 1: to achieve that goal. So again, things are moving ahead
Speaker 1: nicely here and this is what we want to see.
Speaker 1: So Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, said, really important step
Speaker 1: forward today on market structure legislation with the Senate Agriculture
Speaker 1: Committee passing its portion of the bill. Thanks to Chairman
Speaker 1: John Boozman for his leadership or your leadership, Senator Corey
Speaker 1: Booker for ultimately helping America to get comprehensive bipartisan crypto
Speaker 1: bill across the finish line. Now. Ripples CEO Brad garling
Speaker 1: House also waited in saying the last couple of weeks
Speaker 1: have been an absolute firestorm of action to get the
Speaker 1: Market Structure bill passed. While the US Senate Banking Committee
Speaker 1: clears its logjam. Thank you to Senator Tim Scott. Congrats
Speaker 1: are in order to Senate Agriculture GOP Chairman John Boozman
Speaker 1: for advancing the Senate Agriculture Committee's Market Structure Bill out
Speaker 1: of the committee today. He says, as I've said before,
Speaker 1: clarity is better than chaos. The legislative process can be
Speaker 1: messy and complex, but it's one hundred percent necessary to
Speaker 1: have clarity for this and future generations of crypto entrepreneurs, builders,
Speaker 1: and users as this technology becomes increasingly ingrained into our
Speaker 1: global financial infrastructure. So guys, things are looking good. It
Speaker 1: looks like this built with no government shut down happening,
Speaker 1: could definitely get passed by the end of Q one
Speaker 1: and the March obviously, right, So very very good. Now,
Speaker 1: there is a lot happening on the SEC and CFTC front.
Speaker 1: So today SEC Chair Paul Atkins and new CFDC chair
Speaker 1: Mike sea Leg held a joint event where they talked
Speaker 1: about working together on crypto and they have or they
Speaker 1: said they are expecting to sign an agreement on crypto oversight.
Speaker 1: So here's what Mike sea Leg tweeted out. He says,
Speaker 1: I'm pleased to announce that the CFDC is partnering with
Speaker 1: the SEC on Project Crypto, bringing coordination, coherence, and unified
Speaker 1: approach to the federal oversight of crypto asset markets. This
Speaker 1: is bullish. You got the two agencies, which you know,
Speaker 1: in a pass I've competed against each other, are working
Speaker 1: together to get legislation, get rules of the rod out.
Speaker 1: And you know, I recently interviewed Austin Campbell and I've
Speaker 1: had him on the pot. He's very, very, very smart guy.
Speaker 1: And in the interview one of the things he mentioned
Speaker 1: was it's not so much the Clarity Act that's important.
Speaker 1: While we do need it, it's not so much that
Speaker 1: that needs to get past. It's the SEC and CFDC
Speaker 1: need to provide rules because they're the regulatory agencies. They
Speaker 1: do the majority of the enforcing right, So even though
Speaker 1: you may have a bill, the SEC does not give
Speaker 1: you the details the fine point so to speed. Same
Speaker 1: thing with the CFTC. It's really gonna not help. So
Speaker 1: great to see things that are moving ahead here. And
Speaker 1: in addition, they were both Mike Selak and Paul Atkins
Speaker 1: on CNBC to talk about crypto and one of the
Speaker 1: things that Paul Atkins said he says now is the
Speaker 1: right time to open up the twelve point five trillion
Speaker 1: dollars four one k retirement market to crypto. So this
Speaker 1: could be another bullish catalyst. So he could be once
Speaker 1: the orchestructure bill passes, they right away do this because
Speaker 1: it seems like they have it ready on deck, and
Speaker 1: that brings in a ton of money into crypto, and
Speaker 1: that could be a big catalyst again that drives bitcoin
Speaker 1: and all coins to a blow off top to new highs. Again,
Speaker 1: not guaranteed. I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm
Speaker 1: sharing you with the facts that are happening here and
Speaker 1: the potential scenarios that could play out. So this could
Speaker 1: be very, very bullish. We're gonna have to wait and see.
Speaker 1: We're gonna monitor the charts, We're gonna monitor the unchained data.
Speaker 1: We're gonna monitor the macro with legislation, liquidity and all
Speaker 1: these things, you know, opening up of major capital coming
Speaker 1: in from four to one k's and all that. So
Speaker 1: we're gonna monitor all these things guys as we continue.
Speaker 1: So make sure you are subscribed if you haven't as yet,
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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for tuning in. I appreciate you all, folks,
Speaker 1: and I'll talk to you all later.