WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan is testing its defenses this week as it launches

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<v Speaker 1>its biggest annual military exercises. The Han Kwang Military Exercises

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<v Speaker 1>involves troops on the strategically important pengu Islands rehearsing ways

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<v Speaker 1>of using tanks, artillery, and anti aircraft guns to repel

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<v Speaker 1>a Chinese assault. Reservists are also taking part as Taiwan

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<v Speaker 1>seeks to increase the realism of its wartime preparations for

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<v Speaker 1>the first time, authorities are deliberately slowing mobile internet and

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<v Speaker 1>parts of the island to test how people would cope

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<v Speaker 1>if communications were disrupted during a conflict. Will the drills

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<v Speaker 1>come As Taiwan pushes ahead with a new strategy built

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<v Speaker 1>around drones, unmanned attack boats, and mobile missile units. The

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<v Speaker 1>aim is to make any Chinese invasions so difficult and

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<v Speaker 1>costly that Beijing would be deterred from trying. A concept

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<v Speaker 1>to US military planets have described as creating a hellscape

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<v Speaker 1>around the island. Stacy Petty john fellow and direction of

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<v Speaker 1>the Defense Program at the Center for a New American

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<v Speaker 1>Security that's an independent Washington based national security think tank.

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<v Speaker 1>She co authored a report on Taiwan's drone defense strategy

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<v Speaker 1>this year. Welcome to DW This hellscape idea sounds relatively simple.

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<v Speaker 1>Throw huge numbers of cheap mobile drones in the path

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<v Speaker 1>of the bigger invading force. Is it that simple?

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<v Speaker 2>Not quite that simple, but it does end up being

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<v Speaker 2>simpler than the type of amphibious assault that Chinese forces

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<v Speaker 2>would have to undertake to attack the island, which is

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<v Speaker 2>one of its strengths. It really does rely on using

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<v Speaker 2>lots of small mobile units with cheap drones, air drones,

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<v Speaker 2>sea drones, under sea drones, and trying to attrit an

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<v Speaker 2>invasion force before they actually reached Taiwan shores.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so not so much repelling an invasion as is

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<v Speaker 1>trying to stop it before it actually gets started for

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<v Speaker 1>years time.

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<v Speaker 2>Sorry, go on, no, it makes I mean, the point

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<v Speaker 2>at which the Chinese are the most vulnerable is when

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<v Speaker 2>they're on the ocean and they're visible. They have to

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<v Speaker 2>approach Taiwan and concentrate their forces, and there are a

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<v Speaker 2>limited number of beaches that are really favorable for a

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<v Speaker 2>amphibious landing, and so that gives Taiwan the advantage that

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<v Speaker 2>they can leverage with their geography along with these multi

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<v Speaker 2>domain drones to get them when they are exposed.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, this is all very sneaky. Let's talk about asymmetry

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<v Speaker 1>because we've seen many of the lessons of this what

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<v Speaker 1>they're calling asymmetric warfare, where a smaller, apparently weaker country

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<v Speaker 1>finds itself able to defend itself or indeed resist a

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<v Speaker 1>larger military force. We've seen this play out in Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>and Iran. I guess are there lessons being learned from

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<v Speaker 1>these conflicts?

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely.

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<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of the lessons from Ukraine apply

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<v Speaker 2>directly to Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 3>Obviously, the geography is a little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>Different, and it's a maritime theater, and you're worrying about

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<v Speaker 2>China having to cross that straight and move a huge

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<v Speaker 2>number of forces.

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<v Speaker 3>But the idea of using small drones.

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<v Speaker 2>To go after larger forces that have big weapons platforms,

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<v Speaker 2>big ships, aircraft and tanks that are very visible is

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<v Speaker 2>one that is directly applicable. I think it's also important

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<v Speaker 2>to note that drones alone aren't.

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<v Speaker 3>Sufficient to achieve this.

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<v Speaker 2>You need to use drones in concert with more traditional

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<v Speaker 2>weapons like higher end missiles, artillery as well as mines.

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<v Speaker 2>Limiting the mobility of your adversary is something that.

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<v Speaker 3>Has worked well for both Ukraine and Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>They use a lot of mindes on the ground, but

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<v Speaker 2>you can use c minds in the case of Taiwan

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<v Speaker 2>and then also mine the beaches to make it hard

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<v Speaker 2>and to slow down the movement of any Chinese forces,

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<v Speaker 2>which then gives you more opportunities to use aerial drones

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<v Speaker 2>and drone boats to attack them.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, But of course China will also have been watching

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on in Ukraine and Iran, So how much

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<v Speaker 1>will Beijing's offensive playbook have been rewritten because of this technology.

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<v Speaker 2>China's very much observing what's going on and trying to

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<v Speaker 2>learn from it, and I would imagine receiving pretty direct

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<v Speaker 2>feedback from the Russians given some of the assistance that

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<v Speaker 2>they've provided. And I would expect that China is going

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<v Speaker 2>to also be looking at employing drones. We've seen in

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<v Speaker 2>a recent military parade that they also had a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of counterdrone technology. But there's a difference between actually employing

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<v Speaker 2>these new capabilities and doing so in a way when

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<v Speaker 2>you're undertaking a massive operation that is joined and that

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<v Speaker 2>is truly one of the most complex things that any

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<v Speaker 2>military can do.

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<v Speaker 3>That's an amphibious assault, So while I believe.

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<v Speaker 2>They certainly are learning and will adapt and continue to adapt,

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<v Speaker 2>there is no perfect solution that will be durable for

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<v Speaker 2>a long time, because everyone learns and changes in response

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<v Speaker 2>to what they see their adversary doing and what works

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<v Speaker 2>in other places in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And is there a danger, certainly from the likes of

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<v Speaker 1>me looking on and looking at this from the outside,

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<v Speaker 1>is there a danger of becoming too fixated on the technology?

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<v Speaker 1>Does the effective deployment of this new kit, does it

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<v Speaker 1>demand the sort of shift in thinking and philosophy it does?

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<v Speaker 2>The technology by itself is not at all the solution,

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<v Speaker 2>and there when you ask me in the beginning, is

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<v Speaker 2>as simple as using drones.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, using drones.

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<v Speaker 2>Effectively is not actually that simple, And that is one

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<v Speaker 2>of the big takeaways that the Taiwanese should be learning

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<v Speaker 2>from what is going on in Ukraine. Ukraine spends a

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<v Speaker 2>tremendous amount of time training its drone force and giving

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<v Speaker 2>it real world operational experience, and that is something that will.

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<v Speaker 3>Be hard to develop in peace time, and.

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<v Speaker 2>The Taiwanese are going to need to do that. So

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<v Speaker 2>this involves lots of training and actually keeping people in

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<v Speaker 2>the military long enough that they develop deep enough of

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<v Speaker 2>expertise and become skilled enough at these systems and employing

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<v Speaker 2>them with other weapons at the same time operating a

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<v Speaker 2>small independent units, which typically right now the Taiwanese military

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<v Speaker 2>does not do, and then this probably would portend some

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<v Speaker 2>changes for the organization of the military. The traditional formations

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<v Speaker 2>that they have right now are typical military structures that

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<v Speaker 2>are designed around large platforms, whether they be tanks, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>fighter aircraft, ships, and most of those weapons are going

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<v Speaker 2>to struggle to survive in the first phase of China

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<v Speaker 2>were to attack, because they would begin with a huge

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<v Speaker 2>bombardment of the island and would likely be able to

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<v Speaker 2>find these bigger weapons that are easy to see.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so we have a world that has now woken

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<v Speaker 1>up to the potential of this cheaper, more nimble method

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<v Speaker 1>of warfare, and so of course now there is a

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<v Speaker 1>scramble to get hold of the necessary technologies. For example,

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan says it wants more than two hundred and ten

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<v Speaker 1>thousand airborne and maritime drones. Are they going to be

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<v Speaker 1>bottlenecks in supply?

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<v Speaker 2>There will be a lot of bottlenecks, and they're not

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<v Speaker 2>going to be as cheap as they want them to be,

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<v Speaker 2>because they're not going to be wanting to rely on

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese parts and components. And there are some sectors that

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<v Speaker 2>China really dominates it. Obviously, DGI and ATL are two

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<v Speaker 2>of the biggest drone companies worldwide commercially, but China dominates

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<v Speaker 2>other sectors like brushless motors that are really important, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's going to be important for Taiwan to

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<v Speaker 2>find like minded countries where they can pull their demand

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<v Speaker 2>and begin to drive down the price of some of

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<v Speaker 2>these subcomponents, to establish trusted supply chains instead of Chinese ones.

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<v Speaker 2>But Taiwan also actually needs to pass the full budget.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the striking things recently in politics is that

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<v Speaker 2>with the big special defense budget under consideration, it has

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<v Speaker 2>funded the purchase of American drones. But one of the

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<v Speaker 2>areas that the opposition parties rejected was funding the domestic

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<v Speaker 2>Taiwanese industry.

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<v Speaker 3>Which they really need to build up.

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<v Speaker 2>And there's an opportunity there for them to do so

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<v Speaker 2>because they have the labor, they have the knowledge that

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<v Speaker 2>they could build this up relatively easy, unlike some other

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<v Speaker 2>weapons like submarines, where it's really difficult to scale production

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<v Speaker 2>of something that complicated.

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<v Speaker 1>And is it the United States that is the obvious

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<v Speaker 1>first port of call when you're looking to buy this

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<v Speaker 1>technology if it's not China.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, the US doesn't actually have a robust small

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<v Speaker 2>drone industry right now, it's trying to develop one itself.

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<v Speaker 2>So I know Taiwan has been selling some of the

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<v Speaker 2>drones and manufacturers and entered into some cooperative agreements with

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<v Speaker 2>some countries in Eastern Europe that are very much interested

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<v Speaker 2>in acquiring this technology themselves and providing it to the Ukrainians.

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<v Speaker 2>The US hopefully will begin to improve its own drone

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<v Speaker 2>industry and therefore it would be a natural partner. But

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<v Speaker 2>right now the US is in somewhat of the same

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<v Speaker 2>boat as Taiwan, and it remains to be seen whether

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<v Speaker 2>the Trump administration's drone dominance initiative will result in the

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<v Speaker 2>type of drone industrial ecosystem that the US really needs.

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<v Speaker 1>So if we end where we started, could a hellscaped

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan realistically stop a Chinese invasion without direct US military intervention?

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<v Speaker 3>I believe that it could.

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<v Speaker 2>When you look at an amphibious assault, it is so

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<v Speaker 2>so hard to do, and it relies on really meticulous

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<v Speaker 2>planning and timing of a large number of forces over

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<v Speaker 2>a huge area, and to get enough troops ashore that

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<v Speaker 2>you can establish a lodgment and then you have to

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<v Speaker 2>move on. All of those factors really are stacked in

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<v Speaker 2>Taiwan's favor, plus its geography of its narrow beaches, its

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<v Speaker 2>limited number of beaches, and then mountainous terrain. I think

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<v Speaker 2>that if Taiwan were to wholeheartedly embrace this change its

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<v Speaker 2>force structure so that it's designed around executing this type

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<v Speaker 2>of concept, train its forces, and acquire this technology, that

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<v Speaker 2>it would be possible. It's enough to make any Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>leader think long and hard about whether they can really

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<v Speaker 2>actually successfully invade the island.

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<v Speaker 1>Good talking, do you? Thanks for talking us through that

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<v Speaker 1>so clearly, Stacy Petty John from the Center for a

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<v Speaker 1>New American Security, Thanks for having me