Speaker 1: You know, there was an initial run up right when
Speaker 1: the FED cut their rates, and then the crowd caught
Speaker 1: up to the news right there, literally right at the
Speaker 1: top for bitcoin and the S and P, and then
Speaker 1: we see a downturn and then they started to get
Speaker 1: a little bit hesitant. And obviously we've been going back
Speaker 1: up ever since. But right now is the time where
Speaker 1: you start to see whether people mention, you know, those
Speaker 1: round numbers between seventy to seventy nine k a lot,
Speaker 1: or if people get fearful that we might we might
Speaker 1: go back down to fifty to fifty nine k. Right now,
Speaker 1: both are quite low.
Speaker 2: Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast, your home for cryptocurrency
Speaker 2: news and interviews. With me today is Brian from Santaman.
Speaker 2: We're going to break down the different cryptometrics and stats
Speaker 2: about what's happening in the market. Brian, great to have
Speaker 2: you on.
Speaker 1: Good to be here, Tony. I think we've got a
Speaker 1: pretty substantial amount of things we can get into, and
Speaker 1: things are kind of celebratory and the markets for the
Speaker 1: first time in a long.
Speaker 2: Time, I think, yeah, Brian, I mean doing this a
Speaker 2: day after the FED announcement that they're cutting rates by
Speaker 2: fifty basis points. Bitcoin is back over sixty three thousand dollars.
Speaker 2: Definitely want to look at the data, and that's where
Speaker 2: you come in. So maybe we can start with what's
Speaker 2: the sentiment around the FED and the cuts and what
Speaker 2: are you hearing and seeing?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll show my screen here and we can dive
Speaker 1: right into these sentiment side. I'll lead things off just
Speaker 1: by showing the overall mentions of any words related to
Speaker 1: FED rate rates cut or inflation. And as you'd imagine,
Speaker 1: the amount of discussion related to an event that happened
Speaker 1: for the first time in four and a half years.
Speaker 1: The last time this happened was March fifteen to twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: So people are hyped and they're talking about it quite
Speaker 1: a bit because objectively, this should be a bullish event
Speaker 1: for crypto. It was interesting, right when the FED cut
Speaker 1: rates around eleven is am Pacific time yesterday, there was
Speaker 1: an initial run up followed by a huge drop off,
Speaker 1: and the stock markets actually ended down after they went
Speaker 1: up significantly to start. So that's actually quite typical when
Speaker 1: the crowd is anticipating something and the price is already
Speaker 1: a bit baked in. More so in the stock market
Speaker 1: than crypto, of course, but because it was already predicted
Speaker 1: to be like an eighty five percent likely outcome for
Speaker 1: the FED to cut rates, the prices had already been
Speaker 1: kind of creeping up. Bitcoin was already above sixty k
Speaker 1: at the time the announcement was made, the S and
Speaker 1: P was already at all time high levels, So the
Speaker 1: idea was there was a bit of a buy the
Speaker 1: rumor sell the news situation that I think was pretty
Speaker 1: short lived. By the time we went to bed here
Speaker 1: in the US, crypto is already starting to creep up,
Speaker 1: especially ald coins, which I'll get into in a moment.
Speaker 1: But the initial reaction appears to be a lot of hype,
Speaker 1: a little bit of confusion because yesterday was a bit
Speaker 1: of a fake out day. So that distrust I think
Speaker 1: is helping to fuel crypto higher right now, because retail
Speaker 1: traders haven't quite fomoed in just yet like you would expect.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And you mentioned the volatility, right Usually,
Speaker 2: I've noticed a pattern that any time there's an announcement
Speaker 2: a week of an FMC meeting or whatever it may be,
Speaker 2: there's tons of volatility. You can't really judge the market
Speaker 2: yet you kind of have to let things cool down.
Speaker 2: Maybe next week we get a clearer understanding. But bitcoin
Speaker 2: is starting to move. I don't know if this is
Speaker 2: a true breakout to a new all time high, or
Speaker 2: you know, it's making a lower high, so to speak,
Speaker 2: lower low on its way to finding the bottom.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's obviously it's really tough to predict. And if
Speaker 1: we knew the future, you know, we wouldn't even need jobs, right,
Speaker 1: So it's I think I just put out an article
Speaker 1: yesterday talking about how the crowd is likely going to
Speaker 1: dictate whether we do see an all time high as
Speaker 1: a quick reaction to this news. I basically just talk
Speaker 1: about how, you know, there was an initial run up
Speaker 1: right when the Fed cut their rates, and then the
Speaker 1: crowd caught up to the news right there, literally right
Speaker 1: at the top for bitcoin and the S and P,
Speaker 1: and then we see a downturn and then they started
Speaker 1: to get a little bit hesitant. And obviously we've been
Speaker 1: going back up ever since. But right now is the
Speaker 1: time where you start to see whether people mention you know,
Speaker 1: those round numbers between seventy to seventy nine K a lot,
Speaker 1: or if people get fearful that we might we might
Speaker 1: go back down to fifty to fifty nine K right now,
Speaker 1: both are quite low, and everyone's celebrating the sixty to
Speaker 1: sixty nine K level. Of course, the mentions toward these
Speaker 1: numbers are up because we're now in them, right But
Speaker 1: when you start to see mentions of lower numbers than
Speaker 1: where we currently are, or higher numbers from where we
Speaker 1: currently are, that's where you start to see perfect tops
Speaker 1: or perfect bottoms like we see here while I highlight
Speaker 1: seventy to seventy nine Look at these past six months
Speaker 1: and how these spikes align with that faded green line
Speaker 1: going down right after those spikes happened. Or alternatively, you
Speaker 1: see how much bottoms correlated with these fifty to fifty
Speaker 1: nine K mentioned spikes. So that's probably the most important
Speaker 1: chart I'm going to be looking at over the next
Speaker 1: few weeks to see when people start to lean one
Speaker 1: way or another or anticipate those the potential all time
Speaker 1: highs or a potential retrace.
Speaker 2: Now, from a social mentioned standpoint, you know, how are
Speaker 2: people feeling? Are you seeing more positive signs or I
Speaker 2: guess maybe is it the social dominance chart? I can't
Speaker 2: remember which one it is that we're sentiment?
Speaker 1: Okay, So This is I think we talked about it
Speaker 1: maybe once or twice before, but it's kind of a
Speaker 1: custom metric that I made which solely looks at the
Speaker 1: amount of positive sentiment keywords out there versus negative sentiment
Speaker 1: keywords or just overall posts. So our algorithm is able
Speaker 1: to differentiate if someone's saying I'm bullish, I'm buying versus
Speaker 1: I think bitcoin is going to go lower, I'm not
Speaker 1: going to buy thro forty k stuff like that. So
Speaker 1: we put all of those together and we make a
Speaker 1: ratio of all the positive comments versus all the negative
Speaker 1: comments throughout Twitter, slash x, Reddit, Telegram, four Chan, and
Speaker 1: even bitcoin talk. And this is showing there's three big
Speaker 1: spikes that we've seen in the past three months. This
Speaker 1: is a super negative one that happened on July fourth, right,
Speaker 1: I want to say before or after I think it
Speaker 1: was before the Trump assassination attempt, and then we went
Speaker 1: on this huge surge. Then we see this huge positive
Speaker 1: spike right before about twenty four hours before the top,
Speaker 1: as people were anticipating a new all time high here,
Speaker 1: and then we go way down, and then we go
Speaker 1: super negative again back on August fourth, which was right
Speaker 1: at the bottom. So these negative spikes here the only
Speaker 1: two times where we were actually seeing a higher ratio
Speaker 1: of negative comments than positive comments. They were literally the
Speaker 1: perfect times to buy. This was literally the perfect time
Speaker 1: to sell. It's not always going to be that clear cut,
Speaker 1: but I didn't fluff the numbers in anyway. This is
Speaker 1: just the last three months of this ratio and how
Speaker 1: it's how it's dictating where prices go next. So people
Speaker 1: who think, oh, it's only whales that are controlling the markets, No,
Speaker 1: there's two elements. It's the whales on one side that
Speaker 1: are accumulating, accumulating or dumping at any time, versus the
Speaker 1: retail average joe traders who are constantly getting it wrong
Speaker 1: and giving you perfect counter trading signals at any given.
Speaker 2: Time, great insights. Speaking of whales, what have they been
Speaker 2: doing from an accumulation standpoint? Are they still buying?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's looking really good to be honest, Just
Speaker 1: in the past three months, going back to June eighteenth,
Speaker 1: they were holding sixteen point sixteen million bitcoin in total.
Speaker 1: Then they're up to sixteen point one eight million now.
Speaker 1: To be precise, they've accumulated about twenty two three hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty six btc over the past three months. If
Speaker 1: we go back a full year, I'm gonna update this
Speaker 1: axis so it isn't off the screen. So this is
Speaker 1: what it I like going back a full year, They've
Speaker 1: added if we just account for any wall, if that
Speaker 1: holds ten or more btc two hundred and forty and
Speaker 1: seventy bitcoin during that time, and they're not showing signs
Speaker 1: of slowing down as we showed the zoomed in version.
Speaker 1: It's it's just continuing to go up. And unless they
Speaker 1: flatten out or go down like they did briefly here,
Speaker 1: the likeliness of another big top and a huge sell
Speaker 1: off is pretty slim.
Speaker 2: Gotcha, So they continue to buy. Are you able to
Speaker 2: delineate between what's an ETF wall at versus you know,
Speaker 2: just maybe a high net worth individual and that might
Speaker 2: be very hard, but I'm just curious.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. It's something that
Speaker 1: I've talked to the team a little bit about, and
Speaker 1: I'd love if we eventually have that. For bitcoin labeling,
Speaker 1: we're a bit limited in finding whether it's an exchange
Speaker 1: wallet or ETF wallet. There is a little more if
Speaker 1: we look at like ethereum for example, eath is where
Speaker 1: we have the most data for any any asset that
Speaker 1: is under the ERC twenty blockchain. We have a little
Speaker 1: more labeling in terms of where wallets are coming from.
Speaker 1: It might take just a few seconds to load here.
Speaker 1: Why don't I come back to it just so we
Speaker 1: don't have to sit and wait? But oh, there we are.
Speaker 1: So we can see here if we just look at
Speaker 1: like the last thirty days of transactions, we can sort
Speaker 1: by the largest to smallest over that time, and we
Speaker 1: can see like the biggest Ethereum one, for example, was
Speaker 1: a centralized exchange move to another centralized exchange, and we
Speaker 1: have a lot of those that are happening all the time.
Speaker 1: This was an actual withdrawal. This was a withdrawal as well.
Speaker 1: The deposits are the ones that we look out for,
Speaker 1: and I wish we had that for Bitcoin. I assume could.
Speaker 1: We eventually will because our developers are amazing and I
Speaker 1: want to give them a shout out for good reason.
Speaker 1: But for now, we can't really really differentiate between ETF
Speaker 1: wallets and regular unchain wallets.
Speaker 2: Got it? Yeah? And I you know, like the folks
Speaker 2: at bit wise, they do share their wallet address where
Speaker 2: they store their bitcoin. But not all the issuers do that,
Speaker 2: but if they all did, it would be pretty easy
Speaker 2: for the market to get an idea of who has
Speaker 2: how much real time you know, what's moving in and out,
Speaker 2: and you could segment those wallet addresses from the rest
Speaker 2: of the folks out there totally.
Speaker 1: I think the fact that there's public info out there
Speaker 1: means it's a matter of time until we have that
Speaker 1: on santonent awesome.
Speaker 2: Now, all coins, you know, they've been struggling for a
Speaker 2: lot because Bitcoin obviously has been in a corrective phase. However,
Speaker 2: we're seeing some of them individual all coins are starting
Speaker 2: to move a bit. What are you seeing on your end?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there's there have been plenty of breakouts.
Speaker 1: Just in the past twenty four hours. I see bit
Speaker 1: Tenser and Celestia making huge runs. I think Celestia, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's the top performer at least within the top
Speaker 1: one on one hundred market caps over the past week,
Speaker 1: up fifty one percent. We also see assets like Swee
Speaker 1: up thirty percent, bit Tensor up about thirty two and
Speaker 1: a half, immutable x up twenty, Phantom having a huge
Speaker 1: run up thirty four and a half percent. So plenty
Speaker 1: of alf coins having individual runs, and that's where these
Speaker 1: you know, metrics are just so handy, because when you
Speaker 1: start to see things get bullish or even flat, there's
Speaker 1: always individual assets out there that are getting huge stories
Speaker 1: at any given time. I made this model for myself
Speaker 1: that's basically using the Santimind API to tell me which
Speaker 1: networks are getting hot or are getting super cold compared
Speaker 1: to their normal averages at any given time. And each
Speaker 1: of them have a label. Here, it's a ton It
Speaker 1: looks like a spaceship, I understand. But the moral of
Speaker 1: the story is if you look at any of these labels,
Speaker 1: the more red they are, the hotter the network is.
Speaker 1: For example, Phantom, which is one of the best performers
Speaker 1: over the past week and even past day, it's not
Speaker 1: a coincidence that it's seeing a lot of hot network
Speaker 1: activity right now. That's why it's showing as red. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: a meme coin like Pepe struggling at the moment and
Speaker 1: seeing very little network activity. So the rule of thumb
Speaker 1: is it's not just an automatic bullish symbol. If you
Speaker 1: see red next to one of these labels, it means
Speaker 1: that it's more likely to shift the current direction that
Speaker 1: it's going because a sudden spike in address activity or
Speaker 1: network growth or fomo from retail traders. It means that
Speaker 1: if the coin is going up rapidly, it's more likely
Speaker 1: to turn down. So yesterday when Phantom was kind of flat,
Speaker 1: this was a perfect signal that it was about to erupt.
Speaker 1: This is two days ago, and then this is the
Speaker 1: past twenty four hours, so this was a sign that
Speaker 1: it's time to buy. And this is a sign that
Speaker 1: there's a lot of fomo and we actually might see
Speaker 1: a local top soon. So the question is really which
Speaker 1: assets are super hot network wise without really seeing a
Speaker 1: lot of uptick in price yet. Aragon is one that's
Speaker 1: standing out. It's kind of orange red and the price
Speaker 1: it's showing it's only up two percent in the past
Speaker 1: twenty four hours. That's actually underperforming versus the rest of
Speaker 1: the markets. So that would be one to look out for.
Speaker 1: Origin over here only up two percent in the past
Speaker 1: twenty four hours, but very hot network activity. Just trying
Speaker 1: to eyeball any others that might be shown up here
Speaker 1: that one's already seeing a lot of surging. I'd say
Speaker 1: Ergo is a good candidate as well, and This is
Speaker 1: obviously not investments advice. This is just going off of
Speaker 1: what the model is telling us in terms of which
Speaker 1: are the biggest risers. We can also even see by category,
Speaker 1: so for example, whale transactions Origin protocol is standing out
Speaker 1: as the biggest riser in terms of whale transactions. Right
Speaker 1: now Phantom biggest riser in terms of active addresses and
Speaker 1: network growth. So I love this model. It's one of
Speaker 1: my go to is to find things to post about
Speaker 1: on a daily basis. And for those interested, I can
Speaker 1: leave a link for this model for you Tony after
Speaker 1: this call and you can share it in your video
Speaker 1: link if you'd like.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that'd be perfect. I think this is very insightful data.
Speaker 2: I want to personally take the time to go through it,
Speaker 2: so I'm sure the audience would love to go through
Speaker 2: it as well. Brian, as you're talking about this, what
Speaker 2: are you seeing for Sue And the reason why I'm
Speaker 2: bring that up. They had a lot of big announcement
Speaker 2: partnerships this past week and there's been a lot of talks.
Speaker 2: I've seen some big investors like ral Palell talk about
Speaker 2: it and so forth, so I'm curious what's happening on
Speaker 2: that front.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's check it out together. I admittedly have not
Speaker 1: looked too much into Sueeze data, but they're up to
Speaker 1: the number twenty five spot market cap wise, and they've
Speaker 1: made some noise and it definitely should be studied. I
Speaker 1: want to mention that it's not any RC twenty asset,
Speaker 1: so our data on it is going to be limited
Speaker 1: to mostly volume and sentiment related metrics. But that's certainly
Speaker 1: still very valuable. And one thing that immediately pops out
Speaker 1: to me is it's seeing its biggest volume right now
Speaker 1: in about six months. So clearly people are trading into
Speaker 1: this trend right now, which is generally a good thing
Speaker 1: and indicates that the trend can continue assuming that Bitcoin
Speaker 1: is able to keep up its own momentum or at
Speaker 1: least stay four bitcoin falls. Alf coin metrics like this
Speaker 1: become irrelevant because they're going to be tied directly to
Speaker 1: Bitcoin's performance. So swee is in terms of volume, it's
Speaker 1: looking fantastic right now, it's continuing to grow. And then
Speaker 1: if I go down to social volume, way down here,
Speaker 1: huge spikes in discussion rate and in terms of its
Speaker 1: dominance of discussion rate compared to the rest of the markets,
Speaker 1: so we see this as a perfect local top, and
Speaker 1: this was kind of a local top as well. Generally,
Speaker 1: you don't want to see huge spikes and discussion rate
Speaker 1: as prices rise. I would imagine if we zoom in
Speaker 1: a little bit to the past week, make this a
Speaker 1: bit more granular, and I'm going to make this we'll
Speaker 1: call it fifteen minutes. That's too tight, We'll just do
Speaker 1: one hour, okay. So we want to see social volume
Speaker 1: going down as it actually kind of is now over
Speaker 1: the past twenty four hours. If we starts to make
Speaker 1: another run up here at a dollar thirty five to
Speaker 1: dollar forty, we don't want to see chatter start to
Speaker 1: lift up again. It's a very good sign that it's
Speaker 1: low at the moment, meaning that if it does start
Speaker 1: to pump up again, it's going to be doing so
Speaker 1: with very little resistance from the crowd. Once the fomo
Speaker 1: picks up, that's where you might see a top once again.
Speaker 1: So in terms of Suey's performance, it's probably going to
Speaker 1: be highly dictated by how much the crowd is paying
Speaker 1: direct attention to this asset versus just the other alt
Speaker 1: coins that are having their own breakouts, which there.
Speaker 2: Are a lot of right now, it seems that things
Speaker 2: are starting to learn't a bit bullish with Bitcoin moving,
Speaker 2: some of these all coins breaking out, But we still
Speaker 2: got to give it time because historically September has been
Speaker 2: not so good for market, So it could be a
Speaker 2: fake out a bit and then we get a dump
Speaker 2: and then come Q four, maybe that's when things really
Speaker 2: start to move. But who knows, right, we don't have
Speaker 2: a crystal ball, but good to see some activity here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the more people talk about timing in the markets,
Speaker 1: the less it typically matters. If the narrative throughout Twitter
Speaker 1: and Reddit and what have you is that September is
Speaker 1: a bad month, September will end up being a very
Speaker 1: good month. If people don't believe in the hype around
Speaker 1: certain months or timing, that's when timing starts to matter more. So.
Speaker 1: Markets are always moving the opposite direction of the crowd's expectation.
Speaker 1: And I don't mean that lightly, like we just continue
Speaker 1: to see that being the case, like clockwork. I personally
Speaker 1: think even with crypto being around a little over fifty
Speaker 1: teen years now, it's still too small of a sample
Speaker 1: size for us to look at one given month or
Speaker 1: one given season and say that's the time to buy,
Speaker 1: that's the time to sell, because it happened four other
Speaker 1: times or seven other times. Maybe after one hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty years we'll have enough data at it to say
Speaker 1: what months or weeks are good. But I'm not a
Speaker 1: believer in timing the markets and saying, oh, you can
Speaker 1: just pour your money into something else until you know, December,
Speaker 1: and then it's a good time to scoop up bitcoin
Speaker 1: because if everyone believes that, yeah, and it's a zero
Speaker 1: sum game, how is that possible?
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And great point that the market always
Speaker 2: does the opposite of the herd, right, the herd is
Speaker 2: never right, well for the most part, probably ninety nine
Speaker 2: percent of the time. Maybe there's a one percent chance
Speaker 2: they are. But time and time again, I see that
Speaker 2: where you know, everybody's saying one thing and the market
Speaker 2: does the opposite.
Speaker 1: Totally. Yeah, it's it's a great lesson for trading psychology,
Speaker 1: even for you know, equity trading and other things. It's
Speaker 1: there are always crowd narratives that form, and when people
Speaker 1: start to get unanimous, like everyone thought that right when
Speaker 1: the bitcoin having you know, bitcoin would take off, and
Speaker 1: then oh it goes down the next two weeks right.
Speaker 1: These are perfect lessons on how to be a contrarian
Speaker 1: and what you should really be paying attention to.
Speaker 2: And of course you can use sentiments data to help
Speaker 2: you get an idea of what's happening right and how
Speaker 2: to be that conrarian. So good stuff, Bryan, always great insights.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Man.
Speaker 1: Always my friend. Good catching up with you.