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<v Speaker 1>You know, there was an initial run up right when

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<v Speaker 1>the FED cut their rates, and then the crowd caught

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<v Speaker 1>up to the news right there, literally right at the

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<v Speaker 1>top for bitcoin and the S and P, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we see a downturn and then they started to get

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit hesitant. And obviously we've been going back

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<v Speaker 1>up ever since. But right now is the time where

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<v Speaker 1>you start to see whether people mention, you know, those

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<v Speaker 1>round numbers between seventy to seventy nine k a lot,

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<v Speaker 1>or if people get fearful that we might we might

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<v Speaker 1>go back down to fifty to fifty nine k. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>both are quite low.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast, your home for cryptocurrency

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<v Speaker 2>news and interviews. With me today is Brian from Santaman.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to break down the different cryptometrics and stats

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<v Speaker 2>about what's happening in the market. Brian, great to have

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<v Speaker 2>you on.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to be here, Tony. I think we've got a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty substantial amount of things we can get into, and

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<v Speaker 1>things are kind of celebratory and the markets for the

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<v Speaker 1>first time in a long.

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<v Speaker 2>Time, I think, yeah, Brian, I mean doing this a

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<v Speaker 2>day after the FED announcement that they're cutting rates by

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<v Speaker 2>fifty basis points. Bitcoin is back over sixty three thousand dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>Definitely want to look at the data, and that's where

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<v Speaker 2>you come in. So maybe we can start with what's

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<v Speaker 2>the sentiment around the FED and the cuts and what

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<v Speaker 2>are you hearing and seeing?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I'll show my screen here and we can dive

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<v Speaker 1>right into these sentiment side. I'll lead things off just

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<v Speaker 1>by showing the overall mentions of any words related to

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<v Speaker 1>FED rate rates cut or inflation. And as you'd imagine,

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<v Speaker 1>the amount of discussion related to an event that happened

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<v Speaker 1>for the first time in four and a half years.

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<v Speaker 1>The last time this happened was March fifteen to twenty twenty.

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<v Speaker 1>So people are hyped and they're talking about it quite

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<v Speaker 1>a bit because objectively, this should be a bullish event

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<v Speaker 1>for crypto. It was interesting, right when the FED cut

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<v Speaker 1>rates around eleven is am Pacific time yesterday, there was

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<v Speaker 1>an initial run up followed by a huge drop off,

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<v Speaker 1>and the stock markets actually ended down after they went

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<v Speaker 1>up significantly to start. So that's actually quite typical when

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<v Speaker 1>the crowd is anticipating something and the price is already

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<v Speaker 1>a bit baked in. More so in the stock market

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<v Speaker 1>than crypto, of course, but because it was already predicted

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<v Speaker 1>to be like an eighty five percent likely outcome for

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<v Speaker 1>the FED to cut rates, the prices had already been

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<v Speaker 1>kind of creeping up. Bitcoin was already above sixty k

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<v Speaker 1>at the time the announcement was made, the S and

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<v Speaker 1>P was already at all time high levels, So the

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<v Speaker 1>idea was there was a bit of a buy the

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<v Speaker 1>rumor sell the news situation that I think was pretty

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<v Speaker 1>short lived. By the time we went to bed here

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<v Speaker 1>in the US, crypto is already starting to creep up,

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<v Speaker 1>especially ald coins, which I'll get into in a moment.

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<v Speaker 1>But the initial reaction appears to be a lot of hype,

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of confusion because yesterday was a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a fake out day. So that distrust I think

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<v Speaker 1>is helping to fuel crypto higher right now, because retail

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<v Speaker 1>traders haven't quite fomoed in just yet like you would expect.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, for sure. And you mentioned the volatility, right Usually,

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<v Speaker 2>I've noticed a pattern that any time there's an announcement

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<v Speaker 2>a week of an FMC meeting or whatever it may be,

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<v Speaker 2>there's tons of volatility. You can't really judge the market

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<v Speaker 2>yet you kind of have to let things cool down.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe next week we get a clearer understanding. But bitcoin

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<v Speaker 2>is starting to move. I don't know if this is

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<v Speaker 2>a true breakout to a new all time high, or

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<v Speaker 2>you know, it's making a lower high, so to speak,

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<v Speaker 2>lower low on its way to finding the bottom.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's obviously it's really tough to predict. And if

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<v Speaker 1>we knew the future, you know, we wouldn't even need jobs, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's I think I just put out an article

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday talking about how the crowd is likely going to

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<v Speaker 1>dictate whether we do see an all time high as

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<v Speaker 1>a quick reaction to this news. I basically just talk

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<v Speaker 1>about how, you know, there was an initial run up

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<v Speaker 1>right when the Fed cut their rates, and then the

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<v Speaker 1>crowd caught up to the news right there, literally right

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<v Speaker 1>at the top for bitcoin and the S and P,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we see a downturn and then they started

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<v Speaker 1>to get a little bit hesitant. And obviously we've been

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<v Speaker 1>going back up ever since. But right now is the

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<v Speaker 1>time where you start to see whether people mention you know,

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<v Speaker 1>those round numbers between seventy to seventy nine K a lot,

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<v Speaker 1>or if people get fearful that we might we might

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<v Speaker 1>go back down to fifty to fifty nine K right now,

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<v Speaker 1>both are quite low, and everyone's celebrating the sixty to

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<v Speaker 1>sixty nine K level. Of course, the mentions toward these

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<v Speaker 1>numbers are up because we're now in them, right But

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<v Speaker 1>when you start to see mentions of lower numbers than

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<v Speaker 1>where we currently are, or higher numbers from where we

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<v Speaker 1>currently are, that's where you start to see perfect tops

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<v Speaker 1>or perfect bottoms like we see here while I highlight

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<v Speaker 1>seventy to seventy nine Look at these past six months

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<v Speaker 1>and how these spikes align with that faded green line

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<v Speaker 1>going down right after those spikes happened. Or alternatively, you

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<v Speaker 1>see how much bottoms correlated with these fifty to fifty

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<v Speaker 1>nine K mentioned spikes. So that's probably the most important

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<v Speaker 1>chart I'm going to be looking at over the next

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<v Speaker 1>few weeks to see when people start to lean one

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<v Speaker 1>way or another or anticipate those the potential all time

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<v Speaker 1>highs or a potential retrace.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, from a social mentioned standpoint, you know, how are

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<v Speaker 2>people feeling? Are you seeing more positive signs or I

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<v Speaker 2>guess maybe is it the social dominance chart? I can't

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<v Speaker 2>remember which one it is that we're sentiment?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So This is I think we talked about it

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<v Speaker 1>maybe once or twice before, but it's kind of a

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<v Speaker 1>custom metric that I made which solely looks at the

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<v Speaker 1>amount of positive sentiment keywords out there versus negative sentiment

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<v Speaker 1>keywords or just overall posts. So our algorithm is able

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<v Speaker 1>to differentiate if someone's saying I'm bullish, I'm buying versus

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<v Speaker 1>I think bitcoin is going to go lower, I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>going to buy thro forty k stuff like that. So

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<v Speaker 1>we put all of those together and we make a

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<v Speaker 1>ratio of all the positive comments versus all the negative

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<v Speaker 1>comments throughout Twitter, slash x, Reddit, Telegram, four Chan, and

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<v Speaker 1>even bitcoin talk. And this is showing there's three big

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<v Speaker 1>spikes that we've seen in the past three months. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a super negative one that happened on July fourth, right,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to say before or after I think it

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<v Speaker 1>was before the Trump assassination attempt, and then we went

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<v Speaker 1>on this huge surge. Then we see this huge positive

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<v Speaker 1>spike right before about twenty four hours before the top,

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<v Speaker 1>as people were anticipating a new all time high here,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we go way down, and then we go

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<v Speaker 1>super negative again back on August fourth, which was right

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<v Speaker 1>at the bottom. So these negative spikes here the only

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<v Speaker 1>two times where we were actually seeing a higher ratio

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<v Speaker 1>of negative comments than positive comments. They were literally the

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<v Speaker 1>perfect times to buy. This was literally the perfect time

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<v Speaker 1>to sell. It's not always going to be that clear cut,

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<v Speaker 1>but I didn't fluff the numbers in anyway. This is

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<v Speaker 1>just the last three months of this ratio and how

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<v Speaker 1>it's how it's dictating where prices go next. So people

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<v Speaker 1>who think, oh, it's only whales that are controlling the markets, No,

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<v Speaker 1>there's two elements. It's the whales on one side that

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<v Speaker 1>are accumulating, accumulating or dumping at any time, versus the

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<v Speaker 1>retail average joe traders who are constantly getting it wrong

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<v Speaker 1>and giving you perfect counter trading signals at any given.

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<v Speaker 2>Time, great insights. Speaking of whales, what have they been

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<v Speaker 2>doing from an accumulation standpoint? Are they still buying?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's it's looking really good to be honest, Just

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<v Speaker 1>in the past three months, going back to June eighteenth,

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<v Speaker 1>they were holding sixteen point sixteen million bitcoin in total.

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<v Speaker 1>Then they're up to sixteen point one eight million now.

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<v Speaker 1>To be precise, they've accumulated about twenty two three hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty six btc over the past three months. If

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<v Speaker 1>we go back a full year, I'm gonna update this

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<v Speaker 1>axis so it isn't off the screen. So this is

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<v Speaker 1>what it I like going back a full year, They've

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<v Speaker 1>added if we just account for any wall, if that

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<v Speaker 1>holds ten or more btc two hundred and forty and

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<v Speaker 1>seventy bitcoin during that time, and they're not showing signs

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<v Speaker 1>of slowing down as we showed the zoomed in version.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's just continuing to go up. And unless they

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<v Speaker 1>flatten out or go down like they did briefly here,

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<v Speaker 1>the likeliness of another big top and a huge sell

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<v Speaker 1>off is pretty slim.

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<v Speaker 2>Gotcha, So they continue to buy. Are you able to

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<v Speaker 2>delineate between what's an ETF wall at versus you know,

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<v Speaker 2>just maybe a high net worth individual and that might

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<v Speaker 2>be very hard, but I'm just curious.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. It's something that

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<v Speaker 1>I've talked to the team a little bit about, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'd love if we eventually have that. For bitcoin labeling,

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<v Speaker 1>we're a bit limited in finding whether it's an exchange

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<v Speaker 1>wallet or ETF wallet. There is a little more if

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<v Speaker 1>we look at like ethereum for example, eath is where

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<v Speaker 1>we have the most data for any any asset that

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<v Speaker 1>is under the ERC twenty blockchain. We have a little

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<v Speaker 1>more labeling in terms of where wallets are coming from.

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<v Speaker 1>It might take just a few seconds to load here.

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<v Speaker 1>Why don't I come back to it just so we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have to sit and wait? But oh, there we are.

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<v Speaker 1>So we can see here if we just look at

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<v Speaker 1>like the last thirty days of transactions, we can sort

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<v Speaker 1>by the largest to smallest over that time, and we

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<v Speaker 1>can see like the biggest Ethereum one, for example, was

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<v Speaker 1>a centralized exchange move to another centralized exchange, and we

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<v Speaker 1>have a lot of those that are happening all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>This was an actual withdrawal. This was a withdrawal as well.

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<v Speaker 1>The deposits are the ones that we look out for,

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<v Speaker 1>and I wish we had that for Bitcoin. I assume could.

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<v Speaker 1>We eventually will because our developers are amazing and I

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<v Speaker 1>want to give them a shout out for good reason.

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<v Speaker 1>But for now, we can't really really differentiate between ETF

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<v Speaker 1>wallets and regular unchain wallets.

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<v Speaker 2>Got it? Yeah? And I you know, like the folks

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<v Speaker 2>at bit wise, they do share their wallet address where

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<v Speaker 2>they store their bitcoin. But not all the issuers do that,

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<v Speaker 2>but if they all did, it would be pretty easy

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<v Speaker 2>for the market to get an idea of who has

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<v Speaker 2>how much real time you know, what's moving in and out,

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<v Speaker 2>and you could segment those wallet addresses from the rest

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<v Speaker 2>of the folks out there totally.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the fact that there's public info out there

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<v Speaker 1>means it's a matter of time until we have that

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<v Speaker 1>on santonent awesome.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, all coins, you know, they've been struggling for a

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<v Speaker 2>lot because Bitcoin obviously has been in a corrective phase. However,

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<v Speaker 2>we're seeing some of them individual all coins are starting

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<v Speaker 2>to move a bit. What are you seeing on your end?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean there's there have been plenty of breakouts.

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<v Speaker 1>Just in the past twenty four hours. I see bit

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<v Speaker 1>Tenser and Celestia making huge runs. I think Celestia, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's the top performer at least within the top

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<v Speaker 1>one on one hundred market caps over the past week,

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<v Speaker 1>up fifty one percent. We also see assets like Swee

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<v Speaker 1>up thirty percent, bit Tensor up about thirty two and

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<v Speaker 1>a half, immutable x up twenty, Phantom having a huge

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<v Speaker 1>run up thirty four and a half percent. So plenty

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<v Speaker 1>of alf coins having individual runs, and that's where these

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<v Speaker 1>you know, metrics are just so handy, because when you

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<v Speaker 1>start to see things get bullish or even flat, there's

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<v Speaker 1>always individual assets out there that are getting huge stories

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<v Speaker 1>at any given time. I made this model for myself

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<v Speaker 1>that's basically using the Santimind API to tell me which

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<v Speaker 1>networks are getting hot or are getting super cold compared

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<v Speaker 1>to their normal averages at any given time. And each

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<v Speaker 1>of them have a label. Here, it's a ton It

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<v Speaker 1>looks like a spaceship, I understand. But the moral of

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<v Speaker 1>the story is if you look at any of these labels,

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<v Speaker 1>the more red they are, the hotter the network is.

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<v Speaker 1>For example, Phantom, which is one of the best performers

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<v Speaker 1>over the past week and even past day, it's not

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<v Speaker 1>a coincidence that it's seeing a lot of hot network

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<v Speaker 1>activity right now. That's why it's showing as red. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 1>a meme coin like Pepe struggling at the moment and

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<v Speaker 1>seeing very little network activity. So the rule of thumb

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<v Speaker 1>is it's not just an automatic bullish symbol. If you

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<v Speaker 1>see red next to one of these labels, it means

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<v Speaker 1>that it's more likely to shift the current direction that

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<v Speaker 1>it's going because a sudden spike in address activity or

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<v Speaker 1>network growth or fomo from retail traders. It means that

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<v Speaker 1>if the coin is going up rapidly, it's more likely

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<v Speaker 1>to turn down. So yesterday when Phantom was kind of flat,

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<v Speaker 1>this was a perfect signal that it was about to erupt.

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<v Speaker 1>This is two days ago, and then this is the

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<v Speaker 1>past twenty four hours, so this was a sign that

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<v Speaker 1>it's time to buy. And this is a sign that

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of fomo and we actually might see

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<v Speaker 1>a local top soon. So the question is really which

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<v Speaker 1>assets are super hot network wise without really seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of uptick in price yet. Aragon is one that's

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<v Speaker 1>standing out. It's kind of orange red and the price

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<v Speaker 1>it's showing it's only up two percent in the past

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours. That's actually underperforming versus the rest of

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<v Speaker 1>the markets. So that would be one to look out for.

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<v Speaker 1>Origin over here only up two percent in the past

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours, but very hot network activity. Just trying

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<v Speaker 1>to eyeball any others that might be shown up here

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<v Speaker 1>that one's already seeing a lot of surging. I'd say

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<v Speaker 1>Ergo is a good candidate as well, and This is

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<v Speaker 1>obviously not investments advice. This is just going off of

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<v Speaker 1>what the model is telling us in terms of which

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<v Speaker 1>are the biggest risers. We can also even see by category,

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<v Speaker 1>so for example, whale transactions Origin protocol is standing out

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<v Speaker 1>as the biggest riser in terms of whale transactions. Right

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<v Speaker 1>now Phantom biggest riser in terms of active addresses and

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<v Speaker 1>network growth. So I love this model. It's one of

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<v Speaker 1>my go to is to find things to post about

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<v Speaker 1>on a daily basis. And for those interested, I can

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<v Speaker 1>leave a link for this model for you Tony after

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<v Speaker 1>this call and you can share it in your video

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<v Speaker 1>link if you'd like.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that'd be perfect. I think this is very insightful data.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to personally take the time to go through it,

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<v Speaker 2>so I'm sure the audience would love to go through

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<v Speaker 2>it as well. Brian, as you're talking about this, what

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<v Speaker 2>are you seeing for Sue And the reason why I'm

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<v Speaker 2>bring that up. They had a lot of big announcement

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<v Speaker 2>partnerships this past week and there's been a lot of talks.

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<v Speaker 2>I've seen some big investors like ral Palell talk about

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<v Speaker 2>it and so forth, so I'm curious what's happening on

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<v Speaker 2>that front.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's check it out together. I admittedly have not

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<v Speaker 1>looked too much into Sueeze data, but they're up to

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<v Speaker 1>the number twenty five spot market cap wise, and they've

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<v Speaker 1>made some noise and it definitely should be studied. I

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<v Speaker 1>want to mention that it's not any RC twenty asset,

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<v Speaker 1>so our data on it is going to be limited

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<v Speaker 1>to mostly volume and sentiment related metrics. But that's certainly

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<v Speaker 1>still very valuable. And one thing that immediately pops out

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<v Speaker 1>to me is it's seeing its biggest volume right now

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<v Speaker 1>in about six months. So clearly people are trading into

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<v Speaker 1>this trend right now, which is generally a good thing

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<v Speaker 1>and indicates that the trend can continue assuming that Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>is able to keep up its own momentum or at

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<v Speaker 1>least stay four bitcoin falls. Alf coin metrics like this

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<v Speaker 1>become irrelevant because they're going to be tied directly to

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin's performance. So swee is in terms of volume, it's

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<v Speaker 1>looking fantastic right now, it's continuing to grow. And then

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<v Speaker 1>if I go down to social volume, way down here,

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<v Speaker 1>huge spikes in discussion rate and in terms of its

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<v Speaker 1>dominance of discussion rate compared to the rest of the markets,

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<v Speaker 1>so we see this as a perfect local top, and

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<v Speaker 1>this was kind of a local top as well. Generally,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't want to see huge spikes and discussion rate

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<v Speaker 1>as prices rise. I would imagine if we zoom in

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit to the past week, make this a

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<v Speaker 1>bit more granular, and I'm going to make this we'll

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<v Speaker 1>call it fifteen minutes. That's too tight, We'll just do

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<v Speaker 1>one hour, okay. So we want to see social volume

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<v Speaker 1>going down as it actually kind of is now over

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<v Speaker 1>the past twenty four hours. If we starts to make

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<v Speaker 1>another run up here at a dollar thirty five to

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<v Speaker 1>dollar forty, we don't want to see chatter start to

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<v Speaker 1>lift up again. It's a very good sign that it's

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<v Speaker 1>low at the moment, meaning that if it does start

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<v Speaker 1>to pump up again, it's going to be doing so

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<v Speaker 1>with very little resistance from the crowd. Once the fomo

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<v Speaker 1>picks up, that's where you might see a top once again.

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<v Speaker 1>So in terms of Suey's performance, it's probably going to

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<v Speaker 1>be highly dictated by how much the crowd is paying

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<v Speaker 1>direct attention to this asset versus just the other alt

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<v Speaker 1>coins that are having their own breakouts, which there.

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<v Speaker 2>Are a lot of right now, it seems that things

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<v Speaker 2>are starting to learn't a bit bullish with Bitcoin moving,

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<v Speaker 2>some of these all coins breaking out, But we still

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<v Speaker 2>got to give it time because historically September has been

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<v Speaker 2>not so good for market, So it could be a

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<v Speaker 2>fake out a bit and then we get a dump

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<v Speaker 2>and then come Q four, maybe that's when things really

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<v Speaker 2>start to move. But who knows, right, we don't have

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<v Speaker 2>a crystal ball, but good to see some activity here.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the more people talk about timing in the markets,

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<v Speaker 1>the less it typically matters. If the narrative throughout Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>and Reddit and what have you is that September is

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<v Speaker 1>a bad month, September will end up being a very

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<v Speaker 1>good month. If people don't believe in the hype around

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<v Speaker 1>certain months or timing, that's when timing starts to matter more. So.

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<v Speaker 1>Markets are always moving the opposite direction of the crowd's expectation.

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<v Speaker 1>And I don't mean that lightly, like we just continue

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<v Speaker 1>to see that being the case, like clockwork. I personally

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<v Speaker 1>think even with crypto being around a little over fifty

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<v Speaker 1>teen years now, it's still too small of a sample

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<v Speaker 1>size for us to look at one given month or

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<v Speaker 1>one given season and say that's the time to buy,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the time to sell, because it happened four other

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<v Speaker 1>times or seven other times. Maybe after one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty years we'll have enough data at it to say

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<v Speaker 1>what months or weeks are good. But I'm not a

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<v Speaker 1>believer in timing the markets and saying, oh, you can

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<v Speaker 1>just pour your money into something else until you know, December,

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<v Speaker 1>and then it's a good time to scoop up bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>because if everyone believes that, yeah, and it's a zero

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<v Speaker 1>sum game, how is that possible?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, for sure. And great point that the market always

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<v Speaker 2>does the opposite of the herd, right, the herd is

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<v Speaker 2>never right, well for the most part, probably ninety nine

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the time. Maybe there's a one percent chance

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<v Speaker 2>they are. But time and time again, I see that

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<v Speaker 2>where you know, everybody's saying one thing and the market

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<v Speaker 2>does the opposite.

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<v Speaker 1>Totally. Yeah, it's it's a great lesson for trading psychology,

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<v Speaker 1>even for you know, equity trading and other things. It's

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<v Speaker 1>there are always crowd narratives that form, and when people

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<v Speaker 1>start to get unanimous, like everyone thought that right when

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<v Speaker 1>the bitcoin having you know, bitcoin would take off, and

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<v Speaker 1>then oh it goes down the next two weeks right.

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<v Speaker 1>These are perfect lessons on how to be a contrarian

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<v Speaker 1>and what you should really be paying attention to.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course you can use sentiments data to help

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<v Speaker 2>you get an idea of what's happening right and how

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<v Speaker 2>to be that conrarian. So good stuff, Bryan, always great insights.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much, Man.

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<v Speaker 1>Always my friend. Good catching up with you.