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<v Speaker 1>Hey there, it's Alex Monday, August third. If you've been

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<v Speaker 1>staring at your hardware wallet wondering if it's actually safe, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that instinct isn't crazy. Today we're going to walk through

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<v Speaker 1>exactly why that self custody scare is happening and what

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<v Speaker 1>the big players are building while the rest of the

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<v Speaker 1>market takes a breather. Well, look at how Ripple is

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<v Speaker 1>trying to make tokenized funds work for everyday investors, which

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<v Speaker 1>means skipping the usual banking red tape, and why it

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<v Speaker 1>matters for your portfolio. But first, a quick word from

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<v Speaker 1>our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening. The cold card

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<v Speaker 1>wallet exploit just hit day five, Bitcoin slip past sixty

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand dollars and roughly one hundred and fourteen million

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<v Speaker 1>dollars has been pulled out. That's shaking up self custody

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<v Speaker 1>trust right now. Here's where things stand right now. Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>is hovering around sixty two thousand dollars, Ethereum is holding

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<v Speaker 1>steady near eighteen hundred, and Solana is sitting at about

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<v Speaker 1>seventy two. The total crypto market cap is roughly two

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<v Speaker 1>point one five trillion dollars, with Bitcoin making up about

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<v Speaker 1>fifty eight percent of that pie. DeFi total value locked

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<v Speaker 1>is around seventy four billion, and stable coin supply is

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<v Speaker 1>sitting near three hundred six billion. Meanwhile, the Fear and

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<v Speaker 1>Greed index is at twenty eight, still firmly in fear territory,

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<v Speaker 1>which tells us traders are playing it pretty safe. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>peak at what prediction markets are telling us. First question,

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<v Speaker 1>will bitcoin stay above sixty four thousand dollars on August fourth? Right,

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<v Speaker 1>the odds are pretty low around ten percent, but if

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<v Speaker 1>it climbs back above that line, everything flips. Second, will

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<v Speaker 1>it hold above sixty two thousand dollars? The market is

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<v Speaker 1>actually more confident here, pricing it in at around seventy percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Why does this matter because if the price holds that

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<v Speaker 1>lower line when the vote resolves, it signals buyers are

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<v Speaker 1>stepping in. Just remember this is educational context, not a

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<v Speaker 1>betting hip. First up, Ripple is investing in Zelo and

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<v Speaker 1>Likudo to push forward tokenized capital markets. Think of it

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<v Speaker 1>like a bank renting a blockchain instead of building one

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<v Speaker 1>from scratch. The goal here is to let tokenized funds

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<v Speaker 1>act as collateral right from the start, which means skipping

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<v Speaker 1>the usual wall between traditional finance and on chain rails.

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<v Speaker 1>The takeaway is simple. If this goes live on the

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<v Speaker 1>XRP ledger within thirty days, Ripple's whole strategy gets a

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<v Speaker 1>major boost. If it stalls well, it might just be

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<v Speaker 1>another PowerPoint pivot. Next, American Bitcoin, the company linked to

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, mind a record nine hundred and thirty two

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin in the second quarter while narrowing its losses. Pulling

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<v Speaker 1>that much out of the ground while the market dips

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<v Speaker 1>is kind of like finding oil during your recession. Mining

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<v Speaker 1>revenue actually went up eight percent even as bitcoin slid,

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<v Speaker 1>showing that bigger operations can weather the storm better, but

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<v Speaker 1>a smaller loss is loss. Watch this closely. If bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>stays below sixty five thousand through August, we'll see if

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<v Speaker 1>that mining revenue was a fluke. If it reclaims seventy thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>these miners could really print over In Asia. Bitgt is

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<v Speaker 1>walking away from Japan by December thirty first, stopping trades

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<v Speaker 1>for local residents right now, another offshore exchange folding to

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<v Speaker 1>local rules. Japan's licensing is tight. It acts like a

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<v Speaker 1>bouncer at an exclusive club, and if you aren't on

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<v Speaker 1>the list you're out. This pushes users toward compliant local venues.

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<v Speaker 1>The watch item here. If Japan titans rules further by November, first,

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<v Speaker 1>expect more exits. If they ease up, bitgit might come back.

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<v Speaker 1>Traders are saying bitcoin slide from sixty five thousand dollars

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<v Speaker 1>is mostly thin volume, not panic selling. The market didn't crash,

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<v Speaker 1>It just stops showing up, like a party where everyone

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<v Speaker 1>left quietly instead of flipping tables. Thin boat hooks mean

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<v Speaker 1>a small order can move the price, but it can

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<v Speaker 1>also snap back fast. If Bitcoin reclaims sixty five thousand

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<v Speaker 1>on rising volume in the next couple of days, the

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<v Speaker 1>dip was probably just noise. If it breaks sixty thousand

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<v Speaker 1>on heavy selling, though, that thin volume turned into a vacuum. Finally,

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<v Speaker 1>South Korea's Bitham Exchange is targeting a twenty twenty eight

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<v Speaker 1>IPO after a major internal cleanup. An exchange going public

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<v Speaker 1>is the crypto version of a food truck getting a

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street listing. It signals maturity, but it also means

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<v Speaker 1>opening the books to public scrutiny. Korean retail investors still

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<v Speaker 1>move markets, so this is worth watching. If the restructuring

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<v Speaker 1>wraps up, by twenty twenty seven and they file for

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<v Speaker 1>the IPO. The race heats up if markets sour, that

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty eight target could slip. All right, before we

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<v Speaker 1>get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>wrap up with the risk map. First, sentiment is stuck

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<v Speaker 1>in fear, with the index at twenty eight and the

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<v Speaker 1>cold card drain pushing holders to send coins to exchanges.

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<v Speaker 1>People are playing it cautious rather than panicking. Second, regulatory

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<v Speaker 1>exits are accelerating. Bitget leaving Japan shows Asian compliances tightening,

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<v Speaker 1>which squeezes offshore venues that don't follow the rules. Third,

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<v Speaker 1>the big picture, buyers are holding back because centiment is

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<v Speaker 1>weak and stable coin supply shrank last week. That flips

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<v Speaker 1>if Bitcoin holds above sixty two thousand dollars and prediction

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<v Speaker 1>market odds climb past seventy percent. Basically watch those two

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<v Speaker 1>levels to see if caution turns into confidence. Looking ahead

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<v Speaker 1>to the next week, keep an eye on three things. First,

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve macro signals are rolling out. Any press updates

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<v Speaker 1>could shift how risky traders feel about crypto, especially since

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates are still uncertain. Second, the Bitcoin bear bottom

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<v Speaker 1>watch runs through August. Researchers note a possible bottom this month,

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<v Speaker 1>but rising yields coot force the FED to hike rates,

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<v Speaker 1>a key line to watch. Third, the cold card exploit

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<v Speaker 1>fallout continues with over one hundred million drained. Watch for

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<v Speaker 1>more coins moving to exchanges and any new self custody

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<v Speaker 1>policy responses. The main risk remains that cautious sentiment, and

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<v Speaker 1>the top thing to track is whether Bitcoin holds above

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<v Speaker 1>sixty two thousand dollars into the August fourth resolution, while

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<v Speaker 1>stable coin supply stops shrinking. If you're not subscribed to

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<v Speaker 1>the podcast yet, hit that subscribe button. It takes two seconds.

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<v Speaker 1>This is educational content, not investment advice. Always do your

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<v Speaker 1>own research. I'm Alex. See you next time.