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<v Speaker 1>Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics daily polls from

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<v Speaker 1>March thirteenth, twenty twenty six. Got a lot to cover today,

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<v Speaker 1>and honestly, the headline kind of says it all. Bitcoin's

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<v Speaker 1>up while stocks are down and the dollar is strengthening.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not supposed to happen. So let's get into it.

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<v Speaker 1>But first, a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, So

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<v Speaker 1>here's what's happening. Okay, So the big one Bitcoin just

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<v Speaker 1>crossed seventy two thousand dollars, up a few percent on

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<v Speaker 1>the day, while US equity futures slipped and the dollar

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<v Speaker 1>got stronger. And here's why that matters. For three years,

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<v Speaker 1>the playbook has been dollar up, crypto down, risk off

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<v Speaker 1>means everything sells together. Today that playbook got thrown out

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<v Speaker 1>the window. Bitcoin climbed, stocks didn't. That's a decoupling, and

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<v Speaker 1>those don't happen by accident. There are two ways to

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<v Speaker 1>read this. Either institutional allocators are finally treating Bitcoin like

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<v Speaker 1>digital gold, a macro hedge that hold hold when everything

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<v Speaker 1>else wabbles. Or there's a short squeeze building under the surface,

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<v Speaker 1>and this reverse is hard. The geopolitical backdrop is adding

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<v Speaker 1>fuel two. Middle East tensions are lifting oil prices and

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin is still climbing. Correlated assets don't do this. Something's shifting.

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<v Speaker 1>So where does that leave the rest of the market.

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<v Speaker 1>Pretty Much everything is green, which is either a great

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<v Speaker 1>sign or a warning, depending on how you read it.

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin's sitting around seventy three thousand, Ethereum's up a few

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<v Speaker 1>percent two hovering just above twenty one hundred, so la

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<v Speaker 1>Na's up a few percent. Total market cap is around

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<v Speaker 1>two and a half trillion. Now here's the number I'm

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<v Speaker 1>actually watching. Bitcoin dominance is at fifty seven percent. That's elevated.

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<v Speaker 1>And what's interesting is alts are rallying alongside it, not

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<v Speaker 1>because they're leading, but because they're along for the ride.

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<v Speaker 1>When dominance stays high and alts pump anyway, it usually

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<v Speaker 1>means leverage is building across the board. That's not always

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<v Speaker 1>a bad thing, but it's something to keep an eye on.

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<v Speaker 1>The narrative tracker is also flashing some wild numbers. Data

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<v Speaker 1>availability tokens are up over thirty percent, AI tokens up

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<v Speaker 1>over twenty seven, meme coins up over twenty two. Everything

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<v Speaker 1>is green, and when everything moves together like this, it's

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<v Speaker 1>worth asking whether it's fundamentals or just momentum chasing. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>so what's actually driving all this? Let me walk you

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<v Speaker 1>through the stories that matter today first, and this one's

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<v Speaker 1>the thread running through everything. Bitcoin is passing a geopolitical

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<v Speaker 1>stress test. Token twenty forty nine. Dubai just got postponed

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<v Speaker 1>to twenty twenty seven because Iranian strikes disrupted travel and

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<v Speaker 1>security in the UAE. That's not a minor scheduling conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a major cryptoconference fleeing a war risk, and yet

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin is up. Analysts are pointing out that an Iran

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<v Speaker 1>war oil shock it actually hit bitcoin miners through price,

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<v Speaker 1>not energy costs, because roughly ninety percent of global hash

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<v Speaker 1>rate runs on electricity markets that are insulated from oil.

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<v Speaker 1>So the minor thesis is more resilient than the headline suggests.

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<v Speaker 1>But here's the thing. The broader risk off sentiment that

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<v Speaker 1>geopolitical escalation triggers, that's less resilient. Bitcoin holding through this

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<v Speaker 1>is either the gold narrative finally clicking, or the market

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<v Speaker 1>hasn't fully priced the tail risk yet. One more layer,

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<v Speaker 1>Chainalysis is reporting that Iranian crypto outflows spiked after air

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<v Speaker 1>strikes sanctioned actors using crypto as a pressure valve that

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<v Speaker 1>historically draws regulatory attention. So file that one away. Second

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<v Speaker 1>story black Rocks staked Ethereum ETF ticker eth B pulled

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<v Speaker 1>in fifteen million dollars on its first day of trading.

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<v Speaker 1>Now fifteen million sounds modest, but think about what it

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<v Speaker 1>actually represents the first time the major asset manager has

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<v Speaker 1>wrapped staking yield inside a regulated product and put it

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<v Speaker 1>in front of institutions. This isn't just an ETF launch,

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<v Speaker 1>it's Wall Street putting ethereums yield on the menu next

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<v Speaker 1>to t bills. GBTC did modest numbers early too, and

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<v Speaker 1>we know how that story ended. The more important question

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<v Speaker 1>is how is buying retail via brokerage accounts. Nice pension

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<v Speaker 1>funds and endowments getting their first taste of staking yield

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<v Speaker 1>and a familiar wrapper. That's a structural shift. Ethereum is

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<v Speaker 1>still well below its all time high, which means the

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<v Speaker 1>yield story is landing, while the price story hasn't fully

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<v Speaker 1>played out yet. The first week of daily inflow data

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<v Speaker 1>is going to tell us a lot third This one

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<v Speaker 1>is wild. A crypto trader lost nearly fifty million dollars

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<v Speaker 1>on a NAVE trade and got a six hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 1>dollars fee refund as consolation. That's the DeFi equivalent of

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<v Speaker 1>losing your house at the casino and getting a free

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<v Speaker 1>buffet voucher. What happened. The trader executed a massive position

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<v Speaker 1>and got destroyed by slippage, the kind of loss that

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<v Speaker 1>happens when you're moving size that the protocol's liquidity simply

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<v Speaker 1>can't absorb cleanly. Here's the second order read. Though AVE

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<v Speaker 1>has over twenty five billion dollars in total value locked,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the largest DeFi lending protocol on the planet. A

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<v Speaker 1>single trader losing fifty million to slippage tells you two

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<v Speaker 1>things simultaneously. One, defile liquidity, even at this scale, has

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<v Speaker 1>hard limits. Two, someone was trading size that belongs on

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<v Speaker 1>a prime brokerage desk, not a smart contract. The protocol

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<v Speaker 1>worked exactly as designed. The human made a very expensive mistake.

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<v Speaker 1>That distinction matters for how you think about DeFi risk.

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<v Speaker 1>Fourth story, and this one's quietly huge. HSBC and Standard

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<v Speaker 1>Chartered are reportedly first in line for Hong Kong's stable

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<v Speaker 1>coin licenses. These are not cryptonative companies. HSBC is one

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<v Speaker 1>of the largest banks in the world by assets. Standard

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<v Speaker 1>chartered is the connective tissue of trade finance across Asia, Africa,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Middle East. If either of these institutions issues

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<v Speaker 1>a regulated stable coin, it doesn't compete with Tether or

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<v Speaker 1>USDC on crypto rails. It competes with correspondent banking on

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<v Speaker 1>traditional rails. That's a completely different game. Hong Kong is

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<v Speaker 1>quietly becoming the jurisdiction where traditional finance and crypto actually merge,

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<v Speaker 1>not just coexist. The US is still debating stable coin legislation,

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong is handing out licenses to HSBC. Let that

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<v Speaker 1>sink in and a few quick hits before we move on.

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<v Speaker 1>The CFTC issued new guidance for prediction market operators, and

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<v Speaker 1>the signal here is that they want to shape the space,

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<v Speaker 1>not shut it down. That's a meaningful shift from enforcement

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<v Speaker 1>first posture. Vtah Lick Boo tear In publicly questioned the

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<v Speaker 1>future of Life Institute after they liquidated his shiba Eno donation,

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<v Speaker 1>a rare public rebuke from crypto's most prominent don't The

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<v Speaker 1>US Treasury sanctioned more North Korea crypto facilitation networks continuing

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<v Speaker 1>the pattern of using blockchain traceability to freeze state sponsored laundering,

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<v Speaker 1>and a new DeFi protocol called AMLGAM launched on main net,

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<v Speaker 1>combining lending, borrowing, and trading into a single liquidity system.

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<v Speaker 1>Worth watching if you're tracking DeFi infrastructure. All right, before

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<v Speaker 1>we get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for. So

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<v Speaker 1>what should you actually be worried about? Three things on

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<v Speaker 1>my radar right now. First, geopolitical tail risk is being

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<v Speaker 1>ignored by price action token twenty forty nine. Dubai got

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<v Speaker 1>postponed over Iranian strike risk. Bitcoin is up anyway, markets

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<v Speaker 1>are either correctly pricing crypto as a safe haven or

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<v Speaker 1>incorrectly dismissing escalation risk. If Middle East tensions spike further,

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<v Speaker 1>the correlation to risk off assets could snap back fast,

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<v Speaker 1>and the traders who bought the digital gold narrative will

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<v Speaker 1>be the ones selling. Second. Bitcoin dominance at fifty seven

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<v Speaker 1>percent with alts rallying is a fragile setup. When dominance

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<v Speaker 1>stays elevated and alts pump alongside it, it usually means

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<v Speaker 1>leverage is building across the board, not genuine rotation. If

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin stalls, the alts that ran hardest on leverage will

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<v Speaker 1>give it back fastest. Third, and this one's a near

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<v Speaker 1>term volatility flag. There's a three billion dollar options cluster

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<v Speaker 1>sitting just above current bitcoin price levels. That's not a

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<v Speaker 1>directional signal, it's a volatility signal. Options xperies of this

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<v Speaker 1>size create gamma exposure for market makers who have to

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<v Speaker 1>hedge dynamically. The move, when it comes could be faster

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<v Speaker 1>and larger than the underlying news warrants in either direction.

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<v Speaker 1>And looking ahead, here's what's on my radar for the

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<v Speaker 1>next few days. That three billion dollar options expiry trigger

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<v Speaker 1>is the most immediate one. It could force a big

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<v Speaker 1>move as early as tomorrow. Watch the Blackrock EFB inflow

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<v Speaker 1>data closely this week. Sustain daily inflows would confirm real

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<v Speaker 1>institutional demand for yield bearing crypto products, and a rapid

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<v Speaker 1>tapering would tell you the launch was a news event

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<v Speaker 1>without follow through. And on the regulatory front, Hong Kong's

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<v Speaker 1>stable coin licensed decisions for HSBC and Standard Chartered are

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<v Speaker 1>expected within thirty days. If those go through, watch for

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore to follow within sixty days. Asia tends to move

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<v Speaker 1>in clusters on financial regulation. By the way, if you

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<v Speaker 1>want the full written breakdown with all the sources and charts,

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<v Speaker 1>check out our newsletter at tokenmetrics dot com. It's all there.

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<v Speaker 1>This is educational content, not investment advice. Always do your

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<v Speaker 1>own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.