Speaker 1: And here we go. Welcome to the Big Podcast, Welcome
to the new week, Welcome to Monday. Today is the
fifteenth day of June man halfway through the month year
of Our Lord twenty twenty six. My name is Tom Sullivan.
And well, so we got up. We've got a lot
to over. Weekends have a way of packing a lot
of things in. The big story, obviously, is I don't
know what to call it, a peace agreement, an extension
of the ceasefire, a a way for Iran and the
US to get out, to get an off ramp out
of this war that nobody seemed to want to pursue.
I don't know what to call it. But they've we
don't even know what it is. All we've been told
is spin by Iran and by our government on Oh
this is going to be great. Yeah, they're gonna well,
I mean we're getting we're getting one sided notices about
what is in this agreement, and yet nobody has seen
the agreement, and both sides are saying something different. Now
here's here is from the US. This is from our side.
Nuclear material will be destroyed and removed. Iran says no way.
Number two nuclear program will be dismantled. Iran says, no way.
Number three, none of their money will be released until
they perform. Iran is saying, we're not going anywhere, We're
not doing anything until you start releasing our money. Straight up,
horror moves will be open. That seems to be what
they're saying from both sides. Iran wants it open because
they got to sell oil. They need the money. We
want it open so that get the pressure off of
the world economy that's been hurt by this. And the
last item on this list of this Iran deal is
no Iran funding of terrorist groups. That's the Hutis, that's
has Blaw, that's Hamas and I don't nobody said anything
from Iran, but you know that they want to keep
that up. So I mean, we're I don't know where
we are. This is the most historically you can look
back and see the way that peace agreements have been
reached and how people come together and they have a
signing ceremony they're going to sign a peace agreement and
not in this case it's going to be signed. Well,
they said it was going to be signed yesterday, it wasn't.
Then they said, well, because nobody was over there wherever
there was where they were going to sign a rumor
with Geneva. Then it became well, instead of we'll do it, yeah,
we'll do it electronically. That's it digital, you know, twenty
twenty six. And you go, well, wait a minute, you're
not even going to look at each other eye to eye,
you're not going to shake their hand, you're not going
to do any of the You're going to do it
on a computer. Okay, But that didn't happen. And now
they're telling us that it's going to be signed on Friday,
But nobody is releasing the documents, the memorandum of understanding.
There isn't one. It does. I think it's talk about
fake news. I think it's fake. There isn't a memorandum
of understanding that anybody has seen. Nobody's leaking anything about
the memorandum of understanding. It's nowhere to be found. But
they're going to sign it on Friday. Now, I don't know.
You want to put some some bets down on whether
it will actually be signed on Friday. Oh, you know
Kalshi in some of those betting places. Oh, by the way,
they had Barnburner betting over the weekend for all the sports.
We'll get back to that. But that no, I mean, seriously,
do you think this is for real? Do you think
there is a document? Do you think they're just making
it up because they don't know how to get out
of this. And I know President Trump wants out of
this in the worst way, and I presume Iron want's
out of them so that we don't keep dropping bombs
on them. So this is I don't trust this. I
just I just you know this. Ronald Reagan's statement about
the Soviet Union was trust but verify. I don't. I
don't trust him, and they're not going to let us verify.
I think they are playing us for suckers. They are masters.
Everybody has said they're masters at dragging out negotiations. So
what this signing ceremony on Friday is supposed to be
is an agreement to basically start sixty days of negotiations.
We just did that. We just did that. There was
a sixty day period in which they keep coming up
to these places and stopping. Oh man, I've got this general.
He's a lieutenant general, so a three star retired. His
name is Stephen Twitty, and he's not happy with this
at all. Here's the generals.
Speaker 2: No, I don't see it that way at this point.
Let me just frame it in my view here. First
of all, I'm cautiously optimistic that this memory or random
understanding will be signed. We've heard this rhetoric several times before,
and we know that the Iranians do not operate in
good faith. And from what I understand, and this is
leaked information in the press, this will extend the cease
far for sixty days, and so we need to look
past the extension of the ceasefire and think about what's
the state here. First of all, we need to get
the nine hundred pounds of highly enriched Iranian out of Iran. Secondly,
we need to straight her her moves open. We cannot also,
so forget about the drones and the ballistic missiles. They
have the ability to impact US forces in the reason region,
US interest in the region, and also our allies across
the region instability if we don't curtail their ballistic missile
and their drone capability as well, and we can forget
the proxies out there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so the general is very very very simple. Get
the new material out. You cannot leave any of it
there and open the strait.
Speaker 3: That's all.
Speaker 1: That's all we need and we'll be happy. But what
about this stop and start, stop and start ceasepire no ceasefire,
dropping bombs, back to some sort of sixty day talking period.
The general also thinks that has been harming our ability
to win.
Speaker 2: Well, what I will tell you is that the strategy
is pretty interesting. As you know, we had a tremendous
effort by our troops doing the bombing campaign. They did
a great job. They reduced a lot of capabilities in Iran.
And when you have momentum like that and then you stop,
what it does is it allows your enemy to now
regroup reorganize. And we know that the Iranians are regrouping
and reorganizing and rebuilding their capabilities and so forth. And
so this start and stop military campaign is really not
the way to go. You want to get in, provide
overwhelming combat power on your adversary and pose your will
on them to feed them, and then after you defeat them,
then you can go to the bargaining table and say, okay,
I have the upper hand. What you have now is
the Iranians have leverage in two areas. Number one, the
straight of our moves. We see that plan out every day.
And number two, they still retained the highly enriched Uran it.
So they have two points the leverage, which makes it
difficult for us to conduct these negotiations.
Speaker 1: I know the general again, generals are politically savvy. That's
how they get to be a general. But he said, yeah,
this strategy is interesting. Whenever somebody says, oh, isn't that interesting,
and you know what they're really saying is, I don't
know about this. This sounds goofy to me. So he's
not happy with the stop and start, stop and start
military campaign that we have had. He says that that
that doesn't give you any leverage, and it gives the
up the enemy the leverage and makes for the negotiations
to be difficult. Those were his words. So I've got
I've got a number of people to to go down here,
Kareem Sagipor from the Carnigian Institute. Let's see what he
has to say.
Speaker 4: I think this is essentially a temporary pause and what
has been a hot war between America and Iran, and
we're going to go back to being in a cold
war state with Iran. What's been decided here is to
lift the mutual blockade, America's blockade up the Strait of
Homo's Iran's blockade of it as well. So that will
bring all prices down, and it will bring some economic relief
to the people of Iran. It'll bring some relief to
America's partners in the Persian Gulf that I haven't been
able to import your export as resulted this blockade. But
it does not resolve the conflict. The Thornius issues have
been deferred for future negotiations, and I'm not terribly optimistic
that they're going to be resolved in a sixty day timeframe.
Speaker 1: He's not terribly optimistic that the Thorny issues will be
negotiated in a sixty day time frame. Nobody else is either.
The JCP away that was done during the Obama administration
took two years, But that doesn't mean this has to
be that. But I mean, I don't know the clock
that keeps being put on this. Remember where we are,
this is June. So we can get the you can
you can bet that the White House is looking and
going if we can get this all solved and we
can get oil and gas prices back down again. I
mean the election isn't until five four and a half
months from now. Why by what we should we should
have everything kind of a copathetic by the time that
that's all this is about. Even the president's announcements on
true social always we're focused on oil, get the oil
moving again, the start your engines ships all about oil,
and it keeps talking about oil prices are going to
drop like a rock. Well they're coming down on this news,
but not like a rock, but they definitely are coming down.
But I I don't find anybody is optimistic about this.
Is a is a deal of any kind you and
I consider a deal? Is that we're we were even
if we're not one, we're ninety percent on the same page.
This isn't even close.
Speaker 4: Well, Iran's representatives have said that it's not going to
go back to status quoante to be an international waterway,
that they are going to charge some type of administrative fees.
Whether that's tolling individual ships or administrative fees, it remains
to be seen, but they've been open and saying that
that is their their priority. The strength of hormones now
for Iran is both a potential source of revenue and
it's a it's a it's a deterrent for them in
the future, if the United States or Israel tax iiron,
we may see them close it again. So unfortunately, this
has opened up a Pandora's box, which which didn't exist
before the war. It'll be curious to see if Iranian
officials attend that ceremony in Geneva. You know, this is
a regime which it's entire identity at aemistan hostility towards
the United States, and they're deeply aggrieved by the fact
that the United States has assassinated so many senior Iranian officials.
So I would be skeptical if we're going to see
any handshake between JD. Vans or President Trump and senior
Iranian officials. You know, if we did see that, that
would be somewhat unprecedented.
Speaker 1: Again, it's everybody's got all kinds of hesitation about this
being a deal. General Wesley Clark, he was the former
NATO commander. He has his questions too that he's thinking
along the lines, maybe just because he's a general, but
he's looking at this is going to go back to
kinetic warfare. We're going to We're going to start shooting
at each other. Eventually, And so if we're going to
do that, you basically better go get your ducks in
row with Congress. Here's the general.
Speaker 5: Apparently the access of resistance is going to be untouched,
his law is going to be there, the Iranian militias,
continuing military support to the Hooties in case they need
to close the Red Sea, and continued build up of
the Iranian missile forces. So when you look at this
on balance, it's pretty frightening. Well, I would hope he
first go to the leaders in Congress and set aside
these concerns about the war Powers resolution, because he's doing
what he can right now. He needs the congressional support,
the troops in place, and if shooting starts again, you
want the Congress and the American people behind you. And
I think he needs to come to the American people,
not in a tweet, but actually speaking to the American
people about what this means, why he did it, what
it means for the future. I think he needs to
pull the country together rather than having it divided on this.
If he can do this, he'll have greater leverage in
getting the rite outcome in these negotiations.
Speaker 1: So let's let's review, uh We're not we the God
where to go. Kareem sajitpor He says, this is a
temporary pause. This isn't going to stick. Uh. General Stephen
Twitty says, this stop again, start again, stop again, start
again has made it very difficult, not only for the
military campaign, but to try to come to some to
negotiate some sort of settlement. General Wesley Clark says, but
all the people that are the bad guys out there,
the hoodies and Hamas and his ballah and all these
all these proxies, they're still going and they still have
the power, and you know that they're going to be
firing and we're going to get back into it. We'll
probably get back into shooting at each other. So you
better go get approval from Congress while you've got the chance.
Nobody is positive about this, other than the politicians which
are spinning this. I want out of this war, find
me an off ramp. Okay, I'll take this one. It's
not the best, but I'll try and sell it. They're
trying to sell us propaganda. So the guy who has
broken most of these stories about what's really going on inside,
Barakravid from Axios. Let's see what his latest observation is.
Speaker 6: When I spoke to President Trump yesterday, he was livid
about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nataniau. And you know, he
was so angry that in two separate calls he also
had yesterday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President
Vladimir Zelenski, he mentioned to them how difficult Nataniao is
and how he's taking steps that are creating problems to
his effort to reach a deal with Iran. And one
of the things Trump told me is that he thinks
that Nataniao has no effing judgment. He used the effort
I think three times during our call in in the
context of what Nataniao did when he ordered the strike
in Beirut. And I think that Nataniao heard directly from
Trump later on that day when they spoke, and and
Trump made it clear to him that this needs to start.
Speaker 7: No.
Speaker 6: So one of the things that Trump said is that
he is aware of this, those his ballet attacks, and
he doesn't think that Israel should ignore them. But if
and I'm quoting him now, if such an attack lands
in an open area and doesn't hit anybody or anything,
then to respond by bombing by rute. He thinks that disproportionate. So,
for example, if these rallies yesterday, again in his opinion,
if these rallies yesterday attacked Rizabala targets in I don't know,
southern Lebanon or the Becca Valley, I'm sure he wouldn't care.
But when on such a Chris Bala attack, Israel strikes
be rute. This is something that, according to Trump, is
crossed his red line.
Speaker 1: So his law is firing missiles a couple of thousand
missiles since the Sea Spire went into effect. What was
that eight weeks ago? A couple of thousand missiles into Israel?
How would you like it if Mexico was sending a
couple of thousand missiles into Arizona or southern California or Texas.
What do you think we would do? Just brush it
off and do nothing. And Israel is a small country.
Net Yahoo is trying to protect the security and safety
of the people of Israel, and Hezblag keeps firing missiles
in and Trump is using the F word, chewing him
out like he like he's the boss of net Yaho.
Net Yahho is there to protect his country. So the relationship. Well,
he was talking to Putin and to Zelenski yesterday and
beaming net in Yaho. What was he talking to Putin
about yesterday? In any case, I digress. But you go
back and you look and you think this is a
total mess. Now we're ruining our relationship with our best
ally in the Middle East, Israel, and there he's getting
into a fight with guy that he's been friends with
for decades, long before he was president. So it is
truly I think the president's panicking. I think he's trying
to do he's got to get out of this, and
there's limited time left. Like I said, four and a
half months until election day. People are going to start
making their minds up if they haven't already, but they'll
do it by the end of summer, by Labor Day.
And so he's got to get these gas prices down
and down quickly. So Tom Close is an executive with
Gulf Oil and was asked about, well, when are we
going to see the prices drop like a rock?
Speaker 3: That's the sixty four thousand dollars question. Really, I mean,
you can say that Iran shut down the straight up
for mos or that the US pluck a did, but
it was really the insurance companies, and until they're very
confident that things are going to transit and exit that strait,
you know, they may not choose to ensure some of
these incredibly huge vessels. So that's what we're going to
watch very very close, So not just this week, but
for the next thirty or sixty days. You know, the
range of how much oil has been leaving the street
was on this plenty last Friday. We had estimates said
it was about three million barrels, and then the Secretary
of Energy, Chris Wright, said it was about seven million
barrels today. It was eighteen before the war, and that's
the thing to remember.
Speaker 1: Okay, So it went from eighteen million barrels a day
going through the Strait to where the world is now
hurting for oil. People have been using their strategic reserves
and a lot of oil analysts are looking in saying
that if this doesn't come to a halt and quickly
and then we're going to start getting the oil out
of the Strait of our movesment put that back into
the world oil production. Otherwise prices are going to spike
as we get later in the year.
Speaker 3: Well, there's a couple of there's really about four or
five really good reasons. Number one, and we probably would
have had a surplus in the world of about three
million barrels a day in the second quarter had we
not had the Iran war. Secondly, we've seen demand destruction
somewhere between three and four million barrels a day, mostly
in Asia, Africa, Australia, only a little bit in the US,
but some substantial demand destruction in Europe. We've seen some
oils sneaking out. And the big wild card, and the
one that I think we have to worry about as
we go into the summer is we've been selling off
the strategic reserves, not just in the US and elsewhere,
and as they run down to certain levels, you know,
you run the risk of getting to the point where
the system seizes up. So that's the big thing we
have to control, or we have to deal with in
the next few months or so. And a memorand of
understanding is a good star. But you need to see
those ships transiting the Strait of Hormos, and you know,
we'll see if demand comes back, and we'll see if
the strategic sales may end on schedule. In August September.
Speaker 1: So he says a couple of months for the insurance
companies to figure out whether they're going to ensure there's ships.
This is going to take some time. And this is
why I kept resisting whenever the President say it's going
to drop like a rock, it's coming down, coming down
on the on the news, that we're going to have
an open straight of her moves. But it hasn't been
opened all the way. And we were at sixty dollars
fifty eight to sixty two dollars a barrel before the war,
and now we're cheering about eighty. In any case, it's
who is it? The guy from gas Buddy Patrick de Haan.
He also does a size up on gas and gasoline
and how expensive and how available it will be.
Speaker 7: Yeah, probably not for majority of them. We're just at
the tip of the icebergs here, and I think everyone's
got to wait, look around and read the room, and
who wants to tiptoe through the straight of horm moves first?
So there's still some confidence to be gained here. While
the two parties, the two countries are saying, okay, well,
straight's reopen, I think that's a lot more complicated than that.
Given especially Ron's history of launching random drone attacks, it's
probably going to take a couple of weeks to rebuild
confidence of ships going through the strait. And there's really
no telllling. There may be a couple of vessels that
get through today and tomorrow. The administration's talked about forty
to fifty vessels that may grow through soon. But until
we start to see the backlog easing in ships transitting through,
we're right where we were a couple of weeks ago.
And that's really the big difference here is will ships
transit through the strait? Will the situation escalate? For now,
oil price is plummeting on the potential of the reopening
of the strait, but whether or not it's long lasting,
that's something we have to wait to see in the
days ahead. Will the straight reopen and to what degree
will shipping resume?
Speaker 1: See he has the same hesitation about getting the ship
to pick up the oil in the volume that we
saw before, so it's going to take a while. They're
talking about weeks months both of them, and then the
question becomes will the prices ever get back down to
where we were pre war?
Speaker 7: Ol Boris I mean make no mistake. I mean, though
I would love for gas versus to go back to
pre war levels tomorrow. I mean we just today got
new data from the Department of Energy showing the US
Strategic Patrol and Reserve has just fallen to its lowest
level sinceil August of nineteen eighty three. So you know
you're talking about a forty year low. It's going to
take a long period of time. It's more a can
of a garden pose filling up an Olympic sized swimming
pool or maybe even several Olympic swimming pools before we
see oil prices fully normalized. So on a daily basis,
there's not much additional supply to meet demand. And now
you're talking about potentially months and to your point, maybe
even years of oil markets taking time to normalize. For
inventory is globally to get back to pre war levels.
The biggest question really is will China increase imports once this.
Speaker 1: Is all done.
Speaker 7: They've been the wild card. The reason why oil prices
haven't gone higher is because China has greatly throttled back.
Will they jump right back in the market when the
straight reopens, Well, that's one question we're.
Speaker 3: Looking for the answer to Yeah.
Speaker 1: The China part of this is not well reported, but
the fact is, when Patrick was talking about a demand
destruction or the oil guy from Gulf was asked talking
about oil demand destruction, China self imposed demand destruction. They
cut back their oil usage tremendously. They also happen to
have we don't know how much they drew it down,
but they also happen to have about a billion gallons
of their strategic petroleum reserve a billion, so they're not
hurting for supply, and the question will be will they
open up the imports again of oil into China coming
out of Iran. The thing that also caught my ear
in that bite from Patrick to Han is that our
strategic petroleum reserve ours. Remember Joe Biden was using it
for something, I remember what it was, but it was
it wasn't It wasn't an emergency. He was using it
because inflation was going up and he was trying to
politically keep the gas prices from going too high. So
we started draining the strategic petroleum reserve. Well, we're now
down to the lowest level since nineteen eighty three. August
of nineteen eighty three, that's almost forty three years ago,
so we've got a lot of work to rebuild that.
It's going to take. It will take years, a couple
of years at least if everything goes well. So we
sit and wait until we get details about the memorandum
of understanding what's in it, because we're getting spun by
both our government and their government. So let's we're not
going to find out. The President said that he's not
going to let anybody see it until after it signed.
Why why is he hiding it? All? Right? A couple
of other items to pick up today. Number One, over
the weekend, there was a parachute jumping plane out of Missouri.
It was it had the pilot and eleven jumpers on
the plane. They took off and I don't know whether
they lost power or what could have caused it, but
they started making a left turn, stalled and crashed and
killing all twelve on board. So that's going to need
an investigation to find out why did the plane crash
shortly after takeoff? And then this afternoon out of Edward's
Air Force Base and said northern California down where they
used to land the shuttles, a B fifty two crashed
on takeoff crashed right at the bay, I mean right
next to the runway. I actually covered a BEAT fifty
two crash took off from may the Air Force Base,
oh my gosh, about about forty years ago, and that
particular crash had nine people on Well, we don't know
how many were on board this BEAT fifty two, but
it could carry a crew of somewhere around nine. But
there's no sign of any of the survivors. The question
is what caused them to crash. Admiral James Tadritez as
this about the crash of the B fifty two.
Speaker 8: Most obvious and most heartfelt. You have to realize how
difficult this is for the obviously, these families, this community,
and all who follow military operations. I've flown several times
in B fifty twos. They are remarkable machines of war
and this is a very difficult scene to look at.
The fact that evidently there were no parachutes deployed is
not a good sign. But let's not presuppose anything. But
let us hold these families and these crew members in
our hearts. Second thought, to tie these two things together.
B fifty two's are a backbone of our strategic nuclear triad,
the other two being the ballistic missile submarines and of
course are intercontinental ballistic missiles. This is the third piece
of that triad and we've built onto it. But be
fifty two go back sixty seventy years, which comes, I'm
sure as a surprise to many viewers, but they're extremely
reliable today. We have B ones and B two's. All
three of them have been used in these wars in
the Middle East repeatedly through their service life. They are
not invulnerable. They have a lot of capacity and capability,
but occasionally we will lose one in an event like this.
So point two is this is a significant strategic nuclear
weapon and also used in long range conventional strikes, for
example in the Middle East. And then a third and finally,
whenever you see an event like this, you really need
to hit hit pause on your assumptions because it could
be some kind of mechanical failure, It could be some
kind of pilot error, could be an environmental condition, although
the conditions look quite clear there. But to everyone who
is saying, gosh, I can't imagine what happened with this
vital nuclear capable aircraft, I'd encourage you to hit pause
as you mentioned, the US Air Force, will I guarantee
you tear this apart, understand precisely what happened and come
to us at the right time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's definitely sad because there are people on board
these planes. They are old, they're old, old, but like
everybody says, including the Admiral, these are very reliable planes
and they're used extensively in modern warfare. They were flying,
they roll these things out back in the nineteen fifties,
the early jet age. They're eight engines. It's an eight
engine plane. Yeah, they're not big engines, but they're eight
of them, and they are bombers, and they used them
in Vietnam, They've used them in the Middle East. I mean,
they go back to the nineteen fifties. The joke was
for years, going back, years and years ago, that the
pilots that were flying these weren't even born when the
plane was made. Well, gosh, you generations now so sadly
at Edwards this afternoon. We'll get more details as we
go along. Over the weekend, we got a little bit
of sports. We got the UFC their event at the
White House. Apparently, according to the reporting coming from it,
it was mostly young men, and that is who President
Trump wants to make sure they stay voting for him
in the future, so that he wants to make the
young men happy. Apparently, there were very few red hats
people were quizzed about. They did survey about you think
it was appropriate for the UFC to have this event
on the White House grounds. Sixteen percent thought it was appropriate.
Thirty one percent of Republicans of Democrats, No, I don't
know what's wrong with It was paid for by UFC,
and the guy who runs UFC was asked today, are
you going to do that again? And he says, no way.
That was a one and done deal. And as far
as television goes, it was only on Paramount Plus. Now
I subscribe to too many of these streamers, but I
do not subscribe to Paramount Plus because it basically it's
mostly CBS shows what you can watch another way. So
in any case, you know, good if the president wants
to do that, it's his birthday. Didn't cost the taxpayers anything, hallelujah,
More power to them. The NBA, if you haven't heard
the Knicks one, it was yeah, four games out of five,
so it was a five game series. The parade for
the New York Knicks will be a ticker take parade
down Broadway on Thursday. And as far as the weekend
for betting companies, the DraftKings and all those folks, apparently
it was a record setting weekend between the UFC and
the NBA. There was plenty apparently for people who liked
to like to gamble, there was a lot to gamble.
So we had a busy weekend Wall Street. Let's see
how they handled all of this. You know that any
kind of visitation about the war that maybe the fighting
will stop was going to be good news. And the
Dow did it. It was higher than where it finished.
It was up four hundred and sixty eight. The Dow
at fifty one six seventy one, SMP up one hundred
and twenty two. Nasdaq wow, three percent gain, up six
hundred I'm sorry, up seven hundred and ninety five points.
That's that's huge. So back to the tech ROMP. Gold
up ninety two dollars to four thousand and three point
thirty one, and oil not dropping like a rock, but
it's dropping down another three bucks. Today it's at eighty
one dollars for one barrel of West Texas intermediate crew.
That's it for today. Thank you for coming by. We
will be back again tomorrow. I hope to see you
then