Speaker 1: All right, one game left to Miami of Florida versus
Indiana for the twenty twenty six College Football Playoff and
National Championship. Who better to break it down than the
three guys you've relied on all season long, myself, Brian Power, Ross,
the Boss, Benjamin and Ralph. Michael's here with you. Three
free plays coming right up for you for Mondays Championship
game here on the Blitz. Thank you to everyone joining
us live here on the Way You Talk YouTube channel now.
Whether you're catching us live or on the replay, can
always feel free to share your thoughts and questions down
in the comments section below. While you're down there, go
ahead and like and subscribe. Now to Miami Florida versus Indiana,
the game that I don't think a lot of people
expected at the start of the season, needless to say,
Ralph and Ross, but it is the game we have
for Monday. The look aheadline. This is where I want
to start the discussion, because it has been a big
discussion on social media, at least from what I've seen,
the look ahead line for this matchup. Before Indiana destroyed
Oregon in the semi final, it was minus five and
a half now the line is sitting minus eight and
a half. Much has been made of the adjustment. Ralph,
I'm gonna go to you first. Do you think the
adjustment from the look ahead to current is fair or
is this an over adjustment by the lines makers.
Speaker 2: You know, I made the game seven and a half,
so I mean, you know we're one point away, and
let's remember this.
Speaker 3: You know, Indiana's fan base is excited.
Speaker 2: And remember the look ahead line is based on what
the handicappers think the game should be. The current line
is based on what people bet. So just because the
guy game goes from six and a half to eight
and a half doesn't mean the book makers think the
game should be eight and a half.
Speaker 3: The bookmakers think it should be six and a half.
Speaker 2: The Indiana fans betting this game make it eight and
a half. I'm gonna bring up something and Ross is
gonna make fun of me again because I was talking
about ticket sales once and he goes like, we're going
to base a play on ticket sales. You know, Indiana
has the largest living alumni base in college football. We
saw them have a massive crowd edge in each of
their two games. Indiana is expected to have a sixty
forty crowd edge here, Brian, I know we're gonna be
talking about that later. So I think I think this again,
the seven and a half is right in between. If
I had to make a choice watching these two teams
in the playoffs, I think seven and underlined would be
more legitimate of the value between these two teams. Doesn't
mean I'm going to get to the Miami side, but
I think there is a point point and a half
overreaction with the Hoosiers and the Hoosier fans.
Speaker 1: All right, Ross, I'll tell you this, if this line
was minus five and a half, I would be betting
Indiana very, very large. I'll say that. But Ralph brings
up a great point that you know, perhaps that was
a slip of the tongue that I made there when
I said odds makers over adjusting. Obviously, oddsmakers just want
to get equal action on the side of the number here.
Do you think that it has more to do with
the public. Obviously it was the second of the two
semi finals. What Indiana did to Oregon. Is this just
a deal where and look, I'm looking at the betting
splits right now. The public is clearly in love with
Indiana or early money. So is is that what you
just think? This is the odds makers anticipate. Hey, every Tom,
Dick and Harry is gonna want to bet Indiana.
Speaker 4: Its perception, you know, more than anything you know.
Speaker 5: And I'm not saying the line's not justified or Indiana
won't cover, but that adjustment from five and a half
to an opener of seven and a half to now
eight and a half.
Speaker 4: Look, here's the thing.
Speaker 5: Not only are they adjusting to what happened in the
Oregon game, they're also looking back and saying they also
crushed Alabama.
Speaker 4: It made them look like an FCS team.
Speaker 5: So they're coming off too extremely impressive performances. And when
you really look at Miami in their wins, yes they're
against a very top flight competition obviously, but it's not
like they wowed you in any of those games. So
it's also the eye test that they're basing that perception
on with the casual or novice better is going to
react to. That's just my opinion, and we're going to
talk about whether that's a home field advantage or not
very shortly.
Speaker 4: So I won't cross that line right now.
Speaker 1: All Right, A few things I'm going to point out
here before we get to that discussion of just how
many how much should Miami be getting here for home
field advantage because game is obviously playing field. But a
few things I want to point out, and Ross you
just hit on this. It's funny. There were people saying
the Oregon Indiana line was an overreaction to what Indiana
did to Alabama. Spoiler alert, it was not an overreaction
at all. I think we can all agree on that.
And then I want to compare this Indiana team to
last year's national champions Ohio State. What they did in
the playoff. Let's think back a year ago. The line.
They just couldn't keep up the line with what the
Buck guys were doing. Remember I remember the Texas game, Ralph,
the championship game against Order Dame. My initial reaction was
when seeing how much Ohio State was favored by in
those games, doesn't line looks a little bit heavy, but
you know, and based on what Ohio State was doing.
The answer was no, it wasn't. Ohio State was covering
every spread. So you know, Ralph was someone who obviously
follows Ohio State. Both remembers that team last year. Do
you have anything to say about, you know, comparing this
one Indianazon right now this year to Ohio State last year,
is anything that Yeah, Well.
Speaker 2: Indiana's makes much more sense to Ohio State to me,
because remember last year, Ohio State lost two games and
lost to Michigan. So you're talking about a team that thought,
oh my god, we're just barely going to make it
in the playoffs, had to host Tennessee, then play Oregon,
Texas and Notre Dame to get there. Indiana, on the
flip side, again, Indiana ran the table first team in
the history to win, you know, to go undefeated in
sixteen games. So to me, the Indiana run is much
more explainable to me then how quickly people jumped on
the bandwagon from Ohio State after losing to Michigan and
just running from Tennessee all the way through Notre Dame.
Speaker 5: Okay, if I could jump in here, you guys both
make extremely good points, and I agree with you, Ralph.
I also, you know, I think about what Brian just
said and why is Ohio State such.
Speaker 4: A heavy number?
Speaker 5: Lay in a heavy number with all things being considered
last year, and to me with a contrarian mindset, and
also I always profess to think like an odds maker,
you're going to be one step ahead of the average
bear if indeed you take on that mindset that would
have applied more to Ohio State last year. That's what
really stuck out to me. Last year with Ohio State,
they were a two lost team, They lost their regular
season finale against Michigan, and here they are going into
the playoffs as not a top four seed.
Speaker 4: They did not have a buy and they were a
heavy favorite throughout.
Speaker 5: So this one here, Indiana, you're looking at a team
that's sixteen and oh against a two loss team, and
you're talking about just a single digit favor for a
team that's looked really, really exceptional in the first two
playoff games.
Speaker 4: So to me, there's a discernible difference on.
Speaker 5: How I look at Indiana this year in their games
compared to what I was looking at with Ohio State
and their playoff games a season ago.
Speaker 1: I think there's one other thing we should bring up
when comparing the Ohio State championship team of last year
in this current Indiana team brand name. I think you know,
and I think there's still for some people, I think
they're still skeptical. Indiana. This is their first This is
the first time this program has ever been here on
this level. Ohio State's a team obviously that has been
that you know, has played for national championships many times over.
Speaker 5: And you know, Ralph you said, Indiana has the most
living alumni in the country, and that's why they're coming
out in full force. To me, a lot of those
fans are Bandwagon fans because most of them, in terms
of Indiana sports, are huge Indiana backers when it came
to the basketball program and all the success they've had
over the years as opposed to the Indiana football program.
But in any event, you know, if they're there and cheering,
you certainly can't ignore the amount of tickets they sold
for this game. And who knows how many they will
enter the stadium via the third party ticket brokers.
Speaker 2: So well, you know, one thing I will say this
ross Bandwagon fans may be betting Indiana, but Bandwagon fans
aren't paying four thousand dollars to get into the hard
Rock stadium.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, it's it depends, okay, if you've got
a college degree, and especially if you went on to
graduate school or whatever. I mean You're talking a lot
of those fans who are paying that four thousand dollars
are in the upper echelon in terms of people who
make an annual Serroy, So fair enough.
Speaker 2: Again, I know what's an expensive price, but it's all relative,
I mean those people.
Speaker 4: But it's interesting to look at that aspect.
Speaker 5: I mean, Rough, I don't disagree with you, but I
just I guess I'm being the devil's advocate here and
finding a way to dance around what you said, like
I like to do on a weekly basis. So I'm
not going to change now. On the last show, Rough.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you this. In our chat right now, a
WB four he's saying he's been down since day one
in Bloomington. He's he said he was there for the
losses of the mac teams. So there's one guy.
Speaker 4: I'm sure there's a lot of people like that out there,
you know.
Speaker 5: But let's face it, Brian, I mean, out of all
those people going to this game today, how many really
followed Indiana.
Speaker 4: Football over the last few years.
Speaker 5: I'm sure they glanced at the scores and and you know,
I'm sure they were excited last year. I don't recall
this kind of support for the Hoosiers last year when
they went to the playoffs, you know, so I supposed
to this year.
Speaker 4: So I don't know. There's different ways. I guess you
could look at it. Brian.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and well, and let's look at this game a
different way because we've teased, We've all three teased at
this idea. Because another interesting part of this championship game
Monday night is where it's taking place in Miami, Indiana.
You guys watched semi final against Oregon. I know that
game was played a long way from Bloomington down in Atlanta,
but that was that was a whole game basically for
I mean that that was what eighty eighty five percent
Indiana fans at that game. I mean when they opened
with the pick six my work, I mean that place,
I mean, it sounded like it was in Kurt Signetty's backyard,
for Christ's sake. But let's talk about this because I'm
very interested how much because Ralph has already mentioned that,
you know, even though the game's in Miami, they're very
well is going to be more Indiana fans in that
stadium Monday night than Miami fans. So what, if anything,
are we giving Miami for home field advantage in this game.
Ralph Siero, I want to.
Speaker 3: Tell you why.
Speaker 2: Like you said, I think it's going to be at
least sixty percent Indiana fans. Miami is the visitor, so
they are not in their home locker room. And when
you're at home, what's the number one thing you can
count on? The players can hear a quarterback cadence. You
don't have to go to a silent count. You can
audible plays and you're comfortable at home because the fans
aren't loud. That's not the case at all this week.
I don't think there's any home field edge. Actually, I
think that puts more pressure on the kids. I think
it's actually a negative. How about that. I'll give them
a negative half a point home field? Wow, this is
a positive, you know, and Ross, I'll say this. You
know you've followed the sport obviously for a long time.
Miami is not exactly known for having a strong home
field that.
Speaker 4: You should begin with through the well they did at
the Orange Bowl.
Speaker 5: Okay, yes, they used to be chaotic and going into
the Orange Bowl against the Miami Hurricanes in her heyday,
you know, back in the eighties and and such. That
was a tough environment to play, actually intimidating environment to play,
and it's not been the case since they moved to
where Miami don't Elphins play I mean hard rock, Joe,
Robbie whatever you want to call that stadium at various times.
But here's the thing, Ralph and Brian, you know, Miami
didn't know they were even going to get a playoff
berth until the committee announced the field.
Speaker 4: It was very much up in the air between them
and Notre Dame. And we remember the controversies surrounding that
topic on which team would get in and what have you. So.
Speaker 5: And secondly, national championship games a lot of those tickets
are sold in advance to the general public. So am
I saying that made a few Miami Florida fans just
wanted to see the National championship game and they bought
those tickets a long time ago, and just so happens,
the Miami made it there. Yeah, there's a few, Okay,
But at the end of the day, other than familiarity
and the plane surface in the environment, I don't think
it's a huge any kind of edge for Miami in
this situation.
Speaker 4: I agree with some of the things that Rolph said.
Speaker 5: You know, you can't even go with familiarity in your
own locker room. You're now forced to go to the
visitors locker room. So yeah, I think if there's any edge,
it's just in familiarity. And I can't put a number
on that. What's at worth maybe half a point if that.
So I just don't see an edge coming in that regard.
Speaker 1: Perhaps some tipping my hand a little bit how I
feel about this game. But I'll say is I look
at this spread. To me, if you're giving a goose
egg for home field advantage to Miami in this game,
and I concur with a lot of what you guys
just said, then this spread should be even higher. I think, actually,
you're going back to our earlier discussion. I just I
don't know when you look at what Indiana's done all year,
if you're given zero for home field avantge in the spot,
I think the spread shot even higher. I will say
this though, when it comes to the spread. Anyone who
caught the morning wager last Friday on The Picks and
Parly's YouTube channel knows I'm very comfortable with my current position.
I bet Indiana plus one thirty five to win the
championship before they bet Organs. I'm holding the plus one
thirty five money line ticket while they're now three to
one to win this game or you know, minus three
hundred to win this game. So I feel good about that.
It's a little lot. Let me get that colv Trophy
right there.
Speaker 5: Let me ask you this, Brian, how much of what
you what you're just said thinking that Indiana should be
even an even bigger point spread favorite based on what
me and Roff just said. You know, we talked about
perception and the odds makers factoring.
Speaker 4: That into it.
Speaker 5: How many people are don't have a deep dive mindset
like we do when we handicap games and see Miami's
get home, you know. So I think there's a little
careful carefulness that the odds makers did went setting this line.
And with what I'm saying is I think that Indiana,
based on me thinking that this is a very very
little advantage for Miami playing in their home stadium, this
line should be somewhere in the area of ten ten
and a half. I agree with you on that, Brian,
But I just think that, you know, the odds makers
are always factoring in the novice in general public.
Speaker 3: Brian, I got a question for you.
Speaker 1: Sure.
Speaker 2: Now, I'm not a big proponent of hedging, because if
you've got a great bet, why give it away?
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna guess.
Speaker 2: I've thought about it yet you because you said you
think the line should be higher. So obviously at eight
and a half, you're not going to hedge. If it
got the nine and a half or ten, would you
hedge back on Miami or is your number pretty well set?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 1: I would at that, And I've actually thought about just
for the hell of it, like, yeah, okay, well do
I get cute and middle this? But I'll be honest
with you. I have another, just one followup question. We're
gonna get to our three best bets on this game.
Both Ross and Ralph will be talking about the total.
I've got a player prop for you guys. I actually think,
based on what I'm seeing and people, I think Miami
money is gonna show up on game day. I could
be wrong. You know, we're recording this just in the
interest of fairness. We're recording this on Thursday, several days
before a game day. I think there's gonna be money
that shows up on Miami I think it's gonna be
similar to the Oregon Indiana deal, where a lot of
people talk themselves into the dog on that one, and
they obviously look foolish in retrospect. I know a lot
of people I respect bet Oregon in that game and
it obviously was not close whatsoever. But I what do
you guys think?
Speaker 3: Do you guys?
Speaker 4: What do you know?
Speaker 1: One day?
Speaker 3: You remember the lady when going to the game.
Speaker 2: In Florida, there's only one place you can bet sports
is the hard Rock, So either at the casino or
at their four satellite casinos, those are the only app
that you can bet sports betting in in Florida.
Speaker 3: So we're gonna see that.
Speaker 2: It'll be interesting on Monday to check what the hard
Rock numbers are versus the rest of the country nationally,
to see the people in state that are betting that
through the only legal facility they can.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good point, Ralph, because living in South
Florida for eight years like I did, I could assure
you there's a large contingent of the legal bookmakers in
South Florida. However, that doesn't affect the line that we see.
It affects their personal line. So yeah, good point, Ralph.
Speaker 1: All right, so that is some interesting points to consider here.
Speaker 2: So Brian, well, actually I'm going down I may not
go to the game, but I'm going to the hard
Rock Hotel if anyone's going there on Saturday, at Sunday
and Monday. Yes, if if it does go crazy down here, well,
actually I don't know how. I am actually thinking at
hard Rock on Sunday when the Indiana Hoo's your fans
come into town. I think we'll see a spike on
Indiana Sunday and then maybe come back game day because
those people coming in town want to bet. As soon
as they get here, they check them to the hard Rock,
They're going to the sports book. They're getting their bet
down so they don't screw up or forget. So I'll
check with you Saturday night, Bryan, to see how much
the hard Rock line actually peaks, to see if Indiana
does push it to ten, and then like you said,
then I could see a bunch of EV betters coming
in at a double digit and ramming down the you know,
the Miami line back to the eight and a half
or eight again.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Wait, we'll have a table set up for.
Speaker 3: Ralph.
Speaker 5: Will we have an autograph section and if you want
to take a picture with Rolf and him signed the
picture for you, feel free to join them.
Speaker 2: Remember the guy playing Pi Gou drinking a Miller Lite.
Speaker 1: Don't tell, don't tell Joe Dari about pie Gow. He
told me a story about he was stuck nine hours
for doing that plan with pres for about nine hours.
Speaker 5: Even drink if you're gonna drink light beer, so you
could have a beer in your hand.
Speaker 4: Ralph. Then again, I thought I was gonna.
Speaker 3: I thought, I thought this season's over.
Speaker 2: No more making fun of Ralph drinking Miller Lit, no
more bringing up like no more.
Speaker 4: I maybe over and under twelve and a half.
Speaker 5: I believe when you went to the Orange Bowl game.
Speaker 3: And they didn't go.
Speaker 2: So but I will say this, Ross, I have a
friend that said, you know, he might come down to
the game, and if he comes down to the game,
he has an extra ticket for me, he'll sell me
a face value, so I'll go.
Speaker 3: So I'm not even planning to the game.
Speaker 2: I'm just actually hanging out with the fans and the
craziness that's gonna happen. I mean, the hard Rock Guitar
Hotel is really only three miles from the hard Rock Stadium,
So I mean, there really is that entire area that's
just gonna be increasing.
Speaker 5: I I was there in the early stages when that
just opened, so I can only imagine how it looks
now because it was beautiful.
Speaker 1: Then yeah, absolutely, we do have one question rolling in
before we actually have a special offer we want to
let you guys know about, and then we're going to
go into our three best bets each of us has
won for the National Championship game. How much do we do?
It all comes down to how much you trust Beck's
passing to win. Carson Beck kind of the forgotten quarterback,
I suppose in this game with so much attention being
paid paid to Fernando Mendoza, What do you guys? I
mean Carson Beck honestly what I've seen from him so
certainly in the first two games he didn't do much
against A and M in Ohio State. I don't know,
if let me just throw this out there, Miami to
pulling ups outright? Upset? Is it Carson Beck? Is it turnovers?
Is it both A and B? Is it something else?
I'll open the floor. Ross, how about you?
Speaker 5: Well, he's played very disciplined football. You know, Carson Beck
I'm alluding to as opposed to what he did earlier
in the year when he threw a boatload of interceptions.
So I think that if he stays within himself and
he manages the game and Miami doesn't fall behind by
multiple touchdowns where they have to become one dimensional, I
think he's very capable of of pulling the upset for
my or helping Miami pull that upset. So we'll see,
you know. I again, Miami's defense is very good too.
But what bothers me with Miami's defense, Ralph, is what
we saw on the second half of the own Miss game.
We're all, Miss really had their way offensively in that
second half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, you look at that game, and remember
it was fourteen thirteen a half and the yards were
even but Mississippi. You know, actually, Ross, I'm looking now.
You know, second half, Miami actually had a three ten
to two fifty yard edge. So Miami still had the edge,
so Old Miss was able to move, but Miami was
also able to move on Old Miss.
Speaker 5: Now, I mean, I don't think Miami's gonna be able
to or uh gonna be able to put up those
types of numbers against this Indiana defense. Oh oh, miss Cole,
you know, oh miss oh, missus defense compared to even
the Final four or the final eight is probably one
of the weakest units in the in the field.
Speaker 4: So yeah, you know it's still or elf.
Speaker 5: Two hundred and fifty yards and a half against a
team that had been so dominant in the first what
uh six five plus halfs of football in the playoffs
was a little bit alarming to me.
Speaker 3: You know, I wrote down some props real quick.
Speaker 2: Just FYI, if you guys are shopping, Mendoza is about
two thirty.
Speaker 3: Obviously they change. Beck is about two ten.
Speaker 2: And if you want to bet either team to have
two hundred and fifty pass yards, you can get minus
one fifteen. Brian, I don't want to give away a
play if you're using this again, but last week I
think you used one quarterback with more passing yards than
the other.
Speaker 3: No, that was okay, I'm sorry about that.
Speaker 2: But yeah, Mendoza's minus one fifty to have more passing
yards than Beck. And you know Beck had two sixty
eight against Mississippi, but one hundred and thirty eight yards
passing against Ohio State one hundred and three passing yards
against a and m clear of me has me say
if I had to choose over under two ten, I'd
be going with the under against this defense.
Speaker 1: All right, Ralph, would you like to tell the people
here before we get into our best bets about this
exclusive special offer that we've got for all of our listeners.
Here a way to say thank you for tuning into
the Blitz every Thursday here on the WAYGA Talk YouTube
channel all season. This is, of course, guys, in case
you haven't figured it out, he lasked edition of the
Blitz for this collegeot season.
Speaker 3: It will be the one game, you know what.
Speaker 2: Let's just go back a little bit beginning of the
football season. Brian said, Hey, you know, let's get a
college college football weekly show together. And you know, we
were trying to figure out who else to add, and
Ross's name came up.
Speaker 3: And he's been an absolutely incredible addition.
Speaker 2: And I've had a wonderful time with both of you guys,
and I thank you for allowing me to be on
the panel with you, and also thank you to all
of our customers.
Speaker 3: Again, you guys have made the show what it is.
Speaker 2: We're excited about taking it to a next level last
year and the number of people that comment and we
have week in and week out again, truly, each of
us thanks you from the bottom of my heart. Start
taking time out and we just wanted to say thank
you back. We made a coupunk code. Thanks fifty than
ks five zero no space for Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday
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Power three hundred dollars or less fifty percent off myself.
That means you could buy us each for thirty days.
You could buy us each for a week, you could
buy daily packages. And I do want to mention this guys,
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Speaker 1: Okay, thanks to all of you again for that. And
I guess it's best bet time. I'll let when we
roll through our best bets, we can all talk about
what we may have up if we already have something
up for Monday's championship game. Obviously a very busy weekend
with the National Football League Playoffs Saturday and Sunday as
well Basketball roll in full steam, so a lot going
on the wayetalk dot Com check us all out. Ralph
gave you the coupon Cole, We'll give you again before
we sign off today. Ralph, I'm actually going to come
right back to you because you guys are both talking
about the total. Your bet is for the first quarter,
Ross's is for the first half, so I think it
is only natural that I would see the floor to you,
Ralph first here to get us going with our bets segment, Well, let.
Speaker 3: Me say this.
Speaker 2: We've said it the last few weeks. It's the National Championships.
It's the NFL playoffs. If you truly like a team,
bet them like you would during the regular season. But
don't force action unless you're just having fun bets on
this game. I don't think I'm going to have a
side or a total play on Monday.
Speaker 3: It's the National Championship. People want action, But.
Speaker 2: If this game we're played on a traditional Saturday with
fifty plus games, it would not make my card, So
I'll still look for some props.
Speaker 3: In some yukee situations.
Speaker 2: But I did find this, and you know I've I've
had a lot of success playing these first half unders
in these playoff games in the certain situations.
Speaker 3: And again with.
Speaker 2: These two defenses, I'm going to play first quarter under now,
dret listen to this split. DraftKings has seven and a
half minus one fifteen. FanDuel has nine and a half
at plus one oh five. You're talking about a two
and a half point different with twenty cents juice if
you have a FanDuel account versus a Draft Kings account.
In the first quarter this season, Miami has one over,
thirteen unders, and one push. In their last twelve games
in the first quarter, Miami has zero overs, eleven unders,
and one push Indiana first quarter the last six weeks
they're one five and one over under. And while they
did go over the first quarter last game, let's remember this,
they basically were shut out Indiana. Excuse me, Oregon handed
them two touchdowns for them to score fourteen points for
that first quarter to go over. Slow start, immense pressure,
both teams having loud fan bases to have the fight
with under first quarter for me seven and a half
at DraftKings, nine and a half at Fandle.
Speaker 1: All right, so that's one best bet in Ralph likes
the first quarter under Ross. Now Ralph is handing the
ball to you and saying there's not going to be
a lot of points scoring to let the first fifteen minutes,
what about the second fifteen minutes? And then as we
head into the break the first half total? How are
you looking at that one? I think we love it.
Speaker 5: If Rulph is correct, which he is most of the time,
then I feel pretty good about my pick. You know,
before I get to that real quick, guys, Brian, I
appreciate you. I think you know there's a lot of
great hosts over at wager talk dot com, but for
this specific format, I couldn't think of a.
Speaker 4: Better host to work with. Thank you, and Ralph.
Speaker 5: I tease you, I break your hump and all that
which You're a true legend in this business. And it's
been an absolute joy to work with both of you
guys throughout the course of the college football season, and
hopefully we could do it again next year. So let's
get right to my pick. It's the total twenty three
and a half in the first half and pretty much
across the board wherever you're looking or shopping at. Again,
I mentioned this last week, and it's worth mentioning again.
Miami went under the first half total in thirteen of
fifteen games this year, so in those games averaged twenty
points scored per game at halftime. And in addition, if
Miami was facing a team that allows one hundred and
twenty yards or less rushing per game, which Indiana allows
his seventy five yards rushing per game, they played six
and zero to the under against the first half total
in those contests, and also in the playoffs this year,
their three playoff games have averaged a combined fourteen point
six points per game scoreded first half action. Also, Indiana
five and one to the under against the first half
total in either away or neutral site games against explosive
offenses that average thirty one points or more per game,
and Miami certainly qualifies in that regard. This is an
Indiana team that's allowed a combined seven points in the
first half of their two playoff games against Alabama and Oregon.
Think about that, a combined seven points allowed against two
opponents that are explosive offensive teams like Alabama and Oregon,
and Miami has allowed just to combined thirteen points in
the first half of their first three playoff games and
against pretty good competition in A and m Ohio State
and Ole Miss. So I'm going to go under the
first half total here, guys. I hope Ralph is right
because if he's under the half or first quarter total,
it leads me in the right direction to have a
winning ticket on under twenty three and a half first
half total in the Miami Indiana National Championship game.
Speaker 1: Under first quarter, under first half. There you go. We
think it's going to be a low scoring start Monday
night in Miami. Smash that like button. If you agree,
feel free to comment down below with how you're betting
the total as well. I will have one play at
least on Monday's championship game. We're golf to a nice
start this week, perfect three and all the last two
days in hoops reminder twenty six and fourteen college football
run and honestly, it should be a lot better. I
had one of the worst losers I've ever had. I'm
gonna admit this right now on the Indiana Oregon game.
I was the only person rooting for Indiana that somehow lost.
On that game, I had Oregon under twenty one and
a half points and they scored twenty two thanks to
that two point conversion. I was to say that I
was upset on Friday night would be putting it mildly.
But that's okay. We've bounced back by I said three
in o last two days, and we're gonna see it well.
We're gonna close up the season strong. And I don't
think you guys in the chat are gonna like this
play that I have to rune our best bet. I'm
gonna preface it with that it is a player prop.
I see some people already who I think are thinking
the opposite, But that's okay. I've always walked against the wind.
I've always marched the beat of my own drum. I'm
taking a look at Fernando Mendoza under sixteen and a
half rushing yards for the game. Now, this bet would
seem to be pretty insane, guys, given that Mendoza has
gone over this number in eleven to fifteen games the season. Fuck,
consider the following Trinidad Chamblis, the ole Miss quarterback. He
finished with only seven yard rushing against this Miami defense
in the semi final. Outside of this one seventy three
yard run by Keiwan Lacy, all Miss range for just
forty eight yards the rest of the game. However, Interestingly enough,
and this was I think the big takeaway for me
watching Miami ole Miss, and it's something that I don't
know if it's got enough play in the analysis for
the championship game, Chambliss had more time to throw than
all of us anticipated against this Miami defense and ole Miss.
These guys laid out the yardage earlier on. Ole Miss
was very successful in the passing game. Indiana, as we
all know, has a better offensive line than all Miss,
and thus I think it's gonna hold up well here.
That means two things, what Mendoz is gonna have time
to throw, and two he's not gonna need to take
off and run as much. Similar to ole Miss. I
think it's through the air where the Indiana offense has
most of its success in this game. Conversely, let's remember
it's college sack yardage goes against the rushing total, So
if the Miami pass rush is getting home by some chance,
that's another reason to like the under on this prop.
So regardless of game script, guys, I like Fernando Mendoza
under sixteen and a half rush yards. Somebody agrees with me.
This number actually open eighteen and a half. So there
you I'm not alone after all. You know what Brian
I was looking at.
Speaker 2: I was thinking sack props, and I was thinking I
was going to take Mendoza under, right, because you watch
this kid. He is so smart, he knows how to audible,
he gets the ball out so quick. So I was
actually shocked when I looked. You look at Indiana's last
six games. He was sacked three times against Alabama, he
was sacked three times against Ohio State, he was sacked
five times against Wisconsin, and he was sacked.
Speaker 3: Three times against Penn State.
Speaker 2: That actually shocked me because watching him, I don't have
that thought process in my head that he was sacked
that many times against those good teams.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: But again, you watch him last week against Oregon and
he just you know, I'll tell you what.
Speaker 3: I thought.
Speaker 2: The kid was sort of fake, and I wasn't a
fan early. The more and more I read about this kid, listen,
he is brilliant. He is almost like mensa brilliant, He
studies things. He knew everybody's players when he came here.
He is a smart athletic quarterback that has every skill set.
Speaker 3: He deserves to gut it. Well, he doesn't, let me
say this. He doesn't deserve to go.
Speaker 1: To the Las Vegas Raiders, but he does deserve.
Speaker 3: To be the number one back.
Speaker 5: So how he's got the best looking mother in college football?
Speaker 4: Crown for Jackson Dart's mother last year. I'll tell you.
Speaker 1: Love to get Ross's mother rankings through the years. Here
on the program.
Speaker 4: Handicap ticket sales. I'm going to handicap the way the
mothers look so.
Speaker 2: All right, how about this? How many times did we
have to drink a shot every time they would show
TESTI Verdi's dad on TV back in the eighties at
the up.
Speaker 5: Game had to stop watching his games when he went
to the Browns because he had a heart attack during
the game, didn't.
Speaker 1: He's right, that's right, Yes, that is a truth. That
is absolutely a true story. Yes, that's a true story.
So I remember Bubby Brister's mom back in the day
a lot. If you're a Cleveland Browns fan, you remember
playing the Steelers. They always show Bubby's mom. All right,
is there any go ahead rawsom sorry Bobby.
Speaker 5: Brister oo nostalgia we're going after today?
Speaker 4: Yes?
Speaker 1: Or let me just go through the questions here. You
guys have been so loyal again. I would just like
to echo the sentiments that Ralph and Ross laid out.
It's been a pleasure to work with these And by
the way you've learned.
Speaker 2: Awb four, Uh, neil downs are not a sack. If
it's a if it's an a legitimate Neil down, that
does not count of sack and does not go against
the negative rush records.
Speaker 1: Yes, but oh yeah, absolutely so. And then one last
thing here uh where was the court there was a
good because we were talking about when you were talking
about beckham mondol Oh, here it is Seth. Seth is
one of our loyal viewers here on wager Talk TV.
Wouldn't it make more sense for Beck to have more
passing yards if they're supposed to be down by two scores?
So if the game script that a lot of people
are banking on here that Indiana is leading, do we
think that necessarily translates into Beck having more passing yards
a lot more attempts? Certain different trailing, But do you
guys have anything to come up to mean.
Speaker 5: While you look at Indiana's only allowing seventy five yards
per game on the ground, I said that hopefully, you know,
they don't become one dimensional Miami if they can't run
the ball. And you think that Miami's going to have
little success if any running the ball, then yeah, I
think that you would need to look at Beck's passing props.
But you know, I'm not a prop guy, so you know,
and Carson Beck to me, the guy, is he more
talented than Mendoza? No, I don't think so, but he's
been in a lot of big games going back to
his Georgia days.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: And Brian maybe this, you know, maybe you know again
we're we're picking hairs here and I'm talking about fun
bets only. But if your thought process is that if
Miami is trailing, Beck will get his yards, should you
bet Indiana first half so they are trailing to get Beck?
Speaker 4: Do it?
Speaker 3: Or do you want to hedge it, bet Miami first.
It's a lot of.
Speaker 2: Projections, but there are a lot of guys that you
can find value if you want to.
Speaker 3: Bold multiple multiple multiple.
Speaker 2: A lot of work in that I don't find the
value of spending in the time to try to do that.
Speaker 3: But that's the way you sort of have to play
out the game.
Speaker 2: If you're going to bet props, make sure you're playing
out the game in your head and see if there's
any bets getting to that situation that can benefit or
hedge for you, or find a better way to do it,
you know, you know.
Speaker 3: One example was this, you.
Speaker 2: Know, you know, Ross and I both gave out the
under right and I think the money line on Miami
was plus two seventy five.
Speaker 3: But I found something.
Speaker 2: If you think there's gonna be some points and you
like Miami on the money line, you can get Miami
at plus five hundred to win the game and both
teams to score twenty points or more. So that's not
asking much more to get a money line from plus
two to seventy five all the way to plus five
hundred both teams to score twenty points. So if you
find something you like, don't stop there. There may be
a subset or an additional thing that you can add
to even give you more value.
Speaker 1: A lot of correlated bets. Indeed, all right, guys, I
think we're gonna wrap up Ralph, you want to give
them that coupon code one more time as our way
to say thanks to everyone who's tuned into the show
all year.
Speaker 2: Thanks five zero th an Ks five zero, Ross, Bryan
or I. Anything you buy from us three hundred dollars
or less each purchase. Again, you could buy a month
for three hundred, another month for three hundred, and another
month for three hundred just to give you a little
chief code there to get a ninety day package for
the price of six months. But thanks fifty any player
package any of us have through the National Championship game
on Monday our way of saying truly thank you for
being fans of the Blitz.
Speaker 1: Yes, thanks to everyone who tuned in live. If there's
something you forgot to ask, feel free to ask the obviously.
This video will be posted the Wage talk to YouTube channel.
If you're catching us on replay, you can comment as well.
We'll be checking the comments section obviously all the way
up until pickoff on Monday. All right, I guess the
final edition of the Blitz is in the books across Ralph.
It has been my pleasure to everyone to watch. Thank
you very much back next season. Until then, let's cash
that one more ticket