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<v Speaker 1>Latest interview of Elon Musk.

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<v Speaker 2>We have a profoundly important announcement to make, which is

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<v Speaker 2>the most epic chip building exercised in history by far.

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<v Speaker 1>This is really going to take things to the next level.

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<v Speaker 2>So, yeah, a level probably people aren't even contemplating right now.

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<v Speaker 2>This is not in the OUTCOLI is a sort of

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<v Speaker 2>an out of context problem. It's not in their context.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're going to adjust the context by a few

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<v Speaker 2>orders of ninet tude. Here it's a joint effort. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>pressing the button, but the button's not working. We're starting

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<v Speaker 2>to be a galactic galactic civilization. So I think the

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<v Speaker 2>future that everyone, well most people, I think would agree

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<v Speaker 2>is the most exciting is one where we are out

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<v Speaker 2>there among the stars, where we are not forever confined

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<v Speaker 2>to one planet, that we become a multi planet species,

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<v Speaker 2>like the best science science fiction that you've ever read,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Star Trek or in Banks or Asimov or Heinlen,

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<v Speaker 2>And we want.

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<v Speaker 1>To make that real.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, not just fiction, turn science to fiction to science fact.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the glorious, exciting future that I certainly look forward to,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's worth considering sort of like, how would you

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<v Speaker 2>rate civilizations. You know, there's so there was a physicist,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was Russian in the sixties, Karta chef.

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<v Speaker 2>He thought about, at a high level, how would you

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<v Speaker 2>consider any given civilization, and he said, well, if you're

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<v Speaker 2>type one, you're using most of the energy of your planet.

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<v Speaker 2>And we actually still have quite a ways to go

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<v Speaker 2>to be properly a type one. We're still using a

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<v Speaker 2>tiny fraction of the Sun's energy that reaches our planet.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's see here we are, but the Earth only receives

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<v Speaker 2>about half a billionth of the Sun's energy.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Sun is truly enormous.

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<v Speaker 2>The Sun is a ninety nine point eight percent of

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<v Speaker 2>all masts in the Solar System. So sometimes people will

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<v Speaker 2>ask me like what about you know, other power sources

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<v Speaker 2>of power on Earth, Like what about fusion on Earth? Well,

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<v Speaker 2>that is unfortunately very small, because the Sun is ninety

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<v Speaker 2>nine point eight percent of mass in the Solar System,

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<v Speaker 2>and Jupiter is about point one percent, and Earth is

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<v Speaker 2>in the miscellaneous category.

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<v Speaker 1>We are. I think it's called saying.

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<v Speaker 2>I think might have said Earth is is like a

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<v Speaker 2>tiny dust mote in a vast darkness, very very small.

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<v Speaker 1>The Sun is enormous.

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<v Speaker 2>So the way to actually scale civilization is to scale

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<v Speaker 2>power in space.

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<v Speaker 1>This is necessarily true because we actually capture such.

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<v Speaker 2>A tiny amount of the Sun's energy on Earth, because

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<v Speaker 2>we're just this tiny dust mode. Another way to think

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<v Speaker 2>of it is roughly like electricity production on Earth of

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<v Speaker 2>whole of civilization is only about a trillionth of the

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<v Speaker 2>Sun's energy, which means if you increase civilizational power output

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<v Speaker 2>by a million you would still only be a millionth

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<v Speaker 2>of the Sun's energy. I mean, it's all inspiring to

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<v Speaker 2>consider that just how tiny we are in the grand

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<v Speaker 2>scheme of things. And yeah, we often get sort of

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<v Speaker 2>caught up in the sort of these sort of squabbles

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<v Speaker 2>on Earth that are really very sort of minor things

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<v Speaker 2>in when you consider the grandness of the universe, and

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<v Speaker 2>so I think it's it is important actually to consider

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<v Speaker 2>the grandness of the universe and what we can do

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<v Speaker 2>that is much greater than what we've done before, as

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<v Speaker 2>opposed to worry about sort of small squabbles on Earth

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<v Speaker 2>type of thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Not much point in that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we want to be a civilization that expands to

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<v Speaker 2>the galaxy with spaceships that anyone can go anywhere they want.

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<v Speaker 1>That would be epic and have a.

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<v Speaker 2>City on the Moon's cities on Mars, populate the Solar System,

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<v Speaker 2>and send spaceships to other star systems. That sounds like

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<v Speaker 2>the best possible future. So to do that we need

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<v Speaker 2>to harness the power of the zone and so a terrifab.

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<v Speaker 2>While it is enormous, a terror wad of compute. Forer

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<v Speaker 2>year is enormous by our sort of civilizational standards, it

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<v Speaker 2>is still just one step along the way of being

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<v Speaker 2>even a cotdtership. You're still have a long way to

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<v Speaker 2>go to even be a coardship two level civilization, and

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<v Speaker 2>you're not even registering as a cordtership three. So it's

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<v Speaker 2>a very big thing by current human standards, but it

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<v Speaker 2>still small in the grand scheme, and it's very difficult

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<v Speaker 2>for humans. So to accomplish this very difficult goal really

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<v Speaker 2>requires a combination of efforts of SpaceX, XAI and Tesla

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<v Speaker 2>working together to create this epic Terrify project. And Tesla

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<v Speaker 2>and XAI and SpaceX have all done amazing things that

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<v Speaker 2>people did not think would be done before.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's the gig of Giga Texas bad here, there's

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<v Speaker 1>you know.

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<v Speaker 2>The Optimists robot that's being built, there's a global supercharging network.

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<v Speaker 1>There's really quite a lot.

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<v Speaker 2>And it wasn't that long ago when people thought electric

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<v Speaker 2>cars would wouldn't amount to anything, and they were. There

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<v Speaker 2>were basically no electric cars for sale when when Tesla

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<v Speaker 2>started and people said it was impossible, and now tells

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<v Speaker 2>us making two million electric cars a year. And then Xai,

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<v Speaker 2>although it's a new company now part of SpaceX, has

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<v Speaker 2>also booked the first gigaway scale compute cluster, which in

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<v Speaker 2>record time. Jensen Wrong from a video said he's never

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<v Speaker 2>seen anything built so fast in his life before. So

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<v Speaker 2>it's a great compliment from from in video. And then SpaceX. Uh, well,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess you can read it for yourself. Well you

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<v Speaker 2>already know. I mean the reusable rockets. People said that

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<v Speaker 2>reusable rockets weren't possible, and even if you did do them,

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<v Speaker 2>they weren't be economically feasible. So we did them, and

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<v Speaker 2>then we made them economically feasible, and now we've landed

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<v Speaker 2>over five hundred times. And then we did the Falcon

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<v Speaker 2>Heavy and now we're doing Starship. And Starship is a

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<v Speaker 2>critical piece of the puzzle because in order to scale

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<v Speaker 2>compute and scale power, you have to go to space,

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<v Speaker 2>which means that you need massive payload to space.

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<v Speaker 1>And Starship will enable that. So let's gives you sort

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<v Speaker 1>of just a sense of scale.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got some optimists there, optimists for scale, and optimist

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<v Speaker 2>is about five to eleven, so it gives you a

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<v Speaker 2>sense of the size of the Starship V three rocket.

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<v Speaker 2>Stasha V four will be much longer. Actually, the Stasha

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<v Speaker 2>V four will make Starship three look kind of short.

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<v Speaker 2>So we'll expand with Sasha V three to two hundreds

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<v Speaker 2>of payload to orbit from one hundred tons. We'll start

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<v Speaker 2>with V three and then you can see that just

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<v Speaker 2>the that's just a rough approximation of the the AI,

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<v Speaker 2>the mini version of the AI SAD, so that's roughly

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred kilo whites. It's showing the solar panels and

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<v Speaker 2>the radiator to scale. So for some reason there's been

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<v Speaker 2>a bizarre debate about radiators in space. It's safe to

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<v Speaker 2>say SpaceX knows how to do heat rejection in space

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<v Speaker 2>with ten thousand satellites, and over might know a thing

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<v Speaker 2>or two. So you can see the radiator is actually

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<v Speaker 2>quite small relative to the solar panels, and we'll call

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<v Speaker 2>it the mini sad.

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<v Speaker 1>Since that's just one hundred kilo.

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<v Speaker 2>Whites, we expect future satellites to probably go to the

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<v Speaker 2>megawatt range.

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<v Speaker 1>So in order to get to the terra watt.

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<v Speaker 2>Of compute per year, you need about ten million tons

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<v Speaker 2>two over per year, and at a HydroD killer what's

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<v Speaker 2>per ton. So we're confident this is feasible, like no

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<v Speaker 2>new physics or impossible things are required to get there.

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<v Speaker 2>So I'm confident that actually that SpaceX will get to

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<v Speaker 2>ten million tons toward per year, and then we're building

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<v Speaker 2>up to a terrawatt of solar, so that solves the

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<v Speaker 2>will solve the solar problem the power generation, So then

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<v Speaker 2>the key missing ingredient is therefore a terrawat of compute.

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<v Speaker 2>So this announcement is about solving the key missing ingredient.

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<v Speaker 2>To give you a sense of what we're talking about,

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<v Speaker 2>the current output of AI compute is roughly twenty gigawats

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<v Speaker 2>per year. This chart explains why we need to build

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<v Speaker 2>the terror fat because all of the rest of the

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<v Speaker 2>output from Earth is about two percent of what we need.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you add up all the fabs on Earth combined,

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<v Speaker 2>they're only about two percent of what we need. For

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<v Speaker 2>the Terra wid project or TERRAFAB project. So you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we certainly want our existing supply chain to be clear.

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<v Speaker 2>We're very grateful to our existing supply chain to Samsung, TSMC,

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<v Speaker 2>Micron and others, and we would like them to expand as.

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<v Speaker 1>Quickly as they can, and we will buy all of

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<v Speaker 1>their chips. I have said these.

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<v Speaker 2>Exact words to them, but there's there's a maximum rate

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<v Speaker 2>at which they're comfortable expanding.

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<v Speaker 1>But that rate is much less than we would like.

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<v Speaker 2>And so we we either build the terrafab or we

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<v Speaker 2>don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so

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<v Speaker 2>well build tear fab. And we're signing off with an

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<v Speaker 2>Advanced Technology fab here in Austin, and.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe Governor Abbott is in the audience.

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<v Speaker 2>I'd like to thank Governor Abbott and the State of

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<v Speaker 2>Texas for the support. So in the Advanced Technology Fab,

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<v Speaker 2>we will have all of the equipment necessary to make

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<v Speaker 2>a chip of any kind logical memory, and we will

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<v Speaker 2>also have all of the equipment necessary to make the

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<v Speaker 2>lithography masks. So in a single building we can create

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<v Speaker 2>a lithography mask, make the chip, test the chip, make

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<v Speaker 2>another mask, and have an incredibly fast recurse of loop

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<v Speaker 2>for improving the chip design. To the best of my knowledge,

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<v Speaker 2>this doesn't exist anywhere in the world where you've got

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<v Speaker 2>everything necessary to build logic memory and do packaging and

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<v Speaker 2>test it and then do the masks, improve the masks,

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<v Speaker 2>and just keep looping it.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're not just going to do conventional compute in this.

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<v Speaker 2>I think there's some very interesting new physics that is

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<v Speaker 2>potentially that I actually I'm confident will work.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just a question of one.

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<v Speaker 2>So this is going to we're really going to push

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<v Speaker 2>the limit of physics and compute, and we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>try a bunch of wild and crazy things, which you

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<v Speaker 2>can do if you've got that fast iteration move that.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't emphasize enough the importance of being able to

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<v Speaker 2>make a chip tested and then make and then change

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<v Speaker 2>the design.

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<v Speaker 1>Do another one, and have that in a single building.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that our recursive improvement with that situation is

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<v Speaker 2>probably an order of magnitude better than anything else in

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<v Speaker 2>the world. So broadly speaking, we expect to make two

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<v Speaker 2>two kinds of CHIRP, so one will be optimized for

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<v Speaker 2>edge and inference, so that'll be used primarily in optimists

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<v Speaker 2>and in the cars, but especially an optimists because I

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<v Speaker 2>expect the robots, humanoid robots to be made ten to

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred times more than the volume of cars. So

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<v Speaker 2>you know, if vehicle production vical production growth is about

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred million vehicles a year, and I expect humanoid

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<v Speaker 2>robot production to be somewhere between a billion and ten

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<v Speaker 2>billion years a year.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a lot.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, tells is going to make a very significant

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<v Speaker 2>percentage of those is our goal. And then we need

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<v Speaker 2>a high power chip that is designed for space that

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<v Speaker 2>takes into account the more difficult environment in space where

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<v Speaker 2>you've got high power energy ions photons, you had electron

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<v Speaker 2>build up, it's a hostile environment in space. So you

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<v Speaker 2>want to design the chip, you want to optimize it

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<v Speaker 2>for space, and you also want to generally run it

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<v Speaker 2>a little hotter than you would normally run a chip

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<v Speaker 2>on Earth to minimize the radiator mass. So they're just

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<v Speaker 2>a bunch of constraints that you designed something differently in

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<v Speaker 2>space than you went on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>And for the space compute, my.

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<v Speaker 2>Guess is that is the vast majority of the compute

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<v Speaker 2>because your power constrained on Earth. Why I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>probably one hundred to two hundred gigawa's a year of

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<v Speaker 2>terrestrial chips, and probably on the order of a tarrawat

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<v Speaker 2>of ships in space, just because of power distraints on

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<v Speaker 2>the ground. Is probably that's probably how it ends up.

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<v Speaker 2>Space has this advantage that it's always sunny, it's very nice.

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<v Speaker 2>So I actually think that the cost of AI and

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<v Speaker 2>deploying AI in space will drop below the cost of

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<v Speaker 2>terrestrial AI much sooner than most people expect. I think

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<v Speaker 2>it may be only two or three years before it

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<v Speaker 2>is actually lower cost to send AI chips to space

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<v Speaker 2>than it is on the ground because in space you

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<v Speaker 2>don't need much in the way of batteries because if

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<v Speaker 2>it's always sonny and the solar power, you're going to

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<v Speaker 2>get at least five or more times the solar power

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<v Speaker 2>you get in space versus the ground, because you don't

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<v Speaker 2>have atmospheric attenuation or a day night cycle or seasonality,

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<v Speaker 2>and you're always normal to the Sun, so you're really

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<v Speaker 2>maximizing the.

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<v Speaker 1>Solar power at that point.

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<v Speaker 2>And the space solar actually costs less than terrestrial solo

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<v Speaker 2>because you don't need heavy glass or framing to protect

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<v Speaker 2>it from extreme weather events. So as soon as the

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<v Speaker 2>cost to orbit drops to a low number, it immediately

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<v Speaker 2>makes extremely compelling sense to put AI in space.

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<v Speaker 1>It becomes a no brainer. Basically.

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<v Speaker 2>Moreover, as you go to space, you get increased economies

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<v Speaker 2>of scale and things get easier over time, Whereas as

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<v Speaker 2>you try to put more and more power on the ground,

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<v Speaker 2>you run out of space and you start using up

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<v Speaker 2>the easy spots, and then you get next level numbie.

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<v Speaker 2>Nobody wants the thing in their backyard. So then so

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<v Speaker 2>actually increasing power on Earth has becomes harder over time

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<v Speaker 2>and more extensive over time, but in space it becomes

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<v Speaker 2>actually cheaper.

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<v Speaker 1>And easier over time. These are very important points.

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<v Speaker 2>What you just saw there was because of course you're

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<v Speaker 2>asking what's on your mind is, well, what do you

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<v Speaker 2>do after a terrorfab?

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<v Speaker 1>Don't think small? Well yeah, good point.

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<v Speaker 2>So we you know, how do you get to a

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<v Speaker 2>cattawat is the obvious next question, and you get there

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<v Speaker 2>by having an electromagnetic mass driver on the moon with

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<v Speaker 2>robots with optimize and obviously lots of humans, and.

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<v Speaker 1>With that you can send a petalwat. You can create

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<v Speaker 1>a pedalwat of compute and send that.

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<v Speaker 2>To deep space, because on the moon has no atmosphere

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<v Speaker 2>and has one six Earth gravity, so you can you

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<v Speaker 2>don't need rockets on the Moon. You can literally accelerated

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<v Speaker 2>to escapablocity from this surface, and that dramatically drops the

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<v Speaker 2>costs once again of harnessing power and enables you to

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<v Speaker 2>go a thousand times bigger than I tell a what.

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<v Speaker 1>So, for sure, in the.

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<v Speaker 2>Future, I want to see I want to just live

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<v Speaker 2>long enough to see the mass driver on the Moon,

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<v Speaker 2>because that's going to be incredibly epic. That should hopefully

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<v Speaker 2>get us to a millionth of the Sun's energy at

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<v Speaker 2>least humbling to think about that, but a million for

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<v Speaker 2>the Sun's energy would be a million times bigger than

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<v Speaker 2>its economy, So it's good from that perspective. And then yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>you expand beyond that to the planet, to the other

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<v Speaker 2>stars and create the most exciting possible future. Then that

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<v Speaker 2>I can imagine this looks a bit like the opening

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<v Speaker 2>an Idiocracy with the mic judge unluckying an age of

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<v Speaker 2>amazing amount. So yeah, obviously the elements of that are

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<v Speaker 2>sustainable energy, space travel and an R A I and

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<v Speaker 2>robotics that bring amazing abundance to everyone. And it's really

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<v Speaker 2>the it's really the only path to amazing abundance is

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<v Speaker 2>a I R, A I and robotics, Which is not

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<v Speaker 2>to say it can't go wrong hopefully, you know, but

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<v Speaker 2>I think it'll probably go right, and it will be

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<v Speaker 2>a future that you that you love, and.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the best future I can think of at least.

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<v Speaker 2>And then we go beyond the Moon, beyond Mars, and

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<v Speaker 2>we sail through the rings of Saturn. They wouldn't it

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<v Speaker 2>be amazing if you could buy a trip to Saturn. Frankly,

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<v Speaker 2>if you just have a trip to Saturn, I think

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<v Speaker 2>you fas would just be free in the future.

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<v Speaker 1>It sounds nuts, but.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, if you've got an AI robotics economy that

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<v Speaker 2>is anywhere close to a million times the size of

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<v Speaker 2>the current Earth economy, literally any need you possibly want

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<v Speaker 2>can be met.

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<v Speaker 1>If you can think of it, you can have it.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think in Banks in his culture books has

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<v Speaker 2>it pretty much right where there actually isn't money in

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<v Speaker 2>the future and there is abundance for everyone. If you

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<v Speaker 2>can think of it, you can have it. That's it,

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<v Speaker 2>which means anyone could have a trip to Saturn. It

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<v Speaker 2>won't be you know, just a few people. If you

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<v Speaker 2>want it, you can have it. Yeah, join us on

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<v Speaker 2>this journey and help us design incredible chips and make

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<v Speaker 2>incredible ships and build a terror wat of ships, a

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<v Speaker 2>terra awadi of solar and tell million tons to over

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<v Speaker 2>it per year.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.