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Speaker 1: Latest interview of Elon Musk.

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Speaker 2: We have a profoundly important announcement to make, which is

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the most epic chip building exercised in history by far.

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Speaker 1: This is really going to take things to the next level.

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Speaker 2: So, yeah, a level probably people aren't even contemplating right now.

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This is not in the OUTCOLI is a sort of

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an out of context problem. It's not in their context.

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So we're going to adjust the context by a few

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orders of ninet tude. Here it's a joint effort. I'm

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pressing the button, but the button's not working. We're starting

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to be a galactic galactic civilization. So I think the

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future that everyone, well most people, I think would agree

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is the most exciting is one where we are out

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there among the stars, where we are not forever confined

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to one planet, that we become a multi planet species,

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like the best science science fiction that you've ever read,

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you know, Star Trek or in Banks or Asimov or Heinlen,

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And we want.

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Speaker 1: To make that real.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, not just fiction, turn science to fiction to science fact.

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That's the glorious, exciting future that I certainly look forward to,

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and it's worth considering sort of like, how would you

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rate civilizations. You know, there's so there was a physicist,

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I think it was Russian in the sixties, Karta chef.

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He thought about, at a high level, how would you

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consider any given civilization, and he said, well, if you're

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type one, you're using most of the energy of your planet.

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And we actually still have quite a ways to go

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to be properly a type one. We're still using a

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tiny fraction of the Sun's energy that reaches our planet.

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Let's see here we are, but the Earth only receives

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about half a billionth of the Sun's energy.

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Speaker 1: So the Sun is truly enormous.

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Speaker 2: The Sun is a ninety nine point eight percent of

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all masts in the Solar System. So sometimes people will

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ask me like what about you know, other power sources

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of power on Earth, Like what about fusion on Earth? Well,

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that is unfortunately very small, because the Sun is ninety

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nine point eight percent of mass in the Solar System,

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and Jupiter is about point one percent, and Earth is

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in the miscellaneous category.

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Speaker 1: We are. I think it's called saying.

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Speaker 2: I think might have said Earth is is like a

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tiny dust mote in a vast darkness, very very small.

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Speaker 1: The Sun is enormous.

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Speaker 2: So the way to actually scale civilization is to scale

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power in space.

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Speaker 1: This is necessarily true because we actually capture such.

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Speaker 2: A tiny amount of the Sun's energy on Earth, because

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we're just this tiny dust mode. Another way to think

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of it is roughly like electricity production on Earth of

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whole of civilization is only about a trillionth of the

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Sun's energy, which means if you increase civilizational power output

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by a million you would still only be a millionth

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of the Sun's energy. I mean, it's all inspiring to

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consider that just how tiny we are in the grand

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scheme of things. And yeah, we often get sort of

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caught up in the sort of these sort of squabbles

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on Earth that are really very sort of minor things

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in when you consider the grandness of the universe, and

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so I think it's it is important actually to consider

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the grandness of the universe and what we can do

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that is much greater than what we've done before, as

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opposed to worry about sort of small squabbles on Earth

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type of thing.

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Speaker 1: Not much point in that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we want to be a civilization that expands to

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the galaxy with spaceships that anyone can go anywhere they want.

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Speaker 1: That would be epic and have a.

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Speaker 2: City on the Moon's cities on Mars, populate the Solar System,

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and send spaceships to other star systems. That sounds like

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the best possible future. So to do that we need

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to harness the power of the zone and so a terrifab.

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While it is enormous, a terror wad of compute. Forer

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year is enormous by our sort of civilizational standards, it

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is still just one step along the way of being

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even a cotdtership. You're still have a long way to

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go to even be a coardship two level civilization, and

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you're not even registering as a cordtership three. So it's

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a very big thing by current human standards, but it

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still small in the grand scheme, and it's very difficult

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for humans. So to accomplish this very difficult goal really

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requires a combination of efforts of SpaceX, XAI and Tesla

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working together to create this epic Terrify project. And Tesla

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and XAI and SpaceX have all done amazing things that

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people did not think would be done before.

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Speaker 1: So there's the gig of Giga Texas bad here, there's

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you know.

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Speaker 2: The Optimists robot that's being built, there's a global supercharging network.

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Speaker 1: There's really quite a lot.

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Speaker 2: And it wasn't that long ago when people thought electric

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cars would wouldn't amount to anything, and they were. There

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were basically no electric cars for sale when when Tesla

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started and people said it was impossible, and now tells

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us making two million electric cars a year. And then Xai,

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although it's a new company now part of SpaceX, has

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also booked the first gigaway scale compute cluster, which in

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record time. Jensen Wrong from a video said he's never

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seen anything built so fast in his life before. So

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it's a great compliment from from in video. And then SpaceX. Uh, well,

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I guess you can read it for yourself. Well you

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already know. I mean the reusable rockets. People said that

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reusable rockets weren't possible, and even if you did do them,

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they weren't be economically feasible. So we did them, and

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then we made them economically feasible, and now we've landed

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over five hundred times. And then we did the Falcon

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Heavy and now we're doing Starship. And Starship is a

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critical piece of the puzzle because in order to scale

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compute and scale power, you have to go to space,

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which means that you need massive payload to space.

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Speaker 1: And Starship will enable that. So let's gives you sort

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of just a sense of scale.

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Speaker 2: We've got some optimists there, optimists for scale, and optimist

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is about five to eleven, so it gives you a

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sense of the size of the Starship V three rocket.

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Stasha V four will be much longer. Actually, the Stasha

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V four will make Starship three look kind of short.

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So we'll expand with Sasha V three to two hundreds

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of payload to orbit from one hundred tons. We'll start

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with V three and then you can see that just

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the that's just a rough approximation of the the AI,

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the mini version of the AI SAD, so that's roughly

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one hundred kilo whites. It's showing the solar panels and

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the radiator to scale. So for some reason there's been

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a bizarre debate about radiators in space. It's safe to

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say SpaceX knows how to do heat rejection in space

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with ten thousand satellites, and over might know a thing

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or two. So you can see the radiator is actually

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quite small relative to the solar panels, and we'll call

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it the mini sad.

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Speaker 1: Since that's just one hundred kilo.

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Speaker 2: Whites, we expect future satellites to probably go to the

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megawatt range.

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Speaker 1: So in order to get to the terra watt.

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Speaker 2: Of compute per year, you need about ten million tons

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two over per year, and at a HydroD killer what's

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per ton. So we're confident this is feasible, like no

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new physics or impossible things are required to get there.

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So I'm confident that actually that SpaceX will get to

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ten million tons toward per year, and then we're building

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up to a terrawatt of solar, so that solves the

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will solve the solar problem the power generation, So then

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the key missing ingredient is therefore a terrawat of compute.

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So this announcement is about solving the key missing ingredient.

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To give you a sense of what we're talking about,

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the current output of AI compute is roughly twenty gigawats

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per year. This chart explains why we need to build

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the terror fat because all of the rest of the

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output from Earth is about two percent of what we need.

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So if you add up all the fabs on Earth combined,

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they're only about two percent of what we need. For

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the Terra wid project or TERRAFAB project. So you know,

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we certainly want our existing supply chain to be clear.

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We're very grateful to our existing supply chain to Samsung, TSMC,

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Micron and others, and we would like them to expand as.

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Speaker 1: Quickly as they can, and we will buy all of

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their chips. I have said these.

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Speaker 2: Exact words to them, but there's there's a maximum rate

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at which they're comfortable expanding.

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Speaker 1: But that rate is much less than we would like.

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Speaker 2: And so we we either build the terrafab or we

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don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so

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well build tear fab. And we're signing off with an

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Advanced Technology fab here in Austin, and.

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Speaker 1: I believe Governor Abbott is in the audience.

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Speaker 2: I'd like to thank Governor Abbott and the State of

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Texas for the support. So in the Advanced Technology Fab,

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we will have all of the equipment necessary to make

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a chip of any kind logical memory, and we will

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also have all of the equipment necessary to make the

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lithography masks. So in a single building we can create

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a lithography mask, make the chip, test the chip, make

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another mask, and have an incredibly fast recurse of loop

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for improving the chip design. To the best of my knowledge,

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this doesn't exist anywhere in the world where you've got

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everything necessary to build logic memory and do packaging and

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test it and then do the masks, improve the masks,

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and just keep looping it.

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Speaker 1: So we're not just going to do conventional compute in this.

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Speaker 2: I think there's some very interesting new physics that is

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potentially that I actually I'm confident will work.

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Speaker 1: It's just a question of one.

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Speaker 2: So this is going to we're really going to push

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the limit of physics and compute, and we're going to

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try a bunch of wild and crazy things, which you

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can do if you've got that fast iteration move that.

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I can't emphasize enough the importance of being able to

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make a chip tested and then make and then change

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the design.

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Speaker 1: Do another one, and have that in a single building.

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Speaker 2: I think that our recursive improvement with that situation is

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probably an order of magnitude better than anything else in

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the world. So broadly speaking, we expect to make two

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two kinds of CHIRP, so one will be optimized for

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edge and inference, so that'll be used primarily in optimists

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and in the cars, but especially an optimists because I

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expect the robots, humanoid robots to be made ten to

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one hundred times more than the volume of cars. So

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you know, if vehicle production vical production growth is about

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one hundred million vehicles a year, and I expect humanoid

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robot production to be somewhere between a billion and ten

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billion years a year.

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Speaker 1: So it's a lot.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, tells is going to make a very significant

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percentage of those is our goal. And then we need

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a high power chip that is designed for space that

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takes into account the more difficult environment in space where

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you've got high power energy ions photons, you had electron

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build up, it's a hostile environment in space. So you

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want to design the chip, you want to optimize it

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for space, and you also want to generally run it

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a little hotter than you would normally run a chip

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on Earth to minimize the radiator mass. So they're just

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a bunch of constraints that you designed something differently in

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space than you went on the ground.

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Speaker 1: And for the space compute, my.

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Speaker 2: Guess is that is the vast majority of the compute

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because your power constrained on Earth. Why I think it's

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probably one hundred to two hundred gigawa's a year of

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terrestrial chips, and probably on the order of a tarrawat

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of ships in space, just because of power distraints on

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the ground. Is probably that's probably how it ends up.

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Space has this advantage that it's always sunny, it's very nice.

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So I actually think that the cost of AI and

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deploying AI in space will drop below the cost of

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terrestrial AI much sooner than most people expect. I think

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it may be only two or three years before it

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is actually lower cost to send AI chips to space

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than it is on the ground because in space you

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don't need much in the way of batteries because if

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it's always sonny and the solar power, you're going to

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get at least five or more times the solar power

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you get in space versus the ground, because you don't

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have atmospheric attenuation or a day night cycle or seasonality,

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and you're always normal to the Sun, so you're really

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maximizing the.

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Speaker 1: Solar power at that point.

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Speaker 2: And the space solar actually costs less than terrestrial solo

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because you don't need heavy glass or framing to protect

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it from extreme weather events. So as soon as the

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cost to orbit drops to a low number, it immediately

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makes extremely compelling sense to put AI in space.

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Speaker 1: It becomes a no brainer. Basically.

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Speaker 2: Moreover, as you go to space, you get increased economies

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of scale and things get easier over time, Whereas as

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you try to put more and more power on the ground,

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you run out of space and you start using up

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the easy spots, and then you get next level numbie.

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Nobody wants the thing in their backyard. So then so

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actually increasing power on Earth has becomes harder over time

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and more extensive over time, but in space it becomes

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actually cheaper.

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Speaker 1: And easier over time. These are very important points.

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Speaker 2: What you just saw there was because of course you're

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asking what's on your mind is, well, what do you

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do after a terrorfab?

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Speaker 1: Don't think small? Well yeah, good point.

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Speaker 2: So we you know, how do you get to a

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cattawat is the obvious next question, and you get there

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by having an electromagnetic mass driver on the moon with

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robots with optimize and obviously lots of humans, and.

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Speaker 1: With that you can send a petalwat. You can create

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a pedalwat of compute and send that.

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Speaker 2: To deep space, because on the moon has no atmosphere

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and has one six Earth gravity, so you can you

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don't need rockets on the Moon. You can literally accelerated

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to escapablocity from this surface, and that dramatically drops the

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costs once again of harnessing power and enables you to

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go a thousand times bigger than I tell a what.

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Speaker 1: So, for sure, in the.

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Speaker 2: Future, I want to see I want to just live

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long enough to see the mass driver on the Moon,

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because that's going to be incredibly epic. That should hopefully

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get us to a millionth of the Sun's energy at

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least humbling to think about that, but a million for

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the Sun's energy would be a million times bigger than

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its economy, So it's good from that perspective. And then yeah,

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you expand beyond that to the planet, to the other

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stars and create the most exciting possible future. Then that

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I can imagine this looks a bit like the opening

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an Idiocracy with the mic judge unluckying an age of

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amazing amount. So yeah, obviously the elements of that are

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sustainable energy, space travel and an R A I and

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robotics that bring amazing abundance to everyone. And it's really

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the it's really the only path to amazing abundance is

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a I R, A I and robotics, Which is not

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to say it can't go wrong hopefully, you know, but

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I think it'll probably go right, and it will be

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a future that you that you love, and.

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Speaker 1: It's the best future I can think of at least.

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Speaker 2: And then we go beyond the Moon, beyond Mars, and

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we sail through the rings of Saturn. They wouldn't it

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be amazing if you could buy a trip to Saturn. Frankly,

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if you just have a trip to Saturn, I think

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you fas would just be free in the future.

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Speaker 1: It sounds nuts, but.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you've got an AI robotics economy that

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is anywhere close to a million times the size of

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the current Earth economy, literally any need you possibly want

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can be met.

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Speaker 1: If you can think of it, you can have it.

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Speaker 2: So I think in Banks in his culture books has

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it pretty much right where there actually isn't money in

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the future and there is abundance for everyone. If you

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can think of it, you can have it. That's it,

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which means anyone could have a trip to Saturn. It

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won't be you know, just a few people. If you

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want it, you can have it. Yeah, join us on

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this journey and help us design incredible chips and make

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incredible ships and build a terror wat of ships, a

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terra awadi of solar and tell million tons to over

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it per year.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.