Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Tuesday morning. Time for Total Bases.
We have hit the home stretch of the first half.
Four shows left for us today, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and
then we are at the MLB All Star Break. I
actually can't believe how quickly the first half has gone by.
But there's still money to be made this week and
I look to do it as we do every day
with Brian Leonard and Tokyo Brandon.
Speaker 2: We've got a great slate. We have a full slate
of MLB.
Speaker 1: We're going to talk as many games as we can,
and I think the feature today is going to be
Dodgers Brewers. We've got a legend who has been put
on the All Star team, which you know what, I'm
fine with that. I decided I'm fine with that. It's
good for the game of baseball to have Clayton Kershaw celebrated.
He's had such an incredible career, so I'm fine with that.
He's not an All Star this year, but it's neither
here nor there. He's up against a kid that's probably
going to be an All Star many times for years
to come. And Jake up Miserowski, my hat the MB
is not Milwaukee Brewers.
Speaker 2: I'll give Brian.
Speaker 1: Leonard a chance to guess that at some point in
time throughout the show. But the Brewers and the Dodgers
are our feature game today. Brewers go up big and
never looked back last night, Brian Leonard, how are you
handicapping this one, the young kid versus the old veteran
Brewers Dodgers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if Miserowski remains healthy. Yes. The problem is anybody
who has thrown one hundred and three miles an hour
gets hurt, and we saw that happen to the break
of the Red's best pitcher this year. He's avoided it
for the last few years and he's the one guy
who didn't have have the problem, but he's missed some
time this year, so it's going to happen. Unfortunately. We
like the speed, but it's sort of like out racing
the faster they go with the chance I get to
be in an accident, and that's what you're going to
get out of Milwaukee and Miserawski. But this is a
very interesting game. As you mentioned, Kershaw coming off that
big three thousand strikeout game could have been a possible
let now, but since the Dodgers are playing lousy in
the last week. I don't think they'll have a letdown
in this game against Milwaukee. And Brandon and I have
gone back and forth on the Brewers, and I know
he loves the Dodgers. All I got to say is
if this season ended right now, the Brewers would only
be four and a half games behind the Dodgers, who
everybody thinks is the best team in baseball. If you
look at run differential, the Dodgers only have a four
run better run differential than the Brewers. So as much
as he thinks the Brewers are not very good, I
totally disagree. I like the future on this team. And
we'll get to today's game here with the Brewers and
the Dodgers. By the way, a lot of stadium in
the let's just say from Saint Louis to New York
area or go get a lot of rain today, So
keep that in mind when you're placing your bets. I
think Yankee Stadium has probably got the best chance of
getting rained out. But there is a lot of problems
with whether today getting to the actual game of the
Dodgers and the Brewers. As I mentioned Kershaw, he's amazingly
pitched pretty well this year to a three point four
to three ERA expected, the ERA four point one eight
we have one point twenty five. But other than a
barrel rate in the eighty third percentile, ground ball rate
in the sixty eighth percentile, he's got some uggly numbers
up there. Fastball velocity second percentile, we've known that he
hasn't had that for a few years now. He's lost
a lot of his velocity of the fastball average EXSA
velocity third percentile. He's getting hit hard hardy rate fourth percentile.
So even though his number has been pretty good and
he comes into four and zero on the season, he's
not a guy that has a lot of strikeouts and
he gets hit hard, and that is a concern when
you're playing a team like the Dodgers, who are going
to be favorites just about every time they hit the
road and or at home. Misowski his numbers are still
trying to work their way out. He's only thrown nineteen
point or two thirds innings three point two OERA two
point four to six expected, zero point nine to two whip.
That is the good part. The problem is his walk
rate twelve point two. That wasn't a problem in his
first three starts, but last time out he did lose
it a little bit from the walk rate. And the
Dodgers are a team that will take some pitchers. They
are a veteran team. So he's got a twenty eight
point four strikeout percentage, twelve point two walk rate, which
is sixteen point two. That's slightly better than the league average.
And he's only thrown four games. Extension ninety eight percentile,
fastball velostity ninety eighth percentile. That means you can blow
anybody away if he is on, I just don't have
enough time to react to him, and that's what he
has done thus far. But I do have some concerns
about that walk right. He was there in the minors
and it's starting to show a little bit in the major.
Should be a fun game, really good game. The line
tells you that the teams are pretty close to even.
Here we're looking at the Dodgers. Maybe a one twenty
favorite with a total of eight and a half should
be a fun game to watch. Unfortunately, I won't get involved.
Speaker 4: So yeah, we have been going back and forth about
the Brewers and Dodgers, and yes, the Brewers do have
a decent record. But objectively speaking, what do you think
the Brewers' chances of making the World Series are? And
what do you think the chances of the Dodgers making
the World Series are? So just put that in your
mind and think about it. I mean, yesterday, yeah, the
Brewers won. Frankly, I've been watching the Dodgers games and
they look like a team that's pretty much mailed the
first half in. They don't seem to even be trying
at this point. I think basically they're just holding their
breath until the White Sox series starts, and then they'll
maybe try and win two of those games. I don't
think they really care about winning these games, to be honest.
I mean, watching them, they look like a team that
does not care one bit. And if you saw the
pitchers that they were thrown out there last night, Fernandez
and like just I mean guys who shouldn't even be
in the major leagues. And looking at the numbers, current
form and everything, Brewers have an edge on the Dodgers
in every category. I know that seems strange for me
to say, since I've been trashing them so bad, but
you know, winning a couple of games here and there
doesn't mean they're a World Series team. It would have
to be Brewers or nothing here, because honestly, the Dodgers
don't seem to really care. I probably won't play this game, though,
but I can't see the Dodgers winning it. I could
be wrong.
Speaker 1: Well, I think you're right about the Dodgers just in general,
Like it's made the Dodgers a very tough handicap because
I'm with you like the Dodgers, I don't think we're
even seeing close to the full sort of like what
the Dodgers could be come September, or what they should
be at their full capacity. It does feel like they're
going through the motions at times. Tokyo Brandons, I agree.
Speaker 2: With you there.
Speaker 1: Yet, they're twenty games over five hundred, So how good
is this team? If that's they're twenty games over five hundred,
fifty six and thirty six entering play tonight. How good
is this team when they're fully engaged, when they've got
their their full compliment of pitchers.
Speaker 2: That's what makes it so tough.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what makes it so difficult to bet against
this team on a day to day basis. That being said,
like right now, the Brewers are playing better ball. The
Brewers are eight. See here's the thing. The Brewers are
a very good baseball team. Do they end up in
the World Series? Probably not. Could they be in the
mix come September? I definitely think so. The only thing
that makes it tough for the Brewers is there in
the end. If the Brewers were in the American League,
I might put them in the World Series. Like they're
just they're they're They've got the tough luck of the
draw this year. With the fact that they're going to
be on the same side competing with the Cubs, the Mets,
the Dodgers, you know, they're in a much tougher scenario
than let's say, a team like the Tigers, who could
very well be the best team in the American League
right now. Those two teams not that different Brewers and Tigers.
In my opinion, I think that's just an interesting talking point.
Mizerowski's a stud. He's going to be great game the game.
Who knows, because he's a young kid. As Brian said,
he's got he's got the command issues, and the Dodgers
are certainly a team that can exploit that. My gut
says under here, I'm not going to have a play.
And I'm going to go back to Brian Leonard. What
do you got to add you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, two things. We went through the same thing last
year before the season, Brandon was really big on the
Dodgers setting a record and this year the same way.
And I told him, I said, the problem is they're
so good they it's hard to get up for every
single game. What I would say is when they play
divisional rivals, the Padres, the Giants of the like, those
are the games I would want to play on the
Dodgers if the line is good, because all they have
to do is win their division and they're set up
for the playoffs. That's all they care about. And they've
got so many pitchers that are coming back from injury
right now, and we saw she coming back. I think
she is going to be a fixture in the in
the rotation the rest of the year. They're loaded when
they get those guys back, and they're just fighting their
way through it. And this is not the same Dodgers
team that we will see once the playoffs.
Speaker 4: Come, Big five second come in here. The Dodgers are
on pace to have sixty wins at the All Star break.
That's on pace for one hundred and twenty wins on
the season.
Speaker 3: So there's now the All Star break is coming late
in the season. Right now, the Dodgers have already played games,
so you can't do that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I stand correct.
Speaker 2: The second half's always short. Why I'm not quite sure.
But anyway, first of all, shout out Carmin and Bianco.
He's in the chat.
Speaker 1: Not only is he in the chat watching the show,
he's getting on the viewers to like and subscribe, making
my job so much easier. So shout out to Carmine.
Does not need to be doing that, but he is,
and we appreciate it. We appreciate all of you guys
tuning in. All right, A couple of people in the
chat had figured out the hat. Brian Leonard, do you
have a guess as to what the hat is?
Speaker 3: Oh, I will guess. I don't know the color scheme,
but I would guess Myrtle Beach.
Speaker 2: That's correct.
Speaker 1: It is the Myrtle Beach Pelicans. We had two people
in the chat get it. Shaw Nance is one of them,
and t Moss getting the Myrtle Beach Pelicans hat. It
is a transition here for me as well to the
next game. We're going to talk about the guy that
was wearing this hat the beginning of the twenty twenty
two season was Pete Crow Armstrong. This is the a
affiliate for the Chicago Cubs down in Myrtle Beach. I've
been to like six Pelicans games because my family for
years and years vacation in Myrtle Beach actually a little
town called Garden City outside of Myrtle Beach. And you know,
I'm not a huge beach guy, so like the highlight
of my Myrtle Beach vacation pretty much every year was
getting over to Pelicans Ballpark to see a Myrtle Beach
Pelicans game. I actually went the very first year they
were a team, Brian Leonard. I think I was in
like eighth grade, seventh eighth grade. They used to be
a Braves affiliate, and somewhere I have a ball with
the Raphael for Call's signature on it when he was
a Pelican back in the day.
Speaker 2: So have been there a bunch of times.
Speaker 1: It's a great little ballpark and they are now the
a affiliate for the Cubs, and a guy by the
name of Pete car Armstrong started his season there in
twenty twenty two. He's now much more than a Myrtle
Beach Pelican. He could be the envy Well, he's in
the conversation to be one of the to be an
MVP of the league this year. I remember when he
got traded to the Cubs and he kind of was like,
he was like shocked they traded him, said they never
talked to him about it, and he thought it was
a joke. He's kind of like he's proved to be right.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you have to always go back and look at
where teams were at the time. The Mets needed bias
at the time. But what a trait that has been
for the Chicago Cubs, arguably what has vaulted them into
being what I think is the more legitimate NL contender
to the Dodgers than a team like the Brewers. I
really think this Cubs team is going to be their
long term this year. And so our guy Yamamoto didn't
have a great day yesterday. We have another Japanese pitcher
on the mound here. I think he fares a little
bit better than than Yamamoto, Brian Leonards, So talk to me.
Cubs Twins, Imanaga, Simeon Woods, Richardson in Minnesota tonight.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Imanaga lefty going against Woods. You're ready?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 3: About one twenty six is the favorite Cubs total of
nine in this game?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 3: Iaga last time out? Uh did not perform as I expected.
Gave up three earn the runs and five and a
third innings to the Cleveland Guardians. That was our losery
yesterday in my part of the parlay four innings a
shutout ball. All of a sudden, once you get to
the fifth inning, Cleveland has started to hit. I don't
know if I buy you into it a whole lot,
but Minaga had thrown two shutouts five innings, both times
against the car against the Cardinals, and then he gave
up two runs against the Brewers before that, so he's
been pitching pretty well. The one before that against the
Pirates through a shutout, so he's been very consistent coming
off one of his lesser starts. Two point seven to
eight e RA on the season, and his expected ERA
is let's see four point one to three. His whip
one point zero zero. He's got a lot of red
and a lot of blue on his cards, so he's
not as impressive as you would you would think. First
of all, his strike upercentage is really down this year.
Last year he came in with it, he had a
twenty five point one percentage. Now it's down to eighteen
point seven. That could very well be injury because he
has missed some time this year, so you got to
kick that in mind. But his ground ball percentage second
percentile means he's a big fly ball hitter or folletball pitcher.
Fastball velocity ninth percentile, fastball run value eighth percentile, bear
all right, nineteenth percentile. He's a tough guy right now
to put a lot of stock in, but from what
he's done in the past, we could see another good
outing from him. Woods Richardson is basically a guy who's
your last guy in the Minnesota rotation while they wait
for some other guys to get back. Four point four
to one ERA, four point three six expected lifetime in
four seasons, four point three five ERA. He's a guy
does have a pretty high whip one point three to
two overall, well, got good extension of seventy eight percentile,
but that's about it. Ground ball rate, he's also a
flyball pitcher. Ground ball rate ninth percentile, barrel rate ten
percentile all spreed run value fifth percentile. Not a good combination.
So when I take a look at this game, I
like the over a little bit, but open eight and
a half twenty to the over. Now it's nine to
fifteen to the over. It's tough playing over as the
way Minnesota offense has been, but I think Chicago will
have some success. Let's take a quick look here on
the team total for the Cubs. We're looking at four
and a half over, maybe twenty five. That's not a
bad bet, either the game over or the Cubs team
total over, or probably the way I would approach this game.
Speaker 4: Yeah, imon Aga interesting. He pitches much better on the
road than he does at home. He's era on the
road in twenty seven innings, decent sample size is under two,
and he's got great numbers against Minnesota, but it's a
small sample size as well. It's only seventeen at bats against,
but he handled them quite easily. Woods Richardson is interesting.
He's very inconsistent. He can go five innings nowhere and runs,
and then the next game he'll give up six. Next
game he'll give up zero, next game he'll give up five.
So he's wildly inconsistent, But one thing I did notice
about that well, going through the ratings of both teams, obviously,
I think the Cubs. Yeah, the Cubs rank better at
almost everything. Their bullpen's playing better than Minnesota's, their lineups
hitting better than Minnesota's, and I have the two starting
pitchers including expected values. I have the two starting pitchers
basically equal. One interesting stat, so I would go with
the Cubs if anything. One interesting stat though, im and
n Aga. He walks less than one guy per start,
and and the Minnesota walks only about two point three
per game. So if you average that together, I project
Imanaga's walks so Imanaka is the opposite of a chronic walker.
He walked, I project him to only walk one point seven,
so I would think under one point five walks for
Emanaga would also be a decent bet in this game.
So if I'm going to bet it, I would either
go with the Cubs or Imanaga's walks under.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have a theme here.
Speaker 1: Young guys at the Mets have given up on Simeon
Woods richardson second round pick of the Mets back in
twenty eighteen.
Speaker 2: I think he's on.
Speaker 1: His like third or I think this is like his
third organization now though they gave up on him early,
but neither here nor there.
Speaker 2: I've given up on him a while ago too, Guys.
Speaker 1: I'm with G Hurt, our guy, G Hurt, And you know,
I don't expect him to like the Twins in any capacity.
I know he's a Tigers fan, he says Simeon Woods
Richardson is a huge faith I very much agree with that.
He's been a fade for me most of the year.
Ethan Bainbridge line feels short for the Cubs. I agree
with that as well. And I had David's comment up
a second ago where he says, maybe some some PCA props. Yeah,
this seems like a good matchup for pret Crow Armstrong
up against a right handed pitcher in Woods Richardson. That
it's really like a fastball, and that that's about it,
Like there's really there's not. In my opinion, there's just
not a ton to like for a starter at the
big league level.
Speaker 2: He's the type of guy that I kind of agree
with Brian.
Speaker 1: He's holding down a rotation spot right now because they
lack better options. They haven't really been able to trust
to David Festa in that spot.
Speaker 2: Zebbi Matthews took a step back.
Speaker 1: So really that was the He's really there by default
right now, and I think that if you recognize that
and you're playing against that, it's probably a profitable sort
of angle while he is still in the rotation. I minaga.
I don't think we have to, like, you know, discuss
that much further. Obviously the better starting pitching option. I'm
still such a believer in this Cubs team, Like, I
really think that they belong in the conversation with the
elite top team, like this is a team that can
win a World Series this year. I truly feel that way.
And yeah, that this line is short, I'm gonna I'm
gonna wait. I may circle back to this one. This
might be my parlay league. I have six games on
my list that I'm strongly considering for today. Cubs is
one of them. So I'm not gonna lock it in
just yet. But I am and gee hur also a
comment that I'll pull up that I agree with. He
says Twins are a fade. I'm selling the Twins. I
am too. I I just don't like this team. I don't.
I just don't think there's enough juice in that lineup
one to nine. There's not enough bullpen once you get
past Joe and Duran and Griffin Jacks. So yes, I'm
with you. The Twins are a cell. The Cubs are
a far superior team, and I like the Cubs here.
Speaker 2: All right, let's move it on.
Speaker 1: I got I got so into that, into that Cubs conversation.
I forgot to add a different game. But I will,
I gotta, We'll go to this one because Mark Kinsen says,
I'm here bright and early to see which chat member
is man enough to admit when they're wrong. I'll go first.
I was wrong about the White Sox last night. I
was wrong about really not so much wrong about the
White Sox. I was wrong about the Blue Jays sort
of rolling in and you know, not really giving a
huge effort. It looked like I was on the right track,
Brian Leonard, But then the Blue Jays woke up, the
ball started leaving the yard. I saw Tokyo Brandon cashed
with Sean Burke out under. That should have been a
far easier winner than it was. I don't know what
the White Sox were doing leaving him in there.
Speaker 4: He tried to kill me. They tried to kill me.
But then he gave up a single or no, he
gave up a double, then a home run, then he
gave up the single, and then they finally took him out.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, it was clear that. I mean, he pitched
really well through the first four innings. It was clear
started for him out in the and then it was
still a very winnable game. It was like a three
to one game, and they kind of let him, you know,
they left him out there to create a situation that
turned into an eight one game, and it still ended
up being a I still had a chance, but Miguel
Vargas missed a three run homer in the ninth by
a couple feet that would have a back door that
plus one and a half for me. But anyway, Mark Kinson,
I'll go I was also wrong about the Tigers. I'm
sure Sean I haven't even seen the chat yet. I'm
sure Sean is reminding me that Kiedro Montero is like
now the second coming of Sandy Kopax at home. Was
wrong about that one as well, I'll admit it. But
someone else in the chat wants to talk this Blue
Jays run. Now nine games they're playing incredible ball. In hindsight,
I'm kicking myself a little bit that I stepped in
front of that. Though I still really like my White
Sox handicap for yesterday. I don't like the White Sox
as much today. Brian Leonard, I don't think I'll be
involved in this one, but I want to see what
you guys think. Chris Bassett Aaron Savali were back in
the South Side Blue Jays White Sox.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually yesterday. I was with you. They took
a one nothing lead, obviously early, and then Toronto's bats
just woke up and really took it to him. I
expect a little bit more of the same of that today.
We're looking at Toronto basically a one ninety favorite, eight
and a half on the total late and half over.
I was looking at team totals here earlier before the show,
and if Toronto scores six runs here, you get the victory. No,
it's a it's plus money coming back, so you're you're
getting like plus one twenty coming back. You can take
Toronto to score six runs. They may do that the
way they've been hitting right now. In near Svali, you
know you wanted that trade, but he has not pitched
very well since the trade. I think we may be
at the end of his career, if it wasn't already.
Chris Bassett four point three two ERA three point eighty
five expected one point three to nine whip. His whip
is a little high the last couple of years. Last
year as one point four six great average Eaxson velocity
ninetieth percentile, walk right seventy eighth percentile, hard rate rate
eighty third. So this is a veteran. He's been around
eleven seasons, He's won eighty games in the major leagues.
He knows how to pitch. He's got eight pitches if
you count as change up one percent and slider two percent.
But he uses some other things more often. But he
can throw a lot of junk at you. And this
White Sox team, for the most part, is a very
young team. And I think he will have some success
against this White Sox club because he's done it before
and I think he'll do it again with this team
White Sox. As I mentioned Aaron Savali four point six,
Ohira four point five six expected one point four to
nine whip, and that he's been around seven seasons, and
that's very high for him. Strikeout ray right now is
at nine point four, the first time in his career
it's been better than there has been worse than league average,
which is eight point four. So he's had problems with control.
He's dead last and Major League Baseball and extension, so
the other team's got plenty of time to take a
look at it. He can't get chase chases very much
like Tanner Biby. Going into yesterday, we talked about that.
He's in a ten percent talle and chase rate sixteen
percent talent strekeout rate. So you've got a guy who
doesn't have the ability to strike out the opposition. There's
more time to look at the pitches he throws, and
he does throw seven pitches if you if you count
everything one percent, five percent, a nine percent, so he
does have a pretty good mixed bag there, but he
just does not have the ability to strike people out.
He is keeping on them a little bit off balance
with a seventy seven percent average ex of velocity, but
still when you can't get him to chase after your
pitches and your extreme flyball pitcher, he's in the ninth
percent tile ground ball rate. I think Toronto can have
some success against him. I'd be willing to take that
chance to get plus one twenty back on Toronto to
score six runs here, I think they'll have a good
offensive day. I will not be on the White Sox
in this one.
Speaker 4: So there's a play in this game that I put
out to my clients right before the show. Actually, wow,
we were filming at the beginning of the show. Before
I get to that. It's five dollars Tuesday, guys, So
before Adam wraps up the show without letting us promoting them,
I'm going to do it right now. So five dollars Tuesday.
If you go down there at the banner, you can
see Brian's gonna have something. Adam's going to have some
I already have something. So three best baseball cappers on
the planet get something from us for five dollars. I
know Brian always chuckles when I say that, So so
let's get onto the cap for this one. The play
I gave out is Savales walks right now on draft Kings,
they don't have the walks over under, but they do
have walks allow, so you can get two plus for
Aaron Savallee for I think minus forty right now, go
grab it because I think it's a great play. He
walks in his history against this team, against these batters,
he walks two point three seven per start, and I
project him to walk three point two here. Toronto is
one of the biggest walking teams in MLB. They're walking
four point one times a game, and Savali's walking over
two point three per game, So I would grab that.
I think it's a good play. I project him to
walk over three. Regarding the team breakdowns team breakdowns, Toronto
pretty much is good at everything except their bullpen is
struggling right now. It's hard to I have Bassett on
a cur on a rank on it was ninety five
degrees in eighty three percent humidity today, guys, so my
brain is a little bit fried. It's it's not drugs,
so uh, and it's not alcohol. I've laid off the
alcohol tonight. So I've got Bassett and Savally both ranked
twenty or worse on a curve of thirty. But I
got Toronto's hitting number three, and I got the White
Sox hitting twenty. So the Blue Jays do have an advantage,
but their bullpen is playing really poorly right now, and
the White Sox bullpen's actually playing quite well, so I
would have trouble taking them on a full game. But
Savalle's walks is the way I would go in this one.
Speaker 2: Tbe You're not wrong about that.
Speaker 1: The sun is far more fs me up, far more
than like twelve beers would I could drive, I could
drink ten beers, be totally normal. You put me out
in the sun for a couple hours. I'm all sorts
of messed up.
Speaker 2: So I feel you.
Speaker 1: We've had the listen. I'm a north I've lived my
entire life in the Northeast. Like, I don't handle extreme
heat very well. We had a day like that on
Saturday Sunday. I was melting at the Syracuse Mets game.
I never really want to leave a baseball game. Early
on Sunday I was like I was ready to go
like six, and then I was like, this is insane.
Can't sit out here any longer. Steve Duke, I agree
with you. This streak is well deserved. Toronto has been awesome.
It goes back to sort of what Tokyo Brandon was
talking about. Yeah, they probably will draw their walks because
it's just good at that, after good at that, it's
kind of like reminiscent of when the Cubs were on
a really good run earlier this year. To get to
the point that they're at, it just felt like one
through nine they had a great at that. Yesterday The
one that sticks out to me, Brian Leonard was Boba
Schett was up there having a good at that. I
believe he hit a ball foul down the third base
line that would have been a double.
Speaker 2: It was like a foot file. He ripped it.
Speaker 1: It was not his fault, right, it was just unlucky
that it stayed foul. Next pitch, Burke throws him as
good of a pitch as he possibly could on the
outer half of the plate for a ball, a pitch
that should ever have been hit, and Boba Schett slaps
it the other way for a double down the other
line that started.
Speaker 2: That whole inning.
Speaker 1: Like it's stuff like that that the Blue Jays are
doing right now that is making it very very difficult
to bet against this team, and I have no interest
in betting against them here.
Speaker 2: I liked how the pitching set up yesterday for the
White Sox. I thought they would have.
Speaker 1: Done more against Barrios, and they didn't, and so I'm
not gonna be stubborn. I'm not coming back with it here.
Maybe tomorrow if it sets up better. But I have
no interest in going against the Blue Jays. Blue Jays
are passed for me.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Bran.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Just the other day, when the Blue Jays swept
the Yankees, first home sweep of the Yankees in their history,
I said they would have electin on. They have not
had a let down. They're playing the Chicago White Sox.
If there's any team to have a letdown against this,
it's the White Sox. And they can continue to win.
Hats off to the Blue Jays management, the players. A
lot of teams proved me wrong a lot of times
all season long. And for them to come back out
of that Yankee series and still when tells you this
team has got a nice friend going. And yeah, other
than yesterday where I thought there was a good spot
to go against him, I'm not gonna do it again today.
Speaker 2: I gotta be honest. Oh go ahead, Were you gonna
add something?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 4: No, I'm good, I'm good. I'm good. My brain is fried.
Keep going.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to In the chat, he says Tigers
are more likely to lose today or tomorrow, not yesterday. Uh,
I would say that, I agree with I kind of
I think that, And then Sean's little voice in my
ear saying, Kyder Montero is just lights out at home
kept me off the Rays yesterday. So I very much
appreciate that because he was awesome. Like, hey, let's like
give credit where credit is due. The Tigers have been
great and Kyder Montero has. I can't believe the season
that he's having for that team, Like this is a
guy that I thought would have just gotten lit up
at the big league level if they've tried to keep
him as a starter.
Speaker 2: He's been awesome. It's Tiger's Rays.
Speaker 1: Before we get into this breakdown, one more fun fact
about the Myrtle Beach Pelicans for you, Brian Leonard. They
are the original Durham Bulls. One of the best movies
in the history of cinema, not just Sports bull Durham
phenomenal movie. That team that they highlighted in that movie
was the single A team they were in Single A
back then. Kevin Costner's character was down there to mentor
a single A kid with potential. That Durham Bulls moved
to Myrtle Beach became the Myrtle Beach Pelicans and they
created a new Durham Bulls as a Triple A team
when the Rays, the team we're going to talk about here,
came into the league back in the late nineties. So
one more fun Myrtle Beach Pelicans fact for you guys.
But now the Myrtle Beach Pelicans or I'm sorry, the
Durham Bulls Triple A for the Rays. A lot of
those guys have now come up and are making an impact.
Speaker 2: At the big league level. These two teams, Brian are are.
Speaker 1: They're following the same formula and it's it's not surprising
that they're having the success they're having. They both have
tremendous farm systems, they identify talent. I didn't mean to
slander Kevin Cash yesterday. I was just pissed off that
he doesn't like read the room a little bit more.
He's still a tremendous coach. The organization is run as
well as you could possibly run an organization, especially with
the payroll they have Tiger's raise.
Speaker 2: Is this a game that we're going to see in
the playoffs at some point? It could be? And what
do you think here?
Speaker 1: It's Pepio Flaherty a tough matchup in my opinion, but
I know the chat wants to talk about it.
Speaker 2: So Tiger's raised. Let's go.
Speaker 3: Yeah, being from Cleveland with a team who doesn't put owners,
that don't put a lot of money into the team,
and most of their scouting is what they what they do.
They bring up pretty good drafts and that they're able
to do it that way. These are the type of teams.
I love Tampa Bay for years, Detroit the way they're
playing right now. If you look at Detroit, I know
they've got some all stars on the team, a lot
of fan votes, but there's really other than Scooball, a
lot of guys that are not you know, just popping
off your head. Greens great and some other guys are
having really nice seasons. But they were able to win
with their full a lot. But the players just like
Tampa Bay has been and they send guys up and
down for the miners. You know, it's like Montero and
he's getting the job done. So hats off to both
these teams. Anytime you can get more out of your
team than all other clubs like the Yankees and the
Red Sox and some others that pay all this money
for the veterans. That's a ton of teams I want
to back, and I'm a fan of those teams. Pepio
and Flaherty and this one flarity about a one thirty
favorite total of eight. Pepio has been very good for
Tampa Bay this year. Three point three four ERA, three
point nine and three expected one point one five whip,
very good extension, that's probably what he's best at seventy
fourth percentile. He does have some blue His average eggs
of velocity twenty seven percent tell not terrible, but not
what you'd want. Part hit rate thirty five percent, bear
all right thirty seven so he can be hit a
little bit, but he usually gives you a pretty good
effort when he is on the mile. Jack Filerty He's
lost nine games this year already. Last year in one
hundred and sixty two winnings, he only lost seven games.
He comes in five and nine, four point eight four ERA,
four point one zero expected one point two four whip.
Take a look at his splits because he's had some.
Really his home very similar to this year as before.
His Homie RA three point eight three road e ra
six point oh eight home whip one point one one
road one point four or zero. So he is a guy.
If you're going to play him, you play him at home.
His strikeout percentage eighty eighth percentile, with rate seventy six percentile.
Great problem is when he gets hit, he gets hit hard,
bear all right, fourteenth percentile, hard hit seventeenth, ball right
only the fifteenth. So he's a fly ball pitcher. But
this is a good pitcher's park in Detroit. Pepio and
Flarity here one twenty three, one thirty. As I mentioned before,
one thirty eight, I think Allian's pretty good. I slightly
in with Detroit here because Flarity is pitching at home.
But I like both those teams. I really don't want
to go again do the one of them, so I'll
probably be passing on this one.
Speaker 4: Can you bet more than a thousand games in a year,
You you tend to stay away from certain things, and
you just can't win when you bet certain things. And
Flarity is my certain thing. I can't I back in
my lose, I fade in my lose. Flarity is a
thorn in my side. When he was at the Dodgers,
when he's the Tigers before. Yeah, he he bothers me.
So I'm not betting this game, but I will tell
you that his home numbers are great, his numbers against
the Rays in his career horrible. His OPS is over
nine hundred. So what do you do when you have
two conflicting sets of data like that? Pepio's numbers against
Detroit against these particular batters are great in his career,
he's better at home than on the road. But he's
ranked much higher according to my numbers than Flarity. Both
bullpens pretty mediocre, both lineups top ten. So too much
conflicting data and we've got that that Flarity guy who
just always gets me. So I'm staying away from this one.
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna stay away too. I just want to
comment quickly talk about why I'm not gonna bet it.
But you know, I think it's a Sean makes a
good point. He said, you know there is some merit
to watching the games, Like I understand. It's to me
too that some people bet on things that they're not
watching intently. And the thing is for me, Sean, I
think I almost I've almost seen too much of Montero.
I watched him a ton at Toledo, and it what
they've done with him is something that a lot of
pitchers can't handle. They've made him like the Swiss Army
Knife option of their organization, and this takes a toll
on pitchers. I heard Tommy Henry give an interview about
this in game during a Diamondbacks game, where he's like,
it is it is the toughest scenario of my entire career.
Basically being asked to go start a game in Reno,
then meet the team on the road, then come out
of the bullpen, then not pitch for seven days, then
start for the big league club, then go back to Reno.
That's basically what they've done with Kaider Montero. They've had
him in Triple A. He comes up, he's the bulk guy.
He's back to Triple A. Now he's starting a game.
You know, he doesn't really know when he's gonna pitch.
He thought he was going to pitch over the weekend
in Toledo. Now he's pitching for the Tigers. It's very difficult,
and he's done a tremendous job and doing it. Yesterday
he comes out, gives the team six innings and the
Tigers didn't really have to use much of their bullpen.
So I'm out on the Rays right there. Because the Tigers,
when they've got a fresh bullpen, AJ Hinch manages it
as good as.
Speaker 2: Any any manager in the league.
Speaker 1: And when he's got you know what did he I
think he used vest at like maybe nineteen pitches yesterday
at Holton through seven, one of the lesser guys through
an inning. So when you've got the Tigers with their
full complement of relievers that way, they don't need to
push Flaerty super deep, they will. You know, I think
that he has a bigger leash than some other guys
on the team.
Speaker 2: It's a very even game.
Speaker 1: But at this point, I'm just not betting against the
Tigers unless I feel like I've got like a deficiency somewhere,
and I'm not seeing that here. So I actually think
I leaned the Tigers. Chat will be happy slightlyan toward
the Tigers for me in this we.
Speaker 4: Be against them winning the World Series because they have
zero shot.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, though, toky Tokyo Brandon that al
that American League is looking awfully thin, Like I wouldn't
be that surprised if they're there.
Speaker 2: I really, I really wouldn't.
Speaker 1: Like there's not look at who I mean, there's really
not many teams in the ALE that you can like
unequivocally say would be there right now.
Speaker 2: Over the Tigers, I would not.
Speaker 4: Say series they were.
Speaker 2: They were right, they were right there last year. They
were right there last year in baseball.
Speaker 3: One of the best managers in baseball. Just because you
don't have big hands, I mean, you can't play ball.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they have the postseason experience from last year, don't.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm kind of getting kind of warming up to
them being the the ALE representative in the World Series
because I'm not a believer in the Astros. Yeah, the
Yankees should be the best. I do like this Blue
Jays team though, so we'll see. That's that's the beauty
of this. We still were We're Brian, what are we?
Almost one hundred games into the season and we've still
got like sixty five seventy left. Baseball is not for everyone.
I love the one hundred and sixty two game grind.
Ethan Baybridge loves it too. He's here every day grinding
and out with us, and he says the Reds are
in a good bounce back spot today. Maybe this is
an interesting one. These are two guys that we've talked
quite a bit about. We've got Uri Perez and I
believe it's is it Nick Martinez for the Red today?
Brian Leonard, What do you see Marlins Retty?
Speaker 3: Nick Martinez? Basically about a one eighteen favorite here total
of nine. Eury Perez last time out, very impressive, six
shutout innings against the Minnesota Twins, a team who's not
hitting very well right now. But other than his openinger,
it came out and pitched three innings against the Pirates.
Since first game coming back from injury, gave up four
runs there. He's been pretty consistent three or less rounds.
He's still Last time out was the first time he's
gone more than five innings or more, and that was
the six innings against the Twins. Had a really nice
whip in that game one point one eight seven to one,
struck out minus walk seven struck us to one walk.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: He's been doing very well and he was very impressive
in that game. Comes in four point five oh e
ra ra has expected ERA three point oh two. So
his he's a guy I want to buy on right now.
I believe one point one eight whip basketball ve lost
the ninety five fifth percentile. We saw that last year
when he was pitching, or excuse me, in twenty twenty
three when he was pitching, if you don't remember that year,
he hit a three point one five ERA one point
one three whip, struck out one hundred and eight batters
and only ninety one and a third innings. This is
a guy that's got a nice future ahead of him,
and I like his situation a little bit. Today He's
going up against uh pretty good pitcher in himself and
Nick Martinez, who I really like coming into the season,
hadn't quite lived up to what we thought. You know,
the last two years as the era's were three point
one zero, three point four to three. This year's four
point two. Oh and his expecteds four point one five,
one point one seven. With not a major walk guy,
He's in the ninety first percentile on walks, hard hit
rate eightieth percentile. Those are two pretty good numbers. Not
a big strikeout pittuer, though only in the seventeenth percentile
seventy one strikeouts in one hundred innings. He's never been
one of those guys gonna overpower you chase rate only
in the twelfth percentile, which is a concern. We've got
two pictures I like here, and we're looking at the
total of nine in Cincinnati. This is a good hitters ballpark.
Let me get a quick look here at the weather
report in Cincinnati today. Really no way whatsoever, no precipitation,
looking about eighty eighty three or four degrees when the
game goes off. That's that's pretty hot for Cincinnati. Nothing
here in this one. I'd like to bet on both
these guys, but in this ballpark. I don't want to
go under a nine. Henry Ballpark.
Speaker 4: Guys, it is five dollars Tuesday. You can get our
feature plays any kapper for five dollars on wager talk
dot com. So go there. I already have mine out.
I'm sure Brian and Adam will if they don't already.
Let's go to this game. I have Miami, I mean,
surprisingly as it is. I have Miami a little bit
better than Cincinnati at everything, but only just a little bit.
I got Perez and Martina's pretty neck and neck as
far as rankings are concerned. But if you look at
how they've performed against the other batters, Martine's in a
forty one at bat sample size, has held these batters
down pretty well, whereas Perez has not. So that worries
me a little bit. But you know, how they've performed
against the other team is only just a small grain
of salt. It's not everything. It's not the tell all
because that could have been two years ago, could have
been three years ago. They could have been put in
in relief situation, you know. So that's not everything. It
does mean a little bit, but it's not everything. So
taking a look at the bullpens, I got Miami's bullpen
performing at a very high level right now. Cincinnati's is
also performing quite well. Both lineups are a little bit
sub mediocre at the moment. If anything, I would go
with an under here. I think an under would be
a good play. Is that the opposite of what you said, Brian?
Speaker 3: I said, I'm looking for the under, but the nine
is kind of low for being a.
Speaker 4: Cincinnati I see, I see. I think an under would
be good here. If either one of these teams is
four and a half on a team total, I think
an under would be a decent play as well, especially
Cincinnati because Miami's bullpen is just on fire right now.
They're performing really well, and they have been for the
last two weeks, So that would be the way I go.
I haven't gone that way yet, but that's the way
I would go if I did. And by the way,
guys tickling me in the chat, take a look at
my bio. If you think I don't know anything about baseball.
Speaker 2: I don't think anyone.
Speaker 1: No one should be accusing you of not knowing anything
about baseball. You come on and do it an hour show,
like six days a week, five days.
Speaker 4: I worked in MLB for a decade. I don't know
anything about baseball.
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, I'll tell you what. I'm not betting it
over and I'm not betting against hearing Perez.
Speaker 1: This is a kind of what I foreshadowed here last
week when we talked about this, I said, the upside
of Perez is what you ended up seeing last week. Now,
I didn't know when it would come. He has had
a long, long rehab. He had multiple injuries. You know
that he was coming back from. He's been essentially in
rehab mode since spring training, right like he was in
the minors for months rehabbing like multiple injuries. So you
know it was always going to take him some time.
But man, that was what you saw last time out
from him, the six inning, shutout ball, seven strikeouts. That
is the upside for him, and that's why I can't
bet the Reds here because I would fear that happening again.
Speaker 2: If he shows up and he's on like he was
in his last.
Speaker 1: Start, I don't think the Reds are gonna get much
off of him because because his upside is that now
I like Nick Martinez, I like this Reds team, which
is making it a little bit tougher to go against
them here. And then of course you know they are
and I guess what you would call a bounce back spot.
But Tokyo Brandon, I agree with you. The Marlins suddenly
have a number of good bullpen arms that don't really
get the credit. Like it's reminiscent of what the Rangers
have done with their bullpen a little bit, where it's
like they really need they lack, like a really good
high leverage eighth ninth inning option. But the Marlins bullpen
collectively has a lot of good arms down there, and
I don't think they really get the full credit for it.
So I lean Marlins plus money. I think is good.
Plus one ten seems fair. I don't know if this
will make my client card. I haven't decided what I'm
putting in the parlor yet, though I will and like
the next five minutes or so. But I lean pretty
strong toward the Marlins here, and it's really for me.
It's upside on Perez and they're just their ability to hit.
They've hit, they keep hitting, and I don't think Nick
Martinez is a guy they can't hit. So Marlin's plus
money would be would be the you know, the value
play here and one that I had on my short
list for today. We got about fifteen minutes a show left.
Speaker 2: Well, we'll lock in. Listen, I I it's fine.
Speaker 1: People are gonna people want to wait till the end
of the show, are going to scroll to the end
anyway to get the parlay. So I kind of have
an idea of what my leg will be. If either
of you know what you want to use and want
to throw a game out there, be my guest. Otherwise
we're going to do one from the chat. Do either
of you know what you want to put in the
parlay yet?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think I do.
Speaker 2: All right, we'll go to your game what are we
talking about.
Speaker 3: I'm going to take a look here at the Pittsburgh
the Pittsburgh Kansas City game. Now, yesterday they were allowed
to unscored in this game. But for the most part,
neither one of these offenses has done well. Mitch Keller, Well,
let's just talk about the line so far. It's Mitch
Keller against Seth Lugo. Lugo's maybe about one thirty five
favorite total of eight Lugo. I've said it before. This
stadium and the lack of home runs that are hit
in Kansas City is exactly what we want for the
Kansas City starters. Management here has done a great job
bringing in guys who maybe fly ball pitchers that on
the road struggle a little bit, but at home, this
is a perfect ballpark. Mitch Keller, as much as we've
talked about him over the years as being an innings leat,
he's having a really nice season. He pitched you well
again last time out going at this Kansas City team,
which I don't have rated very well offensively one of
the worst offenses. These are actually two of the worst
offenses in Major League Baseball. I think these two pitchers
are going to have an edge in this game. I'm
gonna play this game under eight and we can get
that minus one ten minus one oh five. But let's
let's go minus one ten on Pittsburgh Kansas City under
It'll be my part of the parlay.
Speaker 4: Okay, I guess I'll cover this game, and then I'll
give my parlay leg since it's we've already.
Speaker 1: Finished finished this game, and then we'll do your parlay
lake finished it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, sure, So I got the two starters, pretty
negligible difference here, maybe two point difference. I got Logo
a little bit higher, but I've got Pittsburgh ranked higher
in bullpen and I've got Pittsburgh ranked higher in batting,
but just barely. If anything, these teams are pretty locked equal.
I would take the underdog plus one and a half
if I bet it, but in this case, I do
not think I will get there. Uh my parlay leg.
I'm gonna go to the game.
Speaker 1: We just finished this, hold on, hold on finish. I
want to talk about pirate Royals. Then we'll we'll we'll
let you propose the parlay leg game. Sure, I'm I
really actually just wanted to agree, uh with a couple
of people. One Brian for like in the Under two,
he's uh broke energy. In the chat says Lugo is
a beast. It's a very accurate comment that this dude
has been doing it for years now, and he's someone
that I think doesn't get even a shred of the
credit that he deserves for how consistently good he's been.
Brian Leonard, how long has it been now four years?
Five years where he's just been subbed for the whip
near like one as a starter. I mean god, if
so if a bigger name was doing that, we'd be
throwing a parade, we'd have a we'd have another legend
spot on the All Star team. And Seth Lugo just
does it in sort of like almost anonymity, like he
just he doesn't get any recognition.
Speaker 2: And Sean says he's in a contract year with the.
Speaker 1: Royals, Like yeah, like he he has been so good,
so consistent that you you throw an under and Lugo
out there, and then especially with two teams that really
struggle to hit the ball and a team like the
Royals that struggles to hit left handed pitching, I'm with you, Brian.
Speaker 2: I think you found a very good parlay Leake here.
Speaker 1: It's probably if I had a strong opinion on a
total in this on this slate, it would probably be
this one.
Speaker 2: So I'm just here to sign off on that parlay
La go ahead.
Speaker 3: Yeah at home this year two point four two e
r A one point one to nine whip. He's pitched
ten seasons in Major League Baseball with an e r
a A three point three zero, and yet he's never
talked about because he's not a strikeout pitcher. Uh, this
is These are the kind of guys who make money
on this, do you. Most people think he's just a journeyman.
He's an excellent pitcher and he's pitching a good pitcher's park.
He's not gonna blow anybody away with the stuff, no
doubt about it. But he's he's got like nine different pitches.
I mean, he's just a while. He veteran three point
three oh ERA in ten years, and nobody thinks of
him as un e lead arm. Yeah. I think we
got a lot of good advantage in this one.
Speaker 4: He goes quite deep in his games too. I mean,
if you see a seventeen and a half over under,
chances are he's gonna be the over. He's gonna finish
six innings in most in most situations.
Speaker 1: You know what's funny, ge Hurts got a running bit
in the chat where like he you know, he talks
about schemes looking for houses in Detroit, and I think
I forget who he was talking about the other day,
he just.
Speaker 2: Brought up Lugo.
Speaker 1: Lugo is a guy could totally see the Tigers going
and getting them.
Speaker 2: He's like a J.
Speaker 1: Hinch would probably give up a child to get seth
Lugo on his staff. Like he is just like the
type of guy that that that Hinch would love. Because
of what you were saying. He goes, he works deep,
He's got all sorts of pitches. He he he lives
under the radar. I could totally see that.
Speaker 2: Like that would.
Speaker 4: Another guy that Mets got rid of.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's a little bit different in a scenario,
but yeah, you're right about that. He is another another
guy that comes from listen though, when you've got to
pay it, when you've got the money the Mets do
and stuff. If you can't keep everyone, and you're not
gonna be able to keep the fringe guys a lot
of times because you're always forced by the fans to
go out and get the next best thing or get
someone better. Duffel Cole says secondary college alum logo. Yeah,
love to see. I we house so we're a host
family for summer league college baseball kids.
Speaker 2: My fiance's parents have been doing it for years.
Speaker 1: We have a team here in local and it's a
there's a couple D one and D two players, but
there are a lot of D three guys that that play.
So yeah, it's always cool to see. I'll tell them,
I'm like, listen like it happens. Tim Lacashtro from Ithaca,
New York, he's he was a big leaguer. Like every
once in a while you get a D three guy
that breaks through and gets the big league. So yes,
awesome to see Seth Lugo, a D three college baseball
player get there. Mason Miller is one that comes to mind.
He was in a Division III guy and he's in
the bigs now. So anyway, let's continue on t TV.
Speaker 2: Give us a game. What are we talking about here
and tell us what your parlay leg is.
Speaker 4: Well, first, my parlay leg is a game we already covered.
I'm gonna go with the Cubs on the money line.
I saw it at minus one thirty six. I don't
know what Brian's seeing it at now, but before the
show it was one thirty six.
Speaker 2: I think it's low. I think the twins just took money,
which is mind blowing to me. Yeah, I'm pretty sure
they just did.
Speaker 3: Wow, you can get as good as one twenty five,
but I would say he probably on twenty seven total
of nine.
Speaker 4: Okay, so I'll take that. If you're gonna let me
propose a game to do right now, there is one
I'd like to get your guys thoughts on.
Speaker 2: If all right, fire away? What do we got? Okay?
Speaker 4: Guardians Astro is an interesting game to me because I
don't know much about this cante O guy, but I
do know Hunter Brown. He's ranked number six in my rankings.
And we mentioned on the show yesterday. Brian and I
both said, are I think all three of us agreed?
Speaker 3: Man.
Speaker 4: The Astros were fat and sassy, as as Wager Talks
co founder Marco would say. And yeah, they laid an
egg as kind of expected. They came off just destroying
the Dodgers and then and then came back home and
laid an egg. So the gardens Guardians obviously are an
inferior team, and today Hunter Brown is one of He's
a top ten MLB pitcher by anybody's standard. I have
him ranked number six. So again, the Astros should go
in and absolutely crush this team. But my numbers say
this Canto guy is pretty good, but I don't know
anything about him. So I haven't played this yet, but
I would love to take the Astros, but I haven't
done it yet.
Speaker 3: What do you think, Brian Astros with Brown about a
one ninety five favorite right now a line of seven. Yes,
you came out and you were emphatic that you thought
this was a letdown spot for Houston. I thought it
was a let down spot for their bats. I was.
I didn't agree it was a let down spot for
the starter, and the starter just tired in the fifth inning.
Four rangs of shutout baseball. Then he got hit in
the fifth Join Dentillo, if you remember he's he's the
one that they brought back up when Arties got caught
with the gambling situation, so it was a last minute thing.
Kentillo came up from the miners and he was with
the team last year. Last year didn't do as well
four point eight nine ERA one point two nine whip
this year three point four to one e r A
one point three to nine whip. He's a lefty and
he's a big strikeout guy. He's in the ninety eight
percent is an extension ball gets right on you. Strikeout
percentage of the ninetieth percentile with rate and seventy fourth percentile,
So you need to be prepared for him because he's
got the ability to throw that ball right past you.
It's not dominant, it's only ninety one point seven percent
were league average for a left handed starter is ninety
three point two. But because of his extension, it gets
on you really fast, and he can pile up some strikeouts.
In fact, in seventy point one innings in the majors,
he's got eighty five strikeouts. So he's a guy that
can't keep you in the game if you're one of
those strikeout guys that he likes. That problem is he
can't get any chases. He's in the first percentile and
chase right eighth percent isle and walk rate seventeenth and
hard hit percentage right now, his walk right now, granted
it's only twenty two excuse me, thirty one innings, but
he's got a twelve point three walk rate, so a
lot of strikeouts, a lot of walks with him on
the and Hunter Brown here for the Astros obviously fantastic
one point eight two e RA two point eight one
expected zero point nine one nine zero whip. Everything is
in the red. He's a great pitcher. Let's see how
he does at home compared to on the road. At
home one point one e RA zero point seven to
six whip and he's playing a team that had gotten
shut out I believe two at the last three games
and four first four innings yesterday. I expect him to
have a really good day in this game against Cleveland
last time out, so he played the Rockies and at
home six innings, two earned runs. In fact, he's gone
now one two, three, four, five six seven straight starts
allowing two or less earned runs in a game. I
think the Cleveland offense is going to struggle once again today.
If you're looking to play the side, I much prefer
Brown over at Canteo. I do like Contio, but I
don't think this is a very good matchup for him,
And yeah, unfortunately, as a Guardians fan, I think our
winning streak is over.
Speaker 1: Listen, So I'll talk about Cantillo for a minute. I've
watched a bunch of him over the last month or
so they've so he is someone like he's He was
down at Triple A for a month, like long before
the Ortiz thing happened. The Guardian sent him back to
Triple A because they wanted to stretch him out to
be a starter. So that was that was like something
that was in the works, like I think he Yeah,
early June he went back down and I was watching
a Columbus Clippers broadcast and they basically said, yeah, the
goal is to have him build up.
Speaker 2: We want him to be starting games now.
Speaker 1: He hasn't gone particularly deep, but that's all probably been
part of the plan as he builds his arm up
to get starters innings. In June at Triple A one
a one to sixty seven batting average against a zero
point nine to four whip.
Speaker 2: He was very, very very good.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, Brian, I don't I can't see him
going particularly deep here in his first start at the
big league level since being called up three and a
third against the Cubs, but he was really good. They
didn't do anything against him a couple hits, a couple walks,
but five strikeouts and he he was, you know, no
runs through three and a third. I kind of like
the Guardians here in the in the respect, I think
Canteo keeps him in this game for the first four
or five innings and then it's like, yeah, you have
to figure out what happens with the bullpens. But like
if you were if you're talking about taking a flyer
on a team with plus money or maybe even a
plus one and a half, I wouldn't be surprised if
if Cantio one one or two times through is very
very tough on this Astros lineup. So I don't think
it's just a no brainer bet on the Astros. Cantio's
pretty good, and I could see him holding down holding
down this Astros lineup at least once through the order.
All right, I am gonna throw game out here and
then we're going to talk about this one, and it
will be my parlay leg. I'll Alexy, I'll just give
out the leg and then I will let you guys
sort of, you know, talk about the game, if you
want to talk about the game.
Speaker 2: I do think it's probably over for the Braves.
Speaker 1: But I think if there was ever a chance where
they were gonna sort of put their foot in the
ground and make a move right here, Brian Leonard, it
would be this series out against an A's team that's
been worse at home, that has no home field advantage.
You know, Diddy or Fuentis is a guy that I
criticized this Braves team for calling him up when they did,
but they've kind of left him up here now, and
you've got to think, like, if they didn't believe in him,
there's no way he would still be at the big
league level. They're gonna give him another shot against the A's.
He's got very good stuff, so you have to think
that maybe they think he's starting to unlock something and
he could be good at the big league level. I
don't buy that right now, but I do think this
could be an okay matchup for him and A's lineup
that you know is a lot of guys that could
still be aviators right now, right like it's it's not
you know, there's some really superstars in that lineup or
guys that can be like a Jacob Wilson. You know,
there's some really guys with tons of upside. But if
the A's were a more sort of confident organization, a
lot of those guys might still be at Triple A.
So I think it's a reasonable matchup for Fuentes, and
it's also I think a reasonable matchup for the Braves.
Springs is not a guy that I've been super high on.
I think he's you know, it's doable for them to
sort of generate some offense, and it just feels like
a spot here where you know, the Braves might might
make one last push in this series, and hey, who knows.
If they can have a good series here and get
some momentum going into the break, it could change things.
My gut says they're still sellers at the trade deadline,
but they come into play eight and a half games
out of the wild Card.
Speaker 2: This is a very winnable series for them, in my opinion.
Speaker 1: I think the the value has has I think that
the market has moved so far one way on the
Braves now that there's actually some value in backing them.
So that'll be my parlay leg I like the Braves tonight.
What's the line there? Minus one five, minus one ten?
Speaker 3: Uh, Actually it's about probably minus one fifteen right now.
Speaker 1: Fine, Yeah, that's that's not surprising to me that the
Braves would take a little bit of money. I feel
like you're gonna have some sharp based the sharp sort
of syndicates that that move lines and stuff. I feel
like are going to like start buying the Braves on
a regular basis, just from a value standpoint, if they're
going to open up like even money against the A's.
Speaker 2: So Braves is my parlay leg.
Speaker 1: Do you do either of you guys have anything to
add to A to A's Braves.
Speaker 3: Welling Springs was pitching well last time out against Stampa
Bay five and a third, uh two. Urning around, He's
been pretty good last four starts. He's given up two
or less earned runs, but he played the Royals, played
the Guardians, played the Tigers, and the Blue Jays. Last
two a little bit tougher, but yeah, he's last two years.
Keep in mind in twenty twenty three, this is the
guy who's been injured a lot. In twenty twenty three.
He only had sixteen innings last year, thirty three innings.
It's already up at the ninety seven innings right now.
I think he's going to hit a wall. He may
hit it any time now. It would not surprise me
if the A's start cutting back on his innings. He's
in a fastball velocity seventh percentile, ground ball right eighth
percentile being a flyball pitcher in Oakland or excuse me.
A Sacramento has not really turned out to be a
problem yet, but I think it will be as the
season goes on and he gets a little bit more tired. Yeah,
I would agree with Atlanta. I don't like Atlanta going forward,
but I think there's a little bit of value on
them tonight.
Speaker 4: Guys, please leave comments on the re play and like
the replay for us and check our pages for five
dollars Tuesday. That's all I have to say about this game.
Speaker 1: Love Steve Duke making my job easier. He typed out
the parlay for us, so it's right there on your
screen if you want to read it quickly. But I will, Yeah,
I'll echo Tokyo Brandon sentiment.
Speaker 2: It is five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 1: And I didn't promo anything at the end of yesterday's show,
but it was a Monday.
Speaker 2: We don't need to force that down your throat on
a Monday.
Speaker 1: But on Tuesday, I'll lose my job if I don't
tell you that it's five dollars Tuesday site wide at
wager Talk that everyone's got plays up, So check that out.
The parlay is as follows, and I will full disclosure.
I was going to use the Cubs, but Tokyo brand
and beat me to it, which I'm glad because I
know I'm glad you did because I didn't know which
one I wanted to use. I was between a couple,
and you made my decision much easier. So we've got Tokyo,
Brandon Cubs money line, I'm on the Braves money line,
and Brian Leonard Pirates.
Speaker 2: Royals under eight.
Speaker 1: This is a plus five forty two parlay, and I'm
feeling good about this one. I really feel like we've
got one here. Within the next day or two, we're
gonna hit one of these. Get our unit count back up.
Still up nine dollars and ninety cents for every dollar
that you've put on the parlays if you're playing along.
But we've been on a little bit of a losing
street with the parlays. We got to change that here.
So without further ado, one more time, Cubs money line,
Raise money Line, pirates Royals under eight that's a winner.
That's plus five forty two odds on the parlay. It's
five dollars. Tuesday at wager Talk, everyone's got plays up
for five bucks. So check us out on the site
and appreciate you guys in the chat. We've regularly regularly
been getting over eleven hundred viewers on Twitter and other
live viewers on YouTube, so we very very much appreciate
you guys.
Speaker 2: Give us a give us a subscribe, drop a comment.
Speaker 1: We try to answer all of them, and we'll see
you guys tomorrow morning, Wednesday, nine am for another episode.
Speaker 2: Good luck today, We'll see you guys tomorrow