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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Tuesday morning. Time for Total Bases.

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We have hit the home stretch of the first half.

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Four shows left for us today, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and

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then we are at the MLB All Star Break. I

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actually can't believe how quickly the first half has gone by.

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But there's still money to be made this week and

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I look to do it as we do every day

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with Brian Leonard and Tokyo Brandon.

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Speaker 2: We've got a great slate. We have a full slate

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of MLB.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk as many games as we can,

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and I think the feature today is going to be

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Dodgers Brewers. We've got a legend who has been put

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on the All Star team, which you know what, I'm

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fine with that. I decided I'm fine with that. It's

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good for the game of baseball to have Clayton Kershaw celebrated.

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He's had such an incredible career, so I'm fine with that.

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He's not an All Star this year, but it's neither

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here nor there. He's up against a kid that's probably

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going to be an All Star many times for years

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to come. And Jake up Miserowski, my hat the MB

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is not Milwaukee Brewers.

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Speaker 2: I'll give Brian.

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Speaker 1: Leonard a chance to guess that at some point in

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time throughout the show. But the Brewers and the Dodgers

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are our feature game today. Brewers go up big and

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never looked back last night, Brian Leonard, how are you

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handicapping this one, the young kid versus the old veteran

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Brewers Dodgers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if Miserowski remains healthy. Yes. The problem is anybody

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who has thrown one hundred and three miles an hour

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gets hurt, and we saw that happen to the break

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of the Red's best pitcher this year. He's avoided it

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for the last few years and he's the one guy

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who didn't have have the problem, but he's missed some

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time this year, so it's going to happen. Unfortunately. We

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like the speed, but it's sort of like out racing

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the faster they go with the chance I get to

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be in an accident, and that's what you're going to

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get out of Milwaukee and Miserawski. But this is a

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very interesting game. As you mentioned, Kershaw coming off that

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big three thousand strikeout game could have been a possible

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let now, but since the Dodgers are playing lousy in

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the last week. I don't think they'll have a letdown

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in this game against Milwaukee. And Brandon and I have

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gone back and forth on the Brewers, and I know

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he loves the Dodgers. All I got to say is

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if this season ended right now, the Brewers would only

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be four and a half games behind the Dodgers, who

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everybody thinks is the best team in baseball. If you

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look at run differential, the Dodgers only have a four

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run better run differential than the Brewers. So as much

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as he thinks the Brewers are not very good, I

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totally disagree. I like the future on this team. And

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we'll get to today's game here with the Brewers and

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the Dodgers. By the way, a lot of stadium in

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the let's just say from Saint Louis to New York

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area or go get a lot of rain today, So

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keep that in mind when you're placing your bets. I

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think Yankee Stadium has probably got the best chance of

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getting rained out. But there is a lot of problems

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with whether today getting to the actual game of the

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Dodgers and the Brewers. As I mentioned Kershaw, he's amazingly

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pitched pretty well this year to a three point four

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to three ERA expected, the ERA four point one eight

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we have one point twenty five. But other than a

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barrel rate in the eighty third percentile, ground ball rate

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in the sixty eighth percentile, he's got some uggly numbers

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up there. Fastball velocity second percentile, we've known that he

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hasn't had that for a few years now. He's lost

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a lot of his velocity of the fastball average EXSA

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velocity third percentile. He's getting hit hard hardy rate fourth percentile.

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So even though his number has been pretty good and

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he comes into four and zero on the season, he's

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not a guy that has a lot of strikeouts and

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he gets hit hard, and that is a concern when

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you're playing a team like the Dodgers, who are going

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to be favorites just about every time they hit the

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road and or at home. Misowski his numbers are still

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trying to work their way out. He's only thrown nineteen

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point or two thirds innings three point two OERA two

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point four to six expected, zero point nine to two whip.

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That is the good part. The problem is his walk

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rate twelve point two. That wasn't a problem in his

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first three starts, but last time out he did lose

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it a little bit from the walk rate. And the

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Dodgers are a team that will take some pitchers. They

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are a veteran team. So he's got a twenty eight

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point four strikeout percentage, twelve point two walk rate, which

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is sixteen point two. That's slightly better than the league average.

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And he's only thrown four games. Extension ninety eight percentile,

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fastball velostity ninety eighth percentile. That means you can blow

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anybody away if he is on, I just don't have

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enough time to react to him, and that's what he

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has done thus far. But I do have some concerns

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about that walk right. He was there in the minors

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and it's starting to show a little bit in the major.

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Should be a fun game, really good game. The line

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tells you that the teams are pretty close to even.

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Here we're looking at the Dodgers. Maybe a one twenty

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favorite with a total of eight and a half should

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be a fun game to watch. Unfortunately, I won't get involved.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, we have been going back and forth about

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the Brewers and Dodgers, and yes, the Brewers do have

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a decent record. But objectively speaking, what do you think

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the Brewers' chances of making the World Series are? And

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what do you think the chances of the Dodgers making

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the World Series are? So just put that in your

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mind and think about it. I mean, yesterday, yeah, the

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Brewers won. Frankly, I've been watching the Dodgers games and

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they look like a team that's pretty much mailed the

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first half in. They don't seem to even be trying

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at this point. I think basically they're just holding their

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breath until the White Sox series starts, and then they'll

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maybe try and win two of those games. I don't

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think they really care about winning these games, to be honest.

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I mean, watching them, they look like a team that

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does not care one bit. And if you saw the

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pitchers that they were thrown out there last night, Fernandez

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and like just I mean guys who shouldn't even be

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in the major leagues. And looking at the numbers, current

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form and everything, Brewers have an edge on the Dodgers

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in every category. I know that seems strange for me

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to say, since I've been trashing them so bad, but

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you know, winning a couple of games here and there

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doesn't mean they're a World Series team. It would have

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to be Brewers or nothing here, because honestly, the Dodgers

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don't seem to really care. I probably won't play this game, though,

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but I can't see the Dodgers winning it. I could

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be wrong.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think you're right about the Dodgers just in general,

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Like it's made the Dodgers a very tough handicap because

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I'm with you like the Dodgers, I don't think we're

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even seeing close to the full sort of like what

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the Dodgers could be come September, or what they should

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be at their full capacity. It does feel like they're

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going through the motions at times. Tokyo Brandons, I agree.

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Speaker 2: With you there.

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Speaker 1: Yet, they're twenty games over five hundred, So how good

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is this team? If that's they're twenty games over five hundred,

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fifty six and thirty six entering play tonight. How good

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is this team when they're fully engaged, when they've got

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their their full compliment of pitchers.

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Speaker 2: That's what makes it so tough.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what makes it so difficult to bet against

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this team on a day to day basis. That being said,

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like right now, the Brewers are playing better ball. The

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Brewers are eight. See here's the thing. The Brewers are

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a very good baseball team. Do they end up in

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the World Series? Probably not. Could they be in the

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mix come September? I definitely think so. The only thing

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that makes it tough for the Brewers is there in

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the end. If the Brewers were in the American League,

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I might put them in the World Series. Like they're

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just they're they're They've got the tough luck of the

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draw this year. With the fact that they're going to

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be on the same side competing with the Cubs, the Mets,

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the Dodgers, you know, they're in a much tougher scenario

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than let's say, a team like the Tigers, who could

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very well be the best team in the American League

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right now. Those two teams not that different Brewers and Tigers.

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In my opinion, I think that's just an interesting talking point.

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Mizerowski's a stud. He's going to be great game the game.

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Who knows, because he's a young kid. As Brian said,

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he's got he's got the command issues, and the Dodgers

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are certainly a team that can exploit that. My gut

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says under here, I'm not going to have a play.

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And I'm going to go back to Brian Leonard. What

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do you got to add you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, two things. We went through the same thing last

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year before the season, Brandon was really big on the

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Dodgers setting a record and this year the same way.

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And I told him, I said, the problem is they're

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so good they it's hard to get up for every

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single game. What I would say is when they play

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divisional rivals, the Padres, the Giants of the like, those

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are the games I would want to play on the

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Dodgers if the line is good, because all they have

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to do is win their division and they're set up

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for the playoffs. That's all they care about. And they've

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got so many pitchers that are coming back from injury

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right now, and we saw she coming back. I think

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she is going to be a fixture in the in

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the rotation the rest of the year. They're loaded when

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they get those guys back, and they're just fighting their

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way through it. And this is not the same Dodgers

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team that we will see once the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: Come, Big five second come in here. The Dodgers are

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on pace to have sixty wins at the All Star break.

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That's on pace for one hundred and twenty wins on

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the season.

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Speaker 3: So there's now the All Star break is coming late

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in the season. Right now, the Dodgers have already played games,

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so you can't do that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I stand correct.

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Speaker 2: The second half's always short. Why I'm not quite sure.

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But anyway, first of all, shout out Carmin and Bianco.

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He's in the chat.

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Speaker 1: Not only is he in the chat watching the show,

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he's getting on the viewers to like and subscribe, making

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my job so much easier. So shout out to Carmine.

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Does not need to be doing that, but he is,

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and we appreciate it. We appreciate all of you guys

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tuning in. All right, A couple of people in the

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chat had figured out the hat. Brian Leonard, do you

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have a guess as to what the hat is?

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Speaker 3: Oh, I will guess. I don't know the color scheme,

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but I would guess Myrtle Beach.

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Speaker 2: That's correct.

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Speaker 1: It is the Myrtle Beach Pelicans. We had two people

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in the chat get it. Shaw Nance is one of them,

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and t Moss getting the Myrtle Beach Pelicans hat. It

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is a transition here for me as well to the

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next game. We're going to talk about the guy that

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was wearing this hat the beginning of the twenty twenty

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two season was Pete Crow Armstrong. This is the a

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affiliate for the Chicago Cubs down in Myrtle Beach. I've

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been to like six Pelicans games because my family for

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years and years vacation in Myrtle Beach actually a little

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town called Garden City outside of Myrtle Beach. And you know,

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I'm not a huge beach guy, so like the highlight

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of my Myrtle Beach vacation pretty much every year was

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getting over to Pelicans Ballpark to see a Myrtle Beach

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Pelicans game. I actually went the very first year they

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were a team, Brian Leonard. I think I was in

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like eighth grade, seventh eighth grade. They used to be

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a Braves affiliate, and somewhere I have a ball with

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the Raphael for Call's signature on it when he was

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a Pelican back in the day.

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Speaker 2: So have been there a bunch of times.

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Speaker 1: It's a great little ballpark and they are now the

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a affiliate for the Cubs, and a guy by the

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name of Pete car Armstrong started his season there in

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twenty twenty two. He's now much more than a Myrtle

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Beach Pelican. He could be the envy Well, he's in

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the conversation to be one of the to be an

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MVP of the league this year. I remember when he

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got traded to the Cubs and he kind of was like,

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he was like shocked they traded him, said they never

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talked to him about it, and he thought it was

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a joke. He's kind of like he's proved to be right.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you have to always go back and look at

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where teams were at the time. The Mets needed bias

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at the time. But what a trait that has been

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for the Chicago Cubs, arguably what has vaulted them into

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being what I think is the more legitimate NL contender

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to the Dodgers than a team like the Brewers. I

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really think this Cubs team is going to be their

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long term this year. And so our guy Yamamoto didn't

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have a great day yesterday. We have another Japanese pitcher

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on the mound here. I think he fares a little

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bit better than than Yamamoto, Brian Leonards, So talk to me.

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Cubs Twins, Imanaga, Simeon Woods, Richardson in Minnesota tonight.

255
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Speaker 3: Yeah, Imanaga lefty going against Woods. You're ready?

256
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Speaker 1: Uh?

257
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Speaker 3: About one twenty six is the favorite Cubs total of

258
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nine in this game?

259
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Speaker 1: Uh?

260
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Speaker 3: Iaga last time out? Uh did not perform as I expected.

261
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Gave up three earn the runs and five and a

262
00:13:02,759 --> 00:13:06,919
third innings to the Cleveland Guardians. That was our losery

263
00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,840
yesterday in my part of the parlay four innings a

264
00:13:09,879 --> 00:13:11,919
shutout ball. All of a sudden, once you get to

265
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the fifth inning, Cleveland has started to hit. I don't

266
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know if I buy you into it a whole lot,

267
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but Minaga had thrown two shutouts five innings, both times

268
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against the car against the Cardinals, and then he gave

269
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,919
up two runs against the Brewers before that, so he's

270
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been pitching pretty well. The one before that against the

271
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Pirates through a shutout, so he's been very consistent coming

272
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off one of his lesser starts. Two point seven to

273
00:13:37,519 --> 00:13:43,480
eight e RA on the season, and his expected ERA

274
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:49,600
is let's see four point one to three. His whip

275
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,559
one point zero zero. He's got a lot of red

276
00:13:52,759 --> 00:13:55,240
and a lot of blue on his cards, so he's

277
00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,840
not as impressive as you would you would think. First

278
00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:02,080
of all, his strike upercentage is really down this year.

279
00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:03,759
Last year he came in with it, he had a

280
00:14:03,799 --> 00:14:06,559
twenty five point one percentage. Now it's down to eighteen

281
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,759
point seven. That could very well be injury because he

282
00:14:10,799 --> 00:14:13,399
has missed some time this year, so you got to

283
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,679
kick that in mind. But his ground ball percentage second

284
00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,200
percentile means he's a big fly ball hitter or folletball pitcher.

285
00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:26,080
Fastball velocity ninth percentile, fastball run value eighth percentile, bear

286
00:14:26,159 --> 00:14:31,360
all right, nineteenth percentile. He's a tough guy right now

287
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,080
to put a lot of stock in, but from what

288
00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,279
he's done in the past, we could see another good

289
00:14:37,279 --> 00:14:41,080
outing from him. Woods Richardson is basically a guy who's

290
00:14:41,159 --> 00:14:44,480
your last guy in the Minnesota rotation while they wait

291
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,840
for some other guys to get back. Four point four

292
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:51,519
to one ERA, four point three six expected lifetime in

293
00:14:51,559 --> 00:14:55,360
four seasons, four point three five ERA. He's a guy

294
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,159
does have a pretty high whip one point three to

295
00:14:58,159 --> 00:15:02,320
two overall, well, got good extension of seventy eight percentile,

296
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,279
but that's about it. Ground ball rate, he's also a

297
00:15:05,279 --> 00:15:08,120
flyball pitcher. Ground ball rate ninth percentile, barrel rate ten

298
00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:13,799
percentile all spreed run value fifth percentile. Not a good combination.

299
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,759
So when I take a look at this game, I

300
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,000
like the over a little bit, but open eight and

301
00:15:21,039 --> 00:15:23,200
a half twenty to the over. Now it's nine to

302
00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,240
fifteen to the over. It's tough playing over as the

303
00:15:26,279 --> 00:15:29,480
way Minnesota offense has been, but I think Chicago will

304
00:15:29,519 --> 00:15:31,919
have some success. Let's take a quick look here on

305
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,080
the team total for the Cubs. We're looking at four

306
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:38,240
and a half over, maybe twenty five. That's not a

307
00:15:38,279 --> 00:15:41,159
bad bet, either the game over or the Cubs team

308
00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,200
total over, or probably the way I would approach this game.

309
00:15:47,559 --> 00:15:52,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, imon Aga interesting. He pitches much better on the

310
00:15:52,279 --> 00:15:55,000
road than he does at home. He's era on the

311
00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,399
road in twenty seven innings, decent sample size is under two,

312
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,960
and he's got great numbers against Minnesota, but it's a

313
00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,039
small sample size as well. It's only seventeen at bats against,

314
00:16:05,679 --> 00:16:11,480
but he handled them quite easily. Woods Richardson is interesting.

315
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:19,200
He's very inconsistent. He can go five innings nowhere and runs,

316
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,679
and then the next game he'll give up six. Next

317
00:16:21,679 --> 00:16:24,200
game he'll give up zero, next game he'll give up five.

318
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:29,879
So he's wildly inconsistent, But one thing I did notice

319
00:16:29,879 --> 00:16:33,960
about that well, going through the ratings of both teams, obviously,

320
00:16:34,039 --> 00:16:37,519
I think the Cubs. Yeah, the Cubs rank better at

321
00:16:37,519 --> 00:16:41,039
almost everything. Their bullpen's playing better than Minnesota's, their lineups

322
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,360
hitting better than Minnesota's, and I have the two starting

323
00:16:43,399 --> 00:16:48,960
pitchers including expected values. I have the two starting pitchers

324
00:16:49,039 --> 00:16:52,799
basically equal. One interesting stat, so I would go with

325
00:16:52,799 --> 00:16:56,279
the Cubs if anything. One interesting stat though, im and

326
00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:59,399
n Aga. He walks less than one guy per start,

327
00:16:59,519 --> 00:17:05,039
and and the Minnesota walks only about two point three

328
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,160
per game. So if you average that together, I project

329
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,680
Imanaga's walks so Imanaka is the opposite of a chronic walker.

330
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,279
He walked, I project him to only walk one point seven,

331
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,359
so I would think under one point five walks for

332
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,079
Emanaga would also be a decent bet in this game.

333
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,119
So if I'm going to bet it, I would either

334
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,599
go with the Cubs or Imanaga's walks under.

335
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have a theme here.

336
00:17:28,839 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 1: Young guys at the Mets have given up on Simeon

337
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,799
Woods richardson second round pick of the Mets back in

338
00:17:33,839 --> 00:17:34,640
twenty eighteen.

339
00:17:35,599 --> 00:17:36,319
Speaker 2: I think he's on.

340
00:17:36,319 --> 00:17:37,799
Speaker 1: His like third or I think this is like his

341
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,599
third organization now though they gave up on him early,

342
00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:42,599
but neither here nor there.

343
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Speaker 2: I've given up on him a while ago too, Guys.

344
00:17:45,039 --> 00:17:49,559
Speaker 1: I'm with G Hurt, our guy, G Hurt, And you know,

345
00:17:50,079 --> 00:17:52,880
I don't expect him to like the Twins in any capacity.

346
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,160
I know he's a Tigers fan, he says Simeon Woods

347
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,759
Richardson is a huge faith I very much agree with that.

348
00:17:58,359 --> 00:17:59,960
He's been a fade for me most of the year.

349
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,200
Ethan Bainbridge line feels short for the Cubs. I agree

350
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,920
with that as well. And I had David's comment up

351
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,799
a second ago where he says, maybe some some PCA props. Yeah,

352
00:18:09,799 --> 00:18:12,079
this seems like a good matchup for pret Crow Armstrong

353
00:18:12,559 --> 00:18:16,319
up against a right handed pitcher in Woods Richardson. That

354
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,119
it's really like a fastball, and that that's about it,

355
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:25,119
Like there's really there's not. In my opinion, there's just

356
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,839
not a ton to like for a starter at the

357
00:18:27,839 --> 00:18:28,640
big league level.

358
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:30,440
Speaker 2: He's the type of guy that I kind of agree

359
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:30,839
with Brian.

360
00:18:31,079 --> 00:18:34,200
Speaker 1: He's holding down a rotation spot right now because they

361
00:18:34,279 --> 00:18:37,519
lack better options. They haven't really been able to trust

362
00:18:37,559 --> 00:18:39,039
to David Festa in that spot.

363
00:18:39,319 --> 00:18:40,839
Speaker 2: Zebbi Matthews took a step back.

364
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,880
Speaker 1: So really that was the He's really there by default

365
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,160
right now, and I think that if you recognize that

366
00:18:48,519 --> 00:18:52,799
and you're playing against that, it's probably a profitable sort

367
00:18:52,799 --> 00:18:56,880
of angle while he is still in the rotation. I minaga.

368
00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,759
I don't think we have to, like, you know, discuss

369
00:18:59,799 --> 00:19:03,200
that much further. Obviously the better starting pitching option. I'm

370
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,240
still such a believer in this Cubs team, Like, I

371
00:19:05,279 --> 00:19:07,480
really think that they belong in the conversation with the

372
00:19:07,519 --> 00:19:10,039
elite top team, like this is a team that can

373
00:19:10,039 --> 00:19:12,200
win a World Series this year. I truly feel that way.

374
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,480
And yeah, that this line is short, I'm gonna I'm

375
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,279
gonna wait. I may circle back to this one. This

376
00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:20,319
might be my parlay league. I have six games on

377
00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,319
my list that I'm strongly considering for today. Cubs is

378
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,279
one of them. So I'm not gonna lock it in

379
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,599
just yet. But I am and gee hur also a

380
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,519
comment that I'll pull up that I agree with. He

381
00:19:31,559 --> 00:19:34,480
says Twins are a fade. I'm selling the Twins. I

382
00:19:34,519 --> 00:19:37,240
am too. I I just don't like this team. I don't.

383
00:19:37,559 --> 00:19:39,559
I just don't think there's enough juice in that lineup

384
00:19:39,599 --> 00:19:42,359
one to nine. There's not enough bullpen once you get

385
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,119
past Joe and Duran and Griffin Jacks. So yes, I'm

386
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,079
with you. The Twins are a cell. The Cubs are

387
00:19:47,079 --> 00:19:49,519
a far superior team, and I like the Cubs here.

388
00:19:50,599 --> 00:19:51,759
Speaker 2: All right, let's move it on.

389
00:19:55,039 --> 00:20:00,440
Speaker 1: I got I got so into that, into that Cubs conversation.

390
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,920
I forgot to add a different game. But I will,

391
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,480
I gotta, We'll go to this one because Mark Kinsen says,

392
00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:10,319
I'm here bright and early to see which chat member

393
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,400
is man enough to admit when they're wrong. I'll go first.

394
00:20:13,759 --> 00:20:15,839
I was wrong about the White Sox last night. I

395
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,119
was wrong about really not so much wrong about the

396
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,559
White Sox. I was wrong about the Blue Jays sort

397
00:20:20,599 --> 00:20:24,279
of rolling in and you know, not really giving a

398
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,599
huge effort. It looked like I was on the right track,

399
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,279
Brian Leonard, But then the Blue Jays woke up, the

400
00:20:30,279 --> 00:20:33,920
ball started leaving the yard. I saw Tokyo Brandon cashed

401
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,640
with Sean Burke out under. That should have been a

402
00:20:36,759 --> 00:20:39,519
far easier winner than it was. I don't know what

403
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:41,519
the White Sox were doing leaving him in there.

404
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 4: He tried to kill me. They tried to kill me.

405
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,240
But then he gave up a single or no, he

406
00:20:48,279 --> 00:20:50,720
gave up a double, then a home run, then he

407
00:20:50,839 --> 00:20:53,599
gave up the single, and then they finally took him out.

408
00:20:54,079 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, it was clear that. I mean, he pitched

409
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,200
really well through the first four innings. It was clear

410
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,160
started for him out in the and then it was

411
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,160
still a very winnable game. It was like a three

412
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,759
to one game, and they kind of let him, you know,

413
00:21:05,839 --> 00:21:09,079
they left him out there to create a situation that

414
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,680
turned into an eight one game, and it still ended

415
00:21:11,759 --> 00:21:14,279
up being a I still had a chance, but Miguel

416
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,079
Vargas missed a three run homer in the ninth by

417
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,119
a couple feet that would have a back door that

418
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,519
plus one and a half for me. But anyway, Mark Kinson,

419
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,680
I'll go I was also wrong about the Tigers. I'm

420
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,680
sure Sean I haven't even seen the chat yet. I'm

421
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,079
sure Sean is reminding me that Kiedro Montero is like

422
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,599
now the second coming of Sandy Kopax at home. Was

423
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,839
wrong about that one as well, I'll admit it. But

424
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,200
someone else in the chat wants to talk this Blue

425
00:21:37,279 --> 00:21:42,920
Jays run. Now nine games they're playing incredible ball. In hindsight,

426
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,119
I'm kicking myself a little bit that I stepped in

427
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:46,839
front of that. Though I still really like my White

428
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,160
Sox handicap for yesterday. I don't like the White Sox

429
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,319
as much today. Brian Leonard, I don't think I'll be

430
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,240
involved in this one, but I want to see what

431
00:21:54,279 --> 00:21:57,359
you guys think. Chris Bassett Aaron Savali were back in

432
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,079
the South Side Blue Jays White Sox.

433
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually yesterday. I was with you. They took

434
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,240
a one nothing lead, obviously early, and then Toronto's bats

435
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,160
just woke up and really took it to him. I

436
00:22:10,279 --> 00:22:12,240
expect a little bit more of the same of that today.

437
00:22:13,079 --> 00:22:15,880
We're looking at Toronto basically a one ninety favorite, eight

438
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,839
and a half on the total late and half over.

439
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:25,680
I was looking at team totals here earlier before the show,

440
00:22:26,799 --> 00:22:30,160
and if Toronto scores six runs here, you get the victory. No,

441
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:35,559
it's a it's plus money coming back, so you're you're

442
00:22:35,599 --> 00:22:38,079
getting like plus one twenty coming back. You can take

443
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,799
Toronto to score six runs. They may do that the

444
00:22:40,799 --> 00:22:42,799
way they've been hitting right now. In near Svali, you

445
00:22:42,799 --> 00:22:45,720
know you wanted that trade, but he has not pitched

446
00:22:45,839 --> 00:22:47,920
very well since the trade. I think we may be

447
00:22:48,039 --> 00:22:51,400
at the end of his career, if it wasn't already.

448
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,640
Chris Bassett four point three two ERA three point eighty

449
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,759
five expected one point three to nine whip. His whip

450
00:22:57,799 --> 00:22:59,319
is a little high the last couple of years. Last

451
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:03,359
year as one point four six great average Eaxson velocity

452
00:23:03,519 --> 00:23:07,440
ninetieth percentile, walk right seventy eighth percentile, hard rate rate

453
00:23:07,519 --> 00:23:10,680
eighty third. So this is a veteran. He's been around

454
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,359
eleven seasons, He's won eighty games in the major leagues.

455
00:23:13,839 --> 00:23:18,359
He knows how to pitch. He's got eight pitches if

456
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,079
you count as change up one percent and slider two percent.

457
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:28,599
But he uses some other things more often. But he

458
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,759
can throw a lot of junk at you. And this

459
00:23:30,839 --> 00:23:34,480
White Sox team, for the most part, is a very

460
00:23:34,519 --> 00:23:37,200
young team. And I think he will have some success

461
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:41,359
against this White Sox club because he's done it before

462
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,160
and I think he'll do it again with this team

463
00:23:44,839 --> 00:23:47,759
White Sox. As I mentioned Aaron Savali four point six,

464
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,519
Ohira four point five six expected one point four to

465
00:23:51,559 --> 00:23:55,599
nine whip, and that he's been around seven seasons, and

466
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,599
that's very high for him. Strikeout ray right now is

467
00:23:58,599 --> 00:24:01,720
at nine point four, the first time in his career

468
00:24:01,759 --> 00:24:04,519
it's been better than there has been worse than league average,

469
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,880
which is eight point four. So he's had problems with control.

470
00:24:08,519 --> 00:24:11,279
He's dead last and Major League Baseball and extension, so

471
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,359
the other team's got plenty of time to take a

472
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,480
look at it. He can't get chase chases very much

473
00:24:16,519 --> 00:24:18,720
like Tanner Biby. Going into yesterday, we talked about that.

474
00:24:19,519 --> 00:24:21,720
He's in a ten percent talle and chase rate sixteen

475
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:25,440
percent talent strekeout rate. So you've got a guy who

476
00:24:25,519 --> 00:24:28,240
doesn't have the ability to strike out the opposition. There's

477
00:24:28,319 --> 00:24:31,559
more time to look at the pitches he throws, and

478
00:24:31,599 --> 00:24:34,839
he does throw seven pitches if you if you count

479
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,400
everything one percent, five percent, a nine percent, so he

480
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,440
does have a pretty good mixed bag there, but he

481
00:24:41,559 --> 00:24:43,920
just does not have the ability to strike people out.

482
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,160
He is keeping on them a little bit off balance

483
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,160
with a seventy seven percent average ex of velocity, but

484
00:24:50,279 --> 00:24:53,279
still when you can't get him to chase after your

485
00:24:53,319 --> 00:24:57,799
pitches and your extreme flyball pitcher, he's in the ninth

486
00:24:57,799 --> 00:25:00,960
percent tile ground ball rate. I think Toronto can have

487
00:25:01,079 --> 00:25:03,880
some success against him. I'd be willing to take that

488
00:25:04,039 --> 00:25:06,119
chance to get plus one twenty back on Toronto to

489
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,799
score six runs here, I think they'll have a good

490
00:25:08,799 --> 00:25:11,000
offensive day. I will not be on the White Sox

491
00:25:11,039 --> 00:25:11,559
in this one.

492
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,599
Speaker 4: So there's a play in this game that I put

493
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,640
out to my clients right before the show. Actually, wow,

494
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,960
we were filming at the beginning of the show. Before

495
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,559
I get to that. It's five dollars Tuesday, guys, So

496
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,400
before Adam wraps up the show without letting us promoting them,

497
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,279
I'm going to do it right now. So five dollars Tuesday.

498
00:25:30,559 --> 00:25:32,119
If you go down there at the banner, you can

499
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,640
see Brian's gonna have something. Adam's going to have some

500
00:25:34,839 --> 00:25:39,039
I already have something. So three best baseball cappers on

501
00:25:39,079 --> 00:25:41,599
the planet get something from us for five dollars. I

502
00:25:41,599 --> 00:25:46,160
know Brian always chuckles when I say that, So so

503
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,000
let's get onto the cap for this one. The play

504
00:25:49,039 --> 00:25:56,240
I gave out is Savales walks right now on draft Kings,

505
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,000
they don't have the walks over under, but they do

506
00:25:59,079 --> 00:26:02,039
have walks allow, so you can get two plus for

507
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:06,160
Aaron Savallee for I think minus forty right now, go

508
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,119
grab it because I think it's a great play. He

509
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:14,559
walks in his history against this team, against these batters,

510
00:26:14,599 --> 00:26:18,880
he walks two point three seven per start, and I

511
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,599
project him to walk three point two here. Toronto is

512
00:26:21,599 --> 00:26:24,480
one of the biggest walking teams in MLB. They're walking

513
00:26:24,519 --> 00:26:28,880
four point one times a game, and Savali's walking over

514
00:26:29,799 --> 00:26:33,279
two point three per game, So I would grab that.

515
00:26:33,319 --> 00:26:35,359
I think it's a good play. I project him to

516
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:42,920
walk over three. Regarding the team breakdowns team breakdowns, Toronto

517
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,519
pretty much is good at everything except their bullpen is

518
00:26:46,519 --> 00:26:52,079
struggling right now. It's hard to I have Bassett on

519
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,519
a cur on a rank on it was ninety five

520
00:26:55,559 --> 00:26:58,319
degrees in eighty three percent humidity today, guys, so my

521
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:02,640
brain is a little bit fried. It's it's not drugs,

522
00:27:02,839 --> 00:27:05,880
so uh, and it's not alcohol. I've laid off the

523
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,599
alcohol tonight. So I've got Bassett and Savally both ranked

524
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,799
twenty or worse on a curve of thirty. But I

525
00:27:12,799 --> 00:27:16,759
got Toronto's hitting number three, and I got the White

526
00:27:16,759 --> 00:27:21,319
Sox hitting twenty. So the Blue Jays do have an advantage,

527
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,319
but their bullpen is playing really poorly right now, and

528
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,200
the White Sox bullpen's actually playing quite well, so I

529
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,920
would have trouble taking them on a full game. But

530
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,519
Savalle's walks is the way I would go in this one.

531
00:27:34,039 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 2: Tbe You're not wrong about that.

532
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:41,039
Speaker 1: The sun is far more fs me up, far more

533
00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:44,279
than like twelve beers would I could drive, I could

534
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,839
drink ten beers, be totally normal. You put me out

535
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,960
in the sun for a couple hours. I'm all sorts

536
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:50,519
of messed up.

537
00:27:50,519 --> 00:27:51,079
Speaker 2: So I feel you.

538
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: We've had the listen. I'm a north I've lived my

539
00:27:54,279 --> 00:27:57,079
entire life in the Northeast. Like, I don't handle extreme

540
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,480
heat very well. We had a day like that on

541
00:27:59,559 --> 00:28:02,920
Saturday Sunday. I was melting at the Syracuse Mets game.

542
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,559
I never really want to leave a baseball game. Early

543
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:07,880
on Sunday I was like I was ready to go

544
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,559
like six, and then I was like, this is insane.

545
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,000
Can't sit out here any longer. Steve Duke, I agree

546
00:28:12,039 --> 00:28:15,960
with you. This streak is well deserved. Toronto has been awesome.

547
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,119
It goes back to sort of what Tokyo Brandon was

548
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,000
talking about. Yeah, they probably will draw their walks because

549
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,440
it's just good at that, after good at that, it's

550
00:28:23,519 --> 00:28:26,000
kind of like reminiscent of when the Cubs were on

551
00:28:26,039 --> 00:28:28,279
a really good run earlier this year. To get to

552
00:28:28,319 --> 00:28:30,680
the point that they're at, it just felt like one

553
00:28:30,759 --> 00:28:34,319
through nine they had a great at that. Yesterday The

554
00:28:34,319 --> 00:28:36,759
one that sticks out to me, Brian Leonard was Boba

555
00:28:36,799 --> 00:28:40,799
Schett was up there having a good at that. I

556
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:45,839
believe he hit a ball foul down the third base

557
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,039
line that would have been a double.

558
00:28:47,079 --> 00:28:49,039
Speaker 2: It was like a foot file. He ripped it.

559
00:28:49,039 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: It was not his fault, right, it was just unlucky

560
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,079
that it stayed foul. Next pitch, Burke throws him as

561
00:28:55,079 --> 00:28:57,160
good of a pitch as he possibly could on the

562
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,559
outer half of the plate for a ball, a pitch

563
00:28:59,559 --> 00:29:03,279
that should ever have been hit, and Boba Schett slaps

564
00:29:03,319 --> 00:29:05,920
it the other way for a double down the other

565
00:29:06,039 --> 00:29:07,880
line that started.

566
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:08,119
Speaker 2: That whole inning.

567
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: Like it's stuff like that that the Blue Jays are

568
00:29:10,519 --> 00:29:14,079
doing right now that is making it very very difficult

569
00:29:14,079 --> 00:29:17,200
to bet against this team, and I have no interest

570
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:18,160
in betting against them here.

571
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 2: I liked how the pitching set up yesterday for the

572
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:21,359
White Sox. I thought they would have.

573
00:29:21,319 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 1: Done more against Barrios, and they didn't, and so I'm

574
00:29:25,519 --> 00:29:27,720
not gonna be stubborn. I'm not coming back with it here.

575
00:29:27,759 --> 00:29:30,920
Maybe tomorrow if it sets up better. But I have

576
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,400
no interest in going against the Blue Jays. Blue Jays

577
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:33,960
are passed for me.

578
00:29:34,079 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Bran.

579
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: Yeah. Just the other day, when the Blue Jays swept

580
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,839
the Yankees, first home sweep of the Yankees in their history,

581
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,559
I said they would have electin on. They have not

582
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,680
had a let down. They're playing the Chicago White Sox.

583
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,440
If there's any team to have a letdown against this,

584
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,599
it's the White Sox. And they can continue to win.

585
00:29:53,039 --> 00:29:57,480
Hats off to the Blue Jays management, the players. A

586
00:29:57,519 --> 00:29:59,119
lot of teams proved me wrong a lot of times

587
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,839
all season long. And for them to come back out

588
00:30:01,839 --> 00:30:05,160
of that Yankee series and still when tells you this

589
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,319
team has got a nice friend going. And yeah, other

590
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:10,400
than yesterday where I thought there was a good spot

591
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,559
to go against him, I'm not gonna do it again today.

592
00:30:15,559 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 2: I gotta be honest. Oh go ahead, Were you gonna

593
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:18,480
add something?

594
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:18,599
Speaker 1: No?

595
00:30:18,599 --> 00:30:21,279
Speaker 4: No, I'm good, I'm good. I'm good. My brain is fried.

596
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:22,960
Keep going.

597
00:30:23,799 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to In the chat, he says Tigers

598
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:30,480
are more likely to lose today or tomorrow, not yesterday. Uh,

599
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,240
I would say that, I agree with I kind of

600
00:30:34,279 --> 00:30:37,279
I think that, And then Sean's little voice in my

601
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,680
ear saying, Kyder Montero is just lights out at home

602
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,480
kept me off the Rays yesterday. So I very much

603
00:30:43,519 --> 00:30:47,519
appreciate that because he was awesome. Like, hey, let's like

604
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,000
give credit where credit is due. The Tigers have been

605
00:30:51,039 --> 00:30:55,440
great and Kyder Montero has. I can't believe the season

606
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,720
that he's having for that team, Like this is a

607
00:30:58,759 --> 00:31:01,079
guy that I thought would have just gotten lit up

608
00:31:01,839 --> 00:31:03,519
at the big league level if they've tried to keep

609
00:31:03,559 --> 00:31:04,240
him as a starter.

610
00:31:04,559 --> 00:31:06,759
Speaker 2: He's been awesome. It's Tiger's Rays.

611
00:31:06,799 --> 00:31:09,359
Speaker 1: Before we get into this breakdown, one more fun fact

612
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,799
about the Myrtle Beach Pelicans for you, Brian Leonard. They

613
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,359
are the original Durham Bulls. One of the best movies

614
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:20,880
in the history of cinema, not just Sports bull Durham

615
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,039
phenomenal movie. That team that they highlighted in that movie

616
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,880
was the single A team they were in Single A

617
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,279
back then. Kevin Costner's character was down there to mentor

618
00:31:31,319 --> 00:31:34,519
a single A kid with potential. That Durham Bulls moved

619
00:31:34,519 --> 00:31:36,960
to Myrtle Beach became the Myrtle Beach Pelicans and they

620
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,960
created a new Durham Bulls as a Triple A team

621
00:31:40,079 --> 00:31:42,640
when the Rays, the team we're going to talk about here,

622
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:44,799
came into the league back in the late nineties. So

623
00:31:44,839 --> 00:31:48,160
one more fun Myrtle Beach Pelicans fact for you guys.

624
00:31:49,039 --> 00:31:51,000
But now the Myrtle Beach Pelicans or I'm sorry, the

625
00:31:51,039 --> 00:31:53,480
Durham Bulls Triple A for the Rays. A lot of

626
00:31:53,519 --> 00:31:57,839
those guys have now come up and are making an impact.

627
00:31:57,519 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 2: At the big league level. These two teams, Brian are are.

628
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,279
Speaker 1: They're following the same formula and it's it's not surprising

629
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,079
that they're having the success they're having. They both have

630
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,799
tremendous farm systems, they identify talent. I didn't mean to

631
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,640
slander Kevin Cash yesterday. I was just pissed off that

632
00:32:13,759 --> 00:32:16,119
he doesn't like read the room a little bit more.

633
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,200
He's still a tremendous coach. The organization is run as

634
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,920
well as you could possibly run an organization, especially with

635
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,079
the payroll they have Tiger's raise.

636
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:25,799
Speaker 2: Is this a game that we're going to see in

637
00:32:25,839 --> 00:32:28,680
the playoffs at some point? It could be? And what

638
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:29,319
do you think here?

639
00:32:29,359 --> 00:32:31,759
Speaker 1: It's Pepio Flaherty a tough matchup in my opinion, but

640
00:32:31,799 --> 00:32:33,279
I know the chat wants to talk about it.

641
00:32:33,319 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 2: So Tiger's raised. Let's go.

642
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, being from Cleveland with a team who doesn't put owners,

643
00:32:38,599 --> 00:32:40,359
that don't put a lot of money into the team,

644
00:32:40,839 --> 00:32:44,240
and most of their scouting is what they what they do.

645
00:32:44,319 --> 00:32:48,559
They bring up pretty good drafts and that they're able

646
00:32:48,559 --> 00:32:50,559
to do it that way. These are the type of teams.

647
00:32:50,599 --> 00:32:52,920
I love Tampa Bay for years, Detroit the way they're

648
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,279
playing right now. If you look at Detroit, I know

649
00:32:56,319 --> 00:32:57,880
they've got some all stars on the team, a lot

650
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:04,119
of fan votes, but there's really other than Scooball, a

651
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,920
lot of guys that are not you know, just popping

652
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,759
off your head. Greens great and some other guys are

653
00:33:09,759 --> 00:33:12,319
having really nice seasons. But they were able to win

654
00:33:12,559 --> 00:33:15,440
with their full a lot. But the players just like

655
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,720
Tampa Bay has been and they send guys up and

656
00:33:17,759 --> 00:33:20,680
down for the miners. You know, it's like Montero and

657
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:22,759
he's getting the job done. So hats off to both

658
00:33:22,759 --> 00:33:25,880
these teams. Anytime you can get more out of your

659
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:30,599
team than all other clubs like the Yankees and the

660
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:32,720
Red Sox and some others that pay all this money

661
00:33:32,759 --> 00:33:35,359
for the veterans. That's a ton of teams I want

662
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,079
to back, and I'm a fan of those teams. Pepio

663
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,519
and Flaherty and this one flarity about a one thirty

664
00:33:40,559 --> 00:33:45,240
favorite total of eight. Pepio has been very good for

665
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,880
Tampa Bay this year. Three point three four ERA, three

666
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:51,640
point nine and three expected one point one five whip,

667
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,359
very good extension, that's probably what he's best at seventy

668
00:33:54,359 --> 00:33:57,480
fourth percentile. He does have some blue His average eggs

669
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,359
of velocity twenty seven percent tell not terrible, but not

670
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:05,240
what you'd want. Part hit rate thirty five percent, bear

671
00:34:05,279 --> 00:34:08,039
all right thirty seven so he can be hit a

672
00:34:08,079 --> 00:34:10,559
little bit, but he usually gives you a pretty good

673
00:34:10,559 --> 00:34:14,239
effort when he is on the mile. Jack Filerty He's

674
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:18,559
lost nine games this year already. Last year in one

675
00:34:18,599 --> 00:34:20,960
hundred and sixty two winnings, he only lost seven games.

676
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,280
He comes in five and nine, four point eight four ERA,

677
00:34:24,599 --> 00:34:28,400
four point one zero expected one point two four whip.

678
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:30,920
Take a look at his splits because he's had some.

679
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:35,199
Really his home very similar to this year as before.

680
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,239
His Homie RA three point eight three road e ra

681
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,440
six point oh eight home whip one point one one

682
00:34:42,199 --> 00:34:45,760
road one point four or zero. So he is a guy.

683
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,000
If you're going to play him, you play him at home.

684
00:34:49,079 --> 00:34:53,400
His strikeout percentage eighty eighth percentile, with rate seventy six percentile.

685
00:34:53,559 --> 00:34:56,320
Great problem is when he gets hit, he gets hit hard,

686
00:34:56,599 --> 00:35:00,599
bear all right, fourteenth percentile, hard hit seventeenth, ball right

687
00:35:00,639 --> 00:35:02,920
only the fifteenth. So he's a fly ball pitcher. But

688
00:35:03,039 --> 00:35:08,800
this is a good pitcher's park in Detroit. Pepio and

689
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,800
Flarity here one twenty three, one thirty. As I mentioned before,

690
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:16,719
one thirty eight, I think Allian's pretty good. I slightly

691
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,280
in with Detroit here because Flarity is pitching at home.

692
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,800
But I like both those teams. I really don't want

693
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,519
to go again do the one of them, so I'll

694
00:35:24,519 --> 00:35:26,400
probably be passing on this one.

695
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 4: Can you bet more than a thousand games in a year,

696
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:37,760
You you tend to stay away from certain things, and

697
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,960
you just can't win when you bet certain things. And

698
00:35:41,639 --> 00:35:45,239
Flarity is my certain thing. I can't I back in

699
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,519
my lose, I fade in my lose. Flarity is a

700
00:35:49,599 --> 00:35:52,559
thorn in my side. When he was at the Dodgers,

701
00:35:52,559 --> 00:35:57,679
when he's the Tigers before. Yeah, he he bothers me.

702
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,280
So I'm not betting this game, but I will tell

703
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,719
you that his home numbers are great, his numbers against

704
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,639
the Rays in his career horrible. His OPS is over

705
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:11,360
nine hundred. So what do you do when you have

706
00:36:11,679 --> 00:36:15,880
two conflicting sets of data like that? Pepio's numbers against

707
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,880
Detroit against these particular batters are great in his career,

708
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:25,159
he's better at home than on the road. But he's

709
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:30,039
ranked much higher according to my numbers than Flarity. Both

710
00:36:30,079 --> 00:36:35,800
bullpens pretty mediocre, both lineups top ten. So too much

711
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:41,119
conflicting data and we've got that that Flarity guy who

712
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,679
just always gets me. So I'm staying away from this one.

713
00:36:46,199 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna stay away too. I just want to

714
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,800
comment quickly talk about why I'm not gonna bet it.

715
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,800
But you know, I think it's a Sean makes a

716
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,960
good point. He said, you know there is some merit

717
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:00,519
to watching the games, Like I understand. It's to me

718
00:37:00,599 --> 00:37:03,719
too that some people bet on things that they're not

719
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:08,400
watching intently. And the thing is for me, Sean, I

720
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,559
think I almost I've almost seen too much of Montero.

721
00:37:11,679 --> 00:37:15,159
I watched him a ton at Toledo, and it what

722
00:37:15,199 --> 00:37:17,400
they've done with him is something that a lot of

723
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:19,880
pitchers can't handle. They've made him like the Swiss Army

724
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,159
Knife option of their organization, and this takes a toll

725
00:37:23,199 --> 00:37:26,159
on pitchers. I heard Tommy Henry give an interview about

726
00:37:26,199 --> 00:37:28,599
this in game during a Diamondbacks game, where he's like,

727
00:37:29,039 --> 00:37:33,039
it is it is the toughest scenario of my entire career.

728
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,599
Basically being asked to go start a game in Reno,

729
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:37,840
then meet the team on the road, then come out

730
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,440
of the bullpen, then not pitch for seven days, then

731
00:37:40,519 --> 00:37:42,679
start for the big league club, then go back to Reno.

732
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,599
That's basically what they've done with Kaider Montero. They've had

733
00:37:45,679 --> 00:37:48,159
him in Triple A. He comes up, he's the bulk guy.

734
00:37:48,199 --> 00:37:51,320
He's back to Triple A. Now he's starting a game.

735
00:37:51,599 --> 00:37:53,559
You know, he doesn't really know when he's gonna pitch.

736
00:37:53,559 --> 00:37:54,920
He thought he was going to pitch over the weekend

737
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:58,000
in Toledo. Now he's pitching for the Tigers. It's very difficult,

738
00:37:58,079 --> 00:38:00,960
and he's done a tremendous job and doing it. Yesterday

739
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,639
he comes out, gives the team six innings and the

740
00:38:03,679 --> 00:38:05,800
Tigers didn't really have to use much of their bullpen.

741
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:10,440
So I'm out on the Rays right there. Because the Tigers,

742
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,159
when they've got a fresh bullpen, AJ Hinch manages it

743
00:38:13,159 --> 00:38:13,719
as good as.

744
00:38:13,599 --> 00:38:15,679
Speaker 2: Any any manager in the league.

745
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:17,159
Speaker 1: And when he's got you know what did he I

746
00:38:17,199 --> 00:38:20,320
think he used vest at like maybe nineteen pitches yesterday

747
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,159
at Holton through seven, one of the lesser guys through

748
00:38:23,199 --> 00:38:25,800
an inning. So when you've got the Tigers with their

749
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,079
full complement of relievers that way, they don't need to

750
00:38:29,079 --> 00:38:31,840
push Flaerty super deep, they will. You know, I think

751
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:33,960
that he has a bigger leash than some other guys

752
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:34,480
on the team.

753
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:36,320
Speaker 2: It's a very even game.

754
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: But at this point, I'm just not betting against the

755
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:42,719
Tigers unless I feel like I've got like a deficiency somewhere,

756
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,119
and I'm not seeing that here. So I actually think

757
00:38:45,159 --> 00:38:48,440
I leaned the Tigers. Chat will be happy slightlyan toward

758
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,559
the Tigers for me in this we.

759
00:38:50,599 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 4: Be against them winning the World Series because they have

760
00:38:53,079 --> 00:38:53,760
zero shot.

761
00:38:54,079 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, though, toky Tokyo Brandon that al

762
00:38:57,159 --> 00:39:01,800
that American League is looking awfully thin, Like I wouldn't

763
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,119
be that surprised if they're there.

764
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:04,679
Speaker 2: I really, I really wouldn't.

765
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,559
Speaker 1: Like there's not look at who I mean, there's really

766
00:39:08,599 --> 00:39:10,559
not many teams in the ALE that you can like

767
00:39:10,639 --> 00:39:13,639
unequivocally say would be there right now.

768
00:39:13,679 --> 00:39:15,119
Speaker 2: Over the Tigers, I would not.

769
00:39:15,079 --> 00:39:18,639
Speaker 4: Say series they were.

770
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,679
Speaker 2: They were right, they were right there last year. They

771
00:39:21,679 --> 00:39:24,280
were right there last year in baseball.

772
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 3: One of the best managers in baseball. Just because you

773
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:30,800
don't have big hands, I mean, you can't play ball.

774
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they have the postseason experience from last year, don't.

775
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: I'm I'm kind of getting kind of warming up to

776
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,480
them being the the ALE representative in the World Series

777
00:39:39,519 --> 00:39:42,199
because I'm not a believer in the Astros. Yeah, the

778
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:44,719
Yankees should be the best. I do like this Blue

779
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:46,760
Jays team though, so we'll see. That's that's the beauty

780
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,079
of this. We still were We're Brian, what are we?

781
00:39:49,119 --> 00:39:51,599
Almost one hundred games into the season and we've still

782
00:39:51,639 --> 00:39:55,239
got like sixty five seventy left. Baseball is not for everyone.

783
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,320
I love the one hundred and sixty two game grind.

784
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,920
Ethan Baybridge loves it too. He's here every day grinding

785
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,280
and out with us, and he says the Reds are

786
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:07,639
in a good bounce back spot today. Maybe this is

787
00:40:07,639 --> 00:40:10,079
an interesting one. These are two guys that we've talked

788
00:40:10,119 --> 00:40:12,119
quite a bit about. We've got Uri Perez and I

789
00:40:12,159 --> 00:40:14,400
believe it's is it Nick Martinez for the Red today?

790
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,039
Brian Leonard, What do you see Marlins Retty?

791
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:21,559
Speaker 3: Nick Martinez? Basically about a one eighteen favorite here total

792
00:40:21,559 --> 00:40:28,119
of nine. Eury Perez last time out, very impressive, six

793
00:40:28,159 --> 00:40:31,599
shutout innings against the Minnesota Twins, a team who's not

794
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,840
hitting very well right now. But other than his openinger,

795
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,400
it came out and pitched three innings against the Pirates.

796
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,400
Since first game coming back from injury, gave up four

797
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,679
runs there. He's been pretty consistent three or less rounds.

798
00:40:43,679 --> 00:40:46,639
He's still Last time out was the first time he's

799
00:40:46,639 --> 00:40:49,360
gone more than five innings or more, and that was

800
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:53,000
the six innings against the Twins. Had a really nice

801
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:55,280
whip in that game one point one eight seven to one,

802
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:59,639
struck out minus walk seven struck us to one walk.

803
00:41:00,559 --> 00:41:00,679
Speaker 1: Uh.

804
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,159
Speaker 3: He's been doing very well and he was very impressive

805
00:41:03,159 --> 00:41:05,679
in that game. Comes in four point five oh e

806
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:11,199
ra ra has expected ERA three point oh two. So

807
00:41:11,519 --> 00:41:13,639
his he's a guy I want to buy on right now.

808
00:41:13,639 --> 00:41:18,360
I believe one point one eight whip basketball ve lost

809
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:22,199
the ninety five fifth percentile. We saw that last year

810
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,360
when he was pitching, or excuse me, in twenty twenty

811
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:27,239
three when he was pitching, if you don't remember that year,

812
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,920
he hit a three point one five ERA one point

813
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,480
one three whip, struck out one hundred and eight batters

814
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,880
and only ninety one and a third innings. This is

815
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,360
a guy that's got a nice future ahead of him,

816
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:42,360
and I like his situation a little bit. Today He's

817
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,719
going up against uh pretty good pitcher in himself and

818
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,719
Nick Martinez, who I really like coming into the season,

819
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,079
hadn't quite lived up to what we thought. You know,

820
00:41:51,079 --> 00:41:53,039
the last two years as the era's were three point

821
00:41:53,039 --> 00:41:56,239
one zero, three point four to three. This year's four

822
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:59,440
point two. Oh and his expecteds four point one five,

823
00:42:00,079 --> 00:42:02,880
one point one seven. With not a major walk guy,

824
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:08,920
He's in the ninety first percentile on walks, hard hit

825
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:12,599
rate eightieth percentile. Those are two pretty good numbers. Not

826
00:42:12,639 --> 00:42:15,239
a big strikeout pittuer, though only in the seventeenth percentile

827
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,280
seventy one strikeouts in one hundred innings. He's never been

828
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,639
one of those guys gonna overpower you chase rate only

829
00:42:22,639 --> 00:42:25,480
in the twelfth percentile, which is a concern. We've got

830
00:42:25,519 --> 00:42:30,000
two pictures I like here, and we're looking at the

831
00:42:30,079 --> 00:42:34,280
total of nine in Cincinnati. This is a good hitters ballpark.

832
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,280
Let me get a quick look here at the weather

833
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:44,760
report in Cincinnati today. Really no way whatsoever, no precipitation,

834
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:48,920
looking about eighty eighty three or four degrees when the

835
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:53,480
game goes off. That's that's pretty hot for Cincinnati. Nothing

836
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:55,360
here in this one. I'd like to bet on both

837
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,760
these guys, but in this ballpark. I don't want to

838
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,800
go under a nine. Henry Ballpark.

839
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 4: Guys, it is five dollars Tuesday. You can get our

840
00:43:06,639 --> 00:43:10,840
feature plays any kapper for five dollars on wager talk

841
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:13,480
dot com. So go there. I already have mine out.

842
00:43:13,599 --> 00:43:16,760
I'm sure Brian and Adam will if they don't already.

843
00:43:17,639 --> 00:43:21,800
Let's go to this game. I have Miami, I mean,

844
00:43:22,119 --> 00:43:24,840
surprisingly as it is. I have Miami a little bit

845
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,280
better than Cincinnati at everything, but only just a little bit.

846
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:32,760
I got Perez and Martina's pretty neck and neck as

847
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,960
far as rankings are concerned. But if you look at

848
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:40,159
how they've performed against the other batters, Martine's in a

849
00:43:40,199 --> 00:43:42,599
forty one at bat sample size, has held these batters

850
00:43:42,639 --> 00:43:49,599
down pretty well, whereas Perez has not. So that worries

851
00:43:49,639 --> 00:43:53,079
me a little bit. But you know, how they've performed

852
00:43:53,079 --> 00:43:56,079
against the other team is only just a small grain

853
00:43:56,159 --> 00:43:58,320
of salt. It's not everything. It's not the tell all

854
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,360
because that could have been two years ago, could have

855
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,159
been three years ago. They could have been put in

856
00:44:02,159 --> 00:44:05,199
in relief situation, you know. So that's not everything. It

857
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:07,880
does mean a little bit, but it's not everything. So

858
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,320
taking a look at the bullpens, I got Miami's bullpen

859
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:16,280
performing at a very high level right now. Cincinnati's is

860
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,960
also performing quite well. Both lineups are a little bit

861
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:23,199
sub mediocre at the moment. If anything, I would go

862
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,719
with an under here. I think an under would be

863
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,920
a good play. Is that the opposite of what you said, Brian?

864
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 3: I said, I'm looking for the under, but the nine

865
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:34,559
is kind of low for being a.

866
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 4: Cincinnati I see, I see. I think an under would

867
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,559
be good here. If either one of these teams is

868
00:44:40,639 --> 00:44:43,039
four and a half on a team total, I think

869
00:44:43,079 --> 00:44:45,480
an under would be a decent play as well, especially

870
00:44:45,519 --> 00:44:48,880
Cincinnati because Miami's bullpen is just on fire right now.

871
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,519
They're performing really well, and they have been for the

872
00:44:51,639 --> 00:44:54,760
last two weeks, So that would be the way I go.

873
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,039
I haven't gone that way yet, but that's the way

874
00:44:57,039 --> 00:44:58,920
I would go if I did. And by the way,

875
00:44:59,679 --> 00:45:01,599
guys tickling me in the chat, take a look at

876
00:45:01,599 --> 00:45:04,480
my bio. If you think I don't know anything about baseball.

877
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:06,519
Speaker 2: I don't think anyone.

878
00:45:07,159 --> 00:45:09,519
Speaker 1: No one should be accusing you of not knowing anything

879
00:45:09,519 --> 00:45:11,840
about baseball. You come on and do it an hour show,

880
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:13,519
like six days a week, five days.

881
00:45:13,559 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 4: I worked in MLB for a decade. I don't know

882
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:17,519
anything about baseball.

883
00:45:17,639 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, I'll tell you what. I'm not betting it

884
00:45:22,519 --> 00:45:24,679
over and I'm not betting against hearing Perez.

885
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,039
Speaker 1: This is a kind of what I foreshadowed here last

886
00:45:28,079 --> 00:45:30,760
week when we talked about this, I said, the upside

887
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,320
of Perez is what you ended up seeing last week. Now,

888
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:36,559
I didn't know when it would come. He has had

889
00:45:36,599 --> 00:45:39,960
a long, long rehab. He had multiple injuries. You know

890
00:45:40,039 --> 00:45:43,480
that he was coming back from. He's been essentially in

891
00:45:43,559 --> 00:45:47,400
rehab mode since spring training, right like he was in

892
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:51,800
the minors for months rehabbing like multiple injuries. So you

893
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:53,360
know it was always going to take him some time.

894
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,159
But man, that was what you saw last time out

895
00:45:56,159 --> 00:45:59,719
from him, the six inning, shutout ball, seven strikeouts. That

896
00:45:59,880 --> 00:46:03,599
is the upside for him, and that's why I can't

897
00:46:03,639 --> 00:46:07,199
bet the Reds here because I would fear that happening again.

898
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 2: If he shows up and he's on like he was

899
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:10,239
in his last.

900
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 1: Start, I don't think the Reds are gonna get much

901
00:46:12,039 --> 00:46:15,599
off of him because because his upside is that now

902
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,559
I like Nick Martinez, I like this Reds team, which

903
00:46:18,599 --> 00:46:20,480
is making it a little bit tougher to go against

904
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:23,400
them here. And then of course you know they are

905
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:25,320
and I guess what you would call a bounce back spot.

906
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:28,400
But Tokyo Brandon, I agree with you. The Marlins suddenly

907
00:46:29,079 --> 00:46:31,760
have a number of good bullpen arms that don't really

908
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,039
get the credit. Like it's reminiscent of what the Rangers

909
00:46:35,079 --> 00:46:36,840
have done with their bullpen a little bit, where it's

910
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:40,000
like they really need they lack, like a really good

911
00:46:40,079 --> 00:46:43,760
high leverage eighth ninth inning option. But the Marlins bullpen

912
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,960
collectively has a lot of good arms down there, and

913
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,440
I don't think they really get the full credit for it.

914
00:46:49,519 --> 00:46:52,480
So I lean Marlins plus money. I think is good.

915
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:55,119
Plus one ten seems fair. I don't know if this

916
00:46:55,159 --> 00:46:57,880
will make my client card. I haven't decided what I'm

917
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:59,599
putting in the parlor yet, though I will and like

918
00:46:59,599 --> 00:47:02,159
the next five minutes or so. But I lean pretty

919
00:47:02,159 --> 00:47:05,079
strong toward the Marlins here, and it's really for me.

920
00:47:05,199 --> 00:47:10,360
It's upside on Perez and they're just their ability to hit.

921
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:13,440
They've hit, they keep hitting, and I don't think Nick

922
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,840
Martinez is a guy they can't hit. So Marlin's plus

923
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:20,039
money would be would be the you know, the value

924
00:47:20,119 --> 00:47:22,440
play here and one that I had on my short

925
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:26,320
list for today. We got about fifteen minutes a show left.

926
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 2: Well, we'll lock in. Listen, I I it's fine.

927
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:34,559
Speaker 1: People are gonna people want to wait till the end

928
00:47:34,559 --> 00:47:36,119
of the show, are going to scroll to the end

929
00:47:36,119 --> 00:47:39,360
anyway to get the parlay. So I kind of have

930
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:43,039
an idea of what my leg will be. If either

931
00:47:43,079 --> 00:47:45,559
of you know what you want to use and want

932
00:47:45,559 --> 00:47:49,039
to throw a game out there, be my guest. Otherwise

933
00:47:49,079 --> 00:47:51,239
we're going to do one from the chat. Do either

934
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:52,440
of you know what you want to put in the

935
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:53,360
parlay yet?

936
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:55,760
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think I do.

937
00:47:56,639 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 2: All right, we'll go to your game what are we

938
00:47:58,719 --> 00:47:59,280
talking about.

939
00:48:00,039 --> 00:48:04,239
Speaker 3: I'm going to take a look here at the Pittsburgh

940
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,400
the Pittsburgh Kansas City game. Now, yesterday they were allowed

941
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,000
to unscored in this game. But for the most part,

942
00:48:10,079 --> 00:48:14,480
neither one of these offenses has done well. Mitch Keller, Well,

943
00:48:14,559 --> 00:48:16,880
let's just talk about the line so far. It's Mitch

944
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:21,119
Keller against Seth Lugo. Lugo's maybe about one thirty five

945
00:48:21,199 --> 00:48:27,199
favorite total of eight Lugo. I've said it before. This

946
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:31,039
stadium and the lack of home runs that are hit

947
00:48:31,119 --> 00:48:34,679
in Kansas City is exactly what we want for the

948
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,719
Kansas City starters. Management here has done a great job

949
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:41,480
bringing in guys who maybe fly ball pitchers that on

950
00:48:41,559 --> 00:48:45,039
the road struggle a little bit, but at home, this

951
00:48:45,119 --> 00:48:48,000
is a perfect ballpark. Mitch Keller, as much as we've

952
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,039
talked about him over the years as being an innings leat,

953
00:48:50,119 --> 00:48:52,599
he's having a really nice season. He pitched you well

954
00:48:52,639 --> 00:48:56,079
again last time out going at this Kansas City team,

955
00:48:56,679 --> 00:49:00,559
which I don't have rated very well offensively one of

956
00:49:00,599 --> 00:49:02,519
the worst offenses. These are actually two of the worst

957
00:49:02,519 --> 00:49:05,519
offenses in Major League Baseball. I think these two pitchers

958
00:49:05,519 --> 00:49:07,320
are going to have an edge in this game. I'm

959
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,440
gonna play this game under eight and we can get

960
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,400
that minus one ten minus one oh five. But let's

961
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:16,599
let's go minus one ten on Pittsburgh Kansas City under

962
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:18,239
It'll be my part of the parlay.

963
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:22,519
Speaker 4: Okay, I guess I'll cover this game, and then I'll

964
00:49:22,519 --> 00:49:25,159
give my parlay leg since it's we've already.

965
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,360
Speaker 1: Finished finished this game, and then we'll do your parlay

966
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:28,039
lake finished it.

967
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, sure, So I got the two starters, pretty

968
00:49:34,159 --> 00:49:39,239
negligible difference here, maybe two point difference. I got Logo

969
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:43,679
a little bit higher, but I've got Pittsburgh ranked higher

970
00:49:43,679 --> 00:49:46,320
in bullpen and I've got Pittsburgh ranked higher in batting,

971
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:53,199
but just barely. If anything, these teams are pretty locked equal.

972
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:55,679
I would take the underdog plus one and a half

973
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,639
if I bet it, but in this case, I do

974
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:02,880
not think I will get there. Uh my parlay leg.

975
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,119
I'm gonna go to the game.

976
00:50:05,119 --> 00:50:09,039
Speaker 1: We just finished this, hold on, hold on finish. I

977
00:50:09,079 --> 00:50:11,239
want to talk about pirate Royals. Then we'll we'll we'll

978
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:15,519
let you propose the parlay leg game. Sure, I'm I

979
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:19,880
really actually just wanted to agree, uh with a couple

980
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:22,599
of people. One Brian for like in the Under two,

981
00:50:23,039 --> 00:50:26,320
he's uh broke energy. In the chat says Lugo is

982
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:29,760
a beast. It's a very accurate comment that this dude

983
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:33,039
has been doing it for years now, and he's someone

984
00:50:33,039 --> 00:50:36,599
that I think doesn't get even a shred of the

985
00:50:36,639 --> 00:50:40,960
credit that he deserves for how consistently good he's been.

986
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,400
Brian Leonard, how long has it been now four years?

987
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:48,159
Five years where he's just been subbed for the whip

988
00:50:48,199 --> 00:50:50,920
near like one as a starter. I mean god, if

989
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:52,800
so if a bigger name was doing that, we'd be

990
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:55,239
throwing a parade, we'd have a we'd have another legend

991
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:58,000
spot on the All Star team. And Seth Lugo just

992
00:50:58,079 --> 00:51:03,199
does it in sort of like almost anonymity, like he

993
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:05,079
just he doesn't get any recognition.

994
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 2: And Sean says he's in a contract year with the.

995
00:51:09,039 --> 00:51:12,559
Speaker 1: Royals, Like yeah, like he he has been so good,

996
00:51:13,159 --> 00:51:16,880
so consistent that you you throw an under and Lugo

997
00:51:17,039 --> 00:51:19,440
out there, and then especially with two teams that really

998
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,480
struggle to hit the ball and a team like the

999
00:51:22,559 --> 00:51:25,679
Royals that struggles to hit left handed pitching, I'm with you, Brian.

1000
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 2: I think you found a very good parlay Leake here.

1001
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:30,039
Speaker 1: It's probably if I had a strong opinion on a

1002
00:51:30,039 --> 00:51:32,599
total in this on this slate, it would probably be

1003
00:51:32,679 --> 00:51:33,039
this one.

1004
00:51:33,119 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 2: So I'm just here to sign off on that parlay

1005
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:36,320
La go ahead.

1006
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,079
Speaker 3: Yeah at home this year two point four two e

1007
00:51:39,159 --> 00:51:41,719
r A one point one to nine whip. He's pitched

1008
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,559
ten seasons in Major League Baseball with an e r

1009
00:51:44,639 --> 00:51:47,559
a A three point three zero, and yet he's never

1010
00:51:47,599 --> 00:51:50,599
talked about because he's not a strikeout pitcher. Uh, this

1011
00:51:50,679 --> 00:51:52,199
is These are the kind of guys who make money

1012
00:51:52,199 --> 00:51:55,280
on this, do you. Most people think he's just a journeyman.

1013
00:51:55,679 --> 00:51:58,639
He's an excellent pitcher and he's pitching a good pitcher's park.

1014
00:51:59,679 --> 00:52:01,480
He's not gonna blow anybody away with the stuff, no

1015
00:52:01,519 --> 00:52:04,719
doubt about it. But he's he's got like nine different pitches.

1016
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:08,039
I mean, he's just a while. He veteran three point

1017
00:52:08,079 --> 00:52:11,480
three oh ERA in ten years, and nobody thinks of

1018
00:52:11,559 --> 00:52:14,280
him as un e lead arm. Yeah. I think we

1019
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:16,360
got a lot of good advantage in this one.

1020
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,599
Speaker 4: He goes quite deep in his games too. I mean,

1021
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:22,000
if you see a seventeen and a half over under,

1022
00:52:22,679 --> 00:52:25,119
chances are he's gonna be the over. He's gonna finish

1023
00:52:25,119 --> 00:52:27,960
six innings in most in most situations.

1024
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:30,920
Speaker 1: You know what's funny, ge Hurts got a running bit

1025
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,800
in the chat where like he you know, he talks

1026
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:36,719
about schemes looking for houses in Detroit, and I think

1027
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:38,599
I forget who he was talking about the other day,

1028
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:39,519
he just.

1029
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:40,199
Speaker 2: Brought up Lugo.

1030
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,159
Speaker 1: Lugo is a guy could totally see the Tigers going

1031
00:52:43,159 --> 00:52:43,719
and getting them.

1032
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 2: He's like a J.

1033
00:52:45,119 --> 00:52:47,920
Speaker 1: Hinch would probably give up a child to get seth

1034
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,480
Lugo on his staff. Like he is just like the

1035
00:52:50,559 --> 00:52:53,960
type of guy that that that Hinch would love. Because

1036
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,400
of what you were saying. He goes, he works deep,

1037
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:59,280
He's got all sorts of pitches. He he he lives

1038
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,400
under the radar. I could totally see that.

1039
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:02,599
Speaker 2: Like that would.

1040
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:05,800
Speaker 4: Another guy that Mets got rid of.

1041
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:09,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's a little bit different in a scenario,

1042
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:13,079
but yeah, you're right about that. He is another another

1043
00:53:13,119 --> 00:53:15,599
guy that comes from listen though, when you've got to

1044
00:53:15,599 --> 00:53:17,199
pay it, when you've got the money the Mets do

1045
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:19,440
and stuff. If you can't keep everyone, and you're not

1046
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,079
gonna be able to keep the fringe guys a lot

1047
00:53:21,079 --> 00:53:23,719
of times because you're always forced by the fans to

1048
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:26,360
go out and get the next best thing or get

1049
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:30,199
someone better. Duffel Cole says secondary college alum logo. Yeah,

1050
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:33,800
love to see. I we house so we're a host

1051
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:37,920
family for summer league college baseball kids.

1052
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 2: My fiance's parents have been doing it for years.

1053
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:43,079
Speaker 1: We have a team here in local and it's a

1054
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:45,840
there's a couple D one and D two players, but

1055
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:48,920
there are a lot of D three guys that that play.

1056
00:53:49,039 --> 00:53:51,800
So yeah, it's always cool to see. I'll tell them,

1057
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:55,800
I'm like, listen like it happens. Tim Lacashtro from Ithaca,

1058
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:58,119
New York, he's he was a big leaguer. Like every

1059
00:53:58,159 --> 00:53:59,719
once in a while you get a D three guy

1060
00:54:00,079 --> 00:54:02,280
that breaks through and gets the big league. So yes,

1061
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:06,199
awesome to see Seth Lugo, a D three college baseball

1062
00:54:06,199 --> 00:54:09,599
player get there. Mason Miller is one that comes to mind.

1063
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:12,199
He was in a Division III guy and he's in

1064
00:54:12,199 --> 00:54:15,559
the bigs now. So anyway, let's continue on t TV.

1065
00:54:15,639 --> 00:54:18,119
Speaker 2: Give us a game. What are we talking about here

1066
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:20,000
and tell us what your parlay leg is.

1067
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,159
Speaker 4: Well, first, my parlay leg is a game we already covered.

1068
00:54:23,199 --> 00:54:25,199
I'm gonna go with the Cubs on the money line.

1069
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:29,199
I saw it at minus one thirty six. I don't

1070
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:31,519
know what Brian's seeing it at now, but before the

1071
00:54:31,559 --> 00:54:33,000
show it was one thirty six.

1072
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:36,039
Speaker 2: I think it's low. I think the twins just took money,

1073
00:54:36,039 --> 00:54:38,000
which is mind blowing to me. Yeah, I'm pretty sure

1074
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:38,519
they just did.

1075
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 3: Wow, you can get as good as one twenty five,

1076
00:54:43,039 --> 00:54:47,119
but I would say he probably on twenty seven total

1077
00:54:47,159 --> 00:54:47,679
of nine.

1078
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:51,440
Speaker 4: Okay, so I'll take that. If you're gonna let me

1079
00:54:51,519 --> 00:54:53,599
propose a game to do right now, there is one

1080
00:54:53,599 --> 00:54:55,119
I'd like to get your guys thoughts on.

1081
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:57,679
Speaker 2: If all right, fire away? What do we got? Okay?

1082
00:54:58,559 --> 00:55:02,159
Speaker 4: Guardians Astro is an interesting game to me because I

1083
00:55:02,199 --> 00:55:05,760
don't know much about this cante O guy, but I

1084
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,880
do know Hunter Brown. He's ranked number six in my rankings.

1085
00:55:10,039 --> 00:55:13,159
And we mentioned on the show yesterday. Brian and I

1086
00:55:13,199 --> 00:55:15,880
both said, are I think all three of us agreed?

1087
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 3: Man.

1088
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:19,760
Speaker 4: The Astros were fat and sassy, as as Wager Talks

1089
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:23,119
co founder Marco would say. And yeah, they laid an

1090
00:55:23,119 --> 00:55:28,559
egg as kind of expected. They came off just destroying

1091
00:55:28,559 --> 00:55:31,880
the Dodgers and then and then came back home and

1092
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:37,760
laid an egg. So the gardens Guardians obviously are an

1093
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:43,320
inferior team, and today Hunter Brown is one of He's

1094
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:46,639
a top ten MLB pitcher by anybody's standard. I have

1095
00:55:46,679 --> 00:55:50,519
him ranked number six. So again, the Astros should go

1096
00:55:50,519 --> 00:55:54,199
in and absolutely crush this team. But my numbers say

1097
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:56,079
this Canto guy is pretty good, but I don't know

1098
00:55:56,119 --> 00:56:00,320
anything about him. So I haven't played this yet, but

1099
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,679
I would love to take the Astros, but I haven't

1100
00:56:03,679 --> 00:56:04,079
done it yet.

1101
00:56:04,119 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 3: What do you think, Brian Astros with Brown about a

1102
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:10,199
one ninety five favorite right now a line of seven. Yes,

1103
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:14,079
you came out and you were emphatic that you thought

1104
00:56:14,159 --> 00:56:17,000
this was a letdown spot for Houston. I thought it

1105
00:56:17,039 --> 00:56:19,400
was a let down spot for their bats. I was.

1106
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:21,480
I didn't agree it was a let down spot for

1107
00:56:21,519 --> 00:56:24,760
the starter, and the starter just tired in the fifth inning.

1108
00:56:25,079 --> 00:56:27,159
Four rangs of shutout baseball. Then he got hit in

1109
00:56:27,159 --> 00:56:31,599
the fifth Join Dentillo, if you remember he's he's the

1110
00:56:31,639 --> 00:56:36,199
one that they brought back up when Arties got caught

1111
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:39,039
with the gambling situation, so it was a last minute thing.

1112
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:43,280
Kentillo came up from the miners and he was with

1113
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:47,000
the team last year. Last year didn't do as well

1114
00:56:47,159 --> 00:56:49,880
four point eight nine ERA one point two nine whip

1115
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:52,480
this year three point four to one e r A

1116
00:56:52,679 --> 00:56:56,280
one point three to nine whip. He's a lefty and

1117
00:56:56,320 --> 00:56:59,360
he's a big strikeout guy. He's in the ninety eight

1118
00:56:59,599 --> 00:57:03,320
percent is an extension ball gets right on you. Strikeout

1119
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:07,280
percentage of the ninetieth percentile with rate and seventy fourth percentile,

1120
00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:11,599
So you need to be prepared for him because he's

1121
00:57:11,599 --> 00:57:13,559
got the ability to throw that ball right past you.

1122
00:57:14,719 --> 00:57:19,440
It's not dominant, it's only ninety one point seven percent

1123
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:22,760
were league average for a left handed starter is ninety

1124
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:26,360
three point two. But because of his extension, it gets

1125
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:30,119
on you really fast, and he can pile up some strikeouts.

1126
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:33,239
In fact, in seventy point one innings in the majors,

1127
00:57:33,239 --> 00:57:36,039
he's got eighty five strikeouts. So he's a guy that

1128
00:57:36,159 --> 00:57:37,519
can't keep you in the game if you're one of

1129
00:57:37,559 --> 00:57:40,559
those strikeout guys that he likes. That problem is he

1130
00:57:40,559 --> 00:57:43,199
can't get any chases. He's in the first percentile and

1131
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:46,320
chase right eighth percent isle and walk rate seventeenth and

1132
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:50,320
hard hit percentage right now, his walk right now, granted

1133
00:57:50,559 --> 00:57:53,960
it's only twenty two excuse me, thirty one innings, but

1134
00:57:54,039 --> 00:57:57,079
he's got a twelve point three walk rate, so a

1135
00:57:57,079 --> 00:57:59,760
lot of strikeouts, a lot of walks with him on

1136
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:04,920
the and Hunter Brown here for the Astros obviously fantastic

1137
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:08,199
one point eight two e RA two point eight one

1138
00:58:08,239 --> 00:58:12,800
expected zero point nine one nine zero whip. Everything is

1139
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:16,280
in the red. He's a great pitcher. Let's see how

1140
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,440
he does at home compared to on the road. At

1141
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:23,360
home one point one e RA zero point seven to

1142
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:27,199
six whip and he's playing a team that had gotten

1143
00:58:27,239 --> 00:58:29,320
shut out I believe two at the last three games

1144
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:32,239
and four first four innings yesterday. I expect him to

1145
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:35,639
have a really good day in this game against Cleveland

1146
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:40,119
last time out, so he played the Rockies and at

1147
00:58:40,159 --> 00:58:43,559
home six innings, two earned runs. In fact, he's gone

1148
00:58:43,639 --> 00:58:48,760
now one two, three, four, five six seven straight starts

1149
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:52,000
allowing two or less earned runs in a game. I

1150
00:58:52,039 --> 00:58:54,960
think the Cleveland offense is going to struggle once again today.

1151
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,559
If you're looking to play the side, I much prefer

1152
00:58:59,639 --> 00:59:02,599
Brown over at Canteo. I do like Contio, but I

1153
00:59:02,639 --> 00:59:04,360
don't think this is a very good matchup for him,

1154
00:59:05,079 --> 00:59:08,760
And yeah, unfortunately, as a Guardians fan, I think our

1155
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:09,639
winning streak is over.

1156
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 1: Listen, So I'll talk about Cantillo for a minute. I've

1157
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:18,880
watched a bunch of him over the last month or

1158
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:23,239
so they've so he is someone like he's He was

1159
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:25,559
down at Triple A for a month, like long before

1160
00:59:25,599 --> 00:59:28,719
the Ortiz thing happened. The Guardian sent him back to

1161
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:30,599
Triple A because they wanted to stretch him out to

1162
00:59:30,599 --> 00:59:33,280
be a starter. So that was that was like something

1163
00:59:33,280 --> 00:59:35,280
that was in the works, like I think he Yeah,

1164
00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:38,400
early June he went back down and I was watching

1165
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:41,480
a Columbus Clippers broadcast and they basically said, yeah, the

1166
00:59:41,559 --> 00:59:43,559
goal is to have him build up.

1167
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 2: We want him to be starting games now.

1168
00:59:47,119 --> 00:59:49,639
Speaker 1: He hasn't gone particularly deep, but that's all probably been

1169
00:59:49,679 --> 00:59:51,840
part of the plan as he builds his arm up

1170
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:55,920
to get starters innings. In June at Triple A one

1171
00:59:56,159 --> 00:59:58,519
a one to sixty seven batting average against a zero

1172
00:59:58,599 --> 00:59:59,599
point nine to four whip.

1173
00:59:59,639 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 2: He was very, very very good.

1174
01:00:01,519 --> 01:00:03,639
Speaker 1: I'm with you, Brian, I don't I can't see him

1175
01:00:03,639 --> 01:00:07,320
going particularly deep here in his first start at the

1176
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:10,719
big league level since being called up three and a

1177
01:00:10,760 --> 01:00:13,360
third against the Cubs, but he was really good. They

1178
01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:16,159
didn't do anything against him a couple hits, a couple walks,

1179
01:00:16,199 --> 01:00:19,599
but five strikeouts and he he was, you know, no

1180
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:23,400
runs through three and a third. I kind of like

1181
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:25,360
the Guardians here in the in the respect, I think

1182
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:28,000
Canteo keeps him in this game for the first four

1183
01:00:28,079 --> 01:00:30,440
or five innings and then it's like, yeah, you have

1184
01:00:30,519 --> 01:00:33,360
to figure out what happens with the bullpens. But like

1185
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:35,320
if you were if you're talking about taking a flyer

1186
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:37,480
on a team with plus money or maybe even a

1187
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:39,760
plus one and a half, I wouldn't be surprised if

1188
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:43,639
if Cantio one one or two times through is very

1189
01:00:43,719 --> 01:00:48,119
very tough on this Astros lineup. So I don't think

1190
01:00:48,119 --> 01:00:51,079
it's just a no brainer bet on the Astros. Cantio's

1191
01:00:51,079 --> 01:00:53,960
pretty good, and I could see him holding down holding

1192
01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:57,960
down this Astros lineup at least once through the order.

1193
01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:01,440
All right, I am gonna throw game out here and

1194
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:03,039
then we're going to talk about this one, and it

1195
01:01:03,079 --> 01:01:05,800
will be my parlay leg. I'll Alexy, I'll just give

1196
01:01:05,840 --> 01:01:08,039
out the leg and then I will let you guys

1197
01:01:08,239 --> 01:01:10,159
sort of, you know, talk about the game, if you

1198
01:01:10,159 --> 01:01:11,199
want to talk about the game.

1199
01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:14,880
Speaker 2: I do think it's probably over for the Braves.

1200
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:17,239
Speaker 1: But I think if there was ever a chance where

1201
01:01:17,239 --> 01:01:19,320
they were gonna sort of put their foot in the

1202
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:23,880
ground and make a move right here, Brian Leonard, it

1203
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:27,679
would be this series out against an A's team that's

1204
01:01:27,719 --> 01:01:30,639
been worse at home, that has no home field advantage.

1205
01:01:30,800 --> 01:01:32,480
You know, Diddy or Fuentis is a guy that I

1206
01:01:32,519 --> 01:01:35,400
criticized this Braves team for calling him up when they did,

1207
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:37,679
but they've kind of left him up here now, and

1208
01:01:37,679 --> 01:01:41,800
you've got to think, like, if they didn't believe in him,

1209
01:01:42,199 --> 01:01:43,679
there's no way he would still be at the big

1210
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:46,639
league level. They're gonna give him another shot against the A's.

1211
01:01:46,920 --> 01:01:50,079
He's got very good stuff, so you have to think

1212
01:01:50,079 --> 01:01:53,119
that maybe they think he's starting to unlock something and

1213
01:01:53,559 --> 01:01:57,000
he could be good at the big league level. I

1214
01:01:57,360 --> 01:01:59,559
don't buy that right now, but I do think this

1215
01:01:59,599 --> 01:02:02,360
could be an okay matchup for him and A's lineup

1216
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:05,599
that you know is a lot of guys that could

1217
01:02:05,679 --> 01:02:08,880
still be aviators right now, right like it's it's not

1218
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:11,840
you know, there's some really superstars in that lineup or

1219
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:14,079
guys that can be like a Jacob Wilson. You know,

1220
01:02:14,119 --> 01:02:17,199
there's some really guys with tons of upside. But if

1221
01:02:17,239 --> 01:02:20,239
the A's were a more sort of confident organization, a

1222
01:02:20,239 --> 01:02:22,039
lot of those guys might still be at Triple A.

1223
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:25,519
So I think it's a reasonable matchup for Fuentes, and

1224
01:02:25,559 --> 01:02:28,239
it's also I think a reasonable matchup for the Braves.

1225
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:31,679
Springs is not a guy that I've been super high on.

1226
01:02:31,719 --> 01:02:35,159
I think he's you know, it's doable for them to

1227
01:02:35,199 --> 01:02:38,159
sort of generate some offense, and it just feels like

1228
01:02:38,159 --> 01:02:41,039
a spot here where you know, the Braves might might

1229
01:02:41,119 --> 01:02:44,320
make one last push in this series, and hey, who knows.

1230
01:02:44,519 --> 01:02:46,400
If they can have a good series here and get

1231
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:49,119
some momentum going into the break, it could change things.

1232
01:02:49,159 --> 01:02:51,559
My gut says they're still sellers at the trade deadline,

1233
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:54,239
but they come into play eight and a half games

1234
01:02:54,239 --> 01:02:55,119
out of the wild Card.

1235
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 2: This is a very winnable series for them, in my opinion.

1236
01:03:00,199 --> 01:03:03,760
Speaker 1: I think the the value has has I think that

1237
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:06,480
the market has moved so far one way on the

1238
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:09,199
Braves now that there's actually some value in backing them.

1239
01:03:09,199 --> 01:03:11,559
So that'll be my parlay leg I like the Braves tonight.

1240
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:14,920
What's the line there? Minus one five, minus one ten?

1241
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:19,239
Speaker 3: Uh, Actually it's about probably minus one fifteen right now.

1242
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:23,280
Speaker 1: Fine, Yeah, that's that's not surprising to me that the

1243
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:26,719
Braves would take a little bit of money. I feel

1244
01:03:26,719 --> 01:03:29,880
like you're gonna have some sharp based the sharp sort

1245
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:32,519
of syndicates that that move lines and stuff. I feel

1246
01:03:32,559 --> 01:03:34,360
like are going to like start buying the Braves on

1247
01:03:34,360 --> 01:03:37,280
a regular basis, just from a value standpoint, if they're

1248
01:03:37,320 --> 01:03:39,960
going to open up like even money against the A's.

1249
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:42,079
Speaker 2: So Braves is my parlay leg.

1250
01:03:42,119 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 1: Do you do either of you guys have anything to

1251
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:45,960
add to A to A's Braves.

1252
01:03:46,239 --> 01:03:54,079
Speaker 3: Welling Springs was pitching well last time out against Stampa

1253
01:03:54,119 --> 01:03:57,440
Bay five and a third, uh two. Urning around, He's

1254
01:03:57,480 --> 01:04:00,760
been pretty good last four starts. He's given up two

1255
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:03,800
or less earned runs, but he played the Royals, played

1256
01:04:03,800 --> 01:04:06,960
the Guardians, played the Tigers, and the Blue Jays. Last

1257
01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:13,119
two a little bit tougher, but yeah, he's last two years.

1258
01:04:13,159 --> 01:04:15,679
Keep in mind in twenty twenty three, this is the

1259
01:04:15,679 --> 01:04:17,719
guy who's been injured a lot. In twenty twenty three.

1260
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:21,000
He only had sixteen innings last year, thirty three innings.

1261
01:04:21,039 --> 01:04:23,159
It's already up at the ninety seven innings right now.

1262
01:04:24,119 --> 01:04:26,559
I think he's going to hit a wall. He may

1263
01:04:26,599 --> 01:04:29,320
hit it any time now. It would not surprise me

1264
01:04:29,559 --> 01:04:34,280
if the A's start cutting back on his innings. He's

1265
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:37,320
in a fastball velocity seventh percentile, ground ball right eighth

1266
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:41,039
percentile being a flyball pitcher in Oakland or excuse me.

1267
01:04:41,119 --> 01:04:43,679
A Sacramento has not really turned out to be a

1268
01:04:43,719 --> 01:04:45,760
problem yet, but I think it will be as the

1269
01:04:45,760 --> 01:04:49,320
season goes on and he gets a little bit more tired. Yeah,

1270
01:04:49,360 --> 01:04:54,239
I would agree with Atlanta. I don't like Atlanta going forward,

1271
01:04:54,440 --> 01:04:56,000
but I think there's a little bit of value on

1272
01:04:56,039 --> 01:04:56,519
them tonight.

1273
01:04:57,840 --> 01:05:00,920
Speaker 4: Guys, please leave comments on the re play and like

1274
01:05:01,000 --> 01:05:03,880
the replay for us and check our pages for five

1275
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:06,199
dollars Tuesday. That's all I have to say about this game.

1276
01:05:08,440 --> 01:05:11,559
Speaker 1: Love Steve Duke making my job easier. He typed out

1277
01:05:11,559 --> 01:05:14,360
the parlay for us, so it's right there on your

1278
01:05:14,519 --> 01:05:18,559
screen if you want to read it quickly. But I will, Yeah,

1279
01:05:18,599 --> 01:05:20,480
I'll echo Tokyo Brandon sentiment.

1280
01:05:20,519 --> 01:05:21,800
Speaker 2: It is five dollars Tuesday.

1281
01:05:22,039 --> 01:05:26,079
Speaker 1: And I didn't promo anything at the end of yesterday's show,

1282
01:05:27,119 --> 01:05:27,920
but it was a Monday.

1283
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:29,639
Speaker 2: We don't need to force that down your throat on

1284
01:05:29,639 --> 01:05:29,960
a Monday.

1285
01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 1: But on Tuesday, I'll lose my job if I don't

1286
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:35,119
tell you that it's five dollars Tuesday site wide at

1287
01:05:35,159 --> 01:05:38,039
wager Talk that everyone's got plays up, So check that out.

1288
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:43,079
The parlay is as follows, and I will full disclosure.

1289
01:05:43,320 --> 01:05:45,400
I was going to use the Cubs, but Tokyo brand

1290
01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:47,400
and beat me to it, which I'm glad because I

1291
01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:50,599
know I'm glad you did because I didn't know which

1292
01:05:50,599 --> 01:05:53,320
one I wanted to use. I was between a couple,

1293
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:56,639
and you made my decision much easier. So we've got Tokyo,

1294
01:05:56,719 --> 01:06:00,360
Brandon Cubs money line, I'm on the Braves money line,

1295
01:06:00,440 --> 01:06:02,280
and Brian Leonard Pirates.

1296
01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:03,039
Speaker 2: Royals under eight.

1297
01:06:04,519 --> 01:06:07,599
Speaker 1: This is a plus five forty two parlay, and I'm

1298
01:06:07,719 --> 01:06:10,320
feeling good about this one. I really feel like we've

1299
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:12,800
got one here. Within the next day or two, we're

1300
01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:16,119
gonna hit one of these. Get our unit count back up.

1301
01:06:16,199 --> 01:06:19,719
Still up nine dollars and ninety cents for every dollar

1302
01:06:19,719 --> 01:06:21,599
that you've put on the parlays if you're playing along.

1303
01:06:21,679 --> 01:06:23,239
But we've been on a little bit of a losing

1304
01:06:23,280 --> 01:06:25,639
street with the parlays. We got to change that here.

1305
01:06:25,719 --> 01:06:29,280
So without further ado, one more time, Cubs money line,

1306
01:06:29,679 --> 01:06:33,840
Raise money Line, pirates Royals under eight that's a winner.

1307
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:37,119
That's plus five forty two odds on the parlay. It's

1308
01:06:37,159 --> 01:06:39,719
five dollars. Tuesday at wager Talk, everyone's got plays up

1309
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:42,000
for five bucks. So check us out on the site

1310
01:06:42,039 --> 01:06:46,079
and appreciate you guys in the chat. We've regularly regularly

1311
01:06:46,079 --> 01:06:49,960
been getting over eleven hundred viewers on Twitter and other

1312
01:06:50,039 --> 01:06:53,360
live viewers on YouTube, so we very very much appreciate

1313
01:06:53,400 --> 01:06:53,840
you guys.

1314
01:06:54,199 --> 01:06:56,840
Speaker 2: Give us a give us a subscribe, drop a comment.

1315
01:06:56,880 --> 01:06:58,760
Speaker 1: We try to answer all of them, and we'll see

1316
01:06:58,760 --> 01:07:02,159
you guys tomorrow morning, Wednesday, nine am for another episode.

1317
01:07:02,559 --> 01:07:04,199
Speaker 2: Good luck today, We'll see you guys tomorrow