WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.480 --> 00:00:03.080 Hey everyone, If you're listening to this, you are not 2 00:00:03.279 --> 00:00:05.719 a supporter of the Team House. If you'd like to 3 00:00:05.759 --> 00:00:10.000 get ad free episodes, both video and audio, please go 4 00:00:10.039 --> 00:00:14.240 to our patreon Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. You 5 00:00:14.279 --> 00:00:17.000 get them. You get the episodes early and add free. 6 00:00:17.239 --> 00:00:19.160 You can also ask the guys questions, and if you're 7 00:00:19.199 --> 00:00:22.519 a Teamhouse fan, you can also watch our Team House 8 00:00:22.559 --> 00:00:26.559 episodes as we record them live. So it really helps 9 00:00:26.559 --> 00:00:29.440 the show. We couldn't be anywhere without our Patreon supporters, 10 00:00:29.480 --> 00:00:33.880 so we'd love for you to consider subscribing. It's patreon 11 00:00:34.000 --> 00:00:36.840 dot com slash the Teamhouse, and that link is in 12 00:00:36.920 --> 00:00:39.759 the description of the show notes down below. Thanks guys. Enjoy. 13 00:00:40.359 --> 00:00:43.399 Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. 14 00:00:43.399 --> 00:00:45.759 We're here with the whole crew, Mick Moulroy, Andy Milburn, 15 00:00:45.840 --> 00:00:50.960 Jonathan Hackett, and Mark Polymereopolis. Happy forth to everybody who 16 00:00:51.039 --> 00:00:54.479 just passed July fifth. I hope everybody had a safe holiday. 17 00:00:54.840 --> 00:00:57.520 Ate some hot dogs, didn't blow your hands off with fireworks. 18 00:00:58.880 --> 00:01:01.240 It was fun. It was very hot here in New York, 19 00:01:01.280 --> 00:01:04.000 but it was still a good time, all right, boys, 20 00:01:04.000 --> 00:01:06.400 A lot happening as usual. I think we should kick 21 00:01:06.400 --> 00:01:09.719 off today with talking about Ukraine. We have seen over 22 00:01:09.719 --> 00:01:13.439 the last probably a couple of months now, Ukraine hitting 23 00:01:13.480 --> 00:01:18.959 deep inside Russia, Russia's fuel supply being severely limited, where 24 00:01:19.000 --> 00:01:22.400 it is that they're buying fuel from India to try 25 00:01:22.400 --> 00:01:24.640 and keep up with the man. I did see a 26 00:01:24.680 --> 00:01:26.719 couple of things where like we really won't see a 27 00:01:26.760 --> 00:01:30.000 big difference until like it hits like their lubricitts and stuff, 28 00:01:30.000 --> 00:01:32.400 and like their war machine gets hit a little bit more. 29 00:01:33.680 --> 00:01:37.480 Russia also did come out the other day and claim 30 00:01:37.560 --> 00:01:42.319 that they took over a town in uh, you know, 31 00:01:42.519 --> 00:01:46.400 Dombas area, which then Ukraine sent down in a salt 32 00:01:46.439 --> 00:01:50.680 force and basically took it back. So it's interesting what's 33 00:01:50.680 --> 00:01:55.000 going on they see Russia seems to be flailing. Yeah, 34 00:01:55.040 --> 00:01:58.799 what are you guys tracking here? Let's go with Mark 35 00:01:58.840 --> 00:02:01.519 poly Moreopolis first. Greeks first, Greeks he first. 36 00:02:02.280 --> 00:02:05.159 Oh, I like that Greeks first. This is like a 37 00:02:05.239 --> 00:02:08.719 Mick Molroy is but throwing in the Greeks. By the way, 38 00:02:08.759 --> 00:02:10.560 I just have to one shout out to Mick. I've 39 00:02:10.560 --> 00:02:12.400 been I don't have it with me. I've been reading 40 00:02:12.400 --> 00:02:16.400 that all the Stoicism books, very inspiring and I started 41 00:02:16.400 --> 00:02:18.159 giving them to all my friends and I have just 42 00:02:18.280 --> 00:02:19.800 on a serious note, I have a friend who's going 43 00:02:19.840 --> 00:02:22.719 to not government related, is going through some really tough times, 44 00:02:22.759 --> 00:02:24.919 and I gave him that book. You know, the obstacle 45 00:02:24.960 --> 00:02:26.840 is the way it really helped them. So good stuff. 46 00:02:30.520 --> 00:02:35.360 Yeah, most of the stoics know me. So this is 47 00:02:35.639 --> 00:02:37.680 a book by a friend of mine. Two friend of 48 00:02:37.680 --> 00:02:40.919 mine just came out, one that runs the earliest foundation 49 00:02:41.400 --> 00:02:45.879 justin Seed and another one who's a professor at Oxford. Yeah, 50 00:02:46.520 --> 00:02:51.560 we need these, we need them. 51 00:02:51.759 --> 00:02:54.000 No, I like it. I gave it Look for the 52 00:02:54.039 --> 00:02:58.120 Stoics Ukraine so interesting in a couple of different ways. 53 00:02:58.319 --> 00:03:01.240 And I'm gonna throw a little curveball in this because 54 00:03:01.280 --> 00:03:03.280 the thing that I've been mokes focused on, which is 55 00:03:03.319 --> 00:03:05.520 really weird. So first of all, there's certainly events on 56 00:03:05.560 --> 00:03:09.080 the ground, and I think maybe you guys can cover 57 00:03:09.159 --> 00:03:11.919 them in great more greater detail. What is interesting to 58 00:03:11.960 --> 00:03:14.639 me is politically how things have changed in the United States. 59 00:03:14.719 --> 00:03:18.560 Laura Lumer just put out a post where she said 60 00:03:18.599 --> 00:03:21.759 I am now pro Ukraine. She loves Zelensky and she's 61 00:03:21.879 --> 00:03:25.960 railing against others in the MAGA world who are who 62 00:03:26.039 --> 00:03:29.599 She is obviously claiming to be perhaps correctly pro prutent 63 00:03:29.680 --> 00:03:32.599 pro Russia. This is the Tucker Carlson's of the world, 64 00:03:32.639 --> 00:03:36.759 Megan Kelly and others, And it's really interesting to see 65 00:03:36.759 --> 00:03:40.120 and I think this actually does, this actually does have 66 00:03:40.240 --> 00:03:44.479 some effects here in the United States because these individuals 67 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:49.000 on the right, whether they're podcasters or influencers, certainly kind 68 00:03:49.000 --> 00:03:51.240 of move the way the MAGA movement in the Republican 69 00:03:51.280 --> 00:03:53.599 Party goes sometimes. And Laura Lumer has the ear of 70 00:03:53.599 --> 00:03:55.560 the President of the United States, there's no doubt on that. 71 00:03:56.080 --> 00:03:58.360 So she now is a huge supporter of Ukraine. Now 72 00:03:58.400 --> 00:04:00.080 you can kind of, you know, throw it in your 73 00:04:00.080 --> 00:04:02.520 mouth and kind of because she's kind of she has 74 00:04:02.520 --> 00:04:06.159 her own issues, massive ones. But it's really interesting and 75 00:04:06.199 --> 00:04:08.719 so you know, how does this now translate when to 76 00:04:08.719 --> 00:04:11.159 get to the next part. There are serious, you know, 77 00:04:11.240 --> 00:04:14.039 issues ahead in terms of what the US willer will 78 00:04:14.039 --> 00:04:16.879 not provide. I think the Ukrainians just asked us if 79 00:04:16.920 --> 00:04:22.879 they can co produce patriots. So there's some things coming 80 00:04:22.959 --> 00:04:25.800 down the pike, you know, in which there will be 81 00:04:25.800 --> 00:04:28.480 some US policy decisions. But the thing I'm really looking 82 00:04:28.519 --> 00:04:31.199 at d is is this really strange divide in the 83 00:04:31.240 --> 00:04:33.000 MAGA movement over Ukraine. 84 00:04:35.000 --> 00:04:37.120 Did she give any kind of reasoning why now she's 85 00:04:37.160 --> 00:04:40.839 a pro Ukrainian or no. It was just like I 86 00:04:40.879 --> 00:04:41.399 will come up. 87 00:04:41.360 --> 00:04:45.199 Today because it looks like they're going to potentially turn 88 00:04:45.240 --> 00:04:48.800 the tides. Winning tends to win over people more than 89 00:04:49.160 --> 00:04:53.040 even logic. Sometimes I don't know who you're talking about necessarily, 90 00:04:53.079 --> 00:04:55.639 but you know, if we get more people on board, 91 00:04:56.920 --> 00:04:59.920 even if it's for the right wrong in different reasons, 92 00:05:00.079 --> 00:05:02.680 I'm all for let's actually help with Ukraine witness. 93 00:05:05.240 --> 00:05:08.079 Yeah, the Maga wright have done a flip, not just 94 00:05:08.120 --> 00:05:09.560 on Ukraine but on Israel. 95 00:05:10.279 --> 00:05:12.560 You know, Israel could do no wrong. 96 00:05:12.920 --> 00:05:19.720 And now Israel is the country I'm paraphrasing magaworld right here, 97 00:05:19.839 --> 00:05:23.040 is the country that is leading us down into the 98 00:05:23.160 --> 00:05:33.079 dark abyss and has been feeding the president lies. And 99 00:05:33.120 --> 00:05:38.519 it's it's interesting once the once that critical momentum starts, 100 00:05:39.279 --> 00:05:41.959 you know, it's difficult to identify the turning point in 101 00:05:41.959 --> 00:05:46.519 the Ukraine or in Israel, but it goes strongly the 102 00:05:46.600 --> 00:05:48.240 other way suddenly, doesn't it. 103 00:05:49.839 --> 00:05:52.959 So you I mean Ukraine Senator McCain used to say, 104 00:05:53.120 --> 00:05:57.240 was a Ukraine. Russia was a gas station with an army, 105 00:05:57.920 --> 00:06:00.879 and I think Ukraine said, great, take out the army 106 00:06:00.920 --> 00:06:03.279 and the gas nation, right, So that's what's happening right now. 107 00:06:03.439 --> 00:06:09.120 These long range strikes by Ukraine into areas, whether they're 108 00:06:09.120 --> 00:06:16.920 logistical hubs, refinery, storage facilities, are now more deeper and 109 00:06:17.040 --> 00:06:21.480 more effective than they were before. Ukraine's mass producing drones 110 00:06:22.040 --> 00:06:25.839 every month, they produce more, every year, they'll produce more. 111 00:06:26.399 --> 00:06:31.839 They're seriously challenging. In Crimea, there was fourteen significant strikes 112 00:06:31.839 --> 00:06:33.040 in the last forty eight hours. 113 00:06:33.040 --> 00:06:33.360 There. 114 00:06:34.759 --> 00:06:37.040 We're not seeing an eminent fall in Ukraine. We're not 115 00:06:37.079 --> 00:06:40.639 seeing an imminent, you know, or anywhere close to animinent 116 00:06:40.720 --> 00:06:44.480 withdrawal of Russia. But Ukraine has gone from the back 117 00:06:44.519 --> 00:06:47.199 foot to the front foot, and I think people recognize 118 00:06:47.199 --> 00:06:49.680 it all of a sudden. There's people going, oh, maybe 119 00:06:49.680 --> 00:06:51.839 we should support It's like, you can't support them when 120 00:06:51.879 --> 00:06:54.480 they're you know, teetering on the brink, but you can 121 00:06:54.600 --> 00:06:58.600 now Again. I would have hoped that the U, asked 122 00:06:58.600 --> 00:07:01.639 the leader of the free world, would have been leading 123 00:07:01.680 --> 00:07:03.759 discharge the whole time. But you know, if it takes 124 00:07:04.480 --> 00:07:08.279 some people coming at the end, fine, But that needs 125 00:07:08.319 --> 00:07:12.839 to be translated into direct support the US basically now 126 00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:16.360 just allows them to purchase things through NATO. I think 127 00:07:16.519 --> 00:07:19.759 NATO countries, European countries, countries around the world that are 128 00:07:20.439 --> 00:07:27.439 that want to promote democracy and stability and counter you know, 129 00:07:28.279 --> 00:07:31.759 naked aggression like Russia need to throw in with Ukraine 130 00:07:32.319 --> 00:07:36.279 like now, not when they're on the Virgin winning now, 131 00:07:37.720 --> 00:07:40.879 and this could push President Putin, who's under an incredible 132 00:07:40.920 --> 00:07:44.639 amount of pressure internally. I mean, right now they've got 133 00:07:44.800 --> 00:07:47.680 I think I saw the stat if you're recruited, and 134 00:07:47.680 --> 00:07:51.399 by recruited, I mean basically conscripted into the Russian army, 135 00:07:51.399 --> 00:07:55.680 you got about three week lifespan. Amazing includes includes going 136 00:07:55.680 --> 00:07:58.160 through training, right Apparently on the battlefield now it was 137 00:07:58.160 --> 00:08:00.959 like forty minutes. Yeah, you step foot on a battle 138 00:08:00.959 --> 00:08:05.360 for you're dead for you. So the whole generation of 139 00:08:05.720 --> 00:08:10.360 Russian males are being annihilated. And now it's become almost untenable, 140 00:08:10.560 --> 00:08:14.839 you know, because the fuel shortages. Everything that's going on 141 00:08:14.879 --> 00:08:19.040 in Russia is really putting pressure on Putin. He's gonna do, 142 00:08:19.079 --> 00:08:22.800 of course, what Putin usually does, which is launch at civilians. Right. 143 00:08:22.800 --> 00:08:24.680 We saw in Kiev last week, I think it was 144 00:08:24.720 --> 00:08:28.120 like five hundred drones and almost seventy five missiles Senate 145 00:08:28.360 --> 00:08:32.240 keep but and Andy can tell you spent a lot 146 00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:36.639 of time there. I think that just makes them more resilient, 147 00:08:37.000 --> 00:08:40.240 like there's no way you're going to kill more kids 148 00:08:40.600 --> 00:08:43.960 and they're gonna quit. Like it's the opposite. They're never 149 00:08:43.960 --> 00:08:46.360 gonna quit. And this is only going to firm up 150 00:08:46.399 --> 00:08:51.320 their resolve to ensure that they save their country. So 151 00:08:51.639 --> 00:08:54.879 it's now is the time for the West. And the 152 00:08:54.879 --> 00:08:59.000 supporters of Ukraine include the United States, but more security 153 00:08:59.000 --> 00:09:04.000 assistants direct security assistance into Ukraine with the idea that 154 00:09:04.039 --> 00:09:07.240 it'll force I think putin to the negotiation table on 155 00:09:07.399 --> 00:09:10.960 terms that are more are actually completely aligned with what 156 00:09:11.000 --> 00:09:12.240 the Ukrainians want to see. 157 00:09:12.360 --> 00:09:13.519 Yeah, I mean the war. 158 00:09:14.240 --> 00:09:18.399 It's it's flipped into a strange dual reality, right, So 159 00:09:18.519 --> 00:09:23.600 Russia's grinding out its symbolic prize in the dombas and 160 00:09:23.879 --> 00:09:28.840 the town you're talking about the is constantin I'm mispronouncing it. 161 00:09:29.000 --> 00:09:32.360 I tried. I don't want to pronounce it. 162 00:09:32.399 --> 00:09:37.200 We used to call it constantinivkas so as Constantinople with 163 00:09:37.360 --> 00:09:39.960 Nivka on the end, but that's totally wrong. But anyway, 164 00:09:39.960 --> 00:09:43.639 it's a ship home of the place. But nevertheless, I mean, 165 00:09:43.679 --> 00:09:46.679 I've said that about puck Ross, but the similarity. The 166 00:09:46.720 --> 00:09:51.960 point is, the Russians are grinding it out as they're 167 00:09:52.000 --> 00:09:57.879 taking this territory at at just incredible cost. CSIS estimated 168 00:09:57.919 --> 00:10:01.399 that they're advancing fifty meters a day. They're taking eight 169 00:10:01.519 --> 00:10:04.919 times the casualties said the Ukrainians are, and those figures 170 00:10:04.960 --> 00:10:07.879 come from Russi, you know, so this isn't stuff that 171 00:10:07.919 --> 00:10:13.039 we're making up right, eight times casualties and they've seize this, 172 00:10:13.519 --> 00:10:17.080 you know, after years of trying. They never got pop Ross, 173 00:10:17.080 --> 00:10:21.679 but they've they they may have got Constantinika. The Ukrainians 174 00:10:21.720 --> 00:10:26.399 are challenging that. And some of the videos you've seen 175 00:10:26.559 --> 00:10:31.559 online of Russians waving flags there apparently are AI generated. 176 00:10:31.720 --> 00:10:36.120 So they may not even have taken shithole town, right, 177 00:10:37.600 --> 00:10:39.639 but if they have, it's that great costs they just 178 00:10:39.720 --> 00:10:44.000 can't sustain it. And so they're grinding this out, but 179 00:10:44.480 --> 00:10:51.759 simultaneously they're losing the strategic initiative Ukrainian Ukraine's running. I mean, 180 00:10:52.240 --> 00:10:55.000 it's the most effective deep strike campaign of the war, 181 00:10:55.360 --> 00:10:59.679 you know, to mixed point, I mean, going after cohesively, 182 00:10:59.720 --> 00:11:06.559 going after Russian energy sources, reducing production by estimates of 183 00:11:06.639 --> 00:11:09.919 twenty percent, which is huge, right. Not only that, but 184 00:11:09.960 --> 00:11:13.120 look what they're doing in the Crimea and Crimea has 185 00:11:14.120 --> 00:11:19.960 a tremendous symbolic value to both sides. Although it's probably 186 00:11:20.320 --> 00:11:23.600 a bridge too far for the Ukrainians to win back, 187 00:11:23.799 --> 00:11:26.960 but they've made it untenable. They've dropped the Kerse Bridge, 188 00:11:27.320 --> 00:11:30.759 they've dropped the bridge that I forget the name, that 189 00:11:30.879 --> 00:11:35.919 goes from Crimea to occupied Ukrainian territory, you know, towards 190 00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:39.600 Kerson and they keep dropping them, so the Russians there 191 00:11:39.960 --> 00:11:45.559 are trapped. And then systematically they've taken out the air 192 00:11:45.559 --> 00:11:48.799 defense systems and so now what they're doing you can see, 193 00:11:48.840 --> 00:11:53.120 they've just they're doing these mass drone raids on Russian 194 00:11:53.159 --> 00:11:57.039 infrastructure across Crimera and apparently it's, you know, nothing can 195 00:11:57.080 --> 00:12:01.200 move there. I mean you're looking at they're hitting, they 196 00:12:01.240 --> 00:12:07.039 destroying the roads. So Russia has Crimea, yes, but it's 197 00:12:07.559 --> 00:12:10.320 it's it's kind of a hollow price and it's becoming 198 00:12:10.360 --> 00:12:12.720 a death trap for them, and of course it's you know, 199 00:12:12.759 --> 00:12:15.279 the Ukraine is very clever at this. They know that 200 00:12:15.320 --> 00:12:18.720 Putin will continue to pour forces into Crimea in a 201 00:12:18.799 --> 00:12:24.519 vain attempt to defend it, but they're being attacked asymmetrically 202 00:12:24.559 --> 00:12:25.120 from the air. 203 00:12:25.559 --> 00:12:27.960 And what's the what's the pr value of them actually 204 00:12:28.039 --> 00:12:31.360 dropping the Kirk Bridge, of actually doing it, finally destroying 205 00:12:31.360 --> 00:12:33.080 it if they can. I mean, there's you see a 206 00:12:33.120 --> 00:12:34.759 lot of talk of that. You hear even in town 207 00:12:34.840 --> 00:12:38.440 here in d C. Ukrainian officials saying that this is inevitable, 208 00:12:38.440 --> 00:12:41.279 it's coming, and you could see that that, you know, 209 00:12:41.360 --> 00:12:44.360 the public relations value in doing so would be rather massive. 210 00:12:45.960 --> 00:12:47.919 And then on top of that question for you is 211 00:12:47.960 --> 00:12:51.159 and then what about the kind of the strategic yes 212 00:12:51.799 --> 00:12:54.120 as well, and what would the Russian reprize will be? Sorry, 213 00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:55.240 go ahead, yes. 214 00:12:55.120 --> 00:13:00.360 So on your first part and Putin, uh, I've Putin 215 00:13:00.440 --> 00:13:02.960 has kind of staked his reputation at times on the 216 00:13:03.000 --> 00:13:05.480 Kersh Bridge. He keeps going on and on about it's 217 00:13:05.480 --> 00:13:09.879 the umbilical cord and paraphrasing him that links Crimea to Russia, 218 00:13:10.320 --> 00:13:14.200 et cetera, et cetera. And so, yes, the Ukrainiu has 219 00:13:14.200 --> 00:13:17.080 gone after it. They've made it on and off untenable. 220 00:13:18.960 --> 00:13:23.320 But it's strategically what they've done is they've just isolated 221 00:13:23.360 --> 00:13:28.879 Crimea I mean totally. It's Crimea is now pretty much useless. 222 00:13:29.200 --> 00:13:31.919 I mean, it was used for for a number of reasons. 223 00:13:31.960 --> 00:13:35.320 It was a port. But the Ukrainians have decimated the 224 00:13:35.360 --> 00:13:40.120 Black Sea Fleet through their kind of mosquito fleet navy, 225 00:13:40.240 --> 00:13:43.360 which is ironic that Ukrainians don't have a navy, but 226 00:13:43.440 --> 00:13:46.639 they've done. They've done to the Russians what the Uranians 227 00:13:46.639 --> 00:13:49.960 are doing. The Straits of hor moves, right, only they're 228 00:13:50.039 --> 00:13:55.600 using unmanned they're using missiles, drones, and they're using unmanned 229 00:13:56.440 --> 00:13:57.200 sea vessels. 230 00:13:57.320 --> 00:13:57.519 Right. 231 00:13:58.720 --> 00:14:03.440 So they've they've negated Crimea to the Black Sea fleet. 232 00:14:03.440 --> 00:14:06.679 They've decimated the Black Sea Fleet, and now they prevented 233 00:14:06.720 --> 00:14:09.279 it from being a logistics hub for the Southern Front. 234 00:14:09.519 --> 00:14:17.159 They've prevented it being anything but just a giant missile 235 00:14:17.360 --> 00:14:25.799 and drone and bomb sump. And it's infuriating Putin because 236 00:14:26.120 --> 00:14:28.879 I remember, I mean from twenty fourteen he's banged on 237 00:14:29.000 --> 00:14:32.200 and on about Crimea and now and now it's just 238 00:14:33.279 --> 00:14:38.120 it's a it's this black hole, right, and. 239 00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:41.159 This decision could actually lose in Crimea to do the 240 00:14:41.200 --> 00:14:44.799 full invasion of Ukraine, which likely he would have kept Crimea. 241 00:14:45.320 --> 00:14:48.960 Yeah, exactly, that as a viable and the Black Sea 242 00:14:49.039 --> 00:14:49.799 Fleet and everything. 243 00:14:49.879 --> 00:14:51.200 Yeah, you're right, Ye, a. 244 00:14:51.279 --> 00:14:56.080 Worry of reprisals because this means so much to putin Well, yeah, 245 00:14:56.600 --> 00:14:58.600 they dropped the bridge. Is he going to actually go 246 00:14:58.840 --> 00:15:01.200 even crazier than he had has done so in terms 247 00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:03.039 of the tax on civilian targets, et cetera. 248 00:15:04.399 --> 00:15:08.399 Yeah, I mean, but I think to your point, Mark, 249 00:15:08.480 --> 00:15:10.399 I think Russia is doing all it can right now. 250 00:15:10.440 --> 00:15:12.720 And we're always talking about, well he's going to escalate, 251 00:15:13.080 --> 00:15:18.559 What the hell more can you do? You know, he's already, 252 00:15:18.600 --> 00:15:22.679 he's already hitting Kiev. He's you know, I think the 253 00:15:22.879 --> 00:15:26.519 consensus is despite him always threatening to go to in Ucas, 254 00:15:26.600 --> 00:15:27.799 he's unlikely to do that. 255 00:15:29.799 --> 00:15:34.639 And and you know what I mean, what's that said? 256 00:15:34.679 --> 00:15:34.840 Go on? 257 00:15:34.919 --> 00:15:37.039 Nuclear would be like throwing a grade at somebody in 258 00:15:37.080 --> 00:15:40.919 an elevator. Ok, you're right next door, man, literally right 259 00:15:40.960 --> 00:15:45.039 next door. So if you start to use the nuclear weapons, yeah. 260 00:15:45.360 --> 00:15:47.679 And and you know one thing I forgot to mention. 261 00:15:47.919 --> 00:15:51.360 So they've destroyed a railroad bridge over this is all, 262 00:15:51.600 --> 00:15:55.080 you know, everything that links Crimea to the mainland Russia 263 00:15:55.159 --> 00:15:58.279 or Ukraine. That destroyed the bridges, They destroyed a railroad 264 00:15:58.279 --> 00:16:01.559 bridge of the North Crimean Canal. They're even hitting and 265 00:16:01.559 --> 00:16:04.559 now they're hitting ferries that the Russians are using to 266 00:16:04.559 --> 00:16:12.120 to move military equipment, and Defense Minister feder Off says 267 00:16:12.120 --> 00:16:15.559 Crimea is being isolated by drones and effectively is being 268 00:16:15.600 --> 00:16:19.960 turned into an island. They've declared a state of emergency. 269 00:16:20.000 --> 00:16:23.759 You know, it's gonna be interesting. And Moscow is the 270 00:16:23.799 --> 00:16:27.840 one that's cut the Kosh Bridge rail traffic just because 271 00:16:27.840 --> 00:16:30.519 of the risk to traffic going across the bridge. So 272 00:16:30.519 --> 00:16:34.360 so Crimea has been isolated, it's been negated as being 273 00:16:34.639 --> 00:16:37.879 any any sort of asset to Russia. And then you've 274 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:41.240 got this deep strike campaign that's gone up a gear. 275 00:16:41.600 --> 00:16:45.120 And so in just the last few days, trying the 276 00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:48.240 last weeks, since the beginning of July, the Ukrainians have 277 00:16:48.320 --> 00:16:55.159 hit twelve Russian substations. The Belograd was the Belograd thermal 278 00:16:55.240 --> 00:16:59.600 power plant knocked out, which caused a huge total blackout auto. 279 00:16:59.360 --> 00:17:00.840 Disruption across the city. 280 00:17:02.639 --> 00:17:07.359 The main airfield in Crimea Siki I think it's called 281 00:17:07.480 --> 00:17:11.839 s A k Y destroying Russian aircraft there and Saint Petersburg. 282 00:17:12.079 --> 00:17:14.640 I don't know if you saw that. You know, the 283 00:17:15.039 --> 00:17:18.079 film of this massive black cloud coming out of the 284 00:17:18.279 --> 00:17:21.519 oil terminal in Saint Petersburg, struck by drones. 285 00:17:23.000 --> 00:17:24.799 So it's it's. 286 00:17:24.640 --> 00:17:27.000 A really yeah, you know that it's come to the 287 00:17:27.039 --> 00:17:31.000 point where and I agree with you, Mick, I mean 288 00:17:31.039 --> 00:17:33.880 we should have been piling on, of course, the support 289 00:17:34.039 --> 00:17:38.960 Ukraine years ago, but Ukrainians are turning the type by themselves. 290 00:17:39.000 --> 00:17:41.720 Of course, you've still got to win back territory and 291 00:17:41.839 --> 00:17:44.759 that is the long pole for the Ukrainian state. They're 292 00:17:44.799 --> 00:17:47.559 running out of manpower and that that is certainly an 293 00:17:47.559 --> 00:17:53.160 issue for them. But strategically, yeah, they you know, they 294 00:17:53.200 --> 00:17:54.279 they have turned the type. 295 00:17:56.000 --> 00:18:02.079 Russian is the mass. You're gonna hear more and more 296 00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:07.119 about this, this junction of seventeen gas pipelines. It's in 297 00:18:08.079 --> 00:18:12.400 northwestern Siberia. Once they can hit that, that could have 298 00:18:12.519 --> 00:18:18.160 a major major impact in general Russia. So I think 299 00:18:18.160 --> 00:18:20.920 we should be obviously providing a lot more security assistance, 300 00:18:20.960 --> 00:18:22.680 but we should also be doing we don't have to 301 00:18:22.680 --> 00:18:25.039 be public about it, we don't need to know about 302 00:18:25.039 --> 00:18:27.359 it and talk about it, but we should be doing 303 00:18:27.400 --> 00:18:34.200 a lot more to push push the ah the tides toward. 304 00:18:35.359 --> 00:18:37.680 Yeah, it's a uh, I mean, it's a fascinating topic 305 00:18:37.839 --> 00:18:40.960 and Iran's kind of the cliffs that. But what has 306 00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:44.200 been going on in the last three months is it 307 00:18:44.240 --> 00:18:47.480 has been extraordinary. And you know, even when Russia, i 308 00:18:47.480 --> 00:18:52.079 mean his operational insight, even when Russia wins right in Dombas, 309 00:18:52.119 --> 00:18:55.079 it wins nothing. And I'm not just being facetious because 310 00:18:55.200 --> 00:18:58.720 Constantinivka and pop rosca shithole town, So I mean they 311 00:18:58.759 --> 00:19:02.640 are important to sites, especially Pokrovski it's a rail terminal. 312 00:19:03.079 --> 00:19:08.759 But for the Russians having ground, you know, Constinivka is 313 00:19:09.160 --> 00:19:11.839 it's a ruins of a small city, that's and it's 314 00:19:11.960 --> 00:19:15.920 cost them tens of thousands of lives. And they the 315 00:19:16.039 --> 00:19:19.559 Russians are exhausted. I mean they're not They're moving fifty 316 00:19:19.680 --> 00:19:22.599 meters a day, which is slower than the British move 317 00:19:22.680 --> 00:19:27.079 than the song and they're staring at tens of kilometers 318 00:19:27.200 --> 00:19:31.319 of mind fortified drone patrol terrain between them and the 319 00:19:31.400 --> 00:19:35.440 next objective, which is Krematrusk, which is basically Ukraine's last line. 320 00:19:35.279 --> 00:19:36.880 Of defense internets. 321 00:19:37.000 --> 00:19:40.400 So you know, even on the ground, the Russians are 322 00:19:41.279 --> 00:19:43.720 their prospects don't look they don't look good. 323 00:19:43.960 --> 00:19:45.920 Well, you know just the most recent development, which is 324 00:19:45.960 --> 00:19:48.359 the ninety minute phone call that Trump had with Putin 325 00:19:48.799 --> 00:19:51.799 yesterday during the Fourth of July celebrations, which is a 326 00:19:51.880 --> 00:19:54.240 very interesting development, and as far as I know so 327 00:19:54.319 --> 00:19:57.160 far what I've seen, the US didn't announce the details 328 00:19:57.200 --> 00:19:59.759 of that call, but the Russian Foreign Ministry did, which 329 00:19:59.799 --> 00:20:02.079 I think is also a little bit interesting because that's 330 00:20:02.079 --> 00:20:04.079 similar to what was going on between the US and Iran, 331 00:20:04.119 --> 00:20:06.119 where the US was not announcing any of the points 332 00:20:06.160 --> 00:20:08.200 from the deal, but Iran was. And it seems that 333 00:20:08.279 --> 00:20:10.799 Russia's doing the exact same thing right now, which means 334 00:20:10.799 --> 00:20:13.240 the US doesn't have control over the narrative about what's 335 00:20:13.440 --> 00:20:16.119 being said in those calls. So that's an opportunity for 336 00:20:16.160 --> 00:20:19.519 the US policymakers to seize control the narrative and actually 337 00:20:19.559 --> 00:20:22.240 say what needs to be said publicly. And I believe 338 00:20:22.319 --> 00:20:26.519 Zelenski was also called yesterday as well. So my hunch 339 00:20:26.640 --> 00:20:28.839 is that these calls were made ahead of the NATO 340 00:20:28.880 --> 00:20:31.440 summit to get some things ironed out, so that way 341 00:20:31.519 --> 00:20:33.920 those things can be discussed in person at the summit 342 00:20:34.000 --> 00:20:37.880 with other NATO leaders, of course, and that's why the 343 00:20:38.119 --> 00:20:41.960 Secretary General visited last week as well to get those 344 00:20:42.119 --> 00:20:45.400 things kind of evened out in person before they're discussed 345 00:20:45.799 --> 00:20:47.960 in Turkey coming up in the next few days. 346 00:20:48.680 --> 00:20:52.759 Yeah, I mean, Gloria victory is right now, it's purely 347 00:20:52.799 --> 00:20:56.160 political because they can't win militarily at fifty meters a 348 00:20:56.240 --> 00:20:59.400 day and half a million dead. So what it's doing 349 00:20:59.519 --> 00:21:02.880 is buying negotiating chips, right, but just by trying to 350 00:21:02.960 --> 00:21:06.599 seize a little more ground in don Esk and betting 351 00:21:06.720 --> 00:21:10.319 that Western patients runs out before Russian manpower does. 352 00:21:12.240 --> 00:21:15.200 And it's backbar and miserably right. I mean, his whole 353 00:21:15.319 --> 00:21:18.160 purpose was he was concerned about the expansion of NATO 354 00:21:18.319 --> 00:21:21.200 and the threat of NATO, even though NATO's never been 355 00:21:21.240 --> 00:21:23.759 a threat to Russia unless Russia is a threat to it. 356 00:21:24.440 --> 00:21:29.039 It's a defensive alliance, defensive alliance, right, So because of 357 00:21:29.119 --> 00:21:31.920 his invasion of Ukraine, it's now expanded in two countries 358 00:21:32.000 --> 00:21:34.440 it managed not to join for the entirety of the 359 00:21:34.519 --> 00:21:38.759 Cold War, and now they have. And now although they 360 00:21:38.759 --> 00:21:40.640 should have been doing it the whole time, but now 361 00:21:40.680 --> 00:21:43.400 they are. All the countries are spending more money on 362 00:21:43.480 --> 00:21:46.319 their national security and defense. There's I mean, look at 363 00:21:46.319 --> 00:21:48.759 what Germany's doing right now increasing the size of its 364 00:21:49.799 --> 00:21:53.440 its army, poland all across Europe. Right now, they are 365 00:21:53.480 --> 00:21:56.200 becoming a stronger ally to the United States. I think 366 00:21:56.240 --> 00:21:59.559 the United sty should recognize that we could take credit. 367 00:21:59.599 --> 00:22:01.559 I guess we want to. I think it's largely because 368 00:22:01.559 --> 00:22:04.400 of Russians of Asia Ukraine, but what have you. We 369 00:22:04.640 --> 00:22:09.079 now have a more substantial military alliance than we did 370 00:22:09.160 --> 00:22:13.039 before Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine is going to be 371 00:22:13.119 --> 00:22:16.480 the strongest military in Europe by far proper, but it is, 372 00:22:16.599 --> 00:22:17.799 especially with Finland joining. 373 00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:19.839 I agree with all that. The problem, of course, is 374 00:22:19.880 --> 00:22:21.799 we don't know what the US administration wants to do 375 00:22:22.079 --> 00:22:25.319 because it seems so divided. You know, there's there's the 376 00:22:25.720 --> 00:22:28.279 there's all these reports that came out that Hegseth was 377 00:22:28.279 --> 00:22:32.160 about to announce some very significant troop cuts. Uh, you know, 378 00:22:32.359 --> 00:22:34.759 Rubio and others kind of preempted him on this. I mean, 379 00:22:34.759 --> 00:22:37.599 there's this divide between kind of the Rubio Rancliffe Wing 380 00:22:37.960 --> 00:22:40.440 Dan Kane versus versus heg Seth and JD. 381 00:22:40.599 --> 00:22:40.880 Vance. 382 00:22:42.039 --> 00:22:44.039 But I think that you know the problem is, I 383 00:22:44.079 --> 00:22:47.359 mean you talk to European officials, you know, nobody really 384 00:22:47.440 --> 00:22:50.400 knows what Trump's going to do, uh when he when 385 00:22:50.400 --> 00:22:52.519 he gets to Turkey. Now he's going there because Radiwan 386 00:22:52.720 --> 00:22:55.480 is his buddy, fellow autocrat, and so you know, he's 387 00:22:55.559 --> 00:22:57.559 doing that as a reward. But you know, you just 388 00:22:57.599 --> 00:22:59.440 don't know. At the end of the day, is the 389 00:22:59.559 --> 00:23:03.799 US to announce significant true cuts in Europe? What kind 390 00:23:03.839 --> 00:23:07.240 of tone is Trump going to send? You know, is 391 00:23:07.279 --> 00:23:08.920 it going to be this kind of humiliation? 392 00:23:09.079 --> 00:23:09.759 Will it be more? 393 00:23:10.640 --> 00:23:12.880 And on the one hand, there is a notion, and 394 00:23:12.960 --> 00:23:14.640 I don't know if I subscribe to this, that because 395 00:23:14.680 --> 00:23:17.440 the Ukrainians are doing better, Trump wants to back a winner, 396 00:23:18.440 --> 00:23:21.359 and that the Laura Loomers of the world and Ratcliffe 397 00:23:21.359 --> 00:23:23.119 and others who kind of have kind of been feeding 398 00:23:23.279 --> 00:23:25.480 Trump the notion that Ukraine is doing really well. Well, 399 00:23:25.599 --> 00:23:28.440 then Trump's going to just side with Ukraine because he's 400 00:23:28.480 --> 00:23:32.559 just transactional and he believes in nothing. I don't know, 401 00:23:33.559 --> 00:23:35.240