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Speaker 1: There we go. All right, guys, welcome in. It's Thursday.

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It's time for total Bases. We're a minute late because

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we were talking about Fresco backstage and then all of

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a sudden it was time to start the show. But

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the good news is we don't need to bounce around today.

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There is there's only six games. Why did that? I

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think we're live everywhere. I had a little pop up

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right there. But six games. I'm gonna give everyone a

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chance to file in real quick. And I just want

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to point out before we get into it today, the

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massive l that Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball are

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taking with this schedule. Why because it's opening night of

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the NFL. And what did Major League Baseball do? Well,

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what they didn't do was look at the schedule and say, hey,

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maybe we should put a couple of games on earlier

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in the day. Because I guarantee you no one at

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Major League Baseball even noticed or even cared to say, hey,

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let's make sure on a Thursday, where we always have

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day games and most of the time we don't have

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enough on at night, let's make sure we stay out

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of the NFL's way because no one's gonna watch what

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do we get today? Four pm, six pm, seven to seven,

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seven and seven. I just it blows my mind that

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that Major League Baseball doesn't take advantage of a lot

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of opportunities to grow the game. One of them, Brian Leonard,

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would have been today having standalone games at one, maybe

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at three, at five, when everyone just loaded up their

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betting accounts, all these all these sort of fair weather

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people to bet the NFL tonight. Why would Major League

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Baseball take advantage of that. Instead, they're gonna put all

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six games up against football, which is mind numbing. But

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that's what we're gonna get. And today on the show,

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you're gonna get all six games. We're just gonna go

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in order, So right over to you. Finally, after we've

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waited around and done nothing all afternoon, at four pm Eastern,

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we get a game, and that game is Philly's Brewers,

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So start us up, Rangers Suarez, Freddy Perrault to, how

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are you seeing this one?

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Speaker 2: I don't think the NFL, excuse me, major League Baseball

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is smart enough to figure any of that out. It

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they make so many mistakes. They don't care. They just

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assume nobody's watching, nobody's watching baseball anyway, so I don't

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think they have any clue as to what's going on. Yeah,

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we're looking at the Phillies and the Brewers, and I

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was able to watch a lot of games. Yesterday I

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headed out to the to the local casino. My wife

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wanted to see the fiftieth anniversary of Jaws, and I

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guess yesterday was the last day, and she's a huge

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Shots fan, and she loved it. I guess it was

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in three D and everything. So it's unfortunate that a

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lot of people didn't get to see that. But I

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got to sit in a sportsbook up on myself and

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watch whatever I wanted, and it was great. I loved it.

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One of my favorite nights of the year. Rangersfarez going

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for going for the road team in Philadelphia today. He's

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the left e going against Peralta, who has been just

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terrific all season long. Paralta and the Brewers are about

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a one twenty two favorite seven and a half over

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or eight under, and in watching that game, it was

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clear that the Brewers are the better all round team.

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They do everything better. They don't score as many runs

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as Philly, they don't have the home run here as Philadelphia. Does.

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But they've got much better defense, much better players to

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be able to run the bases, and they're just the

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all around best team in baseball. And you know, obviously

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the run differential this year has shown that, but nobody's

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given him credit. I mean, they used the guy that's

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been around forever and he shuts down the Phillies. I mean,

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it's just the Brewers. I love this Brewers team this year.

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It reminds me a lot of the Tampa Bay from

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years past when they were always going to the playoffs. Okay,

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let's get to this game. Andre Suarez three h two eight,

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three point zero six expected, one point one seven whip.

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He is the ace of this team now that Wheeler

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is out. Nola once again struggled again yesterday. I wouldn't

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count on Nola for the playoffs. Rangers fastball velos. He

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is only in the seventh percentile, his extensives in the thirtieth,

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But are there not. Everything's great ninety ninth percentile and

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hard hit rate nineteen to eighth and average Eaxson velocity.

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This is a guy. He's a lefty and I love that.

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And he keeps the batter's off balance. He throws six

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different pitches and his fourth Samery only throws fourteen percent

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of the time because it's only ninety one point three

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miles an hour. Love Ranger Swarez, This guy is just

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a terrific pitcher. Freddy Peralti is having a career year.

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He's been around for eight seasons and has a three

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point five to nine career ERA this year two point

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five eight, but he's expected as three point four to

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one one point seven on the whip ground ball rate

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twenty seventh percentile, which is not very good. Walk Grete

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thirty two. He's one of those guys that will put

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people on if he thinks you're going to beat him,

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and I have no problem with that. Shan Bieber's done

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that in the past, a lot of other guys have

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done it with success. Seems to be working out well

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with him. His strikeout minus Walker Rettio on the season

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is eighteen for excuse me, seventeen point five. Not outstanding,

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but very good. But he only throws four pitches and

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his fourth seamer is number one fifty four percent. He's

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about league average in that regard, but he's got a

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lot of rent. On a stat gas page hard hit

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rate ninety thirty percent, and I like both these pitchers. Now,

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the situation we're going to run into here is the

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total is only seven and a half here, and we

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did get some bullpen usage yesterday. That is a concern.

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It is a getaway day for these teams, but it

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is an afternoon game, an early game from that point

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for to ten the earliest on the card today, Like

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the under, Pinnacle just moved it to eight, and I

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think that's probably the way it's going to go. It's

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probably you get seven and a half. I don't think

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I'm interested, but if you can get eight, I kind

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of like the under in it. But other than that,

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I don't. I don't know if I'm gonna get there.

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It's clear to me that Milwaukee is the team to

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beat at this point. They just like the way they play,

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and all the other teams have the big stars, but

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that's not a team game. It's an individual game in

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that regard, and that's that's the problem you have. So

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like Milwaukee on the season, but in hon scamp, probably

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not gonna get there with anything.

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Speaker 3: My first impression when looking at these two teams was

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I got Philadelphia ranked slightly better than Milwaukee at hitting

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and bullpen. But I got Parlta slightly rated higher than

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Rangers Suarez on a curve, so kind of stuck here.

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Both lineups are top six, both bullpens are bottom ten

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in current form, and both starters are are top ten

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on a curve of thirty, which means they're both in

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the top one third of starting pitchers. So I looked

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a little deeper and I found that Ranger Suarez has

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been absolutely tagged by these batters in his career. He's

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got fifty five at bats against a three sixty four

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average against in a nine to ninety seven OPS. That's

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that's two hundred and fifty points higher than what I

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would like to see at seven point fifty. So my

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first inclination was to kind of go for the Phillies here,

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But after looking at that and looking at the team

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total Milwaukee Brewers team total only three and a half.

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Now I've got them their hitters ranked nine out of

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thirty in current form, and I've got the Philly bullpen

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rank eighteen. Given the fact that Ranger Suarez could get

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knocked around by these guys, and he's got a bullpen

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that's in a little bit of tatters right now, I

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think three and a half's a little low for Milwaukee,

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so I would look at their team total over three

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and a half, but I haven't played it yet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a tough one. I think I leaned

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toward I would lean in toward the you know, the

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bullpen usage year. I guess something I've kind of said

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about the Brewers for a couple of weeks now is

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you're not going to see them really, you know, just

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exert anyone if they don't have to. So like, if

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there's a scenario where they've used some bullpen arms, I

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think we're going to see a spot like we saw.

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I forget who they were playing, but I think Brian

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ended up kind of getting burned in a spot where

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they left Garrett Anderson out there in the ninth inning

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on a Sunday after they used a couple of bullpen

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arms and they blew. I think it was the Reds

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Brewers Reds, and they had like guys that weren't in

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their normal spot in like the eighth and ninth inning.

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So you know, you look at a scenario where the

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Brewers win, and they win six to three, and then

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yesterday I'm just kind of pulling it up quick, they

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used you know, they used Ashby, they used a rebay

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cone came in for the save. You know you're not

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gonna say, I don't think you're gonna see them really

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put much stress on anyone at the end of games.

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So not one I'm gonna spend much more time on

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because I don't believe I'll have a play here. But

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that would, I guess, be my concern in a game

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that otherwise looks to be very evenly matched. I thought

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on Monday or on Tuesday when we first started talking

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about this series that it was going to be a

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competitive series. It's been that to this point. So no

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play for me here. The thing that would put me

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off is maybe the bullpen usage, and maybe because of

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that you get some late runs and that seven and

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a half is a little bit low. So the slightest

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of leans toward Phillies plus money and the over. Don't

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think I'm gonna play either of those, all right right

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down the list. Next game is one that you know,

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I definitely I feel like I've kind of gotten this

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right the last couple of days with the Pirates. They've

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now taken the first two games of this series, and

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you didn't need the plus one and a half, Brian Leonard,

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you're not getting a plus one and a half today

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with Paul Skins on the MoU. Is this the day

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the Dodgers pull one back in your opinion? Right here,

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Dodgers pirates, this is.

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Speaker 2: The rematch of the last time these two play corrects

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now against games sounds right?

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that I can look that up, but

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that those teams got.

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Speaker 2: That victory in that one. We've talked about the Dodgers

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on how to treat them the rest of the season,

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and it's worked out very well. They along with the Padres,

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right now, we're just not playing with any emphasis on

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trying to win. They're already locked in the playoffs virtually,

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so there's teams that we can go against, and it's

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going to be I talked about this the other day,

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whereas I said, the Dodgers are about to play three

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teams that aren't very good, and then they finished the

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season with competitive teams and rivalries that kind of thing.

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They've already lost the first two games of this series,

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and I think this is the game that they come

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to play, because if you take a look at their

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schedule coming up, this is by far the best pitcher

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that they were going to face in Paul Skins. They

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just lost to Paul Skins, and especially Snell, who did

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not pitch that great in that game. I think this

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is the Dodgers. We can come out and we can

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get them at a discount of price. Here we're looking

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at one as low as one sixteen up to one

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twenty out there on the Dodgers in a total of

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seven to the over. And I think this is a

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game that I'm going to look at the Dodgers and

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think I could probably get some value in here. Blake Snell.

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I just talked about guys who walk people just so

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they don't have to face them in a bad situation.

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He's the guy that leads a league in this and

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his walk rates eleven point four percent, his strike out

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raged twenty four point one twelve point seven is not

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what we normally see out of Blake Snell. So even

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though he's got that two point four to one ERA

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three point eighty eight expected one point three seven a whip,

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he really has to pitch that well yet. But last

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year he had a thirty four point seven strikeout rate

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only ten point five walkyre. So he's gone one two three, four, five, six,

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eight years straight in which he's had a strikeout rate

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in the thirties. It's only twenty four point one. Now

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I would expect now that he's building up some innings.

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He's up to thirty seven on the season. We see

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more of that here, even on his limited innings thirty

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seven point one. We see a lot of red on

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his status page. Obviously, the walks are the concern, but

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those walks are done on purpose as opposed to a

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lot of players in that regard schemes. Terrific pitcher, no

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doubt about it, likely to win the saw. Young now

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with a wheeler out comes in with a two point

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oh five ERA two point five to nine expected, zero

242
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point nine to five whip. He's already pitched. Now, this

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is major leagues. I know we spent a lot of

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time in the miners last year, but he's already pitched

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thirty four more innings than last year. This is a

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pirates and that's not going anywhere. He's a bulldog. He's

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gonna want to take the ball every time he goes

248
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out there. But if the Pirates are smart, they will

249
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live in his innings the rest of the way. They

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got some other guys in the miners that deserve that

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starting rotation, so it would not surprise me if he's

252
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a five and fly guy the rest of the season.

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And if you take a look at the Pirates' bullpen,

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they're in serious trouble here because they won those last

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two games, so they're gonna lose out on their eighth

256
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and ninth inning guy and their seventh inning guy is

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gonna have to close for the Pirates tonight. So as

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this game goes on, I like the Dodgers a little

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bit more. Maybe if we wait a little bit in

260
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live betting, we can catch the Dodgers a plus money.

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But overall, on a small scale today with not too

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many games being played, I do think this is a

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game that the better team gets the victory, and that'll

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be the Dodgers.

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Speaker 1: Guys.

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Speaker 3: Go to wijatalk dot com and see what we have up.

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00:14:00,039 --> 00:14:02,440
I've got a Major League Baseball play. I'm sure my

268
00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,840
comrades here will have one up today and a free

269
00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,200
play as well. So take the ten seconds to go

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00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:11,679
to wagytalk dot com or see that scroller down there.

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00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:15,080
You can see the shortcut right to our pages and

272
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:20,639
see our free plays. So are the Dodgers going to

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lose to Lotzinski, lose to Ashcraft and then beat schemes.

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That would be highly unlikely, but that's baseball. That's usually

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what's going to happen, the most unlikely thing. If you

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cover the logos here, the Pirates have the better hitting,

277
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the better bullpen by far, the better bullpen, and the

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better starter. Today it's so, yeah, well the Dodgers win

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under those circumstances. Well, that's baseball, guys. Weird things happen

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in baseball. For the record, Blake Snell has a three

281
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plus ERA on the road and a one ERA at home.

282
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Paul Skeens has a one point five ERA at home,

283
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so he's really good against these Dodgers.

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Speaker 2: Though.

285
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Speaker 3: There's a couple batters who can get to Skeens at

286
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least small sample size, but Tascar Hernandez is four for

287
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eight against him and Pahz is four for four against him.

288
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So if you want to take hits runs RBIs, those

289
00:15:20,919 --> 00:15:23,480
would be two guys to look at. Probably get pretty

290
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good number because Skeens is a top two pitcher in

291
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all of MLB. So yeah, Skeen's numbers against the Dodgers

292
00:15:34,799 --> 00:15:38,200
not the best. Snell against these Pirates fifty seven at

293
00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:40,799
bats against a one ninety three average and a five

294
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:45,240
sixty three. Ohps really good. So I would take those

295
00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,879
two guys on hits runs RBIs or I would take

296
00:15:48,879 --> 00:15:51,360
the first five under if it's three and a half

297
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for better, I would not take a three, but I

298
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would take a three and a half or even altered

299
00:15:55,879 --> 00:15:59,120
to a four and a half, because I think both

300
00:15:59,159 --> 00:16:01,320
of these starters are going to hold it down for

301
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at least the first five. So those would be the

302
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two ways I would go. Here, will the Dodgers win

303
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the game that they're not supposed to win? Probably that's

304
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usually how baseball goes.

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Speaker 1: A couple couple things. So the first thing, Snell has

306
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not faced the Pirates yet this year. That was he was.

307
00:16:18,279 --> 00:16:20,360
That was way earlier in the year. He was on

308
00:16:20,399 --> 00:16:23,879
the ee out. Yeah that no, he was just he

309
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,559
was just hurt. So that game, that game that Brian

310
00:16:26,679 --> 00:16:30,159
was thinking of with Skeens versuhyamamoda. Just just so we're

311
00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:34,600
factually correct, Snell Snell was. That was way back April.

312
00:16:34,679 --> 00:16:36,399
I don't think these two teams have played since, like

313
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:40,240
since like late April when that series was. The second

314
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,600
thing I don't know that the Dodgers are not supposed

315
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,399
to win this game. They're still favored. I think what

316
00:16:46,399 --> 00:16:48,960
I'll what I'll say here is so this is someone

317
00:16:49,039 --> 00:16:52,039
that's been very pro Pirates the last couple of days,

318
00:16:52,519 --> 00:16:54,720
that this is the probably the worst spot of the

319
00:16:54,759 --> 00:16:58,320
whole series to play them, and it's because of the

320
00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:00,799
bullpen using. So you have Pirates. Not only did they

321
00:17:00,919 --> 00:17:02,480
cover the plus one and a half, they won the

322
00:17:02,559 --> 00:17:04,839
last two days and they've won close games, So they've

323
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basically burned through any bullpen arm that you would want

324
00:17:08,039 --> 00:17:10,279
out there, they've burned through. Now the wild card here

325
00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,640
is Justin Lawrence, but I don't know why he's not

326
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:16,720
on the team yet. So Justin Lawrence is probably would

327
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,640
be their best leverage relief arm. He's coming back from injury.

328
00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:25,319
He threw three times last week at for the for

329
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,960
the Triple A team, So I just assumed that he

330
00:17:28,079 --> 00:17:32,000
was going to be activated ahead of this series, and

331
00:17:32,039 --> 00:17:34,279
for whatever reason, he hasn't. But he hasn't appeared at

332
00:17:34,319 --> 00:17:37,839
Triple A yet this week either. So that's something I'll

333
00:17:37,839 --> 00:17:40,319
personally have my eye on coming up to this game.

334
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,680
Is he going to be activated today? Did he? Did

335
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:45,039
he tweak something. Did he did he have a setback?

336
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,240
Is he back on the IL I don't know. I

337
00:17:47,279 --> 00:17:49,400
haven't found anything out of it yet, but that would

338
00:17:49,559 --> 00:17:52,240
that would certainly change things for me here in terms

339
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,640
of like leaning toward the Pirates. If I knew I

340
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,559
had Schemes and I knew I had Lawrence in a

341
00:17:56,640 --> 00:18:00,599
Levertt spot after that, I'd be more inclined to take

342
00:18:00,599 --> 00:18:03,400
the Pirates because of that. If he's not there, I

343
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,480
don't think I want anything to do with the Pirates

344
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,000
from the full game standpoint, because of what Brian said.

345
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,119
They've got to be you know, they've got to have

346
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,119
an eye on Skeens innings at this point, and it's

347
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,119
hard to believe he's out there past the fifth inning.

348
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,759
So but because of that, it's still Paul Skeens, and

349
00:18:18,799 --> 00:18:21,480
he's still you know, he he if he knows he's

350
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:23,319
only going five, I think you're gonna get his best

351
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:28,119
effort over those five. So maybe Pirates minus one ten

352
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,920
for the first five, and you just because you know

353
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,039
you're probably gonna get five out of Skiens. He's probably

354
00:18:32,079 --> 00:18:34,480
not gonna only go four unless he's getting hit hard.

355
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:36,799
So if I was gonna bet this game today, like

356
00:18:36,839 --> 00:18:39,160
I can't. I can't go against the Pirates at this point,

357
00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,119
just because I'd be contradicting everything I said the past

358
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,799
couple of days. That being said, it's definitely not the

359
00:18:44,799 --> 00:18:46,880
best price and not the best spot to bet them

360
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,240
the full game. So if I'm playing here, it's got

361
00:18:49,279 --> 00:18:51,519
to be Pirates first five, and I'm just gonna take

362
00:18:51,519 --> 00:18:54,359
a shot that Skeens is just because Skeens is the

363
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,359
better of these two pitchers. Probably not, there's not, not

364
00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:01,359
by a a landslide, but he is. I would just

365
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,480
put my money on schemes for five innings. If the

366
00:19:04,519 --> 00:19:08,000
game is tied, I get my money back. If he's

367
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,400
in the lead, I take it and run. Because the Dodgers,

368
00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,799
if they they will probably get to this Pirates bullpen,

369
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,680
especially if Justin Lawrence is not back, which it kind

370
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,319
of looks like, why would they activate him in the

371
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,759
middle of the series, right, That's not how they usually operate.

372
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,960
Usually it's okay, we're gonna bring him back at the

373
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,119
beginning of the series, or he's gonna meet us in

374
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:29,240
Milwaukee wherever we're going next. So without him, that Pirates

375
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,599
bullpen is in trouble today and you could see some

376
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,839
late runs for the Dodgers, which maybe gives you a

377
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,319
chance at this over seven that's an awfully low number

378
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,720
if there's runs at the end of the game. So

379
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,440
just the way I see it, probably no action in

380
00:19:43,519 --> 00:19:46,160
either of those for me, just trying to reason out

381
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:51,160
my thoughts here. Brian Leonard. The Guardians, I gotta say,

382
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,680
I mean, as a fan, this must be like every

383
00:19:55,720 --> 00:20:00,440
time that they're completely buried, somehow they win games, and

384
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,079
that's really like this. The start to this week, it

385
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,640
looked like they were about to be buried, and what happens.

386
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,480
The Mariners can't win a game, and now the Guardians

387
00:20:08,519 --> 00:20:10,799
go out and get a win. To give you more

388
00:20:10,839 --> 00:20:13,640
false hope, the season of false hope for Guardians and

389
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,799
Guardians fans. They play the Rays who are giving their

390
00:20:17,839 --> 00:20:20,240
fans maybe some false hope as well. I believe six

391
00:20:20,319 --> 00:20:23,640
wins in a row now after totally blasting the Mariners,

392
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,119
and actually what the Rays did the last couple of

393
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,680
days was get both of these teams back in the mix.

394
00:20:28,759 --> 00:20:33,720
Because the Mariners they need to have a long that's

395
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:35,720
gonna be a long flight home to Seattle. They're gonna

396
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,160
have to think about some things because suddenly that final

397
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,559
spot is up for grabs, and these are the two

398
00:20:41,599 --> 00:20:44,400
teams that look like they could grab it. Your Cleveland

399
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,400
Guardians an underdog again here? Do they keep it going

400
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,000
for you for one more day? Is the question?

401
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,039
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's amazing how this season has gone for them.

402
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,799
Every time you think that they're out of it, they

403
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,440
pull you right back again. Uh yeah. Allen the lefty

404
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,599
going against Pepio thel Ready for Tampa Bay. Ted Bay

405
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,799
is about a one sixty favorite here total eight and

406
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:10,440
a half to the under logan Allen getting the start

407
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:15,759
for Cleveland. He's four four to two ERA, four seven

408
00:21:15,799 --> 00:21:19,440
to expected one point four to four whip. He's had

409
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,279
a problem with his whip in his entire career in

410
00:21:21,279 --> 00:21:23,720
three seasons at one point four to six. That's not pretty.

411
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,160
In fact, the only thing you take a look at

412
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:29,720
his card and no bright red at all. But his

413
00:21:29,759 --> 00:21:32,119
heart hit rate's pretty good in the seventy fourth percentile.

414
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,480
But if you take a loc at his barrel rate,

415
00:21:34,519 --> 00:21:38,720
it's in the twenty seventh percentile and Chase right in

416
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,200
the fourth. I think he's getting a little bit lucky

417
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,680
in that heart hit rate. Five pitches he throws all

418
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,519
at least ten percent his four seemer he throws the

419
00:21:48,519 --> 00:21:51,240
most at ninety one point one miles an hour. Not

420
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:55,880
overly impressive. He's just a guy for myself that's just

421
00:21:56,359 --> 00:22:01,079
eating up innings for Cleveland, and and he's not one

422
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,640
of those guys I'm looking to back on a regular basis.

423
00:22:04,759 --> 00:22:08,359
Pepio A little disappointed season here for Peprio. I thought

424
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,079
this was going to be a breakout season four him.

425
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,920
He's he's done very well in four seasons three point

426
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,119
four to six ERA one point one four whip, but

427
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:17,279
this year I thought it was gonna be the one

428
00:22:17,319 --> 00:22:19,079
for him to step up. He's got a three point

429
00:22:19,079 --> 00:22:22,000
seven o EIRA four point oh one expected one point

430
00:22:22,079 --> 00:22:26,000
one five whip. He grades out if by looking at

431
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,359
his techas space, he's like an average pitcher, and to

432
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,400
have the eras that he has had in his career

433
00:22:31,519 --> 00:22:33,799
and only be an average pitcher tells me that he's

434
00:22:33,839 --> 00:22:38,880
over overproducing what his value is. He does throw six pitches,

435
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,559
but the main one is his four sever at forty

436
00:22:41,599 --> 00:22:44,720
four percent, and he throws a few others a little

437
00:22:44,759 --> 00:22:48,839
bit lesser, change and slider a little bit. But he's

438
00:22:48,839 --> 00:22:51,400
a guy that I'm a little bit disappointed on so

439
00:22:51,519 --> 00:22:55,599
far this season, and we're looking at this game here,

440
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,839
the way Cleveland's playing. You know, they do have the

441
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,160
lefty and I do prefer the lefties, although the readies

442
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,720
are starting to make amends that on the season, but

443
00:23:05,799 --> 00:23:08,400
still the lefties have a better record and they've performed

444
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:13,960
better slightly to Cleveland here, But I don't know if

445
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,519
I'll get there. I think both teams are overplaying what

446
00:23:16,559 --> 00:23:18,440
they have right now. Tampa Bay, he still has some

447
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,359
quality players on the DL. Cleveland has brought up. They

448
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,000
brought a big Christmas again yesterday and he had a

449
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,480
home run or two, and so he's always excites the

450
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,480
crowd and Cleveland they love him, even though he hasn't

451
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:34,640
performed well. But I don't trust either one of these

452
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,680
teams to win. But if I had to play it,

453
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,200
I'd take the point. I take the plus money with Cleveland.

454
00:23:42,079 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 3: Pepio is a little bit disappointing this season. But take

455
00:23:46,759 --> 00:23:50,359
a look at his last four or five starts, five innings,

456
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:54,960
no earned, five innings, no earned, five innings, four earned,

457
00:23:55,839 --> 00:23:59,079
six innings for earned, so he's kind of coming in

458
00:23:59,759 --> 00:24:04,519
to it. He did not face the best lineups Saint

459
00:24:04,519 --> 00:24:08,519
Louis and Washington in those two five inning shutout starts.

460
00:24:09,039 --> 00:24:12,279
But I don't think Cleveland is exactly a power offense either.

461
00:24:12,839 --> 00:24:15,440
Cleveland's won two games in a row against Tampa, and

462
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,880
Tampa does have false hope, but I think they still

463
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,440
think they have some hope. I've got them ranked way

464
00:24:23,519 --> 00:24:27,240
higher than Cleveland here, Pepio. I got him six spots

465
00:24:27,319 --> 00:24:31,319
higher than Allen. I got the Tampa bullpen rank six

466
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:35,880
while I got Cleveland ranked twenty and hitting got Tampa

467
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,279
ranked ten while I got Cleveland ranked twenty nine. So

468
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,599
I like the race here. I'm gonna make it my

469
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,240
parlay leg. Actually, I'm gonna take Tampa on the money

470
00:24:45,279 --> 00:24:49,000
line here. I think Pepo's had two really good starts,

471
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,400
and I think he's gonna continue it against another offense

472
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:56,960
that's been a little bit disappointing this season, one red flag.

473
00:24:57,279 --> 00:25:00,200
He his stats against these batters are not the best

474
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,759
in his history, but that was not this season. I

475
00:25:03,759 --> 00:25:06,480
think a little bit of momentum means a lot. These

476
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,400
guys are very streaky up and down, and I think

477
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,519
Pepiel's on a good streak here, So I'm going to

478
00:25:11,599 --> 00:25:14,599
take him and the Rays as my parlay leg.

479
00:25:16,079 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 2: They're about one fifty nine right now.

480
00:25:18,319 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 3: I'm fifty nine good for a parlay leg.

481
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, and especially on a day where there's there's not

482
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,839
much I can't really I can't really argue with that

483
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,440
from a just trying to pick the winner standpoint, And

484
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,599
if you're putting in the parlay, no, no big deal

485
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,480
in the price. So yeah, I mean I would have

486
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,440
I would have interest in the raise from a side standpoint,

487
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,559
probably if they if the price was was significantly cheaper.

488
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,240
But you're not really worried about minus one sixty in

489
00:25:42,279 --> 00:25:45,640
the parlay, So no no issues with that for me.

490
00:25:45,799 --> 00:25:48,839
Were what? So I look at this and like, I

491
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,960
kind of, you know, you go back to that last

492
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,880
series you had, the one you had the one game

493
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,640
where I believe the raise one nine nothing. The other

494
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,920
two games were lower scoring. I think I think the

495
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,559
books kind of look at this matchup and say, we

496
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,519
have two bad offenses here, and so we're gonna price

497
00:26:05,519 --> 00:26:10,480
it accordingly. I wouldn't be surprised if poor pitching outweighed

498
00:26:10,839 --> 00:26:14,880
the quote unquote bad offense here. I think this one

499
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,279
gets over. I don't like Logan Allen at all. I

500
00:26:18,279 --> 00:26:21,599
think he's it's shocking to me that he is still

501
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,920
in a starting rotation in the bigs with with some

502
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,480
of the the like when you look at stack cast

503
00:26:28,519 --> 00:26:30,920
page and stuff like that, and every time I watch

504
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,680
Logan Allen pitch a Big League game, it's typically how

505
00:26:33,759 --> 00:26:36,200
is how did he just get through six innings? How

506
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:40,119
did he just get through five innings? He's credit to him.

507
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,880
I'm sure there's a lot of a lot of pitchers

508
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,640
that have gotten to this level that that wish they

509
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,559
could sort of do that. You know, even if they would,

510
00:26:48,599 --> 00:26:51,440
they would trade worse stuff to be able to navigate

511
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,799
a game like he's been able to do. But again,

512
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,640
like he's he's someone that can absolutely get hit And

513
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,359
I'm with you guys on on you know, I'm with

514
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,559
you Brian on Pepio. I've very disappointed in him this year.

515
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,640
Coming into the season, I kind of felt like he

516
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,759
could be like a legitimate ace and he just really

517
00:27:06,799 --> 00:27:09,680
hasn't been that expect the Arras round four, which is

518
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,079
which is not bad, but still concerning exit v low,

519
00:27:13,279 --> 00:27:18,279
you know, he gets hit hard, like just it's just average.

520
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,000
In my opinion, he's been you know, he's been average

521
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,240
to above average, nothing special. So again, you talk about

522
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,599
an eight and a half in this type of game,

523
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:28,839
feels like there could be a timely hit or two

524
00:27:28,839 --> 00:27:31,160
on either side. You get to four to four, it's

525
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,559
already over. So again, I just think that the books

526
00:27:34,559 --> 00:27:36,599
maybe shaded this one toward the under because of the

527
00:27:36,599 --> 00:27:39,279
two teams you're dealing with. But these are not under

528
00:27:39,279 --> 00:27:41,680
pitchers right now in my opinion, and this is not

529
00:27:41,759 --> 00:27:42,559
an under ballpark.

530
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 2: Really.

531
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: Remember we're not at the trap right like this is

532
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,799
Steinbrenner Field spring training facility. Ball can get out of

533
00:27:49,839 --> 00:27:53,799
there quickly. It's not a it's not like a pitcher's

534
00:27:53,839 --> 00:27:56,400
park by any means. So I'll throw out a small

535
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,599
lean toward the over. But we'll let TV keep that

536
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,240
one and we'll go raise in the parlay. Have no

537
00:28:02,319 --> 00:28:06,599
issue with that, all right, next game, got this one

538
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:10,160
wrong yesterday I thought that that was a home run

539
00:28:10,279 --> 00:28:14,079
spot set up everything for the Royals. But Brian, you

540
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,519
make such a good point about these sort of need

541
00:28:16,559 --> 00:28:19,160
to win teams. I almost feel like they've become a

542
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,759
net negative. You said this weeks ago, and you've been

543
00:28:21,839 --> 00:28:24,319
right about this. These teams that get a little bit

544
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,119
overpriced because they quote unquote need to win or it's

545
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,000
a huge game for them. The point you made was, well,

546
00:28:30,039 --> 00:28:31,880
it's a big game because they haven't won enough so

547
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,920
far this year. Right, It's so important for the Royals

548
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,640
because they've put themselves in the spot by being an

549
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,680
average team, and you're kind of seeing that again here

550
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,000
Royals at home. Yeah, I mean, you would think that

551
00:28:44,039 --> 00:28:46,119
they could get one of these. Are you willing to

552
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,799
pay a dollar fifty to do that? That's the question.

553
00:28:49,839 --> 00:28:52,160
It didn't work out yesterday, doesn't work out here.

554
00:28:54,039 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 2: If anybody missed yesterday's show, I highly recommend you go

555
00:28:59,359 --> 00:29:01,200
back and watch to at least the segment. It was

556
00:29:01,319 --> 00:29:02,559
near the end of the show. I think it was

557
00:29:02,559 --> 00:29:06,759
the last game we talked about where I was. I

558
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,480
rarely disagree with these guys as much as that one,

559
00:29:10,559 --> 00:29:13,319
and it worked out in my favor. I gave a

560
00:29:13,359 --> 00:29:16,759
good spot for the Angels and Trick came back and

561
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:21,279
shot me down with some nice information for Kansas City.

562
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:23,640
It was a tight game. It could have went either way,

563
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:28,880
but that was a really good segment. I thought I

564
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,400
learned from him, he learned from me, and that's why

565
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:33,079
we're all good.

566
00:29:34,599 --> 00:29:36,759
Speaker 1: Catch twelve to learn.

567
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 2: So it worked out very well. I will say in

568
00:29:41,559 --> 00:29:46,119
this game, we've got Kyle Hendricks against Noah Cameron. Cameron's

569
00:29:46,119 --> 00:29:49,079
the lefty Cameron in Kansas City are about a one

570
00:29:49,039 --> 00:29:53,759
to fifty favorite generally about nine on the line, slightly

571
00:29:53,799 --> 00:29:58,440
to the over. I'm really take If you take a

572
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,720
look at the statcase page on Baseball Savant on the

573
00:30:01,839 --> 00:30:06,759
MLB website, it's amazing when you take a look at

574
00:30:06,799 --> 00:30:09,920
Kyle Hendricks. First of all, he's got a four point

575
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,039
eight nine ERA four point one five expected one point

576
00:30:13,079 --> 00:30:18,640
three to one whip. You rarely see the discrepancy from

577
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,079
a pitcher in Major League baseball. He's in the ninety

578
00:30:21,119 --> 00:30:25,200
fifth percentile and average ex of velocity eighty eighth percentile

579
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,799
and hard hit rate eighty fourth and chase rate seventy

580
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:33,640
ninth in walk rate. Terrific numbers. The same pitcher is

581
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:38,960
number in the first percentile in fastball velocity first percentile

582
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:43,119
and extension fifth percentile and wiff rate and six percentile

583
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:47,359
in strikeout rate. Considering he doesn't strike anybody out, He's

584
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,359
only got eighty nine strikeouts in one hundred and thirty

585
00:30:49,359 --> 00:30:52,119
six point one innings. How is this guy winning? He's

586
00:30:52,119 --> 00:30:55,279
got six to nine on the season. That's a good

587
00:30:55,319 --> 00:30:57,839
season for him. He went four to twelve the year before.

588
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,200
I like the way he's pitching, and I took some

589
00:31:01,319 --> 00:31:05,079
time and looked at what he's done this year compared

590
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,559
to last year. Now, he's used the change up for

591
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:13,400
most of his pitches both years, but it's changed up.

592
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:18,640
Last year he used he had a he had a

593
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,079
two ninety five expected wOBA. This year it's two ninety.

594
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,200
But he's using it a lot against lefties. He's had

595
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,519
success in that regard. Last year four hundred and fifty

596
00:31:29,559 --> 00:31:33,200
five pitches against lefties, three hundred and seventy two against righties.

597
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,160
This year four to forty eight against lefties, three seventy

598
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:40,480
six against righties. To ninety wOBA is awesome. You take

599
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,279
a look at that compared to his curve ball, which

600
00:31:42,319 --> 00:31:45,759
is at five to sixteen wOBA. That means against lefties

601
00:31:46,279 --> 00:31:49,559
he's really good. And what does Kansas City do. It's

602
00:31:49,559 --> 00:31:53,839
a city throws a lot of lefties against you. Mike Yastrimski,

603
00:31:54,599 --> 00:32:02,279
uh Pas Contino, Adam Frazier, Massy Caglione, Isabelle and Carter Jensen,

604
00:32:02,319 --> 00:32:06,279
the catcher that they brought up all left handed batters

605
00:32:06,759 --> 00:32:09,759
and he gets to face them. So I like the

606
00:32:09,839 --> 00:32:14,640
situation right here with the Angels. Once again, this is

607
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,400
a team that's been out of the playoffs a long time.

608
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:22,200
They continue to find ways to fight and keep everybody involved.

609
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,920
And I like the way Kyle Hendrix is pitched. And

610
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,759
I think I probably said that twice in the last decade.

611
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,880
Noah Cameron rookie having a terrific rookie season seven to six,

612
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,559
two point nine two eira three point five four expected

613
00:32:35,759 --> 00:32:38,480
one point zho nine whip and he's a lot of

614
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,599
the same. He's very good in his barrel percentage in

615
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:44,720
ninetieth percentile, heart hit rate seventy seventh Avera Jackson velocity

616
00:32:44,759 --> 00:32:48,680
eighty fourth, but his fastball velocity only nineteenth percent has

617
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,440
chased raight twenty seventh, strikeout rate twenty sixth. He throws

618
00:32:52,759 --> 00:32:55,759
five pitches, all of them about the same, so I

619
00:32:55,799 --> 00:32:58,440
really like the way he does that. He's not going

620
00:32:58,519 --> 00:33:01,079
to blow you away by the strikeouts and his ability

621
00:33:01,119 --> 00:33:03,559
to get you out in that direction. But we've got

622
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,839
two crafty pitchers here. One is a long time veteran,

623
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,440
one is a young guy. And I like the situation

624
00:33:10,519 --> 00:33:13,880
for the Angels. You're getting them at plus one thirty

625
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,720
five or so on on this so you can even

626
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,400
go as low as one thirty up to one thirty seven.

627
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,759
So let me play the Angels. I didn't use them

628
00:33:22,799 --> 00:33:27,400
yesterday because Trigg made a great reason to to not

629
00:33:27,519 --> 00:33:29,640
play them, but I'm going to play them today. I'm

630
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,400
gonna take them at plus Let's go plus one thirty

631
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,400
five the Angels plus one thirty five. Here will be

632
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:36,519
my part of the Partly.

633
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 3: Guys, go to wayjatalk dot com and see what we

634
00:33:40,519 --> 00:33:42,960
got up. I have a Major League Baseball play up,

635
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,880
and I'm sure my friends here will as well. We

636
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,000
always put free plays up. It's worth the ten seconds

637
00:33:49,039 --> 00:33:50,880
to go check it out and leave a comment on

638
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:54,400
the replay here. We read them all and we appreciate

639
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,319
you guys showing Wayger Talk that you support our show.

640
00:33:58,279 --> 00:34:01,160
I'm gonna go against Brian here. I don't do it often,

641
00:34:01,599 --> 00:34:03,799
but I like I like the Royals in this case.

642
00:34:04,359 --> 00:34:08,079
Uh Noah Cameron, how many pitchers in Major League Baseball

643
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,639
have as many innings as he's got with a two

644
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,440
with a sub three ERA and a one oh nine whip.

645
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,840
Those are like those are those are wheeler numbers?

646
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: Uh.

647
00:34:16,519 --> 00:34:20,679
Speaker 3: The problem is he's been a little shaky recently. In

648
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:24,199
his last couple starts, he's starting to give up runs.

649
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:29,000
It's probably because because he's young, uh and slightly in experience.

650
00:34:29,119 --> 00:34:31,400
But the White Sox knocked him around for six earned.

651
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,079
But if you take that start out, I mean everyone's

652
00:34:35,199 --> 00:34:39,679
everyone's allowed a clunker. He allowed four, five, six, seven

653
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,599
earned in his last four starts. Pretty good, and he's

654
00:34:42,639 --> 00:34:45,199
a better picture at home. Kyle Hendricks has a five

655
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,679
plus ERA on the road, uh, and the Royals have

656
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,280
the better bullpens, So I find it hard to bet

657
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:55,960
against the Royals here, especially after the way they lost yesterday.

658
00:34:57,079 --> 00:35:01,280
I'm going to back Cameron and the Royals here. We'll see.

659
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,920
We'll see on tomorrow's show. Who was right, either Bryan

660
00:35:05,039 --> 00:35:07,280
or myself. But I like the Royals here.

661
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:14,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I'm I'm you know, you both make good points.

662
00:35:14,119 --> 00:35:15,440
So first of all, I just want to say about

663
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,199
Kyle Hendricks. I hope, I hope with Kyle Hendricks retires

664
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:22,320
that he opens like a pitching academy because he has

665
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,360
got to be like one of the last guys right now.

666
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,280
And I think it's gonna come back into favor. I

667
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,719
think you're starting to see guys start to do this more.

668
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,039
But like for a while there, we just had a

669
00:35:32,039 --> 00:35:35,320
bunch of throwers, like guys, guys weren't pitching anymore. They

670
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,760
were just just out there trying to whip the ball

671
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:39,840
in as fast as possible with as much movement, as

672
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:43,199
much spin as possible. And what happened is guys started

673
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,039
to like just get hurt. Careers were ending. So you're

674
00:35:46,079 --> 00:35:49,679
starting to get these guys that like are more Kyle

675
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:54,000
Hendricks esque. But he's certainly the last one from guys

676
00:35:54,079 --> 00:35:56,599
his age, in my opinion, that that really are out

677
00:35:56,599 --> 00:36:02,039
there like pitching from like a cerebral standpoint where everything

678
00:36:02,159 --> 00:36:05,960
is Everything he's doing is is is just trying to

679
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,440
outsmart the hitter. He does not have really have stuff

680
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,320
at this point. He doesn't throw hard, he can't throw hard.

681
00:36:11,519 --> 00:36:14,199
Yet he's still in the league. And Brian's pointing out,

682
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:15,920
like some of the stuff in his stat cast pays

683
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:19,519
being very impressive. That's all brain right there, that's all

684
00:36:19,519 --> 00:36:23,960
his brain. That's all just him being an elite pitcher.

685
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,519
Like I used to think what he was back on,

686
00:36:26,599 --> 00:36:29,039
I mean, you can go back to the twenty sixteen

687
00:36:29,039 --> 00:36:30,840
Cubs when they won the World Series. He was a

688
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,079
part of that team, and I always felt like he

689
00:36:33,519 --> 00:36:36,719
was Greg Maddox esque, and it's really looking like later

690
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,239
in his career. I mean, this was Maddox when he

691
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,599
was like forty one, right, Like, this is like what

692
00:36:41,679 --> 00:36:44,639
he was doing pretty much to stay in the league

693
00:36:44,679 --> 00:36:47,079
and get guys out, and that's what Hendrix has been

694
00:36:47,079 --> 00:36:49,719
able to do so very He's he's been very impressive.

695
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:53,239
He's also been priced as this like bottom option and

696
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,920
he's not that. So again, I haven't really found any

697
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,880
you know, really good reason to go again him at

698
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,199
all this year based on where the market continues to

699
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,880
price him, which which they've done here a little bit. Cameron.

700
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:10,400
So I was on Cameron and the Royals in that

701
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:14,199
in his last start, and he he had nothing and

702
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,360
he hasn't pitched since, so it's it's worth pointing out

703
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,760
that he was skipped. I don't know if it was

704
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,440
just a rest thing, I don't know, but but he

705
00:37:22,599 --> 00:37:25,440
had and he went out there and fought for them

706
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,360
in that start and actually hung around maybe a little

707
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,400
bit longer than you know, I think like most of

708
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,360
those runs he gave up were in the first or

709
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:35,239
second inning, and so credit to him for like doing

710
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,960
his team a solid staying in there, getting through five innings.

711
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,960
But he he had nothing right from the outset, because

712
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,199
in the first inning of that game, he gave up

713
00:37:43,199 --> 00:37:45,000
a couple of laser beams and they happened to go

714
00:37:45,079 --> 00:37:47,079
right at someone got out of the inning, and then

715
00:37:47,119 --> 00:37:48,760
I think he got blown up in the second and

716
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,119
third point is like he he had, you know, I

717
00:37:52,119 --> 00:37:53,840
think the innings are getting up there for him a

718
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:57,599
little bit, and so I wonder if maybe being skipped

719
00:37:57,599 --> 00:38:00,400
and having the extra rest, we see him get back

720
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,679
to the numbers that Tokyo Brandon pointed out, which are

721
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,079
really really good. And this is a guy I've liked

722
00:38:05,159 --> 00:38:08,440
this year as well, so I think I think just

723
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,360
from a standpoint of, like you know, giving a lean

724
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:13,599
out or giving an opinion, I'm not going to go

725
00:38:13,639 --> 00:38:15,800
against either of you guys, I kind of lean toward

726
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,599
the under here, and I don't know what it is yet,

727
00:38:18,639 --> 00:38:20,679
but if you can find a nine and a half,

728
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:22,960
which might be a little bit juiced, I think that

729
00:38:23,119 --> 00:38:26,920
is is very playable, even the under nine, even money

730
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:28,679
or plus one one oh five I'm not sure what

731
00:38:28,679 --> 00:38:30,800
it is, places I'm seeing it even money right here.

732
00:38:31,519 --> 00:38:33,599
Nine's kind of that key number where you're still safe

733
00:38:33,639 --> 00:38:36,119
in a four to four game. So that's what I

734
00:38:36,159 --> 00:38:38,119
would look for. If you can find like an under

735
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,639
nine and a half in this game at like minus

736
00:38:41,639 --> 00:38:43,559
one twenty or less, I think that's a pretty good bet.

737
00:38:43,639 --> 00:38:45,480
And even under nine a plus money, I'm fine with.

738
00:38:45,519 --> 00:38:47,639
Speaker 2: What do you see, Brian, Yeah, it's nine and a

739
00:38:47,679 --> 00:38:49,559
half minus one thirty. If we were one of the

740
00:38:49,559 --> 00:38:53,519
few that are still with ESPN bet Pinnacles got nine

741
00:38:53,559 --> 00:38:56,480
and a half minus one sixteen, so that.

742
00:38:56,199 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 1: That's great bet at that price.

743
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 2: In that regard, at.

744
00:39:00,639 --> 00:39:02,519
Speaker 1: That price, I think that's a really good bet because

745
00:39:02,559 --> 00:39:05,280
I think the rest I think Cameron desperately needed a

746
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,199
week off and they gave it to him. And I'm

747
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:11,719
with you on Hendrix. He's out smarting hitters and the

748
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,400
Royals lineup has not been tough to outsmart this year.

749
00:39:14,679 --> 00:39:17,119
I feel like they almost outsmart themselves half the time

750
00:39:17,199 --> 00:39:20,360
throughout the plate, So I don't just I don't mind

751
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,480
that at all. Under nine and a half at that price,

752
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:24,559
or really any under in this game is the way

753
00:39:24,559 --> 00:39:28,239
I would go. All right, let's move it along. We've

754
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,400
got two legs the parlay locked in. I can guarantee

755
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,719
you mine will be in one of these last two games,

756
00:39:34,039 --> 00:39:38,000
So let's get to it. It is White Sox Twins

757
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,239
Taj Bradley is up at the majors, where he should

758
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:44,320
have been when he got to Minnesota, even though they

759
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:46,679
let him raw at Triple A for a month. Not

760
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,960
really sure why they did that, but he's back with

761
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,480
the big league club and this looks like a potential

762
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:56,280
collection of bullpen arms for the White Sox. Gonna have

763
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,280
to do a little research as Brian talks to see

764
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,599
who might be the bault guy today. But both teams

765
00:40:01,599 --> 00:40:03,519
have used some bullpen and these are not. You know,

766
00:40:03,679 --> 00:40:07,199
this isn't like the deepest of collection of pitchers on

767
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,679
either side. So, Brian Leonard, how are you seeing this one?

768
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,880
White Sox Twins Bradley versus whoever the White Sox decided

769
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,039
to throw out there today. Yeah, let's let it.

770
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 2: According according to the odds logic, it looks like Ellard

771
00:40:19,199 --> 00:40:23,679
is going to get the start. We're looking at Bradley

772
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,559
about a about a one fifty favorite total eight and

773
00:40:26,559 --> 00:40:31,920
a half. Frasier Ellard has pitched thirty four games in

774
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,360
the majors the last two years. He's only started one game,

775
00:40:35,679 --> 00:40:38,800
and I believe that was similar to what he's doing now. Oh,

776
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:40,199
come man, he's only thrown nine.

777
00:40:40,519 --> 00:40:43,079
Speaker 1: Real quick, you guys guess it's Fraser Aller is only

778
00:40:43,119 --> 00:40:44,920
going to throw winning. So it's it's going to be

779
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,840
Jonathan Cannon. It's going to be Canon that is essentially

780
00:40:48,039 --> 00:40:50,159
making the start here. Sorry, I just wanted to point

781
00:40:50,159 --> 00:40:50,400
that out.

782
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,599
Speaker 2: Go ahead, and he's been Kennon fodder for other batteries,

783
00:40:56,199 --> 00:41:00,840
so Ellard's going for the White Sox. Don't find this

784
00:41:01,039 --> 00:41:06,719
game very intriguing, because did you guys, either one of

785
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:10,360
you see the quotes from Todge Bradley off his last start.

786
00:41:12,159 --> 00:41:14,639
Speaker 1: I actually didn't. What was it? No, I'm interested to

787
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:15,840
hear what he said.

788
00:41:16,079 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 2: He came out and said afterwards he pitched. I believe

789
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,400
he pitched a really good game last time out, and

790
00:41:22,679 --> 00:41:26,719
he said it's the first time in his career he

791
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:30,840
has looked and prepared for the opposing batters before the game.

792
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:36,880
What uh? He had been to Tampa Bay and we

793
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:40,719
always talk about Tampa Bay being such a great organization

794
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:45,360
for pitchers. According to Todge Bradley. He has never actually

795
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,559
looked at what the likes and the dislikes are for

796
00:41:48,639 --> 00:41:52,679
the pictures he's facing, and their weaknesses and their strengths.

797
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:54,280
Can you believe that.

798
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 1: Got to be by design the razor. It's got to

799
00:41:59,039 --> 00:42:01,360
be some m I T. Spreadsheet guy that told him

800
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:02,880
not to do that. That's all I can think of.

801
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,280
Speaker 2: And he pitched really well. I can't believe I've got

802
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:07,239
my entire career and.

803
00:42:07,199 --> 00:42:10,679
Speaker 3: I doing this, or he's lying.

804
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,760
Speaker 2: Well, no, I don't think. I don't think he'd be lying.

805
00:42:14,199 --> 00:42:18,360
That's an embarrassing thing to say about yourself. But anyway,

806
00:42:18,639 --> 00:42:20,320
he comes in with a four point eight two ERA

807
00:42:20,599 --> 00:42:23,440
three point eighty expected one point twenty nine whip.

808
00:42:24,039 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 1: You know, he he's.

809
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,559
Speaker 2: Been in the league for three seasons now, He's got

810
00:42:27,599 --> 00:42:29,599
a four point seven to seven ARA one point two

811
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:34,320
nine whip and he's done so pitching in the worst

812
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:38,000
division in Major League Baseball. In being from Cleveland, I'll

813
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:40,760
admit it, the Central is terrible. You look at this

814
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:45,320
year's and only one team has outscored the opposition. It's

815
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:48,360
a bad division and he has not pitched well in it,

816
00:42:49,199 --> 00:42:51,599
and h and he remains in it as he's so

817
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,639
with Minnesota right now, I am curious, and this is

818
00:42:55,679 --> 00:42:58,000
the game I'm going to be watching tonight. I'm curious

819
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,800
to see what Bradley does. Did he finally said, oh,

820
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:02,639
I didn't realize we could do this kind of thing,

821
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:04,960
and now we've found a way. So I would I

822
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:09,239
would think we will see if he's lying or if

823
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:13,360
he has figured something out in this game. That said,

824
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,920
I think the runs will be scored in this one.

825
00:43:16,519 --> 00:43:20,480
You've got two teams that the bullpens are are extremely

826
00:43:23,199 --> 00:43:26,440
worn out right now. Leisures pitched to at the last

827
00:43:26,519 --> 00:43:33,199
three Vassals pitched twenty seven yesterday as Ellert sixteen. So

828
00:43:34,679 --> 00:43:36,519
they've got some guys that are a little bit worn out.

829
00:43:36,559 --> 00:43:42,480
Let's look at the Tampa Bay bullpen or shooting Minnesota

830
00:43:42,519 --> 00:43:45,800
excuse me, Minnesota twins. So they're still used to seeing

831
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:49,760
him in the Tampa Bay uniform. They used their last

832
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:53,639
three guys, Topa, Sands and Thunderbrook yesterday. I don't think

833
00:43:53,679 --> 00:43:55,679
Topa's going to pitch. He pitched on Monday, but the

834
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:58,280
other two should be available, so they're bullpens in a

835
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,679
little bit better shape. So I can't lay this number

836
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:03,920
with Minnesota, because I don't think they're much better than

837
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,199
the White Sox at this point. But it's going to

838
00:44:06,199 --> 00:44:09,199
be interesting to see how Bradley pitches in this game.

839
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:14,760
And yeah, that's I just found that quote amazing, and

840
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:15,960
so we'll see what happens here.

841
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:22,559
Speaker 3: TODs Bradley has faced the White Sox twice in the

842
00:44:22,639 --> 00:44:27,480
last two months, and he's given up eleven earned runs

843
00:44:27,519 --> 00:44:32,039
in six plus innings. These guys have gotten to him hard.

844
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,079
But like Brian said, if that's the first game he

845
00:44:35,119 --> 00:44:38,559
ever checked the opposition, he pitched six to five innings

846
00:44:38,639 --> 00:44:41,760
with one earned so it's pretty good. But Todge Bradley,

847
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,119
in my opinion, is very inconsistent pitcher. I've never really

848
00:44:45,159 --> 00:44:47,840
been a fan of his, and now he's on a

849
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:53,599
team that's basically a sinking ship. White Sox surprisingly not

850
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,599
really known for their power hitting, but I've got them

851
00:44:56,639 --> 00:45:00,840
ranked ten out of thirty teams in current form, so

852
00:45:01,639 --> 00:45:04,159
they're hitting quite well, and I've got the Minnesota bullpen

853
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,519
rink twenty nine out of thirty. Taking a look at

854
00:45:07,599 --> 00:45:09,800
the team totals here, the White Socks three and a

855
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,679
half seems pretty delicious to me. I think they can

856
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,440
get four runs in this game pretty easily. Even if

857
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,840
TODs Bradley has a good game, I wouldn't expect more

858
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,760
than one or two earned runs in five innings, which

859
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,000
will open up four more innings for them to just

860
00:45:25,119 --> 00:45:28,880
tee off on this disgusting bullpen. So I think socks

861
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:30,320
three and a half is a good play here.

862
00:45:33,159 --> 00:45:36,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, my parlay leg will be the over in this

863
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:40,360
game over eight and a half. Jonathan Cannon has been

864
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:44,480
awful at TRIPAA the last month, absolutely terrible. He's gotten

865
00:45:44,599 --> 00:45:48,800
blown up in just about every start. This isn't a

866
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,760
you know, this isn't a reward for him, per se.

867
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,679
This is like the White Sox just saying like, hey,

868
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,559
like we kinda we just need a starter in euro up.

869
00:45:57,920 --> 00:45:59,920
Like it's not like, you know, he's been down a

870
00:46:00,159 --> 00:46:04,559
Charlotte his so here here's his August numbers and one

871
00:46:04,559 --> 00:46:07,480
of these starts, now granted, one of these starts was

872
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:09,280
at the big league level where he got smoked by

873
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:14,679
the Mariners. His August numbers overall eight point five nine ERA.

874
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:19,440
This is in twenty two innings. He's given up thirty hits,

875
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:23,559
twenty one earned runs, He's walked ten batters. He only

876
00:46:23,599 --> 00:46:27,199
has sixteen strikeouts, a three to twenty six batting average against,

877
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,639
and a one point eight two whip. Those are his

878
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:33,480
August numbers. It has not been good. His most recent

879
00:46:33,679 --> 00:46:38,400
start came against Nashville where he got where he gave

880
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:41,840
up eight hits and four innings. So the Twins should

881
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:43,880
be able to get something there. You talked about the

882
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,840
bullpen usage. You're gonna get llered for an inning, you know,

883
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,320
that's fine. I don't think there's any guarantee that he

884
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,639
just goes out and throws a clean inning. And then

885
00:46:51,679 --> 00:46:54,599
on the other side, like even if Bradley pitches, well,

886
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:58,119
the Twins have no relief. They literally no bullpen. They

887
00:46:58,159 --> 00:47:02,000
have no bullpen. They every respectable arm was straded away.

888
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:04,920
So like they have some guys that you could say, okay,

889
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:06,519
like this guy might be with the team next year,

890
00:47:06,559 --> 00:47:09,159
or maybe maybe he could be like a reliable long reliever.

891
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,400
But it's not like there's anyone that you would be like,

892
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:14,800
you know that that can't go out there on a

893
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,599
given day and give up runs. There's zero consistent good

894
00:47:18,639 --> 00:47:22,039
bullpen arms on this team. And yet the total's only

895
00:47:22,079 --> 00:47:24,599
eight and eight and a half. How is that possible?

896
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:25,840
How's it only eight and a half?

897
00:47:26,079 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 2: Right?

898
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,519
Speaker 1: Like for a full game nine innings between these two teams,

899
00:47:29,679 --> 00:47:31,079
and it's only eight and a half. I thought I

900
00:47:31,119 --> 00:47:33,159
thought we were going to see a ten on the

901
00:47:33,199 --> 00:47:35,400
total there. So that'll be my parlay league over eight

902
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,679
and a half q Q up the two to one

903
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,559
final where Bradley throws seven innings of one run ball.

904
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,079
But like other than Todgs Bradley pitching well, which like

905
00:47:44,079 --> 00:47:46,360
you've said, has kind of been hit or miss, there's

906
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:48,360
gonna be runs everywhere else in this game and you

907
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:50,599
only need to get to nine on a day where

908
00:47:50,599 --> 00:47:53,159
there's not much else. I'll throw that in the parlay.

909
00:47:53,199 --> 00:47:57,840
So over eight and a half White Sox twins minus.

910
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 2: Won ten minus minus ten. I incredible. Say this is

911
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,679
a getaway day. Both teams go on the road tomorrow.

912
00:48:06,199 --> 00:48:08,960
That's my only concern. But yeah, I'm surprised to say

913
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:11,000
and half. I it should have been it should have

914
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:12,519
been nine to nine and a half in my opinion,

915
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:16,960
But uh yeah, I got nothing against that other other

916
00:48:17,079 --> 00:48:19,079
than both teams are got to get on a plan

917
00:48:19,119 --> 00:48:20,239
and travel to a different city.

918
00:48:20,519 --> 00:48:23,199
Speaker 1: And the nice part, the nice part about that is

919
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,679
or just like if this if this game is not close,

920
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:30,519
like let's say, I'm not saying it's gonna be a blowout,

921
00:48:30,519 --> 00:48:32,519
but if this game is not close, like let's say

922
00:48:32,559 --> 00:48:35,360
it's four nothing or five nothing, at some point you

923
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,360
can rest the shirt at some bum come in to

924
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,320
finish it up, and they could give up four runs

925
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:40,920
in an inning as well. The only the only way

926
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,280
I think this over doesn't get there is if it's

927
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:47,079
literally like Jonathan Cannon comes in and just randomly has

928
00:48:47,119 --> 00:48:48,840
a great start, and you're looking at like a two

929
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:51,920
to one type game. Five nothing can become nine to

930
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,480
four very quickly in a game like this, because no

931
00:48:54,519 --> 00:48:57,119
one has depth relief arms at this point.

932
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 2: We saw that yesterday Minnesota's cruise around had an easy win.

933
00:49:01,559 --> 00:49:03,079
But pocket I turn around and look and all of

934
00:49:03,119 --> 00:49:04,480
a sudden, the White Socks are taking the lead.

935
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's that is That's kind of the game

936
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:11,880
I'm seeing here. And if but but again, if not,

937
00:49:12,079 --> 00:49:14,519
like if Cannon's just no good, what was the final

938
00:49:14,599 --> 00:49:16,320
yesterday in that game it ended up being a four

939
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:21,800
to three White Sox win. It's probably something like that

940
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:24,800
is probably probably gonna happen again today, or one team

941
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:26,880
is gonna get up so big that it's like seven

942
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:28,960
nothing and then it's seven three. A lot of ways

943
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,320
to get to nine runs here, and that would get

944
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:32,800
you a win in this one, and hopefully it gets

945
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:35,639
us a win for the parlay that's locked in. But

946
00:49:35,639 --> 00:49:38,360
we've got some business to handle first, and that business

947
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:41,440
is probably the game of the day today out in Houston,

948
00:49:41,559 --> 00:49:45,079
the finale of what's been a very entertaining series so far.

949
00:49:45,159 --> 00:49:49,760
Brian Leonard, so Yankees Astros, Major League Baseball, says, we

950
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:52,119
don't care that there's a huge football game tonight that

951
00:49:52,159 --> 00:49:54,480
everyone else is gonna watch. Let's put our best game

952
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:58,360
right up against that at seven forty pm Eastern time.

953
00:50:00,119 --> 00:50:03,519
Own Christian Hobber, it looks like to finish it off.

954
00:50:03,559 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 2: What do you think that was a fun game yesterday

955
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:11,360
unless you're a Yankees fan, really playoff type of atmosphere

956
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:14,079
in Houston. The fans were standing the entire time. We

957
00:50:14,159 --> 00:50:19,239
had talked the day before about the pitch, the pitch

958
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:23,119
throwne and then the catcher hitting the catcher in the chest.

959
00:50:24,079 --> 00:50:26,719
I did read some articles about it, and they really

960
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:30,320
had They went after the pitcher in the in the dugout,

961
00:50:30,599 --> 00:50:33,519
in the locker room. They went after him. They didn't

962
00:50:33,519 --> 00:50:35,000
go after the young catcher.

963
00:50:35,519 --> 00:50:37,679
Speaker 1: So they know he's gone. He's gone at the end

964
00:50:37,679 --> 00:50:38,039
of the year.

965
00:50:38,119 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 3: By the way, teams loved their catchers. The catchers are

966
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:44,519
the most popular guy in the locker room every team.

967
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:48,159
Speaker 1: And they're not gonna They're not resigning frambur and it's

968
00:50:48,199 --> 00:50:50,000
somewhat known, so I have a feeling it's going to

969
00:50:50,039 --> 00:50:52,679
be a long couple of weeks for him as a

970
00:50:52,679 --> 00:50:53,440
part of that team.

971
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 2: It could be, but the team did not act like

972
00:50:56,559 --> 00:50:58,840
it was a divided locker room. They acted like they

973
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:00,880
were out there to play some ball and they did.

974
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,039
It was a great baseball game, regardless of who you

975
00:51:03,119 --> 00:51:06,519
liked in it. Rondon the lefty against Javier the already

976
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:10,920
Rendon's about a one thirty five favorite and a total

977
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:13,599
of eight and a half. And if you watch the

978
00:51:13,639 --> 00:51:16,480
game yesterday, and I hate to continue to harp on

979
00:51:16,559 --> 00:51:20,880
this the Yankees fans, but the Yankees played Yankee baseball.

980
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,119
They hit the home runs, they do that very well.

981
00:51:25,079 --> 00:51:29,440
They run the bases terribly, they played terrible defense, and

982
00:51:29,599 --> 00:51:32,199
it was clear that Houston was the more talented team

983
00:51:32,199 --> 00:51:34,840
when it came to the all around the way they played,

984
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:40,079
very similar to the Phillies and the Brewers. As we're talking,

985
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,800
the line seams to be getting bet up a little bit.

986
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,440
It's eight and a half now minus one twenty for

987
00:51:46,519 --> 00:51:49,679
the most part, one twenty five, so they expect some

988
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:53,679
runs here in Houston, and I could see that happening.

989
00:51:54,159 --> 00:51:57,840
Carlos Rondin Rodin excuse me, three point one eight ERA

990
00:51:58,119 --> 00:52:00,880
three point twenty nine expected one point oh eight whip.

991
00:52:01,599 --> 00:52:03,880
He's been terrific all season long. He's already thrown one

992
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:06,360
hundred and sixty four innings. He's almost up to where

993
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:08,840
he was last year. This guy just I love to

994
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:12,000
have this guy on my team. But if you take

995
00:52:12,039 --> 00:52:16,400
a look at his stat Statcast page, he's pitching, yes,

996
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,280
expected batting average in the ninetieth percentile, with right in

997
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:22,519
the eighty fourth, strike out in the seventy eighth. His

998
00:52:22,599 --> 00:52:25,440
extension is only in the nineteenth percentile, and his walk

999
00:52:25,519 --> 00:52:28,880
rate is in the twenty first. His strikeout to walk

1000
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:33,400
ratio is only sixteen point five sixteen is about league average,

1001
00:52:34,039 --> 00:52:35,880
and you would expect him to be better than now.

1002
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:39,639
Like last year he was eighteen point eight and so

1003
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,400
he's he was still walks too many batters. He's walking

1004
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:46,840
ten a game ten percent this season after really cutting

1005
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:48,920
down on that for the last few years. But he's

1006
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:52,079
back to walking a lot. But I like him. Between

1007
00:52:52,199 --> 00:52:58,639
him and him in there, they've had excellent seasons. Christian

1008
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:01,360
Xavier just coming back. He has not pitched a lot

1009
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:03,679
in twenty twenty three. He had one hundred and sixty

1010
00:53:03,679 --> 00:53:06,800
two innings last year because I'm injury thirty four point

1011
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:10,360
two and now it's sixteen right now, So obviously he

1012
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:13,360
hasn't thrown enough innings for the statas page to light up.

1013
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:17,559
But overall, most of his stuff is pretty good expected ARA,

1014
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,239
expected batting, the average barrel percentage, but his walk rate

1015
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:24,599
is bad, his ground ball percentage is bad, his extension

1016
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,960
is bad. Comes in three point three at ERA two

1017
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:30,679
point seven three expected one point one to three whip.

1018
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:35,159
He's a fly ball pitcher, and I think the Yankees

1019
00:53:35,159 --> 00:53:37,400
can get to him here. I prefer the Yankee side

1020
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:40,519
in this game. I think the Yankees team total, let's

1021
00:53:40,559 --> 00:53:43,159
take a look at that. Maybe the way to go here.

1022
00:53:43,519 --> 00:53:45,039
It's at four and a half. He can get it

1023
00:53:45,039 --> 00:53:47,239
from basically even money, so they can score five runs

1024
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:50,480
to get a victory, and I think that could possibly

1025
00:53:50,559 --> 00:53:53,800
happen here. Take a look at the bullpen for Houston.

1026
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:59,920
They're already dealing with a bullpen that's really worn out.

1027
00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:03,239
They've already got the best reliever, possibly the best reliever

1028
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:08,119
in baseball on the DL or the IL as they

1029
00:54:08,119 --> 00:54:12,480
call it. This year. They got to bray you who

1030
00:54:12,519 --> 00:54:15,599
pitched thirty pitches last night. Okert has pitched to it

1031
00:54:15,639 --> 00:54:18,280
the last three days. In fact, the last two days

1032
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:22,039
he's pitched. Kings pitched to it the last three and

1033
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:25,599
Orcs pitched to it the last three. So they're running

1034
00:54:25,599 --> 00:54:29,000
into some problems in the bullpen there after a bray

1035
00:54:29,039 --> 00:54:32,159
you throw us thirty yesterday and he really struggled to

1036
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:34,719
be able to do that. That's what it let the

1037
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:37,800
Yankees back into the game. I have concerns about the

1038
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:41,719
Houston bullpen in this one. I like the Yankees, and

1039
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:43,440
I think the best way to play that is for

1040
00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:46,599
them to score five runs and you get that victory.

1041
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:48,400
I think it's going to be a higher scoring game

1042
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:51,039
with those bullpens in there, so I'll play the Yankees

1043
00:54:51,039 --> 00:54:51,840
team total in this.

1044
00:54:53,519 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 3: Guys, go to wajestalk dot com, go to our pages

1045
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,239
and see the free plays we have up fun of

1046
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:03,760
plenty uh and we also would appreciate if you left

1047
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:06,280
a comment on the replay of this video and leave

1048
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:09,599
a like for us show wager Talk that you still

1049
00:55:09,679 --> 00:55:14,679
like baseball and as much as we do. Again, I

1050
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,960
have to go against Brian, not not directly against Brian,

1051
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:20,320
but I like the under in this game. And there's

1052
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:25,239
a couple of reasons why I think that Rodin has

1053
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:27,679
been pitching excellent. If you look at his numbers, they're

1054
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:30,840
they're almost as good as Cameron's numbers. They're they're like

1055
00:55:31,599 --> 00:55:34,760
really good, a one to oh eight whip. Who wouldn't

1056
00:55:35,119 --> 00:55:37,880
who wouldn't like that? At this point in the season

1057
00:55:38,639 --> 00:55:42,679
against the Astros, his numbers are mediocre. But I think

1058
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:45,639
this season he's he's pitching better than he has in

1059
00:55:45,679 --> 00:55:48,960
past seasons. I think I don't think his past history

1060
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:51,559
against this team matters quite as much. And the Astro

1061
00:55:51,639 --> 00:55:53,679
has been a little bit of a funk at the plate,

1062
00:55:55,440 --> 00:56:00,000
not looking like a playoff team. Recently showing some good signs,

1063
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:05,199
but overall they're slumping a little bit. And although Javier

1064
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:10,679
has had some problems since coming back this season, in

1065
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:13,519
his history, he's dominated these Yankees, I mean sixty one

1066
00:56:13,559 --> 00:56:16,199
at bats against in a one to eighty average six

1067
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:19,800
ninety oh ps. I think under in this game is

1068
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:22,599
the way to go here. Eight and a half seems

1069
00:56:22,679 --> 00:56:25,840
a little high to me. This looks like a four

1070
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:28,320
to three kind of game to me. Even if like

1071
00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:31,760
Brian can win his two, the Yankees can score their five,

1072
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:34,119
but I don't think the Astros are going to score

1073
00:56:34,159 --> 00:56:37,800
three or four and kill the bets. So under would

1074
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:39,480
be the way I would go here. I haven't played

1075
00:56:39,519 --> 00:56:41,800
it yet, but if I did, that's how I would go.

1076
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 1: Because we went game to game. I haven't really been

1077
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,159
in the chat as much as usual, but we got

1078
00:56:48,199 --> 00:56:50,039
to get the chat involved before the end of the show.

1079
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:53,599
Fortune not I think. I don't know if I said

1080
00:56:53,599 --> 00:56:56,199
that correctly, says is it a good idea to fade

1081
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:59,559
Jimmy cross up. I'm assuming that that's Ramber Valdez, who

1082
00:56:59,559 --> 00:57:03,239
we started the segment off with the rest of the season, well,

1083
00:57:03,639 --> 00:57:06,480
he gets priced as a premium option, so you know,

1084
00:57:06,679 --> 00:57:09,199
it's not the worst thought to think about doing that,

1085
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:11,760
because I feel like he does kind of get priced

1086
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:15,400
as one of their top pitchers. So I would say, like, obviously,

1087
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:18,679
take everything case by case. But I don't think it's

1088
00:57:18,719 --> 00:57:21,360
a terrible thought to like, maybe you know, have that

1089
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:23,480
in the back of your mind next time he comes

1090
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:25,480
around to start. As far as this game is concerned,

1091
00:57:26,159 --> 00:57:28,679
I said, I want to find a spot to about

1092
00:57:28,679 --> 00:57:32,719
the Yankees in this series. I think that I don't

1093
00:57:32,719 --> 00:57:34,280
think that this is the worst spot to do it.

1094
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:36,920
I ultimately, I don't know if I'll end up making

1095
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:39,079
a bet on the Yankees in the in this series

1096
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:41,239
and I'll just have to, like, you know, let it

1097
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:44,000
go because the price was a little bit high here.

1098
00:57:44,079 --> 00:57:47,320
But I guess my only concern is, like, there was

1099
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:49,880
a point in time last night where the Yankees were

1100
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:51,840
just kind of chilling. They were up three to nothing.

1101
00:57:52,119 --> 00:57:54,880
They probably took a look at that out of town scoreboard,

1102
00:57:55,199 --> 00:57:57,960
saw the Reds were up five nothing, probably feeling pretty

1103
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:01,159
good about themselves. As I, as I said yesterday, I

1104
00:58:01,199 --> 00:58:04,360
thought that they had some real momentum going to potentially

1105
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:07,719
chase down the Blue Jays. And what ended up transpiring, well,

1106
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:09,400
I took a loss with Reds plus one and a

1107
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:12,719
half after having that five to nothing lead, they completely imploded.

1108
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:15,679
Blue Jays got the win, and the Yankees choked away

1109
00:58:15,679 --> 00:58:17,840
a game where they had a multi run lead lose

1110
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:20,679
eight to seven, So a little bit of a gut

1111
00:58:20,679 --> 00:58:23,679
punch right there. I'm interested to see how they respond

1112
00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:28,039
from that. Again, I think I do think I prefer

1113
00:58:28,119 --> 00:58:30,000
Radona and the Yankees in this spot, and that was

1114
00:58:30,039 --> 00:58:34,039
always sort of my mindset going into this series was

1115
00:58:34,039 --> 00:58:37,320
that the Yankees would take this series. So based on

1116
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:39,159
everything I've kind of said, because we've talked about this

1117
00:58:39,239 --> 00:58:41,480
game every day for the past three days, so the

1118
00:58:42,039 --> 00:58:45,159
culmination of everything we've talked about, what would put me

1119
00:58:45,239 --> 00:58:47,159
on the Yankees here, it could only put me on

1120
00:58:47,199 --> 00:58:50,320
the Yankees here, because I did say on Tuesday I

1121
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:52,079
felt like this was the I felt like they would

1122
00:58:52,079 --> 00:58:54,320
win this series. Want to find a spot to bet

1123
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:56,480
them in this series. So far, they now split the

1124
00:58:56,480 --> 00:58:58,840
first two games of the series, so I could only

1125
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:01,440
be on the Yanks. But man, the way that those

1126
00:59:01,559 --> 00:59:04,519
two games played out last night was not great for

1127
00:59:04,599 --> 00:59:06,960
this Yankees team, and I'll be interested to see how

1128
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,920
they respond to that. I'm not sure I'll have any

1129
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:13,719
part of it, but I'll be looking the rest of

1130
00:59:13,719 --> 00:59:15,440
the day to see if I can talk myself into

1131
00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:18,119
a Yankees play because it's probably the only way I'm

1132
00:59:18,159 --> 00:59:22,639
involved in Major League Baseball today, so lean semi strongly

1133
00:59:22,719 --> 00:59:26,079
to the Yankees there for me. All Right, we've reached

1134
00:59:26,119 --> 00:59:27,679
the end of the show. We did it today, all

1135
00:59:27,719 --> 00:59:31,039
six games, got to them in an hour, timed it

1136
00:59:31,039 --> 00:59:33,719
out kind of perfectly. Today, got there right at the

1137
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:37,880
hour mark. We have our three teamer locked in, so

1138
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:41,000
let's read it off. I'll promo myself real quick. I

1139
00:59:41,199 --> 00:59:44,760
have nothing to sell for baseball to on Thursday. I

1140
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:46,960
doubt I'll have a client play for baseball, but I

1141
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:48,840
do have a five percent NFL and I went four

1142
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:51,280
to zero in the NFL preseason, If that means anything

1143
00:59:51,320 --> 00:59:53,800
to you. I'm gonna try to roll some of that

1144
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:57,519
NFL preseason profit into Sunday. There's one game I really like,

1145
00:59:57,599 --> 00:59:59,760
might be the only NFL game I bet all week,

1146
01:00:00,199 --> 01:00:02,559
but I do like that when it's up my page

1147
01:00:02,599 --> 01:00:06,199
TV said he's got stuff up. Brian's been extremely hot

1148
01:00:06,239 --> 01:00:08,639
over the last God, it's been a while now. Brian

1149
01:00:09,119 --> 01:00:09,719
running good.

1150
01:00:10,079 --> 01:00:12,559
Speaker 2: Number two, the last three days, number one, the last seven,

1151
01:00:12,639 --> 01:00:16,760
number one, the last month. We've talked about when football

1152
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:19,760
season comes, that's the best time to bet baseball, and

1153
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:21,559
that's been working on great We're twelve and three on

1154
01:00:21,639 --> 01:00:24,440
our last fifteen four stars and bread in Major League baseball,

1155
01:00:24,519 --> 01:00:26,480
so good time to jump on board.

1156
01:00:28,159 --> 01:00:30,559
Speaker 1: Rest assured I will be on. I will be betting

1157
01:00:30,599 --> 01:00:32,760
minor league baseball today as I do almost every day.

1158
01:00:33,679 --> 01:00:37,639
I cashed with the Salt Lake Bees yesterday. Nice little

1159
01:00:37,679 --> 01:00:41,239
easy winner for me last night. That'll be what will

1160
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:44,280
keep me entertained today. What can keep you entertained today

1161
01:00:44,719 --> 01:00:46,639
is this three team parlay which I'm going to recap

1162
01:00:46,679 --> 01:00:49,840
here to close out the show. Tokyo Brandon Raise minus

1163
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:55,079
one sixty Brian Leonard Angels plus one thirty five, bringing

1164
01:00:55,079 --> 01:00:57,159
our parlay odds up again like he did the other day.

1165
01:00:57,239 --> 01:01:00,199
Nice outright winner for you. I think it was maybe

1166
01:01:00,199 --> 01:01:03,039
Monday or Tuesday with the Orioles that helped us cash

1167
01:01:03,079 --> 01:01:06,079
some nice odds there. And then I'm gonna go with

1168
01:01:06,079 --> 01:01:08,440
the total White Sox Twins over eight and a half.

1169
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:13,159
That parlay place plus six twenty nine. Obviously could be

1170
01:01:13,199 --> 01:01:16,199
different based on your book. Shop around for the best odds,

1171
01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:20,360
but one more time, that is Raise full game, Angels

1172
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,480
full game money line, White Sox Twins full game over

1173
01:01:23,519 --> 01:01:26,119
eight and a half plus six twenty nine TV. Did

1174
01:01:26,159 --> 01:01:28,400
you have some closing thoughts for us before we head out?

1175
01:01:29,199 --> 01:01:31,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have an MLB play up. I'm number two

1176
01:01:31,679 --> 01:01:34,159
the last thirty days and I'm number one in twenty

1177
01:01:34,239 --> 01:01:38,599
twenty five. So we're all doing good. So go to

1178
01:01:38,639 --> 01:01:41,159
wagertalk dot com see what we have. All three of

1179
01:01:41,239 --> 01:01:43,880
us usually put up a free player every day, so

1180
01:01:44,119 --> 01:01:46,079
it's worth your ten seconds to go check it out.

1181
01:01:46,119 --> 01:01:48,280
If you didn't get our plays from this show.

1182
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 1: I'll even go one step further as to say, like,

1183
01:01:52,000 --> 01:01:54,039
if I do play Major League Baseball today, which is

1184
01:01:54,039 --> 01:01:57,039
a likelihood is quite slim, I will put it up

1185
01:01:57,039 --> 01:01:59,440
for free I page. If I don't, I'll put my

1186
01:01:59,639 --> 01:02:02,119
strong sort of lean up for free, so that will

1187
01:02:02,159 --> 01:02:05,199
be in the free play section. Since I'm since I'm

1188
01:02:05,199 --> 01:02:07,079
trying to get you to buy the NFL play and

1189
01:02:07,119 --> 01:02:07,639
we have k.

1190
01:02:11,199 --> 01:02:12,400
Speaker 3: Kb O is half price.

1191
01:02:13,599 --> 01:02:15,039
Speaker 1: That is nice that they let us do that. You

1192
01:02:15,119 --> 01:02:19,039
have always KBO, always half price, and we're we're getting

1193
01:02:19,039 --> 01:02:21,519
down to it with the KBO right now. We're in

1194
01:02:21,599 --> 01:02:27,679
we're in make territory, l g K. They've been coming

1195
01:02:27,679 --> 01:02:29,360
through for you a lot lately. I feel like I

1196
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:31,880
feel like every day you're on LG every day they win.

1197
01:02:32,079 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 3: So but your KT yesterday was a great call. Adham

1198
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:40,320
that was on the Rockies over was also a great call,

1199
01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:44,119
so you both had I was. I had a crap

1200
01:02:44,239 --> 01:02:45,480
day yesterday.

1201
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:45,239
Speaker 2: So.

1202
01:02:47,199 --> 01:02:50,360
Speaker 1: It's good. I also on the same day I had,

1203
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:52,760
I guess a nice win on KT. I managed to

1204
01:02:53,079 --> 01:02:54,760
have a five nothing lead with a plus one and

1205
01:02:54,760 --> 01:02:57,159
a half and it wasn't even close. Wasn't even close

1206
01:02:57,199 --> 01:02:59,639
to a win. Gave a thirteen run so it happened.

1207
01:03:00,559 --> 01:03:04,400
Good luck today, enjoy the enjoy the Cowboys Eagles game

1208
01:03:04,559 --> 01:03:06,960
if that's your thing tonight, and we'll be back nine

1209
01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:10,840
in the morning tomorrow, nine IM Eastern to finish off

1210
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:12,760
the week for more total bases. We'll see you guys

1211
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:12,920
then