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<v Speaker 1>A couple of weeks ago on X there was a

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<v Speaker 1>kerfuffle that broke out after a professor named Eric Kaufman

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<v Speaker 1>posted a tweet about an article he did for Unheard

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<v Speaker 1>dot com and in the article, he asserts that trans

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<v Speaker 1>identification among young people especially is dropping. Now, this was

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<v Speaker 1>a statistical analysis and it created quite the food for

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<v Speaker 1>all and it took me two weeks to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>pin down our schedules because he is in the UK

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<v Speaker 1>in London, and I, of course am in Denver, Colorado.

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<v Speaker 1>But this weekend we were able to connect and this

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<v Speaker 1>is our chat with Professor Eric Kaufman. Hey, everybody, So

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<v Speaker 1>last week I read an article at unheard dot com

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<v Speaker 1>by a guy named Eric Kaufman. He's a professor and

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<v Speaker 1>he wrote a I mean a tweet that he probably

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<v Speaker 1>thought was like every other tweet he sent out, and

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<v Speaker 1>it had to do with the rate of trans or

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<v Speaker 1>non binary identification falling in this country. I'm guessing that

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<v Speaker 1>he was not expecting it to catch fire like it

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<v Speaker 1>did and created so much debate on X and I

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<v Speaker 1>have to say not just your a duty head debate,

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<v Speaker 1>like real legitimate debate back and forth about the veracity

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<v Speaker 1>of this information and how you interpreted it and all

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<v Speaker 1>of this stuff. But I decided to reach out and

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<v Speaker 1>Professor Eric Kaffman joins me now to talk about. First

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<v Speaker 1>of all, let's start with the data and then I

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to get too far into the weeds about

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<v Speaker 1>the statistical stuff because it's kind of boring for the radio.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not gonna not gonna lie, and I'm gonna share

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<v Speaker 1>your substack that you did on the data analysis so

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<v Speaker 1>people can do a deeper dive if they want on

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<v Speaker 1>my blog so they can link to it there. But

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, Professor Coppman, wait, welcome to the show.

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<v Speaker 2>Great to be here, Mandy, and I'm joining you from England.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Canadian originally, but i've lived in London a long time.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, welcome to Denver. It's lovely here right now, as

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure it might not be in London today, but

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<v Speaker 1>we'll find out. First of all, give my audience a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of your background so we have an idea

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<v Speaker 1>of where you're coming from on this.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I'm a professor of politics or political science at

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<v Speaker 4>the University of Buckingham here in England, and I'm.

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<v Speaker 2>A social scientist.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm very interested in exploring questions that are in some

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<v Speaker 4>ways difficult to explore amongst mainstream academics. And so I

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<v Speaker 4>have a center at Buckingham which has some sort of

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<v Speaker 4>free speech tradition for heterodox social science.

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<v Speaker 2>I've been interested also.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm a quantitative data analyst, and I'm always interested in

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<v Speaker 3>the latest wave from the Foundation for Individual Rights and

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<v Speaker 3>Expressions annual undergraduate surveys, which are absolutely massive they reach.

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<v Speaker 3>The last wave was almost seventy thousand undergraduates, mainly aged

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<v Speaker 3>eighteen to twenty two, across two hundred and fifty of

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<v Speaker 3>the mainly higher ranking universities in the US. And I

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<v Speaker 3>also look at some other surveys that are smaller, but

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<v Speaker 3>where most of the target audience or a large chunk

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<v Speaker 3>of it is is captured by the surveys, which isn't

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<v Speaker 3>usual for surveys.

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<v Speaker 2>And I was just comparing these three sources.

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<v Speaker 3>And I have had an interest in cultural trends among

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<v Speaker 3>young people for a long time, like Gene Twenge, who

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<v Speaker 3>of course sort of came in after my tweets and

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<v Speaker 3>found something very similar. The long and the short of

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<v Speaker 3>it is, I sort of noticed that while there was

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<v Speaker 3>this very pronounced rise and fall particularly this decline pattern

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<v Speaker 3>in the share of young people who say they are

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<v Speaker 3>neither male nor female, that is, identifying as non binary,

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<v Speaker 3>and that has dropped in half more or less in

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<v Speaker 3>this massive sample of over fifty thousand a year from

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<v Speaker 3>the fire data, but also in the smaller but higher

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<v Speaker 3>targeted where you're getting a higher share of your target pool.

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<v Speaker 3>So the Andover Phillips elite prep high school near Boston,

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<v Speaker 3>and then the university, the Brown University student surveys, they're

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<v Speaker 3>all saying the same thing, telling the same story, which

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<v Speaker 3>was of a dramatic decline in non binary identification. Now

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<v Speaker 3>we can come into this question of the relationship doing

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<v Speaker 3>trans and non binary, which is I would argue very close.

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<v Speaker 2>But that's a whole other question. I think it's arguing.

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<v Speaker 4>More or less that trans has declined a lot amongst

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<v Speaker 4>young people.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's interesting because the Andover is obviously a very

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<v Speaker 1>elite prep school, and then you have Brown that's not

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<v Speaker 1>exactly a slouchy university. And in my experience, and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>you have not observed this, or perhaps you have children

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<v Speaker 1>of high achieving parents seem to have these trans identities

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<v Speaker 1>at a much higher rate. Look at Hollywood, you have

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<v Speaker 1>Hollywood actresses who say all four of their children are trans,

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<v Speaker 1>which is statistically ridiculous, but that's where we are, right,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, so it seemed to me that the surveys

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<v Speaker 1>and andover and brown may hold more weight just from

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<v Speaker 1>my I own observations in my mind, because you're dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with the children mostly of elites. This does not seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be a problem for people in poverty who are

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<v Speaker 1>worried about how they're going to eat the next day.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think, well, I don't know, it's not as

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<v Speaker 4>clear a cut as that, because I mean, you're right

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<v Speaker 4>that the political trendiness of these things tends to break

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<v Speaker 4>on the elite campuses and prep schools first. However, it

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<v Speaker 4>is quite astounding to see that in fact, trans and

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<v Speaker 4>also queer sexuality or bisexuality sort of nonconformists, so in

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<v Speaker 4>other words, not gay or straight, but these other sexualities.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, they've gone through the same rise and fall

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<v Speaker 4>pattern in the data. Doesn't seem as though the elite

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<v Speaker 4>are experiencing this more than people from a lower social

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<v Speaker 4>class background. So it looks as though this is cutting

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<v Speaker 4>across all class and in fact, a lot of the

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<v Speaker 4>data even shows it's somewhat more likely from a lower

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<v Speaker 4>class background that you will identify relay. Yeah, which surprised me,

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<v Speaker 4>but it is really striking, and it's there also for

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<v Speaker 4>bisexual and queer, and so it's I don't think this

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<v Speaker 4>is just an upper class phenomenon.

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<v Speaker 1>No, Well, I would use I have a sixteen year

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<v Speaker 1>old daughter and at her high school, we're in an

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<v Speaker 1>upper you know, we're in a more affluent school district,

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<v Speaker 1>and a lot of her friends are from more affluent families.

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<v Speaker 1>Not all, you know for sure, but every one of

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<v Speaker 1>my daughter's friends identify somewhere on the queer spectrum right now.

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<v Speaker 1>None of them are actually engaging in same sex relationships,

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<v Speaker 1>but they identify on the queer spectrum because it's celebrated

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<v Speaker 1>in schools, and if you want to be part of

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<v Speaker 1>the in crowd, then you've got to have some kind

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<v Speaker 1>of rainbow stripe, right, you can't just be a normal kid.

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<v Speaker 1>So I would be thrilled because I just think it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's challenging to be a teenager anyway, right, It was

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<v Speaker 1>challenging when you were a teenager, challenging what I was,

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<v Speaker 1>and now we have thrown this gender sexuality stew at

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<v Speaker 1>these kids and forcing them to sort of stake a

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<v Speaker 1>claim in order to belong instead of it being authentic, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And I think it's damaging, honestly to the gay movement.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh, I totally agree with you on that. And there

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<v Speaker 4>are more and more gay people who are really upset

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<v Speaker 4>about trends and also particularly the surgery aspect and kind

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<v Speaker 4>of fixing, so called fixing kids who are gay, making

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<v Speaker 4>them making them a different sex. But I think that

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<v Speaker 4>where I think what I think is going on is

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<v Speaker 4>certainly those who identify as politically liberal or ideologically liberal

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<v Speaker 4>are more considerably more likely to identify as trends and queer.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think what I would say is where.

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<v Speaker 3>You have a school environment that is very kind of liberal, there,

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<v Speaker 3>you're going to get higher identification. So I think that's

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<v Speaker 3>the big difference, not so much the last background. So

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<v Speaker 3>you could have somebody who's from a you know, whose

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<v Speaker 3>family is relatively poor, the father is a librarian, and

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<v Speaker 3>the mother maybe works in the post, I don't know,

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<v Speaker 3>but as long as they're liberal, there's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>a higher chance that, you know, the kid identifies as

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<v Speaker 3>trans or queer or one of these other identities.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, that does seem to be a pattern. But

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<v Speaker 2>what is really interesting.

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<v Speaker 3>I thought, and one thing I think that's occurred. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>when these things came off social media and off campus

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<v Speaker 3>in the twenty tens, mid twenty tens, you had everybody

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<v Speaker 3>talking about trans and queer at the same time as

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<v Speaker 3>they were talking about you know, white privilege. Yeah, some

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<v Speaker 3>of the woke terminology.

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<v Speaker 4>What seems to happen have happened to over is these

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<v Speaker 4>things have now decoupled to a certain extent. So for example,

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<v Speaker 4>whether we look at red state campuses or blue state campuses,

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<v Speaker 4>they show the same trend I mean, blue state campuses

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<v Speaker 4>and in fact liberals as a whole were more likely

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<v Speaker 4>to identify as trends were queer, so they were always

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<v Speaker 4>higher than the conservatives. But there was a certain level

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<v Speaker 4>of it even amongst conservative students and even on red

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<v Speaker 4>state campuses.

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<v Speaker 2>And in both cases we've seen a big drop off.

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<v Speaker 3>So on the bluest of blue campuses, the Oberlins, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>there's been a massive.

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<v Speaker 4>Decline in you know, like twenty point decline in the

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<v Speaker 4>share of non binary at Oberlin in the last two years.

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<v Speaker 4>So even in these very very liberal environments, it's become

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<v Speaker 4>a lot less fashionable. So I don't think it is

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<v Speaker 4>connected necessarily to political shifts, even though you're right that

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<v Speaker 4>somebody who comes from a more liberal background is going

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<v Speaker 4>to be more likely to identify this way.

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<v Speaker 1>I've been speculating about why this drop might have occurred.

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<v Speaker 1>I've been spitballing myself since I read your tweet, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's maybe a few things in motion here.

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<v Speaker 1>One is that fads rise and fides fads fade, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So that's I think that's a choke of it. But

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<v Speaker 1>I also think that the amount of information that is

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<v Speaker 1>getting out now by d transitioners who are talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the permanent, long lifelong effects that they are now dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with because of their transitions, their medical transitions, I do

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<v Speaker 1>think people are more knowledgeable about what the negative ramifications

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<v Speaker 1>could be. And it doesn't seem like, yeah, I can

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<v Speaker 1>get a piercing and.

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<v Speaker 2>It'll close up.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's far different now, and I do think

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<v Speaker 1>that that maybe sort of factoring into it. Have you

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<v Speaker 1>done any sort of introspection about why you think this

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<v Speaker 1>is Yeah, I mean.

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<v Speaker 2>It's really difficult.

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<v Speaker 3>One thing we know is that over the last two

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<v Speaker 3>three years, public opinion has turned against the transactivist position

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<v Speaker 3>that people born males should have access to women's sports

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<v Speaker 3>and women's spaces, and you know, gender surgery for reminders

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<v Speaker 3>and all of that stuff has become less popular and

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<v Speaker 3>substantially less popular, and that's true in Britain's well, and

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<v Speaker 3>so there's been a turn against in public opinion, including

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<v Speaker 3>amongst young people. Now, what is not so clear, it's

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<v Speaker 3>hard to know, is that part of the same trend.

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<v Speaker 3>That is, because it's become you know, politically less popular

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<v Speaker 3>to advocate for the transactivist position and gender ideology, has

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<v Speaker 3>that had a knock on effect on how people identify,

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<v Speaker 3>how young people identify, I mean, that could be what's

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<v Speaker 3>going on. Gene Twinkie's analysis was quite interesting because she

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<v Speaker 3>did this, I mean, I also looked at generations and

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<v Speaker 3>found the same pattern that the youngest generation were less

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<v Speaker 3>trands than the older let's just say, the older gen Zers,

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<v Speaker 3>who are aged twenty two, the seniors were a bit

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<v Speaker 3>more likely to identify as trands than the freshmen.

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<v Speaker 2>She found the same thing even more dramatically.

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<v Speaker 3>So it seems like the newest, the youngest people, newest generation,

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<v Speaker 3>if you want to call it, that are falling away

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<v Speaker 3>from this more so, but I think it looks to

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<v Speaker 3>me like a fashion that's kind of gone out of

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<v Speaker 3>It's gone out of fashion. Exactly why that is is

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<v Speaker 3>very difficult for me, because it doesn't look like these

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<v Speaker 3>young people are moving to the right, are becoming more

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<v Speaker 3>religious necessarily, but they've they've stepped away from the non

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<v Speaker 3>conforming gender and sexual identities to a large extent.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>I got to tell you, I I you know, we

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<v Speaker 1>talk a lot about this, and I am one of

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<v Speaker 1>those people who is loud and verbal about not saying

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<v Speaker 1>that children should not have access to these surgeries. And

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<v Speaker 1>to me, it's incredibly sad because, as I've been saying

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<v Speaker 1>for years, part of this is a fad. Part of

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<v Speaker 1>this is social contagion. I absolutely believe that part of

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<v Speaker 1>this is social contagion. But it is going to have

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<v Speaker 1>lifelong negative impacts on people who are just struggling with

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<v Speaker 1>their mental health. And that's not to say trans people

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<v Speaker 1>don't exist, That's not what I'm saying at all. But

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<v Speaker 1>I'm saying that we swept up all of these other

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<v Speaker 1>people who just needed therapy and a lot of it,

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe some help and assistance to sort of bring

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<v Speaker 1>their their you know, disconcerted nature together and we've medicalized people,

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<v Speaker 1>and I find that very depressing. I do want to

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<v Speaker 1>ask you something that's not directly about this story, but

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<v Speaker 1>what must it be like to find out that you're

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<v Speaker 1>a right wing professor after a tweet gets six million

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<v Speaker 1>views and people are coming to attack you because they

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<v Speaker 1>don't like the outcome of your data.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, Mandy, I have to say, because I aren't kind

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<v Speaker 4>of already out as more or less.

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<v Speaker 3>A conservative professor, I've been used to this kind of

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<v Speaker 3>thing in in my previous university. I got it pretty

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<v Speaker 3>heavily during the Greater Wokening, so that on its own

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't really bother me too much. It was interesting to

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<v Speaker 3>see the hit pieces in the attack lines, and then

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<v Speaker 3>to see that once the sort of attack line seemed

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<v Speaker 3>to not be working where the pivot was so one

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<v Speaker 3>of the pivots was okay, they tried to go after

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<v Speaker 3>me for you know, not using the statistical tool of

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<v Speaker 3>waiting my data. Now, once that looked the guy, the

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<v Speaker 3>person who sort of attacked me for that, once they

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<v Speaker 3>are sort of graphs were looked at more closely, it

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<v Speaker 3>was obvious that that attack line wasn't going to work.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the other pivots, however.

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<v Speaker 4>Is to say, oh, well, but the reason this is

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<v Speaker 4>happening is because of DeSantis and.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump and you know, the discrimination.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's creating a hostile environment for people to be trans.

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<v Speaker 3>So they're back in the closet again, and that's what's

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<v Speaker 3>going on, and it's not about the fashion.

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<v Speaker 2>And that kind of prompted.

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<v Speaker 3>Me to sort of do another tweet thread where I

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<v Speaker 3>kind of said, you know, it is kind of interesting

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<v Speaker 3>because if you look at this fire data, people who

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<v Speaker 3>identify as non binary are actually more open.

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<v Speaker 4>About they feel freer to talk about transgender issues than

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<v Speaker 4>everybody else, and especially conservatives, they self censor less than

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<v Speaker 4>the average student.

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<v Speaker 2>There's absolutely no evidence.

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<v Speaker 4>That there was a major shift in twenty between twenty

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<v Speaker 4>twenty four and twenty and twenty five.

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<v Speaker 2>It was just a continuation of what was going on before.

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<v Speaker 3>So effectively, there's zero evidence there's a chillier climate to

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<v Speaker 3>be trends on campus, you know, on these very liberal overall,

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<v Speaker 3>the average campus is about five you know, fifty percent

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<v Speaker 3>liberal twenty percent conservative.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think that argument really doesn't hold water at all.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor Eric Kaufman teaches at the University at Birmingham. I

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<v Speaker 1>saw the greatest bar fight of my life in Birmingham

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<v Speaker 1>one time, playing at a snooker hall. It was quite

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<v Speaker 1>spectacular and just like you'd see in the movie. So

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<v Speaker 1>I hope you get to see your your bar fight

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<v Speaker 1>soon in Birmingham, maybe not at the university. Professor Kaufman,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for the time. I'm sharing both

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<v Speaker 1>the sub stack that you did sort of to address

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<v Speaker 1>these statistical accusations because as I said, it's it's very dense.

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<v Speaker 1>No way we could translate that on the radio, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's easy to read if you want to understand kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a deeper dive of what Professor Coffman was talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'll also share your X handles so people can

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<v Speaker 1>follow you on X as well, because there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of good information there. But I very much appreciate your

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<v Speaker 1>time today and.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been a pleasure. Thanks very much.