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Speaker 1: All right, general, I think we're gonna jump right in

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and uh when you're ready.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I think we're ready my hair, Okay.

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Speaker 3: Right, I go to the same barber you do. So

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brothers and sisters, you know you are really not that.

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Speaker 2: Far from the farm workers.

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Speaker 4: There are a lot of people who think we can

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relax because population growth is projected to level off. What

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you got to remember is it's projected to level off

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adding more people than we're alive when the entire planet

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when I was born.

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Speaker 1: It's the Ricochet Podcast with Steve Hayward in California, Charles C. W.

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Cook in Florida, and today our very special guest is

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h R.

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Speaker 3: McMaster. Let's have ourselves a podcast.

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Speaker 2: They wanted to put Chuck Norrise on not Rushmore, but

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the granite wasn't tough enough Coors beer. I thought, you know,

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this is pretty funny.

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Speaker 1: Welcome everybody to the Ricochet Podcast, number seven and eighty one.

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It's Steve Hayward sitting in the host chair for James

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Lex today, joined by Charles Cook in Jacksonville, Florida, and

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I'm coming to you from Malibu, California. So, boy, have

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we got the two coastal paradises covered.

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Speaker 5: And the rest of the country. I'm afraid I just

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don't feel sorry for you going through winter, going through

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snow and slush and rain and gray skies.

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Speaker 1: Right right, So I am going to begin the show

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today with noting the passings of this week, which include

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the late great Paul Irlik.

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Speaker 3: Say more about him in a moment. All the successors

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in I Ronnie.

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Speaker 1: Leadership seem to be dying very quickly, and news out

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here Friday morning that Chuck Norris has passed away, which

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is going to present a challenge to the mimosphere. I

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don't know if you follow all the Chuck Norris memes, Charlie,

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but they're pretty funny.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if you agree with this, but the

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only person that I have ever been told that I

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look like is Chuck Norris.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I get that, don't so much now.

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Speaker 5: Maybe ten years ago I did more. But I was

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in France last year on the streets of Avignon. It

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was actually in the Palais des papatt Avegnon when the

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Pope died, which is a very strange experience. But I

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was walking past a restaurant and this guy came flying

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out of the front door of this restaurant and said,

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you look like Chuck Norris. So I mean, I do.

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I do follow those memes because I have a personal

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stake in it.

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Speaker 1: Now, oh I can totally see that, and you know,

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you might, I don't know, want to get a little

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karate robe sometime and post for some pictures.

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Speaker 2: Except he was very short.

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Speaker 5: I was shocking to learn this because I'm six three,

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but apparently he was about five eight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, five eight, five nine.

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Speaker 1: And one of the memes is Chuck Norris, who's five nine,

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stood next to some basketball basketball player who's six foot eight,

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and Chuck Norris was tallerant. And there's already one out

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today that you know, oh shoot, I've already lost what

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it was. But something about you know, death lost his

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appointment with Chuck Norris or something like this, and he's

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going to be rest directed faster than Jesus was something

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like that.

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Speaker 3: It gets out of hand, but those things take wing, right.

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Speaker 1: But then I can't help mentioning the passing of Paul Erlick,

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which got a lot of notice, including from you all

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at National Review and everywhere else, and I wrote a

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couple of different things. I actually debated that miserable person

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a couple of times, including the first time on this

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half hour PBS television show hosted by some a young

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sandy haired guy named Peter Robinson.

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Speaker 2: That was it.

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Speaker 1: Peter Robinson had me on with Erlick, and you could

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actually find it on YouTube. Production values twenty years ago

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are pretty grainy compared to what we're used to today.

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But I was pleased that I got Erlick to concede

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that actually there have been some improvements, and not only

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the population outlook in the world, but the environmental outlook.

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Because one of the craziest things he said, hard to

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rank them, was by the year nineteen eighty, we're gonna

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all have to be wearing gas masks because air pollution

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will have gotten so bad. And I just went through

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the numbers, because you know, I'm Clean Air Act nut

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about how much air pollution has improved, including in the

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worst places like Los Angeles where I grew up, and

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he had to admit, yes, there's been some good news,

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but we're still all doomed.

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Speaker 3: And anyway, what I'm like that, but good grief.

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Speaker 5: You know, not to abstract this out to the breaking point, Steve,

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but this really is the core debate. I think in

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our politics, in our world, do you believe that human

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beings are the problem, that they destroyed some Rusoian states

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of nature, that they are a virus, that they are

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using the earth in dastardly ways, Or do you believe

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that people are good, That sure we have original sin

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or whatever your religion determines, but that human nature can

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be overcome, not permanently but on an individual basis, And

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that the earth is here and that we should be

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stewards of it, but we should use it for ourselves.

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I mean, I think that's the dividing line. And Paul

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Earle was notable purely because he was so far in

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the other direction that he wanted people dead, or at

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least he wanted them not to be born, and he

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didn't want them to thrive. I mean, all of the

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quotes I've read since he died have been about population.

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But he also said things like, you know, giving human

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beings cheap and abundant energy would be like giving an

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idiot child a machine gun. That's just a misanthropic thing

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to say. Cheap abundant energy is at the root of

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all societal and cultural thriving. That's what you need. You

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need that and food, and actually we're really good at

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producing both as long as the politics of the world

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don't get in the way.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I you know.

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Speaker 1: I'm teaching energy policy this semester, as it happens, and

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one of the first things I do on the very

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first day of class is say human beings could easily

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be called homo igniferens. There's actually evidence and evolutionary biology

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that our brain size began to expand. And certainly it's

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true that human development takes off when we mastered fire,

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the most primitive energy technology of all, right, and all

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the correlations in human health, longevity, and well being correlate,

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and the dustal revolution that correlates with mastering energy.

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Speaker 3: And so to say that cheap and abundant energy.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I think he would include clean energy,

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how ready to define clean?

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Speaker 3: Leave that for another day.

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Speaker 1: He'd be against that, totally misunderstanding that above all, if

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we don't have energy, we don't have much of anything. Yeah,

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there's a bunch of those like that. That one's the

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one I was going to pick on. I will give

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him one credit for on. He often said, I am

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in favor of coercion, he used the C word, including

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you know directly. You know, he talked about putting contraceptive

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chemicals in the water supply, finding people if they had

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more than one child, things of that kind. And by

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the way, the population control movement that actually predates him

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by several decades did involve or impost some of the

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worst human rights abuses around the country in places like

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Indian China. And so that's right, which he liked. That's true.

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Speaker 5: FCC should determine that every depiction of a large family

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was negative, right right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's that.

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Speaker 1: And then I guess the other way of talking about

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who gets celebrated in the world. So, you know, we'll

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talk about Caesar Shabas a bit later. But so Erlik

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remained a huge celebrity. You know, sixty Minutes had him

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back on again just a few years ago, long after

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his population projections and predictions had been busted.

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Speaker 3: Meanwhile, the person who really deserved to.

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Speaker 1: Be celebrated, I know you and your readers know this

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is Norman Borlog, who did win the Nobel Peace Prize

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for his really central role in the Green Revolution that

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prevented starvation from being our future. But nonetheless, Erlk was

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still getting the un Environment Prize. He got one of

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those MacArthur Genius Prizes, which is actually always a badge

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that you're an imbecile most of the time.

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Speaker 3: But still it's amazing how you can be.

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Speaker 1: Celebrated no matter how far wrong you are, as long

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as you have the ideology right.

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Speaker 5: Privature. You see that.

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Speaker 1: Times well that brah, yes, I can't resistance. We have

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you with your native accent with us. One of his

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predictions was he actually said, if I were a betting man,

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I'll bet that the nation of England will not exist

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by the year two thousand and in a certain way.

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Speaker 3: You know where I'm going with this. In a certain

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way he might be correct.

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Speaker 1: Just premature or because of the birth rate of a

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certain subpopulation in England these days.

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Speaker 2: I think he thought it out of water, right, that

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was it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's crazy.

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Speaker 5: I mean, as Christopher Hutchins used to say, yeah, it

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really does. Have to be wandering aimlessly around a park

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selling pencils from a cup. He's a crazy person. Could

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you just imagine in any other circumstance somebody whose core

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goal in life was to stop people being born being

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treated the way that he was.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Well, I'll just mention maybe it's another symptom

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of what you've brought up. The second time I debated

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him was not recorded, but it was at the New

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School in Manhattan, which is a pretty liberal place, and

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I was on a panel and it was James Hansen,

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the big climate change alarmist. Michael Oppenheimer from Princeton, who's

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also a big climate change fact told him back then,

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and then and Irlik and then me. So it was

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three on one, and that's what academia calls a balanced panel.

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But actually I had fun because I got to whichever

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direction I fired, and I hit.

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Speaker 3: Something that deserves hitting.

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Speaker 1: So anyway, well, all right, we have a very special

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guest today to talk to us about the Iran war,

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and I think we should turn to him right now,

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and now we welcome to the podcast. General hr McMaster,

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one of our favorite guests here on the Ricochet Podcast,

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author of several fine books, most recently At War with Ourselves,

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My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House, and

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of course a veteran of some pretty serious Middle Eastern combat.

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So General McMaster, I'll bet you can't guess why we

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wanted to talk to you today. And obviously the subject

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on everyone's mind. So I'm gonna make a proposition in

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the way of an opening question, in a manner speaking,

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and let you respond to it and see if I'm

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completely off base. It's, you know, a thought of war

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a lay person. I have no combat experience, no great

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expertise and knowing what's going on. But it did strike

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me the other day that I think I know why

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we're winning this war.

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Speaker 3: And the reason I think that is because the media

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is so sour on it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think back to something you'll well know,

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the tet Offense of nineteen sixty eight, a sweeping triumph

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of American forces on the battlefield, and the media said

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it was a catastrophic defeat and we suffered a political defeat.

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Kind of seems to me the way the media is

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playing it that way. Now, media is different these days.

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But what do you think. I think we're winning. But

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that's just this, you know, superficial impression I have.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll tell Steve, we are winning, and we're winning

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because you know, you have to consider what the world

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would be like. You know, what our security would be

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like if we didn't do this, first of all, and

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you know that it's really clear to me that the

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intelligence that drove this decision was the fact that around

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was building up its arsenal of these rones and of

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these ballistic mythss in a way to threaten our security

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interests in the region, to hold the world's economy hostage,

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and then to continue to strike Israel because their long

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term goal, right is to destroy Israel and kill all

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the Jews, right and and to and to to hold

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you know, the rab States at risk as well to

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have hegemonic influence really in the Middle East.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 2: And they're part of this access of aggressors, you know,

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China and Russia as well. So we're winning because I

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think we're making tremendous progress towards the objective, which has

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been sure that Iran can no longer project power beyond

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its borders. And I think the President was clear about this,

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the Chairman of Joint Chiefs was clear about this. And

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the campaign has been extraordinarily successful in destroying these missiles

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and drones. Over time. They still have the ability to

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fire about twenty ballistic missiles and forty or fifties or

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so drones a day, but that number is going down

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down ninety percent. The Iranian Navy is on the bottom

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of the Persia Gulf and their ability to interdict shipping

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through their and really importantly, I think, and this has

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not gotten a whole lot of coverage. Their industrial base,

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their ability to rebuild these capabilities is destroyed, and you

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have the continued loss of their.

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Speaker 4: Shit and.

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Speaker 2: The destructive power oriented against the repressive arms of the regime,

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the repressive arms of the besiege and the RGC who

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just murdered you know, thirty to forty thousands of their

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own people in a forty hour period in January. So

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I think it's been extraordinarily successful so far. It doesn't

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mean it's going to be easy going forward, that the

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strangerformers are going to be open immediately, but there is

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a campaign plan being executed very effectively.

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Speaker 1: Right So, now you're an old tank man mostly and

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so you might have a slightly biased opinion about this.

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But given that our goal is I'm calling it regime

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displacement rather than regime change, since we're not supposed to

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use that phrase anymore. But can this be accomplished by

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air power alone or are we going to need some

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component of ground troops in some way at some point?

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Speaker 2: You know, Steve. It just remains to be seen. I

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don't know. I mean, I think this is kind of

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an unprecedented situation in connection with complete air dominance, you know,

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the ability to fly with impunity, to control all of

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the airspace, combined with pretty exquisite intelligence in terms of

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being able to identify specific leaders within the regime. I mean,

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it was really I think, you know, this this strike,

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you know, most recently against Laura Johnny, you know, the

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head of the security apparatus who was meeting with about

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three hundred members of the besiege. These are these mass murderers,

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the people who have the most blood on their hands

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from the most recent attacks against their own people and

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now the continued efforts. You know, now this guy Collie

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Boff you know, maybe Sentry, I don't think, I mean,

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who wants that job. I think he's his time is

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quite limited. Will that be sufficient? Will that be sufficient

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till we get that the repressed arms of the regime

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sufficiently so so that then the people can can take

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control of their country. I don't know the answer to

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that question. Uh it will Can you do? Can you

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accomplish from the air the objective of reopening the straits

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of fourmus Era and the sea uh as as well

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as denying the runing is the ability to fight continue

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to fire these long range missiles and drones. I think

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that's unclear. The historical record indicates, uh that it's insufficient

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to do it from the air. But I think this

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is this is an this is an unprecedented situation. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So then you said a moment ago that our immediate objective,

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uh military objective is to degrade their capacity to threaten

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their neighbors and their nuclear program and so forth.

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Speaker 3: And then and then, so, I I.

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Speaker 1: Guess regime displacements I'm calling it is sort of secondary.

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I mean, the Venezuela model is will leave the people

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that are in place if they're going to be themselves

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and deal with us in good faith.

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Speaker 3: So I mean, how will we know that we've reached

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that stage?

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Speaker 1: What things should we be looking for, what things should

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be to be demanding of the Iranians?

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Speaker 3: And then it'll turn it over.

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Speaker 2: To Charley Well Steve. In twenty seventeen, when we were

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developing options for the president for an around strategy, we

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made it an assumption. We thought it was a valid assumption.

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I think subsequent events have borne it out, and the

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President agreed with it that we will not be able

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to secure our interest in the Middle East, protect our

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citizens there, protect our partners and allies Israel and the

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Gulf States, until there was a fundamental change in the

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nature of the Iranian government such that it ceases its

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permanent hostility to the United States. You know, they call

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the great Satan Israel, who they call the cancerous boil

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and their Arab neighbors, and I think that remains the

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case today' Steve. I think if this regime stays in power,

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you know, with those who adhere to the ideology of

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the revolution, who you know, these are the people who

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chant to America that's issue and really meet it, then

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I don't think you can have an end of the war.

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I think this regime is already done. I think that

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this regime is a dead man walking because I don't think,

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you know, Prime mister Netanyahu or President Trump is going

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to leave a regime in power that is still is

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permanently hostile and a regime that can still project power

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outside of its borders into the Straits of Hormus, for example,

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in a way that allows them to hold their neighbors

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hostage and hold the global economy hostage. So I have.

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Speaker 5: Freddie Blunt question, which is, why does every media report

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and it seems half the political class, certainly on the left,

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well so to some extent on the right, costs this

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as if it has been an historic disaster.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know what the historic disaster has been. Well,

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but first of all, I think because they don't considered

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the historical record, they don't consider the content, the context,

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and they don't consider what the cost would have been

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to not do this, Charlie. And and so the historical

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record would tell us that this isn't the start of

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a war. This is actually the continuation of a forty

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seven year long war that the Iranians initiated. And this

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is the best chance we've had in those forty seven

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years to maybe end the war that began in nineteen

347
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seventy nine with the taking of US hostages, that continued

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into the nineteen eighties, with you know, with the murder

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of two hundred and forty one Marines in Lebanon, as

350
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well as the bombing of our embassy there and the

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murder of French commandos on that same day. People forget

352
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the initiation of a worldwide terrorist campaign that involved the

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taking of US hostages, the assassination of Americans, a Sicagua

354
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and Argentina, blowing up a Padamanian airliner. I mean, the

355
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list goes on Cobar Towers bombing nineteen ninety seven in

356
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Saudi Arabia done by the Iranians, kills nineteen servicemen and women.

357
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How about the six hundred Americans who died in Iraq

358
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because they were attacked by Rani and properties equipped with

359
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:16,440
Iranian made projectiles of devastating So I just think it's

360
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a misunderstanding of the nature of the regime and neglect

361
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of the historical record.

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Speaker 5: And the second question is I think the military operation

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has been really impressive, and as I've said many times,

364
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I hope the rest of the world, especially China, is watching.

365
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,160
But we obviously do have some problems now in the

366
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Straits of Four Moves are closed, oil prices are up.

367
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That's a political problem as well as geopolitical problem. How

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serious is that? Is it something that we can resolve

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on our own and if so, how long will that

370
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take and how much can it cost?

371
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Speaker 2: Our military does a combined exercise with about thirty other

372
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countries every year based on a scenario of Iran closing

373
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the Straight of horm Moves. So so we know what

374
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to do but that But from the very beginning, the

375
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emphasis in this campaign was going going to we were

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going to prioritize the destruction of their long range missile

377
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capability and their drone capability and then and then turn

378
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to opening the straight with really a concerted effort to

379
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take out the weapon systems that can UH, that can

380
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that can that can influence the straight, you know, with

381
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Admiral Cooper, the commander of Syncom Command, a central commander

382
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said is that we have to get the threat down

383
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to imaginable military risk of of moving through moving through

384
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the straits. Once that's done, you will see a relocate,

385
00:20:42,559 --> 00:20:47,519
a reallocation of assets to to dominate the terrain UH

386
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from which Iran can influence the Strait of hor Moves.

387
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And then the physically escort UH with with ships and

388
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capabilities that can really First of all, there'll be a

389
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,079
mind sweeping operation that's going to take a little while

390
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,039
UH and that's a very deliberate effort. You want to

391
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get that right the first time, you know, because you

392
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:04,799
don't want anybody run into a mine and then you're

393
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delay further. Then the next the next thing that you

394
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,440
do is you begin to escort these escort operations, and

395
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,720
you'll start to see flow through the straight increasing, not

396
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,680
all back to normal, but little but little by little,

397
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,359
increasing day to day. I believe that's going to happen

398
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,079
in about fourteen days, maybe even a couple of days

399
00:21:23,079 --> 00:21:26,079
sooner than that. And then you're going to have really

400
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,440
a shift in the focus of many of our ships

401
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,279
to an air defense bubble around the ships that are

402
00:21:32,279 --> 00:21:36,880
moving through UH. And you're going to have apatche attack helicopters,

403
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,920
A ten close air support aircraft and and and the

404
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,119
platforms you've seen being used already in large numbers, like

405
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,599
the FA teens, S sixteens and so forth, really providing

406
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,079
cover for for that escort operation. But that's that is

407
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:56,640
a different phase of the campaign was anticipated, and I

408
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,680
think there will be a shift toward that in the

409
00:21:58,759 --> 00:22:01,160
in the next week or so.

410
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 1: So general, I want to ask you about President Trump

411
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,720
for a moment. You have been very measured in your

412
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,799
criticisms and support for him over the last several years,

413
00:22:09,839 --> 00:22:11,559
both in your book and your comments ever since you

414
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:12,680
left the administration.

415
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Speaker 4: In their.

416
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Speaker 3: I get it, no, I look we all know how well.

417
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 2: He misunderstands me. Man, you know, okay, yeah, right, Well

418
00:22:24,319 --> 00:22:25,200
here's what I think.

419
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Speaker 4: Now.

420
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Speaker 1: I'm not following things as closely as you are, I'm sure,

421
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,559
but my impression is I have been impressed that he

422
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seems very serene, very calm and uh. Look, I mean,

423
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we know Trump's going to say day to day crazy

424
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things like why didn't why didn't Japan tell us about

425
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Pearl Harbor.

426
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Speaker 3: I'm not just I mean that's Trumpet is sort of comic.

427
00:22:44,279 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: But offensive best or worst, depending on But the point

428
00:22:46,799 --> 00:22:48,799
is is that when it comes to these war questions,

429
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,200
I have been kind of impressed at his steadiness and calm.

430
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:52,759
Speaker 2: Uh.

431
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Speaker 3: And so I'm wondering what you make of his leadership

432
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so far.

433
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Speaker 2: Hey, here's what I think. You know. I think that

434
00:22:59,559 --> 00:23:02,559
the act aggressors, this is Russia and China who brought

435
00:23:02,559 --> 00:23:06,720
into the fold Iran and Venezuela and North Korea. They

436
00:23:06,759 --> 00:23:09,279
felt like they were winning, right, I mean they said

437
00:23:09,279 --> 00:23:11,079
that they were winning, right. And remember right before the

438
00:23:11,079 --> 00:23:15,400
massive invasion of Ukraine in February of twenty twenty two

439
00:23:15,799 --> 00:23:17,680
at the Beijing Olympics, they say this is the new

440
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,400
era of international relations. The United States, You're done, You're finished.

441
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Because they had seen I think the disasters withdrawal from Afghanistan,

442
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,480
the deadly would drawn on the Biden administration. They viewed,

443
00:23:27,599 --> 00:23:31,319
I think America as feckless, you know, in this period

444
00:23:31,319 --> 00:23:34,519
of time, and were emboldened. And I believe that led

445
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not only to the invasion of Ukraine. I think it

446
00:23:36,519 --> 00:23:38,880
led to October seven of twenty twenty three and the

447
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,759
lighting of the fire around Israel. I think it led

448
00:23:41,799 --> 00:23:44,440
to Maduro saying, hey, the Americans aren't going to do anything.

449
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,720
In fact, they're alleviating sanctions on me, like we were

450
00:23:47,759 --> 00:23:50,480
on the irradiance, like we were undesignated, the whois is

451
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:55,200
a terrorist organization for example, not enforcing sanctions. So I

452
00:23:55,279 --> 00:23:57,880
told ahmind the coffers of these a lot of revolution

453
00:23:58,079 --> 00:24:01,920
at guards Court, they're filling up, increasing his stipends to Hesbola,

454
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,799
he's supporting the proxy army in Syria. Thinks you're going

455
00:24:04,839 --> 00:24:07,559
his way, and he's like, hey, time to cross this

456
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,319
off my to do list, you know, destroy Israel, kill

457
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,400
all the Jews. Right, they were the protagonists, they had

458
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:17,759
the initiative under the bidministration. Then Trump comes in, what happens.

459
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,400
You know, Maduro's gone, He's in a freak He's in

460
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,759
a New York prison. Right. Uh, now you have we're

461
00:24:23,799 --> 00:24:27,079
acting against the Iranians. Hey, I think, you know, I

462
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,480
think what President Trump has done is restored to terrence

463
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,119
and and regain the initiatives such that we are the

464
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:39,880
protagonists now against this hostile axis of aggressors, you know.

465
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,440
And Man, I wish he could do, you know, do

466
00:24:42,519 --> 00:24:44,880
it with a bit more finesse, Steve, you know, I mean,

467
00:24:45,039 --> 00:24:48,359
I wish he could. I wish you could stop insulting

468
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:52,359
our allies, you know, because big surprise. If you insult

469
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,920
people for several months and then you say, hey, how

470
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,400
about some support, they might be a little bit reluctant

471
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,079
at first. You know who knew. So I wish you

472
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,119
would just get out of his way. And the one

473
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,039
thing I would say is, gosh, we've got such a

474
00:25:05,039 --> 00:25:08,880
big opportunity if there is a change in the nature

475
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,799
of this regime in Iran. Russia and China are the

476
00:25:12,079 --> 00:25:14,839
huge losers. Look at the world from their perspective. You

477
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,799
had your man Maduro gone, Cuban Army regime in Cuba

478
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:23,799
almost gone. Noriega is so nervous. He's he's preemptively releasing

479
00:25:23,799 --> 00:25:28,559
all the political prisoners in Nicaragua. I mean the Pink wave,

480
00:25:29,039 --> 00:25:32,119
you know, to the progressive anti American left in the

481
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:37,119
Western hemisphere. It's all swinging back. You've got Seinbelm, you know,

482
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,319
helping with border security, going after the narcotis kingpins. You

483
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,279
have now China and Russia, who had Iran in the

484
00:25:44,319 --> 00:25:47,359
region and used Iran as the way to convince the

485
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,279
Golf States. Hey, you got a hedge with me, right,

486
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,680
Americans aren't going to do anything. Yes, Iran, I have

487
00:25:52,799 --> 00:25:55,680
economic power over Iran. This is China talking to the

488
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:59,000
Gulf States. You need me, and they thought Russia said

489
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,440
the same thing, need me, because you know I'm involved

490
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,799
in this year, in civil war. I can help you know,

491
00:26:04,839 --> 00:26:07,599
I can help, you know, in a post civil war Seria. Well,

492
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,119
now guess what Russia's out of Syria, you know, and

493
00:26:11,599 --> 00:26:14,319
when if there's a change in the nature of this regime,

494
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,359
the US will be seen as the only the only

495
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,359
relible security partner in the region, will have the keys

496
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,480
to China's gas station, and they will have no influence

497
00:26:23,559 --> 00:26:26,359
left in the Middle East. I mean, honestly, you know,

498
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:27,799
there are people there as some people who make the

499
00:26:27,839 --> 00:26:29,400
argument he we shouldn't be doing any of this stuff

500
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,319
in the Middle East because the real threats China. Well,

501
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,599
guess what, this is an arena of competition that is

502
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,960
very consequential for the China competition, right.

503
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 1: I mean, something that I've observed a long time ago

504
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,559
is that you know, Trump famously said.

505
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 3: No stupid wars. He never said not no wars at all.

506
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: Right, And so you know, people read into what they want,

507
00:26:51,599 --> 00:26:53,119
and a lot of people on the right, as you know,

508
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,839
are been unhappy about this for reasons you mentioned. Let

509
00:26:55,839 --> 00:26:57,720
me ask them a particular thing that I think should

510
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,519
be in your wheelhouse. There's been a lot of concern

511
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:04,039
that we may be running short of weapons, interceptors and

512
00:27:04,319 --> 00:27:08,400
other things. And along with that there's the equally important

513
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,119
question of you might say, asymmetries. They fire a forty

514
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,359
thousand dollars drone and we're shooting it down with what

515
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,359
a ten million dollars missile or something like that.

516
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 2: So two point thirteen okay, but only four point five

517
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:22,480
million if it's a patriot though, see.

518
00:27:22,319 --> 00:27:24,519
Speaker 3: I mean, okay, well, there's still the I mean, but

519
00:27:24,559 --> 00:27:26,319
you get the point. There's still an asymmetry there.

520
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 1: And even though we're you know, ridiculously rich country, or

521
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,440
at least think I think we can borrow forever.

522
00:27:31,519 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 3: We'll leave that aside for another day. I wonder, first of.

523
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:36,799
Speaker 1: All, if you think it's a legitimate worry that we

524
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:41,400
might be running dangerously short of weaponry. And then second

525
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:44,799
the asymmetry question. I assume we're going to learn a

526
00:27:44,839 --> 00:27:47,240
lot about out of all this. I expect we already

527
00:27:47,279 --> 00:27:51,039
are from the Ukraine theater. And so what's your projection

528
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,119
for how this is going to change our doctrine and

529
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,279
indeed design and procurement going forward.

530
00:27:55,839 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: Well, you know, the missile drone strike complex is coming

531
00:27:59,279 --> 00:28:03,480
to you, you know, Europe, even the United States, everybody, right,

532
00:28:03,519 --> 00:28:06,440
I mean, so this is something that we must learn

533
00:28:06,519 --> 00:28:08,440
from with the sense of urgency. In terms of your

534
00:28:08,519 --> 00:28:11,039
question about our magazine depth, do we have enough? We

535
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,359
have enough certainly for this campaign and the golf, although

536
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,599
we have to increase our manufacturing capacity is what President

537
00:28:17,599 --> 00:28:20,960
Trump has been really good good at emphasizing. You know,

538
00:28:21,079 --> 00:28:25,279
so has Secretary worked Hexith and is extremely competent. Deputy

539
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,480
Steve Feinberg, who is helping us ramp up our defense

540
00:28:29,559 --> 00:28:32,839
production capacity. So just to give you an example, we

541
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:38,960
bought six hundred and fifty FAD missiles. We expended one

542
00:28:39,039 --> 00:28:42,559
quarter of those during the Twelve Day War last year. Okay,

543
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,359
but then what the Department of War contracted was a

544
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,519
four x increase in procurement. Patriot missiles were in pretty

545
00:28:50,519 --> 00:28:54,119
good shape with you know, Ukraine uses them as well.

546
00:28:54,559 --> 00:28:56,559
The Saudis have bought a lot of them. I won't

547
00:28:56,559 --> 00:29:00,319
say how many, but they've got plenty. The Amorties have them,

548
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:05,160
and we have them. But we've vastly increased our buy

549
00:29:05,319 --> 00:29:08,160
of patriots as well. And this is why we you know,

550
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,720
the Congress should pass is two hundred this two hundred

551
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:16,240
billion dollars supplemental to get our military hold because there

552
00:29:16,319 --> 00:29:19,079
was a bow wave of deferred procurement and a bow

553
00:29:19,119 --> 00:29:20,920
wave of what you're getting to in terms of drone

554
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:25,359
defense overall of deferred modernization. You also have the Arrow

555
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,200
system by the Israelis joint developed with US, which is

556
00:29:28,279 --> 00:29:31,400
very capable. But what you also have are a whole

557
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:36,839
bunch of like lower end defense capabilities, air defense capabilities

558
00:29:37,119 --> 00:29:40,400
that can be that can be quite effective for point defense.

559
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,160
This is called like an a RAM system, a c

560
00:29:42,319 --> 00:29:46,039
RAMS system and so forth, and and so you know,

561
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,720
we're going to get better at this. You mentioned the

562
00:29:48,839 --> 00:29:52,920
Ukrainian capabilities. One of the Ukrainian capabilities are these small

563
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,599
quad crop copter drones that I detect the drone coming

564
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,559
in and then vector at that drone and destroy a

565
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,720
drone with the drone. There are Ukrainian teams on the

566
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:07,640
ground right now helping Gulf states put together this defense capability.

567
00:30:07,839 --> 00:30:11,480
And I think Steve were about nine months away from

568
00:30:11,519 --> 00:30:16,480
some very significant, low cost counter drone capabilities. Some of

569
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,640
those are involving these kind of count the counter drone drones,

570
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,839
but also directed energy capabilities laser beams you know, uh,

571
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,400
you know, I always wanted to say, like Doctor Evil,

572
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,480
fire the freaking laser. You know, well, to be able

573
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,960
to we'll be able to say that now. So so

574
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:37,799
so the you know, those are coming online. And on munitions,

575
00:30:38,119 --> 00:30:40,680
you also have to look at the offensive munitions. We

576
00:30:40,799 --> 00:30:45,000
expended a lot of our standoff munitions. Uh. These are

577
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,480
these are air launched uh and sea launched cruise missiles essentially,

578
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:52,319
and so we've got to buy those and build those

579
00:30:52,359 --> 00:30:54,480
back up. But hey, we're not using them anymore. You

580
00:30:54,519 --> 00:30:57,079
know what we're using because we have air supremacy, is

581
00:30:57,119 --> 00:31:00,559
we're using jay dams, which is like a precision guided

582
00:31:00,799 --> 00:31:04,480
bomb that you drop out and networ flying bombers you

583
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:08,640
know over over Iran and know some concern about one

584
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,039
of our carriers how to fire in the laundry. It's

585
00:31:11,079 --> 00:31:14,519
going to get refit. But two of those bombers b

586
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,519
onet to be two bombers is the equivalent of a

587
00:31:17,599 --> 00:31:19,559
naval air wing on a carrier, you know, in terms

588
00:31:19,599 --> 00:31:21,759
of what they can do in terms of targeting. So

589
00:31:22,359 --> 00:31:24,200
now with these jade ems systems, which we have a

590
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,599
whole heck of a lot of By the way, I

591
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,480
think we're we're in good shape. Now, it doesn't mean

592
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,559
we're a good shape in our industrial base, does it.

593
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,880
We have to still vastly increase our throughput. We have

594
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,599
to pay attention to the supply chains, many of which

595
00:31:36,599 --> 00:31:41,079
are are fragile based on China's effort to gain exclusive

596
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:46,720
uh exclusive grip on critical minerals and components. So there's

597
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:48,680
a lot of work to be done. But hey, I

598
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,599
think one of the things I'm most optimistic about is

599
00:31:51,599 --> 00:31:53,200
how the Department of War is still want to call

600
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,519
it Department Defense, you know, because anyway, but the Department,

601
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,680
the Department of War is really engaged in meaningful reforms

602
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:05,119
in contracting, procurement, and importantly the incentives to free up

603
00:32:05,119 --> 00:32:07,680
private capital because you know, our defense companies they're not

604
00:32:07,799 --> 00:32:11,559
charitable organizations. You know, they've got just to shareholders. So

605
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,920
what they need is they need they need a secured demand, right,

606
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,799
strong demand signals multi year contracting so that they can

607
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,319
invest in the workforce and make the capital investments necessary

608
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:24,720
to get as healthy again.

609
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,119
Speaker 1: You remark about the lasers. My joke about that has

610
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:32,039
been a ha. Marjorie Taylor Green was right, after all, about.

611
00:32:31,799 --> 00:32:34,559
Speaker 2: The Jewish space lasers. I mean, that was what a

612
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,480
my friends, what about friends? When she made that comment,

613
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,400
he said, he said, you know, he said, you and

614
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:44,119
I should open up a Jewish laser bagel shop, and

615
00:32:44,279 --> 00:32:46,519
so we can do that because you know, I'm Jewish

616
00:32:46,559 --> 00:32:50,000
and not my grandmother's recipe, and you're you're a general

617
00:32:50,039 --> 00:32:51,400
and you can get lasers for free.

618
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

619
00:32:52,519 --> 00:32:52,759
Speaker 2: Yeah.

620
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,279
Speaker 1: So one of the reasons I like talking to you

621
00:32:59,319 --> 00:33:02,319
so much and you so much is that I mentioned,

622
00:33:02,799 --> 00:33:05,920
you know, your old tank man and my teacher of

623
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,519
strategic studies in graduate school a long time ago. Now

624
00:33:08,839 --> 00:33:11,599
had been a tank driver for Patent's Third Army in

625
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,400
the sweep across France. You can imagine how he taught

626
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,920
the subject in the classroom. It was not theories, it

627
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,279
was not abstractions. His first day of class was always,

628
00:33:20,319 --> 00:33:22,279
if there's going to be a war, the first question

629
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,160
is who's going to win, And that's a question about

630
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,400
capacities and leadership. And so that's my setup for our

631
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,000
exit question, which is to shift gears over to the

632
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,680
big theater we keep worrying about, which is potential theater,

633
00:33:33,759 --> 00:33:36,400
which is China. I agree with you that China has

634
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,359
to be right now saying and in fact I saw

635
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,200
some new script this morning that our new intelligence assessment

636
00:33:41,279 --> 00:33:44,160
of China is no, actually they're not really planning to

637
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,960
invade Taiwan in twenty twenty seven, as some people have

638
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,480
been saying for the last several years. But what's your

639
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,240
sort of assessment of the balance of power between us?

640
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,599
I mean, you know, they're the broad numbers of what

641
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:59,319
they're making sound alarming. I'm not sure about their capacities

642
00:33:59,319 --> 00:34:02,440
to use them effectively, But then it comes down to

643
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:03,039
the willpower.

644
00:34:03,079 --> 00:34:05,839
Speaker 3: So give us your very short compressed summary of where

645
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:07,480
you think we stand on the China question.

646
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 2: Well, you know, Steve, I think we are behind in

647
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,719
some areas that are really critical. First of all is capacity, right,

648
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,280
just the size of our armed forces, and then also depth,

649
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,480
you know, the depth in our armed forces and in

650
00:34:20,519 --> 00:34:24,360
our defense industrial bases. I mentioned China has engaged in

651
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,079
a massive build up, right, They've included I mean, they've

652
00:34:27,079 --> 00:34:30,800
increased their defense spending like forty six forty eightfold since

653
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,920
the turn of the century. And you know, quantity does

654
00:34:34,039 --> 00:34:37,280
have equality all its own, you know. And what they

655
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,239
also have done is try to take apart what they

656
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:44,800
see as our exquisite capabilities and our differential advantages in

657
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:49,519
technology with some asymmetric answers to that long range you know,

658
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,719
ballistic missiles, anti ship missiles, which they were by the way,

659
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,159
right before this campaign they were about to provide to

660
00:34:56,199 --> 00:35:00,360
iran tiered and layered air defense. But countersat don't like

661
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,280
capabilities offensive cyber these bold attacks, Steve, that we've seen

662
00:35:04,599 --> 00:35:07,360
in all of our critical infrastructure that's trying to prepare

663
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,079
to take us down, to take down our banking system,

664
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,800
to take down our transportation system, to take down our

665
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,559
power grid. Gee, I wonder why they're doing that well,

666
00:35:15,639 --> 00:35:18,599
because they're preparing for war against us, you know. And

667
00:35:18,599 --> 00:35:21,199
and so what we need to do is address a

668
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,840
bow wave of deferred modernization because we have answers to

669
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,119
a lot of the capabilities that are developing, but we

670
00:35:27,159 --> 00:35:31,039
haven't fielded them yet, and we need greater quantity. And

671
00:35:31,079 --> 00:35:33,679
the reason for that is over the years, we have

672
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,199
traded off the size of our armed forces for more

673
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,840
and more exquisite and expect for fewer and fewer i

674
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:45,920
should say exquisite capabilities. That what what if those capabilities

675
00:35:46,159 --> 00:35:49,800
fail catastrophically because of countermeasures? Right, you need depth in

676
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,559
these capabilities, and as you've already alluded to, you need

677
00:35:53,639 --> 00:35:57,760
some cheaper solutions. So maybe it's less exquisite solutions because

678
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:02,800
you know, scale matters our ability to conduct simultaneous operations,

679
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:06,400
maybe across multiple theaters. Because the competition with China, it

680
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,599
really is a global competition, you know. So so I

681
00:36:09,639 --> 00:36:11,880
think there's a lot of work to be done to

682
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,719
really convince China that they can't accomplish their objectives with

683
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:17,800
the use of force, because you know what, that's what

684
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,440
prevents wars, and it's a hell of a lot cheaper

685
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,519
to prevent a war than to have to fight one,

686
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,239
and so there's work to be done. But I do

687
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,280
think it's beneficial that we just had this demonstration and

688
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:32,480
that President Trump really he's restored to terrence, I think

689
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,199
deterrece that was lost under the Biden administration and maybe

690
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,960
in the Obama years as well, and so, you know,

691
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,400
I think that it's positive. But they're going to study

692
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,440
the hell out of this. The Chinese already are, you know,

693
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,679
and they will develop countermais the other indicator, though the

694
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,039
twenty twenty seven is probably not the year, is the

695
00:36:49,079 --> 00:36:51,920
Taiwanese election. They're going to be watching the Taiwanese election

696
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,000
in twenty twenty eight. And if it's if it's the UH,

697
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,199
you know, if it's the KMT that comes to the party,

698
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:00,559
it tends to be more sympathetic to the PRC, maybe

699
00:37:00,559 --> 00:37:02,119
a little back off a little bit and try to

700
00:37:02,159 --> 00:37:05,880
get annexation by invitation, by buying off the leaks, by

701
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:10,199
subversion and so other enticements, and it set us. If

702
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,000
it's the DPPU comes in again, I think it's game

703
00:37:13,079 --> 00:37:16,000
on and you're gonna see this escalation UH toward toward

704
00:37:16,079 --> 00:37:20,599
a coercive in a course of campaign uh again against Taiwan.

705
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,719
The best remedy for that is make good on the

706
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:28,039
backlogged arm sales to Taiwan. You know, make Taiwan like

707
00:37:28,119 --> 00:37:30,559
a hedgehog. You know that that that you know that

708
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:34,559
that uh that can't be ingested you know by by

709
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:35,599
by the PRC.

710
00:37:38,119 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 5: How long has Trump got in this war before he

711
00:37:44,079 --> 00:37:46,880
starts to feel pressure? He has been all over the

712
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:51,360
place in his explanations. At the start, he was very open.

713
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,559
He called any journalist who would talk to him, but

714
00:37:53,599 --> 00:37:56,079
he gave three or four different answers, and then he said,

715
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,320
you know, it's almost over, and they said, maybe it's

716
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,320
just beginning. So it's quite hot to now exactly where

717
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,679
we are. How long do you think he's got realistically,

718
00:38:04,039 --> 00:38:09,360
because the military questions and the political questions don't line

719
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:09,960
up neatly.

720
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,599
Speaker 2: And Charles I like to ask you that question. You're

721
00:38:12,599 --> 00:38:14,159
probably much better at this than I am, you know,

722
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,719
both you and Steve. I'm terrible like domestic politics and

723
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,480
political pressure internally, I mean, I you know what you

724
00:38:20,519 --> 00:38:24,079
see with President Trump is, you know, he is still

725
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,800
kind of a marketing guy. You know, he's still kind

726
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,159
of a salesman and and real estate developer, you know,

727
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,559
and so you know, a lot of what he says

728
00:38:33,199 --> 00:38:37,760
it's performative, but he wants to shape reality, you know,

729
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,599
by he thinks, if we repeats it enough, you know

730
00:38:40,639 --> 00:38:45,239
it's gonna happen, you know. So so so part of

731
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,840
it is maybe aspirational, you know, language that is going

732
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:52,679
to be really short or you know, we said we're

733
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:56,440
all we've completely won almost or something. I mean, I mean,

734
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,519
so you know, so you get these raises and you're like,

735
00:38:59,519 --> 00:39:02,480
what is he talking about? But a lot of it

736
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,559
is really him trying to lay out the positive vision.

737
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,679
He tries to allay concerns. I think the best way

738
00:39:09,679 --> 00:39:11,519
to do that, by the way, is the way he

739
00:39:11,559 --> 00:39:15,480
did it in that seven minute true Social video where

740
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,480
he said, hey, this isn't going to be easy. You know,

741
00:39:17,519 --> 00:39:19,559
we're probably going to suffer losses, you know. I mean,

742
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:21,599
that was actually pretty good. I wish he'd lose the

743
00:39:21,639 --> 00:39:23,599
baseball hat and do it from the oval office man,

744
00:39:23,639 --> 00:39:26,599
when he's talking about more but anyway, I mean minor points, right,

745
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,440
but I think you know that was the right tone.

746
00:39:29,679 --> 00:39:34,400
What you see I think in Trump too is somebody

747
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:38,159
convinced him that his own staff was the deep state.

748
00:39:38,639 --> 00:39:40,679
And there are probably like twenty five people in the

749
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,960
NSC staff whose job it is to coordinate and integrate

750
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,760
across the departments in the agencies. Get him best analysis,

751
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,599
get him best advice. Put together the communications plan, make

752
00:39:50,639 --> 00:39:53,679
sure everybody's got the communications plan. Put together the congressional

753
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,119
engagement plan. Put together the Allied engagement plan, run it,

754
00:39:57,599 --> 00:40:01,079
execute it right, Integrate all elements Nashville power. I mean

755
00:40:01,679 --> 00:40:03,800
nobody's doing that. I mean people are doing that in

756
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,079
the departments in the eightencies. Of course they are, but

757
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:10,920
it's not integrated and consistent, and so I think if

758
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:15,440
they're the biggest criticism that I would have of the

759
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:21,719
campaigns so far is the unserious and inconsistent communications effort.

760
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,199
You know, I mean, stop with the memes, man, I mean,

761
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:27,559
stop with the video games stuff. That's nonsense. Nobody who's

762
00:40:27,599 --> 00:40:30,440
been in actual combat, who I know, nobody talks like that.

763
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,679
You know, nobody says we need two or a billion

764
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:37,199
dollars to kill bad people. I'm I mean, it's implied.

765
00:40:37,639 --> 00:40:42,280
It just gives us opponents, you know, AMMO unnecessarily. So anyway,

766
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,480
what do you think can I turn the question to

767
00:40:44,559 --> 00:40:48,559
you guys, I mean, how long do you think he has? Uh?

768
00:40:48,559 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 3: Well, I watch the price of gasoline.

769
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 1: I actually think that's going to be because everyone that's

770
00:40:54,039 --> 00:40:56,679
something that people buy every week, and they're gonna get

771
00:40:56,760 --> 00:41:00,039
cranky about that, and the pressure will go up and

772
00:41:00,039 --> 00:41:02,480
and then congressional Republicans will get very nervous because they're

773
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,480
nervous already about the midterms. So we'll see. But I

774
00:41:05,519 --> 00:41:09,559
think you know Trump, as you know, he's a winner. Well,

775
00:41:09,559 --> 00:41:11,559
he said we don't win wars anymore. Right, That's what

776
00:41:11,599 --> 00:41:13,360
makes me think he's going to see this through now.

777
00:41:13,519 --> 00:41:15,800
As you say, he's perfectly capable of declaring anything a

778
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,639
victory anytime he wants to. But I think it needs

779
00:41:18,639 --> 00:41:20,840
to be real this time. I don't think you can

780
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,000
have us a pr thing, Charlie, what do you think?

781
00:41:23,039 --> 00:41:24,239
And then we have to let the general go.

782
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 5: I think not long, not long, okay. I worry that

783
00:41:29,079 --> 00:41:31,599
this is a virtuous enterprise, but that people are going

784
00:41:31,679 --> 00:41:35,079
to get impatient and the midterms are coming. Yeah, I

785
00:41:35,119 --> 00:41:37,840
hope we can win fast, right.

786
00:41:38,639 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 2: I'm worried about it too. The what lesson will stand

787
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,599
this stough just quickly respond is that I think Trumpe

788
00:41:43,639 --> 00:41:46,320
will not accept an outcome where you have like a

789
00:41:46,599 --> 00:41:49,840
bludgeond I Rannie, a regime who's still that still has

790
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:53,079
the keys to this rates before moves right. So I

791
00:41:53,079 --> 00:41:54,719
think you're right. There can be mounting pressure on him,

792
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,079
but I don't think he will succumb to it. If

793
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:01,039
if if that means that's that's the condition at the

794
00:42:01,119 --> 00:42:03,519
end of the end of this phase of the forty

795
00:42:03,519 --> 00:42:07,440
seven year long war against against Orions.

796
00:42:07,679 --> 00:42:08,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what I think too.

797
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 1: He's taken a huge risk here, He's really bet his

798
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,199
whole presidency on this, So that's what makes me think

799
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,079
he'll probably see it through.

800
00:42:15,159 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 3: And you know, well, as he likes to say, we'll

801
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:19,679
just have to see what happens.

802
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:22,599
Speaker 1: And Jeff, we'll just have to see with you and

803
00:42:22,679 --> 00:42:25,920
have you on again sometime. I know you're really really

804
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:28,280
busy following this in your times in high demand right now,

805
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:29,400
and we're gratefully.

806
00:42:29,159 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 2: It's ben tome for you guys. What a great podcast.

807
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:34,239
Great to view with you. I always loved the discussion

808
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:35,320
with you guys. Thank you so much.

809
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,039
Speaker 1: Well, thank you Jo, It's very kind of you, and

810
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,079
thanks very much. Good luck we'll talk to you again soon.

811
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:44,519
Speaker 2: Thanks. Take care well, Charlie.

812
00:42:44,639 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 1: We mentioned briefly at the top of the show that

813
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,480
one of the deaths this week was not a literal death,

814
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,119
but was the death of the reputation of Caesar Chavez.

815
00:42:54,159 --> 00:42:56,360
And as someone who grew up in California in the

816
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:00,239
sixties and seventies and saw boycott grape signs everywhere, saw

817
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:04,679
Caesar shoves on TV every night in his farm worker

818
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:06,920
don grees before he changed back into a suit and

819
00:43:07,039 --> 00:43:10,159
scoot off in a limousine for some fancy dinner. This

820
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,440
is long overdue, and I don't know if you ever

821
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:15,039
followed him or not as a someone more recent arrival

822
00:43:15,039 --> 00:43:17,960
to the American shores, But good grief, this is I

823
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:20,119
have to say, I'm taking way too much delight in this,

824
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:24,400
which is very Unchristian of me. But still it's the

825
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:26,760
Left deserves the agony they're going through right now.

826
00:43:27,079 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is the worst thing that's happened to Caesar

827
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:30,840
around the eyes of marks And.

828
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 2: Well, that's very good.

829
00:43:33,079 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 3: I hadn't thought of that one.

830
00:43:36,079 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 1: Well, there are a couple of things that I have

831
00:43:38,119 --> 00:43:41,960
not seen reported, and it's because well everyone's talking about

832
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:43,800
his deeds and the fact that they were covered up,

833
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:47,639
and maybe surprising that the New York Times went after

834
00:43:47,639 --> 00:43:50,079
this so hard for so long about such an icon, right,

835
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:51,159
it props to.

836
00:43:51,119 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 3: Them for doing it.

837
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:57,039
Speaker 1: But I remember back in the seventies, just to give

838
00:43:57,039 --> 00:43:59,920
an example the listeners of really how what a thug

839
00:44:00,119 --> 00:44:04,480
Caesar Shavez was, is that farm workers actually had some

840
00:44:04,599 --> 00:44:07,559
union representation before he came along and got the United

841
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:12,039
farm Workers' Union going, and they were, believe it or not,

842
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:17,280
represented by the Teamsters. And normally, when you think union thugs,

843
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,000
Teamsters are number one on your list, right, And in fact,

844
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,639
the growers in California always preferred to deal with the

845
00:44:23,679 --> 00:44:26,880
Teamsters rather than Shavez. So an employer wants to deal

846
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:28,280
with the Teamsters, Well, here's why.

847
00:44:29,159 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 2: Now.

848
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,559
Speaker 3: First of all, a lot of union contracts were not

849
00:44:31,639 --> 00:44:32,280
like autoworkers.

850
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,199
Speaker 1: They weren't five year contracts, or if they were, they

851
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,079
had a lot of variable conditions depending on the migrant season.

852
00:44:38,159 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 2: Right.

853
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,199
Speaker 1: You know, a lot of the farm labor was migratory.

854
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,960
They spend some time here in California, then they'd go

855
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:45,920
to Michigan for two months for a different time of

856
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,920
the year, and so forth. But when the teamsters had

857
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:52,480
a contract with you, they followed the terms of it.

858
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 3: What Shavez would do is he'd wait.

859
00:44:55,679 --> 00:44:59,559
Speaker 1: Till harvest time, like, you know, literally a week before

860
00:45:00,079 --> 00:45:01,679
workers needed to go in the field and pick the

861
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,960
fruit when it's ripe, and if you didn't pick it,

862
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,440
it would go bad and the farm would lose all

863
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:09,320
their costs in growing it for that season.

864
00:45:09,599 --> 00:45:11,079
Speaker 3: And he would suddenly, even if he had.

865
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: A contract, would have a whole bunch of new demands,

866
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,119
you know, more money, more this, more that, and threaten

867
00:45:16,159 --> 00:45:18,880
a wildcat strike if the growers didn't give in. Now,

868
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:22,440
that's just pure thuggery and extortion. And he is, after

869
00:45:22,519 --> 00:45:25,519
all a disciple of what's his name, Saul Olenski, so

870
00:45:25,559 --> 00:45:29,079
we shouldn't be surprised at all this. But lastly I'll say,

871
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:33,400
is you know, John, you and I were both inmates

872
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,440
at Berkeley's Bolt Hall Law School here a few years

873
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:39,280
ago when they went through the agony of taking Bolt's

874
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,039
name off of the building because it turned out he'd

875
00:45:42,039 --> 00:45:46,280
said mean things about the Chinese back in eighteen ninety. Well,

876
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,679
there's a Caesar shav As student center on the campus

877
00:45:48,679 --> 00:45:51,639
at Berkeley, and Caesar shaves everything throughout the state. Some

878
00:45:51,679 --> 00:45:55,519
of those names are already being taken off buildings statues

879
00:45:55,559 --> 00:45:58,800
covered already here before the week is out, including on

880
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:02,760
some California State University campuses. But Berkeley is announced they're

881
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,480
going to go through their long, laborious renaming committee process

882
00:46:06,559 --> 00:46:10,599
with public input and meetings, And oh, I wish I

883
00:46:10,599 --> 00:46:12,199
could be around to watch all this, because it's going

884
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:14,360
to be pretty hilarious, I think before they end up

885
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:15,800
deciding to take his name off the building.

886
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 3: That's my guess. Sorry, that's my speech. I'm like I said,

887
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:20,239
I'm enjoying this way too much.

888
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 5: Well, I obviously think he's a communist. I think almost

889
00:46:24,519 --> 00:46:32,039
everyone's a communist. But I have, I suppose mixed feelings

890
00:46:32,119 --> 00:46:38,199
in that I'm a squishly smaller liberal. In the realm

891
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:42,400
of accusations, I think these are quite convincing. Yes, but

892
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,280
it is a long time and there's a reason that

893
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,480
we have a statute of limitations in the law, and

894
00:46:47,519 --> 00:46:53,360
it's not it's not just because it's difficult in a

895
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:57,440
llegal context, but it's difficult for anyone to judge allegations

896
00:46:57,440 --> 00:47:01,480
that are made decades after the fact. But I do

897
00:47:01,559 --> 00:47:06,400
think these are fairly persupasive. I mean too mind, Steve,

898
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:08,639
because on the one hand, I want to praise the times,

899
00:47:08,679 --> 00:47:11,840
and I want to praise progressives for living up to

900
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:18,280
the values here, which they don't always do. As I say,

901
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:24,159
those values aren't necessarily mine. I'm probably more skeptical than many.

902
00:47:24,199 --> 00:47:26,800
I didn't like the Met Too movement, but I want

903
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:29,840
to praise them. On the other hand, I can't help

904
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,119
but notice that the only point at which they ever

905
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,480
do this is when the person is either dead or

906
00:47:34,519 --> 00:47:39,840
not useful to them anymore. It's reminiscent in that respect

907
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:45,000
of Bill Clinton. I was so annoyed in the twenty

908
00:47:45,199 --> 00:47:49,599
ten early twenty twenties when people would say, well, we

909
00:47:50,599 --> 00:47:53,039
got rid of Bill Clinton. No, you didn't, not when

910
00:47:53,039 --> 00:47:55,199
you needed him. You did't get rid of him. In

911
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:59,039
ninety seven eight, you did the opposite. You called everyone

912
00:47:59,079 --> 00:48:02,440
who commented on what he did appear, and now you

913
00:48:02,519 --> 00:48:04,159
got rid of him. But that's because you don't need

914
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:06,199
him any more, because you don't need his wife anymore,

915
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:08,559
because you've decided that his politics were reactionary.

916
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 2: And I don't think.

917
00:48:09,559 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 5: That the leftist decided to say that Chaves his politics

918
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:14,679
were reactionary, but he is dead, it is a lot

919
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:16,280
easier to do well.

920
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:16,519
Speaker 2: Right.

921
00:48:16,599 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 1: This is the converse of the view that the only

922
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:20,599
good conservative is a dead conservative.

923
00:48:20,679 --> 00:48:21,840
Speaker 2: Right. You know, William F.

924
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:24,199
Speaker 1: Buckley is now a National Treasurer hero, but they called

925
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:27,400
him a fascist fifty years ago. As we know something

926
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:30,679
that you may not know, but I know because I

927
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,440
knew attorneys were involved in some of the Catholic sex

928
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:34,280
abuse scandals.

929
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:35,519
Speaker 3: From twenty years ago.

930
00:48:35,679 --> 00:48:39,280
Speaker 1: California essentially repealed its statute of limitations on.

931
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 3: Pedophilic offenses.

932
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:45,159
Speaker 1: Right, so you can now still bring a criminal and

933
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:49,119
civil action against somebody for something done back when Chavez

934
00:48:49,119 --> 00:48:51,599
did it. And yeah, the time story, what was convincing

935
00:48:51,639 --> 00:48:54,000
to me was not necessarily a testimony of the women.

936
00:48:54,119 --> 00:48:55,159
Speaker 2: I mean, that's always that he.

937
00:48:55,159 --> 00:48:57,599
Speaker 1: Said, she said problem, But you know, there's a lot

938
00:48:57,639 --> 00:49:01,599
of incriminatory documentary evidence that backs up their stories, and

939
00:49:01,679 --> 00:49:03,880
I thought that was probably what tip the scales.

940
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 3: I think one of the things I did it.

941
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: But finally, something un us have mentioned, but you have

942
00:49:08,119 --> 00:49:11,079
seen some people bring up, is that Chavez in his

943
00:49:11,199 --> 00:49:16,039
heyday was an immigration restrictionist, quite a serious one, and

944
00:49:16,079 --> 00:49:18,559
in fact, he used to use the W word, which is,

945
00:49:18,559 --> 00:49:20,639
you know, the Hispanic word from the end word, right,

946
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:23,880
And you know I remember all that and that, you know,

947
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,880
people who've studied the matter know this, and that was

948
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,840
all airbrushed out of all of the Caesar Chavez celebrations

949
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:32,639
of the last twenty years. But I heard people speculating

950
00:49:32,679 --> 00:49:35,840
all this reason this is coming out now is because

951
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:39,079
the left has become so fully open borders and against

952
00:49:39,119 --> 00:49:43,000
immigration restriction that Chavez's record might get brought up.

953
00:49:43,079 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 3: I don't know.

954
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 1: That seems the little too conspiratorial and cute for me,

955
00:49:46,679 --> 00:49:48,320
but it is an interesting angle of things.

956
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 5: I think absolutely, it is absolutely wild how far the

957
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:59,320
left has come on immigration in twenty or thirty years.

958
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:03,159
You go by and you look at Barbara Jordan, you

959
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,920
look at Bill Clinton, you look at Nancy Pelosi, you

960
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:09,800
look at Chuck Schumer, you look at Caesar Chavez. Yeah,

961
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:14,599
they were saying at one point, now, maybe their motivations

962
00:50:14,639 --> 00:50:17,840
weren't mine. Bernie Sanders used to be skeptical of immigration

963
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,320
because he's thought it impinged upon the labor union paradise

964
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:25,079
he wished to build. But yeah, says Chaves, was another

965
00:50:25,119 --> 00:50:25,639
one of those.

966
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it is a weird thing, right, Yeah, well,

967
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:33,360
all right, enough of that until you know next year,

968
00:50:33,559 --> 00:50:36,480
next week's celebrity deaths, I think it's time for us

969
00:50:36,519 --> 00:50:39,559
to get out. Charlie, you have been listening to the

970
00:50:39,679 --> 00:50:42,280
Ricochet podcast. We missed James Lax today. He's in the

971
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,880
thick of selling his house. But I know what he

972
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:47,000
would want you to do. He'd want to remind you.

973
00:50:47,119 --> 00:50:49,880
This podcast is brought to you by ricochet dot com

974
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:53,719
and it's other supporters, and I'm remiss if I don't

975
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:55,639
remind you to take a minute to leave a five

976
00:50:55,679 --> 00:50:59,519
star review on Apple Podcasts or whatever other podcast platform

977
00:50:59,599 --> 00:50:59,920
you use.

978
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 3: Your reviews really.

979
00:51:01,639 --> 00:51:05,119
Speaker 1: Do help us get new listeners, and that's just a

980
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:07,280
nice boost for all of us when you do so.

981
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:09,960
For now and for Charlie, we will see you in

982
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:15,519
the comments at Ricochet. Five point dot dot dot for

983
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:19,079
something four point dot dot dot All right, by, Charlie,

984
00:51:19,079 --> 00:51:19,719
see you next week.

985
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 3: We'll get James back.

986
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 2: Next time Ricochet. Join the conversation.