Speaker 1: And what will be coming up next will be silver
breaking out of an eleven year log base against a
sixty forty portfolio. So we are in a new secular bullmarket.
This is one that is going to run for probably
at least a decade. There's many reasons for that.
Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you
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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Carrie Letz. Well, after a couple of
solid weeks of metals inching and sometimes going more than
inches ever higher, we finally get the pullback day which
we are expecting. No surprise is there. It's September seventeenth.
Gold's down about thirty bucks the ounce on spot and
silver is down about a dollar fifteen. Well, someone who
follows this stuff for a living and has been since
I know him, Jordan Royburn is with us now the
Daily Goold dot com Jordan. We've been having this conversation
for over a decade, but finally this conversation has evolved.
It's a different conversation than we had two years ago,
isn't it?
Speaker 1: Absolutely carry And it's great to be back with you
and your audience. And yeah, I mean it's completely different
now because last March of twenty twenty four, gold finally
broke out of the cup and handle pattern. It broke
out of a thirteen year cup and handle pattern. And
I talk about this on in my new book which
I published earlier this year, and I'm scratching my own
back here, but people can get that for free if
they go to the Daily Goold dot com. That's why
I'm referencing that. And that breakout was one of several
signs setting the stage. We're really confirming that we have
begun a new secular pole market in gold. Another thing
which I just started tracking in the last couple of
years is gold against the sixty forty portfolio, so that
the conventional investment portfolio that everyone knows sixty percent stocks,
forty percent pawns. Gold broke out against that portfolio of
a ten year long base in March of this year,
and so that tells us I mean, we got the
breakout in gold nominal terms a year ago, several months ago,
gold broke out against a conventional investment portfolio. That tells
us carry that capital is starting to move from conventional
areas into gold. And by the way, in the last
couple of weeks, we actually saw GDX and the XAU,
amongst other indices, broke out of a eleven year long
base against the sixty forty portfolio. And so that tells
us capital is moving away from conventional into actually minors.
And what will be coming up next will be silver
breaking out of an eleven year log base against the
sixty to forty portfolio. So we are in a new
secular bull market. This is one that is going to
run for probably at least a decade. There's many reasons
for that. This is not just a thing that's going
to pop for a year or two or a We're
in a new secular bowl that's going to run into
at least I think the mid twenty thirties or in
the first you know, the first cyclical bowl market within
that longer term secular bowl market. And yeah, I mean
we are finally where we all were thinking we were
going to go and we are there now, and it's
been really exciting the last twelve to eighteen months. Short term,
medium term, it looks like we're at, you know, some
kind of a peak here, especially in the minors. Maybe
gold and silver will follow. I think eventually they will.
So people do not get dissuaded by the weakness that
we might see over the next few months in the fall.
This is much needed. This happens in really strong bull
markets and carry you know, whether this correction lasts, I
don't know, three months, six months, eight months, you know,
two months, whatever. What's really interesting is some of the
absolute biggest moves in gold and silver they come after
gold makes a breakout, makes a big move, then it
comes back in bottoms around the two hundred day moving average.
So it's happened six or seven times in its history,
at gold's history, and so when it comes back it
tests the two hundred day moving average. From that point forward,
it has made absolutely huge moves in the secular bowl markets.
So that is something I've been looking for. Again, I
don't know if it'll be in two or three months
or six months, but you know, looking out over the
next twelve to eighteen months. We're probably going to see
a period of weakness and correction first, but after that
we're going to see another big leg higher because everything
we're looking at, you know, technically, fundamentally, it's all in line.
We're just too overbought right now. The market's got a
rest because you know, it doesn't go straight up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the tree does not grow to the sky. And
you know, one of the things I like about you, Jordan,
is you're not out there saying gold's going up all
the time. You've been cautious for years now and you
have not been to one of the people over hyping it.
But you know, pointing to the long term trend that
it's certainly higher, it's going to happen at some point,
but you never You are not a raging bull until
very recently, and I think that's something important to note here.
So now you come around, I have a feeling that
this correction goes shorter for the simple reason we're in
the seasonal.
Speaker 4: Positive.
Speaker 3: You know, the generally gold silver go higher in the
fourth quarter, so maybe it'll act to frustrate us, but
most of the time gold is going to make new
highs during this time of the year, the fourth quarter
Q four, beginning of Q one, So this uh yeah,
maybe maybe it'll stay choppy till the end of the year,
till the beginning of December, but at some point I
think it's going to break out of this quarter.
Speaker 1: Well, I would say with with corrections, typically corrections. Of
course it can all be different, but generally, you know,
you have price in time, so you typically get either
the correction consolidates and it goes sideways for a period
of time. But the other scenario is you get it
in terms of price, where you get a sharp leg down,
but it doesn't last that long. So what you're saying
that would fit that style of correction where you get
a sharp leg lower but it happens really quickly and
people are like, oh you know, oh shit, this thing's
gonna crash. But then the buyers come back in and
they push it all the way back up, so that
that is uh yeah. And I'm not sure which way
gold will correct, but generally corrections tend to follow, especially gold,
one of those two scenarios.
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, and I think it'll be rather short lived.
That's just my feeling because the coiled spring of silver,
you know, we're talking sixty years of suppression. Yeah, they
can only manipulate the market in the short term. But
if they keep manipulating it in the short term, at
some point it turns into the long term.
Speaker 4: And I think that's where we're at now.
Speaker 3: I think the fact that the government is contemplating putting
silver on the critical minerals list was that final catalyst
is what it that it needed.
Speaker 4: It was already going up. Everyone knew it, but.
Speaker 3: Then all of a sudden, the government saying the obvious,
really kind of put it over the finish line.
Speaker 1: Well, I just did a bit interview with vitz Lancy
and he actually mentioned that he mentioned the lithium and
I forget the other battle. I'll I think I think
it was lithium and uranium. He said, like what they
put those two on the critical minerals list, Like, if
you look at if silver made the move, those two
batals made or minerals made. One puts it at eighty
the other puts it at one hundred and forty dollars
an ounce. So I'll just say this, Carrie. You know
I'm a technical analyst. The greatest breakout of all time
at capital market's history was quantity prices are really gold
in nineteen seventy two because you actually had to go
back to the Civil War. So gold was breaking out
of a over one hundred year lock base. And of
course we know that the you know, the gold standard,
it was artificially suppressed, especially in the nineteen sixties when
people were buying gold socks. They made a fabulous move
in the nineteen sixties, even before the nineteen seventies. So
with that breakout at gold was over an over one
hundred year long technical base, something that had tested multiple times.
I mean that's a lifetime, I mean more than a
lifetime for most people. The second biggest breakout of all
time is going to be silver breaking out through fifty
dollars an ounce, because that is going to be a
your forty six year or forty five year long breakout
when it surpasses fifty dollars an ounce. So a lot
of the hyperbole that people have been talking about with
respect to silver in recent years, it hasn't made a
lot of sense. But we're really close to the point
where you know, these these targets are you know, one
hundred dogs, two hundred three, These targets are going to
start to come into the present that they're they're going
to sound less and less ridiculous, because again, when you're
at that point where we're so close, and when silver
breaks about fifty dollars an ounce, carry again, this is
the second biggest breakout of all times. It's a really
long time, the biggest breakout since nineteen seventy two, again,
when gold broke out of a one hundred and ten
year long base. I think, so this is a super
exciting time for silver. And you know, looking at the
short term forty three forty four where we are right now,
this is the last resistance from here between here and
now and fifty dollars an ounce.
Speaker 4: And I would.
Speaker 1: Also let's look at the quarterly close that's coming up
in about two weeks here, so that'll be significant. There's
a chance that silver could close at a new quarterly
all time high. So that's significant because when gold actually
made it's quarterly breakout, that was in I believe December
of twenty twenty three, so that happened several months before
it did it in daily and weekly terms. So if
silver I believe that the quarterly all time high is
thirty eight maybe or thirty seven, so I could be wrong.
Maybe it's thirty eight change.
Speaker 4: I think you're so right around it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So if we see silver close above that
in two weeks the new quarterly all time high, that
basically tells us it's going to break fifty sooner rather
than later. And so and here's another point about that breakout, Carrie.
I looked at what did copper and oil do they
broke out of in the mid two thousands when they
broke out of multi decade long basis. Oil broke out
of forty, made a huge move here. Copper, I believe
when it broke about what is it a dollar fifty
or two. You can look at the chart that thing
exploded in twelve or fifteen months. So if you take
the moves that oil and copper made after those long breakouts,
it projected onto silver, which is breaking out from an
even bigger base. Silver could go to one hundred dollars
in twelve or eighteen months after it after it breaks out.
So and that's not hyperbole, that's analyst. That's analysis, looking
at history, looking at what happened with these other markets.
So yeah, I mean, so we're setting up I mean,
it's it's going to be really, really explosive at silver
and we're not quite there yet, but we're damp close.
Speaker 3: And we knew it was coming, you know. I talked
with you, David Morgan, a bunch of other people, and
you know, there was no question it was coming. It's
been building to this, and it's a sixty year coiled spring.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, look back in the sixties, silver was trading
for a dollar two dollars an ounce once upon a time,
but then in sixty five, which was a momentous year,
they demonetized silver and Jordan you know, and I know
that most of the people alive on the planet today
don't remember when silver was money. So they're going to
get a major education in that fact, very very quickly.
Just a couple other points. A few months ago, I'm
at Rick Rules conference.
Speaker 4: I'm talking to a.
Speaker 3: Metals dealer and saying, you know, I really like these
forty percent Kennedy half.
Speaker 1: Dollars and.
Speaker 4: Ike dollars, and.
Speaker 3: He's, oh, they're garbage or this and that. I said, yeah,
but they're garbage. But I bought them back when silver
was eight dollars an ounce, and that was back in
twenty ten after the crash, when it brought gold and
silver prices down and now you know the things are worth.
Back then, it was like about thirty two an ounce,
so they've quadrupled from their face value. And I bought
them below spot, all right. I bought them below melt value,
and up until three four weeks ago you could still
buy them below melt.
Speaker 4: And that was like the last bargain. The other thing
was war.
Speaker 3: Nickels thirty five percent silver from back in World War Two.
Speaker 4: They're still around.
Speaker 3: I bought, like you know, I didn't buy tons of
the stuff, but you know, a couple thousand bucks worth
because I just knew I'm buying silver for below what
its melt value is. I don't care if the people,
the smelters don't like it because it takes more work
and energy, right, and now all of that is going
to be and above spot. You can't touch those forty
thirty five percent coins for below spot anymore.
Speaker 4: They're trading overspot over milt.
Speaker 3: So that to me is like the most satisfying thing
because the pros, the so called pros avoid have avoided it,
but when there's a shortage, they'll take any silver they
can get, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I love your story there about the trader
investment that well, I guess it's an investment because you're
not selling, but that it goes to show you how
with agent experience comes wisdom. So whether it's yourself or
Rick Rule and other people, they know what's going to happen.
They they've been in this a really long time that
we know what the monetary history is. And so if
anybody out there's concerned about what's happening the next month
or the next quarter or the next year, we know
where this thing is going. There will be volatility along
the way, Carrie, but we're in the next decade, we're
headed to some kind of a new gold or monetary
system where gold has to be reintroduced as money. There's
no other way. If you look at again, you look
at a two hundred year chart of gold, you can
see what is going to happen. This thing is going parabolic.
There's no way it's going to stop. It'll be reintroduced
as money at some point. That's the only way they
can't raise interest rates. And this is another really important point, Carrie,
which I don't think most people have mentioned, but I
talk about this in my book. What has really driven
gold recently in the last past few years, it's been
a combination of central bank buying but also the new
secular bear market at bonds. So if you look at
the total real return of bonds and you use an
eighty month moving average, you look at this data going
back one hundred years. Falling below this moving average has
marked the start of secular bear markets in bonds. This
happened in the in nineteen sixty five or so, and
it also happened after the low and COVID so twenty
twenty one or so. Carrie, you think about the period
from nineteen twenty to twenty twenty, you made me you
made money in bonds other than from the mid sixties
to the early eighties. So we are in that period
again where we're in a secular bear market. This, yeah,
and this is very rare. Again, this is only it
only happened in that one hundred year period for about
fifteen to eighteen years. So most people do not understand
the reality of what that entails. Just I mean, it
has huge impacts on society for the economy eventually the
stock market, but also for precious metals. The nineteen seventies,
why was that such a much greater bowl market than
in the two thousands because you had a secular bear
in bonds, but you also had a secular barent stocks.
We're not there yet. We will get there at some
point in the next couple of years. When we get
into a secular baron stocks, that's when precious metals, I mean,
that's what you're gonna see acidite levels. But my point
is that's what drove the nineteen seventies. The three major
asset classes. You have gold, assets, stocks, and bonds. You
had stocks and bonds in a secular bear. Right, We've
already seen bonds fall into a secular bear. Stocks are
still in a secular pol but eventually the bond bear
market is going to inflict stocks as it did in
the late sixties and early seventies. And so we haven't
even we haven't even reached that point yet. So that
just should tell people that this thing is a long
way to go. We are only in the early days now.
And that's silver at these levels. I mean, it's going
to be hundreds of dollars and outs in the next
I don't know, three five, six years something like that.
Gold will be you know, gold's going to be closer
to ten thousand at that point. So the technical setup
is there. And if you look at history, you look
at you know, look at one hundred and fifty years
of data and see where gold and silver peaks, Where
were they relative to the S and P or the DOW,
Where were they relative to the monetary base. You know,
you look at some other data series like that, they
all I'll tell you know, gold's going to twenty thousand basically,
just based on history. And if you look at every
gold at every peak in precious metals, the gold silver ratio,
where did it bottom? It was around fifteen or sixteen.
What does that tell you where silver is going? It
doesn't mean sower's going to doesn't mean sower's going to
stay there or you know, they'll be there forever, but
that just that tells you ultimately where the metals are
going over the next five to ten years. So yeah,
I mean it's we're at a really exciting spot and
it just started in the last year, so it's still
early for people to get in. So yeah, just just
buy a little bit of metals every month, Just buy
a little bit. It just just keeps stacking.
Speaker 4: That's what I do.
Speaker 3: You know, I basically haven't really bought anything meaningful since
twenty eleven, a little bit here and there, just to
prove that I could buy things under melt value. It
makes no sense that you should ever be able to
buy under milt because it just shouldn't be. It's an anomaly.
And then the gold silver ratio, when you're looking at
one hundred and eight, you know, come on, it cannot
stay there because whether the government says it's a critical
mineral or not doesn't matter.
Speaker 4: Everybody knows it is.
Speaker 3: So this is just a government admitting and extending tax
benefits expedited permitting two silver projects. There's a lot of
silver projects out there that have just been sitting around,
especially in Nevada, just waiting for that right catalyst.
Speaker 4: What about the cost.
Speaker 3: The economics of mining now pure silver, you know, because
we don't have many pure silver miners. What happens to that? Well,
the right now. Oil is obviously a huger. Energy is
a huge driver of inflation, and that's been kept low.
It hasn't been increasing.
Speaker 1: Of course, costs are going up a little bit every year,
and I mean general inflations is very significant. But with
respect to the energy costs in mining, it's so significant,
and because it hasn't been rising really at all in
the last few years. That's why mining companies right now,
their margins are just spectacular, Like Carrie, these companies, whether
it's a producer or an explorer or a development, they
don't even need margins to change, like these prices and
these this level of prices and costs there, but they
don't need margins to go up. They can make tons
of money. These stocks can balloon to the upside in
the next couple of years even if margins just stay
where they are, let alone. What happens if margins keep rising,
which I think will happen eventually in any way, And
so yeah, there's going to be a massive bubble in
mania coming in these stocks. I mean based on that
they're still cheap now. But circling back to the cost
of mining. One thing I talk about in my book,
which I discovered, if you look at the Parent's Gold
Mining Index going back one hundred years, and you look
at gold divided by the CPI, the inflation adjusted price
of gold, that's actually a great indicator for how gold
stocks perform over the very long term. And it makes
sense because these companies they move based on their margins.
It's not based on the gold price or the silver price. Yes,
that is a massive input, but ultimately it's their margins
gold and silver divided by costs or minus costs, where
you know that reflects how the stocks are going to
move over the long term. And again, so you look
at gold divided by the CPI, are silver divided by
the CPI, and you line that up with you line
that up with gen X, sil et cetera. You know
they over a long period of time, they track really
really closely. And so gold using in monthly terms, gold
against the CPI in monthly terms, I know it daily terms,
I think it just broke out to do all time high,
But in monthly terms, this thing broke out of a
forty five year long base in recent months. So that
kind of breakout has huge implications over the next two
three five years. So I do think the cost of
mining will continue to rise and creep higher, and you know,
at some point they'll rise too much and faster than
the metals. But for here and now, I still think
that in real terms, you're going to see gold and
silver prices just continue to rise, and that's going to
incentivize obviously a lot of new production, and I'm glad
that we're the permitting and all of that in the
US is getting streamlined. And one thing I'll note Carrie
is silver, silver and gold they don't trade. They trade
on monetary factors, so supply really doesn't matter. I know
a lot of people they like the silver supply angle,
and I get that, but if you look at the
history silver, it's a beta play on gold, so precious
precious metals. You know, detractors will say, oh, prices will
go up and you'll get tons of new supply. Necessarily
we'll get new supply, but we're not. You know, people
don't invest in gold and silver based on supply and demand.
They buy for monetary reasons. So you know, production rising
and supply rising, that it really isn't going to dent
this bullmarket.
Speaker 3: All right, Well that's what we like to hear. And
I'm with you. I think I think it's going to happen.
It is happening, and we'll be staying in touch because
it's exciting. Look, Eric Spratt, whatever you think the guy said,
three hundred dollars announced for silver a couple of years ago,
and nothing I've seen nothing you've mentioned makes me believe
it'll be anything less than that, because when these things
move the coiled spring, it's been suppressed. I have this
little satire. I do like Trump GPT and I have
come X GPT and it's a it's the AI that
they use at Comex, and it's been having meltdowns because
nothing is working. Spoofed bids don't work, and you know,
naked shorting, switching contracts. You know, now you'll see what
comes going to do. They'll start raising margins again. But
unlike prior efforts to cap the price, this is going
to really make a difference here.
Speaker 1: It's a much stronger pullmarket this time around.
Speaker 3: For sure, for sure. So hey, Jordan, just tell us
where we find you. How we subscribe to your August publication.
Speaker 1: Go to the Daily Gool dot com. You can subscribe there.
Also at the top you can get my book there
for free at PDF and epop copy. So I would
if you're not familiar with my work, read the book first.
There's a lot in there. It contains all my thoughts
on everything precious metals.
Speaker 4: All right, you got it, Thanks, Jordan. We'll talk to
you again soon.
Speaker 3: Questions comments klatcarrieluts dot com. Make sure you go to
my new website, Substack. I'll be sending out a notification
about it. I've given up the conventional website because, frankly,
this is a lot less work. It's a lot more
effective to stay in touch with you because I'm no
longer worrying about other people's platforms.
Speaker 4: I have.
Speaker 3: My entire audience is there, locked and loaded. Jordan really
appreciate it. Talk to you soon and enjoy the ball run.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Kerry, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
more than ever,