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Speaker 1: And what will be coming up next will be silver

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breaking out of an eleven year log base against a

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sixty forty portfolio. So we are in a new secular bullmarket.

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This is one that is going to run for probably

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at least a decade. There's many reasons for that.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever, And welcome you are listening

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to and watching the Financial Survival Network.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Carrie Letz. Well, after a couple of

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solid weeks of metals inching and sometimes going more than

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inches ever higher, we finally get the pullback day which

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we are expecting. No surprise is there. It's September seventeenth.

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Gold's down about thirty bucks the ounce on spot and

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silver is down about a dollar fifteen. Well, someone who

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follows this stuff for a living and has been since

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I know him, Jordan Royburn is with us now the

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Daily Goold dot com Jordan. We've been having this conversation

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for over a decade, but finally this conversation has evolved.

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It's a different conversation than we had two years ago,

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isn't it?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely carry And it's great to be back with you

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and your audience. And yeah, I mean it's completely different

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now because last March of twenty twenty four, gold finally

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broke out of the cup and handle pattern. It broke

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out of a thirteen year cup and handle pattern. And

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I talk about this on in my new book which

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I published earlier this year, and I'm scratching my own

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back here, but people can get that for free if

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they go to the Daily Goold dot com. That's why

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I'm referencing that. And that breakout was one of several

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signs setting the stage. We're really confirming that we have

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begun a new secular pole market in gold. Another thing

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which I just started tracking in the last couple of

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years is gold against the sixty forty portfolio, so that

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the conventional investment portfolio that everyone knows sixty percent stocks,

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forty percent pawns. Gold broke out against that portfolio of

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a ten year long base in March of this year,

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and so that tells us I mean, we got the

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breakout in gold nominal terms a year ago, several months ago,

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gold broke out against a conventional investment portfolio. That tells

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us carry that capital is starting to move from conventional

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areas into gold. And by the way, in the last

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couple of weeks, we actually saw GDX and the XAU,

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amongst other indices, broke out of a eleven year long

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base against the sixty forty portfolio. And so that tells

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us capital is moving away from conventional into actually minors.

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And what will be coming up next will be silver

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breaking out of an eleven year log base against the

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sixty to forty portfolio. So we are in a new

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secular bull market. This is one that is going to

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run for probably at least a decade. There's many reasons

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for that. This is not just a thing that's going

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to pop for a year or two or a We're

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in a new secular bowl that's going to run into

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at least I think the mid twenty thirties or in

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the first you know, the first cyclical bowl market within

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that longer term secular bowl market. And yeah, I mean

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we are finally where we all were thinking we were

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going to go and we are there now, and it's

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been really exciting the last twelve to eighteen months. Short term,

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medium term, it looks like we're at, you know, some

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kind of a peak here, especially in the minors. Maybe

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gold and silver will follow. I think eventually they will.

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So people do not get dissuaded by the weakness that

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we might see over the next few months in the fall.

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This is much needed. This happens in really strong bull

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markets and carry you know, whether this correction lasts, I

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don't know, three months, six months, eight months, you know,

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two months, whatever. What's really interesting is some of the

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absolute biggest moves in gold and silver they come after

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gold makes a breakout, makes a big move, then it

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comes back in bottoms around the two hundred day moving average.

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So it's happened six or seven times in its history,

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at gold's history, and so when it comes back it

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tests the two hundred day moving average. From that point forward,

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it has made absolutely huge moves in the secular bowl markets.

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So that is something I've been looking for. Again, I

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don't know if it'll be in two or three months

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or six months, but you know, looking out over the

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next twelve to eighteen months. We're probably going to see

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a period of weakness and correction first, but after that

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we're going to see another big leg higher because everything

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we're looking at, you know, technically, fundamentally, it's all in line.

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We're just too overbought right now. The market's got a

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rest because you know, it doesn't go straight up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the tree does not grow to the sky. And

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you know, one of the things I like about you, Jordan,

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is you're not out there saying gold's going up all

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the time. You've been cautious for years now and you

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have not been to one of the people over hyping it.

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But you know, pointing to the long term trend that

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it's certainly higher, it's going to happen at some point,

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but you never You are not a raging bull until

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very recently, and I think that's something important to note here.

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So now you come around, I have a feeling that

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this correction goes shorter for the simple reason we're in

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the seasonal.

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Speaker 4: Positive.

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Speaker 3: You know, the generally gold silver go higher in the

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fourth quarter, so maybe it'll act to frustrate us, but

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most of the time gold is going to make new

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highs during this time of the year, the fourth quarter

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Q four, beginning of Q one, So this uh yeah,

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maybe maybe it'll stay choppy till the end of the year,

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till the beginning of December, but at some point I

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think it's going to break out of this quarter.

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Speaker 1: Well, I would say with with corrections, typically corrections. Of

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course it can all be different, but generally, you know,

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you have price in time, so you typically get either

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the correction consolidates and it goes sideways for a period

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of time. But the other scenario is you get it

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in terms of price, where you get a sharp leg down,

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but it doesn't last that long. So what you're saying

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that would fit that style of correction where you get

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a sharp leg lower but it happens really quickly and

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people are like, oh you know, oh shit, this thing's

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gonna crash. But then the buyers come back in and

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they push it all the way back up, so that

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that is uh yeah. And I'm not sure which way

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gold will correct, but generally corrections tend to follow, especially gold,

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one of those two scenarios.

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Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, and I think it'll be rather short lived.

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That's just my feeling because the coiled spring of silver,

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you know, we're talking sixty years of suppression. Yeah, they

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can only manipulate the market in the short term. But

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if they keep manipulating it in the short term, at

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some point it turns into the long term.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's where we're at now.

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Speaker 3: I think the fact that the government is contemplating putting

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silver on the critical minerals list was that final catalyst

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is what it that it needed.

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Speaker 4: It was already going up. Everyone knew it, but.

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Speaker 3: Then all of a sudden, the government saying the obvious,

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really kind of put it over the finish line.

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Speaker 1: Well, I just did a bit interview with vitz Lancy

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and he actually mentioned that he mentioned the lithium and

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I forget the other battle. I'll I think I think

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it was lithium and uranium. He said, like what they

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put those two on the critical minerals list, Like, if

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you look at if silver made the move, those two

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batals made or minerals made. One puts it at eighty

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the other puts it at one hundred and forty dollars

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an ounce. So I'll just say this, Carrie. You know

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I'm a technical analyst. The greatest breakout of all time

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at capital market's history was quantity prices are really gold

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in nineteen seventy two because you actually had to go

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back to the Civil War. So gold was breaking out

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of a over one hundred year lock base. And of

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course we know that the you know, the gold standard,

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it was artificially suppressed, especially in the nineteen sixties when

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people were buying gold socks. They made a fabulous move

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in the nineteen sixties, even before the nineteen seventies. So

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with that breakout at gold was over an over one

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hundred year long technical base, something that had tested multiple times.

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I mean that's a lifetime, I mean more than a

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lifetime for most people. The second biggest breakout of all

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time is going to be silver breaking out through fifty

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dollars an ounce, because that is going to be a

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your forty six year or forty five year long breakout

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when it surpasses fifty dollars an ounce. So a lot

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of the hyperbole that people have been talking about with

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respect to silver in recent years, it hasn't made a

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lot of sense. But we're really close to the point

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where you know, these these targets are you know, one

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hundred dogs, two hundred three, These targets are going to

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start to come into the present that they're they're going

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to sound less and less ridiculous, because again, when you're

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at that point where we're so close, and when silver

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breaks about fifty dollars an ounce, carry again, this is

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the second biggest breakout of all times. It's a really

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long time, the biggest breakout since nineteen seventy two, again,

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when gold broke out of a one hundred and ten

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year long base. I think, so this is a super

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exciting time for silver. And you know, looking at the

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short term forty three forty four where we are right now,

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this is the last resistance from here between here and

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now and fifty dollars an ounce.

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Speaker 4: And I would.

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Speaker 1: Also let's look at the quarterly close that's coming up

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in about two weeks here, so that'll be significant. There's

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a chance that silver could close at a new quarterly

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all time high. So that's significant because when gold actually

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made it's quarterly breakout, that was in I believe December

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of twenty twenty three, so that happened several months before

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it did it in daily and weekly terms. So if

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silver I believe that the quarterly all time high is

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thirty eight maybe or thirty seven, so I could be wrong.

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Maybe it's thirty eight change.

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Speaker 4: I think you're so right around it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So if we see silver close above that

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in two weeks the new quarterly all time high, that

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basically tells us it's going to break fifty sooner rather

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than later. And so and here's another point about that breakout, Carrie.

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I looked at what did copper and oil do they

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broke out of in the mid two thousands when they

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broke out of multi decade long basis. Oil broke out

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of forty, made a huge move here. Copper, I believe

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when it broke about what is it a dollar fifty

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or two. You can look at the chart that thing

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exploded in twelve or fifteen months. So if you take

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the moves that oil and copper made after those long breakouts,

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it projected onto silver, which is breaking out from an

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even bigger base. Silver could go to one hundred dollars

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in twelve or eighteen months after it after it breaks out.

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So and that's not hyperbole, that's analyst. That's analysis, looking

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at history, looking at what happened with these other markets.

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So yeah, I mean, so we're setting up I mean,

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it's it's going to be really, really explosive at silver

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and we're not quite there yet, but we're damp close.

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Speaker 3: And we knew it was coming, you know. I talked

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with you, David Morgan, a bunch of other people, and

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you know, there was no question it was coming. It's

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been building to this, and it's a sixty year coiled spring.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look back in the sixties, silver was trading

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for a dollar two dollars an ounce once upon a time,

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but then in sixty five, which was a momentous year,

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they demonetized silver and Jordan you know, and I know

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that most of the people alive on the planet today

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don't remember when silver was money. So they're going to

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get a major education in that fact, very very quickly.

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Just a couple other points. A few months ago, I'm

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at Rick Rules conference.

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Speaker 4: I'm talking to a.

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Speaker 3: Metals dealer and saying, you know, I really like these

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forty percent Kennedy half.

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Speaker 1: Dollars and.

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Speaker 4: Ike dollars, and.

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Speaker 3: He's, oh, they're garbage or this and that. I said, yeah,

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but they're garbage. But I bought them back when silver

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was eight dollars an ounce, and that was back in

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twenty ten after the crash, when it brought gold and

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silver prices down and now you know the things are worth.

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Back then, it was like about thirty two an ounce,

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so they've quadrupled from their face value. And I bought

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them below spot, all right. I bought them below melt value,

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and up until three four weeks ago you could still

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buy them below melt.

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Speaker 4: And that was like the last bargain. The other thing

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was war.

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Speaker 3: Nickels thirty five percent silver from back in World War Two.

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Speaker 4: They're still around.

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Speaker 3: I bought, like you know, I didn't buy tons of

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the stuff, but you know, a couple thousand bucks worth

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because I just knew I'm buying silver for below what

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its melt value is. I don't care if the people,

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the smelters don't like it because it takes more work

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and energy, right, and now all of that is going

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to be and above spot. You can't touch those forty

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thirty five percent coins for below spot anymore.

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Speaker 4: They're trading overspot over milt.

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Speaker 3: So that to me is like the most satisfying thing

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because the pros, the so called pros avoid have avoided it,

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but when there's a shortage, they'll take any silver they

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can get, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I love your story there about the trader

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investment that well, I guess it's an investment because you're

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not selling, but that it goes to show you how

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with agent experience comes wisdom. So whether it's yourself or

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Rick Rule and other people, they know what's going to happen.

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They they've been in this a really long time that

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we know what the monetary history is. And so if

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anybody out there's concerned about what's happening the next month

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or the next quarter or the next year, we know

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where this thing is going. There will be volatility along

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the way, Carrie, but we're in the next decade, we're

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headed to some kind of a new gold or monetary

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system where gold has to be reintroduced as money. There's

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no other way. If you look at again, you look

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at a two hundred year chart of gold, you can

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see what is going to happen. This thing is going parabolic.

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There's no way it's going to stop. It'll be reintroduced

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as money at some point. That's the only way they

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can't raise interest rates. And this is another really important point, Carrie,

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which I don't think most people have mentioned, but I

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talk about this in my book. What has really driven

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gold recently in the last past few years, it's been

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a combination of central bank buying but also the new

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secular bear market at bonds. So if you look at

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the total real return of bonds and you use an

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eighty month moving average, you look at this data going

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back one hundred years. Falling below this moving average has

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marked the start of secular bear markets in bonds. This

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happened in the in nineteen sixty five or so, and

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it also happened after the low and COVID so twenty

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twenty one or so. Carrie, you think about the period

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from nineteen twenty to twenty twenty, you made me you

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made money in bonds other than from the mid sixties

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to the early eighties. So we are in that period

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again where we're in a secular bear market. This, yeah,

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and this is very rare. Again, this is only it

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only happened in that one hundred year period for about

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fifteen to eighteen years. So most people do not understand

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the reality of what that entails. Just I mean, it

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has huge impacts on society for the economy eventually the

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stock market, but also for precious metals. The nineteen seventies,

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why was that such a much greater bowl market than

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in the two thousands because you had a secular bear

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in bonds, but you also had a secular barent stocks.

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We're not there yet. We will get there at some

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point in the next couple of years. When we get

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into a secular baron stocks, that's when precious metals, I mean,

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that's what you're gonna see acidite levels. But my point

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is that's what drove the nineteen seventies. The three major

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asset classes. You have gold, assets, stocks, and bonds. You

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had stocks and bonds in a secular bear. Right, We've

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already seen bonds fall into a secular bear. Stocks are

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still in a secular pol but eventually the bond bear

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market is going to inflict stocks as it did in

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the late sixties and early seventies. And so we haven't

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even we haven't even reached that point yet. So that

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just should tell people that this thing is a long

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way to go. We are only in the early days now.

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And that's silver at these levels. I mean, it's going

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to be hundreds of dollars and outs in the next

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I don't know, three five, six years something like that.

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Gold will be you know, gold's going to be closer

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to ten thousand at that point. So the technical setup

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is there. And if you look at history, you look

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at you know, look at one hundred and fifty years

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of data and see where gold and silver peaks, Where

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were they relative to the S and P or the DOW,

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Where were they relative to the monetary base. You know,

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you look at some other data series like that, they

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all I'll tell you know, gold's going to twenty thousand basically,

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just based on history. And if you look at every

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gold at every peak in precious metals, the gold silver ratio,

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where did it bottom? It was around fifteen or sixteen.

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What does that tell you where silver is going? It

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doesn't mean sower's going to doesn't mean sower's going to

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stay there or you know, they'll be there forever, but

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that just that tells you ultimately where the metals are

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going over the next five to ten years. So yeah,

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I mean it's we're at a really exciting spot and

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it just started in the last year, so it's still

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early for people to get in. So yeah, just just

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buy a little bit of metals every month, Just buy

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a little bit. It just just keeps stacking.

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Speaker 4: That's what I do.

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Speaker 3: You know, I basically haven't really bought anything meaningful since

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twenty eleven, a little bit here and there, just to

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prove that I could buy things under melt value. It

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makes no sense that you should ever be able to

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buy under milt because it just shouldn't be. It's an anomaly.

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And then the gold silver ratio, when you're looking at

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one hundred and eight, you know, come on, it cannot

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stay there because whether the government says it's a critical

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mineral or not doesn't matter.

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Speaker 4: Everybody knows it is.

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Speaker 3: So this is just a government admitting and extending tax

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benefits expedited permitting two silver projects. There's a lot of

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silver projects out there that have just been sitting around,

357
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especially in Nevada, just waiting for that right catalyst.

358
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Speaker 4: What about the cost.

359
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Speaker 3: The economics of mining now pure silver, you know, because

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00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:53,880
we don't have many pure silver miners. What happens to that? Well,

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00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,039
the right now. Oil is obviously a huger. Energy is

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a huge driver of inflation, and that's been kept low.

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It hasn't been increasing.

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Speaker 1: Of course, costs are going up a little bit every year,

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and I mean general inflations is very significant. But with

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respect to the energy costs in mining, it's so significant,

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and because it hasn't been rising really at all in

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the last few years. That's why mining companies right now,

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their margins are just spectacular, Like Carrie, these companies, whether

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00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,359
it's a producer or an explorer or a development, they

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don't even need margins to change, like these prices and

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these this level of prices and costs there, but they

373
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don't need margins to go up. They can make tons

374
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of money. These stocks can balloon to the upside in

375
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:38,960
the next couple of years even if margins just stay

376
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where they are, let alone. What happens if margins keep rising,

377
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which I think will happen eventually in any way, And

378
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so yeah, there's going to be a massive bubble in

379
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,920
mania coming in these stocks. I mean based on that

380
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,920
they're still cheap now. But circling back to the cost

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of mining. One thing I talk about in my book,

382
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which I discovered, if you look at the Parent's Gold

383
00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:02,720
Mining Index going back one hundred years, and you look

384
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,880
at gold divided by the CPI, the inflation adjusted price

385
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:10,319
of gold, that's actually a great indicator for how gold

386
00:21:10,319 --> 00:21:12,880
stocks perform over the very long term. And it makes

387
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,599
sense because these companies they move based on their margins.

388
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,680
It's not based on the gold price or the silver price. Yes,

389
00:21:19,759 --> 00:21:22,720
that is a massive input, but ultimately it's their margins

390
00:21:23,319 --> 00:21:26,680
gold and silver divided by costs or minus costs, where

391
00:21:27,079 --> 00:21:30,599
you know that reflects how the stocks are going to

392
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move over the long term. And again, so you look

393
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,559
at gold divided by the CPI, are silver divided by

394
00:21:35,559 --> 00:21:38,640
the CPI, and you line that up with you line

395
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,480
that up with gen X, sil et cetera. You know

396
00:21:41,559 --> 00:21:43,880
they over a long period of time, they track really

397
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:48,160
really closely. And so gold using in monthly terms, gold

398
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,839
against the CPI in monthly terms, I know it daily terms,

399
00:21:51,839 --> 00:21:53,759
I think it just broke out to do all time high,

400
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,720
But in monthly terms, this thing broke out of a

401
00:21:56,799 --> 00:22:00,720
forty five year long base in recent months. So that

402
00:22:01,319 --> 00:22:05,119
kind of breakout has huge implications over the next two

403
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,119
three five years. So I do think the cost of

404
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,960
mining will continue to rise and creep higher, and you know,

405
00:22:11,279 --> 00:22:14,440
at some point they'll rise too much and faster than

406
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:18,440
the metals. But for here and now, I still think

407
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,519
that in real terms, you're going to see gold and

408
00:22:21,559 --> 00:22:25,839
silver prices just continue to rise, and that's going to

409
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:30,279
incentivize obviously a lot of new production, and I'm glad

410
00:22:30,319 --> 00:22:33,240
that we're the permitting and all of that in the

411
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,000
US is getting streamlined. And one thing I'll note Carrie

412
00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:41,759
is silver, silver and gold they don't trade. They trade

413
00:22:41,799 --> 00:22:44,720
on monetary factors, so supply really doesn't matter. I know

414
00:22:44,799 --> 00:22:47,720
a lot of people they like the silver supply angle,

415
00:22:47,759 --> 00:22:49,559
and I get that, but if you look at the

416
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,599
history silver, it's a beta play on gold, so precious

417
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,599
precious metals. You know, detractors will say, oh, prices will

418
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,799
go up and you'll get tons of new supply. Necessarily

419
00:23:00,839 --> 00:23:03,920
we'll get new supply, but we're not. You know, people

420
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,559
don't invest in gold and silver based on supply and demand.

421
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:11,559
They buy for monetary reasons. So you know, production rising

422
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,519
and supply rising, that it really isn't going to dent

423
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:15,519
this bullmarket.

424
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 3: All right, Well that's what we like to hear. And

425
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,640
I'm with you. I think I think it's going to happen.

426
00:23:25,559 --> 00:23:30,279
It is happening, and we'll be staying in touch because

427
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:35,440
it's exciting. Look, Eric Spratt, whatever you think the guy said,

428
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:39,200
three hundred dollars announced for silver a couple of years ago,

429
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:45,240
and nothing I've seen nothing you've mentioned makes me believe

430
00:23:45,279 --> 00:23:49,079
it'll be anything less than that, because when these things

431
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,880
move the coiled spring, it's been suppressed. I have this

432
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:57,400
little satire. I do like Trump GPT and I have

433
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:01,559
come X GPT and it's a it's the AI that

434
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:05,519
they use at Comex, and it's been having meltdowns because

435
00:24:05,599 --> 00:24:10,440
nothing is working. Spoofed bids don't work, and you know,

436
00:24:10,599 --> 00:24:17,319
naked shorting, switching contracts. You know, now you'll see what

437
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,200
comes going to do. They'll start raising margins again. But

438
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:27,119
unlike prior efforts to cap the price, this is going

439
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,880
to really make a difference here.

440
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 1: It's a much stronger pullmarket this time around.

441
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 3: For sure, for sure. So hey, Jordan, just tell us

442
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,200
where we find you. How we subscribe to your August publication.

443
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,319
Speaker 1: Go to the Daily Gool dot com. You can subscribe there.

444
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,160
Also at the top you can get my book there

445
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,559
for free at PDF and epop copy. So I would

446
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,200
if you're not familiar with my work, read the book first.

447
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,319
There's a lot in there. It contains all my thoughts

448
00:24:55,319 --> 00:24:56,759
on everything precious metals.

449
00:24:56,839 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 4: All right, you got it, Thanks, Jordan. We'll talk to

450
00:24:59,200 --> 00:24:59,640
you again soon.

451
00:25:00,039 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 3: Questions comments klatcarrieluts dot com. Make sure you go to

452
00:25:04,519 --> 00:25:07,759
my new website, Substack. I'll be sending out a notification

453
00:25:07,839 --> 00:25:12,240
about it. I've given up the conventional website because, frankly,

454
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,640
this is a lot less work. It's a lot more

455
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,160
effective to stay in touch with you because I'm no

456
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,000
longer worrying about other people's platforms.

457
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 4: I have.

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00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 3: My entire audience is there, locked and loaded. Jordan really

459
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,519
appreciate it. Talk to you soon and enjoy the ball run.

460
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 2: Thank you, Kerry, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial

461
00:25:35,279 --> 00:25:40,319
Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,

462
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:46,079
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now

463
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:47,200
more than ever,