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<v Speaker 1>You know, you've likely read those historical anecdotes about how

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<v Speaker 1>scientific revolutions start.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, the whole apple falling on the head thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Exactly, And they rarely actually begin with a profound Eureka

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<v Speaker 1>moment echoing through some pristine laboratory.

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<v Speaker 2>No, it's usually much messier than that.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. More often they start with a joke or like

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<v Speaker 1>a mistake, a stray thought in a really mundane setting,

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<v Speaker 1>which is exactly what happened here, right, So the specific

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<v Speaker 1>scientific reality we're tearing apart today, this massive, stubborn, mathematically

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<v Speaker 1>terrifying anomaly currently unfolding it stern. It actually begins in

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<v Speaker 1>a puzz a.

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<v Speaker 2>Pub on the outskirts at Geneva.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, exactly. The year is nineteen seventy seven, it's summer,

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<v Speaker 1>and a young theoretical physicist named John Ellis is just

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<v Speaker 1>playing a game of darts.

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<v Speaker 2>Darts. You can't make this stuff up.

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<v Speaker 1>I know, right. He's playing against a visiting student named

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<v Speaker 1>Melissa Franklin, and they make a bet. Okay, the stakes

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<v Speaker 1>are beautifully trivial. Basically, whoever loses has to insert the

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<v Speaker 1>word penguin into their next published scientific paper.

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<v Speaker 2>Which I mean in the rigid hyperformal world of late

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<v Speaker 2>seventies theoretical physics that was basically academic.

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<v Speaker 1>Vandalism, totally just completely absurd. But Ellis loses the.

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<v Speaker 2>Game, of course he does.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And being a man of his word, he goes

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<v Speaker 1>back to his desk to look at the paper he's writing.

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<v Speaker 2>And this wasn't just some throwaway.

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<v Speaker 1>Paper, right, No, not at all. It's a dense, mathematically

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<v Speaker 1>brutal analysis of Quirk decay. I mean he's sketching out

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<v Speaker 1>Feynman diagram.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, those topological maps physicists use, yeah, the ones they

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<v Speaker 3>used to calculate the probability of sub atomic processes, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>expanding the S matrix into a perturbative series, all that

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<v Speaker 3>heavy mass, really dense stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. So he draws this very specific loop induced topology

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<v Speaker 1>and he just steers at the lines and vertices which

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<v Speaker 1>represent these virtual particles popping out of the vacuum.

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<v Speaker 2>And he realizes something.

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<v Speaker 1>He realizes the shape vaguely resembles a flightless bird. So

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<v Speaker 1>he officially coins it up Penguin diagram.

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<v Speaker 2>I love that so much. It was literally just a

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<v Speaker 2>bar bet, a bar beck. But you know, the profound

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<v Speaker 2>irony here is that nobody in that pub could have

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<v Speaker 2>known that half a century later this exact thing would happen, right,

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<v Speaker 2>that the exact quantum topology Ellis jokingly named after a penguin,

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<v Speaker 2>would become like the most consequential battleground in modern.

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<v Speaker 1>Physics, because today the mathematics governing that specific loop are

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<v Speaker 1>quietly refusing to align with the laws of nature as

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<v Speaker 1>we understand them.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they're just breaking down.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Thrilling Threads. Today we are dissecting a crack

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<v Speaker 1>in the Standard Model of physics.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's a big one.

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<v Speaker 1>It is. And you know, because you our listeners follow

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<v Speaker 1>the literature, you know that cracks in the Standard Model

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<v Speaker 1>are announced practically every other fiscal quarter.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, usually by someone looking for tenure.

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<v Speaker 1>To be honest, exactly, But this one is different, very different.

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<v Speaker 1>It has survived for over a decade. It involves the

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<v Speaker 1>decay of b messins in side the large Hadron collider.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's the plan for today, right.

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<v Speaker 1>So our objective for this Thrilling Threads discussion is to

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<v Speaker 1>isolate exactly what this anomaly is mathematically. We want to

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<v Speaker 1>walk through the rather brutal graveyard of similar anomalies that

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<v Speaker 1>have collapsed over the last twenty years.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, the graveyard is fascinating, it really is.

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<v Speaker 1>And finally we're going to analyze the specific mind bending

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<v Speaker 1>theoretical frameworks, things like lepto quarks and anomally free gauge symmetries.

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<v Speaker 2>The stuff that's currently sitting on the table, if this

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<v Speaker 2>data actually.

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<v Speaker 1>Holds up, right, But to properly contextualize the threat this

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<v Speaker 1>anomaly poses, we really have to talk about the rigidity

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<v Speaker 1>of the wall that's sitting in the standard model. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's casually referred to as the most successful

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<v Speaker 1>theory in the history of science.

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<v Speaker 2>That we need to quantify that success.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, Yes, exactly, because when we look at.

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<v Speaker 2>Something like the anomaloust magnetic dipole moment of the electron,

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<v Speaker 2>the famous G minus two calculation, we are looking at

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<v Speaker 2>a theoretical prediction that requires calculating the QED perturbation series

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<v Speaker 2>out to the.

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<v Speaker 1>Tenth the word which is just I mean that involves

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<v Speaker 1>evaluating over twelve thousand individual Feynman diagrams.

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<v Speaker 2>Twelve six hundred and seventy two diagrams to be precise.

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<v Speaker 2>That's just wild, it is. And when you calculate all

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<v Speaker 2>those radiative corrections and you measure the electrons magnetic moment

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<v Speaker 2>in a Penning trap, the theory and the experiment agree

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<v Speaker 2>to what extent to one part in a trillion.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, wait, let's just pause on that one part in

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<v Speaker 1>a trillion. Yeah, that is essentially like predicting the distance

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<v Speaker 1>between New York and Los Angeles and verifying it to

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<v Speaker 1>within the width of a single bacterium.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a great analogy. It's exactly like that. We have

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<v Speaker 2>spent fifty years firing particles at this theoretical framework at

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<v Speaker 2>increasingly absurd energy scales, and it just holds up. It

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<v Speaker 2>has responded with impenetrable mathematical perfection every single time.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know that perfection is exactly why theoretical physics

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<v Speaker 1>is currently in a state of existential read absolutely, the

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<v Speaker 1>source material we're looking at today highlights this paradox brilliantly.

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<v Speaker 1>The relentless success of the standard model is actually a.

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<v Speaker 2>Nightmare because we know deductively that it's fundamentally broken.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, It's an incredibly precise map of a localized room,

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<v Speaker 1>but it violently contradicts the architecture of the rest of

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<v Speaker 1>the house, and.

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<v Speaker 2>The list of its failures at the cosmological scale is well,

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<v Speaker 2>it's almost comedic compared to its microscopic precision.

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<v Speaker 1>Give us some examples.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, for starters, it lacks a quantized theory of gravity.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, pretty important thing gravity.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it offers absolutely no way to reconcile general relativity

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<v Speaker 2>with quantum mechanics at the Plank.

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<v Speaker 1>Scale, just a total blank space exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>It also completely ignores dark matter.

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<v Speaker 1>Even though astronomical observations demand it exists, right.

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<v Speaker 2>From glactic rotation curves to the cosmic microwave background power spectrum.

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<v Speaker 2>Everything demands that non varionic dark matter constitutes eighty five

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the mass in.

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<v Speaker 1>The universe, and the standard model just says.

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<v Speaker 2>Nothing, basically nothing. It also offers no explanation for dark energy. Wow,

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<v Speaker 2>And it cannot explain the non zero mass of neutrinos.

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<v Speaker 2>It requires these really ad hoc additions like the seesaw

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<v Speaker 2>mechanism just to keep the mathematics from collapsing.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's patched together with duct tape in some places, yeah, exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>But the most glaring failure, I think, the one that

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<v Speaker 1>directly intercepts the anomaly we're looking at today, is the

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<v Speaker 1>baryon asymmetry of the universe.

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<v Speaker 4>H the matter antimatter imbalance, right, because if you look

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<v Speaker 4>at the sacker Off conditions required to generate our universe, specifically,

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<v Speaker 4>the requirement for charge parity or CP violation.

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<v Speaker 2>Standard model technically includes it.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, technically the CKM matrix, which describes the mixing of

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<v Speaker 1>quarks allows for CP violation, but when you actually crunch

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<v Speaker 1>the numbers, the amount of CP violation it provides is

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<v Speaker 1>off by about ten orders of magnitude.

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<v Speaker 2>It is catastrophically insufficient. Yeah. According to the pure standard model,

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<v Speaker 2>the Big Bang should have produced equal parts matter and antimatter.

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<v Speaker 1>Which would mean total annihilation exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>The universe should just be this remarkably boring homogeneous bath

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<v Speaker 2>of cosmic microwave radiation.

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<v Speaker 1>But clearly here we are right.

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<v Speaker 2>Galaxies exist, You and I exist.

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<v Speaker 1>Which means there must be undiscovered physics.

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<v Speaker 2>There has to be new particles, new forces, new sources

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<v Speaker 2>of CP violation that fundamentally altered the decay rates in the.

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<v Speaker 1>Early universe, allowing one extra matter particle to survive for

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<v Speaker 1>every billion that annihilated.

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<v Speaker 2>Precisely, that single leftover particle is us, every galaxy, star

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<v Speaker 2>and human being.

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<v Speaker 1>So the missing physics has to be out there. We

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<v Speaker 1>know it, we do. But every time we've built a

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<v Speaker 1>larger collider to smash the wall, we just hit a

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<v Speaker 1>smooth surface.

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<v Speaker 2>It's incredibly frustrating for the experimentalists.

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<v Speaker 1>I can imagine there are no obvious, easily producible super

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<v Speaker 1>heavy particles sitting at the TV scale, where the hierarchy

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<v Speaker 1>problem suggests that they should.

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<v Speaker 2>Be Supersymmetry has a material at.

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<v Speaker 1>All, right, brute force just hasn't worked.

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<v Speaker 2>Which dictates a complete change in methodology.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so what do we do instead?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, if you can't shatter the wall with pure energy,

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<v Speaker 2>you have to look for microscopic stress fractures in the

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<v Speaker 2>existing masonry.

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<v Speaker 1>I like that.

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<v Speaker 2>You abandon the direct searches for new heavy particles and

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<v Speaker 2>you pivot to indirect searches. You build a microscope.

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<v Speaker 1>And in particle physics, the ultimate microscope is the study

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<v Speaker 1>of flavor changing neutral currents exactly. And this brings us

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<v Speaker 1>right to the architecture of the experiment that's catching these

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<v Speaker 1>fractures LHCb LHCb. So while the ATLAS and CMS detectors

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<v Speaker 1>at CERN are these enormous general purpose cylindrical.

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<v Speaker 2>Behemoths right designed to catch the transverse spray of high

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<v Speaker 2>energy collisions.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, LHCb is designed entirely differently. It doesn't surround the

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<v Speaker 1>collision point uniformly. It's a forward arm spectrometer.

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<v Speaker 2>It basically looks like a series of doors left open

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<v Speaker 2>in a hallway.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a great visual.

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<v Speaker 2>It's built that way because of the specific kinematic of

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<v Speaker 2>the particles.

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<v Speaker 1>It's hunting the beauty quarks.

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<v Speaker 2>Right when protons collide at thirteen point six TV. The

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<v Speaker 2>beauty quarks, the bea quarks are predominantly produced at very low.

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<v Speaker 1>Angles, so they fly straight down the beamline exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>And LAHCB is designed to catch them before they decay.

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<v Speaker 1>And to do that it employs a piece of engineering

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<v Speaker 1>that is frankly terrifying.

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<v Speaker 2>You're talking about the vertex locator, the velow, the ve low.

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<v Speaker 2>It is a silicon microstrip detector that operates in a

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<v Speaker 2>secondary vacuum and it physically moves.

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<v Speaker 1>It moves to within five millimeters of the proton beom.

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<v Speaker 2>Just think about that, five millimeters away from a beam

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<v Speaker 2>of protons carrying the kinetic energy of a high speed train.

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<v Speaker 1>It's completely insane. If the beam control fails by even

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<v Speaker 1>a fraction of a degree.

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<v Speaker 2>What happens, it would instantly vaporize the detect vaporized. Wow,

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<v Speaker 2>But they have to put it that close. They have

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<v Speaker 2>to reconstruct the exact vertex where the collision happened, and.

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<v Speaker 1>More importantly, the secondary vertex where the beam mess and

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<v Speaker 1>actually decays.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, because the b messin lives for roughly one point

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<v Speaker 2>five pico.

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<v Speaker 1>Seconds one point five trillions of a second.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, in that time, traveling near the speed of light,

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<v Speaker 2>it moves maybe a centimeter down the beam pipe before

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<v Speaker 2>it decays.

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<v Speaker 1>So you need the velo's crazy spatial resolution just to

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<v Speaker 1>separate the primary collision from the secondary decay exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>And what happens in that one point five pico seconds,

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<v Speaker 2>that one centimeter of flight is the core of our

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<v Speaker 2>whole discussion today.

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<v Speaker 1>The bmssen essentially performs a highly sensitive quantum experiment on itself.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this is where we need to introduce the glass

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<v Speaker 2>show Iliopolis Miyani.

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<v Speaker 1>Mechanism, the gym mechanism.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, So in the standard bottle, quarks are not allowed

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<v Speaker 2>to change their flavor without also changing their electrical charge.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, break that down for us.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure, a bottom quark which has a charge of minus

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<v Speaker 2>one third can happily decay into a charm quark, which

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<v Speaker 2>has a charge of plus two.

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<v Speaker 1>Thirds because the charge changes, right.

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<v Speaker 2>It does that by emitting a w boson. That's called

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<v Speaker 2>a tree level decay. It happens all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>But a bottom quark cannot directly transform into a strange quirk.

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<v Speaker 1>Why not?

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<v Speaker 2>Because they both have a charge of minus one third.

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<v Speaker 2>That is a flavor changing neutral current.

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<v Speaker 1>And the standard model explicitly forbids that transition at tree level.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly, it completely forces the decay to take the scenic.

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<v Speaker 1>Route, the scenic rout I love that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. To turn a bottom cork into a strange quirk,

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<v Speaker 2>the universe literally has to utilize a quantum loop.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So what happens in the loop.

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<v Speaker 2>The bottom quark has to temporarily emit a w boson

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<v Speaker 2>and transform into a virtual top quark, which then reabsorbs

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<v Speaker 2>the w boson to become a strange quark.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow.

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<v Speaker 2>And that virtual loop where the top quark and w

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<v Speaker 2>boson exist only as fleeting intermediate states, that is our Penguin.

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<v Speaker 1>Diagram, John Ellis's Penguin.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly, the barbet comes full circle.

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<v Speaker 1>That's amazing. And the true beauty of quantum mechanics here

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<v Speaker 1>is that the Heisenberg uncertainty principle allows anything to pop

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<v Speaker 1>into that loop.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, provided a pay back the energy debt fast enough.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, So the loop isn't restricted to just standard model

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<v Speaker 1>particles like top quarks and wpos, not at all.

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<v Speaker 2>If there is an undiscovered super heavy particle sitting at

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<v Speaker 2>say fifty TV.

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<v Speaker 1>Which is far too massive for the LHC to ever

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<v Speaker 1>create directly.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, way too heavy, but it can still exist as

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<v Speaker 2>a virtual particle inside that penguin loop.

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<v Speaker 1>It can borrow the energy exists for a tiny fraction

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<v Speaker 1>of a second and disappear exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>And in doing so it alters the quantum mechanical transition.

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<v Speaker 1>Amplitude, So it leaves a fingerprint.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, a new heavy particle running in the loop will

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<v Speaker 2>interfere with the standard model particles. It will either constructively

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<v Speaker 2>or destructively add to the mathematical probability of the decay.

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<v Speaker 1>Which fundamentally alters the observable outcomes exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>It acts exactly like a shadow passing across the water.

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<v Speaker 2>We can't see the monster in the deep, but we

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<v Speaker 2>can measure the ripple it leaves on the surface.

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<v Speaker 1>That is such a profound way to think about it.

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<v Speaker 1>So LXB is essentially watching these Specifically, it is analyzing

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<v Speaker 1>the decay of a neutral B messon into an excited

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<v Speaker 1>chaon and a pair of muons.

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<v Speaker 2>And this specific decay is vanishingly rare.

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<v Speaker 1>How rare are we talking?

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<v Speaker 2>The branching fraction is something on the order of a

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<v Speaker 2>few parts per million.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, out of a billion B messons produce, only a

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<v Speaker 2>handful will choose this specific path.

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<v Speaker 1>But the data density of the specific decay is what

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<v Speaker 1>makes it an absolute gold mine.

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<v Speaker 2>It really is.

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<v Speaker 1>When this B messon decays, it results in a four

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<v Speaker 1>body final state. You have the chaon and the pion

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<v Speaker 1>from the excited chaon decay, and then the two muons.

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<v Speaker 2>And because you have four particles flying apart, you don't

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<v Speaker 2>just measure a simple rate, right, You measure an incredibly

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<v Speaker 2>complex face based geometry. The kinematics are completely described by

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<v Speaker 2>three specific angles and the invariant mass squared of the demuon.

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<v Speaker 1>Pair, which they call q squared exactly qu square.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, measuring angles sounds simple enough, but the theoretical side

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<v Speaker 2>of this is a nightmare of strong force physics.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh, an absolute nightmare.

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<v Speaker 2>Because quirks are confined by the strong nuclear force. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>the bottom quark isn't decaying in a vacuum.

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<v Speaker 1>No, it's bound inside a messin, surrounded by this boiling

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<v Speaker 1>sea of gluons and virtual quarks.

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<v Speaker 2>That sounds so messy.

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<v Speaker 1>It creates what we call hadronic uncertainties. If your theoretical

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<v Speaker 1>map of this gluon sludge is slightly off, your prediction

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<v Speaker 1>for the decay angles will be off.

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<v Speaker 2>And this was the major bottleneck for years, wasn't it. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>The uncertainty in the form factors, basically the mathematical functions

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<v Speaker 1>describing that strong force binding, was larger than any potential

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<v Speaker 1>signal from new physics.

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<v Speaker 2>You couldn't see the signal through the noise exactly. But

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<v Speaker 2>around twenty thirteen, theorists like Joachim Mattias and his colleagues

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<v Speaker 2>executed this brilliant mathematical maneuver.

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<v Speaker 1>What did they do?

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<v Speaker 2>They realized that if you took specific combinations of the

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<v Speaker 2>angular observables and divided them by each other, the hadronic

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<v Speaker 2>form factors would mathematically cancel out at leading order.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh wow, they basically optimize the observable.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, they built a specific mathematical parameter called P five

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<v Speaker 2>prime p fact crime. Right. It is an angular observable

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<v Speaker 2>that is highly sensitive to the short distance quantum loops

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<v Speaker 2>where the new physics would hide.

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<v Speaker 1>But largely immune to the messy long distance strong forest physics.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly. It gave experimentalists a clean target.

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<v Speaker 1>So if P five prime deviates from the standard model prediction,

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<v Speaker 1>you can't easily blame it on a miscalculation of the

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<v Speaker 1>glue on field.

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<v Speaker 2>You really can't.

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<v Speaker 1>And this brings us to the psychology of the measurement,

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<v Speaker 1>which I find fascinating because analyzing P five prime requires

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<v Speaker 1>navigating human bias.

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<v Speaker 2>It's so crucial. When physicists at LEDTB sit down to

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<v Speaker 2>measure this, they are sifting through petabytes of background noise, just.

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<v Speaker 1>A mountain of data, partially reconstructed cascade decays, misidentified particles,

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<v Speaker 1>combinatorial backgrounds.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, So they have to build these incredibly complex machine

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<v Speaker 2>learning algorithms like boosted decision trees just to isolate the

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<v Speaker 2>pure signal.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you are doing that while looking at the

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<v Speaker 1>fire fin P five prime value, the temptation to tweak

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<v Speaker 1>your algorithm just a tiny bit to make a potential

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<v Speaker 1>discovery across the threshold.

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<v Speaker 2>It must be overwhelming, Oh, absolutely. Subconscious bias is the

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<v Speaker 2>enemy of precision physics.

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<v Speaker 1>So what do they do.

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<v Speaker 2>They employ a strict blinding provocol.

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<v Speaker 1>Blinding like literally hiding the data from themselves.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly in the software pipeline, an encrypted random phase or

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<v Speaker 2>offset is added to the angular data.

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<v Speaker 1>So the data is basically scrambled.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, the analysts spend years refining their background models, validating

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<v Speaker 2>their efficiencies, evaluating every conceivable systematic error.

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<v Speaker 1>All while looking at fake scrambled results.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, they are not allowed to know the real answer

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<v Speaker 2>until the analysis is officially frozen and approved by the

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<v Speaker 2>entire collaboration.

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<v Speaker 1>And then comes the unblinding ritual.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a very tense moment.

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<v Speaker 1>I can imagine they hit a button, the encrypted offset

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<v Speaker 1>is removed and the true distribution of P five prime

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<v Speaker 1>finally appears on the screen.

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<v Speaker 2>And when they unblinded this data, mapping it across different

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<v Speaker 2>bins of Q squared, the demuant invariant mass. Yeah, the

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<v Speaker 2>data did not land on the standard model line.

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<v Speaker 1>It missed.

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<v Speaker 2>It missed specifically in the Q squared region between four

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<v Speaker 2>and eight GV squared. The data points persistently drifted away

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<v Speaker 2>from the theoretical prediction.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, so it wasn't just a wild erratic scatter.

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<v Speaker 2>No, it was a coherent structural lean in the angular geometry, a.

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<v Speaker 1>Lean that, when all the statistical and systematic uncertainties were tabulated,

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<v Speaker 1>reached a local significance of around four standard deviations like sigma.

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<v Speaker 1>Four sigma, which means the probability of the standard model

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<v Speaker 1>being perfectly true and this result being nothing more than

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<v Speaker 1>a statistical fluctuation is roughly one in sixteen.

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<v Speaker 2>Thousand, one in sixteen thousand.

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<v Speaker 1>No, wait, one in sixteen thousand sounds pretty decisive.

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<v Speaker 2>In a lot of fields, it is.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean in normal science like medical research or psychology,

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<v Speaker 1>a p value of one in sixteen thousand would have

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<v Speaker 1>you booking tickets to collect your Nobel prize.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh for sure.

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<v Speaker 1>Why are particle physicists popping champagne?

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<v Speaker 2>Because in particle physics, four sigma doesn't even buy you

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<v Speaker 2>a press release. Seriously, it barely buys you a raised eyebrow.

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<v Speaker 2>The threshold for claiming a definitive discovery is five sigma.

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<v Speaker 1>Which equates to what probability.

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<v Speaker 2>A probability of one and three point five million.

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<v Speaker 1>That is an incredibly high bar it is.

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<v Speaker 2>But the reason particle physics demands of five sigma threshold

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<v Speaker 2>isn't just arbitrary pedantry. It's written in blood. The culture

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<v Speaker 2>of this field is entirely built on the scarred tissue

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<v Speaker 2>of false dawns.

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<v Speaker 1>Which is such a dramatic way to put it, but

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<v Speaker 1>so true it really is.

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<v Speaker 2>To understand why theorists are currently sweating over P five

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<v Speaker 2>prime but experimentalists are refusing to pop champagne, we have

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<v Speaker 2>to take a walk through the graveyard of anomalies.

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<v Speaker 1>We have to look at how discoveries die exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>The graveyard is arguably the most important context for this

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<v Speaker 2>entire discussion.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's do it.

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<v Speaker 2>The last twenty years of high energy physics is just

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<v Speaker 2>littered with the corpses of four, five, and even six

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00:18:57.200 --> 00:19:02.039
<v Speaker 2>sigma anomalies that commanded global attention before collapsing under scrutiny.

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00:19:02.720 --> 00:19:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Let's start with the first ghost in the graveyard, the

401
00:19:05.200 --> 00:19:08.319
<v Speaker 1>most infamous one, an anomaly that struck right at the

402
00:19:08.319 --> 00:19:10.559
<v Speaker 1>heart of special relativity.

403
00:19:10.319 --> 00:19:11.880
<v Speaker 2>The Opera neutrino anomaly.

404
00:19:12.079 --> 00:19:12.279
<v Speaker 3>Right.

405
00:19:12.480 --> 00:19:15.039
<v Speaker 1>This was back in twenty eleven. Yeah, Opera was an

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00:19:15.079 --> 00:19:18.799
<v Speaker 1>experiment situated in the Grandsasso Laboratory, buried under a mountain

407
00:19:18.839 --> 00:19:19.680
<v Speaker 1>in Italy.

408
00:19:19.440 --> 00:19:21.839
<v Speaker 2>And they were measuring the time of flight of neuon

409
00:19:21.920 --> 00:19:23.480
<v Speaker 2>neutrinos fired from.

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00:19:23.319 --> 00:19:27.200
<v Speaker 1>CERN a baseline distance of exactly seven hundred thirty kilometers.

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00:19:27.279 --> 00:19:30.000
<v Speaker 2>The premise was so straightforward. You know the distance, you

412
00:19:30.039 --> 00:19:32.400
<v Speaker 2>know the speed of light, so you know exactly when

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00:19:32.400 --> 00:19:33.559
<v Speaker 2>the neutrinos should arrive.

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00:19:33.759 --> 00:19:37.119
<v Speaker 1>But Opera announced that the neutrinos were arriving roughly sixty

415
00:19:37.279 --> 00:19:38.880
<v Speaker 1>nanoseconds too early.

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00:19:38.759 --> 00:19:41.559
<v Speaker 2>Which means they were moving faster than light, faster than light.

417
00:19:41.680 --> 00:19:44.680
<v Speaker 1>And the statistical significance wasn't three or four sigma, it

418
00:19:44.720 --> 00:19:45.720
<v Speaker 1>was six sigma.

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00:19:45.559 --> 00:19:46.160
<v Speaker 2>Six sigma.

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00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:50.119
<v Speaker 1>The data was crystal clear, but the implications were catastrophic.

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00:19:50.200 --> 00:19:53.799
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if neutrino's travel faster than light, Lorentz invariance is.

422
00:19:53.759 --> 00:19:55.680
<v Speaker 2>Broken, causality is violated.

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00:19:55.960 --> 00:19:59.240
<v Speaker 1>Right, you can essentially transmit information back in time. The

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00:19:59.400 --> 00:20:03.359
<v Speaker 1>entire foun foundation of twentieth century physics collapses.

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00:20:03.519 --> 00:20:04.480
<v Speaker 2>It was huge news.

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<v Speaker 1>So how did a six sigma anomaly die?

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00:20:07.599 --> 00:20:09.559
<v Speaker 2>It died because of a fiber optic.

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00:20:09.319 --> 00:20:11.880
<v Speaker 1>Connector a connector Are you serious?

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00:20:11.920 --> 00:20:15.079
<v Speaker 2>Dead serious? The time of flight measurement relied on this

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00:20:15.160 --> 00:20:20.079
<v Speaker 2>highly complex GPS common view time transfer system. Okay, the

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00:20:20.160 --> 00:20:23.119
<v Speaker 2>GPS receiver on the surface had to sync with the

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00:20:23.160 --> 00:20:26.279
<v Speaker 2>master clock underground via an optical fiber.

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00:20:26.480 --> 00:20:27.279
<v Speaker 1>And what happened.

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<v Speaker 2>It turned out that a single connector on that optical

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00:20:29.680 --> 00:20:32.920
<v Speaker 2>fiber had not been completely screwed in. It was slightly loose,

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00:20:33.079 --> 00:20:36.519
<v Speaker 2>a loose cable. That tiny gap in the connector altered

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00:20:36.519 --> 00:20:39.440
<v Speaker 2>the propagation delay of the optical signal. It introduced a

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00:20:39.519 --> 00:20:42.799
<v Speaker 2>latency of exactly sixty nanoseconds into the timing calibration.

439
00:20:43.079 --> 00:20:46.079
<v Speaker 1>Oh my god, so the neutrinos were obeying the universal

440
00:20:46.119 --> 00:20:47.000
<v Speaker 1>speed limit perfectly.

441
00:20:47.079 --> 00:20:48.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeahs the clocks that were hallucinating.

442
00:20:48.720 --> 00:20:49.359
<v Speaker 1>That is brutal.

443
00:20:49.400 --> 00:20:52.599
<v Speaker 2>The lesson there was clear a six SIGNA statistical certainty

444
00:20:53.079 --> 00:20:56.440
<v Speaker 2>is utterly meaningless if there is an unmodeled systematic error

445
00:20:56.519 --> 00:20:57.200
<v Speaker 2>in your hardware.

446
00:20:57.480 --> 00:21:00.359
<v Speaker 1>Extraordinary claims require you to check your cables.

447
00:21:00.359 --> 00:21:03.200
<v Speaker 2>Exactly, check your cables before you rewrite Einstein.

448
00:21:03.440 --> 00:21:06.240
<v Speaker 1>But you know, systematic hardware failures are only one way

449
00:21:06.279 --> 00:21:08.960
<v Speaker 1>to die. Let's look at the second ghost, the seven

450
00:21:09.039 --> 00:21:12.680
<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifty gv diphoton excess from twenty fifteen.

451
00:21:12.400 --> 00:21:14.400
<v Speaker 2>Right where the hardware worked flawlessly.

452
00:21:14.519 --> 00:21:16.599
<v Speaker 1>This was the start of run two at the LHC,

453
00:21:17.240 --> 00:21:20.400
<v Speaker 1>the energy had just been bumped up to thirteen tovy.

454
00:21:20.240 --> 00:21:24.319
<v Speaker 2>And ATLAS and CMS, two completely independent detectors with different

455
00:21:24.400 --> 00:21:29.039
<v Speaker 2>architectures and different collaborations, were analyzing the invariant mass spectrum

456
00:21:29.319 --> 00:21:30.400
<v Speaker 2>of photon.

457
00:21:30.000 --> 00:21:31.720
<v Speaker 1>Pairs looking for a bump.

458
00:21:31.920 --> 00:21:35.519
<v Speaker 2>Right, because if a new heavy particle is created, it

459
00:21:35.559 --> 00:21:38.559
<v Speaker 2>will decay almost instantly, sometimes into two photons.

460
00:21:38.680 --> 00:21:40.880
<v Speaker 1>You measure the energy of those photons, trace them back,

461
00:21:40.920 --> 00:21:43.799
<v Speaker 1>and if a particle exists, you see a localized excess

462
00:21:43.799 --> 00:21:46.720
<v Speaker 1>of events at its specific mass, a bump. And in

463
00:21:46.759 --> 00:21:50.400
<v Speaker 1>December twenty fifteen, both ATLS and CMS saw a bump

464
00:21:50.440 --> 00:21:52.359
<v Speaker 1>at exactly seven fifty GV.

465
00:21:52.599 --> 00:21:55.559
<v Speaker 2>Two independent machines. Seeing the identical signature.

466
00:21:55.240 --> 00:21:57.160
<v Speaker 1>The theoretical community just explode up.

467
00:21:57.200 --> 00:21:59.960
<v Speaker 2>Oh, they lost their minds. The Landau Yang theorem dicted

468
00:22:00.319 --> 00:22:02.920
<v Speaker 2>it had to be a spin zero or spin two particle.

469
00:22:03.039 --> 00:22:06.480
<v Speaker 1>Within eight months, over five hundred papers were published explaining

470
00:22:06.480 --> 00:22:07.400
<v Speaker 1>what this particle was.

471
00:22:07.799 --> 00:22:11.440
<v Speaker 2>A heavy Higgs boson, a graviton, as new trino, you name.

472
00:22:11.279 --> 00:22:12.880
<v Speaker 1>It, and then what happened.

473
00:22:13.119 --> 00:22:16.319
<v Speaker 2>In August twenty sixteen, they presented the data from the

474
00:22:16.319 --> 00:22:20.240
<v Speaker 2>remainder of the year, tripling the integrated luminosity, and the

475
00:22:20.240 --> 00:22:24.359
<v Speaker 2>bump completely dissolved. It just vanished into the background continuum.

476
00:22:24.400 --> 00:22:27.200
<v Speaker 1>How does that even happen to two independent machines. It

477
00:22:27.200 --> 00:22:28.720
<v Speaker 1>wasn't a loose cable this time.

478
00:22:28.880 --> 00:22:31.720
<v Speaker 2>No, It happens because of the statistical nightmare known as

479
00:22:31.720 --> 00:22:32.920
<v Speaker 2>the look elsewhere effect.

480
00:22:32.960 --> 00:22:34.720
<v Speaker 1>Okay, explain the look elsewhere effect.

481
00:22:34.880 --> 00:22:37.920
<v Speaker 2>Basically, when you scan a massive energy range looking for

482
00:22:37.960 --> 00:22:42.720
<v Speaker 2>a bump, you are essentially conducting thousands of independent statistical trials.

483
00:22:43.279 --> 00:22:46.039
<v Speaker 2>If you roll a twenty sided die a thousand times,

484
00:22:46.319 --> 00:22:47.960
<v Speaker 2>you were guaranteed to roll a twenty eventually.

485
00:22:48.000 --> 00:22:48.839
<v Speaker 1>Okay, I see it.

486
00:22:48.920 --> 00:22:51.599
<v Speaker 2>The local significance of the seven hundred and fifty GV

487
00:22:51.720 --> 00:22:55.880
<v Speaker 2>bump was high, around three point nine sigma for Atlas.

488
00:22:56.319 --> 00:22:59.480
<v Speaker 2>But when you factor in the global significance the probability

489
00:22:59.480 --> 00:23:02.359
<v Speaker 2>of a fluctual happening anywhere in the entire mass range

490
00:23:02.359 --> 00:23:04.559
<v Speaker 2>they were scanning, the significance plummeted.

491
00:23:04.839 --> 00:23:07.720
<v Speaker 1>So the universe simply rolled the dice, and by sheer

492
00:23:07.839 --> 00:23:12.960
<v Speaker 1>malicious coincidence, both atla's and CMS caught a statistical fluctuation

493
00:23:13.039 --> 00:23:15.480
<v Speaker 1>in the exact same mass bin exactly.

494
00:23:15.839 --> 00:23:18.559
<v Speaker 2>The ghost of seven and fifty GV teaches us that

495
00:23:18.599 --> 00:23:22.400
<v Speaker 2>even independent confirmation isn't enough if you don't properly penalize

496
00:23:22.400 --> 00:23:24.119
<v Speaker 2>your statistics for trial factors.

497
00:23:24.319 --> 00:23:27.240
<v Speaker 1>That is a tough lesson, which brings us to the

498
00:23:27.279 --> 00:23:31.119
<v Speaker 1>third ghost, a much more insidious cause of death, the

499
00:23:31.200 --> 00:23:32.160
<v Speaker 1>moving goalpost.

500
00:23:32.279 --> 00:23:36.359
<v Speaker 2>Ah. Yes, the muon G minus two anomaly.

501
00:23:35.920 --> 00:23:39.000
<v Speaker 1>For two decades, this was the crown jewel of physics anomalies.

502
00:23:39.440 --> 00:23:42.119
<v Speaker 1>It started at the Brookhaven National Laboratory in two thousand

503
00:23:42.119 --> 00:23:44.279
<v Speaker 1>and one and was later relocated to Fermilab.

504
00:23:44.559 --> 00:23:47.119
<v Speaker 2>And they were measuring the anomalous magnetic moment of the

505
00:23:47.240 --> 00:23:50.799
<v Speaker 2>muon injecting a beam of polarized muons into a fifteen

506
00:23:50.839 --> 00:23:53.640
<v Speaker 2>meter superconducting magnetic storage ring.

507
00:23:53.640 --> 00:23:57.400
<v Speaker 1>At a magic momentum of three point zero nine four GV.

508
00:23:58.119 --> 00:24:01.079
<v Speaker 2>Right at that specific momentum, the electric field used to

509
00:24:01.119 --> 00:24:03.319
<v Speaker 2>focus the beam doesn't affect the spin.

510
00:24:03.119 --> 00:24:05.799
<v Speaker 1>Procession, so they could measure the exact difference between the

511
00:24:05.839 --> 00:24:08.839
<v Speaker 1>muon's cycletarn frequency and its spin precession frequency.

512
00:24:08.880 --> 00:24:09.599
<v Speaker 2>And what do they find?

513
00:24:09.880 --> 00:24:12.359
<v Speaker 1>They found that the muon was wobbling slightly faster than

514
00:24:12.359 --> 00:24:13.880
<v Speaker 1>the standard model predicted, and.

515
00:24:13.839 --> 00:24:16.400
<v Speaker 2>The experimental measurement was an absolute tourtive force.

516
00:24:16.480 --> 00:24:19.240
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. By twenty twenty one, the frmolab results confirmed the

517
00:24:19.240 --> 00:24:22.920
<v Speaker 1>old Britaven data, pushing the discrepancy to four point two sigma,

518
00:24:23.000 --> 00:24:23.440
<v Speaker 1>and by.

519
00:24:23.319 --> 00:24:26.759
<v Speaker 2>Twenty twenty three, with more data, it crossed the five

520
00:24:26.799 --> 00:24:27.680
<v Speaker 2>sigma threshold.

521
00:24:27.960 --> 00:24:32.119
<v Speaker 1>The experimental measurement was essentially unassailable. The machine wasn't broken,

522
00:24:32.160 --> 00:24:33.839
<v Speaker 1>and it wasn't a statistical fluke.

523
00:24:34.160 --> 00:24:37.799
<v Speaker 2>But the anomaly collapsed anyway. Why not because the experiment

524
00:24:37.880 --> 00:24:40.720
<v Speaker 2>was wrong, but because the theoretical map they were comparing

525
00:24:40.720 --> 00:24:41.920
<v Speaker 2>it to had a flaw.

526
00:24:42.079 --> 00:24:44.599
<v Speaker 1>The theoretical goalpost move exactly.

527
00:24:44.680 --> 00:24:48.200
<v Speaker 2>The calculation of the muon's magnetic moment requires accounting for

528
00:24:48.240 --> 00:24:53.000
<v Speaker 2>the hadronic vacuum polarization or HVP. The HDP right the

529
00:24:53.079 --> 00:24:56.559
<v Speaker 2>muon emits a virtual photon which splits into a quark

530
00:24:56.599 --> 00:25:00.720
<v Speaker 2>antiquork pair before recombining. Calculating the the effect of those

531
00:25:00.799 --> 00:25:05.759
<v Speaker 2>quarks is incredibly difficult because perturbative QCD fails at low energies.

532
00:25:05.920 --> 00:25:07.240
<v Speaker 1>So what did theorists do?

533
00:25:07.440 --> 00:25:10.640
<v Speaker 2>For decades, they relied on a data driven dispersive method,

534
00:25:10.960 --> 00:25:15.000
<v Speaker 2>using experimental cross sections from electron positron collisions to estimate

535
00:25:15.000 --> 00:25:15.640
<v Speaker 2>the HVP.

536
00:25:15.920 --> 00:25:19.000
<v Speaker 1>But then, while the experimentalists were running their massive magnet,

537
00:25:19.079 --> 00:25:22.200
<v Speaker 1>a group of theorists known as the BMW Collaboration took

538
00:25:22.200 --> 00:25:23.119
<v Speaker 1>a different approach.

539
00:25:23.440 --> 00:25:27.720
<v Speaker 2>They used supercomputers to calculate the HVP from first principles using.

540
00:25:27.640 --> 00:25:29.480
<v Speaker 1>Lattice qcd lattice qcd.

541
00:25:29.720 --> 00:25:33.519
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they discritized spacetime into a four dimensional grid and

542
00:25:33.680 --> 00:25:37.279
<v Speaker 2>used Monte Carlo simulations to solve the strong force equations

543
00:25:37.319 --> 00:25:38.480
<v Speaker 2>purely mathematically.

544
00:25:38.559 --> 00:25:41.519
<v Speaker 1>And when the BMW Collaboration published their results in twenty

545
00:25:41.559 --> 00:25:45.119
<v Speaker 1>twenty one, their calculation of the HVP actually shifted the

546
00:25:45.119 --> 00:25:46.200
<v Speaker 1>standard model prediction.

547
00:25:46.599 --> 00:25:49.599
<v Speaker 2>It moved the theoretical goalpost right on top of the

548
00:25:49.640 --> 00:25:51.079
<v Speaker 2>experimental measurement.

549
00:25:50.759 --> 00:25:53.799
<v Speaker 1>So the five sigma gap just evaporated completely.

550
00:25:54.039 --> 00:25:57.079
<v Speaker 2>The anomaly died not because we discovered new physics, but

551
00:25:57.119 --> 00:25:59.319
<v Speaker 2>because we finally learned how to do the math correctly.

552
00:25:59.480 --> 00:26:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Wow, a loose cable, a statistical mirage, a miscalculated theory.

553
00:26:04.640 --> 00:26:07.000
<v Speaker 1>We have one ghost left in the graveyard, and this

554
00:26:07.039 --> 00:26:08.440
<v Speaker 1>one hits closest to home.

555
00:26:08.720 --> 00:26:11.039
<v Speaker 2>Because it happened in the exact same sector of physics

556
00:26:11.079 --> 00:26:12.279
<v Speaker 2>we are discussing today. B.

557
00:26:12.440 --> 00:26:16.160
<v Speaker 1>Mason decays at LHCb. This was the RK anomaly.

558
00:26:16.359 --> 00:26:19.000
<v Speaker 2>The RK anomaly was the most compelling evidence for leptin

559
00:26:19.000 --> 00:26:21.279
<v Speaker 2>flavor universality violation we had ever seen.

560
00:26:21.400 --> 00:26:22.279
<v Speaker 1>Okay, what does that mean?

561
00:26:22.400 --> 00:26:24.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, the standard model guarantees that the weak force couples

562
00:26:24.960 --> 00:26:28.640
<v Speaker 2>to electrons, muons, and tawl particles with the exact same.

563
00:26:28.480 --> 00:26:30.799
<v Speaker 1>Strength, only differences their mass exactly.

564
00:26:31.359 --> 00:26:34.559
<v Speaker 2>Therefore, a B masson should decay into a kon and

565
00:26:34.640 --> 00:26:36.920
<v Speaker 2>two neuons at the exact same rate of decays into

566
00:26:36.960 --> 00:26:39.640
<v Speaker 2>a kon and two electrons. Once you correct for the

567
00:26:39.720 --> 00:26:41.720
<v Speaker 2>tiny phase based differences.

568
00:26:41.319 --> 00:26:43.839
<v Speaker 1>The ratio ark should be exactly one.

569
00:26:44.039 --> 00:26:47.839
<v Speaker 2>Right, But for eight years, LHCb reported that the ratio

570
00:26:47.880 --> 00:26:49.240
<v Speaker 2>was round point eighty four.

571
00:26:49.519 --> 00:26:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Meaning the B messins were producing fewer muons than electrons.

572
00:26:53.039 --> 00:26:57.079
<v Speaker 2>Yes, the significance grew steadily, crossing three point one sigma

573
00:26:57.119 --> 00:27:00.640
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty one. Theoretical physicists were drafted the eulogy

574
00:27:00.680 --> 00:27:01.960
<v Speaker 2>for the standard model.

575
00:27:01.880 --> 00:27:05.440
<v Speaker 1>Until December twenty twenty two, when the LHCb collaboration released

576
00:27:05.440 --> 00:27:06.480
<v Speaker 1>a reanalysis and.

577
00:27:06.440 --> 00:27:10.240
<v Speaker 2>The anomaly vanished. Our k snapped perfectly back to one.

578
00:27:10.359 --> 00:27:13.079
<v Speaker 1>And the culprit this time was contamination.

579
00:27:13.039 --> 00:27:17.039
<v Speaker 2>Specifically, the insidious difference between how electrons and muons interact

580
00:27:17.079 --> 00:27:18.079
<v Speaker 2>with detector material.

581
00:27:18.279 --> 00:27:20.559
<v Speaker 1>Explain that because it sounds really technical it is.

582
00:27:20.519 --> 00:27:24.000
<v Speaker 2>But it's important. Neuons are heavy, minimum ionizing particles. They

583
00:27:24.000 --> 00:27:27.759
<v Speaker 2>punch right through the detector, leaving clean, beautiful tracks. Electrons,

584
00:27:27.759 --> 00:27:30.200
<v Speaker 2>on the other hand, are light. When they pass through

585
00:27:30.240 --> 00:27:33.079
<v Speaker 2>the silicon trackers, they undergo Brimstrallen.

586
00:27:32.559 --> 00:27:35.319
<v Speaker 1>Which means they radiate photons and lose energy.

587
00:27:35.559 --> 00:27:38.839
<v Speaker 2>Right So to reconstruct the electrons true energy, you have

588
00:27:38.920 --> 00:27:42.440
<v Speaker 2>to find those bremstrall On photons in the electromagnetic calorimeter

589
00:27:42.799 --> 00:27:45.279
<v Speaker 2>and add their energy back to the electron track.

590
00:27:45.119 --> 00:27:47.720
<v Speaker 1>Can I imagine? That process is incredibly messy.

591
00:27:47.920 --> 00:27:51.119
<v Speaker 2>It's a nightmare if you mismodel the energy recovery, or

592
00:27:51.160 --> 00:27:54.319
<v Speaker 2>if a background process like a cascade decay or a

593
00:27:54.400 --> 00:27:58.720
<v Speaker 2>misidentified hadron masquerades as an electron, it bleeds into your

594
00:27:58.759 --> 00:27:59.480
<v Speaker 2>signal region.

595
00:27:59.799 --> 00:28:02.480
<v Speaker 1>The background was contaminating the signal exactly.

596
00:28:02.920 --> 00:28:06.599
<v Speaker 2>The LCB team realized their background modeling for the electron

597
00:28:06.720 --> 00:28:11.359
<v Speaker 2>channels in certain chematic regimes had subtly underestimated these effects, and.

598
00:28:11.319 --> 00:28:15.240
<v Speaker 1>When they corrected the background models, the entire anomaly evaporated.

599
00:28:15.440 --> 00:28:16.759
<v Speaker 2>They killed their own discovery.

600
00:28:17.000 --> 00:28:20.440
<v Speaker 1>It was a brutal display of scientific integrity, honestly, but

601
00:28:20.519 --> 00:28:23.200
<v Speaker 1>it reinforced the ironclad rule of the graveyard.

602
00:28:23.400 --> 00:28:24.960
<v Speaker 2>You must survive the gauntlet.

603
00:28:25.200 --> 00:28:29.160
<v Speaker 1>Every new anomaly. It must be aggressively interrogated for hardware failures,

604
00:28:29.200 --> 00:28:33.799
<v Speaker 1>statistical flukes, theoretical miscalculations, and background contamination.

605
00:28:34.039 --> 00:28:37.039
<v Speaker 2>Right, which finally brings us back to the present. We

606
00:28:37.079 --> 00:28:39.720
<v Speaker 2>have this four sigma anomaly in the P five prime

607
00:28:39.839 --> 00:28:41.519
<v Speaker 2>angular distribution, and.

608
00:28:41.440 --> 00:28:43.839
<v Speaker 1>What makes it so terrifying to theorists is that it

609
00:28:43.880 --> 00:28:47.559
<v Speaker 1>has been dragged through this exact execution gauntlet and it

610
00:28:47.599 --> 00:28:48.599
<v Speaker 1>refuses to die.

611
00:28:48.839 --> 00:28:52.200
<v Speaker 2>Let's run the checklist. Is it a hardware artifact like Opera.

612
00:28:52.880 --> 00:28:55.920
<v Speaker 1>No, because CMS, which sits on the opposite side of

613
00:28:55.960 --> 00:29:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the twenty seven kilometer ring, uses an entirely different tracker topology,

614
00:29:00.119 --> 00:29:03.599
<v Speaker 1>different magnetic field mapping, and different trigger algorithms, analyze their

615
00:29:03.640 --> 00:29:04.440
<v Speaker 1>own data.

616
00:29:04.599 --> 00:29:07.559
<v Speaker 2>And they saw the exact same angular lean. It is

617
00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:09.799
<v Speaker 2>not an LHCb machine error.

618
00:29:10.000 --> 00:29:13.000
<v Speaker 1>Right Okay. Next, is it the look elsewhere effect like

619
00:29:13.039 --> 00:29:14.440
<v Speaker 1>the seven to fifty GV bump.

620
00:29:14.559 --> 00:29:17.720
<v Speaker 2>No, because we aren't scanning a blind mass range looking

621
00:29:17.759 --> 00:29:21.440
<v Speaker 2>for a random bump. P five prime is a targeted observable.

622
00:29:21.720 --> 00:29:24.279
<v Speaker 1>Furthermore, this anomaly hasn't dissolved with more data.

623
00:29:24.440 --> 00:29:26.680
<v Speaker 2>No, it appeared in the twenty thirteen data set. It

624
00:29:26.720 --> 00:29:29.759
<v Speaker 2>persisted in the twenty fifteen update. It held strong in

625
00:29:29.799 --> 00:29:30.960
<v Speaker 2>the twenty twenty analysis.

626
00:29:31.000 --> 00:29:34.240
<v Speaker 1>The statistical fluctuation does not hold its shape across independent

627
00:29:34.319 --> 00:29:35.519
<v Speaker 1>data sets over a decade.

628
00:29:35.559 --> 00:29:36.200
<v Speaker 2>It really doesn't.

629
00:29:36.279 --> 00:29:40.119
<v Speaker 1>Okay, what about RK contamination? Could background particles be faking

630
00:29:40.119 --> 00:29:40.640
<v Speaker 1>the signal?

631
00:29:40.880 --> 00:29:45.200
<v Speaker 2>Highly unlikely. The P five prime analysis relies exclusively on muans,

632
00:29:45.519 --> 00:29:49.759
<v Speaker 2>completely sidestepping the bremstrawling nightmare that plagued the electron channels

633
00:29:49.759 --> 00:29:50.079
<v Speaker 2>in URK.

634
00:29:50.799 --> 00:29:53.880
<v Speaker 1>So the dimuon backgrounds are incredibly well understood and the

635
00:29:53.880 --> 00:29:58.599
<v Speaker 1>invariant mass peaks are pristinely clean, which leaves the final boss,

636
00:29:59.319 --> 00:30:04.599
<v Speaker 1>the muon two death moving the goalposts is the theoretical

637
00:30:04.640 --> 00:30:06.799
<v Speaker 1>prediction of P five prime simply won.

638
00:30:07.000 --> 00:30:09.839
<v Speaker 2>Ah. This brings us to the most contentious debate in

639
00:30:09.920 --> 00:30:12.920
<v Speaker 2>flavor physics today, the charming penguins.

640
00:30:13.039 --> 00:30:14.799
<v Speaker 1>Charming penguins, I love that name.

641
00:30:14.960 --> 00:30:18.799
<v Speaker 2>It's great, but scientifically, the charming penguins are the mundane

642
00:30:18.880 --> 00:30:22.640
<v Speaker 2>explanation of last resort. How so well. We said earlier

643
00:30:22.680 --> 00:30:25.279
<v Speaker 2>that new heavy particles could be running in the quantum loop,

644
00:30:25.759 --> 00:30:28.680
<v Speaker 2>but the loop can also be populated by ordinary standard

645
00:30:28.680 --> 00:30:32.079
<v Speaker 2>model particles, specifically charm and anti charm quarks.

646
00:30:32.240 --> 00:30:35.480
<v Speaker 1>So the bottom quark decays, emitting a virtual photon that

647
00:30:35.519 --> 00:30:39.039
<v Speaker 1>briefly turns into a charm anti charm pair before annihilating

648
00:30:39.079 --> 00:30:40.440
<v Speaker 1>into the two muons.

649
00:30:40.079 --> 00:30:43.160
<v Speaker 2>Exactly, But the charm quarks aren't free. They are operating

650
00:30:43.160 --> 00:30:44.920
<v Speaker 2>in the non perturbative regime of.

651
00:30:44.839 --> 00:30:47.359
<v Speaker 1>The strong force, meaning things get messy.

652
00:30:47.079 --> 00:30:51.119
<v Speaker 2>Again very The charm anti charm loop can resonate, essentially

653
00:30:51.160 --> 00:30:55.559
<v Speaker 2>forming virtual JPCA or cy two s particles that interfere

654
00:30:55.559 --> 00:30:57.559
<v Speaker 2>with the short distance physics we are trying to measure.

655
00:30:57.640 --> 00:30:59.960
<v Speaker 1>These are called non factorizable charm loop.

656
00:30:59.759 --> 00:31:04.039
<v Speaker 2>Aff yes, and calculating them as a nightmare. Theorists use

657
00:31:04.079 --> 00:31:07.240
<v Speaker 2>techniques like light cone sum rules to estimate their contribution,

658
00:31:07.759 --> 00:31:10.480
<v Speaker 2>but the error bars are inherently fuzzy.

659
00:31:10.920 --> 00:31:14.440
<v Speaker 1>So the critical question dividing the community is this, can

660
00:31:14.519 --> 00:31:18.519
<v Speaker 1>a mathematically perverse fluctuation in the charm loop mimic the

661
00:31:18.559 --> 00:31:21.559
<v Speaker 1>exact angular shifts we're seeing in P five prime?

662
00:31:21.759 --> 00:31:24.720
<v Speaker 2>Right? Can the charm loop fake the signature of new physics?

663
00:31:24.799 --> 00:31:26.000
<v Speaker 1>And what do the theorists say?

664
00:31:26.119 --> 00:31:28.799
<v Speaker 2>The ones who build P five prime argue that while

665
00:31:28.880 --> 00:31:31.440
<v Speaker 2>charm loops can shift, the overall rate of the decay

666
00:31:31.759 --> 00:31:35.240
<v Speaker 2>their specific phase based geometry. How they depend on the

667
00:31:35.279 --> 00:31:39.160
<v Speaker 2>dimuon mass q squared doesn't match the coherent shift seen

668
00:31:39.200 --> 00:31:39.960
<v Speaker 2>across the bins.

669
00:31:40.079 --> 00:31:41.799
<v Speaker 1>So to make the charm loop fit the data, you

670
00:31:41.839 --> 00:31:44.839
<v Speaker 1>have to stretch the hadronic parameters far beyond what rigorous

671
00:31:44.839 --> 00:31:46.920
<v Speaker 1>strong force mathematics normally allows.

672
00:31:47.160 --> 00:31:50.440
<v Speaker 2>Exactly, But the door isn't closed. It is the final

673
00:31:50.599 --> 00:31:52.640
<v Speaker 2>unresolved systematic.

674
00:31:52.279 --> 00:31:54.920
<v Speaker 1>Either Nature is speaking to us through a new fundamental

675
00:31:54.920 --> 00:31:59.160
<v Speaker 1>particle or the standard models accounting of non factorizable charm

676
00:31:59.200 --> 00:32:03.000
<v Speaker 1>effects is far more chaotic than our current theoretical tools

677
00:32:03.000 --> 00:32:03.720
<v Speaker 1>can compute.

678
00:32:03.799 --> 00:32:06.279
<v Speaker 2>But there is a piece of evidence that makes the

679
00:32:06.359 --> 00:32:10.519
<v Speaker 2>charm loop excuse feel insufficient. What's that The P five

680
00:32:10.640 --> 00:32:14.200
<v Speaker 2>prime anomaly is not happening in a vacuum. It is

681
00:32:14.240 --> 00:32:17.319
<v Speaker 2>part of a wider conspiracy of data that theorists call

682
00:32:17.559 --> 00:32:18.480
<v Speaker 2>the flavor puzzle.

683
00:32:18.599 --> 00:32:21.920
<v Speaker 1>Right, because while LHCb has been watching nuons, another set

684
00:32:21.920 --> 00:32:25.400
<v Speaker 1>of anomalies has been quietly brewing, involving the tau leptin.

685
00:32:25.799 --> 00:32:27.839
<v Speaker 2>We need to talk about our d and already star Okay,

686
00:32:27.839 --> 00:32:30.279
<v Speaker 2>break those down. These are decays where a B missin

687
00:32:30.400 --> 00:32:33.599
<v Speaker 2>transforms into a D messin accompanied by a tawe leptin

688
00:32:33.640 --> 00:32:36.519
<v Speaker 2>and a towel neutrino Okay, Unlike the penguin loop, this

689
00:32:36.559 --> 00:32:39.559
<v Speaker 2>is a tree level decay mediated by a w boson.

690
00:32:40.079 --> 00:32:43.599
<v Speaker 2>The standard model prediction for this rate is highly robust.

691
00:32:43.200 --> 00:32:45.559
<v Speaker 1>And the talleptin, just as a reminder, is the third

692
00:32:45.599 --> 00:32:47.920
<v Speaker 1>generation's sibling of the electron and neuon.

693
00:32:48.119 --> 00:32:50.839
<v Speaker 2>It is identical in its quantum numbers, but it is massive.

694
00:32:51.079 --> 00:32:53.119
<v Speaker 2>It weighs almost twice as much as a proton.

695
00:32:52.920 --> 00:32:56.119
<v Speaker 1>And experiments across the globe, not just LHCb but also

696
00:32:56.240 --> 00:33:00.440
<v Speaker 1>Babar in California and Bell in Japan, have consistently measured

697
00:33:00.440 --> 00:33:02.759
<v Speaker 1>in excess of talleptans in these decays.

698
00:33:02.880 --> 00:33:07.039
<v Speaker 2>Right, the statistical significance when combined hovers around three to

699
00:33:07.079 --> 00:33:07.720
<v Speaker 2>four sigma.

700
00:33:07.880 --> 00:33:10.680
<v Speaker 1>The b missons are decaying into taois more often than

701
00:33:10.759 --> 00:33:13.039
<v Speaker 1>leptin flavor universality.

702
00:33:12.319 --> 00:33:14.559
<v Speaker 2>Allows exactly, and this is where the architecture of the

703
00:33:14.559 --> 00:33:16.240
<v Speaker 2>anomaly comes into focus.

704
00:33:16.319 --> 00:33:19.599
<v Speaker 1>You have an anomaly in the loop level decays involving nuons.

705
00:33:19.759 --> 00:33:22.119
<v Speaker 2>You have a separate anomaly in the tree level decays

706
00:33:22.160 --> 00:33:23.079
<v Speaker 2>involving taos.

707
00:33:23.200 --> 00:33:27.240
<v Speaker 1>They occur in completely different kinematic regimes, with completely different

708
00:33:27.279 --> 00:33:29.039
<v Speaker 1>experimental systematics, but.

709
00:33:29.000 --> 00:33:31.559
<v Speaker 2>They both point to exactly the same structural pillar of

710
00:33:31.559 --> 00:33:35.400
<v Speaker 2>the standard model leptin flavor universality.

711
00:33:34.799 --> 00:33:37.400
<v Speaker 1>Which is the exact pillar that has lacked a theoretical

712
00:33:37.440 --> 00:33:39.240
<v Speaker 1>foundation since nineteen thirty six.

713
00:33:39.519 --> 00:33:43.119
<v Speaker 2>Yes, when they discovered the muon in cosmic rays, isad

714
00:33:43.200 --> 00:33:45.119
<v Speaker 2>Or Robbie famously asked who ordered that?

715
00:33:45.400 --> 00:33:48.240
<v Speaker 1>Because the standard model just dictates that matter comes in

716
00:33:48.319 --> 00:33:52.079
<v Speaker 1>three identical generations, the electron, the muon, and the tao,

717
00:33:52.160 --> 00:33:57.039
<v Speaker 1>with wildly escalating masses, but offers zero underlying mechanism for

718
00:33:57.160 --> 00:33:58.240
<v Speaker 1>why there are three.

719
00:33:58.400 --> 00:34:00.839
<v Speaker 2>Or why their masses are organized way. It's just a

720
00:34:00.920 --> 00:34:02.279
<v Speaker 2>parameter plugged in by hand.

721
00:34:02.519 --> 00:34:05.559
<v Speaker 1>But if these anomalies hold, they suggest that the different

722
00:34:05.599 --> 00:34:10.079
<v Speaker 1>generations of leptin's actually experience different fundamental interactions.

723
00:34:10.320 --> 00:34:13.599
<v Speaker 2>If the standard model is breaking, it is breaking exactly

724
00:34:13.639 --> 00:34:17.159
<v Speaker 2>where the deepest unresolved mysteries of matter reside.

725
00:34:17.519 --> 00:34:20.960
<v Speaker 1>So we have to perform the ultimate theoretical exercise. Okay,

726
00:34:21.199 --> 00:34:23.920
<v Speaker 1>if we assume the charm loop calculations are correct and

727
00:34:23.960 --> 00:34:27.679
<v Speaker 1>the statistics hold and P five prime actually hits five sigma,

728
00:34:27.760 --> 00:34:29.920
<v Speaker 1>what is actually running in that quantum loop?

729
00:34:30.159 --> 00:34:32.039
<v Speaker 2>We need to look at the mathematics of the effective

730
00:34:32.039 --> 00:34:33.480
<v Speaker 2>field theory or EFT.

731
00:34:34.039 --> 00:34:37.360
<v Speaker 1>Right when theorists look at P five prime. They don't

732
00:34:37.360 --> 00:34:41.119
<v Speaker 1>guess particles right away. They use EFT to measure shifts

733
00:34:41.159 --> 00:34:43.039
<v Speaker 1>in what they call Wilson coefficients.

734
00:34:43.440 --> 00:34:47.199
<v Speaker 2>Specifically, the data points to a massive negative shift in

735
00:34:47.280 --> 00:34:50.840
<v Speaker 2>a coefficient called C nine, which governs the vector coupling

736
00:34:50.880 --> 00:34:51.960
<v Speaker 2>of the mues.

737
00:34:51.679 --> 00:34:54.159
<v Speaker 1>And possibly a shift in C ten, which governs the

738
00:34:54.159 --> 00:34:55.239
<v Speaker 1>axial vector coupling.

739
00:34:55.280 --> 00:34:58.800
<v Speaker 2>The mathematical signature is incredibly specific a shift in C

740
00:34:58.960 --> 00:35:01.519
<v Speaker 2>nine that applies to mules but not to electrons.

741
00:35:01.679 --> 00:35:05.880
<v Speaker 1>So what kind of new physical particle generates that exact

742
00:35:05.960 --> 00:35:07.920
<v Speaker 1>shift in the Wilson coefficients.

743
00:35:08.559 --> 00:35:11.519
<v Speaker 2>The literature provides two primary candidates.

744
00:35:11.599 --> 00:35:14.039
<v Speaker 1>The first is a particle that directly connects the two

745
00:35:14.039 --> 00:35:17.119
<v Speaker 1>distinct halves of the standard model, the eleptoqork.

746
00:35:17.760 --> 00:35:20.840
<v Speaker 2>To understand how radical ELLIPTICQ work is, you have to

747
00:35:20.880 --> 00:35:24.079
<v Speaker 2>understand that the standard model treats quarks, which feel the

748
00:35:24.119 --> 00:35:28.400
<v Speaker 2>strong force, and leptins, which don't, as completely segregated kingdoms.

749
00:35:28.519 --> 00:35:31.800
<v Speaker 1>They do not mix. Elliptin cannot transform into a quark, but.

750
00:35:31.840 --> 00:35:34.719
<v Speaker 2>ELLIPTICQ work is a hypothetical gauge boson that carries both

751
00:35:34.800 --> 00:35:37.239
<v Speaker 2>color charge like a quark and leptin number.

752
00:35:37.320 --> 00:35:40.199
<v Speaker 1>It would literally allow a bottom quark to emit ellipticquark

753
00:35:40.280 --> 00:35:42.239
<v Speaker 1>and instantly transform into a muon.

754
00:35:42.480 --> 00:35:46.320
<v Speaker 2>Yes, this particle would act as the exact bridge needed

755
00:35:46.360 --> 00:35:50.400
<v Speaker 2>to explain the B messin anomalies, generating the exact required

756
00:35:50.440 --> 00:35:52.360
<v Speaker 2>shift in the C nine Wilson coefficient.

757
00:35:52.440 --> 00:35:55.960
<v Speaker 1>But the implications go way beyond B messins are beyond

758
00:35:56.199 --> 00:35:59.280
<v Speaker 1>If leptoquarks exist, it proves that quarks and leptons are

759
00:35:59.320 --> 00:36:03.480
<v Speaker 1>not fundamentally distinct. It points directly to grand unified theories

760
00:36:03.519 --> 00:36:05.519
<v Speaker 1>like the Potty Salam model or SU five.

761
00:36:05.760 --> 00:36:08.559
<v Speaker 2>Right in the Potty Salam model, leptin number is essentially

762
00:36:08.559 --> 00:36:10.880
<v Speaker 2>treated as a fourth color of the strong force.

763
00:36:11.079 --> 00:36:14.800
<v Speaker 1>At everyday energy scales, the symmetry is broken and leptins

764
00:36:14.800 --> 00:36:15.519
<v Speaker 1>seem distinct.

765
00:36:15.920 --> 00:36:20.039
<v Speaker 2>But at ultra high energies the energies present moments after

766
00:36:20.079 --> 00:36:24.440
<v Speaker 2>the Big Bang, quarks and leptins unify into a single multiplate.

767
00:36:25.000 --> 00:36:27.440
<v Speaker 1>So finding ellepticquork in the penguin loop would be the

768
00:36:27.480 --> 00:36:31.719
<v Speaker 1>first empirical proof that the fundamental forces of nature unify

769
00:36:31.880 --> 00:36:32.719
<v Speaker 1>at high energies.

770
00:36:32.800 --> 00:36:35.599
<v Speaker 2>It would be the most profound discovery since the realization

771
00:36:35.719 --> 00:36:37.599
<v Speaker 2>that electricity and magnetism were.

772
00:36:37.480 --> 00:36:40.000
<v Speaker 1>The same force, which is just staggering to think about it.

773
00:36:40.119 --> 00:36:40.679
<v Speaker 2>It really is.

774
00:36:40.840 --> 00:36:42.840
<v Speaker 1>But there is a second candidate that fits the C

775
00:36:42.960 --> 00:36:46.360
<v Speaker 1>nine shift perfectly, and it doesn't unify the forces, it adds.

776
00:36:46.119 --> 00:36:48.360
<v Speaker 2>A new one, the Z prime Boson.

777
00:36:48.079 --> 00:36:49.960
<v Speaker 1>The Z prime explain what that means well, The.

778
00:36:50.039 --> 00:36:53.760
<v Speaker 2>Z prime represents a fifth fundamental force of nature. We

779
00:36:53.800 --> 00:36:57.039
<v Speaker 2>know the z boson mediates the weak nuclear force. A

780
00:36:57.199 --> 00:36:59.920
<v Speaker 2>Z prime would be a heavier, undiscovered cousin.

781
00:37:00.159 --> 00:37:03.440
<v Speaker 1>But to fit our anomaly, this new force cannot couple

782
00:37:03.480 --> 00:37:04.639
<v Speaker 1>to matter universally.

783
00:37:04.880 --> 00:37:08.000
<v Speaker 2>No, it must be anominally free in the gauge structure,

784
00:37:08.320 --> 00:37:11.880
<v Speaker 2>meaning it requires a very specific mathematical symmetry. The most

785
00:37:11.920 --> 00:37:15.280
<v Speaker 2>popular model is the U one l mu minus Eltau

786
00:37:15.400 --> 00:37:16.760
<v Speaker 2>gage symmetry.

787
00:37:16.400 --> 00:37:19.440
<v Speaker 1>Which translates to a force that only interacts with muons

788
00:37:19.480 --> 00:37:22.639
<v Speaker 1>in tau particles, completely ignoring electrons and quarks of the

789
00:37:22.639 --> 00:37:23.280
<v Speaker 1>first generation.

790
00:37:23.400 --> 00:37:27.119
<v Speaker 2>Precisely, it is a hidden fifth force of nature that

791
00:37:27.199 --> 00:37:31.199
<v Speaker 2>has been acting invisibly since the dawn of time, exclusively

792
00:37:31.280 --> 00:37:34.320
<v Speaker 2>shaping the interactions of the heavier generations of matter.

793
00:37:34.519 --> 00:37:37.519
<v Speaker 1>So, because we are made of first generation matter up quarks,

794
00:37:37.639 --> 00:37:41.760
<v Speaker 1>down quarks and electrons, we would never even feel it exactly.

795
00:37:42.400 --> 00:37:45.760
<v Speaker 2>It only manifests its presence in the fleeting moments when

796
00:37:45.840 --> 00:37:50.000
<v Speaker 2>heavy particles like b messens decay subtly, bending their trajectories

797
00:37:50.039 --> 00:37:51.840
<v Speaker 2>in the LHCb detector.

798
00:37:51.679 --> 00:37:55.159
<v Speaker 1>A unified root of all matter or a fifth fundamental force.

799
00:37:55.480 --> 00:37:58.880
<v Speaker 1>These aren't science fiction concepts. These are the conservative, mathematically

800
00:37:58.960 --> 00:38:02.360
<v Speaker 1>necessary models required to explain a localized drift in an

801
00:38:02.400 --> 00:38:03.519
<v Speaker 1>angular distribution.

802
00:38:03.800 --> 00:38:06.079
<v Speaker 2>And if you think it's absurd that a microscopic shift

803
00:38:06.119 --> 00:38:08.840
<v Speaker 2>in a decay angle could rewrite the universe, you have

804
00:38:08.880 --> 00:38:10.320
<v Speaker 2>to remember the historical.

805
00:38:09.920 --> 00:38:12.519
<v Speaker 1>Precedent, the precession of the perihelion of Mercury.

806
00:38:13.000 --> 00:38:17.239
<v Speaker 2>Exactly in the eighteen fifties, the French astronomer Urvan Leverrier

807
00:38:17.559 --> 00:38:20.800
<v Speaker 2>analyzed the orbit of Mercury and found that its closest

808
00:38:20.840 --> 00:38:22.760
<v Speaker 2>approach to the Sun was drifting.

809
00:38:23.360 --> 00:38:26.239
<v Speaker 1>Newton's laws of gravitation, accounting for the tug of all

810
00:38:26.239 --> 00:38:30.280
<v Speaker 1>other planets, predicted the drift perfectly, except for a microscopic

811
00:38:30.280 --> 00:38:32.880
<v Speaker 1>discrepancy of forty three arc seconds per century.

812
00:38:33.199 --> 00:38:37.079
<v Speaker 2>Forty three arcseconds an angle so vanishingly small it is

813
00:38:37.119 --> 00:38:40.440
<v Speaker 2>almost incomprehensible, but it was statistically significant.

814
00:38:40.559 --> 00:38:43.760
<v Speaker 1>The scientific establishment at the time did exactly what they should.

815
00:38:44.039 --> 00:38:45.920
<v Speaker 1>They looked for a mundane explanation.

816
00:38:46.320 --> 00:38:49.960
<v Speaker 2>They assumed Newton's laws were slawless, so they hypothesized a

817
00:38:50.000 --> 00:38:54.159
<v Speaker 2>hidden planet interior to Mercury, which they named Vulcan, causing

818
00:38:54.159 --> 00:38:54.800
<v Speaker 2>the perturbation.

819
00:38:55.119 --> 00:38:57.840
<v Speaker 1>They spent half a century pointing telescopes at the Sun

820
00:38:57.880 --> 00:39:00.880
<v Speaker 1>looking for Vulcan. It was their version of the charming penguins.

821
00:39:00.920 --> 00:39:04.119
<v Speaker 2>That's a perfect comparison. But Vulcan didn't exist. The forty

822
00:39:04.119 --> 00:39:06.599
<v Speaker 2>three arc seconds wasn't a missing planet, it was the

823
00:39:06.599 --> 00:39:08.920
<v Speaker 2>mathematical breakdown of Newtonian gravity.

824
00:39:09.039 --> 00:39:12.639
<v Speaker 1>Right in nineteen fifteen, Albert Einstein published the Field Equations

825
00:39:12.679 --> 00:39:14.199
<v Speaker 1>of General Relativity, and.

826
00:39:14.159 --> 00:39:17.599
<v Speaker 2>When he calculated the orbit of Mercury using curved space

827
00:39:17.679 --> 00:39:22.320
<v Speaker 2>time rather than Newtonian attraction, the forty three arcseconds emerged

828
00:39:22.360 --> 00:39:23.440
<v Speaker 2>perfectly from the math.

829
00:39:23.920 --> 00:39:27.280
<v Speaker 1>That microscopic anomaly was the first visible edge of a

830
00:39:27.320 --> 00:39:31.199
<v Speaker 1>paradigm shift that gave us black holes, the expanding universe,

831
00:39:31.599 --> 00:39:32.360
<v Speaker 1>and the Big Bang.

832
00:39:32.719 --> 00:39:36.719
<v Speaker 2>History demonstrates unequivocally that when a fundamental theory of nature

833
00:39:36.800 --> 00:39:39.559
<v Speaker 2>is breaking, it does not shatter all at once. It

834
00:39:39.559 --> 00:39:43.400
<v Speaker 2>announces its failure through small, stubborn numbers that refuse to

835
00:39:43.440 --> 00:39:45.119
<v Speaker 2>align with the theoretical map.

836
00:39:45.280 --> 00:39:47.639
<v Speaker 1>The four sigma drift in P five prime is our

837
00:39:47.679 --> 00:39:48.840
<v Speaker 1>forty three arcseconds.

838
00:39:48.920 --> 00:39:49.519
<v Speaker 2>It really is.

839
00:39:49.840 --> 00:39:52.199
<v Speaker 1>And what makes this moment so exhilarating is that we

840
00:39:52.239 --> 00:39:54.800
<v Speaker 1>are not trapped in a theoretical limbo. We do not

841
00:39:54.880 --> 00:39:57.119
<v Speaker 1>have to wait fifty years for ein Einstein to solve this.

842
00:39:57.679 --> 00:39:59.880
<v Speaker 1>The machinery of resolution is currently operating.

843
00:40:00.159 --> 00:40:02.800
<v Speaker 2>The data required to push this anomaly over the five

844
00:40:02.840 --> 00:40:05.920
<v Speaker 2>sigma discovery threshold or to bury it forever in the

845
00:40:05.920 --> 00:40:07.360
<v Speaker 2>graveyard has already.

846
00:40:07.119 --> 00:40:10.519
<v Speaker 1>Been collected right Because the LACB detector recently underwent a

847
00:40:10.519 --> 00:40:12.719
<v Speaker 1>massive upgrade for Run three.

848
00:40:12.360 --> 00:40:15.880
<v Speaker 2>They remove the hardware trigger entirely. They are now operating

849
00:40:15.920 --> 00:40:19.440
<v Speaker 2>a fully software based trigger system, reading out collisions at

850
00:40:19.440 --> 00:40:24.000
<v Speaker 2>thirty megahertz and using GPU farms to reconstruct tracks in

851
00:40:24.079 --> 00:40:24.599
<v Speaker 2>real time.

852
00:40:24.840 --> 00:40:28.559
<v Speaker 1>They have accumulated vast swaths of new data. Millions of

853
00:40:28.639 --> 00:40:31.039
<v Speaker 1>new decays are sitting on server farms.

854
00:40:31.000 --> 00:40:34.719
<v Speaker 2>But the data is currently locked inside blinded analysis frameworks.

855
00:40:35.000 --> 00:40:39.360
<v Speaker 1>The experimentalists are scrutinizing their background models, validating their efficiencies,

856
00:40:39.519 --> 00:40:41.679
<v Speaker 1>and fighting over systematic uncertainties.

857
00:40:41.800 --> 00:40:44.039
<v Speaker 2>The universe has already cast its vote. We are just

858
00:40:44.159 --> 00:40:46.840
<v Speaker 2>verifying the counting machines before we look at the tally.

859
00:40:46.679 --> 00:40:50.000
<v Speaker 1>Within the next few years, the unblinding protocol will happen again.

860
00:40:50.360 --> 00:40:53.960
<v Speaker 1>The encrypted offset will be removed, the distribution will populate

861
00:40:53.960 --> 00:40:54.400
<v Speaker 1>the screen.

862
00:40:54.800 --> 00:40:57.519
<v Speaker 2>If the lian is flattened out, the anomaly joins the

863
00:40:57.559 --> 00:41:00.559
<v Speaker 2>difoton excess and the oper neutrinos in the graveyard.

864
00:41:00.679 --> 00:41:03.239
<v Speaker 1>The Standard Model survives, and the nightmare of if its

865
00:41:03.239 --> 00:41:04.400
<v Speaker 1>perfection continues.

866
00:41:04.559 --> 00:41:08.199
<v Speaker 2>But if the lean sharkens, if the error bars shrink,

867
00:41:08.519 --> 00:41:10.639
<v Speaker 2>and the deviation crosses five sigma, it.

868
00:41:10.639 --> 00:41:13.360
<v Speaker 1>Will be the most profound moment in particle physics since

869
00:41:13.400 --> 00:41:15.679
<v Speaker 1>the discovery of the W and Z bosons.

870
00:41:16.079 --> 00:41:19.599
<v Speaker 2>It will empirically prove that the map of reality we

871
00:41:19.639 --> 00:41:22.039
<v Speaker 2>have used for fifty years has an edge.

872
00:41:22.119 --> 00:41:25.920
<v Speaker 1>It will launch a furious multi decade race to build

873
00:41:26.000 --> 00:41:30.000
<v Speaker 1>higher energy machines like muon colliders or one hundred TV

874
00:41:30.199 --> 00:41:34.199
<v Speaker 1>circular colliders to drag the leptoquork or the z prime

875
00:41:34.280 --> 00:41:36.679
<v Speaker 1>out of the quantum loop and produce it as a real,

876
00:41:37.280 --> 00:41:38.679
<v Speaker 1>measurable particle.

877
00:41:39.000 --> 00:41:41.119
<v Speaker 2>It would mark the end of the Standard Model era

878
00:41:41.559 --> 00:41:44.920
<v Speaker 2>and the beginning of whatever physics governs the true deeper

879
00:41:44.960 --> 00:41:46.159
<v Speaker 2>reality of the universe.

880
00:41:46.480 --> 00:41:49.039
<v Speaker 1>It is the exact threshold we have been waiting to

881
00:41:49.079 --> 00:41:51.320
<v Speaker 1>cross since we realize the universe shouldn't exist in the

882
00:41:51.320 --> 00:41:54.639
<v Speaker 1>first place, absolutely, from a dartboard in Geneva to the

883
00:41:54.719 --> 00:41:58.400
<v Speaker 1>absolute limits of human knowledge. The air near the floorboards

884
00:41:58.400 --> 00:42:00.960
<v Speaker 1>of the Standard Model is moving, and we are finally

885
00:42:01.000 --> 00:42:03.639
<v Speaker 1>close enough to feel the draft. We really are, which

886
00:42:03.679 --> 00:42:06.000
<v Speaker 1>brings us to the end of our discussion. Today. We've

887
00:42:06.039 --> 00:42:09.000
<v Speaker 1>walked through the perturbative nightmares of the Standard Model, the

888
00:42:09.039 --> 00:42:13.239
<v Speaker 1>brutal graveyard of statistical ghosts, the blinding protocols of LHCb,

889
00:42:13.800 --> 00:42:17.440
<v Speaker 1>and the mind bending reality of leptoquarks and fifth forces

890
00:42:17.519 --> 00:42:19.199
<v Speaker 1>hiding inside a Penguin diagram.

891
00:42:19.440 --> 00:42:22.840
<v Speaker 2>The tension right now in the physics community is genuinely historic.

892
00:42:23.679 --> 00:42:26.280
<v Speaker 2>We are standing on the precipice of a paradigm shift,

893
00:42:26.559 --> 00:42:29.079
<v Speaker 2>armed only with the angular geometry of a particle that

894
00:42:29.159 --> 00:42:30.920
<v Speaker 2>lives for a trillionth of a second.

895
00:42:31.199 --> 00:42:33.320
<v Speaker 1>And this is where we turn the analysis over to you.

896
00:42:34.119 --> 00:42:37.480
<v Speaker 1>We've laid out the theoretical frameworks and the experimental caveats.

897
00:42:37.920 --> 00:42:41.039
<v Speaker 1>Where do you stand on the b Messin anomaly.

898
00:42:41.280 --> 00:42:44.280
<v Speaker 2>Are we looking at a profound failure of how we

899
00:42:44.400 --> 00:42:48.880
<v Speaker 2>calculate non factorizable charm loops destined to be another headstone

900
00:42:48.880 --> 00:42:50.280
<v Speaker 2>in the graveyard, or is.

901
00:42:50.239 --> 00:42:52.559
<v Speaker 1>This our forty three arc seconds. Are we feeling the

902
00:42:52.559 --> 00:42:56.199
<v Speaker 1>gravitational pull of elliptic quark or a hidden U one

903
00:42:56.239 --> 00:42:58.719
<v Speaker 1>gage symmetry operating just beyond our reach.

904
00:42:58.920 --> 00:42:59.960
<v Speaker 2>We want to know what you think.

905
00:43:00.199 --> 00:43:02.360
<v Speaker 1>Dive into the comments and let us know your verdict

906
00:43:02.440 --> 00:43:03.800
<v Speaker 1>on the edge of the Standard Model.

907
00:43:03.920 --> 00:43:06.199
<v Speaker 2>It is always a privilege to dissect these frontiers of

908
00:43:06.199 --> 00:43:06.960
<v Speaker 2>physics with you.

909
00:43:07.079 --> 00:43:09.440
<v Speaker 1>Keep your eyes on the data releases for the run three,

910
00:43:09.599 --> 00:43:14.239
<v Speaker 1>unblinding until our next thrilling threads discussion. Remember that the

911
00:43:14.280 --> 00:43:18.239
<v Speaker 1>most profound secrets of the universe rarely announce themselves loudly.

912
00:43:18.760 --> 00:43:21.440
<v Speaker 1>They usually hide in the fifth decimal place of a joke.

913
00:43:21.920 --> 00:43:22.679
<v Speaker 1>See you next time.