Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I'm your host,
Corey Evans. This week's show is titled twenty twenty five
bounce Back Candidates. I have five names we either underachieved
in twenty twenty four based on performance or expectations, and
I think are in store to rebound and value for
the twenty twenty five regular season. Before I get to that,
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twenty twenty four rookie draft rede I did last week
one point oh one to one point twelve, this week
two point oh one to two point twelve, and then
next week three point one three point twelve would get
a good pulse or feel for where I have the
twenty twenty four rookies now ranked as they approach their
sophomore seasons. All right, So twenty twenty five bounce back
candidates Up first is a quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Twenty twenty
four was easily Lawrence's worst NFL campaign two date due
to his inefficiency as a passer and injuries. He had
a shoulder ailment that resulted in an ac joint surgery,
and then also that late season concussion thirty hit that
he sustained. It looked brutal. He is apparently passed that. Fortunately.
It made sense, however, for Jacksonville to shut down Lawrence
just based on where they were out of playoff contention
and all the injuries a team sustained on the offensive
side of the football. With Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis Evan Ingram,
Lawrence's stats in twenty twenty four or two thousand, forty
five yards passing eleven touchdowns, to seven interceptions, a sixty
point six completion percentage rate, seven point two yards pers attempt,
eighty five point two passer rating, and then twenty six
rushes for one hundred and nineteen yards and three touchdowns
in ten games played. He was a fantasy quarterback twenty seven,
so not even a quarterback two. When active in over
half the season, Lawrence can certainly bounce back. His prior
quarterback finishes in Fantasys's entering the NFL have been quarterback
twenty three, eight, and thirteen, which supports the notion or
case that he offers mid to back end quarterback going upside.
In a best case scenario, he is not the elite
prospect from Clemson with Jacksonville not the case that has saled,
but he can still provide quarterback two, if not flirting
with quarterback one value in superflex or even one quarterback leagues.
Lawrence turns twenty six in October. He is under contract
with the Jaguars until twenty thirty one, so plenty of
job security. Head coach Doug Peterson has fired his replacement,
who by the time you're listening to this episode, we
may or may not know who that is. Should be
a clear upgrade from the vanilla and generic offense Peterson
installed year after year. Let's not forget either, that Lawrence
has arguably one of the better supporting casts on offense
in the form of Brian Thomas Junior, Evan Ingram, Christian Kirk,
travese Etn Tank, Bigsby, Parker Washington, Gabe Davis, Brenton Strange.
That's a very solid group to utilize. Lawrence for me,
is going to be a priority trade target to acquire
to rosters, a quarterback two in superflex formats as well
as a solid backup in one quarterback leagues with the
potential to reassert himself as a weekly starter. He is
a bounce back candidate, and once we know who the
coach is in Jacksonville, I feel as if his value
will increase. So the time to strike is now. It's
a short window, and based on conversations I've had with
people that have Lawrence rostered, he is open to trade.
So this is not the Lawrence who is deemed a
phenom or he's untouchable. This is a different opportunity now
for us in Dynasty. His market has fluctuated. DK metcalf
is next sixty six nine, ninety two and five touchdowns
for fifteen yards per reception across one hundred and eight
targets in twenty twenty four as the PPR wide receiver
thirty two. To state that is his appointment would be
an understatement that is nowhere near the value that most
expected out of DK. His prior wide out fantasy finishes
have been wide receiver thirty four, seven, fourteen, sixteen, and
twenty one. So outside of his rookie season, we've witnessed
now in twenty twenty four, DK's second worst performing statistical
fantasy season, metcalf has settled in as more of a
wide out two with a wide out three floor. Despite
his his obvious talent as well as big playability. His
PPR wide out seven season, which was in twenty twenty
to the tune of eighty three thirteen oh three to
ten scores, that's now the career outlier, It's not the norm.
He has hit or exceeded nine undred yards receiving in
six of six NFL seasons, three of which were one
thousand plus yards receiving over that span thirteen oh three,
ten forty eight and eleven fourteen. DK turned twenty seven
as past December. He's under contract with Seattle for twenty
twenty six, so one more year with the Seahawks unless
there's a trade, which I don't foresee coming O. C
Ryan Grubb has already been fired after his one and
done stint, which was a pass oriented offense that ultimately
failed to pan out. Seattle posted five hundred and ninety
three passing attempts and three hundred and eight three rushing
attempts and ranked eighteenth in EPA per play in twenty
twenty four. It was a failed experiment. Grub performed exceptionally
well with University of Washington. It was not transferable though
to what Seattle is known to do, and that is
ground and pound with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonney. You
would think then that less passing volume or a more
run oriented approach would hurt Metcalf, but that's how he's excelled.
With the finishes of seven, fourteen, sixteen to twenty one
over the past four seasons, DK should be viewed as
surely a fantasy starter from here on out. Alba one,
who is now wide receiver two on his own team
behind Jack and Smith, and Jigba, who fully emerged in
twenty twenty four, after his one hundred catch, eleven thirty
yard and six touchdown efforts as the PPR wide receiver
nine one hundred and thirty seven tug. If we've seen
a changing of the tie, DK is taking a back
seat to jsm's youth and versatility to be an outside
and underneath possession slot weapon. Metcalf has the big body,
the big play potentials we've seen throughout his centvel tenure. Unfortunately,
he's not an elite commodity any longer, and those who
assume he is are just believing in the sunk cust
fallacy of his name recognition. Metcalf is a solid wide
receiver two, realistic wide receiver three. Based on his role
lately with JSN, as I just alluded to, he is
a bounce back candid, though if it is only for
a new OC and the fact that Tyler Lockett may
or may not be with Seattle in twenty twenty five.
At this point in time, if you are contender or
middle ground team, it makes sense to acquire or buy
loo on DK, but if you're about to rebuild or
entering that phase, you should attempt to cash out while
he offers that name recognition in the dynasty trade market.
Next up is Chris o'lave as a bounced back candidate.
Concussions are now a serious, legitimate concern, with five documented
from his time at Ohio States to now in the
NFL with the Saints. In twenty twenty four, he had
thirty two catches for four hundred yards and a touchdown
twelve and a half yards per catch, forty four targets
in eight games played. Talent is not the issue with
olave is evidence from his NFL rookie and sophomore receiving
logs of seventy two ten forty two and four one
hundred nineteen targets rookie year and then eighty seven eleven,
twenty three and five one hundred and thirty eight targets
is a sophomore year three was deemed to be a breakout,
star studed campaign, as we now know that was not
the case because of his concussions. Alive turns twenty five
in June. Plenty of youth, plenty of longevity, assuming the
health cooperates and is under contract with New Orleans till
twenty twenty seven. We are unable to predict injuries in general,
let alone head injuries. So it's a factor, but not
the end I'll be on opposity making process. Even so,
Alave is now approaching, if not in to a territory
where another concussion brings up retirement consideration. That creates inherent
risk to invest in him or roster him despite the
talent and ability provides to us in fantasy. This is
a BILO window, and sure it does create risk because
it's not a flat out guarantee that the rest of
his career is promised because of his head injury history.
The good news is that Alive used to be priced
as a wide receiver one in dynasty. He is now
more obtainable than ever at a wide receiver two or
I've even seen a wide receiver three costs because people
don't want any parts of the concussion history. The Saints
new head coach, who replaced Dennis Allen and interim Darren Rizzy,
will be an important storyline and monitor as well for
not only a Lave's sake, but the entire Saints offense.
Kubiak showed glimpses of brilliance as OC in twenty twenty four.
The Saints started really hot out of the Gates as
one of the best EPA offenses for the first month
almost and he's even being generated some other OC buzz
elsewhere like Seattle in Cleveland. So it's no guarantee this
coaching regime retains anyone from this past season. Olave is
still worth a first in super flex or one quarterback league.
The issue is what is your risk tolerance? And you
prefer Olave over prospects in twenty twenty five, and that
is a subjective conversation that only you have the answer to.
Time for quick break. I'll be back with two more
bounce back cannids before I get to that. My calendar
is open for roster calls. One on one opportunity to
speak with me or Google Meet thirty bucks, thirty minutes,
fifty to hours, one hour. Let's talk about your team infrastructure,
the foundation to build with free agents, and the NFL
Draft coming up in one league of multiple leagues. To
schedule one hit me up on social media again, it's
Dynasty Jupot and all platform or semi an email. It's
Dynasdeupot at gmail dot com. We'll get that locked in
and scheduled asap. Those are always cool to meet you
one on one, but also you get my perspective on
your teams off hours in the year. Shoes into the offseason.
Be right back after that short break. TJ. Hockinson is
yet another bounce back candidates. He returned from his torenty
ACL from twenty twenty three and week nine to twenty
twenty four and ended up playing in ten contests with
production of forty one catches for four to fifty five yards,
no touchdowns, eleven point one yards per catch, sixty two
targets as the PPR tight end thirty four good not great.
Based on the assumption he would be a full go,
he was limited. We're all familiar, though, with what Hockinson
can contribute to an offense when at full strength from
his previous tight end fantasy finishes of thirty two, five, fifteen, two,
and four with both Detroit and Minnesota dating back to
twenty nineteen when he entered the league out of Iowa.
He turns twenty eight in July. Still plenty of youth
in the tank there, and he's under contract with the
Vikings still twenty twenty eight. The Vikings have a tough
decision and dilema on their hands to make a quarterback
with Sam Darnold entering Freegancy and Jackie McCarthy waiting in
the wings to take over if needed. For those who
are down on the value of Hockinson or forgot what
he's capable of, reflect back on his twenty twenty three
campaign with Minnesota prior to tarians ACL late in the year,
he went ninety five nine to sixty and five touchdowns,
one hundred and twenty seven targets. That's three top five
fansy finishes for him on his resume. It's clear that
makes Hockinson a discount of version of an elite tight end,
one without that top tier cost of Brock Bauers, Trey McBride,
Sam laport At, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, etc. That tier.
Surprisingly enough, Hockinson does not recorded a thousand yard receiving
campaign or greater in his six year NFL tenure. So far,
the closest he came was nine to sixty in twenty
twenty three. Tyler Warren and Colston Lovelin are going to
be the prize tight end prospects from twenty twenty five,
and I understand prioritizing youth over the soon to be
twenty at Yerarld Hockinson in that case. Otherwise, outside of
the names that I mentioned Bowers, McBride, lapoort to Kitto Andrews,
there's not many, if any, that I would roster over TJ.
He's a bounce back candidate. The Vikings will be okay
at quarterback with Donald or JJ. It was great to
see him return at all. That being TJ in twenty
twenty four, there's no way that he was fully ramped
up enough though to replicate what he did in twenty
twenty three prior to his ACL tear, and that's why
he's one of my favorite buys at this portion of
the offseason in Dynasty and a bounce back candidate for
next season. Last, but not least, is Najie Harris, and
I will admit that I am not the largest Nagi
fan around because of his inefficiency as a rusher. He
is somewhat of a plotter, used to be far more
efficient early on his career. Volume keeps him very relevant
under the microscope. However, he's been a consistent Fantasy running
back more than I expected when I'm now doing the
data mining since from the NFL in twenty twenty one,
he's had four consecutive one thousand yard Russian seasons. Did
you know that twelve hundred, ten thirty four, ten thirty five,
ten forty three. I was surprised to see he's been
that consistent. His jopper carry averagers have been three point nine,
three point eight, four point one, four point zero. We
know we're getting it's going to be sub four just
flording with four in that category. Russian touchdowns A seven,
seven eight and six one hundred and eighty receptions so
far with per year totals of seventy four forty one,
twenty nine thirty six seventy four is the outlier, of course,
and then PPR RB finishes of RB three, fourteen, twenty three,
and twenty so RB three was the rookie year where
he got all the volume in the world. Since then,
a settled is more of an RB two with those fourteen,
twenty three and twenty overall finishes. In twenty twenty four
NAJ he went two sixty three ten forty three and
six touchdowns four yards per clip, thirty six catches for
two eighty three no touchdowns with forty eight targets. He
turns twenty seven in March and why I am most
excited about Nause a free agent in twenty twenty five.
I think he's one of the better best kept secrets
among running backs in Dynasty, and I'm trying to acquire
every single share of Nage as I can, because there
is a mental fatigue with Naji in Dynasty. It's been
downhill sledding since that RB three finish as a rookie,
so he's not what we had hoped he would have
been out of Alabama. Still, there is a home and
a role for him in the NFL as a volume
driven asset. Eventually when the wheels come off. Of course,
if he just maintains that thirty or so reception pace,
can he clips two fifty or so rushes per year.
Whether to the Steelers or another NFL franchise, Harris can
still be reliable and impactful RB two in fantasy football.
I am willing to invest in him as he approaches
the age of twenty seven on his next contract, which
could probably be his last relevant one for the purposes
of Dynasty, in hopes that he recaptures some of that
exciting form we saw earlier on his career. He has
not been bad since that rookie season. It's just been
a bit pedestrian, consistent week over week, sometimes not the
highest ceiling, but at season's end, gets a job done.
That's why now he's a bounce back candidate for me
that will do it, but he'll enjoy my twenty twenty
if I bounce back candidate episode. As a quick recap, they
were Trevor Lawrence, DK Metcalf, Chris Olave, TJ. Hogginson, and
Naji Harris. Thank you all for listening. If you found
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DIN as you're checking out. Hope you all have the
great rest of the week. See you