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Speaker 1: Welcome to another episode of the Chicks on the Right podcast,

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where we have our friend and sponsored the show, Zach

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Abraham Cio Bulwart Capital Management, with us to talk about

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stuff that's going on in the economic world. And we're

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just you know, we're just a couple of days out

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from the big inauguration. I wanted to get your take.

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First of all. I know this isn't like economic financial related,

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but I am scared to death for his safety. Like,

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do you worry about Trump's safety doing the big pomp

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and circumstance stuff with inauguration.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean it sounds kind of crazy to say this,

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but I think you sort of have to be right.

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Speaker 1: Like I want to burgle wrap him and hide him away.

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Speaker 2: Well yeah, I mean, especially considering the fact that you know,

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we just saw the guy get shot. Yeah, I will

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say this, and I really hope they I really hope

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that they look into it. But you know, from my

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I don't have any family members that were secret service

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members or anything like that. But as a guy that's

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grown up around firearms and military family and all that

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kind of stuff, that first they I don't I don't

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think that this. So I don't think that the Secret

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Service is at an empty and so I think with

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the increased eyes on it, I would suspect he's probably

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going to be safer at the inauguration than he's been

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at any point over the course of the election. But

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I mean, you know, you live in one of these

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times where I just I think that you're probably pretty

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foolish to to say that, you know, anything can't happen.

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And the other thing that's concerning is, you know, you

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have a lot of people in this country and kind

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of unlike any other time, right, I was really bummed

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out four years ago when Biden got elected. I didn't

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want him to get killed, right, Right. You got a

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lot of people in this country that would like to

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see Trump dead, right, So yeah, it's it's it's freaky

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to me. I Like I said, I my assumption is

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he's going to be okay because I think the Service

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Secret Service is really good at what they do when

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they're actually doing what they do, which look, I would

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love to see a big, a big expose into that, right,

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what happened with the Secret Service in that? Yeah, I

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mean the fact that you leave a platform like that

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one hundred and forty yards from the podium and nobody's on.

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I mean, it just it defies it really does. It

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defies all logic. You know, talking to some of these guys,

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one of the first things they do is they stand

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at the podium wherever the speaker is going to be,

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and they start identifying places within a six hundred yard radius,

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you know, and and you know, they either put people

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on those spots or they have people overviewing those spots,

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which very very simple. So yeah, I don't think you

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can I know, you can say no to anything.

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Speaker 1: I know, I know it. Well, he's he's going to

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be very assuming all goes well, and of course we

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obviously hope that they do. He's going to be very

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very busy because he's listed. I don't even know how

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many things are his day one priority. There's going to

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be a lot of stuff that has to that relates

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to taxes, and that relates to getting prices down for

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American people. Obviously those are huge priorities. And there's been

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a lot of talk about him bringing back excuse me, tariffs.

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What is your take on the tariffs? Do you think

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that these are going to make a comeback? Do you

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think that there's going to be certain industries that are

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impacted more than others. How do you think regular Joe

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Schmo's in America are going to be impacted by his

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tariff plans?

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Speaker 2: You know, this is one of those really interesting conversations

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that we've been talking about literally since the first time

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Trump passed tariffs. And I don't know if I've ever

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heard a conversation that has as much nonsense and like

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handwringing around it and a total just a decision by

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so many people to completely ignore contexts, completely ignore what

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has taking place. So so the first time he was

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president and he was talking about imposing tariffs on China,

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I was all for it. People like you're going to

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crash the economy. And I just sat there and I went, WHOA, hold,

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hold on saying it? Hold on? Say it? So right?

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So China has been suppressing its own cost of labor

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and for a long time was suppressed, suppressing the valuation

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of its currency, and it is tariffing our goods right,

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answering tariffs with like tariffs. It that's that's balance trade, right.

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So it just cracks me up that everybody's like hand

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ringing it's Trump gonna pass And I'm like, what China

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already did, right, you know, what are we talking about here?

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And I was like sitting there, going, look, I don't

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think that it's going to have anywhere near the economic

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negative economic impact that people are saying, because what that

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will inevitably do is force labor back here. Will that

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make prices slightly higher? Yeah, but it'll be offset with

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people having different jobs wages being slightly higher, which will

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be somewhat of a juice to inflation. But then they're

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also talking about cutting tax rates. They're also talking about

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and I think this is going to be the bigger

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deal is cutting a lot of regulations. And the reason

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I say that is if we look at what's going

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on right now in Argentina, it's really giving us a

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path forward. Meaning I was totally in favor of what

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Malay is doing in Argentina. I don't think he had

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any other choice. Having said that, I honestly thought and

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we thought that they would experience significantly more economic pain

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than they have already. Now, when you cut government spending

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by that much, it doesn't feel good right for anybody.

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But the question was will the benefits out weigh the costs?

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At this point, Much to my surprise, it definitely looks

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like that's occurring in Argentina, and I think that that

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sort of gives you will it work exactly the same

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way in the US, No, but I think it gives

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you a way forward where I think one of the

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best ways to offset the inflation that will come from

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some of these things is the regulatory cut. So I

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think inflation is going to be stubborn for a lot

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longer than people want it to be. But I think

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the way that they're addressing it is the only way

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that really makes sense. And if they follow through with that,

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I think that they probably able to keep inflation under wraps.

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Like I said, I mean, Argentina has proven that it's possible,

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and you know, because it's not everybody's just oh, the

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tariffs make things go up and press. Well, yeah, but

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they also make you doing business here in the United

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States cheaper too, So there's offsets. And we've talked about

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this before, right, Like it's this period of time we

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live in where everybody wants to analyze like one part

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of a problem. They're like oh, and you're like, okay, well,

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what's the other part, right, what's the off set? Right?

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That's the cost or that's the benefit. Now, what is

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the other corresponding cost or benefit to the to the

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to the issue hand. So, but now I don't think

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that they're going to be big problems, and I think

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it's yeah, I think it's a needed step to get

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us back to the place where we've got a manufacturing

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base here in the United States.

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Speaker 1: What do you think is going to happen to interest

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rates this year?

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Speaker 2: So that's a really So that's the thing that we're

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watching right now. And if anybody wants to understand why

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the market's currently down to two and a half percent

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on the year, hasn't didn't finish very strong, hasn't started

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very strong. That's one hundred percent interest rates. You've got

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the thirty year US Treasury right now pressing five percent.

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You've got the ten year US Treasury back up to

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four point six. What we were concerned about when the

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Fed started cutting rates was we our personal belief was

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that they didn't have anywhere near the economic data that

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would justify cutting rates as much as they have. Okay,

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well that was our idea going into these first. Now, selfishly,

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do I want lower well yes, we all want lower rates, right,

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but the question is is what right what are the

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what are the impacts, what are the you know, what

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are the implications long term? And so going into these

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rate cuts, we were just looking around at the economy

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and saying, Okay, the FED thinks they need to cut rates.

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We see zero evidence in that, right.

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Speaker 1: I think, wasn't it just sort of pressure from just

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the culture saying enough is enough already, I mean, we

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can't take this anymore. And so there was Yeah, I

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felt like that was the reason for the cuts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I deductive reasoning takes you there, because

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none of the other things that they I mean, they

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didn't hit their target rate and inflation, employment was still

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historically low and started it still is, none of those things.

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You're still at record margins in the market, play in

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the stock market. You may think that these rates are

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going to lead to problems, but to say that you

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needed to cut at that point, there was just no

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evidence of it. And what we were saying at the

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time that our biggest concern was is they're going to

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cut too early and then have to reverse course. Right.

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The reason that's a concern is because that will give

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new life to inflation. It will push the inflation battle

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out further and longer, it will probably make it more pernicious,

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which means though probably in that event, they probably have

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to the raise rates even higher than they did previously,

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which would mean they probably would need to do more

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bank bailouts, which means they probably need to do more

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you know, bailouts of all other things, because the higher

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rates go, the more value in bonds drops, right, which

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upsets me.

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Speaker 1: But Trump is Trump is already complaining about how high

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interest rates still are, so there's going to be continued

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pressure to get them down. So yeah, like, realistically, what

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do you think what's going to happen?

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Speaker 2: They're stuck it between a rock and heart place right now.

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There really isn't much they can do on the interest

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straight front because and now you see you know, new

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sanctions going against Russia today, and oil is responding very bullishly.

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Oil's back up pushing eighty bucks again. So you get

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an upsurge in oil in that gas here, and it's

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going to undo any progress they've made in inflation over

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the last twelve months, and it's going to do it

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really quick. And so I like Trump has got less

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control over rates than he would like. I actually think

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that's a good thing. I don't think presidents should be

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able to make monetary policy other because if they did,

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every monetary policy decision would be a political decision, right, right, right,

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But the rate side of it's going to be sticky.

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I don't really think that they have a lot of

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good choices. I think that they started cutting too early.

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I think that they should have let rates. I think

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they should have let the economy cool more and then

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responded to economic weakness with cutting as opposed to what

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they've done. And the other thing I think the FED

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has done is they have not taken market psychology into

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focus nearly enough. Meaning you're at the end or well

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what should be. But you've got the longest bull market

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US history, and it's the biggest. You're seeing valuations we've

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never seen before. You're seeing you know, literally fake created

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currencies thrown out their cryptocurrencies with thirty billion dollar valuations.

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You're seeing all this crazy stuff. And what I'm saying

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is this is not an environment where people are going

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to take subtle clues, right, This is not an environment

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where people are going to quit taking crazy risks. Because

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the FED raises seventy five basis points right, and in

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my opinion, the modern FED has forgotten about this is

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that there is a psychology to the economy, There is

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a human behavioral aspect to the economy, and to get

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things to settle down, you need to introduce the fear

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of loss, right. And what the FED has done is

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even when they get hard, everybody knows the minute something breaks,

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they're going to go against everything they've said. It's like

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the parent, right, It's like counting to three, but you

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never actually get to three, you know, so, and it

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just it's that way. And I think that they've got

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a market and I don't think I know that, but

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you go, You've got a marketplace that believes the FED

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is going to come to the rescue no matter what.

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And I think that that has really muted the impact

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of their interest rates. So in a lot of ways,

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I think the FED is actually bargained against themselves well.

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Speaker 1: And this is one reason that we're constantly telling our

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audience to prepare themselves for whatever eventuality there is. And

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one of the best ways they can do that is,

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even if they already work with a financial planner, at

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least try to maybe get a second opinion. And of

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course we always recommend you for that. So how can

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people talk to you about where they're because they, as

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you always say, they only get one retirement, So how

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can they talk to you about where they are, how

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they're currently invested, and maybe learn about possible things that

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they could do differently.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and boy, there's so many. It's that's one

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of the exciting things. Scary time in the world. But

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a lot of overvalued garbage, but there's so much great

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stuff that's been left for debt, that's paying massive dividends

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and anyway, that's way to get a hold of us.

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I get excited. That's where you get a hold of

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us is Know your Risk Radio dot com, Bullworkapitalmanagement dot com.

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We do a daily show called the Daily Dots. You

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can get that through Know your Risk Radio or Bulwork

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Capital Management, pretty Google, Know your Risk Radio, Bullwork Capital Management.

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We're not hard to find.

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Speaker 1: Perfect. Thank you so much, Zach, appreciate it until next time.

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Speaker 2: Reservices offered through Trek Financial loc and SEC Registered Investment Advisor.

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The opinions expressed in this programer for general informational purposes

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only and are not intended to provide specific advice or

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recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. Any

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references to performance of security so it thought to be

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materially accurate and actual performance may different. Investments involved risk

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and are not guaranteed.

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Speaker 1: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

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Speaker 2: Trek twenty fourth through zero