Speaker 1: What is up, fellow sekos. I am Dana Valley coming
at you with as always my certified dance fabulous co host,
mister Grant Hughes. It is time now that every team
is played more than ten twelve games in the NBA
season for a good old mega round of NBA fact
or fiction. But before we get to that, mister Hughes,
how the heck are you?
Speaker 2: I'm doing well and that's a fact. So check one
of those off lifts I call bullshit doing terrible, Dan,
I gotta talk about my feelings. How are you doing?
Speaker 1: I am fantastic. I'm a little tired, but no one
cares about that I have. There's been some I guess
NBA media members who have been on the East Coast
recently and I have been talking about like how hard
it is to cover. They don't know how people do it,
And I was like, yeah, you're damn fucking right, Like
it's about the time that we East Coasters received some
acknowledgement for really making this work. You're welcome, Grant.
Speaker 2: That the listeners probably couldn't audibly hear me rolling my eyes,
but no, we did. West Coasters. We've got it so
much better. Just time wise, it's like our late games
are done at ten o'clock a lot of it.
Speaker 1: I won't say the earlier ones though. That's why I
would probably prefer Mountain time because then it's okay. The
first game starts at five rather than four is pushing it,
especially if you have a real job, Like four is
kind of pushing it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true, but like, but then you're done nothing.
Here's here's the hack. Here's the best thing when a team,
when a game you really want to watch is that
early game and you start you, you know, at the
four o'clock for for for me, and you don't have
to start it until say seven or whatever, because you
know you're on League Pass and you can just and
then you just breeze through that thing. If you're you
could skip free throws and bang out a game in
like fifty two minutes like easy, or even less if
you if you're real handy with the skip button.
Speaker 1: If this is what you do for a living, like you,
the West Coast is definitely where it's like, it's.
Speaker 2: Way more efficient.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I wanted to adjust ask you about or
it's not even ask you because we both know how
we approach this these are not statements that we would
necessarily leave because we will call some of them fiction.
So it's not we came into this and it's as
an example, I really think that the Dallas Maverick should
trade Luka Doncic. That's not one of them, but factor
fiction if we propose that it's something we've either seen
or a sentiment that's been flown around with. These are
teams that were that people are generally concerned about. So
that's how we frame this. Would that be an accurate
way to put it? Grant that we're not.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's somewhere between like a like a people are
saying like prompt and also like a this at least
war I mean, pull the veil all the way back.
These are all just ways to like, let's let's have
a discussion about a topic that, like Brooks like we
should have a discussion about because it's not going to
be None of these should be easily dismissed or accepted
out of hand. I don't think that's that's kind of
the zone we're going for.
Speaker 1: Challenge accepted. I feel like I might we might have
had one in there where people like what they is
this on here?
Speaker 2: I was just thinking of something that I proposed on Like,
that's like a twenty five second conversation.
Speaker 1: It's also if you want to really super peak behind
the curtain, it's a way to cast a wide net
without us having to. I enjoy those episodes, and I
hope people enjoy them too, but without us regurgitating the
every NBA team's something like every NBA team's fifth best player.
Let's do that podcast? Do you guys want to hear
that one ranking every NBA team's fifth best player.
Speaker 2: Ranked.
Speaker 1: We begin with a little Tyler Hero and Norman Powell.
Grant you have no idea of the order because I
did not give you an input before I made the
screen assets. What the hell do we call the pictures?
Whatever the VID? So you're not going to know you
know what's coming right now. If you don't know what's
coming next, that's very exciting, even though you know about
all the topics we're going to discuss. So maybe it's
less exciting NBA factor fiction. At least one of Tyler's
Hero and Norman Powell is going to make a twenty
twenty five All Star team. Mister Hughes, I.
Speaker 2: Mean, can we just talk about there we're having a
shooting guard renaissance because both of these guys I think
of as like pure twos, which feels like a dying
breed of NBA player or it did over the last time.
Speaker 1: Bring it back to right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Hey, Bradley Beal having a great seat, and Two's
are back, baby the twenty twenty four to twenty five
the season of the two. Okay, this is on its face,
this is kind of wild. Neither's been an All Star
before normOn Palell has been a career six man hero.
I think we you know, if you'd pulled people at
random points over the last three four years, you probably
would have said hero is also kind of a six
man type, just because of the heavy offensive skewing game
of his. Both these and this is just these guys
are both if they make All Star teams. If one
of them does, it'll be because of the offense. They're
both averaged just under twenty four game. Both of them
are making damn near half their threes. I think Pal's
actually like in the forty nine percent and and Heroes
way down there at like forty seven something. So the
balls going in we've talked about. I think we have
talked about the total shift and Hero shot diet just
there out.
Speaker 1: He's taken outside the paint all year.
Speaker 2: He just doesn't shoot him. Yeah, it doesn't shoot him.
Speaker 1: So he went from like they were over a quarter
of his shot diet and now they're like four percent.
Speaker 2: Right, And I mean like that's one of those things
where when when you're we'll get to actually assessing this
at some point. Just changing the shot diets one of
those ways where you know, if you go into if
it's preseason and you're like, what's this guy need to
do to improve, and it'll be like, oh, tighten up
his handle or like become a better three point shooter.
Hero's proving I mean, the ball's going in a ton,
but it's like, just don't shoot low expected value shots,
and even if you're less efficient on the high expected
value ones, you're gonna it like it's gonna come out
in your favor. So yeah, like he they both have
been just phenomenal scorers. Powell especially has just like just
walking into threes now, just off the dribble threes. He's
always been like a dangerous driver. So the question then is,
I don't know if you want to split it by
conference or it's like who's more likely just based on
the numbers. Now, they're both in the top I think
fifteen in scoring super efficient.
Speaker 1: I'll give you one. Yeah, if you look at so
they're both averaging about twenty five points a game. Twenty
four point nine is what they're both at. So if
you look at what their true shooting percentages have been,
what they're both north of sixty five right now. So
here's every player in the NBA averaging as many points
as Tyler Hero and Norman Powell on as good or
better true shooting. So we have Tyler Hero, Norman Powell.
We've established this, Karl Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, Kyrie Irving,
Kevin Durant, and Anthony Davis. I will take you one
step further because I think this is going to answer
what your question is too. The players who are then
also doing this sufficiency and averaging five assists per game,
Tyler Hero and NIKOLEA Jokic. That's it.
Speaker 2: That's all.
Speaker 1: This.
Speaker 2: I think I'm leaning fact it's super early. They're not
going to keep making in the high forties from deep
just because nobody does unless you're Grayson Allen last year.
I don't know who i'd pick as more likely. Are
you with me that it's a fact because we're saying
or not both one of these two guys is going
to be an All Star.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to go the West is just gonna
be so difficult because I know Luca's kind of off
to a slow whatever start, but just.
Speaker 2: He's gonna make it.
Speaker 1: No one's I'm saying, you have your Steph in there.
I guess will John Moran not really be al? Kyrie
Irving was having a good year now he's he's injured.
The Mass is dealt with some weird injuries to all year.
So it's maybe Norman Powell's chance of making it is
higher than I'm as signing. So I'm gonna go fact here.
But it does feel like just by virtue of Tyler
hero being in the East, that he has the better
chance of making it overall, I.
Speaker 2: Think I would agree. I guess maybe just like a
sub question that's got nothing to do with factor fiction,
like which of these two guys do you think we'll
finish the season with numbers closest to where they are now?
Like wh Who's Like? I guess maybe this is like
which one is a little bit more or less of
a mirage than the other.
Speaker 1: I probably would go with Norman Powell because his role
is higher volume and he's taken some different shots. But like,
this is someone who's always just been an incredibly efficient
score for the moment was part where you and he
like taking the right shots, and so Tyler Hero, it's look,
one of the things he's done a better job of
doing too, is it's not even just where you're shooting from,
it's how you're shooting them. He is really I think
he's still taking more pull up jumpers as a part
of a shot died overall, but like the gap between
those in the catch and shoots has shrunk substantially, and
he is taking like more of his threes I think
are catch and shoot threes than they are pull up
threes at this point. He's always been relative league average,
a really good three pull up three point shooter. So
part of that is does he revert at all, especially
if the heat wind up dealing with a Jimmy Butler
or maybe a bam at of bioapsence down the line
and they maybe need him to do a little bit
more on the ball. So it's weird that I think
Tyler heroes of right now might have a better chance
of making an All Star team, but Norm Powell feels
more real, if that makes any sense.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was kind of thinking about it because in
the context of Most Improved, because a lot of people
are not a lot of people I've seen the case
made that Powell is like the type of him provement
that should get that kind of get that get consideration
for that award. And I was going back and forth
with being like, well, he's just playing like eight more
minutes per game than last year. You know, it's all
of his rate stats are way up. But it's like,
how different is Norman Powell? Really? I mean, I think
the size of his role is different that that, Like,
that's it's not just more minutes. It's like he's way
more important to his team's offense than he's ever been,
and so that means more attention. And with coupled with
like some of the gains and you know, off the
dribble shooting and all this other stuff. He's He's a
really interesting Most Improved case. It would be wild for
a guy that finished top five and six Man of
the Year the last two years, he's gonna get no
votes for that because he's just gonna start all year
to then go win Most Improved like that that doesn't
happen all that often. So I think I like Powell's
like sustainability a little more than heroes. But I think
there's a good chance both these guys finished the year,
you know, around sixty percent true shooting and averaging over
twenty which is like, that's an eleite offensive player that
you know, this sixty five percent on twenty five points.
That like that's where Kevin Durant lives and basically nobody else.
But they could both be you know, just give him
a flat a grade as offensive players would I would
believe that's sustainable for both.
Speaker 1: So if you if both of them hold, though, do
you think Tyler Hero has the better case to win
Most Improved Player? Because watching the two, I feel more
of a material change in the way that Tyler Hero
is playing. But like there's something to be said about Okay,
Norm Poalace's role is bigger, but more of his shots
are self created than basically ever I think, and he's
maintained this efficiency so and like you know, he's changed
out like a lot of his three point attempts like Okay,
you've shifted from some of the corner and like now
you're taking more above the break ones. That would be
an interesting discussion that I don't know whether I'm prepared
to have at the moment.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I'm not sure I am either. I would
just look at if you're most improved is so like
who who knows what most improved criteria really is? I
think if you're looking at the two of them together,
you're noticing Heroes averaged over two twenty a game the
last three years prior to this year, and has shot
it like very very well generally speaking from threes, Like
the thirty seven point eight percent is his lowest three
point hit rate of the last three seasons prior to
this year. So I could see the argument being like,
he's just you know, he's gotten a little better. It's
not the same thing as Powell, you know, jumping from
the bench to the starting lineup and taking on this
bigger role and being super efficient.
Speaker 1: If very quickly. If the voting needed to be done today,
are both of them all stars?
Speaker 2: If it's today, then yeah, because just partly because you
have so many guys that are hurt that you would
normally consider.
Speaker 1: I wonder how many people are going to be prepared
to have this discussion, not only with the straight face,
but like, no, this is like legitimately we need to
consider this. It's like you don't just we're not like
making him up. Would we just spent ten minutes on
whether or Norman Powell is gonna be an All Star?
I think that means it's time to move on, Grant,
this is yours, even though you don't know it's coming.
Speaker 2: All right, So we we got Jared McCain, the guy
we just talked about at the exact right time last
time we recorded or Steph Castle will win, will win
Rookie of the Year? Factor fiction?
Speaker 1: I mean, who who would you pick to win Rookie
of the Year right now based on what we've seen.
Speaker 2: If it's just the numbers, I think probably it is McCain.
And then you got to think about two Memphis guys
in Edie and Jalen Wells. Already, I mean, Edie was
a pretty popular pick. Our guy, Read Shepherd not a factor. Unfortunately.
Speaker 1: I said he was gonna run away with it, Grant,
even though I was warned many times he wasn't gonna play.
Speaker 2: You warned me when I said Shepherd was gonna be
so he'll be undeniable. Like you're like, oh, there's a
lot of guys on the rockets that need to put
shut up. Dan, He's super good, he's gonna play now.
You're right, Uh, I mean it's McCain now, isn't it?
Like if you if you're picking today, it's him. The
question is just like, are we gonna see Reesa che Sar,
Probably not Shepherd, you know, whoever else you want to list,
because we are like a dozen games into the year.
So so that's that's that. That makes it a little
tough for me. But I don't have any doubt that
if it's today, it's just I think it's just McCain.
Speaker 1: I think you're probably right. I included Steph Castle though,
because I've been very impressed by the defense and I
think he's shown some playmaking flashes. I have very little
confidence in the shooting coming around. And so if your
Rookie of the Year case is kind of built on
your playing, you're defending your ass off, and like the
passing is progressing, he probably needs to make more strides
as a score to be thrown in this. But I
actually think I included him, So I don't think people
are talking because there's a chance that he's just been
a top five rookie. So I mean the Jaalen Wells
of it all, Zachary rech Cha's been gonna have Keyshawn George. Actually,
not enough people are maybe talking about Steph Castle's defense.
Speaker 2: I think that's fair. This is an unfair question because
it's been difficult from the moment he was a prospect.
But like, do you have any better sense of like
a good comp for Castle or like what kind of
player this guy is gonna be, because coming in, you
know it's I'll never get it out of my head.
Somebody said, like he's kind of an Igodala type, and
I haven't seen that, but that's like, well, if that's
a cat in it for me, it's like, please give
me all the Iguadala types. Is he a point guard?
The shooting makes it hard to use him for a
major on ball roll because they'll just get ignorbs ditover
off ball, but the defense is real. I just I'm
still struggling to decide like what I think he is
other than just like a guy that guards his ass
off and plays hard and if he learns to shoot,
then we're talking.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's like he's had games, but I don't
know how much this matters. We've had games where we've
seen him take I think he took I want to say,
he takes seven against the Jazz the other day and
he made three of them, So like you have, like
he's getting them up. There's value in that. And he's
at over three on the season and under twenty five
minutes per game, so I think there's value in taking it.
But to be below seventy percent from the foul line.
I look at him, I don't know if he's what
do you think about like pre injury Sean Livingston?
Speaker 2: Is that true?
Speaker 1: Or would it he post injury Sean Livingston has been
like who's the better athlete? You would have to go
with if it's if it's pre injury Sean Livingston, then
maybe it's post injury Sean Livingston's the better.
Speaker 2: Comp Maybe maybe I'd love to see if.
Speaker 1: Former Warriors we can compare them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, is he really kind of more of a Macaw
or Jacob Evans? That's interesting on McCain so a lot
of so just see I was I can't we have
to talk about the numbers the last three games as
we're recording this, twenty seven points, twenty three points, thirty
four points and ten assists that most recent game against Cleveland.
So like we're not messing around a lot of this
is he's got opportunity. He's played over thirty minutes per
game in his last four. He got to start finally
against the Cavs, and that they lost. But you know,
that's just what happens when you don't play any of
your guys because they're all hurt or load managed. Maybe
the question is, is McCain, assuming, assuming the Sixers are
ever healthy, is his role gonna stay big enough?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 2: And I think he's played well enough so far to
suggest that, like you probably just need to play him
over your Eric Gordon's or whoever. That that's because because
that's how he loses this, because he's been the best
rookie or among the best rookies statistically so far, big role,
getting lots of shots up, inefficient, showing more on ball
stuff than maybe it was expected he'd have. Can he
continue to play enough if and when the Sixers have
bodies out there? I'm inclined to say like, I just
don't think you diminish this guy's role anymore than you
have to. He's shown enough so far that like, why
wouldn't you want this guy on the floor, right?
Speaker 1: And I think also what helps his case is I
maybe they're gonna run into the existential dilemma of do
we think we can play him in Tyre's MAXI together?
And then I guess you would just go with embiid
George and I'd assume cayleb Martin or is there someone
else you've traded for at that point? But like when
you look at I think what helps him is look
at kind of the way some of the other guards
have played so far. Okay, Kyle Lowry is shooting thirty
eight percent or whatever from three, but he has not
necessarily looked great. Eric Gordon has certainly not looked to
rate Reggie Jack and isn't part of the regular rotation.
So the fact that I guess the other guards haven't
played well enough to usurp him if he were just
looking at the secondary rotation, maybe that bo as well
for him. I think a lot of it might come
down to it. I think he's put up more of
a fight on defense than I was expecting, which is
why so the comp I gave for him, by the way,
was it's like hit Desmond Maine and Tante Givincenzo merged
into one player, is what It kind of feels like.
Speaker 2: That's that's like this. You get the size right because
McCain just he's one of those in betweens like, oh man,
that's good size if he were a pure point guard.
But as a as a wing player, it's I don't know,
And that's kind of where Devincenzo lives. Although Devincenzo is
a sneaky six five, I think he just doesn't play.
Doesn't seem like that. Yes, we haven't weighed in. Is
factor fiction? One of these two guys is gonna win
Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say fact. As a way of Jim McCain's
been great, but also just kind of acknowledging my concerns
with Steph Cassel. I guess making an packed right out
of the gate may have been overblown. Again, I don't
know what to make of the shooting. It's cool when
he has a two for five night, or like I
said to whatever was three or seven against the Jazz
and there's also just his finishing has been pretty good.
I thought as a rookie, there's like when you say,
like Wemby like him kind of screening for Wemby and
then rolling and like he's able to fit. Like that's
just like super fun to watch. So I'm gonna say
fact just because I want to speak it into existence
that I think Steph Castle is having Even if I
think you look at the Efficien scene, there will be
a lot of people are like, no, no, no, But I
think he's having, at least, by the eye tests a
better season than people are talking about.
Speaker 2: Just to be just to be contrarion, I'll go fiction
because that way I just get the field.
Speaker 1: Who's the pick? Then we need to hear it right.
Speaker 2: Now, Resache. I believe in the shot and he's gonna
get opportunity. I don't know, Like if we come back
to this in like I don't know, three more weeks
and McCain is still just playing thirty plus minutes a
nine and scoring like this, then I might have to
change my tune.
Speaker 1: Well, I might also ask who else on the sixers
are still injured?
Speaker 2: If that's that's true, everybody next up?
Speaker 1: Grant the NBA MVP race is already over because oh
g Anobi is one. No, because Nikoliokic has won it.
This is this man is unbelievable. This is he has
won three MVPs. And you get to a point and
I think we've reached it with Giannis where Okay on
certain nights, like when he drops fifty against the Pistons, it's, oh,
he can still surprise you. But you look at it
and you say, like you're numb to a lot of
what happens. And then yet with Nikola Jokic, there's just
like you can't get numb to him because he's doing
something every night that is so utterly ridiculous. And I
put this on Blue Sky the other day. Is has
anyone ever in the same season won the scoring title,
the rebounding title, in the assist title. I'm asking for
nikol Jokic. This dude leads the league in rebounds and
assists and he's like third or fourth in scoring. And
even as some of the Nuggets his kids have upticked,
the Nuggets are still just more dependent on him than ever.
He's logged thirty nine minutes or more five times this year.
Grant too many of those games he had last year,
all of last year seven. This dude is an iron man.
This is someone who's had deep playoff runs. They won
the title not last year, but the year before. He
was carrying a team when Jamal Murray and Michael Porter
Junior were missing time. Now he just carries the team
even when Jamal Murray's available, apparently, and you're just looking
at what he's doing. He's hitting his threes at an
astronomical clip. His two point percentage is dipped. Hey, but
guess what grant that still means he's shooting north of
fifty five percent on them. I just I look at him,
and we can use we love the net rating swings,
it doesn't. You could filter it by playing time. I
don't care context. Nicola Yokis just leads it. The Nuggets
are about thirty points per one hundred percent is worse
when he's off the court. There is belief that we've
reached the point of voter fatigue with NIKOLEA. Jokic, And
if you feel that way after watching the first part
of the season, I really hope you do not have
a vote, because there is no one else that you
could make it. If the Bucks were good I think
Giannis on an individual level, probably comes closest to having
a case. I think you could throw Shay in there.
Kevin Durant I thought had a very strong case before
he was gonna miss some time with a cash straight.
I'm sure maybe he'll creep back in there. But like,
this is fucking wild. This is someone who is the
Nuggets are not. I don't feel the record and all,
I don't want to say it, feel worse about the
Nuggets than ever. I will say they feel less convincing
than they did a couple seasons ago. Maybe that's my
bias against young players. Yes, I know, Christian Brown might
get most Improved Player votes, YadA ya, YadA, fun, fun, fun,
But he is literally the one man difference separating a
championship contender from probably one of the worst teams of
all time. And I don't think there's another player in
the league that you can even come close to saying
that about right now.
Speaker 2: I would I mean, I would go I would flip
it the other way and say, like make the argument
against him right, like, what what possible case could you
make against Jokic today? Right now? And we're projecting forward
several months just being the best player in the league
and therefore deserving of MVP. Like you can pick knits
with every other candidate. I mean, Anthony Davis is a
name we do that that I you know, we both
have talked about early in the season as a candidate
great like atom can't find anybody that has. And these
are the these are the two prongs of the MVP case,
like how much do you We're trying to figure out
what valuable means? How how much do you mean to
your team? Nobody means more than Yokic. And then if
it's just show me the box score, nobody's better than Jokic.
So just like you can knock, oh, Luca's not making shots,
the defense is still iffy. Whatever I guess you'd say, oh,
Jokic's defense is still you know, break even at best
or whatever might either stage better than that.
Speaker 1: I would, honestly, I would go as far as asay,
I think it's been substantially better than that.
Speaker 2: No, I'm playing devil's advocate, like I'm trying to imagine
the arguments that you would make against him being the MVP.
I think the thing that we just aren't, the vote
of fatigue thing is real it sucks. I think in
hindsight it might feel like a mistake that he didn't
win it two years ago and that we're not talking
about a potential five straight MVPs for him, that he's
the MVP if he stays healthy. And that's the other thing,
like we're less concerned about him getting hurt than knocking
on everything right now than literally any other candidate. So
it's just like, I don't know what the odds are,
but I it's like a Jokich or the field at
this point, and I was like, I just took the
field in the Rookie of the Year thing. I just
think I would pick Yokic. I just don't see anybody
else that has anything close to the same chance as him.
Speaker 1: So I guess with you, And I don't mean to
declare it already over when the Nuggets are whatever ten
games ended season, but for someone to catch him, what
needs to happen, And don't let's not throw injuries out there?
Is it? Like, so the Nuggets are fourth in the
West right now as we record this, if they drop
off of that, but it's not necessarily hit like the
numbers are still incredit Does he have the ability to
win it if they're like sixth or seventh in in
the West, if they again, if they fall that for which,
by the way, this is part of his MVP case
right now they haven't all right, almost entirely because of.
Speaker 2: That is that is how he could lose it, And
it would be bullshit because there's no argument that if
the Nuggets are underwhelming, oh they are a five hundred
team the rest of the way or whatever, and they
don't finish like they're they're seventh in the West, eighth
in the West, which is below it's like the Westbrook line,
Like you know, what, were the thunder sixth the year
he won the MVP, Like that's kind of our that
that seemed like, oh my god, but the numbers seemed
undeniable at the time. I still don't think he was
the MVP that year. That's another conversation, Like you won't
be able to make the case that the Nuggets struggling
has anything to do with Jokic. What you'll be able
to say is like they would have won twenty games
this year without him, you know, like that they won
forty one is incredible, Like that he got them twenty
plus win So yeah, I think that'd be the case
you'd make is if the Nuggets aren't good enough as
a team. We all care about team performance and determining
value of an individual player, but there's not gonna be
a connecting art line between the Nuggets underperforming as a
team and Jokic, Like it'll be the opposite. It'll be like,
it's incredible they were this good and he's the only
reason why.
Speaker 1: I as someone who was skeptical over the Nuggets this year,
I just can't and even never skeptical about Nikola Jokic,
but wondering what their ceiling could be even with Pete
Nikolea Jokic, and it's their ceiling might just be winning
a title. He's gonna be this good, yeah, And I mean,
like I know they still had their issues. They're gonna
need more from a healthy Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Junior.
He's come around, Like you're gonna need him to be
more consistent on the defensive end. Aaron Gordon needs to
get out. But even the anecdotal stuff is being set
up for him to win the award because it's like,
just throw the numbers out of the equation. Now, Aaron
Goran is miss time Jamal Murray is banged up and
is not He's continued to be uneven. And yes, okay,
some of the kids, especially Christian Brown, are playing extremely well,
and like you've gotten some really good traction out of
Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson's even shooting thirty nine percent
of his hitting thirty nine percent of threes. Excuse me,
but you look at it and you say, oh, so
the Nuggets are relying on three Christian Brown is probably
more of like someone who is a known quantity, but
you're relying on a lot of people, including Westbrook and
even some Hunter Tyson. And by the way, oh, your
backup center rotation is still dog shit because for some
reason we gave Darios Sorr it's the mini mL E,
since apparently we just give that out like cantonies that
we can train a bunch of picks to wash it
off later picks that they currently do not have. I
digress on that though, but it's all setting up to
where these are. I just rattled off a bunch of
reasons without going some on why things could have just
gone so wrong for the Nuggets, and there would have
just been built in excuses and the blame would have
fallen on maybe Michael Malone, but probably Calvin Booth Moore
than anyone or the ownership whatever, And it's just like, no,
you're winning in spite of this. Jokic is dominating and
you have a better record than teams that a lot
of people thought were just like Minnesota Dallas, they're struggling
out of the gate. And again the Nuggets haven't been perfect,
but they've won games. And Joki is just like the
fact that he is mate might average over thirty points
per game or is in because the players averaging more
than him right now are Giannis Anthony Davis on the
Melo ball and that's it. And it's just we don't
think of we know Jokic can score. He's one of
the most by the way, over the past half decade
if you view it in some I'm not sure there's
been a player who's just more clutch, Like when you
look at actual crunch time numbers and him, we.
Speaker 2: Have those clutch points this year. He's number one in
clutch points this year. So like, if you're talking about
like who impacts winning, that was a lot of the
Roughs case years ago, is like look at his clutch,
like he won them five or six games down, you know, down.
Speaker 1: The stretch, like and Goody and Denver. Do you remember
that shot that was like they've I wasn't the framing
the night the MVP race was.
Speaker 2: Over right, I think last thing, it's just Jokic and
this isn't. I don't know if this is like a
conventional way to make the MVP case, but it appeals
to me, like he just sets your team's floor so
much higher than everybody else does, right because like it
doesn't to a greater extent than any other player. It
doesn't matter who his teammates are. If he's playing, you
just have a chance to win because he can just
completely control the game in ways that no one else can.
And like you obviously look at the floor the Bucks
have Giannis, this is a low floor right now. As
good as he's been, he just doesn't make everybody else
the best version of themselves like Jokic does. He's not this,
he's not the world's like comfiest safety blanket like Jokic is.
It's just you. You can't be bad if he's out there,
and that's not true of anybody else.
Speaker 1: It's and it feels such like a blasphemous thing to
say in the vacuum, but I'm going here for a
thirteen second. The MVP race to me is just is
over and you're gonna have to I need you to
outline the case. Oh, I would say, I don't ascribe
to this case, but if you are someone who has
just always gone with the best player on the best team,
that is the only thing that can undermine Jokic's case
at this point, because again I don't agree with it,
but if that's just how you view MVP, okay, fine,
well then it's gonna go to Shay at that point,
or it's gonna go to dot Darius.
Speaker 2: I'd congrats Darius Garland MVP. If you're a best player player.
Speaker 1: That would be an interesting discussion to have, though if
there was just like, well, actually, we might be having
it soon. So I'm gonna go fact here. You're going
fact as well?
Speaker 2: Yeah, got to.
Speaker 1: What are we up to? Grant? Oh?
Speaker 2: Flick of this? Darius Garland, Dan is the Cavs MVP,
just Calves MVP non league wide. Uh, I'm gonna make
an all NBA team factor fiction.
Speaker 1: I don't want to go fact again, but I have
to go fact here, he has been bawling and he's
not gonna have the same scoring numbers as Donovan Mitchell,
but he is very much driving the offense. And we
did a deeper dive on Darius Garlands. We don't have
to go too much into it, but he's shooting over
sixty percent on drives. His passing out of them is better,
his finishing is better. He looks not only do the
craftier on the ball, he looks a lot faster on
the ball, so he's getting around guys and that sets
up not only his finishing, but it helps set up
the playmaking that he's doing. The shooting on the ball,
off the ball, off the charts. That in turn opens
things up for both Donovan Mitchell, for Evan Mobley, for
the Cabs to get away with how they sometimes space
out Jared Allen and or Evan Mobley depending on what
the set's going to look like. This is, you know,
the spicier thing might be, is there a debate to
where you say, well, who's been the Cavs and the
most valuable player this year? And we don't want to
create strife from within because the Calves are just rolling.
But to me, he's been their MVP, and I don't
want to say it's not close, and I really do.
We talked about Evan Mobley's growth again, go back and
check that episode we did like four minutes on the
Calves or whatever it ended up being. But like the
mobiley stuff, a lot of it's been opened up because
of what you could do with Darius Garland away from
the ball, and I just to the extent to which
before I throw to you that Darius Garland feels like
he's driving what the Calves do on offense despite Donovan Mitchell,
I think being better at let's call it reading the
room on a functional basis, knowing what they need from
him on a given night, or like how much does
he need to dominate the offense on this possession that possession?
And then Evan Mobley just really as a driver, as
playing more physically as someone like doing the face up stuff.
All great, and you could make a case that Evan
Mobley and nor Donovan Mitchell are all NBA candidates as well,
But I look at Darius Garland as just the one
who's driving more value for Cleveland right now.
Speaker 2: Anybody, Yes, Yeah, I think there is a legitimate debate
to be had just because Mobley and Mitchell have both
been so good, and then you can't you can't talk
about the Cavs success without going like Carosel Vert is
playing about as well he's ever played. TI Jerome is
definitely playing.
Speaker 1: Apparently the most efficient picking roll ball hand.
Speaker 2: Learned basketball and is like a good defensively somehow now
like is getting steals that just contributing on both ends.
Also incredible health up and down the Cavs like top
what eight guys?
Speaker 1: No, No, Max Drews hasn't played well.
Speaker 2: I didn't even think about Max's. We're talking about the
guys you know. Mitchell, Nobile, Garland, Allen have all played
every game so far. Same with the Korro, same with Niang,
same with Jerome, sam Merril's played twelve, Wade and Laverta
played eleven, Like yeah, and then like yeah, where does Streuce? Sorry,
Max Streuce, I don't know what we do with you now?
I feel okay saying it's fact that Garland has been
the Cavs MVP and that he's gonna make an All
NBA team. I think it's for me. It's more just
like and we can move on from the Factor fiction portion,
Like isn't it great though that we can like wash
off the like, Oh my god, what the hell happened
to Darius Garland? Remember when he was an All Star
and he was our one of our like big up
and coming picks and he just broke his jaw lost weight?
A great article in the Athletic. Forgive me, I can't
remember who. I've just read it, who wrote it. I'm
talking about how Garland is way stronger this year and
he's like getting through screens and he's making a defensive
impact and yeah, like he's actually up to his normal
weight and and maybe god, like you try living through
a straw for for like several weeks and see how
it affects your game. I know I always mentioned this,
but like I don't feel like that gets brought up
enough when people are talking about the bad year that
he had.
Speaker 1: It's like the bad year that still included like twenty
points per game on three or whatever.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's always kind of been one of my one
of my guys. I like him a lot. You know,
he has his limitations or not this year, but has
had them. I'm just happy that we're seeing like, oh yeah, no,
Darius Garland is someone that's gonna contend for All Star
Games all the time and is now like for sure
in the All NBA conversation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was an easy fact that we ever gonna
get some fictions going on here. I think it's the
real Maybe this is one grant the goal than State
Warriors are a real title contender without needing to make
a trade. So as currently constructed with their eighty seven
man rotation.
Speaker 2: Eighty six now the anthony brained mcl So it's a
weird recipe because, as we've lamented since I don't know
to the last couple of years, they don't have it's
Steph Curry. And then who's there's not a star. There's
no other star on the team unless you're gonna just
look at Draymond Green's impact and reputation and whatever, like
Andrew Wiggins is in that guy. Jonathan Kamingez certainly hasn't
been that guy. And then it's just a bunch of
role players that play hard and defend and shoot a
lot of threes like Steph plus defense and threes is
a pretty good recipe for being a very good team.
The contention thing, like a real contention thing. You just
don't you get the feeling that they're gonna be now
they've beaten both Boston and OKASE, but don't you get
the feeling that they're just gonna be overmatched talent wise
against the best teams in a playoff setting. And this
and the depth obviously, people have been saying all year,
the depth is not something that you can rely on
in a playoff scenario. I just I think you can
be really good this way, and they have been, and
I think they'll continue to be.
Speaker 1: But I don't know.
Speaker 2: Maybe it's an old school way to think, but I
just I feel like they need more top end talent
that they can't really get right now because that guy's
not available for the right price to really feel like
an OKAC Boston level contender.
Speaker 1: I think I would agree with you, but the fact
I remember saying coming into this season that they were
more than one trade away from being a title contender,
and now it feels like they are just one trade away.
And it's not to me. It's not even about the
regular season. This might they could wind up being like
one of the three or five best regular season teams,
But you mentioned it. When you get to the playoffs
and you need someone. We saw it when they had
Kevin Durant was like, have that extra guy just to
break down the set defenses to beat if they're going
up against more athletic teams where you need to beat
some switching, Uh, which I mean they be Boston, so
maybe it doesn't matter. But like in a play like
when someone when when a team like Boston has seven
games to plan around what you're doing, or even a
team like Oka, see that's where I think you need.
I frame it as they need a second scoring option,
but like a second primary scoring option. However, and this
is we're gonna throw it to you. I can't tell you.
Names have been thrown out there and depending on how
much they cost, I could talk myself into them, but like,
what is the type? Don't I don't even need If
you want to throw out a name, that's fine as
to use it as the comp Like, what is the
the player that they need to enter serious title contention?
What do they do? What is the general idea the
general function of this player?
Speaker 2: So the cop out answer is, uh, the guy the
type is the player Jonathan Kuminga thinks he is, which
is just like the big combo forward slash wing score
that's hyper athletic, can't be guarded with one player can
get down off you know, I like he's been, he's been,
he's been fine off the bench. I think the warts
are still there, the athletics, all the plus and minuses
are all just kind of where they've been with him.
But that that type, it's like, oh, I don't know,
Kawhi like that that kind of or a decent version
of Kauwhi. I don't think it's a And you could
look at all the names we've tried out forever of
just like who's available, Jimmy Butler, Zach Lavine, Brandon Ingram.
I think all those guys potentially help. I don't know
that that is like the type I would pick. So
it's just the big combo forward wing like maybe or
even to keep with the theme, like the type of
player Andrew Wiggins was supposed to be when he was
drafted like that, that type of thing. You could also
get a lot of mileage out of a like a
a quality athletic, legitimately center sized center that can be
your role man that can just dominate the offensive boards,
block shots like that kind of thing. Every big. The
Warriors play is undersized so and or does not stretch.
So it's that that would go a long way, But
we're also kind of maybe at the point where it
will I'll throw it back to you. Is it possible
that they don't need this? This like who Kaminga was
supposed to be level star and that if you made
like a something beyond a marginal improvements as a big
guy or as like a good self sufficient scorer like
that might be enough to make the Boston OKC whoever
else fight like a little more fair in a seven
game setting.
Speaker 1: So I guess it would depend on the route that
you go, and I would view it through them two
different lenses, and now I'm gonna throw it back to you.
The first one would be, could you just get another
big because it's all right. You have TJD. You have Draymond,
you have Cavan Lolon, he's been playing really well this year.
You have the ability to downsize. We've seen good moments
from Kyle Anderson. But it you go out and get
it doesn't even need to be I want to say
properly sized, but someone who is bigger than any of
the centers they have now, who want top out of
six seven. It's like, hey, well, how tall a.
Speaker 2: Is tj I think is listed at six ' nine. TJD.
I think might be listed at six nine or six ten.
But he doesn't easy, So go out and get.
Speaker 1: Another so TJD. And come on, TJD looks like a center,
I feel like, but go out and get someone who
looks more like a center. You just said, so I
would tell you if, let's say, if you guarantee is
going to be healthy the rest of the year, you
can get it. It seems like he would fit the
like the motif of this team that sends that no
one's really playing a ton of minutes and this guy can't.
But if you could get Robert Williams of the third
I'm not talking about giving up a first round pick
for him, but if you just added him to this team
without having to give up any of the core parts,
do you think that's enough to Okay, now we have
like our big to go with Draymond, and then when
we want to mix and match or do other things,
do you think that then now you're really leaning into
all right, like it's it's defense and we just have
enough dynamism upfront around staff that this is gonna work.
Speaker 2: He's like right on the cutoff line. I think if
you're talking about a healthier over William the third that
looks like Boston RW three and that kind of thing,
that that's a that gives them a like fly around,
you know, come from nowhere, block shots, dimension, like stash
him on the corner guy like the Celtics did. Like
you could get some real like dynamic contributions that you know,
the Warriors current guys don't really provide. Is that enough?
I don't know, it's close that that's an interesting and
interesting name or interesting player type. I do think just
to sort of pivot a little bit, like you do
have to assume that Buddy Heel is not going to
make forty six percent on crazy volume from three going forward,
like you know, Draymond Green may not continue to make
forty six percent on like more volume than he's had
in several years like that. So that's all to say.
I think, as we're looking for help, it feels like
it needs to come on offense. That's the thing I'm
most confident of I do. I think the defense is
just going to be this way all year. I just
you know, it's hard to sustain the intensity with which
they play, but because they just keep shuttling, you know,
high energy guys in and out of the lineup that
are fresh, like you kind of can't imagine them being
this disruptive, infrenetic over eighty two games. So that's just
to say the offense is just where we're we need
to be focused. I think. So maybe that cuts against
Robert Williams, the third underrated passer when he's been healthy,
but like you know what I mean, I think as
I'm talking in circles, it does feel like you just
got to get another guy or two that are gonna
be able to score in ways that are outside of
this read and react, constant motion, chuck up threes and
playoff Steph kind of offensive system.
Speaker 1: And I agree with you, and so I'll break that
into two parts. And so the Draymond without Steph minutes,
those have actually been really good offensively, but the offense
sucks without Steph overall, which I think proves two of
the points is Okay, it needs to come on offense.
And yes, this is the thing they need to worry
about when you get to the playoffs, that we don't
just get the because I think, and I'll start with
the bigger names, and so Jimmy Butler and brand Ingram
are the two that are mentioned the most. I think
both of those guys are imperfect fits. But like if
you're the Warriors, because this invariably gets it and we've
already seen it. Someone got on our Wizard's video clip
that we did at Deep Dive into the Wizards go
check that out, was annoyed because they claimed the Warrior
wouldn't give up two first round picks for brandon Ingram
and Andrew Wiggins in a trade I proposed. I did
not propose that trade because it only had one first
round pick. But if you're gonna even take a flyer
on someone like that, you are invariably gonna have to
give up. I would say Andrew Wiggins because of just
the salary he makes. And if you're gonna get a Butler,
certainly a butler who's making like fifty million bucks, but
even a brandon Ingram or even a player who's making
you can step out of your way there. If the
player's twenty five million, okay, sure, but like a Zach
Levine would be another name you're gonna have to give up.
Andrew Wiggins, and I already kind of seen like some
of the push back from Warriors like why would we
give up Andrew Wiggins for this player? And it's you
were the same fan base that just wanted them gone
last year. Number one and number two is if you
want to get someone or something, you have to give
up stuff like it's and I think that's the dilemma
they're gonna run into. And so I have I have
one other name that I think is off the beaten
path for the most part, because I think that's how
good this Warrior's team is. But when you're looking at
the Brandon Ingram and Jimmy Butler of it all, is
there like one, do you like either of their fits
or can you see either of those working out? And
then two, if you had to max out, even don't
don't worry about the package actually working Like what is
sort of the max offer for each and we can
take it one by one. So with Brandon Ingram, if
it's Andrew Wiggins salary, so you're you're talking about that's
when you get into the DNF Meltain or the GP
two of it all. If it's Andrew Wiggins salary and
a first round pick. Is that a movie you're considering
or are you that or not saying that this would
be I don't mean to say that, like, oh, it's
if you wouldn't do this, it's out of control. But
are you that worried about either Ingram's fit and or
next payday that even like a baseline like that is
too rich?
Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, it's I don't know, Maybe this is
on that feels like the risk reward trade off is
still like it's not a no brainer that you do that,
And I think maybe that'll surprise people because Ingram is
just a better offensive player than Wiggins. He does do
the types of things I'm saying they need someone to
do like him and Butler. Both Ingram and Butler both
are like there's where you go for like a tough
two when you got nothing else going on offense. They
both get you know, Butler has been, into my eyes,
like quite diminished this year and that's his age thirty
five season that's gonna happen. But I still would trust
him to go get a tough two when the offense
is broken down. Ditto for Ingram. Both of them come
with contract issues, right because Butler is gonna I not
a given because you can get fifty plus million by
picking up his player option. But Ingram is gonna get
or expect that two hundred million dollar deal, And like
then the question is would you rather give up what
you're talking about? A first in Wiggins who By the way,
those same fans that want him gone last year two
years ago were like, this guy's the greatest thing ever
because you to help us win, So.
Speaker 1: Grow guilty of it. I just find it one. If
you're going to criticize the trade, at least get it right.
That's a fact.
Speaker 2: What was I saying? Would you rather give up that stuff? No,
you're probably on the hook for two hundred million for
brandon Ingram or like maybe give kaminga twenty five twenty
eight a year going forward. I don't know, that's like
not out of the question. I don't know if that
trade off quite makes sense.
Speaker 1: Butler's more complicated, So I think you can make the
case that if he opts out, maybe he's kind of
making the same, like he'll make less annually. I would
assume where it might it's probably like what Ingram, maybe
they're in the forty million dollar range. Yeah, who would
you feel more comfortable paying for the next two years.
Speaker 2: For two years, man, I wish Butler had played a
little better this year. I mean Ingram's we know what
Ingram's gonna do. Ingram's like at the point in his
career where like he's the and added some three point volume,
so maybe like there's even more upside.
Speaker 1: Not not so much efficiency on that through no right,
but he's getting them up.
Speaker 2: I don't know. Two years is like but Butler, you
want age thirty six and thirty seven out of Butler,
who hasn't stayed healthy through any of his thirties. I
guess it's I would default to Ingram just because I
don't think Butler's gonna return value in terms of like volume.
Speaker 1: I would too, because even if you told me to vacuum, okay,
give up Kaminga in a first round, I'd probably give
up in a vacuum more for Jimmy Butler. But when
you look up how much more it needs to be
where Okay, the baseline of KAMINGA and a first maybe
a swap. I'm not as high on COMINGA as you are,
but like that's a deal that's.
Speaker 2: Been a real roller coaster dan for me. I don't
know where I'm at right now.
Speaker 1: That's a deal I would do in a vacuum. But
Butler makes so much that you get into Okay, well
Wiggins needs to go out, and then it's well, you're
gonna have to give up two of GP two d
Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson when the trade restrictions on
the other two guys lift. So I would default to
Ingram too, But but I'm saying I don't know that
they need to go to star route. If Zach Lavine
made not that he's not a star, but if he
made less, I would be begging the shit out of
that drum because I think they need kind of that
similar archetype of player. Where can you generate your own
looks sometimes? Yes? Can you be a second Gary. I
won't call it table setter because you're not necessarily that's
not someone's gonna pass guys open. But can you make
passes off the live dribble? Yes? Can you then just
play off the ball and play really well off the ball?
Speaker 2: Yes?
Speaker 1: There is someone I believe checks all three of those boxes.
Grant that makes about half of what Jimmy Butler makes.
Not a name I've seen mentioned and if it has,
I apologized I having consumed that content, then can you
guess who he is?
Speaker 2: I have no idea. I'm intrigued. This guy's clearly underpaid.
If he's making half of that, he.
Speaker 1: Is Jalen Bruns. No, he is Anthony Simon's feels like
if you don't want to go to the star route,
if you don't want to give up a boatload to
where it's, Yeah, they're gonna have to give up something.
It's probably a first round pick. And I don't know
why the Blazers want Kaminga. Am I at the point,
would you train Cominga for Anthony Simons?
Speaker 2: Oh? God, this You're hurt in my brain. If I'm
the Warriors, what I trade Comminga for Anthony Simons?
Speaker 1: I'm assuming probably not, because Kamena fills the I think
he's like a peer four, which is why he's apply
wide to value, because I'm not a big fan of
the one position guy, except for shooting guards. Apparently that
they're coming back. But I if you're the Warriors, though,
the theory of this would be it's gonna cost you picks.
Maybe it cost you Moses Moody too, who's playing well
this year in a bigger part of the rotation. But
this rotation is I can't name a player. I can
name Lindy Waters as part of this Traine people are
gonna be mad. It's like there's just everyone in Golden
State basically plays. So if it's just all right, we're
gonna have to give up the equivalent of two first
round picks, and one of them is gonna be this
year's first round pick and the other one could either
be a player. Like whether it's not gonna be Pods,
I don't think it's gonna be Kminga. But if you
can get Anthony Simons are like, I think that makes
a big enough difference. And you can even step l
out of your way to Anthony Simons, where if you
really wanted to, you could build a package that doesn't
have Andrew Wiggins in it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you could do it with the Loonies and GP
two's and what you know, he could cobble stuff together.
Speaker 1: But man, I'm Blazer's fans will make it. Why would
we want GP two back?
Speaker 2: And it's just keep pinging ping ponging GP two back
and forth. That's just for fun. Yeah, I don't know
if we've gotten any closer to it. Well, we need
to rain this in. Andrey Simons is a fascinating name.
I'm gonna need to like sleep on that one because
all I'm thinking about is, like, is he capable of playing?
You know, even Buddy Heeld has like been running his
ass off defensively and like trying hard and stuff. I
don't know if Simons is that.
Speaker 1: I mean, no, no, no, no, He's not get into.
Speaker 2: The system and be like you never would have said
Buddy Heeld was going to play like this, So like,
I don't know, maybe it's just that there's some magic
juju the warriors are sprinkling on everyone, so they try
hard on defense.
Speaker 1: But I guess so then to wrap up this portion
of it would be so we're in agreement that they
do need an offensive infusion, But if you are going
to go the non star route, would you prefer them
to set their sites even lower where it's okay, Anthony
Sigmon's makes sense. We think the defensive infrastructure to'll hold
up around him, but he's still in that twenty five
million dollar range, right, And it's like we need someone
who's even cheaper than that. If we're going to go
to the non star route.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's kind of right in the weird middle zone.
I would Yeah, I think you probably go cheaper and
like go back to the Robert Williams type, like you're
maybe not going to address the wing thing. But the
more we talk about it, the more it does. Just
if you're gonna do this, it needs to be a
swing big enough to say like, okay, now, now we
cannot say Steph doesn't have a premium second scoring option
next to him.
Speaker 1: That's what gets so difficult, though, because if you're not available, I.
Speaker 2: Don't think the perfect guy's not available. So I think
my ultimate takeaway or ultimate response is like, yes, this
is a this is fiction. They're not a real title
contender without a trade. But the guy that they should,
that they could trade for to turn their contention into
a fact, is it available right now?
Speaker 1: Or I don't.
Speaker 2: I don't love We've just bandied these different players back
and forth several times. I'm not in love with any
of it. So I think maybe that's just like wait,
I guess, and like, look, the longer they pile up
wins playing this style and getting like quote unquote getting
away with it, the more patients they can afford to
have because you like you.
Speaker 1: Still have at themselves optionality both patients and the level
of player or type of player they need to target.
We have another Warriors one, well Warriors related one here, Grant,
and I'm gonna steal it because it's the Warriors related
Draymond Green should be the defensive player of the your
favorite over Victor Weberyama factor fiction.
Speaker 2: Man, So I know you've got the on off stuff,
which is again I'm gonna be dismissive of it even
before you mention it. But Draymond Green is looking energized
like the game against Dallas just you know, and as
mostly stayed within the realm of like rational on court behavior.
So that's a plus if you're talking about defensive Player
of the Year favorites, you do, having said that, need
to factor in the possibility of suspension at some point,
and for him, because they keep considering past actions, like
his suspensions aren't going to be short, right, Like if
he does if he hauls off and slugs somebody or
puts someone else in a choke hold, like, it's not
gonna be five games. So he might just lose his
eligibility like out of the you know, by one dumb act.
He's been really good. He's not the rebounder or room
protector or athlete he was obviously in his prime, but okay,
that's that's to be expected. I do still think he
is the central figure of this defense, even if the
numbers are going to show it's more of a committee approach.
Having said that, Wemby like it's just the the shot
deterrent and shot you know, altered data, which I know
you have, is insane. He's leading the league in blocks
and at three point eight, and it feels like that's
just that he's not going to be below that at
any point going forward. I think we got to stick
with our priors a little bit and just maybe he's
not gonna run away with it like we thought. I
still think he just needs to be the favorite, so
I would go I would go fiction. If it's Draymond
is should be the favorite over Wemby.
Speaker 1: I am going fiction as well, but I feel uneasy
about it because the on off stuff says that Golden
State defense is substantially better when Draymond is off. Raymond
also plays in lineups where he's going to be compromised
a little bit more inherently because if Steph Curry's on
the court, for one, but like you look at the Warriors,
they're better off with Raymond Green. If like that, there
are certain things with the on off data matters, but
like if it's clearly like if it's saying that the
Warriors are better offensively without Raymond Green, start digging into
the lineups, like these secondary lineups are probably playing against
inferior secondary lineups. It's so interesting because but you look
at Wemby and so it's like, Okay, the Spurs eighty
second percent of defensive efficiency with him on the court,
and I think what's most impressive about that is I
would make the case that he has less defensive talent
around him than Draymond Green does. Where it's like if
you're getting this version of Andrew Wiggins, and what we
know about Anthony Melton was he was healthy and having
GP two and having someone like a tjd or the
way that Kevon Looney's played this year, Like that's a
real defensive supporting cast. And with the Spurs, it's Wenby
logs most of his minutes with Chris Paul and Julian
Champenny and Harrison Barnes and Jeremy Sohan beforehand and Steph
Castle before so hand for he was injured. Excuse me,
Steph Castle plays a bunch now. A lot of those
guys you look so hand can do stuff defensively. I
think Julian Champenne's had a really good year for them.
Steph Castle's very good defensively for a rookie. But he's
a rookie, and so I think that's what impresses me
the most. And then you look at just a level
of impact he's having on the other team where and
I don't think this is inferior. I would argue that
it sometimes feels like, right, I wouldn't argue. I think
it's just a fact. Draymond grew role is harder because
he's kind of responsible for doing a bunch of stuff
but then making sure everybody else is doing a bunch
of stuff and tying it all together, where Wemby is
just the one man system unto himself by virtue of
disruption and deterrence. And it's you mentioned the shot blocking
teams are shooting sixteen percentage points worse at the rim
as a team when he's just on the floor, they're
taking about four percentage points less of their shots at
the rim. When he's on the court, he's holding opponents
to under thirty five percent shooting at the rim while
contesting the second most shots at the rim per game.
That is And I think when people they look at
Draymond and he wears, I would say more hats. But
Wemby is not. This is not the Brook Lopez Defensive
Player of the Year case, which again he had a case. Wenby.
Some of these rim protection possessions they begin with him
like guarding beyond the arc, and he's just coming back
and he's he's ending shots that way. So I actually
did not pick Wemby to win defense. Play your head,
bam at bio, and that is a prediction that is
aged like milk. Draymond Green has a case. And it's
interesting we're so early in the season that things could change,
Like does something happen with the Spurs where is going
to be playing less down the stretcher. Does the defense
deteriorate around him for some reason? I think he's the
answer right now. I think these are very clearly the
top two. Maybe Evan Mobley might deserve some shine here
for what he's done with Cleveland. I struggled to come
up with other names.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Holmgren had a case before getting injured. Yeah,
we can rule him out now, but yeah, that it's
a short list.
Speaker 1: You remind us who ranks fourth in defensive Oh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in the in the the obvious king of all stats,
defensive box plus minus with no flaws with it whatsoever.
That's our guy, Jill. I'm gonna say he's our guy
because I want I was just gonna be in.
Speaker 1: The bag for him. But I think you would die
for him. I think that's.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jalen Williams. Just number four defensive box plus minus
should be noted. Four Thunder players are in the top nine,
and that indicative of why that stat might not need
to be trusted.
Speaker 1: Although the Thunders defenses are good, there's only four. I
just find it it's.
Speaker 2: Hard for me to I forget who the fourth because
Cason Wallace is one. Jada Chet, He's obviously gonna fall
out or he won't actually, because that's a rate set. Anyway,
I just want to say about Wimby before we move on.
I think, like the the rim protection numbers and just
like the conversion rates when he's designated as the defender
at the rim, and the way he suppresses attempts to
me does so Like when we are evaluating Wemby over
the last couple of years, we're always talking about like
he's gonna change things, or like we've never seen this before.
This is like, you know, we've been very positive, but
it's always like I don't really know what it means
to have a guy this big that moves this way.
And I think that's the the rim protection stuff is
really our first because that's an insane it's an absurd number,
Like it's like the league average in three point shooting,
except it's at the rim when he's around, right, Like
that's just like that's unheard of. So I think this
is the first, like really good. Now, some people might say,
actually it's him making six plus threes in three straight
games and getting fifty uh and shooting like eighteen of
twenty nine or whatever, like that's that's the sign that
he's different, or like, you know, we're gonna see things
we've never seen before. I think it's the rim protection stuff,
like we're he is just gonna impact scoring by the
opponent way.
Speaker 1: The most valuable shot in the game of basketball.
Speaker 2: In ways nobody really ever has, and and nothing to
me about it feels like phony just because you then
let's jump to the eye test. It's like, guys, just
don't challenge him, you know. The offense is completely like
just veer away. And it's not like, Okay, well he's
over here, so let's go over here. It's like, no,
he's kind of everywhere just because of the length, So
there's like no safe place to be if he's out
there and if you're trying to shoot it. I think
I just am increasingly convinced that like this is the
first pretty clear sign of we're gonna have to sort
of reevaluate what we think is possible from a defensive
impact standpoint because of him.
Speaker 1: I just I don't want to dismiss Draymond's craze things
that we have, but I will say because the defensive playmaking,
that's something. Or the numbers, the counting stats, the blocks,
the steels, like those always make people want to watch
because when people say that that, you know, the people
like man, I really enjoy watching Delnal Benton navigates screens
on defense like congratulations for letting us know that you
watch the Blazers that's why you said that, Like, fine, okay, great,
but Draymond Green and I don't. He's averaging a block
to steel per game, so he has counting stats, but
he's legitimately and I'm like, this isn't sick o stuff.
He's legitimately fun and entertaining to watch on defense despite
not being the traditional counting stats disruption guy because of
the way he either actually navigates the floor but is
also directing everything else. And I can't say enough that,
certainly in my lifetime, I've never watched a better defensive
player on a regular basis. But the fact that he's
still doing this at the age of thirty four that
shouldn't factor in. It was like Lebron should win MVP
because he's good at the age of thirty. No, no, no,
Like that's not how this works. But the fact that
he might be or is one of the three most
valuable defensive players in basketball after all these years, still
that's fucking crazy.
Speaker 2: Well, and it's a testament to I mean, if you're
going to make the case for Draymond, it's rooted in that,
which is like he's very much the orchestrator, like and
he I don't know if I'm I'm biased, but he's
the best defensive player I've ever seen, and I think
I'd like to.
Speaker 1: Throw someone else into that equation. Opposing pick and roll
ball handlers are only scoring point three to one points
per possession against Moses Moody. So is he really the driving?
Speaker 2: Ford? Really the key? I think it's unfair to Wimby because,
like it's a second year and Draymond might might be
the smartest defensive player we've ever seen. And so Draymond
is able to control the defense like from a mental
standpoint and a tactical standpoint in ways like well, of
course Wimby can't do that. He's been in the league
for less than one hundred games, Like that's just not
something you can expect from him. So Themond, the Draymond
case is just like the level of control he exerts
over the game, like with his mind and with his
like experience and stuff is just on a very very
different level than Wemby, who's just all incredible physical tools
and mobility and stuff.
Speaker 1: That was these there's been some heavy ones. We need
like a nice little lighter one.
Speaker 2: Oh never mind, Well, okay, I'll read this. I can't
remember what order in the Miami Heat no longer have
a player capable of being the best player on a contender,
So we might need to define contender, like we're talking
in the same terms as the Warriors, like where you're
on the Boston OKC level, not you know, co favorite
type thing or like wouldn't be shocked if they want
a title, Like what, let's define contender before we get
factor fiction here?
Speaker 1: I would even can we frame it in another way
where it's you look at the Bucks, they're not a
championship contender, But do you think that Giannis Attenta Koopo
can still be the best player on a championship contender?
Speaker 2: Yep, I do die look at the Heat.
Speaker 1: It's kind of in the same vein. They're not a
championship contender in large part because they don't have a
player who can be the best on a championship contender.
And I don't mean to make this an indictment of anybody.
I think Bam is a fantastic basketball player, probably one
of the single most valuable defensive players in the postseason
that you could cook up in a lab. He's never
been someone who's been able to carry the offense independentive
Jimmy Butler and actually run stuff to the ghost stuff
is fun. The stuff that he is able to do
off the dribble facilitate for others is fun. It is
historically not driven a ton of efficient offenses independent of
someone who is much better than him. Now, it looks
like you already mentioned this. I think like twice throughout
this podcast, the Jimmy Butler decline feels real and like
we've seen him flip the switch this year, but it's
flipped the switch for twenty five percent of the game,
which is just not going to cut it. And so
every one, not everyone, but I still don't really know
what to make of the heat Tyler heroes having a
fantastic season and not that it doesn't matter, but I
look at it and say, hey, well, how much does
it really matter to this team if they don't have
the number one guy? I'm not even saying on a
team this is I guess what you were getting at
of how do we define contender? Like do they even
have someone who could be the best player on a
top three seed in their conference? And we're talking about
the East here?
Speaker 2: Yeah? No, So I think I think your framing is right.
This isn't really about like what does it mean to
be a contender. It's just a question ultimately of like
how good are Jimmy Butler and Bam Autobio like in
a vacuum, Like could you put them on a team
and surround them with you know, let's let's you can't.
You don't get to say, okay, well BAM's your center.
But then you also have you know, four other starters
that are like all NBA contenders but not you know
what I mean, like that that just on a regular
or above average team.
Speaker 1: And yeah, Jimmy Butler and Bam are on Boston their set.
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, if you give them, yeah, you don't even
need Tatum. If you give them Jalen Brown and Derek
White and Drew Holliday, you had a real team. I
think it's right because we're just really what we're saying
is like neither of these guys is in the conversation
as a top ten guy, like not even not even
really close right, Like and at the moment, you know,
Butler is like, Butler's not an All Star, Butler's not
a top twenty five guy. Now if he does do
the Jimmy Butler thing where he's just better in the playoffs,
then yeah, okay.
Speaker 1: Are they getting there?
Speaker 2: That's the thing, Like you can't just do that anymore
because you're what you're doing in the regular season is
so far below even the like, you know, B plus
effort level that he's put in in the past. So
I mean just the numbers Dan like sixteen a game
from Butler uh making his twos Okay, shooting fewer threes
in last year, making fifteen percent of them, doesn't like
just age thirty five seasons, so athletically, he's not able
to do all the same things he was from an
individual scoring standpoint as So this is a pretty easy fact, right,
Like they're just these guys aren't top ten, top fifteen
players at the moment. No.
Speaker 1: I think that's the Heats problem, where Okay, could they
if you're now I think of them could still be
All Stars. But the Heat to me, their problem is
and Tyler hero could they could if you.
Speaker 2: Told we just made Taylor hero an All Stars, so
they got three.
Speaker 1: So you could have three All Star caliber players, but
they still need if they wanted to contend with the Cleveland's,
the Boston, the OKCS, whatever team Jokich has around him. Uh,
the Denver Nuggets. Uh, maybe we should trade Jokic. Like,
but in all seriousness, if you even want to contend
with let's go to the second tier contenders where it's
the Nuggets the Wolves, who I still believe in. We
both believe that we're gonna get to the Wolves of Matvericks. Actually,
the Heat need a new best player and that's kind
of a harrowing place to be in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, how do they get it? You're not getting trading Butler.
Speaker 1: By the way, I don't view this as an indictment
of Bam at a Bayo because I think it's just
been pretty clear that, yeah, he could be your second
best guy. But that's not so. This isn't if people
are taking it as an insult to Bam. I think
there's they're like, if you put Bam on Boston instead
of Tatum, is he their best player? They're probably still contender?
But is he their best player or is it become
Jalen Brown at that RT? Right?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the the hierarchy changes if you do that.
Speaker 1: And I don't know how they go about. They don't
have they could trade I think up the two first
round picks this year. They have some swaps and I
guess Tyler heroes more valuable than ever, But like that
puts them in just a really rickety spot, which is
why they should probably be. This leads into the separate
discussion of I'm not a big they need to tear
it down guy, And I'm not even saying they need
to tear it down, but I don't understand the theory
of Jimmy Butler on this team anymore moving forward.
Speaker 2: Him that's one of my my pretty I've come around
pretty quickly to that. It's like, I just forget the
contract situation and worrying about losing him for nothing or
or I don't know what's worse him picking up that
fifty million dollar option or are you losing him for nothing?
That what you're talking about is really the core of it.
Like he isn't that guy anymore. It doesn't look like
maybe this changes at the moment. He certainly doesn't look
like that level of players, So then what do you
what are you doing? Because because Bam can't be that,
Like BAM's great, we love him, he can't be that.
Speaker 1: So by the way, it's like he's had some weird
like defensive performances this year feels like they're trying to
skew him more towards a traditional big. That's just not
I mean, his rim protection numbers and the stuff he
was doing and drop last year was incredible, but as
his and maybe I just haven't seen enough of the heat,
but as his baseline, Like no, like Bam out of
Bio needs to be Bam out of Bio and yeah,
great opponents are shooting in my head, I had this number.
It was actually lower and it's higher than I thought.
Seventy seven and a half percent against Bam out of
Bio at the rim.
Speaker 2: That's not his game. Like he's he's a top five
DPO y guy every year because he's one of the
best switch defenders in the league and his super he's
just never been that. It's not the last year he
was though he was better. Yeah, he's averaging more blocks
this year. That's partly because of the way they're using him.
He is closer to the basket. That's just gonna happen.
But like, that's not that's not the that's not the
Bam out of Bio. Hang your hat, like skill.
Speaker 1: Do you think that speaks to a level of distrust
and what's in front of him now in a way
where it's okay, Butler got older, we use katelen Martin
and it's you know, I think you could argue with, shit,
hey what high Smith be playing more minutes than he is?
But like, does that just speak to we don't trust
what's in front of him, so like we need Ben
out of Bayo around the basket more.
Speaker 2: I think that has to be it, because you wouldn't
look at his body of workover his career and say, like,
you know, we should mess with this, like we should
do something other than have him do what he's best at.
It's just like by yeah, it's by necessity, right, and
they're they're having him play in ways that are not
best for him because he can still do it and
it's best for the personnel around him. I think I
think that's dead on.
Speaker 1: So we're both going fact here. Yeah, I think his
next one will be a lighter one. Oh no, of
course this is yours too. My god, man, I'm reading.
It's my turn to read it. Karl Anthony Town's a
better all NBA bet than Jalen Brunson. I'm not gonna
call factor fiction I'm gonna call bullshit.
Speaker 2: I'm just trying to trigger you.
Speaker 1: Jalen Brunts has been off to a rocky start for
what how about you make the case here for are
you going factor fiction?
Speaker 2: Well, let's see, I'm gonna I'm gonna do what you
said first. I'm gonna try to make the case before
we render a ruling here. So Towns, we've we've joked
like or I have with several players here. He's making
half his three. He's like Towns actually is making half
his three. He's over fifty percent from deep now the
volume still is like I'd love to see him on
ten attempts as opposed to fifty percent on five, Like
that's I like the math a little better that way.
But he is leading the Nixon scoring despite not leading
them in shots, he's leading them in rebounds twelve point
two three assists. Has just been smoking the Vucevic's and
the brook Lopezes and the conventional centers of the world
that opponents put on him, because he just puts it
on the floor and drives like that's and you you
defend him with smalls, He's gonna score on the post.
He's a huge matchup problem. I think this is kind
of my favorite version of Towns that I've seen since,
like way back when we you know what, maybe a
second third year, when it seemed like this guy might
be a top five.
Speaker 1: Player at five sophomore on like ridiculous efficientcy oh yeah.
Speaker 2: And this was before it was like wow, before the
days were lots of guys his size shoot threes and
it seemed like such an anomaly that he could do that.
I let's see what else would I say to make
the case that's probably about it.
Speaker 1: I mean more about Jalen Brunson not continuing to get better.
And I think we've seen the offense as always though
with the Knicks, even when Jallen Brunson's at his best,
it feels like it always deteriorates later in games. But
this year it's been bad. There's still bottom. I think
they're below league averaged in fourth quarters offensively. That's with
me filtering out the Celtics game. Maybe maybe it would
help that garbage time their offensive rating and fourth quarters
like kept it in their crunch time offense. Grant bottom three.
Jalen bruns In he has struggled, but he's also hurt
them in the sense that. I don't think the Knicks
have actually made his life any easier other than giving
him more space to operate. I don't Maybe the latest
version of Karl Anthony Towns does make it easier, but
really I think Jalen Brunson has struggled. And it's the
argument for this would be he will continue to struggle
because McHale Bridges is not the player who they thought
they were acquiring. Would probably be the real way to
frame this. But I think he's gotten a little bit
better of getting off the ball slightly quicker, not over
dribbling as much, and that was uncharacteristic of him last year. Yeah,
they needed him to dribble a lot and create, but
he was operating in such tight confines you understood it.
This year, he's like kind of dribbling to nowhere more often,
where it's like he's holding the ball too long. He's
not seeing guys that he normally would, He's not spraying
out like he should be. Now again, does that is
this about the change in the roster? Does he not
trust these guys? Some of them at points, including Towns,
have been passive, like Josh Hart passed a three point
shooter at least attacks off the dribble. It feels like
og Annoby McHale Bridges not Town so much right now,
but they seem reticent to like really attack in those ways.
But I think the offense overall it's gotten better, and
I think Jalen Brunson is going to continue to get better.
And just knowing that the Knicks are only going to
go to where they want to, which is to say,
like top two or three in the East. If Jalen
Brunson is a top ten player, I have to call
fiction on this because I just don't. And also, Carl
Anthony Towns has done Jalen Brunson's newer to overall stardom,
but Carl Anthony Towns' track record speak for itself, where
yes he's a star, but he's he's a human rollercoaster,
which feels like he can still vanish on the offensive end,
and sometimes that's about teams not getting him involved enough.
Other times it's about him being too passive. And I
also think his defensive miscues are always going to stand
out more than Jalen Brunson because no one expects either
of these guys to be really good. But when you're
big man, and your primary big man is not good,
or he has a bad game, or he's even up
and down to where it gives you the glimpse of
like Towns, Well, we know what he can do, but
he's not doing it every night, on every possession. That's
gonna hurt him more then it's gonna hurt Jalen Brunson.
Speaker 2: I think this has to be fiction because I'd go
real simple. Kat cannot play better than this. That's just
full stop. He can't. It's not possible. Like I haven't
looked at I guarantee you no one has ever averaged
twenty six and twelve and made over half his threes
on five attempts. Again, like that just isn't in this record.
Speaker 1: They still had musicians that might have been his ticket
in where there's really only three center spots, but like
that would have been at this point after Yo kich.
I guess if a DeSUS center we can Sabonus has
been good, who would be who? I'm probably forgetting someone,
aren't I?
Speaker 2: Well, normally you talk about bam, It's not it's not
gonna be bamam talking about.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah so uh but yeah, fiction here, what do
we have next? This one's gonna be yours to read.
Speaker 2: Okay, Dan Ben Simmons expiring contract is playing basketball fairly
regularly these days will be traded. And that's the reason
that's an interesting factor of fiction. I if you find
it interesting is because that seems who wants that deal
and just he'll be a buyout or he'll just play
out the string.
Speaker 1: And that's what's interesting because the nets you could also
take the plant. Well, if they want to get value,
you send out because they're they're shrinking. My point is
you're shrinking their suitors even more because we don't expect
that they want good players back to where what if
we could get Zach Lavine by giving up Ben Simmons. No,
you know, they're winning too many games as it is.
It's like for what their plan is. So you're saying
that a team wants to get rid of a contract,
and so what is the contract that you know? Zeke
Nasey doesn't fit into this? Sorry little too expensive, but
Darioschars doesn't fit into this either. You could aggregate still
won't work, but like, what is the contract that is
not that it's so bad, but that is bad enough
to say, okay, we want because again, it's not for
unless the Nets are gonna zig or zag when we
expect them to zig and be like, no, we want
good players, so we'll use this expiring contract to get them.
What's the contract? You look at or contracts and say, well,
it makes sense to send Ben Benzimmons expiring contract here
just so they can get out from under that money.
Speaker 2: This is the problem we've have. We run out of
like egregiously horrible NBA contracts. I guess like because you
normally point to someone like Beal. Not that I'm saying
this is a Simmons trade candidate, but I'm just looking like,
what are the deals where everybody's like yeah, enough to.
Speaker 1: Where it's the only thing that's annoy is he has
the no trade clause right now. So yeah, I'm trying
to think of the deals.
Speaker 2: That's part like you used to be able to say
all Tobias Harris.
Speaker 1: Bocker extension too, because you know, the.
Speaker 2: Magic really do need another non shooting defense first.
Speaker 1: Oh, here's the deal, but you have to send someone
else back and he's not trade eligible yet. But like
the Bull's got to be thinking about getting off that
Pat Williams contract right now.
Speaker 2: House Oh, man, Why why are they?
Speaker 1: What do you have? What does he have in year five? Grant?
I can't remember?
Speaker 2: Uh? Is it a team option? Is no? Is it?
Speaker 1: Oh? It's a player option? Yeah, he needed a player. Yeah,
he does.
Speaker 2: Give it to him.
Speaker 1: Got it?
Speaker 2: The negotiating, you know that, it was a it was
a bidding war. You just had to beat the ten
other teams that were gonna you know that tried to
go five years straight. He's like, no, no, no, we
come on, bulls. What are you gonna give me?
Speaker 1: I think I have one? And this is just I
don't know if they would do it because you would
have to include other salary. Would you want to get
out of the final year of Marcus Smart's contract if
you could? And so like, is there another? I think
you'd probably have to increase your payroll this season though,
because he's at about twenty twenty one? What is Ben
Simmons ad? Is he at thirty six? So he's at
thirty six? So like, if it's all he's is he
at forty? Then I forget.
Speaker 2: Forty three in my head. Let me look it up.
I should have done this.
Speaker 1: He hasn't played in like consistently and so long. I
don't know what he's gonna make a dollar for dollar
and I normally know these things.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, So all right, I'm gonna get at
you vamp, so.
Speaker 1: I don't need to vamp. My actual point would be
if he's making that much money to where all right,
you want to get out of the final year that
Marcus Smart deal. But do you even if you, let's
say Lukenard as it, or do you want to get
out of the Clark and Smart deals? And it's Clark
and Smart for Ben's what is Ben Simmons making? You
found it.
Speaker 2: Forty point three?
Speaker 1: So I think you could technically do that, but you
would still have to include if your Memphis. Part of
the point would be, well, if you could do that
in a vacuum, Wait is it forty three? I'm sorry?
Speaker 2: What forty point three?
Speaker 1: Oh God? That does that framework interest you at all?
Where if it's it's Brandon Clark and Marcus Smart for Memphis,
where we just have this deal and it's gonna give
us more flexibility to pay some of these other guys
moving forward, I don't.
Speaker 2: I'm I'm getting a first If I'm I'm getting well,
if that's the other thing I like if I'm Brooklyn,
I'm doing this because i want picks, right, because I'll
I'm taking on these longer quotes tracks.
Speaker 1: Then no, this is fiction because if I'm Memphis, I'm
not giving up a first to get off just those
guys like you, I would want give me Dory and
Finney Smith instead, And then that changes the whole complexion
of the trade.
Speaker 2: That's where that's where it's hard, or if it becomes
a fiction, because if you're the Nets, you're like, what
all you want is the money you're willing to take
on bad money or I think you should be with
a pick that might turn into a high lottery pick.
And it's hard for me to imagine because we just
went through, like where are the contracts so that teams
are like, we have to get off this money and
we'll give up a pick to do it, Like I
don't know where those are.
Speaker 1: And I think a big part of that is one
a lot of these deals are shorter unless you're Patrick Williams.
And also just free agency has changed and maybe it
comes back, but like it behooves you more to have
a contract that you can send out in a trade,
because then that's something as long as it's not terrible
as a salary anchor to match money, because we very
rarely see even if you overload teams with draft equity,
we very rarely see there's no players or salary whatsoever involved.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's weird too, Like you know, this is like
a there's a certain archetype of a trade where it's
what we're talking about, where a team that signed a
regrettable long term deal that will give up draft equity
to get off of it. And like a player in
Simon's position, an expiring big salary would have been desirable
because Okay, we're gonna reset. The problem is the Nets
are kind of a reset team. And then also like
I'm trying to think what the this is where this
is bad potting, but like, what's the last time we
had a trade where it was just it was clear
that the motivation on one side was to just get
off this deal. It might be like cause we're we're all,
we're out, We're done with all the twenty sixteen contracts,
all those crazy ones with the capspike. Like I know
there have been some maybe people believe these in the
comments or let us know, Like I can't remember the
last like we just have to get off this deal move.
I guess it's deal maybe like is that the last one?
Speaker 1: Yeah? And that was even sort of like he gave
him a list of one destination, so it wasn't kind
of that they wouldn't have I don't think taken the
approach of let's just get off this deal unless he
forced them to type of situation.
Speaker 2: So they're not as common as it seems like they
used to be.
Speaker 1: Well there's one, but this might fall too far into
did they get a good player you want to get
off a contract? We were just talking about him if
he's gonna pick up that player option Ben Simmons and
like Zaier Williams for Jimmy Butler. I'm kidding. I'm talking
cheeking there for anyone who didn't catch that. But yeah,
I'm gonna call fiction here because I don't if the
Nets wanted to get like let you Zach Lavine as
an example to where okay, maybe the Bulls don't want
that contract, but the Nets are what They're not gonna
trade him for nothing at this point, I wouldn't think
and then Nets like, hey, we'll give you a first
round pick, like we'll but they're just not in a
I might call back to here, but I don't think
they're on that type of trajectory.
Speaker 2: You think he's gonna get bought out or he'll just
they'll just he'll just play the season and be a
free agent.
Speaker 1: I think he'll play the season and be a free agent. Yeah,
just because I mean, man, imagine if he got well, no,
because if he gets bought out, so a lot of
the teams he can't go to because he's making more
than the mid level. Exactly where's he where does he
end up? And how much money is he given back?
Would also be the question.
Speaker 2: Right if I'm him, I'm like, you're paying me every
penny of what of this contract? Because he can't he can't.
Speaker 1: Five percent on TUESDA this year.
Speaker 2: But they might just want to he I mean, for him,
he's been like, Okay, he's been the most efficient from
the field he's ever been seven assists, Like he still
is just like please look at the basket once in
a while, like it's just infuriating to watch him. But
but it's I don't know how he gets as many
assists as he gets. Anyway, let's move on.
Speaker 1: The Rockets will finish with a top six seed in
the Western Conference factor fiction.
Speaker 2: Well, right now they have one, and there are a
couple teams we'll talk about eventually here that you would
have pegged to be pretty comfortably above them that are not. Man,
it's right on the border as I look at it.
So let's look at who's below them right now? Is
the Rockets sit fifth? You have Minnesota and Dallas, those
are the main Like, okay, well we assume they're going
to be better. Sacramento is below, Memphis is below, the
Lakers are below. So and I don't think anyone would
say that the Rockets are likely to finish ahead of Denver, Phoenix,
Golden State. Okay, see, all of whom are ahead of them.
So we're gonna need a couple of teams. We're gonna
need two teams to jump them. I we can talk
about what's going well about the Rockets. My gut reaction
is just this is this is fiction because I think
there's too many good candidates to jump them. If and
that's that's the short answer. Now, this is a trade
candidate team that might be one of the you know,
on the short list. Well I know, but like, well, look,
I think it's a good thing. Because if if I'm Houston,
I really want Iman Thompson and Tari Easton, who we've
got featured in the graphic here conveniently to just play
with Smith, Shengoun and Uh and Jalen Green just to
kind of see what their defensive like insanity could do
in a starting group with all those other young guys.
So like you're trading Vanfleeter Dylan Brooks. I think in
that scenario total hypothetical, But like that's a good problem
if you're ready to move off of veterans because all
your young guys are ready to play together this quickly.
I I just I don't see. Just give me Minnesota
and Dallas as my fifth and six teams in the
West right now, and then Houston seven like, and then
there's some other options. So I can't quite get there,
even if I'm very much encouraged by almost everything that
Houston's done so far, I.
Speaker 1: Think it's fiction two and there and more. Actually we
have a second type of rockets one after this. I
just think of the math game here, and I don't
it's super impressed what they're doing on defense. I'm and
Thompson's a monster, Tarr Eastan's a psychopath think Alprin Shangun
has improved a lot defensively over the past couple of
seasons as well. I don't trust their offense. They're fine,
like in terms of raw efficiency relative to where their
defense is, but like your twenty ninth in effective field
goal percentage, you have like a lot of players are
missing wide open threes at this point. You're not shooting
well from three overall, and you don't I don't know
how invested they aren't improving that because I know he
shot POI to start to seem like Cam Witmore doesn't
get a lot of minutes, And then the bigger one
would be Reed Shepherd, who I was listening to someone's
complaining that he's not taking enough threes, and I guess, like,
all right, five point six per thirty six minutes isn't
a lot. But when you have this dude on the court,
like he's like, how do you want to take more
than two attempts per game? When he's like not on
the court for a consistent amount of time. So if
they're not really invested in kind of drumming up the shooting,
I do think there are things they could do organically.
Rocket stands were mad by the way I propose to
Jay Sean Tait and Jack Landale for Duncan Robinson swap.
My thought process being like, get Duncan Robinson on this team,
and then because you've punted on cap space most likely
now we just have that nineteen million dollar Duncan Robinson
salary using a trade this year and they were fuming,
and I'm just like, all right, I wanted fair enough
to read it. Someone kept tagging me in it. So
my old thing is and I don't have a problem
with them saying we're just gonna ride with these guys
will figure stuff, like they're they're at a weird point
where they're so good, but like we're in what year
two of is this year two or three? V ma
Udoka It's year two, right, So it's not like they're
super far along what I I'd like to see them do.
And maybe if we're both calling fiction here that might
this might be a way to dum up organically spacing
or no, it should stay here. I don't know why
they're playing Jabbari at center less this year in the
non Shane Goon minutes. I understand you have Adams in
Landale for something like if you view him as someone
who needs to play. But like, and I know Jabari
hasn't had the best year, but in theory, that's a
way to kind of open up the floor even more.
To way, Okay, maybe we're not gonna make a ton
of threes still, but will the floor be more open?
Defenses are gonna guard Jabari differently than they guard Steven
Adams or or Josh Landale. So I that's something that's
puzzled to me because I think that their offense has
room to be better. So it's all right, you're not
playing Jabari at the five a ton and you're not
playing Rechepher a ton at all. What are you viewing
this season as then, just like we're gonna destroy you
defensively by fire, And it's look, there's even I would argue,
look at Tarry Easton, that dude can take more threes,
Like there's room for him to take more threes in
his game. He's shooting pretty well on them this season.
I think he's like thirty eight percent or whatever. So
that's why I'm going here. I don't trust their offense,
which is a very weird thing to say about a
team that has Alpert and Jegun on it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think you mentioned Jabari Smith, like
I had him as an X factor coming into the
year because it was to me it was fairly foreseeable that,
like this team is gonna need one, You're gonna need
more than ninety nine possessions with him as center, which
is all you've had so far, just because you can
get some different looks when Shngun's off the floor space
at whatever, but two like they just aren't. You just
needed him to be the like premium spacing threat at
a big forward or center spot that he looked like
he was gonna becoming. He's making a quarter of his
threes this year's twenty five percent, so like I do think,
I mean I picked him as an X factor like
for this reason. If he shoots it really well and
just is making a big offensive impact, I wonder what
that does to our concerns about the team's offense as
a whole, because that would be such a vital dimension
that I think, frankly, like Houston, I know, I did
thought was gonna be there. I just assume the tree
jectory would continue upward with him. And it's a dozen
games into the year, so like he can have a
hot week and we're right back to like, Okay, this
guy is super imports and he's been great.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry to interrupt, Grant, but would you like to
take this next factor fiction.
Speaker 2: A Tarr Easton Dan is already more important to the
Rockets future and less likely to be traded than Jabari
Smith Junior. Man, we're catching Tari Easton at a good
time and Jabari Smith at a bad time for this conversation.
Speaker 1: Well, I think Rockets fans to I'm not to their
credit like they need credit, Like they were having this
discussion for a while. We had some of our discord
pointed out saying they thought Jabari was and I thought
that was wild, just because of what Jabari did this preseason,
what Jabari did last year, and then Tario was usually
kind of dealing with a health problem, and I was
thinking of what they need offensively, and it's just Tari,
not that he's redundant, but they just have an embarrassment
of defensive riches on this team. But man, so so.
Speaker 2: Easton, Let's let's talk through it. Ean is and and
like this was foreseeable if he was could stay healthy,
which he has for too a greater scentthan last year.
Obviously one of the most disruptive defensive players in the league,
like just period, just super high energy. I mean he
what was it against Golden State? He just won them
a third quarter, Like the Warriors almost blew a thirty
point lead and lost that game because he just kept
getting steals and layups like that's just what he can do.
I still think I still think the potential Smith has
and maybe I'm overrating it to be a really good
offensive stretch piece that I still think can develop into
someone that's going to get a lot of his own
shots and just has like this offensive ceiling. Now maybe
I'm just wrong about that, and if that's the case,
then this is probably fact. I still default to, like
the super high energy defensive I don't know, semi positionless
forward is awesome, helps every team, but like the potential
what Smith could be I think is just rarer and
maybe more valuable, like as like a top end piece.
And if Smith can't get there, and I'm just wrong
that he can get close to that, then then this
is fact. I'm not sure I'm ready to like render
judgment on.
Speaker 1: That yet, So you're saying fiction.
Speaker 2: I think it's fiction. And then and maybe I'm just wrong.
Speaker 1: We finally disagree. I think it's fact, and it's it
has less to do with how I feel about Jabari
moving forward and more. Okay, you've invested in alphahrein Shangun,
You've invested in Aman Thompson, and look, it's worked defensively
with those two. The offense does not look great when
both of those guys are on the floor. They have
their moments, but the rockets are shooting like twenty five
percent on three with those two on the court, not
making enough of them and their offense. By the way,
when you add Jabari into the fold, with those two
only one hundred and twenty possessions, but it's in the
zero fith percentile, and so you're starting to run into
a math game. Of those are three guys, all who
are extremely talented, two of whom I would say, like
can arguably hit threes. Defenses don't care. No, none of
those are guys the defense are gonna care about. And
Tari Easan might be viewed in the same vein, but
he's gonna take more threes or and like he's gonna
hit a higher percentage of them as well. And so
I think you factor that into where you've already invested
in alphn Schangun moving forward, and you have this very
specific talent type in Aman Thompson. The path to Jabari
Smith Junior being more valuable would be, well, we think
that he's our backup center, which the Rockets don't necessarily
seem like they view him as that primarily. Or two,
he's just in so much of his threes that he's
more of a valuable floor spacer than some of these
other guys. Look, they could decide that both Fred Vane
and Dylan Brooks are the ones to go, and we're
gonna pay everybody. They're not gonna actually do that though,
Like we've you and I have been doing this a
long time. That's not how this is gonna work out.
They're gonna end up choosing between guys. I think it's
been boiled down to Atari Jabari thing. Maybe it doesn't
end up hitting, maybe Jalen Green gets traded over the
offseason and the complexion of their future changes. But I
think is of right now for what they need, and
then based off what we've now seen them do, and
I would say just based off how they've used Bari.
I think it is a fact. Man, I hope I
hope New Orleans calls them too, if that's what you're going.
Speaker 2: To say, I just I can't quit Jabbari's potential. But potential,
by the way, well yeah, I mean, I guess like
to use the word I used incorrectly for another Rockets player.
I would just hope that that that Smith proves undeniable
as an offensive player at some point, and just like
if that, if that Eastan has outshot and outscored him
this year, and for damn sure has been a bigger
defensive difference maker. So like, there's no case at the
moment that Smith has been better than Eastan. I just can't.
I can't. I I the shooting is just so tantalizing,
and the offensive potential is there. I don't know, do you?
Is it your sense that Rockets fans are just lower
on on Smith's offensive upside than I continue to be.
Speaker 1: I have no comment on Rockets, got it? No? I
just think they like any fan base, you go through
the motions where the sentiment on Jabari last year felt
like it was super high and impressive.
Speaker 2: It's so fickle, you know, That's why they started this
with it's the right time to talk about this for
Easton because he's been so good.
Speaker 1: It's fickle also because though like part of why not
that this wouldn't be a decision, but would we view
it through a different lens where because this isn't happening
yet Grant and he's not like forget about whether he's
starting or not. But like the minutes per game that
Ahmed Thompson is playing, and he has started one game
this season, they're not so high like he's had a
few thirty plus performances, But you're eventually gonna want Ahmed
Thompson to just be a thirty minute per game player
and I'm assuming it every night starter at some point. Now.
Who makes more sense for this roster moving forward? I
think you could argue, well, Easan is gonna be the
cleaner offensive it right now. But also if you need
to start, if you need to continue to or start
bringing someone off the bench, like Ethan isn't someone who
technically needs to start where it's with Jabari, are you
gonna then bring him off the bench? I guess in
theory you could, but that's not something that they've explored yet.
And I'm also wondering if that contributes to this at all.
Speaker 2: It could definitely be a factor.
Speaker 1: I'm glad we disagreed finally. Our next one, which is
mine grant, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be fine.
Factor fiction.
Speaker 2: I gotta go fact. I mean, like, it's just imagine
where we are if Luca Luca had a good game
against Utah, which except for the last it's where he
forgot about John Ballins being on the basketball court and
let him dunk to win the game. Not great. He
hasn't shot at all. He hasn't shot it well all year.
There's he's got a growing issue he's fighting through like
that kind of stuff. Dallas is five and seven as
we record this. They're in the top ten on offense
and defense, and almost nothing's gone right. So like I, I,
you know, I I guess you could be concerned. You know,
Klay Thompson has kind of continued looking like a diminished
version of himself over year, but.
Speaker 1: He's been exactly I would say, like what you thought
you were going to get? Like what else were they expecting?
Speaker 2: I kind of assumed teams thought they were going to
get a better, better player than he was for Golden
State last year and he's been roughly the same or
a little bit worse. But good point.
Speaker 1: PJ.
Speaker 2: Washington hasn't played a munch. They just don't win when
he's not in the lineup. I'm just trying to like
poke holes. But ultimately, it's just you have Luca, you
have Kyrie, you have a bunch of size on the
winging forward spots. You got two bigs you can trust. Like,
what's our issue here? It's just their Their point differential
is that of a team that should have like almost
three more wins than they do, and the offense and
defense are both top Like, I can't it's way too now.
If we go another month and they're under five hundred,
we can talk, But I'm just not. I can't get there.
Speaker 1: I can't get there. I'm MAVs fans seem concerned after
the Jazz loss, and they I saw a few of
them go in on that and by the way, but
hell yeah, like that's like I want to see you
going on this team for the effort level on defense,
but look at some of the stuff that has been
beyond their control, like Luca dealing with the injury, always
bleeding apparently just like his efficiency everywhere away from the
basket is falling off a cliff that's not going to stand.
We've even seen this happen before, maybe not to this
degree where he kind of starts slow than He's just
amazing Kyrie, He's been fantastic before. He missed that Utah
Jazz game. You already mentioned it. PJ. Washington miss time,
the fact that their top ten in defense, he's missed time.
Derek Lively the second has missed time. Daniel Gafford looks
worse this year to me defensively, by the way, you
also have PJ. Washington and Naji Marshall are shooting like
zero percent on wide open threes. Basically Luca again, history
point percentage will tick up some of the things.
Speaker 2: Do you have?
Speaker 1: Can you have questions about their overall bench rotation. I
think Clay's been better for the mass and Golden State
in the sense like he's not I don't want to
use the word hijack, but like there's not an existential
crisis going on with him.
Speaker 2: That is a fair word, by the way, Like he's
not he's not like relentlessly shot hunting quite the same,
quite the same.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's it feels like it's more within the flow
of things, and yet there's going to be I think
the inherent he's older, what happens defensively, and then just
those shots he takes, like you're just gonna be subject
to more wild swings. In my book, I just you
said it what has gone right, and I would say
Kyrie and that's about it for them. The other thing
that I would, now, if you're interested in the concerns,
the two things I would point out do I think
Luca's gonna shoot better in the clutch, absolutely, but like
at some point, I know clutches it could be a
lot of randomized stuff, but one in six in crunch
time to start the season not great, Bob. And then
the actual bigger concern for me, and we've seen this
kind of reverse maybe by force over the past two games.
There's no reason that Spencer Dinwidy should be ahead of
Quentin Grimes in the rotation. I know he got to
start against Utah, I believe, but like, what is Jason
kids con plain about his bench, and like, I don't
think Quenton Grime has been terrible this year, So I
like it feels like there's some low hanging fruit for
the mask to still kind of clean up if you
were gonna isolate. Though, for me a concern and say,
like this is something we really need to worry about.
Do they have like enough like they might need another
offensive creator where it's is it Dinwitdy? Is it? Is
it going to be Jay and Hardy? Probably not Dante
Exham's injured this year, probably wouldn't have been him anyway.
And if Luca's gonna continue to be up and down
or injured, and I'm talking about that's not Clay Thompson's role.
I know some mass fans thought it might be like no,
like please stop. It's definitely not PJ. Washington's role. He's
got kind of the nifty floater sometimes. But they might
need and I guess the concern would be do they
need like a higher end like third offensive weapon than
we would have expected coming into this season. I would
call that fiction as well. But it's like when we
were thinking in terms of I'm just trying to like
think of like a cheap example, like well, Peyton Pritchard
would be good for this team, but now it's become no,
they need like an Aaron Wiggins type player, then then
we need to have a different discussion, So does everybody.
Speaker 2: Everybody needs an Aaron Wiggins would I would flag though
I don't know. I don't know what to make of this.
But Jason Kidd had some recent comments and it seemed
like they may have been in context of, like it
was difficult for Clay to make the Golden State return,
and he was just talking about, like, these our guys
are players too, there's off the court things going on,
They're mentally fatigued. It seemed to be referencing something more
than just how difficult it was for Clay to make
the return to Chase Center last week. I and like,
I just wonder what that is. I don't maybe there's
a vibe vibe issue here. Maybe there's some off court,
you know, difficulties some of these guys are going through.
It was a it was a weird allusion by him
to something I hadn't really heard about before. Maybe Dallas
fans have a better sense of what any of that is.
But like, I don't know if if you're trying to
concern troll, I guess, like maybe that's something, but this
is this is this is fact. I think they're gonna
be fine.
Speaker 1: Next one up, the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Speaker 2: Mister use Minnesota Timberwolves are also gonna be fine. Dan,
I'll call so.
Speaker 1: I don't know, if you had to pick which team
you're more concerned about, that might be interesting. I think
they're gonna be fine as well. The turnovers are definitely
an issue. They're an abomination.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: I think that it would also help if Mike Conley
was shooting better on a nightly basis. He's had a
couple better games of late. But the fact that you
have that in conjunction with okay, the spacing is already
it's not weirder, but like Andy Edwards is taking a
ton of th reason making them because he has to.
Like this is I would argue it's a evolution, but
it's also a necessary one based on the makeup of
their roster. Jade McDaniels, we know he can shoot better
from three, but he's not gonna take any more of them,
so there's been just some oddity and awkwardness on the
offensive end. Dante DiVincenzo still really hasn't gone on an
extended run. But that's why I name all those things,
the turnovers, even the transition defense. They've talked about a
lot because after they're committing a turnover, they're getting slammed
by post. That's that tends to happen, but they've been
worse than the league average in that as well. I
just think they have the personnel in house to fix
most of this. Now, if you think that Comedy has
just dropped off and this is okay, he's thirty seven
and he's getting older, and then you really just okay,
that's bad because our connective tissue on the offensive end. Yeah,
Julius Randall can do some playmaking, even Dante Devincenzo, we
know what Aunt can do. But like, no, like the
theory of having Mike Comedy is he's super important. We
know Rob Dillingham isn't ready. Maybe that would be the Okay,
it's time to be concerned. But I need to give
this team more time because even with defensive I just
I think they have the personnel to fix it. And
maybe it gets to the discussion needs to be is
it time to change up some of the lineups and
the rotations. Where does Donte Evincenzo need to get nods
over Mike Conley or even over Julius Randall at points?
But again that's still tinkering in house.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I lean that way too. I will say, like,
so they're six and six and obviously that that's just
not what the results were expected to be. I thought
it was really interesting that so John Krazinski for The
Athletic wrote the other day and this is this was
after the first loss to the Blazers, not that the
second one in a back to back set. Really was
calling out like just how the Wolves aren't playing with
the same fight and fire and like prove it mentality
that they had a year ago. And like, my intent
always goes up with stuff like that, because whenever coaches
talk about like we're not fighting hard enough, it's always
like this is bullshit, Like there's always something tactical you
should be talking about or tweaking a lineup or whatever.
Like this whole like they're not trying hard enough always
just falls so flat to me. You know. It's like
the type of thing coaches say when they're actually out
of ideas a lot of the time. Not putting that
on Krasinski, like, I think like nobody's more tapped into
like what the whole Wolves experience is. I do believe,
and I think you've seen it. There's not the same
edge to use like another kind of you know whatever,
Like what does that term even mean?
Speaker 1: But like they want it as much.
Speaker 2: Do they want That's what it is. We just don't
want it. We're not out there compete, like, okay, we're
all professionals. I do think like you you can just
flip it and say, like, we're not getting back on
live rebounds. Teams are getting too many easy transition looks
in situations where it's just like, if you're just disciplined,
get back, Like then the turnover stuff, there's all these
you know, actually more helpful areas you could point to
that they should get better at. And I do just
chalk a lot of that up to you made a
massive trade that changed the makeup of your team, like
at the eleventh hour, and we don't know where everybody
wants to be, like and the guys that you got,
like Randall falls asleep on defense or just stand still
all the time, that that's somewhat expected, but he's also
delivering a lot of what you want on on offense,
Dante e Vincenzo has not been the shots. They'll make shots,
So I understand the concern, but this is also fact
I just think like you said it right, like they're
just in house solutions to all this stuff, and and
and I don't I think it would be in some ways,
it might have been a bigger surprise if they just
hit the ground running and we're like eleven and one
or whatever because of the changes.
Speaker 1: That they make.
Speaker 2: One thing that is an issue the rim protection. Now
they're overall like rim attempt frequency and accuracy allowed or
not critical or not critically terrible. But like withnas Reed
and Julius Randall as your backup like bigs, they're just
they're allowing over sixty percent shooting by opponents at the rim,
like it's you know, even Rudy Gobert is at fifty
five percent. I think certainly Gobert's number is probably coming down.
But those two guys, that's an issue that you know,
we would love, you'd love to have more defensive integrity,
especially from a team that ran away with the lead
and defensive efficiency last year. I'm not gonna worry under
Miller time, Leonard Miller, Josh might not get him out there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not worried either. So I'm gonna call this
a fact as well. It is to see the Knicks
and them make such sizemic trays and then neither one
of them is off to You could say, yeah, I
was always gotta take time, But I would say neither
one of them are off to encouraging starts. Sure, yeah,
that's more confident in I'm more confident in the Wolves
at this point.
Speaker 2: Not really, I'm more confident in Dallas.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I meant the Knicks or the Wolves.
Speaker 2: Oh interesting, Uh, probably the Wolves actually, because because where
where do the Knicks turn? They just don't have other
guys to play like this.
Speaker 1: Just this is the team they allegedly will at some point,
but we'll have to wait. I think I would agree
with you. I'm probably more concerned about the Wolves relative
to Dallas though, but the concerned level for both again,
come talk to me in a couple of weeks. But
right now, it's just it's incredibly low for both teams.
Next up, this one's mine. Oh, the Los Angeles Clippers
are a threat in the West fact or fiction?
Speaker 2: I mean a threat. So I just want to.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they are hunting around five hundred. Their defense is
I don't know this would be the appropriate word, their
defense is hell fire, and they don't have Kawhi Leonard,
who we assume will play at some point this season.
If he does, the offense gets a lot more intriguing because, oh,
Norman Powell's now your third option instead of your second.
Things get easier on James Harden, who has not played
when you look at his efficiency up to snuff. And
so you gotta look at this seam. And we thought
they were gonna be an abomination just collected. We thought
they were going to be so bad. We said the
defense would be good. It's been great, and we just
thought they were gonna suck. They have not sucked, And
so I'm wondering here the factor fiction would be unless
you think Kawhi is not gonna play, or that he's
never really going to be available, or that they wouldn't
be willing to make a trade, Like could they just
be a playoff team like a top six team that
or party crashed the top eight to where they're one
of the better playing teams, because the offense is at
least position to get better, and when you view it
through the lens of well, they could still make a trade,
or to Kawhi Leonard might just come back, and oh,
you have one of the you know, ten to fifteen
most valuable players in basketball for however long he's available.
Speaker 2: I think because they're still like, I know, the record
is way better than we thought it would be, but
and Powell has done much more than we thought he
would And even if it's the Zubots has just been better.
I think, like their profile of man. This offense is
rough and Kawhi is hurt, and the defense is good,
like matches up closely enough to what we kind of
expected prior to the season that I'm not really ready
to adjust what I thought they would be overall, which
is to say, like, I think I'm leaning fiction just
because if the way, if the way this sustains or
gets better as Kawhi Leonard is consistently healthy, I'm not
ready to view that as like a likelihood. And I
think I think Harden, like this team turns it over
a shit ton. Harden is a back around thirty percent usage,
which he hasn't really touched since his Houston days, and
I'm just not comfortable with that. And his efficiencies is
you know, not very good, which is what we would
have expected. I think the offense is pretty flimsy, and
Leonard coming back can help that when he's in the lineup,
probably assuming he gets like ramped up and then is
able to stay out there consistently to get catch a rhythm.
I don't know how likely that is. So I think
the offense is going to just be a problem. And
then you know, we've praised Norm Powell plenty, but I
don't think he's going to continue to be this good.
So defensively I buy it. Offensively I sell it, and
I think it's just this is still close enough to
what we thought to me to where and I didn't
think the Clippers were a threat in the West, and
I'm not going to flip on that.
Speaker 1: Yet, so I'm gonna go fact in the sense of
I view them as more of a threat than the
Rockets in the like, Wow, okay, we don't think the
Rockets are going to make the move, and we've what
it wears the offense then getting better all of a sudden.
Speaker 2: Our my guy Jr. Bar Smith Junior makes more than
twenty five percent of his threes, and.
Speaker 1: Guess what, he was better last year and their offense
still wasn't that great. Yeah, So it's just like with
the Clippers, I look at it as Okay, so you're
gonna take like, look at your core lineup, Kawhi Leonard
comes back for any stretch of time, and just the
fact that that potential addition is open and we don't
think that's going to happen with the Rockets. Kawhi Lender's
gonna come back, and now you're playing him what instead
of I'm assuming Powell will still start when he comes back.
So I guess Chris Dunn or do you take out
Derek Jones that's an area or would Norm Powell come
off the bench regardless, it's just you insert Kawhi Leonard
into any of their base lineups. Holy shit, Like that
fixes the offense, Like it makes life easier on James
Harden when we get easier on Norm Powell to make
it easier even if Norm Powell is the one that's
not on the floor, because Kawhi is someone who's gonna
generate his shots in a different way and more of
his own shots than a Norm Powell might. So I'm
gonna say, do I think that they're gonna finish in
the top six? I would call that fiction. But if
you're asking me, do I think that they could be
a time like are they more likely to be a
threat in the West than Like, let's go through the
list of teams, and if we're gonna use the Rockets
the basically, I will take them over the Rockets right now.
Speaker 2: I just I can see, I can see the upside
and it's really it's just Leonard. And for that reason,
I'm out, Like I can't. I can't, like I can't
trust that Leonard is gonna come back and be impactful.
Like if it happens, I'm I'll be ecstatic, because great,
we want the best players to play and be healthy.
On a personal standpoint, like really hope that he this
is something he could get through and whatever, I just don't.
I'm gonna need to see it for a long time
or a long chunk of the season before I get
on board.
Speaker 1: What do we have next, mister Rad Hughes.
Speaker 2: Dan multiple teams will trade first round picks in twenty
twenty nine or later factor fiction, So.
Speaker 1: Let's go through the candidates really quickly. I would say
the Lakers and the Suns because those are the two
teams that are pictured here or there. The Bucks have
a twenty thirty one pick that they could trade. Who
else would be a team that you could see trade
like they have have won in the thirties. They could
trade their twenty thirty one first round pick, so they
would be they would be in there. And there are
obviously other teams that could trade it. But I'm looking
at the candidates that might be good enough to consider it.
Minnesota can't Golden State, right, they got they could trade
about like they clearly haven't punted on twenty thirty because
it's top twenty protected. But if you dangled, like, well,
we'll give you the bottom ten protected first round or
in twenty thirty. So yeah, Golden State in theory, maybe
a team that would look at that, the Clippers, that
would be like, you know, I'm closed. And by the way,
both fans were mad about this, I'm not saying that
this like if you could get the Clippers pick in
twenty thirty along with Terrence Man, you at least think
about trading Kobe White, right, Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean for the reasons we've talked about of like
it's hard they can't extend him.
Speaker 1: I think that would be My criticism of fan bases
when they look at trades is I'm not expecting. I
don't I don't want people necessari care about the finances
of it all and when the trades can be completed.
But you need to understand the value of a distant
first round pick, that that'd be my one quill. But
so what was that five or half a dozen teams?
Speaker 2: Yeah, who's most likely to who's the who's the like,
who's just like?
Speaker 1: Because we're trying multiple Honestly, I've already pensiled in that
twenty thirty one first round or to someone else. It
feels like Phoenix is gonna be the team to it.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean.
Speaker 1: They but they have the Clippers twenty eight pick. Are
they going to go any further out than that? But
they would probably be a candidate too.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I think, well, sure Darryl Moore is involved.
And then Phoenix, like every every literally everything Phoenix has
done to this point suggests the second a pick is
available to trade, they'll trade it for short term game. Yeah.
I think I go fact here, because just you really
need two for this to be a fact and you've
just listed two very likely candidates, and you could you
just need you know, Phoenix feels like such a given
and then like you just need one more.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go fiction because I really am only confident
because the Bucks are sad, and so are they really
gonna do it?
Speaker 2: They're gonna trade, They're another They're a given, I think.
Speaker 1: For what then, know, the salary matching sucks because you
could trade it attached to Chris Middleton, but what is that, like,
what is the trade there? So then are you attaching
your twenty thirty one first to Bobby Portos and then
who's a player good enough in that like twelve million
dollar range that's gonna fit it. And the fact that
they're probably thinking about life after you're honest because of
all the speculation, I feel like makes it less likely
they move it. The Lakers seem like they're trying to
rebuild for something like around Lebron, and I don't know
what they're doing, so I just don't trust them to
part with and they could trade. They have their twenty
nine and twenty thirty one pick to trade. It's like
Dave could trade two of them, so that, in theories,
should make them more likely. Don't trust or expect them
to do it. Philly is like kind of weird because
they have other assets to move, so I'd almost vote
against it. I think the Suns are the only team
and the Clippers are just are they good enough? They
already kind of came into this season where it felt
like they were gonna treat it as a figure it
out season, Like where is this headed? So why would
you give up a twenty thirty first round pick? So
I'm gonna say, I mean, maybe we should just throw
an okay see in there because they probably have a trillion.
But I'm gonna I'm gonna say fiction. I think I
think one team will do it, but they get to
two is a lot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well that's good. We have another disagreement. I'm going fact.
Speaker 1: No, man, it's just sad grant at least one playoff
team in the East will have a losing record. Fact
or fiction? Or would you like me to go through
the BPI projections on what the East playoff is gonna
look like?
Speaker 2: Well, let's let's first settle on what playoffs mean. So
we'll just say post play in well of the top
eight teams that actually compete in the playoffs were saying
one or more will have a losing record, and then
go ahead with the BPI.
Speaker 1: So I would say, based off BPI that this we
should probably add some more teams into that. Because BPI
has the ESPN NBA Basketball Power Index projections, they have
the sixth seed, which would be Knicks winning thirty nine games.
So that would mean that three teams six, seven, eight
end up being under five hundred in the East and
making the playoffs.
Speaker 2: The Knicks are not finishing under five hundred.
Speaker 1: Like, that's well, hold on, I would agree, but I'm
not going to rule it out.
Speaker 2: No, I'm not ruining a meteor is already losses.
Speaker 1: Honestly, what have you seen for them that makes you
think that?
Speaker 2: I don't know, I just like their top guys. This
is an easy fact for me. The East like because
you have the usual suspects and then you have the
Phillies and Milwaukee's that are like just you know, fighting
uphill the rest of the way.
Speaker 1: So it and what was it?
Speaker 2: You got to give the stat of the what is
it of the fifteen teams?
Speaker 1: Yes, so fifteen teams right now have a positive point
differential per one hundred possessions outside of garbage time for
cleaning the glass. I can't ask you how many them
come from the West, because you know the answer. Eleven
come from the Western Conference. That is bonkers by the way,
you know what it said. The Magic are projected per
BPI to finish third, and we don't even know if
Paula Ben Carroll's gonna come back. They've now they've fattened
up their schedule, wipe. I think they won four straight
against really shitty teams. But like what is happening? There
are injuries in Milwaukee and in Philly, But the Knicks
are worse than expected. Miami, I guess is about where
we would expect it, but they seem sadder somehow, like
their record is maybe where you expect to me. The
Bulls and Nets are winning entirely too many basketball games
at the moment.
Speaker 2: I let's lay it this way. Who in the East
are you, Like, would you bet anything on finishing with
a winning record? Definitely Boston, Definitely Cleveland, And then we're
already in the Orlando, New York, Indie, Philly, Milwaukee area.
Like I think it's two. I mean, obviously somebody else
is gonna finish with a winning record, like several somebodies,
but like other than Boston and Cleveland, we got questions
about every single other team. Maybe Orlando is the safest. Yeah,
like their best player's hurt right now with a major injury.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know what, like scrappy defense will like
get you through the right like sort of the Clippers model,
but you play in a shittier conference, it probably works
out quite well for you.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So I think the answer is even if you want
to nominate another team, the answer is three that you
could guarantee are gonna finish above five hundred.
Speaker 2: But you can't name the third team, right, Like you're
just so right?
Speaker 1: But I wouldn't ask, though, do you think? And I
if I had to guess, it'd be Philly more so
than Milwaukee. But because of how weak the East is,
we could talk about, well, some of these guys aren't
gonna play every game, how much ground are they seeing?
But the Sixers, as we record this, there are three
losses out of third place. So it's like, if you
just get your is there just a chance that because
the East is so what is the word, but because
the East is the East that they didn't like, they're
not gonna lose too much time. They're gonna run off
this stretch and then they just look dominant because the
field below them is not great.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like the BPI projection is like really
jarring to me because you do just like the wins
are there. It's not like, you know, it is an
unbalanced schedule. You're not playing, you know, equal numbers of
games against the West or whatever. So like you know,
you might have I don't know, Charlotte might go forty
two and forty or something crazy like that, or like
Atlanta or whatever. But just as it stands now, I
don't feel confident in any teams other than Boston and Cleveland,
like definitely finishing with win. This isn't easy to me.
This is one of the easiest facts that we had.
Speaker 1: We weren't aggress this was mine. We weren't or did
we collectively come up with this one. We weren't aggressive enough.
So I'm gonna change it. I'm not gonna actually change it,
but okay, this is a fact. If I say two
of the top eight teams in the East are gonna
have a below five hundred record post playing, or it
doesn't even matter because if it's post playing, like that
just means I guess if I two of the East
playoff teams we're on first round of the playoffs are
gonna have a below five hundred record factor fiction.
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna go I'm gonna stick fact.
Speaker 1: I feel good the way though they Oh god, I'm
gonna say fiction because I don't want that to happen
because then it's well, I guess it. It matters more that.
All Right, the calves in Boston exist, so you can
trust them coming out of the East and giving the
West the run over their money in the finals. But
if we only have two teams that are legitimate title
condetors in the Eastern Conference, that kind of.
Speaker 2: Sucks well, and then isn't it true? I mean you
have to think of it from the other side too,
Like if Boston and Cleveland are just are like no
notes teams in the East, what if they both win
like sixty six games, Like that's where all the wins go.
They just sop up all these extra wins and there
aren't any left, like and like right now, I mean
we should have I just thought of it, so we
didn't prep that. But like, when's the last time we
had two teams in the same conference? Is it like
the Houston Golden State year? Not even the Yeah, yeah,
the sixty plus wins teams that cannot happen often but
I mean, as we're looking at it now.
Speaker 1: My way, this is even a little bit crazier. So
when you're looking at just the point per game differential,
there are twelve teams in the West that have a
positive point differential, So just total points there, which net
rating is more accurate, like twelve and fifteen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so you've got four of fifteen in the
East's Look, the Knicks are plus three point six, not
net but just total you know, average points per game.
They're gonna be you know what the Knicks are gonna
the Knicks are.
Speaker 1: Look, the Knicks will be above five hundred. I don't
know if they're gonna be a title contender though, that'd
be a different discussion. We're gonna have to buy or
sell like title contender status. But do you anything else
on this or would you would you like to take
us out here?
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a great one to end on
because it's kind of we've let us know.
Speaker 1: In the comments. I want to know in the comments
are discord go join that links in the podcast? You
do description how many of the top eight teams, when
all is said and done, playing and everything in the
Eastern Conference will be below five hundred and we're saying.
Grant is saying, are you saying more than two? I'm
gonna use that.
Speaker 2: No, you said too, so I'm sticking with two. I
don't want to stretch it too far. BPI thinks three,
but I'm gonna stay two.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say one and BPI thinks three. What do
you think? Oh? That was fun?
Speaker 2: Thanks Dan, Thanks everybody for watching, for listening as usual, Remember,
please rate, review, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Check
us out on YouTube, which if you're watching, thank you
you're doing that already, but if you're here, please subscribe.
Speaker 1: Leave us. Oh round, we're getting down voted again, and
I will put in I don't so this is here's
a peak behind the Curta. I didn't even tell you this, Grant.
Someone wrote a review complaining we have too many ads
and the ad model changed for the system that we
used where the recommended ads went up now call bullshit
on them, saying they pop up at random times because
I time stamped the shit out of this, and so
if something happens after that, if the ads are somehow
screwing it up and bumping it, that's beyond my control.
I'm a little bit annoyed because they said in the
comment where the best podcas and the ads ruined it?
So you didn't write a review when we were the
best podcast. Something pops up when you didn't like it.
Thank you for listening. We're actually gonna put in less ads,
but that means that Grant and I I have to
manually fix that and now we're going to be taking
a pay cut. But I want the user experience. Some
people have said it to me on the side, so
I'm I do listen to the comments, but if you're
not regularly like interacting with us, look inward and say,
why do I have to give this podcast that I
think is great a one star review when I know
they put a lot of work in because I don't
like the ad model that we also know in this
day and age, they don't have direct control over it.
So that pretty annoyed me, given how invested we are
in this. But again I'm taking feedback into account. Other
people have said something it was a change that I
tried to at least space them out the best I could,
but Grant and I I didn't even tell Grant this. Grant,
you're taking a pay cut.
Speaker 2: So well, I didn't agree to that at all. Also,
by the way, most phones, I assuming you're listening to this,
have a little thirty second skip button. Just touch it.
Speaker 1: So thank you for downloating us and ruining that. So
everybody get in there up what I will say, I
do think the numbers are egregious. So I was planning
on cutting them down in the new year anyway, but
I'm gonna cut them down now. I just wanted to
talk to you about it first, but I figured why
not let the listeners foot, why not let you find
out when the listeners found out. So now they'll pop
up every They were making them like every six minutes, grant,
and I cut them down like every nine. They're gonna
go back to being every fifteen to twenty. If that's
too much for you, go away, Like I just I
don't know what to tell you.
Speaker 2: I think the takeaway here is let's get in there
and get some more up books. We gotta we gotta
offset some of this. What else join our discord then
maybe that'd be another place to comment, or we canna
have a good discussion about like who in the East
we think is gonna finish about five hundred for sure,
I think that's gonna cover it. Tell your friends, tell
your enemies. If you see him, shout out Frank Nolatina,
and apologize to Jared Allen