Speaker 1: All right, welcome in is Friday. It's time for full
court press. I was joking with Veno. You can see
my bed in the background. I am in my hotel
room in Matune, Illinois, very much in the middle of nowhere.
This is the only way I could set this up.
But you know what, that's where I Robbino, That's where
I got home. You see Irvine. Very late last night.
I was like delirious watching that game because I had
been up for well over twenty four hours, and I
was like, I must be dreaming. There's no way they
didn't just call a hook on the Hawaii player. But
sure enough they didn't. They actually called it a file
on the defensive player. I had to stay up for
another twenty minutes. But thankfully for me, Robbino, I have
three straight wins, all in overtime. That never happens for me.
I go down into the lobby here at the beautiful
Hilton Garden in Matune, Illinois, and all they have is
monster energy. So do you think I settled for that?
Absolutely not minus negative two degrees. This morning I went
out and found a bang. We got to just keep
it consistent, staying with a peach, mango bang for the
third day in a row, and there's a lot of
good games for Friday, some games even moved to today.
So I'm excited to talk about the slate with you.
How was your night last night? We got the parlay home.
You were up late too, big second half in Northridge
to get the parlay home.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it was nice to see that. You see,
Davis was running right with Northridge first half. I think
Northridge closed that half with forty one or forty two.
But then right out of the gate in the second
half they came alive there into the mid sixties, I
think before the ten minute mark even hit. So it
looked pretty good because the pace was there, the scoring
was there, and of course our favorite black background comes
through again as Northridge gets into the mid nineties. So
good job by us, and uh, maybe we will look
to repeat this thing here today. Like you said, pretty
decent card here, Adam.
Speaker 1: I have to say, listen, you hear it in baseball
all the time, Hitters love hitters love shooting against the
or hitting against the great batters high Why would it
be any different for basketball players? Right? Yeah, you can't
you can't tell me that that's not a thing and
that's that's not why that's there. And yeah Northridge, no
sweat for your side for your leg of the parlay,
big sweat for my leg. But Irvine gets it done.
And Robin know we are. We're basically a two team
or away from from being back even on the parlay.
So that's what we're gonna go with today because tomorrow
I'm sure we're going to do a three teamer with Kelly.
So we're going to find a two team winner for
you again today to get that parlay right back around
even for the year. Which listen, it's January thirty. That's
like they we're doing a parlay every day. If we
can come out ahead on these, that's extremely impressive. I
see by you in the chats like telling me, you
know his his Florida Atlantic theory may very well be true.
They get crushed by Memphis last night, So appreciate you,
Brandon Young. Brandon says great stuff yesterday. Yeah, we're just
trying to find winners every day. There's three hundred and
sixty five Division one college basketball teams. There's got to
be something out there that we can make some money on.
So Robino, I'm going to go to you for this one.
It's a huge game tonight, But can we make any
money in East Lansing the Top ten battle Michigan Michigan State,
Big one in the Big ten.
Speaker 2: It seems early, Adam, like somebody feels like you can
make money with the over in this game. One forty
five all the way up to a couple of stray.
One forty eight's out there. One forty seven and a
half the predominant number. I'm not so sure I agree,
but I could understand as somebody making that argument legitimate argument,
you could you counter. But let's start with what's really
gonna happen here. I mean, let's face it, tom Izzo
is going to do or attempt to do, what tom
Islo's attempted to do to teams that want to play
quick pace for however many years his career has spanned,
I lost track at this point.
Speaker 3: Izzo's been there so long.
Speaker 2: But Michigan State's going to try and control tempo and
Michigan's going to try and run, and we'll see who
wins that battle. Beyond that, I would say this, Adam,
as good as Michigan State is as a rebounding team,
and they're tremendous Statistically, they're number one I think in
the conference and defensive rebounding, so second chance points are
hard to come by, but Michigan does have the size
of that this year on this team in Michigan's front
line is bigger than Michigan States. I think Michigan State
is a lot more energy, work, ethic, et cetera, et cetera.
We know Islo's players over the years. There's a couple
of things here. First of all, when they got Londenborg
from UAB, what a coup that was for Michigan Because
Ken Palm actually has him listed as one of the
ten best players in the nation right now. I wouldn't
argue that very versatile frontline player gonna be important here tonight.
I'm sure that Michigan State has their sites set on him.
I kind of feel like this game comes down to
the point guards. Michigan State as good as Jeremy Fears is.
Michigan State has had turnover issues, bad turnover issues, and
Michigan can turn you over, so that'll be important here.
The rebounding might negate itself. I don't know that Michigan
State's going to get the great rebounding Edgit they always
get against other teams, and then comes together point guard
Ellie at Cadou from North Carolina who's been absolutely nailing
it from three this season. And if Michigan gets these
threes to fall, we've seen this before, you have to
defend them at all three levels, and I don't know.
I would say that Michigan might be the toughest cover
defensively that Michigan State has had all season long, for
the amount of things that they have to defend against
this team. To me, Michigan is the better team. Michigan
State is obviously well, I won't say obviously, but I
will say with Tom Izzo, they're always in these types
of games, very very feisty, so to speak, and that
can win out here. Really tough game for me sidewise, Adam,
And I don't know that I agree here with this
total being pushed up. That kind of indicates somebody out
there thinks that Michigan State will be forced to run
at least a little bit with Michigan and get this
game open core. I don't think Tom Mizzo wants this
game seventy five, seventy five or seventy four seventy four
to get it up and over. He may not be
able to resist it. I'm not sure if I had to.
If I had to make a play in this game,
I think I would take the Michigan side at minus one,
just because I think that that rebounding edge on both
ends that Michigan State usually holds such an advantage in
probably is negated quite a bit here by Michigan's bigs.
That's also a really good rebounding team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, I remember walking out of the Breslin Center
with Brian Power earlier this year, and credit to BP,
who was quite a few spara IPAs deep at this point,
but still sharp as attack as always for him, and
he goes Trigg, he goes you know, Michigan State. They
just won that game. They went one for fourteen from three,
and they just beat that Arkansas team, which was a
good win for them. They went one for fourteen from three.
The reason I bring that up is because they've actually
turned into a pretty respectable shooting team from where they
were earlier in the year. Right, Like, there was a
couple of games earlier in the year where they could
not hit an outside shot, and you know, going into
tonight's game as they just try to get the most
updated numbers. I mean, three point percentage this year is
now thirty five point nine percent as a team, which
is a top seventy five mark in the league. And
that of course is included, like the slow shooting start
for them is included. But why is that? Rob Their
floor spaking, spacing is better, That's all Tom is Oh. Listen,
Tom is Oh. He's still a college basketball coach, right,
He's He's not just going to the portal and bringing
you know, new roster in every year. That's why he's
so frustrated with the current state of college basketball, because
he wants to get guys in, develop his own guys
and build a team, which amazingly he's been able to
somewhat do in the current landscape. But I think that's
why you see a team like Michigan State as they
cleaned some of that stuff up. Because again I left
that Arkansas Michigan game, which was like the first end
of the season, and I was like, man, Arkansas is
the better of these two teams, no question about it.
Probably because they had more talent, right, like just talent
at the time. But the more I watch Michigan State play.
The more I'm coming around to them being like legitimate
top ten team. Now, what I can't get down with here,
Rob is the fact. And this goes back to our
discussion on Tuesday when we talked Michigan State Nebraska. I
think the pendulum has finally swung in the value department
where it was like Michigan cannot cover these big numbers.
Nebraska ends up being without multiple starters, and Michigan still
doesn't cover. I can't when was the last time they
covered a spread. It's been a while, right, Like it's
been maybe since the USC game, which is it was
a long time ago at this point. But here you go,
Now you don't cover against Nebraska on Tuesday, and suddenly
all you have to do is win the game. I'm
convinced if like they come out and steamroll Nebraska or
they're covering some of these numbers, you're probably looking at
Michigan lane like three here, maybe even three and a half.
So the fact that you can get Michigan minus one
kind of feels like a buggin on the number. But
for me, I still listen, that's a great I've now
been to the Breslin Center twice. That's gonna be awesome.
Give me a tremendous atmosphere. I want to like Sparti
because I do think that they're better than they get
credit for. But I think the books have sucked the
value out at this point. They swung the page one
too far, and now at Michigan minus one, I just can't.
I would need more there. I would need at least
three to play Michigan State.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to your point, it's seven straight non covers by
Michigan after the Nebraska game, so oh and seven covered
one Big Ten game all season long. Yeah. When you
set this thing virtually at a pick them, uh, you know,
it's hard to not play Michigan just because of their
versatility at them.
Speaker 3: There's and another.
Speaker 2: Like I said before, the Michigan State turnover problems. They
really have to hope those don't creep up tonight because
Michigan will force you to turn it over. And I
think Michigan States again the advantages that they hold their
strengths are pretty much neutralized by Michigan having identical strengths.
So we're gonna see home floor could be the answer here.
It is oftentimes in college basketball the answer.
Speaker 3: To who wins and who loses.
Speaker 2: We'll see if Dusty May's team is phased by this
environment or not. Probably not, but we're gonna see. Like
I said, for those who haven't.
Speaker 3: Seen the UAB kid play.
Speaker 2: Last year or this year, just fantastic and Michigan at
so many levels, just so good. I'm really surprised that
Elliott Cadou is shooting the way he is on a
consistent basis this year, but he's been phenomenal for Michigan.
Speaker 1: Two top five defensive teams, two top ten rebounding teams,
it very well. Maybe who takes better care of the
basketball both of these teams will turn it over. I
would say that that's one of the weaknesses you could
point out on both sides. It might just be who's
more composed here. And like again, for me, I think
it's gonna be easier for Michigan State to be composed
on their home floor. Like if it comes down to
shooting the ball, I think they shoot it a little
bit better at home. But man, you're just the books
are not giving you anything there. I mean, they're really
they're really pricing in that home run home spot. In
my opinion, I feel like you should be getting at
least three with the with the Spartans, and last I checked,
we're still at like one one and a half here,
I believe right still.
Speaker 2: Dad, I'll say really quick, I do see a lot
of ones out there.
Speaker 3: Adam.
Speaker 2: When's the last time we saw a Michigan team total
listed at seventy three and a half. I mean that's
like fifteen point thirteen twelve to fifteen points less. There's
been some in the nineties. Seventy three and a half
is a low number to add of Michigan, but that
shows you the respect for the Michigan State Defense and
the Michigan State home floor.
Speaker 1: Here, it'll be a good one. There's a lot of
good ones tonight. I have so Drake Dimes d m
me before the show and he he he always jumps
in and don't and donate. So uh, he said, Hey,
I'm gonna miss the show live today. Can you can
you please talk Grand Canyon Boise for me? And I
see some people in the chat looking for that game
as well, So let's head out to the Mountain West. Rob.
You know I I told you I would have. I
I lean think thankfully. I I've been pretty good this week.
You know about like throwing games out that would have lost.
Although yesterday I ended up only going with one play
it hit with ucre yesterday, I would have had a
decent I probably like of the five games I threw
out or the six, I think I would have gone
like four and two. But Rob, I told you it
was I was spared a what would have been a
generational crash out if I had had ended up playing
Grand Canyon the other night, which I was very close
to doing. Can you just walk me through what happened
in the final like one second of that game, because
I missed the actual live ending of regulation.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there was a whistle blown with zero point eight
on the clock for a three shot foul.
Speaker 3: And the.
Speaker 2: Clock ran all the way to zero, and the referees
went back and checked the tape, checked for the foul,
checked for the time, decided that there was truly a
three point shooting foul and there actually were eight tenths
of a second left, so they reset the clock from zero.
Grand Canyon, actually I thought they won the game because
the clock ran out and then the battle went to
the line and made all three free throws, got it
to overtime and win.
Speaker 3: Sixty six to sixty, which is and if we.
Speaker 2: Talk about UNLV Nevada later, I'll probably reference what I'm
gonna say now into that game as well. For Grand Canyon,
that would have been a monster win, Adam, because they
did it without two of the most key components in
their backcourt. Brian Moore, who's their point guard and their
premiere playmaker, doesn't play in that game. Caleb Shaw, arguably
their best three point shooter, doesn't play in that game,
won't play tonight. They're really nervous about More as well.
I saw Bryce Drew said maybe we hope he did
practice Thursday, but it's a hamstring injury, and who the
heck knows how long that lasts for More So the
couple of things here, The fact that they almost won
that game in Nevada is pretty good on Grand Canyon's part,
And I don't know what it says about Nevada having
a struggle like that against a team without two of
their best backcourt players.
Speaker 3: Both get over twenty minutes. Like I say, More is
the playmaker on this team.
Speaker 2: So let's move that into two night against Boise State,
which has been for Leon Rice and his style. This
has been a really high scoring team in league play,
and they maintained the fantastic defense that leon Rice has
generally preferred to teach his team throughout his career. This
is a very tough matchup, I think for Grand Canyon
if more doesn't go. Honestly, Boise's probably the right side here.
As good as Grand Canyon's half court defense is, et cetera.
They do have some flaws in this team. Scoring would
be one of them. Against the Boise State team that
the place, the building will be electric. Boys, you will
have to fight that off. Grand Canyons first year in
the Mountain West, so it's a place you're unfamiliar with
right your first trip in. What is it like here
on a Friday night? But to me, the personnel gap
here would be huge if in fact Brian Moore doesn't play,
and I don't know that they can. You know, Nevada
that offense is not really good and it showed up
that night, but Grand Kenyon was able to defend him.
I don't know that they can defend Boise for forty
minutes here and at the same time be able to
score enough to outscore Boise. So my lean here is
to Boise State. My other lean is toward the under because,
in my estimation, if there's any way Grand Kenyon can
win this game, they have to just lock down defensively
not foul because they're a high, high volume foul team,
and Boise State gets to the line a bunch. I
think I saw this morning they were number two or
number one inside Mountain West play at getting to the
line free throw rate. So Grand King is going to
have to play defense without fouling. I do think if
you're going to be without show Off for a couple
more games here, but if you're without more tonight as well,
and I would lean Boise State in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So the one thing you left out when you
were talking about the Nevada game is Grand KNY was
plus four and a half and they ended up losing
by six in overtime, which would have which would have
again sent me, but thankfully I was not on that game.
I was like, I had secondhand anger for anyone that
had Grand Canyon in that game, because they deserve to win.
They should have won the game and and and as
you pointed out, they did it without Shaw and without more.
Now I think they're going to be without both of
them here tonight. But Rob, you know, this is this
is how what I would look for in this game. Uh,
if both of those guys get announced out, because it's
the thing with like the books and and betting and
stuff like that, is like sometimes the stuff is priced in.
But then it'll be like they'll announce something we already know,
and then the line will move again, right, And it's
like if there's some egregious move toward if like let's
say Boise gets slammed here right and takes money from
the point where it is now and suddenly that thing
steams three or four points, I'd be willing to play
back with Grand Canyon at that point because because I
I think that well, first of all, go back to
the first meeting. Grand Canyon demolished them up in Boise.
I don't think that game is ever close going off memory,
but I'm pretty sure they won by twenty. Here's the
problem with Grand Canyon. With those two out against most teams,
it's gonna put you in a scenario where you're basically
playing six guys. Right, Like, you take those two guys out,
they they don't have depth beyond like eight or nine.
They're probably playing six guys for the majority of the game.
You know, yeah, you might steal a minute or two
here with like the ninth to ten guy off a bench,
but mostly that's gonna be six guys. Boise's not like
insanely athletic that That's something I noticed. I got to
see a Boise State game at the pit last year.
They but when they played New Mexico, and something I
had been thinking about for a while kind of like
came to fruition in that game, and I started to
look for it a little bit more, and I'm just like,
what this team's not. They have no athletes. They have
some really good basketball players on Boise State roster, but
they lack athletes. So they're not like exactly the team
in my opinion, that's going to exploit like a depth
type thing like where it's just like, you know, they're
not like so overly athletic that they're going to run
you into the ground. So I actually think Grand Canyon
might still be able to function a little bit even
without two of their best players. But the key here,
rob is going to be the market overreacting, right, which
I don't think has happened to this point. I'm just
trying to toggle back to the current line here. So yeah,
like we're still sitting at Grand Canyon minus one minus
one and a half. If this flipped and then suddenly
I could catch like two and a half with Grand
Canyon at home, which is going to be a tremendous atmosphere.
I got to go there last year. Awesome, one of
the best I've seen for like just a I mean,
they are hyped from They actually set up a tailgate
right in front of the arena, so because of of
course it's Phoenix, it's warm, you can do up like that.
But they've got like tent set up for the kids
and like cornhole and like all the games and like
drinks and stuff, and it's all pre set up so
they just come in and hang out and you can
hang out like hours and hours before the game and
then go in. Yeah, it's gonna be a tremendous atmosphere.
I think if you just randomly gave me an extra
three points with Grand Canyon because because their two guys
are out, which again the books already pretty much know
this in my opinion, so it would just be extra
I think I'd take Grand Canyon in that scenario and
roll the Dice because I don't think Boysey can fully
exploit those guys being out by you says this is
a classic Friday smash spot with the Lopes. Don't overthink it, Man,
Mountain West. Tough to win on the road in that conference.
It's always been tough to win on the road in
that conference. And there they fit right in with that narrative.
That's the full marks for home court there, Rob.
Speaker 2: Yet I do wonder again, we spoke a little bit
about the unfamiliarity with the arena for Boise State, and
I do wonder a little bit about the unfamiliarity with
Grand Canyon as a team the first time around. Leon
Rice now has a chance to go back make some
adjustments to what happened, what went wrong in that case,
Shaw and more were pretty significant contributors in that game
as far as minutes are concerned, and like you say,
they go a little bit deeper.
Speaker 3: Than some team.
Speaker 2: Still that offensive performance the other night, I guess you
could look at it two ways, and either we respect
Grand Canyon for going into Reno and playing as well
as they did without two key components in the backcourt.
And again it's a cluster injury, right it's two pieces
of the backcourt. It's not one backcourt one front court
where maybe you could overcome it. Do you respect that
more or do you disrespect Nevada for not being able
to take advantage on your home floor.
Speaker 3: It is kind of crazy too, So we'll get to
that maybe a little later.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is this is a theme for me today.
There's a so I guess we'll do the promo now.
I am like ninety five percent sure that I'll have
a five percenter today. I haven't put anything out yet,
but it's I'm trying to confirm some some info on
a couple of games because like Grand Canyon, I mean this,
we get to this point in the year and you
know there's that there's guys, it's it's can be walking
wounded a little bit. And so I'm just kind of
I've got my eye on a couple. I have a
good there, well, without a doubt I'll be playing something.
But there's a good chance it's going to try to
run this streak up a little bit. Tonight, Rob and
Go five percenter, which means you should check out mine
and Rob's joint package double the CBB Firepower. It's Friday,
so it means it's the weekend package. So I mean,
you know, if you if you're into uh, you know,
like cost per game and keeping it low, this would
be the day to do it. Because of course you'll
then get Saturday when there's a trillion games morning till night.
So check that out again. I haven't locked anything in yet,
but you know I will be, maybe even before the
end of the show. Maybe I'll throw another one out
for free like we did yesterday and the day before.
Maybe I can't throw another one out for free. I gotta.
I've given a lot away this week, Rob, so you know,
maybe maybe I gotta Maybe maybe won't do that, but hey,
we're here to share opinions and ultimately, like the best
compliment I've received this year has nothing to do with
picking winners and losers. It's the DM I got the
other day where it was just like, hey, like you,
you got me to look at something a different way
than I was looking at it, and I was able
to make a good bet or not or or in
Swizz this case, not make a bet. He says, good
call on the moine. I'm glad I changed my bet
after listening to you. Yeah, I mean listen. It's so
hard to know everything about every school. I certainly don't,
but like I live twenty five minutes from La Moyne,
so I'm probably gonna just be a little bit more
tuned in. And some of the folks in the chat
whoever had New Jersey Institute of Technology yesterday, great call,
that was someone in the chat. So yeah, I think
we uh, you know, that's really the point of this show.
So so appreciate you guys for that. All right, Rob Vino,
let's get back out. Well, we're gonna do this one. Uh,
your boy is going to be going. It's going to
be back in the car today, not nearly as long
as I was yesterday, So I pretty much have a
whole a whole day to do my thing before this game.
But I will be at Shape Eats Arena tonight. I
think it's how you say it, Saint Louis. I'm about
two hours from Saint Louis right now, and that's where
I'll be tonight for what sum are calling the biggest,
one of the biggest home games and in Saint Louis history.
From a you know, just a hype anticipation stand point,
the game is sold out, and that's a big arena
for the A ten ten thy four hundred seats. It's
already sold out. Uh And I will be in the
building for Dayton Saint Louis, Robino. If Stanford doesn't hit
a crazy three against Saint Louis, they're one of the
unbeaten teams that maybe is getting more attention than they're
getting right now. Although I think I think at least
in the college basketball space, everyone's well well informed about
Saint Louis basketball. I saw this number, I thought it
was pretty big, though, do you think this number is
too big? Robino?
Speaker 3: It depends what you think of Dayton at this point
in time.
Speaker 2: We know what we think of Saint Louis, We know
what Saint Louis is capable of. What do we think
of Dayton? Especially off of this recent three games? Can
you lose to LaSalle, Can you lose to Saint Joe's?
Can you lose to Rhode Island all in consecutive fashion
and be considered any good this year? I'm not sure
Dayton is any good. Obviously, you can mask some of
your problems inside the A ten, and your overall statistics
can look a little bit better than what you actually are,
but this is going to be tough. I almost thought,
you know, the other night we talked about Saint Louis
gw Right, and I think you were making the case
for GW as a dog, and they did come through
as a dog. And you know, twenty twenty hindsight is
always going to be a winner. But in retrospect, I
think to myself, was there any potential that Saint Louis
was looking ahead to the Dayton game on Friday? Now
you shouldn't because gw is probably more of a threat
in the standings, or at least they're of equal threat,
so you shouldn't. And maybe that doesn't even come into
play here, But I would say that I don't have
as much respect for Dayton at this point in time
as maybe I would have earlier this season. Anthony Grant
generally is a coach that has a pretty solid defense.
But some of these numbers over the last few games
inside the league tell me that Saint Louis is going
to score tonight. I guess the question becomes can they
score enough to win by margin? Early money doesn't think so.
Early Money's on Dayton plus the ten and a half.
But of course I don't look at sides as much
as I look at totals, and they're showing me a
number of eighty and a half in this game for
Saint Louis, and I'm thinking to myself, that might be
a spot. Rare have to pull the trigger on Saint
Louis to get to eighty one at home against this
team because Dayton, you know, one of their assets over
the course of time, Adam, has been their ability to
slow games down. We talk about teams that can frustrate
fast paced teams with their slow down offense, with their
pedestrian style. But you've got to be effective at doing that.
And by effective, I mean offensively. You've got to be efficient.
You've got to be in order to keep the game slow.
You have to be able to score. You have to
keep yourself in the game so that you're not in
chase mode. If Dayton gets into chase mode here, that
feeds into Saint Louis even more. To me, that's problematic
for the Dayton side. Dayton doesn't shoot the three very well,
that's problematic for the Dayton side. And at home. You
know my theory on these home teams when there's a
contrast in tempo. I always believe the home team can
control or can enforce their will, their style, their preferred
method on the opponent for more than half the game.
And I just feel like Dayton could get into trouble here.
I don't want to lay the double digit number, but
I do think I like to play Saint Louis open
over eighty and a half points here. To me, this
should be a game where they find mid eighties. I
just you know, I'm not sure that Dayton has. Mike
Tyson used to have an old saying everybody thinks they
have a chance until they get punched in the mouth.
And I think they it feels like they have a chance,
but it's hard to simulate what Saint Louis does in
your practice session, and maybe they have to get punched
in them out the early. Maybe the better play is
early with Saint Louis. As I talk here, maybe Dayton
gets overwhelmed a little bit early and then its Anthony
Grant's a good head coach. But in some way, shape
or form, I like the Saint Louis point scoring angle here.
Speaker 1: You know, I actually think I would if I think
if you like Dayton. So here's here's my thing like
the just if you're just talking numbers, okay, this opened
eleven and a half twelve. If you're just talking I'm
just gonna bet numbers, not teams. I can't stand that
saying that. I want to I want to fight every
time I hear someone say that's ridiculous saying. But I
understand being like that number is off. Okay, Like, for example,
I've got Saint Louis minus eight point seventy five here. Okay,
that's quite a bit off of the twelve opener. But
I am in no rush to to just take the
twelve with Dayton my numbers off, because I think there's
a lot more to it than just betting a number.
I think there's there's a whole handicap, right, There's so
many different variables that come into play, and a lot
of the variables, like you can't just not acknowledge the
huge home crowd, the fact that Dayton might just be bad. Right,
look at what date, look at the last three games
for day Listen, Dayton still gets a lot of credit
for the name on the front of the jersey because
they're good in this league every year. But this team
just lost to LaSalle They just lost to Saint Joe's
and then they lose a home game to Rhode Island.
This might just be a bad team, bad bad relative
to what the what the market typically views Dayton as.
So I'm not saying Dayton is a bad team. They're
still fourteen and seven. They're not a bad basketball team.
But but they're not a contender in this league this year,
and that you know, that just might be that just
might be what we're dealing with, right Like Saint Louis,
even though it's a bad they can still cover a
bad number, right like if they're and here's what I'll go.
I brought Bayou's comment up because he says, maybe Dayton's
a first half place plus six and a half, Dayton's
gonna have to be overly physical to hang in this game.
That's That's what you can do a little bit to
Saint Louis because you know, as good as they are,
you still have Robbiavilla think that something I was critical
of Saint Louis last year when you know they hadn't
realized the Josh shirtz Robbie Avilla. Uh, you know, it
was still year one and they were still trying to
figure it out is I felt like they were soft
at times, and if Dayton comes in and and really
competes in that regard, they can hang around. So the
reason I kind of agree with Byu is it's like, well,
let's see if the physicality works out early, because if
Dayton gets into foul trouble or if Saint Louis finds
a way to sort of would stand that pressure move
the ball hit a couple of shots that it could
get out of hand late. So I actually I don't
mind the look from Bayu. If you like Dayton, maybe
maybe look at a first half play because I think
I think over the course of forty minutes, Rob I
start to agree with you, or like, I think Saint
Louis is going to pick them apart. Eventually. They run
such good offense, they're gonna have the ten five hundred people,
you know, pushing them ahead. Like I do think that
there might be a knockout punch at some point for
Saint Louis. Now doesn't mean that it ends up being
more than a thirteen point margin. I guess it depends
on how the game ebbs and flows, right, because hey,
let's say Dayton gets up early. Maybe the knockout punch
is to come back and win by five, right, Like,
that's very possible. So to me, I couldn't really find
my way onto a side because of that. I do
think there's value in the date and number, especially where
it was. I think Saint Louis is just better. I
don't really necessarily want to fade Dayton coming off three
straight losses, but this Saint Louis team, they might just
be like Generations might be a historically good Saint Louis
Billiken's team, And what we know about historically good teams
rob is they they tend to outperform them market right.
It's almost like you can't make the number high enough sometimes,
So I'm okay with your angle, maybe trying to just
take the outcome out of it and looking for points
because I think Saint Louis may they weren't super efficient
against George Washington the other night, right the game before
my eye buddies that went to that game, they were
at the bar at halftime in Olian. I think Saint
Louis was up thirty seven thirteen at one point. So
if you get that Saint Louis team, you're probably gett
your team total over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just looking at Saint Louis road efforts in
the A ten this year, Adam, how do you go.
Speaker 3: To Loyola and only win by two? Escape with your lives?
Loyola stinks?
Speaker 2: And then how do you go to LaSalle like we've
said twice now and lose out right? And then follow
it up, I go into Saint Jose and I realized
Saint Jose's played a lot better lately, that that basketball
team could be a lot of addition by subtraction. But
then you go to Saint Jose on the heels of
a loss to LaSalle and lose. In Saint Jose the's
road efforts, they did beat Dukine by six, credit him
for that, and Duquine's a pace type team much like
Saint Louis, but they just haven't been good and they're
allowing a little more than they generally would. So I
do like to I'd rather play just my line of thinking,
I'd rather play total here and probably team total with
Saint Louis figuring at somebody as inefficient as they were
against g W. They scored seventy nine and so that
just shows you the capability of this team's offense.
Speaker 1: All right, Robbino, do you do you have an idea
of what you want to use for the parlay yet?
Or are you still I'll let you go if you know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I've got three ideas. Let me just pick
the best idea of all. It sounds like, you know,
maybe you know what. I'll just go because sometimes you
can overthink it and I'd rather just go. And I've
done this before, and hopefully we capitalize here with this
team total. Like I said, yes, they get back to
what I have been doing best with these team totals.
But I'm going to go back to the well one
more time with the Sacred Heart team total over. It's
an in state game against Quinnipiac. Obviously, for Sacred Heart,
you need to have pace of the game. You can't
have a slow team. You have to have a quick team,
which Quinnipiac is, so the pace. The additional opportunity should
be that we've talked enough over about this team with
a Kwan Hill and whatnot. The last time I think
I used them on the show, they did get there,
and then there was one instance right after that where
they didn't get there. But I think this is a
real high scoring game. Obviously, the total indicates that one
fifty six and a half is your number here. Team
total for Sacred Heart in this instance is only seventy
three and a half. I just feel like there's enough
opportunity in a high paced game for a team that's
shown a lot of offense since Hill has been inserted
into the lineup. There were other options to try here
in this game, including the Princeton Cornell full game total over,
which may make my card today. We'll find out as
I look into it a little bit further, but at
this point in time, I think the best way to
go is for me to take Sacred Heart team total.
The number just seemed low to me at seventy three
and a half. I feel like there's seventy five plus
in this game for them, So that'll be my half
of the Parlay Adams Sacred Heart team total will go
back to the web. I think, for a second time
on this show, Sacred Heart over seventy three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't look now, Robino, Sacred Heart is one four
in a row and they're playing, and I think a
lot of it coincides with Ankwon Hill coming back, so
he actually came back in the Maris game back in
early January. That was a game where listen, there's there's
no shame in losing to Marius. This year they actually
covered that game. Sacred Heart was plus five and a half.
Marris won by four. Very interesting to me that the
second game Hill was back, he had twenty one and
Sacred Heart only scored sixty as a team against this
Quinnipiac team, So that that I was trying to quickly
pull that that box score up. But I would imagine
Sacred Heart just had an abysmal three point shooting performance
in that game. I don't know if you have it
in front of you right there, but.
Speaker 2: The ten of twenty seven, and you're right, Hill came
off the bench in that one played Now he played
thirty three minutes, went six of ten from two, but
it was the first game acclimating him back in ten
of twenty seven from three. But how about this, only
thirty nine percent from two point range in that game,
So the overall shooting was twenty one of fifty five,
which isn't great.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what I can tell that they were
fully acclimated the game after that, because that was they
came to they came to Albany and dropped eighty six
on Sienna and dominated pretty much start to finish. I
mean they led the majority of that game. So since then,
even though it hasn't always been like the huge authensic performance. Now,
the game that you're referencing that you came on and
gave out on this show was the Rider game where
they dropped one oh five on Ryder. I remember you
gave that out on the show. But they're still winning games, right,
And yeah, you can look at last over the weekend,
only winning by one against Niagara, only winning by three
against Canisius. But this was a team coming into the
year that I thought would be pushing the top of
the MAX standings. I loved I love Anthony Latina, think
he's a great coach. I really like what they did
in the offseason. The problem for them is they play
no defense. At times. It's really not scoring the basketball.
Their problem is mostly on the defensive end. And where
I'm going with this is Sacred Heart. Before that four
game win streak was one and six in conference play.
Now they're five and six. They're trending in the right direction.
I would not be at all surprised if they hung
around and had a chance in this game, and so
it's probably a little bit correlated with your team total.
But you know, eight and a half nine whatever this
is right now, I wouldn't be dying to lay that
with Quinnipiac. You got a little bit of a revenge
based on the you know, losing the earlier season matchup,
and Sacred Heart is won four straight and they're just playing.
They play such better ball with Anon Kwan Hill in
the lineup, So even though they might not play much defense,
I think they could score enough to cover. And if
they score enough to cover, you're probably gonna hit your
team total. So I'm very much with you with how
you're looking at this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the last piece of that real quick here at
and the less four teams that they've played that they've beat,
those are four the slowest four of the five slowest
tempos in MAC play. If you can get the seventy one,
sixty nine and then one oh five and eighty six,
of course are better than seventy three, but the seventy
one and sixty nine over the weekend against Kensius and
Niagara might as well be you know, seventy seven against
a fast tempo team like Sacred Heart is finally going
to get an opponent that wants to get into their
style of games. So I would think that over seventy
three and a half is a pretty good look here
with Sacred Heart team total.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it wasn't only Hill like they had. I think.
I think Ralph Bayer missed a game at one point.
You know, they had Jon Ferrell out for a game
at one point. So collectively it seems like they're for
the most part healthy at this time of year. And again,
I think a healthy Sacred Heart team I was certain
would be like a top four or five team in
this league this year. So they're a play on in
my opinion, just in general. And if you if you
know so, I don't see why they wouldn't qualify for
that getting this number of points here, and for our sake,
hopefully they just get the points. If they lose, you know,
they can lose, they can give up one hundred today.
If they get their points, we're good. That's all we
care about. All right, let's go, let's go back in.
I gotta I gotta get I see a couple of
people in the chat wanted this game. Joey Cheese texted
me off h off Air, although actually he was in
here earlier asking first of Ivy League Princeton Coronell is
the game that the uh, the chat wants to talk about.
And you know I've been I've been critical of Cornell
this year, Robbino. This is uh, this is not the
Brian Earl Coronell teams of you know, of the past
decade prior to you know, two years ago when he left.
So I've been out on them a little bit. But
pretty nice win for them last time out, so I
actually gave them out on the show. I said it
was a great matchup for them against Brown and they
would absolutely destroy Brown, which they For me, it was
a little bit surprising that they were kind of able
to do the same thing to Harvard. So now you
have Cornell coming in on back to back wins and
they're at home, but they're at home against the Princeton
team that I'm not really sure of. I don't know
that I knew they wouldn't be what they've been the
last couple of years because of Courzavian Lee goes to Florida,
Caden Pierce takes a year off, So I don't fully
know what to think about Princeton. So Princeton Cornell, do
you see easy buckets in this game? Because that happens
in Cornell game sometimes as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's generally the way you look at
Cornell games.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: Not only will they score, because they score at a
rate as good as most teams in the country, but
they're just not a defensive minded team whatsoever.
Speaker 3: A couple of.
Speaker 2: Numbers here that I had from this morning Cornell the
three point shooting here twelfth best in the country, obviously
bread and butter of the offense, but three sixty one
out of three sixty five and three point defense, which
opens the door for Princeton a little bit, which is
a almost a fifty percent shot distribution three point shooting
team in their games away from home, which is interesting
when you look at these splits at them. And the
only reason why I looked that up this morning is
because you've brought up home road splits during the week
for some of these teams. And when I checked Princeton
and I see that they shoot forty nine percent of
the forty nine percent of their shots on the road
come from three point range. And Cornell doesn't defend it
then you have to figure that there's gonna be a
ton of open looks, and you know players with open looks.
I don't care how rotten the team might be at
shooting the three kids with open looks. Eventually that many
they're gonna make a bunch. So to me, this games
set up as an over I had mentioned that earlier,
that that was one of my choices to go with
as half of our parlay. But I can safely assume
that Cornell is going to get theirs. And then if Princeton,
if the matchup dictates that Princeton's going to get a
lot of open threes and that's what they like, and
the other team doesn't defend them, then you know, the
assumption becomes Princeton will get theirs. Then I look at
this number. There's games where Cornell is listed in the
one seventies, and here we get away with a one
sixty one, which to me, Cornell game total baseline is
kind of cheap. In my estimation, Cornell should always be
at least about a one sixty four one sixty five.
So this particular matchup, you talked before about how you
want to fight every time you hear people saying we
bet numbers. Well, this is one of those instances where
the matchup, you know, you can run your numbers and
come up with a side in total pretty easy. It's generic,
it's mathematics. But when you dig into the matchup a
little bit and realize that Princeton's probably going to be
able to score above their season average here tonight, just
because of the way this game will be played, because
of the strengths and weaknesses, the advantages disadvantages. I think
this game gets over when sixty one.
Speaker 3: Muted.
Speaker 1: Sorry, I'm gonna do it. I'm mean I'm gonna put
Princeton in the parlay plus five and a half. I
don't like. I don't like this team typically like I
just and when I say I don't, I don't have like,
like or dislike for any of these teams. Yeah, I
hope they all, you know, do well and put people
in the seats and it's it's good that. Yeah, I
don't really care for them or Iona albany Iona listen.
That's yeah. Those are the exceptions. But Jadwin Jim's a
great building. I've been there. It's really cool place. This
This game is at Newman Arena. It's the new York.
But listen, Princeton, I think you're right, Rob, this is
not the worst matchup for Princeton. It is so something
Instant doesn't do particularly well is move the ball, which
is could could theoretically be an issue against a team
that presses and you kind of have to move it
around to break the press to the press. But they
also don't turn it over a ton and that's huge
against Cornell if you can, if you can can possess
the ball and not just like cough it up and
let them get these like because what happens is if
Cornell forces a turnover, it essentially turns into a transition
open three. So what they do a lot of times
they'll turn over and then they'll get a good look
from three, and that's where they can like accumulate points.
If you're not letting them do that, you can break
their press a little bit. There's a lot of easy points.
I've talked about this multiple times this year. There's a
lot of easy points on the back end of this
Cornell zone. Whereas where if you have ball handlers and
you can break their pressure and you can just get
you know, into the front court. They're they're not that
good defensively, and and I don't think that, like I know,
they're still playing the same style that Brian or I'll play,
but this is not nearly as polished of a Cornell
team as as you've had a couple of years ago,
when Earl, who's now at William and Mary, was building
this program. I've been on record calling them TMU Cornell
rob Vino. It's like the t version of Coronell. You know,
it's still it works sometimes, but it's just not you know,
it's just not the name brand Brian Earl product. So
my number here, you know, I'm glad that the chat
and Joey Chez brought this to my attention. My numbers
two point nine. So that's enough for me that that's
a pretty big the pretty big edge there just from
a number standpoint. Yeah, I don't I've been to Newman
Arena a few times. I don't bump Cornell tremendously for
like any sort of crazy home court. So Colin Gregory
says Princeton was a look for me. He's gonna look
at Princeton first half plus three. Yeah, I prefer the
full game. I think there's more value in the plus
five and a half full game by you says if
if you know, if they could keep it low and slow,
they could win. Yeah, they define, Well that's the thing.
Princeton could absolutely win this game, no question about it.
Like it. Don't make no mistake. This is not a
good Cornell team. This is a This is a very
average Cornell team that's going to look really good at
certain times against teams that just don't handle the way
they play particularly well. Princeton is the type of team
that I think could handle the way they play. So
this will this will be my leg of the parlay.
Princeton plus five and a half is going to be
my parlay leg Robbino, I have to go to that,
so we I read the comments every day. You know,
if you if you miss any of the show, as
always like and subscribe, or I could jump the gun
there asking for the like and subscribe. It's on the
way to talk YouTube channel. We would appreciate it if
you liked and subscribe when you're over there, and while
you're over there, if you leave us a comment, we
will likely answer the comment. And one of the comments
was you guys don't talk enough Horizon League basketball, and
I was like, hey, you know what, there's no no
hate toward the Horizon. I let the Horizon's a great league.
But you guys got to show up and ask for
the games or because we're going to talk about the
games that you bring up. That's the one thing about
this show not scripted. We're just doing it on the fly.
We prepare nothing. I mean we prepare, but we don't
prepare what we're going to talk about outside of that
first game. So you got to show up and ask that,
you know, ask for the game. So what the one
it looks like people want to talk about. I'm going
to pick the one that I see more comments on,
and that's going to be Doug Gottlieb's Green Bay Phoenix. Rob.
You know, I've been a I feel like I was
ahead of the curb on Gottlieb being a good coach.
Suddenly everyone's like, hey, maybe he knows what he's doing.
And I said, coming into this year, I said, he
learned from that first season what it takes to be
a division one hand basketball coach. I think he came
into this year a much better coach than he was
last year. And now he's starting to get some results.
He's starting to get some wins. I would go as
far to say Robino that he's turning this program around
a little bit. Green Bay seven and four in Horizon
League play, They're only two wins off of the top
spot in the Horizon. They're gonna get another one tonight.
I don't think they're losing to Cleveland State. The question
is will it be by margin? Do you have anything
for us Cleveland State, Green Bay?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting.
Speaker 2: Let's add to that really quick, Adam, because we did
talk about this early in the year, and for those
who missed some Horizon Talk, we were talking about IU
Indy an awful lot early this year because of the
pace of that offense. Some Horizon League cheddar. But Doug
Gottlieb gave up the radio, the podcast or whatever right
to become a full time head coach. Is what when
he made that decision, like mid December, a little towards
the end of December, maybe I remember big press conference,
I'm going to commit myself to this team. And since then,
I mean, it was starting to get good then it's
been a little bit better since then for him. Cleveland
State on a decent run. Let's just go back to
the first game. Played between these two where green Bay
ran Cleveland State out of the gym. At Cleveland State
eighty eight seventy three. Green Bay shot fifty percent from
the three point mark in that one, fifteen of thirty
seventy percent from two point range, So you're talking about
twenty nine of fifty for the game from the floor,
fifteen of seventeen from the free throw line. Just absolutely
shot lights out in that particular game. Question would be
can they repeat it here at home against Cleveland State?
And I kind of don't see why not, Adam, To
tell you the truth, I mean, if you can win
by fifteen on the road and Cleveland State, let's give
them a little bit of credit here they're on a
two game win streak and playing a little bit better.
But now you come into the opposing gym. There was
a point where Saiven and a half Lang seven and
a half with green Bay would look like a ton.
Speaker 3: To lay.
Speaker 2: But green Bay, for what it's worth, has gone through
a couple of games here where they've been able to
do so. I'm not sure that I would lay at myself,
but I am pretty sure that I would play total here.
Both sides are fairly high scoring Wisconsin. Green Bay side
has tried to slow down tempo a little bit. But
the problem for Green Bay and remember with these tempo numbers,
you got to look at both ends of the floor.
They give up shots rather quickly. They're slow on their ends,
slow and methodical, but they're fast on the other end.
In Cleveland State likes to pick up pace, so I
could see pace here. Cleveland State's played three games, four
five games in a row now that have exceeded this total,
which just tells me that they're a certain style at
this point in time. So for me, it would probably
be more of an against the grain. Look at this
total going over rather than inside. First game does hit
one sixty one. Green Bay showed no problem dissecting that
defense of Cleveland State. So for me, I think I
would look that way at them. Didn't play it on
the card, but I think I would look toward game
going over here should be a nice night in that
building for UWGB.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like this is this is another one kind of
similar to Saint Louis for me, where it's like I
don't know if I like it's kind of a bad number.
Like in my opinion, you're being asked to lay quite
a bit. But I also think sometimes the books shade
in this regard when they kind of like want you
to stay away from a certain side, right like like
when they're they're almost like enticing you to take the
dog in a little bit, because that's literally what they're doing.
They're shading, right they want They're like, we prefer your
money to be on Cleveland State here. We don't really
want you cashing your ticket with Green Bay. We're gonna
make it tough for you to do. So, how did
Cleveland State beat Right State over the weekend? That? Or
I'm sorry last Wednesday, So it's actually it's been nine
days since Cleveland State played And I gotta be honest,
rob that one. I either forgot about it or missed that.
But their first road win, they were zero to nine
on the road going into the Right State game, and
they won it as a sixteen point underdog outright Like,
I don't know how that happened. And it followed them
knocking off Youngstown State. I believe they were like an
eight point dog in that game. So I don't think
Cleveland State just magically figured it out that My gut
would say that those two were you know, maybe a
couple of big favorites kind of maybe not taking Cleveland
State as serious as they should have. But I'll go
back to that point. Cleveland State one and nine on
the road. This team, of course, is in a is
very much in a rebuild a Danielle Robinson and took
the North Texas job, so Cleveland State is starting over
with pretty much nothing. I expected them to be one
of the worst teams in the Horizon this year and
up until a week ago when they miraculously won two
games as a huge underdog. They look just like that.
So my concern for Cleveland State and why they're so
bad on the road. They're going to turn the ball
over like crazy. They've been doing that all season. Like there.
I just there's no way they win this game.
Speaker 2: Run.
Speaker 1: There's just no way they can't win again as a
huge underdog on the road when they were zero to
nine before the Right State upset. So my gut says
green Bay probably wins this by double digits. They figured
it out in the second half of that game. In
the first meeting, that was a three point game at halftime,
and I think green Bay dropped fifty in the second
half and ended up winning by like fifteen, So not
gonna make my card because I think it's a kind
of a crazy number to if you're just if you're
in the numbers, not teams camp again, but if we're
talking matchups, green Bay at home, Cleveland State having to
go on the road, Cleveland State one and nine on
the road off of two big upset wins, I think
Green Bay might might have have them, you know, down
double digits early in this game, and I don't know
if they can come back from that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure how much changes from that first
doubting and for what it's worth to get I'll just
repeak Cleveland State's five and oh to the over their
last five games, and it's not close to this one fifty.
Speaker 3: One that we're looking at here tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bayo makes a good point sometimes, listen, Sometimes it's
having a week off helps, like when you're super banged
up or you need a reset, when you don't want
nine days off. Is after you've just beat two of
the best teams in the league. Right, if you beat
two of the best teams in the league, you're playing
good ball. Rob what happens you have a nine day
break and now and then you have to go on
the road where you're one and nine. So yeah, that
that doesn't seem like the best situation for what I
consider to still be a bad Cleveland State team. And
what Brian Power will tell you is a deplore. I
believe he called him deplorable earlier this year. He goes
to he was at one of those Cleveland State games.
I think he might have been at the Youngstown State game.
That arena is like fifteen minutes from his house. So yeah,
not a good team, not someone that's going to get
my money right here. All right, we have hit the
hour mark, Rob and I will be back tomorrow on
Last Call, the the Babysitter version. Kelly and Kelly in
Vegas keeping us on task. We go quick. That's not
the deep dive show. That's just rattle off opinions. There's
one hundred games, so we'll be doing that tomorrow. Today,
we're trying to get back to even on the parlay.
We're also just trying to keep it going. I've had
a really good week so far. I think I've had
a good month, up close to thirty units in January,
which is much needed. I did not have a good
November or December. So I'm getting it back this month
as I hoped I would. I'll go as far as
to say Rob that I thought I would. And now
here we are kind of cashing some tickets. So check
our package out. Double the CBB Firepower, you get everything,
I play everything. Rob plays for a three day stretch,
any three day stretch and without further ado, the parlay
of the day is Princeton plus five and a half
and then Rob Bino is going with Sacred Heart team
total over seventy three and a half, hopefully another two
team winner. We'll see you guys in the morning. Good
luck everyone, cash or tickets. We'll see you guys tomorrow
on last call.