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Speaker 1: We have lots of debt because we have too much revenue.

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Any entity, whether it's an individual business or a government,

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known to be taking in a lot of money and

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expected to take in a lot more in the future.

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We'll always be able to borrow and will borrow, and

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so we have a revenue problem. But people keep calling

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it a spending problem or an under taxation problem, and

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that's dangerous and it's mistake.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Leutz with us Retreat.

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One of my first guests, John Tamney, you were with

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me when I literally had three people watching the channel.

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Two of them were related to me and the third

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one was me and you stuck with me for fifteen years.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 3: I can't express my gratitude enough, but what we were

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talking about fifteen years ago is true now obviously you

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know it as president of Parkview Institute, editor of Real

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Clear Markets, and your latest book is The Deficit Delusion,

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And that's just one of the many delusions that are

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taking place here. The deficit, if I could sum it up,

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would be a non issue if the government didn't spend

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so much money, right.

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Speaker 1: No, I think that presumes that Haites politicians, that they're

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just classical liberals, or Russia's politicians are classical liberals. They

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just choose not to spend, and that's why they aren't

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a debt. No, we have lots of debt because we

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have too much revenue. Any entity, whether it's an individual

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business or a government known to be taking in a

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lot of money and expected to take in a lot

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more in the future. We'll always be able to borrow

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and will borrow, and so we have a revenue problem.

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But people keep calling it a spending problem or an

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under taxation problem, and that's dangerous and it's mistake.

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Speaker 3: Well, we're spending one thing Doge has shown us. It's

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kind of lifted the veil off of the ridiculous things

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that the government finds to basically piss our money away

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on don't you think yes?

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Speaker 1: And thank God, I'm happy for things like DOGE, although

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I say in the book that it's not going to work,

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and I knew it wouldn't work, because, for one, it's

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just hard to get government to give up what's already

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being spent on. Ronald Reagan knew that. When he got

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into office in the nineteen eighties, he found out that

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every program had at least one Republican constituent. So there's

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no way to cut anything. But there's the other problem.

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Let's say Elon musk hats succeeded and got two trillion

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in savings. Smaller government, Oh please, because suddenly Congress has

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two trillion in fresh powder, fresh money to start spending

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on new programs. And they all start small, but once

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they start, they grow and grow. Medicare as I point

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out in the book, began as a three billion dollar program.

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It's on the verge of being a trillion dollar program,

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assuming it's not already. And so I don't want spending cuts. Again,

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it's not about spending. We have a revenue problem. Until

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we address the fact that we've got too much revenue

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now and exponentially more in the future, debt's going to

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keep going up.

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Speaker 3: And even if they don't have enough revenue, they just

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print the difference.

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Speaker 1: Right, I would reject that. If we were printing the difference,

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if Treasury really had to print to pay off its

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debt or to fund government, then we wouldn't have much

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debt because who would buy income streams that are being printed.

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Let's never forget that, no one, we don't. We don't

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earn dollars, and we don't buy dollar income streams. We

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buy what dollars can be exchanged for. And so if

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Treasury we're printing this, no one would want to earn

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Treasury own treasuries in the first place, and there wouldn't

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be any debt.

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Speaker 3: Well, some of it's being printed. If partial monetization has

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to be taking place, it's got to be well, because

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seven twenty percent of our debt that's out there now

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is interest on prior to debt.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Well, but see I argue in the book, that's

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a good thing. Wait, so you're going to tell me

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we're libertarians. You're going to tell me that that is

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a growing portion of total federal spending is just paying

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off debt. Well, good, What I don't want to hear

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is that a growing portion of federal spending is introducing

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new programs.

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Speaker 4: And so.

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Speaker 1: I make a case in the book that, look, social

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Security is a bad idea, Medicare is a really bad idea.

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Keep them because they're a barrier to bigger government because

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they consume more and more of the total budget along

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with interest payments. Let those roll and that gives us

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time to maybe actually have a real discussion about the debt.

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That it's a problem of too much tax revenue. So

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let's actually reduce taxes so substantially so as to not

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have a laugher of effect. That's why we have so

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much debt. Government revenue keeps going up, but let's actually

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bring revenue down so substantially that people don't want to

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lend to us in the first place.

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Speaker 4: Well, we're on our way.

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Speaker 3: What about you know, like Doge, it was successful in

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certain aspects. Maybe it turned into more of a political

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weapon than a economic savior. But now they're talking about

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by January twentieth, eliminating one hundred thousand government regulations that

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are obsolete, illegal, conflicting, or make no sense whatsoever. And

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they've got the tools in place to do it. What

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do you think will happen if we get to January

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twentieth of twenty twenty six and they actually get rid

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of all those rigs.

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Speaker 1: John, I'll take it. I like it a regulations attacks

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like anything else. The regulations. You're quite literally asking people

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who could not get jobs in certain industries to oversee

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those who could and basically tell them what to do.

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What an awful idea. Get rid of them every which

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way you can, and so thumbs up. I know you're right. Look,

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not all of Doge was bad. Anything that shines a

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light on what government does is I think a very

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good thing. I just but when I'm so tired, and

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I quote Musk in the book, I look, I venerate him.

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He's a remarkable human being, Thank goodness he lives in

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the United States. But it's just so exhausting to hear

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about how well we're headed toward bankruptcy and this is

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the end, and oh my gosh, no, we're not. If

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we were headed toward bankruptcy, we wouldn't have any debt.

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The real scandal is the fact that we've got thirty

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seven trillion in debt and the markets keep bidding down

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the yields on treasuries. What does that tell you? It

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tells you that Americans are massively over taxed now and

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in the future. Such the thirty having trillion is a yawn.

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Of course, we can pay it off. It's nothing to us,

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and it's nothing relative to where we're headed in terms

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of revenue collection.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Well, one of the interesting things that people, the many

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of you out there, failed to connect is that the

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income tax and the Federal Reserve almost implemented simultaneously.

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Speaker 4: Right, you can't have without the other.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well I don't. Yeah, the income tax was a disaster.

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You know me, I have the last time I was

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on I think we vastly overstate the impact of the FED.

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I just don't think it's that important one way or

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the other. This is not me defending the FED, but

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I just when people say, well, yeah, look at the

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value of the dollars since the FED was opened up,

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Well no, Actually it was in nineteen thirty three that

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FDR de valued the dollar and FED cheer and Eugene

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Meyer was adamantly opposed to it, but had no power

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to block FDR, so he resigned and bought The Washington

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Post to use it as a vehicle to criticize this

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inflationary president. In nineteen seventy one, FED Chairman Arthur Burns

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beg Richard Nixon, do not sever the dollars link to gold.

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He was once again powerless to control what Nixon did.

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You know, presidents get the dollar they want, sadly, and

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so I just think this focus on the FED is counterproductive.

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Speaker 3: All right, I'm agreeing with you. I think that power

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is less and less. But it appears that the world

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is heading towards some type of economic crisis pre cal

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We're talking about price of gold over four thousand and

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ounce today. A price of silver broke fifty, which is

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a generational, multi generational high. We haven't seen it go

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that high since the Hunt Brothers debacle back in I

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guess it was nineteen ninety if memory serves me correct,

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a nineteen eighty eighty off by a decade. So it's multiperational.

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It's a multi generational high. And silver was the only

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the only commodity to not reach a new high in

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the past forty five years. So that's a pretty noteworthy,

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isn't it.

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Speaker 1: It's hugely noteworthy, I'd think.

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Speaker 4: So.

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Speaker 1: I first came on your show fifteen years ago. If

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you had asked me, or and I had asked you,

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imagine gold at four thousand and fifteen years of silver

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at fifty we'd say, oh my gosh, wow, and what

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but to me and so it terrifies me. But to me,

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it's not a future crisis. It's a now crisis. But see,

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you don't see it. And what I mean by that,

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and no one sees it. Imagine people buying up as

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they're doing silver and gold, they are buying wealth that

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already exists. They are buying two commodities that as the

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dollar weekends, they go up, and so it's a natural

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hedge against the dollar or any currencies decline. Oh what

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a tragedy. We're talking about AI right now and all

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the advances with it, and I'm loving every minute of it.

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But think how much more advanced we would be right

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here and right now if the dollar hadn't been so

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persistently devalued all of the twenty first century. What have

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we not done? What are we not doing? And so

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the crisis is now, and the crisis is now because

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people are buying inflation hedges rather than stock and bond

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income streams representing the creation of future wealth. And it's

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just It really saddens me. But let's not insult what's

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really tragic by saying it's something in the future. It's

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right now, and people are buying gold. That is a

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really bad sign.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a loss of confidence in the system.

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Speaker 1: Right, it's a loss of confidence in the future. It's

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a loss of confidence that in putting wealth to the

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David Bonce and the investor, I thought, put it well,

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not about gold, but he said, I've never wanted to

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buy buildings. I always wanted to buy the people inside

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the buildings, and you know, and buying gold is just

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buying something that does well when money's not doing well.

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Good heavens again, it's not matching talent with capital, which

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is the ways of progress. Economic growth is not consumption.

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That's what economists think, and that's why the economics profession

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is such an embarrassment and such a danger injerious, dangerously

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deluded profession. Economic growth is investment, and there's as as

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the four thousand gold price indicates, there's less investment than

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there otherwise would be.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and so it takes away from investment. And

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the whole system runs on confidence, right.

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Speaker 1: It runs on confidence, but it runs let's elevate the speculation.

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What does George Gilder call quote bubbles? I hate bubbles.

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I think that's an absurdity. But he always says their

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growth spasms. There's these big speculative Oh, what's something news

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along the way. We're going to direct enormous amounts of

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capital to them. Lots of failure will be left in

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its way, and that's the good thing. Look at all

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we've learned through all this investment. You learned nothing when

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you buy gold. You learn nothing when you buy silver.

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You just know that, Oh, well, well I've succeeded. Because

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the dollar's worth less than it was. What a tragedy.

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There's no progress going on here, and so that's the crisis.

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Could there be a future crisis whereby government, in response

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to its horrid oversight of the dollar, does even dumber things. Yes,

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I think that's what happened in two thousand and eight.

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I'll go to my grave saying that the crisis was

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not financial. It was an effect of George W. Bush

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and other Republicans and Ben Bernanke. This is not a

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knock on Republicans, but Republicans always want to intervene, intervening

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the natural workings of the markets. Of course, they created

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a crisis, and so I worry that could happen again.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So if it does happen again, how do you

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protect yourself against that type of thing?

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Speaker 1: Oh, it's well, it's it's it's a gosh, it's a

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great question. I don't know. It's hard to protect yourself.

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Sometimes gold goes down in these scenarios. Sometimes a gold

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goes up. But yeah, you probably want to have exposure

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to wealth that already exists. If there's a quote crisis,

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stocks are less attractive because stocks are a look ahead,

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and a quote crisis signals that government is intervening in

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ways it's basically substituting itself for the marketplace, and so

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the future becomes more bleak as a result. And it's

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just it's frustrating to see where is Larry Kudlow on this,

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Where's Steve Moore? Where are all these Republicans? Why won't

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they go to President Trump and say, you have got

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a problem on your hands. You want economic growth, but

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you want a week dollar, which is inimical to growth,

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precisely because it's inimical to investment. Is Scott besn't just

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going to keep being Treasury secretary while being utterly oblivious

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to the declining dollar. Is this what we've come to

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as Republicans? They can be better than.

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Speaker 3: This, I would hope, But you know, we've just seen

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this like so many times here. And the one thing

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we learned from history, John, is we don't learn from history,

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right yep.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, it's hard to learn from history if we

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don't understand history. And let's go travel back in time

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to two thousand and eight to this day. The history

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is that it was a financial crisis. No, it was

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a crisis of intervention. Economies grow and gain strength from weakness,

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as in when the bad ideas are allowed to die.

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That's the sign of an economy growing because there bad

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ideas are being relieved of precious resources. The crisis was

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one of intervention. To this day, the vast majority of

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people say, well, the economy crashed in twenty twenty because

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of the coronavirus. No, the coronavirus didn't cause any business

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to die. It didn't close any school, didn't close any

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business it did. It didn't eviscerate supply chains. Panicky politicians

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did that. And so how can we learn from history

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when the historians keep stepping on the punchline and the truth.

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Politicians cause crises because they intervene and substitute themselves for

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the marketplace. And they and they rooted in well, if

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we don't do something, the result is going to be

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a crisis. Well that's a self fulfilling prophecy. They are

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the crisis. They were in two thousand and eight, they

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were in twenty twenty, and so my fear is that

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there's going to be another hiccup related to this retile,

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relentless rush into wealth that exists gold instead of wealth

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that doesn't yet exist, stock and bond income streams, and

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the result is going to be government intervening in ways

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that really harmless.

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Speaker 3: You again, all right, well, your breath of fresh air.

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But at least if you get people talking about it,

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maybe there's a chance. When we ignore these things then

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they come back to bite us.

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Speaker 4: And that you know where Well.

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Speaker 1: You're right, and so thank goodness that people like you

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are doing this, that you've stuck with it for all

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this time, three watchers, fifteen years ago, and look at

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where you are today. Let's keep having the discussion. Markets

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do not cause crises. People do not cause crises simply

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because when people fail, they're relieved with their ability to

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continue failing. It's just pure logic, which that's not a crisis.

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That's better. That's a sign we're improving. Politicians cause crises,

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let's shout it from the mountaintop over and over again.

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And they're causing a crisis right now. The dollar is

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the world's currency, and we have a president who thinks

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it's good for economic growth to devalue it, and we

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have a Treasury secretary who's going along with this, not

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not talking to the markets and saying we don't like

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the direction of the week of the week dollar. It's

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really sad and it's really frustrating the Republicans close to

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President Trump won't make more noise.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, like there's like another thing.

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Speaker 3: When interest rates are heading lower, that's a sign of

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bad economic activity. You know, in the old days before

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the Great Depression, when interest rates went up, that was

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bullish because there was demand for money, investment taking place.

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Speaker 4: All of this.

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Speaker 3: So we kind of need to get back to our basics,

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don't we.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's very important too. People always say, well,

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higher interest rates are sign of a credit crunt. Really, well,

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it's probably a sign that those with title to money

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are taking bigger risk with it. The scariest times are

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when we're at one percent or zero. That's a sign

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that those with access to capital aren't taking any risk,

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that they're they're literally directing it to the surest of

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sure things as opposed to new ideas. And so, yeah,

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everything's upside down right now, and it just it becomes

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more upside down when the netwits that the Fed say, well,

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we're gonna we're gonna go to the zero because money's

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tight right now. Well imagine that. And then these are economists.

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These are economists who would say, if you impose rent

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controls on mat Manhattan apartments, there will be fewer apartments

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for rent. How is capital any different? And yet they

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always go to zero and they say, I will see

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we're doing our part. Well, no, you're not doing your part.

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There's always going to be a price for capital, and

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it's never going to be zero, and it's never going

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to be one person.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, and that's the same thing.

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Speaker 3: If we raise the minimum way we create more unemployment.

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That's been proven time and time again, and yet we

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never learned.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you don't mess with prices and politicians mess with prices.

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Donald Trump loves messing with prices, and it's just sad.

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Speaker 3: Again.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a times good instincts from him, but

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it just frustrates me that no one close to him

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is willing to say, you know what, you don't talk

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that way, and you're shrinking yourself. You're shrinking your economic program,

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everything about it when you talk that way.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So all right, well, hey, tell us again where we

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find you, how we connect with you on the web

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and find out more about what you're doing and by

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your book.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, well, thank you as always Carrie for having

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me on. You can find me at Real Clear Markets

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every day. I'm on Twitter every day. I put out

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at least one column every day, and of course you

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can find all my books on Amazon. Is on everyone

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00:22:00,799 --> 00:22:04,240
watch and should buy several copies of each and pass

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them around and read them and lovingly cress the page.

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Speaker 4: Is all that?

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Speaker 3: All right, hey, appreciate you coming on as always. I've

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written a couple of books as well in the process,

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and I've got this book here. The world, according to

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Martin Armstrong, talks about a lot of the issues that

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you've discussed as well. Appreciate you coming on and if

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any questions or comments for John are myself, shoot me

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at email kl at Carrie LUTs dot com.

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Speaker 4: John, We'll talk to you again real soon.

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much, Thank you so much, Cary appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,