Speaker 1: Wednesday, August fifth. Today's episode is about why Bitcoin's lagging
Speaker 1: behind stocks isn't just a temporary dip, It's actually a signal.
Speaker 1: You'll walk away knowing what that divergence means, why custody
Speaker 1: fears are back in focus, and exactly what to watch
Speaker 1: if the market shifts. And I'll tell you one thing
Speaker 1: I'm checking before I close my laptop tonight. So grab
Speaker 1: a coffee and let's get into it. But first a
Speaker 1: quick word from our sponsor. Okay, So here's what's happening.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin spot funds pulled in over three hundred and eighty
Speaker 1: million dollars recently right on que a major cold wallet
Speaker 1: hack moved one hundred and twenty million in stored coins.
Speaker 1: It's a classic tug of war between fresh money pouring
Speaker 1: in and lingering security worries. Bitcoin sat around sixty four
Speaker 1: thousand dollars, up just a fraction. Ethereum dipped slightly to
Speaker 1: about eighteen hundred and sixty seven, Solana hovered near seventy four.
Speaker 1: The total market cap held steady at roughly two point
Speaker 1: two trillion. Bitcoin dominance sits near fifty nine percent DeFi
Speaker 1: total value locked ticked up a bit to about seventy
Speaker 1: five billion. Stable Coin supply grew barely half a percent
Speaker 1: to three hundred and seven billion, and the Fear and
Speaker 1: Greed index sitting at twenty seven. That's firmly in fear territory.
Speaker 1: Not panic, just quiet caution. First, let's talk about that
Speaker 1: cold wallet hack. While fresh money poured into spot funds,
Speaker 1: an old software bug let attackers drain about seven three
Speaker 1: hundred addresses. Corey Klipston from Swan says holders are now
Speaker 1: scrambling to overhaul how they store coins. Think of it
Speaker 1: like finding out your home safe has a master key
Speaker 1: taped inside Hardware. Wallets were supposed to be the bunker,
Speaker 1: but now they're the breach, which means we need to
Speaker 1: rethink personal storage right now. Watch the next forty eight
Speaker 1: hours closely. If more drained wallets pop up, the exploit
Speaker 1: is still active. If movement stops and users finish migrating,
Speaker 1: the panic was contained. Second, looking at Circle, their shares
Speaker 1: jumped about ten percent pre market after earnings beat expectations,
Speaker 1: even though revenue missed by twelve million. The market shrugged
Speaker 1: off the top line miss and cheered the bottom line instead.
Speaker 1: It's like a restaurant with fewer customers, but bigger tips.
Speaker 1: The size of the stable coin itself still drives The
Speaker 1: real story here why this matters. Stable cooin economics matter
Speaker 1: way more than quarterly noise. If Circle's arc chain shows
Speaker 1: real institutional usage next quarter, the earnings beat was a
Speaker 1: clear signal. But if stable coin supply stalls, that revenue
Speaker 1: miss was the actual warning. Third, there's the famous five
Speaker 1: hundred day rule, pointing to a buying window opening in
Speaker 1: late November. This pattern used to print profits year after year,
Speaker 1: but the current market has ignored every other historical que
Speaker 1: this cycle. If the rule fails, the whole price pattern
Speaker 1: thesis takes another bruise. If it holds, traders will probably
Speaker 1: pretend they know all along. The takeaway is simple. If
Speaker 1: Bitcoin trades below sixty thousand into November, the rules credibility survives.
Speaker 1: If it rallies hard before then, the pattern breaks and
Speaker 1: chart historians will be scratching their heads. Fourth, over on Ethereum,
Speaker 1: a new proposal wants to burn staking earnings to zero
Speaker 1: once half of all ethereum is staked. Six researchers, including
Speaker 1: Justin Drake, want new coin creation to vanish at that
Speaker 1: fifty percent mark. It's like capping a fountain, so the
Speaker 1: pool only drains. Validators might consolidate that the real story
Speaker 1: is the potential sudden shortage. Watch the developer calls over
Speaker 1: the next two weeks. If the draft gains traction, Ethereum's
Speaker 1: earnings path changes forever. If it stalls, current payouts stay
Speaker 1: exactly as they are. All right, before we get into
Speaker 1: the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about what to watch for. First, sentiment is
Speaker 1: stuck in fear at twenty seven. Yet etf inflows show
Speaker 1: contrarian buying. That's a mixed bag. Second, stable coin supply
Speaker 1: grew less than one percent and defy total value lock
Speaker 1: rose just to percent. Liquidity is flat. Third, the cold
Speaker 1: card drain and bolts halt show attackers moving faster than patches.
Speaker 1: That's a wild card for everyday holders. Fourth, buyers are
Speaker 1: being picky because crypto lags equities and liquidity isn't expanding.
Speaker 1: Security scares are still lingering that flips. If etf inflows
Speaker 1: persist for three straight days and bitcoin reclaims sixty five thousand,
Speaker 1: the takeaway the market is just waiting for a trigger. First,
Speaker 1: the federal reserve might drop hints about rates or liquidity
Speaker 1: this week. Any comment could shift risk appetite fast. Second,
Speaker 1: we're watching the fallout from the cold card custody overhaul.
Speaker 1: If users migrate to exchanges, bitcoin balances rise and the
Speaker 1: custody debate intensifies. Third circles revenue miss follow up. If
Speaker 1: stable coin supply stalls after that twelve million dollar top
Speaker 1: line miss, stable coin competition heats up the takeaway watch
Speaker 1: the next seventy two hours. One of these could spark
Speaker 1: a real shift. We've added a new filter in the
Speaker 1: dashboard for self custody risk events. It flags wallet hacks
Speaker 1: and protocol pauses in real time. If you're serious about risk,
Speaker 1: check it out. Also, the Alpha tier now includes a
Speaker 1: weekly deep dive on Ethereum upgrades. It's in the discord
Speaker 1: link and show notes. If you got something out of this,
Speaker 1: send it to a friend who's into crypto. That's the
Speaker 1: best way to support us. This is educational content, not
Speaker 1: investment advice. Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See
Speaker 1: you next time.