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<v Speaker 1>Wednesday, August fifth. Today's episode is about why Bitcoin's lagging

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<v Speaker 1>behind stocks isn't just a temporary dip, It's actually a signal.

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<v Speaker 1>You'll walk away knowing what that divergence means, why custody

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<v Speaker 1>fears are back in focus, and exactly what to watch

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<v Speaker 1>if the market shifts. And I'll tell you one thing

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<v Speaker 1>I'm checking before I close my laptop tonight. So grab

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<v Speaker 1>a coffee and let's get into it. But first a

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<v Speaker 1>quick word from our sponsor. Okay, So here's what's happening.

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin spot funds pulled in over three hundred and eighty

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars recently right on que a major cold wallet

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<v Speaker 1>hack moved one hundred and twenty million in stored coins.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a classic tug of war between fresh money pouring

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<v Speaker 1>in and lingering security worries. Bitcoin sat around sixty four

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<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars, up just a fraction. Ethereum dipped slightly to

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<v Speaker 1>about eighteen hundred and sixty seven, Solana hovered near seventy four.

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<v Speaker 1>The total market cap held steady at roughly two point

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<v Speaker 1>two trillion. Bitcoin dominance sits near fifty nine percent DeFi

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<v Speaker 1>total value locked ticked up a bit to about seventy

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<v Speaker 1>five billion. Stable Coin supply grew barely half a percent

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<v Speaker 1>to three hundred and seven billion, and the Fear and

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<v Speaker 1>Greed index sitting at twenty seven. That's firmly in fear territory.

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<v Speaker 1>Not panic, just quiet caution. First, let's talk about that

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<v Speaker 1>cold wallet hack. While fresh money poured into spot funds,

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<v Speaker 1>an old software bug let attackers drain about seven three

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<v Speaker 1>hundred addresses. Corey Klipston from Swan says holders are now

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<v Speaker 1>scrambling to overhaul how they store coins. Think of it

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<v Speaker 1>like finding out your home safe has a master key

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<v Speaker 1>taped inside Hardware. Wallets were supposed to be the bunker,

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<v Speaker 1>but now they're the breach, which means we need to

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<v Speaker 1>rethink personal storage right now. Watch the next forty eight

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<v Speaker 1>hours closely. If more drained wallets pop up, the exploit

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<v Speaker 1>is still active. If movement stops and users finish migrating,

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<v Speaker 1>the panic was contained. Second, looking at Circle, their shares

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<v Speaker 1>jumped about ten percent pre market after earnings beat expectations,

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<v Speaker 1>even though revenue missed by twelve million. The market shrugged

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<v Speaker 1>off the top line miss and cheered the bottom line instead.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like a restaurant with fewer customers, but bigger tips.

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<v Speaker 1>The size of the stable coin itself still drives The

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<v Speaker 1>real story here why this matters. Stable cooin economics matter

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<v Speaker 1>way more than quarterly noise. If Circle's arc chain shows

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<v Speaker 1>real institutional usage next quarter, the earnings beat was a

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<v Speaker 1>clear signal. But if stable coin supply stalls, that revenue

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<v Speaker 1>miss was the actual warning. Third, there's the famous five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred day rule, pointing to a buying window opening in

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<v Speaker 1>late November. This pattern used to print profits year after year,

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<v Speaker 1>but the current market has ignored every other historical que

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<v Speaker 1>this cycle. If the rule fails, the whole price pattern

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<v Speaker 1>thesis takes another bruise. If it holds, traders will probably

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<v Speaker 1>pretend they know all along. The takeaway is simple. If

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin trades below sixty thousand into November, the rules credibility survives.

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<v Speaker 1>If it rallies hard before then, the pattern breaks and

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<v Speaker 1>chart historians will be scratching their heads. Fourth, over on Ethereum,

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<v Speaker 1>a new proposal wants to burn staking earnings to zero

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<v Speaker 1>once half of all ethereum is staked. Six researchers, including

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<v Speaker 1>Justin Drake, want new coin creation to vanish at that

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<v Speaker 1>fifty percent mark. It's like capping a fountain, so the

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<v Speaker 1>pool only drains. Validators might consolidate that the real story

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<v Speaker 1>is the potential sudden shortage. Watch the developer calls over

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<v Speaker 1>the next two weeks. If the draft gains traction, Ethereum's

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<v Speaker 1>earnings path changes forever. If it stalls, current payouts stay

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<v Speaker 1>exactly as they are. All right, before we get into

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<v Speaker 1>the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about what to watch for. First, sentiment is

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<v Speaker 1>stuck in fear at twenty seven. Yet etf inflows show

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<v Speaker 1>contrarian buying. That's a mixed bag. Second, stable coin supply

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<v Speaker 1>grew less than one percent and defy total value lock

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<v Speaker 1>rose just to percent. Liquidity is flat. Third, the cold

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<v Speaker 1>card drain and bolts halt show attackers moving faster than patches.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a wild card for everyday holders. Fourth, buyers are

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<v Speaker 1>being picky because crypto lags equities and liquidity isn't expanding.

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<v Speaker 1>Security scares are still lingering that flips. If etf inflows

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<v Speaker 1>persist for three straight days and bitcoin reclaims sixty five thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>the takeaway the market is just waiting for a trigger. First,

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<v Speaker 1>the federal reserve might drop hints about rates or liquidity

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<v Speaker 1>this week. Any comment could shift risk appetite fast. Second,

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<v Speaker 1>we're watching the fallout from the cold card custody overhaul.

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<v Speaker 1>If users migrate to exchanges, bitcoin balances rise and the

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<v Speaker 1>custody debate intensifies. Third circles revenue miss follow up. If

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<v Speaker 1>stable coin supply stalls after that twelve million dollar top

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<v Speaker 1>line miss, stable coin competition heats up the takeaway watch

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<v Speaker 1>the next seventy two hours. One of these could spark

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<v Speaker 1>a real shift. We've added a new filter in the

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<v Speaker 1>dashboard for self custody risk events. It flags wallet hacks

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<v Speaker 1>and protocol pauses in real time. If you're serious about risk,

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<v Speaker 1>check it out. Also, the Alpha tier now includes a

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<v Speaker 1>weekly deep dive on Ethereum upgrades. It's in the discord

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<v Speaker 1>link and show notes. If you got something out of this,

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<v Speaker 1>send it to a friend who's into crypto. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>best way to support us. This is educational content, not

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<v Speaker 1>investment advice. Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See

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<v Speaker 1>you next time.