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Speaker 1: Welcome to Way Did You Talk Today, the gold standard

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of sports betting shows, where we talked to talk and

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walk the walk. It is Monday, coming off a huge weekend.

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We're gonna recap. We got plenty to break down. Yannie's

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gonna start us off with the steam of Port. Crack

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Man's gonna join us. It was legendary NBA props thoughts

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on Monday Night football and Steve mail Is gonna join us.

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We talk Eagles, Packers. We're gonna talk a little college

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hoops with Missisisis State, Iowa State, and NBA Bucks versus Mavericks.

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Steve's got a loaded segment that's gonna be awesome. All right,

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let's get into it, guys, hit the like button. Hope

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everyone had a great weekend. It was a really really

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solid weekend across most sports for us. So hope everyone's

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doing well. Let's bring on, Yannie, talk about what we

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got going on a little bit of a slower Monday, Yannie,

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I think it's just the weather. Cold everywhere, Yeah, cold everywhere.

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Speaker 2: Such a busy couple days.

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Speaker 3: It's like everybody's taking a deep breath early in the

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morning Monday and getting ready for another big week. Again,

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with so many sports going on at the same time,

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it's always always gonna be enough action on the board.

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Monday Night Football tonight with huge line move, no surprise,

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a lot of sharp money came in on the Philadelphia

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Eagles at that key number of three. Since then, you've

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been getting more Philadelphia money adding risk. That's why you're

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looking at a pick them minus one depending where you shop.

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So obviously they're loaded up on Eagle money early and

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trying to get Green Bay action help balance that risk.

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It'll probably happen green Bay at home, and to pick them,

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I could see two way sharp action because again plus

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three and pick them are two completely different bets, especially

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when you're talking NFL as far as the total pot

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primetime game. Just like last night, they're coming back with

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the over. They didn't get there last night, so they're

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coming back on Monday Night with the over, whether they're

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taking the Eagles or the Packers. I'm seeing teasers with

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the over, seeing parlays with the over. But yeah, it

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looks like by the time this game kicks off it'll

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be a lot more balanced. But early on the line

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move tells you everything. It's been a lot of Eagle money.

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And again this is a revenge game from the playoffs

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of last year. If you remember Eagles knocking Green Bay

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out of it. I think that game was like close

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spread too. So yeah, it'll be a tough, tough game

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for both these teams, big game for both these teams.

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Speaker 2: But I haven't released anything yet.

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Speaker 1: Time will tell. Yeah, yes, you're right. The over did

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not get there last night. One time the score was

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three to two. That's when you knew that the over

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was cooked.

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Speaker 2: It wasn't gonna get there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's interesting about the over money. I mean,

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it's cold. It is really cold up there. It's about

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twenty degrees by the time that game kicks off. Does

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it look like it's gonna be two indy or snowy

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or rainy, But it's gonna be pretty cold.

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Speaker 3: So the more recency because you look at the Eagles,

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they're coming off back to bank games, I mean three

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straight overs.

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Speaker 2: Now, five of their last six games have flew over

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to total.

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Speaker 3: They put thirty or more points up in three of

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those five. They've led up three touchdowns or more in

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all five of those games. And Green Bay except for

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last week where that was an ugly game with Carolina

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where they lost as two touchdown favorites. They had put

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up same thing over over over put in twenty seven

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or more points four straight weeks. Two of those weeks

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they put thirty or more. So I think it's a

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lot of recency bias with both of those teams. Again,

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the total hasn't really moved once it got the forty six.

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The look ahead was like forty four forty.

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Speaker 2: Four and a half.

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Speaker 3: It went up right away forty five forty five and

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a half. Once it hit forty six, that's where it stayed.

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Haven't seen any really take back or anything of note

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from the sharps on that one.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's see any interesting opening lines. We just

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watched Teddy do opening line report. Interested on your end

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about if you see any sharp action on some of

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these early early no.

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Speaker 3: I was actually looking at college football early because I

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always liked to look at my power rankings and how

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those teams did that I thought were phonies, and then

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what they have this week there's not really big like

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Marquee college football game. I was even looking like, is

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there an LSU.

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Speaker 2: Alabama type game?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 2: And there really isn't.

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Speaker 3: But funny that is one of the first bets that

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I saw in college football this week was Arkansas Arkansas

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plus six and a half over LSU in LSU, So

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that was a college football game of note in the SEC,

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probably get most of the attention because again not too

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many primetime games NFL real quickly, Miami, who's coming off

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a big win in that look ahead.

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Speaker 2: Got hit immediately.

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Speaker 3: In fact, Washington were one point favorites against Miami. That

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was the look ahead prior to yesterday's game. So before

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Miami went out there and did what they did and

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beat Buffalo as touchdown dogs, and before Washington looked as

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bad as they did against Detroit, Washington was actually the favorite.

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Speaker 2: Shows you just how.

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Speaker 3: Quickly the market changes, because you're now looking at Miami

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at minus two and a half and rest of short

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they're going up to three pretty quickly. Other interesting is

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green Bay already getting steam and they haven't played yet.

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The look ahead for green Bay next week against the

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Giants was seven. That's already gotten hit. Yesterday it got

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hit up to eight and a half. So they laid

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that seven on green Bay before green Bay even plays tonight.

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And then another one San Francisco. San Francisco, which got

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blown out yesterday, still coming back with them twice that

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the look ahead was a pick that got hit to

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one one and a half.

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Speaker 2: That got hit again.

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Speaker 3: So they like San Francisco on the road saw that

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in multiple accounts, and the last one Kansas City Chiefs,

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Kansas City Chiefs that didn't get hit.

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Speaker 2: Here's what I mean.

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Speaker 3: It was the look ahead that got hit that two

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and a half three look ahead. They moved that pretty

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quickly because it's the Kansas City Chiefs and that's a

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team that they're gonna have exposure on weekend week out.

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That's sitting at four across the board. It'll be interesting

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to see if you get any love for the Denver

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Broncos as home dogs, because up until about a week ago,

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you know, Denver was one of those teams that at

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least was on the rise. You know, everybody was talking

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about is does this team have a shot? Are they legit?

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But yeah, you're seeing, uh, what's it called immediate bets

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on somebody's look aheads, But try to pay attention to

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does it have follow through? That's where Odd's logic screen

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and at least the free one at wager Talk becomes

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so important.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I mean, these are obvious reactions to

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quarterback play. Brian's Brian's as Dart might be concussed. I

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would say Dart is concussed. I have no idea what

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they're doing on that team to keep sending him into

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linebackers like they do. But him getting hurt was the

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least surprising thing. And then yeah, yeah, I.

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Speaker 3: Look, Denver Denver very easily, other than they played one

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bad game where they lost by more than a score.

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That was in Indianapolis, and we all know how good

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Indianapolis right is right now because in fact, Denver was

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only a one point dog in that game.

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Speaker 2: That wouldn't be the case now.

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Speaker 3: But Denver has gone ahead and won what now seven

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straight games, four and three against the spread, which I like,

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they haven't outperformed the betting market. Where they have outperformed

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the betting market is not being able to win by margin,

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like when their favorites. As long as they're not big favorites.

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Speaker 2: They're getting the job done.

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Speaker 3: But when they're losing two, they're not losing by margin either.

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It's going to be interesting to see if Kansas City

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gets faded because Denver's done real good with at least

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of late, they've beaten them straight up I think, two

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of the last three games and covered three straight against

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Kansas City. So it'll be interesting to see if Kansas

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City looks to get revenge because last year, remember they

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sat everyone and Denver beat them thirty eight nothing I

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think the last week of the season.

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Speaker 2: So it'd be interesting if Kansas City's out for a

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little bit revenge.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, there are so many holes you can

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poke in this Denver, I mean barely beating the Raiders

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ten to seven. Bon Nicks the exactly barely beat the

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Texans when CJ. Stroud got hurt. But the Giants that

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was a miracle of all miracle with when they scored

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thirty three points in the fourth quarter. And then bon

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Nicks just, I mean, he just looked awful. So yeah,

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you got I mean, yeah, they're winning. You're right, they're

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not covering. But I imagine this line move has a

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lot to do with eye tests because bon NICKX just

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looks like he's regressing.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I gotta I gotta answer a question that just

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popped up. Financially free. I love the question, my friend,

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I love the question. My man says, why not want

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teaser through some key totals. I'm gonna I'm gonna explain

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something to you. Be very cautious of small sample sizes.

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That is, that is the gambler's fallacy, where we see

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a small sample size of results and we think we

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found the Holy Grail edge You if you don't have

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a statistically significant sample size, there's a lot of randomness involved.

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Speaker 2: So over ten twenty.

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Speaker 3: Thirty bets, teasing those those totals may be advantageous. But

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I promise you this isn't an opinion for me. This

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is math, strictly math based. Men much smarter than me,

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much smarter than me, sat down and did the computations,

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and they came to the conclusion that there is zero

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way to get positive ev out of teasing totals. And

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I can promise you they tried every possible way to

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find an edge, at least like with the teaser cards,

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parlay cards, half point cards, I win cards. Believe me,

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mathematicians have gone through every mathematical computation to make sure

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if there's any inefficient odds even they're gonna take advantage

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of it.

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Speaker 2: And I can promise you I've.

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Speaker 3: Done nothing but move money for the most profitable sports

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betters on the planet for twenty plus years, and only

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once in the last decade has anyone ever even teased

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college football. That happened last year in the playoffs. They

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don't even tease college foot They don't even think you

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could tease college football and make it profitable, let alone teasing.

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I mean college football signs, forget total signs, but NFL totals.

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I'm telling you, brother, I'm glad you made some money

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with it. Be happy, move on with that profit, but

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don't keep placing those bets because they are negative.

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Speaker 1: Ev Yeah, it's a really good point.

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Speaker 3: I love you, brother, I'm glad you beat your guy

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up financial I'm on your side. I hope it keeps

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working for you, bro, I promise you. I want you

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to keep blasting him with them, but just be careful.

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When it stops working, just put that to design and

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find something new.

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Speaker 1: I wonder why that is probably just the like the

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spreads can end up twenty different or just like And then.

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Speaker 3: When the games fall close, Man, there's weeks where every

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total hits, every teaser hits. Don't matter what side you do.

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You know over under dog favorite, that's gonna happen. But again,

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if you're only betting that day, then who cares about

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long term results? But if you're betting next week, next month,

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next year, you're gonna keep betting, then you have to

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look for good bets, you know what I mean. But like,

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if you're only placing one bet, then who gives a

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shit about closing line value? Who cares about shopping for

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the best line? The only thing you care about is

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cashing that damn ticket.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, UFC, it happened again, Yanni. We had a big,

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big move close to a dollar. Yeah, boom feet fight,

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I mean boem Beme's the favorite. He miss his way,

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he looks terrible, and all of a sudden, all this

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money comes in. It is rinse and repeat with this

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because the money told us a story. Chris Padilla gets

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to finish and it's just like this is just tried

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and true. This at least just this year since I've

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been tracking it. After Wigns, you get that big aggressive move,

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it's like somebody.

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Speaker 2: Attention to it. Attention to it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's monitoring the market and taking advantage of information

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someone obviously has. Someone's doing really good after Wavens, and

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there's nothing wrong with telling it. I did that with

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the NFL Draft the last two or three years, there's

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a particular sports book that someone bets into that happens

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to crush these NFL props. I wait till they bet,

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and then I take the next best line after them.

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I say, you go first, sir, you lay them on twenty.

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I'm okay with that. I'll piggyback the one fifty. I've

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got no problems doing that.

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Speaker 1: You know, I bet it's I wonder if it's the

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guy that it's like in charge of the scale. It's

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like this this rain of we need it, we needed

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when someone gets on the scale, they missed. We we

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need to look at the guy. That's like.

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Speaker 3: The apex that they have with like eight signs around

257
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it and tape stuff do not touch, do not And

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I always joke like I'm going to go touch that scale.

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It's like that, I swear, you think like it's got

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all kind of security around it. They have this scale

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sitting in the middle of the apex, but no one

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can touch and stop. Yeah, you've seen in some commission

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some of those scales are a little shaky.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh yeah. They have two scales like what

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on the back for everybody and then one out front,

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and then nothing's more wild than when they don't match

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when they say they make in the back in other countries.

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Oh oh yeah, absolutely absolutely we have uh I mean Janny. Honestly,

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this is probably the best UFC card I've seen of

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the year, and we've had some really good ones coming

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yeah this week, this this card is unbelievable. Capping off

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with uh Is Makachev versus Jack Dela Madelena. We're already

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getting questions about the main of bay initial thoughts here

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on what the line is.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for asking, Thank you for asking. Actually tape

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the show on this last week. When I taped thet

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UFC for on the Line, we did for this one

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that just passed on Saturday. We taped double shows, so

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we did ahead this pay per view. So I had

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to break this card down already. I'm on an island.

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I'm telling you now, sharp betters, sharp guys like the

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Jack dallamed Alina side.

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Speaker 2: They like him as a dog. I'm on the other side.

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Speaker 3: I will not fade is Lamaka chev And here's the

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00:14:35,919 --> 00:14:39,960
bottom line for the reasoning behind it. I was riding

286
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Jack Maddalena. I thought he was undervalued in fact, I

287
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had him against what's it called in his last fight

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with Dalamahammad.

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Speaker 2: I had him as a two to one dog.

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Speaker 3: But let's not forget against Balamahammad, he closed at plus

291
00:14:53,399 --> 00:14:54,039
two hundred.

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Speaker 2: If Makachev fought.

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Speaker 3: Balamahammad tomorrow, the line that they have up right now,

294
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the hype anthetical is minus five hundred. So it shows

295
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you the difference in implied win probability between Makachev and Belah.

296
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But here's what's more important when you break down that

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fight with Blah and Jack Mattilena, here's what the mistake

298
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,519
that I'm seeing a lot I think are making because

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they're saying, look, the Law is the same as Islam,

300
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same wrestling, even working out together, same team, and he

301
00:15:22,559 --> 00:15:23,960
wasn't able to take him down.

302
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Speaker 2: The hell he wasn't.

303
00:15:25,519 --> 00:15:28,159
Speaker 3: He took him down three times, he almost controlled him

304
00:15:28,159 --> 00:15:31,000
for a full round. He only landed two ground strikes.

305
00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,600
That's the difference. Bellah's there to take you down and

306
00:15:33,639 --> 00:15:36,440
control you. Islam's there to take you down.

307
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Speaker 2: And finish you.

308
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 3: If Islam takes you down, he's going to choke you out,

309
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,120
he's gonna sub you, He's going to smash you. That's

310
00:15:43,159 --> 00:15:46,840
what normalgo medoff team does. They're not grappling to control

311
00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:51,039
and win a decision. They grappled to finish fights. That

312
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,559
is what their offense is. And you're talking about a

313
00:15:53,679 --> 00:15:59,240
different level of animal, no disrespect between the wrestling of

314
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,879
Balamahammed and the wrestling of islamaka Chev.

315
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Speaker 2: You know what Islam's going to do and you still

316
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:06,000
can't stop it.

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00:16:06,279 --> 00:16:09,000
Speaker 3: That to me is the highest skill set in any

318
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,679
sport when you know what's coming and you still can't

319
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:13,399
stop it. And he's not going to be out of

320
00:16:13,399 --> 00:16:15,759
his depth in the stand up either. I know he

321
00:16:15,879 --> 00:16:17,320
was a lightweight, but he's not going to be a

322
00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,320
lightweight on Saturday Night. He will be a full welter weight,

323
00:16:20,399 --> 00:16:23,519
that's for sure. So be careful with all that Jack

324
00:16:23,559 --> 00:16:28,159
Madalena plus money because islamaka Chev is still the man

325
00:16:28,279 --> 00:16:28,440
to be.

326
00:16:28,679 --> 00:16:32,759
Speaker 1: I think you and I are Lockstep. I did my

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00:16:32,879 --> 00:16:33,519
tape research.

328
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:34,399
Speaker 4: Yeah are you?

329
00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:36,399
Speaker 2: I thought you were going to be on that dog bro.

330
00:16:36,759 --> 00:16:39,399
Speaker 1: No, no, no, it's this is the hipster I'm calling

331
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,519
this the hipster pick. Whereas it is it's.

332
00:16:42,679 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 3: Like here not saying torupt you because I want to

333
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:47,600
hear your thoughts. But here's what I said, here's here's

334
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:52,440
who he be. Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan and Meve Danny Roberts,

335
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,600
but Siljfes Gilbert Burns, who had lost four in a row.

336
00:16:56,919 --> 00:17:01,000
Those are the wins for JDM, throwing Kevin Full thirty

337
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,559
seven times in the last six months. His only other

338
00:17:03,639 --> 00:17:06,160
good win was Randy Brown, who he saw get knocked

339
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:11,079
out just three nights ago. Yes, but so where am

340
00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:13,920
I wrong that Islam shouldn't be bigger favorite?

341
00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:17,000
Speaker 1: Basil Hafez took him down. Gilbert Burns by the way,

342
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,839
he was losing that fight to Gilbert Burns. Still he

343
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,839
landed the miracle need three year.

344
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:22,680
Speaker 2: Old Gilbert Burns.

345
00:17:23,759 --> 00:17:28,279
Speaker 1: Yes, I think Makachev his time is coming. That is

346
00:17:28,279 --> 00:17:30,039
a lot of wear and tear on that body. People

347
00:17:30,079 --> 00:17:33,000
probably don't even realize he's thirty four. The training, all

348
00:17:33,039 --> 00:17:36,759
the fights. Yeah, remember he moved weight divisions for this fight.

349
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,519
He They him and Kabeb know something and they're not.

350
00:17:40,559 --> 00:17:42,640
Speaker 2: Going to take this risk. Thank you. I'm going to

351
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:43,279
take this risk.

352
00:17:43,319 --> 00:17:47,640
Speaker 1: You're not moving weight divisions to go lose to somebody. Yeah,

353
00:17:47,839 --> 00:17:49,000
I'm with you one hundred percent.

354
00:17:49,039 --> 00:17:52,960
Speaker 3: And yes, seen as wrestling, they've seen his takedown defense,

355
00:17:53,039 --> 00:17:53,799
and they know they.

356
00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,160
Speaker 2: Could take it down. They could take him down. Yes

357
00:17:56,319 --> 00:17:59,920
are levels, there are, there are levels. That is great,

358
00:18:00,079 --> 00:18:01,039
great points, sir.

359
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,880
Speaker 1: A Ballall takedown ain't the same as an Islam takedown.

360
00:18:05,039 --> 00:18:05,559
It's just not.

361
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 2: These guys they want to know my power ratings in

362
00:18:07,759 --> 00:18:08,319
the NFL.

363
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 3: I'm not sure they want to know them because I

364
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:11,759
think they're going to be a little disappointed.

365
00:18:11,759 --> 00:18:12,799
Speaker 2: All right, here you go, fuck it.

366
00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:17,880
Speaker 3: Top five my new number one power rating wise, power

367
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,960
rating wise, my new number one Detroit Lions, followed by

368
00:18:22,039 --> 00:18:26,799
the La Rams, followed by the five and four Kansas

369
00:18:26,799 --> 00:18:32,000
City Chiefs, followed by the Buffalo Bills, followed by Seattle.

370
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:37,319
So there you go, Detroit Rams, k C, Buffalo, Seattle,

371
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,759
all within two points of each other. So the Rams

372
00:18:41,759 --> 00:18:44,440
on a neutral field would only be about one and

373
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:48,319
a half almost two versus the number five team Buffalo.

374
00:18:48,519 --> 00:18:51,880
Those are the most infact to share with you, those powers,

375
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,000
those golden power ratings.

376
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,400
Speaker 2: College football will go over.

377
00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,880
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, all right, so Yati, tell ever what

378
00:19:00,079 --> 00:19:02,440
you have up here at wager Talk. I know it's

379
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,200
not so busy right now, but like we said, it's

380
00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:05,200
the low before the storm.

381
00:19:05,279 --> 00:19:07,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, coming off of a three and oh sweep of

382
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,640
four percent best bets on college basketball Saturday three bets,

383
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,880
three and oh fire two bets to night already four

384
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:16,960
percent and a three percent.

385
00:19:17,039 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 2: That package is up. I have a really really really.

386
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:24,039
Speaker 3: Strong lean in this NFL game, really strong lean. If

387
00:19:24,039 --> 00:19:26,599
I get confirmation, I'm going to fire a big five

388
00:19:26,599 --> 00:19:30,119
percent play. If not, then subscribers will probably get a

389
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,519
three percent for at the most. But if I get confirmation,

390
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,920
I really like this Monday Night game. I got to

391
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:36,920
see if my read's right.

392
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:37,160
Speaker 1: Though.

393
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:38,920
Speaker 3: If it's right, I'm going to fire like I did

394
00:19:39,039 --> 00:19:42,720
yesterday's on our five percent in the Giants game.

395
00:19:42,759 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 2: And that's what a five percent should do.

396
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,559
Speaker 3: We should go under forty seven, it should close forty

397
00:19:46,599 --> 00:19:48,359
four and a half, and it should land right on

398
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:52,079
forty four. That's a beautiful, beautiful under. But yeah, big

399
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,279
week ahead. Thank you. We got the pay per view

400
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,640
for Saturday. I have college football once again. I'm coming

401
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,559
off of losing week in college football. Tell you when

402
00:19:59,559 --> 00:20:01,279
I win, t you and I lose. We've had twelve

403
00:20:01,319 --> 00:20:03,359
weeks of college football. I've turned a profit in ten

404
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:07,039
of those. We'll keep that going. And of course NFL

405
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,039
ahead and day by day NBA, college basketball, NHL and

406
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:12,799
anything good I could find, I'm.

407
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 1: Going to fire.

408
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,039
Speaker 2: So best of luck to you guys. Thank you, thank

409
00:20:16,079 --> 00:20:16,480
you brother.

410
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:21,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Yanni, thank you so much. Great steam report, Yannie.

411
00:20:21,599 --> 00:20:23,079
You'll be back this a little bit in a couple

412
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:24,400
of days, and we got to we'll get ready for

413
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,640
a big, big weekend. Thank you, Yanni. All Right, you

414
00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:33,200
ask any college football, I'll check not at this point,

415
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,079
but we do have a big free play coming up

416
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:36,880
in all around the world, so I promise to get

417
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:41,079
you that. We're in play tonight, guys in Monday Night Football.

418
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,720
We do have one prop. It's very random that we're

419
00:20:43,759 --> 00:20:45,400
six and two and we won our last three and

420
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,240
Monday Night Football. I don't know why, but Monday Night Football.

421
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,799
For whatever reason, the props are really good. We've been

422
00:20:50,839 --> 00:20:54,680
talking about props in NBA and NHL, thirteen units in November.

423
00:20:54,839 --> 00:20:57,759
We're still running that special sixty nine dollars for seven

424
00:20:57,839 --> 00:21:00,640
days worth of props. We want to combine this NHL

425
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,359
and NBA props into one package because we want you

426
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,640
guys to get seven days. Any night. Hey, I could

427
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:06,920
go on a losing night. I had an zero to

428
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,799
three night last week. So anybody that got that, I apologize.

429
00:21:10,839 --> 00:21:13,519
But this is why we preach seven days. Because you're

430
00:21:13,559 --> 00:21:15,000
with us from the beginning of the month. You're up

431
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,519
thirteen units and your bank roll is really, really happy.

432
00:21:17,559 --> 00:21:20,039
So partner up with us. We got a monster card tonight.

433
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,759
Three NBA plays and two NHL plays. That's a lot

434
00:21:22,799 --> 00:21:24,440
for us. So you want to get it today, you're

435
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,000
gonna get The week started off with five props tonight.

436
00:21:27,279 --> 00:21:29,920
That's over at wager talk dot com wt do buzz

437
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:34,319
slash Al NFL was going great until that damn game

438
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,480
last night. We had Aronde Gadson over his receiving. He

439
00:21:37,519 --> 00:21:39,920
gets hurt. We had Quitting Jobson over his receiving. He

440
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,160
goes under by one yard. But we're looking forward to

441
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,759
cashing this prop tonight, So let's bring in someone else

442
00:21:45,839 --> 00:21:48,640
that knows a thing or two about prop. Bill, you

443
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,039
know more than a thing or two. You know a million,

444
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,440
a million and two things about props. Happy Monday, How

445
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:55,519
are you hey?

446
00:21:55,599 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 4: What's going on? Buddy? Everything good?

447
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 1: Everything's great, man. It's NBAC in its NHL season. The

448
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,319
props are rolling in and I actually had a friend

449
00:22:04,319 --> 00:22:06,119
of mine say He's like, do you know you're just

450
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,279
in a better mood when we have daily sports that

451
00:22:08,319 --> 00:22:11,119
you can play props. I was like, is that really true?

452
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,319
He's like, yes, when you don't have daily sports and

453
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,759
props to play, you'r like mood changes. So yeah, I'm happy, man,

454
00:22:17,799 --> 00:22:19,200
It's it's going great.

455
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,759
Speaker 4: Props are where it's at. I mean, you know, I

456
00:22:23,079 --> 00:22:25,279
not want to look at my success, but I look

457
00:22:25,279 --> 00:22:27,319
at a couple other guys that I know that bet

458
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,839
props and props is where it's at. I mean, I've

459
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,839
destroyed props so far this season. NBA props are killing it,

460
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,599
NFL props are killing it. I preached that every single

461
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,559
week on the show and on other shows. I do

462
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:46,720
you know, NFL sides are difficult, NBA sides difficult. Totals

463
00:22:46,759 --> 00:22:49,839
even can get a little difficult. I have some success

464
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,519
on first half things totals, but I do a lot

465
00:22:53,559 --> 00:22:56,960
of them. They day of game based on over movement

466
00:22:58,039 --> 00:23:00,599
throughout the week. I always say it's it's tough to

467
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,559
beat day of game because the market's so efficient. NFL

468
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:10,160
first half totals. I'm a lifetime winner doing that because

469
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,519
of some early movement over in the week. They sometimes

470
00:23:13,559 --> 00:23:15,279
they don't know how to move around these key numbers.

471
00:23:15,319 --> 00:23:18,839
Yesterday I caught one Draftking FanDuel had twenty three and

472
00:23:18,839 --> 00:23:21,400
a half on the Giants first half. I don't even

473
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,039
know how they had that. There's twenty two and a

474
00:23:23,079 --> 00:23:26,039
half everywhere. Some of the major sports books at twenty

475
00:23:26,039 --> 00:23:28,759
three and a half. One or two had twenty three.

476
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:30,960
But I even like the under twenty two and a half.

477
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:34,359
Twenty three is a real key number first half. But again,

478
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,480
I was shocked to see that number at DraftKings and

479
00:23:38,759 --> 00:23:43,480
FanDuel even up until kickoff. Shocked. So a lot of

480
00:23:43,519 --> 00:23:47,359
these big sports books, like the DraftKings and Fandles, they

481
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,680
will keep the number high because they know what the

482
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,119
public does. They know the public loves to bet over

483
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:57,759
on things, and it's just a built in money maker

484
00:23:57,799 --> 00:24:02,160
for them. Theyre's customers that just don't bet under and

485
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,440
don't bet underdogs, by the way, on anything. So I

486
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,640
get it. I'm glad we can pick them apart. But

487
00:24:09,759 --> 00:24:14,559
nothing like the the NFL props has anyone has seen

488
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,240
that has been with me this season. In the NFL,

489
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:22,559
especially the NBA the last few weeks, we're destroying props

490
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:27,519
and thank God, there's market for props because you know,

491
00:24:27,599 --> 00:24:30,640
some of these idiot players taking money, you know they're

492
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,640
they're sportsbooks were threatening to not have props anymore. But

493
00:24:34,759 --> 00:24:39,000
the reason why they will always have props because they

494
00:24:39,039 --> 00:24:42,079
always win. They always win. This is sportsbook I bet with.

495
00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:45,359
Not gonna say who I try to bet pros.

496
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:45,799
Speaker 1: This is it.

497
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,839
Speaker 4: It actually should be illegal what they do. But good

498
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,119
luck finding a gaming agent that knows what eleven to

499
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,279
ten is. Never mind what I what I want to

500
00:24:54,319 --> 00:24:59,799
show them. So andy, I'm allowed to bet over, I'm

501
00:24:59,839 --> 00:25:03,400
a a lot to bet two grand and under on

502
00:25:03,599 --> 00:25:06,319
I'm a lot to bet one grand. That's insane. But

503
00:25:07,319 --> 00:25:10,680
my max bet for the overs two thousands, and my

504
00:25:10,799 --> 00:25:14,759
max bet for the under is one thousand. So just

505
00:25:14,759 --> 00:25:17,480
think about just think. And it's not just a random

506
00:25:17,519 --> 00:25:20,799
game or two or a random week or two. This

507
00:25:20,839 --> 00:25:24,599
has been since the beginning of NFL season. It's actually crazy.

508
00:25:24,599 --> 00:25:26,440
I don't even question it because, to be honest with you,

509
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,839
to be able to get down a dime is a

510
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,400
lot of money on a prop or two dimes. So

511
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,240
I'm lucky. I have, you know, four or five spots

512
00:25:34,279 --> 00:25:37,759
in town here I can cumulatively get down a decent bet,

513
00:25:37,839 --> 00:25:40,279
you know, three four thousand if I want something on

514
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:42,960
a prop, which I try to bet the most I can.

515
00:25:43,559 --> 00:25:46,000
But luckily for the wager talk guys, I give them

516
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,680
to them first. I don't front run. It doesn't look

517
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,359
like to me that they're moving to my Vegas market,

518
00:25:51,599 --> 00:25:55,559
so I have no problem giving them out first. You know,

519
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,599
even if they did move a little bit, it's a

520
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:00,640
win for me because I know I'm gonna, you know,

521
00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:04,119
keep their loyalty and keep their business. It's almost like

522
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,519
winning the prop betting the prop you follow.

523
00:26:06,759 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: So well, let's talk about a prop. Let's go to

524
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,799
the NBA. I mean there's a million. This is what

525
00:26:11,799 --> 00:26:13,480
we love about props. There's a million of them, so

526
00:26:13,519 --> 00:26:16,240
you can find like just a ton of them. What's

527
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:17,599
one prop that you're on for tonight.

528
00:26:17,839 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna give you guys an NBA prop. Darius

529
00:26:20,519 --> 00:26:23,599
Garland assist over six and a half plus oh five.

530
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,200
I also am looking at the market over five and

531
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,519
a half minus one fifty five. I hate laying that

532
00:26:29,599 --> 00:26:32,000
much juice, but it's you know that you only have

533
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,279
so many assists. I have no problem when you're doing it.

534
00:26:34,839 --> 00:26:37,279
So over we're gonna over six and a half plus

535
00:26:37,279 --> 00:26:39,599
oh five, over five and a half minus fifty five.

536
00:26:39,599 --> 00:26:42,200
I'm looking at two different sports books. He's back to

537
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,319
being one hundred percent. Should get his full minutes tonight

538
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,359
versus the heat, huge total two forty seven and a half.

539
00:26:48,559 --> 00:26:52,839
My god, so plenty assist opportunities by that, you know,

540
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,640
the total being so high, fast paced game, the heat

541
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,319
they should double on drives and the hoop forcing Marlin

542
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,480
to pass the ball some and uh, you know, passing

543
00:27:03,519 --> 00:27:06,759
out to the open three point guys. So big, big, big,

544
00:27:06,839 --> 00:27:10,480
high scoring game here tonight. Uh, let's go over Darius

545
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,440
Carland six and a half assists tonight in the game.

546
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:14,720
There's a freebie for everyone.

547
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was. He struggled in his first game back,

548
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,039
but it looks it looked great now in his last

549
00:27:20,079 --> 00:27:22,200
game that Cavs team is back. I'll be breaking down that.

550
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,519
I actually be breaking down that game a little bit later.

551
00:27:24,799 --> 00:27:26,559
The total is insane.

552
00:27:26,599 --> 00:27:29,319
Speaker 2: What to forty seven and a half time unbelievable?

553
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 1: Makes sense?

554
00:27:32,039 --> 00:27:34,319
Speaker 4: Seven and a half, let's just do it's coincidence.

555
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:39,759
Speaker 1: So yeah, I've gotten this question quite a bit about

556
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:44,200
parlaying props. I never parlay props do you do you

557
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:45,400
only single your props?

558
00:27:45,799 --> 00:27:49,279
Speaker 4: Listen, it's a great question, and I can't believe it

559
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:53,200
took this long in my career even for someone to

560
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,720
ask that. Whoever asked that, thank you very much for

561
00:27:56,839 --> 00:28:00,640
asking that question. Yes, of course I would like the

562
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:07,400
parlay props. Unfortunately, if you parlay props, you're probably gonna

563
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,079
be limited or even thrown out. And I say it's

564
00:28:10,079 --> 00:28:13,799
thrown out, limited to ten bucks, because we're already gonna

565
00:28:13,799 --> 00:28:18,079
win Betton props. Lifetime bookmakers are already know. They're scared

566
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,920
to that the props. Even the local guys now who

567
00:28:21,079 --> 00:28:25,079
use the PPHS, the PPH sites in far off places.

568
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,279
They the guys in there, you know, they're making three

569
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,119
four dollars an hour when them away is three bucks

570
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,000
an hour in the place, you know, certain places, these

571
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,720
guys all they see is someone betting props. Now their

572
00:28:34,839 --> 00:28:37,720
job is to alert the book maker, the person who's

573
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,559
actually booking those bets. Hey, this guy's betting props. So

574
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:45,720
now they see parlays of props and their accumulators. So

575
00:28:46,119 --> 00:28:48,920
someone that was would parlay you know, three or four

576
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,839
props together, they would see, you know, you're you're making

577
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,640
big scores, they're probably gonna limit it, throw you out.

578
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,559
Listen their advantage bets, of course I don't. I think

579
00:28:59,599 --> 00:29:02,240
parlay are the biggest sucker bet, not only me. They're

580
00:29:02,279 --> 00:29:06,160
giant sucker bets. However, when you're betting advantage things, they're not.

581
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,279
So if I'm betting overnight basketball, Let's say I'm betting

582
00:29:09,319 --> 00:29:12,880
three games, all three is minus three. The next day,

583
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:14,640
I know they're gonna be minus four, minus four and

584
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,440
a half and five. I have an edge on that parlay.

585
00:29:17,519 --> 00:29:21,039
So of course, by me betting that, I have an

586
00:29:21,079 --> 00:29:23,759
edge on that parlay. But I don't recommend anyone to

587
00:29:23,799 --> 00:29:26,839
do that because it's only gonna get bring heat on

588
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,519
your accounts, or better yet, it's gonna make you bet

589
00:29:29,559 --> 00:29:32,599
parlays on other things, which is a loser. No way.

590
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,720
So parlays. I know everyone loves to do it. I

591
00:29:36,759 --> 00:29:41,480
have my doctors, my dentists, my people around me, friends, guys.

592
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,799
I'm on shows, but I do Nationwide show on Fox.

593
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,960
My co host played in the NFL eight years. He's

594
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,599
a great guy. Loves to bet the parlays. Though I

595
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,440
almost wave the white towel. I said, listen, go ahead,

596
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:54,839
you want to bet a parlay. If you've bet one

597
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,319
hundred dollars per game is at your number, I have

598
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,240
no problem on you betting a five dollars five teamer.

599
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,000
I don't do it, but they're gonna do it anyway,

600
00:30:03,039 --> 00:30:04,839
so I try to tell them to do it percentage

601
00:30:04,839 --> 00:30:08,759
of bankroll. So I would just go straight on your

602
00:30:08,799 --> 00:30:12,160
on your props. If you start parlaying props, even at

603
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:16,240
the legal licensed sports books, you will definitely be limited.

604
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,480
That's what I got myself in trouble for, you know,

605
00:30:19,559 --> 00:30:21,319
two years ago, parlay and props.

606
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 5: But if you have a guy, if you have a

607
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,519
dummy account, what I mean is you have account that

608
00:30:25,519 --> 00:30:30,519
you're betting five, six, seven, eight, ten NFL straight plays

609
00:30:30,559 --> 00:30:33,880
on a Sunday, They're gonna see that and they're gonna say, Wow,

610
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:34,880
this guy's losing.

611
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,319
Speaker 4: Anyway on NFL. He bet the NFL. Yeah, give him

612
00:30:37,359 --> 00:30:42,000
the parlay props. So I don't recommend it, though it's

613
00:30:42,039 --> 00:30:44,359
a great question. I'm surprised no one ever asked me.

614
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't gotten it asked. And this is like

615
00:30:48,839 --> 00:30:51,359
the third time in the last couple of weeks that

616
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,480
I've been asked about it. So and I justin brings

617
00:30:54,559 --> 00:30:56,480
up a good point. Yeah, I'm talking about the main

618
00:30:56,519 --> 00:30:59,720
sports like NBA, NHL, MLB, NFL. We do a lot

619
00:30:59,759 --> 00:31:03,079
of more obscure props. So you'll you'll see tennis parlays

620
00:31:03,119 --> 00:31:04,559
and you know, different things like that.

621
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 4: So I don't know those Andy, those NFL m listen,

622
00:31:08,039 --> 00:31:10,839
perhaps are for suckers. Sixty to seventy percent of these

623
00:31:10,839 --> 00:31:14,640
sportsbooks in their earnings report their public companies show where

624
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,960
they make their money. That's where they're making their money.

625
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,839
It's should they show that every quarter every year. You know,

626
00:31:21,119 --> 00:31:24,519
a lot of these things. Uh, you know, the public

627
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:29,079
just loves doing Giohanny said something before, oh boy teasing

628
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:34,680
college football totals. Listen, these are all losing things long term.

629
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,920
Short term you can win, have some fun with it,

630
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:41,240
I guess, but you know, it's just I just know

631
00:31:41,279 --> 00:31:44,000
what happens in the end. I've worked with the sharpest

632
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,920
syndicate groups in the in the in the world, like

633
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:50,079
Johnny has I don't even talk to Johnny. I've talked

634
00:31:50,119 --> 00:31:51,960
to him once in my life. I don't really talk

635
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,680
to Johnny so and nothing against it. We just haven't

636
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,480
got together yet. He's right here in Vegas to I'm

637
00:31:56,519 --> 00:31:59,759
surprised we have n't, but uh yeah, we've seen what

638
00:31:59,759 --> 00:32:03,480
has happens. You know, We've had guys that are the

639
00:32:03,519 --> 00:32:07,839
sharpest mathematical analytical guys in the world, model based driven guys,

640
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,519
and they've tried it. They've tried beating teasers on totals

641
00:32:11,759 --> 00:32:16,680
in the NFL. They've tried beating teasers in college football. No,

642
00:32:17,039 --> 00:32:20,279
absolutely not. Don't do it. Don't do it. You're it

643
00:32:20,319 --> 00:32:23,640
looks easy, I understand, and especially when you win, it

644
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,079
looks easy. But look at your results what it would

645
00:32:26,119 --> 00:32:28,599
have been without the extra six or seven points in

646
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,519
teasing totals. You probably would have won that too. But

647
00:32:31,599 --> 00:32:34,119
now you're laying thirteen to ten, fourteen to ten, fifteen

648
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,480
to ten in town here there is sixteen to ten.

649
00:32:37,559 --> 00:32:39,759
You have to lay a dollars sixty to win one

650
00:32:39,839 --> 00:32:42,440
hundred on a seven point teaser at a couple shops.

651
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,440
Impossible to beat, even if you're betting the long teasers

652
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,519
around the key numbers in the NFL. Impossible to beat.

653
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 1: You got any thoughts on Monday night football tonight?

654
00:32:54,279 --> 00:32:56,799
Speaker 4: Listen, I have a play up there at wager Talk.

655
00:32:57,799 --> 00:33:01,039
You know, you look at these this game, I'm trying

656
00:33:01,079 --> 00:33:03,000
to find someone else on the other side. I'm gonna

657
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,200
find someone on Green Bay sooner or later. I know

658
00:33:05,279 --> 00:33:08,200
one thing. As of right now, the sportsbooks are on

659
00:33:08,599 --> 00:33:10,960
Green Bay. But now that they're bringing it down to

660
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,039
pick them, they're gonna get some two way action. They

661
00:33:13,079 --> 00:33:15,200
just don't wanted to land on one or two. And

662
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:19,200
you know, I interview the head of BETMGM every Sunday

663
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,039
on my Fox show. He's the head of risk for

664
00:33:21,079 --> 00:33:24,200
the entire company. He gave me some eighty five and

665
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:29,599
ninety percent. Ninety percent of the public had Buffalo yesterday.

666
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,480
This was an hour before the game. They're like games

667
00:33:32,519 --> 00:33:35,160
that you know, I always say God protects the book maker.

668
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,279
Ninety percent of people have Buffalo. They lost out right,

669
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,319
eighty percent had they lost this game Detroit. Eighty percent

670
00:33:42,359 --> 00:33:45,799
had Detroit. So he lost that game. Big Michigan presence

671
00:33:45,799 --> 00:33:48,240
though for BETMGM, and he had a seventy five percent.

672
00:33:48,279 --> 00:33:49,480
I just can't think what it was. There was a

673
00:33:49,519 --> 00:33:52,279
third game there was a seventy five percent. So I like,

674
00:33:52,799 --> 00:33:56,240
you know, I don't like all these places that you splits.

675
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,880
Let's say sixty percent of the money's on this eighty percent.

676
00:34:00,279 --> 00:34:02,319
I don't want to know in print. I don't want

677
00:34:02,319 --> 00:34:03,960
to know it's not up to date. I don't want

678
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,279
to know. When I talk to a head of risk,

679
00:34:06,559 --> 00:34:09,519
which I do every single Sunday morning, an hour and

680
00:34:09,559 --> 00:34:13,159
a half before the games, I know that what he's

681
00:34:13,199 --> 00:34:17,400
saying is factual and law. Whenever he says something's eighty percent,

682
00:34:17,559 --> 00:34:21,000
i'll tell you know. In the beginning of the season though,

683
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,840
they got whacked because Detroit covered a couple of times,

684
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:27,440
like the week two and three. But the eighty eighty

685
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,199
five percent, oh my god, it's it's just it's just money.

686
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,039
It's just money betting against you know, betting against the public.

687
00:34:34,079 --> 00:34:36,199
And I don't say always bet against the public, but

688
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,599
right now the public is all over the Eagles here.

689
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:44,119
But however, now that Green Bays the lines come down

690
00:34:44,159 --> 00:34:46,719
to pick them, that's gonna probably even up there. So

691
00:34:48,039 --> 00:34:51,360
and just because it's on you know, TV, guys, you

692
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:55,559
don't have to bet the side. There's props. There's some

693
00:34:55,599 --> 00:34:59,000
other things I wouldn't recommend live wagering. Live wagering is

694
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,400
the crack cocaine again, ambling at double the juice. So

695
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,159
just make sure you know that you're gonna bet live.

696
00:35:04,519 --> 00:35:06,960
You're gonna bet double the juice and you're going to

697
00:35:07,039 --> 00:35:11,880
be against That's right, I said it. Cheating sports books,

698
00:35:12,119 --> 00:35:15,920
that's right, because you're under a sixty second delay where

699
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,880
they can deny your bet. When it's put in a queue,

700
00:35:19,559 --> 00:35:22,559
they can deny the winners and take the losers. I'm

701
00:35:22,599 --> 00:35:26,000
not saying which ones, but it goes on. It happened

702
00:35:26,039 --> 00:35:28,000
out here in Vegas. They threw the sports book out

703
00:35:28,039 --> 00:35:30,239
of town. Took them a couple of years and about

704
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:33,840
forty millions in fines, but they threw cann Gaming out

705
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,599
of town. One of the reasons they were cheating on

706
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:41,239
live wagering with the delay with I know the kid

707
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,760
that was back there, he actually said it. You know,

708
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,719
he didn't know. He thought his job was to deny.

709
00:35:47,159 --> 00:35:49,119
You know, they have first in goal, the team scores

710
00:35:49,519 --> 00:35:53,320
that someone's betting the team that scores. He denies the wager.

711
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,280
Someone bet the other team, He takes the wager. That's cheating.

712
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,159
But how can gaming police that. I'm telling you that's

713
00:36:00,159 --> 00:36:02,360
how hard it is for gaming to police that. They'd

714
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,800
have to see firsthand and understand the dynamics and the

715
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,280
moving parts of the game to understand what the bookmakers

716
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,119
are doing. Now again, I'm not saying all the bookmakers

717
00:36:14,159 --> 00:36:16,559
are doing and I'm not saying ninety percent are doing it,

718
00:36:17,079 --> 00:36:19,400
but you can guarantee those books out there that are

719
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:20,320
absolutely cheating.

720
00:36:23,079 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 1: I tried live betting like four or five years ago

721
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:31,639
on NFL. Oh my lord, that is a great way

722
00:36:31,679 --> 00:36:36,280
to nukebank roll. I don't have the secret sauce. I

723
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,400
could live bet UFC till the cows come home.

724
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 3: Me.

725
00:36:39,119 --> 00:36:42,519
Speaker 1: Trying to bet NFL was an unmitigated disaster. I haven't done.

726
00:36:42,679 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 4: You're on a sixty second delay and you're you're at

727
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,719
the mercy of double the juice, so you're paying a

728
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:49,800
lot more than pre flop juice.

729
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, that's that's tough. Be careful with live betting,

730
00:36:53,559 --> 00:36:55,480
so we talk about it all the time. All right, Bill,

731
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:56,960
what do you have up for everyone at wager Talk?

732
00:36:57,199 --> 00:37:00,159
Speaker 4: Hey, my packages are up there. I recommend getting as

733
00:37:00,199 --> 00:37:04,679
the week package. You know, I'm looking at the prices

734
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,960
NBA twenty one and nine run. Yeah, they keep track

735
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:10,960
of as though. I know we were one fifty eight

736
00:37:11,039 --> 00:37:14,920
one twelve plus thirty seven point six units last NBA season.

737
00:37:15,159 --> 00:37:17,159
The props, it's props. I don't bet side of totals,

738
00:37:17,199 --> 00:37:21,519
it's props. So we have them loaded today. And like

739
00:37:21,599 --> 00:37:23,679
I said, you want to get in more than just

740
00:37:23,679 --> 00:37:25,679
a daily package, where like Andy, you said the other

741
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:27,719
day that you had a zero to three, but yet

742
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,840
for the week you're balanced out or winning. You have

743
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,599
to go long term here. So I would recommend anyone

744
00:37:33,679 --> 00:37:36,119
to go for at least a week, a week package,

745
00:37:36,119 --> 00:37:38,320
a month package to lock me up through the super Bowl.

746
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,039
I say it all the time, You're gonna get all

747
00:37:40,079 --> 00:37:43,239
these props, all these super Bowl props and everything involved.

748
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:47,119
And you know, listen, I hate to be so arrogant,

749
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,760
but I'm not gonna lose on props, props. I'm gonna

750
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:51,480
I'm gonna kill. It's the reason why it gets front

751
00:37:51,519 --> 00:37:52,960
of so many sportsbooks.

752
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: Love it, Bill, thank you very much, so happy, Thank you,

753
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,880
prop better, Thank you Bill crack Man. Everybody, let's do

754
00:38:00,519 --> 00:38:04,519
Let's let's go to where the books won, where the

755
00:38:04,559 --> 00:38:07,440
public one. We got some prop winners and losers. We

756
00:38:07,519 --> 00:38:10,519
normally do overreaction, but we're in week ten. We're done

757
00:38:10,559 --> 00:38:13,199
with We're done with the overreaction. So I'm changing this

758
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:18,159
to questions. And Steve merrill is on deck. So, Steve,

759
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,199
if you have answers to these questions that we're gonna

760
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:24,280
go over. The first question was that the jetsiest thing ever.

761
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,800
We talked about this on Friday. The Jets trade their

762
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:32,000
defense acquired draft picks and then promptly score two special

763
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,000
team touchdowns to win in worse than their draft position.

764
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:37,480
To me, it was one of the Jetsiest things I've

765
00:38:37,519 --> 00:38:42,039
ever seen. Are we not talking enough about Jonathan Taylor season?

766
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:46,599
Through ten games, he has one nine rushing yards and

767
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,920
fifteen tds and he's added thirty receptions in two hundred

768
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,119
and sixty yards to tds. People are talking about it,

769
00:38:53,159 --> 00:38:55,320
but I'm just worrying for not talking enough about it.

770
00:38:56,599 --> 00:39:00,199
What do we make of the Bills? So they eat

771
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,400
the Chiefs and they get boat raced by the Dolphins.

772
00:39:02,519 --> 00:39:05,000
I cannot figure out the Bills. I will not have

773
00:39:05,039 --> 00:39:07,800
a bet on a Buffalo bill player or anything involved

774
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:09,880
the Buffalo Bills for the rest of the season. I

775
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,360
cannot figure them out. Here's an interesting one put in

776
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,960
the chat or the comment section about this one. This

777
00:39:15,079 --> 00:39:17,079
is this is this is my favorite one. Are the

778
00:39:17,119 --> 00:39:22,199
Seahawks rams the best one to two combo in any division?

779
00:39:22,519 --> 00:39:28,000
Your Your competition for that is Pat's Bills, Steelers, Ravens,

780
00:39:28,519 --> 00:39:33,159
Broncos Chargers, and Packers Lions. That Packers Lions could be there,

781
00:39:33,159 --> 00:39:36,800
but right now Seahawks Rams. It may be the best

782
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,440
one two combination in any division. So let me know

783
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,400
what you think of those questions. Let's go to where

784
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:46,960
the books one? Where the public one, Browns and Jets

785
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,599
under thirty seven big winner for the book, I mean Buffalo,

786
00:39:49,679 --> 00:39:52,639
I mean the books probably made how much how much

787
00:39:52,639 --> 00:39:55,280
the buff did they make on Buffalo yesterday? And then

788
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,159
the Jacks Texans under looked like it was going to

789
00:39:58,199 --> 00:40:01,000
be a sure thing until it was where the public won.

790
00:40:01,079 --> 00:40:04,840
Ravens were big, giants, Bears under was big, Lions minus

791
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:08,039
to players big and Rams minus the point was minus

792
00:40:08,039 --> 00:40:10,719
points were big winners for the public. But that Buffalo one,

793
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:15,440
I'm the teasers, the money line parlays, the survivor just

794
00:40:15,559 --> 00:40:21,920
absolute bloodbath. Let's go to props and fantasy football winners losers.

795
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,440
Jonathan Taylor, of course, continued to be a winner. Drake

796
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,639
London has been awesome the last couple of weeks. Duvon

797
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,440
A Chain had a huge, huge game if you went

798
00:40:30,519 --> 00:40:33,320
against him in Fantasy. I feel bad for you. Jalen

799
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:37,440
Naylor starting to come alive. Here for the Vikings, and

800
00:40:37,519 --> 00:40:39,840
we'll get to the other two wide receivers and the losers.

801
00:40:40,599 --> 00:40:44,400
Jerry Judy had a really good game. He's been non existent,

802
00:40:44,519 --> 00:40:47,079
but he's kind of come alive and Traveon Henderson, this

803
00:40:47,159 --> 00:40:51,280
guy was like the absolute epitome of the Fantasy and

804
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,440
Props loser and now he's just like the ultimate winner.

805
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:56,880
It looks great. Mac Hollins, uh with those injuries, he

806
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,280
has the big game. Chris Olave showed a pulse, he

807
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,519
looked good. David Mills and Nico Collins put up big.

808
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,760
Trey McBride continues to be a little bit underrated. I'm

809
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:08,280
not sure why I didn't play his overs with Jacoby

810
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:12,360
Brissett at quarterback. Kicking myself for that one. Stafford, Kyron Williams,

811
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,920
Devontae and Puka all become they're just they're wagons man.

812
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,880
And then Mac Jones, Kittle Jennings were big winners and

813
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:22,440
Jamier Gibbs had the huge game. Fantasy losers. Kyle Manongai,

814
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:24,679
what a bear's doing?

815
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 4: This?

816
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 1: Sky like goes for one hundred and seventy six yards

817
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:28,599
and then we barely give him the golf ball, Thank

818
00:41:28,639 --> 00:41:31,960
you very much. James Cook was pretty tough. That was

819
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,239
a rough game. And Jordan Addison, Justin Jefferson. We talked

820
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,599
about Justin Jefferson being a little worried. Now I'm terrified.

821
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:43,360
JJ McCarthy not sure if he's targeting him. They seem

822
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:46,760
to lock him down. There were some incomplete passes that

823
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,159
I wonder if another quarterback would have completed him. But

824
00:41:49,199 --> 00:41:51,840
Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson have fallen off a cliff

825
00:41:52,199 --> 00:41:57,639
since the quarterback change. Justin Fields, I mean, at one

826
00:41:57,679 --> 00:42:00,440
point he had negative five passing yard and they had

827
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:04,079
fourteen points. I don't know how that's possible. Tes Johnson

828
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,800
could be a big winner if this Chris Godwin injury,

829
00:42:07,079 --> 00:42:09,079
if he doesn't come back. Tes Johnson had a couple

830
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,480
of touchdowns and then the Steelers. My god, I was

831
00:42:12,559 --> 00:42:16,400
pathetic last night, absolutely awful. If he had any Steelers

832
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:20,199
in fantasy, you are upset this morning, So all right,

833
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:24,920
let's bring in Steve Merrill. Steve, you got a lot,

834
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,199
but lots to do on this show. We gave you

835
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:32,519
a plethora of games. Was that the jetsiest thing ever? Yesterday.

836
00:42:33,519 --> 00:42:36,079
Speaker 6: Well you were a little early still in early November.

837
00:42:36,119 --> 00:42:38,000
But I think one of the best betting angles in

838
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:39,880
the NFL in December is to just play on those

839
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,559
nothing teams that have absolutely nothing to play for against

840
00:42:42,599 --> 00:42:44,280
teams that have something to play for, and he just

841
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,119
get you get a couple points of line value, first

842
00:42:46,159 --> 00:42:48,280
of all. And that's why fad in the public works

843
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:51,760
long term, is because the lines are inflated, and we

844
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,000
see that all the time. It was the Houston Texans

845
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,280
a couple of years ago. Did they won? I get

846
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:58,599
they would have gonna have the number one pick.

847
00:42:58,639 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 4: They won.

848
00:42:59,039 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 6: I think the final week Carolina lost and they get

849
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:03,639
Bryce Young. The Texans gets stroud. They make the playoffs

850
00:43:03,679 --> 00:43:06,519
like a year later. So teams continue to play hard.

851
00:43:06,559 --> 00:43:08,719
There's maybe one team that kind of quits on the season,

852
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,639
by the way, that might be not my Washington Commanders.

853
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:14,079
Our season win total is looking pretty good, Andy Lang,

854
00:43:14,119 --> 00:43:15,239
What are they had? Eight losses?

855
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 4: Now?

856
00:43:16,119 --> 00:43:18,039
Speaker 6: No, seven losses. I need them to get to eight

857
00:43:18,079 --> 00:43:19,960
losses to cash. I think we're in pretty good shape.

858
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:20,519
What do you say?

859
00:43:21,119 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 1: You're in great shape, my friend. You never want to

860
00:43:24,039 --> 00:43:26,280
count the money before the bet cash is But I'm

861
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:27,159
pretty sure you can.

862
00:43:27,599 --> 00:43:29,639
Speaker 6: It's so crazy. We talked about it last week. It's

863
00:43:29,639 --> 00:43:32,159
like part of that handicap is that Daniels might get hurt.

864
00:43:32,159 --> 00:43:33,719
I mean, I liked it even if you played healthy,

865
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:35,800
because I thought they were vastly overrated and they made

866
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,280
a huge jump. But then that was just icing on

867
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:39,239
the kike, and I don't want to say I want

868
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:40,719
to see him get hurt. I like Jaden Daniels, I

869
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:44,000
think the hell of a player. But that was somewhat predictable.

870
00:43:44,079 --> 00:43:46,000
So yeah, that's why these season wins, you know, and

871
00:43:46,079 --> 00:43:48,519
like Crackshid props can be great. Love what he said

872
00:43:48,559 --> 00:43:50,639
about the end game betting. I've never liked it as well.

873
00:43:50,639 --> 00:43:52,360
I've never messed with it. The main reason for me

874
00:43:52,559 --> 00:43:55,119
is because of the delay and the thirty cent lines.

875
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,840
I had not heard that story about voiding winning bets.

876
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:02,320
That's awful. Does not surprise me. And also with the teasers,

877
00:44:02,599 --> 00:44:05,639
we don't release them anymore because they've been priced out.

878
00:44:05,679 --> 00:44:08,559
When I started thirty years ago in the late nineties,

879
00:44:08,599 --> 00:44:12,719
you could get even money six point teasers, pretty easy pickings,

880
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,559
and even at minus won ten. For decades it was

881
00:44:14,599 --> 00:44:16,840
a good deal. But now minus one thirty, minus one forty,

882
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:20,800
minus one fifty. The average better does not respect juice.

883
00:44:21,119 --> 00:44:22,760
I used to love the off short days where you

884
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:24,880
get minus one oh five on both sides minus one

885
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,960
oh three. And what's crazy is nobody cares about that

886
00:44:28,039 --> 00:44:31,639
and they'll lay thirty cent lines. And sports betting's really

887
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,199
changed now because of all this legalization.

888
00:44:34,519 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 1: Well, let's get into a couple of games we're gonna start.

889
00:44:37,519 --> 00:44:39,559
Let's start with a big one money night football, eager

890
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:43,800
Eagles versus Packers. It's going to be cold, but doesn't

891
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,519
look like there's precipitation or too much win. So what's

892
00:44:46,559 --> 00:44:49,119
your breakdown on Eagles Packers months or monster game in

893
00:44:49,119 --> 00:44:49,639
the NFC.

894
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, so Crack just talked about what the bookmaker said,

895
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,440
we're really public. On Sunday, I had the same information

896
00:44:54,519 --> 00:44:56,000
I told you I faded the public video of the

897
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,920
Lions were the most public play this week, but I

898
00:44:57,960 --> 00:44:59,559
did not want to fade them coming off a loss

899
00:44:59,559 --> 00:45:03,519
against my Washington Commanders, who at a tailspin Buffalo Bills

900
00:45:03,519 --> 00:45:05,440
were very public as well. We saw how that turned

901
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,960
out some of those other games. Seattle cashed yesterday as

902
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:10,760
a public side, but both Carolina and what's.

903
00:45:10,639 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 4: The other one.

904
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 6: I got it right here. The Colts culture six six

905
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,119
and a half. They went by six in overtime, so

906
00:45:15,119 --> 00:45:17,119
that once again that inflated line because of the public

907
00:45:17,159 --> 00:45:19,760
side made the difference. In the Germany game fade, the

908
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:22,039
public was nine and three the last two weeks, three

909
00:45:22,039 --> 00:45:24,880
and two yesterday, so now twelve and five, and we

910
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:28,000
got one more public play remaining this week. And this

911
00:45:28,079 --> 00:45:29,800
is the public dog of the week, and that's ding

912
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,239
Ding red flag alert. Philadelphia Eagles. Now they're not much

913
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,239
of a public dog about plus one to plus two

914
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,000
all week. This game might very well go off at

915
00:45:37,039 --> 00:45:39,119
pick them, but they are still a public dog, and

916
00:45:39,159 --> 00:45:41,559
it's very one sided. And I don't mind back in

917
00:45:41,599 --> 00:45:43,400
the Green Bay Packers here. I still think they're one

918
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:45,320
of the best teams in the NFL. And had some

919
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:47,480
people comment in my free play videos and don't forget

920
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,599
click subscribe cook that bell for instance, alerts I do

921
00:45:49,679 --> 00:45:51,480
all the Sunday Night Monday Night games. Gave you the

922
00:45:51,559 --> 00:45:53,760
Chargers last night for free in my Sunday Night video.

923
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,000
And by the way, that was a best bet for

924
00:45:56,119 --> 00:45:58,599
my clients. Sometimes these TV games make the best bet.

925
00:45:58,639 --> 00:46:01,079
Card three and oh sweep on Sunday in the NFL

926
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:03,079
gave you a free play video on this one as

927
00:46:03,119 --> 00:46:05,280
well for Monday Night Football. Also talked about it in

928
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,960
my Fade the Public video. And one thing I like

929
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,039
about fading public dogs, and one of the reasons it's

930
00:46:10,079 --> 00:46:12,320
sixty seven percent this season on the blind and it's

931
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,039
worked for decades, is because you get a quality team.

932
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,199
Like I wasn't looking to fade the public with the

933
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:20,480
Commanders last yesterday, or in the Seattle game, or even

934
00:46:20,519 --> 00:46:22,880
really with the Carolina game you were taking the Saints.

935
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:25,920
I don't like ugly teams, but we're getting a quality

936
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,719
team here in Green Bay. And yes they've lost twice

937
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:30,440
this year. Somebody commented in one of the videos, are

938
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:31,880
they really the best team in the league? If you

939
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,119
lose to Carolina and Cleveland? Well, look at the situational

940
00:46:35,199 --> 00:46:36,880
set up in those two games. First of all, we

941
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,199
had a strong client best bet on the Browns back

942
00:46:39,199 --> 00:46:41,920
in Week three. That also made the Fade the Public video,

943
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,880
as green Bay was a heavy public side. Green Bay

944
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:46,800
was coming off the big win against the Detroit Lions

945
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,280
to open the season, huge divisional win, and then that

946
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:52,159
Thursday night home game against the Commanders, who everyone thought

947
00:46:52,199 --> 00:46:53,480
were good at the time except for me.

948
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:54,079
Speaker 4: I knew better.

949
00:46:54,559 --> 00:46:56,760
Speaker 6: And then they had the sandwich spot because the following

950
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,159
week after Cleveland, they had the Sunday night game of Dallas.

951
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:01,719
Actually led most of that Cleveland game, but they came

952
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,639
up flat only scored ten points, and now looky here

953
00:47:05,039 --> 00:47:07,599
flat spot. Last week against Carolina. They had the Sunday

954
00:47:07,679 --> 00:47:09,719
night come from behind win against Pittsburgh on the road

955
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,559
against Aaron Rodgers, the look ahead to this Monday night

956
00:47:12,559 --> 00:47:14,920
game against the Eagles, the Super Bowl champs, and they

957
00:47:15,039 --> 00:47:17,280
laid another egg last week at home as a two

958
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:20,480
touchdown favorite. They only scored thirteen points against Carolina. So

959
00:47:20,519 --> 00:47:23,159
it's really been a bad offensive shown in those two losses.

960
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,000
There are other six games this season. They have scored

961
00:47:26,039 --> 00:47:28,920
twenty seven points or more in all six games, and

962
00:47:29,159 --> 00:47:31,239
I think the Eagles defense is down to nots this year.

963
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:33,760
Fade the public if you want, but also think the

964
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:36,519
Packer team total over twenty three and a half makes

965
00:47:36,519 --> 00:47:39,440
a lot of sense tonight. This Eagle defense is weaker

966
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:42,199
than last season. And let's just do the basic math here.

967
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:45,639
The Eagles on the season are giving up over twenty

968
00:47:45,679 --> 00:47:48,800
three points a game. The Packers' offense is averageon was

969
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,519
twenty six points a game, and they've scored, as I said,

970
00:47:51,519 --> 00:47:53,519
twenty seven or more in all six games that they

971
00:47:53,519 --> 00:47:56,320
haven't lost this season. I lay Green Bay team total

972
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:58,599
over twenty three and a half for Monday Night Football

973
00:47:58,639 --> 00:47:59,320
to not on Monday.

974
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 1: All right, Steve, we got breaking news. If one of

975
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:07,519
the questions coming out of Week ten was will will

976
00:48:07,559 --> 00:48:12,519
Brian Dayball be fired? The answer is yes. Now, question, Steve,

977
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,519
do you think he got fired because of the team's

978
00:48:15,559 --> 00:48:18,079
performance and blowing leads in the fourth quarter? Do you

979
00:48:18,119 --> 00:48:22,400
think he got fired because they kept running Jackson Dart

980
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:25,000
into the teeth of the defense and they finally got

981
00:48:25,079 --> 00:48:25,519
him hurt.

982
00:48:26,039 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 4: Yeah?

983
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:28,119
Speaker 1: If I was an owner, I'd be a lot more

984
00:48:28,119 --> 00:48:28,760
mad about that.

985
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,519
Speaker 6: I think he got fired for routinely went into the

986
00:48:32,519 --> 00:48:35,239
concussion tent. I thought that was the first red flags.

987
00:48:36,199 --> 00:48:37,239
This guy was full energy.

988
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:37,599
Speaker 4: Man.

989
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,559
Speaker 6: I'm a little surprised he got a few weeks ago

990
00:48:40,559 --> 00:48:42,320
when they especially when they beat the Eagles on Thursday

991
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,360
Night Football. Would never thought he'd be fired by like

992
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:45,960
the second week of November. It looked like they were

993
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,000
trending in the right direction. I agree with you on

994
00:48:48,039 --> 00:48:50,239
the Jackson Dart situation. But the other thing is I

995
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:52,440
think they want to maybe get someone in there, an

996
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:55,960
offensive minded, young, like OC quarterback type guy. Because of

997
00:48:56,039 --> 00:48:58,920
Jackson Dart, he does appear to maybe be the real deal.

998
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:01,440
He had a great preseason and he seems like a

999
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,719
pretty sharp kid as well. So my guess is, b

1000
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:05,719
they're going to bring in an offensive minded head coach

1001
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:06,920
here at some point in the future.

1002
00:49:08,079 --> 00:49:09,880
Speaker 1: Just how about a minded head coach.

1003
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,360
Speaker 6: I don't disagree that guy's full energy and I respect

1004
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:15,840
full energy and you know that. But he was like

1005
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:17,880
getting kicked out of the concussionton in that Eagle game.

1006
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:18,840
That was pretty comical.

1007
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, both both stars are out now, I mean, both

1008
00:49:24,519 --> 00:49:26,280
these guys are getting hurt. Was about as predictable as

1009
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:29,199
it gets. But come on, Jackson Dart, slide run out

1010
00:49:29,199 --> 00:49:30,199
of bounds, don't run.

1011
00:49:30,039 --> 00:49:30,639
Speaker 4: Into the way.

1012
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 6: But once again, going back to the Jayden Daniels situation, right,

1013
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:34,880
that's why that was a predictable injury. And we talked

1014
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:36,679
about it last week. You got a guy that's skinnier

1015
00:49:36,679 --> 00:49:38,880
than you and me running the ball every other play,

1016
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:40,639
it's not gonna end. Well, we saw it with RG

1017
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:44,039
three a decade ago. History doesn't always repeat, but it rhymes.

1018
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:45,360
It rhymes.

1019
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:49,719
Speaker 1: Let's move to college basketball at Mississippi State versus Iowa State.

1020
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:52,639
I do not follow those teams. Educate me, what do

1021
00:49:52,639 --> 00:49:54,559
you know about these teams? And what are we doing

1022
00:49:54,599 --> 00:49:56,800
with this five and a half point spread one fifty

1023
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:57,679
and a half total.

1024
00:49:58,320 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1025
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,760
Speaker 6: So I always say it's a top twenty that should

1026
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:02,360
be one of the better squads in the country this year.

1027
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,920
And this is a neutral site, which is important. The

1028
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:09,400
Sanford Pentagon which is in Siuex falls so unusual location,

1029
00:50:09,519 --> 00:50:12,280
a true neutral court for both teams. I mean maybe

1030
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:13,920
I was State travels a little bit, but I don't know,

1031
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:15,440
but I think it's a true neutral court. We see

1032
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:17,320
no movement on the point spread. It opened five and

1033
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,320
a half, it's holding five and a half. We have

1034
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,440
seen some sharp money coming on the under in this one,

1035
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,679
one fifty three down to one fifty one to fifty

1036
00:50:24,679 --> 00:50:26,119
and a half, So a little bit of sharp money

1037
00:50:26,159 --> 00:50:28,320
on the under. I think that makes sense basically being

1038
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,000
the neutral site and maybe the sight lines. And I

1039
00:50:31,039 --> 00:50:34,079
also feel like Iowa State relies more on the three

1040
00:50:34,119 --> 00:50:38,880
point shot than Mississippi State does, so I actually lean

1041
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,119
dog here. I think I would stay probably wins this

1042
00:50:41,159 --> 00:50:43,599
game by a basketer so, but line of looks inflated

1043
00:50:43,639 --> 00:50:45,440
to me. I would make the line around three or four.

1044
00:50:46,159 --> 00:50:50,800
Mississippi State also has a strong three point percentage defense,

1045
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:52,960
and I think they match up well in this game,

1046
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:56,039
so on the neutral court, unusual surroundings, I'd rather the

1047
00:50:56,079 --> 00:50:59,320
Mississippi State squad as an underdog in a pretty close game,

1048
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,199
which I think has a better chance of scoring down

1049
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:03,159
low interior defense. By the way, they have one of

1050
00:51:03,159 --> 00:51:05,360
the top twenty two point defenses in the nation based

1051
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,800
on my ratings, and Iowa State might not be as

1052
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:09,440
strong from three point range as they need to be,

1053
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:10,960
so we've seen some sharp money in the under in

1054
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,159
this one. But I think that also the matchup in

1055
00:51:13,199 --> 00:51:16,760
the situation favors Mississippi State as a live dog plus

1056
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:19,320
five and a half once again neutral court in sue

1057
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:22,639
X Falls. That's at eight o'clock Eastern tonight on Monday.

1058
00:51:22,639 --> 00:51:24,000
And don't forget if you want all my free I'm

1059
00:51:24,039 --> 00:51:26,079
I'm doing a ton of college basketball free play videos

1060
00:51:26,119 --> 00:51:28,199
right now. But if you want the free play videos

1061
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,360
and when they do pop like this one, just click

1062
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,679
subscribe on wager Talk TV and click that bell for

1063
00:51:32,679 --> 00:51:34,480
an instant alert. And I do post a lot of

1064
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:36,960
basketball best bets and bonus free plays on my page,

1065
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:43,559
Steve merrillwager Talk dot com, wt dot buz slash sm.

1066
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:46,760
Speaker 1: All right, we got this is great. Lane Kiff into

1067
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:50,440
the Dolphins. We're already predicting the next coach. Oh great,

1068
00:51:50,559 --> 00:51:52,559
Jeff Fisher, Oh oh my lord.

1069
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:55,159
Speaker 6: Do you think Wayne Kiffin would go back to the NFL.

1070
00:51:55,679 --> 00:51:56,440
I can't imagine.

1071
00:51:56,519 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 4: I don't know.

1072
00:51:57,039 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 6: Anything's possible, but not likely.

1073
00:52:00,079 --> 00:52:02,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say unlikely. I think he kind of

1074
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:05,400
likes where he's at right now. All right, let's go

1075
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:10,039
to the NBA Bucks Mavericks. Mavericks team is kind of interesting.

1076
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,719
I thought the expectations were a little too high for

1077
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,079
this team without Kyrie Irving. I mean, they don't have

1078
00:52:15,119 --> 00:52:17,519
a point guard. They just don't like they're trying to

1079
00:52:17,519 --> 00:52:20,079
have Cooper Flag do this. That's not what he does.

1080
00:52:20,119 --> 00:52:22,199
I think they're I think they're clunky, but I think

1081
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:24,440
they'll get better in this Bucks team. I don't know

1082
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,119
if you've watched Giannis. This guy is on a mission

1083
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:29,719
this year. He's like, he's like kind of that point

1084
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:33,360
where he's unstoppable. It kind of comes and goes, but

1085
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:36,239
he looks absolutely insane right now. How do you break

1086
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:37,519
down this Bucks Mavericks game?

1087
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 6: Yeah, welcome to the NBA. As always, load management, players questionable,

1088
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:43,960
and a lot of uncertainty in this game tonight at

1089
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:47,039
eight forty eastern Milwaukee and Dallas. As of the twelve

1090
00:52:47,039 --> 00:52:50,519
thirty eastern NBA updated injury Report, Bucks have yet to

1091
00:52:50,519 --> 00:52:54,760
submit the Davis injury His listen is questionable. For the Mavericks,

1092
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:58,159
Kyrie Erwin remains out lively doubtful. This has been a

1093
00:52:58,199 --> 00:52:59,960
short handed team all season, that's one of the reads,

1094
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,679
and they're off to a three and seven straight up start.

1095
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,039
But while the Bucks haven't released their injury report, and

1096
00:53:05,039 --> 00:53:07,280
Giannis has been playing incredible this year, this is a

1097
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:10,559
back to back situation as the Bucks last night had

1098
00:53:10,559 --> 00:53:12,760
to play in Houston. I believe he logged around thirty

1099
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:15,360
six minutes I'm sorry a home game against Houston. Now

1100
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:18,440
they travel without rest to Dallas and they're playing, by

1101
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,280
the way, their third game and four nights after beating

1102
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:24,960
the Bulls on Friday, lost at home to Houston. I

1103
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:26,719
haven't seen the injury report yet, but I would not

1104
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:29,119
be shocked if Giannis is on. It are limited at

1105
00:53:29,119 --> 00:53:31,119
some point, so keep an eye on it. The Betty

1106
00:53:31,159 --> 00:53:33,199
markets have gone from bucks two and a half Road

1107
00:53:33,199 --> 00:53:35,400
Favorite down to two at some of the Sharper books,

1108
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:37,679
so I think they're starting to indicate that might be

1109
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:39,280
the case. I'm not going to play the guessing game.

1110
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:42,360
Whether Giannis is in, Anthony Davis is in, he's questionable.

1111
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:44,760
But if either one of them misses, there is some

1112
00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:47,360
size missing down low and we could see a little

1113
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,519
bit of a track meet here, and I actually think

1114
00:53:49,559 --> 00:53:51,199
the over could be in play because of that. This

1115
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,719
total open two thirty one and a half. It's down

1116
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,119
to two twenty nine and a half now some of

1117
00:53:56,119 --> 00:53:58,440
the Sharper books that we're still holding two thirty. Pinnacle

1118
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:00,840
is still holding the two thirty. Keep it on the

1119
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:03,199
injury report. I'm doing this, you know, mid afternoon for

1120
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:05,360
you to get it out as a free opinion, free information.

1121
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:07,360
But I would lean over to twenty nine and a

1122
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:10,159
half in this game, and if Davis misses, I actually

1123
00:54:10,199 --> 00:54:11,480
like it a little bit more because he's a good

1124
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:14,320
defensive presence down low and we all know how it works.

1125
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:16,159
If one of the stars is out of the last minute.

1126
00:54:16,199 --> 00:54:18,400
You probably come in on Milwaukie at an underdog price

1127
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:20,960
maybe at that point and the over. It's just amazing

1128
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,880
how that works in the NBA. But I do think

1129
00:54:23,119 --> 00:54:25,400
the Greek could be a little limited tonight after third

1130
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:27,159
game and four nights no rest and playing a lot

1131
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,400
yesterday against Houston, We'll look for a little bit of

1132
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:31,159
an up and down track meet and there's some small

1133
00:54:31,159 --> 00:54:33,639
ball over to twenty nine and a half between the

1134
00:54:33,639 --> 00:54:35,519
Bucks and Mavericks tonight on Monday.

1135
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,440
Speaker 1: Someone in our chat a while back said that they

1136
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:43,519
were going to track when a star gets gets ruled out,

1137
00:54:43,559 --> 00:54:46,760
how many times did they cover? Because the markets just

1138
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,800
completely overreact and then the guy that comes into sub

1139
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:52,119
for him, the other team's not ready, there's a letdown.

1140
00:54:52,239 --> 00:54:56,119
The guy's motivated, so you're getting his best correct. It'd

1141
00:54:56,119 --> 00:54:57,800
be really really interesting.

1142
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 6: Nandy, real quick on that. I actually coming into the

1143
00:55:00,519 --> 00:55:02,559
NBA season this year, that was my game plan to

1144
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:04,639
just blindly play. I've tracked it for a few years.

1145
00:55:04,639 --> 00:55:07,800
It's been sixty seven percent the last few seasons. It's

1146
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,039
got a few different catalysts you have to put. First

1147
00:55:10,039 --> 00:55:13,000
of all, I think it really has to be somewhat sudden.

1148
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:15,559
It has to be like the day of and it

1149
00:55:15,599 --> 00:55:17,440
has to be the first game. And there's reasons for

1150
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:19,639
that because first of all, it catches the other team

1151
00:55:19,679 --> 00:55:22,320
off guard. They haven't game plan necessary for the other guys.

1152
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:24,360
And it does, like you say, give kind of a

1153
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:25,719
quick spark to the locker room.

1154
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:26,159
Speaker 4: I believe.

1155
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:28,440
Speaker 6: And these are all college all Americans for the most part.

1156
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:31,280
They can score in their sleep, and it does work.

1157
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:33,360
The problem is, as for my clients at wager Talk,

1158
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:35,280
I'm putting my plays out right around now, like around

1159
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:38,760
noon Eastern. It's very difficult to come back at five

1160
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:41,159
or six o'clock at night, two hours before the game

1161
00:55:41,199 --> 00:55:43,079
and tell people, hey, go play this. So that's why

1162
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:45,519
it's really hard to do it. But as a sport's

1163
00:55:45,519 --> 00:55:47,039
better out there. This is a way to build your

1164
00:55:47,039 --> 00:55:49,519
bank roll. Don't be afraid to play those teams. And

1165
00:55:49,599 --> 00:55:51,840
also the reason it works is because the lines usually

1166
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,800
get shifted five, six, seven points and it doesn't even

1167
00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:56,880
come close. These teams went outright. Sometimes it's put part

1168
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:58,840
of it on the money line at plus money. It's

1169
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,440
a great kind of fade the public mentality that continues

1170
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:03,199
to work, and it will continue to work when the

1171
00:56:03,199 --> 00:56:05,039
lines get adjusted, so it's something that has not been

1172
00:56:05,079 --> 00:56:06,519
accounted for by the benny markets.

1173
00:56:07,559 --> 00:56:09,519
Speaker 1: Absolutely, Steve Merral, what do you have up for everyone

1174
00:56:09,559 --> 00:56:10,159
at wager Talk.

1175
00:56:11,559 --> 00:56:13,199
Speaker 6: This is a great time of year to be at

1176
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,199
all sport all access client, great time of the year

1177
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:17,480
be all sport, all access clients. We have four major

1178
00:56:17,519 --> 00:56:20,159
sports going all at once right now, College and pro football,

1179
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,880
and college and pro basketball on a daily basis, normally

1180
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:25,880
seven days is ninety nine. But I've got a promo

1181
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:27,880
code that's still applying for about a one more day

1182
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,599
this week, and that's seven days for just seventy nine.

1183
00:56:30,639 --> 00:56:33,079
Full details are on the website right now, Steve merrillwager

1184
00:56:33,159 --> 00:56:37,400
talk dot com. That promo code is plays seven plays seven.

1185
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:40,079
You see it on our screen. Our producer Dan Alexander

1186
00:56:40,159 --> 00:56:42,599
is quick at the switch. He's the best. Play seven.

1187
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You go get the seven day for ninety nine, but

1188
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at checkout, use play seven and you'll get it for

1189
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just seventy nine. It's a great way to try out

1190
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seven days all access college and Pro football and basketball.

1191
00:56:53,159 --> 00:56:55,199
Or if you want thirty days of basketball, I have

1192
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a thirty day combo for just one eighty nine B

1193
00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:01,360
ball thirty, bball three zero B ball thirty seed on

1194
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:04,000
the screen there gets you college and pronoun. Each is

1195
00:57:04,079 --> 00:57:05,679
usually one eighty nine. You get them both for one

1196
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:07,920
eighty nine. It select the combo in a checkout used

1197
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:10,159
B ball thirty, get them both for one eighty nine.

1198
00:57:10,199 --> 00:57:12,760
That's thirty days of basketball or real quick. The final

1199
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:15,840
promo code no promo code needed. Actually, the final special

1200
00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:17,920
offer is on my page right now. Is a one

1201
00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:21,480
year instant five hundred dollars discount all access pass. Yes,

1202
00:57:21,519 --> 00:57:23,639
that gets all of college and pro football and basketball

1203
00:57:23,639 --> 00:57:25,519
for the next year. It also gets all of next

1204
00:57:25,559 --> 00:57:28,239
year's baseball season. Don't forget we went eleven and two

1205
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:30,639
in the baseball playoffs this year that just finished. Can't

1206
00:57:30,639 --> 00:57:33,639
wait for next year's baseball season. Three hundred and sixty

1207
00:57:33,679 --> 00:57:36,719
five days all access instant five hundred dollars discount, bonus

1208
00:57:36,719 --> 00:57:39,760
twenty five percent coupon works out about a dollar a play,

1209
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,239
and there's no promo code needed. It's on my page

1210
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:44,760
right now, right above the daily free play. Check the

1211
00:57:44,840 --> 00:57:46,840
bonus free play. It's the last cup for my best

1212
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:49,599
bet card, hitting over seventy percent of the free players

1213
00:57:49,599 --> 00:57:52,360
over the past month Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com

1214
00:57:52,400 --> 00:58:00,079
get there quicker with shortcut WT dot buzz slash sm.

1215
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:01,679
Speaker 1: Great work Steve Meryll breakdowns. Thank you very much and

1216
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:04,840
as always, Steve crushes it with that fade the public video.

1217
00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:07,400
One of the best videos that we have on the website.

1218
00:58:07,519 --> 00:58:10,159
And you can get notified when he releases that video

1219
00:58:10,199 --> 00:58:12,360
if you subscribe to the channel. We're up almost to

1220
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:16,000
a quarter of a million subscribers. What are you waiting for?

1221
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:18,800
If you haven't subscribed, please subscribe to the channel. That

1222
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:21,239
way you get all notifications when we go live. Hit

1223
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,079
the like button as well. All right, let's do a

1224
00:58:24,119 --> 00:58:25,840
slew of free place here. Let's go all around the

1225
00:58:25,840 --> 00:58:28,559
world and then let's break down the cavaliers at the heat.

1226
00:58:28,639 --> 00:58:31,239
We're gonna go to a player prop for tonight Packers Eagles,

1227
00:58:31,320 --> 00:58:35,400
Josh Jacobs over two and a half receptions. He's gone

1228
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:37,840
over this in five out of the last six games.

1229
00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:41,760
He's getting four targets in those games for whatever reason,

1230
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:43,440
he's involved in the passing game. So we'll take us

1231
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:46,320
over to and a half receptions. Ralph Michael Special. We're

1232
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:48,920
going with another blowout yukon minus thirty three and a

1233
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:52,719
half against Columbia. Yukon coming off a one ten forty

1234
00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:57,000
seven win against UMass Lowell, Columbia won their first game

1235
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:58,920
of the season. They beat a team called New Haven

1236
00:58:59,360 --> 00:59:02,079
that is a team that is the number three hundred

1237
00:59:02,119 --> 00:59:05,559
and sixty four ranked Ken Palm team. So Ralph likes

1238
00:59:05,599 --> 00:59:08,360
the Yukon to lay the wood tonight. And then we

1239
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:11,360
go to the NBA Suns Pelicans. Roy O'Neil over two

1240
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:13,760
and a half made three point news. He's gone over

1241
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:16,119
in eight out of ten games this season. He's averaging

1242
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:19,400
eight point three three point attempts and he shooting forty

1243
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:23,440
three point four percent. Those numbers hold up tonight, He's

1244
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:25,800
gonna go over again. And someone already mentioned the chat

1245
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:28,239
chat how bad the Pelicans are twenty third and three

1246
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:31,360
point defense. So he's played twenty nine minutes per game,

1247
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:35,400
should get plenty of looks. All right, let's go break

1248
00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:39,960
down the Cavaliers and Heat, real quick, Cavaliers and Heat.

1249
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:42,960
We have a monster total in this one of two

1250
00:59:43,079 --> 00:59:46,360
forty seven and a half. Cleveland is minus seven and

1251
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:48,800
a half. You can find some minus eights out there.

1252
00:59:49,519 --> 00:59:51,159
Let's go over some stats here and I'll tell you why.

1253
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:53,440
I like the heat to cover this spread. And then

1254
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:55,880
I'll give you some player props. Miami is number one

1255
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:59,960
in pace, Cleveland's number four. Miami number nine in all

1256
01:00:00,599 --> 01:00:04,719
offensive efficiency, slightly better than Cleveland. Cleveland comes in at twelve.

1257
01:00:04,760 --> 01:00:07,440
And believe it or not, Miami a little better on defense.

1258
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:11,360
Defensive efficiency number six in the league. Cleveland is number nine.

1259
01:00:11,480 --> 01:00:14,920
Miami just this is just what Miami does. They go

1260
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,679
get Norm Powell. Norm Powell's giving him twenty three points

1261
01:00:17,679 --> 01:00:21,679
a night. BAM's giving him twenty. Andrew Wiggins looks not

1262
01:00:22,239 --> 01:00:24,480
like the elite Andrew Wiggins, but he's giving them seven

1263
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,239
to points a night. And Hawkes coming off the bench

1264
01:00:27,599 --> 01:00:31,079
just a monster, seventeen to seven and five coming off

1265
01:00:31,079 --> 01:00:34,039
the bench. So they've got players. Spolster continues to be

1266
01:00:34,079 --> 01:00:36,760
one of the best coaches in the league. Darius Garland

1267
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:39,199
is back for Cleveland. He shook off the rust in

1268
01:00:39,239 --> 01:00:42,519
his first game, played twenty eight minutes. In the second game,

1269
01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:45,639
had twenty points. And Donovan Mitchell is having a big season.

1270
01:00:45,639 --> 01:00:48,400
He's averaging over thirty points. But Miami is second best

1271
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:52,440
in defending point guards. Here's the key. This is why

1272
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:55,199
I like Miami. This Miami Heat. Team is four to

1273
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:56,920
zero at home, and I don't think they've won a

1274
01:00:57,000 --> 01:01:00,320
road game, so they love playing at home, and Calves

1275
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:02,960
are only three and two on the road. Calves could

1276
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:05,199
win this and not cover. This number is too big.

1277
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:08,239
I'm gonna take the Miami Heat and the points. If

1278
01:01:08,239 --> 01:01:11,000
you're looking for some player props, Sam Merrill over nine

1279
01:01:11,039 --> 01:01:13,719
and a half points. This is a client play under

1280
01:01:14,000 --> 01:01:15,840
the last game, but he went over the first six

1281
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,239
games of the season. He's shooting fifty seven percent from

1282
01:01:18,239 --> 01:01:21,199
the field. He is lights out from three pointers, so

1283
01:01:21,239 --> 01:01:23,719
we'll take his over nine and a half points. Lonzo

1284
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:26,360
Ball over seven and a half rebounds plus assists. This

1285
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:28,599
is pretty easy. He's gone over every game this season,

1286
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:32,480
nine point four potential assists, seven point five rebound chances.

1287
01:01:32,679 --> 01:01:34,880
And Nikola Yovic under twelve and a half points. He's

1288
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:37,719
coming off a twenty nine point game. Don't be fooled

1289
01:01:37,760 --> 01:01:40,280
by that. Before that, he had twelve plus points one

1290
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:44,840
time this season. NBA and NHL Prop Special is up

1291
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:47,239
sixty nine dollars and gets you seven days of props.

1292
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:49,519
This is how I build bank roll. We talk about

1293
01:01:49,519 --> 01:01:51,440
it all the time. We're up thirteen units just in

1294
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:55,159
the month of November. We're fifteen and eight to start

1295
01:01:55,199 --> 01:01:57,480
the NBA season. We're number one in NBA props the

1296
01:01:57,519 --> 01:01:59,559
last two seasons. You guys hear me talk about all

1297
01:01:59,559 --> 01:02:01,679
the time. We got five plays that are up tonight,

1298
01:02:01,719 --> 01:02:03,239
so you want to use this specially, you're gonna get

1299
01:02:03,239 --> 01:02:06,239
the week started off with three NBA plays and to

1300
01:02:06,599 --> 01:02:09,360
NHL plays that is up at wager talk dot com.

1301
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:12,320
Get there quicker with shortcut wt dot buzz slash al

1302
01:02:13,679 --> 01:02:15,440
All right, guys, great show. I know we went a

1303
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:18,079
little a long, but tons of great information, good discussion,

1304
01:02:18,079 --> 01:02:20,280
and thank you to you guys in the chat. Please

1305
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:23,760
hit the like button. I know someone asked about asking

1306
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:25,440
Ralph Michael if he can do a chart. I will

1307
01:02:25,440 --> 01:02:27,800
message Ralph right now and see if he can pull

1308
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:31,000
that off for you again. Leaving the comments section, was

1309
01:02:31,039 --> 01:02:34,440
that the jetsiest thing you've ever seen? Yesterday? We're gonna

1310
01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:38,400
be back tomorrow, same time, newon eastern, nine am Pacific.

1311
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:40,800
We have a big Monday night football game. Can't wait

1312
01:02:40,840 --> 01:02:42,320
to see if we cash them tickets in that one.

1313
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:43,800
Look on your bets tonight. Take care