Speaker 1: Welcome to Way Did You Talk Today, the gold standard
of sports betting shows, where we talked to talk and
walk the walk. It is Monday, coming off a huge weekend.
We're gonna recap. We got plenty to break down. Yannie's
gonna start us off with the steam of Port. Crack
Man's gonna join us. It was legendary NBA props thoughts
on Monday Night football and Steve mail Is gonna join us.
We talk Eagles, Packers. We're gonna talk a little college
hoops with Missisisis State, Iowa State, and NBA Bucks versus Mavericks.
Steve's got a loaded segment that's gonna be awesome. All right,
let's get into it, guys, hit the like button. Hope
everyone had a great weekend. It was a really really
solid weekend across most sports for us. So hope everyone's
doing well. Let's bring on, Yannie, talk about what we
got going on a little bit of a slower Monday, Yannie,
I think it's just the weather. Cold everywhere, Yeah, cold everywhere.
Speaker 2: Such a busy couple days.
Speaker 3: It's like everybody's taking a deep breath early in the
morning Monday and getting ready for another big week. Again,
with so many sports going on at the same time,
it's always always gonna be enough action on the board.
Monday Night Football tonight with huge line move, no surprise,
a lot of sharp money came in on the Philadelphia
Eagles at that key number of three. Since then, you've
been getting more Philadelphia money adding risk. That's why you're
looking at a pick them minus one depending where you shop.
So obviously they're loaded up on Eagle money early and
trying to get Green Bay action help balance that risk.
It'll probably happen green Bay at home, and to pick them,
I could see two way sharp action because again plus
three and pick them are two completely different bets, especially
when you're talking NFL as far as the total pot
primetime game. Just like last night, they're coming back with
the over. They didn't get there last night, so they're
coming back on Monday Night with the over, whether they're
taking the Eagles or the Packers. I'm seeing teasers with
the over, seeing parlays with the over. But yeah, it
looks like by the time this game kicks off it'll
be a lot more balanced. But early on the line
move tells you everything. It's been a lot of Eagle money.
And again this is a revenge game from the playoffs
of last year. If you remember Eagles knocking Green Bay
out of it. I think that game was like close
spread too. So yeah, it'll be a tough, tough game
for both these teams, big game for both these teams.
Speaker 2: But I haven't released anything yet.
Speaker 1: Time will tell. Yeah, yes, you're right. The over did
not get there last night. One time the score was
three to two. That's when you knew that the over
was cooked.
Speaker 2: It wasn't gonna get there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's interesting about the over money. I mean,
it's cold. It is really cold up there. It's about
twenty degrees by the time that game kicks off. Does
it look like it's gonna be two indy or snowy
or rainy, But it's gonna be pretty cold.
Speaker 3: So the more recency because you look at the Eagles,
they're coming off back to bank games, I mean three
straight overs.
Speaker 2: Now, five of their last six games have flew over
to total.
Speaker 3: They put thirty or more points up in three of
those five. They've led up three touchdowns or more in
all five of those games. And Green Bay except for
last week where that was an ugly game with Carolina
where they lost as two touchdown favorites. They had put
up same thing over over over put in twenty seven
or more points four straight weeks. Two of those weeks
they put thirty or more. So I think it's a
lot of recency bias with both of those teams. Again,
the total hasn't really moved once it got the forty six.
The look ahead was like forty four forty.
Speaker 2: Four and a half.
Speaker 3: It went up right away forty five forty five and
a half. Once it hit forty six, that's where it stayed.
Haven't seen any really take back or anything of note
from the sharps on that one.
Speaker 1: All right, let's see any interesting opening lines. We just
watched Teddy do opening line report. Interested on your end
about if you see any sharp action on some of
these early early no.
Speaker 3: I was actually looking at college football early because I
always liked to look at my power rankings and how
those teams did that I thought were phonies, and then
what they have this week there's not really big like
Marquee college football game. I was even looking like, is
there an LSU.
Speaker 2: Alabama type game?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 2: And there really isn't.
Speaker 3: But funny that is one of the first bets that
I saw in college football this week was Arkansas Arkansas
plus six and a half over LSU in LSU, So
that was a college football game of note in the SEC,
probably get most of the attention because again not too
many primetime games NFL real quickly, Miami, who's coming off
a big win in that look ahead.
Speaker 2: Got hit immediately.
Speaker 3: In fact, Washington were one point favorites against Miami. That
was the look ahead prior to yesterday's game. So before
Miami went out there and did what they did and
beat Buffalo as touchdown dogs, and before Washington looked as
bad as they did against Detroit, Washington was actually the favorite.
Speaker 2: Shows you just how.
Speaker 3: Quickly the market changes, because you're now looking at Miami
at minus two and a half and rest of short
they're going up to three pretty quickly. Other interesting is
green Bay already getting steam and they haven't played yet.
The look ahead for green Bay next week against the
Giants was seven. That's already gotten hit. Yesterday it got
hit up to eight and a half. So they laid
that seven on green Bay before green Bay even plays tonight.
And then another one San Francisco. San Francisco, which got
blown out yesterday, still coming back with them twice that
the look ahead was a pick that got hit to
one one and a half.
Speaker 2: That got hit again.
Speaker 3: So they like San Francisco on the road saw that
in multiple accounts, and the last one Kansas City Chiefs,
Kansas City Chiefs that didn't get hit.
Speaker 2: Here's what I mean.
Speaker 3: It was the look ahead that got hit that two
and a half three look ahead. They moved that pretty
quickly because it's the Kansas City Chiefs and that's a
team that they're gonna have exposure on weekend week out.
That's sitting at four across the board. It'll be interesting
to see if you get any love for the Denver
Broncos as home dogs, because up until about a week ago,
you know, Denver was one of those teams that at
least was on the rise. You know, everybody was talking
about is does this team have a shot? Are they legit?
But yeah, you're seeing, uh, what's it called immediate bets
on somebody's look aheads, But try to pay attention to
does it have follow through? That's where Odd's logic screen
and at least the free one at wager Talk becomes
so important.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I mean, these are obvious reactions to
quarterback play. Brian's Brian's as Dart might be concussed. I
would say Dart is concussed. I have no idea what
they're doing on that team to keep sending him into
linebackers like they do. But him getting hurt was the
least surprising thing. And then yeah, yeah, I.
Speaker 3: Look, Denver Denver very easily, other than they played one
bad game where they lost by more than a score.
That was in Indianapolis, and we all know how good
Indianapolis right is right now because in fact, Denver was
only a one point dog in that game.
Speaker 2: That wouldn't be the case now.
Speaker 3: But Denver has gone ahead and won what now seven
straight games, four and three against the spread, which I like,
they haven't outperformed the betting market. Where they have outperformed
the betting market is not being able to win by margin,
like when their favorites. As long as they're not big favorites.
Speaker 2: They're getting the job done.
Speaker 3: But when they're losing two, they're not losing by margin either.
It's going to be interesting to see if Kansas City
gets faded because Denver's done real good with at least
of late, they've beaten them straight up I think, two
of the last three games and covered three straight against
Kansas City. So it'll be interesting to see if Kansas
City looks to get revenge because last year, remember they
sat everyone and Denver beat them thirty eight nothing I
think the last week of the season.
Speaker 2: So it'd be interesting if Kansas City's out for a
little bit revenge.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, there are so many holes you can
poke in this Denver, I mean barely beating the Raiders
ten to seven. Bon Nicks the exactly barely beat the
Texans when CJ. Stroud got hurt. But the Giants that
was a miracle of all miracle with when they scored
thirty three points in the fourth quarter. And then bon
Nicks just, I mean, he just looked awful. So yeah,
you got I mean, yeah, they're winning. You're right, they're
not covering. But I imagine this line move has a
lot to do with eye tests because bon NICKX just
looks like he's regressing.
Speaker 3: Oh, I gotta I gotta answer a question that just
popped up. Financially free. I love the question, my friend,
I love the question. My man says, why not want
teaser through some key totals. I'm gonna I'm gonna explain
something to you. Be very cautious of small sample sizes.
That is, that is the gambler's fallacy, where we see
a small sample size of results and we think we
found the Holy Grail edge You if you don't have
a statistically significant sample size, there's a lot of randomness involved.
Speaker 2: So over ten twenty.
Speaker 3: Thirty bets, teasing those those totals may be advantageous. But
I promise you this isn't an opinion for me. This
is math, strictly math based. Men much smarter than me,
much smarter than me, sat down and did the computations,
and they came to the conclusion that there is zero
way to get positive ev out of teasing totals. And
I can promise you they tried every possible way to
find an edge, at least like with the teaser cards,
parlay cards, half point cards, I win cards. Believe me,
mathematicians have gone through every mathematical computation to make sure
if there's any inefficient odds even they're gonna take advantage
of it.
Speaker 2: And I can promise you I've.
Speaker 3: Done nothing but move money for the most profitable sports
betters on the planet for twenty plus years, and only
once in the last decade has anyone ever even teased
college football. That happened last year in the playoffs. They
don't even tease college foot They don't even think you
could tease college football and make it profitable, let alone teasing.
I mean college football signs, forget total signs, but NFL totals.
I'm telling you, brother, I'm glad you made some money
with it. Be happy, move on with that profit, but
don't keep placing those bets because they are negative.
Speaker 1: Ev Yeah, it's a really good point.
Speaker 3: I love you, brother, I'm glad you beat your guy
up financial I'm on your side. I hope it keeps
working for you, bro, I promise you. I want you
to keep blasting him with them, but just be careful.
When it stops working, just put that to design and
find something new.
Speaker 1: I wonder why that is probably just the like the
spreads can end up twenty different or just like And then.
Speaker 3: When the games fall close, Man, there's weeks where every
total hits, every teaser hits. Don't matter what side you do.
You know over under dog favorite, that's gonna happen. But again,
if you're only betting that day, then who cares about
long term results? But if you're betting next week, next month,
next year, you're gonna keep betting, then you have to
look for good bets, you know what I mean. But like,
if you're only placing one bet, then who gives a
shit about closing line value? Who cares about shopping for
the best line? The only thing you care about is
cashing that damn ticket.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, UFC, it happened again, Yanni. We had a big,
big move close to a dollar. Yeah, boom feet fight,
I mean boem Beme's the favorite. He miss his way,
he looks terrible, and all of a sudden, all this
money comes in. It is rinse and repeat with this
because the money told us a story. Chris Padilla gets
to finish and it's just like this is just tried
and true. This at least just this year since I've
been tracking it. After Wigns, you get that big aggressive move,
it's like somebody.
Speaker 2: Attention to it. Attention to it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's monitoring the market and taking advantage of information
someone obviously has. Someone's doing really good after Wavens, and
there's nothing wrong with telling it. I did that with
the NFL Draft the last two or three years, there's
a particular sports book that someone bets into that happens
to crush these NFL props. I wait till they bet,
and then I take the next best line after them.
I say, you go first, sir, you lay them on twenty.
I'm okay with that. I'll piggyback the one fifty. I've
got no problems doing that.
Speaker 1: You know, I bet it's I wonder if it's the
guy that it's like in charge of the scale. It's
like this this rain of we need it, we needed
when someone gets on the scale, they missed. We we
need to look at the guy. That's like.
Speaker 3: The apex that they have with like eight signs around
it and tape stuff do not touch, do not And
I always joke like I'm going to go touch that scale.
It's like that, I swear, you think like it's got
all kind of security around it. They have this scale
sitting in the middle of the apex, but no one
can touch and stop. Yeah, you've seen in some commission
some of those scales are a little shaky.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh yeah. They have two scales like what
on the back for everybody and then one out front,
and then nothing's more wild than when they don't match
when they say they make in the back in other countries.
Oh oh yeah, absolutely absolutely we have uh I mean Janny. Honestly,
this is probably the best UFC card I've seen of
the year, and we've had some really good ones coming
yeah this week, this this card is unbelievable. Capping off
with uh Is Makachev versus Jack Dela Madelena. We're already
getting questions about the main of bay initial thoughts here
on what the line is.
Speaker 3: Thank you for asking, Thank you for asking. Actually tape
the show on this last week. When I taped thet
UFC for on the Line, we did for this one
that just passed on Saturday. We taped double shows, so
we did ahead this pay per view. So I had
to break this card down already. I'm on an island.
I'm telling you now, sharp betters, sharp guys like the
Jack dallamed Alina side.
Speaker 2: They like him as a dog. I'm on the other side.
Speaker 3: I will not fade is Lamaka chev And here's the
bottom line for the reasoning behind it. I was riding
Jack Maddalena. I thought he was undervalued in fact, I
had him against what's it called in his last fight
with Dalamahammad.
Speaker 2: I had him as a two to one dog.
Speaker 3: But let's not forget against Balamahammad, he closed at plus
two hundred.
Speaker 2: If Makachev fought.
Speaker 3: Balamahammad tomorrow, the line that they have up right now,
the hype anthetical is minus five hundred. So it shows
you the difference in implied win probability between Makachev and Belah.
But here's what's more important when you break down that
fight with Blah and Jack Mattilena, here's what the mistake
that I'm seeing a lot I think are making because
they're saying, look, the Law is the same as Islam,
same wrestling, even working out together, same team, and he
wasn't able to take him down.
Speaker 2: The hell he wasn't.
Speaker 3: He took him down three times, he almost controlled him
for a full round. He only landed two ground strikes.
That's the difference. Bellah's there to take you down and
control you. Islam's there to take you down.
Speaker 2: And finish you.
Speaker 3: If Islam takes you down, he's going to choke you out,
he's gonna sub you, He's going to smash you. That's
what normalgo medoff team does. They're not grappling to control
and win a decision. They grappled to finish fights. That
is what their offense is. And you're talking about a
different level of animal, no disrespect between the wrestling of
Balamahammed and the wrestling of islamaka Chev.
Speaker 2: You know what Islam's going to do and you still
can't stop it.
Speaker 3: That to me is the highest skill set in any
sport when you know what's coming and you still can't
stop it. And he's not going to be out of
his depth in the stand up either. I know he
was a lightweight, but he's not going to be a
lightweight on Saturday Night. He will be a full welter weight,
that's for sure. So be careful with all that Jack
Madalena plus money because islamaka Chev is still the man
to be.
Speaker 1: I think you and I are Lockstep. I did my
tape research.
Speaker 4: Yeah are you?
Speaker 2: I thought you were going to be on that dog bro.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, it's this is the hipster I'm calling
this the hipster pick. Whereas it is it's.
Speaker 3: Like here not saying torupt you because I want to
hear your thoughts. But here's what I said, here's here's
who he be. Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan and Meve Danny Roberts,
but Siljfes Gilbert Burns, who had lost four in a row.
Those are the wins for JDM, throwing Kevin Full thirty
seven times in the last six months. His only other
good win was Randy Brown, who he saw get knocked
out just three nights ago. Yes, but so where am
I wrong that Islam shouldn't be bigger favorite?
Speaker 1: Basil Hafez took him down. Gilbert Burns by the way,
he was losing that fight to Gilbert Burns. Still he
landed the miracle need three year.
Speaker 2: Old Gilbert Burns.
Speaker 1: Yes, I think Makachev his time is coming. That is
a lot of wear and tear on that body. People
probably don't even realize he's thirty four. The training, all
the fights. Yeah, remember he moved weight divisions for this fight.
He They him and Kabeb know something and they're not.
Speaker 2: Going to take this risk. Thank you. I'm going to
take this risk.
Speaker 1: You're not moving weight divisions to go lose to somebody. Yeah,
I'm with you one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: And yes, seen as wrestling, they've seen his takedown defense,
and they know they.
Speaker 2: Could take it down. They could take him down. Yes
are levels, there are, there are levels. That is great,
great points, sir.
Speaker 1: A Ballall takedown ain't the same as an Islam takedown.
It's just not.
Speaker 2: These guys they want to know my power ratings in
the NFL.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure they want to know them because I
think they're going to be a little disappointed.
Speaker 2: All right, here you go, fuck it.
Speaker 3: Top five my new number one power rating wise, power
rating wise, my new number one Detroit Lions, followed by
the La Rams, followed by the five and four Kansas
City Chiefs, followed by the Buffalo Bills, followed by Seattle.
So there you go, Detroit Rams, k C, Buffalo, Seattle,
all within two points of each other. So the Rams
on a neutral field would only be about one and
a half almost two versus the number five team Buffalo.
Those are the most infact to share with you, those powers,
those golden power ratings.
Speaker 2: College football will go over.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, all right, so Yati, tell ever what
you have up here at wager Talk. I know it's
not so busy right now, but like we said, it's
the low before the storm.
Speaker 3: Yeah, coming off of a three and oh sweep of
four percent best bets on college basketball Saturday three bets,
three and oh fire two bets to night already four
percent and a three percent.
Speaker 2: That package is up. I have a really really really.
Speaker 3: Strong lean in this NFL game, really strong lean. If
I get confirmation, I'm going to fire a big five
percent play. If not, then subscribers will probably get a
three percent for at the most. But if I get confirmation,
I really like this Monday Night game. I got to
see if my read's right.
Speaker 1: Though.
Speaker 3: If it's right, I'm going to fire like I did
yesterday's on our five percent in the Giants game.
Speaker 2: And that's what a five percent should do.
Speaker 3: We should go under forty seven, it should close forty
four and a half, and it should land right on
forty four. That's a beautiful, beautiful under. But yeah, big
week ahead. Thank you. We got the pay per view
for Saturday. I have college football once again. I'm coming
off of losing week in college football. Tell you when
I win, t you and I lose. We've had twelve
weeks of college football. I've turned a profit in ten
of those. We'll keep that going. And of course NFL
ahead and day by day NBA, college basketball, NHL and
anything good I could find, I'm.
Speaker 1: Going to fire.
Speaker 2: So best of luck to you guys. Thank you, thank
you brother.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Yanni, thank you so much. Great steam report, Yannie.
You'll be back this a little bit in a couple
of days, and we got to we'll get ready for
a big, big weekend. Thank you, Yanni. All Right, you
ask any college football, I'll check not at this point,
but we do have a big free play coming up
in all around the world, so I promise to get
you that. We're in play tonight, guys in Monday Night Football.
We do have one prop. It's very random that we're
six and two and we won our last three and
Monday Night Football. I don't know why, but Monday Night Football.
For whatever reason, the props are really good. We've been
talking about props in NBA and NHL, thirteen units in November.
We're still running that special sixty nine dollars for seven
days worth of props. We want to combine this NHL
and NBA props into one package because we want you
guys to get seven days. Any night. Hey, I could
go on a losing night. I had an zero to
three night last week. So anybody that got that, I apologize.
But this is why we preach seven days. Because you're
with us from the beginning of the month. You're up
thirteen units and your bank roll is really, really happy.
So partner up with us. We got a monster card tonight.
Three NBA plays and two NHL plays. That's a lot
for us. So you want to get it today, you're
gonna get The week started off with five props tonight.
That's over at wager talk dot com wt do buzz
slash Al NFL was going great until that damn game
last night. We had Aronde Gadson over his receiving. He
gets hurt. We had Quitting Jobson over his receiving. He
goes under by one yard. But we're looking forward to
cashing this prop tonight, So let's bring in someone else
that knows a thing or two about prop. Bill, you
know more than a thing or two. You know a million,
a million and two things about props. Happy Monday, How
are you hey?
Speaker 4: What's going on? Buddy? Everything good?
Speaker 1: Everything's great, man. It's NBAC in its NHL season. The
props are rolling in and I actually had a friend
of mine say He's like, do you know you're just
in a better mood when we have daily sports that
you can play props. I was like, is that really true?
He's like, yes, when you don't have daily sports and
props to play, you'r like mood changes. So yeah, I'm happy, man,
It's it's going great.
Speaker 4: Props are where it's at. I mean, you know, I
not want to look at my success, but I look
at a couple other guys that I know that bet
props and props is where it's at. I mean, I've
destroyed props so far this season. NBA props are killing it,
NFL props are killing it. I preached that every single
week on the show and on other shows. I do
you know, NFL sides are difficult, NBA sides difficult. Totals
even can get a little difficult. I have some success
on first half things totals, but I do a lot
of them. They day of game based on over movement
throughout the week. I always say it's it's tough to
beat day of game because the market's so efficient. NFL
first half totals. I'm a lifetime winner doing that because
of some early movement over in the week. They sometimes
they don't know how to move around these key numbers.
Yesterday I caught one Draftking FanDuel had twenty three and
a half on the Giants first half. I don't even
know how they had that. There's twenty two and a
half everywhere. Some of the major sports books at twenty
three and a half. One or two had twenty three.
But I even like the under twenty two and a half.
Twenty three is a real key number first half. But again,
I was shocked to see that number at DraftKings and
FanDuel even up until kickoff. Shocked. So a lot of
these big sports books, like the DraftKings and Fandles, they
will keep the number high because they know what the
public does. They know the public loves to bet over
on things, and it's just a built in money maker
for them. Theyre's customers that just don't bet under and
don't bet underdogs, by the way, on anything. So I
get it. I'm glad we can pick them apart. But
nothing like the the NFL props has anyone has seen
that has been with me this season. In the NFL,
especially the NBA the last few weeks, we're destroying props
and thank God, there's market for props because you know,
some of these idiot players taking money, you know they're
they're sportsbooks were threatening to not have props anymore. But
the reason why they will always have props because they
always win. They always win. This is sportsbook I bet with.
Not gonna say who I try to bet pros.
Speaker 1: This is it.
Speaker 4: It actually should be illegal what they do. But good
luck finding a gaming agent that knows what eleven to
ten is. Never mind what I what I want to
show them. So andy, I'm allowed to bet over, I'm
a a lot to bet two grand and under on
I'm a lot to bet one grand. That's insane. But
my max bet for the overs two thousands, and my
max bet for the under is one thousand. So just
think about just think. And it's not just a random
game or two or a random week or two. This
has been since the beginning of NFL season. It's actually crazy.
I don't even question it because, to be honest with you,
to be able to get down a dime is a
lot of money on a prop or two dimes. So
I'm lucky. I have, you know, four or five spots
in town here I can cumulatively get down a decent bet,
you know, three four thousand if I want something on
a prop, which I try to bet the most I can.
But luckily for the wager talk guys, I give them
to them first. I don't front run. It doesn't look
like to me that they're moving to my Vegas market,
so I have no problem giving them out first. You know,
even if they did move a little bit, it's a
win for me because I know I'm gonna, you know,
keep their loyalty and keep their business. It's almost like
winning the prop betting the prop you follow.
Speaker 1: So well, let's talk about a prop. Let's go to
the NBA. I mean there's a million. This is what
we love about props. There's a million of them, so
you can find like just a ton of them. What's
one prop that you're on for tonight.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna give you guys an NBA prop. Darius
Garland assist over six and a half plus oh five.
I also am looking at the market over five and
a half minus one fifty five. I hate laying that
much juice, but it's you know that you only have
so many assists. I have no problem when you're doing it.
So over we're gonna over six and a half plus
oh five, over five and a half minus fifty five.
I'm looking at two different sports books. He's back to
being one hundred percent. Should get his full minutes tonight
versus the heat, huge total two forty seven and a half.
My god, so plenty assist opportunities by that, you know,
the total being so high, fast paced game, the heat
they should double on drives and the hoop forcing Marlin
to pass the ball some and uh, you know, passing
out to the open three point guys. So big, big, big,
high scoring game here tonight. Uh, let's go over Darius
Carland six and a half assists tonight in the game.
There's a freebie for everyone.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was. He struggled in his first game back,
but it looks it looked great now in his last
game that Cavs team is back. I'll be breaking down that.
I actually be breaking down that game a little bit later.
The total is insane.
Speaker 2: What to forty seven and a half time unbelievable?
Speaker 1: Makes sense?
Speaker 4: Seven and a half, let's just do it's coincidence.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I've gotten this question quite a bit about
parlaying props. I never parlay props do you do you
only single your props?
Speaker 4: Listen, it's a great question, and I can't believe it
took this long in my career even for someone to
ask that. Whoever asked that, thank you very much for
asking that question. Yes, of course I would like the
parlay props. Unfortunately, if you parlay props, you're probably gonna
be limited or even thrown out. And I say it's
thrown out, limited to ten bucks, because we're already gonna
win Betton props. Lifetime bookmakers are already know. They're scared
to that the props. Even the local guys now who
use the PPHS, the PPH sites in far off places.
They the guys in there, you know, they're making three
four dollars an hour when them away is three bucks
an hour in the place, you know, certain places, these
guys all they see is someone betting props. Now their
job is to alert the book maker, the person who's
actually booking those bets. Hey, this guy's betting props. So
now they see parlays of props and their accumulators. So
someone that was would parlay you know, three or four
props together, they would see, you know, you're you're making
big scores, they're probably gonna limit it, throw you out.
Listen their advantage bets, of course I don't. I think
parlay are the biggest sucker bet, not only me. They're
giant sucker bets. However, when you're betting advantage things, they're not.
So if I'm betting overnight basketball, Let's say I'm betting
three games, all three is minus three. The next day,
I know they're gonna be minus four, minus four and
a half and five. I have an edge on that parlay.
So of course, by me betting that, I have an
edge on that parlay. But I don't recommend anyone to
do that because it's only gonna get bring heat on
your accounts, or better yet, it's gonna make you bet
parlays on other things, which is a loser. No way.
So parlays. I know everyone loves to do it. I
have my doctors, my dentists, my people around me, friends, guys.
I'm on shows, but I do Nationwide show on Fox.
My co host played in the NFL eight years. He's
a great guy. Loves to bet the parlays. Though I
almost wave the white towel. I said, listen, go ahead,
you want to bet a parlay. If you've bet one
hundred dollars per game is at your number, I have
no problem on you betting a five dollars five teamer.
I don't do it, but they're gonna do it anyway,
so I try to tell them to do it percentage
of bankroll. So I would just go straight on your
on your props. If you start parlaying props, even at
the legal licensed sports books, you will definitely be limited.
That's what I got myself in trouble for, you know,
two years ago, parlay and props.
Speaker 5: But if you have a guy, if you have a
dummy account, what I mean is you have account that
you're betting five, six, seven, eight, ten NFL straight plays
on a Sunday, They're gonna see that and they're gonna say, Wow,
this guy's losing.
Speaker 4: Anyway on NFL. He bet the NFL. Yeah, give him
the parlay props. So I don't recommend it, though it's
a great question. I'm surprised no one ever asked me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't gotten it asked. And this is like
the third time in the last couple of weeks that
I've been asked about it. So and I justin brings
up a good point. Yeah, I'm talking about the main
sports like NBA, NHL, MLB, NFL. We do a lot
of more obscure props. So you'll you'll see tennis parlays
and you know, different things like that.
Speaker 4: So I don't know those Andy, those NFL m listen,
perhaps are for suckers. Sixty to seventy percent of these
sportsbooks in their earnings report their public companies show where
they make their money. That's where they're making their money.
It's should they show that every quarter every year. You know,
a lot of these things. Uh, you know, the public
just loves doing Giohanny said something before, oh boy teasing
college football totals. Listen, these are all losing things long term.
Short term you can win, have some fun with it,
I guess, but you know, it's just I just know
what happens in the end. I've worked with the sharpest
syndicate groups in the in the in the world, like
Johnny has I don't even talk to Johnny. I've talked
to him once in my life. I don't really talk
to Johnny so and nothing against it. We just haven't
got together yet. He's right here in Vegas to I'm
surprised we have n't, but uh yeah, we've seen what
has happens. You know, We've had guys that are the
sharpest mathematical analytical guys in the world, model based driven guys,
and they've tried it. They've tried beating teasers on totals
in the NFL. They've tried beating teasers in college football. No,
absolutely not. Don't do it. Don't do it. You're it
looks easy, I understand, and especially when you win, it
looks easy. But look at your results what it would
have been without the extra six or seven points in
teasing totals. You probably would have won that too. But
now you're laying thirteen to ten, fourteen to ten, fifteen
to ten in town here there is sixteen to ten.
You have to lay a dollars sixty to win one
hundred on a seven point teaser at a couple shops.
Impossible to beat, even if you're betting the long teasers
around the key numbers in the NFL. Impossible to beat.
Speaker 1: You got any thoughts on Monday night football tonight?
Speaker 4: Listen, I have a play up there at wager Talk.
You know, you look at these this game, I'm trying
to find someone else on the other side. I'm gonna
find someone on Green Bay sooner or later. I know
one thing. As of right now, the sportsbooks are on
Green Bay. But now that they're bringing it down to
pick them, they're gonna get some two way action. They
just don't wanted to land on one or two. And
you know, I interview the head of BETMGM every Sunday
on my Fox show. He's the head of risk for
the entire company. He gave me some eighty five and
ninety percent. Ninety percent of the public had Buffalo yesterday.
This was an hour before the game. They're like games
that you know, I always say God protects the book maker.
Ninety percent of people have Buffalo. They lost out right,
eighty percent had they lost this game Detroit. Eighty percent
had Detroit. So he lost that game. Big Michigan presence
though for BETMGM, and he had a seventy five percent.
I just can't think what it was. There was a
third game there was a seventy five percent. So I like,
you know, I don't like all these places that you splits.
Let's say sixty percent of the money's on this eighty percent.
I don't want to know in print. I don't want
to know it's not up to date. I don't want
to know. When I talk to a head of risk,
which I do every single Sunday morning, an hour and
a half before the games, I know that what he's
saying is factual and law. Whenever he says something's eighty percent,
i'll tell you know. In the beginning of the season though,
they got whacked because Detroit covered a couple of times,
like the week two and three. But the eighty eighty
five percent, oh my god, it's it's just it's just money.
It's just money betting against you know, betting against the public.
And I don't say always bet against the public, but
right now the public is all over the Eagles here.
But however, now that Green Bays the lines come down
to pick them, that's gonna probably even up there. So
and just because it's on you know, TV, guys, you
don't have to bet the side. There's props. There's some
other things I wouldn't recommend live wagering. Live wagering is
the crack cocaine again, ambling at double the juice. So
just make sure you know that you're gonna bet live.
You're gonna bet double the juice and you're going to
be against That's right, I said it. Cheating sports books,
that's right, because you're under a sixty second delay where
they can deny your bet. When it's put in a queue,
they can deny the winners and take the losers. I'm
not saying which ones, but it goes on. It happened
out here in Vegas. They threw the sports book out
of town. Took them a couple of years and about
forty millions in fines, but they threw cann Gaming out
of town. One of the reasons they were cheating on
live wagering with the delay with I know the kid
that was back there, he actually said it. You know,
he didn't know. He thought his job was to deny.
You know, they have first in goal, the team scores
that someone's betting the team that scores. He denies the wager.
Someone bet the other team, He takes the wager. That's cheating.
But how can gaming police that. I'm telling you that's
how hard it is for gaming to police that. They'd
have to see firsthand and understand the dynamics and the
moving parts of the game to understand what the bookmakers
are doing. Now again, I'm not saying all the bookmakers
are doing and I'm not saying ninety percent are doing it,
but you can guarantee those books out there that are
absolutely cheating.
Speaker 1: I tried live betting like four or five years ago
on NFL. Oh my lord, that is a great way
to nukebank roll. I don't have the secret sauce. I
could live bet UFC till the cows come home.
Speaker 3: Me.
Speaker 1: Trying to bet NFL was an unmitigated disaster. I haven't done.
Speaker 4: You're on a sixty second delay and you're you're at
the mercy of double the juice, so you're paying a
lot more than pre flop juice.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, that's that's tough. Be careful with live betting,
so we talk about it all the time. All right, Bill,
what do you have up for everyone at wager Talk?
Speaker 4: Hey, my packages are up there. I recommend getting as
the week package. You know, I'm looking at the prices
NBA twenty one and nine run. Yeah, they keep track
of as though. I know we were one fifty eight
one twelve plus thirty seven point six units last NBA season.
The props, it's props. I don't bet side of totals,
it's props. So we have them loaded today. And like
I said, you want to get in more than just
a daily package, where like Andy, you said the other
day that you had a zero to three, but yet
for the week you're balanced out or winning. You have
to go long term here. So I would recommend anyone
to go for at least a week, a week package,
a month package to lock me up through the super Bowl.
I say it all the time, You're gonna get all
these props, all these super Bowl props and everything involved.
And you know, listen, I hate to be so arrogant,
but I'm not gonna lose on props, props. I'm gonna
I'm gonna kill. It's the reason why it gets front
of so many sportsbooks.
Speaker 1: Love it, Bill, thank you very much, so happy, Thank you,
prop better, Thank you Bill crack Man. Everybody, let's do
Let's let's go to where the books won, where the
public one. We got some prop winners and losers. We
normally do overreaction, but we're in week ten. We're done
with We're done with the overreaction. So I'm changing this
to questions. And Steve merrill is on deck. So, Steve,
if you have answers to these questions that we're gonna
go over. The first question was that the jetsiest thing ever.
We talked about this on Friday. The Jets trade their
defense acquired draft picks and then promptly score two special
team touchdowns to win in worse than their draft position.
To me, it was one of the Jetsiest things I've
ever seen. Are we not talking enough about Jonathan Taylor season?
Through ten games, he has one nine rushing yards and
fifteen tds and he's added thirty receptions in two hundred
and sixty yards to tds. People are talking about it,
but I'm just worrying for not talking enough about it.
What do we make of the Bills? So they eat
the Chiefs and they get boat raced by the Dolphins.
I cannot figure out the Bills. I will not have
a bet on a Buffalo bill player or anything involved
the Buffalo Bills for the rest of the season. I
cannot figure them out. Here's an interesting one put in
the chat or the comment section about this one. This
is this is this is my favorite one. Are the
Seahawks rams the best one to two combo in any division?
Your Your competition for that is Pat's Bills, Steelers, Ravens,
Broncos Chargers, and Packers Lions. That Packers Lions could be there,
but right now Seahawks Rams. It may be the best
one two combination in any division. So let me know
what you think of those questions. Let's go to where
the books one? Where the public one, Browns and Jets
under thirty seven big winner for the book, I mean Buffalo,
I mean the books probably made how much how much
the buff did they make on Buffalo yesterday? And then
the Jacks Texans under looked like it was going to
be a sure thing until it was where the public won.
Ravens were big, giants, Bears under was big, Lions minus
to players big and Rams minus the point was minus
points were big winners for the public. But that Buffalo one,
I'm the teasers, the money line parlays, the survivor just
absolute bloodbath. Let's go to props and fantasy football winners losers.
Jonathan Taylor, of course, continued to be a winner. Drake
London has been awesome the last couple of weeks. Duvon
A Chain had a huge, huge game if you went
against him in Fantasy. I feel bad for you. Jalen
Naylor starting to come alive. Here for the Vikings, and
we'll get to the other two wide receivers and the losers.
Jerry Judy had a really good game. He's been non existent,
but he's kind of come alive and Traveon Henderson, this
guy was like the absolute epitome of the Fantasy and
Props loser and now he's just like the ultimate winner.
It looks great. Mac Hollins, uh with those injuries, he
has the big game. Chris Olave showed a pulse, he
looked good. David Mills and Nico Collins put up big.
Trey McBride continues to be a little bit underrated. I'm
not sure why I didn't play his overs with Jacoby
Brissett at quarterback. Kicking myself for that one. Stafford, Kyron Williams,
Devontae and Puka all become they're just they're wagons man.
And then Mac Jones, Kittle Jennings were big winners and
Jamier Gibbs had the huge game. Fantasy losers. Kyle Manongai,
what a bear's doing?
Speaker 4: This?
Speaker 1: Sky like goes for one hundred and seventy six yards
and then we barely give him the golf ball, Thank
you very much. James Cook was pretty tough. That was
a rough game. And Jordan Addison, Justin Jefferson. We talked
about Justin Jefferson being a little worried. Now I'm terrified.
JJ McCarthy not sure if he's targeting him. They seem
to lock him down. There were some incomplete passes that
I wonder if another quarterback would have completed him. But
Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson have fallen off a cliff
since the quarterback change. Justin Fields, I mean, at one
point he had negative five passing yard and they had
fourteen points. I don't know how that's possible. Tes Johnson
could be a big winner if this Chris Godwin injury,
if he doesn't come back. Tes Johnson had a couple
of touchdowns and then the Steelers. My god, I was
pathetic last night, absolutely awful. If he had any Steelers
in fantasy, you are upset this morning, So all right,
let's bring in Steve Merrill. Steve, you got a lot,
but lots to do on this show. We gave you
a plethora of games. Was that the jetsiest thing ever? Yesterday.
Speaker 6: Well you were a little early still in early November.
But I think one of the best betting angles in
the NFL in December is to just play on those
nothing teams that have absolutely nothing to play for against
teams that have something to play for, and he just
get you get a couple points of line value, first
of all. And that's why fad in the public works
long term, is because the lines are inflated, and we
see that all the time. It was the Houston Texans
a couple of years ago. Did they won? I get
they would have gonna have the number one pick.
Speaker 4: They won.
Speaker 6: I think the final week Carolina lost and they get
Bryce Young. The Texans gets stroud. They make the playoffs
like a year later. So teams continue to play hard.
There's maybe one team that kind of quits on the season,
by the way, that might be not my Washington Commanders.
Our season win total is looking pretty good, Andy Lang,
What are they had? Eight losses?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 6: No, seven losses. I need them to get to eight
losses to cash. I think we're in pretty good shape.
What do you say?
Speaker 1: You're in great shape, my friend. You never want to
count the money before the bet cash is But I'm
pretty sure you can.
Speaker 6: It's so crazy. We talked about it last week. It's
like part of that handicap is that Daniels might get hurt.
I mean, I liked it even if you played healthy,
because I thought they were vastly overrated and they made
a huge jump. But then that was just icing on
the kike, and I don't want to say I want
to see him get hurt. I like Jaden Daniels, I
think the hell of a player. But that was somewhat predictable.
So yeah, that's why these season wins, you know, and
like Crackshid props can be great. Love what he said
about the end game betting. I've never liked it as well.
I've never messed with it. The main reason for me
is because of the delay and the thirty cent lines.
I had not heard that story about voiding winning bets.
That's awful. Does not surprise me. And also with the teasers,
we don't release them anymore because they've been priced out.
When I started thirty years ago in the late nineties,
you could get even money six point teasers, pretty easy pickings,
and even at minus won ten. For decades it was
a good deal. But now minus one thirty, minus one forty,
minus one fifty. The average better does not respect juice.
I used to love the off short days where you
get minus one oh five on both sides minus one
oh three. And what's crazy is nobody cares about that
and they'll lay thirty cent lines. And sports betting's really
changed now because of all this legalization.
Speaker 1: Well, let's get into a couple of games we're gonna start.
Let's start with a big one money night football, eager
Eagles versus Packers. It's going to be cold, but doesn't
look like there's precipitation or too much win. So what's
your breakdown on Eagles Packers months or monster game in
the NFC.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so Crack just talked about what the bookmaker said,
we're really public. On Sunday, I had the same information
I told you I faded the public video of the
Lions were the most public play this week, but I
did not want to fade them coming off a loss
against my Washington Commanders, who at a tailspin Buffalo Bills
were very public as well. We saw how that turned
out some of those other games. Seattle cashed yesterday as
a public side, but both Carolina and what's.
Speaker 4: The other one.
Speaker 6: I got it right here. The Colts culture six six
and a half. They went by six in overtime, so
that once again that inflated line because of the public
side made the difference. In the Germany game fade, the
public was nine and three the last two weeks, three
and two yesterday, so now twelve and five, and we
got one more public play remaining this week. And this
is the public dog of the week, and that's ding
Ding red flag alert. Philadelphia Eagles. Now they're not much
of a public dog about plus one to plus two
all week. This game might very well go off at
pick them, but they are still a public dog, and
it's very one sided. And I don't mind back in
the Green Bay Packers here. I still think they're one
of the best teams in the NFL. And had some
people comment in my free play videos and don't forget
click subscribe cook that bell for instance, alerts I do
all the Sunday Night Monday Night games. Gave you the
Chargers last night for free in my Sunday Night video.
And by the way, that was a best bet for
my clients. Sometimes these TV games make the best bet.
Card three and oh sweep on Sunday in the NFL
gave you a free play video on this one as
well for Monday Night Football. Also talked about it in
my Fade the Public video. And one thing I like
about fading public dogs, and one of the reasons it's
sixty seven percent this season on the blind and it's
worked for decades, is because you get a quality team.
Like I wasn't looking to fade the public with the
Commanders last yesterday, or in the Seattle game, or even
really with the Carolina game you were taking the Saints.
I don't like ugly teams, but we're getting a quality
team here in Green Bay. And yes they've lost twice
this year. Somebody commented in one of the videos, are
they really the best team in the league? If you
lose to Carolina and Cleveland? Well, look at the situational
set up in those two games. First of all, we
had a strong client best bet on the Browns back
in Week three. That also made the Fade the Public video,
as green Bay was a heavy public side. Green Bay
was coming off the big win against the Detroit Lions
to open the season, huge divisional win, and then that
Thursday night home game against the Commanders, who everyone thought
were good at the time except for me.
Speaker 4: I knew better.
Speaker 6: And then they had the sandwich spot because the following
week after Cleveland, they had the Sunday night game of Dallas.
Actually led most of that Cleveland game, but they came
up flat only scored ten points, and now looky here
flat spot. Last week against Carolina. They had the Sunday
night come from behind win against Pittsburgh on the road
against Aaron Rodgers, the look ahead to this Monday night
game against the Eagles, the Super Bowl champs, and they
laid another egg last week at home as a two
touchdown favorite. They only scored thirteen points against Carolina. So
it's really been a bad offensive shown in those two losses.
There are other six games this season. They have scored
twenty seven points or more in all six games, and
I think the Eagles defense is down to nots this year.
Fade the public if you want, but also think the
Packer team total over twenty three and a half makes
a lot of sense tonight. This Eagle defense is weaker
than last season. And let's just do the basic math here.
The Eagles on the season are giving up over twenty
three points a game. The Packers' offense is averageon was
twenty six points a game, and they've scored, as I said,
twenty seven or more in all six games that they
haven't lost this season. I lay Green Bay team total
over twenty three and a half for Monday Night Football
to not on Monday.
Speaker 1: All right, Steve, we got breaking news. If one of
the questions coming out of Week ten was will will
Brian Dayball be fired? The answer is yes. Now, question, Steve,
do you think he got fired because of the team's
performance and blowing leads in the fourth quarter? Do you
think he got fired because they kept running Jackson Dart
into the teeth of the defense and they finally got
him hurt.
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 1: If I was an owner, I'd be a lot more
mad about that.
Speaker 6: I think he got fired for routinely went into the
concussion tent. I thought that was the first red flags.
This guy was full energy.
Speaker 4: Man.
Speaker 6: I'm a little surprised he got a few weeks ago
when they especially when they beat the Eagles on Thursday
Night Football. Would never thought he'd be fired by like
the second week of November. It looked like they were
trending in the right direction. I agree with you on
the Jackson Dart situation. But the other thing is I
think they want to maybe get someone in there, an
offensive minded, young, like OC quarterback type guy. Because of
Jackson Dart, he does appear to maybe be the real deal.
He had a great preseason and he seems like a
pretty sharp kid as well. So my guess is, b
they're going to bring in an offensive minded head coach
here at some point in the future.
Speaker 1: Just how about a minded head coach.
Speaker 6: I don't disagree that guy's full energy and I respect
full energy and you know that. But he was like
getting kicked out of the concussionton in that Eagle game.
That was pretty comical.
Speaker 1: Yeah, both both stars are out now, I mean, both
these guys are getting hurt. Was about as predictable as
it gets. But come on, Jackson Dart, slide run out
of bounds, don't run.
Speaker 4: Into the way.
Speaker 6: But once again, going back to the Jayden Daniels situation, right,
that's why that was a predictable injury. And we talked
about it last week. You got a guy that's skinnier
than you and me running the ball every other play,
it's not gonna end. Well, we saw it with RG
three a decade ago. History doesn't always repeat, but it rhymes.
It rhymes.
Speaker 1: Let's move to college basketball at Mississippi State versus Iowa State.
I do not follow those teams. Educate me, what do
you know about these teams? And what are we doing
with this five and a half point spread one fifty
and a half total.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 6: So I always say it's a top twenty that should
be one of the better squads in the country this year.
And this is a neutral site, which is important. The
Sanford Pentagon which is in Siuex falls so unusual location,
a true neutral court for both teams. I mean maybe
I was State travels a little bit, but I don't know,
but I think it's a true neutral court. We see
no movement on the point spread. It opened five and
a half, it's holding five and a half. We have
seen some sharp money coming on the under in this one,
one fifty three down to one fifty one to fifty
and a half, So a little bit of sharp money
on the under. I think that makes sense basically being
the neutral site and maybe the sight lines. And I
also feel like Iowa State relies more on the three
point shot than Mississippi State does, so I actually lean
dog here. I think I would stay probably wins this
game by a basketer so, but line of looks inflated
to me. I would make the line around three or four.
Mississippi State also has a strong three point percentage defense,
and I think they match up well in this game,
so on the neutral court, unusual surroundings, I'd rather the
Mississippi State squad as an underdog in a pretty close game,
which I think has a better chance of scoring down
low interior defense. By the way, they have one of
the top twenty two point defenses in the nation based
on my ratings, and Iowa State might not be as
strong from three point range as they need to be,
so we've seen some sharp money in the under in
this one. But I think that also the matchup in
the situation favors Mississippi State as a live dog plus
five and a half once again neutral court in sue
X Falls. That's at eight o'clock Eastern tonight on Monday.
And don't forget if you want all my free I'm
I'm doing a ton of college basketball free play videos
right now. But if you want the free play videos
and when they do pop like this one, just click
subscribe on wager Talk TV and click that bell for
an instant alert. And I do post a lot of
basketball best bets and bonus free plays on my page,
Steve merrillwager Talk dot com, wt dot buz slash sm.
Speaker 1: All right, we got this is great. Lane Kiff into
the Dolphins. We're already predicting the next coach. Oh great,
Jeff Fisher, Oh oh my lord.
Speaker 6: Do you think Wayne Kiffin would go back to the NFL.
I can't imagine.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 6: Anything's possible, but not likely.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say unlikely. I think he kind of
likes where he's at right now. All right, let's go
to the NBA Bucks Mavericks. Mavericks team is kind of interesting.
I thought the expectations were a little too high for
this team without Kyrie Irving. I mean, they don't have
a point guard. They just don't like they're trying to
have Cooper Flag do this. That's not what he does.
I think they're I think they're clunky, but I think
they'll get better in this Bucks team. I don't know
if you've watched Giannis. This guy is on a mission
this year. He's like, he's like kind of that point
where he's unstoppable. It kind of comes and goes, but
he looks absolutely insane right now. How do you break
down this Bucks Mavericks game?
Speaker 6: Yeah, welcome to the NBA. As always, load management, players questionable,
and a lot of uncertainty in this game tonight at
eight forty eastern Milwaukee and Dallas. As of the twelve
thirty eastern NBA updated injury Report, Bucks have yet to
submit the Davis injury His listen is questionable. For the Mavericks,
Kyrie Erwin remains out lively doubtful. This has been a
short handed team all season, that's one of the reads,
and they're off to a three and seven straight up start.
But while the Bucks haven't released their injury report, and
Giannis has been playing incredible this year, this is a
back to back situation as the Bucks last night had
to play in Houston. I believe he logged around thirty
six minutes I'm sorry a home game against Houston. Now
they travel without rest to Dallas and they're playing, by
the way, their third game and four nights after beating
the Bulls on Friday, lost at home to Houston. I
haven't seen the injury report yet, but I would not
be shocked if Giannis is on. It are limited at
some point, so keep an eye on it. The Betty
markets have gone from bucks two and a half Road
Favorite down to two at some of the Sharper books,
so I think they're starting to indicate that might be
the case. I'm not going to play the guessing game.
Whether Giannis is in, Anthony Davis is in, he's questionable.
But if either one of them misses, there is some
size missing down low and we could see a little
bit of a track meet here, and I actually think
the over could be in play because of that. This
total open two thirty one and a half. It's down
to two twenty nine and a half now some of
the Sharper books that we're still holding two thirty. Pinnacle
is still holding the two thirty. Keep it on the
injury report. I'm doing this, you know, mid afternoon for
you to get it out as a free opinion, free information.
But I would lean over to twenty nine and a
half in this game, and if Davis misses, I actually
like it a little bit more because he's a good
defensive presence down low and we all know how it works.
If one of the stars is out of the last minute.
You probably come in on Milwaukie at an underdog price
maybe at that point and the over. It's just amazing
how that works in the NBA. But I do think
the Greek could be a little limited tonight after third
game and four nights no rest and playing a lot
yesterday against Houston, We'll look for a little bit of
an up and down track meet and there's some small
ball over to twenty nine and a half between the
Bucks and Mavericks tonight on Monday.
Speaker 1: Someone in our chat a while back said that they
were going to track when a star gets gets ruled out,
how many times did they cover? Because the markets just
completely overreact and then the guy that comes into sub
for him, the other team's not ready, there's a letdown.
The guy's motivated, so you're getting his best correct. It'd
be really really interesting.
Speaker 6: Nandy, real quick on that. I actually coming into the
NBA season this year, that was my game plan to
just blindly play. I've tracked it for a few years.
It's been sixty seven percent the last few seasons. It's
got a few different catalysts you have to put. First
of all, I think it really has to be somewhat sudden.
It has to be like the day of and it
has to be the first game. And there's reasons for
that because first of all, it catches the other team
off guard. They haven't game plan necessary for the other guys.
And it does, like you say, give kind of a
quick spark to the locker room.
Speaker 4: I believe.
Speaker 6: And these are all college all Americans for the most part.
They can score in their sleep, and it does work.
The problem is, as for my clients at wager Talk,
I'm putting my plays out right around now, like around
noon Eastern. It's very difficult to come back at five
or six o'clock at night, two hours before the game
and tell people, hey, go play this. So that's why
it's really hard to do it. But as a sport's
better out there. This is a way to build your
bank roll. Don't be afraid to play those teams. And
also the reason it works is because the lines usually
get shifted five, six, seven points and it doesn't even
come close. These teams went outright. Sometimes it's put part
of it on the money line at plus money. It's
a great kind of fade the public mentality that continues
to work, and it will continue to work when the
lines get adjusted, so it's something that has not been
accounted for by the benny markets.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, Steve Merral, what do you have up for everyone
at wager Talk.
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Speaker 1: Great work Steve Meryll breakdowns. Thank you very much and
as always, Steve crushes it with that fade the public video.
One of the best videos that we have on the website.
And you can get notified when he releases that video
if you subscribe to the channel. We're up almost to
a quarter of a million subscribers. What are you waiting for?
If you haven't subscribed, please subscribe to the channel. That
way you get all notifications when we go live. Hit
the like button as well. All right, let's do a
slew of free place here. Let's go all around the
world and then let's break down the cavaliers at the heat.
We're gonna go to a player prop for tonight Packers Eagles,
Josh Jacobs over two and a half receptions. He's gone
over this in five out of the last six games.
He's getting four targets in those games for whatever reason,
he's involved in the passing game. So we'll take us
over to and a half receptions. Ralph Michael Special. We're
going with another blowout yukon minus thirty three and a
half against Columbia. Yukon coming off a one ten forty
seven win against UMass Lowell, Columbia won their first game
of the season. They beat a team called New Haven
that is a team that is the number three hundred
and sixty four ranked Ken Palm team. So Ralph likes
the Yukon to lay the wood tonight. And then we
go to the NBA Suns Pelicans. Roy O'Neil over two
and a half made three point news. He's gone over
in eight out of ten games this season. He's averaging
eight point three three point attempts and he shooting forty
three point four percent. Those numbers hold up tonight, He's
gonna go over again. And someone already mentioned the chat
chat how bad the Pelicans are twenty third and three
point defense. So he's played twenty nine minutes per game,
should get plenty of looks. All right, let's go break
down the Cavaliers and Heat, real quick, Cavaliers and Heat.
We have a monster total in this one of two
forty seven and a half. Cleveland is minus seven and
a half. You can find some minus eights out there.
Let's go over some stats here and I'll tell you why.
I like the heat to cover this spread. And then
I'll give you some player props. Miami is number one
in pace, Cleveland's number four. Miami number nine in all
offensive efficiency, slightly better than Cleveland. Cleveland comes in at twelve.
And believe it or not, Miami a little better on defense.
Defensive efficiency number six in the league. Cleveland is number nine.
Miami just this is just what Miami does. They go
get Norm Powell. Norm Powell's giving him twenty three points
a night. BAM's giving him twenty. Andrew Wiggins looks not
like the elite Andrew Wiggins, but he's giving them seven
to points a night. And Hawkes coming off the bench
just a monster, seventeen to seven and five coming off
the bench. So they've got players. Spolster continues to be
one of the best coaches in the league. Darius Garland
is back for Cleveland. He shook off the rust in
his first game, played twenty eight minutes. In the second game,
had twenty points. And Donovan Mitchell is having a big season.
He's averaging over thirty points. But Miami is second best
in defending point guards. Here's the key. This is why
I like Miami. This Miami Heat. Team is four to
zero at home, and I don't think they've won a
road game, so they love playing at home, and Calves
are only three and two on the road. Calves could
win this and not cover. This number is too big.
I'm gonna take the Miami Heat and the points. If
you're looking for some player props, Sam Merrill over nine
and a half points. This is a client play under
the last game, but he went over the first six
games of the season. He's shooting fifty seven percent from
the field. He is lights out from three pointers, so
we'll take his over nine and a half points. Lonzo
Ball over seven and a half rebounds plus assists. This
is pretty easy. He's gone over every game this season,
nine point four potential assists, seven point five rebound chances.
And Nikola Yovic under twelve and a half points. He's
coming off a twenty nine point game. Don't be fooled
by that. Before that, he had twelve plus points one
time this season. NBA and NHL Prop Special is up
sixty nine dollars and gets you seven days of props.
This is how I build bank roll. We talk about
it all the time. We're up thirteen units just in
the month of November. We're fifteen and eight to start
the NBA season. We're number one in NBA props the
last two seasons. You guys hear me talk about all
the time. We got five plays that are up tonight,
so you want to use this specially, you're gonna get
the week started off with three NBA plays and to
NHL plays that is up at wager talk dot com.
Get there quicker with shortcut wt dot buzz slash al
All right, guys, great show. I know we went a
little a long, but tons of great information, good discussion,
and thank you to you guys in the chat. Please
hit the like button. I know someone asked about asking
Ralph Michael if he can do a chart. I will
message Ralph right now and see if he can pull
that off for you again. Leaving the comments section, was
that the jetsiest thing you've ever seen? Yesterday? We're gonna
be back tomorrow, same time, newon eastern, nine am Pacific.
We have a big Monday night football game. Can't wait
to see if we cash them tickets in that one.
Look on your bets tonight. Take care