Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is Tuesday. It's time
for total bases. Brian made his way back across the country.
He's back in Las Vegas. It's actually did you sleep?
Have you slept at all? Is what we want to
know before we get the show going.
Speaker 2: I may have gotten four hours. Yeah, it's been. I'm
to the point anymore where I love to travel, but
I hate to fly, especially if it's cross country. I
can't imagine when when Brandon goes from Japan to Arizona
along of a flight that is it's it's crazy. I
don't think I could ever do it.
Speaker 1: I also, I will say this, though I have a
much easier time going to the West Coast. Anytime I
come home from the West Coast usually is when it
really gets me.
Speaker 3: So at any rate, we're all here.
Speaker 1: There's fifteen Major League Baseball games to break down today,
and we're going to do that for the next hour,
like we do every day right here on Wager Talk TV.
We start in the Lone Star State. This is a
kind of a kind of an important game tonight. We've
got America's team, the New York Yankees. I don't know
if that's America's team. I just feel like, but the
New York Yankees. They're taking on the Houston Astros, two
teams that are in battles in their respective divisions, but
probably gonna both be in the playoffs this year as
the American League sort of playoff picture you know, I
guess has taken shape already. So let's go to Brian
Leonard looks like Freed and Valdez Yankees Astros.
Speaker 3: How you seeing this one?
Speaker 2: Well, they're not America's team to me because I'm from
Claveland and the Yankees always took all of our best
players that we couldn't afford, So they've been my most
hated team this as a child. But hey, if I
was a Yankees fan, I'd be loving it.
Speaker 1: So, Brian, do you think there's more Yankee haters in
the country or Yankee fans?
Speaker 2: I would say haters because they've been so good for
so long. I sort of like the Patriots when the
Patriots were what they were doing in the NFL. Either
love the Patriots Patriots or he hated them, And it's
similar to Dallas Cowboys. Also, Colin haters all day. I
think I agree. Collin says haters all day. The chat
is saying fire Boone. See I know how to get
the chat going.
Speaker 1: Now we're going here, so Yankees, Ashtar, I saw Boone
was at the game last night.
Speaker 3: I think did I see that correctly? I think he
was at the football game.
Speaker 2: Was he Well, it's good that he spent his time
doing something productive because he's not doing it as a manager.
I can't believe they got that to your expression. But anyway,
let's get back to the what's important as right now. Yeah,
the Yankees are at home or excuse me, on the road.
Max Frede against Cramerveldes, both a lefties, and we've got
the Yankees about one fourteenth favorite right now, totals either
seven and a half to the over or eight to
the under. Why don't you take a look at this one,
Max fred Other than that one part of the season
where I think I think he might have been dealing
with blisters or something, but he's been pretty good since then.
But he did go three or four starts where he
really struggled. Right now, three point oh six cra three
point seven three expected, one point one one whip. Now,
when I talk about expecting him being so far down,
go back to the last you know, what is it
the last three years or four years and every year
six years straight now where he has beaten his expected numbers.
So he's doing something that that they're not picking up
in anybody's programs regarding that. But he's been very good.
His chase rate is down only in the thirty six
percent ofle but he's a very solid pitcher, and he
throws seven pitches. Basically a lot of a lot of
JUNKET throws up there, which is fine. That's what I like.
And he's been very good, and the Yankees bullpen has
been pretty good shape right now. Fremer Valdez recently came
back from entry three point one a DRA three point
seventh three expected one point one nine whip. He's also
a guy they expected DRA is always higher than what
his numbers are going all the way back to a
second season at twenty nineteen. So these are two guys
that always perform better than their metrics. So the first
thing I look at there is where these two get together.
Should I play the under Well, you've got does ninety
eighth percent of and grob all percent. He does give
up home runs. Usually when you take a look at
teams like the Yankees here they're known for their bats,
but the Yankees right now are They're a big home
run team, and they're playing a team that or at
least the starting pitchers out to give home runs. And
you've got Houston team who has been shut out how
many games in the last month. I mean, their offense
just has not done well. If you can still get
an eight out there, and I see minus fifteen or so,
I think that's not a bad bet Houston and the
Yankees under I think both these starting pitchers will have
some success.
Speaker 4: Yeah, guys, had a good day yesterday. I couldn't believe
the line for the Giants against the Rockies yesterday, probably
because Tang was unproven. That was my only MLB playing
at one and I just went three and one in
Asian Baseball. So looking good right now. Go to our
pages at wager talk dot com and see what we
got up. It's five dollars Tuesday, so I'm sure all
three of us will have a five dollars play and
a free play as well. Mine's already up. Regarding this game,
these are two well together organizations run organizations. Yankees have
struggled a bit, but actually the Astros were the ones
who were struggling at the plate until the last couple
of games. Last couple of games are starting to catch on.
But like five games before that, I think they scored
like three runs in five games. They're just cold as ice.
Now they're heating up a little bit. The first thing
that jumps out when you look at this matchup is, wow,
we got two really good pictures here, But if you
look at how they do against the batters they're facing today,
not so good. Valdez has struggled against these batters in
his career for a three hundred average against in an
eight twenty nine OPS against, and that's eighty at bats
against a good sample size. Freed has struggled as well,
not quite as bad against the Astro batters that he's
facing today, ninety seven at bats against, two ninety nine
average and a seven to sixty OPS so not very
good actually, but still Freed's numbers are a little better
than Valdez's against the batters he's facing. I have these
two starting pictures on a curve of thirty ranked dead even.
I got the bullpens ranked close to dead even. But
the real discrepancy I see here two things. Number One,
Yankees are batting a lot better than the Astros right
now in current and also Max Fried's walk ratio is
within an acceptable range, but Valdez is his walks to
strikeout ratio is not very good fifty three, and I
like I like people to be in the I like
pictures to be in the thirty to forty percent range.
He's walking fifty three percent of the batters that he
strikes out. It's too high. I think it's Yankees or nothing.
But I'm not going to play it because I think
that's just the discrepancy between these two teams is just
too slim for me to play it. So I won't
be playing it muted.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Dogs were getting after it. Sorry about that.
Two things what Titan Set says, Yeah, he was at
n see he was, and he.
Speaker 1: Was decked out in North Carolina. I wonder if he's
getting blamed for that. Yeah, I wonder if he's getting
blamed for their loss. You know, he's on the you know,
he's on the field North Carolina gear they got killed
last night, So maybe they're blaming Aaron Boone for that.
The second thing TV, Yeah, I was on the Giants
yesterday too, got him at like minus one thirty.
Speaker 3: Could couldn't believe that. And I have in MLB yesterday,
So yeah, I'm pretty.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And you're saying, I think they just didn't really understand
how to price Tang and he ended up being pretty good.
So Giants and Mets for me yesterday, hopefully we can
get it going again today. Uh for this game right here,
I'm just gonna kind of refer back to my numbers
I have. I have the Yankees, you know, maybe a
slight edge on the number. I think that probably where
it's priced in the minus one ten minus fifteen range
is fair as far as like you know, you come
into this game. My gut tells me the Yankees.
Speaker 3: Could put a little pressure on Toronto, like it just
forget forget this game for a second, Like you know,
even though they lost their last game, but the Blue
Jays losing in the fashion they did yesterday, that should
certainly get you know, that should certainly get the Yankees'
juices flowing two and a half back now in that
division after yesterday's loss, And.
Speaker 1: I know I gotten. I was arguing with people on
Twitter over the weekend. I still think the Astros choke
this division away. I still think the Mariners have it
in the tank. I think the Mariners are a better team,
and so like, I'm certainly coming into this series looking
for a place to sort of play the Yankees and
fade Houston.
Speaker 3: I don't mind it being here.
Speaker 1: Like I'm still higher on Freed long term than Valdez,
So like, I'm not gonna I guess I'm not gonna
waste a ton of time on this one because I
don't I don't have a really like super strong conviction
about this game, but I will just say in general,
in this series, I kind of would like to find
a place to play the Yankees. I just like the
way that the Yankees are trending right now, and I
think they're hungry. I think the Blue Jays have sort
of reignited the flame a little bit. Like Brian said,
they know they're gonna be in the playoffs. You pretty
much know, like without unless there's like a big time collapse,
you pretty much know your six playoff teams in the
American League. But the Yankees have a real shot to
catch the Blue Jays, and three four weeks ago, I
just did not think that that was going to be
the case, I thought the Blue Jays were gonna run
away with this division. I know they're seven and three.
You got the Yankees seven and three in their last
ten games right now. Yankees run differential one thirty four
plus one thirty four. It's one of the best marks
in Major League Baseball. Blue Jay's only fifty five. I
don't know how much you read into that, but maybe
this Yankees team is a little bit better than we
gave them credit for, and maybe they've just cleaned it
up a little bit, because remember, I don't think they
were ever a bad team. They were just making a
lot of play like mistakes costing them games. Haven't done
it as much lately. Guess it doesn't surprise me that
they're winning at this rate. So a lean toward the Yankees.
Aaron Pauling says, noteworthy, Houston is six and one straight
up as a home dog this season. Obviously small sample size,
but worth pointing out. I don't like Freed, but I
do love Valdez, especially at home. Yeah, I think it's
all very solid point. I don't think I'll have anything
in this one, but it's certainly a big game and
probably gonna be.
Speaker 3: A good one. To watch. Let's go to the next game.
Let's go to the next game here. Let's see.
Speaker 1: Jose Perez says he likes McLean kys today, So I
am assuming he's talking about the Mets.
Speaker 3: Mets got it done for me yesterday. I was that
was that game turned into a total slug fest. Mets
ended up winning ten to eight. No one could get out. Today.
It is Nolan MacLean who has been tremendous.
Speaker 1: I think Brian Leonard it's safe to say he's exceeded
expectations since his call up, with his eer currently under one.
And I'm guessing the Tigers, is Gibson Long actually listed?
Speaker 3: I think he's listed right, Sorry, Gypson Long. So he
was one of those guys yesterday.
Speaker 1: I said the Tigers were gonna expand their roster, They're
gonna kind of spread some innings around, and one of
those guys is gonna get some of those is Sawyer
Gibson Long, who's been down at Toledo Mets Tigers here.
McLean has been tremendous. Brian, are you gonna bet against him?
Are you gonna keep riding him? Or is there no
way into this game for you?
Speaker 2: Well? People were asking in the chat why he was
a one forty favorite. Well, he's no longer a one
forty favor. That's a good thing. He's down to one
twenty five and a lot of the sharp books out there,
which means that the guys who bet for a living
are jumping on going against him, which kind of surprises
me because if I wanted to go against him, I
think I would wait till later in the day because
he's got so many fans right now and a lot
of people are looking to bet him that they maybe
they do know something we don't. I don't know. Maybe
it's maybe they know what the lineup is going to
be today. But yeah, McLean against Gipson long, we've got
to mets it about yeah, twenty seven right now overall,
and we've got eight and a half to the over
twenty when take a look at mcleany's been nothing but
unbelievable so far zero point oh excuse me, zero point
eight nine now era expected Era two point five eights.
So obviously there's a lot of luck involved, especially you
go on twenty innings and you got a era under
one is a rookie, but his whip is aero point
six y nine. He's been fantastic that way. He's only
pitched twenty innings, so a lot of his numbers from
the advanced metric haven't He hasn't thrown enough pitches yet
for to be really meaningful. But I will say his
heart hit rate, he's he's getting hit a little bit,
and he's average actual velocity, so we can see a
blow up at any time. That said, this is a
guy that comes in with six different pitches as a rookie.
He's twenty four years old. I think he's got a
great career ahead of him. I've been very impressed, but
he is pitching over his head at this point. Gibson
long guy that I've liked for a long time. You know,
two seasons. He's twenty twenty three through twenty innings and
twenty twenty four. I believe it was an injury prone
year so he didn't play at all. And then in
twenty twenty five he's got throwing twenty five innings so far.
He's got great extension ninety seventh percentile, doesn't walk many batters.
He's very good in the chase rate, but he's not
gonna beat you with his fastball. He's only the twentieth
percentile in fastball velocity, and that's still even though he
spreads out his five pitches pretty well, he still throws
his fourth seamer more than anybody or any of his
other pitches. He only throws at ninety two point nine.
So he's more of a junk ball type of pitcher.
But I like those kind of guys, and I think
he is. I'm glad he's a back on the Tigers roster.
He's gonna help this team. He's a good pitcher. He
just has had problems with injuries so far. So when
I take a look at these two, as I mentioned,
the line basically won twenty seven and eight and a
half to the over somewhat like the under here. This
is a good pitching ballpark. McLean has been a great
picture so far. Although I think I think the best
of what we have seen out of us probably already happened.
He's going to have some regression along. Don't know how
long he's going to go. I haven't read through that
as of yet, but Detroit has struggled lightly, but this
is still the playoff team. They're going to the playoffs
and there they We've seen him earlier in the year
a lot of people thought they were the best team
in baseball. This is what happens. That's why they throw
play one hundred sixty two games, like both the pictures.
But I am a little bit afraid of McLean's regression,
so slightly with Detroit, but don't think i'll get there.
Speaker 4: So this is a weird one. Five dollars Tuesday, guys,
grab our five dollars place. This is a weird one because, yeah,
McLean's been very impressive, but the sample size is small,
so do you trust it or not? Is the question
and the original question from Jose who's always watching our show.
We appreciate you, Jose. I'll give you my projection on
his ks it's seven point zero, but he's only started
three games, so I don't really know if I can
trust the sample size. Gibson Long is a weird, weird
stat here. His er is a little bit bloated four
point three, but his whip is amazing one oh four.
So don't really know what to make of him. But
what I do know is by looking over his starts
this season, every time he goes into the fifth inning,
he gives up at least three runs. That's what I
do know the Mets. The Mets are ranked top ten
in every stat that I have, bullpen, starting pitcher, batting,
every expected stat that I see, they're top ten in everything.
I got. The Tigers lineup right now ranked twenty one
and they're bullpen ranked fifteen, So kind of hard to
go against McClain here. In my opinion. The thing is
Gibson Long is kind of a an factor because it's
really erratic. I don't think he's an erratic pitcher, but
the way they're using him is really erratic. So I
don't really know what to expect from him. But I
do know the Mets are just clubbing right now, number
one lineup in baseball in current form, and the Tigers
are not, So it would be Mets or nothing for me.
I'm gonna look at McLean's outs recorded. If it's sixteen
or seventeen, I'll definitely take an over on that because
they're letting him go ninety one, ninety four, ninety five
pitches increasingly longer. They'll probably rope him in under one hundred,
but still he's an extremely efficient pitcher. He's pitching into
the sixth seventh inning on ninety pitches. That's very efficient,
so I'll look at that as well.
Speaker 1: This is the top one for me because I feel
like I was way ahead of the curve on McClean
and he's been very, very good. But I also like,
I mean, I watched this guy pitch. I probably went
to three of his starts Syracuse this year. Like he's
not immortal, Like he got hit in the miners at times.
So like, while this run has been extremely impressive, and
I really do think that like you're seeing what his
ceiling can be and it's it's I mean, he is
going to be a tremendous pitcher. Kind of reminds me
of like Matt Harvey when the Mets called him up
and he went on that.
Speaker 3: Tear as a rookie. But but the thing is, like,
is the guy unhittable?
Speaker 1: No, I mean I was at games that that he
gave up some hard hit and gave up some runs
in the minors. So someone someone's probably gonna get to
him at some point.
Speaker 3: Very well, could be on the road in Detroit.
Speaker 1: You never know, But I do think it's worth like
for me, I have to at least acknowledge, like, Okay,
this guy is exactly what I thought he could be,
and do I want to then turn around and like
potentially cost myself money by like betting against that, Like
I'd be pretty upset with myself. I feel like if
I turned around took Detroit and he comes out and
pitches well, and I'm just like, yeah, I'm just saying
that's where I am personally, because I feel like there
was so far ahead of the curve on McClay.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I don't want to play against Detroit here because I
really like Sawyer Gibson Long. I actually think Sawyer Gibson
Long will be on the Tiger's playoff roster, and I
think he's probably one of the better pitchers on this
team right now if you look at like their whole
list of pitchers. And that's the thing I was talking
about yesterday with the Tigers. The Mets really cooked through
some bullpen yesterday to win that game ten to eight.
The Tigers are just rotating guys in like they're just
gonna come back with a whole series of different pitchers
today because again they're eight games, eight and a.
Speaker 3: Half games in the lead, nine games in the lead
in their division. So you're not gonna see the Tigers
have quote unquote bullpen usage problems from day to day
because they're not gonna pitch anyone back to back.
Speaker 1: That's just not how they're gonna manage the game. It's
gonna be Sawyer getson long, it's gonna be all relievers
that didn't throw yesterday.
Speaker 3: So that makes me like Detroit.
Speaker 1: The other thing that makes me like Detroit here, you know,
you got to understand, Like I think Brian talked about
Gibson long coming into the season, he was hurt, He
didn't he didn't start his season until May when he
was going through rehab. He didn't make his first appearance
for the Tigers until June fourth, and it was kind
of clear at that time that he he wasn't really
ready yet. Maybe he didn't have a long enough spring.
But that first month of June when he was up,
he wasn't great, and then he got hurt again. So like,
this is a guy that started his season late, then
got hurt again a second time, and he spent the
entire month of August down at Toledo. But this time,
or with the exception of one one outing for the Tigers,
this time around, he's been really really good though, so
he looks like he's not hurt anymore because the last
month with one one appearance in Detroit, So this is
August for Sorrier. Gibson Long a two six five ERA,
a zero zero nine to four width, and a one
ninety seven batting average against. That's kind of what I
expected from Gibson Long coming into this season. So I'm
not betting against him either right now. Does it mean
you bet the under? I don't know, because that eight
and a half maybe, but like I don't know if
I want to, like tempt I don't know if I
want to take it under and potentially had the Mets bullpen,
like if they're a little bit behind, they may use
their depth arms today because they know they need to
like look forward and set themselves up for a potential
win tomorrow. I think if I had to play this,
it'd be Tigers one plus one and a half, and
I do so reluctantly knowing that if I run into
a hot Nolan MacLean, I might lose again. But Tiger's
plus one and a half makes sense, and maybe Tiger's
on that plus money just from a value standpoint, go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 2: Yeah, First off, regarding the bullpen for the Mets. They
used six of their best guys yesterday and Brandon Wdell,
who they called off from Triple A, he threw fifty
eight pitches on Sunday, so he won't be available now.
These guys, none of them throw throw over fifteen pitches,
so they'll be available up at some of them, like
Diaz's pitched to the last three days. Rogers the same way,
and in fact two other players have been the same.
As for the hitting, because Brandon mentioned the Mets, they're
a number one one sixty four WRC plus. But when
you look on fanographs and they haven't broken down to
they rate the players based on the last seven days
in Major League Baseball to show you how hot they are.
This is the top four hitters for the Mets in
the lineup. This is the last seven days in all
of Major League Baseball. Lind Or ranks nineteenth, Soto number one,
Alonso number nine, Nemo number six, and they follow that
up with Bientos at fifty four. So the top of
this bullpen, or excuse me, the top of this lineup
is as hot as it possibly be. That's the only
concern I have about playing Detroit is you've got all
these guys in conjunction, all in the lineup together, all
hit the hell out of the ball. Maybe we look for, uh,
maybe maybe the Mets to not score in the second
inning or something like that. On doing alldo a lot
of those things. But yeah, I think if Long can
get out of that first inning, I think they're in
pretty good shape for to try. But that's gonna be
a tough witch start the game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and unless they make unless they make another roster
move today, it looks like it's gonna be. Justin Hagenman
is likely the guy that's going to pitch, probably a
bulk type role, even if the tie leverage after after McLain,
because they added him to the roster yesterday. Now, his
numbers at the big league level have been really good
this year, and in a small sample size. Problem is
he hasn't pitched in the He hasn't pitched in the
big since since August twelfth. Last couple outings at Syracuse
have not been as good, So I think that would
be I don't know that, like just because he has
like a couple of good outings that for the Mets
this year and type starts, I'm not sure that that
I'd be super excited about getting Hagenman from like the
sixth to the eighth inning in this game, which is
like I can just about guarantee what the Mets are
going to try to do. They're gonna try to hope
Nolan McLain has his best stuff.
Speaker 1: If it's gonna be Hagenman for a couple of innings,
and then if they are in position to win, they
might just ask a Diaz or someone to like go
out and it's like, hey, seasons on the line, we
need you to just get three outs. But I think
that's what you're gonna see out of the Mets both
and today. On the flip side, if they're trailing, I
think you can expect Hagenman to finish the game. That's
not good for an under my opinion, because again he's
been blown up a couple of times at Syracuse last
a couple of times out. So I have no interest
in the total because I think you could see some
late runs here Tigers are passed.
Speaker 3: I'll leave I'll leave it at that. That's a that's
another one too tough, two very interesting games to start
things off. But I knew they I knew they would
create big talking points on the show. So we pete
that the show loves to talk to and seems to
love to talk Yankees. So he had to get those two.
Get those two out of the way, let's see if
we can find something that's actually worth playing here. Heading
back to the chat, all right, Danzo.
Speaker 1: He says, I told you yesterday the Brewers last, same
reason the Padres. Oh, so he's kind of pointing out,
ye have favorites on the holiday type days.
Speaker 3: Struggle. I don't know if what there is to that.
Speaker 1: I think it's just like I think favorites this time
a year a little bit struggle, because Brian, do you
think the grind of one hundred and sixty two games
by this point in the years is somewhat of an equalizer?
Is that why we're seeing some of these favorites drop games.
I'm just trying to sort of add something like actionable
to the comment that was made.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't excuse me. All the teams that are
fighting for the playoffs, they've been fighting hard and now
they're in the position where they will make the playoffs
or they won't. So if you get the teams that
are going to make the playoffs, I would expect them
to struggle the rest of the way because they're not
going to need to play the starters as often and
you're going to get more of a chance to to
go against weaker lineups. In that regard, a lot of
the teams that are out of the playoffs, they haven't
had those intense innings, especially from a pitching staff where
they you know, they're they're not in these games, like
take a look at like Houston. Their offense has been
struggling for so long. They've got to win these games
three to two. So there's a lot of pressure on
the on the bullpens and the pitchers for those teams
because they're in it every day. But you get a
team the Angels, some other teams, you know, the A's
that they haven't been in the playoff race for most
of the season or fall of the season, and they
don't have to worry about that. They they're they're they've
got less high impact innings on their starters and their bullpens.
So those are teams that I'm looking to play on
as the season goes on here and for the Holiday.
That's the first time I've ever heard that, so I
don't have any information on that.
Speaker 4: You know, these guys don't know that it's a holiday.
These guys are in such a grind. They don't know
Labor Day, Memorial Day. The only holidays they know is
the holidays that are on the off season because to them,
it's road or home. Road or home. They don't they
don't know it's Labor Day. They don't care. So even
the bad teams who are out of the playoffs, they're
trying there thinking about next year's contract. These guys are
human beings. They want to keep their job. The average
employment in MLB is is less than seven years. It's
probably less than six years. So these guys want to
want a contract, you know. I think the grind that
is an equalizer towards the very very end of the
season among teams that are in the same situations. But
good teams and bad teams, I don't know if there's
there's a lot of difference as far as games played.
Speaker 1: Just to wrap up his comment, I will say this,
like having having to play a bunch of day games
on a Monday is certainly not what these teams typically do.
Like Monday oftentimes is either a night game or a
travel day, so like that definitely could have something to it.
You had a lot of teams maybe playing a second
day game. It was a weird scheduling spot because how
often do you see Major League Baseball teams playing day games?
Afternoon games on a Monday doesn't happen very often, So
you know, might maybe something to that. I will sort
of stay on this same topic here and go to
a game that Travis acts asked about. I know who
he likes here because he commented on our replay yesterday,
which again that's always up on the wager Talk YouTube channel,
So go drop a comment.
Speaker 3: We'll try to get to it in the show. I
know Travis is looking at the Pirates today. So back
to Brian Leonard, this is kind of fits that dichotomy
of the Dodgers. They're in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Whether they're gonna win their division or not still to
be determined, but they're in against a team that's been
out for a long time.
Speaker 3: Is there you know what? Is there enough of an
equalizer here to look toward the Pirates? Is the question?
Dodgers Pirates at PNC Park tonight.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I fully understand where he's going on this, and
he's been a great contributor to the to our program.
I really appreciate it. It goes in after on the replay
and talks a lot about that kind of stuff. So
we really appreciate him being a member. A lot of
great guys out there, a lot of your fellow sports
betters out there. We really appreciate Kershaw. Lefty on the
road with Kik going for Pittsburgh, and we're looking at
about a one one sixty five for the Dodgers in
eight and a half to the under here. Clayton Kershaw
has now got eighty eight innings on the season after
only having thirty last year. Twenty twenty three finished with
one thirty one. Uh, he's been really good this year.
See he's surprised me based on his outputs point six
ARA but expected three point eight one whip one point
one point five, barrel rate ninety fourth percentile, walk grade
eighty fifth, ground ball right eighty fifth. Those are pretty good.
But when you take a look at the actual pitch
is thrown, do you have some concern? Fastball velocity second percentile.
We knew that was going to happen. The guy's thirty
seven years old. He's thrown over twenty eight hundred Major
League ginnings. He throws the four seamer thirty five percent
of the time at eighty nine miles an hour normal
left he's are at ninety three point one. So he's
got to beat him from other way, and he's not
doing it from his fastball. His strikeout percentage, he's only
in the eleventh percentile part hit rate twenty fifth. He's
been avoiding that a lot because he's just a smart
guy and he's a veteran pitcher. But he's pitching over
his head. He's pitched over his head all season long.
I'm sure they may use him come to playoffs, maybe
because he's struggled in the playoffs in the past. I
hope they give him a chance to start because I
small sample size if you ask me, but even coming
out of the bullpen, I think that would be pretty
impressive for him. Carmen Maltinski three point eight sixty ra
four point four to four expected one point three to
two whip a little bit high there. It's fastball velocity
is pretty good seventy six percentile walker eight seventy eighth,
barrel rate seventy three. He has been pretty good for
the Pirates He's only thrown eighty four innings on the season,
but it's gradually gone up fifty last year, thirty six
the year before. Because of Pittsburgh's success with the stars
they've had and all the talent they've gotten. After all
these years of being lousy, this guy's being overshadowed. He's
not that bad of a pitcher. And so I'm kind
of in the agreement that there's, yes, there may be
a little bit value here on the home underdog Pirates
looking to fate Kershaw slately and with the Dodgers we
talked about that before, where they play divisional rivals, Yeah,
those are important games. When they play other teams like
the Pirates or go to the American League, not as much,
so I could say I won't be evolved, but I
fully understand why anybody would want to take the Pirates
here that you can get those upwards of or excuse me,
plus one fifty in some places, but basically a one
forty in that range not a bad bet on the Pirates.
Speaker 4: So looking through this game, one thing strikes me. Milazinski
in his last nineteen starts has not thrown one pitch
in the fifth inning. So I would take a look
at that and say, okay, well, if he's backed by
a terrible bullpen, let's take the other team's team total.
So I run the numbers, and Pittsburgh's bullpen is ranked
six in MLB in current form, So they're performing really well.
I'm not saying they're the six most talented bullpen. I'm
saying that in the last current form, last month's week
ten days, performing really well. The Dodgers' bullpen is not
their rank sixteen according to my numbers. One note on Kershaw,
he's allowed what he's allowed four earned runs in his
last six starts. He's pitching amazing, but yeah, how long
is it going to last? And he's gone He's finishing
five innings in almost every start, so how long is
it going to last? And also Brian mentioned they do
want to leverage him in the playoffs, so they might
want to they might want to pull him early to
rest him a little bit, you know, I mean, make
it real simple. We got a sixty one win team
against a seventy eight win team, so obviously the seventy
eight win team is more talented. I don't think anyone's
going to argue that. So the cerebral me says, you
gotta bet the Dodgers, but run the numbers. The Pirates
are are performing better at almost every statistic, including including hitting,
which is amazing. I got the Pirates in the current
forum ranked thirteen in hitting, or I got the Dodgers
rank twenty two. A lot of that has to do
with the competition that they've been facing, and if they
have one game where they score thirteen runs, it's going
to skew the stats a little bit, but overall, the
Pirates are better than plus one point fifty. I agree
with Brian here. I'm not gonna bet it, though, No way,
no way am I going to take a what are
they sixty one win team over seventy eight win team?
No way? And the way Kershaw's pitching, you know, I'm
more of a guy who rides the streak until it ends,
and I would rather ride Kershaw's streak until it ends.
But I can't bet the Dodgers either, because all my
numbers love the Pirates here, so I'm kind of stuck.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this might end up on I think there's a
Twitter account that's like things that proceed unfortunate events. But
I am a man of my word, and I said,
the Pirates are I said, the Pirates going to be
a great bet in September. Wait till September comes around.
They bring some of these guys up. They now have
a lot of their young pitching in Tokyo. Brandon, you said, wow,
they're bullpen six overall in Major League Baseball. Well, when
you have Bubba Chandler throwing four innings out of a
bullpen on a regular basis, that's going to improve your
bullpen numbers. And you talked about Mazinski not really going
into the fifth inning, that's by design. He's not really
a guy that's going to be like a six to
seven inning starter.
Speaker 3: He's more of open basically.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I always felt like he was gonna be
a good long reliever. He's used at Indianapolis as a
starter often. I think you can use him as a starter,
but I don't know that his strength is going to
be like pitching six seven innings. And credit to the Pirates.
I can't believe him saying that I'm giving them credit
for how they've managed something because this because I truly believe,
I truly believe if there were more competent folks in
place that the Pirates would probably be ten games over
five hundred with the talent they have on their roster. Like,
I know, they lack offense a little bit, and that's
an issue, but I mean we the Guardians lack offense,
and the Guardians are on the fringe of a playoff race.
The Pirates lack offense yet have absolute stud pitchers. And
what are we coming into today, Brian? What's the Pirate
trucker right now? I just want to make my point here.
There's six, Okay, So.
Speaker 2: I do want to go out. They're thirty nine and
thirty at home. We've talked about them being bad and
the out. They've only won twenty two games on the
road all season. So if you're gar going to bet
the Pirates, the best place to do it is at home.
Speaker 1: So I am going to bet the Pirates, and I
I'm feeling pretty good today. I'm probably going to have
more than one Major League Baseball play. That's a that's
a client play. So I'm just gonna do it. I
just I just punched this in for four percent. I'll
use it as my parlay leg My play is Pirates
plus one and a half, like mining that minus one
ten range I think that's I think that's actually a
crazy value to be able to get the run here
for like minus one ten, minus one fifteen, depending on
your book. That's where it is right now. I'll let
Brian give us a consensus price for the parlay, but
I think anything in that range is is tremendous value
for a Pirates team that I really think is going
to be the spoiler in September. And that's what I
That's why I say, you can you know, you can
Cold Takes exposed me in three weeks if they play terrible.
But I don't think they're going to. I think the
Pirates are going to be the spoiler of the league
this month. And I just want to make the point here.
Speaker 3: I look at like you look at WRC plus, and
you look at like, look at the Guardians.
Speaker 1: Okay, this is a team that's been near the bottom
of the league WRC plus all season, just like the Pirates.
They're sixty eight and sixty eight, right, the Pirates are
sixty one and seventy seven. And it's just it's just
because the Guardians have a much better they just manage
that everything is managed better in that organization. I'm not
saying that they don't do things wrong too, but everything's
managed better than Pittsburgh, who's essentially like the Pirates have
no excuse. I mean, they have a generational talent in
Paul schemes, they have like four other really good starting
pitching options, they have great bullpen arms, and there are
some talented guys, and they've essentially managed their they they've
When I say managed, I mean the front office has
managed them into obscurity this year thirteen games out of
the wildcard race, which is insane for the for the
pitching talent that's on that team. But I think they're
I think they're undervalue now and so I'm gonna I'll
probably bet them all month when when the spot presents
itself and I think that this is a spot that's
worth the worth jumping in so Pirates, it absolutely is,
and it's a four percenter for me TV. So say
that again for the people in the back that say
we don't give enough picks out on the show. I
could have sold that one for well, I guess for
five dollars because it's Tuesday, but I'm.
Speaker 3: Giving it to you for free, and I'm probably going
to have another one up for five dollars. So Craig
just providing the value today is really what it what
it is here? Brian, what's the uh? What's the price
on pirates? There?
Speaker 2: I see a lot of one fifteen some mon twenty
is but let's go one sixteen?
Speaker 3: Perfect?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the I think the back end when
I was punching that in maybe gave me plus maybe
gave me minus one ten. So like obviously booked to
book shopping around and might it might actually be moving
as we're doing this, because I put that in probably
five ten minutes ago, and I do I wouldn't be
surprised one bit if the Pirates took some money today,
especially on that plus one and a half, because per
my numbers, that's not what it should be. And again,
anything can happen on a given day. The Dodgers are
still a very good team. But how often have we
seen this Dodgers team go on the road in a
spot like this against an inferior opponent and play down
to them.
Speaker 3: I feel like they've done it all year.
Speaker 2: Why rookies.
Speaker 4: Swept, swept, and just.
Speaker 3: To hammer the point home, they just played the Diamondbacks,
who I think that's enough of a rivalry to say
that they could have a little bit of a letdown
coming off that d Back series. I know Arizona's not
a Giants to them or a Padres, but that's been
a pretty heated series over the past I would say
eight nine years Dbacks Dodgers, So I love the spot
for the Pirates. Go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 2: Yeah. If you take a look at the the schedule
for the Dodgers, they just played Arizona, divisional rival right
before they they played Cincinnati, who at the time looked
like they were fighting for the playoffs, and San Diego.
Now they're playing Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Colorado before they finished
the season with San Francisco, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Arizona, and Seattle,
either divisional rivals or teams that they may face in
the playoffs. So this next next ten days or so,
when they placed Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Colorado, it would not
surprise me if they do not end up making money
for their clients. If you were to bet them every game,
you may be better off playing against them and getting
some plus because they're gonna be favorite just about every game.
So this is the time right now on the schedule,
where I'm I'll I'll be looking to bet against the
Dodgers today, maybe one of those days. We're losing a
little bit of value as it goes on because people
are coming in on Pittsburgh right now, but that's usually
a good thing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I just wanted to point Steve Duke in
the chat makes it makes a point that I think
is good, but I want, I want to like just
clarify it a little bit. Sharps don't hit one hundred
percent nowhere near. Tailing sharps is always a bad idea
of price chasing is what they do. Tailing them means
weaker prices for you. Generally speaking, I would agree with that.
Speaker 2: You don't.
Speaker 1: You don't want to just steam chase and constantly take
a worse number. But I don't think there's any problem
with being cognizant, Like for me, right here I put
this in it was minus one ten.
Speaker 3: I do see it's moving a little bit right now.
Speaker 1: I don't think taking like a minus one fifteen on
that plus one and a half bet, or even minus
one twenty is a bad bet by any means.
Speaker 3: I do think if.
Speaker 1: You are regularly, regularly like taking thirty cents worse than
what the sharp people took. Yeah, that's gonna be a
bad look long term, But like on a one off scenario,
I think it's it's good to just always evaluate the
information that you have. So it's like, Okay, I should
probably hop in on pirates now if I like them,
because this might move a little bit. Maybe I lost
five cents, but I can live with that, and maybe
maybe it was worth the five cents to know that
that's maybe where some respected money is. Everything's a case
by case basis, and I would say that this is
as well. But yes, your your general point of do
you want to just constantly chase thirty twenty five thirty
cents difference on the number, Yeah, that's gonna get you
in trouble long term. Can you use it to maybe
like say, okay, I need to I need to move
on this, I need to jump in now because this
is where it's probably going. Yeah, I think that's fine,
And if you do it within like five ten cents,
I don't think that's a bad thing at all. So
I just wanted to clarify that, and if you two
want to jump in on that, go ahead. But that
that's really I just saw that in the chat and
wanted to make that point.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I always Yeah, go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 2: It's a pendulum. The right number is right in the middle. Well,
you're either over here or you're over here, and that's
how you bet it. If you're over here, then you
bet this team or not you. So I'm looking at
my picture and the thing I'm screwing up it, but
it bounces back. So if you make it like they
should be a plus one thirty four orts and you're
getting plus one forty, then you bet them. But that
once it gets past that number and you're only getting
plus one twenty, it's not worthy of But that the
other side is probably worthy of a bet.
Speaker 4: I never to what other people bet. It's just a distraction.
I just look at what the numbers are after I
bet something. I treat it like an ex girlfriend. I
never look at it again.
Speaker 1: At Please, you're checking up on me. You know you're
not checking up on those.
Speaker 3: Ex girlfriend's TV on the Instagram seeing what they're doing.
Speaker 4: No way, anyway, don't They don't because nothing, nothing good
comes of that. An next girlfriend is never going to
come back to you. The only thing that's going to
come from that is jealousy. Don't actually I do not.
Speaker 1: I don't think i've I've spoken to an X. Now
I've been in a relationship for like five years at
this point, so it's like, I don't think I've spoken
to an X after it's ended ever, now that you
say that.
Speaker 4: So.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's I can't. I can't say that
that it's been different for me. But I will go
to turn Uble Tommy real quick. I will go to
Turnbuckle Tommy real quick, because this has to be addressed
because we all three of us sell picks and we
do it right here on the wager Talk platform. And
I'm very conscious of this, and I know you guys
try to be as well. He says, that's the problem
with buying picture not getting the same line as them.
Ninety percent of the time. It's all about line value.
So I'm going to say two things to that. One,
that's why you do like the all access and you
get it right away, right because like if you, I mean,
and I know that people can't be attached to their
phones and sometimes they're going to lose some value, but
like I know, for me, if something moves considerably, I
almost always take the package down and I actually think
wager talk's pretty good. I've had our bosses come in
and be like, hey, that's moved, Like you can't sell
that anymore.
Speaker 3: So I know that we try to do that as
good as possible.
Speaker 1: But and then but at the same time, and I'm
gonna do maybe my maybe my best segue promo ever here,
Brian Leonard, because we have that all access seven day
on sale right now. That's why you would do the
all access because as soon as I punch it in,
you see it and and really like and I run
into this with the with the Triple A stuff. And
that's why I never I I have not, at any
point this year put a brick up to sell a
minor league baseball play standalone because I know it's gonna move.
So it's like, if you're on the all access, you
have the shot at it. And but but like we're
doing the best we can with that. But that's a
good point. It's very difficult, and we I know, we
try to really be conscious of that, but it's a
it's a it's a point that needs to be made.
And I also think that's why you pay for the
overall expertise. The explanation behind it. You know, at least
for me, I feel like that's why we're we're selling
what we're selling, and I wanted to bring that up.
Speaker 2: We all we also before I know, we're gonna lay,
but we also put up limits on you know, like today,
I've got a four percent play in Major League Baseball
is my five dollars play, And I said, I have
it good. I think there's value up until this number.
So once it gets past that number, obviously, either we
take it down or you don't want to play it.
Speaker 3: All right, I'm gonna throw Oh, go ahead, TV.
Speaker 4: I agree with those sentiments. If you're a subscriber, you
get our play right away, and the line is the
same as what we get if you get it later.
We do make parameters.
Speaker 3: So yeah, all right, Brian Leonard, I'm gonna I'm gonna
throw it to you. Give us a game that you
might want to talk about, maybe one that you want
to put in the parliament.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll give you what I use in my free
play today. That's the Baltimore San Diego game. It's got
Wells against Darvish one sixty five maybe one sixty eight
favor on Darvish right now, eight and a half to
the under, eight to the over, and this one the
reason I like Baltimore here. The reason why I like
them for the most part is I like the way
they're hitting. They've got the younger guys up now and
they're doing very well. Tyler Wells is coming back from injury.
He's only been able to get in fifteen innings all
season long, but I like him over all his career.
The Ra's four point oh six with a one point
oh five whip so far this season five point eighty
seven or the RA seven point sixty four, but keep
in mind he's been hurt one point three seven whip.
The reason I like it is because he's able to
come in. He's a fresh arm that they haven't been
able to use all year long. And I talked about
pitching in teams that have not had high, you know,
high leverage innings. That's been the Orioles. They've been out
of it for a long time. And then he's going
against you, Darvish here, and Darvish, I'm saying with a
five point sixty six, a three point sixty six sixpected,
he's had a lot of bad luck, no doubt about it.
One point one to one web. But you know he's
in thirty This is his thirteenth season, and he pitched
in the across the across the water, as they say
in Japan, for a long time, So those dings are
getting up there. He's already thrown seventeen hundred innings in
Major League Baseball and he came over late. He's thirty
nine years old. And if you're looking at the Padres,
a lot of the guys that throw the big innings,
the scheme or excuse me, the ceases, the Darbishes, those
kind of guys are struggling right now, and it's just
they're piling up. His chase rate is only in the
six percentile. He can't get players to swing for the
same pitch as they got when he was younger. Every
actual ve loss, he's been great ninetyeighth percent of hard
hit ray eighty eighth percentile. But he's got eight different pitches,
which is what I like about him. So if something's
not working, you can always go to something else. But
the Padres right now are struggling. They're about two and
a half behind the Dodgers. Now. The Dodgers given them
every chance to take this division and they're just not
taking it. U San Diego, as I mentioned, you know,
they're eleventh and hitting over the last two weeks, and
it's they've been very inconsistent. Baltimore is a team that's
on their way up. They're seventeenth right now. They're hitting
a one o seven for give me one on four
WRC plus. So I just thought the line was too higher.
It we're looking at. You know, there's some places out
there in the one seventy five range on the on
the padres, I can't back. Then there's Baltimore has been
very good to me the last week, scoring a lot
of runs, have been getting them a good plus money prices.
I'll be back on them again today from a from
an underdog standpoint, I think that game has the most
value for an underdog on today's card, and that'll be
my part of the parlay I will play Baltimore. Looks
like a census is about one seven. Let's take Baltimore
plus one forty seven.
Speaker 3: Wow, there we go. Juice up those parleys. Love it
go ahead to you.
Speaker 4: It means that means I can cheat and take a
really bad line.
Speaker 2: Okay, good, we've learned our lessons on that you don't
want to do.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we have. Uh so it's five dollars Tuesday, guys,
go to Wayja Talk dot com and see what we have.
We will have free plays up to at least take
the ten seconds to go to one of our three sites.
Take a look what we got Wayja Talk dot com,
click experts and we will be there. Yeah. Like Brian said, Darvis,
Darvis threw a lot of innings in Japan before he
went to America. He was probably my favorite picture in
Japan to watch so good. He was better than Otani
over here and they were on the same team. But uh,
in America, obviously, Otani is outshining him, a younger guy
and in his prime. But uh, Darvas is getting a
little old and his stats are showing it. But you know,
he's he ranks kind of middle in almost every category.
So basically, we like to use the term innings eater.
He's an innings eater. He's not flashy, he's not gonna
k ten guys per nine, but he'll get the job done.
He'll get a quality start half of the time he's
out there, and he'll generally go five or six innings
and he'll give up three earned runs in five innings.
Not great outing, but okay, so if the team can
produce some runs, he can get you a win. Maybe
half of his starts so wells kind of scares me.
He's given up five runs, three runs, three runs. I
don't know how he's gonna do today. I still the
Padres Brian is exactly hit the head, hit the nail
on the head. I mean, the Padres had the lead
over the Dodgers, they had a two was it two
games or just one and a half games. They were
one and a half games over the Dodgers like a
week ago, and they they barfed it away. They're losards
right now. They're just losards. They can't They're playing like
garbage at the most critical time. But I still have
their hitting in current form ranked five in Major League Baseball,
so they still can hit. Both bullpens pretty average talent.
Whyse San Diego I think is a top two bullpen.
But they're getting injured and they're not playing well, and
Darbish's starvish. He'll probably give up three earned in five
or six innings, and that's basically what you can expect
from him these days. Overall, I might think about the
Padres team total over because they're hitting so well. But
there's too many X factors and this game could go
this game could go either way. I don't know if
the Padres are going to shape up and start playing
like a playoff contender. I mean, I actually thought they
had World Series hopes when they were when they overtook
the Dodgers. I thought they were just going to put
it in high gear and just you know, go, and
that they just laid an egg. Such a talented team though,
But I can't go against the Padres here.
Speaker 1: So Collin says, have it. Look, how as well has
been in rehab. He's actually been tremendous. I watched every
inning of his last two rehab starts. He was excellent.
And and I'll point this out, the Orioles have been
out of it for a while, so very similar to
Kyle Bradish, they gave him a lot of time. Six
rehab starts like, they gave him more than enough time
to sort of get back into the flow of things,
work his way up from a couple of innings to
throwing full starts like the last two starts at Triple
A for him five and two thirds, six and a
third like there's gonna be no no pitch restriction, He's
gonna be able to go his full allotment of pitches
and and so yeah, total total numbers at Norfolk in
August a two seven zero e RA and a one
to twenty whip.
Speaker 3: He's been he's been solid. So I don't think you're
you know, you can expect Tyler.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not saying that he's like this elite arm
by any means, but I wouldn't worry about anything injury
related or the fact that like you're gonna get his best,
you're gonna get his full start right there. Only way
I could play it is something Orioles related. So I'm
with Brian. I think he's he's right to sort of
sort of target that value on the road. I always
kind of look to that plus one and a half.
It's a little pricey in the minus one forty five range,
So probably the better way to go is just to
take the plus odds, as Brian did in our parlay.
But the Orioles are are that team where it's just
like they're they're very Pirates esque right now. A lot
of young guys that come up, you know, they're they're
gonna probably be a good spoiler throughout the course of September.
Jeremiah Jackson's been awesome. It's a young team, so you
know they're there. They are a little bit hard to
trust on the road, but I like the talent there,
and I.
Speaker 3: Think they're very undervalue. So I'm with Brian. I'm liking
the Orioles there. TV. You want to throw a game
out for us to talk about.
Speaker 4: Uh, A lot of people are asking for. Uh what
were they asking for?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 4: You know, on a second, I would like to talk
about Mariners Raced because you've got two really good pictures here,
and I'd just like to talk about that for a minute.
Speaker 2: What do we got?
Speaker 4: But that's not gonna be my parlay leg.
Speaker 3: But you can add your you can add your parlay
leg at the end, we'll go, We'll go Mariners raise
Brian start us off Mariner's.
Speaker 2: Race, Yeah, Maryland's raise. Whoa rass Mussen. That's what I've
said a lot of times when I bet on Rasmus.
He has been very good for me. Uh, Brian wo
and Drew Rasmussen. Uh, we've got woo about a one
ten favorite here, slight slightly slightly favorite I guess, uh,
eight to the and in this game Seattle and Tampa.
Seattle's you know. You take a look at Seattle lately,
they have not played well. Uh They've gone five and
five at a time where Texas has been read hof
for some reason. Right after Texas looked like they were
out of it. Now they've got eighteen percent chance to
make the playoffs again. So Settle, we thought we had
it all locked up. They were going to be the
wildcard team, if not winning the division. But they've struggled
a little bit lately. In fact, on the season now,
despite the seventy three and sixty five record for the Mariners,
they only have a run differential plus seventeen. They should
only really be one or two games over five hundred
based on that run differential. So I love both these pitchers.
But it is in Tampa Bay, which is the minor
league ballpark, and we have seen some times where the
offense gets the advantage there. But I'm going to be
very short on it since it's not I'm not involved here,
like I expect the first five to go under, and
other than that, I'm passing on this game.
Speaker 4: I think you got to take the race here just
because Drew Respire Drew Raspusson has been light out, and
he's been especially lights out against these batters. Fifty two
at bats against, two twelve average against in a five
twenty nine OPS. That's more than two hundred points under
what I consider the Mendoz aligned for ops. Brian Wu
has really struggled against these batters, actually, three forty five
average against an eight sixty two OPS against. So I
think Tampa has the bullpen. Tampa's bullpen is in better form,
got them ranked four in MLB. I got Seattle's ranked twenty.
Seattle's bullpen is much better than twenty in MLB, but
not performing quite well right now, and I got both
lineups pretty comparable. Granted Seattle does have I think he
still is the home run king for now or did
Schwarber pass and I'm not sure, but they definitely have
the best catcher, the best hitting catcher in MLB, that's undeniable,
and him together with Suarez a dangerous combination but not
performing right now. Give give give their catcher his home run.
I still think Tampa Bay will win this game. Not
a huge, huge confidence played, but that's the way I
would go in this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I did a video for this game yesterday, gave
out the over it. It did get there in the end.
Speaker 1: It probably shouldn't have been as difficult as it was,
but there was.
Speaker 3: There was some runs in that one late.
Speaker 1: I was tempted to kind of go back the other
way here, but I don't I was really I guess
I would. It would have been naive to think that
you would get an eight and a half in a
game with with Wu and Rastussen on the mount. That
being said, like the fact that you're getting an eight flat,
I think I make it seven and a half for
an under, so like maybe some slight value on the
under there. I also think i'd probably go the other
way I And again this is probably more due to
where I have the Mariners rated, but coming off of
yesdays sort of getting blown out, I don't know. I
still maybe I'm just too high on this Mariners team
and that that could be you know, that that could
be a thing. I feel like they were one where
I was ahead of the curve on them. They sort
of came out and took the division lead over there,
and since they just haven't played as well, but I
have them rated like significantly higher than the race, which
is which is maybe maybe I'm wrong with that. My
numbers like the Mariners, but my gut is telling me, like,
I don't know, you don't want to do it, you
know what I mean? Like, so this is one I'm
probably gonna have to pass on because again, my numbers
like the Mariners. I personally like WU and I'm like, okay,
I'm getting the what I consider to be the better
team minus one oh five, minus one ten. But man,
they just they had nothing last night and they got
blown out. And we saw it with the Mariners in
that Philly series where they kind of just dragged on
the road and and and it permeated throughout the series,
and I'm having flashbacks to that.
Speaker 3: So I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can get into this one tough,
tough game. We'll be again another one that's that's gonna
be great to watch, but I don't know if I
can bet anything in that game. TV, Do you know
what you want to use to close out this this parlay?
Speaker 2: Here?
Speaker 4: I do, and don't throw tomatoes at me, but we've
got the number five MLB starter in all of MLB
going against the worst team in MLB. Gotta take the
Giants here minus two twenty five for a parlay leg Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay,
go ahead, give me the tomatoes.
Speaker 3: What hey, I like it. I decided yesterday that I'm
back in on the Giants a little bit, especially I
think they sweep this series. So I'm no tomatoes coming
from here.
Speaker 4: It's weird to think, but the Giants and the Diamondbacks
still have playoff hopes. I mean slim, but still.
Speaker 3: Hey, if they they can sweep in Colorado here, they're
They're at least in the conversation, I think they're going
to no no tomatoes coming from from this side of
Brian's baby. Brian's got a couple for you, I don't know.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, one point eight chance to make the play
one point eight percent chance to make the playoffs. They
are trying to finish the season with a winning record, though,
and they're right at five hundred right now, so I
understand that. I just for myself, I don't like to
go against Freeland at home. He's the only guy that
knows how to pitch in this ballpark in Marquez over
the years. But that said, yeah, Colorado's not a good team,
but they're much better team at home than they are
on the road. I'm just trying to throw out something
the other way.
Speaker 4: But I hear you. They got some scrappy young hitters,
but I think the Giants have more, so you can.
Speaker 2: Get them to enter in MLB a little bit less
than what you said, so you can get a two
fifteen out there.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I really you're telling me that a sixty what
are they? Sixty nine win team versus a thirty nine
win team is only minus two twenty. Wow? Yeah, so.
Speaker 3: TV, I'm I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I wrote about the I wrote about that game extensively yesterday,
and obviously I liked the spot and the price better
yesterday for the Giants, but I said I I won't.
Speaker 3: I really do think they probably sweep this series.
Speaker 1: I just I like what I've what I've seen from
them this weekend and into this series. And then they
did exactly what I expected.
Speaker 3: Them to do yesterday. They want and they want convince convincingly.
Speaker 1: So Travis says easy, easy parlay leg Giants don't.
Speaker 3: I'm taking the easy.
Speaker 1: I never I never like to say anything is easy,
But like I'm not, I'm not arguing with you about
putting that in there.
Speaker 3: I'm fine. I really do think.
Speaker 4: Last time I said the same spiel, I said, don't
hate me. I'm gonna take the easy way out. I
lost it. It was it was the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: Nothing easy, But I do I do think your rationale
there is sound, and I expect the Giants to man
up and take care of business in Denver. I said
it yesterday and I'm with you TV, so I'm fine
with that. I'm fine with that.
Speaker 2: Five dollars Tuesday, five dollars Tuesday. I've got my four percent,
my best bet, probably the only play I'm gonna use
today up right now. Number two in the last three days,
last seven days, number one lifetime in Major League Baseball.
What did you get a total on this parlay? Yet?
Speaker 3: I did?
Speaker 1: Yes, I'm gonna read it one more time right here.
The three teamer for today is Giants money line Orioles
money line, and I'm gonna use Pirates plus one and
a half.
Speaker 3: So Tokyo Brandon, Giants money line, Brian Leonard Orioles money line.
Speaker 1: Those will icely balance each other out right there from
a price standpoint, and then I'm going to go with
Pirates plus one and a half. That three teamer is
plus five seventy six and I gave my that Pirates
plays a four percent and for me, I'm gonna put
it in the free play section if you're looking for
additional analysis on it. Not going to sell that one,
deciding to be generous today, even though I was two
and oh yesterday. But I'll find something else to sell.
Don't worry about that. But that is a client play
for me, Pirates plus one and a half a four percenter. Sorry, Brian,
did you have something else to add there?
Speaker 4: All set five dollars Tuesday?
Speaker 3: Five dollars Tuesday, everyone will have a play up for
five bucks. Check out Everyone's page.
Speaker 1: You can basically get all three of our plays, all
three of our five dollar plays for the less than
the price of like one place.
Speaker 3: So it's a great data to shop around on the site. Yeah,
that's that's a wrap. Tomorrow morning, nine Eastern as every
as every day, we'll be here grinding and out. Have
a great Tuesday. Everyone, cash all your tickets. We'll see
you guys in the morning.