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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is Tuesday. It's time

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for total bases. Brian made his way back across the country.

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He's back in Las Vegas. It's actually did you sleep?

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Have you slept at all? Is what we want to

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know before we get the show going.

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Speaker 2: I may have gotten four hours. Yeah, it's been. I'm

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to the point anymore where I love to travel, but

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I hate to fly, especially if it's cross country. I

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can't imagine when when Brandon goes from Japan to Arizona

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along of a flight that is it's it's crazy. I

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don't think I could ever do it.

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Speaker 1: I also, I will say this, though I have a

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much easier time going to the West Coast. Anytime I

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come home from the West Coast usually is when it

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really gets me.

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Speaker 3: So at any rate, we're all here.

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Speaker 1: There's fifteen Major League Baseball games to break down today,

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and we're going to do that for the next hour,

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like we do every day right here on Wager Talk TV.

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We start in the Lone Star State. This is a

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kind of a kind of an important game tonight. We've

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got America's team, the New York Yankees. I don't know

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if that's America's team. I just feel like, but the

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New York Yankees. They're taking on the Houston Astros, two

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teams that are in battles in their respective divisions, but

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probably gonna both be in the playoffs this year as

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the American League sort of playoff picture you know, I

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guess has taken shape already. So let's go to Brian

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Leonard looks like Freed and Valdez Yankees Astros.

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Speaker 3: How you seeing this one?

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Speaker 2: Well, they're not America's team to me because I'm from

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Claveland and the Yankees always took all of our best

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players that we couldn't afford, So they've been my most

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hated team this as a child. But hey, if I

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was a Yankees fan, I'd be loving it.

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Speaker 1: So, Brian, do you think there's more Yankee haters in

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the country or Yankee fans?

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Speaker 2: I would say haters because they've been so good for

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so long. I sort of like the Patriots when the

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Patriots were what they were doing in the NFL. Either

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love the Patriots Patriots or he hated them, And it's

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similar to Dallas Cowboys. Also, Colin haters all day. I

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think I agree. Collin says haters all day. The chat

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is saying fire Boone. See I know how to get

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the chat going.

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Speaker 1: Now we're going here, so Yankees, Ashtar, I saw Boone

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was at the game last night.

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Speaker 3: I think did I see that correctly? I think he

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was at the football game.

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Speaker 2: Was he Well, it's good that he spent his time

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doing something productive because he's not doing it as a manager.

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I can't believe they got that to your expression. But anyway,

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let's get back to the what's important as right now. Yeah,

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the Yankees are at home or excuse me, on the road.

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Max Frede against Cramerveldes, both a lefties, and we've got

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the Yankees about one fourteenth favorite right now, totals either

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seven and a half to the over or eight to

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the under. Why don't you take a look at this one,

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Max fred Other than that one part of the season

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where I think I think he might have been dealing

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with blisters or something, but he's been pretty good since then.

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But he did go three or four starts where he

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really struggled. Right now, three point oh six cra three

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point seven three expected, one point one one whip. Now,

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when I talk about expecting him being so far down,

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go back to the last you know, what is it

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the last three years or four years and every year

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six years straight now where he has beaten his expected numbers.

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So he's doing something that that they're not picking up

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in anybody's programs regarding that. But he's been very good.

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His chase rate is down only in the thirty six

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percent ofle but he's a very solid pitcher, and he

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throws seven pitches. Basically a lot of a lot of

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JUNKET throws up there, which is fine. That's what I like.

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And he's been very good, and the Yankees bullpen has

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been pretty good shape right now. Fremer Valdez recently came

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back from entry three point one a DRA three point

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seventh three expected one point one nine whip. He's also

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a guy they expected DRA is always higher than what

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his numbers are going all the way back to a

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second season at twenty nineteen. So these are two guys

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that always perform better than their metrics. So the first

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thing I look at there is where these two get together.

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Should I play the under Well, you've got does ninety

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eighth percent of and grob all percent. He does give

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up home runs. Usually when you take a look at

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teams like the Yankees here they're known for their bats,

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but the Yankees right now are They're a big home

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run team, and they're playing a team that or at

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least the starting pitchers out to give home runs. And

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you've got Houston team who has been shut out how

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many games in the last month. I mean, their offense

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just has not done well. If you can still get

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an eight out there, and I see minus fifteen or so,

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I think that's not a bad bet Houston and the

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Yankees under I think both these starting pitchers will have

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some success.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, guys, had a good day yesterday. I couldn't believe

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the line for the Giants against the Rockies yesterday, probably

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because Tang was unproven. That was my only MLB playing

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at one and I just went three and one in

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Asian Baseball. So looking good right now. Go to our

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pages at wager talk dot com and see what we

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got up. It's five dollars Tuesday, so I'm sure all

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three of us will have a five dollars play and

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a free play as well. Mine's already up. Regarding this game,

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these are two well together organizations run organizations. Yankees have

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struggled a bit, but actually the Astros were the ones

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who were struggling at the plate until the last couple

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of games. Last couple of games are starting to catch on.

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But like five games before that, I think they scored

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like three runs in five games. They're just cold as ice.

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Now they're heating up a little bit. The first thing

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that jumps out when you look at this matchup is, wow,

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we got two really good pictures here, But if you

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look at how they do against the batters they're facing today,

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not so good. Valdez has struggled against these batters in

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his career for a three hundred average against in an

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eight twenty nine OPS against, and that's eighty at bats

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against a good sample size. Freed has struggled as well,

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not quite as bad against the Astro batters that he's

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facing today, ninety seven at bats against, two ninety nine

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average and a seven to sixty OPS so not very

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good actually, but still Freed's numbers are a little better

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than Valdez's against the batters he's facing. I have these

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two starting pictures on a curve of thirty ranked dead even.

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I got the bullpens ranked close to dead even. But

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the real discrepancy I see here two things. Number One,

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Yankees are batting a lot better than the Astros right

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now in current and also Max Fried's walk ratio is

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within an acceptable range, but Valdez is his walks to

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strikeout ratio is not very good fifty three, and I

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like I like people to be in the I like

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pictures to be in the thirty to forty percent range.

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He's walking fifty three percent of the batters that he

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strikes out. It's too high. I think it's Yankees or nothing.

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But I'm not going to play it because I think

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that's just the discrepancy between these two teams is just

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too slim for me to play it. So I won't

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be playing it muted.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Dogs were getting after it. Sorry about that.

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Two things what Titan Set says, Yeah, he was at

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n see he was, and he.

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Speaker 1: Was decked out in North Carolina. I wonder if he's

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getting blamed for that. Yeah, I wonder if he's getting

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blamed for their loss. You know, he's on the you know,

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he's on the field North Carolina gear they got killed

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last night, So maybe they're blaming Aaron Boone for that.

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The second thing TV, Yeah, I was on the Giants

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yesterday too, got him at like minus one thirty.

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Speaker 3: Could couldn't believe that. And I have in MLB yesterday,

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So yeah, I'm pretty.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And you're saying, I think they just didn't really understand

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how to price Tang and he ended up being pretty good.

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So Giants and Mets for me yesterday, hopefully we can

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get it going again today. Uh for this game right here,

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I'm just gonna kind of refer back to my numbers

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I have. I have the Yankees, you know, maybe a

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slight edge on the number. I think that probably where

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it's priced in the minus one ten minus fifteen range

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is fair as far as like you know, you come

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into this game. My gut tells me the Yankees.

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Speaker 3: Could put a little pressure on Toronto, like it just

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forget forget this game for a second, Like you know,

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even though they lost their last game, but the Blue

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Jays losing in the fashion they did yesterday, that should

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certainly get you know, that should certainly get the Yankees'

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juices flowing two and a half back now in that

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division after yesterday's loss, And.

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Speaker 1: I know I gotten. I was arguing with people on

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Twitter over the weekend. I still think the Astros choke

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this division away. I still think the Mariners have it

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in the tank. I think the Mariners are a better team,

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and so like, I'm certainly coming into this series looking

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for a place to sort of play the Yankees and

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fade Houston.

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Speaker 3: I don't mind it being here.

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Speaker 1: Like I'm still higher on Freed long term than Valdez,

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So like, I'm not gonna I guess I'm not gonna

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waste a ton of time on this one because I

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don't I don't have a really like super strong conviction

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about this game, but I will just say in general,

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in this series, I kind of would like to find

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a place to play the Yankees. I just like the

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way that the Yankees are trending right now, and I

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think they're hungry. I think the Blue Jays have sort

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of reignited the flame a little bit. Like Brian said,

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they know they're gonna be in the playoffs. You pretty

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much know, like without unless there's like a big time collapse,

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you pretty much know your six playoff teams in the

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American League. But the Yankees have a real shot to

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catch the Blue Jays, and three four weeks ago, I

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just did not think that that was going to be

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the case, I thought the Blue Jays were gonna run

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away with this division. I know they're seven and three.

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You got the Yankees seven and three in their last

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ten games right now. Yankees run differential one thirty four

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plus one thirty four. It's one of the best marks

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in Major League Baseball. Blue Jay's only fifty five. I

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don't know how much you read into that, but maybe

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this Yankees team is a little bit better than we

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gave them credit for, and maybe they've just cleaned it

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up a little bit, because remember, I don't think they

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were ever a bad team. They were just making a

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lot of play like mistakes costing them games. Haven't done

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it as much lately. Guess it doesn't surprise me that

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they're winning at this rate. So a lean toward the Yankees.

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Aaron Pauling says, noteworthy, Houston is six and one straight

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up as a home dog this season. Obviously small sample size,

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but worth pointing out. I don't like Freed, but I

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do love Valdez, especially at home. Yeah, I think it's

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all very solid point. I don't think I'll have anything

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in this one, but it's certainly a big game and

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probably gonna be.

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Speaker 3: A good one. To watch. Let's go to the next game.

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Let's go to the next game here. Let's see.

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Speaker 1: Jose Perez says he likes McLean kys today, So I

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am assuming he's talking about the Mets.

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Speaker 3: Mets got it done for me yesterday. I was that

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was that game turned into a total slug fest. Mets

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ended up winning ten to eight. No one could get out. Today.

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It is Nolan MacLean who has been tremendous.

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Speaker 1: I think Brian Leonard it's safe to say he's exceeded

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expectations since his call up, with his eer currently under one.

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And I'm guessing the Tigers, is Gibson Long actually listed?

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Speaker 3: I think he's listed right, Sorry, Gypson Long. So he

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was one of those guys yesterday.

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Speaker 1: I said the Tigers were gonna expand their roster, They're

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gonna kind of spread some innings around, and one of

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those guys is gonna get some of those is Sawyer

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Gibson Long, who's been down at Toledo Mets Tigers here.

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McLean has been tremendous. Brian, are you gonna bet against him?

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Are you gonna keep riding him? Or is there no

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way into this game for you?

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Speaker 2: Well? People were asking in the chat why he was

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a one forty favorite. Well, he's no longer a one

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forty favor. That's a good thing. He's down to one

239
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twenty five and a lot of the sharp books out there,

240
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which means that the guys who bet for a living

241
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are jumping on going against him, which kind of surprises

242
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me because if I wanted to go against him, I

243
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think I would wait till later in the day because

244
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he's got so many fans right now and a lot

245
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of people are looking to bet him that they maybe

246
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they do know something we don't. I don't know. Maybe

247
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it's maybe they know what the lineup is going to

248
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be today. But yeah, McLean against Gipson long, we've got

249
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to mets it about yeah, twenty seven right now overall,

250
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and we've got eight and a half to the over

251
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twenty when take a look at mcleany's been nothing but

252
00:12:58,759 --> 00:13:02,639
unbelievable so far zero point oh excuse me, zero point

253
00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:06,720
eight nine now era expected Era two point five eights.

254
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So obviously there's a lot of luck involved, especially you

255
00:13:09,159 --> 00:13:11,559
go on twenty innings and you got a era under

256
00:13:11,639 --> 00:13:14,960
one is a rookie, but his whip is aero point

257
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six y nine. He's been fantastic that way. He's only

258
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pitched twenty innings, so a lot of his numbers from

259
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:25,240
the advanced metric haven't He hasn't thrown enough pitches yet

260
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for to be really meaningful. But I will say his

261
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heart hit rate, he's he's getting hit a little bit,

262
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and he's average actual velocity, so we can see a

263
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,759
blow up at any time. That said, this is a

264
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guy that comes in with six different pitches as a rookie.

265
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He's twenty four years old. I think he's got a

266
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great career ahead of him. I've been very impressed, but

267
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he is pitching over his head at this point. Gibson

268
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long guy that I've liked for a long time. You know,

269
00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:01,559
two seasons. He's twenty twenty three through twenty innings and

270
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twenty twenty four. I believe it was an injury prone

271
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year so he didn't play at all. And then in

272
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twenty twenty five he's got throwing twenty five innings so far.

273
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He's got great extension ninety seventh percentile, doesn't walk many batters.

274
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,559
He's very good in the chase rate, but he's not

275
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gonna beat you with his fastball. He's only the twentieth

276
00:14:19,879 --> 00:14:23,840
percentile in fastball velocity, and that's still even though he

277
00:14:23,879 --> 00:14:26,440
spreads out his five pitches pretty well, he still throws

278
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:28,720
his fourth seamer more than anybody or any of his

279
00:14:28,759 --> 00:14:31,559
other pitches. He only throws at ninety two point nine.

280
00:14:31,639 --> 00:14:34,000
So he's more of a junk ball type of pitcher.

281
00:14:34,039 --> 00:14:37,039
But I like those kind of guys, and I think

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he is. I'm glad he's a back on the Tigers roster.

283
00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,600
He's gonna help this team. He's a good pitcher. He

284
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just has had problems with injuries so far. So when

285
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I take a look at these two, as I mentioned,

286
00:14:51,799 --> 00:14:54,360
the line basically won twenty seven and eight and a

287
00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:57,720
half to the over somewhat like the under here. This

288
00:14:57,799 --> 00:15:00,639
is a good pitching ballpark. McLean has been a great

289
00:15:00,639 --> 00:15:04,600
picture so far. Although I think I think the best

290
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of what we have seen out of us probably already happened.

291
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He's going to have some regression along. Don't know how

292
00:15:11,039 --> 00:15:13,559
long he's going to go. I haven't read through that

293
00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:18,039
as of yet, but Detroit has struggled lightly, but this

294
00:15:18,159 --> 00:15:21,080
is still the playoff team. They're going to the playoffs

295
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,360
and there they We've seen him earlier in the year

296
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:24,720
a lot of people thought they were the best team

297
00:15:24,759 --> 00:15:27,200
in baseball. This is what happens. That's why they throw

298
00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,120
play one hundred sixty two games, like both the pictures.

299
00:15:30,159 --> 00:15:33,600
But I am a little bit afraid of McLean's regression,

300
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,000
so slightly with Detroit, but don't think i'll get there.

301
00:15:39,679 --> 00:15:42,919
Speaker 4: So this is a weird one. Five dollars Tuesday, guys,

302
00:15:43,279 --> 00:15:48,159
grab our five dollars place. This is a weird one because, yeah,

303
00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:51,440
McLean's been very impressive, but the sample size is small,

304
00:15:51,519 --> 00:15:53,399
so do you trust it or not? Is the question

305
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,919
and the original question from Jose who's always watching our show.

306
00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,799
We appreciate you, Jose. I'll give you my projection on

307
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,759
his ks it's seven point zero, but he's only started

308
00:16:05,799 --> 00:16:08,559
three games, so I don't really know if I can

309
00:16:08,559 --> 00:16:13,279
trust the sample size. Gibson Long is a weird, weird

310
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,399
stat here. His er is a little bit bloated four

311
00:16:16,399 --> 00:16:19,440
point three, but his whip is amazing one oh four.

312
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,919
So don't really know what to make of him. But

313
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,960
what I do know is by looking over his starts

314
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,399
this season, every time he goes into the fifth inning,

315
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,000
he gives up at least three runs. That's what I

316
00:16:31,039 --> 00:16:35,320
do know the Mets. The Mets are ranked top ten

317
00:16:35,399 --> 00:16:40,039
in every stat that I have, bullpen, starting pitcher, batting,

318
00:16:41,279 --> 00:16:45,799
every expected stat that I see, they're top ten in everything.

319
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,559
I got. The Tigers lineup right now ranked twenty one

320
00:16:48,679 --> 00:16:52,039
and they're bullpen ranked fifteen, So kind of hard to

321
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:56,799
go against McClain here. In my opinion. The thing is

322
00:16:57,519 --> 00:17:01,759
Gibson Long is kind of a an factor because it's

323
00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,680
really erratic. I don't think he's an erratic pitcher, but

324
00:17:04,759 --> 00:17:07,160
the way they're using him is really erratic. So I

325
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,119
don't really know what to expect from him. But I

326
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:14,119
do know the Mets are just clubbing right now, number

327
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,880
one lineup in baseball in current form, and the Tigers

328
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,240
are not, So it would be Mets or nothing for me.

329
00:17:20,559 --> 00:17:24,480
I'm gonna look at McLean's outs recorded. If it's sixteen

330
00:17:24,599 --> 00:17:27,480
or seventeen, I'll definitely take an over on that because

331
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,319
they're letting him go ninety one, ninety four, ninety five

332
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:36,039
pitches increasingly longer. They'll probably rope him in under one hundred,

333
00:17:36,039 --> 00:17:40,000
but still he's an extremely efficient pitcher. He's pitching into

334
00:17:40,039 --> 00:17:43,279
the sixth seventh inning on ninety pitches. That's very efficient,

335
00:17:44,039 --> 00:17:45,559
so I'll look at that as well.

336
00:17:47,599 --> 00:17:49,960
Speaker 1: This is the top one for me because I feel

337
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,160
like I was way ahead of the curve on McClean

338
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,480
and he's been very, very good. But I also like,

339
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,839
I mean, I watched this guy pitch. I probably went

340
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,640
to three of his starts Syracuse this year. Like he's

341
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,880
not immortal, Like he got hit in the miners at times.

342
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,480
So like, while this run has been extremely impressive, and

343
00:18:10,559 --> 00:18:13,039
I really do think that like you're seeing what his

344
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,559
ceiling can be and it's it's I mean, he is

345
00:18:15,599 --> 00:18:18,359
going to be a tremendous pitcher. Kind of reminds me

346
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,559
of like Matt Harvey when the Mets called him up

347
00:18:20,559 --> 00:18:22,200
and he went on that.

348
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,720
Speaker 3: Tear as a rookie. But but the thing is, like,

349
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,559
is the guy unhittable?

350
00:18:26,759 --> 00:18:29,440
Speaker 1: No, I mean I was at games that that he

351
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:31,480
gave up some hard hit and gave up some runs

352
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:33,880
in the minors. So someone someone's probably gonna get to

353
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:34,599
him at some point.

354
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:37,599
Speaker 3: Very well, could be on the road in Detroit.

355
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,160
Speaker 1: You never know, But I do think it's worth like

356
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,000
for me, I have to at least acknowledge, like, Okay,

357
00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,200
this guy is exactly what I thought he could be,

358
00:18:46,039 --> 00:18:48,480
and do I want to then turn around and like

359
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,160
potentially cost myself money by like betting against that, Like

360
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,519
I'd be pretty upset with myself. I feel like if

361
00:18:54,519 --> 00:18:57,880
I turned around took Detroit and he comes out and

362
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,759
pitches well, and I'm just like, yeah, I'm just saying

363
00:19:00,759 --> 00:19:02,839
that's where I am personally, because I feel like there

364
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:04,759
was so far ahead of the curve on McClay.

365
00:19:04,839 --> 00:19:05,039
Speaker 2: Now.

366
00:19:05,599 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 1: I don't want to play against Detroit here because I

367
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,000
really like Sawyer Gibson Long. I actually think Sawyer Gibson

368
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,400
Long will be on the Tiger's playoff roster, and I

369
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,119
think he's probably one of the better pitchers on this

370
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,079
team right now if you look at like their whole

371
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,599
list of pitchers. And that's the thing I was talking

372
00:19:21,599 --> 00:19:24,799
about yesterday with the Tigers. The Mets really cooked through

373
00:19:24,799 --> 00:19:27,000
some bullpen yesterday to win that game ten to eight.

374
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,759
The Tigers are just rotating guys in like they're just

375
00:19:30,799 --> 00:19:33,799
gonna come back with a whole series of different pitchers

376
00:19:33,839 --> 00:19:38,400
today because again they're eight games, eight and a.

377
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,279
Speaker 3: Half games in the lead, nine games in the lead

378
00:19:40,319 --> 00:19:42,599
in their division. So you're not gonna see the Tigers

379
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,200
have quote unquote bullpen usage problems from day to day

380
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,480
because they're not gonna pitch anyone back to back.

381
00:19:48,559 --> 00:19:51,519
Speaker 1: That's just not how they're gonna manage the game. It's

382
00:19:51,519 --> 00:19:54,039
gonna be Sawyer getson long, it's gonna be all relievers

383
00:19:54,039 --> 00:19:55,119
that didn't throw yesterday.

384
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 3: So that makes me like Detroit.

385
00:19:56,519 --> 00:19:59,079
Speaker 1: The other thing that makes me like Detroit here, you know,

386
00:19:59,079 --> 00:20:01,799
you got to understand, Like I think Brian talked about

387
00:20:01,799 --> 00:20:04,920
Gibson long coming into the season, he was hurt, He

388
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,759
didn't he didn't start his season until May when he

389
00:20:07,839 --> 00:20:10,319
was going through rehab. He didn't make his first appearance

390
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,640
for the Tigers until June fourth, and it was kind

391
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,240
of clear at that time that he he wasn't really

392
00:20:17,319 --> 00:20:19,480
ready yet. Maybe he didn't have a long enough spring.

393
00:20:19,759 --> 00:20:22,000
But that first month of June when he was up,

394
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,799
he wasn't great, and then he got hurt again. So like,

395
00:20:24,839 --> 00:20:27,559
this is a guy that started his season late, then

396
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,279
got hurt again a second time, and he spent the

397
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,839
entire month of August down at Toledo. But this time,

398
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,599
or with the exception of one one outing for the Tigers,

399
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,680
this time around, he's been really really good though, so

400
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,160
he looks like he's not hurt anymore because the last

401
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:47,480
month with one one appearance in Detroit, So this is

402
00:20:47,759 --> 00:20:50,720
August for Sorrier. Gibson Long a two six five ERA,

403
00:20:50,759 --> 00:20:53,759
a zero zero nine to four width, and a one

404
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,200
ninety seven batting average against. That's kind of what I

405
00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,200
expected from Gibson Long coming into this season. So I'm

406
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,519
not betting against him either right now. Does it mean

407
00:21:02,559 --> 00:21:06,880
you bet the under? I don't know, because that eight

408
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,319
and a half maybe, but like I don't know if

409
00:21:10,319 --> 00:21:12,880
I want to, like tempt I don't know if I

410
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,599
want to take it under and potentially had the Mets bullpen,

411
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,920
like if they're a little bit behind, they may use

412
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,240
their depth arms today because they know they need to

413
00:21:21,319 --> 00:21:24,000
like look forward and set themselves up for a potential

414
00:21:24,039 --> 00:21:26,920
win tomorrow. I think if I had to play this,

415
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:28,839
it'd be Tigers one plus one and a half, and

416
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,799
I do so reluctantly knowing that if I run into

417
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,519
a hot Nolan MacLean, I might lose again. But Tiger's

418
00:21:34,519 --> 00:21:36,400
plus one and a half makes sense, and maybe Tiger's

419
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,799
on that plus money just from a value standpoint, go ahead, Brian.

420
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, First off, regarding the bullpen for the Mets. They

421
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:49,079
used six of their best guys yesterday and Brandon Wdell,

422
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,359
who they called off from Triple A, he threw fifty

423
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,200
eight pitches on Sunday, so he won't be available now.

424
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,640
These guys, none of them throw throw over fifteen pitches,

425
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,319
so they'll be available up at some of them, like

426
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,640
Diaz's pitched to the last three days. Rogers the same way,

427
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,440
and in fact two other players have been the same.

428
00:22:07,839 --> 00:22:11,079
As for the hitting, because Brandon mentioned the Mets, they're

429
00:22:11,079 --> 00:22:15,000
a number one one sixty four WRC plus. But when

430
00:22:15,039 --> 00:22:19,359
you look on fanographs and they haven't broken down to

431
00:22:19,799 --> 00:22:22,519
they rate the players based on the last seven days

432
00:22:22,559 --> 00:22:25,720
in Major League Baseball to show you how hot they are.

433
00:22:26,039 --> 00:22:29,759
This is the top four hitters for the Mets in

434
00:22:29,799 --> 00:22:33,720
the lineup. This is the last seven days in all

435
00:22:33,759 --> 00:22:39,200
of Major League Baseball. Lind Or ranks nineteenth, Soto number one,

436
00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:43,359
Alonso number nine, Nemo number six, and they follow that

437
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,200
up with Bientos at fifty four. So the top of

438
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,480
this bullpen, or excuse me, the top of this lineup

439
00:22:48,559 --> 00:22:52,519
is as hot as it possibly be. That's the only

440
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,039
concern I have about playing Detroit is you've got all

441
00:22:56,079 --> 00:22:59,720
these guys in conjunction, all in the lineup together, all

442
00:22:59,759 --> 00:23:04,440
hit the hell out of the ball. Maybe we look for, uh,

443
00:23:05,039 --> 00:23:08,519
maybe maybe the Mets to not score in the second

444
00:23:08,599 --> 00:23:10,559
inning or something like that. On doing alldo a lot

445
00:23:10,599 --> 00:23:14,000
of those things. But yeah, I think if Long can

446
00:23:14,039 --> 00:23:15,799
get out of that first inning, I think they're in

447
00:23:15,839 --> 00:23:17,400
pretty good shape for to try. But that's gonna be

448
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:18,480
a tough witch start the game.

449
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, and unless they make unless they make another roster

450
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,880
move today, it looks like it's gonna be. Justin Hagenman

451
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,319
is likely the guy that's going to pitch, probably a

452
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:34,279
bulk type role, even if the tie leverage after after McLain,

453
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,960
because they added him to the roster yesterday. Now, his

454
00:23:38,039 --> 00:23:40,799
numbers at the big league level have been really good

455
00:23:40,799 --> 00:23:43,759
this year, and in a small sample size. Problem is

456
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,160
he hasn't pitched in the He hasn't pitched in the

457
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:51,880
big since since August twelfth. Last couple outings at Syracuse

458
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,559
have not been as good, So I think that would

459
00:23:54,559 --> 00:23:57,359
be I don't know that, like just because he has

460
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,359
like a couple of good outings that for the Mets

461
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:03,359
this year and type starts, I'm not sure that that

462
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,359
I'd be super excited about getting Hagenman from like the

463
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,559
sixth to the eighth inning in this game, which is

464
00:24:08,559 --> 00:24:10,559
like I can just about guarantee what the Mets are

465
00:24:10,599 --> 00:24:12,480
going to try to do. They're gonna try to hope

466
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,640
Nolan McLain has his best stuff.

467
00:24:14,279 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: If it's gonna be Hagenman for a couple of innings,

468
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,759
and then if they are in position to win, they

469
00:24:18,839 --> 00:24:21,240
might just ask a Diaz or someone to like go

470
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,880
out and it's like, hey, seasons on the line, we

471
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:25,920
need you to just get three outs. But I think

472
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:27,400
that's what you're gonna see out of the Mets both

473
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,960
and today. On the flip side, if they're trailing, I

474
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,200
think you can expect Hagenman to finish the game. That's

475
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,319
not good for an under my opinion, because again he's

476
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,279
been blown up a couple of times at Syracuse last

477
00:24:37,319 --> 00:24:39,880
a couple of times out. So I have no interest

478
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,960
in the total because I think you could see some

479
00:24:42,079 --> 00:24:44,880
late runs here Tigers are passed.

480
00:24:45,519 --> 00:24:47,599
Speaker 3: I'll leave I'll leave it at that. That's a that's

481
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:53,119
another one too tough, two very interesting games to start

482
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,839
things off. But I knew they I knew they would

483
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,759
create big talking points on the show. So we pete

484
00:24:58,759 --> 00:25:01,039
that the show loves to talk to and seems to

485
00:25:01,079 --> 00:25:03,000
love to talk Yankees. So he had to get those two.

486
00:25:03,519 --> 00:25:05,759
Get those two out of the way, let's see if

487
00:25:05,759 --> 00:25:12,119
we can find something that's actually worth playing here. Heading

488
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:16,400
back to the chat, all right, Danzo.

489
00:25:16,319 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: He says, I told you yesterday the Brewers last, same

490
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,759
reason the Padres. Oh, so he's kind of pointing out,

491
00:25:22,799 --> 00:25:24,759
ye have favorites on the holiday type days.

492
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,079
Speaker 3: Struggle. I don't know if what there is to that.

493
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,279
Speaker 1: I think it's just like I think favorites this time

494
00:25:31,319 --> 00:25:34,720
a year a little bit struggle, because Brian, do you

495
00:25:34,759 --> 00:25:37,440
think the grind of one hundred and sixty two games

496
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,960
by this point in the years is somewhat of an equalizer?

497
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,880
Is that why we're seeing some of these favorites drop games.

498
00:25:43,519 --> 00:25:46,920
I'm just trying to sort of add something like actionable

499
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:48,039
to the comment that was made.

500
00:25:48,839 --> 00:25:52,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't excuse me. All the teams that are

501
00:25:52,559 --> 00:25:55,559
fighting for the playoffs, they've been fighting hard and now

502
00:25:55,559 --> 00:25:59,119
they're in the position where they will make the playoffs

503
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,559
or they won't. So if you get the teams that

504
00:26:01,599 --> 00:26:04,039
are going to make the playoffs, I would expect them

505
00:26:04,079 --> 00:26:05,960
to struggle the rest of the way because they're not

506
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,920
going to need to play the starters as often and

507
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,680
you're going to get more of a chance to to

508
00:26:11,759 --> 00:26:15,799
go against weaker lineups. In that regard, a lot of

509
00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:18,400
the teams that are out of the playoffs, they haven't

510
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:22,440
had those intense innings, especially from a pitching staff where

511
00:26:22,519 --> 00:26:25,440
they you know, they're they're not in these games, like

512
00:26:25,599 --> 00:26:27,559
take a look at like Houston. Their offense has been

513
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,440
struggling for so long. They've got to win these games

514
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,799
three to two. So there's a lot of pressure on

515
00:26:32,839 --> 00:26:35,599
the on the bullpens and the pitchers for those teams

516
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,079
because they're in it every day. But you get a

517
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,000
team the Angels, some other teams, you know, the A's

518
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,960
that they haven't been in the playoff race for most

519
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,079
of the season or fall of the season, and they

520
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,640
don't have to worry about that. They they're they're they've

521
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,960
got less high impact innings on their starters and their bullpens.

522
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,880
So those are teams that I'm looking to play on

523
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,119
as the season goes on here and for the Holiday.

524
00:27:01,559 --> 00:27:03,200
That's the first time I've ever heard that, so I

525
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:04,680
don't have any information on that.

526
00:27:06,839 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 4: You know, these guys don't know that it's a holiday.

527
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,519
These guys are in such a grind. They don't know

528
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,599
Labor Day, Memorial Day. The only holidays they know is

529
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,519
the holidays that are on the off season because to them,

530
00:27:18,039 --> 00:27:21,559
it's road or home. Road or home. They don't they

531
00:27:21,599 --> 00:27:25,799
don't know it's Labor Day. They don't care. So even

532
00:27:25,839 --> 00:27:27,759
the bad teams who are out of the playoffs, they're

533
00:27:27,759 --> 00:27:30,279
trying there thinking about next year's contract. These guys are

534
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,240
human beings. They want to keep their job. The average

535
00:27:33,279 --> 00:27:36,440
employment in MLB is is less than seven years. It's

536
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,880
probably less than six years. So these guys want to

537
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:43,359
want a contract, you know. I think the grind that

538
00:27:43,519 --> 00:27:46,039
is an equalizer towards the very very end of the

539
00:27:46,079 --> 00:27:50,559
season among teams that are in the same situations. But

540
00:27:51,279 --> 00:27:53,119
good teams and bad teams, I don't know if there's

541
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,400
there's a lot of difference as far as games played.

542
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 1: Just to wrap up his comment, I will say this,

543
00:27:58,839 --> 00:28:01,519
like having having to play a bunch of day games

544
00:28:01,519 --> 00:28:04,480
on a Monday is certainly not what these teams typically do.

545
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,000
Like Monday oftentimes is either a night game or a

546
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,279
travel day, so like that definitely could have something to it.

547
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,920
You had a lot of teams maybe playing a second

548
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,440
day game. It was a weird scheduling spot because how

549
00:28:17,799 --> 00:28:20,440
often do you see Major League Baseball teams playing day games?

550
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,960
Afternoon games on a Monday doesn't happen very often, So

551
00:28:23,599 --> 00:28:27,000
you know, might maybe something to that. I will sort

552
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,920
of stay on this same topic here and go to

553
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,640
a game that Travis acts asked about. I know who

554
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:36,359
he likes here because he commented on our replay yesterday,

555
00:28:36,559 --> 00:28:39,319
which again that's always up on the wager Talk YouTube channel,

556
00:28:39,359 --> 00:28:40,240
So go drop a comment.

557
00:28:40,279 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 3: We'll try to get to it in the show. I

558
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,839
know Travis is looking at the Pirates today. So back

559
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,480
to Brian Leonard, this is kind of fits that dichotomy

560
00:28:48,519 --> 00:28:50,759
of the Dodgers. They're in the playoffs.

561
00:28:51,559 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: Whether they're gonna win their division or not still to

562
00:28:53,759 --> 00:28:56,160
be determined, but they're in against a team that's been

563
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:57,359
out for a long time.

564
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,279
Speaker 3: Is there you know what? Is there enough of an

565
00:29:01,319 --> 00:29:03,960
equalizer here to look toward the Pirates? Is the question?

566
00:29:04,079 --> 00:29:05,920
Dodgers Pirates at PNC Park tonight.

567
00:29:07,599 --> 00:29:10,599
Speaker 2: Yeah. I fully understand where he's going on this, and

568
00:29:10,599 --> 00:29:15,079
he's been a great contributor to the to our program.

569
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:19,039
I really appreciate it. It goes in after on the replay

570
00:29:19,079 --> 00:29:21,839
and talks a lot about that kind of stuff. So

571
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,519
we really appreciate him being a member. A lot of

572
00:29:24,559 --> 00:29:28,119
great guys out there, a lot of your fellow sports

573
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:32,000
betters out there. We really appreciate Kershaw. Lefty on the

574
00:29:32,079 --> 00:29:36,759
road with Kik going for Pittsburgh, and we're looking at

575
00:29:36,799 --> 00:29:40,279
about a one one sixty five for the Dodgers in

576
00:29:40,359 --> 00:29:44,400
eight and a half to the under here. Clayton Kershaw

577
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,119
has now got eighty eight innings on the season after

578
00:29:47,279 --> 00:29:50,960
only having thirty last year. Twenty twenty three finished with

579
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,480
one thirty one. Uh, he's been really good this year.

580
00:29:55,559 --> 00:30:00,559
See he's surprised me based on his outputs point six

581
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,720
ARA but expected three point eight one whip one point

582
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,920
one point five, barrel rate ninety fourth percentile, walk grade

583
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,839
eighty fifth, ground ball right eighty fifth. Those are pretty good.

584
00:30:11,839 --> 00:30:14,640
But when you take a look at the actual pitch

585
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:19,160
is thrown, do you have some concern? Fastball velocity second percentile.

586
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,519
We knew that was going to happen. The guy's thirty

587
00:30:21,519 --> 00:30:24,079
seven years old. He's thrown over twenty eight hundred Major

588
00:30:24,119 --> 00:30:28,160
League ginnings. He throws the four seamer thirty five percent

589
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,000
of the time at eighty nine miles an hour normal

590
00:30:31,079 --> 00:30:33,079
left he's are at ninety three point one. So he's

591
00:30:33,079 --> 00:30:35,160
got to beat him from other way, and he's not

592
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,960
doing it from his fastball. His strikeout percentage, he's only

593
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:42,720
in the eleventh percentile part hit rate twenty fifth. He's

594
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,240
been avoiding that a lot because he's just a smart

595
00:30:45,279 --> 00:30:49,759
guy and he's a veteran pitcher. But he's pitching over

596
00:30:49,799 --> 00:30:51,799
his head. He's pitched over his head all season long.

597
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:57,240
I'm sure they may use him come to playoffs, maybe

598
00:30:57,359 --> 00:31:00,279
because he's struggled in the playoffs in the past. I

599
00:31:00,319 --> 00:31:01,960
hope they give him a chance to start because I

600
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,200
small sample size if you ask me, but even coming

601
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:06,920
out of the bullpen, I think that would be pretty

602
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,839
impressive for him. Carmen Maltinski three point eight sixty ra

603
00:31:11,039 --> 00:31:13,240
four point four to four expected one point three to

604
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:18,440
two whip a little bit high there. It's fastball velocity

605
00:31:18,519 --> 00:31:21,839
is pretty good seventy six percentile walker eight seventy eighth,

606
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,960
barrel rate seventy three. He has been pretty good for

607
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,079
the Pirates He's only thrown eighty four innings on the season,

608
00:31:28,119 --> 00:31:31,440
but it's gradually gone up fifty last year, thirty six

609
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:36,680
the year before. Because of Pittsburgh's success with the stars

610
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,319
they've had and all the talent they've gotten. After all

611
00:31:39,319 --> 00:31:42,880
these years of being lousy, this guy's being overshadowed. He's

612
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,839
not that bad of a pitcher. And so I'm kind

613
00:31:45,839 --> 00:31:48,400
of in the agreement that there's, yes, there may be

614
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,279
a little bit value here on the home underdog Pirates

615
00:31:53,519 --> 00:31:58,319
looking to fate Kershaw slately and with the Dodgers we

616
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,839
talked about that before, where they play divisional rivals, Yeah,

617
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,200
those are important games. When they play other teams like

618
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,440
the Pirates or go to the American League, not as much,

619
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,559
so I could say I won't be evolved, but I

620
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,039
fully understand why anybody would want to take the Pirates

621
00:32:14,039 --> 00:32:16,680
here that you can get those upwards of or excuse me,

622
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,519
plus one fifty in some places, but basically a one

623
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,920
forty in that range not a bad bet on the Pirates.

624
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 4: So looking through this game, one thing strikes me. Milazinski

625
00:32:30,559 --> 00:32:34,160
in his last nineteen starts has not thrown one pitch

626
00:32:34,279 --> 00:32:37,279
in the fifth inning. So I would take a look

627
00:32:37,279 --> 00:32:39,720
at that and say, okay, well, if he's backed by

628
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,359
a terrible bullpen, let's take the other team's team total.

629
00:32:42,599 --> 00:32:47,079
So I run the numbers, and Pittsburgh's bullpen is ranked

630
00:32:47,079 --> 00:32:50,359
six in MLB in current form, So they're performing really well.

631
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:53,839
I'm not saying they're the six most talented bullpen. I'm

632
00:32:53,839 --> 00:32:58,079
saying that in the last current form, last month's week

633
00:32:58,799 --> 00:33:02,599
ten days, performing really well. The Dodgers' bullpen is not

634
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:08,119
their rank sixteen according to my numbers. One note on Kershaw,

635
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:13,279
he's allowed what he's allowed four earned runs in his

636
00:33:13,359 --> 00:33:16,039
last six starts. He's pitching amazing, but yeah, how long

637
00:33:16,079 --> 00:33:19,880
is it going to last? And he's gone He's finishing

638
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,839
five innings in almost every start, so how long is

639
00:33:22,839 --> 00:33:25,720
it going to last? And also Brian mentioned they do

640
00:33:25,799 --> 00:33:29,519
want to leverage him in the playoffs, so they might

641
00:33:29,559 --> 00:33:31,720
want to they might want to pull him early to

642
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:37,400
rest him a little bit, you know, I mean, make

643
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,960
it real simple. We got a sixty one win team

644
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,920
against a seventy eight win team, so obviously the seventy

645
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,400
eight win team is more talented. I don't think anyone's

646
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:49,640
going to argue that. So the cerebral me says, you

647
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:53,359
gotta bet the Dodgers, but run the numbers. The Pirates

648
00:33:53,680 --> 00:34:00,400
are are performing better at almost every statistic, including including hitting,

649
00:34:00,839 --> 00:34:03,440
which is amazing. I got the Pirates in the current

650
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,079
forum ranked thirteen in hitting, or I got the Dodgers

651
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,760
rank twenty two. A lot of that has to do

652
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,639
with the competition that they've been facing, and if they

653
00:34:11,639 --> 00:34:13,800
have one game where they score thirteen runs, it's going

654
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,960
to skew the stats a little bit, but overall, the

655
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,800
Pirates are better than plus one point fifty. I agree

656
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,400
with Brian here. I'm not gonna bet it, though, No way,

657
00:34:23,559 --> 00:34:28,239
no way am I going to take a what are

658
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,239
they sixty one win team over seventy eight win team?

659
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:35,440
No way? And the way Kershaw's pitching, you know, I'm

660
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,199
more of a guy who rides the streak until it ends,

661
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,039
and I would rather ride Kershaw's streak until it ends.

662
00:34:41,039 --> 00:34:43,199
But I can't bet the Dodgers either, because all my

663
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,119
numbers love the Pirates here, so I'm kind of stuck.

664
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, this might end up on I think there's a

665
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:55,559
Twitter account that's like things that proceed unfortunate events. But

666
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:57,800
I am a man of my word, and I said,

667
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,360
the Pirates are I said, the Pirates going to be

668
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,880
a great bet in September. Wait till September comes around.

669
00:35:03,039 --> 00:35:05,400
They bring some of these guys up. They now have

670
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,559
a lot of their young pitching in Tokyo. Brandon, you said, wow,

671
00:35:08,559 --> 00:35:11,519
they're bullpen six overall in Major League Baseball. Well, when

672
00:35:11,559 --> 00:35:13,599
you have Bubba Chandler throwing four innings out of a

673
00:35:13,639 --> 00:35:16,639
bullpen on a regular basis, that's going to improve your

674
00:35:16,639 --> 00:35:20,559
bullpen numbers. And you talked about Mazinski not really going

675
00:35:20,559 --> 00:35:23,360
into the fifth inning, that's by design. He's not really

676
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,519
a guy that's going to be like a six to

677
00:35:25,599 --> 00:35:26,440
seven inning starter.

678
00:35:26,599 --> 00:35:28,199
Speaker 3: He's more of open basically.

679
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:30,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I always felt like he was gonna be

680
00:35:30,519 --> 00:35:33,559
a good long reliever. He's used at Indianapolis as a

681
00:35:33,559 --> 00:35:35,800
starter often. I think you can use him as a starter,

682
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,039
but I don't know that his strength is going to

683
00:35:38,119 --> 00:35:41,360
be like pitching six seven innings. And credit to the Pirates.

684
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:43,440
I can't believe him saying that I'm giving them credit

685
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:47,119
for how they've managed something because this because I truly believe,

686
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,519
I truly believe if there were more competent folks in

687
00:35:51,599 --> 00:35:55,199
place that the Pirates would probably be ten games over

688
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,039
five hundred with the talent they have on their roster. Like,

689
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,239
I know, they lack offense a little bit, and that's

690
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,679
an issue, but I mean we the Guardians lack offense,

691
00:36:03,679 --> 00:36:05,639
and the Guardians are on the fringe of a playoff race.

692
00:36:06,079 --> 00:36:11,760
The Pirates lack offense yet have absolute stud pitchers. And

693
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,440
what are we coming into today, Brian? What's the Pirate

694
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,239
trucker right now? I just want to make my point here.

695
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,039
There's six, Okay, So.

696
00:36:21,199 --> 00:36:23,679
Speaker 2: I do want to go out. They're thirty nine and

697
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,960
thirty at home. We've talked about them being bad and

698
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,679
the out. They've only won twenty two games on the

699
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:29,880
road all season. So if you're gar going to bet

700
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:31,800
the Pirates, the best place to do it is at home.

701
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,119
Speaker 1: So I am going to bet the Pirates, and I

702
00:36:35,119 --> 00:36:37,000
I'm feeling pretty good today. I'm probably going to have

703
00:36:37,039 --> 00:36:39,079
more than one Major League Baseball play. That's a that's

704
00:36:39,119 --> 00:36:40,719
a client play. So I'm just gonna do it. I

705
00:36:41,039 --> 00:36:43,280
just I just punched this in for four percent. I'll

706
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:45,400
use it as my parlay leg My play is Pirates

707
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,400
plus one and a half, like mining that minus one

708
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,559
ten range I think that's I think that's actually a

709
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,119
crazy value to be able to get the run here

710
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,719
for like minus one ten, minus one fifteen, depending on

711
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,920
your book. That's where it is right now. I'll let

712
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:04,320
Brian give us a consensus price for the parlay, but

713
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,320
I think anything in that range is is tremendous value

714
00:37:07,679 --> 00:37:09,320
for a Pirates team that I really think is going

715
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,719
to be the spoiler in September. And that's what I

716
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,599
That's why I say, you can you know, you can

717
00:37:13,679 --> 00:37:16,920
Cold Takes exposed me in three weeks if they play terrible.

718
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:18,920
But I don't think they're going to. I think the

719
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,360
Pirates are going to be the spoiler of the league

720
00:37:21,679 --> 00:37:25,280
this month. And I just want to make the point here.

721
00:37:25,599 --> 00:37:27,559
Speaker 3: I look at like you look at WRC plus, and

722
00:37:27,599 --> 00:37:29,360
you look at like, look at the Guardians.

723
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 1: Okay, this is a team that's been near the bottom

724
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,960
of the league WRC plus all season, just like the Pirates.

725
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:39,280
They're sixty eight and sixty eight, right, the Pirates are

726
00:37:39,519 --> 00:37:41,960
sixty one and seventy seven. And it's just it's just

727
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:46,079
because the Guardians have a much better they just manage

728
00:37:46,119 --> 00:37:48,840
that everything is managed better in that organization. I'm not

729
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,599
saying that they don't do things wrong too, but everything's

730
00:37:51,639 --> 00:37:55,480
managed better than Pittsburgh, who's essentially like the Pirates have

731
00:37:55,559 --> 00:37:57,760
no excuse. I mean, they have a generational talent in

732
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,760
Paul schemes, they have like four other really good starting

733
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,760
pitching options, they have great bullpen arms, and there are

734
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,400
some talented guys, and they've essentially managed their they they've

735
00:38:07,519 --> 00:38:10,360
When I say managed, I mean the front office has

736
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,280
managed them into obscurity this year thirteen games out of

737
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:15,880
the wildcard race, which is insane for the for the

738
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,199
pitching talent that's on that team. But I think they're

739
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,559
I think they're undervalue now and so I'm gonna I'll

740
00:38:21,559 --> 00:38:24,440
probably bet them all month when when the spot presents

741
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:26,519
itself and I think that this is a spot that's

742
00:38:26,559 --> 00:38:31,480
worth the worth jumping in so Pirates, it absolutely is,

743
00:38:31,559 --> 00:38:34,920
and it's a four percenter for me TV. So say

744
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,719
that again for the people in the back that say

745
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,880
we don't give enough picks out on the show. I

746
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:40,800
could have sold that one for well, I guess for

747
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,199
five dollars because it's Tuesday, but I'm.

748
00:38:43,039 --> 00:38:44,519
Speaker 3: Giving it to you for free, and I'm probably going

749
00:38:44,559 --> 00:38:47,519
to have another one up for five dollars. So Craig

750
00:38:47,639 --> 00:38:49,840
just providing the value today is really what it what

751
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,639
it is here? Brian, what's the uh? What's the price

752
00:38:52,679 --> 00:38:53,519
on pirates? There?

753
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 2: I see a lot of one fifteen some mon twenty

754
00:38:56,599 --> 00:38:57,800
is but let's go one sixteen?

755
00:38:59,079 --> 00:38:59,559
Speaker 3: Perfect?

756
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the I think the back end when

757
00:39:02,519 --> 00:39:04,639
I was punching that in maybe gave me plus maybe

758
00:39:04,679 --> 00:39:07,280
gave me minus one ten. So like obviously booked to

759
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,920
book shopping around and might it might actually be moving

760
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,559
as we're doing this, because I put that in probably

761
00:39:12,599 --> 00:39:14,960
five ten minutes ago, and I do I wouldn't be

762
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,159
surprised one bit if the Pirates took some money today,

763
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,760
especially on that plus one and a half, because per

764
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,159
my numbers, that's not what it should be. And again,

765
00:39:24,679 --> 00:39:26,760
anything can happen on a given day. The Dodgers are

766
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:28,880
still a very good team. But how often have we

767
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:32,079
seen this Dodgers team go on the road in a

768
00:39:32,119 --> 00:39:35,800
spot like this against an inferior opponent and play down

769
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:36,159
to them.

770
00:39:36,199 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 3: I feel like they've done it all year.

771
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: Why rookies.

772
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 4: Swept, swept, and just.

773
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,199
Speaker 3: To hammer the point home, they just played the Diamondbacks,

774
00:39:46,199 --> 00:39:49,559
who I think that's enough of a rivalry to say

775
00:39:49,639 --> 00:39:51,599
that they could have a little bit of a letdown

776
00:39:51,599 --> 00:39:53,960
coming off that d Back series. I know Arizona's not

777
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,800
a Giants to them or a Padres, but that's been

778
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,679
a pretty heated series over the past I would say

779
00:39:59,679 --> 00:40:03,920
eight nine years Dbacks Dodgers, So I love the spot

780
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:05,000
for the Pirates. Go ahead, Brian.

781
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 2: Yeah. If you take a look at the the schedule

782
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:13,880
for the Dodgers, they just played Arizona, divisional rival right

783
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,840
before they they played Cincinnati, who at the time looked

784
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,440
like they were fighting for the playoffs, and San Diego.

785
00:40:21,079 --> 00:40:26,519
Now they're playing Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Colorado before they finished

786
00:40:26,519 --> 00:40:32,360
the season with San Francisco, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Arizona, and Seattle,

787
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,480
either divisional rivals or teams that they may face in

788
00:40:36,519 --> 00:40:40,719
the playoffs. So this next next ten days or so,

789
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:44,440
when they placed Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Colorado, it would not

790
00:40:44,519 --> 00:40:47,880
surprise me if they do not end up making money

791
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:50,000
for their clients. If you were to bet them every game,

792
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,719
you may be better off playing against them and getting

793
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,079
some plus because they're gonna be favorite just about every game.

794
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:58,960
So this is the time right now on the schedule,

795
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,280
where I'm I'll I'll be looking to bet against the

796
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,719
Dodgers today, maybe one of those days. We're losing a

797
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:06,800
little bit of value as it goes on because people

798
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,159
are coming in on Pittsburgh right now, but that's usually

799
00:41:09,199 --> 00:41:09,639
a good thing.

800
00:41:10,559 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I just wanted to point Steve Duke in

801
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:14,400
the chat makes it makes a point that I think

802
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:16,519
is good, but I want, I want to like just

803
00:41:16,599 --> 00:41:19,079
clarify it a little bit. Sharps don't hit one hundred

804
00:41:19,119 --> 00:41:22,119
percent nowhere near. Tailing sharps is always a bad idea

805
00:41:22,119 --> 00:41:24,559
of price chasing is what they do. Tailing them means

806
00:41:24,599 --> 00:41:28,039
weaker prices for you. Generally speaking, I would agree with that.

807
00:41:28,079 --> 00:41:28,320
Speaker 2: You don't.

808
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:31,280
Speaker 1: You don't want to just steam chase and constantly take

809
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:34,480
a worse number. But I don't think there's any problem

810
00:41:34,559 --> 00:41:37,880
with being cognizant, Like for me, right here I put

811
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:39,360
this in it was minus one ten.

812
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:41,599
Speaker 3: I do see it's moving a little bit right now.

813
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,079
Speaker 1: I don't think taking like a minus one fifteen on

814
00:41:44,119 --> 00:41:46,239
that plus one and a half bet, or even minus

815
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,920
one twenty is a bad bet by any means.

816
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 3: I do think if.

817
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:54,199
Speaker 1: You are regularly, regularly like taking thirty cents worse than

818
00:41:54,199 --> 00:41:56,880
what the sharp people took. Yeah, that's gonna be a

819
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,960
bad look long term, But like on a one off scenario,

820
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,840
I think it's it's good to just always evaluate the

821
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,679
information that you have. So it's like, Okay, I should

822
00:42:05,679 --> 00:42:08,119
probably hop in on pirates now if I like them,

823
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:10,639
because this might move a little bit. Maybe I lost

824
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,039
five cents, but I can live with that, and maybe

825
00:42:13,119 --> 00:42:15,719
maybe it was worth the five cents to know that

826
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,880
that's maybe where some respected money is. Everything's a case

827
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,480
by case basis, and I would say that this is

828
00:42:21,519 --> 00:42:25,519
as well. But yes, your your general point of do

829
00:42:25,599 --> 00:42:29,880
you want to just constantly chase thirty twenty five thirty

830
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,159
cents difference on the number, Yeah, that's gonna get you

831
00:42:32,199 --> 00:42:35,239
in trouble long term. Can you use it to maybe

832
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,039
like say, okay, I need to I need to move

833
00:42:37,039 --> 00:42:38,559
on this, I need to jump in now because this

834
00:42:38,639 --> 00:42:41,039
is where it's probably going. Yeah, I think that's fine,

835
00:42:41,039 --> 00:42:42,960
And if you do it within like five ten cents,

836
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:44,920
I don't think that's a bad thing at all. So

837
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,760
I just wanted to clarify that, and if you two

838
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:49,840
want to jump in on that, go ahead. But that

839
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:51,480
that's really I just saw that in the chat and

840
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:52,599
wanted to make that point.

841
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:56,159
Speaker 4: Yeah, I always Yeah, go ahead, Brian.

842
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:00,119
Speaker 2: It's a pendulum. The right number is right in the middle. Well,

843
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,760
you're either over here or you're over here, and that's

844
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,840
how you bet it. If you're over here, then you

845
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,320
bet this team or not you. So I'm looking at

846
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,760
my picture and the thing I'm screwing up it, but

847
00:43:11,119 --> 00:43:14,440
it bounces back. So if you make it like they

848
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,239
should be a plus one thirty four orts and you're

849
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,239
getting plus one forty, then you bet them. But that

850
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:21,800
once it gets past that number and you're only getting

851
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,079
plus one twenty, it's not worthy of But that the

852
00:43:24,119 --> 00:43:25,599
other side is probably worthy of a bet.

853
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 4: I never to what other people bet. It's just a distraction.

854
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,400
I just look at what the numbers are after I

855
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,559
bet something. I treat it like an ex girlfriend. I

856
00:43:35,599 --> 00:43:36,920
never look at it again.

857
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,639
Speaker 1: At Please, you're checking up on me. You know you're

858
00:43:40,639 --> 00:43:41,639
not checking up on those.

859
00:43:41,519 --> 00:43:44,559
Speaker 3: Ex girlfriend's TV on the Instagram seeing what they're doing.

860
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:49,760
Speaker 4: No way, anyway, don't They don't because nothing, nothing good

861
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:51,719
comes of that. An next girlfriend is never going to

862
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:53,360
come back to you. The only thing that's going to

863
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:58,199
come from that is jealousy. Don't actually I do not.

864
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 1: I don't think i've I've spoken to an X. Now

865
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:03,840
I've been in a relationship for like five years at

866
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:05,519
this point, so it's like, I don't think I've spoken

867
00:44:05,559 --> 00:44:09,159
to an X after it's ended ever, now that you

868
00:44:09,199 --> 00:44:09,679
say that.

869
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:10,039
Speaker 4: So.

870
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's I can't. I can't say that

871
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,000
that it's been different for me. But I will go

872
00:44:18,039 --> 00:44:20,239
to turn Uble Tommy real quick. I will go to

873
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,159
Turnbuckle Tommy real quick, because this has to be addressed

874
00:44:23,159 --> 00:44:25,039
because we all three of us sell picks and we

875
00:44:25,079 --> 00:44:27,199
do it right here on the wager Talk platform. And

876
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,639
I'm very conscious of this, and I know you guys

877
00:44:29,679 --> 00:44:31,760
try to be as well. He says, that's the problem

878
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:33,760
with buying picture not getting the same line as them.

879
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,199
Ninety percent of the time. It's all about line value.

880
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,239
So I'm going to say two things to that. One,

881
00:44:39,079 --> 00:44:40,880
that's why you do like the all access and you

882
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:44,880
get it right away, right because like if you, I mean,

883
00:44:45,119 --> 00:44:46,800
and I know that people can't be attached to their

884
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,960
phones and sometimes they're going to lose some value, but

885
00:44:49,039 --> 00:44:52,280
like I know, for me, if something moves considerably, I

886
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:54,559
almost always take the package down and I actually think

887
00:44:54,599 --> 00:44:57,440
wager talk's pretty good. I've had our bosses come in

888
00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:59,559
and be like, hey, that's moved, Like you can't sell

889
00:44:59,559 --> 00:45:00,000
that anymore.

890
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 3: So I know that we try to do that as

891
00:45:02,039 --> 00:45:02,840
good as possible.

892
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 1: But and then but at the same time, and I'm

893
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,760
gonna do maybe my maybe my best segue promo ever here,

894
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,639
Brian Leonard, because we have that all access seven day

895
00:45:11,679 --> 00:45:13,880
on sale right now. That's why you would do the

896
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:15,880
all access because as soon as I punch it in,

897
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,039
you see it and and really like and I run

898
00:45:19,039 --> 00:45:20,960
into this with the with the Triple A stuff. And

899
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,559
that's why I never I I have not, at any

900
00:45:23,599 --> 00:45:26,000
point this year put a brick up to sell a

901
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:29,559
minor league baseball play standalone because I know it's gonna move.

902
00:45:29,599 --> 00:45:31,639
So it's like, if you're on the all access, you

903
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,760
have the shot at it. And but but like we're

904
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:36,880
doing the best we can with that. But that's a

905
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:40,360
good point. It's very difficult, and we I know, we

906
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:44,000
try to really be conscious of that, but it's a

907
00:45:44,079 --> 00:45:45,559
it's a it's a point that needs to be made.

908
00:45:45,599 --> 00:45:47,280
And I also think that's why you pay for the

909
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:51,119
overall expertise. The explanation behind it. You know, at least

910
00:45:51,159 --> 00:45:54,840
for me, I feel like that's why we're we're selling

911
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:56,800
what we're selling, and I wanted to bring that up.

912
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 2: We all we also before I know, we're gonna lay,

913
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:04,519
but we also put up limits on you know, like today,

914
00:46:04,519 --> 00:46:06,760
I've got a four percent play in Major League Baseball

915
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,199
is my five dollars play, And I said, I have

916
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,800
it good. I think there's value up until this number.

917
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,639
So once it gets past that number, obviously, either we

918
00:46:15,679 --> 00:46:19,199
take it down or you don't want to play it.

919
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 3: All right, I'm gonna throw Oh, go ahead, TV.

920
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,639
Speaker 4: I agree with those sentiments. If you're a subscriber, you

921
00:46:27,639 --> 00:46:29,480
get our play right away, and the line is the

922
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,719
same as what we get if you get it later.

923
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:33,239
We do make parameters.

924
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, all right, Brian Leonard, I'm gonna I'm gonna

925
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,559
throw it to you. Give us a game that you

926
00:46:39,639 --> 00:46:41,280
might want to talk about, maybe one that you want

927
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:42,079
to put in the parliament.

928
00:46:42,519 --> 00:46:45,039
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll give you what I use in my free

929
00:46:45,079 --> 00:46:49,000
play today. That's the Baltimore San Diego game. It's got

930
00:46:49,039 --> 00:46:55,119
Wells against Darvish one sixty five maybe one sixty eight

931
00:46:55,559 --> 00:46:57,639
favor on Darvish right now, eight and a half to

932
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:01,880
the under, eight to the over, and this one the

933
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:06,239
reason I like Baltimore here. The reason why I like

934
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,800
them for the most part is I like the way

935
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:12,239
they're hitting. They've got the younger guys up now and

936
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:17,199
they're doing very well. Tyler Wells is coming back from injury.

937
00:47:17,599 --> 00:47:19,960
He's only been able to get in fifteen innings all

938
00:47:20,039 --> 00:47:24,599
season long, but I like him over all his career.

939
00:47:25,119 --> 00:47:29,280
The Ra's four point oh six with a one point

940
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:32,119
oh five whip so far this season five point eighty

941
00:47:32,119 --> 00:47:35,159
seven or the RA seven point sixty four, but keep

942
00:47:35,199 --> 00:47:37,840
in mind he's been hurt one point three seven whip.

943
00:47:38,639 --> 00:47:42,320
The reason I like it is because he's able to

944
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,039
come in. He's a fresh arm that they haven't been

945
00:47:44,079 --> 00:47:48,320
able to use all year long. And I talked about

946
00:47:48,559 --> 00:47:52,480
pitching in teams that have not had high, you know,

947
00:47:52,599 --> 00:47:54,800
high leverage innings. That's been the Orioles. They've been out

948
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,159
of it for a long time. And then he's going

949
00:47:57,159 --> 00:48:00,559
against you, Darvish here, and Darvish, I'm saying with a

950
00:48:00,559 --> 00:48:03,239
five point sixty six, a three point sixty six sixpected,

951
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,079
he's had a lot of bad luck, no doubt about it.

952
00:48:05,559 --> 00:48:08,280
One point one to one web. But you know he's

953
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,800
in thirty This is his thirteenth season, and he pitched

954
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:18,440
in the across the across the water, as they say

955
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,559
in Japan, for a long time, So those dings are

956
00:48:21,559 --> 00:48:23,840
getting up there. He's already thrown seventeen hundred innings in

957
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:27,320
Major League Baseball and he came over late. He's thirty

958
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,320
nine years old. And if you're looking at the Padres,

959
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:32,760
a lot of the guys that throw the big innings,

960
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:37,039
the scheme or excuse me, the ceases, the Darbishes, those

961
00:48:37,119 --> 00:48:40,280
kind of guys are struggling right now, and it's just

962
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,440
they're piling up. His chase rate is only in the

963
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:45,519
six percentile. He can't get players to swing for the

964
00:48:45,519 --> 00:48:48,599
same pitch as they got when he was younger. Every

965
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,159
actual ve loss, he's been great ninetyeighth percent of hard

966
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:56,079
hit ray eighty eighth percentile. But he's got eight different pitches,

967
00:48:56,199 --> 00:48:58,880
which is what I like about him. So if something's

968
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:01,199
not working, you can always go to something else. But

969
00:49:01,199 --> 00:49:04,960
the Padres right now are struggling. They're about two and

970
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,239
a half behind the Dodgers. Now. The Dodgers given them

971
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,639
every chance to take this division and they're just not

972
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:13,679
taking it. U San Diego, as I mentioned, you know,

973
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:17,679
they're eleventh and hitting over the last two weeks, and

974
00:49:18,159 --> 00:49:22,239
it's they've been very inconsistent. Baltimore is a team that's

975
00:49:22,679 --> 00:49:24,840
on their way up. They're seventeenth right now. They're hitting

976
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:26,679
a one o seven for give me one on four

977
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:30,320
WRC plus. So I just thought the line was too higher.

978
00:49:30,599 --> 00:49:33,519
It we're looking at. You know, there's some places out

979
00:49:33,519 --> 00:49:36,440
there in the one seventy five range on the on

980
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:39,480
the padres, I can't back. Then there's Baltimore has been

981
00:49:39,599 --> 00:49:41,599
very good to me the last week, scoring a lot

982
00:49:41,639 --> 00:49:43,880
of runs, have been getting them a good plus money prices.

983
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,559
I'll be back on them again today from a from

984
00:49:46,599 --> 00:49:49,559
an underdog standpoint, I think that game has the most

985
00:49:49,639 --> 00:49:52,239
value for an underdog on today's card, and that'll be

986
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:56,320
my part of the parlay I will play Baltimore. Looks

987
00:49:56,320 --> 00:50:01,440
like a census is about one seven. Let's take Baltimore

988
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:02,440
plus one forty seven.

989
00:50:03,119 --> 00:50:06,679
Speaker 3: Wow, there we go. Juice up those parleys. Love it

990
00:50:07,199 --> 00:50:07,679
go ahead to you.

991
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:10,239
Speaker 4: It means that means I can cheat and take a

992
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:11,119
really bad line.

993
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,119
Speaker 2: Okay, good, we've learned our lessons on that you don't

994
00:50:14,159 --> 00:50:14,480
want to do.

995
00:50:14,599 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, we have. Uh so it's five dollars Tuesday, guys,

996
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:19,880
go to Wayja Talk dot com and see what we have.

997
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:22,480
We will have free plays up to at least take

998
00:50:22,519 --> 00:50:25,400
the ten seconds to go to one of our three sites.

999
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:28,519
Take a look what we got Wayja Talk dot com,

1000
00:50:28,559 --> 00:50:35,599
click experts and we will be there. Yeah. Like Brian said, Darvis,

1001
00:50:35,679 --> 00:50:38,280
Darvis threw a lot of innings in Japan before he

1002
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:43,719
went to America. He was probably my favorite picture in

1003
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:47,000
Japan to watch so good. He was better than Otani

1004
00:50:47,079 --> 00:50:50,559
over here and they were on the same team. But uh,

1005
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:54,719
in America, obviously, Otani is outshining him, a younger guy

1006
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:59,280
and in his prime. But uh, Darvas is getting a

1007
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,559
little old and his stats are showing it. But you know,

1008
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:06,440
he's he ranks kind of middle in almost every category.

1009
00:51:06,519 --> 00:51:09,199
So basically, we like to use the term innings eater.

1010
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:11,800
He's an innings eater. He's not flashy, he's not gonna

1011
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:15,599
k ten guys per nine, but he'll get the job done.

1012
00:51:16,119 --> 00:51:18,719
He'll get a quality start half of the time he's

1013
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:22,320
out there, and he'll generally go five or six innings

1014
00:51:22,599 --> 00:51:25,320
and he'll give up three earned runs in five innings.

1015
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,920
Not great outing, but okay, so if the team can

1016
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:31,000
produce some runs, he can get you a win. Maybe

1017
00:51:31,039 --> 00:51:36,400
half of his starts so wells kind of scares me.

1018
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:40,000
He's given up five runs, three runs, three runs. I

1019
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:45,039
don't know how he's gonna do today. I still the

1020
00:51:45,079 --> 00:51:48,559
Padres Brian is exactly hit the head, hit the nail

1021
00:51:48,599 --> 00:51:50,800
on the head. I mean, the Padres had the lead

1022
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:53,239
over the Dodgers, they had a two was it two

1023
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:54,880
games or just one and a half games. They were

1024
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:56,719
one and a half games over the Dodgers like a

1025
00:51:56,719 --> 00:52:01,719
week ago, and they they barfed it away. They're losards

1026
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:05,559
right now. They're just losards. They can't They're playing like

1027
00:52:05,599 --> 00:52:08,440
garbage at the most critical time. But I still have

1028
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,559
their hitting in current form ranked five in Major League Baseball,

1029
00:52:11,599 --> 00:52:17,320
so they still can hit. Both bullpens pretty average talent.

1030
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:19,559
Whyse San Diego I think is a top two bullpen.

1031
00:52:19,599 --> 00:52:24,280
But they're getting injured and they're not playing well, and

1032
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:29,119
Darbish's starvish. He'll probably give up three earned in five

1033
00:52:29,199 --> 00:52:31,719
or six innings, and that's basically what you can expect

1034
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:36,880
from him these days. Overall, I might think about the

1035
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:39,800
Padres team total over because they're hitting so well. But

1036
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:45,559
there's too many X factors and this game could go

1037
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:47,480
this game could go either way. I don't know if

1038
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:49,559
the Padres are going to shape up and start playing

1039
00:52:49,639 --> 00:52:52,800
like a playoff contender. I mean, I actually thought they

1040
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:55,719
had World Series hopes when they were when they overtook

1041
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:57,320
the Dodgers. I thought they were just going to put

1042
00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:00,519
it in high gear and just you know, go, and

1043
00:53:00,559 --> 00:53:04,320
that they just laid an egg. Such a talented team though,

1044
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:07,039
But I can't go against the Padres here.

1045
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,480
Speaker 1: So Collin says, have it. Look, how as well has

1046
00:53:11,519 --> 00:53:14,599
been in rehab. He's actually been tremendous. I watched every

1047
00:53:14,599 --> 00:53:17,679
inning of his last two rehab starts. He was excellent.

1048
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,960
And and I'll point this out, the Orioles have been

1049
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:22,719
out of it for a while, so very similar to

1050
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,400
Kyle Bradish, they gave him a lot of time. Six

1051
00:53:25,559 --> 00:53:28,719
rehab starts like, they gave him more than enough time

1052
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:31,079
to sort of get back into the flow of things,

1053
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:33,760
work his way up from a couple of innings to

1054
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:37,719
throwing full starts like the last two starts at Triple

1055
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:40,480
A for him five and two thirds, six and a

1056
00:53:40,519 --> 00:53:44,000
third like there's gonna be no no pitch restriction, He's

1057
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:46,280
gonna be able to go his full allotment of pitches

1058
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:50,599
and and so yeah, total total numbers at Norfolk in

1059
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:53,760
August a two seven zero e RA and a one

1060
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:54,559
to twenty whip.

1061
00:53:55,199 --> 00:53:58,199
Speaker 3: He's been he's been solid. So I don't think you're

1062
00:53:58,320 --> 00:53:59,719
you know, you can expect Tyler.

1063
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not saying that he's like this elite arm

1064
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:06,719
by any means, but I wouldn't worry about anything injury

1065
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,559
related or the fact that like you're gonna get his best,

1066
00:54:09,599 --> 00:54:12,360
you're gonna get his full start right there. Only way

1067
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:14,639
I could play it is something Orioles related. So I'm

1068
00:54:14,679 --> 00:54:17,079
with Brian. I think he's he's right to sort of

1069
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,559
sort of target that value on the road. I always

1070
00:54:20,599 --> 00:54:21,920
kind of look to that plus one and a half.

1071
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,360
It's a little pricey in the minus one forty five range,

1072
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:26,480
So probably the better way to go is just to

1073
00:54:26,519 --> 00:54:29,119
take the plus odds, as Brian did in our parlay.

1074
00:54:29,559 --> 00:54:32,159
But the Orioles are are that team where it's just

1075
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:34,960
like they're they're very Pirates esque right now. A lot

1076
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:39,000
of young guys that come up, you know, they're they're

1077
00:54:39,119 --> 00:54:43,000
gonna probably be a good spoiler throughout the course of September.

1078
00:54:43,039 --> 00:54:47,119
Jeremiah Jackson's been awesome. It's a young team, so you

1079
00:54:47,159 --> 00:54:49,079
know they're there. They are a little bit hard to

1080
00:54:49,119 --> 00:54:52,239
trust on the road, but I like the talent there,

1081
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:52,559
and I.

1082
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:55,280
Speaker 3: Think they're very undervalue. So I'm with Brian. I'm liking

1083
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,719
the Orioles there. TV. You want to throw a game

1084
00:54:57,719 --> 00:54:58,760
out for us to talk about.

1085
00:55:00,119 --> 00:55:07,079
Speaker 4: Uh, A lot of people are asking for. Uh what

1086
00:55:07,119 --> 00:55:08,039
were they asking for?

1087
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:09,400
Speaker 2: Uh?

1088
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:11,199
Speaker 4: You know, on a second, I would like to talk

1089
00:55:11,199 --> 00:55:15,960
about Mariners Raced because you've got two really good pictures here,

1090
00:55:16,599 --> 00:55:20,039
and I'd just like to talk about that for a minute.

1091
00:55:20,079 --> 00:55:20,519
Speaker 2: What do we got?

1092
00:55:20,559 --> 00:55:22,039
Speaker 4: But that's not gonna be my parlay leg.

1093
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:25,280
Speaker 3: But you can add your you can add your parlay

1094
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:27,280
leg at the end, we'll go, We'll go Mariners raise

1095
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:29,079
Brian start us off Mariner's.

1096
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:34,800
Speaker 2: Race, Yeah, Maryland's raise. Whoa rass Mussen. That's what I've

1097
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:36,440
said a lot of times when I bet on Rasmus.

1098
00:55:36,519 --> 00:55:39,039
He has been very good for me. Uh, Brian wo

1099
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:43,039
and Drew Rasmussen. Uh, we've got woo about a one

1100
00:55:43,079 --> 00:55:47,440
ten favorite here, slight slightly slightly favorite I guess, uh,

1101
00:55:47,519 --> 00:55:50,679
eight to the and in this game Seattle and Tampa.

1102
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:53,000
Seattle's you know. You take a look at Seattle lately,

1103
00:55:53,039 --> 00:55:57,320
they have not played well. Uh They've gone five and

1104
00:55:57,440 --> 00:55:59,920
five at a time where Texas has been read hof

1105
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:02,360
for some reason. Right after Texas looked like they were

1106
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:04,480
out of it. Now they've got eighteen percent chance to

1107
00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:08,119
make the playoffs again. So Settle, we thought we had

1108
00:56:08,119 --> 00:56:09,639
it all locked up. They were going to be the

1109
00:56:09,639 --> 00:56:13,039
wildcard team, if not winning the division. But they've struggled

1110
00:56:13,039 --> 00:56:15,599
a little bit lately. In fact, on the season now,

1111
00:56:16,039 --> 00:56:19,039
despite the seventy three and sixty five record for the Mariners,

1112
00:56:19,039 --> 00:56:22,360
they only have a run differential plus seventeen. They should

1113
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:25,280
only really be one or two games over five hundred

1114
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:30,119
based on that run differential. So I love both these pitchers.

1115
00:56:30,719 --> 00:56:33,000
But it is in Tampa Bay, which is the minor

1116
00:56:33,079 --> 00:56:38,920
league ballpark, and we have seen some times where the

1117
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:41,480
offense gets the advantage there. But I'm going to be

1118
00:56:41,559 --> 00:56:44,320
very short on it since it's not I'm not involved here,

1119
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:49,039
like I expect the first five to go under, and

1120
00:56:49,199 --> 00:56:51,760
other than that, I'm passing on this game.

1121
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:56,320
Speaker 4: I think you got to take the race here just

1122
00:56:56,360 --> 00:57:00,679
because Drew Respire Drew Raspusson has been light out, and

1123
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:04,440
he's been especially lights out against these batters. Fifty two

1124
00:57:04,559 --> 00:57:07,719
at bats against, two twelve average against in a five

1125
00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:11,719
twenty nine OPS. That's more than two hundred points under

1126
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:15,000
what I consider the Mendoz aligned for ops. Brian Wu

1127
00:57:15,079 --> 00:57:19,000
has really struggled against these batters, actually, three forty five

1128
00:57:19,039 --> 00:57:22,840
average against an eight sixty two OPS against. So I

1129
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:27,960
think Tampa has the bullpen. Tampa's bullpen is in better form,

1130
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:31,599
got them ranked four in MLB. I got Seattle's ranked twenty.

1131
00:57:32,320 --> 00:57:35,679
Seattle's bullpen is much better than twenty in MLB, but

1132
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:39,639
not performing quite well right now, and I got both

1133
00:57:39,639 --> 00:57:45,920
lineups pretty comparable. Granted Seattle does have I think he

1134
00:57:46,039 --> 00:57:49,639
still is the home run king for now or did

1135
00:57:49,679 --> 00:57:52,199
Schwarber pass and I'm not sure, but they definitely have

1136
00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:56,079
the best catcher, the best hitting catcher in MLB, that's undeniable,

1137
00:57:56,480 --> 00:58:00,920
and him together with Suarez a dangerous combination but not

1138
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:06,880
performing right now. Give give give their catcher his home run.

1139
00:58:07,239 --> 00:58:11,000
I still think Tampa Bay will win this game. Not

1140
00:58:11,119 --> 00:58:13,719
a huge, huge confidence played, but that's the way I

1141
00:58:13,719 --> 00:58:14,599
would go in this one.

1142
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:20,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, I did a video for this game yesterday, gave

1143
00:58:20,119 --> 00:58:22,719
out the over it. It did get there in the end.

1144
00:58:22,719 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 1: It probably shouldn't have been as difficult as it was,

1145
00:58:25,519 --> 00:58:26,239
but there was.

1146
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 3: There was some runs in that one late.

1147
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:32,079
Speaker 1: I was tempted to kind of go back the other

1148
00:58:32,159 --> 00:58:35,800
way here, but I don't I was really I guess

1149
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:37,320
I would. It would have been naive to think that

1150
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:39,039
you would get an eight and a half in a

1151
00:58:39,079 --> 00:58:41,840
game with with Wu and Rastussen on the mount. That

1152
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:44,159
being said, like the fact that you're getting an eight flat,

1153
00:58:44,599 --> 00:58:46,239
I think I make it seven and a half for

1154
00:58:46,599 --> 00:58:49,360
an under, so like maybe some slight value on the

1155
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:52,440
under there. I also think i'd probably go the other

1156
00:58:52,480 --> 00:58:55,679
way I And again this is probably more due to

1157
00:58:55,719 --> 00:58:59,159
where I have the Mariners rated, but coming off of

1158
00:58:59,719 --> 00:59:03,639
yesdays sort of getting blown out, I don't know. I

1159
00:59:03,679 --> 00:59:06,320
still maybe I'm just too high on this Mariners team

1160
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:09,000
and that that could be you know, that that could

1161
00:59:09,039 --> 00:59:11,320
be a thing. I feel like they were one where

1162
00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:13,239
I was ahead of the curve on them. They sort

1163
00:59:13,239 --> 00:59:16,039
of came out and took the division lead over there,

1164
00:59:16,639 --> 00:59:19,480
and since they just haven't played as well, but I

1165
00:59:19,559 --> 00:59:23,000
have them rated like significantly higher than the race, which

1166
00:59:23,039 --> 00:59:26,280
is which is maybe maybe I'm wrong with that. My

1167
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:29,239
numbers like the Mariners, but my gut is telling me, like,

1168
00:59:31,039 --> 00:59:32,559
I don't know, you don't want to do it, you

1169
00:59:32,599 --> 00:59:33,880
know what I mean? Like, so this is one I'm

1170
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:37,239
probably gonna have to pass on because again, my numbers

1171
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:40,320
like the Mariners. I personally like WU and I'm like, okay,

1172
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:42,480
I'm getting the what I consider to be the better

1173
00:59:42,519 --> 00:59:45,800
team minus one oh five, minus one ten. But man,

1174
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,719
they just they had nothing last night and they got

1175
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,159
blown out. And we saw it with the Mariners in

1176
00:59:51,159 --> 00:59:54,239
that Philly series where they kind of just dragged on

1177
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:57,239
the road and and and it permeated throughout the series,

1178
00:59:57,320 --> 00:59:59,239
and I'm having flashbacks to that.

1179
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 3: So I don't know.

1180
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:02,519
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can get into this one tough,

1181
01:00:02,559 --> 01:00:05,360
tough game. We'll be again another one that's that's gonna

1182
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:07,159
be great to watch, but I don't know if I

1183
01:00:07,199 --> 01:00:10,119
can bet anything in that game. TV, Do you know

1184
01:00:10,119 --> 01:00:12,280
what you want to use to close out this this parlay?

1185
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:12,519
Speaker 2: Here?

1186
01:00:13,199 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 4: I do, and don't throw tomatoes at me, but we've

1187
01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:20,000
got the number five MLB starter in all of MLB

1188
01:00:20,199 --> 01:00:23,239
going against the worst team in MLB. Gotta take the

1189
01:00:24,039 --> 01:00:31,280
Giants here minus two twenty five for a parlay leg Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay,

1190
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:33,599
go ahead, give me the tomatoes.

1191
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:37,840
Speaker 3: What hey, I like it. I decided yesterday that I'm

1192
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:39,880
back in on the Giants a little bit, especially I

1193
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:43,440
think they sweep this series. So I'm no tomatoes coming

1194
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:43,840
from here.

1195
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 4: It's weird to think, but the Giants and the Diamondbacks

1196
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:51,119
still have playoff hopes. I mean slim, but still.

1197
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:54,079
Speaker 3: Hey, if they they can sweep in Colorado here, they're

1198
01:00:54,119 --> 01:00:56,400
They're at least in the conversation, I think they're going

1199
01:00:56,440 --> 01:00:59,119
to no no tomatoes coming from from this side of

1200
01:01:00,239 --> 01:01:02,920
Brian's baby. Brian's got a couple for you, I don't know.

1201
01:01:03,079 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, one point eight chance to make the play

1202
01:01:06,079 --> 01:01:09,199
one point eight percent chance to make the playoffs. They

1203
01:01:09,239 --> 01:01:11,760
are trying to finish the season with a winning record, though,

1204
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:13,960
and they're right at five hundred right now, so I

1205
01:01:14,039 --> 01:01:19,199
understand that. I just for myself, I don't like to

1206
01:01:19,199 --> 01:01:21,719
go against Freeland at home. He's the only guy that

1207
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:25,079
knows how to pitch in this ballpark in Marquez over

1208
01:01:25,119 --> 01:01:31,280
the years. But that said, yeah, Colorado's not a good team,

1209
01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:32,920
but they're much better team at home than they are

1210
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:35,119
on the road. I'm just trying to throw out something

1211
01:01:35,159 --> 01:01:35,719
the other way.

1212
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:38,599
Speaker 4: But I hear you. They got some scrappy young hitters,

1213
01:01:38,679 --> 01:01:44,239
but I think the Giants have more, so you can.

1214
01:01:44,119 --> 01:01:47,039
Speaker 2: Get them to enter in MLB a little bit less

1215
01:01:47,039 --> 01:01:48,400
than what you said, so you can get a two

1216
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:49,280
fifteen out there.

1217
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:54,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, I really you're telling me that a sixty what

1218
01:01:54,719 --> 01:01:57,239
are they? Sixty nine win team versus a thirty nine

1219
01:01:57,280 --> 01:02:05,519
win team is only minus two twenty. Wow? Yeah, so.

1220
01:02:08,079 --> 01:02:09,199
Speaker 3: TV, I'm I'm with you.

1221
01:02:09,239 --> 01:02:12,559
Speaker 1: I wrote about the I wrote about that game extensively yesterday,

1222
01:02:12,599 --> 01:02:14,840
and obviously I liked the spot and the price better

1223
01:02:14,920 --> 01:02:17,960
yesterday for the Giants, but I said I I won't.

1224
01:02:18,079 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 3: I really do think they probably sweep this series.

1225
01:02:20,599 --> 01:02:23,159
Speaker 1: I just I like what I've what I've seen from

1226
01:02:23,199 --> 01:02:25,280
them this weekend and into this series. And then they

1227
01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:27,039
did exactly what I expected.

1228
01:02:26,719 --> 01:02:29,239
Speaker 3: Them to do yesterday. They want and they want convince convincingly.

1229
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:33,519
Speaker 1: So Travis says easy, easy parlay leg Giants don't.

1230
01:02:33,599 --> 01:02:34,440
Speaker 3: I'm taking the easy.

1231
01:02:34,599 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 1: I never I never like to say anything is easy,

1232
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:39,880
But like I'm not, I'm not arguing with you about

1233
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:40,639
putting that in there.

1234
01:02:40,639 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 3: I'm fine. I really do think.

1235
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:46,519
Speaker 4: Last time I said the same spiel, I said, don't

1236
01:02:46,519 --> 01:02:48,280
hate me. I'm gonna take the easy way out. I

1237
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:56,119
lost it. It was it was the Dodgers.

1238
01:02:56,159 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 1: Nothing easy, But I do I do think your rationale

1239
01:02:59,039 --> 01:03:03,559
there is sound, and I expect the Giants to man

1240
01:03:03,679 --> 01:03:05,320
up and take care of business in Denver. I said

1241
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:08,239
it yesterday and I'm with you TV, so I'm fine

1242
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:09,719
with that. I'm fine with that.

1243
01:03:11,719 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 2: Five dollars Tuesday, five dollars Tuesday. I've got my four percent,

1244
01:03:15,599 --> 01:03:17,480
my best bet, probably the only play I'm gonna use

1245
01:03:17,519 --> 01:03:21,960
today up right now. Number two in the last three days,

1246
01:03:22,079 --> 01:03:25,519
last seven days, number one lifetime in Major League Baseball.

1247
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:29,079
What did you get a total on this parlay? Yet?

1248
01:03:29,280 --> 01:03:29,639
Speaker 3: I did?

1249
01:03:29,719 --> 01:03:31,679
Speaker 1: Yes, I'm gonna read it one more time right here.

1250
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:35,960
The three teamer for today is Giants money line Orioles

1251
01:03:36,119 --> 01:03:38,719
money line, and I'm gonna use Pirates plus one and

1252
01:03:38,719 --> 01:03:39,079
a half.

1253
01:03:39,159 --> 01:03:43,559
Speaker 3: So Tokyo Brandon, Giants money line, Brian Leonard Orioles money line.

1254
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:46,239
Speaker 1: Those will icely balance each other out right there from

1255
01:03:46,239 --> 01:03:48,320
a price standpoint, and then I'm going to go with

1256
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,159
Pirates plus one and a half. That three teamer is

1257
01:03:51,199 --> 01:03:54,880
plus five seventy six and I gave my that Pirates

1258
01:03:54,880 --> 01:03:56,599
plays a four percent and for me, I'm gonna put

1259
01:03:56,599 --> 01:03:58,480
it in the free play section if you're looking for

1260
01:03:58,519 --> 01:04:01,079
additional analysis on it. Not going to sell that one,

1261
01:04:01,719 --> 01:04:04,159
deciding to be generous today, even though I was two

1262
01:04:04,159 --> 01:04:06,559
and oh yesterday. But I'll find something else to sell.

1263
01:04:06,559 --> 01:04:09,119
Don't worry about that. But that is a client play

1264
01:04:09,119 --> 01:04:12,840
for me, Pirates plus one and a half a four percenter. Sorry, Brian,

1265
01:04:12,880 --> 01:04:14,199
did you have something else to add there?

1266
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:19,079
Speaker 4: All set five dollars Tuesday?

1267
01:04:20,239 --> 01:04:22,639
Speaker 3: Five dollars Tuesday, everyone will have a play up for

1268
01:04:22,679 --> 01:04:25,760
five bucks. Check out Everyone's page.

1269
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:28,519
Speaker 1: You can basically get all three of our plays, all

1270
01:04:28,519 --> 01:04:31,000
three of our five dollar plays for the less than

1271
01:04:31,039 --> 01:04:32,280
the price of like one place.

1272
01:04:32,320 --> 01:04:36,679
Speaker 3: So it's a great data to shop around on the site. Yeah,

1273
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:41,920
that's that's a wrap. Tomorrow morning, nine Eastern as every

1274
01:04:42,000 --> 01:04:43,920
as every day, we'll be here grinding and out. Have

1275
01:04:43,960 --> 01:04:46,320
a great Tuesday. Everyone, cash all your tickets. We'll see

1276
01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:47,000
you guys in the morning.